Talk Elections

New Poll: Virginia President by Rasmussen on 2012-11-04 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5120121104016)

Summary: D: 48%, R: 50%, I: 1%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/virginia/election_2012_virginia_president)

Rasmussen is the only poll to have Obama down in Virginia over this past week.

With rasmussen having romney up by 2 is not good for romney.

This is very interesting...comparing his final poll to the one he did on October 24th...

On October 24th, whites went 65-34 for Romney,Blacks  91-8 Obama and 59-39 other race (latino and asian) for Obama.

On his new poll which has Romney still leading, check this out:

Whites go for Romney 63-35 Blacks 97-3 for Obama, and other races 49-45 for Romney. That is a huge switch for Latinos and Asians to make in one week.

I really think it is deadlocked there at 49-49 with a slight edge to Obama. If he gets 36% of whites, 97% of blacks, and somewhere around 56% of other races, he wins.

Glorious, Glorious, Glorious news. One of the most reliable pollsters in the 2008 election cycle understands that a uniform national swing will translate on the state level.

Go Mitt, go!

Romney, by Jim Webb numbers.  :) 

Whites breaking 65-35 Romney seems about right.

And I do think he is gaining with Hispanics.

That's interesting, not with the Hispanics I talk to : )

PPP's numbers are always much better then Scotty's

Well Ras is polling reality rather than the fantasy D+3 trillion garbage PeePeePee is churning out

Do me a favor and go back to our 2008 polling page. Look at Rasmussen's final polls:

Colorado: Rasmussen (O +4 ) Final Result: (O + 9)
Nevada: Rasmussen (O + 4) Final Result: (O + 12)
Wisconsin: Rasmussen ( O + 7) Final Result: (O + 14)
Ohio: Rasmussen (Tie) Final Result: (O + 5)
Florida: Rasmussen (M + 1) Final Result: (O + 3)
Virginia: Rasmussen (O + 4) Final Result: (O + 6)
North Carolina: Rasmussen (M + 1) Final Result: (O + 1)
New Hampshire: Rasmussen (O + 4) Final Result: (O + 9)

What was that about reliable??

They were using the wrong 2004 turnout model and came up with ridiculous results.

The same thing can happen to PPP this time.

Scotty boy short changed Obama by almost an average of 5 points! He truly is a awful pollster!

Is there any logical reason to accept Ras and drop PPP?  Ras had an terribly bad R house effect in 2010.   PPP, believe or not, leaned slightly R last time around.  Ras is basically the only poll that has Romney leading anywhere other than NC and FL. 

It depends on whether we wish to predict the outcome correctly, or stick to the known, previously accurate pollster.

I’m not objective here, because I hope Romney will win and no matter how much I try, some of that hope is projected onto my reasoning.

But look at CNN for instance. They seem to have chosen the middle road between PPP and Rasmussen. The reason – to minimize their error.

Perhaps he meant reliably Republican ;)

Rasmussen has to comfort Republicans somehow. The fact that he leaks numbers to Drudge tells you all you need to know about him.

Remember Hawaii Senate 2010? I rest my case.

But....but....but house effect, JJ! And never trust one poll, JJ! The OH PPP poll, JJ!

Jesus, I once respected you? *sigh*

It's gonna be close. If Rassy is ~R+3, then he's got this thing right where everyone else does: darn tight, with the thinnest Obama advantage.

Again, I take these state numbers with a grain of salt. I know there are assumptions in them that do not match the national shift and the early vote data, which basically confirms this shift.

Where Rasmussen went wrong in 2008 is one the state level. Why? There were turnout assumptions baked in there based on the 2004 data. Similarly, some of these D-leaning pollsters are using similar 2008 breakdowns when they adjust the polling based on race and geography or in some instances party ID.

I trust the National polls. That shows a dead heat. The early voting in most states confirms a tightening on the state level. Obama is down in absolute terms in early voting and Romney is up. That number is probably in the 6-14 point range depending on the state.

When I see that the absentee numbers are down in the Dem-leaning counties in Virginia and up in the Republican counties, it tells me that there's a shift off of the five-point Obama win in 2008. Polls like PPP show a 2-point swing from '08. The early numbers -- actual data -- say otherwise.

At the end of the day, I am not saying that Romney has this one in the bag. He doesn't. The race is close on both the state level and a number of swing states. However, these comfortable Obama leads in states like Ohio and Virginia defy logic.

^^ right, that's the only thing republicans can hope for is that the turnout models have been fudged by most pollsters this time around. Clearly Obama's early voting numbers aren't 2008 levels, but we didn't expect them to be. That said, I can't see this many people missing this election. If they are, I'll gladly admit I was wrong.

It may not defy logic. Romney may be making gains in deep blue states which will inflate his national numbers. The democrats have a structural advantage since the GOP seems content to cede the non-white male vote to them.

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