Talk Elections

REQUIRED VIEWING (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lt35BYEOlEw)

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So everyone, think Barrow will hang on? How about that Charter Schools amendment? Will Democrats have a chance at anything in 2014, or 2016? Just how much is our state trending to the left?

Discuss!

Good luck...

...PEACH-BREATH FOOLS

oh yeah well

our state's official sweet onion can beat up your state's official sweet onion

The charter schools amendment will fail, King county/Seattle will bring it down in the end.

Oh wait..  what is this place??!!


Also Walla Walla Sweets are much better than whatever dribble of an onion you have down there.

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I think the Amendment will be very close, but I'm leaning toward saying it will pass. There's a stranger divide on just exactly who is supporting this. There will be plenty of white, rural Republicans that vote against it and plenty of black, urban Democrats that vote for it.

GREAT NEWS!


http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2012/11/05/black-voters-cast-more-than-one-third-of-1-9-million-early-georgia-ballots/ (http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2012/11/05/black-voters-cast-more-than-one-third-of-1-9-million-early-georgia-ballots/)

2008 Early Vote:

White: 60.4%
Black: 34.9%
Other: 4.7%

2012 Early Vote:

White: 59.0%
Black: 33.7%
Other: 7.3%

Any way you could guess the final margin for this?

WOW.

Only 40% of "other" voters voted early in 2008.

Assuming the same trend holds this year, it's entirely possible that we might see a total electorate of something like, 60% white, 30% black, 10% other.

Oh, we would've come so close were it not for those pesky northern Georgia counties! I've completed a performance increase map (non-Atlas colors); what was interesting was that at least half of the counties did not give more than 1.5 points in one direction or another. Romney - as of this post - received 1.33 percentage points more than McCain did and it would appear a large portion of that originated from NE Georgia.

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Also, I posted this a few days ago in another topic. I haven't been able to find voting results by race yet, but I'm willing to guess based on my graphic below that:

The electorate was approximately 62% white Actual: (61.4%)
Whites voted for Romney 79/20%
Non-whites voted for Obama 91/9%

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I think this is a very good result for Georgia and its future Democratic prospects - especially when you look at the swings throughout the rest of the South.

Georgia Dem/Rep Increase ("Half-Swing"), 2000-2012 (non-Atlas colors)

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Wonderful maps!  Proud to see that my home county (Newton) is part of that Metro Atlanta Democratic trend! ;D

In other news, Charter Schools passed by a disgustingly large 58-42 margin, and the Republicans almost captured a 2/3 majority in both houses of the legislature.  Good God...

Wow, yeah, awesome maps!

And indeed, it was especially bad to see Doug Stoner lose to the GOP gerrymander.

For those who don't know, the composition of a locality's delegation is very important in the Georgia General Assembly. The practice of local deference requires all "local bills" that affect specific counties/cities/etc to first be approved by a majority of all legislators with any part of their district's territory covering that area, before it's considered at all by the rest of the chamber.

The GOP pulled an atrocious gerrymander with Fulton County in redistricting: you can see it in the State Senate map (http://georgiainfo.galileo.usg.edu/pdf/GeorgiaSenateDistricts2012MetroAtlanta.pdf) but it's even worse in the State House map (http://georgiainfo.galileo.usg.edu/pdf/GeorgiaHouseDistricts2012MetroAtlanta.pdf). You see, in the latter map, how HDs 22, 25, 40, and 95 each dip into Fulton County to take in a single precinct? Because of all this, Fulton County is now represented in the House by 13 Republicans and 12 Democrats, and in the Senate by 7 Republicans and 4 Democrats. GA Republicans can now impose literally whatever they want on Fulton County.

Cross-posting this analysis here. As soon as these seats are open (or there's a serious primary challenger) then the number of white Democrats in the legislature will shrink even more than the 12 or so that lost last week. This doesn't bode well for Georgia Democrats' already depleted bench, unless you think a black could win statewide (Kasim Reed maybe?).

Sad to see so many Democrats, black and white, dropping like flies in the state legislature. It looks like we'll have to deal with GOP majorities for many years to come. However, the Georgia Democratic party can still make Georgia competitive at the national level and in statewide races. We'll just have to see what happens.

Indeed. My ideal statewide candidates for 2014 would probably be Kasim Reed for Governor, and John Barrow for Senate; I think they could both have a decent chance of winning. Any idea of either of them have plans for higher office?

I know Reed has said he has no plans during his current term (which ends in Jan. 2014), but it seems fairly likely that he will run.  Barrow seems to have found the ability to barely hang on regardless oft eh political climate, so I'm not sure if he'll be willing to sacrifice his seat.  He'll most definitely be watching the polling over the next year to see if Saxby is still as unpopular as he was in '08.

http://gawker.com/5960846/gop-lawmakers-in-georgia-hold-closed+door-session-on-conspiracy-theory-involving-president-obama-the-united-nations-and-mind-control

WTF, Georgia Republicans?

*Sigh* So glad to see my favorite show, "The Kangaroo Court Legislature," got renewed for another two years!

I figured I'd post this here since the Georgia Redistricting Thread seems to be so far back I couldn't find it.

Yesterday in IRC, Adam Griffin showed me a redistricted Georgia, with ten Democratic seats, which he claimed was inspired by Georgia's 2002-2004 Congressional map.

I found his effort lacking as it didn't overreach nearly enough, or have boundaries nearly insane enough, to accurately claim to be a successor to the 2002 Barnes-o-mander. While it does ignore the VRA, here's my effort at a true Democratic gerrymander worthy of Georgia's history. 11 seats that voted for Obama, only 3 that voted for McCain. Isn't it beautiful?!? ;D

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By how much, though? Unless you're drawing Obama-voting seats that a Democrat should usually win, it's pretty pointless. I'd take 8 56% Obama seats over 11 50% Obama seats any day.

That's rather beautiful, BK.

And you're right, the Republicans have no idea how to gerrymander like the Democrats used to. ;D

Well, that's kind of the point- the Democrats reached for seven seats with the 2002 map, but only got five :P

But here's the margins below! Note that there's definitely room for improvement; what with safe districts next to very marginal districts; this was more a proof of concept than anything.

Cream: Obama +15.4
Dark Blue: Obama + 11.0
Light Blue in NE: Obama + 10.1
Purple: Obama + 9.8
Dark Orange: Obama + 6.4
Lime Green in NW: Obama + 4.9
Light Gray: Obama + 2.4
Light Orange: Obama + 1.9
Light Blue in SE: Obama + 1.9
Lime Green in SW: Obama + 1.9
Dark Gray: Obama + 1.8

Black: McCain + 44.6
Pink: McCain + 49.4
Brown: McCain + 49.6

Here was my far more modest Democratic gerrymander I posted a few months ago:

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Most likely a 7-7 map.

Children, step aside and let a man show you how to draw a map. a 12-2 Obama map that is.

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District 1: Obama 23.4%, McCain 75.%
District 2: Obama 50.1%, McCain 49.3%
District 3: Obama 49.6%, McCain 49.6%
District 4: Obama 49.6%, McCain 46.6%
District 5: Obama 49.8%, McCain 49.4%
District 6: Obama 50%, McCain 49.1%
District 7: Obama 60.2%, McCain 39%
District 8: Obama 49.7%, McCain 49.6%
District 9: Obama 49.8%, McCain 49.5%
District 10: Obama 49.9%, McCain 49.6%
District 11: Obama 49.7%, McCain 49.5%
District 12: Obama 50%, McCain 49.5%
District 13: Obama 49.8%%, McCain 49.6%
District 14: Obama 24.3%, McCain 75%

And what does the current map look like in comparison? 

Jbrase's map would crumble like a folding chair during Sandy during 2010, or just about any midterm when black turnout wasn't at 2008 levels. That could end up a 13-1 map with 7 being the only holdout. Even in 2006 black turnout was awful in parts of Georgia, that's why Barrow almost lost a Kerry district during a Democratic wave. My map above was more cautious.

The D districts might not be safe, but they are there lol.

For the record,

Georgia 1992 congressional map:

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Georgia 2002 congressional map:

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Georgia 2006 congressional map:

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Georgia's current map is at the link here (http://www.ga-agribusiness.org/images/E0191701/2011_congress_map.jpg)

Here's a different 7-7 Dem gerrymander of Georgia (7 Dem PVI districts, six of which are quite safe and one of which is safe for its incumbent), maintaining four black-VAP majority districts (three in Atlanta, one in SW Georgia). Definitely could be more rigorous; one of the Atanta districts is still 64% black VAP. At that point I think you'd just be shoring up already safe seats, though.

Anyway. (All demographic data is in VAP; all election data is Obama-McCain 2008.)

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GA-1
31W, 54B, 10H, 3A
78O, 22M

GA-2
34W, 53B, 8H, 4A
67O, 33M

GA-3
27W, 64B, 4H, 3A
78O, 22M

GA-4
49W, 19B, 21H, 9A
62O, 37M

GA-5
55W, 37B, 5H, 2A
54O, 46M

GA-6
52W, 40B, 5H, 2A
58O, 42M

GA-7
43W, 51B, 4H, 1A
61O, 39M

Plus seven very R seats (the Gwinnett-Fulton seat being the most "marginal" at 62% McCain).

I figured Barrow would want a seat that's not too safely Democratic to avoid a primary; 54% Obama in 2008 should be plenty enough to keep him safe without risking a primary, especially as the seat is very consistent with his past Savannah-Augusta alignment where he's well-known. I think this district is actually more Democratic than the 2006-2012 iteration and is way safer than the seat he held in 2012.

As for the other seats... a fourth black-majority VAP seat in the Atlanta metro is not possible without some extreme gerrymandering and extensions out to Newnan and other outer exurbs (even then it might be tough). Instead, I went for a safe D seat in the white parts of Atlanta, north DeKalb and the Hispanic/Asian parts of Gwinnett, which creates a very solid D seat. It could be much more D (there's excess black population in the three black seats), but I thought that was unnecessary, and this map is much neater in the Atlanta metro.

In another decade, a fifth D seat in the Atlanta area will probably be possible, even with four black VAP majority seats, since the black population is growing rapidly and there are a significant number of white liberals and Hispanics in the area who can be combined into a fifth seat.

The other new D seat is obviously the Athens-Macon-Augusta seat, which at 58% Obama is fairly solid though not rock-solid. It's dependent on black and student turnout, unfortunately, but that can't be helped. I boosted the Obama vote significantly by snaking around south Georgia to put black towns in this seat and white towns in the south Georgia seat; with a much more natural border, it would be about 55% Obama (still D PVI, but much less so).

Any questions?

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It's time for the first edition of

GEORGIA 2014 RACE WATCH

• Chambliss is obviously running for reelection and has $1.4 million in the bank.
• Tom Price sounds like he's willing to jump in the race, especially after he lost the vote for GOP Conference Chairman. He has $1.5 million in his campaign account.
• Erick Erickson is giving "prayerful consideration" to a Senate run after being approached by "Serious People" about it. Sounds like he'll run.
• It's fairly obvious at this point that Karen Handel is in; she's having her surrogates test the waters in a major way.
• Paul Broun has also left the door open for a Senate run. Graves is another question mark.
• Gingrey, Westmoreland, and Kingston have explicitly said they weren't in.
• The Reverend Doctor Herman Cain is not running (http://dailycaller.com/2012/11/28/herman-cain-not-interested-in-u-s-senate-seat/). :(
  
  Also, on the Democratic side, John Barrow has ruled out any possibility of running for statewide office in 2014.
  
  

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  It's looking like a very exciting race. Norquist is after Chambliss's head and nobody else really likes him anyway so the Republican Primary for Senate is looking like the headline match. I don't know of any GOP challengers to Nathan Deal (it's looking likely that he'll run for reelection).
  
  I don't know of any Democratic candidates for either race. With Barrow taking his name out of contention, the only people I can think of are Kasim Reed and maaaybe Jason Carter. It's also possible that a former office-holder like Thurbert Baker or Roy Barnes (lol) might try to run again?
  
  

Well, damn. Running against whoever comes out of that trainwreck of a primary would have been the smart move to make.

Is it safe to say Deal will win re-election, or are people realizing how big of a scumbag he is?

Erickson said he's not running for Senate.

Price, Handel, or Graves, I really don't care. Any of them would be better than Shameless.

(I throw in Graves purely for his PATRIOT Act extension and NDAA votes.)

While it doesn't look like any significant names are considering it, he's not exactly popular among significant elements of the state GOP. It's possible but doubtful.

However, if Kasim Reed runs for Governor he'll be able to make a race of it, at least. Edit: Kasim Reed has stated he's running for reelection in 2013 and has ruled out a Senate run, but didn't say anything about a run for Governor.

Reed is the only viable candidate for this race it seems, he's somewhat popular among Republicans (not that it'd make much difference), and Deal has never been part of the GOP "in-crowd" here.  It would be a nice race, at least. :)

Notable: PPP polling is gonna come out with a GA primary poll soon, they polled Price and Broun against Chambliss on the GOP side and Barrow, Reed and Jason Carter on the Dem side (assuming for senate dunno about Gov).

I don't think Barrow, Carter or Reed are going to run for either though (Carter may in 2018 or 16 senate seat, Reed may not ever move beyond Mayor of ATL, Barrow has base issues and prolly just stays where he is unless he were to lose)

 

Ugh, why would they not poll Handel? How disappointing - she's my favorite to win this seat, but I don't know if she can get past the good ole' boys of the GOP with the run-off system.

I don't see what part of the electorate Handel fills though, the people that would vote for her probably aren't *that* upset with Chambliss given that she was always viewed as a more moderate southern Republican rather than a Tea Party Republican.

Sure she got some ultra conservative bonafides over the Komen/PP thing but that isn't enough to make her capture the wing of the electorate that really hates Chambliss and won't vote for him in a primary no matter what.

I just don't see how her issue stances will come down that far to the right of Chambliss, thus he will just say "why are you running"? compared to someone like Tom Price who has an actual bone to pick and is right of Chambliss on issues.

On the plus side she does do ok in Metro ATL counties, so maybe she could pick that off from Chambliss, I'm ot sure

Now, I'm long term cynical of GA Dem prospects to win anything statewide barring a major scandal plagued candidate running on the GOP side or a super conservative zealot like an Akin and the main reason why is they have hit a ceiling it seems, and they don't wanna do anything about it until "demographics" kick in.

Dems are stuck at 45-47% during  Prez election years with an Obama coalition turnout, and in off years they dip down below 46%, they don't seem to have any agenda or plan or effort in place to win the other 5-7% they need to win a statewide race and they are disorganized off the hilt.

They have no bench to really speak of, and they botch a lot of the state house/senate races too.  I mean they couldn't even recruit enough candidates for office this year, if every Democrat who had ran for state senate and state house this year had won, the Democrats still would not have a majority in the state legislature, that is plain crazy.

The people they find to run are often less than stellar anyway, and the district packing the GOP has done sure hasn't helped matters. It just seems plain impossible to get over the hump.. especially when all you can find is weak candidates to run against openly corrupt members of the legislature, who even the GOP doesn't like very much.

As for the congressional seats, in a district that includes the quite liberal Athens (UGA) the state party still couldn't find a candidate to run against Paul "pits of hell" Broun (even just a token candidate), The metro ATL based districts of Price and Woodall aren't even close though they really could be, and they didn't even bother to really try in the 2 north GA seats.

They just seem content to have their majority minority seats+Barrow and not bother beyond that.

I didn't even mention the fact the State Party has horrible fundraising and is always chronically short of cash compared to the well endowed GA GOP, and again is always infighting, yet the same people that don't seem to ever get the job done keep trading seats and positions.

Then they have a big super party every time they win some podunk nonpartisan mayors race or something, celebrating abysmal performance overall.


I also tend to think there will be a much weaker field than Dems expect for the Senate/Gov races, very likely to get retreads like Thurmond or Baker running again, being handed the nomination in soft primaries, then losing by 10 points in the general elex.  

Plus Dems have a bit of a racial issue, in the sense that a majority of the primary electorate is now black/hispanic but a majority of the state electorate is still white (the long term white flight from dems to gop in the south has hurt the party diversity).  The black/hispanic electorate is going to want a certain type of candidate, that may not be best for a statewide election, and the way a primary campaign is going to go would be vastly different from a general elex campaign.

