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Election Archive => 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Cliffy on November 02, 2012, 09:56:01 pm



Title: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4 (old poll)
Post by: Cliffy on November 02, 2012, 09:56:01 pm
:)) no link to crosstabs yet

Larry Schweikart ‏@LSchweikart
BREAKING: Susquehanna Polling has Romney up FOUR in PA! Booo--Yamaha!

Quote
Susquehanna Polling and Research results for Pennsylvania released today shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama 49% to 45% among 1376 likely voters. Two percent are undecided and 3% are for other candidates.



Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on November 02, 2012, 09:57:23 pm
Susquehanna is excellent at pulling laughable numbers out of their asses, but they've really outdone themselves.

So Obama wins by 6 or something.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Devils30 on November 02, 2012, 09:58:00 pm
I would happily bet my entire bank account and then some on this result being off the mark by at least 5 points.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Vosem on November 02, 2012, 09:58:17 pm
Susquehanna has a noted R house effect. Sorry, but this is only slightly more believable than O+8 in Wisconsin. Trend's certainly in the right direction around these parts, but I don't think it's enough.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: HokeyDood on November 02, 2012, 09:58:36 pm
If a GOP pollster wants to put Romney up 4, be my guest.  

()


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2012, 09:58:46 pm
Lmao......you sight Susquehanna?


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 02, 2012, 09:59:51 pm
What on God's sweet green Earth is this nonsense? Good lord what a failure of a poll.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: DemPGH on November 02, 2012, 10:00:33 pm
First time I've actually laughed out loud looking at a poll on here. Sure, go with it. Just don't bet money. Anything but money. Halloween candy.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 02, 2012, 10:01:47 pm
The fact that you're posting this, shows how ridiculous you are...


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Ty440 on November 02, 2012, 10:02:28 pm
The fact that you're posting this, show how ridiculous you are...


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Cliffy on November 02, 2012, 10:04:32 pm
ummm you guys post/cite PPP, Marist and Susa and you want to talk :))


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on November 02, 2012, 10:04:49 pm
Susquehanna has a noted R house effect. Sorry, but this is only slightly more believable than O+8 in Wisconsin. Trend's certainly in the right direction around these parts, but I don't think it's enough.

It's a lot less believable. Pennsylvania is not very elastic, and like Ohio isn't a big fan of Romney for similar reasons. Romney does a lot better in the Philly suburbs, but Obama prevails by mid-single digits or more.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: cinyc on November 02, 2012, 10:07:43 pm
The fact that you're posting this, show how ridiculous you are...

Posting polls is not ridiculous, regardless of what one may think of the result or pollster.  ALL polls should be posted here.  Attacking posters for posting polls is what's ridiculous.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: dirks on November 02, 2012, 10:08:03 pm
PPP(DDD) is in a tizzy right now "quick cook something up, Obama +12 in PA! D+74 sample! DO IT"


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2012, 10:09:03 pm
Tuesday is going to be hilarious for Republicans on here..


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Ljube on November 02, 2012, 10:09:26 pm
Could Dick Morris be right after all? This would certainly redeem his long lost reputation.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: fezzyfestoon on November 02, 2012, 10:09:45 pm
PPP(DDD) is in a tizzy right now "quick cook something up, Obama +12 in PA! D+74 sample! DO IT"

Hahaha 'like'


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on November 02, 2012, 10:10:27 pm
I think that with this thread, the 2012 boards have officially sunk below the abyss. We now make /b/ look like a haven of intellectual thought and discourse.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 02, 2012, 10:11:15 pm
ummm you guys post/cite PPP, Marist and Susa and you want to talk :))

Are you seriously comparing this lot to PPP? There is a difference between house effect and just being ridiculous - Tuesday is going to be horrible for you.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on November 02, 2012, 10:12:46 pm
Is this real? I've had a lot of whiskey so I'm not too sure what I'm reading


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: TrapperHawk on November 02, 2012, 10:12:52 pm
Hmmm. I'll take this on face value. (Yeah, I know.) Susquehanna's last poll in Pennsylvania from mid-October showed... Romney +4 with 49% to 45%. Same results as today with no movement whatsoever. How... scintillating.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2012, 10:14:14 pm
I think that with this thread, the 2012 boards have officially sunk below the abyss. We now make /b/ look like a haven of intellectual thought and discourse.

