Talk Elections

59-34 Romney

Political independents in Tennessee favor Romney by 68 percent compared to 22 percent for Obama. People with strong party affiliations stayed committed, as well, with 89 percent of self-described Democrats sticking with Obama and 95 percent of Republicans favoring Romney.

Democrats made up 28 percent of the survey, compared to Republicans at 30 percent and those calling themselves independents at 32 percent.

In another key election, respondents favored Republican Sen. Bob Corker by 59 percent to 21 percent for Democratic candidate Mark Clayton, who was disavowed by the state party because of his stance on gay rights. Twelve percent were undecided.

The poll surveyed 650 randomly selected people by telephone Oct. 16-21. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. It was conducted by Issues & Answers Network, Inc., rather than using MTSU students as was done previously.

http://www.tennessean.com/article/20121027/NEWS/310270009/Poll-shows-Mitt-Romney-wide-lead-Tennessee-especially-white-evangelicals

Holy crap, that is way different than what earlier polls have showed and would actually constitute a major swing against Obama versus 2008. Hmm.

Tennessee is a hellhole.  They can vote how they please. 

The other polls were flukes. Obama is going to suffer a huge swing here. If whites start voting the same way here they do in Alabama, things will get really ugly really fast.

The other polls didn't really fit in with the pattern of 2010 - some of the worst results for the Democrats anywhere - although who knows. This poll probably isn't up to much either.

Er, no.

TN might be single digits.

And Obama is probably winning Texas too.

These numbers out of the South make the national polls make sense...

On the other hand, Obama has a massive lead in states like New York, which offsets some of the gains Romney will make in the South and should be reflected by national polls as well.

Tennessee had one of the most republican shifts in the country in 10'. If you think it's going to be within 10 points there you're high and obviously haven't set foot in Tenn in a while.

Actually no, using 2008 as a baseline, if Obama maintains those leads in NY, IL etc, but performing like a normal Dem in the Midwest and the South turning hard(er) against him - then there's been a shift away from Obama, that isn't being compensated for.

Either way, the good folks of the South need to show the Tea Party the door. Otherwise, the South is just going to live up to its negative stereotypes.

New Poll: Tennessee President by Middle Tennessee State University on 2012-10-25 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4720121021164)

Summary: D: 34%, R: 59%, I: 0%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.tennessean.com/article/20121027/NEWS/310270009/Poll-shows-Mitt-Romney-wide-lead-Tennessee-especially-white-evangelicals?nclick_check=1)

It's the Rino's that are being shown the door, the tea party isn't going anywhere.  As a whole the movement is not extreme or embracing the types of elements the left would like to label it.

^^^^^^^

This

The RINO's, largely in the Northeast and Far West are becoming Democrats -- and there are few RINO's in the South except in places of mas Yankee settlement (like Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and maybe Greater Atlanta). The Tea Party is as extreme as ever, and it willingly does what tycoons, executives, and big landowners tell it to do. Barack Obama is a horrible match for Tennessee outside of Memphis, Nashville, and some college towns. He is the ultimate intellectual, cosmopolitan, and city-slicker; he has no idea of how to win in the rural South.

The Obama vote will be not much larger than the African-American vote in Tennessee.    

Is northern Kentucky part of the South? Our local county executive was accused by the Tea Party of being a RINO, and the Tea Party endorsed his Democratic opponent.

As a result, that was one of very few instances where I ever ended up voting for a Republican.

Huh. This may blow a hole in my theory. Hope Obama can at least break 40 here.

A basic 60-40 split seems about right here. There was one close poll some months ago that no one took seriously. I dont recall multiple out of whack polls. The Dem Party is dead here. Our senate candidate is a batsh**t crazy anti gay crusader who somehow got the nomination. A GOP Congressman was caught (happened years ago but just came out) encouraging his mistress to get an abortion. He's on record threatening gun violence (maybe to himself, cant remember totally) as part of a marital dispute. He's likely to win reelection.

This is not true at all. Blacks will be 15-20% of the electorate here in TN. Obama will get more white votes than black votes. We're not Mississippi.

Romney's entire 191 base of states except maybe Montana and Arizona might vote 60-70 percent for him.

His moderate appeal prevents Obama from doing the same in much of the northeast.

With numbers like these in uncontested states, Mittens could conceivably win the popular vote by up to 5 points and not win the election.

That actually makes sense...

Republicans will throw a fit and Obama will probably have an assassination attempt levied on him by some guntotting little backwater bugger, but in the end it might finally get the electoral college removed.  That's a good thing.

