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Election Archive => 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: pa2011 on October 14, 2012, 06:31:38 pm



Title: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: pa2011 on October 14, 2012, 06:31:38 pm
 Romney 49. Obama 48. (Romney up 3, Obama down 2 since last PPP Poll  3 weeks ago)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html)


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Flordia
Post by: Beat-‘Em-All Beto on October 14, 2012, 06:33:12 pm
They should stealth pull out of Florida, or spend less. It's too expensive and Obama doesn't even really need it.


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Flordia
Post by: Marston on October 14, 2012, 06:33:34 pm
This is actually better for Obama than I was expecting. I was thinking Mitt would be 50%+. Guess not.


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Flordia
Post by: Ty440 on October 14, 2012, 06:35:36 pm
Actually a good result, Mitt Romney NEEDS FL Obama doesn't at all.

Also Obama getting 48% in FL is awesome, that means he is doing good nationally as FL leans right a couple of percentage points.


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Flordia
Post by: King on October 14, 2012, 06:38:59 pm
Democrats shouldn't be giving up this easy.  To be a 2nd President, Obama only needs 270, but to be a good 2nd term President, he needs at least 300 because he needs to pick up the House along the way if he has any hope of getting anything done.


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Flordia
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 14, 2012, 06:41:08 pm
Decent number, better than expected..


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Flordia
Post by: philly09 on October 14, 2012, 06:45:04 pm
Poll was conducted from October 12-14 with 791 likely voters.


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: Oakvale on October 14, 2012, 06:45:59 pm
They should stealth pull out of Florida, or spend less. It's too expensive and Obama doesn't even really need it.

WTF, because they're down one?


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: Likely Voter on October 14, 2012, 06:46:04 pm
Numbers seem about right. If the race were abouit tied nationally then FL should be -1. But I dont see why Obama would ever abandon FL


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Flordia
Post by: Bacon King on October 14, 2012, 06:46:10 pm
Democrats shouldn't be giving up this easy.  To be a 2nd President, Obama only needs 270, but to be a good 2nd term President, he needs at least 300 because he needs to pick up the House along the way if he has any hope of getting anything done.

I agree that Obama shouldn't be conceding Florida just because he's within the margin of error; that's a bit silly of an argument for everyone to be making here.

However, no matter how well Obama does, the numerous post-redistricting GOP gerrymanders across the country still make retaking the House an extremely difficult proposition.


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: Beat-‘Em-All Beto on October 14, 2012, 06:53:03 pm
They should stealth pull out of Florida, or spend less. It's too expensive and Obama doesn't even really need it.

WTF, because they're down one?
Well not pull out, but don't spend as much. It's not necessary to get to 270, but it is for Romney. The Governor and Super-Pacs are planning on blanketing the airwaves the last month of the race. Obama should fill Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado with ads from here til November and lock Romney out of the electoral-college. And it gets him over 300, 303-235.


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: philly09 on October 14, 2012, 06:53:42 pm
North Carolina coming up soon.


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Flordia
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on October 14, 2012, 06:54:18 pm
They should stealth pull out of Florida, or spend less. It's too expensive and Obama doesn't even really need it.

It's a statistical tie. Pulling out also gives Romney room to hit Ohio and Virginia.


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Flordia
Post by: Brittain33 on October 14, 2012, 06:54:25 pm
Democrats shouldn't be giving up this easy.  To be a 2nd President, Obama only needs 270, but to be a good 2nd term President, he needs at least 300 because he needs to pick up the House along the way if he has any hope of getting anything done.

I agree that Obama shouldn't be conceding Florida just because he's within the margin of error; that's a bit silly of an argument for everyone to be making here.

However, no matter how well Obama does, the numerous post-redistricting GOP gerrymanders across the country still make retaking the House an extremely difficult proposition.

True but Florida is one of the few states where Obama could benefit House Dem candidates by driving up turnout in competitive districts. There's not much he can do in Virginia, North Carolina, or Ohio House districts by comparison.


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: morgieb on October 14, 2012, 06:58:25 pm
Somewhat better.


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Flordia
Post by: J. J. on October 14, 2012, 07:04:16 pm
They should stealth pull out of Florida, or spend less. It's too expensive and Obama doesn't even really need it.

