Talk Elections

As a Norwegian, I obviously thought that this election deserved a thread on here...

Some Background:

The Norwegian government, led by Jens Stoltenberg, is campaigning for å third consecutive term in office, which would be pretty unusual event for Norwegian politics - since 1965, no government has been re-elected more than once.

However, a third term for the "Red-Green" coalition looks pretty unlikely at the moment, as the opposition currently leads by about 20 points in most polls. The polls also shows Labour losing its position as the largest party in Norway; this would be an even more unique event as far as Norwegian politics are concerned, as Labour has been the biggest party at every election since 1921.

There are almost 8 months to go until the lection, and the polls may of course have changed by then. Still, the government is running out of time, and needs to quickly improve its polling to have any chance of winning in September.

1. Welcome to the forum! Weird that noone had claimed the username 'lurker' yet.

2. You'd have to be a quite unfeeling person not to feel as an outsider that the Norwegian Labour Party deserves a victory this year. What do polls say exactly?

The Left came back from quite a way down last time, of course, though not so close to the election. Oh well.


Some poll averages here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_parliamentary_election,_2013)

Why has the Norwegian government become so unpopular in the past year ?

The economy is still doing well, as far as I know. Something important happened ? Scandals ?

How was the government's handling of Breivik's massacre regarded?

Hoyre becoming the largest party would be kind of amazing...

From what I can gather on the wiki page, it seems the threshold to enter by PR is 4%, and there are also riding seats ? Can you, Lurker, since you started the thread, enlighten us a bit on the voting system, and maybe on the great movements of the campaign, i.e. why the government is so low, who's gaining and losing, and so on.

Thanks for starting it by the way, and welcome here ! :)

Thanks a lot! I've been following the forum for quite a while, so I found the name  fitting...
The polls do not look good for Labour at the moment, as stated. Though they are not polling that badly themselves, both of their coalition partners are hovering around the 4% treshold.  The opposition has held a pretty clear majority in the past few years - except for right after Utøya, when Labour's support greatly increased for a short while (due to Stoltenberg's handling of the tragedy and an obvious sympathy wave towards Labour)


aardal.info/gallup.pdf is a good website, listing the polls of all polling firms, and averaging them as well.


Pretty good at first, and the PM was given much praise, even by many right-wingers. last year though the government was massively critizised for the handling of the massacre, after a "22 of July" Commission came out with a pretty devastating analysis. The opposition did milk this for all it was worth, and the country's biggest newspaper even (strangely) called for Stoltenberg's resignation. Now that the Breivik trial is over, the mood has calmed quite a bit, and I doubt that 22/7/11 will play much part in the election.


My own explanation would be that it is mostly due to government fatigue after 8 years of the Red-Greens. You are totally right in that the economy is doing well, at least when you compare with practically all other West European countries. Still, the opposition (for obvious reasons) and the media (where bad news and sensationalism is always better than good news) has created a narrative in which everything is somehow going wrong, or is not good enough - a narrative that the Red-Greens has not succeded in changing.
Other than 22/7, there have been several  scandals through the entire governing period, most of them obviously faux scandals and utterly unimportant. Real of imagined though, these "scandals" always get a lot of attention, and this may too be part of the reason why the govt is trailing so badly.

Hey, welcome! I'm always happy when we get more people from different countries. AFAIK we have Danes, Swedes, and Finns but no Norwegians yet, so cool to have you here :)

Anyway, even if the right is winning at least the Progress Party is down. It looks like just from the seat estimates on Wiki that with current polling the center-right would have a majority without Progress, which would at least be tolerable (to me).

Norway's Centre Party is polling almost as badly as its Swedish neighbor (for differing reasons, obviously)
Seems like there easily could be a Conservative-Progress overall majority, which would liberate them from the need to include the Christian Democrat party, who remain uncooperative at a national level with Progress. It's be a pretty decent government from a libertarian perspective- but I don't approve of Progress's plan to spend the oil surplus, as a fiscal conservative (well, i guess a bit would be OK-  at most 20% in total)
Progress's supposed xenophobia seems to have been massively overstated, they're basically a eurosceptic FDP or socially liberal UKIP. Their requirements seem to be that all citizens and migrants of Norway of all races should practice and live by the basic tents and values of the Norwegian constitution and society- wholly reasonable and agreeable demands in my view. If I had to move there I'd bloody well do my best to learn Bokmal and actually respect national culture.

Sounds similar to the situation in Sweden back in 2006 when the Alliance swept into power. It's not an identical situation (The economy was good but employment wasn't as good as in Norway)

Indeed. It would be pretty heartbreaking to see them lose now.


Anyway, welcome to the forum, Lurker! :)

Thanks! :) Yeah, I've noticed there being many Swedes And Danes here, but none from Norway, strangely enough.