Throw in the ATL and Athens white hipster liberal types.. and you just have a mess, a real motley crew, one group wants conservative moderates, the other wants ultra "liberal" firebrands who praise Obama at every turn and shouts epithets at the Tea Party, and the 3rd group wants people focused on diversity issues.. and it is gonna be hard to find a candidate that seemingly manages to do all 3.

Personally I just want relative moderates who have populist tendencies (non corporate, non bought) are involved with the issues of the minority communities (immigration, equality, poverty, housing, unemployment etc.) but still manage to talk to the state as a whole and can win not just the metro areas but the rural areas as well.

Not to mention not being unpopular (Roy Barnes) and a retread.. and they have to have enough energy to campaign, they can't just sit back and not bother.

And for the record my favorite recent GA candidates were people like Carol and Dubose Porter, David Poythress, Rand Knight, Dale Cardwell, Brian Westlake, Michael Mills etc. those are the types I think can win, yet most of them didn't make it out of primaries and we ended up with much weaker candidates.

Carol Porter was a political novice in a really tough climate (2010) but still managed to garner some GOP support, which was quite amazing given the climate and the partisan split, I thinks he would have won in a non GOP swing year.

Ironically it seems like these same people are either giving up on politics are getting pushed away from the party. I just don't like the elitism that I think has taken hold,

I mean it is all fine and dandy Obama won the national election, but he didn't win the state.. and  hooping and hollering you got the same total you did in 08 isn't that grand.

Excellent analysis nolesfan! And welcome to the forum!

I agree that the state Democratic Party just appears to be in shambles; it's been a decade but it still feels like the party just doesn't know what to do with itself now that it's not eternally in power. I'm hopeful for the future, but it always feels like the party's resurgence is always just one more cycle away.

More funding is essential, of course, but it's a bit hard to get money when you can't get results. Perhaps the party needs a couple of self-funders to run and win (or at least make things genuinely competitive) to prime the pump in that regard. There are tons of big corporations centered in Atlanta- maybe the Democratic Party could get the CEO of a big-name company to run, with a campaigned focused on being a party outsider. Of course, this assumes that the GA Dem's aren't horrible at candidate recruitment, which is yet to be proven.

On that note, a lack of financial support is why candidates like DuBose Porter and David Poythress got nowhere- they barely had enough money to even have a token campaign in the primary. I was an early supporter of Poythress and convinced some of my friends to vote for him, but at the same time I could tell from early on that his campaign wasn't likely to go anywhere.

The thing is, the people you're talking about aren't really getting pushed out of the party, necessarily- the GOP has done it. The 2012 map was absolutely toxic for Democrats in the General Assembly- IIRC there's only like three seats where a white Democrat is representing a majority white district. Everything else is Republican districts or black districts; this caused a ton of damage among what was left of the conservative Democrats in the Assembly.

The party's biggest problem is that we really have no bench. We have no statewide officeholders and our caucus in the legislature is pretty much just Jason Carter, a bunch of African Americans in VRA seats, and a handful of white liberals that'll be replaced by African Americans when they retire. Not saying that black legislators are automatically incapable of running a good statewide campaign, of course, but I doubt that a politician who's never had to appeal to a white constituency will be an easy sell in most of the state.

Don't knock Thurbert Baker, though. He's (sadly) probably the best candidate we have for Senate. It's worth noting that he was a black Attorney General in a southern state for a decade, which is remarkable in itself, and in 2006 he had the best margin of any Democrat statewide. He was even endorsed by a bunch of conservative organizations like the Georgia Sheriff's Association so he's definitely got some credible moderate appeal.

I wish I could do more to volunteer or something but there isn't really a local Democratic Party in my area- which, actually, probably says a lot in itself.

Interesting analyses, guys. :)

What do you think will happen first-Georgia becoming a purple state at the Presidential level, or the Georgia state Democratic Party recovering? My money's on the former. :P 

Demographics alone will keep Georgia Dems above the 45% level with even below average statewide candidates, but it won't get them over the hump.  Who knows though, in 2016 depending on how the map looks, if the Dem nominee has some money to spend they might put some in GA and see what they can do (same applies to Arizona), just bypass the state party and hire their own state staff and stuff.

Especially if that nominee has some blue collar appeal (like a Clinton, Schweitzer, Sherrod Brown), don't see someone like a Cuomo or an O'Malley doing that though.

Thanks man, appreciated.

and yea they do seem unsure what to do with themselves, they aren't even that effective in the opposition, and have a hard time deciding what to oppose/support and what to protest about and what to not make an issue over.

The CEO idea sounds fine, but I don't know any GA CEO's/business leaders who are really politically involved Dems? maybe people from the black business community? certainly not anyone from Chick-Fil-A :D

They are horrible at candidate recruitment though, from county level up..

I agree about the money thing, they never even had a chance.. I also forgot to add to the list of unopposed people, Austin Scott seat, not that it isn't lean R, but it had been held by a Dem for years before 2010 and the Dems didn't even bother to put up a candidate... craziness.

The maps are horrible I agree, the problem is the Dems caucus wasn't unified and didn't raise hell about it, because to be bluntly honest, the black members of the caucus were fine with the maps because it gave them incumbent protection (cause of all the minority seat packing). So they just rolled over and let the white Dems get shafted out of seats, and hurt the party as a whole.

The white liberals in the legislature, and a lot of the AA leaders are fine but the problem is they are just kind of stuck where they are, not really likely to lose their jobs, but not likely to move up the ladder either, regardless of ambition.

Baker just seems uncharasmatic and boring... I some random party activist type would run just to raise attention to issues and maybe catch fire, doesn't have to be an elected official, just someone who would be able to get in the primary debates and tour the state and stuff, see what happens.

The problem is, Dems in this state don't seem to have enough of an "indie" streak in them, their isn't a lot of Joe Manchin, Jon Tester, Bob Kerrey, Heidi Heitkamp types who just run off the issues of their state/region and ignore the national party and national party leaders, which is why they don't win.

People too obsessed with "defending President Obama" while getting crushed, instead of running off the issues of the state.. I mean just take a look at the state party website, it ain't much different from the DNC site, which isn't good at all.

Meanwhile Jon Tester is running off issues like delisting wolves.. and he wins in a (light) red state.

Failure in rural areas is an issue too.. given that I am involved in the party, and have been involved in the party (mostly at the county level) I won't comment too heavily on individual counties but yea I see your point.

Like Colorado and Virginia, a national candidate spending money and trying to support registration efforts could help get out a lot of Democratic votes too. There are a lot of people who don't vote because they feel their vote doesn't count due to the electoral college and also because they aren't interested in local races. These people tend to be Democratic leaning.

My personal politics and my personal experience in the state, and the state party is a microcosm of what is wrong really. Their is a disconnect between the interest groups that do good work (like unions, enviro groups, NAACP etc.) and the official "democratic party" that demands loyalty oaths and litmus tests, they hate boat shakers..

That is helpful, I tend to view an effort like that as being like the Nevada GOP and the Romney camp though.  Nevada GOP was so messed up it dragged down separate Romney efforts in the state, even though they tried to go around the party.  Dean Heller won though..

At least the GA Dems aren't as bad off as TN, AL, MS and LA dems though. we're "lucky"

Price and Woodal's districts are way too Republican than they should be. They have a growing minority population and a ton of soft Republicans who vote GOP but are fine with things like gay marriage. A pro business Democrat, maybe a CEO, who possesses an air of independence on economic issues while holding the party line on social issues could certainly give Price a run for his money in the affluent 6th district, although I'm not sure he or she could win- just give the GOP a good scare.

Another thing that caught my eye. Obama lost Georgia by 300K votes. Which is a lot, but I can almost guarantee you that there are at least 300,000 or more Democratic leaning minorities out there (blacks, hispanics, asians) who could close the gap if they just bothered to register and vote in elections. Maybe making Georgia competitive isn't just about winning over moderates, maybe it's more about activating the fast growing minority population.

I have another question for you guys about the game plan: Should the Democratic Party here in GA try to fuse a coalition between minorities, Atlanta, and moderate suburbanites as we have seen in places like Virginia (NoVa) or should they try to appeal again to white voters in rural Georgia?

On the one hand, the moderate suburbs could be low hanging fruit if the Democrats here made a play. They're probably most likely to be turned off by the antiquated social views of the GOP. We've seen the same plan work in Northern Virginia and the Research Triangle. Many suburban areas of Atlanta are just as affluent and well educated so it makes some sense.
   
On the other hand, the Georgia GOP is increasingly becoming dominated by tea party types in the suburbs and exurbs (the "no new taxes EVER" crowd). Perhaps Democrats could convince rural voters that the Georgia GOP isn't taking care of their needs anymore. It seems to me like these voters in poorer areas are actually fine with activist government if they think it benefits them- one of the reasons Sanford Bishop does so well and John Barrow held on to his seat this year.

Whaddya think?

Yep I agree, if only the Dem candidates had any money to compete in those type of races.

Registration drives are critical but Dems still need to realize they are gonna have to win some more of the white vote to win the state, especially white men. Even if it is just suburban whites that would make the difference.

I think they should go try and get the rural vote again, simply because GA isn't as split of a state as VA, CO and NC are. It is still considerably more "southern" than either of the states that went for Obama in the south. So you can't just fuse a coalition of increased minority turnout coupled with affluent whites (mainly northern blue state expats, NOVA is like Maryland really).

The GA GOP is also having an identity battle between the rural and suburban Republicans, and the ones who are socially based or economically based. Romney Republicans vs. Santorum Republicans basically and on some issues like immigration, they have sided with the suburban Republicans over the rural ones.

With the immigration bill, they ticked off a lot of otherwise socially and economically conservative farmers who relied on the cheap labor undocumented immigrants provided, in favor of the suburban Republicans who were hollering about "benefits" and stuff.

The problem is Dems never made a play for that crowd, and messaged horribly, focusing on "racism" and "bigotry" related to the immigration law, rather than the economic and social impacts, which white voters especially rural ones are more concerned about.

Those farmers and such were never reached out to.

And yes South and Central GA does have rather high poverty rates among both whites and blacks, and plenty of people utilize medicare/medicaid, food stamps etc. even while the GOP rants and raves against them, its Dems who stick up for those programs. But again that point is never made and people aren't reached out to.

I would think that a lieberdem of sorts would be the best bet for what the dems could run in GA.

Only if you want an actual theocracy in the state of Georgia.

I find the concept of Baker or Reed for either Governor or Senate interesting, but I still believe that we are not at the point where we can elect an African-American as a Senator or Governor. Other statewide offices seem to be less affected by race. I'm still going for a long-shot Jason Carter or hell, maybe even Carol Porter (although her and Dubose are divorced now).

Does Jason Carter is of any relation to Jimmy Carter, this being Georgia?

Jason is Jimmy's grandson

PPP GA senate poll is out http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/12/chambliss-vulnerable-in-a-primary.html

"Only 38% of Republican primary voters say they want Chambliss to be their nominee next year, compared to 43% who would prefer someone more conservative. But Chambliss stomps most of the people who've shown the most interest in taking him on. He leads Congressman Paul Broun by a 57/14 margin in a head to head, has a 50/22 advantage over Congressman Tom Price, and leads former Secretary of State Karen Handel 52/23."

"By far and away the Republican who would pose the greatest threat to Chambliss in a primary, if he changed his mind about running, is Herman Cain. Cain would lead Chambliss 50-36 in a hypothetical match up. Cain has a 68/20 favorability rating with GOP primary voters, which compares quite favorably to Chambliss' 45/36 approval spread. Other long shot candidates we tested against Chambliss were Allen West, who trails 47/26, and Erick Erickson who trails 51/22."

"Chambliss is extremely weak with Republicans describing themselves as 'very conservative.' 61% of them would like to replace him, compared to only 23% who would like to see him nominated again. He would trail Cain 68/19 with that group of voters."

"In terms of the general election the Georgia Senate race is somewhat reminiscent of the Indiana contest this cycle- if Chambliss is the nominee the seat is probably safe for the GOP, but if someone far to his right wins the primary the Democrats might have a chance if everything goes their way.

The only Democrat who comes particularly close to Chambliss is 2002 foe Max Cleland, who despite being quite popular with a 50/27 favorability rating, only musters a tie at 45. Chambliss leads former Governor Roy Barnes 48-40, Congressman John Barrow 50-37, Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed 52-37, and State Senator Jason Carter 52-34. Those folks are all of a higher caliber probably than who the Democrats will be able to get to run, and they still don't come all that close.
The reason Chambliss does so well against all of those folks is that he actually has a fair amount of appeal to Democrats. 28% approve of him, a lot more crossover support than we see for most politicians these days. If Chambliss was taken out in the primary, it's likely the Republicans would end up with a nominee who doesn't have that going for them. We tested Tom Price against all the Democrats as well and he would trail Cleland 47-39 and Barnes 46-40 while leading Barrow only 40-38, Reed 43-38, and Carter 42-36. It could have the potential to be a race if Chambliss does get primaried."

"-Chambliss' cross over appeal to Democrats would make him hard to defeat in a general election. But given the very real possibility of him losing to an extreme conservative candidate in the primary it might benefit Democrats to get a Joe Donnelly caliber candidate who doesn't have a lot to lose into the race, just in case..."

So in short, though the GOP alternatives save Cain and Handel probably have lowish to medium name recognition, they are still trailing, though they haven't announced they are running so I dunno.

Broun wouldn't win, West won't run, Erickson/Cain aren't running, I do think Price could win though and I don't see where Handel would fit in all this.

Nathan Deal also declined to fully endorse Chambliss the other day.. saying it was "too early" basically, which isn't a good sign when the sitting governor is cautious to endorse the sitting senator. (Deal is under no real primary threat though).

Also worth noting State Senator Chip Rogers is going to resign to "spend more time with his family" so maybe he will primary Chambliss?

On the Dem side, Cleland is old he isn't going to run, Barrow and Reed probably don't want to lose their jobs to run, especially Reed who has a lot of influence as mayor of a big city like Atlanta and doesn't wanna give that up for an underdog senate race.  Same goes with Carter who is still trying to move up in his political career and can't afford a setback.

Barrow also has party base issues, so may have unity problems, not to mention Chambliss is picking off 1/4th of Democrats which is just not good, and shows how weak the party still is because of poor messaging and agendizing.

I really think Dems are gonna get a weaker candidate than they realize.. maybe ex- blue dog central GA rep Jim Marshall who is out of a job and has nothing to lose or Thurbert Baker who is also not in elected office.  

Even if Tom Price is the nominee, I still don't see Dems beating him because they won't have the money for one thing.

Chip Rogers's district is within Tom Price's House seat, for the record. Rogers is in a good position here because he can run for Congress if Price challenges Chambliss, or run for Senate if Price doesn't! He'd easily be the frontrunner for a GA-06 special election, and with his relatively high profile and conservative record in the General Assembly as Majority Leader he'd easily become the Tea Party candidate and Chambliss's main opponent.

Also, LOL in at that PPP poll. Allen West, who doesn't even live in the state, gets double the support of Handel and Price, two candidates who are actually serious about running! Honestly, though, it's far too early in the process for things like this to matter much, before Chambliss's opponents have even had a chance to campaign or boost their name recognition. As far as the Republican primary goes, the only number that really matters is that only 38% of Republicans actually want to keep Chambliss versus a generic "more conservative" alternative. This non-Chambliss majority will be easy pickings for other candidates when they start campaigning. Remember that Price actually has more money than Chambliss in his campaign account right now, and that Handel also has a record of being a strong fundraiser. At this point, I'd even say it's more likely than not that Chambliss loses in the primary.

I suppose the fact that a majority of the GOP would vote for Cain might also be meaningful, if it's enough to persuade the Reverend Doctor Herman Cain to restart the CainTrain Express and run for the seat. We'll see if it does, I guess.

As far as the general election numbers go, though, they are surprisingly very promising! Chambliss and Cleland tied? Barnes six points ahead of Price, and Cleland eight points ahead of him? Granted, it's probably fool's gold, as the crosstabs show that the undecideds in all those matchups skew towards conservatives and Romney voters. Still, it does show that some electoral potential exists.

In regards to fundraising, nolesfan, one would assume that the DSCC would be dropping a lot of money into this race if the polls keep showing this race as competitive in 2014, especially if Chambliss goes down in the primary. Also, I'd imagine a heated Chambliss v. Price v. Handel primary would cause all three to spend a ton of money and go very negative, so the eventual nominee will have a damaged image and much less money than most Republicans would have saved at that point.

