Talk Elections

Ipsos-Reuters State Tracking Polls (http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/ipsosstate110312.pdf)
In alphabetical order:

Colorado
Romney 47%
Obama 45%
None/Other 4%
Don't Know/Refused 4%

November 1-3; 973 LV; MoE +/-3.6%

Florida
Romney 47%
Obama 47%
None/Other 2%
Don't Know/Refused 5%

November 1-3; 946 LV; MoE +/-3.6%

Ohio
Obama 46%
Romney 45%
None/Other 3%
Don't Know/Refused 6%

November 1-3; 1,031 LV; MoE +/-3.5%

Virginia
Obama 48%
Romney 45%
None/Other 2%
Don't Know/Refused 5%

November 1-3; 947 LV; MoE +/-3.6%

The caption of the release says "state-level election tracking: 11.3.12".  This might mean that we will get updates tomorrow and Monday nights.

Bad sample for Obama somewhere?

It's ridiculous that 'bad sample' (in this context) is even a relevant phrase at this point. Having tracking polls the weekend before the election is stupid.

Today hasn't been as bad of a polling day for Romney as the last few were. I think a Romney victory on Tuesday is still very conceivable if undecideds break towards him.

wow these are all over the place. Ipsos-Reuters has a democrat lean so let's keep that in mind

I think Colorado has made a final turn towards Romney. He will win that state

I don't think Virginia is Obama +3. That's kind of silly. Michael Barone has that going to Romney and I think I'll side with him. He's the one with all the contacts and being fed all the internals

Ohio...perhaps. Obama knocked down to 46%...Romney not rising either.

Their polls a D + 2.9 house effect.  This is a good poll for Romney. 

The oddness of the idea that Ohio is 9% undecided or other at this point inclines me to be particularly skeptical about that.

University of Cincinnati says Obama +2 , I.m sticking with them.

Internet poll though.

Well, then it is not that good.  :)

Decimals! Yay!

They are Nate Silvers'. 

The likely registered gaps just make no sense. Especially in CO, VA.

Yeah....and CO is R+4 in terms of turnout....and if Obama is still only down by 2 in that case, I think that he should be fine...especially with him behind Romney with Indies by double digits.

Still haven't come around to trusting internet polls as of yet.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/04/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89K0A920121104?irpc=932

Obama up 4 in Ohio now according to the article.

And Colorado tied at 48, Florida tied at 46, and Obama up one in VA,  47-46. So, with the exception of VA, more signs of movement towards Obama.

Day 2 (http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12167):

Colorado
Romney 48% (+1)
Obama 48% (+3)
None/Other 3% (-2)
Don't Know/Refused 2% (-2)

November 2-4; 676 LV; MoE +/-4.3%

Florida
Romney 46% (-1)
Obama 46% (-1)
None/Other 4% (+2)
Don't Know/Refused 4% (-1)

November 2-4; 743 LV; MoE +/-4.1%

Ohio
Obama 48% (+2)
Romney 44% (-1)
None/Other 3% (-)
Don't Know/Refused 5% (-1)

November 2-4; 712 LV; MoE +/-4.2%

Virginia
Obama 47% (-1)
Romney 46% (+1)
None/Other 2%
Don't Know/Refused 6% (+1)

November 2-4; 662 LV; MoE +/-4.3%

For some reason, sample sizes went down and MoEs increased substantially from yesterday's tracking poll.

Day 3 (http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12172):

Colorado
Obama 48% (-)
Romney 47% (-1)
None/Other 3% (-)
Don't Know/Refused 1% (-1)

November 3-5; 774 LV; MoE +/-4.0%

Florida
Romney 48% (+2)
Obama 47% (+1)
None/Other 1% (-3)
Don't Know/Refused 4% (-)

November 3-5; 769 LV; MoE +/-4.0%

Ohio
Obama 50% (+2)
Romney 46% (+2)
None/Other 1% (-2)
Don't Know/Refused 2% (-3)

November 3-5; 680 LV; MoE +/-4.3%

Virginia
Obama 48% (+1)
Romney 46% (-)
None/Other 2% (-)
Don't Know/Refused 5% (- 1)

November 3-5; 828 LV; MoE +/-3.9%

Let's see, an Internet poll from a firm with a house effect of D+2.9.