I don't think the center-right would have a majority without the PP from the current polling, and the chance of that happening is extremly unlikely, IMO. Unless my math is totally wrong, the Wiki page estimates that H+V+KrF will have 70 seats or so - and 85 is needed for a majority. Though there is a good chance that the three will, under such a result, form a minority government without the Progress Party.

The 2009 thread is excellent on that issue IIRC.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=98718.0

if it happenned to Fianna Fail, it can happen to AP, at least its Hoyre and not FrP overtaking them

will Hoyre want a coalition with them though? surely a Bondevik-style coalition with confidence and supply is more likely?

is there any reason other than being part of the government for Senterpartiet and SV being down in the polls?

Høyre has traditionally been quite hostile towards FrP, and until recently very sceptical of bringing them into government. This has changed though, and Høyre these days appears positive towards a coalition that includes FrP - though Venstre and KrF are both very sceptical of governing with FrP, so a Bondevik-style solution may indeed be more likely at this point.

As for SV, 2012 was pretty much an annus horribilis for them, with their newly elected leader being involved in a scandal, and shortly afterwards a lot of (quite amusing) internal squabbling within the party.
Senterpartiet has also had some infighting and not many charismatic politicians in their leadership, but they are actually not polling that much worse than their "normal" rate, having a very low "roof" of potential voters due to the nature of the part. I suspect they will win their typical 5-6% at the election.

This is a fascinating election, and I'd be interested in knowing the electoral geography in Norway and other Nordic countries and the history behind it. Why do rural areas(which, in most other countries, including my own tend to vote conservatively) vote for left-wing parties by such overwhelming numbers, while underperforming in urban areas?

Additionally, will Labor be able to energize their base during the course of the campaign the same way they did in 2009? And does the left-wing coalition have any realistic chance of retaining their majority come September, given their 20 point shellacking in the polls?

Well too be honest the fact that in Scandinavia "rural areas vote left while urban areas vote right" is really a half-truth and over simplification. Poor rural areas vote for the left. Rich urban areas vote for the right. There are plenty of rich and righ-wing rural areas, and likewise poor and left-wing cities.

In that way we're no different from say Britain. Very urban Chelsea is also very right-wing, while small rural mining towns in the north of England is anything but right-wing.

Norway, Sweden, and Finland  just happen to have more poor rural areas, and more wealthy urban areas than on average.

Very good points by Swedish Cheese.
 It could also be noted that part of the reason that (many) rural areas in Norway has a "left-wing"/red-green majority is due to the large support for Senterpartiet on the countryside, which adds many votes to the combined "left". Senterpartiets alliance with the left is a very recent development, however, and the party has traditionally preferred to ally with the centre-right. Senterpartiets switch from the centre-right column to the left column of Norwegian politics therefore makes some rural areas appear much more "left-wing" than earlier (hope that made any sense).

As for the Norwegian cities, they vary a lot when it comes to the left/right divide. Oslo, by far the largest city, has been split pretty much 50-50 at the last two parliamentary elections, but has been right-leaning on the municipal level. Bergen and Stavanger (2nd and 4th larges cities, both in the west) are both clearly Conservative cities. Trondheim on the other hand, is slightly left-leaning. As you can see, it's a pretty mixed picture.

As Swedish Cheese states, there  is (and has always been) a strong element of class-based voting, and this is particularly true for the cities as far as Norway is concerned. The most clearest illustration of this might be Oslo, where the West of the city votes very right-wing, and the East is solidly left-wing

The right wing populist Progress Party gets its worst result since 2001 with 13,7% in an Ipsos MMI poll from Dagbladet published today.

Høyre and Fremskrittspartiet no longer have a majority.


Rødt/Red 2,0%

SV/Socialist Left 5,7%

Arbeiderpartiet/Labour 28,0%

Senterpartiet/Centre Party 4,9%

Venste/Liberals 5,4%

Kristelig Folkeparti/Christian Peoples Party 4,7%

Høyre/Conservatives 32,5%

Fremskrittspartiet/Progress Party 13,7%

Others 3,2%

Partibaromeret at TV2 Norge with all major Norwegian polls.
http://politisk.tv2.no/spesial/partibarometeret/ (http://politisk.tv2.no/spesial/partibarometeret/)

Good to hear; what a horrid coalition that would be.

SV have lost two thirds of their vote since 2005, and yet from that link I can't see who's benefited? Are they d/k/stay at homes?

Why was there a big swing in from the Progress Party to the Conservatives?

There are many possible reasons. One of them being the economic turmoil in Europe. People are of course concerned that it might spread to Norway, and that makes them turn to the parties that are considered fiscally responsible, and that is Arbeiderpartiet (Labour) on the left, and Høyre (Conservatives) on the right.