Hell, at this point I wouldn't mind seeing Roy Barnes run for this Senate seat, just because he's good at fundraising and would probably clear the field. It'd be nice for a Georgia Democrat to have a financial advantage, not to mention a year-long head start in campaigning for the general election (remember, primary runoffs aren't until August! ;D).

Speaking of Chip Rogers:


http://www.myfoxatlanta.com/story/20259570/outgoing-ga-senate-leader-chip-rogers-resigns (http://www.myfoxatlanta.com/story/20259570/outgoing-ga-senate-leader-chip-rogers-resigns)

OH YEAH! I had forgotten Chip Rogers and Tommie Williams pulled that coup against the Hall County Boys.

Yeah, no doubt Cagle gets all his authority back, either directly or via proxy: the State Senate leadership is once again firmly in the hands of the Deal/Cagle/Ralston triumvirate that currently commands the GA GOP. It looks like Rogers and Williams both stood down because they could sense the inevitable, while their coup colleague Bill Cowsert resoundingly lost his PPT bid to David Shafer, a staunch Deal/Cagle ally. Nathan Deal's senior floor leader in the Senate, Ronnie Chance, is now Majority Leader, while his other floor leader, Butch Miller (from Hall County itself!), is now Caucus Chairman.

Do you think a lot of what you said here (rural vs. suburban split) can be applied next door to the Alabama GOP?  

Ah yes, the triumvirate. ;D

Alabama doesn't have as many suburban Republicans, since it's a largely rural state. The only largely suburban area that packs some punch would be Shelby County, a bedroom community for Birmingham. But that group pales in comparison to rural conservatives.  By and large, Alabama Republicans are likely to stay united in the future because they're much more dominated by rural interests.

This doesn't exactly answer your question, but the GA Legislature is more clearly divided between Senate and House Republicans, with the Democrats be almost completely insignificant. This isn't exactly the answer you were looking for, but the entire party in the legislature is very divided.  

Also, regarding the rural/conservative split in Georgia- the next Democratic nominee for governor or senate needs to make an issue of the immigration law, but paint it in economic terms instead of social. Someone mentioned this earlier, but there are a lot of rural GOPers who really don't like it.

I was working for my college news station last year and I was assigned to do a story about the economic impact of the law. We drove about 20 minutes out of Athens and went to a pine straw business. We walked in, there were bucks heads mounted on the walls, the TV was set to Fox News and the owner came out dressed head to toe in camo.

He then told us that he was a hardcore Republican but absolutely hates the law. He told us that a few weeks prior, INS came to the pine forest where his workers were harvesting straw and rounded up about 10 of his illegal immigrant employees and immediately deported them and told him he had to call the workers' families and inform them of the deportations. Not only did he mention the financial loss but he also got emotional when he talked about making those calls. He was pissed, and I'm sure a lot of people like him still are.

^^^ I agree entirely cope. Last year, after the immigration bill first came into effect, South Georgia had a record drought with an unprecedented degree of crop failure, but the labor shortage was so bad farmers STILL didn't have nearly enough manpower available to pick everything before the harvest season ended.

Could that give the Democrats an opportunity in South Georgia?


Its the Feds fault all the way around. If they had dealt with the issue, none of the states would be doing this.

Not in the short run, no.  The GO has really ensconced itself in the lower half of the state, and it's not really a possibility that effective inroads can be made there in the near future.  In general, voters down there don't really connect (or do, but don't care anyway) their anger with their policies of the Republicans and their ability to vote them out for the Democrats.

Yep, Alabama (and Mississippi and Louisiana) has much less of a urban/rural divide, they are simply states that are more rural.  Georgia just happens to have Atlanta metro area+ a few other decently sized cities.  Georgia is also the largest state in the deep south, and really the Tennessee GOP is more like the GA GOP, that would be the best comparison.

Very good point on the immigration stuff, I disagree that South GA isn't reachable though, the problem is the state party (and by proxy its candidates) don't seem to message well at all.  When the law was being debated they spent for time rallying about "racism" and "racial profiling" and "hate" instead of about economic impact and impact on the state's "job creators" (farmers, restauranters, other small business).

The focus on hispanics and race seemed to get x2 as much as attention as the economic issues did (probably influenced by the demographics of the state party at this point).  Meanwhile the farmers and business owners were pleading that the law would be a disaster (and disparaging their Republican elected officials who wanted to replace migrant workers with prison labor).

The Dems could have stepped up and been a strong voice of opposition for the farmer, the old populist/greenback party messaging of little guy vs. the big guy, but they didn't.

I still think it is reachable though if the candidates message better and differently, and especially get away from the Metro Atlanta orbit.

The problem with the packing of the Dems is that they all got packed into Metro ATL+ a few other larger cities and don't seem to understand rural Georgia anymore (They get crushed in far north GA too). They think Georgia is just "modern" Atlanta+ a bunch of backwards rednecks (Yes, I've heard this sentiment expressed before at Dem meetings) and they don't even try.

Really Dems could get a lock on both the hispanic vote, and the rural vote if they handle it right, different messages for different audiences. The fact is though, many white voters probably feel the Dems are just accusing them of being racists and nobody wants to hear that.

We need to be encouraging unity not just us vs. them. '

Plus connect a personal level (like that story you mentioned about the pine straw guy). The big thing is though, in a lot of these rural seat races, the Dems aren't even running candidates anymore, and the GOP is running unopposed.

Lastly, the State Dems are still too obsessed with national issues and orbit than the local stuff. They need to be acting like West Virginia, North Dakota, Nebraska, North Carolina etc. Democrats.  Rally around local issues and concerns (like the immigration issue, education, college funding etc.) instead of "make the rich pay their fair share!" "stand with our President" memeing all day.

I mean just look at the State Party facebook page https://www.facebook.com/georgiademocrat. A majority of the posts are about Obama/Romney and Boehner/House GOP.  Not even state level stuff.  That just doesn't connect with people when 55% of the state is conservative/Republican. 

They also bash the GOP more than they run off their own issues, which again isn't that effective. It just comes off as weak.

On the plus side, they have done pretty well with Women (probably do the GA GOP pushing atrocious anti choice laws in the legislature) but they haven't connected with the poor and unemployed as much as they should.

GA has a pretty high poverty rate, across all race and age demographics, meanwhile the GOP has been determined to slash benefits and make it harder for people to qualify (food stamps, drug testing for welfare, education cuts, unemployment benefit cuts, refusal to expand medicaid).  Dems really should be hitting home on those issues, with LBJ/FDR style "we care about everyone" politics.

PPP just released its first GA 2014 Governor poll. The results are at least somewhat optimistic; Deal is weaker than some might have expected.


The numbers look much better when you consider the results of the previous Senate poll:

Barrow vs. Chambliss: Chambliss +13
Barrow vs. Deal: Deal +4

Reed vs. Chambliss: Chambliss + 15
Reed vs. Deal: Deal +7

Carter vs. Chambliss: Chambliss + 18
Carter vs. Deal: Deal +8

Also in the new poll:

• Blacks are more likely to support gay marriage than whites
• Nobody thinks the Falcons need a new stadium, and don't want the government to help pay for it either.
• Tech fans are more liberal than UGA fans.
• Young people in Georgia are extremely polarized. 45% say gay marriage should be legal, but 46% think Georgia should secede because of Obama's election.

I was amazed at the 2008 exit polls; basically it suggested that there isn't that much of a difference between the 18-29 and 65+ crowds:

18-29: 48% Obama, 51% McCain
65+: 46% Obama, 54% McCain

Also, apparently 15% of African-Americans in Georgia want to secede from the union because of President Obama's re-election!

Well you can find black confederate flag flyers using the google search, but 15% of the state?

PPP polls always seem to significantly overestimate black support for Republicans and conservative stuff.

SD 11 could be competitive if a white Democrat from Moultrie with a high local profile runs. Besides that (ostensibly distant) possibility, three safe R special elections, it looks like.

here's a question:

if democrats regain control of the legislature and governorship, will it sort of be like Coleman Young's reign in Detroit which entailed punishing what they saw as the "oppressors"?

Hopefully.

Definitely not. Any hypothetical Democratic legislative majority would be extremely tenuous at best so there's no chance they'd be able to even try anything controversial.

We're never going to beat Washington with this kind of activity. >:(

Chambliss isn't running again! Our earlier hypothetical discussion in regards to the Governorship and the possible candidates correlates pretty similarly to this potential pick-up. Word on the ground is that the DNC is positioning itself to give Georgia greater consideration in the Party (http://www.georgiademocrat.org/2013/01/24/more-great-news-for-ga-democrats/):

• DPG Chair Mike Berlon was elected to serve as the Southern Chair on the DNC Executive Committee
• Sen. Lester Jackson was appointed to serve on the powerful Credentials Committee, which determines membership and participation in the national party

The first one in particular gives me great hope. On the other hand, Tennessee held it last year.

Appears Congressman Phil Gingrey is jumping into the GOP primary for the senate race and the corrupt Casey Cagle is "polling" on it

Former Gov. Perdue isn't running. Congressmen Price, Westmoreland, Kingston, Broun, Gingrey, and Graves are apparently all being talked about as potential candidates, as are Lt. Gov. Cagle and Attorney General Sam Olens. Looking like this race might be crowded as all hell.

In other news, the management of the Falcons is threatening a move to Los Angeles (http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000132470/article/atlanta-falcons-reportedly-receiving-interest-from-la) if they don't get their new stadium!

Breaking: Paul Broun throws his hat in the ring.. announced by his wife at a Gwinnett County dinner of some sort.

So Broun and Gingrey are both in..

WONDERFUL NEWS!!

http://bettergeorgia.pnstate.org/site/MessageViewer?em_id=74721.0&dlv_id=93181 (http://bettergeorgia.pnstate.org/site/MessageViewer?em_id=74721.0&dlv_id=93181)

LOL!

I love the irony that Chip Rogers is getting paid more by the state government than the governor is.

Westmoreland is OUT http://atr.rollcall.com/georgia-westmoreland-wont-run-for-senate/

This is all happening too quickly.

Kasim Reed bows out of Senate race


http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/feb/04/kasim-reed-lynn-westmoreland-bow-out-senate-race/ (http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/feb/04/kasim-reed-lynn-westmoreland-bow-out-senate-race/)

and "Official Senate bid announcement from Paul Broun has been scheduled Wednesday 4pm at the Grand Hyatt in ATL"

I have to ask, did he really say "I just focused on being mayor" or is that a typo?

I don't wanna seem racist, but we can't win with a Black Candidate.

Oh, I agree with you, but people here will probably think it sounds racist. Somebody on this forum chided me for ignoring Thurbert Baker's win in 2006, but he's an exception to the rule. In an extremely racially polarized state like Georgia, you can count on enough black people voting for a white guy but you absolutely cannot count on white people to vote for a black guy. It's just the way it is around here.

I think it's a longshot for any dem to win, but a white democrat has a much better shot, as is the case in most states. There aren't that many Barack Obama's around.

The one notable exception is Sanford Bishop, who routinely gets a large chunk of the white vote in the most racially polarized area of the state. I wonder why nobody is asking him to run...

he's from downstate GA where corruption is not necessarily a liability. In a statewide race, his supposed corruption would be fully on display.

I'm not saying he would win, I'm just saying that he's a Georgia democrat who gets a lot of crossover support from white conservatives.

Also, corruption isn't much of a liability in the rest of the state either, seeing as how Deal would have had to answer to ethics violations in congress had he not resigned to run for governor. But of course he's a Republican so most Georgians just looked the other way on that.

Sanford Bishop gets crossover appeal for the same reason that he gets a pass on his corruption problems- he keeps a low profile and stays out of the limelight. That's why he won't run for the Senate and also why he'd lose if he did.

Also, as for Thurbert Baker, I'll let the 2006 map speak for itself :P

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Despite subpar approvals, Deal leads in actual matchups. (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_GA_220.pdf)

Approval: 36/41

Deal (R)- 46%
Carter (D)- 38%

Deal (R)- 48%
Barrow (D)- 38%

Deal (R)- 48%
Reed (D)- 38%

SENATE CANDIDATE-WATCH
featuring bonus examples of crazy statements!

Paul Broun has already officially declared. He has said before:

"I was the first Member of Congress to call him a socialist who embraces Marxist-Leninist policies like government control of health care and redistribution of wealth."

"All that stuff I was taught about evolution and embryology and the big bang theory, all that is lies straight from the pit of Hell ... You see, there are a lot of scientific data that I've found out as a scientist that actually show that this is really a young Earth. I don't believe that the earth's but about 9,000 years old. I believe it was created in six days as we know them. That's what the Bible says."

Phil Gingrey is also set to enter the race, though he hasn't made an official declaration yet. Quotes:

"[Todd Akin] went on and said that in a situation of rape, of a legitimate rape, a woman's body has a way of shutting down so the pregnancy would not occur. He's partly right on that. I've delivered lots of babies, and I know about these things. It is true."

"Americans are watching as from Iran to North Korea, the forces of darkness are attempting to silence the forces of democracy and freedom. The irony is on this day, the Democratic process and the nation’s economic freedom are under threat not by some rogue state, but in this very chamber in which we stand." (spoken on the floor of the U.S. House in 2009, while debating the proposed rules for debate on a clean energy bill.)

Jack Kingston has confirmed that he will run for Senate.

"I believe I came from God, not from a monkey so the answer is no. ... I don't believe that a creature crawled out of the sea and became a human being one day."

"It is always open season on Christian and on white folks because they are the group you can kick and you can get away with it. It is politically correct."

Tom Price has said he'll make a decision in May, but he's ramping up fundraising and showing plenty of signs he's in the race.

"I’m a big Taylor Swift fan, don't tell anybody. ... I prayed when she started dating a Kennedy that that would end."

(okay, Price is actually pretty good about keeping his quotes within the realm of sanity)

good points

I made this the other week. Not a swing map, but rather, a "half-swing" map for the 2010 Gubernatorial race. :P I'm guessing the huge swings in the urban counties were due to a complete collapse of the party / lower-than-usual midterm turnout in 2006; it'd be fantastic (and probably impossible) if those swings could occur again in 2014.

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Some more food for thought:

()

I should have clarified better in that descriptor; the 'Other' line is labeled as such because Georgia considered you an 'other' if you were not white or black before 2004. I added the totals of each race group post-2002 together and continued the line graph as-is so as to keep consistency.

---

• When we compare the four instances above of presidential turnout change over a four-year period, the average is a 1-point decrease per year in white share of electorate, a 0.5-point increase per year in the black share of the electorate and a 0.5-point increase per year in the other share of the electorate.
• When we compare the four instances above of presidential turnout change versus the following mid-term turnout, the average is a 0.7-point increase in white share of the electorate, a 0.4-point decrease in black share of the electorate and a 0.3-point decrease in the other share of the electorate.
• When we compare the three instances above of midterm turnout change over a four-year period, the average is a 3.3-point decrease in white share of the electorate, a 1.8-point increase in black share of the electorate and a 1.5-point increase in the other share of the electorate.

Basically, from that, I'd be willing to bet a 2014 electorate looks as such ("my numbers"):

White - 62.1-63.0%
Black - 29.5-30.1%
Other - 7.4-8.0%

If each demographic votes based on how it appears to have voted in 2012 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164112.msg3507556#msg3507556), you can project the following onto a statewide race:

(R) = 52.8%
(D) = 45.2%
(L) = 2.0%

>:(

If whites return to giving a statewide Democratic candidate 25% of their votes (which is quite possible), then it looks better:

(R) = 50.2%
(D) = 47.8%
(L) = 2.0%

:( :)

One exciting prospect is the thought of even more Republicans voting for a Libertarian candidate for Governor in 2014. Those Libertarian estimates are low; in the past two Governors' races, Hayes and Monds both got around 4% of the vote.

I don't see a scenario in which Deal loses in 2014. He hasn't really done anything to piss off the GOP base or mobilize Democrats. It might be close but he pulls it out fairly easily. 2018 will be interesting though.

Wow, the 2010-2012 change is pretty insane.

More fun! "Half-swings" for Gov (already did earlier) and Lt Gov, 2006-2010:

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You can really see the influence of Dubose's media machine in Central Georgia in the Lt Gov race. Look at Laurens and Johnson counties!

Laurens/Johnson was DuBose's House district, y'know :P

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/feb/26/new-poll-puts-casey-cagle-top-gop-potentials-senat/#

Doesn't Rosetta Stone were an horrible pollster, last year?
(It's also a former poster and foreign languages methods, but it's irrelevent, even if that name is making more sense for a language thing than a pollster.)

