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Title: MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State" Post by: RI on October 31, 2012, 08:47:01 PM Quote PublicPolicyPolling@ppppolls Our new Michigan poll for @HCAN finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 53-45: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-8-in-michigan.html … Title: MI: Public Policy Polling: Obama leads by eight Post by: RI on October 31, 2012, 08:48:47 PM New Poll: Michigan President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-10-31 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2620121031108)
Summary: D: 53%, R: 45%, I: 0%, U: 3% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/MichiganPollingMemo103112.pdf) Title: Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State" Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 31, 2012, 08:48:51 PM Wow. Fantastic result!
Title: Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State" Post by: J. J. on October 31, 2012, 08:50:18 PM Quote PublicPolicyPolling@ppppolls Our new Michigan poll for @HCAN finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 53-45: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-8-in-michigan.html … I am to the point where I think PPP has a fairly large Democratic house effect. I don't think MI is a swing state. Title: Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State" Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 31, 2012, 08:52:02 PM I am to the point where I think PPP has a fairly large Democratic house effect. Not really, PPP's results continue to be line with those of all other quality pollsters. Title: Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State" Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 31, 2012, 09:04:03 PM Thank God, a real MI poll
Title: Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State" Post by: Smid on October 31, 2012, 09:06:12 PM But... but... but... I hear Obama is buying advertising here...
Title: Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State" Post by: Fargobison on October 31, 2012, 09:09:40 PM Quote PublicPolicyPolling@ppppolls Our new Michigan poll for @HCAN finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 53-45: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-8-in-michigan.html … I am to the point where I think PPP has a fairly large Democratic house effect. I don't think MI is a swing state. I think it is a bit larger than what Silver is accounting for, they've been pretty optimistic for Obama as of late. That said Scott Rasmussen called Michigan a Republican fantasy, so this certainly fits that narrative. Title: Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State" Post by: Sbane on October 31, 2012, 09:13:00 PM The fact that MI and PA are kind of close but not really that close are a good sign for Obama in regards to the EV/PV split. Also the weak polling for him from California and Oregon are another good sign.
Title: Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State" Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on October 31, 2012, 09:14:13 PM Finally, a poll out of Michigan that's not a no-name with decimals in their results.
MI and WI were fairly close in result in 2008, with MI about 3 pts better for Obama, can't see anything too unbelievable in MI O+8 and WI O+5. PPP is going to build a hell of a reputation for themselves after this one. Their results are consistent and believable across the board. Title: Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State" Post by: Eraserhead on October 31, 2012, 09:54:28 PM The fact that MI and PA are kind of close but not really that close are a good sign for Obama in regards to the EV/PV split. Also the weak polling for him from California and Oregon are another good sign. Yeah, although I'm starting to think Obama will win the popular vote too at this point. Title: Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State" Post by: pbrower2a on October 31, 2012, 11:14:09 PM Michigan Survey Results
Quote Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election were today, who would you vote for? Barack Obama................................................ 53% Mitt Romney.................................................... 45% Undecided....................................................... 3% Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama? Favorable........................................................ 52% Unfavorable .................................................... 44% Not sure .......................................................... 3% Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama's job performance? Approve .......................................................... 52% Disapprove...................................................... 46% Not sure .......................................................... 2% Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney? Favorable........................................................ 46% Unfavorable .................................................... 49% Not sure .......................................................... 5% Not quite 2008, but out of reach for Romney. Republicans can have a near-tie as in 2000 nationwide when the Democratic nominee wins the state by 5. Up by 8? Democrats are winning the popular vote by about 5. High single digits, quick call once the counties along the WI close (Central as opposed to Eastern time) about as some suburban and urban districts call in. Title: Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State" Post by: Seriously? on November 01, 2012, 12:01:02 AM Quote PublicPolicyPolling@ppppolls Our new Michigan poll for @HCAN finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 53-45: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-8-in-michigan.html … I am to the point where I think PPP has a fairly large Democratic house effect. I don't think MI is a swing state. Look, at the end of the day, Obama should win Michigan. But I am shocked with the stock put in this pollster from the folks on this board given the fact that it's not an independent