Not to mention that Siv Jensen is working hard to ensure that FrP (The Progress Party) will have a place in the next center-right coalition government. That means toning down some of the issues that separate FrP from the rest of the right (global warming for example). That is a problem for some of FrPs voters, that want the party to be more confrontational. I believe Siv Jensen is doing the right thing here. FrP was far more popular under Carl Ivar Hagen, but he never managed to utilize that political capital, because he didn't want to cooperate with the other parties on the right.

Finally, another possible reason for the growth in the support of Høyre is that they have toned down a lot of their more controversial policies. They don't talk as much about privatization and tax cuts as they did in 2005 for example. I think that is why they have gained some voters that used to support Arbeiderpartiet. The only problem is that a lot of the party base thinks they have gone to far towards the center. That isn't really a big problem yet, but it could become one in the future.

I can't see how moving back to the Conservatives would help their cause. Even a moderated PP is more right-wing than the Conservatives, no?

Well, that's basically how you win elections in Scandinavia as a big Conservative party these days, go towards the centre, make the public employees feel safe (especially the women) so they trust you not to butcher the welfare state and then slowly move society to the right after you win. Venstre did it in Denmark, Moderaterna is doing it in Sweden and I bet it will work just fine for Solberg in Norway. Generally those parties haven't lost much support. Norway may eventually get something similar to our Liberal Alliance polling 4-5% (depending on PPs tax policies), but it will still be worth it for Solberg and Høyre.

Beautifull page! If they had averages, it would be wonderfull.

I think that depends in the issue. PP are certainly to the right on a lot of cultural issues, as well as on immigration and environmental questions. But a lot of PPs core voters aren't concerned with cutting spending and balancing budgets. They want lower taxes, but also a welfare state just as big as today.

The rank-and-file of the Conservatives also approve of the welfare state, but they are more receptive to the idea of reforming and downsizing it than a lot of the PP voters. The party base wants tax cuts, and would probably (at least to some extent) endorse cuts in the welfare state. In PP the jury is still out on that question, since they believe they can get both.

Dunno about 2005-09. Since 2009 50%+ of the loss has gone to Labour and 17% to Others incl. Red and the Greens, then 10% to the Liberals (makes sense since they are Social Liberal and green) and 10% to Conservatives, which must be the "join a winning team" effect. Then you got around 10% left which is spread on Center, PP and Christian Peoples Party.

Some voters always go in strange directions when you got a multiparty system. In Denmark we have quite a few people going straight from our super-humanitarian, EU loving, globalization friendly Social Liberals to DPP.

http://blogg.tv2.no/kjetilloset/2013/03/15/dette-er-velgerne-som-snur-ryggen-til-lysbakken/ (http://blogg.tv2.no/kjetilloset/2013/03/15/dette-er-velgerne-som-snur-ryggen-til-lysbakken/)

Yeah, I guessed there would be significant churn (not a bad thing - I envy your PR systems), thanks for the info (annoyingly it includes 2005 polling, as if to remind you they'd already halved at the 2005 general election). The swing from Labour to Tories looks likely to have outweighed any incoming SV defectors. I wonder if much of the movement now is informed by the possibility of shrinking past the threshold.

Norwegian polls are quite volatile at the moment, this one from Norstat for the newspaper Vårt Land from 2/5  has PP +20% and Labour almost closing the gap to the Conservatives.

Red 1,1

Socialist Left 4,3

Labour 28,3

Center 4,7

Greens 1,2

Liberals 3,9

Christin Peoples Party 5,5

Conservatives 29,6

PP 20,5

Others  0,8


A majority of 89 seats to PP + Conservatives. The Liberals is below the threshold and SL is getting dangerously close. Labour has mobilized a lot of "non-voters" and gained a bit from PP and Conservatives, but PP gets their votes back from other parties. Soc. Left has lost 2,3% from the last Norstat poll.

EDIT: I am mainly posting this in the hope that one of our Norwegian posters can explain why PP is bouncing up and down in the polls at the moment. It looks puzzling to me.

Probably just due to bad polling. Nothing has happened that would make them gain 5 points one day and then drop 5 days later. As to why the polls differ so much, I have no good answer, but as you can see from this link, wlidly fluctuating polls are nothing new for PP   --> http://www.aardal.info/hi_lo.pdf

Any chance of a Hoyre/Centre/Christians/Venstre government, as opposed to Hoyre/Progress? Center doesn't seem to be too inextricably tied to the left.

It wouldn't be the first time Høyre entered into such a coalition. The government of Per Borten (1965-1971) consisted of those parties. And the last center-right government (2001-2005) consisted of KrF/Venstre/Høyre.

