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Title: CO: Public Policy Polling: Obama+4 in Colorado Post by: philly09 on November 02, 2012, 11:41:00 AM From PPP's Twitter
"Our new Colorado poll for @lcvoters finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 50-46. We'll have one last CO poll Monday" Title: Re: CO: Public Policy Polling: Obama+4 in Colorado Post by: Tender Branson on November 02, 2012, 11:41:11 AM New Poll: Colorado President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-11-01 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=820121101108)
Summary: D: 50%, R: 46%, I: 0%, U: 4% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://images.politico.com/global/2012/11/121102_coloradoresults_lcv.pdf) Title: Re: CO: Public Policy Polling: Obama+4 in Colorado Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 02, 2012, 12:02:19 PM PPP in 2008, Obama by 10.
Actual: Obama by 9. Encouraging to see the gold standard with Obama up 4. Title: Re: CO: Public Policy Polling: Obama+4 in Colorado Post by: Person Man on November 02, 2012, 12:05:36 PM I'm calling 50.0 - 48- 1.5
Title: Re: CO: Public Policy Polling: Obama+4 in Colorado Post by: Seriously? on November 02, 2012, 12:58:31 PM PPP in 2008, Obama by 10. Actual: Obama by 9. Encouraging to see the gold standard with Obama up 4. a) a 20-point lead with independents; or b) a large crossover of Republicans; or c) a huge Election Day turnout of Dems. Because Obama is trailing in the Early Vote in CO. Title: Re: CO: Public Policy Polling: Obama+4 in Colorado Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 02, 2012, 12:59:26 PM Obama will probably win independents, they're pretty Dem-leaning in Colorado.
Title: Re: CO: Public Policy Polling: Obama+4 in Colorado Post by: Seriously? on November 02, 2012, 01:08:38 PM Obama will probably win independents, they're pretty Dem-leaning in Colorado. Romney has a +1 advantage in the R/D crossover (12 Ds voting R vs 11 Rs voting D). And R self-identification is -1.4 (36 vs. 37.4) from the Early Vote totals compiled by the Colorado SoS. I guess the only conclusion is that in addition to a lot of self-identifying Is as D in the poll, there will be a lot more Democrats than Republicans voting on Election Day. Otherwise this poll does not match the early vote data. Title: Re: CO: Public Policy Polling: Obama+4 in Colorado Post by: ajb on November 02, 2012, 01:14:06 PM Obama will probably win independents, they're pretty Dem-leaning in Colorado. Romney has a +1 advantage in the R/D crossover (12 Ds voting R vs 11 Rs voting D). And R self-identification is -1.4 (36 vs. 37.4) from the Early Vote totals compiled by the Colorado SoS. I guess the only conclusion is that in addition to a lot of self-identifying Is as D in the poll, there will be a lot more Democrats than Republicans voting on Election Day. Otherwise this poll does not match the early vote data. Title: Re: CO: Public Policy Polling: Obama+4 in Colorado Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 02, 2012, 01:20:20 PM Obama will probably win independents, they're pretty Dem-leaning in Colorado. Gotta call you on this one, Lief. Buck won CO independents, who were 39% of the voting population, by 16 pts in 2010. Now that was after the Tea Party movement, and Buck was a Tea Party candidate. Obama took independents by 10 pts in 2008, but they were also 39% of the voting population. Interestingly enough, it was R+1 in 2008, but Dem +5 in 2010. Now, that make absolutely NO SENSE... unless conservatives are increasingly identifying as Independent, which is probably true. Colorado is going to be a tricky one in 2012, but I have to think Obama wins by about 3 based on aggregate polling data. Title: Re: CO: Public Policy Polling: Obama+4 in Colorado Post by: Skill and Chance on November 02, 2012, 01:31:28 PM Obama will probably win independents, they're pretty Dem-leaning in Colorado. Romney has a +1 advantage in the R/D crossover (12 Ds voting R vs 11 Rs voting D). And R self-identification is -1.4 (36 vs. 37.4) from the Early Vote totals compiled by the Colorado SoS. I guess the only conclusion is that in addition to a lot of self-identifying Is as D in the poll, there will be a lot more Democrats than Republicans voting on Election Day. Otherwise this poll does not match the early vote data. In 2010, the early vote was R+6. The final, all-inclusive tally was D+6. There is a precedent for what PPP is showing. Title: Re: CO: Public Policy Polling: Obama+4 in Colorado Post by: Person Man on November 02, 2012, 02:49:38 PM Its like R+3 right now...and it was even in 2008. It is quite concievable that the composition will be right between 2008 and 2010. Perhaps Obama will get to 51%...and he would have gotten about 48% in 2010. Its all very plausable.
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