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Election Archive => 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: pa2011 on October 22, 2012, 06:34:12 am



Title: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: pa2011 on October 22, 2012, 06:34:12 am
Obama 50 Romney 45.  Smaller lead than before, but O still up.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57536922/poll-obamas-lead-in-ohio-narrows/?tag=MaxDeep;leadHed (http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57536922/poll-obamas-lead-in-ohio-narrows/?tag=MaxDeep;leadHed)


Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: Brittain33 on October 22, 2012, 06:41:45 am
Solid news.



Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: Eraserhead on October 22, 2012, 06:49:02 am
Excellent.


Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: dirks on October 22, 2012, 06:49:30 am
Notoriously left leaning hack poll...lost all credibility when they had obama +10 in Ohio last time


Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: ChrisFromNJ on October 22, 2012, 06:53:53 am
Notoriously left leaning hack poll...lost all credibility when they had obama +10 in Ohio last time

They came much closer than Rasmussen in predicting Ohio in 2008


Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: Eraserhead on October 22, 2012, 06:56:39 am
Wow:

Who won the second debate (Ohio likely voters)?

Obama 48%
Romney 27%
Tie 12%

Among Independents:

Obama 43%
Romney 29%

DOMINATING


Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: muon2 on October 22, 2012, 07:01:41 am
I was listening to CBS radio news this morning, and the way the copy was written you'd think this was good for Romney. They stressed the change since their last poll, so it was about a double-digit lead carved in half.


Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: opebo on October 22, 2012, 07:03:04 am
I was listening to CBS radio news this morning, and the way the copy was written you'd think this was good for Romney. They stressed the change since their last poll, so it was about a double-digit lead carved in half.

The press has an interesting/odd agenda this time around.. if they're just boosting the 'horse-race' theme, they're about to overdo it.  Or perhaps they really favor Romney.


Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: Eraserhead on October 22, 2012, 07:13:12 am
I was listening to CBS radio news this morning, and the way the copy was written you'd think this was good for Romney. They stressed the change since their last poll, so it was about a double-digit lead carved in half.

The press has an interesting/odd agenda this time around.. if they're just boosting the 'horse-race' theme, they're about to overdo it.  Or perhaps they really favor Romney.

Yeah, seriously. The last poll they did was in September during Obama's absolute peak. It's supposed to be bad news for Obama that he is beating his 2008 margin in Ohio (probably the must win state of this race) while being tied nationally? Okay then...


Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: JohnCA246 on October 22, 2012, 08:12:42 am
Quinnipiac seems to almost always over-poll Dems.  I've always considered them like Rasmmussen as a lean toward one party. But if both are saying Obama is leading here, then that is good news, and the lead is probably about 3 points. About as good as can be hoped for in the circumstances.


Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: HokeyDood on October 22, 2012, 08:20:23 am
Would krazey, cliffy, or peppy like to grace us with their wisdom regarding this poll?  



Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: Tender Branson on October 22, 2012, 08:21:32 am
Good news. Romney basically can't win without OH & let's say NV.


Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: Cliffy on October 22, 2012, 08:36:38 am
So Obama's lead by "10" lol last month has closed to 5.....and yet the turnout model only changed from D+10 to D+9.  right......   If you get turnout of D+9 this time you will win, no-one is saying you won't with that turnout.  Good luck with that.

Oh yeah Romney gained one with independents and 6 with seniors (was down one now up 7), this poll is so believeable.

Republicans winning the enthusiastic gap by 10 and the sample is still D+9..........

At least you guys have good jokes.


Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 22, 2012, 08:46:16 am
Great news! Ohio continues to be lean Obama.


Title: OH: Quinnipiac University: Obama with Slight Lead in Ohio
Post by: Dave Leip on October 22, 2012, 09:07:25 am
New Poll: Ohio President by Quinnipiac University on 2012-10-21 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3920121020015)

Summary: D: 50%, R: 45%, I: 1%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1810)



Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: Likely Voter on October 22, 2012, 09:35:43 am
Once again the polls which include calling cellphones (NBC, CBS, CNN, SUSA, FOX) always tend to be better for Obama. This seems especially true in OH.


Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: old timey villain on October 22, 2012, 10:40:51 am
Another reason why I hate the media.

Obama leads by 5 in Ohio, matching his 2008 margin of victory.

How the media spins it: ROMNEY GAINING ON OBAMA IN OHIO!!!!!!!


Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: krazen1211 on October 22, 2012, 11:48:24 am
Would krazey, cliffy, or peppy like to grace us with their wisdom regarding this poll?  




Are you saying that I should just 'junk poll' half the front page like you libs do?


Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: Franzl on October 22, 2012, 11:50:32 am
Great news!


Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: Hugo Award nominee on October 22, 2012, 12:00:56 pm
Would krazey, cliffy, or peppy like to grace us with their wisdom regarding this poll?  




Are you saying that I should just 'junk poll' half the front page like you libs do?

Well, I guess that's one possible response you could have to polls that aren't 'great news!' for your candidate, sure.


Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: HokeyDood on October 22, 2012, 12:01:32 pm
Would krazey, cliffy, or peppy like to grace us with their wisdom regarding this poll?  




Are you saying that I should just 'junk poll' half the front page like you libs do?

Oh... my bad.  This isn't "great news"... shouldn't have asked ya.  sorry bud!

cliff, pepp?


Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: krazen1211 on October 22, 2012, 12:03:10 pm
Would krazey, cliffy, or peppy like to grace us with their wisdom regarding this poll?  




Are you saying that I should just 'junk poll' half the front page like you libs do?

Well, I guess that's one possible response you could have to polls that aren't 'great news!' for your candidate, sure.

But it doesn't make much sense to junk polls solely because the news isn't great. That's why we have many polls.

Of course it perhaps can be a different story if the junk poll does not line up with known facts on the ground.


Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: Northeast Rep Snowball on October 22, 2012, 12:06:37 pm
Cliff already said something...


Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: HokeyDood on October 22, 2012, 12:07:31 pm
Cliff already said something...

Oh he did.  My bad. 

Party ID, eh?  Duly noted. We'll see. 


Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: LiberalJunkie on October 22, 2012, 12:26:26 pm
So Obama's lead by "10" lol last month has closed to 5.....and yet the turnout model only changed from D+10 to D+9.  right......   If you get turnout of D+9 this time you will win, no-one is saying you won't with that turnout.  Good luck with that.

Oh yeah Romney gained one with independents and 6 with seniors (was down one now up 7), this poll is so believeable.

Republicans winning the enthusiastic gap by 10 and the sample is still D+9..........

At least you guys have good jokes.

Can you get off the Voter ID thing??? We have told you that lots of Republicans ID as Independents.


Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: Cliffy on October 22, 2012, 12:30:08 pm
uhhh no.  I won't until I see an actual D+8 or > turnout on Nov 6th.  I know what you think, good luck with that.


Title: Re: CBS News/Quinnipiac -- Obama +5 in Ohio
Post by: pbrower2a on October 22, 2012, 03:21:58 pm
For most people their view of how the election is going depends upon which sort of poll they wish to believe in key states (and that now means Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia).

In case you wonder why my estimate of how the election is going is inactive it is because I do not know who is right and who is wrong. I could rule out pollsters for advocacy organizations, internal polls selectively leaked, and polls associated with partisan interests. Some may be ill-suited to showing the realities of a statewide election, especially early polling. Some may understate the voting of ethnic minorities and young voters -- or exaggerate them.