Talk Elections

Mason-Dixon I-4 Corridor Poll (http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/news/article.html/content/news/articles/cfn/2012/10/24/florida_decides_poll.html#results)
Romney 51%
Obama 45%
Undecided 4%

October 22-24; 625 LV; MoE +/-4%
 
Tampa Bay subregion
Romney 50%
Obama 46%

Central Florida subregion (Orlando & East)
Romney 52%
Obama 44%

Obama won the Tampa Bay subregion 51%-48% in 2008 - the identical margin by which he won the state.


Mason-Dixon Miami-Dade County Poll (http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/28/3070930_p2/miami-dade-commission-term-limits.html)
Obama 52%
Romney 43%

October 22-24; 625 LV; MoE +/4%

Obama won Miami-Dade County 58%-42% in 2008.

It's not clear whether Mason-Dixon conducted a statewide poll or other regional polls that may pop up on newspaper websites.

The only issue I have is that Obama lost ground among Latinos, even accounting for Cubans that's an ENORMOUS shift that really isn't being seen anywhere else.

Romney is winning Miami-Dade County Hispanics by 29 points.  He's winning Miami-Dade Cubans by a much wider margin, 76%-19%.

Obama leads I-4 Hispanics, 56%-37%.  IIRC, I-4 Hispanics tend to be less Cuban and more Puerto Rican.

Well Mason Dixon did catch Romney's big win amongst hispanics in the FL primary, unlike PPP which had Gingrich up amongst them.

Yes outside of M-D, PR's are much more prevalent.

Using 2008 as a baseline, Obama lost Cubans 52-46... so while I understand a drop-off, that 76-19 number is MASSIVE, and eye-brow raising shift. I'd be curious to know the size of the sample and the MoE...


Yes, which is why I'm taking this seriously, those numbers just make so little sense to me.

Well there are a lot of undecideds in the county poll.


What about the FL-22 poll that had Obama winning only 51-45 in a district he had 57% in back in 2008. Would that correspond with the overall shift in nearby Dade? Bigger? Smaller?

Anyone notice something different about this poll thread so far? :P

How did Bush do amongst cubans?

Very well, I don't think that well, but Bush obviously did incredibly well among Latinos overall... for a Republican.

Edit - Bush made up for a drop-off of Cuban support, which was very small, with that increased support for Latinos overall, and won the Latino vote 56-44.

So it's not impossible, but going on demographic shifts I really have issues with that element of the polling.

Considering it is Mason-Dixon, certainly much better than a Uni Poll and usually considered very balanced unlike Ras, this is good news. Moreover, it follows the other FL polls we've seen recently.

I acknowledge that this is a must win for Romney, that the President does not need the state at all in order to win, and the demos might off (then again, we can usually trust that Mason Dixon knows what it's doing). Still, it's better news than many Republicans have gotten from state polls recently.

Can I send you a cookie, sir?  Because you are the 1st Republican to post something relevant on this board in a long time.''

I still fell momentum to carry this state for Obama, but it will be within a point.

Tampa Bay "subregion" would include Tampa? I'd think you'd want to see at least a tie there for O, but at least it is close.

Srsly? Maybe some exit poll subsample claimed that, but I can assure you that, from precinct results, there is no possibility, none whatsoever, that Obama broke 40 among M-D Cubans. Probably right about 35.
Which probably tells you all you really need to know about this subsample as well. Which isn't saying that the poll is wrong overall, of course.

Except for all of the other Florida polls of course.

Whoever won I-4 corridor was going to win this, it's over.  Next and not NC that one is over too. 

“Romney has pretty much nailed down Florida,” said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, which conducted the poll for the Times and its media partners. “Unless something dramatically changes — an October surprise, a major gaffe — Romney’s going to win Florida.”

The Dade Hispanic vote will not be anything close to +30 for Romney unless only Cubans turn out (much lower % of the population than even 10 years ago). Again, there's a huge divide among younger/older Cubans and a landline only poll probably skews toward the later.

Romney is soaring with the Cuban vote. Those are Bush/Rubio numbers.

Whoa, you're back? Long time, no see!

And I basically agree, fwiw.

Wow, 2 people turn up and a reasonable discussion degenerates...

Did I jinx it with this? >:D

http://ctp.iccas.miami.edu/FACTS_Web/Cuba%20Facts%20Issue%2057.htm

75% in 2000, 78% in 2004.

Yes indeed, just thought I'd pop in before the elections, I still read the forums every once in a long while I just don't post.

Mason-Dixon is the master of Florida polling. 

They said Sink would win in 2010.

They had her up by one point.  Romney wins here by three minimum. 

So you're saying they have a Democratic tilt?

I trust you, soothsayer. I too gazed deep into the entrails of a goat's anal sphincter and discovered this information deep inside.

They were still wrong. The "master of Florida polling" shouldn't say the candidate that loses is going to win.

First off no poll is perfect. Ever heard of margin of error?

They had Sink up by 1, What did Scott win by again?

Also how long before election day was the poll conducted?


They only had Romney winning by nine in the FL primary, but it was a few days earlier then the several polls done right at the end that caught the full extent of Romney's momentum there were thus closer. They also got the Hispanic numbers correct.

Seriously people, chill out about every damn little point in poll and enjoy the ride. :P

Do you have any idea how polling works?

Probably closer to 30 than 35. Hialeah voted 64% McCain and is 75% Cuban or so. The remainder is mostly noncuban Hispanic, not that whites are conservative in Dade anyway.

Wow ! MEGA-EPIC-FAIL !

M-D said 52-43 Obama in Miami-Dade.

Obama leads there right now by 62-38 ... :P

Does anyone know how the I-4 corridor voted ?

This is what Mason-Dixon polled in the I-4, so let's do the math with the "real" results:

()

The combined results of the 15 counties polled by M-D in the I-4 corridor was:

49.7% Romney (1.657.000 votes)
49.3% Obama (1.643.000 votes)
  1.0% Others (34.000 votes)

So, the poll was off by 5.6% ...

So, alltogether we can say that Mason-Dixon was off by about 5-6% in their I-4 poll and by 15 points in their Miami-Dade poll ...

Also, Obama essentially tied (http://blogs.miaminewtimes.com/riptide/2012/11/obama_might_have_won_floridas.php) Mitt Romney with Cuban voters in Florida, despite this poll showing him losing them by 50%. LOL

I feel more comfortable about making noise about the Latino breakdown on this one...

Oh Mr. Phips. Just take a puff and calm the  down.