Hahaha, the crosstabs of that poll (https://docs.google.com/file/d/1CWWvFViDBpXrPSSOZM-bRhzrb1KYmUA7dxVT74SPYYeEVDMbhYd8lQyvvWe2/edit?usp=sharing) are pretty ridiculous. 53% of the state lives in the Atlanta metro, including the counties with the most Republican votes in the state. There's no way that 70% of the GOP primary electorate lives outside the metro.

My guess is that the GOP will hold on to the Senate seat in Georgia (though it might be very narrow). 2016 becomes more interesting, but I don't see any Democratic candidate (aside from Hillary) flipping it.

Consider this: Romney got 53% of the vote in Georgia, compared to 47% nationally. Georgia's PVI in 2012 was R+6. It would probably take a Democratic landslide to flip Georgia into the Democratic column.

Georgia will become more competitive, though. Around 2020ish, I'd expect it to be around where North Carolina is now.

I don't see any way Cagle runs - he's stuck.

This assumes that things stay the same and nothing changes. Lets say in 2016 Hillary runs and picks up 30% of the white vote in Georgia, then the state most certainly flip to the Dems. Or what if minority turnout drops considerably in GA in 2016? Then we will probably see GA swing and trend strongly Republican.

You also need to look at Georgia's future growth. If the sunbelt doesn't bounce back then Georgia's growth slows considerably and the politics don't change. Or perhaps Georgia reinvents itself and attracts a ton of high skilled tech and research jobs, which is what is beginning to happen lately. Then the blue trend accelerates here even faster. And none of this takes into account both parties changing. I've finally realized that trying to pinpoint the exact year a state flips is pretty fruitless. You just have to sit back and enjoy the ride.

Is Jason Carter interested for this seat? He's young, he could wait!

I didn't realize high tech and research=Democratic. :P

He should be, the next one isnt open til 2018 and Deal looks competitive for re-election sadly. And unless Broun wins, Carter would have a better chance at winning the Governor's mansion. He down 46/38 with 16 undecided. He's also only at 65% among blacks w/ 20 neutral. If they come home the race would be 40-46. Currently, Deal is getting 14% of the black vote. He'll probably get about 10 percent on Election Day, at most. I believe the Governor's mansion is still an option.

Hmm really? It seems like most of the areas that have seen big growth in tech and research jobs have trended Dem, like Silicon Valley and the research triangle.

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Deal will definitely not get 10% of the black vote. He'll be lucky to get 5%

And the United States Senate elections in 2016? Johnny Isakson will be 71 years old and he could retire. What's more, Non-Hispanic White should represent 58% of the eligible voters in 2016 (62% in 2012). That's why I think Jason Carter should wait 2016, John Barrow is the best candidate we could have if we want to pick up Georgia senate seat in 2014, because he's a conservative democrats and abstentionis higher during a Midterm election for black people.

(I apologize for my spelling mistakes).

IIRC, I read somewhere (maybe even in this thread earlier) that Isakson announced that he will not be retiring in 2016.

Graves is officially out of the Senate race.

http://atr.rollcall.com/georgia-tom-graves-not-running-for-senate/

Well, there goes my district's chance of getting rid of crazy.

Barrow for Senate? He may actually be considering it.


http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/mar/06/your-daily-jolt-evidence-john-barrow-may-be-intere/

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/state-regional/is-gov-deal-vulnerable-in-2014-election-hunt/nWjx4/

Is Nathan Deal vulnerable? Never say never, but probably not.

Dalton mayor David Pennington is looking to running in the primary against Deal. (http://www.11alive.com/news/article/284407/40/A-GOP-primary-challenge-to-Gov-Deal-in-2014-starts-to-take-shape)

Pennington isn't the worst; Dalton is my stomping ground. He's had running for Gov planned since 2010, when he was holding fundraisers for Carol Porter and schmoozing with big cross-over donors. He's more of a Libertarian than a Republican, and he certainly is right - the Republican leadership here has been rather inept. I sincerely hope he primaries Deal.

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/mar/29/bob-barrs-controversial-national-level-campaign-te/ (http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/mar/29/bob-barrs-controversial-national-level-campaign-te/)

Bob Barr wants his old seat back! From R to L to R again.

The Barr campaign team:

• Barr's general consultant hates the Tea Party and has worked for the DCCC.
• The chief strategist was in charge of Oxendine's 2010 campaign (for non-Georgians, Oxendine was the guy who went from unstoppable frontrunner to 4th place finisher in about a month).
• The pollster did the internals for the Gingrich 2012 campaign (who thought Nevada was neck-and-neck, among other silly things).
• The ad-man is the guy who created hits such as "Demon Sheep," "I'm not a witch," "Chinese lady thanks Debbie Spenditnow," "Ben Quayle wants to knock the hell out of things," and "Jon Huntsman rides a dirtbike through the desert for a really long time".

There is no way this campaign ends up with some sort of hilarious implosion!

Maybe Baby Doc can fly up to Georgia to campaign for him!

()() PERDUE SET TO ENTER US SENATE RACE () ()








Nah, not Sonny. His cousin David. :P (http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/apr/02/your-daily-jolt-david-perdue-about-enter-us-senate/)

Michelle Nunn, Sam Nunn's daughter, sounds like a decent alternate (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/04/04/1199037/-GA-Sen-Could-Michelle-Nunn-D-Be-Our-Alternative-To-John-Barrow-D) if Barrow passes.

If Barrow runs, he is a complete idiot.  Georgia is not quite ready for Democrats at the statewide level, especially in a midterm. 

Ok that bit of news is just awesome... now I can't wait for the implosion. LOL

I saw this pic and thought you Geoegia folks might like it! :D

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'Warms my heart.

Don't underestimate the Akin effect. Barrow is known as a Blue Dog, his ad team is incredible, and he is a good campaigner. Meanwhile, on the Republican side of things, you have the man who believes the Big Bang Theory was created by Satan and that Charles Darwin is probably rotting in the Ninth Circle of Hell and a man who actually said that Akin himself was "partially right".

Any other candidate would lose, but John Barrow makes this a race, especially against someone as nuts as Broun or Gingrey.

Are there any non-crazy Republicans running for the nomination for this Senate seat?

Considering how strong the Georgia GOP is, they must have some people that are more reasonable than Broun.

People are saying Karen Handel might run. She was Georgia's secretary of state and lost the GOP primary for Governor in 2010. Honestly, she's about as conservative on most issues as the rest of them, but she cultivated a more moderate image by campaigning against the "gool ol boy" network in the governor's race, thus winning a lot of the wealthy suburbs that are less socon. It all depends on what her campaign focuses on- she could be the moderate alternative to Gingrey and Broun if she keeps up the "gool ol boy" shtick and focuses more on fiscal responsibility. But if she builds her campaign around her almost fanatical opposition to abortion (see Susan G Komen scandal) then she could come across as another Sharron Angle.

So it is possible to envision a scenario where Broun and Gingrey splits the very conservative/Tea Party vote, and allows Handel to win? Because I think there probably are a lot of conservative minded people in Georgia that want to vote for a Republican, that don’t want to vote for Broun or Gingrey. If Handel can seem like a reasonable (and intelligent) candidate, she might win simply by being the only option for a lot of these voters.
I have a question about Barrow. Because he seems like the best candidate the Democrats can field next year. What sort of opposition do you think he will meet in the primary?

Yes it's possible but keep in mind that in Georgia primaries if a candidate doesn't win a majority then there's a runoff between the top two finishers. It happened in 2010. Nathan Deal and several others split the very conservative vote while Handel won with a plurality, but in the runoff Deal beat Handel and went on to win the election, probably because the majority of Republicans in the state are the very conservative type and liked Deal more than Handel. So that could definitely happen again, especially since Republicans here keep getting more and more conservative. Of course that's what I'm hoping will happen.

As far as Barrow goes, there's talk of other Dems entering the race but most don't seem to have the same clout as him. Sam Nunn's daughter is apparently in talks to run but she has very little name recognition. There are a lot of black democrats in GA who may run as well, and they could stand a chance although black democrats don't do well in statewide races lately for obvious reasons. I'm really hoping Barrow wins the primary though, should he choose to run. He knows what it takes to win and I think he could pull it out.

I don't know. Michelle Nunn is starting to sound really good, and she doesn't have the unfavorables that Barrow has. That's why Heitkamp, Tester, Donnelly, and others were able to win in 2012. People liked them. I believe Barrow is underwater statewide. Democrats could go in early and define Nunn as a moderate in the mold of her father and other red-state Dems.

Heitcamp was an extremely charismatic and folksy candidate who ran a stellar campaign based on relating to the average North Dakotan, and she still only won by a few thousand votes. I just don't know enough about Elizabeth Nunn. She doesn't have any political baggage but is she likeable and in touch with the average Georgian, especially those white blue collar folks we need to win? I'll have to find out more about her but I'm still placing my bets on John Barrow- he knows what it takes to win.

Ron Paul endorsed Broun. (http://atr.rollcall.com/ron-paul-backs-paul-broun-gasen/)

I've been LOL'ing all day. It's going to be great to see this buffoon pick up the nomination. Here comes Barrow!

Oh, and on an unrelated (or perhaps somewhat related) note, Organizing for Action is hiring paid staffers in Georgia (http://www.politico.com/politico44/2013/04/ofa-hires-staff-in-states-162640.html#.UXn7DJEGZJI.twitter).

Between this and Sanford, I don't know which insane southern Republican Paul will endorse next.

Paul only got 6.5% of the primary vote this time around, and similar in 08, so he doesn't have a massive base here. Not sure if it really helps Broun with votes, especially since a lot of those Paul voters were probably crossover youth votes too (the same people that wrote in Charles Darwin to protest Broun just a few months later). They don't have the same groups of supporters really.

That being said it helps with fundraising and outside volunteers more than anything I guess. 

Karen Handel email to supporters, H/T Weekly Standard.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/karen-handel-moving-closer-senate_720450.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

State Rep. Scott Holcomb apparently thinking about running for either Gov. Or Senate, but it sounds like he leaning more towards Senate.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/blogs/hotlineoncall/2013/05/holcomb-considering-ga-senate-gubernatorial-bids-01

And here comes Kingston!

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/may/01/jack-kingston-declares-us-senate-and-karen-handel-/ (http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/may/01/jack-kingston-declares-us-senate-and-karen-handel-/)

Apparently Handel is entereing the Senate race (http://romenews-tribune.com/view/full_story/22477375/article-ANALYSIS--Kingston-faces-new-political-dynamic?instance=home_news_lead_story) tomorrow:

Awesome. In other news, Barrow isn't running. National Dem said that Barrow couldn't turn out women and minorities in an off-year.

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/may/07/john-barrow-will-not-run-senate/

with Barrow out, short of Broun winning, not sure how Dems win this.

Maybe this means Michelle Nunn is running? They had a chat a few weeks ago.

Damn you John Barrow. We needed that seat.
Can Michelle Nunn win? Maybe Scott Holcomb?

Another national Dem said Barrow is too conservative to juice the base. Apparently Nunn has made noise before, so they're taking her potential interest with a grain of salt. All the others don't have the statewide network or name ID that Barrow and Nunn would.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/blogs/hotlineoncall/2013/05/barrow-won-t-run-for-senate-as-dems-eye-backup-07

Haven't we had minority and women candidates running in midterm years in this state? And did they ever win or come close to winning??

John Barrow is really dumb, for real.

I'm not mad at John Barrow. This allows him to keep control of his Congressional district, which is more important for now.


If Broun or Gingrey does make it through to the general, then Nunn or Holcomb will be strong enough to win. If Handel, Price, or Kingston is the nominee, then I doubt Barrow could've beat them anyway.

Well, this is awful. Obviously I'm not from the Barrow wing of the party, but I'm realistic: it'd take someone like him to win this seat in 2014 - and that's against Broun. Electorate's bound to be between 61-62% white next year; it's going to take a white conservadem to have a shot.

Barrow, on the other hand, must either think that he'll have a shot at 2016, or doesn't want to be a Senator. Maybe a deal was struck? If he doesn't run in 2016, then he'll probably never get a shot otherwise. The shifts in the state and within the Democratic Party won't be too welcoming to him past then if he doesn't get into the Senate. The primaries that DPG is worried about will become a bigger likelihood by the end of the decade as you have everyone lining up to try to win statewide office.

I'd actually like to see him run for Governor instead, but the state party's saying he will stay in his CD.

As far as Michelle Nunn goes: does she look like the next Senator from Georgia? Maybe - if she doesn't talk about progress, empathy and cooperation.

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Apparently Nunn is stronger in the general election (http://www.politico.com/story/2013/05/georgia-senate-race-john-barrow-michelle-nunn-91072.html?hp=r6) than Barrow:


There are a ton of undecideds, so I'm not sure I'd read too far into it though.

Price isn't running for Senate (http://www.mdjonline.com/view/full_story/22538240/article-Price-won-t-run-for-Senate-seat) after all.

Handel looks more likely to get in, since she won't be able to run for Price's House seat.

Didn't expect the Price to be right given the noise Handel's been making. Hopefully she gets in soon, both would be excellent Senators.

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Apparently Nunn is considering declaring before next week's GAGOP convention.

Per NRO, Handel's entry is a matter of "when", not "if."

http://www.nationalreview.com/node/347960

Yep, and no real room for Price in that GOP field.. he would rather keep house leadership which makes sense.

I don't see a path to victory for Michelle Nunn, even if she is a copy of the wonderful Carol Porter, she didn't win either (against the corrupt and unlikable Cagle) granted it was 2010 but still, both are "strong businesswomen with experience in politics" both will probably do something folksy related to "good government" etc. and I don't see it working.

Handel won't announce before or during the GAGOP convention next Saturday.

http://atr.rollcall.com/karen-handel-senate-run-likely-in-georgia/

Barrow's situation is complex because he's a moderate to conservative Dem and his state appears to be trending left nationally.  If he wants to go statewide, he needs to follow a similar path to Mark Warner and be prepared to drift into line with national D's over the decade if he wins.  I think he is holding out for 2016 and a Hillary run.  He wouldn't need a mentally ill opponent to take that seat in a presidential year.

He could also be eyeing the (presumably) open seat 2018 Gov race.  He would likely have either President Hillary or an R midterm at his back.  He would also get to veto 2021 redistricting if he won, which could be huge for the state party (how viable is holding the GOP under 2/3rds in the legislature?). 

I don't think so. If Handel came out of the Primary, he's out of a job, and more wacko birds and less Tom Price, the better it is for her. I think he's making a smart choice in terms of keeping an already at risk seat.

I agree. It was either in one of the earlier articles or from another source that I read the biggest concern for Barrow was that he would not be capable of elevating turnout or enthusiasm among females or African-Americans, which is obvious. In 2016, Hillary and/or a presidential year turnout could put Barrow in for sure. This arrangement makes the most sense: Nunn now, Barrow in '16. If he doesn't run then, though, it's going to be hard for him to win any statewide race. Maybe Governor, like you said, but I think once Georgia is in the position to flip, statewide races are going to become real Democratic-leaning, real fast.

And for holding the Republicans under 2/3rds with the current maps: yes, but not by much. Effectively, you'll probably still have a 'conservative' supermajority until a few of those House districts break out late-decade.

I'm not so sure about this.  Remember, it took a Republican midterm to really get the process started in VA.  And in NC it started with Obama's near landslide 2008 win, but then you had the concurrent trend of conservaDems abandoning downballot D's there. Georgia seems to be drifting left, but I think it will take a Republican midterm to push it over the edge statewide.

David Perdue, Sonny Perdue's cousin and a businessman, is exploring a gubernatorial run.
  (http://atr.rollcall.com/another-georgia-republican-closes-in-on-senate-race/)

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/may/13/better-georgia-poll-michelle-nunn-would-be-competi/

Better Georgia poll: Jason Carter viable for Gubernatorial run


http://bettergeorgia.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Voters-Concerns-Over-Cronyism-Corruption-Threaten-Deals-Re-Election-Hopes.pdf

I'd prefer Carter here. Though Holcombe would be good too. Minority candidates are a no-no though. Sorry Stacey.

Excellent news.

Handel's in. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/05/17/handel-joins-georgia-senate-race/?wprss=rss_election-2012) :D

What is it that people see in her that makes her such an awesome candidate?  She has minimal electoral experience and was tied to a huge and unnecessary controversy at Komen.  I just don't see what the buzz is about.