It's a statistical tie. Pulling out also gives Romney room to hit Ohio and Virginia.

On this poll; the others are trending higher as well.

Obama needs to keep up the fight in OH; he still has a good shot at VA.


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Flordia
Post by: Brittain33 on October 14, 2012, 07:06:35 pm
They should stealth pull out of Florida, or spend less. It's too expensive and Obama doesn't even really need it.

It's a statistical tie. Pulling out also gives Romney room to hit Ohio and Virginia.

On this poll; the others are trending higher as well.

J.J., when you say a poll is trending higher, does that mean you expect any increase in Romney's numbers demonstrates momentum that leads to further increases that should be priced in?


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: Cliffy on October 14, 2012, 07:09:18 pm
PPP.......so Romney is up 5+ in Florida. Nothing new here, Obama's super pacs didn't pull out two weeks ago because their internals are showing Romney up by 1.......


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: JFK-Democrat on October 14, 2012, 07:11:43 pm
It would be a horrible move tactically to withdraw from Florida, not only would it free-up resources for Romney to compete in Ohio and Virginia; but it would shave a couple points off Obama's numbers nationally because some Democrats would become dispirited because they would assume that Obama cannot win the election and just stay home.

I actually think they should fight harder for Florida, force Romney and the SuperPACS to defend it until Election Day. Florida will not break more than 2-3% in either direction so its still essentially a tossup.



Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Flordia
Post by: J. J. on October 14, 2012, 07:19:46 pm
They should stealth pull out of Florida, or spend less. It's too expensive and Obama doesn't even really need it.

It's a statistical tie. Pulling out also gives Romney room to hit Ohio and Virginia.

On this poll; the others are trending higher as well.

J.J., when you say a poll is trending higher, does that mean you expect any increase in Romney's numbers demonstrates momentum that leads to further increases that should be priced in?

I mean that the other polls are showing that Romney has increased as well and even assuming a minor Democratic "house bias" from PPP (and I assume it is less than Nate Silver), it probably is higher.

Unless Obama is great Tuesday night, I'd say, hit OH and VA (and some of the smaller states). 

I was a big advocate of Kerry pulling out of FL in 2004 and moving to OH; it might have made a difference.

FL is nice, but the price of winning it is probably OH, VA, IA, WI, and maybe NV.


Title: FL: Public Policy Polling: Romney takes narrow lead in Florida post-debate
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 14, 2012, 07:21:20 pm
New Poll: Florida President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-10-14 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1220121014108)

Summary: D: 48%, R: 49%, I: 0%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_1014.pdf)



Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 14, 2012, 07:25:10 pm
FL is nice, but the price of winning it is probably OH, VA, IA, WI, and maybe NV.

Er... J.J., you realize this map is an Obama win, right?

()

In fact, if Obama wins Florida, he just needs one more swing state, even New Hampshire (the smallest one), and he's at or over 270.


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: pa2011 on October 14, 2012, 07:56:01 pm
Highly doubtful Obama would ever pull out of Florida, especially since the campaign keeps talking about how great their ground game is there and how good voter registration has been going And after raising $180 million last month, sort of doubt Obama is facing a cash flow problem? How much money can realistically be spent in Ohio?


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: Cliffy on October 14, 2012, 08:01:59 pm
So Dem LV will be 2 better than the state registration and 4 better than Republicans?  


Romney wins Independents by 8.
Republicans are 4% undecided compared to Dems1%, not likely.

Another skew is by race according to registration.
Hispanics according to state reg #s are 12%, PPP has 17% and has whites at 66% vs 69%.

D-41% (Current state reg #s are 39%)
R-37%
I-22%

Like I said Romney 5+, is conservative.


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 14, 2012, 08:03:53 pm
You know there's a difference between state registration and self-identification?


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: NVGonzalez on October 14, 2012, 08:07:38 pm
So Dem LV will be 2 better than the state registration and 4 better than Republicans?  


Romney wins Independents by 8.
Republicans are 4% undecided compared to Dems1%, not likely.

Another skew is by race according to registration.
Hispanics according to state reg #s are 12%, PPP has 17% and has whites at 66% vs 69%.