In today’s climate however it is almost impossible to imagine a government of the right with SP (Center). They are too far to the left on economic issues, at least for Høyre and Venstre.

A Høyre/KrF/Venstre government is possible, and I know that a lot of the Old Guard in Høyre would prefer that to a government with FrP (Progress). I still think it is unlikely though, mostly because FrP wouldn’t go along with it.

Venstres Liberal views on drugs and their refugee policy has also been mentioned as areas that may be a problem for Høyre (and Progress, of course).

I think Venstre knows that they’re not going to get a more liberal immigration policy. Høyre doesn’t really want it, and FrP certainly don’t. If they play their cards right they might get something in return for supporting more strict immigration policies. For example some reforms in the government’s drug policy, environmental policies (which Høyre also want) and maybe some more funds for foreign aid.
But the main dividing lines between the three parties mentioned are on immigration and the environment. They agree on a whole host of other issues.

Its clear that they could strike a deal, but its still a problematic constellation in many ways.

Venste is also "softies" on law and order issues, at least relatively speaking. That could pose a problem too.

Norwegian Venstre and the kind of issues that separates them from the other centre-right parties is closely parallel to Radikale Venstre in Denmark, so I tend to assume that PP hates Venstre the same way DPP hates Radikale Venstre and wouldnt want to work with them in any context, but this may be a false comparison.

How do you see the PP/Venstre relationship?

Your assumption is partly correct. FrP do probably hate Venstre in a very simillar way to the DF/RV relationship. However, FrP is desperate to enter government and would happily join a coalition government with Venstre if necessary. Until recently though FrP's feelings on this has not mattered much, seeing as Venstre used to be adamantly against the thought of a coalition with them. This has now changed though, and Venstre's leadership no longer rules out coalitioning with FrP.

The relationship is still obviously not very good, but seems less antagonistic than under the former Venstre leader Sponheim, who became enemy number 1. for FrP after the 2009 election. That was when Sponheim launched the slogan "Heller Jens enn Jensen" (rather Jens than Jensen)

A slogan you'd hope any sane right-winger could get behind...

I can’t find a link in english for this, but Jens Stoltenberg has recently announced that his government will reform the Norwegian tax code the next couple of years. There are few details as of yet, but it will probably include substantial cuts in the corporate tax rate.

I am curious as to how he intends to do this. One of the most important features of the Norwegian tax code since 1992 is so called “neutrality”. That means that the marginal tax rates are supposed to be pretty much the same, regardless of whether the income derives from employment, capital (investments) or commerce. It will be difficult to substantially cut the corporate tax rate and still retain this neutrality, unless they intend to cut taxes across the board, which I don’t think they really want.

From a political standpoint it is also interesting. It looks like Stoltenberg wants to edge out Høyre from the right on economic issues, where Høyre have turned to the center in last few years. It might also be a signal that SV won’t be a part of the government during the next four years, even if the left actually wins the election.

Just put up a Norwegian link. We are quite a few Scandinavians and Google Translate is an option for the rest.

Too bad Norway is going to participate in the "race to the bottom" regarding corporate taxes. Everything gets much more complex and bureaucratic once you drop the neutrality principle.

No biggie, but since the plans for changing the tax system is not directly related to the coming election its general news and belongs in the Great Nordic Thread.

Here it is.

http://www.aftenposten.no/okonomi/Skattesatsene-skal-kuttes_-varsler-Stoltenberg-7201603.html

A few weeks ago he said that the rate definitely will be cut from 28 % where it is today, to 27 %. I wonder if they are going to do anything with taxation of dividends.

I wish we had that here in Britain, another suggestion to send on a postcard to Alec Salmond, although I'm not sure he'd be too keen on the kind of rates Norway has thouhg

There is a new poll out. I will translate the result in a few hours.

http://www.nettavisen.no/politikk/article3634968.ece

It is good news for the center-right, and very  bad news for the left.

Hmm.

The government has only 35% and the opposition has 60-65%.

I still don't know why exactly.

Norway's economy is doing relatively well, so why the backlash ?

The results are as following.

Labour (Ap) - 25,2 %
 
Socialist Left (SV) - 4,4 %

Center Party (Sp) - 5,0 %

The Conservatives (Høyre) - 32,0 %

The Progress Party (FrP) - 19,9 %

The Christian Democrats (KrF) - 5,1 %

The Liberals (Venstre) - 4,1 %

Red (Rødt) - 1,0 %

The Greens (Miljøpartiet de grønne) - 2,2 %

Others - 1,3 %

Tender Branson:

I don’t think anyone really knows why the government is doing so badly. I think a part of the explanation is that people are tired of them, after almost eight years in power. The current debate about gypsies probably also hurts them, especially Labour. The centre-right (at least FrP and Høyre) wants some sort of ban on begging. Labour is sort of all over the place on that question. Another reason is that a part of the Labour base is upset with the government, following the deportation of some asylum seekers (some of whom were children).

