Talk Elections

I just wanted a place were I could post my maps and occasionally my opinion on matters.

My first map is comparing the percentages between President Obama and Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin in their respective races. Obama outperformed Baldwin in the red counties and Baldwin outperformed Obama in the green counties. The shades represent 1% interval's.

()  

Some quick observations:
- Obama did better then Baldwin in her congressional district. This includes outperforming here by 2.02% in Dane County.
- Obama also did much better then Baldwin in the Driftless area of the Southwest part of the state. This makes sense as this is Tommy Thompson's home region, even though Baldwin won in most of these counties in this region. Big exception was Juneau County, were Thompson is from, were Obama did 5.58% better than Baldwin. He won the county while she lost it.
- Baldwin did much better then Obama up Nort (little bit of Wisconsin lingo, lol) and in the Minneapolis exurbs. Wondering if race had something to do this is difference or if it was more about their opinions on Obama's performance as President.    

And other than Racine/Kenosha, outperforming Baldwin in Paul Ryan's congressional district, too.

This is true, but Obama only did less then 1% better in each county that makes up Ryan's district and the same for Baldwin in Racine/Kenosha. My guess is the %'s would be close to the same in the district.

Here is the 112th Congress Caucus Map:
()
Key:
Dem 90% - Progressive Caucus
Dem 70% - Progressive Caucus & New Democrat Coalition
Dem 50% - New Democrat Coalition
Dem 30% - New Democrat Coalition & Blue Dog Coalition
Dem 10% - Blue Dog Coalition
Dem 00% - Progressive Caucus & New Democrat Coalition & Blue Dog Coalition
Grey - No Caucus Membership
Rep 90% - Tea Party Caucus
Rep 70% - Tea Party Caucus & Republican Study Committee
Rep 50% - Republican Study Committee
Rep 30% - Republican Study Committee & Main Street Republican Partnership
Rep 10% - Main Street Republican Partnership
Rep 00% - Tea Party Caucus & Republican Study Committee & Main Street Republican Partnership (Also one case of Tea Party Caucus & Main Street Republican Partnership, symbolized with a dot)    

I thought Dave Camp was a member of both the Study Committee and the Main Street Partnership.  And this is the old congressional district before redistricting.

I'm having a very difficult time picturing what type of person is a Romney/Baldwin voter.

This was for the 112th Congress, ergo, he's using the old map.

I'm going off of the lists on wikipedia and he's not on either. Also what Miles said about the 112th Congress.

I missed them and I don't think it would work on this map. Also they have yet to make a huge impact yet, if they do in the future I'll add them.

Here is an identical map, but this time its Walker vs Johnson in 2010:
()

Some quick observations:
- Looking at this map, it appears that the Senate race made a bigger difference in the differences between Walker and Johnson   
- Feingold did much better then Barrett almost all over the state, but particularly in the Dirftless area and the Northwoods. If he could have ran a bit better in these parts, he could have made it a much closer race
- Johnson's best area was the Fox River Valley which is not surprising considering it's his home region
- No idea why Johnson did 2.05% better then Walker in Polk County while doing relatively worse in the other Minneapolis exurb counties     

I will be adding some maps and data on the Wisconsin State Legislature here soon!

polk county does have a weird tendency for statistical anomalies. I think there was a primary some years ago where some pro weed guy did well there.

Id love to see maps of the Wisconsin legislature, especially the Assembly.  I know that in 2010, Republicans somehow picked up a bunch of seats in districts that went for Obama with 60%+ of the vote in 2008.  There was even one that Republicans picked up that went 68% for Obama. 

Since the districts were changed around so much in the 2011 redistricting, this state is really hard to follow.  Did these Republicans survive reelection or were these seats made better for Repubicans somehow?

As I am about to start going through the Wisconsin State Legislature I need to make a few overall points:

- Each post will consist of a Senate District and its 3 corresponding Assembly Districts
- There will be some information, maps and pictures on the 4 districts and on the 4 Legislators
- I constructed the PVI of the different districts using the 2008 Presidential election and the average of the 2010 statewide races
- It should be noted that the maps made with DRA are not perfect because the application still uses the old ward lines which changed after redistricting, but they are as close as possible
- When I am done going through the current legislature, I will show how I would draw a fair, okay maybe a slight Democratic map, haha  
- Also I know that this is about statewide elections and we are in the congressional elections section, but I already had this thread going and I didn't want to make a new one  

Senate District 1 is coming up first!

Senate District 1
()
Counties: Brown, Calumet, Door, Kewaunee, Manitowoc and Outagamie
Three Largest Entities: Western DePere, Southeast Appleton and Two Rivers  
PVI: R+4
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 44,717 (47.15%)/ Romney 48,892 (51.55%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 51,595 (53.8%)/ McCain 42,786 (44.62%)
Swing: 13.58% Republican
Trend: 6.61% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+3.5/R+4

Senator: Frank Lasee
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Frank Lassee 43,415 (60%)/ Monk Elmer 28,800 (39.8%) (2010 – Old Lines)
Obama Comparison: 2014 election
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Ledgeview
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly (Assembly District 2)(1995-2009)
Education: University of Wisconsin-Green Bay (1986)
Birthday: 12/11/1961
Place of Birth: Oceanside, California
Profession: Real Estate Broker
Religion: Christian

Notes: The districts for the Wisconsin State Legislature in the Fox Cities (Appleton Area) and the Fox River Valley (Green Bay Metro) are awful. Both areas get split into 4 different Senate Districts and then go off into more rural areas. I will provide cleaner lines for this area when I show and describe my maps after going through the current Legislature.

Yet it is crazy to think that this district actually become a half point more Democratic in redistricting after seeing the Obama numbers in 2012. I can’t see a Democrat winning here in the near future, especially in 2014. Also, one can see overall that Obama has done a better job in drawing voters then local Democrats have been able to in this Senate District and the 3 Assembly Districts.

Assembly District 1
()
Counties: Brown, Door, Kewaunee and Manitowoc
PVI: R+3.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 16,809 (49.38%)/ Romney 16,836 (49.46)  
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 18,513 (56.35%)/ McCain 13,884 (42.26)
Swing: 14.17% Republican
Trend: 7.2% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+1/R+0.5  

Represntative: Garey Bies
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Garey Bies 16,993 (51.3%)/ Patrick Vesser 16,124 (48.6%)
Obama Comparison: +0.73%
Serving Since: 2001
Hometown: Sister Bay
Prior Offices: None
Education: Northeast Technical College
Birthday: 10/26/1946
Place of Birth: Manitowoc, Wisconsin
Profession: N/A
Religion: Catholic

Notes: This would have been nice seat to gain in 2012. If only Obama could have done a little bit better here. His district probably won’t be competitive again until the next presidential race, as that is the only time Democrats perform well up in the Door County area.

Assembly District 2
()
Counties: Brown, Manitowoc and Outagamie
PVI: R+5.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,358 (45.49%)/ Romney 15,621 (53.2%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,503 (52.31%)/ McCain 14,507 (45.99%)
Swing: 14.03% Republican
Trend: 7.06% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+6/R+6

Representative: Andre Jacque  
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Andre Jacque 17,082 (58.6%)/ Larry Pruess 12,033 (41.3%)  
Obama Comparison: +4.2%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: DePere
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison (2003)
Birthday: 10/13/1980
Place of Birth: Beaver Dam, Wisconsin
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: The City of Two Rivers in the eastern part of the district is a good Democratic base, but the conservative rural areas really drown it out. A democrat actually represented this district from 2009 to 2011 and he actually defeated the current State Senate Frank Lasee, but that was due in large part to Obama’s 2008 surge and was an extreme outlier for what usually happens here.

Assembly District 3
()
Counties: Calumet and Outagamie
PVI: R+5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,550 (46.29%)/ Romney 16,435 (53.2%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,645 (52.31%)/ McCain 13,080 (45.99%)
Swing: 11.55% Republican
Trend: 4.58% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+4/R+5

Representative: Alvin Ott
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Alvin Ott 17,387 (58%)/ Kole Oswald 11,398 (38%)
Obama Comparison: +8.28%
Serving Since: 1987
Howntown: Forest Junction
Prior Offices: None
Education: N/A
Birthday: 6/19/1949
Place of Birth: Green Bay, Wisconsin
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district also gets a bit more democratic, but a majority of the district is in Calumet County, which is traditionally very Republican. There is some Democratic strength in the Appleton and Menasha spillover as well as the Village of Kimberly, but there is not enough to make up what is going on in the rural area.  

Senate District 2
()
Counties: Brown, Oconto, Outagamie, Shawano and Waupaca  
Three Largest Entities: Green Bay, Ashwaubenon, Allouez
PVI: R+5.5
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 41,768 (46.15%)/ Romney 47,662 (52.66%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 46,843 (52.33%)/ McCain 41,350 (46.19%)
Swing: 12.65% Republican
Trend: 5.68% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+5/R+5

Senator: Robert Cowles
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Uncontested  
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 1987
Hometown: Green Bay, WI
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly (1983-1986)
Education: University of Wisconsin-Green Bay (1975)
Birthday: 7/31/1975
Place of Birth: Green Bay, Wisconsin
Profession: N/A
Religion: Episcopalian

Notes: This is another one of those annoying Senate District that chops the Fox River Valley and Fox Cities into 4 different Districts. This district takes the western Green Bay Suburbs and then goes west taking most of Shawano County and most of northern Outagamie County.

This is very much a Republican district as shown by the fact that Senator Cowles won reelection unopposed in 2012. Obama may have won it in 2012, but that was an outlier.

Assembly District 4
()
Counties: Brown
PVI: R+4.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 15,629 (47.88%)/ Romney 16,718 (51.21%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,431 (52.27%)/ McCain 14,575 (46.37%)
Swing: 9.23% Republican
Trend: 2.26% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old):  R+4/R+4

Representative: Chad Weininger
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Chad Weininger 16,029 (55.6%)/ Michael Malcheski 12,770 (44.3%)  
Obama Comparison: +3.6%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Green Bay
Prior Offices: N/A
Education: Cardinal Stritch University MBA (2004)  
Birthday: 2/7/1972
Place of Birth: N/A
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: If this district starts voting more like the City of Green Bay, then maybe it could become competitive. Yet right now it is hard to see a Republican losing this.

Assembly District 5
()
Counties: Brown and Outagamie
PVI: R+5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,321 (45.78%)/ Romney 16,559 (52.94%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,233 (53.7%)/ McCain 13,506 (44.68%)
Swing: 16.18% Republican
Trend: 9.21% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+3.5/R+3

Representative: Jim Steineke
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Jim Steineke 16,117 (55.9%)/ Jeff McCabe 12,709 (44.1%)
Obama Comparison: +1.73%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Kaukauna  
Prior Offices: N/A
Education: N/A
Birthday: 11/23/1970
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This seat actually changed parties in 2010, but it would take a change in the political atmosphere of the State for this to get competitive again. Making things worse the district was made a half point more Republican.

Assembly District 6
()
Counties: Brown, Oconto, Outagamie, Shawano and Waupaca  
PVI: R+7
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 11,818 (44.46%)/ Romney 14,385 (54.12%)
2008 Presidential Election: 14,157 (50.94%)/ McCain 13,229 (47.6%)
Swing: 13% Republican
Trend: 6.03% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+7/R+8.5

Representative: Gary Tauchen
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Gary Tauchen 15,423 (59.4)/ John Powers 10,508 (40.5)  
Obama Comparison: +3.98%
Serving Since: 2007
Hometown: Bonduel  
Prior Offices: N/A
Education: University of Wisconsin-River Falls (1976)
Birthday: 11/23/1953
Place of Birth: Rice Lake, WI
Profession: Businessman
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district got 1.5 points more Democratic, but considering this is mainly Shawano County, I don’t see this ever flipping in the near future.  

Thoughts on my series so far? Is there anything else you'd like to see me add to the posts? I'd love to here others thoughts!

What are the best pickup opportunities for Senate Democrats in the coming years? If they're guaranteed to lose Senator Lehman's seat next year, that would give them a baseline of 14 seats to start off with, I assume.

The Schultz seat would probably be a near gimme if he retired.  Pretty much all of the swingy seats are held by Republicans with the exception of Dave Hanson. 

One would think that 17th would flip to the Democrats if Schultz retired, but it should be noted that all 3 representatives in the Assembly from that district are Republicans. This area really likes Republicans on the local area, but will almost always support Democrats on statewide elections. It will be a close race when whenever Shultz retires, but it probably won't be competitive until he retires. The 19th, which is most of the Fox Cities, could be competitive whenever Michael Ellis retires. Other then that I don't see anymore competitive seats. Jim Holperin retiring pretty much makes the 12th un-winnable, redistricting took the 5th, 8th and 21st completely off the table, Jessica King was the best possible candidate in the 18th yet she still lost in a good 2012 environment and man of the districts that were lost in 2010 (23&29) are trending away from the Dems. I could see a permanent Republican Majority of 19-14 for the decade. Taking back the Governors Mansion in 2018 is going to be the only way to change this, baring an awful Republican Presidential administration starting in 2016.

Senate District 3
()
Counties: Milwaukee  
Three Largest Entities: Milwaukee, West Allis, and Greenfield
PVI: D+13
Incumbent Party: D/DDD
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 41,753 (69.04%)/ Romney 18,076 (29.89%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 38,066 (65.64%)/ McCain 19,059 (32.87%)
Swing: 6.38% Democratic
Trend: 13.35% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+10/D+7

Senator: Tim Carpenter
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Tim Carpenter 23,401(61.09%)/ Annette Krznarich 14,796 (38.36%)  
Obama Comparison: 2014 election
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Madison (Masters)
Birthday: N/A
Place of Birth: St. Francis, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes:  The interesting to note about this Safe Democratic seat is that it contains the highest percentage of Hispanics in any Senate seat in Wisconsin. A majority of the Hispanics in Milwaukee is of Puerto Rican dissent, but the number of Mexicans in the city is growing.  Hispanics make up 40.5% of the district. That number is expected to grow larger in the future and could possibly become the plurality by 2020. I would guess that that next Senator from this district would be Hispanic.

Assembly District 7
()
Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: D+2
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 16,372 (57.00%)/ Romney 11,957 (41.63%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,033 (56.44%)/ McCain 11,892 (41.86%)
Swing: 0.79% Democratic
Trend: 7.76% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+1/D+3

Representative: Daniel Riemer
()
Party: Democratic
Last Election: Uncontested (There was a write-in campaign by former Rep. Peggy Krusick, who lost to Riemer 2 to 1 in the primary, that failed miserably)
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Chicago
Birthday: 12/10/1986
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is an interesting district as Daniel Riemer, 26 years old, was able to defeat Rep. Peggy Krusick at a 2 to 1 margin. I am surprised that the Republicans didn’t run a candidate in this district in the general election, as it is only D+1. This will be one to watch in 2014 as you have a young Freshman, running in a close district and there is probably still some bad blood from knocking out a 20 year incumbent.  

Assembly District 8
()
Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: D+30
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 11,922 (86.64%)/ Romney 1,748 (12.7%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 9,644 (81.79%)/ McCain 2,019 (17.12%)
Swing: 9.27% Democratic
Trend: 16.24% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+27/D+28.5

Representative: Jocasta Zamarripa  
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested  
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Birthday: 3/8/1976
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This Assembly District has the highest percentage of Hispanics in Wisconsin at 65.8%. Interesting historical fact is that this used to be a predominantly Polish area in Milwaukee. The make up of this district and the 9th was the result of the lawsuit Baldus et al  vs. Brennan et al. The court ruled that there needed to be one district were Hispanics could have a representative of their choosing rather then having the ability to influence two different districts.  

Assembly District 9
()
Counties: Milwaukee  
PVI: D+17.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,459 (74.81%)/ Romney 4,371 (24.30%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 12,389 (69.63%)/ McCain 5,148 (28.93%)
Swing: 9.81% Democratic
Trend: 16.78% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+15/D+12

Representative: Josh Zepnick
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested  
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Bachelors)/ University of Minnesota-Twin Cities (Masters)
Birthday: 3/21/1968
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This districting also has a fairly large Hispanic plurality at 47.8%. It would not be surprising if a Hispanic wins this district whenever Rep. Zepnick chooses to retire.

Still hungry!!!

Senate District 4
()
Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: D+31
Incumbent Party: D/DDD
Three Largest Entities: Milwaukee, Shorewood and Glendale  
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 75,690 (86.12%)/ Romney 11,642 (13.25%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 71,776 (84.45%)/ McCain 12,545 (14.76%)
Swing: 3.18% Democratic
Trend: 10.15% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+31/D+33.5

Senator: Lena Taylor
()
Party: Democratic
Last Election: Lena Taylor 64,064 (86.1%)/ David King 10,154 (13.6%)
Obama Comparison: +0.04%
Serving Since: 2005
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Bachelors)/ Southern Illinois University-Carbondale (J.D.)
Birthday: 7/25/1966
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Columnist and Lawyer  
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is one of the two African American senate districts in Milwaukee. African Americans make up a majority of this district at 58.3%.  It will be interesting to see what will happens to this district as the African American population in Milwaukee continues to decline.

Assembly District 10
()
Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: D+35
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 29,006 (89.66%)/ Romney 3,111 (9.62%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 27,858 (89.72%)/ McCain 2,973 (9.58%)
Swing: 0.1% Republican
Trend: 6.87% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+38/D39.5

Representative: Sandy Pasch
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested  
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2009
Hometown: Shorewood
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison (Bachelors)/ Bioethics Medical College of Wisconsin & University of Rochester (Masters)
Birthday: 5/19/1954
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Nurse and Professor
Religion: N/A

Notes: There are six majority African American assembly districts in Milwaukee. This is one of them at 62.9% African American. Due to redistricting, the White Northeast Democratic leaning Milwaukee County suburbs were split into three in order to target Sandy Pasch for running against Senator Alberta Darling in the recall. Rep. Pasch chose to run in this district, which caused some controversy. The former Representative from the area, Elizabeth Coggs advised her voters to vote for someone that “looks like you.” This actually angered the voters of the district and Rep. Pasch won the primary in a landside.

Assembly District 11
()
Counties: Milwaukee  
PVI: D+31.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 24,742 (86.93%)/ Romney 3,557 (12.5%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 22,551 (84.66%)/ McCain 3,878 (14.56%)
Swing: 4.33% Democratic  
Trend: 11.3% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+31.5/D+39

Representative: Mandela Barnes
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested  
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: Milwaukee, WI
Birthday: 12/1/1986
Place of Birth:  Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Community Activist
Religion: N/A

Notes: Another Northside Milwaukee majority African American district. African Americans make up 60.4% of the district. Mandela Barnes defeated former Rep. Jason Fields in a primary where the school voucher program was the key issue. Rep. Fields was a big advocate of school vouchers and the issue led to his demise.

Assembly District 12
()
Counties: Milwaukee  
PVI: D+25
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 21,942 (81.04%)/ Romney 4,974 (18.37%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 20,844 (77.88%)/ McCain 5,676 (21.21%)
Swing: 6% Democratic
Trend: 12.97% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+34/D+23

Representative: Fred Kessler
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2005
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison
Birthday: 1/11/1940
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Labor Arbitrator
Religion: Lutheran

Notes: This district has the smallest African American percentage of the six assembly districts at 51.1%. That percentage will most likely continue to go down as the decade continues.

What exactly is going on there with the Black population?

Senate District 5
()
Counties: Milwaukee and Waukesha  
Three Largest Entities: Wauwatosa, West Allis and Brookfield
PVI: R+10.5
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 45,236 (43.04%)/ Romney 59,046 (56.18%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 48,316 (45.23%)/ McCain 57,134 (53.49%)
Swing: 4.88% Republican
Trend: 2.09% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+10/R+3.5

Senator: Leah Vukmir
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Leah Vukmir 36,852 (52.15%)/ Incumbent Jim Sullivan 33,702 (47.69%) (2010 – Old Lines)
Obama Comparison: 2014 election
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Wauwatosa
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: Marquette University (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Masters)
Birthday: 4/26.1958
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Nurse Practitioner
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is one of the first districts that were gerrymandered in the 2011 redistricting cycle. The old 5th Assembly District was predominantly a western suburban Milwaukee County district that only went into Waukesha County to pick up about 11% of the district. In the new district Waukesha County makes up 41% of the district. This effectively turned a good toss up district into a safe Republican district. Also all three Assembly Districts, which were previously centered in the major cities in the district (Wauwatosa, West Allis and Eastern Brookfield) with 2 held by the Democrats, were transformed into horizontal strips which resulted in all three becoming safely Republican.        