D-41% (Current state reg #s are 39%)
R-37%
I-22%

Like I said Romney 5+, is conservative.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37OWL7AzvHo


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: Cliffy on October 14, 2012, 08:09:28 pm
Yep. 


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: Minnesota Mike on October 14, 2012, 08:21:54 pm
Highly doubtful Obama would ever pull out of Florida, especially since the campaign keeps talking about how great their ground game is there and how good voter registration has been going And after raising $180 million last month, sort of doubt Obama is facing a cash flow problem? How much money can realistically be spent in Ohio?

Exactly. Money is not going to be a problem for either candidate, they both have more than they can effectively spend. What does bear watching is how where the candidates spend their time between now and the election. I could see Obama spending less time in Florida and North Carolina and more in Ohio, Colorado and Virginia.


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: Eraserhead on October 14, 2012, 09:49:16 pm
Not bad. The Midwestern firewall (OH+IA+WI) shall continue to receive the VIS treatment but Obama will never give up in Florida.


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: philly09 on October 14, 2012, 09:50:14 pm
Not bad. The Midwestern firewall (OH+IA+WI) shall continue to receive the VIS treatment but Obama will never give up in Florida.


What's VIS?


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: President von Cat on October 14, 2012, 10:07:00 pm
Not bad. The Midwestern firewall (OH+IA+WI) shall continue to receive the VIS treatment but Obama will never give up in Florida.


What's VIS?

Very Important State.

PPP has been better for Obama than for Romney as a whole this cycle, so I assume the gap is a bit wider than 1, maybe between 2-3 points? Either way, much better than that hack poll that showed a 7 point gap. Florida is winnable for either candidate.


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: J. J. on October 14, 2012, 11:30:48 pm


In fact, if Obama wins Florida, he just needs one more swing state, even New Hampshire (the smallest one), and he's at or over 270.

The problem is:

A.  He still might lose FL.

B.  He'd run a higher chance of losing additional states.


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 14, 2012, 11:36:12 pm
Gravis also has Romney +1 in Florida tonight.


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: King on October 15, 2012, 12:35:18 am
2004 Florida Exit Polls
Liberal 20
Moderate 47
Conservative 34

2008 Florida Exit Polls
Liberal 19
Moderate 47
Conservative 35

This Poll
Liberal 24%
Moderate 35%
Conservative 41%

srry this poll is wrong must reject  here are my numbers:

Obama 51.13
Romney 47.71


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: Spamage on October 15, 2012, 12:39:56 am
2004 Florida Exit Polls
Liberal 20
Moderate 47
Conservative 34

2008 Florida Exit Polls
Liberal 19
Moderate 47
Conservative 35

This Poll
Liberal 24%
Moderate 35%
Conservative 41%

srry this poll is wrong must reject  here are my numbers:

Obama 51.13
Romney 47.71

Please tell me you're not going to turn into a pro-Obama version of Ben Romney.......


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: King on October 15, 2012, 12:45:31 am
2004 Florida Exit Polls
Liberal 20
Moderate 47
Conservative 34

2008 Florida Exit Polls
Liberal 19
Moderate 47
Conservative 35

This Poll
Liberal 24%
Moderate 35%
Conservative 41%

srry this poll is wrong must reject  here are my numbers:

Obama 51.13
Romney 47.71

Please tell me you're not going to turn into a pro-Obama version of Ben Romney.......

pls my numbers are Based on the truth not False Hope like that of Romdumb media.


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: NVGonzalez on October 15, 2012, 12:51:53 am
2004 Florida Exit Polls
Liberal 20
Moderate 47
Conservative 34

2008 Florida Exit Polls
Liberal 19
Moderate 47
Conservative 35

This Poll
Liberal 24%
Moderate 35%
Conservative 41%

srry this poll is wrong must reject  here are my numbers:

Obama 51.13
Romney 47.71

Please tell me you're not going to turn into a pro-Obama version of Ben Romney.......

pls my numbers are Based on the truth not False Hope like that of Romdumb media.

