Talk Elections

51-45
http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/11/miami-herald-fl-poll-romney-51-obama-45-1.html#storylink=cpy#storylink=cpy

More Mason-Dixon. If Romney was up 6 he wouldn't have been in Miami on Thursday!

Great news!

Yeah, he's probably up, but if he were really up 6, he would be treating this state like NC.

Connie Mack baby! ;)

M-D sure better hope they're the one right in a ton of wrong on this one. The only other pollster to ever show such a lead in FL? You guessed it: M-D, 10/10. Rassy, Angus Reid and Susq, who just released the laughable PA poll, had shown in mid month R+5. 22 other polls never showed more than R+3, and since the 27th, Obama has lead 6/11 polls run, with Romney's biggest lead being Gravis' R+3.


 Take all of this as you will.

I thought Mason-Dixon stopped polling FL?

Must have mis-polled the support for pulling out amongst the office.

Yeah right, because Romney is so popular in FL he can pull that out for him. Get real.

despite the D+412 polls that inflate Obama in florida, Romney has led here for quite some time. Maybe not +6 as M&D says, but by at least 3. He will win the state

Yeah, what happened? Did they decide they'd rather keep pushing out Republican-favored results?

This is interesting and obviously pretty good news for Mittster.  Florida was starting to drift back to toss up status (from Romney's side), so they've got to be pleased to see this.  Mason Dixon is a reliable source, as well.

We're seeing a similar polling phenomenon in Florida and North Carolina. In both states, most of the polls are showing the race as a tie, with a one point or so advantage for either candidate. But then a small number of polls, again in both states, are showing Romney up by 5 or 6 points. But there are no polls showing a result in between. Strange.

This means that the right approach is to average out all polls showing NC and FL tied, then to separately average out all polls showing Romney lead and finally to make an average of the previous two averages.

Mason Dixon always shows huge, outlier GOP leads then suddenly starts showing the results others are showing. I guess they are just skipping that step this time.

2004
Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29 625 LV 4.0 49 45  Bush +4

2008
Mason-Dixon   10/29 - 10/30   625 LV   4.0   49   47   Obama +2


Not too shabby, eh?

Jay Cost ‏@JayCostTWS
If there is anything that demonstrates how different assumptions yield different results, it is Marist vs Mason Dixon in FL.
and PPP and SUSA.....

What % white is the MD sample? Florida is almost guaranteed to have a decreasing white % each cycle, although how much is always a question.

Is this where I say Junk Poll because I don't like the result?

It did increase by 1% in 2008 if you believe the exit polls.

No, it's where you largely distrust the poll because it doesn't come close to connecting with 95% of the polls we've seen.

Mason Dixon stopped polling. The Florida Poll did not. M/D got paid.

Romney isn't in a position where he can hold campaign events that only serve to boost Senatorial candidates.

Prob not, j/k.  He's be an idiot to not visit FL here at the end, it's not like it's Texas.

my numbers:
Obama- 51.3649284659
Romney - 47 on that money!

Solid Bahmers. 

As someone born, but not raised in Florida, I can say I'm awfully glad it's not like Texas.

I would be extremely surprised if Romney were to win Florida by this much. While I wasn't surprised that Bush won Florida in 2004, the margin was definitely more than I expected. This poll is definitely not in sync with the consensus, so they are either geniuses or they will lose considerable credibility on November 7th. If this is what the campaigns thought as true, I don't think you would have the President coming back before the election, nor would President Clinton have had five rallies in the state yesterday. Personally, I think Florida will come down to the ground game.

New Poll: Florida President by Mason-Dixon on 2012-11-02 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1220121101009)

Summary: D: 45%, R: 51%, I: 0%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/11/miami-herald-fl-poll-romney-51-obama-45-1.html#storylink=cpy#storylink=cpy)

some things...

D +5 (D 44% R 39 % I 17%)

but Obama at only 80 % with democrats.

Romney leads Indies by 6.

Job approv: only 43 %

So maybe a anti-obama bias (2-3 p).

Junk poll!

Yeah, we'll see if Obama only gets 80% of Florida Democrats on election day...

Just an FYI,

D 44 and R 39 is obviously the results of a leaner question which is not the same as its going to be asked by exit polls. Basically, the exit polls will ask which party do they identify with and garner results with both parties in the 30's. A leaner question is worded with the use of either the 5 "Dem, Lean Dem, Independent, etc." or a worded question that asks the person to specify the party they may lean towards.

With the different wording you'll get more barely Dems and barely GOP and the percent of Dems that favor Obama will go down relative to a poll that doesn't use a leaner question.

If you standardized the poll back to a non leaner party id question the results would likely change to Obama getting ~87% of Dems which is about right. And that would be with a party ID sample of probably around D 38, R 33.

So once you take into account the way this polls party ID was almost definitely worded the crosstabs looks about right.

Quite sad that your very first post is nothing more than shallow partisan hackery.

I am having trouble digesting a Florida +2obama and a +6romney on the same day. Can't be both..
No matter what happens on tuesday, a lot of pollsters are going to be very very wrong.

Whoa. I didn't post this in this thread, I remember posting it on the NBC poll only. What the hell?

Anyways, yeah probably junk.

Hmm.

Off by about 7 ...

Mason-Dixon = worse than Zogby.

They also said Minnesota was Obama +3. Haha.

"Shallow partisan hackery",they said...

Ha, I don't feel bad Monday morning quarterbacking / coaching this one, because it was obvious that this was pretty bad along with their +7 one.

Remember guys, Mason-Dixon is the Gold Standard in Florida.

This and their McCaskill+2 poll have ruined their credibility for long.

And their Rehberg +4 poll! And of course their poll showing Matheson losing by 12%.

Too bad Sam Spade doesn't post here anymore.

"Trust no poll but Mason-Dixon.”

Hey what happen you said romney was going to win florida. I thought mason dixon was a great poll. Deposit that million dollars back in my account. Florida was won by Obama. And mason dixon had rehberg winning the senate seat in MT. Deposit that 500,000 back in my account. Tester won that seat. LOL......................... Quit getting your news from Drudge,Foxnews,Redstate &Realclearpolitics.