She's a female republican

Broun, Gingrey, Handel, and Kingston. David Perdue will probably enter the race at some point. Is there anyone else who has made any noise at all about a possible run? I know none of the statewide officeholders have expressed any interest, but have any of them given a non-denial?

Nunn's getting in early this summer, mid-June earliest. (http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/301883-michelle-nunn-laying-groundwork-for-senate-campaign-in-georgia)

Yeah! An another woman senator is always appreciated!

FWIW, he always struck me as a bit shady - as evidenced by my shifty glances in this 2011 photo (http://i.imgur.com/Qb1iDhi.jpg). :P

This is good, though - fundraising and organization at-large have been pretty pathetic over the past two years. Not that they were great before, but the continued drop-offs in fundraising are just intolerable. He deserved to be sacked for that alone.

EDIT: Maybe a URL to the article would be nice. (http://dgimobile.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=f0e2324ea81b38d1d6273b5ff&id=015d40049b&e=23dff1c639)

An article on GA-12. (http://www.nationaljournal.com/blogs/hotlineoncall/2013/05/john-barrow-and-the-6-million-question-29)

The NRCC's recruitment operation there hasn't been very good; they may need to resort to running past losers:

YES YES LEE ANDERSON AGAIN

(ATL Mayor) Kasim Reed says on Nathan Deal "I believe he's going to be re-elected next year." and tells Dems not to challenge him  http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/may/29/your-daily-jolt-metro-atlanta-white-student-popula/

This is such ridiculous 2 timing by Reed, he is a corporate crook who does not need to be a "leader" in the party, given he is a closet Republican anyway. Deal has been terrible for the state, but Reed obviously doesn't care.

A marginally-good read (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/zac-mccrary/sweet-georgia-blue_b_3385459.html?utm_hp_ref=fb&src=sp&comm_ref=false) on why no other state but Georgia should matter when it comes to Democrats fostering the next swing state:

I wonder if Gingrey will keep pushing the idea of teaching classes on traditional gender roles (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/19/phil-gingrey-doma-gender-roles_n_3466605.html) if he makes it to the Senate.

At this point I can't decide who'd be a better candidate for Nunn to take on between him and Broun.

Probably Broun. Gingrey isn't really crazy I think, he just wants to win the senate race. But Broun,...

Oh hey, getting banner ads at the top of the page for David Perdue!

We had better be praying that the GOP nominee in Georgia IS sane. Because, as much as I want to see my home state become more progressive, I fear that the time is still a few election cycles off. Georgia right now would probably elect a Todd Akin style nut.

At this rate, the DPG is on track to be completely broke by the end of the summer:

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/jun/27/georgia-democratic-party-only-has-15000-bank/

Terrible but I doubt we'll go bankrupt like Alabama did- the only reason that happened was horrible infighting between the old guard, the teacher's "union", and the black caucus, what with deposing leaders left and right.

If nothing else, I figure enough exec board members will pony up enough cash to keep things (barely) functional.

On facebook:
Paul Broun has 40000 "like"
Jack Kingston: 6000
Karen Handel: 8250
Phil Gingrey: 23500

So, good news? :) Broun seems to be successfull with the base!

Well you trended 2 more points to the left and were about 11 points right of center. With all things being equal, Georgia would be about 56-44. I'd say you're about as close as Indiana, Arizona, and South Carolina. You have a ways to go and Obama being black helped him in the peach state tremendously. You know I love how liberals say "it's just a few elections away" when it comes to southern states and Arizona. Actually, both parties are guilty of wishful thinking, but the Democrats do it worse. I see my party do it with New Jersey but unless some of the liberals migrate back to NY, it will remain a purplish blue.

Paul Broun has notoriety out-of-state, though. Gingrey doesn't, however, and considering he's almost as crazy I'll gladly take him as the opponent :D


As much as Obama helped among black voters he hurt among white voters. Hilldawg could win GA in 2016.

I was arguing why she's way overrated by everyone in both parties on another thread. Democrats use wishful liberal thinking to tell themselves she could win just about anywhere and Republicans use fear to scare anyone they can into thinking she'll make things terrible and is unstoppable. I don't think there's many so called racists who would've voted for Obama if he was white unless he didn't have a wild-eyed liberal ideology.

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/jun/18/paul-broun-abortion-vote-could-secure-georgia-righ/


Go  Paul Broun!

This is a little OT, but CT, not NJ is by far the best R opportunity for a new swing state in the Northeast.  Look how hard CT swung toward Romney as opposed to the Obama swing in NJ. CT and GA could both be legit purple in the 2020's if social issues subside.

The GA dems of this forum, would it be possible to vote in the primaries for Paul Broun and to urge your friends to the same thing? :D

Was the 2008-2012 CT swing really that hard though?

2008: 60.6% D, 38.2% R, 1.2% other
2012: 58.1% D, 40.7% R, 1.2% other

The raw votes for Republicans didn't change much compared to the drop for Democrats. 2008 was 998k Obama v 629k McCain while 2012 was 905k Obama v 635k Romney. CT's new same-day registration law starts this year too (http://www.demos.org/press-release/ct-passes-election-day-and-online-voter-registration) so it will be interesting to see how that affects turn-out in 2014 and on.

Connecticut is surprisingly ethnically diverse too: 70.3% non-hispanic white in 2012 (http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/09000.html).

An article about the key issue of the GOP Senate primary: abortion. (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/05/gop-georgia-senate-abortion_n_3551300.html?ncid=txtlnkushpmg00000037)

I observed some silly talk a bit ago in this thread about how someone like Hillary couldn't win Georgia. So here's a spreadsheet (well, an image of a spreadsheet) that will let you compare scenarios for 2016 (1% given to third-parties)!

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I couldn't include every single one, but hey, isn't 99 enough? Also highlighted are the two closest scenarios to 2008 & 2012. If you consider the likely composition of the electorate in 2016 (58-59% white) with Obama's 2008 performance, you'll suddenly realize that someone like Hillary could win the state with 50-51% of the vote - and that's just on momentum - an actual campaign in Georgia would only increase the likelihood of Dems winning the state.

If a Dem can get more than 25% of the white vote in Georgia in a presidential election, it's over.

Well thank God that Dalton will be getting rid of him one way or another!


http://daltondailycitizen.com/local/x405448574/Pennington-files-to-run-for-governor/

What don't you like about his tenure as Mayor? Previous posts on the matter in this thread were rather favorable towards him, though against Deal, anything looks favorable by comparison.

He has been a rather rigid ideologue in how he approaches the governance of the city - far more so than Deal as Governor, who (for what it's worth) understands that some moderation is necessary. In his first year, he did an excellent job at alienating many of those who worked at City Hall and fellow elected officials through his brash attitude and lack of wanting to compromise. He is constantly parroting the same talking point whenever he discusses his (one and only) success - he cut government revenues by 20% and balanced the budget. The budget was barely in the deficit beforehand, so the vast majority of what was cut was not necessary in order to achieve that result.

The only problem is that Dalton has grown by 8% over the past five years and unemployment has went from 5.8% when he took office in Jan 2008 to 15.6% in Nov 2010 to 11.4% as of today. No new public investment (save for a $4,000,000 community center) and no end in sight to the amount of cuts he would like to see in the future. The county did the same thing regarding taxes, but realized this year that property taxes had to be raised once again to continue paying the bills - a massive 40% hike in one year. Pennington and the City Council didn't seem to get the message.


Dalton is heavily reliant upon the carpet and textile industry, and the housing collapse certainly caused the massive spikes in unemployment - the Dalton MSA was the second-hardest hit in the country between 2008-2010. It's not to say that this was his fault, but his part-time management of the city has left a lot to be desired. One major company is bringing 2,000 manufacturing jobs to the city, but this is an off-shoot of one of the major textile companies that has been based here for decades. In other words, he has attracted virtually zilch in new investments and business opportunities for the city. No one here is optimistic about the city's future and if asked about his "successes", most will laugh and proceed to tell you about how terrible the town is and how few opportunities there are remaining outside what textiles jobs are left.

The worst thing that could happen to David Pennington is for Nathan Deal to begin using the comments and thoughts of Daltonians against him. If he's smart (and he is), it'll happen.

EDIT: If there's too much rambling above, don't mind me: this may be the beginning of brainstorming for a nice dossier of generalized assessments. :D

Michelle Nunn meeting Obama soon http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/michelle-nunn-georgia-obama-94045.html

Also in the race for state Dem party chair, Dubose Porter, RJ Hadley, Mary Squires and Doug Stoner are all in full bore.

I'm backing Porter myself with Squires also acceptable, the other 2 have issues. Porter has enough fundraising juice I think to fix that part of stuff and he is one of the few who actually cares about reaching out to the rest of the state rather than arrogantly alienating it.  He can save the party and at least give them some semblance of outreach to the rural areas of the state.

Of course the latte drinking transplant Atlanta "liberals" don't like him for that, dislike his conservative social issue positions, so who knows if he will get anywhere.

Squires isn't bad but I don't see her having the recognition, network and fundraising to really improve the DPG standing, she is nice and moderate though with business background. (amusing note that Dubose ex-wife Carol Dodd Porter endorsed Squires according to an email that was sent out, I like them both still)

Stoner is too conservative for me and he just lost re-election, not sure what you gain with him, fundraising not great either, and he's an Atlanta metro person.

Hadley is not experienced enough, has little or no fundraising recognition that I know of, and is kind of divisive within the party.

Some of the Georgia Democrats on this forum might want to consider not passing up this opportunity to rebuild their state party:

Georgia Democrats Look for New Leader (http://www.rollcall.com/news/georgia_democrats_look_for_new_leader_shop_talk-226372-1.html?pos=hbtxt)

By Abby Livingston
Roll Call Staff
July 15, 2013, 4:07 p.m.

Georgia Democrats are hunting for a new state party chairman who can put behind them the financial and alleged personal legal problems that plagued their former leader, Michael Berlon.

In the past few weeks, a handful of Democrats announced their campaigns for the top job. But they all suffered recent electoral setbacks — a reflection of the party’s troubles statewide in Georgia. The contenders include:

• Former House Minority Leader DuBose Porter unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2010 and has strong ties to the Nunn family, per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. He has solid support within the state committee, according to a Georgia Democratic insider.

• Former state Sen. Mary Squires unsuccessfully ran for insurance commissioner in 2010.

• Rockdale County Tax Commissioner R.J. Hadley is a grass-roots favorite and unsuccessfully ran for Senate in 2010.

• Former state Sen. Doug Stoner lost his seat recently after it was redrawn by the GOP-controlled legislature.

But the field is far from set and others could join the race, cautioned Georgia Democratic operatives. The election is scheduled for Aug. 31.

Nunn is in, she'll formally announce tomorrow. (http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/jul/22/michelle-nunn-declares-herself-us-senate-candidate/)

Game on!

I'll get the chance to personally lobby my county's two state committee representatives tomorrow about this. I think each of the candidates brings a certain unique skill-set to the table - Stoner is popular among moderates and of course brings that youthful vigor, Porter is popular among both moderate and conservative Democrats and would be the best for the massive fundraising efforts that are needed, Squires knows how to run campaigns but otherwise I do not know much about her, and Hadley is very focused on grassroots operations and expanding the playing field outside metro Atlanta.

As of now, I am leaning toward RJ. I'm biased, as RJ is the only one that I know personally, but his dedication to county affairs is something that is truly needed in Georgia (even the larger, more Democratic counties currently have relatively weak Democratic committees/organization). He has taken the time to visit us on multiple occasions and was even gracious enough to sponsor me for the latest YD convention in April. Nolesfan mentioned earlier that he often butted heads with the DPG leadership: true, but when you look at how most of the DPG leadership has operated, it speaks more about their shortcomings than it does his.


:D Now she can go in my sig!

The GA dems, opinion of Sam Nunn?

For Cook: the georgia senate race is now lean republican.

I don't see the GA Democrats beating Deal in the 2014 Governor's race or winning Chambliss' open US Senate seat, but 2018 will be the big test for them to be relevant again.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/08/georgia-question-suggestions.html

PPP will poll Georgia next week.

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 12 h
Sam Nunn has a 56/12 favorability rating in Georgia

Not surprising.

I guess the olds in that poll will see him strongly favorable, while the youngs have not much clue who he is (many undecided).

PPP's crosstabs on this are very weird:


The two age groups 18-29 and 30-45 make no sense.

2018 is the GA Democrats' best bet in taking back the governorship....with Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed (D) as their standard bearer.

Which is why Reed won't run in 2014.

It makes sense. There's a huge drop in name recognition in the 30 to 45 group (the 75% undecided and all) because Sam Nunn's last election was 1990. Anyone who is younger than 41 has never even seen Nunn's name on a ballot, while anyone old enough to have ever voted for him will certainly remember him for his quarter-century in the Senate.

The contrasting result for the youngest demographic is probably just noise from the low sample size (only 11% of respondents were in this age group). Maybe also just recognizing him for the things named after him too?

I posted this in a poll thread, but I made a long off-topic segue into my observations regarding the attitude of rural voters towards the Democratic Party. I figured I'd post it here in the Megathread if anyone would like to read it

Is your family really conservative?
A Nunn victory would be great, Georgia is trending dem so she would be in a better environment 6 years later.

The relatives I refer to are very conservative, yes, but they're not outspoken ideologues or anything. For example, I recall one of my uncles expressing distaste for Paul Broun after he controversially remarked that evolution and the big bang were "lies straight from the pit of hell." He actually completely agreed with what Broun said, but he thought Broun was pandering and "just trying to get people riled up" since, in his view, there's no genuine reason for a politician to address such an obvious truth as if it were something controversial. They're thoughtful people, but the culture down there is very different, leading to a very foreign worldview for me (and probably most of the forum).

Except that it is neither truth, nor obvious and especially amongst the Democratic party, the era of tolerating such opinions is long over since they certainly don't need the state or even these voters to win as long as Atlanta keeps growing. Therefore, they might hate Broun's style and vote against him because of it, but as long as the Democratic Party keeps going the direction that it is going, people with such views will keep voting Republican in federal races because they are the lesser of two evils when it comes to sharing that worldview. The Democrats could change that, but they would have to change their style and the way they look down upon such people in order to do that. Demographic trends discourage that change because the present view is that in four to six years, they won't need them at all to win Georgia.

Republicans are starting to get worried (http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/316489-gop-anxiety-grows-over-georgia-senate-race) about nominating a poor candidate here:

Ya know, I keep hearing this theory that Nunn could win if her eventual Republican opponent veers too far to the right, but I just don't know.

It's plausible since that has happened recently in senate races in Missouri, Indiana, Nevada and Delaware. But when people say "too far to the right" I wonder according to whom? This is Georgia, a state I love but I'm also fully aware of how people think here. Most Republicans will vote for the nominee no matter what they say, and they'll probably agree with them on everything, and they'll probably dig their heels into the ground even more every time a journalist labels them "far right." That's a good thing in the Georgia GOP.

I think the whole reason the Republicans took over here is because the GA Dems could no longer hold those far right views and still get support from the national party, so the Republicans took their place. Sam Nunn, for example, was totally against Clinton's DADT policy. His daughter can't be nearly as conservative on gay rights if she expects to call herself a Democrat.

And really, who are these supposed conservatives who might vote for Nunn? Aren't they the target audience for all this right wing lunacy in the first place? Most of those people haven't voted Democrat in 20 years and I don't think they're about to start now, when the two parties are more ideologically polarized than ever.

I think BK made an important point about his family and their friends agreeing with Broun but dissapproving of him making it an issue on the evolution thing.

It is not that the Republican nominess in Indiana and Missouri were too conservative, it is that they said stupid things, otherwise they both would be Senators right now. Candidate quality and message discipline matters.

There was a point that substantially Ayotte and O'Donnell had the same positions and save for the differences in the lean of their states, the major reason while Ayotte got 60% and O'Donnell around 40% is because the former was a good candidate and the later was a horrible one. Delaware though is too Democratic to elect a conservative Republican, as a 60% Obama state.

Lack of discipline and gaffe making have a long history though on the GOP side and just as much amongst establishment types as amongst tea partiers.

Attention whoring: It was great to meet Michelle Nunn tonight in Dalton, as she came up for a private meeting with about twenty of us. I'm really excited about the prospects of her candidacy - much more so than I was just a few weeks ago - as we were able to discuss both strategic and values-based goals for the campaign ahead. This is a candidate that is forgoing none of the state when it comes to her message and enthusiasm.

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Nice!!