Assembly District 13
()
Counties: Milwaukee and Waukesha  
PVI: R+11.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 15,203 (41.55%)/ Romney 20,982 (57.34%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,263 (44.82%)/ McCain 19,573 (53.94%)
Swing: 6.67% Republican
Trend: 0.3% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+10/D+3.5

Representative: Rob Hutton
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Rob Hutton 20,367 (60.5%)/ John Pokrandt 13,258 (39.4%) (Seat Flipped)
Obama Comparison: +2.17%  
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Brookfield
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Whitewater
Birthday: 4/7/1967
Place of Birth: N/A
Profession: Trucking CEO
Religion: Christian

Notes: This is now the center assembly district strip, consisting of Southern Brookfield, Elm Grove, Southern Wauwatosa and Northern West Allis. In the old map this district was centered in Eastern Wauwatosa and Western Milwaukee and was represented by  Democrat David Cullen for 23 years.

Assembly District 14
()
Counties: Milwaukee and Waukesha  
PVI: R+11
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 16,275 (42.82%)/ Romney 21,705 (57.11%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 17,142 (44.33%)/ McCain 21,113 (54.6%)
Swing: 4.02% Republican
Trend: 2.95% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+11/R+11

Representative: Dale Kooyenga
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Dale Kooyenga 20,976 (59.1%)/ Chris Rockwood 14,490 (40.8%)
Obama Comparison: +2.01%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Brookfield
Prior Offices: None
Education: Marquette University  
Birthday: 2/12/1979
Place of Birth: Oak Lawn, IL  
Profession: CPA
Religion: N/A

Notes: Based on the numbers this district didn’t change. Geographically the district went from being centered in Eastern Brookfield and the far western parts of Wauwatosa to being the northern assembly district strip.  

Assembly District 15
()
Counties: Milwaukee and Waukesha
PVI: R+8.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,758 (45.09%)/ Romney 16,359 (53.61%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,911 (46.81%)/ McCain 16,448 (51.63%)
Swing: 3.7% Republican
Trend: 3.27% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+9/R+3

Representative: Joe Sanfelippo
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Joe Sanfelippo 17,745 (58.3%)/ Cindy Moore 12,668 (41.6%) (Seat Flipped)
Obama Comparison: +3.48%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: West Allis
Prior Offices: None
Education: Marquette University  
Birthday: 2/26/1964
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Landscaping business
Religion: Catholic

Notes: This district is the southern strip district. This district used to be centered in West Allies and was represented by Democrat Tony Staskunas for 16 years. Interesting thing about the redistricting is that it effectively removed the social conservative Democrats that were popular in the Western suburbs of Milwaukee County, such as Rep. Staskunas.

I don't know what exactly is happening to the Black Community in Milwaukee, but I think its a similar occurrence to what's happening across the Rust Belt where Blacks are leaving and moving to Southern Cities.

Senate District 6
()
Counties: Milwaukee
Three Largest Entities: Milwaukee
PVI: D+33.5
Incumbent Party: D/DDD
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 77,993 (89.16%)/ Romney 9.336 (10.67%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 72.586 (87.26%)/ McCain 9,959 (11.97%)
Swing: 3.2% Democratic
Trend: 10.17% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+34.5/D+36

Senators: Nikiya Harris
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: Milwaukee County Board of Supervisors
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee  
Birthday: 2/22/1975
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Former nonprofit fundraising professional
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is the second of the two African American majority districts. African Americans make up 60.5 % of this district. The western part of Downtown Milwaukee and Marquette University are in this district.  

Assembly District 16
()
Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: D+36
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 25,647 (91.73%)/ Romney 2,548 (9.11%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 24,028 (88.97%)/ McCain 2,750 (10.18%)
Swing: 3.83% Democratic  
Trend: 10.8% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+37/D+35.5

Representative: Leon Young
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested  
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 1993
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: N/A
Birthday: 7/4/1967
Place of Birth: Los Angeles, California
Profession:  Police Officer
Religion: N/A

Notes:  This district is 58.2% African American. The western part of Downtown Milwaukee is in this district which includes Marquette University and the Bradley Center.

Assembly District 17
()
Counties: Milwaukee  
PVI: D+30.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 27,549 (85.93%)/ Romney 4,329 (13.5%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 25,324 (83.8%)/ McCain 4,329 (15.39%)
Swing: 4.02% Democratic
Trend: 10.99% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+31/D+37.5

Representative: La Tonya Johnson
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: La Tonya Johnson 20,288 (84.7%)/ Anthony Edwards (14.9%)
Obama Comparison: +1.2%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: Tennessee State  
Birthday: 6/22/1972
Place of Birth: La Grange, TN
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district is 60.4% African American. Not much else to say about this district.

Assembly District 18
()
Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: D+35.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 24,797 (90.31%)/ Romney 2,459 (8.96%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 23,757 (89.64%)/ McCain 2,575 (9.72%)
Swing: 1.43% Democratic
Trend: 8.4% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+37/D+35

Representative: Evan Goyke
()
Party: Democratic
Last Election: Evan Goyke 16,276 (87.9%)/ Melba Morris-Page (11.6%)
Obama Comparison: +2.38%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: St. John’s University (Bachelors)/ Marquette Univeristy(J.D.)
Birthday: 11/24/1982
Place of Birth: Neenah, WI
Profession: Assistant Public Defender
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district is 63.2% African American. Another example of a white representative in a African American district. The Miller Brewery Factory is in this district.

Senate District 7
()
Counties: Milwaukee  
Three Largest Entities: Milwaukee, Oak Creek and South Milwaukee
PVI: D+5.5
Incumbent Party: D/DDR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 57,658 (59.23%)/ Romney 38,104 (39.14%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 59,905 (61.23%)/ McCain 36,236 (37.04%)
Swing: 4.1% Republican
Trend: 2.87 Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+6.5/D+8

Representative: Chris Larson
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Chris Larson 37,165 (57.11%)/ Jess Ripp 27,772 (42.68%) (2010 – Old Lines)
Obama Comparison: 2014 election
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Milwaukee, WI
Prior Offices: Milwaukee County Board of Supervisors
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Birthday: 11/12/1980
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Sporting Goods Manager
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is the white lakeshore Milwaukee district and it didn’t radically change much in redistricting. The Oak Creek is a conservative suburb but the other three suburbs in the district (Cudahy, South Milwaukee and St. Francis) are more Democratic normally but did go to the Republicans in 2010. Even with those conservative areas, the district is too Democratic for a Republican to ever win.

Assembly District 19
()
Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: D+16.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 24,671 (69.66%)/ Romney 9,981 (28.18%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 26,494 (72.49%)/ McCain 9,315 (25.49%)
Swing: 5.52% Republican
Trend: 1.45 Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+20/D+18

Representative: Jon Richards
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 1999
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: N/A
Education: Lawrence University (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Madison (J.D.)
Birthday: 9/5/1963
Place of Birth: Waukesha, WI
Profession: Teacher
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is the Milwaukee lakeshore district. It also includes the eastern part of Downtown, the University of Wisconsin-Milaukee and the famous Summerfest Grounds.  

Assembly District 20
()
Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: D+4
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 18,437 (58.4%)/ Romney 12,670 (40.13%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 18,510 (58.25%)/ McCain 12,706 (39.98%)
Swing: 0.1% Republican
Trend: 6.87% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+4.5/D+2.5

Representative: Christine Sinicki
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election:  Christine Sinicki 16,995 (57.5%)/ Molly McGartand 12,500 (42.3%)
OBama Comparison: +0.88%
Serving Since: 1999
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: N/A
Education: N/A
Birthday: 3/28/1960
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Small Business Manager
Religion: A/A

Notes: This district includes General Mitchell International Airport and two of the Southeast Milwaukee County suburbs of Cudahy and St. Francis. As long as Rep. Sinicki represents this district it will be safe for the Democrats, but it could be competitive in an open election.

Assembly District 21
()
Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: R+5.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,550 (47.92%)/ Romney 15,453 (50.9%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,901 (50.48%)/ McCain 14,215 (48.16%)
Swing: 5.3% Republican
Trend: 1.67% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+6/R+5

Representative: Mark Hondel
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Mark Hondel 17,403 (59.3%)/ William Kurtz 11,921(40.6%)
Obama Comparison: +7.31%
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: South Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: Milwaukee Area Technical College
Birthday: 3/29/1956
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Industrial Manager
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is predominately an Oak Creek district along with South Milwaukee. Barring an open seat in a big Democratic year this is a safe Republican Seat.

interesting thread. It's weird to me how each senate seat is divided into 3 house seats. In Michigan there all separate, there are 38 senate seats and 110 house seats. I think I prefer the Michigan way though. I might do something like this for Michigan for the 2014 elections. In Michigan all the State Senate is up every 4 years with the governor in midterm years (2010,2014). the state house is up every two years. So the state senate was elected under the 2000 redistricting and 2014 will be all new seats (but gerrymandered by the Republicans). The state house was up under new seats in 2012.

Actually the African-American population of Milwaukee is growing. It was 37% in 2000 and 40% in 2010 (and the city as a whole grew slightly during that period so it's not a case of a smaller gross loss being a proportional increase).

My impression is that there is migration of African-Americans away from Chicago towards smaller cities in the region in general, so most cities within a few hours of Chicago have a growing Black population despite the general trend away from the Rust Belt towards the south.

I would certainly imagine those northwestern inner suburbs within the city to be getting Blacker still.
Beautiful thread; we need more like them.

Interesting, I don't think I would like the Michigan system because I like the fact that there is constancy in who everyone in your Assembly district is voting for. It allows things to be less confusing to have the lower house districts in the upper house districts. Know I would say that I would prefer to have the Minnesota system of only having 2 House seats per Senate district, but to have more Senate Districts. Minnesota has 67 Senate seats and then 134 House seats, while Wisconsin has 33 Senate seats and 99 Assembly seats. Minnesota and Wisconsin have very similar populations, but Minnesotans get better representation in both the Senate and the Lower House.


Thanks for giving me the heads up on that. I just assumed that because all of the old African American districts had less then the necessary population before redistricting, that meant that they where going elsewhere. Should be interesting to see what happens if their % of the city continues to grow as the Hispanic population continues to grow as well.


We'll have to see, the only suburb in the county that has a substantial African American population is Brown Deer. Many of those other suburbs in that area have extremely high property values, so it could be difficult of the African American population to take off there. Also thanks for the compliment on the thread! :)
 

Senate District 8
()
Counties: Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Washington and Waukesha  
Three Largest Entities: Menomonee Falls, Mequon and Germantown
PVI: 12.5%
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 41,832 (40.83%)/ Romney 60,861 (59.40%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 46,856 (43.37%)/ McCain 59,895 (55.44%)
Swing: 6.5% Republican
Trend: 0.44% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+11.5/R+3.5

Senator: Alberta Darling
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Uncontested  
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 1993
Hometown: River Hills
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison
Birthday: 4/28/1944
Place of Birth: Hammond, IN
Profession: Teacher
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is another one of the Milwaukee area districts that went from being potentially competitive to totally out of reach for Democrats. In the prior map, this district included more of the northern reaches of the City of Milwaukee and almost all of the Northeast suburbs. This new district pulled farther out of Milwaukee County and more into the hardcore Republican suburbs. This is the seat that took forever to call in the first set of recalls because of Waukesha County's Kathy Nickolaus.    

Assembly District 22
()
Counties: Milwaukee, Washington and Waukesha
PVI: R+18.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 12,682 (34.76%)/ Romney 23,670 (64.88%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 13,068 (37.17%)/ McCain 21,676 (61.51%)
Swing: 5.78% Republican
Trend: 1.16% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+18.5/D+10.5

Representative: Don Pridemore
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Uncontested  
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2005
Hometown: Hartford
Prior Offices: None
Education: Marquette University
Birthday: 10/20/1946
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: Another thing that happened in this district was that the Democratic Northeast Milwaukee County suburbs that made up the old 22nd were divided in two and given to the 23rd and 24th. This change was meant to target Rep. Sandy Pasch. The new 22nd moved to Southwest Washington County and Northeastern Waukesha County. One of the biggest partisan shifts for an assembly district and it is one of the first changes that I made in my map. Don Pridemore is currently running for State Superintendent.    

Assembly District 23
()
Counties: Milwaukee and Ozaukee
PVI: R+10
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 16,306 (42.36%)/ Romney 21,821 (56.69%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 17,158 (47.11%)/ Romney 18,872 (51.82%)
Swing: 2.56% Republican
Trend: 4.38% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+7.5/R+2.5


Representative: Jim Ott
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Jim Ott 22,536 (62.2%)/ Cris Rogers 13,669 (37.7%)
Obama Comparison: +4.63%
Serving Since: 2007
Hometown: Mequon
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Masters)/ Marquette University (J.D.)  
Birthday: 6/5/1947
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Professor
Religion: N/A

Notes:Has the Lakeshore part of the Northeast Milwaukee County suburbs. This area of the county will be fixed in my Wisconsin State Legislature maps. Went from a possibly competitive district to a safe Republican seat.  

Assembly District 24
()
Counties: Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Washington and Waukesha
PVI: R+9.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,902 (44.5%)/ Romney 18,259 (54.52%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,700 (45.52%)/ McCain 19,554 (53.29%)
Swing: 2.56% Republican
Trend: 4.38% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+9/R+19

Representative: Daniel Knodl  
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Daniel Knodl 20,932 (62.4%)/ Shan Haqqi (37.5%)
Obama Comparison: +6.97%
Serving Since: 2009
Hometown: Germantown
Prior Offices: None
Education: N/A
Birthday: 12/14/1958
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Resort Owner
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district becomes ten points less Republican, but it is still untouchable for any Democrat. Takes in the western part of the Northeastern Milwaukee County suburbs and goes up into Germantown and parts of Menomonee Falls.

Senate District 9
()
Counties: Calumet, Manitowoc and Sheboygan
Three Largest Entities: Sheboygan, Manitowoc and Plymouth
PVI: R+6.5
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 42,250 (45.87%)/ Romney 48,844 (53.03%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 45,938 (50.4%) McCain 43,790 (48.50%)
Swing: 9.59% Republican
Trend: 2.62% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+7.5/R+5.5

Senator: Joseph Leibham
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Joe Leibham 45,663 (73.11%)/ Jason Borden 15,775 (26.86%) (2010 – Old Lines)
Obama Comparison: 2014 election
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: Sheboygan
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison  
Birthday: 6/6/1969
Place of Birth: Sheboygan, WI
Profession: Account Executive
Religion: Lutheran

Notes: The one complaint that I have about this district is the split of Manitowoc and Two Rivers, with the later being in Senate District 1. You could exchange the Chilton area of Calumet County with Two Rivers and both districts would be better off. Another point to make is how much this area, especially Manitowoc County, has trended to Republicans over about the last 40 years. When Democrats won the state of Wisconsin between 1960 and 1996 they always won Manitowoc County and they always did decent in Sheboygan County. Now both counties are usually the last to go to the Democrats in a landslide scenario like Obama in 2008 and he still lost Sheboygan County by .65%.

Assembly District 25
()
Counties: Calumet and Manitowoc  
PVI: R+5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,782 (48.51%)/ Romney 15,201 (51.69%)  
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 15,004 (51.82%)/ McCain 13,445 (46.43%)
Swing: 10.22% Republican
Trend: 3.25% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+6/R+5.5

Representative: Paul Tittl  
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Paul Tittl 16,287 (57.6%)/ Jim Brey 11,947 (42.2%)  
Obama Comparison: +4.64%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Manitowoc
Prior Offices: None
Education: None
Birthday: 11/23/1961
Place of Birth: Delavan, WI
Profession: Owner of a Vacuum and Sewing Center
Religion: Christian

Notes: Due to the historical Democratic strength of this area, if there was a wave year I could see a Democrat winning this district. It should be noted that a Democrat did represent this district from 1993 to 2010. Robert Ziegelabuer became an independent that caucused with the Republicans from 2010 to 2013 due to issues he had with the Democratic leadership in the Assembly.    

Assembly District 26
()
Counties: Sheboygan
PVI: R+7.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,664 (45.05%)/ Romney 16,338 (53.86%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,973 (48.9%)/ McCain 15,165 (49.53%)
Swing: 8.18% Republican
Trend: 1.21% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+9/D+0.5

Representative: Michael Endsley
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Michael Endsley 15,018 (51.3%)/ Mike Helmke 14,257 (48.7%)
Obama Comparison: -3.62%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Sheboygan
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Platteville  
Birthday: 3/4/1962
Place of Birth: Sheboygan, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: Lutheran

Notes: As you can see on the map, the City of Sheboygan was split in two, which makes this district pretty much unwinnable. I am shocked to see how well the Democrat did here in the last election, but my guess is that’s the best one could do given how Republican the southern part of this district is.  

Assembly District 27
()
Counties: Calumet, Manitowoc and Sheboygan
PVI: R+6.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,804 (45.75%)/ Romney 17,305 (53.47%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 15,961 (50.56%)/ McCain 15,180 (48.09%)
Swing: 10.19% Republican
Trend: 3.22% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+8/R+10

Representative: Steve Kestell
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Steve Kestell 18,101 (57.9%)/ 13,148 (42%)
Obama Comparison: +3.7%
Serving Since: 1999
Hometown: Elkhart Lake, WI
Prior Offices: None
Education: N/A
Birthday: 6/15/1955
Place of Birth: Lyndon, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: Christian

Notes: This district got the northern half of the City of Sheboygan, which did cause this district to become two points more Democratic. This is still though unwinnable for the Democrats.  

Senate District 10
()
Counties: Burnett, Dunn, Pierce, Polk and St. Croix  
Three Largest Entities: Menomonie, River Falls and Hudson
PVI: R+6
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 42,328 (46.5%)/ Romney 47,919 (52.65%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 46,187 (50.42%)/ McCain 43,666 (47.67%)
Swing: 8.9% Republican
Trend: 1.93% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+6/R+6

Senator: Sheila Harsdorf
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Shelia Harsdorf 51,911 (59.2%)/ Daniel Olson 35,728 (40.7%)
Serving Since: 2001
Hometown: River Falls
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Minnesota-Twin Cities
Birthday: 7/25/1956
Place of Birth: St. Paul, MN
Profession: N/A
Religion: Lutheran

Notes: This is Wisconsin’s Twin Cities Metro Area district and like the far suburban/exurban areas in Minnesota, this district rapidly moved away from the Democrats since 2000. Carter, Dukakis and Clinton all preformed very strongly in this region of the state and Carter actually won this district in 1980 against Regan. Yet since then this district has rapidly swung to the right. It was the only large area of the state to trend against Obama in 2008 even though he did win it. It would take a major wave for a Democrat to come close.

Assembly District 28
()
Counties: Burnett, Polk and St. Croix  
PVI: R+9
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 12,833 (43.59%)/ Romney 16,093 (54.66%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 13,839 (46.97%)/ McCain 15,032 (51.02%)
Swing: 7.02% Republican
Trend: 0.05% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+9/R+8.5

Representative: Erik Severson
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Erik Severson 15,865 (56.2%)/ Adam T. Bever 12,347 (43.7%)
Obama Comparison: +0.13%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Star Prairie  
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Minnesota-Duluth (Bachelors)/ Mayo Medical School (M.D.)
Birthday: 2/3/1974
Place of Birth: Duluth, MN
Profession: Physician
Religion: N/A

Notes: Interesting note about this district is a Democrat actually served here for two terms and only lost out in the 2010 Republican Wave. So while the numbers don’t look great here, it is possible for a Democrat to win here, but it would probably take a 2006 like wave.  