()


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 15, 2012, 01:54:58 am
2004 Florida Exit Polls
Liberal 20
Moderate 47
Conservative 34

2008 Florida Exit Polls
Liberal 19
Moderate 47
Conservative 35

This Poll
Liberal 24%
Moderate 35%
Conservative 41%

srry this poll is wrong must reject  here are my numbers:

Obama 51.13
Romney 47.71

Please tell me you're not going to turn into a pro-Obama version of Ben Romney.......
He has an entire thread in the sub forum pinpointing exactly why using ideological shifts is infinitely more effective and useful than party shifts, and here he has thus taken that knowledge and applied it to these polls for a possibly more correct outcome. The fact that the numbers came out Pro-Obama is the way it is, but you can't really dispute that the logic of his procedure is fully sound.


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: Bacon King on October 15, 2012, 09:36:23 am
Hmm. This poll has Hispanics voting 50% Obama, 47% Romney; this is really odd because the 2008 exit poll recorded Hispanics as voting 57% Obama, 42% McCain and this fairly recent poll of Florida Hispanics done by Latino Decisions (http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/9513/4937/8995/Florida_Toplines.pdf) gave Obama a lead of thirty points (61 to 31, counting leaners).

I normally consider PPP to be one of the better pollsters out there-- they're surprisingly accurate, especially for a robodial operation-- but I think they have a big inaccuracy here. I remember they had a similar problem during Florida's primary as well, consistently showing Gingrich with a huge lead among Cubans when they ended up voting heavily for Romney. I haven't noticed these issues in any other state, even those with significant Hispanic populations. For whatever reason, it appears that PPP apparently sucks at polling Florida Hispanics?

But anyway, by replacing PPP's Hispanic breakdown with the breakdown of the Latino Decisions poll, I get the following numbers:

Obama 50%
Romney 46%
undecided 4%


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: krazen1211 on October 15, 2012, 09:45:20 am
But Romney has surged with Florida Latinos.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/10/fiu-hispanic-fl-voter-poll-obama-51-romney-44.html


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: opebo on October 15, 2012, 09:48:24 am
But Romney has surged with Florida Latinos.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/10/fiu-hispanic-fl-voter-poll-obama-51-romney-44.html

Yeah, I think that's right.  Which makes a 1% lead, given that fact, pretty weak.  However I do think he'll pull it out in the end.


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: ajb on October 15, 2012, 09:57:36 am
But Romney has surged with Florida Latinos.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/10/fiu-hispanic-fl-voter-poll-obama-51-romney-44.html
FWIW, the article notes that this FIU poll was the first-ever IVR poll specifically done of Florida Hispanics, and, as such, did not call cell phones. Latino Decisions used live callers. That may account for some significant part of the difference between polls.


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: Cliffy on October 15, 2012, 10:05:26 am
Until Malia ran me down last night, I had seen some of his posts and thought they were jokes with "his" numbers, and I'm not trying to be mean.  On first glance I'd have to say that his system is flawed more than just party ID and it's basically the same argument but even harder to tell how to slice and dice moderates.  I'll look deeper into it when I have time. 

2004 Florida Exit Polls
Liberal 20
Moderate 47
Conservative 34

2008 Florida Exit Polls
Liberal 19
Moderate 47
Conservative 35

This Poll
Liberal 24%
Moderate 35%
Conservative 41%

srry this poll is wrong must reject  here are my numbers:

Obama 51.13
Romney 47.71

Please tell me you're not going to turn into a pro-Obama version of Ben Romney.......

pls my numbers are Based on the truth not False Hope like that of Romdumb media.


Title: Re: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
Post by: Bacon King on October 15, 2012, 11:35:48 am
But Romney has surged with Florida Latinos.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/10/fiu-hispanic-fl-voter-poll-obama-51-romney-44.html

Hm, interersting. PPP's last Florida poll, from Sept. 23rd (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_923.pdf), had a Hispanic breakdown of 49% Obama to 47% Romney, so they didn't notice any shift.

I'm not sure the poll you linked to is necessarily accurate, though; it looks like it oversampled Cubans significantly: 47% of the respondents.

Here's the most recent Florida poll I could find where they asked about Cuban ancestry (http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/news/Marist%20FL%2010-12.pdf) (it was also done by live interviewers as opposed to robo-calls, dunno if that's the cause of the difference here). Across the last three runs of that Marist poll, Cuban's have always been just around ~35% of Hispanic voters.