You know this makes me long for the Politico days........


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: krazen1211 on November 02, 2012, 10:14:45 pm
Amazing news!


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Cliffy on November 02, 2012, 10:15:46 pm
Seems like they did alright in 2010

D.M. Hawkins ‏@HawkinsUSA
Susquehanna predicted Toomey by 2 (it was 2) and Corbet by 7 (was 9) in 2010 @coltsfan4jesus @nj1000_paul @NumbersMuncher @LSchweikart

BTW they are saying smith up over casey too by 2.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on November 02, 2012, 10:16:02 pm
dominating


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2012, 10:17:38 pm
Hmmm. I'll take this on face value. (Yeah, I know.) Susquehanna's last poll in Pennsylvania from mid-October showed... Romney +4 with 49% to 45%. Same results as today with no movement whatsoever. How... scintillating.

The funny thing is we have had 10 polls of PA since the first Susquehanna and Obama has lead in every single one.

Man......Republicans are getting desperate if this is what they are going to cling too.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: TJ in Oregon on November 02, 2012, 10:18:28 pm
They must have taken this during the hurricane.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Ty440 on November 02, 2012, 10:19:18 pm
dominating

Pennsylvania

RCP Average   Obama  49.4   
                        Romney 44.8   
Obama +4.6


Dominating


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Cliffy on November 02, 2012, 10:25:01 pm
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/us/politics/in-shift-romney-campaign-makes-push-in-pennsylvania.html?ref=politics&_r=1&

Quote
Democrats are saying that the race is much closer than they would have guessed just a week ago.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: TrapperHawk on November 02, 2012, 10:25:30 pm
Hmmm. I'll take this on face value. (Yeah, I know.) Susquehanna's last poll in Pennsylvania from mid-October showed... Romney +4 with 49% to 45%. Same results as today with no movement whatsoever. How... scintillating.

The funny thing is we have had 10 polls of PA since the first Susquehanna and Obama has lead in every single one.

Man......Republicans are getting desperate if this is what they are going to cling too.

I think that it's quite obvious my friend. All of the other pollsters are part of the vast anti-American, Marxist, hippie, Obamabot, left-wing, global warming, communazi, Kenyan conspiracy to re-elect Barack Obama.

Heh. In all seriousness, Susquehanna is a clear outlier here. They're finding numbers that no one else is.  Even then, they have shown NO movement toward Romney. Romney was 'leading' by four points weeks ago in their poll. Still is today. The race in Pennsylvania is relatively static. Hell, there's not been any movement at all in Susquehanna's poll in weeks. It isn't going to swing wildly Romney's way. Romney has other ways to reach 270, and Pennsylvania isn't his ticket to the White House.

You're absolutely right, it is desperation. They're looking for something, anything to get their minds off of Obama's lead in Ohio. Pennsylvania is as good as place as any I suppose.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 02, 2012, 10:25:49 pm
They must have taken this during the hurricane.
I'd love to help Susq save face with that argument, but as Trapper notes, they somehow had Romney +4 in mid-October, too. They just seem to be absolutely failing at some level of polling.