I don't see Romney breaking 60 in TX, SD, MO, IN, GA, SC, WV, or MS.

It would be pretty insane. I almost think Obama would voluntarily step down.

Actually there's a decent chance that Obama might be underestimated in the polls in his weaker states, so be careful about taking comfort from that kind of thing.

(does that make sense?)

Hating on places because they vote the wrong way isn't especially pleasant.

Why are elected Democrats such pushovers? I hope Obama isn't that weak. Bush lost the popular vote and walked around like he won in a landslide.

Capital and its dominance of the political system is my guess. Financial capital.

I'm almost surprised at how much the south is swinging towards Mitt Romney considering he's so not a southern type candidate, and Paul Ryan isn't either.

Seems to speak to how much people just don't like Obama's ideas.

Yes, many feel his ideas have a dark character to them and despite his promises of hope he has not returned America's credit to the black.

There's too much of this, and really it serves nothing other than hilighting the ignorance of those people. I mean because a state goes 60% one way doesn't discount the fact that 40% of people still feel differently. That's discounting 40% of people you'd otherwise agree with.

 
It's made even more hilarious by the sheer nearsightedness of people.
New jersey and South Dakota calling Tennessee a hellhole? Really? Laughable to say the least. The cultural norm regards jersey as the biggest hole in America, and anyone who has lived through the continuous cycle of winter "clippers" in the upper Midwest would likely tell you it's not a pleasant place for half the year.

...

You're from Alberta.

Yup, home of Banff and jasper, wood buffalo national park, and many other areas of natural beauty. Vibrant cities, a steady and growing economy, and the lowest tax rates in Canada. Lots to be proud of, as there is in every place. I'm also the first to admit that chinooks are a pain, urban sprawl is largely unchecked, and winter is a frozen hell of foot-deep snow and -30 temps. Always an upside and a downside to every locale. Something that people should consider before labeling others as hellholes.

Baloney, if we elected by popular vote, the whole campaign would be different, California and New York would have same day walk up registration and voting, and/or mail in ballots.

Hillary Clinton learned that you play by the rules of the election, no matter if you win the popular vote or not.

I'm sure you will retract your comment on New Jersey and South Dakota, then.

Please learn how to read and analyze properly. I did not refer to them as hellholes. I said cultural norm (ie mainstream media) dictates that jersey is not a great place to live, given by the numerous and continuous jokes about jersey. Second, I said that a rational person would admit that south Dakota is not pleasant for a good chunk of the year, again, not referring to them as a hellhole. Try again.

Keep in mind that the other Tennessee polls were largely pre-debate save for that one YouGov poll that used a rather novel method of getting its sample.  The shift is from then to now is largely explainable by what accounted for Romney's improvement.  There was a significant pool of anti-Obama voters who needed to be convinced that it was worth bothering to vote for Romney.  For a variety of reasons, Tennessee had more of these sorts of voters.  The first debate gave that reason, but because YouGov's October poll only contacted people who had been likely voters in its September poll, it missed that shift caused by the increase in the pool of likely voters.  Not that I think Obama will lose by 25 points here, but 15 points is very believable and 20 points is not impossible.

You made the assertion that, on balance, South Dakota and New Jersey are more 'hellholish' (or inhospitable, or whatever) than Tennessee. A rational observer would say that Alberta trumps all three.

Please stop offering analysis that does not reference my original intents. I was merely pointing out the complete folly of putting down one place comparatively, as each has pros and cons which affect people differently depending on their personal predispositions. I find humid heat unbearable, hence my predisposition to Arizona compared to Florida, but to others the opposite is true, which makes any sort of comparison moot. You have clearly missed the entire point, as you just gave a "rank" of these places based on your own personal beliefs. /end of conversation.

It's certainly less of a hellhole than New Jersey.

R posting a couple of sixty-burgers in the Southeast is within reason very much. Like in NC, I just don't see the cities there as liberal enough bastions to offset the legions of rural voters that will turn out to vote against O.

It's not just that the cities aren't "liberal enough." Hamilton and Knox Counties are GOP strongholds. Ditto for most of Eastern Shelby and the ring of suburban counties surrounding Nashville. Memphis is the only Democratic metro area in the state and even here, white people are very heavily Republican.

Er, no.

But down the crack pipe

New Jersey is a perfectly fine state.  Not quite as good as NY or PA, but better than most of the rest.

I was in an especially bad mood, I'd like to retract this.