First off, even if the Democrats got back in to change it, Atlanta would go crazy over being carved up like that. Also, the courts would probably kill it, hate to rain on the parade. I do love the possibility though of 12 democratic house districts.

EMILY's List endorsed Nunn. (http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/318681-emilys-list-endorses-nunn-for-georgia-senate-seat)

Georgia's one point trend is nothing significant. If you look at the Bush elections he had a lot of his evangelical base there. The state has never been that far to the right and won't go that close to center. There's really not a trend at least right now.

Former State Senator Steen Miles has jumped in to the Senate primary race on the Dem side  http://wabe.org/post/miles-joins-growing-field-dems-2014-senate-race

Miles seems to be running to the left of Nunn, though GA Tea Party chair Debbie Dooley was there (mainly as part of that Green Tea Party coalition thing).

This psychiatrist guy is also running http://drradforsenate.com/ seems to have a moderate approach and sounds like a typical psychiatrist.

Democrat Stokes to challenge Deal for Ga. governor

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Who? :P

THIS JUST IN FROM NEWNAN, GA - DUBOSE PORTER WINS DPG CHAIR ELECTION ON SECOND BALLOT

A lot of deals were made last-minute - Doug Stoner seemed like a shoe-in based on chatter throughout the state cmte members going into this.

Who is Dubose Porter?  And what do you think of him?  Do you think he can position the GA Democratic Party in the medium-long term to take over the state? 

From what I know, he's a great fundraiser.

She's 59? If that photo was taken within the last 15 years... Wow.

Yeah, among other things. Quite the media mogul in middle Georgia, served in the State House for almost 30 years and minority leader. He has the connections and the ability to revive the party, but the biggest concern throughout all of this was whether he'll be a full-time Chair or not. It's good to see a rural take the seat, though.


She'll actually be 60 tomorrow (from 2010). (https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn1/30055_406544208918_7503142_n.jpg) She apparently bombed at the State Committee meeting/election, though (no prepared speech).

Boom. An empire-sized map for the Empire State of the South.

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Adam, congrats; wonderful work.

'Poor Gingrey: (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/18/phil-gingrey-salary_n_3950687.html)

Anyone else hear about Barge jumping on the GOP side for Governor. That could make things interesting. I would like to see Deal not face reelection without having to work for it.

The head of the Georgia public school system, ladies and gentlemen:

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Honestly though, I really doubt Barge makes much of a dent in the race. He has no political connections, the GOP establishment doesn't care for him, he's shown no evidence of any substantial fundraising capacity (in 2010 his Democratic opponent outraised him 3 to 1) and he doesn't have the wealth to be a self-funder.

Keep in mind he only won the GOP Superintendent primary in 2010 because Kathy Cox, the incumbent and presumptive nominee, unexpectedly announced her resignation six days before the qualification deadline. The primary was then between two random high school assistant principals and John Barge beat the other guy 51%-49%.

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In other news, I've been hearing speculation that Jim Marshal might run for Governor! Anyone have info on that?

Thanks! I actually got the inspiration from your LA map, but it took me a few months to overcome the dread of making it. :P


I haven't heard anything recently, but that doesn't mean much with my ear so close to the municipal ground as of late. ;) He could be a pretty viable dark horse at this point, though.

Politico on Broun. (http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=F58CD30B-35CA-4DBA-89BD-A7B9E6CE8207)

The Atlanta Journal Constitution finds Deal with 49/24 approvals. (http://m.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/sep/20/ajc-poll-shows-nathan-deal-solid-shape/) No actual matchups though.

GREAT NEWS!


http://www.ajc.com/news/news/ajc-poll-support-for-gay-marriage-in-georgia-is-gr/nZ349/

This is hard to believe - I really want to see this poll's results. Stupid subscription won't let me view any more than just the first paragraph, though, so I don't know the numbers just yet.

This is completely unrelated to anything any previous post might have said but here's this great poll about ice cream I just found, it certainly isn't from behind a paywall because posting that here would possibly be illegal

Question 1: “Do you think it should be legal or illegal for ice cream to be legal in Georgia?”
Legal: 48% (strongly 30%, somewhat 17%)
Illegal: 43% (strongly 38%, somewhat 5%)
Don’t know/No answer: 9%

Question 2: “Has your opinion toward ice cream changed over the past few years, or not?”
Yes, has changed: 16%
No, stayed the same: 83%
Don’t know/No answer: 1%

59% of six-figure income earners like ice cream (a quarter of them having decided so in the last two years), two-thirds of adults under 40 like ice cream while olds hate it by a similar margin

<3 u (and 48% of GA is OK w/ that)

I love you, and 48% of Georgians don't have a problem with that!

Awk; Griffin beat me to the joke.

Petition to rename the forum to Bacon King's Man-Harem?

I'm still on the Karen Handel bandwagon - I don't know if anyone else has "liked" her on Facebook, but her social media campaign has been interactive and very impressive thus far. I'm just hoping she can work some late magic like she did before the Gubernatorial primary in 2010, then be able to hang on due to her gaffe-prone opponents.

That ice cream poll is almost too good to be true! Didn't PPP release a poll a few months ago claiming that only about 27% of Georgians supported legalizing ice cream? I doubt that many people jumped on the ice cream bandwagon in such a short time. I wonder which poll is more accurate.

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/oct/07/your-daily-jolt-jimmy-carters-grandson-tests-water/


State Sen. Jason Carter looks like he is testing the waters for a run against Deal.

Well, that's a done Deal.

Seriously though, I don't know much about Carter, but he seems a lot more savvy than his grandfather. Hopefully he can do well.

I'm not overly optimistic. Carter has never polled well in hypothetical gubernatorial match-ups; even though he has name recognition, not many people recognize his full name (if that makes sense).

Also, glorious news!


http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/oct/08/michelle-nunn-raises-17-million-us-senate-campaign/

Are you rooting for Nunn?

Of course (I'm not an actual Republican).

Adam's a Democrat. There are no actual R-GA's on the forum.

Also, she'll need a large war chest. Atlanta's pretty expensive to advertise in, but the rest of the state isn't that much.

Jason Carter is only known by 23% of the population according to the last PPP Poll back in August. 71% of Democrats, and 80% of Independents have no idea who he is. He's down 48/33, but that's with him only getting 68% of Democrats and Deal getting 85% of Republicans.

I'm skeptical about Carter but very optimistic about Nunn. I suppose it's possible some synergy between their campaigns could help Carter a lot, though.

So this is fun. If Carter runs:

the Democratic nominees for governor and senator will both be grandchildren of the men who held those respective offices exactly fourty years prior.

Are you sure? I thought it was her father...

Has Carter really a chance? I don't see Deal losing except if he's investigated...

Derp, right, her father and his grandfather.

Governor Carter and Senator Nunn are going to make a great team!

20/20 Insight just called and polled about Carter!

Michelle Nunn raises 1.7 million in the 3rd quarter, has 1.4 million COH. (http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/oct/08/michelle-nunn-raises-17-million-us-senate-campaign/)

I'm impressed, and I'm still praying Handel doesn't get the nom.

Too bad only one of the two is likely to happen.

Kingston >> Handel >> Gingrey > Broun

Kingston's the one Nunn should fear.  His connection with rural voters thwarts one of her best angles.  Handel is a paper tiger who thrusts herself into unnecessary controversies and could easily have her own weird/ridiculous gaffe.  I'm also not convinced that Broun is materially worse than Gingrey.

I agree Kingston is a stronger candidate than Handel. It's worth noting that precinct-level results suggest that Kingston regularly polls 30% or more among blacks. Caveat, of course, that this probably won't be indicative of much of anything, but still.

Would you support them?

Not really, but the GA GOP doesn't have any better choices.

Well, if Deal has to resign because of ethic violations, Georgia will be really interesting!
Will the democrats regain the governor office and the senate seat?

BK, what does your family think about Jason Carter?

I used to live in very rural Georgia where most of the older voters are former Dixiecrats turned hardcore so-cons. I've asked them about the 2014 Senate election, and most of them have said "we're voting for Sam's kid!" I'm going to ask them about Jason Carter and the gubernatorial as well...I wouldn't be surprised if I get a similar reaction. If I remember correctly, they don't love Deal.

Guys if Deal gets arrested what do you think would happen?


Not sure, but I'll ask at Thanksgiving

I wasn't aware that a resignation was a possibility. What is it exactly that he's being accused of?

I'm not 100 Percent on the details, but my understanding is that:

The FBI has been questioning whistleblowing employees of the ethics commission who were fired by the new ethics commission chairman for leaking that the old ethics commission chairman got pressured to resign because she wasn't willing to let Deal off the hook for his campaign finance violations (the replacement he appointed let him get off with a "technical fine" of a like three thousand dollars).

I think that Jason Carter would be the next Governor of Georgia. If there's one good thing that comes out of these red states, it's that their obsession with law and order sometimes results in a deviation from partisanship.

County GOP Straw Poll Results, Senate Primary

Oglethorpe County (October 11)
Paul Broun (36%)
Jack Kingston (36%)
Karen Handel (21%)
Undecided (6%)
Phil Gingrey, Derrick Grayson, David Perdue, & Eugene Yu (0%)

Gwinnett County (September 25)
39% Karen Handel
26% Paul Broun
11% Phil Gingrey
10% Jack Kingston
9% Undecided
5% Derrick Grayson
0% Eugene Yu

Barrow County (August 24th)
Jack Kingston – 69 (28.75%)
Paul Broun – 67 (27.92%)
Karen Handel – 33 (13.75%)
Eugene Yu – 16 (6.67%)
David Perdue – 11 (4.58%)
Phil Gingrey – 8 (3.33%)
Derrick Grayson – 2 (0.83%)
Ken Young – 1 (0.42%)
Undecided – 33 (13.75%)

Floyd County (August 17th)
Gingrey-45 (34.4%)
Handel- 35 (26.7%)
Broun- 24 (18.3%)
Kingston- 18 (13.7%)
Perdue- 7 (5.3%)
Grayson- 2 (1.5%)
Yu -0 (0%)

Fulton County (June 9th)
Handel 42%
Broun 29%
Kingston 23%

State GOP Convention (May 20th)
Karen Handel, 42 votes;
Jack Kingston, 21 votes;
Paul Broun, 14 votes;
Phil Gingrey, 9 votes;
David Perdue, 3 votes.

"Don't worry guys! Jack Kingston will be the nominee and since he is very very moderate, practically a leftist, he will save us from the evil hippie socialist gay Kenyan pedophile libtard Democrat who runs in this race!"

That cross-section, to me, does seem to bode well for Kingston... Not so much for Gingrey.

As much as I'd love to see him go down, I hope it could wait until after May. It'd be highly likely that Pennington could become the front-runner in such a circumstance. He's already destroyed my city - no need to give him keys to the entire state. Pennington makes deal look like a socialist. :(

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Fun maps time!

What would narrow Carter and Nunn victories look like? I'm sure there'd be some areas where each would over and under-perform: maybe y'all can help refine these? Uniform swings in these cases:

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Carter - 50%
Deal - 47%

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Nunn - 50%
Broun - 47%

Well, is there a slight chance to regain majority in the state house and state senate in Georgia?
Has someone PVI for state districts please?

There's no way for Georgia Dems to get a majority in either chamber this decade. I'd say that there are around 10 House seats and maybe 4 Senate seats that could be flipped within the next couple of cycles. In 2020, it might be possible to get the House to 105 R - 75 D; Senate to 35 R - 20 D.

I've got a DR map of the House districts somewhere - I'll see if I can find it.

Thank you  Griffin!

posted without comment

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2013/10/26/georgia-man-runs-into-burning-home-to-get-beer

oh yeah well

http://timesfreepress.com/news/2013/oct/22/police-man-yells-spits-and-strips/

Have you some news of your dear governor Nathan Deal? Will Carter run?

http://www.examiner.com/article/democrat-michelle-nunn-draws-republican-donors-support-georgia-senate-race

Good news!

Well, I'm an idiot. I calculated these House districts incorrectly, unfortunately, due to my sobriety. :P I'm too tired to re-do right now, so I'll get it updated correctly later. The actual PVIs are just a couple points off, but you'll get an idea of how much the northern part of the state is relatively off-limits at this point. These are based on 2008 aggregate vote totals; I'm sure much of this marked is even more Republican.

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Thank you!

The NRSC better be paying attention to this: (http://mdjonline.com/view/full_story/23967527/article-Rep--Paul-Broun-wins-straw-poll-with-58-votes?instance=special%20_coverage_right_column)

Part of me really wants Broun to win the Republican Senate nomination because I love Michelle Nunn, but the other part is afraid if he might win and what happens.

To be honest, except for being much more inflammatory, how differently could he legislate than Saxby Chambliss?

Foreign policy. Broun is more of a libertarian, while Chambliss is a neocon.

Jason Carter is in. (http://www.11alive.com/news/article/312015/8/Carter-expected-to-announce-run-for-Governor)

Gingrey has been really underwhelming lately. I thought he might really be a dark horse for the loons, because he's basically a Broun who usually knows when to keep his mouth shut. Polls seem to be saying Broun, Handel and Kingston. So far, this race's dynamics make this continue to look like a worst-case scenario for Republicans. Gah, if there was only something else that could make a full slate of statewide elected candidates and old-time good vibes even more viable next year...


Oh, there it is.

I noticed that the DGA is doing paid advertising for Carter on Facebook. Where is the discussion, guys? Carter may prove (along with Nunn) to be the superstars of next year's elections.

I'm so happy - Georgia's finally going to get the national spotlight for its emergence as a future swing state and all of those juicy Democratic dollars! :D

Here's an article that I enjoyed. Don't get me wrong: each time right-wing hack pollster InsiderAdvantage releases a poll, I chuckle (like that one that showed Romney +18 in late September 2012), but this article does really discuss the perfect storm scenario well (http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia.com/story.aspx?sid=1652) and compares the developing climate to the one that emerged in 2001-2002 when Dems were destroyed in Georgia.

And for Nathan Deal, some news about his scandal?

Nothing new in the past two weeks, really - Jason Carter took a swipe at him in his press conference when he said "Georgia at its best always has an honest government that works for everyone and not just good political donors or well-placed friends". It was hilarious to see GAGOP spokeperson, Brian Robinson, make reference to Better Georgia (a progressive, non-partisan group) when it endorsed Carter:


Jim Galloway from the AJC followed up with this:


His PAC ("RealPAC"; Galloway misspoke), as you may have heard, was under scrutiny for raising hundreds of thousands of dollars without filing reports with the FEC for more than two years (http://www.peachpundit.com/2013/07/19/real-pac-not-dealing-with-the-rules/).

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/jason-carter-georgia-governor-race-10-things-to-know-99544.html

The entire government of the State of Georgia in one chart.

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Jesus Christ lord almighty....

Deal: 44%
Carter: 36%

Ugh. Eight points down with 15-20% undecided = :(. On closer inspection, though:


POLITICO obtained a copy of the survey, which was commissioned by the Georgia Democratic Party and the Democratic Governors Association to help recruit Carter into the 2014 gubernatorial race. It was conducted by the Democratic firm Anzalone Liszt Research, testing 600 likely Georgia voters between Oct. 14 and 20.

The poll found that the governor maintains a solid favorability rating – 49 percent positive, 31 percent negative – but by a 13-point margin, voters say they would rather vote for “someone new” over reelecting him.[/quote]

EDIT: But wait! Another good piece of info from the poll:


http://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/jason-carter-georgia-governor-race-99781.html
http://images.politico.com/global/2013/11/13/georgia_poll.html

Interesting poll. What's weird is that Deal has positive approvals but a majority also want a new governor?

I imagine the discrepancy would have to be the ones who are Republican but think Deal is somewhat of a RINO. They're not going to outright admit that they disapprove of him, but would love someone else from the Tea Wing to be Governor.

But in the end they'll vote for him as the Republican nominee. Sorry, but I'm not getting my hopes up for this race yet.

I agree completely; the ones who think he is a RINO will still vote for him over any Democrat.

Is Carter giving up his state senate seat or is he just not running for reelection? You can't run for two offices at once, right?

I guess he must be, because yeah, you can't run for two in the same election.

Yeah, for better or worse, the entire GA State Senate is up every two years.

At least Democrats don't have to worry about the seat flipping.

http://zpolitics.com/don-balfours-selfie/


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The National Journal has a look at what Republicans can do to prevent future Akins; (http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/stopping-the-new-todd-akins-20131118) there's obviously lots of emphasis on Broun.

A great read.