Just for reference, so we're clear, special little election-only posters, Susquehanna has been a gargantuan outlier all season:



Franklin & Marshall      10/28   49.0   45.0   Obama +4.0
Philadelphia Inquirer      10/25   49.0   43.0   Obama +6.0
Rasmussen             10/24   51.0   46.0   Obama +5.0
Muhlenberg              10/21   50.0   45.0   Obama +5.0
Gravis Marketing       10/21   48.0   45.0   Obama +3.0
Angus Reid             10/20   48.0   39.0   Obama +9.0
Pulse Opinion Research     10/15   48.0   44.0   Obama +4.0
Quinnipiac                       10/14   50.0   46.0   Obama +4.0
PPP                               10/14   51.0   44.0   Obama +7.0
Muhlenberg               10/14   49.0   45.0   Obama +4.0
Susquehanna             10/13   45.0   49.0   Romney +4.0
YouGov                     10/11   51.0   44.0   Obama +7.0
Rasmussen                10/9           51.0   46.0   Obama +5.0
Pulse Opinion Research   10/8    47.0   45.0   Obama +2.0
Philadelphia Inquirer      10/8    50.0   42.0   Obama +8.0
Susquehanna *               10/6   47.0   46.0   Obama +1.0
Siena                       10/5   43.0   40.0   Obama +3.0
Pulse Opinion Research   10/1           50.0   43.0   Obama +7.0
Muhlenberg               9/26   49.0   42.0   Obama +7.0
NYT/Quinnipiac              9/24           54.0   42.0   Obama +12.0
Franklin & Marshall      9/23           52.0   43.0   Obama +9.0
Mercyhurst College      9/20           48.0   40.0   Obama +8.0
Susquehanna              9/20           47.0   45.0   Obama +2.0
Rasmussen              9/19           51.0   39.0   Obama +12.0
We Ask America *      9/18           48.1   42.2   Obama +5.9
PPP                              9/18           52.0   40.0   Obama +12.0
Susquehanna              9/17           48.0   47.0   Obama +1.0
Muhlenberg              9/16           50.0   41.0   Obama +9.0


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on November 02, 2012, 10:27:03 pm
I think that with this thread, the 2012 boards have officially sunk below the abyss. We now make /b/ look like a haven of intellectual thought and discourse.

You know this makes me long for the Politico days........

At least Politico had enough of a functioning brain to argue and use words like "chicanery". Cliffy/dirks/rockhound may actually have learning disabilities (not to insult the kids I've volunteered with).


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: DemPGH on November 02, 2012, 10:29:50 pm
You know what? Too late and a bit much wine to draw any real parallels between ridiculous doomsday predictors and this stuff. It'll be wrong, and wrong, and wrong. And wrong. But keep coming back with gibberish.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 02, 2012, 10:31:41 pm
Another fun note: Only Siena once and Pulse once have also ever shown Obama to have under 48% support in any poll, and the last other one to show that? October 8th. Somehow Susq has Obama at 45%? That's hilariously outlying.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Oakvale on November 02, 2012, 10:31:51 pm
()()()


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Invisible Obama on November 02, 2012, 10:35:00 pm
It's amazing that there will be Republicans genuinely surprised when Romney does not win Pennsylvania on Tuesday.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 02, 2012, 10:41:58 pm
Lmao......you sight Susquehanna?

You might want to check your spelling before laughing at anyone.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Gass3268 on November 02, 2012, 10:58:07 pm
I very much doubt this is true, but I want to see a few other polls this weekend from PA.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Communist Is Not An Insult on November 02, 2012, 11:03:03 pm
A joke. Romney has nothing to offer PA, racially motivated blue collar voters aren't gonna turn out in droves, and PA suburban women aren't exactly going to be rushing to the polls for him either.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Comrade Funk on November 02, 2012, 11:12:06 pm
Yeah, no. This firm had Romney up 4 a month ago too.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Seriously? on November 02, 2012, 11:16:24 pm
Lmao......you sight Susquehanna?
You guys cite PPP (D) sauced advocacy polls for DNC "progressive" PACs, so why not?

Glorious, glorious, glorious news.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: J. J. on November 02, 2012, 11:17:49 pm
The Republican version of Marist. 


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Seriously? on November 02, 2012, 11:19:06 pm
I think that with this thread, the 2012 boards have officially sunk below the abyss. We now make /b/ look like a haven of intellectual thought and discourse.

You know this makes me long for the Politico days........