For the last few decades a solid economy has been no guarantee for reelection for any government in Norway. The centre-right lost the election in 2005, even though the economy was doing great. That was also the case for Torbjørn Jaglands Labour government in 1997.

The basics are: Government fatigue after 8 years, scandals, negative media coverage and Hoyre becoming more centrist combined with core supporters losing enthusiasm for the government (demobilization), which is of course also a classic fatigue sign.

One aspect I hadn't seen before: Like most SDs in Europe Ap is losing workers. In a poll cited Labours support in the industrial workers union Fellesforbundet is down from 58% to 43%. That's is still quite good compared with other northern European countries, but 49% of Fellesforbundets members would vote centre-right.

The high overall costs in Norway make it tough for the export industry. Norways economy is running on oil, so to speak, and that is hurting other sectors.

Curious about two reasons mentioned in the article: lack of anti-begging law (Stoltenberg seen as too soft?) and sending out asylum seeking children.

Thx, that explains a lot.

On the topic of the gypsies:

We have that "problem" here as well. Only with the difference that Norway could actually deport those people, while we cannot (most of them are Romanian/Bulgarian citizens, so the police needs to let them stay).

Can you even afford live in Norway with begging alone ? Where do they live ? Is it the same as here where they look for some run-down empty houses where they live in inhumane conditions, until they get chased away by infuriated locals or the police with arrest warrants if they are seen in these buildings again ?

Yes, I assume Labours policy on begging is hurting them especially much in the cities, where they have already lost a lot of voters to the Conservatives. The Conservatives have played their hand well on the issue, which splits the liberal and conservative wing of the party. They are in favour of a ban, but they don’t make a great deal out of it (except for their local politicians in Oslo). In that way they prevent FrP (who are also in favour of a ban) from making it into a wedge issue.

It should also be mentioned that the current state of SV and SP is a huge problem for Labour. Even if Labour manages to repeat their results from 2009 (where they received somewhere around 35% of the vote), they will still lose if SV and SP are stuck at 4% each. If just one of their coalition partners drops below the 4% threshold, it is game over for the fovernment.

It looks to me like it's game over already now.

Or has any incumbent Norway government ever made up a 25-30% deficit in just 3 months ?

Never say never in the world of politics.

Norwegians have a way of changing minds quickly when it comes to voting. And it's also important to note that governments that are unpopular mostly because people have grwon tired of them (which seems to be the major problem here) compared to actually being an out-right bad government tend to make very good recoveries in the election run-ups.

Just look at Denmark. Helle were suppouse to have a cake-walk, but it ended up being a rather narrow victory in the end. I fully expect the centre-right to win here, but it's not going to be this big of a victory.   

Yes, it is certainly game over by now, and has been for a long time. No government has ever made up such a deficit in less than three months, as far as I know. There is no chance whatsoever that the government regain their majority in parliament. Looking at Swedish Chef's example, it should be noted that the Centre-Left in Denmark only had a lead of 10% (at the most) three months before that election. So the Norwegian government needs a swing that is basically twice as big.

It is however still unclear what kind of government the country will have after the election. The most likely alternatives are (not ranked):

1. Høyre/FrP (Will probably happen if these two get a majority alone)
2. Høyre/KrF/Venstre (repeat of Bondevik II, though with Høyre in a much more dominant role. Could well happen if FrP has a poor result)
3. Høyre/FrP/KrF/Venstre (A strongish FrP, but without a majority for FrP+Høyre could see this happen)
4. Høyre alone

All other combinations are completely unlikely, as far as I can see.

Will Venstre really sit in the same government as Frp?
Wouldn't a Höyre/Frp/KrF government be possible if those three have a majority together?

Venstre are still very sceptical of ruling with FrP, particularly to to their massive differences regarding immigration and enviromental politics. But they have not ruled it out, unlike what they did in 2009.
I do think it is a possibility, but it would undoubtedly be tough for Venstre.

I think KrF would demand the inclusion of Venstre even if they are not needed for a parliamentary majority, in order to "balance" the right-wing lean of such a government (In 2001, Venstre was not needed for a parliamentary majority - they only had 2 MPs, just like today - but were still included in government).
Also, it would be in the strategic interest of Høyre to include Venstre as well, to prevent them from potentially co-operating with the Red-Gren "bloc", which could hurt the Centre-Right's chances in the next election.

I agree with Lurker. It is probably over for the government. I can’t see how they can catch up with the centre-right, barring some sort of black swan event, or the complete implosion of the relationship between the parties on the right.

