Talk Elections

There are 3 legislative by-elections in France on December 9 and 16, the ConCon cancelled the elections in those constituencies.

These are going to be quite interesting given that they were all tight in June and it's gonna be interesting to see how the left/PS holds up in these elections, given that President Friendly Flanby has turned out to be a complete and utter disaster. He now has approval ratings in the 35% area. Here's a good summary (http://blippitt.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/epic-fail-train.jpg) of his presidency so far.

Hérault 6
Elie Aboud (UMP)* 33.62%
Dolorès Roqué (PS) 29.04%
Guillaume Vouzellaud (FN) 22.54%
Paul Barbazange (FG) 6.26%
Antonio Fulleda (DVG) 2.41%
André Troise (EXD) 1.36%
François Perniola (MoDem-CPF) 1.19%
Florence Brutus (PRG) 1.19%
7 others under 1%

Dolorès Roqué (PS) 39.82%
Elie Aboud (UMP)* 39.80%
Guillaume Vouzellaud (FN) 20.37%

from June:
A nice and coherent seat which keeps the whole of Béziers together. Sarko won 53.9%, Marine had placed first on April 22 with 27.8%. Béziers has a left-wing or RadSoc past, and at one time the PCF was quite powerful in the region, a core wine-making region. But, economic decline and economic changes (old people, tourism) has shifted the region to the right quite dramatically. Above all, the FN remains very influential in this region, which despite a few resort towns, remains largely lower middle-class, fairly suburbanized and faces major economic problems (unemployment) and has concerns about security and immigration. There are also quite a few pieds-noirs in the area, which helps out.

The FN won 25% in 1997, and allowed the former PS deputy, Alain Barrau, to defeated the UDF incumbent, Raymond Couderc. In 2002 and 2007, Paul-Henri Cugnenc (UMP) was victorious. He took 57.7% in 2007. Since his death in 2007, the seat has been held by Elie Aboud (UMP) who is running again.

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In the June runoff, Aboud won Béziers by a hair and won a few surrounding towns such as Bassan and Boujan-sur-Libron which tend to be a bit more affluent by very narrow margins. He won Valras-Plage, a station balnéaire, by a big margin. Roqué won over 50% in Cazouls-lès-Béziers, where she was a local councillor; and over 47% in Lespignan.

In the presidential election, Sarko won 53% in Béziers in the runoff, over 55% in the more affluent middle-class suburbs and 62% in Valras-Plage. Flanby won three towns, including Lespignan and Cazouls-lès-Béziers. In the first round, Panzergirl did extremely well in the high-growth communes around Béziers filled with scared lower middle-class whiteys in pavillons who are scared of the browns. She won over 30% in Villeneuve-lès-Béziers and Lespignan and close to that in places like Vendres or Sauvian.

Not surprisingly, this area, like all of the region, has trended hard to the right. Jospin in 1995, losing nationally 53-47, did better than Flanby who won nationally 51-49. In 1965, Mitterrand won over 60% against de Gaulle in the two (larger) constituencies which included parts of this one; he won them in 1974 and 1981 by a wide margin (around 55% in the old 4th, which included most of Béziers proper). The PCF used to be quite strong in all this area, of course; it has been thoroughly swept out though it retains a few mayors.

Same major candidates as in June, except that France Jamet will be the FN candidate. She's a regional councillor and one of the more prominent FN people in the region.

Deputies
old 4th constituency (pre-1986)
André Valabrègue (UNR) 1958-1962
Paul Balmigère (PCF) 1962-1968
Pierre Leroy-Beaulieu (UDR) 1968-1973
Paul Balmigère (PCF) 1973-1986

Alain Barrau (PS) 1988-1993
Raymond Couderc (UDF) 1993-1997
Alain Barrau (PS) 1993-2002
Paul-Henri Cugnenc (UMP) 2002-2007
Elie Aboud (UMP) 2007-2012
Dolorès Roqué (PS) 2012

Past presidential results
2012: Sarko 53.9% vs Flanby 46.1%
R1: LP 27.8%, Sarko 27.3%, Flanby 24.1%, Melenchon 11.1%, Bayrou 5.7%
2007: Sarko 59% vs Sego 41%
R1: Sarko 33.2%, Sego 22.3%, LP 17.6%, Bayrou 13.3%, Besancenot 3.9%
2002: Chirac 69.3% vs Le Pen 30.7%
R1: LP 29.5%, Chirac 16%, Jospin 15%, Hue 5.1%, Bayrou 5%, Arlette 4.5%
1995: Chirac 52.9% vs Jospin 47.1%
R1: LP 22.2%, Jospin 21.4%, Chirac 17.6%, Balladur 16.4%, Hue 12.1%
1988: Mitterrand 53% vs Chirac 47%
R1: Mitterrand 29.2%, LP 21.4%, Chirac 17.9%, Lajoinie 11.5%

2005 Ref: NON 64.9%
1992 Ref: NON 57.9%

Profiles of the two other races a bit later.