At least Politico had enough of a functioning brain to argue and use words like "chicanery". Cliffy/dirks/rockhound may actually have learning disabilities (not to insult the kids I've volunteered with).
Politico... Another great objective source... Go cite the New York Times or Huff Post while you're at it.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2012, 11:19:34 pm
The Republican version of Marist. 

False equivalence at it's finest........


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 02, 2012, 11:20:20 pm
I think that with this thread, the 2012 boards have officially sunk below the abyss. We now make /b/ look like a haven of intellectual thought and discourse.

You know this makes me long for the Politico days........

At least Politico had enough of a functioning brain to argue and use words like "chicanery". Cliffy/dirks/rockhound may actually have learning disabilities (not to insult the kids I've volunteered with).
Politico... Another great objective source... Go cite the New York Times or Huff Post while you're at it.
In this case I think he's actually referencing the pre-Cliffy/krazen insane blabbering conservative who used to run around here posting like rockhound or heatmaster. Boy, there's a lot of you.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Ljube on November 02, 2012, 11:22:32 pm
I think that with this thread, the 2012 boards have officially sunk below the abyss. We now make /b/ look like a haven of intellectual thought and discourse.

You know this makes me long for the Politico days........

At least Politico had enough of a functioning brain to argue and use words like "chicanery". Cliffy/dirks/rockhound may actually have learning disabilities (not to insult the kids I've volunteered with).
Politico... Another great objective source... Go cite the New York Times or Huff Post while you're at it.

Politico is an exalted poster on this forum, who is presently away, but will return upon Romney's victory.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Minnesota Mike on November 02, 2012, 11:22:49 pm
I think Romney should spend from now to election day in Pennsylvania so he can nail down the state.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: King on November 02, 2012, 11:24:51 pm
This poll is terrific news for Obama.  The last Susquehanna Polling & Research had Romney up 49-45 one month ago.   Despite all of Romney's best efforts, this means there was no movement towards him in this state.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Cliffy on November 02, 2012, 11:25:36 pm
I think Romney should spend from now to election day in Pennsylvania so he can nail down the state.

I think Romney and Pacs have put down 4mil in ads this week. 


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: J. J. on November 02, 2012, 11:25:51 pm
The Republican version of Marist. 

False equivalence at it's finest........

You obviously have not been following Marist.  


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Tender Branson on November 03, 2012, 12:31:00 am
IT'S NOT OVA YET ... !

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=87245.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=48619.0


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Umengus on November 03, 2012, 05:03:41 am
If this poll is an outlier, the pollster will lose his total credibility for the future.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 03, 2012, 08:23:58 am
If this poll is an outlier, the pollster will lose his total credibility for the future.

What credibility are you taking about?


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Seriously? on November 03, 2012, 09:05:55 am
If this poll is an outlier, the pollster will lose his total credibility for the future.

What credibility are you taking about?
Susquehanna has a very good track record in Pennsylvania. They generally get things right.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Smash255 on November 03, 2012, 09:26:05 am
If this poll is an outlier, the pollster will lose his total credibility for the future.

What credibility are you taking about?
Susquehanna has a very good track record in Pennsylvania. They generally get things right.

Internal polls are something totally different,  not to mention, well the wonders of why these results seemed so similar to their last poll..


Quote
Update/Correction, November 3, 8:18 am ET:

Jeryl Bier forwarded us the following email from Jim Lee of Susquehanna:

This poll is three weeks old, Jeryl.  Not sure why this poll is still being circulated as “new”. Tomorrow the Pittsburgh tribune review will release a new poll they commmissioned us to do “post hurricane sandy”. It shows a tighter race. Jim

http://twitchy.com/2012/11/02/new-poll-shows-romney-up-by-4-in-pennsylvania/

 


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4
Post by: Invisible Obama on November 03, 2012, 09:42:07 am
Now this is amusing, Republicans got all excited, only to find out that it's an old poll. Priceless.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4 (old poll)
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 03, 2012, 10:00:34 am
rofl

The Republican hacks have truly out done themselves this time!