 I wouldn’t rule out a government consisting of Høyre, KrF and FrP, but it is very unlikely. First of all because KrF wouldn’t be comfortable sitting alongside Høyre and FrP in government.  At the very least they would want Venstre in the government with them, as Lurker mentioned. As I’ve said in another thread, it would probably be easier for Høyre and FrP to work with Venstre in government, as the three parties agree on a lot of issues. The issues that define KrF as a party of the centre-right are mostly social questions like abortion, church and gay marriage, which are pretty irrelevant in the current political climate in Norway. On most other issues they could just as well work with Labour, the Centre party and SV (if SV shed some of the anticlerical rhetoric). 

So, what seems to be the likely narrative of this campaign from now until election day? Is it even  possible for the government to mobilize and close in on the opposition at this point, at least enough so to deny the Hoyre/FrP an overall majority? Or is this a done deal?

Thankfully it looks like a done deal

They've pulled off some impressive comeback efforts in recent elections, but seem to be too far behind for that to be realistic this time round. It's a shame, but they'll be back before long.

Indeed, Norwegians love switching government. As opposed to Sweden who loves to reelect it's governments. (forever and ever) 

The most likely narrative for the campaign through the summer and early autumn will be for Høyre to say as little as possible about actual policy, as to avoid driving away the voters they have borrowed from FrP and AP.

AP will try to present Høyre and FrP as extremists that want to close down the public schools and the hospitals. The voters won’t believe them of course, since there is no basis in the claim whatsoever. FrP and Høyre support basically all the welfare programs that AP supports.

AP is also busy talking down the Norwegian economy, to scare people from voting for Høyre and FrP. That AP is the only party that can ensure stability, etc.

http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/iriks/politikk/Stoltenberg--Krisen-slar-inn-i-norsk-okonomi-7235251.html

I don't think Stoltenberg will get any traction on this though. People have too much confidence in Høyres ability to manage the economy.

FrP will try to win back some of their former voters, maybe over the issue of immigration and

gypsies. But they will not go too far, since they don’t want to scare away Høyre.

Sibboleth:
I think you are right. The left will probably be back in four years. I have absolutely no confidence in Erna Solbergs or Høyres ability to create a lasting coalition.

Is there a (remote) chance Stoltenberg could hang on as head of some sort of "grand coalition"? Maybe if AP emerges as strongest party and the right-wing parties can't agree on a coalition deal?

That is extremely unlikely. I could imagine some sort of grand coalition in the event of a serious economic crisis. Let’s say that the oil price plummets and the oil service industry collapses, with unemployment reaching 10% or more. Then I could see AP, Høyre and maybe Venstre, KrF and SP forming a coalition. They might even allow Stoltenberg to be prime minister.

If the parties on the right can’t form a coalition, the most likely outcome is that Høyre will form a government on their own, with support from KrF, Venstre and FrP in parliament. That is actually very likely, if Høyre ends up with more than 25 to 30% of the vote.

There is an interesting debate going on, about what the parties of the left should do if they lose the election this fall.

This Saturday, the LO-leader Gerd Kristiansen told the newspaper Klassekampen that SP, SV and AP should build on the current red-green coalition, even if they lose the election.

Several important figures in SP have rejected this. This should come as a surprise to no one. SP have usually thrived in the role as a dealmaker (“hestehandler”), that can cooperate with both the left and the right, in return for concessions on issues relating to agricultural policy. It will be difficult to do this if they are too closely attached to SV and AP whilst in opposition. Another important factor is that SP doesn’t define itself as a party of the left, at least not the same way as AP and SV does.

I suspect that SV also would like to create some distance from AP. SV is at its lowest level of support since the 1980s, and they might not even make the four percent threshold next election. From a political perspective, there is little for them to gain by binding themselves to APs positions on energy, immigration, Europe and taxes for the next four years.


http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/iriks/politikk/Sentrale-Sp-politikere-apner-for-a-vrake-SV-og-Ap-7238623.html

In Norway there are really huge regional differences. Mainly three areas tend to vote massively conservative; the southern & western regions (which are traditionally overwhelmed by Christian conservatives) as well as Greater Oslos (mostly the richer suburbs + the rich, western part of downtown/city of Oslo). Most of the rest of Norway, including all of the north, tend to lean more or less left. The rural east and the entire north vote massively for the Labour Party, as well as, to a lesser degree, Socialistic Left and the remains of the Farmers' Party (today called the Center Party).

It's interesting to see trends usually start in the capital though. While the Progress Party started to rise in numbers, during the 80ies and 90ies, their domain was mainly in Oslo. They had very little support in the rest of the country. However, for each consecutive election, this started to change more and more. Today it's actually the opposite way around; the party has massive support throughout the country, but Oslo is close to be their worst showing in the nation. Thus, to look for trends, one should primarily focus on the votes in the capital. It will probably tell us a whole lot of what the future holds. The most recent trend is probably that the environmentalists of the Environment Party The Greens (Miljøpartiet De Grønne) has started to gain a hold in a selected few cities, predominantly in Oslo & Trondheim. Soon we will know if this trend will continue even in this election. Their sister parties have already enjoyed huge success in several European countries including Sweden, Germany and France.