So, 3 seats lost for the left? Awesome.

Somewhat OT, but is there any current national-level polling in France? Like a generic "which party do you support?" type question? Obviously the PS is down but I'm interested in seeing how the FN and left-wing are doing.

France has no generic party support polling outside of election seasons. An Ifop poll from early October showed a re-run of the election tied at 50-50, with Marine taking 19.5% in the first round.

I think the other 2 by-elections are in UMP constituencies.

Aboud will regain his seat, most probably.
Just because, with a low turnout, the FN won't be able to make it for the 2nd round.

(I'm happy because, IIRC, I predicted Aboud's victory in June: it will improve my result :P)

Don't be so pessimistic, Antonio: I'm not so sure Devedjian will win again in Hauts-de-Seine.

Devedjian is up for by-election ? For a time it had looked as if he had lost, and I recall it was razor-thin (yeah, I just looked, 191 votes on 50,000...).

But however the context deeply favors Devedjian now : with Hollande's poor performance (that's an understatement...), and even if the candidate was a sort of MRC thingy (will it be him again ?), and EELV and FG having no momentum at all, so chances are they won't repeat respectively 11,5% and 6%, whereas the FN could get a little better than his 5,5% (Sceaux and Bourg-la-Reine are not really their ground, but Châtenay-Malabry and Antony could prove better).

I'll bet my bucks on Patou the fascist here.

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Last one is the 1st of Val-de-Marne : won by the UMP by 56%, I haven't read why it was cancelled, but should be just a formality.

Devedjian will lose some votes from the inside of the right: copéistes will try to kill him if Fillon wins over Copé.
And maybe Hollande will tweet something on Devedjian: after all, Trierweiler made sure Royal would lose in June :P So...

The MRC candidate will be again, indeed.
But let's wait for details from Hash.

I maintain my stupid predictions:

Aboud beats the socialist in Hérault in the second round, but after a tough first round against France Jamet.
In Val-de-Marne, Plagnol is shortly reelected in the second round.
In Hauts-de-Seine, Devedjian is just beaten in the second round by the MRC candidate.

It was a long time since by-elections were so interesting (I mean, interesting before the results, as, in Rambouillet, it was interesting because of the surprise...).
Though, of course, with the UMP Civil War, on one side, and the Florange mess, on the other side, it may well be without any big surprise in the end.

So when the results are particularly close the solution is just have another election? I want to make sure I'm understanding what's going on.

The closer the result, the lower the burden of proof of any sort of irregularity. If there's any doubt about the outcome the solution is to have another election.

Ugh, I'm a lazy piece of sh**t so I won't do proper profiles for the two other ones but I did do a profile of Devedjian's constituency (92-13th) in June in my prediction thread.

Devedjian won 50.18% in June in his constituency, the left was hurt by its divisions between Landfried (MRC/PS) who took 29% and Feuillade (EELV/PS kind of disavowed by the EELV in some weird chaos) who won 11.6%. This time, the 'presidential majority' is backing Landfried by the first round. Devedjian, the president of the CG, is a major Fillonista who is the leader of the opposition to the Sarkozy/Balkany clan in the 92. Hollande had won 52.6% here in May.

The other race is Val-de-Marne 1st, which for some reason I recalled to be close when it wasn't - the right won its 57-43 (Sarko had won 52.5%). It is centered around the wealthy suburban town of Saint-Maur, the town where the incumbent deputy, Henri Plagnol (UDI/UMP) has been mayor since 2008. It also includes the proletarian PCF stronghold of Bonneuil-sur-Marne, and parts of leftist strongholds Creteil and Champigny-sur-Marne (albeit the more affluent parts of Creteil). Plagnol won 65.6% in Saint-Maur, but the PS won 64% in Bonneuil, 60% in Champigny and 52.8% in Creteil.

One of the issues is that Saint-Maur has a huge debt and, partly as a result (the other reason is that the UMP is pissed at Plagnol for joining the UDI), Plagnol faces a revolt within his own municipal majority in Saint-Maur. He is endorsed by the UMP, but a UMP CG and adjoint au maire (Sylvain Berrios) is running as a dissident (ftr, he's a copista). André Kaspi, a prominent French specialist of the US and historian who is also UMP adjoint in Saint-Maur, is backing Berrios.
There is also a UDI/AC dissident, Pascale Luciani, who won 5.3% in June and is running again.

Honestly, I really hope Devedjian pulls it out. He's one of the few decent right-wingers of the 92 and for years now the Sarko-Balkany clan has been devoting all their energy in ruining his life.

Herault-6, the UMP fede boss tweets "77 bureaux sur 90. ABOUD 41,92%. ROQUE 28,19%. JAMET 23,37% #circo3406"

Something that may be the local paper is doing a live blogging
http://www.midilibre.fr/2012/12/09/legislative-a-beziers-la-soiree-en-direct,608756.php

34-06 is pretty much over, it will be a UMP-PS runoff, with the UMP doing very well and the FN falling flat on its face ultimately.

