Talk Elections

Obama 50 Romney 45.  Smaller lead than before, but O still up.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57536922/poll-obamas-lead-in-ohio-narrows/?tag=MaxDeep;leadHed (http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57536922/poll-obamas-lead-in-ohio-narrows/?tag=MaxDeep;leadHed)

Solid news.

Excellent.

Notoriously left leaning hack poll...lost all credibility when they had obama +10 in Ohio last time

They came much closer than Rasmussen in predicting Ohio in 2008

Wow:

Who won the second debate (Ohio likely voters)?

Obama 48%
Romney 27%
Tie 12%

Among Independents:

Obama 43%
Romney 29%

DOMINATING

I was listening to CBS radio news this morning, and the way the copy was written you'd think this was good for Romney. They stressed the change since their last poll, so it was about a double-digit lead carved in half.

The press has an interesting/odd agenda this time around.. if they're just boosting the 'horse-race' theme, they're about to overdo it.  Or perhaps they really favor Romney.

Yeah, seriously. The last poll they did was in September during Obama's absolute peak. It's supposed to be bad news for Obama that he is beating his 2008 margin in Ohio (probably the must win state of this race) while being tied nationally? Okay then...

Quinnipiac seems to almost always over-poll Dems.  I've always considered them like Rasmmussen as a lean toward one party. But if both are saying Obama is leading here, then that is good news, and the lead is probably about 3 points. About as good as can be hoped for in the circumstances.

Would krazey, cliffy, or peppy like to grace us with their wisdom regarding this poll?  

Good news. Romney basically can't win without OH & let's say NV.

So Obama's lead by "10" lol last month has closed to 5.....and yet the turnout model only changed from D+10 to D+9.  right......   If you get turnout of D+9 this time you will win, no-one is saying you won't with that turnout.  Good luck with that.

Oh yeah Romney gained one with independents and 6 with seniors (was down one now up 7), this poll is so believeable.

Republicans winning the enthusiastic gap by 10 and the sample is still D+9..........

At least you guys have good jokes.

Great news! Ohio continues to be lean Obama.

New Poll: Ohio President by Quinnipiac University on 2012-10-21 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3920121020015)

Summary: D: 50%, R: 45%, I: 1%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1810)

Once again the polls which include calling cellphones (NBC, CBS, CNN, SUSA, FOX) always tend to be better for Obama. This seems especially true in OH.

Another reason why I hate the media.

Obama leads by 5 in Ohio, matching his 2008 margin of victory.

How the media spins it: ROMNEY GAINING ON OBAMA IN OHIO!!!!!!!

Are you saying that I should just 'junk poll' half the front page like you libs do?

Great news!

Well, I guess that's one possible response you could have to polls that aren't 'great news!' for your candidate, sure.

Oh... my bad.  This isn't "great news"... shouldn't have asked ya.  sorry bud!

cliff, pepp?

But it doesn't make much sense to junk polls solely because the news isn't great. That's why we have many polls.

Of course it perhaps can be a different story if the junk poll does not line up with known facts on the ground.

Cliff already said something...

Oh he did.  My bad. 

Party ID, eh?  Duly noted. We'll see. 

Can you get off the Voter ID thing??? We have told you that lots of Republicans ID as Independents.

uhhh no.  I won't until I see an actual D+8 or > turnout on Nov 6th.  I know what you think, good luck with that.

For most people their view of how the election is going depends upon which sort of poll they wish to believe in key states (and that now means Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia).

In case you wonder why my estimate of how the election is going is inactive it is because I do not know who is right and who is wrong. I could rule out pollsters for advocacy organizations, internal polls selectively leaked, and polls associated with partisan interests. Some may be ill-suited to showing the realities of a statewide election, especially early polling. Some may understate the voting of ethnic minorities and young voters -- or exaggerate them.