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...And Gingrey is imploding.


Here (http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/nov/19/phil-gingreys-top-staffers-resign-campaign/)

pictured: Chip Lake

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Good, good. Broun can consolidate the teabag vote.

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http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/nov/19/rep-steven-smith-fake-ga/

One of the best things I have seen in a while.

I cannot get it to open unfortunately.

What scandal, if I may ask?

Nathan Deal is like the combination of the worst from the right and the worst from the insiders together. The real scandal is that it took this long for a scandal to emerge.


Thanks to some assistance, I have now read the article. It seems like they don't have a clue what they are doing. The lesson of Indiana is not that a tea partier cannot be trusted, but instead that there is a no way of knowing who is going to screw up ahead of time. That was a statewide elected official. It is not like it was Christine O'Donnel or Sharon Angle where you could tell ahead of time something bad was going to happen. There is no safety to he had in establishment picks or incumbents either. Only someone who was not following politics back in 2006 and 2008 when an establishment gaffe (Conservative, but establishement through and through) could singularly be pointed to as the deciding factor in controlling the Senate with Allen, or with scandal plagued incumbents blowing safe seats like Alaska and Montana with Burns and Stevens. That is not to say that Lugar would have been indicted or made a gaffe. However, if he were to win and Romney as well, the possibiliy of IN Class I being open in Romney's potential sixth year in office would certainly be a concern long term that could be avoided with a younger incumbent.

It is like a mindless herd, but those who thing they can stave off disaster by running to Tillis got another thing coming. That is like running to Rick Berg, only worse, to save you from Christine O'Donnell. I also find it odd that they aren't eve sure who the evul Akin candidate is in NC. They select Harris because of Amendment I and his ties to it.

Jumping back into the arms of what destroyed the party before is not going to save it from what is destroying it now. At the end of the day regardless of tea party or establishment, the scucess or failure is determined by candidate quality. 

Your Indiana argument is invalid because 1) I could have easily told you that Mourdock would blow the seat - I argued he would lose it for us throughout the primary campaign, and 2) Lugar would not have served out the full term had he been reelected. Not to take away from your overall argument, though.

Why not?

Mourdock wasn't a solid bet, but also not a "substantial" risk. Hell Pence wasn't even solid for Governor in the end. But there was no indication that he would be a substantial risk of the like of a Christine O'Donnell, which was my point. Mourdock had it in my opinion until the abortion gaffe, despite the polls, which I recall was tied.

I agree with you on that point about Lugar not serving out the full term but it must be considered that 1) many may not have known that was the case and 2) he may have ended up deciding to stay the full term.

The point in general, the one you acknowlege though is you really cannot tell. Lugar would have won as the nominee, but incumbents aren't always safe as people tire of certain politicians, they get corrupted or have the mouth problem like any other candidate new or old. Santorum's two terms, Allen's Gubernatorial service, Stevens numerous terms and Burns three terms didn't save them from scandal/foot in mouth.

I think the best thing in the article is opposition research on the likely candidates. With that you don't know who will forgive what like Noem's driving record versus on the other hand the Buck phone tape. My concern is that Rove is likely going to spend millions of dollars getting nominated a bunch of Nathan Deals and we are going to lose just as many seats as we have because of candidate incompetence as we have since 2006. Only difference is that it will be corrution instead of gaffes or it might even be gaffes still.

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It's funny, isn't it? :p

Apparently there are Democrats other than Nunn running for Senate, too. (http://tablet.olivesoftware.com/Olive/Tablet/AtlantaJournalConstitution/SharedArticle.aspx?href=AJC/2013/11/23&id=Ar00103)

I'm suprised everyone missed this, but Dalton mayor Cliff Pennington entered the GOP primary... He joins Schools Superintendent John Barge, and of course, Governor Deal.
http://www.gpb.org/news/2013/11/18/governor-nathan-deal-faces-new-challenge-from-right (http://www.gpb.org/news/2013/11/18/governor-nathan-deal-faces-new-challenge-from-right)

Between Pennington and Barge, who has the better chance at defeating Deal?

Pennington. The polls show Deal leading him 71-11 while Deal leads Barge 71-8. Also, John Barge already messed up his campaign, but more importantly his credibility because his campaign website spelled "Governor" wrong as "Govenor." As the School Superintendent, that obviously doesn't go well for him lol.

Neither of the two really stands a chance though because Governor Deal recently announced he's running for re-election which unfortunately also hurts Carter's chances.

How generous of Kingston to give Broun an opening! (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/11/26/gop-rep-jack-kingston-we-shouldnt-just-let-obamacare-fail/) :)


...and today: (http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/nov/26/paul-broun-turns-obamacare-heat-jack-kingston/)

It's quite bizarre to see this. Of course Kingston was going to position himself as a "moderate" (no way he could out-compete Broun for the nutter vote; the only way to win is to beat Handel & Perdue and go to a runoff), but this seems like a losing issue for him. In addition to that, his campaign font/logo is ridiculous (and virtually unchanged from his past ten House runs):

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Cooper font? Really?


Well, it's David Pennington, but he would have the better chance overall. Still, neither can win: an establishment Republican sits upon the bulk of the voters needed by either candidate. Pennington is the radical Tea Party mayor from my hometown, Barge is the actual moderate who disagrees with the Republicans wholeheartedly on education, and neither will be able to pull off enough voters to force a runoff.

On the Georgia Governor's Mansion 2014 contest:
I've got Deal winning easily over Carter: 57-40.

Well, I'll give Mike Collins, a Republican running in CD10, points for this ad. (http://www.politico.com/story/2013/12/mike-collins-goes-van-damme-ad-100663.html?hp=l17)

Great ad...good to know he is flexible!

I don't suppose this is will be good PR (http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/subpoenas-related-ga-govs-ethics-complaints-21185815) for Deal:

If Pennington could win the Primaries ;D

Just got back from my grandmother's funeral, spent three days with my relatives down in the rural south of the state. So it's time for

BACON KING'S FAMILY POLITICAL TRACKER UPDATE

• In the GOP Senate race, they like Kingston because they thought he was a good Congressman when they were in the 1st District. Mixed opinion on Broun. General consensus is that there are a lot of candidates and the election's still a ways away so they're keeping an open mind towards all of them.
• Nobody really likes Nathan Deal but they don't really see him losing reelection. Even the savviest family politico (I'm talking regular attendee to the state GOP convention, who proudly displays a picture of himself with Newt Gingrich on the dining room wall) wasn't even aware Deal had a primary challenger.
• There's a "wait and see" attitude towards Carter and Nunn, on whether they'll be "Georgia Democrats" who represent the working man, or "National Democrats" who serve the interests of "special interests"
• They're more open towards Nunn because if she takes after her dad they know they'll like her, whereas if Carter is like his grandfather they still don't know whether he'll be like Governor Jimmy Carter (good, honest, common sense man), President Jimmy Carter (well intentioned but inept) or Former President Jimmy Carter (raging liberal socialist who loves the terrorists, god bless him for building those houses for poor people though).
• When the news that the Federal Judge had ruled the NSA stuff unconstitutional, reaction varied from "the only problem with it, really, was that they didn't tell people they were doing it to start with," to staunch libertarian views on the topic.

Also I discovered I have a possible networking connection with the new DPG Chair DuBose Porter! My cousin and his son played soccer on the same team for several years. My uncle recounted conversations he had with Porter, where the two agreed that the state Democratic Party would be doing a lot better if they could win back the votes of "those scared white folks who are, y'know, afraid of the minorities taking over, getting too much power over them," so make of that what you will.

I'm sorry for your grandmother BK.

Well, Georgia will be interesting!

Kingston channels his inner Gingrich. (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/12/18/jack-kingston-school-lunch_n_4467711.html?utm_hp_ref=tw) Ironic thing is that he's running for the seat once held by the program's author.

Its rough being a Republican Congressional candidate in GA. (http://www.rollcall.com/news/threes_a_crowd_republicans_flood_open_georgia_races-229823-1.html?pg=1) Despite several open seats, Republicans are generally facing crowded fields and struggling to raise money. The article has a good overview of the open House seats.

The fact that Deal isn't in jail yet is pretty surprising.

It's pretty surprising he wasn't in jail in 2010, honestly. Recall he resigned to run for governor literally the day before the House Ethics Committee was supposed to have a hearing on his cash for clunkers personal profit making scheme that would have probably gotten him expelled.

Excellent news; Carter will need that money to define himself and not be defined by Deal.

Interesting.

Too bad Carter is going to get his butt kicked by Deal in November.

GA Dems will have to wait until 2018 to get the governorship back

Dude, why do you even have a red avatar?

Another good quarter for Nunn, as she raised (http://www.politico.com/story/2014/01/michelle-nunn-fundraising-101765.html?hp=r4) $1.6 million.

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http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/194542-georgia-gop-schedules-7-debates-for-crowded-senate-field

She is just raking in that dough over Kingston's comments. If the worst-case scenario for Rs isn't playing out, then Kingston needs strong fundraising numbers right about now. If that were the case, I would think the campaign would have already released the figures. It'll be interesting to see if even the Republican field combined is out-raising Nunn - I tend to think it isn't.

But...

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It begins. (http://washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/01/07/gop-rep-paul-broun-georgia-democrats-need-illegal-immigrants-to-vote/)

Cross-posted from Congressional Elections: (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=185322.0)

$880K this quarter for Kingston (http://atr.rollcall.com/jack-kingston-raised-880k-in-4th-quarter/) bringing him to $4 million overall.

Perdue self-funded $1 million.

Did Handel get at least an okay showing this time?

Looks like Handel's numbers still haven't been released. Kingston and Perdue were apparently the only eager beavers.

http://www.peachpundit.com/2014/01/08/karen-handels-new-radio-ad-results/

Karen Handel is out with a new radio ad, called "Results".

Her campaign is similar to the 2010 Gubernatorial campaign - she's really going after her opponents and labeling herself as an outsider. Hopefully she is successful.

John Barrow took the time to say, again, that he's running for re-election. (https://twitter.com/repjohnbarrow)


I've heard that unlike McIntyre, Barrow actually enjoys campaigning and likes having a tough fight every year.

No kidding ;)

If he relishes tough campaigns he must have thought the Senate race looked too easy.

Or he loves tough campaigns so much that he didn't run for Senate because there's a good chance it'd be his LAST campaign.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has Deal up 9 (http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/01/10/ajc-poll-gives-nathan-deal-9-point-lead-still-no-front-runner-in-senate-race/#sthash.TZU2shM0.dpbs), despite his bad press.

The Senate race is up in the air:


Also, anyone hear about Kingston's "no free lunch" comment? (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/10/jack-kingston-free-lunch_n_4572915.html) Not great optics for him here:

A pretty boring map, but hey, it's my home and/or whatever.

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Can you do one for the 11th?

Oh man, that'd be much more difficult. Unless you can get me shapefile or KML data for the congressional district at the precinct level, I'd most likely have to hand-draw the map. 11 has way more precincts than 14.

I could probably do one using this one (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164112.msg3857505#msg3857505), but obviously it doesn't look as smooth. I could be wrong, but eyeballing it made me think multiple precincts were split?

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/medical-marijuana-bill-on-its-way/nc4Dt/?icmp=ajc_internallink_textlink_homepage

A bill legalizing medical marijuana is on its way to the floor of the Georgia general assembly. Rep. Allen Peake (R) of Macon is introducing the bill.

As much as I loathe the Republican dominance here in Georgia, the Republicans do seem to be listening to public opinion when it comes to increasing tolerance of mind altering substances. First they vote to allow alcohol purchases on Sunday, catapulting Georgia into the 20th century, and now medical marijuana. It probably helps that recent polls show most georgians firmly in support of this. Now on to complete legalization, but I doubt they would ever go that far.

Could these laissez faire policies help statewide Republicans with young Georgians who aren't totally devoted to the GOP?

Another Republican is considering throwing his hat into the ring among others jostling on who is the most likely to unseat Rep. John Barrow (http://chronicle.augusta.com/news/government/elections/2014-01-23/lawmaker-considers-barrow-challenge).  Article is from late last week, but I don't recall seeing it posted anywhere.

Is there anyone in the race -so far- that Barrow needs to really worry about?  

Rick Allen would be his strongest opponent, but any of the candidates currently in or looking at the race would be better than the disaster that was Lee Anderson.

I'd agree, and Barrow needs to worry about any candidate that is not a complete nut-job and/or slacker. 2012 was 54/46 - some might say being on the ballot with Obama could have hurt him a bit, but he also had a good turnout from Richmond County to pad his numbers. Augusta blacks have pretty terrible mid-term turnout when compared to black turnout statewide, so it's worrisome. Barrow could lose 2-3 points if there's a significant shift in mid-term electorate, and another 2-3 points with a credible Republican challenger. Assuming Barrow doesn't do anything stupid (likely), his floor is probably 48%, but I don't see his ceiling being any higher than 51% without someone like Anderson. If the candidates are within one point of one another, then a recall is almost guaranteed and who knows how that turns out.

A nitpick: Why is there a lack of data for several precincts in Chattahoochee County?  I've noticed the same to be true for the 2008 results in DRA.

The entire permanent population of the county resides in the southeastern quadrant of Chattahoochee; the remaining 3/4 or so is part of Fort Benning, along with four precincts in Muscogee that make up around 40% of that county's land area.

And/or it gets hotter than a hoochie coochie (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JW5UEW2kYvc)

Dems could get the Georgia governorship back in 2018.

Could there be much political fallout from the snowstorm? 63% in Atlanta disapprove of Deal's handling of it. (http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/01/31/democratic-poll-63-of-metro-atlanta-voters-say-nathan-deal-flunked-his-own-ice-storm-test/)

at first I didn't think so but the coverage has been brutal and it looks like the Georgia Democratic Party is looking to pounce. It definitely won't be issue #1 during the fall campaign but it has the potential to cost Deal some votes, especially in metro Atlanta.

Yes, social media suggests the middle is blaming Deal profusely. Of course, InsiderAdvantage released another one of their excellent polls (http://dgimobile.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=f0e2324ea81b38d1d6273b5ff&id=75306a7351&e=23dff1c639) that shows only 15% of voters blame Deal the most. ::)


Also...

Fourth quarter fundraising roundup (http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/01/31/fourth-quarter-fundraising-roundup/)

In all honesty, though, what % is actually Deal's fault and what % is simply due to a lack of resources, something that no administration would have been prepared for?

RedState is endorsing (http://www.redstate.com/2014/02/03/barry-loudermilk-in-ga-11/) Loudermilk for CD11.

So in GA-04, what is Tom Brown running on against Hank Johnson?

It's a pretty complicated answer, but he had a lot to do with it being so bad. Other states moved quickly and had resources in place - Georgia didn't. On top of that, he was inaugurated in the midst of an ice storm in 2011 and made the pledge that snarled traffic and the issues that were happening would never happen again under his watch.


That's a shame. Loudermilk is really a terrible person from what I've gathered. I've heard personal stories from friends that would make your skin crawl and that are so out there that I don't even want to repeat them for fear of sounding crazy.


As best I can tell, he hasn't really staked out any new positions or ones that would set him apart from Johnson. More than anything, I expect he wants to use his name recognition as sheriff of Dekalb to unseat a congressman that is traditionally thought of as being downright stupid. I got to see Johnson speak at Emory one time. He was all over the place, kept reading the same parts of paragraphs over again on his sheet of paper and was very uninspiring. Brown is much better at this.

I'd actually would like to know :P

The Madison Project endorses Broun. (http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/02/11/paul-broun-picks-up-a-first-major-tea-party-endorsement/)

I was fortunately off today and as I wake up I see the ground covered in snow again! Do we know yet if this is Snowpocalypse II or if they were actually prepared this time?

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/02/14/two-billionaires-line-up-behind-michelle-nunn/

Warren Buffett and Michael Bloomberg now supporting Nunn.

Not surprising! Good news though.

R Senate primary poll. (http://dailycaller.com/2014/02/20/poll-no-clear-leader-in-crowded-georgia-senate-race/) Perdue leads...with 13%.

No. He can't be the nominee. Doesn't his lead directly contradict with every other public poll?

Larry Sabato moves the Georgia governor race from Safe R to Likely R (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/governors-2014-where-politics-really-is-local/)

Ok, I checked the methodology. They only tested Republican voters. Georgia has an open primary, so Democrats, Republicans, and Independents can vote in it.

Pretty much every poll has Perdue just barely above joke candidates like Yu and Grayson. No way is he beating Handel or the 3 representatives.

