Talk Elections

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/christie-strongly-favored-for-reelection-voters-still-lukewarm-on-2016-bid.html

Clinton 52%
Christie 40%

Christie 47%
Biden 41%

Christie 50%
Cuomo 35%

Do you want Christie to run for president?
yes 38%
no 44%

a 12 point lead turns into a 6 point loss? Those are deadly numbers for Biden.

That's what I'm thinking! That's an amazing shift right there.

I'm not sure what to make of this poll. If anything, this should tell us that barring a Clinton nomination, Christie should be favored to win New Jersey, which will be very big for the GOP.

Perhaps.  Though Christie's homestate popularity would fade somewhat after he goes through a national GOP primary.

Also, only Clinton and Biden have near-universal name recognition right now on the Dem. side.  Even though much of NJ is in the NYC media market for example, 31% in this poll have no opinion of Cuomo.  Hard to predict how NJ voters will react to other Dem. candidates once the race is on, and they become better known.

Still, even if Christie doesn't maintain leads like this against the non-Clinton Dem. field, Christie as nominee does make NJ likely to be much closer than it was in '12.  (Again, barring Clinton as nominee.)

Christie's popularity is also currently artificially inflated because of Sandy. In four years it'll have returned to normal levels.

That's quite a good showing for Hillary Clinton.

What about Cuomo ? Name recognition ? Or do NJians hate New Yorkers ?

I doubt there are many people in NJ who don't know who Cuomo is (just as there are hardly any NYers who don't know who Christie is). I guess NJ just figures that if they're gonna have to vote for a Republican anyway, better theirs than ours.

I also think Christie's number could be inflated by the hurricane but if Clinton isn't the nominee he could turn NJ to a swing state.

A look back to the 2008 shows Obama not only trailing McCain in New Jersey early on but in Massachusetts as well.

The fact that Biden is still polling in the 40s is a pretty good sign, IMO. Christie's popularity will have returned to normal levels by '16, and Biden's will get an obvious boost, should he be the nominee, from being the 'Obama's third term' candidate.

At such early point, McCain was leading Obama in all states but IL, HI and D.C.

This is a good indications how worthless early speculative polls are.

All three of these would defeat Christie in NJ and in the national election in 2016.

Obama also JUST became a United States Senator.

Um, it had been 4 years.

The Favorite Son effect applies. A nominee from his own state ordinarily does somewhere from 10% to 15%  than could otherwise be expected -- so long as people look favorably upon him. In 1976, Gerald Ford won Michigan but lost Ohio. South Dakota was the fourth-best state for George McGovern in 1972, and Minnesota was the only state that Walter Mondale won in 1984.  

I am not sure that Chris Christie has a real chance in Republican primaries in which the Tea Party has residual influence, though. After all he cut a deal with someone whom most Republicans consider thoroughly evil so that he could get storm aid when according to the Hard Right nobody should do anyone even for the good of his own state if it helps Obama win an election.  

Not in January of 2008.  He had just won Iowa.