Assembly District 29
()
Counties: Dunn and St. Croix  
PVI: R+4
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,615 (48.32%)/ Romney 15,052 (49.76%)  
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 15,525 (52.65%)/ Romney 13,379 (45.37%)
Swing: 8.72% Republican
Trend: 1.75% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+4.5/R+5

Representative: John Murtha
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: John Murtha 15,237 (55.8%)/ Jim Swanson 12,004 (44%)
Obama Comparison: +4.33%
Serving Since: 2007
Hometown: Baldwin
Prior Offices: St. Croix County Supervisor  
Education: Chippewa Valley Tech
Birthday: 8/8/1951
Place of Birth: Baldwin, WI
Profession: Self-Employed
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district could be potentially competitive whenever Rep. Murtha chooses to retire. The college town of Menominee and the swingy New Richmond could push the district to the Democrats under the right conditions.  

Assembly District 30
()
Counties: Pierce and St. Croix  
PVI: R+10
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,880 (47.49%)/ Romney 16,774 (53.53%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,823 (51.52%)/ McCain 15,255 (46.72%0
Swing: 10.84% Republican
Trend: 3.87% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+5/R+5

Representative: Dean Knudson
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Dean Knudson 17,261 (55.8%)/ Diane Odeen 13,657 (44.1%)
Obama Comparison: +3.55%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Hudson
Prior Offices: Mayor of Hudson, Hudson Alderperson
Education: North Dakota State University (Bachelors),  Iowa State University (D.V.M.)
Birthday: 4/29/1961
Place of Birth: Mayville, ND
Profession: Veterinarian
Religion: Lutheran

Notes: In a wave year this district too could be competitive as River Falls is a college town and Hudson will vote for the Democrat sometimes. Would probably need for Rep. Knudson to retire and have a wave year for that to happen though.  

I just did the number crunching for SD-17, which is Shultz's district in the Southwest part of the state. He represents a D+3.5 district and there are 3 Republican Representatives that represent D+4, D+0.5 and a D+6.5 districts. If the Democrats are going to even try to get competitive in the legislature they need to take all for of these seats. There is no reason a Republican should be representing a D+6.5 district.   

Wait a minute.  Why would a district where Romney only got 42% of vote be "competitive" for Republicans in 2014 while seats that gave Obama a percentage in the high 40's only be competitive for Democrats in a "wave" and with an open seat. 

It looks like AD-07 is trending Dem and is about D+6.  Republicans are not winning a seat like that even in a 2010 like envrionment.  Even Kerry probably won there for God's sake. 

Statewide this district is only D+2 and If you average the results of Walker and Johnson in 2010, the Republicans  actually won AD-07 by 1.6%. Local Democrats do tend to do better in this area of Milwaukee, but it is very much a working class/blue collar district and it wouldn't shock me if a Republican won here in a wave.

Why were Senate districts 3 and 7 drawn the way they were?

There are some Republican stranded in Assembly district 7 and a lot of liberals in Assembly district  19. These could be exchanged.

Assembly districts 7, 20, 21 total out to roughly a 55% Obama district.

That's an interesting point and I never thought about it that way. The only reason I could think as to why they didn't draw it that was appearance, as this new SD7 wouldn't look to pretty, and probably the precedent of having a Southern Milwaukee district and a Lakeshore Milwaukee district. If you look at the entire map, the legislature really didn't blow up or radically alter any of the Senate Districts, Assembly is a different story. 

Sorry for the delay on this project. I have been doing all of the calculations and add ups for all of the districts the past few weeks. I also went back and added the PVI's for each district, using 2008 and 2012 data, and I showed well the Democratic candidate compared to Obama's 2012 performance in that district.

Senate District 11 will be posted soon!

Senate District 11
()
Counties: Jefferson, Kenosha, Racine, Rock, Walworth and Waukesha
Three Largest Entities: Fort Atkinson, Elkhorn and Delavan
PVI: R+9
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 38,816 (43.47%)/ Romney 50,298 (56.33%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 41,149 (47.39%)/ McCain 44,467 (51.21%)
Swing: 9.04% Republican
Trend: 2.07% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+10.5/R+17.5

Senator: Neal Kedzie
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Neal Kedzie 55,121 (75.37%)/ L.D. Rockwell 17,955 (24.55%)  
Obama Comparison: 2014 election
Serving Since: 2002
Hometown: Elkhorn
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Whitewater  
Birthday: 1/27/1956
Place of Birth: Waukesha, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: Catholic

Notes: The main reason for the 7 point Republican drop in this district is that in order to pull the 5th, the 9th and 13th more into the Milwaukee suburbs, this district had to be pushed into more Democratic leaning areas. This is still a super safe Republican district and the Democrats have no chance. 

Assembly District 31
()
Counties: Rock and Walworth
PVI: R+6
2012 Presidential Election: 14,064 (46.48%)/ 15,850 (52.39%)
2008 Presidential Election: 14,819 (50.89%)/ 13,894 (47.72%)
Swing: 9.08% Republican
Trend: 2.11% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+6.5/R+17.5

Representative: Amy Loudenbeck
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Amy Loudenbeck 16,463 (56.5%)/ Ryan Schroeder 12,653 (43.4%)
Obama Comparison: +3.07
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Clinton
Prior Offices: Town of Clinton supervisor
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison
Birthday: 9/29/1969
Place of Birth: Midland, MI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: Representative Loudenbeck won the Beloit based Assembly District 45 in 2010. This district was a D+4.5 and she would have lost in all likelihood lost in 2012. So the Republican legislature created a district for her that includes her hometown of Clinton, the eastern parts of Rock County which is more Republican then the rest of the county and the western part of Walworth County.

Assembly District 32
()
Counties: Kenosha, Racine and Walworth  
PVI: R+10.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 10,745 (41.18%)/ Romney 15,006 (57.51%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 12,740 (46.58%)/ McCain 14,203 (51.93%)
Swing: 10.98% Republican
Trend: 4.01% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+12/R+10.5

Representative: Tyler August
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Tyler August 15,586 (57.1%)/ Kim Peterson 10,828 (39.7%)
Obama Comparison: +1.51
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Lake Geneva
Prior Offices: None
Education: N/A
Birthday: 1/26/1983
Place of Birth: N/A
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district just shifted around a bit. Was a southern Walworth County district, but is now a eastern Walworth County district.   

Assembly District 33
()
Counties: Jefferson, Walworth and Waukesha
PVI: R+11
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,007 (41.27%)/ Romney 19,442 (57.28%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 13,604 (44.47%)/ McCain 16,398 (53.93%)
Swing: 6.82% Republican
Trend: 0.15% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+12.5/R+22

Representative: Stephen Nass
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Stephen Nass 18,891 (62.8%)/ Scott Woods 10,229 (34%)
Obama Comparison: +7.27%
Serving Since: 1990
Hometown: Whitewater
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Whitewater
Birthday: 10/7/1952
Place of Birth: Whitewater, WI
Profession: Information Analyst/Negotiator/Payroll Benefits Analyst
Religion: N/A

Notes: This was one of 3 districts that was designed to target Democratic Representative Andy Jorgensen who had represented Assembly District 37. The old district was R+1.5 and it was composed of eastern Dane County and the more Democratic parts of western Jefferson County. So the Assembly map were drawn to split this district into 3 parts and pull them into Waukesha County, making them uncompetitive. 

Stephen Nass looks remarkably like Tyler August. -_-

One really useful thing would be to caption each senate district with the components of its house districts.


IE:

SD-07: DDR
SD-11: RRR


Good maps though.

I fixed Stephen Nass' picture and added a Party Incumbent section. Also I realized I forgot to give notes on the SD11 section, so that will be added tonight.   

This would make me very happy! :)

I'm a little depressed he won't run against Walker, but Wisconsin has to be dealing with buyers' remorse right now.

Senate District 12
()
Counties: Florence, Forest, Langlade, Lincoln, Marathon, Marinette, Menominee, Oconto, Oneida, Shawano and Vilas
Three Largest Entities: Merrill, Antigo and Rhinelander
PVI: R+5.5
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 43,774 (45.91%)/ Romney 50,411 (52.87%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 49,005 (52.14%)/ McCain 43,461 (46.24%)
Swing: 12.86% Republican
Trend: 5.89% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+5/R+4.5

Senator: Thomas Tiffany
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Thomas Tiffany 51,176 (56.2%)/ Susan Sommer (40.5%)  
Obama Comparison: +5.41%  
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Hazelhurst
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly, Town Supervisor
Education: University of Wisconsin-River Falls
Birthday: 12/30/1957
Place of Birth: Wabasha, MN
Profession: Agriculture and Petroleum business
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district did not fundamentally change due to redistricting. What did change was former State Senator Jim Holperin (D-Conover) retired. There was no democrat waiting in the wings that could replace him in this Republican district.

Assembly District 34
()
Counties: Florence, Forest, Oneida and Vilas  
PVI: R+7
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 16,108 (44.62%)/ Romney 19,550 (54.15%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 17,732 (50.58%)/ McCain 16,747 (47.77%)
Swing: 12.34% Republican
Trend: 5.37% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+6.5/R+5.5

Representative: Rob Swearingen
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Rob Swearingen 19,442 (57.2%)/ Merlin Van Buren 12,297 (36.2%)
Obama Comparison: +8.47%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Rhinelander
Prior Offices: None
Education: None
Birthday: 7/23/1963
Place of Birth: Rhinelander, WI
Profession: Restaurant Owner and Operator
Religion: N/A

Notes: Due to loss of population over the decade, this district had to expand. Other than that it’s a safe Republican seat.  

Assembly District 35
()
Counties: Langland, Lincoln, Marathon, Oneida and Shawano  
PVI: R+4.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,150 (47.09%)/ Romney 15,528 (51.68%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 15, 931 (53.40%/ McCain 13,365 (44.80%)
Swing: 13.19% Republican
Trend: 6.22% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+4.5/R+3.5

Representative: Mary Czaja
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Mary Czaja 15,481 (53.3%)/ Kevin Koth 12,149 (41.8%)
Obama Comparison: +5.26%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Irma
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-River Falls
Birthday: 9/25/1963
Place of Birth: Tomahawk, WI
Profession: Small Business Owner
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district essentially stays the same. This is a district the Dems would have to win in order to bring the margin down in the Assembly.

Assembly District 36
()
Counties: Forest, Langlade, Marinette, Menominee, Oconto and Shawano  
PVI: R+5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,516 (46.29%)/ Romney 15,333 (52.51%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 15,549 (52.81%)/ McCain 13,479 (45.78%)
Swing: 13.25% Republican
Trend: 6.28% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+4.5/R+3.5

Representative: Jeffrey Mursau
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Jeffrey Mursau 15,886 (59.1%)/ Dorothy Kegley 10,997 (40.9%)  
Obama Comparison: +5.41%
Serving Since: 2005
Hometown: Crivitz
Prior Offices: Crivitz Village President
Education: N/A  
Birthday: 6/12/1954
Place of Birth: Oconto Falls, WI
Profession: Small Busniess Owner  
Religion: Roman Catholic

Notes: No major changes to this district. Another district Dems would have to win in order to get closer in the Assembly.  

Senate District 13
()
Counties: Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Jefferson, Washington and Waukesha
Three Largest Entities: Watertown, Beaver Damn and Oconomowoc
PVI: R+9.5
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 40,510 (43.08%)/ Romney 52,481 (55.80%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 41,273 (47.16%)/ McCain 45,026 (51.45%)
Swing: 8.43% Republican
Trend: 1.49% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+9.5/R+9

Senator: Scott Fitzgerald
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Scott Fitzgerald 47,146 (58.3%)/ Lori Compas 32,909 (40.7%) (2012 Recall)
Obama Comparison: 2014 Election
Serving Since: 1995
Hometown: Juneau
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh 
Birthday: 11/16/1963
Place of Birth: Chicago, IL
Profession: Business Owner 
Religion: Roman Catholic

Notes: In order to go after Representative Andy Jorgensen, who had represented the 37th Assembly District, this district had to pull out of the more Democratic friendly areas of Jefferson County. To make up this population they went into Washington County, further into Waukesha County and into Dane County. These changes didn’t affect the Republican strength of this district and it is still a Safe Republican seat. Scott Fitzgerald is the Majority Leader in the State Senate.     

Assembly District 37
()
Counties: Columbia, Dane, Dodge and Jefferson   
PVI: R+7
2012 Presidential Election: 13,698 (45.68%)/ Romney 15,898 (53.01%)
2008 Presidential Election: 14,271 (49.45%)/ McCain 14,122 (48.93%)
Swing: 7.85% Republican
Trend: 0.91% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+7.5/R+1.5

Representative: John Jagler
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: John Jagler 15,799 (54.2%)/ Mary Arnold 13,289 (45.6)
Obama Comparison: +0.13
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Watertown
Prior Offices: None
Education: Trans-American School of Broadcasting (Madison)
Birthday: 11/4/1969
Place of Birth: Louisville, KY
Profession: Owner of a Communication and consulting firm
Religion: N/A

Notes: The new 37th takes most of the area of what was once the 38th. There are some areas of Democratic strength, especially in Columbus, Deforest and Waterloo, but this strength is drowned out by Watertown and the eastern parts of Jefferson County. This district is too far out of reach for the Democrats. The old 37th was a lean Democratic seat.   

Assembly District 38
()
Counties: Dane, Dodge and Waukesha 
PVI: R+10.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,249 (41.67%)/ Romney 19,635 (57.42%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 13,968 (46.83%)/ McCain 15,500 (51.96%)
Swing: 10.61% Republican
Trend: 3.68% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+9.5/R+15.5

Representative: Joel Kleefisch
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Joel Kleefisch 19,181 (58.5%)/ Scott Michalak 12,795 (39%)   
Obama Comparison: +2.64%
Serving Since: 2004
Hometown: Oconomowoc
Prior Offices: None
Education: Pepperdine University
Birthday: 6/8/1971
Place of Birth: Waukesha, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This takes up a lot of area that was once the 37th. Similar to the 37th this district has some very Democratic areas with Cambridge, Deerfield, Lake Mills and Marshall, but that Oconomowoc in Waukesha County drowns all out. This district did become 6 points more Democratic with redistricting, but it is still a totally safe Republican seat. Rep. Joel Kleefisch is married to Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch.   

Assembly District 39
()
Counties: Dodge and Washington
PVI: R+11
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 12,563 (42.07%)/ Romney 16,498 (56.75%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 13,034 (45.21%)/ McCain 15,404 (53.43%)
Swing: 6.46% Republican
Trend: 0.48% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+12.5/R+10.5

Representative: Mark Born
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Mark Born 17,465 (60.4%)/ Jim Grigg 11,446 (39.6%)
Obama Comparison: +2.51%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Beaver Dam
Prior Offices:   
Education: Gustavus Adolphus University   
Birthday: 4/14/1976
Place of Birth: Beaver Dam, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: Lutheran

Notes: This district stays pretty much the same other then shifting a bit to the east and into Washington County. This is still a safe Republican seat. 

Senate District 13
()
Counties: Adams, Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green Lake, Marquette, Outagamie, Sauk, Waupaca and Waushara. 
Three Largest Entities: Ripon, New London and Waupaca   
PVI: R+5
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 41,461 (48.08%)/ Romney 43,871 (50.87%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 44,027 (51.22%)/ McCain 40,650 (47.29%)
Swing: 6.72% Republican
Trend: 0.25% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+5.5/R+5

Senator: Luther Olsen
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Luther Olsen 47,137 (57.5%)/ Margarete Worthington 34,742 (42.4%) 
Obama Comparison: +5.68
Serving Since: 2005
Hometown: Ripon
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison
Birthday: 2/26/1951
Place of Birth: Berlin, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: The biggest change to this district is the southern part of district now takes in the area that was once Assembly District 47 instead of Assembly District 42. This was done in order to make life difficult for Rep. Fred Clark who was running against Senator Luther Olsen in the 2011 recalls. He lived in Baraboo, which would have been in the new 27th Senate District. He would have had to move. Other than that the district’s partisan numbers stayed the same.

Assembly District 40
()
Counties: Outagamie, Waupaca and Waushara 
PVI: R+6.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 12,819 (45.16%)/ Romney 15,352 (54.08%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,551 (50.49%)/ McCain 13,844 (48.04%)
Swing: 11.37% Republican
Trend: 4.40% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+6.5/R+6.5

Representative: Kevin Petersen
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison Uncontested
Serving Since:  2007
Hometown: Waupaca
Prior Offices: Town of Dayton Supervisor
Education: University of New Mexico 
Birthday: 12/14/1963
Place of Birth: Waupaca, WI
Profession: Co-Owner of a Family Run Electronics Corporation
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district remains a primarily Waupaca district, which means it’s a safe Republican Seat. 

Assembly District 41
()
Counties: Adams, Columbia, Fond du Lac, Green Lake, Marquette and Waushara   
PVI: R+4.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,780 (48.51%)/ Romney 14,279 (50.27%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,345 (51.51%)/ McCain 13,061 (46.90%)
Swing: 5.21% Republican
Trend: 1.76% Democrat
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+5.5/R+10.5

Representative: Joan Ballweg
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Joan Ballweg 15,035 (57.9%)/ Melissa Sorenson 10,906 (42%)
Obama Comparison: +6.5%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Markesan
Prior Offices: Mayor Of Markesan
Education: University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Birthday: 3/16/1952
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Co-Owner of Farm Equipment Business
Religion: Roman Catholic

Notes: By taking in more of Adams and Marquette County this district shifted 5 points to the Democrats. On the state level is very much a Republican district and it would take a 2010 like wave in favor of the Democrats for them to have a chance.     

Assembly District 42
()
Counties: Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Green, Fond du Lac and Marquette
PVI: R+3.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 15,541 (50.75%)/ Romney 14,715 (48.06%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 15,131 (51.68%)/ McCain 13,745 (46.94%)
Swing: 2.05% Republican
Trend: 4.92% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+5/D+1.5

Representative: Keith Ripp
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Keith Ripp 16,394 (56.6%)/ Paula Cooper 12,567 (43.4%)
Obama Comparison: +7.38
Serving Since: 2009
Hometown: Lodi
Prior Offices: Town of Dane Supervisor
Education: N/A 
Birthday: 11/13/1961
Place of Birth: Madison, WI
Profession: Farmer and Small Business Owner
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is essentially the old 47th Assembly District. The older version of this district was D+2.5 and this district did move out of Dane County enough to be safe for Rep. Keith Ripp. This is still a district that Dems need to win if they want to get closer in the Assembly.   

Senate District 15
()
Counties: Dane, Green, Jefferson, Rock and Walworth
Three Largest Entities: Janesville, Beloit and Whitewater   
PVI: D+8.5
Incumbent Party: D/DDD
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 52,344 (61.39%)/ Romney 31,653 (37.12%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 55,225 (64.61%)/ McCain 28,848 (33.7%)
Swing: 6.59% Republican
Trend: 0.31% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+8/D+6.5

Senator: Timothy Cullen
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Timothy Cullen 31,918 (58.98%)/ Rick Richard 22,181 (40.99%)   
Obama Comparison: 2014 Election
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Janesville
Prior Offices: Janesville City Council and Wisconsin State Senate from 1974-1986
Education: University of Wisconsin-Whitewater 
Birthday: 2/25/1944
Place of Birth: Janesville, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: The district shifts out of Eastern Rock and Walworth Counties and into Southeastern Dane and Western Green Counties. As a result the district becomes a point and a half more Democratic. Very safe seat for the Democrats.

Assembly District 43
()
Counties: Dane, Jefferson, Rock and Walworth 
PVI: D+5.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 18,478 (58.13%)/ Romney 12,729 (40.04%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 19,619 (61.86%)/ McCain 11,573 (36.49%)
Swing: 7.28% Republican
Trend: 0.31% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+5.5/D+4

Representative: Andy Jorgenson
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Andy Jorgenson 17,612 (57.6%)/ Evan Wynn 12,894 (42.2%)
Obama Comparison: +0.55%
Serving Since: 2007
Hometown: Fort Atkinson
Prior Offices: None
Education: Brown Institute (MN)
Birthday: 9/10/1967
Place of Birth: Berlin, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: Lutheran

Notes: This district shifted to the north into Dane and Jefferson Counties. As a result it got more Democratic. This was one example of an incumbent versus incumbent race. The former Representative for this district was Republican Evan Wynn, who won a district in the 2010 wave that he had no business holding. Democrat Andy Jorgenson moved from his home in Fort Atkinson that is now in the very Republican District 37, to the southern rural area just outside of Fort Atkinson and he won this district easily. 