Why can't he? Am I missing something here?

I agree with Sabato on the Georgia governorship being LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Because it makes no sense for him to jump 7 or so points in a single poll.

dumping cash into advertisments? ISn't he a self-funder?

Eugene Yu (R) is dropping down  (http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/02/22/a-yu-turn-for-a-long-shot-senate-candidate/)to GA-12 from the Senate race.

He probably has a better chance of winning that race.

Perdue has been running TV and radio ads like crazy in the Atlanta market (and probably throughout the state) and as far as I know he's the only candidate on the air anywhere right now. Not surprised at all he has a lead from nowhere.

I wonder how a Broun/Gingrey run-off would turn out?

"Please, you weak kneed Demoncrat lover. I defended Todd Akin when nobody else would!"
"Don't give me that, socialist RINO! When's the last time you called evolution a lie from Satan?"

Paul Broun's first ad is up (http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/199193-brouns-first-tv-ad-says-dems-fear-him-the-most)


In it he claims that Democrats fear him because he's the most conservative candidate and is sure to win.

We also fear Palin and Cruz the most for president.

With that commercial, I'd say we're seeing reverse psychology and someone in Broun's media is embracing it for the sake of winning the primary - a real win-win from the perspective of each. Personally, I think the McCaskill approach was better - maybe the new Pro-Nunn SuperPAC will make an investment in some air time! :D Go Broun Go!

Of course the Grimes Campaign will troll the GA primaries, that is obvious :p.

And Nunn the KY primary?


Genius Hitchcock type strategy. Swap primaries, no motive. :P

Oups, I wanted to say the Nunn Campaign :P

Kingston has ads up in ATL

Susan B. Anthony List endorses Handel. (http://www.sba-list.org/newsroom/press-releases/sba-list-candidate-fund-endorses-karen-handel-us-senate-georgia)

I was at the GOP debate in Macon, GA last night. Got to meet all 7 candidates and briefly interview them.

The debate held a straw poll, and Karen Handel won. The runner-up (I think) was David Perdue.

What sort of people attended the debate and voted in the straw poll? Did they seem like Karen Handel's sort of people? I'd love to hear more about your experience interviewing them!

Just wanted to share this: it's a map that compares the presidential and state house races in 2012 for HD 12 (Chattooga County & parts of Floyd County). Barbara Reece was one of two remaining Democrats out of the 35 or so districts in rural NGA; her district in 2011 was drawn just Republican enough to finally oust her. She still won Chattooga County with 58% of the vote (Romney won Chattooga with 69%). I've included % totals for each winning candidate for the precincts with the largest discrepancies. Chattooga is the last remaining Democratic bastion in rural NGA - only one Republican has been elected at the county level since Reconstruction (in 2012, and only because the presumptive Dem nominee dropped out the week before qualifying).

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Georgians are looking at another Republican sweep of statewide offices in November, though we've got several Democrats holding judicial statewide offices in both the Georgia Supreme Court and GA Court of Criminal Appeals.

Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle (R) appears poised to win reelection to 3rd term, which would position him for the governorship in 2018 .

No they're not. The most important race (Gubernatorial) is in play.

I assume the Georgia judicial statewide offices are non-partisan correct ?

Today:

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As best I can tell, he hasn't really staked out any new positions or ones that would set him apart from Johnson. More than anything, I expect he wants to use his name recognition as sheriff of Dekalb to unseat a congressman that is traditionally thought of as being downright stupid. I got to see Johnson speak at Emory one time. He was all over the place, kept reading the same parts of paragraphs over again on his sheet of paper and was very uninspiring. Brown is much better at this.
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Johnson got lucky that he was the one who got to face the even crazier and more frazzled Cynthia McKinney to get his congressional seat, his luck may well have run out this time.

A new SurveyUSA/11Alive poll was released today, showing results for all contested statewide office primaries. (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bf5cba41-c631-4124-9362-8dd3acf181a9) It also shows that 6 in 10 Georgians still support keeping same-sex marriage banned, but 6 in 10 Georgians also support Medicaid expansion. Nearly 70% of Georgians support legalized or decriminalized marijuana.

Looking at some of these results, though, I tend to think it's garbage. There's no way Dr. Rad is in 4th place behind two joke Senate candidates, and I find it very difficult to believe that one ad (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ofyQ6B-CFg) had pushed Perdue into the lead - even if it was made by the same guy who gave us King Roy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qvq1LT9yon4)). Here's the full version; very familiar. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7s7_W7Sli4)

GAGOP Gov:

Deal 65%
Pennington 11%
Barge 8%

GAGOP Sen:

Perdue 29%
Kingston 19%
Gingrey 12%
Broun 11%
Handel 10%

GADEM Sen:

Nunn 49%
Robinson 14%
Miles 11%
Radulovacki 5%

GADEM SOS:

Carter 45%
Beckum 22%

GADEM Ins Comm:

Johnson 45%
Heard 29%

GAGOP School Supt:

Nobody over 10%
45% Undecided

GADEM School Supt:

Wilson 17%
Freeman 16%
Morgan 12%
Mays 11%
Dent 9%
Robinzine 5%*

*the dark horse in this race is Robinzine; keep an eye out for her

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Should GA repeal its same-sex marriage ban, or should it be left in place?

Left in place 59%
Repeal 32%
Unsure 9%

Should Georgia expand Medicaid?

Yes 59%
No 32%
Unsure 9%

Will you sign up for coverage under ACA?

Yes 43%
No 42%
Unsure 15%

If not, why will you not sign up for coverage under ACA?

Too expensive 46%
Politically opposed 21%
Law will be changed/repealed 10%

Should Georgia keeps its marijuana laws as-is, change it to a civil offense with a $100 fine, or legalize marijuana?

Legal 37%
Civil offense 30%
Remain criminal 28%

Not good news for Nunn. She needs a Broun or a Gingrey nomination.

This poll is obvious junk so Nunn shouldn't be worried.

A little late, but w/e (https://www.google.com/fusiontables/embedviz?q=select+col13%3E%3E1+from+137WrQZ7MKyTl0XbU3GgnopiVV25kL_1NQJoy4snA&viz=MAP&h=false&lat=32.6349589294959&lng=-82.82673250000005&t=1&z=7&l=col13%3E%3E1&y=2&tmplt=2&hml=KML)

I saw one of these maps floating around a couple of years ago and noticed many errors with it almost instantly. I've been meaning to do this for a long time and will ultimately get around to 2012, but here is a 2008 map of Obama's % of the white vote by county. MoE is roughly ±2.

Most people don't think about how some of the most Republican counties in the state are some of the most Democratic (outside of the core urban areas) when it comes to whites. To put it more bluntly: the blacker a county was, the more likely whites in that county were to vote for John McCain.

Full-size img (http://i.imgur.com/edEGr3G.png)

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And since everyone was so riveted by the 2008 one I posted a few days ago, here's a 2012 version! It's amazing to see Obama not breaking 10% in 26 counties (was 8 in 2008). (http://youtu.be/Vx_HxBxQKkE?t=17s)

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Adam what is your methodology for these maps? I assume you're comparing county vote totals to county racial turnout totals? Are you assuming "black = Obama voter" and I guess other = two thirds Obama or so? There are several places on both maps that makes the results seem a bit questionable to me


Omg this is amazing, there's all these divisive patterns and I have no idea what is going on. My favorite thing is that VIDALIA ONION COUNTRY HATES CHARTER SCHOOLS (http://www.taylor.k12.ga.us/~tcms/onion/images/mapwith) plz explain

Please tell, because I knew from the get-go that some areas wouldn't be properly represented. I used turnout by race figures from SoS and election results for 2008 & 2012. The methodology was:

2008: Blacks @ 97% Obama, Other @ 65%
2012: Blacks @ 95% Obama, Other @ 65%

In regards to "Other", I manually adjusted counties where there are larger Latino/Asian populations. Obama's performance nationally seemed to hold or increase with these groups when compared to 2008, but in most of the counties, a good chunk of "Other" = "Unknown" = white. All in all and due to this, I kept "Other" at the same number as 2008. The 2008 spreadsheet formulas spat out Obama's white statewide total at 22.6% and the 2012 was 18.6% (which, granted, seemed a tad lower than I had initially estimated; 23% & 20%, respectively).

From what I could gather, I ranked MoE as ±2 in 2008 and ±3 in 2012 (blame the increase on the "Others" being a larger share of the vote).


Many of the most Republican regions of the state went against it; I don't know what happened down south, but up here it was framed as an issue of local control and the Republicans trying to take that away in favor of "big Atlanta education that spends your tax dollars on black people". In the north, the school systems aren't bad in the sense that they're failing (though the overall quality of education may leave something to be desired), so it seems to be mainly an issue of rural folk not wanting their tax dollars redistributed to new charter schools when theirs are already doing OK. In Whitfield, we opened a charter school via local initiative in 2005, so it's not like people here are inherently against the notion.

Aha! I see the problem.

this is a link to a PDF of 2012 turnout by race and gender by county (http://sos.ga.gov/elections/TurnoutByDemographics/2012_1106/376_cfv_by_county_nov_2012.pdf) and here is one for 2008 (http://sos.ga.gov/elections/TurnoutByDemographics/2008_1104/documentdirect%20ssvrz376_nov.pdf), if you weren't already using these. Scroll down to the bottom page of either and you'll see "unknown" makes up half or more of the voters who aren't white or black. Notice how neither gender nor race is specified for Unknown? That's because those are the people who didn't check the race or gender boxes when they filled out their voter registration form, which is technically optional (http://sos.ga.gov/elections/voter_registration/GA%20VOTER%20REGISTRATION%20%20APP(Fill_2007).pdf). I believe your error is assuming that unknown = white, when in reality I figure people of all races are equally likely, more or less, to leave those boxes blank for whatever reason. The racial composition of unknown voters in a county is probably identical to the proportions of known voters in a county. Hypothetically one could look at the precinct turnout data also featured on the site and extrapolate even more clearly who these unknown voters are (this might be useful for some Metro counties).

If you didn't account for these unknowns correctly it would explain why your maps show whites in the black belt inexplicably voting for Obama in greater numbers. How else could you explain Hancock County whites five times as likely as Glascock County whites to vote D?

Yep, those were what I used.

I considered what you said when I was initially calculating the figures, but I ran into a number of concerns that made me decide not to include a certain percentage of them as whites:

1) We can't be for sure that there is uniform distribution across all races, even though (in some situations) your premise would seem to make since. But...

2) What reaffirms this for me is what's below. Take a look at statewide turnout figures among each identified group (roughly aggregated here):

2008

White: 77%
Black: 76%
Other: 66%
Hispanic: 60%
Unknown: 60%
Asian: 58%

2012

White: 76%
Black: 73%
Other: 62%
Unknown: 60%
Latino: 57%
Asian: 55%

The Unknown and Other groups' turnout rates parallel Latino and Asian turnout figures much more closely than they would if it were an even distribution. Picking about a dozen counties at random from the lists yielded the same results. In close to 90% of counties, white and black turnout exceeded 90% of all voters in both elections. It simply can't be an even distribution, or these numbers would be in the 70s in both cases for both elections.

3) One of my friends who heads a local chapter of the Coalition of Latino Leaders once told me that she always encourages those that they register in VR drives not to specify race, which stems more than anything from a general fear of being "targeted".


Hancock stood out to me, but you and I both know that the polarity that exists there in general is odd (the two "cocks" being historically the most Democratic and Republican counties). Hancock is (I believe) the blackest county in Georgia; it's not too much of a stretch to say that in an extraordinary case like that, the overwhelming Democratic dominance and (presumably) being used to local, black politicians could create circumstances where the whites there are demonstrably less racist (or at least more willing to support black Democrats just as much as white ones). Of course, one could also use this argument to suggest that the whites in my part of the state should be the most opposed as a rural region to voting for Obama, instead of being the most inclined. =/

I used Hancock specifically because it's the only rural county where black voters were a greater proportion of the vote than the partisan breakdown you assume for "unknown" voters. This would effectively double the discrepancy, because it'd be one of the only counties where "unknown" voters are more likely to vote Obama than you estimate so it would make your guess of a white percentage off by even more.

Throughout most of the state, there's a fairly strong direct correlation in your map between a white voter's proximity to black voters, and the white voter's probability of voting for Obama, which is literally exactly the opposite of what you say is happening. Even when you throw out the smaller urban centers like Augusta, Albany, Macon, Savannah, and Columbus, and college towns Milledgeville and Statesboro, you have a bunch of counties that are blacker than surrounding counties where whites are also more likely to vote for Obama.

See: Hancock, Warren, Taliaferro, Washington, Jefferson, Macon, Talbot, Marion, Sumter, Stewart, Quitman, Clay, Calhoun, Liberty, etc

The cocks are the most obvious example of a consistent pattern throughout the black belt and really the entire state south of the Atlanta metro. It makes no sense based on my personal knowledge of these places.

Regarding the turnout, I'm not surprised that people who don't check off the boxes on their form have a lower than average turnout. Whether it's out of paranoia or laziness or age or whatever, pretty much any factor you can think about that would keep someone from identifying their race and gender on a form would also make them less likely to go to the polls on election day.

BK, could you update BACON KING'S FAMILY POLITICAL TRACKER please? :P

Yeah, that makes sense. I was thinking we might be seeing some neat bell curve of sorts, where whites were more pro-Obama not only in rural areas where there are virtually no blacks, but also in more rural areas where there are large black populations.

But... ???

2012 electorate, Hancock:

77.34% black
21.21% white
1.45% other

The others/unknowns don't even play a significant role here. Using the formulas, I get this:

(77.34*0.95) + (1.45*0.65) = 74.41%

80.92 (Obama vote %) - 74.41 = 6.51

6.51/21.21 = 30.69% of white vote for Obama

Even if you count all of the unknowns as whites: 32.87%
And count all of the unknowns as blacks: 28.62%

I haven't checked the other counties. The ones you named: are those the ones you believe there are issues with on here? Especially in the SW...on both Carter and Sanford's turf...?

Palin endorses Handel. (http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/03/27/sarah-palin-endorses-karen-handel-for-us-senate-seat/)

Who?

GA Democrats' best bet is in 2018 to taking back the governorship.

Thanks for your brilliant insight

At some point, Georgians are going to be sick and tired of Republican rule in the Peach State.

wow

much insight

Maybe the issue is that you're underestimating Obama's share of the black vote or the general nonwhite vote? Where you getting those numbers from? That would also explain the pattern.

And yeah those counties I listed are the ones that immediately stood out to me as being counties blacker than their surroundings where whites are apparently more likely to vote for Obama.

The numbers come from the data on the same PDFs you linked to (turnout by race and electorate composition by county). It was obviously assumed that Obama lost a bit of the black vote between 2008 and 2012 (from 97% to 95%), but he did do better as a % of the vote in a lot of these types of counties in 2012 when compared to 2008. I just figured that it was based on sheer numbers and not preference. In most cases, the swing to Obama that we saw in a lot of those counties if attributed solely to increase in AA support would imply that he got 100%+ of the black vote.

Still using Hancock as a example (since I've been too lazy to go back and do the others yet), let's assume 100% black support and 100% of all other/unknown voters are black as well (which means Obama got 100% of their votes, also):

(77.34*1.0) + (1.45*1.0) = 78.79%

80.92 (Obama vote %) - 78.79 = 2.13

2.13/21.21 = 10.04% of white vote for Obama

That'd match the surrounding counties pretty well, but is a huge stretch to assume that every single voter who wasn't white voted for Obama, and that every unknown voter was also non-white.

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Let's consider another scenario, where Obama gets 97% of the black vote and 80% of the other vote (in line with your theory that other/unknowns match that of the remainder of the electorate):

(77.34*0.97) + (1.45*0.8 ) = 76.18%

80.92 (Obama vote %) - 76.18 = 4.74

4.74/21.21 = 22.35% of white vote for Obama

This would still be quite a bit out of whack with a lot of the other surrounding counties.

Perdue knocks Handel (http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/04/03/georgia-senate-candidate-slights-opponent-for-lack-of-college-degree) for not having a college degree.

It won't change a lot of things.

Dang, you always beat me to it. :P

Aww, sorry. Keep your thread though :D

American Future Fund goes on air for Handel. (http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=A08A0D62-AA03-4E7B-8D05-890129D1402B)

Georgia Governor race: now lean rep for Sabato ;D

I'm actually beginning to think that Carter is likely to outperform Nunn.