Probably. The only exception might be if Labour would do an amazing election campaign, and end up With 10%+ more votes than the Conservatives. Then I guess Jens might try to propose to the centre, With some kind of Ap/KrF/Sp coalition, possibly even include Venstre. I can see KrF accepting it, but Venstre would probably not be too happy, despite them being a socially very liberal party, unlike KrF.

In the last few elections, Jens has been by far the best campaigner of the lot, so it should definitely not be impossible to close in on the lead. However the right has an ace in hand this time around which they didn't back in 2009, that they will appear much more united in the eyes of the electorate, which probably was what cost them the victory last time around.

There are just a few weeks left until the election, so I thought I should give the forum an update as to how everything is progressing so far.

The average from four different polling firms produces this average for July.

Høyre: 32,6 %
Arbeiderpartiet: 28,2 %
FrP: 14,2 %
Venstre: 5,6 %
KrF: 5,3 %
SP: 4,5 %
SV: 3, 8%
MdG: 2,6 %
Rødt: 1,8%

In other words, not much have changed since last month. The parties of the right are on their way towards a landslide victory.

The three most interesting developments these last months (as I see it) are as following.
 
1)   The rise of MdG. MdG stands for Miljøpartiet de Grønne. It is an environmentalist party. They gained a few seats in the last local election (2011), but they have never had a real presence in national politics. They might be able to get one of the seats in Stortinget (parliament) for Oslo.
2)   SV is doing really badly now. If this downward spiral continues they will not be able to break the 4%-threshold, and they will probably be reduced to a single seat (in Oslo). If this should occur, the Stoltenberg government will lose either way.
3)   It appears like KrF and Venstre appear to have stabilized above 4%. That is of course good news for them, and probably good news for the rest of the center right, as they might feel less of a need to distance themselves from Høyre and FrP. 

Another Norwegian here, my two cents:

1. Høyre becoming the largest party would be a near-revolution. I don't think it will happen this time, partly because of Høyre having to back down from some of their policies (they had to back down from their promise that abolishing the wealth tax would not mean that certain millionaires would end up paying no taxes), and partly because Ap have such a large mass of organizations, campaigners and voters to mobilize.

2. Miljøpartiet will be in big trouble once the other parties really get going. Many of their policies would require massive spending, and many of their politicians are inexperienced. They willl have a lot of trouble answering questions from the bigger parties.

3. I think SV and Sp will end up above the election threshold. This, however, will not be enough to save the Stoltenberg government. Nor will a single Rødt representative in Oslo.

4. Arbeiderpartiet losing the election being a pity? Not at all. They have acted arrogant, particularly after the July 22 attacks, and have spent the entire election campaign so far warning about how terrible Norwegian society will become should the right win.

Question for the Norwegian posters:

How many parties are running exactly and where are they running ?

Or do all parties run Norway-wide ?

The forum is stubbornly refusing to allow me to post links, so I will instead write it down:

Arbeiderpartiet, De Kristne, Demokratene, Fremskrittspartiet, Høyre, Kristelig Folkeparti, Kystpartiet, Miljøpartiet, Piratpartiet, Rødt, Senterpartiet, Sosialistisk Venstreparti and Venstre are running in all counties/constituencies (Ap, Frp, H, KrF, Sp, SV and V are represented in Parliament today)

Det Liberale Folkepartiet (libertarians), Kristent Samlingsparti (fundamentalist Christians), Norges Kommunistiske Parti (communists), Pensjonistpartiet (senior citizens) and Samfunnspartiet (anarchists) are running in some constituencies, but not all.

Folkeliste mot Oljeboring (People's List Against Oil Drilling, Nordland), Folkemakten (People's Power, direct democracy party, Hordaland) and Sykehus til Alta (Hospital to Alta, Finnmark) are only running in a single constituency.

In total, 13 parties will be on the ballot in all constituencies and in total 21 parties will contest the election.

They're still around?
What does that mean?

You need 20 posts to post links.

Kystpartiet are still around, I forget if Steinar Bastesen is a member or if they expelled him for the third time.

Samfunnspartiet simply means Society Party. They've gained most of their reputation for putting random celebrities on their lists because, under Norwegian law, you cannot refuse a nomination to Parliament just because you don't want to...

lol, that's an ... interesting ... law.