Assembly District 44
()
Counties: Rock
PVI: D+10.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 17,332 (63.20%)/ Romney 9,802 (35.74%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 18,560 (67.24%)/ McCain 8,619 (31.22%)
Swing: 8.56% Republican
Trend: 1.59% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+11/D+11.5

Representative: Debra Kolste
()
Party: Democratic
Last Election: Debra Kolste 16,983 (61.5%)/ Joe Knilans 10,571 (38.3%)
Obama Comparison: +1.66%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Janesville
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Nebraska
Birthday: 6/20/1953
Place of Birth: O’Neill, NE
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district remains essentially the same. This is the 3rd of the Rock County districts that Republicans gained in the 2010 wave and this was the worst for the Democrats. Joe Knilans in 2010 defeated the Speaker of the Assembly Mike Sheridan by about 500 votes. This district corrected itself in 2012 by a large margin. 

Assembly District 45
()
Counties: Green and Rock
PVI: D+9
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 16,534 (63.45%)/ Romney 9,122 (35.01%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 17,046 (65.17%)/ McCain 8,656 (33.10%)
Swing: 3.63% Republican
Trend: 3.34% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+7/D+4.5

Representative: Janis Ringhand
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Janis Ringhand 15,753 (63.7%)/ Beth Schmidt 8,906 (36%)
Obama Comparison: -0.30
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Evansville, WI
Prior Offices: Evansville City Council and Mayor of Evansville
Education: Madison Area Technical College 
Birthday: 2/13/1950
Place of Birth: Madison, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district is a mix of the former 43rd, 45th and 80th. Gets more Democratic to the point were it would be impossible to see a Republican win here, especially with the popular Janis Ringhand as the incumbent.   

Senate District 16
()
Counties: Dane
Three Largest Entities: Madison, Sun Prairie and Fitchburg
PVI: D+16.5
Incumbent Party: D/DDD
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 71,100 (71.22%)/ Romney 28,520 (28.57%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 65,267 (70.94%)/ McCain 25,557 (27.78%)
Swing: 0.51% Republican
Trend: 6.46% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+16/D+12

Senator: Mark Miller
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2005
Hometown: Monona
Prior Offices: Dane County Board of Supervisors and Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison 
Birthday: 2/1/1943
Place of Birth: Boston, MA
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This senate district shrunk in size as it moved further into the City of Madison and out of Columbia County. As a result the district moved 4 points to the Democrats.   

Assembly District 46
()
Counties: Dane
PVI: D+10.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 20,895 (65.33%)/ Romney 11,754 (36.75%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 19,583 (64.79%)/ Romney 10,283 (34.02%)
Swing: 2.19% Republican
Trend: 4.78% Democrat
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+9.5/D+9.5

Representative: Gary Hebl
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Gary Hebl 20,171 (64.8%)/ Trish Schaefer 10,951 (35.2%)
Obama Comparison: +0.54%
Serving Since: 2005
Hometown: Sun Prairie
Prior Offices: 
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison (Bachelors)/ Gonzaga University (J.D.)
Birthday: 5/15/1951
Place of Birth:
Profession: Lawyer
Religion: N/A

Notes: The only change to this district was it got smaller by sheading its part of Oregon and some of the southern rural townships. Is still a very safe Democratic seat.   

Assembly District 47
()
Counties: Dane
PVI: D+16.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 23,862 (70.92%)/ Romney 9,347(27.78%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 22,418 (71.57%)/ McCain 8,468 (27.78%)
Swing: 1.39% Republican
Trend: 5.58% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+18/D+2.5

Representative: Robb Kahl
()
Party: Democratic
Last Election: Robb Kahl 22,113 (70.9%)/ 9,054 (29%)
Obama Comparison: +0.05%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Monona
Prior Offices: Monona City Council and Mayor of Monona
Education: Ripon College (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Madison (J.D.)
Birthday: 1/5/1972
Place of Birth: Menomonee Falls, WI
Profession: Lawyer
Religion: N/A

Notes: The new 47th takes up most of the area that was in the former 48th and a bit of 79th in Fitchburg. This is very safe Eastside Madison district.

Assembly District 48
()
Counties: Dane
PVI: D+22
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 26,343 (77.01%)/ Romney 7,419 (21.69%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 23,382 (76.41%)/ McCain 6,825 (22.30%)
Swing: 1.21% Democratic
Trend: 8.18% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+23.5/D+22

Representative: Melisa Sargent 
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Melissa Sargent 24,275 (83.2%)/ Terry Gray 4,849 (Libertarian) (16.6%)
Obama Comparison: -6.19%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Madison
Prior Offices: Dane County Board of Supervisors
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison
Birthday: 3/28/1969
Place of Birth: Madison, WI
Profession: Small Business Owner
Religion: N/A

Notes: This essentially new district is centered in Northside and Northeast parts of Madison. This is an extremely safe district for the Democrats.

Senate District 17
()
Counties: Grant, Green, Iowa, Juneau, Layette, Monroe, Richland, Sauk and Vernon
Three Largest Entities: Platteville, Monroe and Reedsburg     
PVI: D+3.5
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 46,556 (56.59%)/ Romney 34,753 (42.25%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 48,485 (59.84%)/ McCain 31,297 (38.62%)
Swing: 6.88% Republican
Trend: 0.09% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+2/D+2.5

Senator: Dale Shultz
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Dale Shultz 36,122 (62.6%)/ Carol Beals 21,580 (37.4%) 
Obama Comparison: 2014 Election
Serving Since: 1991
Hometown: Richland Center
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison
Birthday: 6/12/1953
Place of Birth: Madison, WI
Profession: Farm Manager and Real Estate Broker
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district got slightly more Republican through redistricting. This happened by pulling out of Democratic friendly areas in Eastern Iowa County and Eastern Sauk County. Yet Obama still won this district by more then 14 points, but for some reason it is still a lean Republican district on the local level and it will stay that was as long as Dale Shultz is the Senator. It is also not that surprising that Senator Shultz is the most moderate Republican in the Sate Senate and he's been a pain in the side for the Republican Leadership. Representative Howard Marklein is primarying Senator Shultz from the right for the 2014 election.

Assembly District 49
()
Counties: Grant, Iowa, Lafayette and Richland
PVI: D+4
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 15,274 (56.19%)/ Romney 11,457 (42.15%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,606 (61.13%)/ McCain 10,138 (37.32%)
Swing: 9.77% Republican
Trend: 2.80% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+2.5/D+2.5

Representative: Travis Tranel
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Travis Tranel 14,218 (54.2%)/ Carol Beals 11,977 (45.7%)
Obama Comparison: +10.54
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Cuba City
Prior Offices: None
Education: Loras College 
Birthday: 9/12/1985
Place of Birth: Dubuque, IA
Profession: Dairy Farmer and Small Business Owner
Religion: Roman Catholic

Notes: This district stayed relatively the same with redistricting as it is still centered in Grant County. A Democrat should be holding this district and there is no way of getting close in the Assembly without this district. 

Assembly District 50
()
Counties: Juneau, Monroe, Richland, Sauk and Vernon   
PVI: D+0.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,430 (53.97%)/ Romney 11,961 (44.73%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,374 (55.83%)/ McCain 10,942 (42.50%)
Swing: 4.09% Republican
Trend: 2.88% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+2/R+2

Representative: Edward Brooks
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Edward Brooks 12,842 (50.3%)/ Sarah Shanahan 11,945 (46.8%) 
Obama Comparison: +7.19%
Serving Since: 2009
Hometown: Reedsburg 
Prior Offices: Town Supervisor
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison
Birthday: 7/1/1942
Place of Birth: Baraboo, WI
Profession: Dairy Producer
Religion: Lutheran

Notes: This district also stayed about the same, with the only noticeable change is it looks a bit uglier on the bottom. This is another district that Democrats need to win, but it would take a wave to knock out Representative Brooks.

Assembly District 51
()
Counties: Green, Iowa, Lafayette, Richland and Sauk
PVI: D+6.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 16,852 (59.46%)/ Romney 11,335 (40.00%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 17,405 (62.33%)/ McCain 10,136 (36.30%)
Swing: 6.52% Republican
Trend: 0.45% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+5/D+7

Representative: Howard Marklein
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Howard Marklein 14,279 (51.9%)/ Maureen May-Grimm 13,238 (48.1%)
Obama Comparison: +11.41%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Spring Green
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Whitewater 
Birthday: 10/3/1954
Place of Birth: Madison, WI
Profession: CPA and Fraud Examiner
Religion: Roman Catholic

Notes: This district moved a couple points to the right by moving out of Eastern Iowa and Sauk Counties, but this seat should be held by a Democratic. There is no excuse as even Barrett and Feingold won this district in 2010. Maybe the Democrats will get lucky and Representative Marklein will knock out Senator Shultz resulting in the Democrats winning they can win both this Assembly seat and Senate seat.

Senate District 18
()
Counties: Dodge, Fond du Lac and Winnebago
Three Largest Entities: Oshkosh, Fond du Lac and Waupun   
PVI: R+4.5
Incumbent Party: R/RRD
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 42,970 (48.65%)/ Romney 44,063 (49.89%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 44,473 (51.24%)/ McCain 41,061 (47.31%)
Swing: 5.17% Republican
Trend: 1.80% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+5.5/R+.5.5

Senator: Richard Gudex
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Richard Gudex 43,079 (50.3%)/ Jessica King 42,479 (49.6%)
Obama Comparison: -0.95%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Fond du Lac
Prior Offices: Mayor of Mayville and Fond du Lac City Council 
Education: N/A
Birthday: 7/23/1968
Place of Birth: Fond du Lac, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: Roman Catholic

Notes: This district did not change due to redistricting. This was one of three districts where a recall was successful. Jessica King was probably the best candidate to win and hold this district. She came close to keeping it, but its partisan nature was too much to overcome.

Assembly District 52
()
Counties: Fond du Lac
PVI: R+8
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,248 (44.97%)/ Romney 15,857 (53.82%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 13,774 (48.01%)/ McCain 14,579 (50.82%)
Swing: 6.04% Republican
Trend: 0.93% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+9.5/R+8

Representative: Jeremy Thiesfeldt
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Jeremy Thiesfeldt 16,313 (60.6%)/ Paul Czisny 10.575 (39.3%)
Obama Comparison: +5.66%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Fond du Lac
Prior Offices: Fond du Lac City Council
Education: Dr. Martin Luther College
Birthday: 11/22.1966
Place of Birth: Fond du Lac, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: Lutheran

Notes: This district got a point and a half more Republican, not that it really matters as this is a safe Republican district.   

Assembly District 53
()
Counties: Dodge, Fond du Lac and Winnebago
PVI: R+10.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 12,258 (43.28%)/ Romney 15,705 (55.45%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 12,116 (44.65%)/ McCain 14,588 (53.76%)
Swing: 3.06% Republican
Trend: 3.91% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+11.5/R+12

Representative: Michael Schraa
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Michael Schraa 15,844 (60.3%)/ Ryan Flejter 10,410 (39.6%)
Obama Comparison: +3.68%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Oshkosh
Prior Offices: N/A
Education: University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh
Birthday: Fort Carson, CO
Place of Birth: 5/17/1961
Profession: Restaurant Owner
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district trades a few townships with the 52nd District, still a safe Republican district. 

Assembly District 54
()
Counties: Winnebago
PVI: D+4
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 17,464 (57.18%)/ Romney 12,501 (40.93%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 18,583 (60.00%)/ McCain 11,894 (38.40%)
Swing: 5.35% Republican
Trend: 1.62% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+3.5/D+3.5

Representative: Gordon Hintz
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Gordon Hintz 17,400 (59.9%)/ Paul Essinger 11,594 (39.9%)
Obama Comparison: -2.70%
Serving Since: 2007
Hometown: Oshkosh
Prior Offices: None   
Education: Hamline University (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Madison (MBA)
Birthday: 11/29/1973
Place of Birth: Oshkosh, WI
Profession: Municipal Consultant
Religion: Congregationalist

Notes: This district also stays the same, which means it’s a pretty safe Democratic seat and I only see this district getting more Democratic as time goes on. 

Senate District 19
()
Counties: Outagamie and Winnebago
Three Largest Entities: Appleton, Neenah and Menasha     
PVI: D+2.5
Incumbent Party: R/RRD
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 45,794 (49.58%)/ Romney 45,782 (49.57%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 49,161 (54.31%)/ McCain 39,677 (43.83%)
Swing: 10.48% Republican
Trend: 3.51% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+2.5/R+3

Senator: Michael Ellis
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Unopposed in 2010 under the old lines 
Obama Comparison: 2014 Election
Serving Since: 1982
Hometown: Neenah
Prior Offices: Neenah City Council and Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh
Birthday: 2/21/1941
Place of Birth: Neenah, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: Roman Catholic

Notes: This district stays pretty much the same, only getting a bit smaller. This is a district that could become competitive in future elections once Senator Ellis retires and it is a district that Democrats would need to win in order to possibly get the majority back in the Senate.

Assembly District 55
()
Counties: Outagamie and Winnebago
PVI: R+5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,931 (47.18%)/ Romney 16,118 (50.93%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,151 (52.14%)/ McCain 14,187 (45.80%)
Swing: 10.09% Republican
Trend: 3.12% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+4.5/D+1

Representative: Dean Kaufert
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Dean Kaufert 19,142 (63%%)/ Jim Crail 10,202 (33.6)
Obama Comparison: +13.63%
Serving Since: 1991
Hometown: Neenah
Prior Offices: Neenah City Council
Education: N/A
Birthday: 5/23/1957
Place of Birth: Outagamie County
Profession: Trophy and Awards Store Owner
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district goes from being a very competitive district to a district that it would be hard to see a Democrat win, other then in a wave year. This was done by adding the City of Menasha to the Appleton centric 57th District and giving this district more rural areas from the 56th. This is still a district that Democrats need to compete for in order to get close in the Assembly, but will have to wait until Dean Kaufert moves on.

Assembly District 56
()
Counties: Outagamie and Winnebago 
PVI: R+8
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,330 (44.33%)/ Romney 18,537 (57.34%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,980 (48.89%)/ McCain 15,240 (49.74%)
Swing: 12.16% Republican
Trend: 5.19% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+8/R+10

Representative: David Murphy
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Dave Murphy 18,306 (58.3%)/ Richard Schoenbohm 13,071 (41.6%) 
Obama Comparison: +2.71
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Greenville
Prior Offices: None
Education:  N/A
Birthday: 11/26/1954
Place of Birth: Appleton, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: Lutheran

Notes: This district gets two points more Democratic, this was done by giving more rural areas to 55th District and taking in some of the Northern parts of Appleton. Means nothing, as this district is still very Republican. 

Assembly District 57
()
Counties: Outagamie and Winnebago
PVI: D+6
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 15,533 (58.23%)/ Romney 11,127 (39.19%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 18,020 (62.37%)/ McCain 10,240 (35.44%)
Swing: 7.89% Republican
Trend: 0.92% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+6/D+3

Representative: Penny Bernard Schaber
()
Party: Democratic
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2008
Hometown: Appleton, WI
Prior Offices: None
Education: Southern Illinois University
Birthday: 11/5/1953
Place of Birth: Mundelein, IL
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district gets 3 points more Democratic by adding the City of Menasha. This is very safe Democratic seat for Northeast Wisconsin.   

Senate District 20
()
Counties: Calumet, Fond du Lac, Ozaukee, Sheboygan and Washington 
Three Largest Entities: West Bend, Cedarburg and Port Washington   
PVI: R+20
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 33,919 (31.87%)/ Romney 71,420 (67.10%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 35,410 (37.15%)/ McCain 58,631 (61.51%)
Swing: 10.87% Republican
Trend: 3.90% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+19.5/R+21

Senator: Glenn Grothman
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Glen Grothman 66,882 (68.6%)/ Tanya Lohr 30,504 (31.3%
Obama Comparison: +0.57%
Serving Since: 2005
Hometown: West Bend
Prior Offices: Wisconsin Sate Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Madison (J.D.)
Birthday: 7/3/1955
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district went from being shaped more like a box to vertical rectangle. It gets a point and a half less Democratic, but it is still the most Republican district in the state. 

Assembly District 58
()
Counties: Washington
PVI: R+21
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 9,703 (30.42%)/ Romney 21,952 (68.82%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 11,302 (36.88%)/ McCain 18,968 (61.89%)
Swing: 13.39% Republican
Trend: 6.42% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+21/R+20

Representative: Patricia Strachota
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2005
Hometown: West Bend, WI
Prior Offices: Washington County Board of Supervisors
Education: St. Mary’s College 
Birthday: 6/29/1955
Place of Birth: Cuyahoga County, OH
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district stays relatively the same other then becoming a more vertical district rather then the previous horizontal shape. Is a very Republican seat.

Assembly District 59
()
Counties: Calumet, Fond du Lac, Sheboygan and Washington
PVI: R+19
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 12,900 (33.13%)/ Romney 25,561 (65.65%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 11,622 (38.17%)/ McCain 18,337 (60.23%)
Swing: 10.46% Republican
Trend: 3.49% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+24/R+19.5ß

Representative: Daniel LeMahieu
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Uncontested 
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: Cascade
Prior Offices: Sheboygan County Board
Education: N/A
Birthday: 11/5/1946
Place of Birth: Sheboygan, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district takes a more vertical shape as it goes through the county boundary line between Calumet/Fond du Lac and Sheboygan. No change in the partisan nature as it is a very safe Republican seat.

Assembly District 60
()
Counties: Ozaukee and Washington
PVI: R+20.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 11,316 (31.78%)/ Romney 23,907 (67.14%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 12,386 (36.51%)/ McCain 21,129 (62.28%)
Swing: 9.59% Republican
Trend: 2.62% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+19.5/R+18

Representative: Duey Strobel
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Duey Strobel 23,905 (71.1%)/ Perry Duman 9,682 (28.8%) 
Obama Comparison: +2.99%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Saukville
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin Madison (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Madison (M.S.)
Birthday: 9/1/1959
Place of Birth: Cedarburg, WI
Profession: Real Estate
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district becomes more compact and it moves out of Village of Grafton. Actually gets more Republican, if that was possible. 

Senate District 21
()
Counties: Kenosha and Racine
Three Largest Entities: Caledonia, Mount Pleasant and Pleasant Prairie     
PVI: R+9
Incumbent Party: D/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 41,116 (44.06%)/ Romney 51,248 (54.92%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 43,987 (47.45%)/ McCain 47,460 (51.20%)
Swing: 7.11% Republican
Trend: 0.14% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+9/R+1.5

Senator: John Lehman
()
Party: Democratic
Last Election: John Lehman 36,351 (50.5%)/ Van Wanggaard (49.4%) (2012-Recall) 
Obama Comparison: 2014 Election
Serving Since: 2012 (Also prior from 2007-2010)
Hometown: Racine
Prior Offices: Racine City Council and Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: Luther College (Bachelors)/ Carthage College (M.A.)
Birthday: 8/2/1945
Place of Birth: Rhinelander, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district radically changed with redistrict. The former district was previously centered in Racine County and was a great competitive district. Now the district takes in all of the rural and most of the suburban areas of Kenosha and Racine Counties. This has made the district unwinnable for the Democrats. Senator John Lehman, who narrowly won a recall race in 2012, would not be competitive in this district. Some brilliant gerrymandering here!

Assembly District 61
()
Counties: Kenosha
PVI: R+8
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,611 (44.33%)/ Romney 16,727 (54.48%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,215 (47.45%)/ McCain 47,460 (51.20%)
Swing: 8.47% Republican
Trend: 1.50% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+13/D+9

Representative: Samantha Kerkman
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Samantha Kerkman 16,589 (55.7%)/ John Steinbrink 13,186 (44.3%)
Obama Comparison: +0.08%
Serving Since: 2001
Hometown: Powers Lake
Prior Offices: N/A
Education: University of Wisconsin-Whitewater
Birthday: 3/6/1974
Place of Birth: Burlington, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: Roman Catholic

Notes: This district is a mix of Assembly district 65 and 66. As the rural and suburban Kenosha County district, it is a very safe Republican district. It was an incumbent on incumbent race as John Steinbrink decided to go down fighting.

