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Title: Suffolk Bellwethers: Lake, OH: R+4; Milford, NH: R+5; Epping, NH: R+2 Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2012, 04:51:21 PM Suffolk Bellwether Polls (http://www.suffolk.edu/offices/54254.html)
Lake County, Ohio Romney 47% Obama 43% Duncan 4% Alexander 1% Undecided 2% Refused 4% Milford, New Hampshire Romney 51% Obama 46% Undecided 3% Epping, New Hampshire Romney 49% Obama 47% Undecided 3% Refused 1% November 1-4; 300 LV; MoE +/-5.65% Title: Re: Suffolk Bellwethers: Lake, OH: R+4; Milford, NH: R+5; Epping, NH: R+2 Post by: Ty440 on November 05, 2012, 04:57:11 PM I live in Lake County and I can see Romney winning by two or three percent, it's full of those working class to upper-middle class whites and only around four percent minority.
We usually always track the statewide average within one or two percent. Interesting to see if Lake county deviates from the statewide total. Title: Re: Suffolk Bellwethers: Lake, OH: R+4; Milford, NH: R+5; Epping, NH: R+2 Post by: dirks on November 05, 2012, 04:57:28 PM how do they look relative to 2008?
Title: Re: Suffolk Bellwethers: Lake, OH: R+4; Milford, NH: R+5; Epping, NH: R+2 Post by: J. J. on November 05, 2012, 05:02:54 PM Dirks, the first two were Obama -2 below state average; the third was Obama +2.
Title: Re: Suffolk Bellwethers: Lake, OH: R+4; Milford, NH: R+5; Epping, NH: R+2 Post by: Holmes on November 05, 2012, 05:03:17 PM how do they look relative to 2008? Click on "Election Results" on the top of every page. Title: Re: Suffolk Bellwethers: Lake, OH: R+4; Milford, NH: R+5; Epping, NH: R+2 Post by: King on November 05, 2012, 05:05:08 PM 6 point margin of error.
how do they look relative to 2008? Click on "Election Results" on the top of every page. You have to pay Dave to get town results. I have before, but I don't want to renew my membership to check one thing. Title: Re: Suffolk Bellwethers: Lake, OH: R+4; Milford, NH: R+5; Epping, NH: R+2 Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2012, 05:07:55 PM how do they look relative to 2008? Obama won the New Hampshire towns in 2008 52/53-47/46. He won Lake County 49.45-48.62. Those polled in Epping said they voted 47-40 Obama in 2008 (6% did not vote in 2008). Those polled in Milford said they voted 55-38 Obama (3% did not vote in 2008). Lake County wasn't asked that question for some odd reason. Title: Re: Suffolk Bellwethers: Lake, OH: R+4; Milford, NH: R+5; Epping, NH: R+2 Post by: Holmes on November 05, 2012, 05:10:10 PM 6 point margin of error. how do they look relative to 2008? Click on "Election Results" on the top of every page. You have to pay Dave to get town results. I have before, but I don't want to renew my membership to check one thing. Oh right, I saw Lake County and assumed the New Hampshire numbers were from counties as well. Didn't really pay attention. My bad. Title: Re: Suffolk Bellwethers: Lake, OH: R+4; Milford, NH: R+5; Epping, NH: R+2 Post by: J. J. on November 05, 2012, 05:17:38 PM 6 point margin of error. how do they look relative to 2008? Click on "Election Results" on the top of every page. You have to pay Dave to get town results. I have before, but I don't want to renew my membership to check one thing. The 2000, 2004 and 2008 results are included in the release. Title: Re: Suffolk Bellwethers: Lake, OH: R+4; Milford, NH: R+5; Epping, NH: R+2 Post by: GMantis on November 05, 2012, 05:18:30 PM You can see the election results in New Hampshire here:
http://sos.nh.gov/2008PresGen.aspx Epping was won by Obama with a 7.4% margin and Milford by 4.7%. Title: Re: Suffolk Bellwethers: Lake, OH: R+4; Milford, NH: R+5; Epping, NH: R+2 Post by: Linus Van Pelt on November 05, 2012, 08:45:37 PM Lake County, Ohio (http://www.suffolk.edu/files/SUPRC/11_5_2012_lake_county_oh_marginals.pdf) Romney 47% Obama 43% Duncan 4% Alexander 1% Undecided 2% Refused 4% Duncan? Title: Re: Suffolk Bellwethers: Lake, OH: R+4; Milford, NH: R+5; Epping, NH: R+2 Post by: cavalcade on November 05, 2012, 08:58:12 PM This points to both OH and NH being very close, if I read it right, though there is of course the MOE. About the best news Romney's gotten today.
Title: Re: Suffolk Bellwethers: Lake, OH: R+4; Milford, NH: R+5; Epping, NH: R+2 Post by: DemPGH on November 05, 2012, 09:14:58 PM I don't know how diverse those areas are, but it seems strange you'd have a high MOE like that in these small, focused areas to include towns. And what a day of polling for Obama-- even Gallup, after a hiatus, moved hard to Obama. This strange thing is the best on the day by far for Romney, including Gallup.
Title: Re: Suffolk Bellwethers: Lake, OH: R+4; Milford, NH: R+5; Epping, NH: R+2 Post by: J. J. on November 05, 2012, 09:45:52 PM The folks at Suffolk are either going to look like idiots or geniuses tomorrow. Same with the folks at PPP.
Title: Re: Suffolk Bellwethers: Lake, OH: R+4; Milford, NH: R+5; Epping, NH: R+2 Post by: Seriously? on November 05, 2012, 10:48:58 PM The folks at Suffolk are either going to look like idiots or geniuses tomorrow. Same with the folks at PPP. Title: Re: Suffolk Bellwethers: Lake, OH: R+4; Milford, NH: R+5; Epping, NH: R+2 Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on November 05, 2012, 11:04:25 PM 4% for... Duncan? Okay...
Title: Re: Suffolk Bellwethers: Lake, OH: R+4; Milford, NH: R+5; Epping, NH: R+2 Post by: Tender Branson on November 06, 2012, 01:25:08 AM Suffolk (probably) sucks.
Title: Re: Suffolk Bellwethers: Lake, OH: R+4; Milford, NH: R+5; Epping, NH: R+2 Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on November 06, 2012, 01:27:37 AM I don't even know who this 'Duncan' is, and Stewart Alexander is unlikely to get 1% of the vote in any county.
Title: Re: Suffolk Bellwethers: Lake, OH: R+4; Milford, NH: R+5; Epping, NH: R+2 Post by: rob in cal on November 06, 2012, 01:48:59 AM Duncan is on the ballot just in Ohio, he was a write in only candidate in 2008. He supports a lot of infrastructure improvements, strong national defense and is pro-life. I'm not sure who he'd be appealing to. I'm suspicious of his large vote, and that he beat out my man Johnson.
Title: Re: Suffolk Bellwethers: Lake, OH: R+4; Milford, NH: R+5; Epping, NH: R+2 Post by: cinyc on November 08, 2012, 02:09:40 AM Lake County, Ohio - Romney +4. Actual result - Romney +2. Not too bad. Duncan received 0.23%, though, nowhere near 4%. Decent job polling, but a terrible bellwether.
Milford, NH - Romney +5. Actual result - Obama +2. Actual statewide result - Obama +6. Poll fail. Off a bit as a bellwether, too. Epping, NH - Romney +2. Actual result - Obama +3. Poll fail, though at least within the margin of error. One point closer to being a good bellwether. |