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4 (old poll)
Post by: Ljube on November 03, 2012, 10:07:00 am
I thought this was the 3 weeks old poll since I couldn't find it on their web site.
But I didn't want to break the news. For obvious reasons. ;)


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4 (old poll)
Post by: Ljube on November 03, 2012, 10:09:22 am
Now, what would a tighter race look like?
Let me guess: 48-48


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4 (old poll)
Post by: Seriously? on November 03, 2012, 10:27:53 am
Now, what would a tighter race look like?
Let me guess: 48-48

Romney should still be ahead. The Tribune did release the raw approval numbers of the poll. The favorables were the same, but the unfavorables were better for Romney by three points. My guess is the poll will show a 1-2 point Romney lead.

http://triblive.com/home/2878011-74/casey-smith-poll-percent-senate-bob-lee-republican-class-county#axzz2B8bdHd6U (http://triblive.com/home/2878011-74/casey-smith-poll-percent-senate-bob-lee-republican-class-county#axzz2B8bdHd6U)


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4 (old poll)
Post by: Smash255 on November 03, 2012, 11:33:12 am
Now, what would a tighter race look like?
Let me guess: 48-48

Romney should still be ahead. The Tribune did release the raw approval numbers of the poll. The favorables were the same, but the unfavorables were better for Romney by three points. My guess is the poll will show a 1-2 point Romney lead.

http://triblive.com/home/2878011-74/casey-smith-poll-percent-senate-bob-lee-republican-class-county#axzz2B8bdHd6U (http://triblive.com/home/2878011-74/casey-smith-poll-percent-senate-bob-lee-republican-class-county#axzz2B8bdHd6U)

Its another INTERNAL poll isn't it??


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4 (old poll)
Post by: Brittain33 on November 03, 2012, 11:44:54 am
:)) no link to crosstabs yet

Larry Schweikart ‏@LSchweikart
BREAKING: Susquehanna Polling has Romney up FOUR in PA! Booo--Yamaha!

Quote
Susquehanna Polling and Research results for Pennsylvania released today shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama 49% to 45% among 1376 likely voters. Two percent are undecided and 3% are for other candidates.


LSchweikart predicted a DeWine and Blackwell win in 2006 based on what he was seeing in Ohio.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4 (old poll)
Post by: Seriously? on November 03, 2012, 12:52:36 pm
Now, what would a tighter race look like?
Let me guess: 48-48

Romney should still be ahead. The Tribune did release the raw approval numbers of the poll. The favorables were the same, but the unfavorables were better for Romney by three points. My guess is the poll will show a 1-2 point Romney lead.

http://triblive.com/home/2878011-74/casey-smith-poll-percent-senate-bob-lee-republican-class-county#axzz2B8bdHd6U (http://triblive.com/home/2878011-74/casey-smith-poll-percent-senate-bob-lee-republican-class-county#axzz2B8bdHd6U)

Its another INTERNAL poll isn't it??
No, it's a poll for the Pittsburgh Tribune Review. The paper decided to sequester the result for their Sunday edition, which makes sense because that is when the most papers are sold.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4 (old poll)
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on November 03, 2012, 06:47:14 pm
I predict an R+1 poll. Which will f***ing hilariously hilarious on Tuesday night. :)


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4 (old poll)
Post by: heatmaster on November 03, 2012, 09:30:49 pm
Hey if you Dems want to believe that Obama has this thing won, be my guest; fantasizing is supposed to be good for one's brain.


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4 (old poll)
Post by: Tender Branson on November 08, 2012, 01:22:28 am
Off by 9 ...


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4 (old poll)
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on November 08, 2012, 04:12:20 pm
Excellent news!


Title: Re: PA: Susquehanna Romney +4 (old poll)
Post by: DemPGH on November 08, 2012, 05:41:12 pm
I mean, did they have to blow it this badly? This is epic fail mode. Not just fail, epic fail. And I remember on RCP they vigorously defended this. It goes to prove that every once in a while common sense makes for an excellent test, because this never made it past the common sense test.