poll. Title: Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State" Post by: J. J. on November 01, 2012, 12:03:06 AM I am to the point where I think PPP has a fairly large Democratic house effect. Not really, PPP's results continue to be line with those of all other quality pollsters. MO, NC argue differently. Title: Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State" Post by: Seriously? on November 01, 2012, 12:07:23 AM I am to the point where I think PPP has a fairly large Democratic house effect. Not really, PPP's results continue to be line with those of all other quality pollsters. MO, NC argue differently. For the most part, they are at the outer range of the Obama turnout model. I know I am going to get flack from the PPP-loving peanut gallery, however, I challenge them to point me to the portion of poll methodology where PPP in this instance hasn't adjusted for Party ID. Title: Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State" Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 01, 2012, 12:19:06 AM I am to the point where I think PPP has a fairly large Democratic house effect. Not really, PPP's results continue to be line with those of all other quality pollsters. MO, NC argue differently. Huh? PPP's NC is backed up by Elon and Civitas, two other polling firms actually based in the state. SUSA (which is horrible in NC) and Rasmussen (which is Rasmussen) disagree there. And PPP hasn't polled Missouri in almost two weeks. Title: Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State" Post by: ajb on November 01, 2012, 12:22:45 AM I am to the point where I think PPP has a fairly large Democratic house effect. Not really, PPP's results continue to be line with those of all other quality pollsters. MO, NC argue differently. For the most part, they are at the outer range of the Obama turnout model. I know I am going to get flack from the PPP-loving peanut gallery, however, I challenge them to point me to the portion of poll methodology where PPP in this instance hasn't adjusted for Party ID. One of the questions I'd have here, is why a partisan poll would want to inflate numbers just days before an election. Wouldn't that have the effect of discouraging turnout? It seems to me that a partisan Democratic poll of Michigan right now, would actually say that Obama was ahead by 3 -- enough to make it seem like he can still win, but not so much as to breed complacency. Title: Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State" Post by: Smid on November 01, 2012, 12:28:11 AM According to the "Approval+6" rule, this poll seems to be bad news for Obama - he's down five points on where he should be with a 52% approval rating... Or have I got it around the wrong way and it's under-polled Obama supporters, and he's actually five points up on what the poll says?
Title: Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State" Post by: Seriously? on November 01, 2012, 12:34:56 AM I am to the point where I think PPP has a fairly large Democratic house effect. Not really, PPP's results continue to be line with those of all other quality pollsters. MO, NC argue differently. For the most part, they are at the outer range of the Obama turnout model. I know I am going to get flack from the PPP-loving peanut gallery, however, I challenge them to point me to the portion of poll methodology where PPP in this instance hasn't adjusted for Party ID. One of the questions I'd have here, is why a partisan poll would want to inflate numbers just days before an election. Wouldn't that have the effect of discouraging turnout? It seems to me that a partisan Democratic poll of Michigan right now, would actually say that Obama was ahead by 3 -- enough to make it seem like he can still win, but not so much as to breed complacency. Instead, you show that the wave has been knocked down to size. Democrats don't need to ramp up turnout in Michigan. Obama should win it either way. Title: Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State" Post by: Brittain33 on November 01, 2012, 05:57:24 AM Quote PublicPolicyPolling@ppppolls Our new Michigan poll for @HCAN finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 53-45: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-8-in-michigan.html … I am to the point where I think PPP has a fairly large Democratic house effect. I don't think MI is a swing state. What about the PPP OH polls you frequently cited, which generally skewed 4 points more R than other polls and were comparable to Rassy? Title: Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State" Post by: Franzl on November 01, 2012, 05:58:52 AM Quote PublicPolicyPolling@ppppolls Our new Michigan poll for @HCAN finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 53-45: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-8-in-michigan.html … I am to the point where I think PPP has a fairly large Democratic house effect. I don't think MI is a swing state. What about the PPP OH polls you frequently cited, which generally skewed 4 points more R than other polls and were comparable to Rassy? J.J.'s 5th Rule of Elections: The most Republican poll is accurate. Title: Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State" Post by: Niemeyerite on November 01, 2012, 08:17:34 AM An 8-point lead is good news for Obama, bad for Romney. (Even if you believe PPP is a hackish pollster with a huge house effect, [insert Cliffy opinion here], [insert Dirks non-sense here]...) Romney won't win here, so he'd better spend his money in other swing states.
End of the story. Title: Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State" Post by: Seriously? on November 01, 2012, 08:21:18 AM An 8-point lead is good news for Obama, bad for Romney. (Even if you believe PPP is a hackish pollster with a huge house effect, [insert Cliffy opinion here], [insert Dirks non-sense here]...) Romney won't win here, so he'd better spend his money in other swing states. End of the story. With that said, there is a legitimate gripe against the PPP/HCAN polls in that they are polls done for a PAC and should be treated as such. That's merely my point here. |