Assembly District 62
()
Counties: Racine 
PVI: R+7.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 15,593 (45.67%)/ Romney 18,228 (53.39%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,210 (48.09%)/ McCain 17,066 (50.63%
Swing: 5.18% Republican
Trend: 1.79% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+8/D+4

Representative: Thomas Weatherston
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Thomas Weatherston 17,045 (53.1%)/ Melissa Lemke 15,054 (46.9%)
Obama Comparison: -1.18%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Racine
Prior Offices: Caledonia Village Council
Education: State University of New York at Buffalo
Birthday: 2/15/1950
Place of Birth: Buffalo, NY
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district is the northern Racine County rural and suburban district. It does also include some northwestern parts of the city of Racine. Even though there are some strong Democratic areas in the eastern part of the district, this is also a safe Republican seat.

Assembly District 63
()
Counties: Kenosha
PVI: R+10.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 11,912 (41.84%)/ Romney 16,293 (57.23%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 13,562 (45.81%)/ McCain 15,685 (52.98%)
Swing: 8.22% Republican
Trend: 1.25% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+14/D+10.5

Representative: Robin Vos
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Robin Vos 17,704 (58.3%)/ Kelley Albrecht 12,637 (41.6%)
Obama Comparison: +0.22%
Serving Since: 2005
Hometown: Burlington
Prior Offices: Racine County Board
Education: University of Wisconsin-Whitewater
Birthday: 8/5/1968
Place of Birth: Burlington, WI
Profession: Owner of Several Small Businesses
Religion: Roman Catholic

Notes: This district is the southern Racine rural and suburban district. Again there are some areas of Democratic strength in the eastern part of the district, but this is a very strong Republican district. Robin Vos is the Speaker of the Assembly.

Senate District 22
()
Counties: Kenosha and Racine
Three Largest Entities: Kenosha, Racine and Somers
PVI: D+12
Incumbent Party: D/DDD
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 51,841 (66.54%)/ Romney 25,147 (32.28%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 52,078 (66.72%)/ McCain 24,718 (31.67%)
Swing: 0.79% Republican
Trend: 6.18% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+11/D+0

Representative: Robert Wirch
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Robert Wirch 51,177 (69.6%)/ Pam Stevens 22,278 (30.3%)
Obama Comparison: -3.03%
Serving Since: 1997
Hometown: Pleasant Prairie 
Prior Offices: Kenosha County Supervisor and Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Parkside
Birthday: 11/16/1943
Place of Birth: Kenosha, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is the opposite of the previous district as is this is the Kenosha and Racine urban district. This is a very safe Democratic district. This gerrymander move resulted in transforming 1 Likely & 1 Lean Democratic Senate Seats into a Safe Democratic and Safe Democratic Seat. Also on the Assembly level it went from 4 Democratic Seats and 2 Republican Seats to 3 Democratic Seats and 3 Republican Seats. Senator Robert Wirch would have to move into Kenosha proper if he wants to run for reelection in 2014.

Assembly District 64
()
Counties: Kenosha and Racine
PVI: D+5.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 16,827 (58.81%)/ Romney 11,453 (40.03%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,819 (61.29%)/ McCain 10,161 (37.03%)
Swing: 5.48% Republican
Trend: 1.49% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+5/D+11.5

Representative: Peter Barca
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2009 (Also prior from 1984-1992)
Hometown: Kenosha
Prior Offices: United States Congress
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Madison (M.A.)
Birthday: 8/7/1955
Place of Birth: Kenosha, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is the Northwestern Kenosha and Racine connection district. This is a pretty safe Democratic seat. Representative Peter Barca is the Minority Leader in the Assembly.

Assembly District 65
()
Counties: Kenosha
PVI: D+12.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 16,654 (66.92%)/ Romney 7,892 (31.71%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 17,462 (66.89%)/ McCain 8,169 (31.29%)
Swing: 0.39% Republican
Trend: 6.58% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+11/D+1.5

Representative: Tom Ohnstad
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Kenosha
Prior Offices: City of Kenosha Alderman
Education: University of Wisconsin-Parkside
Birthday: 5/21/1952
Place of Birth: Eau Claire, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is the primary Kenosha district. This is a very safe Democratic seat.

Assembly District 66
()
Counties: Kenosha
PVI: 19.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 18,360 (75.21%)/ Romney 5,802 (23.77%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 17,797 (72.60%)/ McCain 6,388 (26.06%)
Swing: 4.90% Democratic
Trend: 11.87% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old):

Representative: Cory Mason
()
Party: Democratic
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2007
Hometown: Racine
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison
Birthday: 1/25/1973
Place of Birth: Racine, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is the primary Racine district. This is a very safe Democratic district.   

Senate District 23
()
Counties: Barron, Chippewa, Clark, Dunn, Eau Claire, Jackson, Marathon, Trempealeau and Wood
Three Largest Entities: Marshfield, Chippewa Falls and Altoona   
PVI: R+4
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 39,587 (47.62%)/ Romney 42,399 (51.00%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 44,478 (53.81%)/ McCain 36,674 (44.37%)
Swing: 12.82% Republican
Trend: 4.85% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+4/R+4.5

Senator: Terry Moulton
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Terry Moulton 39,864 (56.6%)/ Kristen Dexter 30,504 (43.3%) (2012-Recall) 
Obama Comparison: 2014 Eleaction
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Chippewa Falls
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire
Birthday: 8/191946
Place of Birth: Whitefish, MT
Profession: Owner of Archery and Tackle Shop and Fishing Tackle Manufacturer
Religion: N/A

Notes: The main change of this district was it totally pulled out of the city of Eau Claire and it went farther into eastern Eau Claire County. This resulted in this district becoming a point and a half more Republican. The trends in this area of the state are not good for the Democrats and it would probably take a wave for them to take it back. 

Assembly District 67
()
Counties: Barron, Chippewa and Dunn
PVI: R+4
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,876 (48.12%)/ Romney 14,588 (50.59%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 15,170 (52.70%)/ McCain 13,098 (45.50%)
Swing: 9.67% Republican
Trend: 2.70% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+4.5/R+4.5

Representative: Thomas Larson
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Thomas Larson 15,194 (53.%)/ Deb Bieging 13,325 (46.7%) 
Obama Comparison: +1.43%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Colfax
Prior Offices: N/A
Education: N/A
Birthday: 2/11/1948
Place of Birth: Eau Claire, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district only visually changed, as it had to shrink by moving out of Barron County. This district could probably go Democrat in a good year and a good candidate. It is a district they would need in order to win the Assembly back

Assembly District 68
()
Counties: Chippewa, Clark, Eau Claire, Jackson and Trempealeau   
PVI: R+1
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,195 (50.99%)/ Romney 13,260 (47.63%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 15,033 (55.67%)/ McCain 11,526 (42.69%)
Swing: 9.62% Republican
Trend: 2.65% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+1.5/D+3

Representative: Kathleen Bernier
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Kathleen Bernier 13,758 (52.4%)/ Judy Smriga 12,482 (47.5%)
Obama Comparison: +3.46%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Chippewa Falls
Prior Offices: Village of Lake Hallie Trustee
Education: University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire
Birthday: 4/29/1956
Place of Birth: Eau Claire, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is another district that the Democrats would need to win in order to get closer in the Assembly. By moving out of the City of Eau Claire and into Clark County the district did get much more Republican, but Obama still won the district 2012. This district is very similar to the 67th. 

Assembly District 69
()
Counties: Clark, Marathon and Wood
PVI: R+6
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 11,516 (43.53%)/ Romney 14,551 (55.00%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,504 (53.08%)/ McCain 12,274 (44.92%)
Swing: 19.63% Republican
Trend: 12.66% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+5.5/R+6

Representative: Scott Suder
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Scott Suder 15,785 (61.2%)/ Paul Knoff 9,998 (38.7%)
Obama Comparison: +4.79%
Serving Since: 1999
Hometown: Abbotsford
Prior Offices: Abbotsford City Council 
Education: University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire
Birthday: 9/28/1968
Place of Birth: Medford, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district is more Republican then it’s rating. Obama over performed here in 2008. Also Scott Suder is very popular, he did almost 5 points better then Romney and he is the Majority Leader in the Assembly.   

Senate District 24
()
Counties: Adams, Jackson, Monroe, Portage, Waushara and Wood
Three Largest Entities: Stevens Point, Wisconsin Rapids and Sparta   
PVI: D+3
Incumbent Party: D/DDR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 46,654 (51.61%)/ Romney 42,299 (46,79%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 52,254 (58.00%)/ McCain 36,121 (40.09%)
Swing: 13.09% Republican
Trend: 6.12% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+1/D+2

Senator: Julie Lassa 
()
Party: Democratic
Last Election: Julie Lass 48,677 (56.6%)/ Scott Kenneth Noble 37,259 (43.3%)
Obama Comparison: -4.98%
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: Stevens Point
Prior Offices: Dewey Town Board and Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Birthday: 10/21/1970
Place of Birth: Stevens Point, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district saw big changes as it lost the Marshfield area of Wood County and all of Southern Adams County. It its place it gained Sparta and Tomah in Monroe County, parts of Eastern Jackson County and more of Western Waushara. This entire process resulted in the district becoming a point less Democratic. This district should be safe with Lassa as the incumbent, but could be competitive in the future.

Assembly District 70
()
Counties: Jackson, Monroe, Portage and Wood 
PVI: R+3
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,683 (48.43%)/ Romney 14,116 (49.96%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 15,068 (54.77%)/ McCain 11,957 (43.47%)
Swing: 12.83% Republican
Trend: 5.86% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+3/R+0.5

Representative: Amy Sue Vruwink
()
Party: Democratic
Last Election: Amy Sue Vruwink 13,518 (50.2%)/ Nancy VanderMeer 13,374 (49.7%)
Obama Comparison: -1.76%
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: Milladore
Prior Offices: None
Education: Marian University 
Birthday: 5/22/1975
Place of Birth: Wisconsin Rapids, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: Representative Vruwink got screwed in redistricting and yet survived in 2012. I unfortunately don’t see that happening in 2014 with what will probably be depressed turnout. Her old district would have still been difficult, but it would have had areas, like Marshfield, that she was familiar with and the voters there would have been familiar with her. Maybe she’ll be able to put down some roots with the new people in her district, especially in Northern Monroe County, but I would doubt it. 

Assembly District 71
()
Counties: Portage
PVI: D+6.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 18,451 (57.37%)/ Romney 13,155 (40.91%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 22,229 (64.79%)/ McCain 11,395 (33.21%)
Swing: 15.21% Republican
Trend: 8.15% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+8/D+7

Representative: Katrina Shankland
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Katrina Shankland 17,619 (60.8%)/ Patrick Testin 11,279 (38.9%)
Obama Comparison: -3.45%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Stevens Point
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison
Birthday: 8/4/1987
Place of Birth: Wausau, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: The trend for this district between 2008 and 2012 is pretty scary for the Democrats, but Obama still won this district by 17 points in the last election and it is one of few seats north of Madison that Walker lost in his recall race. It is still a very safe Democratic district. District pulled out of Waushara in order to give that to District 72.

Assembly District 72
()
Counties: Adams, Portage, Waushara and Wood
PVI: R+3
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,520 (48.41%)/ Romney 15,028 (50.11%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 15,957 (54.50%)/ McCain 12,769 (43.61%)
Swing: 12.59% Republican
Trend: 5.62% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+2.5/R+0.5

Representative: Scott Krug
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Scott Krug 14,138 (50.2%)/ Justin Pluess 14,029 (49.8%)
Obama Comparison: -1.36%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Nekoosa
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Green Bay
Birthday: 9/16/1975
Place of Birth: Wisconsin Rapids, WI
Profession: Employment Training Specialist
Religion: N/A

Notes: By taking away the Southern Adams County and adding very Republican areas in Waushara County this district got 2 points more Republican through redistricting. This saved Representative Scott Krug as even one more half a point towards the Democrats would have lead to his defeat.   

Senate District 25
()
Counties: Ashland, Barron, Bayfield, Burnett, Douglas, Dunn, Iron, Polk, Price, Sawyer, St. Croix and Vilas
Three Largest Entities: Superior, Rice Lake and Ashland
PVI: D+2.5
Incumbent Party: D/DDD
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 51,637 (55.48%)/ Romney 39,992 (42.97%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 55,409 (56.68%)/ McCain 37,517 (39.73%)
Swing: 6.44% Republican
Trend: 0.53% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+3.5/D+3.5

Senator: Robert Jauch
()
Party: Democratic
Last Election: Robert Jauch 31,437 (51.27%)/ Dane Deutsch 29,854 (48.69%)
Obama Comparison: 2014 Election
Serving Since: 1987
Hometown: Poplar
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: N/A
Birthday: 11/22/1945
Place of Birth: Wheaton, IL
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district takes all of Price County and in return loses most of Sawyer County. The partisan nature of the district doesn’t change and it will remain a safe Democratic seat throughout the decade. The problem for Democrats will be if there loss continual loss in population in this region of the state and this district has to go further into Republican areas.

Assembly District 73
()
Counties: Burnett, Douglas and Washburn
PVI: D+7
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 18,712 (60.84%)/ Romney 11,566 (37.61%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 20,103 (62.48%)/ McCain 11,537 (35.86%)
Swing: 3.39% Republican
Trend: 3.58% Democratic 
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+7/D+7.5

Representative: Nick Milroy
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2009
Hometown: South Range
Prior Offices: Superior City Council
Education: University of Wisconsin-Superior
Birthday: 4/15/1974
Place of Birth: Duluth, MN
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: The only changes to this district were some changes in what townships were included. It is a very safe Democratic seat.

Assembly District 74
()
Counties: Ashland, Bayfield, Douglas, Iron, Price, Sawyer and Vilas 
PVI: D+4.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 19,077 (57.63%)/ Romney 13,505 (40.80%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 19,681 (60.54%)/ McCain 12,300 (37.84%)
Swing: 5.87% Republican
Trend: 1.10% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+6/D+4.5

Representative: Janet Bewley
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Janet Bewley 18,582 (59%)/ John Sendra 12,911 (41%)
Obama Comparison: -1.34%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Ashland
Prior Offices: Ashland City Council
Education: Case Western Reserve (Bachelors)/ University of Maine (M.A.)
Birthday: 11/10/1951
Place of Birth: Plainesville, OH
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: By dropping most of Sawyer County and adding Price County this district became even safer for the Democrats. It also moved into the Lac du Flambea, a safe Democratic Native American Reservation. 

Assembly District 75
()
Counties: Barron, Burnett, Dunn, Polk, St. Croix and Washburn
PVI: R+4.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,848 (47.41%)/ Romney 14,921 (51.08%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 15,445 (52.24%)/ McCain 13,680 (46.27%)
Swing: 9.64% Republican
Trend: 2.67% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+3.5/R+3

Representative: Stephen Smith
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Stephen Smith 14,456 (51%)/ Roger Rivard 13,841 (48.8%)   
Obama Comparison: -3.61%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Shell Lake
Prior Offices: Barron County Board of Supervisors
Education: University of Wisconsin-Superior 
Birthday: 8/31/1951
Place of Birth: Minneapolis, MN
Profession: Home Center Owner
Religion: Roman Catholic

Notes: Stephen Smith defeated Roger “Some Girls Just Rape Easy” Rivard in 2012, but not by as big of a margin as he should have. This is the most likely seat to flip to the other party in 2014 as I don’t see Representative Smith being able to hold a trending Republican seat that is already R+3.5.

Senate District 26
()
Counties: Dane    
Three Largest Entities: Madison and Shorewood Hills
PVI: D+25
Incumbent Party: D/DDD
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 89,760 (78.56%)/ Romney 22,184 (19.42)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 87,600 (80.67%)/ McCain 19,203 (17.68%)
Swing: 3.85% Republican
Trend: 3.12% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+28.5/D+29

Senator: Fred Risser
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 1963
Hometown: Madison
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Oregon (Bachelors)/ University of Oregon (LL.B.)
Birthday: 5/5/1927
Place of Birth: Madison, WI
Profession: Attorney
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is a Madison centric district taking all of the Westside and the Downtown Isthmus areas. It is the safest Democratic district outside of Milwaukee and is the home of Senator Fred Risser who is the longest serving member in the history of the Wisconsin Legislature and currently longest serving legislature in the United States.

Assembly District 76
()
Counties: Dane
PVI: D+27.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 33,815 (81.44%)/ Romney 6,504 (15.66%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 34,256 (84.32%)/ McCain 5,499 (13.54%)
Swing: 5.00% Republican
Trend: 1.97% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+32.5/D+26

Representative: Chris Taylor
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since:  2011
Hometown: Madison
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Pennsylvania (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Madison(J.D.) 
Birthday: 1/13/1968
Place of Birth: Los Angeles, CA
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: The numbers for the Madison Assembly districts got all rearranged, making things very confusing. This is really the area of the old 78th District ad both made up the Isthmus, parts of the University of Wisconsin-Madison campus and the near Eastside. This district shrunk rapidly in redistrict, as it had to shred a good amount of population in Northeast and Southern parts of Madison. Representative Chris Taylor used to represent the 47th district, but here home was moved in here. This was current Congressman Mark Pocan’s district and is an extremely safe Democratic seat.

Assembly District 77
()
Counties: Dane
PVI: D+28
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 29,537 (82.10%)/ 5,819 (16.17%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 28,970 (82.70%)/ 5,531 (15.79%)
Swing: 0.98% Republican
Trend: 5.99% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+31/D+26.5

Representative: Terese Berceau
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 1999
Hometown: Madison
Prior Offices: Dane County Board of Supervisors
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Madison (M.A.) 
Birthday: 8/23/1973
Place of Birth: Green Bay, WI
Profession: Staff for Robert M Lafollette School at University of Wisconsin-Madison, Real Estate and substitute teacher
Religion: N/A

Notes: What they did with the new 77th and 78th Assembly districts is they split the area vertically, instead of horizontally. The 77th becomes the near Westside district with most of Southside of Madison and the 78th becomes the far Westside district. This is an extremely safe Democratic seat.   

Assembly District 78
()
Counties: Dane
PVI: D+18.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 26,408 (71.83%)/ Romney 9,861 (26.82%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 24,249 (73,94%)/ McCain 8,154 (24.86%)
Swing: 4.07% Republican
Trend: 2.90% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+21/D+34

Representative: Brett Hulsey
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Brett Hulsey 22,853 (75.4%)/ Jonathan Debering 7,323  (Green) (24.2%) 
Obama Comparison: -3.61%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Madison
Prior Offices: Dane County Supervisor
Education: Middlebury College (Bachelors)/ University of Oklahoma (M.A.) 
Birthday: 5/28/1959
Place of Birth: Oklahoma City, OK
Profession: Founder-Owner of a Energy and Environmental Consulting Firm
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is the far Westside of Madison district and it did take in a little bit of the old 79th District that went into Madison. There are some rumors right now that Representative Brett Hulsey may leave the Democrats and become an Independent. While this district is less Democratic then the other Madison districts, it would still be a death sentence for the Representative if he made that move.   

You finally got my area! Anyways i seem to recall jauch having a opponent in 2010 so i think that's wrong that he was unopposed. As for smith he will lose for being poorly spoken more than the districts lean  I wager.

I don't know how I missed that he had an opponent.

Senate District 27
()
Counties: Columbia, Dane, Green, Iowa and Sauk
Three Largest Entities: Middleton, Waunakee and Baraboo   
PVI: D+8.5
Incumbent Party: D/DDD
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 63,466 (62.07%)/ Romney 37,823 (36.99%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 61,049 (64.26%)/ McCain 32,847 (34.58%)
Swing: 4.60% Republican
Trend: 2.37% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+9.5/D=12.5

Senator: Jon Erpenbach
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Jon Erpenbach 51,742 (61.84%)/ Kurt Schlicht 31,909 (38.13%) (2010 – Old Lines) 
Obama Comparison: 2014 Election
Serving Since: 1999
Hometown: Middleton
Prior Offices: None
Education: N/A
Birthday: 1/28/1961
Place of Birth: Middleton, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district changed in a big way by moving to the north intro Western Columbia County and Eastern Sauk County from Green County. This was done in order to get Representative Fred Clark out of the 14th Senate District. As a result the district moved 3 points towards the Republicans, but it still has enough Westside Madison suburbs to make it a very safe Democratic seat.

