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Title: NV-04, SUSA: Tarkanian in the lead Post by: krazen1211 on October 30, 2012, 09:57:09 AM http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1028fb62-ff4a-4f44-aaa1-f8093e463df4
Tarkanian 47 Horsford 42 Romney 48 Obama 48 Great news! If Romney is anywhere close to tied with this district he is most certainly competitive in the state, due to their great crossover appeal. Title: Re: NV-04, SUSA: Tarkanian in the lead Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on October 30, 2012, 10:03:51 AM Krazen, I've pretty much parsed what you're getting at, but who are 'they' in this context? Romney and Ryan? Romney and Tarkanian? Some other pair or group of people?
Title: Re: NV-04, SUSA: Tarkanian in the lead Post by: krazen1211 on October 30, 2012, 10:17:22 AM My good sir, 'they' is Mr. Tarkanian and Mr. Romney. This district is 46D 32R by registration, far more Democratic than the state, which is 42D 35R.
Both of them are winning 11% of Democrats which is certainly outstanding and I would not have predicted that to occur. Title: Re: NV-04, SUSA: Tarkanian in the lead Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on October 30, 2012, 10:20:52 AM Tark is running 5% ahead of Romney here, that may or may not be enough. But this could be a real close one on a election night.
If there was ever a Hispanic underpoll in this district it will be here in the 4th, which has North Las Vegas. Where was this Tark in 2010? He would have almost certainly beaten "Chickens for Healthcare" Lowden and been the surging challenger at the last minute, rather than Angle. Title: Re: NV-04, SUSA: Tarkanian in the lead Post by: krazen1211 on October 30, 2012, 10:48:16 AM Tark is running 5% ahead of Romney here, that may or may not be enough. But this could be a real close one on a election night. If there was ever a Hispanic underpoll in this district it will be here in the 4th, which has North Las Vegas. Where was this Tark in 2010? He would have almost certainly beaten "Chickens for Healthcare" Lowden and been the surging challenger at the last minute, rather than Angle. That is certainly true given that this district is more Hispanic than the poll. Of course, the latest statistics show that thus far the GOP has done a better job at GOTV in Clark County. Title: Re: NV-04, SUSA: Tarkanian in the lead Post by: Mr.Phips on October 30, 2012, 12:08:06 PM If Romney is tied here, he is probably winning the state. Bush won this district by something like a 1,000 votes in 2004 and win the state 51%-48%.
Title: Re: NV-04, SUSA: Tarkanian in the lead Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 30, 2012, 12:26:01 PM Absolutely no way Romney is tied here, sorry.
Title: Re: NV-04, SUSA: Tarkanian in the lead Post by: krazen1211 on October 30, 2012, 01:13:11 PM If Romney is tied here, he is probably winning the state. Bush won this district by something like a 1,000 votes in 2004 and win the state 51%-48%. Yes, that is consistent with a Romney surge in the west. Title: Re: NV-04, SUSA: Tarkanian in the lead Post by: Talleyrand on October 30, 2012, 05:51:14 PM SurveyUSA has a terrible track record in Nevada. Tarkanian might win this race after all, but Romney will lose Nevada and this district.
Title: Re: NV-04, SUSA: Tarkanian in the lead Post by: Associate Justice PiT on October 31, 2012, 04:35:19 AM Tark is running 5% ahead of Romney here, that may or may not be enough. But this could be a real close one on a election night. If there was ever a Hispanic underpoll in this district it will be here in the 4th, which has North Las Vegas. Where was this Tark in 2010? He would have almost certainly beaten "Chickens for Healthcare" Lowden and been the surging challenger at the last minute, rather than Angle. He ran for the nomination and lost to Angle. Title: Re: NV-04, SUSA: Tarkanian in the lead Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on October 31, 2012, 06:35:57 AM Tark is running 5% ahead of Romney here, that may or may not be enough. But this could be a real close one on a election night. If there was ever a Hispanic underpoll in this district it will be here in the 4th, which has North Las Vegas. Where was this Tark in 2010? He would have almost certainly beaten "Chickens for Healthcare" Lowden and been the surging challenger at the last minute, rather than Angle. He ran for the nomination and lost to Angle. The Tarkanian campaign in 2010 and the one here are like in completely different leagues. Are you not familiar with that saying? A person does horribly one year and then comes back much stronger so you say, "Where was this guy back in...". That was my point. :P Title: Re: NV-04, SUSA: Tarkanian in the lead Post by: krazen1211 on November 02, 2012, 05:37:42 PM This campaign in 1 tweet.
Jon Ralston @RalstonReports So @StevenHorsford just sent out a $ pitch asking people to "keep Illinois 12th district Democratic." Um, he's running in #nv04. Title: Re: NV-04, SUSA: Tarkanian in the lead Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 02, 2012, 11:46:40 PM lol, he plagiarized a fundraising email. Damn that is rich. :)
Title: Re: NV-04, SUSA: Tarkanian in the lead Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 09, 2012, 10:14:16 AM And here is another serious pollster that gets caught with his pants down in Nevada.
Title: Re: NV-04, SUSA: Tarkanian in the lead Post by: Tender Branson on November 10, 2012, 06:55:06 AM Horsford won ?
Weekend already and I haven't checked a lot of House results yet ... :P Title: Re: NV-04, SUSA: Tarkanian in the lead Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 10, 2012, 07:40:01 AM Horsford won ? Weekend already and I haven't checked a lot of House results yet ... :P Rather comfortably. Jon Ralston nailed that one too. |