Landfried says he's at 30.33% in Antony with 38% turnout. He won 28.55% in Antony in June, Feuillade had won 11.16% on top of that.

Edit: Devedjian apparently at 52% in Antony, up from 41.3% in June.

Antony:  #UMP 51,91; #PS 30,33; #FDG 7,36 ;#FN 4,70; Participation 38,29 %

UMP up over 10 pts, PS/EELV down about 9.4, FG up about 1, FN down by a bit less than 1

The PS is spinning that it is 'up' from Landfried's result alone in June; in the Herault the UMP is spinning that everybody had predicted a PS-FN runoff but they were the massive underdogs etc

the UDI has full results in the Herault-6:
Résultats de la #circo3406 pour la législative partielle : UMP: 42,61%. PS: 27,73% (sort.) FN: 23,37% --> 2nd tour UMP (bal favorable) / PS

Some UMP dude on Twitter is apparently retarded:
@DevedjianP réelu député avec 52%! Le PS dépité! #UMP #circo9213

and: “RT@UMP_SciencesPo: . @DevedjianP élu dans la #circo9213 à 52% d'après les premiers résultats ! #reconquête”

Val-de-Marne 1st seems very close between Plagnol (UDI/UMP) and Berrios (dvd)

Paul Barbazange (FDG) 4,93 %

Chatenay: 48.5% UMP (+9), 33.9% PS (-8); FG up a bit and FN down a tad

Landfried at 32.9% in Sceaux, down about 6% from the Landfried+Feuillade total in June. Devedjian at 49.4%, up nearly 8 pts since June. Only Bourg-la-Reine left: in June, L+F 42.7% vs Devedjian 37.7%

Nobody seems to care about Val-de-Marne-1st, but indications from Saint-Maur show that Plagnol and Berrios are close, but the 3 leftie towns could allow the PS to qualify over Berrios (unless the FG does really well in its strongholds).

Meanwhile, nobody seems to understand French electoral law and the right-wingers - even those at SciencesPo apparently - are getting boners thinking they won by the first round and are looking like their usual idiotic selves in the process. On the other hand, some leftie guy who tweets way too often is depressed and panicky, urging Flanby and the other idiot to govern for the working-class. Have fun with that, dude.

Landfried at 36.8% in Bourg-la-Reine, so down 6 pts again here. About 45% for Devedjian, up by about 7 since June.

The final results should be about 49-50% for Devedjian, which is really good for the UMP.

edit: Landfried 32.52% overall, apparently 49.82% for Devedjian. FG at 7%, FN at 4.7%

Mellouli (PS) ahead in Champigny-sur-Marne in 94-01, so he should qualify for the runoff.

49.82% by the first round? Hard to see Devedjian not to win there. :)

BFM says PS eliminated in Val de Marne I

Elie Aboud (UMP) elected with over 62% (!) in Herault-6

Also looking good for Devedjian, as expected: about 62% with almost all polls reporting in Antony, up over 10 points since June (51.2%).
edit: Landfried tweets he got 38.26% in Antony with 37.66% turnout, so 61.74% for Devedjian up over 10 pts.

59.58% for Devedjian in Chatenay, up nearly 13 points since June (46.8%)

Apparently it's 50-50 in the Plagnol/Berrios internecine runoff in the 94

Last minute tweet by some local councillor in Saint-Maur who claims that Berrios (UMP dissident) has won in the 94

Final in the 92: about 60% for Devedjian (UMP)

Berrios (UMP diss) won.

Amazingly surprising defeat for Plagnol.

Big defeats for the PS.
Big defeat for my (initial) predictions :P

After all, maybe it would be better to keep on fighting inside the UMP: it seems to work ! ;D

But more important, big win for Patrick the Survivor. :)

Without any stock of votes after the first round, he is doing really well.
Leftist voters must begin to be angry, it seems.

full results:

Abstentions: 54 736 (63,94%)
Votants: 30 856 (36,06%)
Blanc et nuls: 1 169 (3,79%)
exprimés: 29 687 (96,21%)

Patrick Devedjian (UMP): 17 822 (60.03%)
Julien Landfried (MRC/PS): 11 865 (39.97%)


Votants: 34 654 (40,11 %)
Exprimés: 32 956

Elie Aboud (UMP) 20 403 (61.90 %)
Dolores Roqué (PS) 12 553 (38.09 %)


Inscrits: 82 492
Abstentions: 63 337 (76,78%)
Votants: 19 155 (23,22%)
Blanc et nuls: 1 972 (10,29%)
exprimés: 17 183 (89,71%)

Sylvain Berrios (DVD): 9 717 (56.56%)
Henri Plagnol (UMP-UDI): 7 466 (43.44%)