Assembly District 79
()
Counties: Dane
PVI: D+7.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 22,538 (60.82%)/ Romney 14,174 (38.25%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 21,230 (63.67%)/ McCain 11,798 (35.38%
Swing: 5.72% Republican
Trend: 1.25% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+9.5/D+14

Representative: Dianne Hesselbein
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Middleton
Prior Offices: Dane County Board of Supervisors
Education: University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh (Bachelors)/ Edgewood College (M.A.)
Birthday: 3/10/1971
Place of Birth: Madison, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district has gone from being a strip that went from the Western Madison suburbs to the western part of the county, to a district that hugs the City of Madison. It goes from the northeast township of Burke, all the way around to the western parts of the Town of Verona. The districts moves almost 5 points to the Republicans as it lost many solid Democratic areas, but it is still a very safe Democratic seat. 

Assembly District 80
()
Counties: Dane, Green and Iowa
PVI: D+11
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 22,359 (64.03%)/ Romney 12,268 (35.13%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 22,157 (66.89%)/ McCain 10,571 (31.91%)
Swing: 6.08% Republican
Trend: 0.89% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+12/D+8.5

Representative: Sondy Pope-Roberts
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Sondy Pope-Roberts 20,864 (63.9%)/ Tom Lamberson 11,771 (36%)
Obama Comparison: +0.18%
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: Cross Plaines
Prior Offices: None
Education: N/A
Birthday: 4/27/1950
Place of Birth: Madison, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district gets 3.5 points more Democratic as it moves out of Southern Green County and into friendly Democratic areas like Southeastern Iowa County, Verona and Fitchburg. This is a safe Democratic seat.

Assembly District 81
()
Counties: Columbia, Dane, Iowa and Sauk
PVI: D+7
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 18,569 (61.34%)/ Romney 11,381 (37.59%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 17,896 (61.89%)/ McCain 10,627 (36.75%)
Swing: 1.39% Republican
Trend: 5.5*% Democratic 
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+6/D+14

Representative: Fred Clark
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Fred Clark 17,829 (61.8%)/ Scott Frostman 10,995 (38.1%)
Obama Comparison: -0.49%
Serving Since: 2009
Hometown: Sauk City
Prior Offices: 
Education:  Michigan State University (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Madison (M.S.)
Birthday: 5/14/1954
Place of Birth: Ann Arbor, MI
Profession: Forester and Small Business Owner
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district is essential a majority of the old 42nd and parts of the 47th, 51st and the old 81st. The point was to put Fred Clark’s home turf out of the 14th Senate District so it would have been harder for him to hold that district had he won the 2011 recall race.

Senate District 28
()
Counties: Milwaukee, Racine, Walworth and Waukesha
Three Largest Entities: Franklin, Muskego and Greenfield   
PVI: R+14.5
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 39,881 (38.48%)/ Romney 62,638 (60.44%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 41,54 (41.54%)/ McCain 57,077 (57.27%)
Swing: 6.23% Republican
Trend: 0.71% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+14/R+16.5

Senator: Mary Lazich
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Mary Lazich 60,854 (63.4%)/ Jim Ward 35,053 (36.5%)
Obama Comparison: +1.97%
Serving Since: 1999
Hometown: New Berlin
Prior Offices: New Berlin City Council, Waukesha County Board and Wisconsin State Senate
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee 
Birthday: 10/3/1952
Place of Birth: Loyal, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes:  This Southwest Milwaukee suburbs district shrank in size due to redistricting. It moved out of the Northern half of New Berlin and out of Mukwonago. It got a couple points less Republican, but is still very safe for the GOP.

Assembly District 82
()
Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: R+10.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,210 (42.72%)/ Romney 18,600 (55.92%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,735 (45.51%)/ McCain 17245 (53.26%)
Swing: 5.45% Republican
Trend: 1.49% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+10/R+11.5

Representative: Jeff Stone
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Jeff Stone 18,032 (60.2%)/ Kathleen Wied-Vincent 11,896 (39.7%)
Obama Comparison: +3.03%
Serving Since: 1999
Hometown: Greendale
Prior Offices: Greenfield City Council
Education: Washburn University
Birthday: 1/28/1961
Place of Birth: Topeka, KS
Profession: Printing Busniess Owner
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district stayed pretty much the same in redistricting. This is the most Republican district in Milwaukee County.

Assembly District 83
()
Counties: Milwaukee, Racine, Walworth and Waukesha 
PVI: R+21.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 11,304 (31.09%)/ Romney 24,734 (68.02%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 12,336 (35.42%)/ McCain 22,126 (63.53%)
Swing: 8.82% Republican
Trend: 1.88% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+20/R+21

Representative: David Craig
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: David Craig 23,034 (69.7%)/ James Brownlow 9,967 (30.2%)
Obama Comparison: +0.91%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Big Bend
Prior Offices: Village of Big Bend Trustee
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Birthday: 3/16/1979
Place of Birth: 3/16/1979
Profession: Real Estate Agent
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district also stayed pretty much the same with the differences being the loss of Mukwonago and the addition of Hales Corners. This is a very safe Republican district.

Assembly District 84
()
Counties: Milwaukee and Waukesha
PVI: R+11.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,367 (42.23%)/ Romney 19,304 (56.75%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,317 (44.17%)/ McCain 17,678 (54.54%)
Swing: 1.94% Republican
Trend: 5.00% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+11/R+16.5

Representative: Mike Kuglitsch
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Mike Kuglitsch 18,379 (62.7%)/ Jesse Roelke 10,882 (37.1%)
Obama Comparison: +5.12%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: New Berlin
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Whitewater
Birthday: 2/3/1960
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Business Consultant
Religion: N/A

Notes: It is rather unfortunate that they had to split up the City of New Berlin, as the old 84th was a really clean district with all the municipalities intact. Regardless, this is a very safe Republican district.

Senate District 29
()
Counties: Clark, Marathon, Rusk, Sawyer, Taylor and Wood
Three Largest Entities:
PVI: Wausau, Weston and Rothschild     
Incumbent Party: R/DRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 41,526 (46.81%)/ Romney 46,095 (51.96%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 46,750 (53.31%)/ McCain 39,342 (44.86%)
Swing: 13.60% Republican
Trend: 6.66% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+4/R+3.5

Senator: Jerry Petrowski
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Jerry Petrowski 44,107 (61.3%)/ Donna Seidel 27,744 (38.6%) (2012 Recall/Special Election)
Obama Comparison: 2014 Election
Serving Since: 2012
Hometown: Marathon
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Senate
Education: N/A
Birthday: 6/16/1950
Place of Birth: Wausau, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: I have never been a fan of this district, whether it is in this new Republican drawn map or the court drawn map for the last decade. It is the least compact district in either map and it takes the Wausau metro area and then goes into completely dissimilar areas in the Northwest Part of the state. The changes in the district made it a half a point, which will make it even harder for Democrats to get the district back after losing it in 2010. 

Assembly District 85
()
Counties: Marathon
PVI: D+0
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 15,023 (52.11)/ Romney 13,513 (46.84%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,309 (57.32%)/ McCain 11,625 (40.85%)
Swing: 11.20% Republican
Trend: 4.26% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+0.5/R+0

Representative: Mandy Wright 
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Mandy Wright 13,930 (49.7%)/ Patrick Snyder 13,025 (46.5%)
Obama Comparison: +2.41%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Wausau
Prior Offices: None
Education: St. Olaf
Birthday: 6/7/1977
Place of Birth: Wausau, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district actually got a half of point more Democratic through redistricting and it looks like that actually saved the Democrats in 2012. This area of the state is really trending away fast from Democrats and it wouldn’t shock me if Representative Wright loses in 2014.

Assembly District 86
()
Counties: Marathon and Wood
PVI: R+7
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,077 (43.85%)/ 17,617 (54.89%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 15,691 (51.09%)/ 14,488 (47.17%0
Swing: 14.96% Republican
Trend: 8.02% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+6.5/R+5.5

Representative: John Spiros
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: John Spiros 17,175 (55.6%)/ Dennis Halkoski 13,664 (44.2%) 
Obama Comparison: -0.39%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Marshfield
Prior Offices: Marshfield City Council
Education: MTCC (A.A.S.)
Birthday: 8/28/1961
Place of Birth: Akron, OH
Profession: Vice President for Safety and Claims Management for a Transport Company
Religion: N/A

Notes: Representative Spiros ran and lost against Amy Sue Vruwink in the 2010 elections. This trend of this district is awful for the Democrats and I see no way how they could get this district back.

Assembly District 87
()
Counties: Clark, Marathon, Rusk, Sawyer and Taylor
PVI: R+6.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 12,417 (44.71%)/ 14,963 (53.87%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,314 (51.63%)/ 12,875 (46.44%)
Swing: 14.35%
Trend: 7.41%
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+5.5/R+4.5

Representative: Mary Williams
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Mary Williams 15,680 (58.5%)/ Elizabeth Riley 11,100 (41.4%)
Obama Comparison: +3.28%
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: Medford
Prior Offices: Taylor County Board
Education: University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Birthday: 7/8/1949
Place of Birth: Phillips, WI
Profession: Restaurant Owner
Religion: N/A

Notes: Like all the Assembly Districts in the 29th, the recent trends have been awful for the Democrats. This district switched out Price County for most of Sawyer County This is a very safe Republican seat. 

Senate District 30
()
Counties: Brown, Marinette and Oconto
Three Largest Entities: Green Bay, Bellevue and Marinette     
PVI: R+0.5
Incumbent Party: D/RRD
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 42,461 (51.63%)/ Romney 38,733 (47.10%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 45,200 (56.58%)/ McCain 33,654 (42.13%)
Swing: 9.92% Republican
Trend: 2.95% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+1/R+1

Senator: Dave Hansen
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Dave Hansen 42,949 (54.2%)/ John Macco 36,178 (45.7%)
Obama Comparison: -2.60%
Serving Since: 2001
Hometown: Green Bay
Prior Offices: Brown County Board
Education: University of Wisconsin-Green Bay
Birthday: 12/18/1947
Place of Birth: Green Bay, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district did not change much, just a few switches in the townships that make up the district. As long as Dave Hansen is here this district will be safe for the Democrats, but once he retires it could be competitive.

Assembly District 88
()
Counties: Brown
PVI: R+3.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,960 (48.71%)/ Romney 15,436 (50.26%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 15,633 (53.76%)/ McCain 13,147 (45.21%)
Swing: 10.10% Republican
Trend: 3.13% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+3.5/R+4.5

Representative: John Klenke
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: John Klenke 14,445 (52.4%)/ Ward Bacon 13,085 (47.5%)
Obama Comparison: +1.24%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Green Bay
Prior Offices: None
Education: Bachelors and M.A. (No School Listed)
Birthday: 4/25/1958
Place of Birth: Green Bay, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: Roman Catholic

Notes: Too much rural and suburban areas in this district for the Democrats. Could go to the Democrats in a good year, but they would have to preform well in Green Bay and De Pere. 

Assembly District 89
()
Counties: Brown, Marinette and Oconto
PVI: R+5.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,484 (45.96%)/ Romney 15,520 (52.90%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,673 (52.14%)/ McCain 13,098 (46.55%)
Swing: 12.53% Republican
Trend: 5.56% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+5.5/R+5.5

Representative: John Nygren
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: John Nygren 16,081 (59.1%)/ Joe Reinhard 11,129 (40.9%)
Obama Comparison: +5.09%
Serving Since: 2007
Hometown: Marinette
Prior Offices: None
Education: N/A
Birthday: 2/27/1964
Place of Birth: Marinette, WI
Profession: Insurance and Financial Representative
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district takes all of the Eastern Green Bay shoreline.  There is too much of the Green Bay suburbs in the southern part of this district for it to be competitive.

Assembly District 90
()
Counties: Brown
PVI: D+10
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,017 (63.19%)/ 7,777 (35.06%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,894 (65.70%)/ 7,409 (32.68%)
Swing: 4.89% Republican
Trend: 2.08% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+8.5/R+0.5

Representative: Eric Genrich
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Eric Genrich 11,353 (60.2%)/ David Vanderleest 7,432 (39.4%) 
Obama Comparison: 2.98%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Green Bay
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin –Madison (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (MLIS)
Birthday: 10/8/1979
Place of Birth: Green Bay, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district is a Green Bay Democratic vote sink. Democrats even won this district by double digits in 2010.

Senate District 31
()
Counties: Buffalo, Chippewa, Dunn, Eau Claire, Jackson, Pepin, Pierce, Trempealeau and St. Croix
Three Largest Entities: Eau Claire, Prescott and Black River Falls   
PVI: D+2
Incumbent Party: D/DDR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 49,805 (54.38%)/ Romney 40,408 (44.12%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 53,386 (58.85%)/ McCain 35,786 (39.45%)
Swing: 11.00% Republican
Trend: 4.06% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+2.5/D+0.5

Senator: Kathleen Vinehout
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Kathleen Vinehout 30,314 (50.27%)/ Ed Thompson 29,9911 (49.61%)
Obama Comparison: 2014 Election
Serving Since: 2007
Hometown: Alma
Prior Offices: None
Education: Southern Illinois University (Bachelors)/ St. Louis University (M.P.H.)/ St. Louis University (Ph.D.)
Birthday: 6/16/1958
Place of Birth: Albany, NY
Profession: Organic Farmer
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district got 2 points more Democrat as it lost all of Monroe County and added all of the City of Eau Claire. This should be a solid Democratic seat moving forward. 

Assembly District 91
()
Counties: Chippewa and Eau Claire
PVI:D+8
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 19,110 (60.47%)/ Romney 11,877 (37.59%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 20,322 (64.25%)/ McCain 10,745 (33.97%
Swing: 7.40% Republican
Trend: 0.46% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+8.5/D+1

Representative: Dana Wachs
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Eau Claire
Prior Offices: Eau Claire City Council
Education: Marquette University (Bachelors)/ Valparaiso University (J.D.)   
Birthday: 8/25/1957
Place of Birth: Eau Claire, WI
Profession: Attorney
Religion: N/A

Notes: One positive change in this set of maps is Eau Claire has been unified into one assembly district. While that makes this more of a Democratic vote sink, it makes more sense when thinking of community of interests.

Assembly District 92
()
Counties: Buffalo, Jackson and Trempealeau
PVI: D+3.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 15,056 (55.80%)/ Romney 11,579 (42.91%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,349 (60.68%)/ McCain 10,187 (37.81%)
Swing: 9.98% Republican
Trend: 3.04% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+2.5/R+3

Representative: Chis Danou
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2009
Hometown: Trempealeau
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin – Madison (Bachelors)/ American University (M.A.)/ University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point (M.S.)
Birthday: 1967
Place of Birth: Bloomington, IL
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is a central Driftless Area district and is pretty safe for the Democrats. Also Chris Danou is very popular in this area and would have outrun Obama here if he had a Republican challenger.

Assembly District 93
()
Counties: Buffalo, Dunn, Pepin, Pierce and St. Croix 
PVI: R+4
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,906 (47.02%)/ 16,391 (51.70%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,715 (52.01%)/ 14,854 (46.22%0
Swing: 10.47% Republican
Trend: 3.53% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+4/D+4

Representative: Warren Petryk
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Warren Petryk 15,612 (50.8%)/ Jeff Smith 15,114 (49.2%) 
Obama Comparison: -2.14%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Eleva
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire 
Birthday: 1/24/1955
Place of Birth: Eau Claire, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is a frustrating district for the Democrats. The Eastern part of this district has some friendly areas, but the Western part in Pierce County is trending pretty hard to the Republicans, as it becomes more of a Twin Cities suburban area.  It is hard to see the Democrats winning in this district in the future.

Senate District 32
()
Counties: Crawford, La Crosse, Monroe and Vernon 
Three Largest Entities: La Crosse, Onalaska and Holmen   
PVI: D+4.5
Incumbent Party: D/DDR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 51,687 (57.12%)/ Romney 37,339 (41.26%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 54,503 (60.51%)/ McCain 34,123 (37.88%)
Swing: 6.77% Republican
Trend: 0.20% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+3.5/D+3.5

Senator: Jennifer Shilling
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Jennifer Shilling 
Obama Comparison: -1.16%
Serving Since: 2011 
Hometown: La Crosse
Prior Offices: La Crosse County Board and Wisconsin State Senate
Education: University of Wisconsin-La Crosse
Birthday: 7/4/1969
Place of Birth: Oshkosh, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: No major changes to this district as it keeps the same general shape. Now that a Democrat finally won this seat, I don’t see how a Republican would ever win it back outside of a wave year.

Assembly District 94
()
Counties: La Crosse
PVI: R+1.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 16,430 (51.45%)/ 15,086 (47.24%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 17,488 (54.84%)/ 13,973 (43.81%)
Swing: 6.82% Republican
Trend: 0.15% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+3/R+2

Representative: Steve Doyle
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Steve Doyle 18,566 (60.6%)/ Bruce Evers 12,068 (39.4%)
Obama Comparison: -9.14%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Onalaska
Prior Offices: La Crosse County Board
Education: University of Wisconsin-La Crosse (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Madison (J.D.)
Birthday: 5/21/1958
Place of Birth: La Crosse, WI
Profession: Attorney
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district is all of La Crosse County, minus the actual City of La Crosse. Normally this would be a swing seat, but Steve Doyle is very popular here and I could only see him losing in a wave.     

Assembly District 95
()
Counties: La Crosse
PVI: D+11
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 20,263 (64.27%)/ Romney 10,665 (33.83%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 21,036 (67.15%)/ McCain 9,728 (31.05%)
Swing: 5.70% Republican
Trend: 1.27% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+11/D+11

Representative: Jill Billings
()
Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: La Crosse
Prior Offices: La Crosse County Board
Education: Augsburg College
Birthday: 1/19/1962
Place of Birth: Rochester, MN
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is the City of La Crosse and it’s a very safe Democratic seat. Senator Jennifer Shilling was a Representative here before becoming the Democratic challenger in the 2011 recall.

Assembly District 96
()
Counties: Crawford, Monroe and Vernon
PVI: D+3
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,994 (55.47%)/ Romney 11,588 (42.87%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,079 (59.44%)/ McCain 10,503 (38.83%)
Swing: 8.01% Republican
Trend: 1.04% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+2.5/D+3.5

Representative: Lee Nerison
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Lee Nerison 15,344 (59.5%)/ Tom Johnson 10,426 (40.4%)
Obama Comparison: +15.03%
Serving Since: 2005
Hometown: Westby
Prior Offices: Vernon County Board
Education: N/A
Birthday: 7/31/1952
Place of Birth: La Crosse, WI
Profession: Farmer
Religion: Christian

Notes: This is a very frustrating district for the Democrats. The political nature of this district is very similar to the areas in the 17th Senate District. Great Democratic numbers on the national level, but very Republican on the local level. I only see the Democrats winning this district in a wave year or if Representative Nerison retires.

Senate District 33
()
Counties: Waukesha 
Three Largest Entities: Waukesha, Pewaukee and Sussex   
PVI: R+19.5
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 33,951 (33.06%)/ Romney 67,687 (65.92%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 37,527 (37.38%)/ McCain 61,850 (61.60%)
Swing: 8.64% Republican
Trend: 1.67% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+19/R+19

Senator: Paul Farrow
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Paul Farrow 22,665 (70.4%)/ Eric Prudent 9,503 (29.5%) (2012 Special Election) 
Obama Comparison: 2014 Election
Serving Since: 2012
Hometown: Pewaukee
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: Carroll College
Birthday: 7/17/1964
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Self-Employed
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district got much more compact as it pulled out of Washington County and took in a lot of parts that was previously in 11th Senate District. This is a very safe Republican Milwaukee suburban district, but its also pretty compact so that’s good.

Assembly District 97
()
Counties Waukesha
PVI: R+13
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 12,577 (39.82%)/ Romney 18,582 (58.82%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 13,608 (43.16%)/ McCain 17,555 (55.68%)
Swing: 6.49% Republican
Trend: 0.48% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+13.5/R+11

Representative: Bill Kramer
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Bill Kramer 18,399 (64.6%)/ Marga Krumins 10,051 (35.3%)   
Obama Comparison: +4.53%
Serving Since: 2007
Hometown: Waukesha
Prior Offices: Waukesha County Board
Education: University of Wisconsin-Whitewater (Bachelors)/ Duke University (J.D.)
Birthday: 1/21/1965
Place of Birth: Waukesha, WI
Profession: Financial Planner, Attorney and CPA 
Religion: Roman Catholic

Notes: This district takes the southern parts of the city of Waukesha and some rural parts to its southwest. This is a very Republican seat.   

