Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: pa2011 on November 01, 2012, 08:05:44 PM



Title: Reuters Tracking -- O +5 Va. O +2 Ohio, Fla. Romney +1 Colorado
Post by: pa2011 on November 01, 2012, 08:05:44 PM
Virginia -- Obama 49 Romney 44.

Ohio -- Obama 47 Romney 45

Florida - Obama 48 Romney 46

Colorado Romney 47 Obama 46.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/111855196/2012-Reuters-Ipsos-State-Polling-11-01-12 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/111855196/2012-Reuters-Ipsos-State-Polling-11-01-12)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/01/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89K0A920121101 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/01/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89K0A920121101)


Title: Re: Reuters Tracking -- O +5 Va. O +2 Ohio, Fla. Romney +1 Colorado
Post by: LiberalJunkie on November 01, 2012, 08:09:14 PM
Obama is surging in Virginia.


Title: Re: Reuters Tracking -- O +5 Va. O +2 Ohio, Fla. Romney +1 Colorado
Post by: Ljube on November 01, 2012, 08:12:44 PM
Do we really need more polls that are telling us essentially the same thing?


Title: Re: Reuters Tracking -- O +5 Va. O +2 Ohio, Fla. Romney +1 Colorado
Post by: ajb on November 01, 2012, 08:15:57 PM
Do we really need more polls that are telling us essentially the same thing?
Well, the more polls we have, for example, with Obama narrowly ahead in Ohio, the more likely it is that that lead is real, and not random chance. So I certainly don't mind having more of them.


Title: Re: Reuters Tracking -- O +5 Va. O +2 Ohio, Fla. Romney +1 Colorado
Post by: Wiz in Wis on November 01, 2012, 08:16:31 PM
Do we really need more polls that are telling us essentially the same thing?

Uh... yes?


Title: Re: Reuters Tracking -- O +5 Va. O +2 Ohio, Fla. Romney +1 Colorado
Post by: J. J. on November 01, 2012, 08:23:35 PM
Virginia -- Obama 49 Romney 44.

Ohio -- Obama 47 Romney 45

Florida - Obama 48 Romney 46

Colorado Romney 47 Obama 46.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/111855196/2012-Reuters-Ipsos-State-Polling-11-01-12 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/111855196/2012-Reuters-Ipsos-State-Polling-11-01-12)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/01/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89K0A920121101 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/01/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89K0A920121101)

Ipsos has about a three point house effect, so I can believe most of those.  VA will be close.


Title: Re: Reuters Tracking -- O +5 Va. O +2 Ohio, Fla. Romney +1 Colorado
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 01, 2012, 08:25:00 PM

Climate is an election issue now.  As I have pointed out before, that helps Obama in NOVA, FL and in the Southwest.


Title: Re: Reuters Tracking -- O +5 Va. O +2 Ohio, Fla. Romney +1 Colorado
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2012, 08:30:50 PM
Virginia -- Obama 49 Romney 44.

Ohio -- Obama 47 Romney 45

Florida - Obama 48 Romney 46

Colorado Romney 47 Obama 46.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/111855196/2012-Reuters-Ipsos-State-Polling-11-01-12 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/111855196/2012-Reuters-Ipsos-State-Polling-11-01-12)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/01/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89K0A920121101 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/01/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89K0A920121101)

Ipsos has about a three point house effect, so I can believe most of those.  VA will be close.
Wait, are you suggesting that you think CO is R+4 right now? Come on, brother.


Title: Re: Reuters Tracking -- O +5 Va. O +2 Ohio, Fla. Romney +1 Colorado
Post by: Reds4 on November 01, 2012, 08:35:35 PM
These polls make no sense.. Obama with a 17 point lead among registered voters in Virginia and Romney with a 6 point lead among Registered voters in Colorado.. no way.


Title: Re: Reuters Tracking -- O +5 Va. O +2 Ohio, Fla. Romney +1 Colorado
Post by: Ljube on November 01, 2012, 08:40:49 PM
Do we really need more polls that are telling us essentially the same thing?
Well, the more polls we have, for example, with Obama narrowly ahead in Ohio, the more likely it is that that lead is real, and not random chance. So I certainly don't mind having more of them.

It's futile to argue with disciples of any religion. So I won't.


Title: Re: Reuters Tracking -- O +5 Va. O +2 Ohio, Fla. Romney +1 Colorado
Post by: J. J. on November 01, 2012, 08:58:14 PM
Virginia -- Obama 49 Romney 44.

Ohio -- Obama 47 Romney 45

Florida - Obama 48 Romney 46

Colorado Romney 47 Obama 46.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/111855196/2012-Reuters-Ipsos-State-Polling-11-01-12 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/111855196/2012-Reuters-Ipsos-State-Polling-11-01-12)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/01/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89K0A920121101 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/01/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89K0A920121101)

Ipsos has about a three point house effect, so I can believe most of those.  VA will be close.
Wait, are you suggesting that you think CO is R+4 right now? Come on, brother.

I think that is a lot more likely than a Obama +5 in VA. 


Title: Re: Reuters Tracking -- O +5 Va. O +2 Ohio, Fla. Romney +1 Colorado
Post by: Eraserhead on November 01, 2012, 09:10:42 PM

Not sure how much I'd trust VA polls at the moment.


Title: Re: Reuters Tracking -- O +5 Va. O +2 Ohio, Fla. Romney +1 Colorado
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 01, 2012, 10:11:03 PM

Not sure how much I'd trust VA polls at the moment.

I think the most liberal areas of the state were hardest hit by the storm.  Genuinely surprised at what we are seeing.  I thought all the post-Sandy national polls would go Romney +3-6 this week due to not being able to reach the Northeast.


Title: Re: Reuters Tracking -- O +5 Va. O +2 Ohio, Fla. Romney +1 Colorado
Post by: Brittain33 on November 01, 2012, 10:28:53 PM

Not sure how much I'd trust VA polls at the moment.

I think the most liberal areas of the state were hardest hit by the storm.  Genuinely surprised at what we are seeing.  I thought all the post-Sandy national polls would go Romney +3-6 this week due to not being able to reach the Northeast.

The 9th district got a foot of snow.


Title: Re: Reuters Tracking -- O +5 Va. O +2 Ohio, Fla. Romney +1 Colorado
Post by: SPQR on November 02, 2012, 03:55:59 AM
I must say I'll miss the "poll cherry-picking" by Republicans after Tuesday.


Title: Re: Reuters Tracking -- O +5 Va. O +2 Ohio, Fla. Romney +1 Colorado
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on November 02, 2012, 06:58:40 AM
Huh, wouldn't expect a result like this. Florida has moved back from tilt R to pure tossup. CO may be lost.


Title: Re: Reuters Tracking -- O +5 Va. O +2 Ohio, Fla. Romney +1 Colorado
Post by: Holmes on November 02, 2012, 08:06:57 AM
Colorado will be a photo finish.