Assembly District 98
()
Counties: Waukesha
PVI: R+18.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 11,636 (33.65%)/ Romney 22,608 (65.38%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 12,163 (38.31%)/ McCain 19,272 (60.70%)
Swing: 9.34% Republican
Trend: 2.37% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+18.5/R+21

Representative: Adam Neylon
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Unopposed (Special Election)
Obama Comparison: Unopposed
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Pewaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: Carroll University 
Birthday: 12/30/1984
Place of Birth: Elgin, IL
Profession: Small Busniess Owner
Religion: N/A

Notes: This seat takes up the northern parts of the city of Waukesha along with Pewaukee and Sussex. This is also a very Republican seat.

Assembly District 99
()
Counties: Waukesha
PVI: R+25.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 9,738 (26.66%)/ 26,497 (72.55%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 11,756 (31.66%)/ 25,023 (67.39%)
Swing: 10.16% Republican
Trend: 3.19% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+24/R+23.5

Representative: Chris Kapenga
()
Party: Republican
Last Election: Chris Kapenga 26,314 (76.3%)/ Thomas Hibbard 8,166 (23.7%)
Obama Comparison: +2.99%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Delafield
Prior Offices: None
Education: Holland Christian and Calvin College
Birthday: 2/19/1972
Place of Birth: Zeeland, MI
Profession: Busniess Owner
Religion: Evangelical Christian 

Notes: This takes up the area directly west of the city of Waukesha. Takes in the areas that make up the Arrowhead and Kettle Moraine School Districts.

Here is the State Legislature ranked from the most Democratic seat to the most Republican seat. All of the PVI numbers are based on the state average, which is 54.52% Democratic, rather then the national average. I would argue that it is definitely possible for the Democrats to take back the Senate, but it would require a great year and probably a few open seats.   

()

Outside of Milwaukee, Wisconsin is very white. Also I'd guess that Senate District 3 will be plurality Hispanic by the end of the decade.
()

Here is the State Assembly ranked from the most Democratic seat to the most Republican seat. All of the PVI numbers are based on the state average, which is 54.52% Democratic, rather then the national average. The Assembly is almost impossible for the Dems to get back, baring a huge wave or some crazy unexpected trends.
()

Again this shows the whiteness of Wisconsin. 6 African American majority districts, 1 Hispanic majority district and 1 Hispanic plurality district, all in Milwaukee. District 66 could become only white plurality by the end of the decade as the district takes up most of Downtown Racine.   
()

Any questions?

If we wanted to have the national average, we have to add 4.52 point of %?

Excellent job Gass

You would subtract 2.58% to the Republican districts and add 2.58% to the Democratic districts.

Thank you Gass! So the wisconsin senate can become a dem majority in a democratic year.

Has Scott Walker recovered?

It is possible, but it would be difficult and we could only have majority at best by one seat. Walker has been recovered since the recalls. I don't think its impossible that he could lose, it is just extremely unlikely.

Good news!

http://www.postcrescent.com/viewart/U0/20130723/APC010403/307230196/Bernard-Schaber-will-challenge-Ellis-state-Senate (http://www.postcrescent.com/viewart/U0/20130723/APC010403/307230196/Bernard-Schaber-will-challenge-Ellis-state-Senate)

This is the best candidate that the Democrats could put forward in Senate District 19. I would still say that Senator Ellis is the favorite, but this development could make it closer. 

From what I've been hearing Ron Johnson is one of the weakest 2010 'Pubs, even weaker than Mark Kirk. So how weak is he exactly, and how likely is it that he'll win reelection?

It will depend on who runs against him. If Feingold wants the seat back, I think Johnson would be in trouble. Also I think Ron Kind could be competitive.

It's looking like Madison School Board member Mary Burke is the favorite to become the Democratic nominee for governor. Her main claim to fame is that she is the heir to the Trek Bicycle Company which is located in Waterloo, WI. She would be able to self fund, which could be critical against Walker.   

http://www.wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=304068 (http://www.wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=304068)

Defeating Walker would be hmmmm awesome :). He will probably be totally far to right if reelected in order to align himself with tea party...

Using a state average PVI is deceptive.  Wisconsin is about D+3 when compared to the national average, meaning that by using your system of state PVI's, an R+1 district is actually going to be Dem tilting when looking at the big picture.  I would suggest switching to using national averages, rather than Wisconsin statewide averages for your PVI's.

This isn't Congressional, but AG J.B Van Hollen isn't running. (http://fox6now.com/2013/10/07/attorney-general-j-b-van-hollen-will-not-seek-re-election/)

Mary Burke also formally announces that she'll be running for governor!

http://www.wqow.com/story/23624154/businesswoman-mary-burke-enters-governors-race (http://www.wqow.com/story/23624154/businesswoman-mary-burke-enters-governors-race)

My state senator is retiring, despite a poor performance by him in 2010 I don't think this is much of a GOP pickup opportunity. Did walker even win it?

http://www.northlandsnewscenter.com/news/nw-wisconsin/Wis-Senator-Bob-Jauch-retiring-227075001.html

I think Barrett won it both times. Ashland, Bayfield and Douglas are just too Dem for the other areas of the district to overcome.

http://host.madison.com/news/state-and-regional/democrat-wittwer-to-run-for-schultz-s-senate-seat/article_98151985-842f-53b6-81a2-f7613176e780.html (http://host.madison.com/news/state-and-regional/democrat-wittwer-to-run-for-schultz-s-senate-seat/article_98151985-842f-53b6-81a2-f7613176e780.html)

Ernie Wittwer, a former budget director for the state Department of Transportation, has announced a run for the 17th State Senate district. This district is currently represented by a moderate Republican in Dale Shultz. Senator Shutlz is curently getting primaried from the right by Representative Howard Marklein of Assembly District 51, which is most Democratic Assembly seat with a Republican representative at D+9. Interesting note in the article is that Marklein has
raised $116,000 compared with just $684 for Schultz.

With the 17th Senate District at D+6 and the 51st Assembly Distirct at D+9 we are possibly looking at the perfect strom for the Democrats to pick up both if Marklein defeats Shultz in the piramary.

Also is there anyway to get this moved to the state election board. I feel like it would get more attention there.

And Scott Walker, would a scandal be possible?

It would depend on how serious it gets for there to be much of an effect. Problem is that when anything fishy comes out about him, people assume its just politics and nothing substantial.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/marquette-university-law-school-to-release-new-poll-results-b99130541z1-229724451.html

Marquette (the Gold Standard in Wisconsin) shows a narrow Walker lead over Burke, 47-45.

State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout is only down by 3% as well. The key for Burke will be for her to define herself and not the Walker campaign, as she is viewed favorable by 17% while 14% had an unfavorable view and 70% didn't have an opinion.

Are you sure about that? Surely Ron Johnson is too far right for Wisconsin and he will face very tough challenges, but weaker than Mark Kirk in very blue Illinois... I heavily doubt that.

I made a religion map for Wisconsin and I was thinking this thread might be the best place for it (even though it is a demographic map rather than an election one).

The color code is the same as the Ohio map I made ages ago, the brighter the shade, the more dominant the group
Blue = Mainline Protestant
Red = Evangelical Protestant
Green = Catholic
Black = Other

Determinations follow the ARDA Database standards, except that I counted Traditionally Black Churches as mainline (which is pretty much irrelevant in Wisconsin anyway).

()

For the most part, this hints at the political divisions between eastern and western Wisconsin with the east having more green/red/brown and the west having more blue/teal/purple, and it seems the former mix of groups tends to be more conservative than the latter. To a large extent the red/blue split simply highlights the dominance of the ELCA (blue) and LCMS and WELS (red) in different parts of the state.

Looks like State Senator Kathleen Vinehout will run against Mary Burke for Wisconsin governor. Burke is not popular with many in the Labor side of the Democratic Party. Many on that side have been big supporters of Vinehout jumping out. Senator Vinehout represents Eau Claire and the area to the south along the Mississippi River.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/despite-long-odds-vinehout-sounding-as-if-shell-run-against-burke-b99152480z1-233949291.html (http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/despite-long-odds-vinehout-sounding-as-if-shell-run-against-burke-b99152480z1-233949291.html)

State Senator Dale Shultz (R-Richland Center) will not seek reelection in 2014. Shultz is the 3rd Wisconsin State Senator to leave the legislature along with Sen. Tim Cullen (D-Janesville) and Sen. Bob Jauch (D-Poplar). This is one of the few Senate seats in the state currently represented by a Republican that the Democrats having a fighting chance to take. Obama got 56.58% and Baldwin got 51.87% in 2012, yet all 3 Assembly Seats in the district remained Republican in 2012. I would probably lable this as a Toss-Up/Tilt R.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/republican-dale-schultz-wont-seek-re-election-in-senate-b99192350z1-242203711.html (http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/republican-dale-schultz-wont-seek-re-election-in-senate-b99192350z1-242203711.html)

While I am excited with the potential of a Dem pick up here, Dale Shultz is the only Republican in the Wisconsin State Legislature that I respect. He pushed for real bipartisan solutions on everything from Act 10, the mining bill, redistricting reform, etc. Sort of a mix bag with him leaving.

MLS has Walker up 47/41 on Burke from 47/45 in October. So more undecideds... bit weird IMO.

MLS, what is it?
But not surprising though, Walker is leading at this time!

Marquette Law School.

Dale Schultz, the Senator in the D+4 seat, is retiring. (http://host.madison.com/news/local/state-sen-dale-schultz-to-retire/article_5d0beb3f-0db9-5e4f-8968-086f5f7eec60.html)

That's going to be a hard one to hold. This is Southwestern Wisconsin.

Then again Republicans were able to hold all 3 Assembly seats they won in 2010 in a Dem year in 2012. This will be a close race. If Walker keeps his current margin, the Republicans will hold this seat.

I agree, but I have no faith in the Democratic Party of Wisconsin.

But they won with Tammy Baldwin...

Tammy Baldwin won with Tammy Baldwin, DPW is awful.

Southwestern Wisconsin is something of a strange animal. It votes reliably for Democrats on the national level, but can swing wildly in any direction downballot. I have the impression (could be wrong) that SW Wisconsin is the type of place where walking door to door and getting to know the voters makes a huge difference since they tend to vote for the person more than the party. It strikes me as a place where personal relationships are very important. Schultz's retirement is a huge hit for the GOP in the State Senate but with the right candidate (and I have no idea who that might be) we still have a reasonably good chance of keeping the seat.

The region used to be a Republican stronghold in the state on all levels the 1990's when Democrats started starting winning here on the Federal level. In State elections Republicans can still win here. Just look at Walker's victories in 2010 and 2012. This is the region of the Obama-Walker-Walker-Obama voter. If Mary Burke is going to pull off the upset, she needs to win this region.

For the State Senate race, Representative Howard Marklein (R-Spring Green) who was running to the right of Shultz in a Republican primary will be the Republican nominee and former Budget Director for the Wisconsin DOT Ernie Wittwer. I think this will be a fun race to watch and it will be fun to map if it's close.

To those interested in who's running for 17th Senate District:

Ernie Wittwer's Campaign Website (http://www.wittwerforsenate.com/)

Howard Marklein's Campaign Website (http://howardmarklein.com/)

Retiring State Senators Dale Shultz (R-Richland Center) and Tim Cullen (D-Janesville) released examples of what fair Wisconsin maps would look like. The two of them have been pushing hard for Wisconsin to copy how Iowa does redistricting. The maps where made by the non-partisan Legislative Reference Bureau. Republicans would have won control of both chambers in 2010, while Democrats would have won back in 2012. Unfortunately, this has no chance of going anywhere in the legislature.

http://legis.wisconsin.gov/senate/cullen/reform-redistricting/Pages/side-by-side.aspx

A western based 7th would be great! on the other hand wtf is that 75th assembly district, splitting washburn in that way makes little sense.
But yeah its a shame it will never pass.

Yeah, I don't know why they did a east-west split rather than a north-south split in Washurn. That was one spot where I wasn't a fan of the maps. Also I think they set themselves for a lawsuit with those maps as they split up the Oneida Reservation in both the Senate and Assembly map, which is a no-no.

The former mayor of Rice lake Romaine Quinn is going to run here for 75th Assembly District, he was 19 when he was elected mayor in 2010. 

Walker pushes income and property tax cuts. (http://www.politico.com/story/2014/02/scott-walker-wisconsin-tax-cuts-103551.html?hp=t1)

Leaving a nice 700 million hole for his successor.

Time to pray, God, help Wisconsin!

Well this is fun (http://gawker.com/scott-walker-s-former-chief-of-staff-sent-this-insanely-1526375431)

What the...even if they thought all that stuff, why would anyone feel the need to send an email like that...

*Laughs Maniacally* YES! ''Walker's Goin' Down''

Maybe an overreaction, but I really don't like Scott Walker or his policies.

Cook Political Report: Wisconsin: Likely Rep======> Lean Rep.
To be honest, I don't understand. Of course Wisconsin is between lean/likely rep, but why this change?

Probably because it has to look like Cook is responding the the release of the Joe Doe emails. I still don't think Walker will lose, but it could be a bit closer now. I'd love to see a new poll in the state.

Dane deutch is running for state senate again, considering he lost in 2010 I doubt he wins even though jauch is retiring this time.

I'm getting this ad constantly: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrL7jdCEaLc

Assembly Majority Leader Bill Kramer might be resigning his post due to sexual harassment accusations. It seems that the Republican leadership has recently reached that conclusion. 

http://host.madison.com/news/state-and-regional/sources-wis-assembly-leader-may-resign-post/article_f39a1ef5-dc9b-540b-8c5e-1670557003b6.html (http://host.madison.com/news/state-and-regional/sources-wis-assembly-leader-may-resign-post/article_f39a1ef5-dc9b-540b-8c5e-1670557003b6.html)

Wonder who will succeed him.

Burke has her first ad out. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwkY3Tj0_i4&feature=youtu.be)

Good ol political ad showing the candidate in a factory talking to workers.

Burke's statement of unemployment rate increasing under Walker Rated Pants on Fire (http://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/statements/2014/mar/07/mary-burke/democratic-challenger-mary-burke-says-wisconsin-un/)

Walker ad hits Burke for false unemployment rate claim. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWuB0VNNwnQ)

This is strange james o'keefe seems to have targeted a republican and it was with something actually serious. This one seems to be a Dem pickup opportunity aswell.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/ellis-drops-out-of-senate-race-b99245893z1-254907211.html

Dang, two possible Dem pickups. Too bad these seats weren't up in 2012 or 2016.

Obama carried this district by ten points in 2008! Oh yes!

And he even carried this district in 2008 (by 0.01 point)

Ellis has decided not to run for re-election (http://www.postcrescent.com/article/20140411/APC0104/304110232/). Wow that was quick. I would say Ellis has some decency for deciding to retire, but he had the audacity to say this:


lol

State senator Joe Leibham, representing the 9th district, would be interested to run for Petri's seat. An another pick up possibilty for the democrats? Obama carried this district by 4 points in 2008 (and Romney carried this district by 7 points in 2012)

Walker might run for President in 2016 or the United States Senate in 2018 against Baldwin.

Nah. That guy isn't going to win against Petri in a primary, and no democrat is picking up that seat.

Petri is retiring EG!

Oh, well I still don't expect anything to change. GOP already has 3 candidates in the race, any clear frontrunner?

Yes, this guy

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/253734901.html (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/253734901.html)

And that's why we are saying this could be somewhat competitive.

And you Gass, if the 9th district is open, is it a potential dem pick up?

Grothman is the frontrunner only because I'm pretty sure he's the only one that's officially in. I may be wrong though.

The 9th would be a really hard pick up. The Sheboygan-Manitowoc area, even though it was historically Democratic (look at 1960 Presidential election), is pretty Republican now. It would be very hard for a Democrat to win. However, the mayor of Manitowoc is a Democrat and pretty popular. If he were to run, I think it would at least be competitive.   

If it comes down to Leibham and Grothman, I'd probably call Leibham the frontrunner.

I have trouble seeing the Democrats pick up Leibham's seat unless there is some sort of scandal. Even if the Democrats have a popular mayor, what sort of margins would they have to run up around Manitowoc to cancel out Sheboygan County? Leibham won Sheboygan County by about 15,000 votes last time around. Last time Manitowoc County only had about 20,000 voters.

Dammit, Wisconsin will be so interesting in 2014! And probably in 2016 and 2018 too! LoveWisconsin !!!!

PPP will poll Wisconsin. Your prediction?
Personally: 48-42 Walker

46-43 Walker

http://atr.rollcall.com/republicans-prepare-for-primary-fight-in-wisconsin-house-race/
I hope they will poll this primary too.

http://m.host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/on-politics/on-politics-brett-hulsey-plans-to-hand-out-kkk-hoods/article_ba0539d0-1d24-58d7-882a-415e6715eb95.html?mobile_touch=true (http://m.host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/on-politics/on-politics-brett-hulsey-plans-to-hand-out-kkk-hoods/article_ba0539d0-1d24-58d7-882a-415e6715eb95.html?mobile_touch=true)

What an asshole.

Yes, Hulsey is ... special

Not a good month for the WI GOP party (http://new.scenenewspaper.com/2014/05/wisconsin-gops-bad-month/)
-the scandal who forced a rep state senator to retire (Ellis: his district: D+1 Obama carried twice)
-The retirement of Petri: tea party vs gop establishment race: Grothman vs Leithman. The establishment should win, but Leithman's district is now open (R+3).
-Their senate majority leader was forced to resign because of a sex harassment scandal.

Wisconsin is now a toss up for  Cook.

Too soon, and they underestimate Walker.
And I say that as someone who deeply hates him.

No they don't. They're acknowledging the good chunk of votes in the recall that simply opposed the idea of a recall and they are acknowledging the polls, especially the huge Marquette one. Tied and the campaign has barely started? Toss up.

Scene Newspaper? Seriously?!

How very generous of David Koch: (http://www.prwatch.org/news/2014/05/12490/americans-prosperity-charity-pours-900k-walker-race)

I don't think the Kochs will let Walker lose, even if they have to spend $100 million for him.

First Burke signage I've seen, was today on the atlas forum... lol.  I wonder how much money this trust fund baby, spoiled brat will spend on her campaign.  10 million?  15 million?  I wouldn't mind her wealth if she worked a day in her life.     

I assume you felt the same way about Romney?

Noticed I said "worked a day" something the Romney's obviously have. 

Fair enough, so you must really hate Paul Ryan?

I'm not talking about "the Romneys", I'm talking about Willard M. Romney. Remember, your presidential nominee from a year and a half ago? I can understand why you'd like to forget though.

Yeah, if you count Romney's life as "work", then Burke's should as well. And the Mormon Missionary crap don't count dawg.

Lets weigh this out:
A) Willard has a habit of building billion dollar companies from scratch or the scrape heap.  That's work any way you define it.
B) Dick Burke's daughter has a habit of taking several year long snowboarding sabbaticals from    "her job" at daddies company.  That isn't work any way you look at it.   

...I keep hoping the lefties will be coherent and logical and examine facts, but no.  They only offer hypocrisy, inconsistent, and flawed emotional 'thoughts'. 
This instance is an example.  Democrats make up some standard for Romney or Ryan that they supposedly don't meet (which dems have to kinda lye and fudge about, but wtev). If you take THEIR OWN STANDARD and apply it to THEIR candidate, than they are forced to confront the fact that Burke obviously doesn't meet their own standard.  So then you get these interesting child-like reactions "grrrr ahhh  Ryan, Romney are sort of as bad as our candidate if you lie about them... grrr damn GOP is racist anyway."

 Just say we were wrong to make that crap up about Romney and Ryan and we are ready to move on without manufacturing class warfare, as that is the only way we can logically support Marry Burke whose only actual political asset is her entirely inherited wealth.  I understand you can't because the brain dead in your base actually believe your false narratives and are thus permanently programmed to hate on an ideological basis and mob dynamics.                           

Or nah

I think there was a stronger reaction to the labor union shenanigans at the start of Walker's term.

Since Walker is from Milwaukee, this area would not naturally identify with him.  In much of this area, a teacher's salary is a pretty good salary, and because of the less dense population, teachers are more integrated in the local community.  So there would be more of a shock when teachers skip class to go to Madison.  And the occupation of the capital would be seen more as a trashing of the capital to someone who may have only been there once or twice, if at all.

Take a look at the Walker recall vote, vs his original election and it looks much the same as your map.

They still have "protesters" in the capitol.  I'm told they sing socialist songs in the rotunda everyday around noon...  in a manner that scares (and scars) school children on tours.   

WHO WILL THINK OF THE CHILDREN!!! ::)

Yes, clearly Mitt "if you want to start your own business, asks your parents for money!" Romney became successful from scratch...LOL

Didn't happen (as far as I know, and I'm pretty sure).  He had access to capitol, so I don't see why he would want any money from his parents.  Mitt isn't a taker like most wealthy democrats.  Mitt had more money than his dad by far when he died, so he donated his entire inheritance to endow a college in his father's name.  It's like every lefty automatically assumes parents have to throw money at their kids and kids have to be net takers... or they are trying to perpetrate a lie about someone.  Again, can't support Burke by your own standard.  

Oh yes the Solidarity Sing Along. To be honest it's kind of amusing at this point; half the time you can't even tell what they're protesting anymore. Truthfully that's not uncommon in this town in general. You tune it out after a while. Such is life.

I don't think the Solidarity Sing Along is particularly helpful to the Democrats' cause. I think they look ridiculous. But they have a right to look ridiculous.

'Scars'? You can't be serious.

Madison protests can be a very scarring experience :P

Anecdotally, I think of anything I've seen here the thing that bothered me the most was when there was a weed protest in on the street in front of my church and some people in the protest were smoking pot on the church steps. I know that isn't some kind of traumatizing event by any stretch of the imagination, but that bothered me more than anything else I've seen.

The anti-Walker stuff is really just funny since it's almost always so over the top because they've already exhausted the verbal hatred by now. From "Recall Walker" to "Impeach Walker" to "Jail Walker", where do you really go from there?

They kind of just ruin the mood.  I have a warm memory of visiting the capitol in grade school, it really is one of the most beautiful capitols in the country and one of the few 'fully - functioning - museum - landmark' ones.  It probably wouldn't be as warm a memory if I witnessed asylum patients chanting tongues.  
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ZQl-WD2aWY (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ZQl-WD2aWY)
You can here them in the background as segway boy rides around babbling and chanting harassing nonsense and then lying about what he's saying.     Ryan repeatedly harassed Gwyn Guenther, reporter and daughter of the deceased longtime Capitol reporter Dick Wheeler, the founder of the Wheeler Report, a popular Capitol news service. Guenther has since moved her office from the Capitol to avoid hearing segway boys chant of "wheeler's dead" everyday.  
 
...on the other hand you did get this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uDihYmhsMA (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uDihYmhsMA) awesome spontaneous counter protest of the protesters from high school kids.  
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGJzhzGfqDI (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGJzhzGfqDI)
To top it off Dekker hit a late 3 to win the title, those Sheboygan Lu kids have class.  

Can we end this pointless discussion? Its killing a perfectly good electoral thread.

Thank you!

Jeremy segway boy ryan is Paul Ryan's primary opponent.

Grothman is running, and there are four other Republicans also in the race. They are:
-State Senator Joe Leibham
-State Representative Duey Stroebel
-Some Dude Thom Denow
-Some Dude(tte) Nancy Olson

I predict a Grothman win in a plurality, as he will be supported by Social Conservatives and Tea Partiers, while Leibham and Stroebel will split the moderate/establishment vote. The vote shares of the some dude candidates will probably add up to 5 percent.

However, I could be very wrong, as there is no polling of the race. Hopefully, we'll have a clearer view once the polls start rolling out.

The New Republic did a really thorough profile of Walker  (http://www.newrepublic.com/article/118145/scott-walkers-toxic-racial-politics?utm_content=bufferbe509&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer)and tied in much of Milwaukee's history.

So if Walker runs for President and wins the nomination and resigns mid 2016 to free him from the campaign finance rules against Governors does Kleefisch remain Governor until 2018 or is a special election called?

She'd remain governor.

Walker zings Johnson: (http://www.jsonline.com/watchdog/noquarter/did-walker-rip-gop-senator-national-review-says-yes-he-says-no-b99293223z1-263567891.html)

Prosecutors allege Scott Walker was "at the center of a criminal scheme"

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/federal-judge-unseals-hundreds-of-documents-in-john-doe-probe-b99295017z1-263839791.html (http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/federal-judge-unseals-hundreds-of-documents-in-john-doe-probe-b99295017z1-263839791.html)

Glorious news! :)

Interestingly, the documents were unsealed at the request of the Wisconsin Club for Growth.


Have you reached a sufficient level of political hackishness where you want Walker to be guilty of something (which hasn't happened and likely won't)?

Well,
Wait and see for Walker.

The slimy bastard might finally get caught.

Rothenberg moves the Gov race to Lean R from Likely R. (http://blogs.rollcall.com/rothenblog/rating-change-wisconsin-governor/) Seems a bit late (as usual).

Is anyone ever polling this race again ?

The last poll was done 2 months ago.

This is a really close race after all ...

Brutal anti-Walker ad using his own words. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3M1lU2v2Ej8)

Yeah, that's a great ad. Ads that use politicians' words against them are always my favorite.

Burke is Walker's worst nightmare.

I would just run this ad every day until November, several times a day. There's no comeback to that.

Beautiful ad

Rothenberg cites that ad in moving WI from Lean R to Tossup. (http://blogs.rollcall.com/rothenblog/rating-change-wisconsin-governor-2/)

Wisconsin's Primaries are this Tuesday.

Here's a quick rundown on some of the races I'll be watching:

1. Republican Primary for WI-6, the seat of Jim Petri, who is retiring:
()
There are three candidates, State Senator Glenn Grothman (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenn_Grothman) (R-West BendCampbellsport), State Assemblyman Duey Stroebel (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duey_Stroebel) (R-Cedarburg), and State Senator Joe Leibham (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Leibham) (R-Sheboygan). Grothman is running as the Tea Party candidate though neither Leibham nor Stroebel is a RINO by any means. Grothman also didn't live in the district until earlier this year. While I don't live in WI-6 and obviously can't vote, I'm hoping Leibham wins because he best represents the district, I agree with him most ideologically, and I respect the work he's done to try and change Wisconsin's pathetic drunk driving laws. He's also the only candidate not from the Milwaukee metro area, which the majority of the district is not in. Regardless, I think any of the three can win in November and if I lived there would vote for any of the three.

2. Democratic Primary for Governor: I'm watching this, not because it will be close (it won't) but out of sheer amusement at how many votes State AssemblymanBrett Hulsey (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brett_Hulsey) can get. Hulsey has raised some eyebrows over the years for knocking a random kid off an intertube at the beach, trying to make a backroom deal to switch parties, and handing out KKK hoods at the Republican State Convention, among other things. I see him all the time riding around town either in his car or by bike collecting signatures and shaking hands. I'm genuinely curious to see how much support an undefunded vocal anti-establishment left wing candidate can garner. Trek executive Mary Burke (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Burke) is obviously going to win.

3. Democratic Primary for WI 78th State Assembly District: In the district where I used to live up until a year ago, Madison City Aldermen Mark Clear and Lisa Subeck are vying to win the seat vacated by Brett Hulsey in is run for governor. Both are far, far to the left on pretty much every issue, though I'm rooting for Clear to win as although I agree with him on more or less nothing, he seems more amiable toward people with other views. That and Subeck was the Executive Director of NARAL Pro-Choice Wisconsin.

In the 75th AD there is a primary on the R side between ken mandley a pastor from turtle lake and romaine quinn the former mayor of rice lake. who is 23 and was mayor at 19. he was also a paulite back when he was mayor, I dont know if he still is. 

I will be voting quinn of course, and probably will vote for nutters on the rest of the gop ballot. :)

Looks like Grothman is going to win. Only candidate that could make the 6th competitive.

On a scale of 1 to Bachmann, how unelectable is he?

I'll let you decided.

I know that some of these are from left leaning sites, but I think it gets the point across.

 Proposes Law That Declares Single Parenthood Child Abuse (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/02/glenn-grothman-wisconsin-law-single-parenthood-child-abuse_n_1316834.html)

 "Women make less because ‘Money is more important for men" (http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/glenn-grothman-wisconsin-state-senator-women-money-important-men-article-1.1059872)

Fights For A Seven-Day Workweek (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/03/glenn-grothman-wisconsin_n_4537891.html)

More Quotes (http://host.madison.com/news/local/writers/jack_craver/the-quotes-that-will-follow-glenn-grothman-forever/article_b19d8770-c027-11e3-ab57-0019bb2963f4.html)

Jesus christ. We just got rid of Bachmann in Minnesota only to have her return in Wisconsin.

In other bad news, Lisa Subeck defeated Mark Clear for Wisconsin Assembly District 78, adding another NARAL/Planned Parenthood abortion proponent to the Madison statehouse delegation.

I must say Gass, I'm rather underwhelmed by your scare quotes from Grothman. A little inarticulate maybe, but a lot of what he said is not wrong.

I would have to disagree and it appears that Maxy does as well! :P  Also I just read that Mark Harris, who as the Winnebago County Executive should be a formidable opponent, has barely raised any money. Maybe this will help him bring in some cash. I'd have to put this district at Lean R right now, but it could easily move to either Likely R/Safe R or Toss Up.   

Also this is from the Democratic Primary for the 17th Senate District:

Ernie Wittwer   Dem   3,828   50%
Pat Bomhack   Dem   3,826   50%


There was a really nasty primary here. This is good news for Howard Marklein in his efforts to replace Senator Shultz.

The republican candidate for SOS. Obviously im going to vote for him
()

Really bad editorial for Governor Walker from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel regarding the projected $1.8 billion deficient (http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/wisconsin-state-budget-shortfall-projected-at-nearly-18-billion-b99345660z1-274364501.html). MJS endorsed Walker in both 2010 and the 2012 recalls. 


http://www.jsonline.com/news/opinion/if-theres-a-budget-mess-this-time-it-belongs-to-gov-scott-walker-b99348256z1-274616501.html

Mary Burke praises Reagan in new ad. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NylJy0Vl0Fg&list=UUG4AHl8e6ckM9t3rvBkN0lA)

I'd say this is the best ad so far in this race.

Her ads have been excellent almost all cycle. A much better campaigner than Barrett ever was.

I expected to cringe, but that was actually a great ad. Burke has definitely exceeded my expectations.

Why did you expect to cringe?

She's been a wonderful campaigner and one can hope she will be as great serving as Governor.

I thought it was going to be a "Conservadem/Gotta attract Dem Raygun Democrats" type of praising Reagan.

Burke's jobs platform was plagiarized. (http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/wisconsin-democratic-gubernatorial-candidate-plagiarized-lar?utm_term=1akf4m2#3vfr2nd)

Wow. Walsh, Wehby, and now Burke???

This is in no way comparable to Walsh's academic plagiarism. More comparable to when Republicans laughed at Mary Landrieu's website for copy and pasting stuff from Michelle Nunn's like a year ago. In other words, no impact whatsoever.

BOOM

Agreed, not nearly as bad, but still not good by any means. Thankfully this is happening on September 19 and not October 19. This should be a non-issue by Nov, I'd imagine.

This is a dumb criticism. Her platform was "plagiarized"? Policymaking isn't a university course where you're getting some qualification that indicates your ability to do original work. If a policy from elsewhere is a good one, there's no reason not to adopt it.

Mhmmm we have a Senator in Kentucky who made up his credentials as an opthamalogist and had plenty of legitimate plagiarism.

If he got in,then so can Burke

EMILY's List goes on the air with $1.2M. (http://www.wbay.com/story/26592760/emilys-list-to-spend-12-million-for-burke) Good for Burke, as GOP groups have outspent Democratic groups.

FLOTUS to Milwaukee for Burke: (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/276192901.html)

Not sure why people are shrugging off this mass website/platform copy and pasting with Burke, in a toss-up race this type of stuff puts her policy credentials in question, and that might be enough of a hole for Walker to exploit and develop an edge.

It's not her fault, but she should have paid more attention to it, and her staff is doing a TERRIBLE job at damage control and heading stuff off, they are reacting in panic and someone should have noticed this would get caught eventually.

Textbook example of highbrow consultants damaging campaigns with arrogance and blandness, it makes Burke come across as a copycat candidate, less genuine than before, consultants and handlers are hurting her, those people drive me crazy with their arrogance

She's actually doubling down with an ad defending it.  (http://www.rightwisconsin.com/main/Breaking-Mary-Burke-Takes-Pride-In-Plagiarism-in-New-TV-Ad-277230052.html) NRO also has a Burke profile. (http://www.nationalreview.com/article/388803/wisconsins-dilettante-eliana-johnson)

The most ironic thing is she's on the Madison Board of Education.

oh good gosh, this is just pathetic, she's gloating about this, smh so disrespectful to the voters

Not sure if crazy or just crazy enough to work.

SCOTUS blocks WI voter ID law. (http://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisgeidner/supreme-court-blocks-wisconsin-voter-id-law-from-going-into#3sx62fv)

A great victory for the people!

http://m.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/democrats-hit-candidate-schimel-for-statement-on-interracial-marriage-b99367685z1-278580281.html (http://m.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/democrats-hit-candidate-schimel-for-statement-on-interracial-marriage-b99367685z1-278580281.html)

Looking forward to watching the gubernatorial debate tonight.


Yeah, Schimel's a damn joke.

I only caught the ending of the debate, but it certainly seemed like Walker was making attempts to appear softer and more compassionate, with Burke bringing up a tougher attitude. Hopefully throughout the debate she didn't seem too mean or stiff.

Needle didn't move.

I watched the full debate with my parents. Both repeated talking points, nonsense slogans like "giveaways to the top and rich" or "protecting hard working tax payers of Wisconsin". Topics discussed were Minimum Wage, Act 10, Full Term, Medicaid expansion, the Budget, Jobs plan, Voter ID (with the recent decision), Abortion, and Energy/Environment. I think Burke did good in the beginning of the debate, while Walker did better near the end of the debate. I think Walker won, because I tend to agree or have a closer position to him on most issues, but it really contestable whether that debate would impact the election. Probably not. Burke was starting to slip near the end, and Walker slipped in the abortion and voter ID questions (the least relevant part of the debate anyway).

There's another one next week. On a separate note, I don't think I'll watch a debate with my parents again, they literally think Burke is a socialist.

No really what do you think of Wisconsin voters? LOL.
 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/21/wisconsin-voters-election_n_6022034.html)

Robert Costa: Walker is the most worried he's been in four years (http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/wisconsin-gov-scott-walkers-tough-fight-against-mary-burke-will-decide-2016-future/2014/10/21/04ad7006-5934-11e4-b812-38518ae74c67_story.html)

Hopefully Wisconsin voters will relieve that stress on Election Day.

Yep, Walker certainly won't have much to worry about anymore after election day. ;)

Walker's camp accusing Christie of intentionally under-funding him to get rid of a 2016 rival! (http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/does-chris-christie-have-scott-walkers-back_816996.html)

Email from conservative grandee: if Walker loses, it'll be "like when [Christie] didn't show up in [PA] for Romney" (https://twitter.com/costareports/status/525490294541000704)

Robert Costa also reports on his twitter that Burke is preparing to go nuclear in the final 10 days, hitting Walker hard on his scandals and the 2011 union saga.

Looks like Burke's got the wind in her sails now! Her closing ad is really fantastic IMO. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJ_SA7f9uNs) Manages to tie all the themes of her and others' attacks on Walker together.

Sounds like Walker and his crew are hitting the panic button. That's not an accusation you throw around 11 days before an election you think you're going to win.

Looks like Walker's campaign may be the George Washington bridge of 2014. Serves them right for keeping a corrupt puffer fish as the RGA chairman.

You almost never hear stories like this when things are going well. This is awesome news! Only 12 more days!

He's not entirely wrong. Christie is a huge crook.

I wouldn't be surprised if that's true, Christie should have never been trusted with this amount of money/power. He's using it to serve himself. Isn't he also airing ads with Kasich in Ohio just because?

Yeah, him and Corbett are getting money inspite of their individual situations, meanwhile Walker is getting f-ed in the a on saturday.

^ Yep, if I were a Republican donor I'd be pretty pissed Christie is sending millions to Corbett while underfunding Walker.

No, it's critically important that Corbett loses by 10 rather than 20 and that Kasich wins by 30 rather than 20. Walker losing by 1 instead of winning by 1? That's just not as high on the priority list. ;)

It seems the tub of lard is as incompetent at managing money as he is at managing his staff.

How many god damn credit downgrades has he had? All they seem to care about is putting a happy face on the party instead of running people who can actually do their god damn job.

Walker camp seems to be getting pretty close to meltdown mode.

And two years from now he's going to run for President saying that he'll balance the budget.

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/09/glenn-grothman-wisconsin-republican-congress-quotes

Disgusting...

I forgot Grothman did actually win the primary, sh*t. This guy is going to be Wisconsin's Bachmann.

Obama won the district in 2008, so hopefully he won't be around nearly as long as Bachmann was.

He'll probably get Blanche'd in 2016

This guy is the worst of the worst a Republican can get. Unbelievable.

The Walker-Christie feud continues to heat up! (http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/scott-walker-chris-christie-2014-elections-112227.html)


Walker's really not been acting like someone who thinks he's going to win the past couple of days.

If he does win re-election, Walker is going to be looking to take some pounds of flesh off Christie in the primary debates (no pun intended).

It's not like Christie is going to sway anyone who wasn't going to vote for Walker. Raising money is indeed his area.

Obama is coming to Milwaukee today to campaign for Burke. This is the start of a 6 state swing that includes Michigan, Maine, Rhode Island, Connecticut and Pennsylvania.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/28/obama-2014-elections_n_6062152.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/28/obama-2014-elections_n_6062152.html)

RIP Burke

Don't worry, it isn't Michelle Obama.

It makes sense why he's coming, need to fire up minority voters in Milwaukee. I can't see this becoming an issue in the rest of the state.

You people seriously over estimate how much voters care about this stuff.

Crap, I ment to say this will not be an issue in the rest of the state.

What a goddamn legend.

()

Burke letting Obama come in is a big sign of confidence on her part.

F[inks] it, I'll take a GOP sweep of the swings and competitives if we can just kick out Walker.

Agreed, its all about GOTV now and Obama helps you do that in Milwaukee.

Burke fired by family from Trek for incompetence (http://watchdog.org/179822/mary-burke-trek-sales/)

Let me know when a legitimate news outlet reports this, k?

Here's a credible source. (https://twitter.com/DanODradio/status/527637481353920512)

Link. Both Burke and her brother deny it. (http://bigstory.ap.org/article/c6e5add5979e46baac57411846f54b11/wisconsin-candidate-rejects-claim-trek-fired-her)

Damn, Walker's campaign must be getting desperate.

Ummmm...


http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/purple-wisconsin/280884742.html (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/purple-wisconsin/280884742.html)

lmao this story is such bs

The former Trek Pres and CEO backs the story up.  And this guy doesn't have any axe to grind.  If the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel dug into Burke as hard as they have Gov Walker, this would have been reported months ago.

http://www.newstalk1130.com/onair/common-sense-central-37717/former-trek-president-and-ceo-confirms-12916069/

No one cares.

Wisconsin State Journal endorses Burke after endorsing Walker in 2010 and the 2012 recall.

http://host.madison.com/news/opinion/editorial/burke-best-fit-to-reenergize-state-economy/article_705e6745-6bf3-5f40-a301-b774e4b320df.html#.VFY7ivh5Inw.facebook (http://host.madison.com/news/opinion/editorial/burke-best-fit-to-reenergize-state-economy/article_705e6745-6bf3-5f40-a301-b774e4b320df.html#.VFY7ivh5Inw.facebook)

probably too late

Just called for walker.