Indeed. This is part of their list in my home county of Akershus:
2. Gunhild Anker Stordalen (wife of hotel mogul Petter Stordalen)
3. Tor Erling Staff (a literal devil's advocate, lawyer who often quite controversially defends sex offenders etc.)
5. Alex Rosén (comedian/musician)
9. Vendela Kirsebom (model)
10. Aylar Lie (glamour model)
12. Pia Haraldsen (journalist/satirist)
13. Katrine Moholt (singer)
14. Dorthe Skappel (TV hostess)
15. Ole Paus (musician)
16. Brynjar Meling (lawyer)
18. and 19. Johan Golden and Atle Antonsen (comedians)

...none of these people have actually declared themselves as candidates, but should one of them get elected (Whereupon a flight of pigs shall be cleared for takeoff at Oslo Airport), they will have to take a seat in Parliament. It's ridiculous.

Indeed they are. Kystpartiet is actually sort of popular in certain parts of the hard right, because they are anti-immigration, as well as being anti-EU (which FrP isn’t).

I think Viewfromthenorth have covered this well. One thing that deserves a mention though is that KrF (the Christian Democrats) didn't use to run Norway-wide before 1945. Before the Second World War they usually just put up candidates in the Bible Belt region, which used to constituencies in the south, the southwest and the west. And that's still their strongest areas.

The south and the southwest of Norway have always stood out politically and culturally. The politics there were defined by the so called counter-culture movements, like language (nynorsk vs. bokmål/riksmål), evangelical Protestantism and prohibition of alcohol. Høyre and Arbeiderpartiet used to be a lot weaker in this region than in the rest of the country.

Slightly off-topic, but it looks like there are now four Norwegian posters in this place,  all of whom have joined recently. Not bad - we should demand our own avatar. ;)

Yes, indeed.

And it has been suggested for a while now, but Dave Leip has not included them so far:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=172422.0

You have two former colonial powers' avatars to choose from, so you're pretty well covered. ;D

True. Three if we're counting Germany. ;)

Historical turnout chart:

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It was relatively high until ca. 1990, then started to drop. Same story like here.

Same as in most western countries, really. I expext a small increase for the same reason as the climbs in 1997 and 2005: a chance for a change of government. Also Arbeiderpartiet will be pulling off a massive panic mobilization if things don't improve soon.

Looks like it ain't over yet !

New Gallup poll shows the government gaining ground:

http://politisk.tv2.no/spesial/partibarometeret/maalinger/10557

With all due respect to the pollsters, this is not what the media is making it out to be. It's a single poll, taken at a time when a disproportionate amount of the country is still on vacation. Also, both V and KrF are under the threshold by less than half a percent: in other words, their falls are well within the margin of error. Even if the margin of error only went to Høyre, the amount of seats Høyre loses by dropping 0,7% is far lower than what V and KrF gain by going above 4,0%. Also, MdG is disproportionately large since they haven't actually had to answer questions about their policies yet.

It's a warning shot to the opposition parties, but by no means a turnaround unto itself. A very professionally conducted poll, however, and TV2 has explained to the viewers what the margin of error implies in this poll etc much better than they usually would.

(My sympathies lie with the Liberal Party and they are also the party I will likely cast my vote for at my local library in Bærum on September 9. Just so you know why I'm slightly partisan here)

Venstre seems to be ideologically similar to our NEOS party, according to their English brochure:

http://www.venstre.no/files/sentralt/valgmateriell/hovedbrosjyre_engelsk_web.pdf


These are about the same slogans that NEOS has on the frontpage of their website.

I agree with you about the poll. It seems unlikely that Venstre and KrF are both below the threshold, when most other polls have them somewhere between 5 and 6 %.

I have always wondered why Venstre isn’t doing any better. They have a platform well suited to appeal to the urban middle class. I think a lot of the problem is the party’s politicians, at least on the national level. Considering how Høyre have moved towards the center ground, there are issues (like spending and taxation) where Venstre could actually edge them out from the right.

As you say, the lack of well-known and popular leaders is a problem for them (I bet the majority of the population have no clue who Skei Grande is, for instance).

Another problem though is that they have no clear profile, no issues that clearly define them in the eyes of the voters, unlike all the other parties. Where KrF has moral conservativism/religious values, Sp has decentralization/Anti-EU, FrP has tough on immigration/crime, Høyre has lower taxes and so on. Venstre has IMO a lack of "identity", and this is could be a reason for their lack of success.

Another new poll gives another result.
Loo at this and you see them combined:
http://www.pollofpolls.no/?cmd=Stortinget&do=snitt&yw=201308

Yet another poll shows a significant lead for H+FRP+KRF+V.
http://www.pollofpolls.no/?cmd=Stortinget&do=snitt&yw=201308

Three polls now in August. The main difference since july is that V looses and SP gains. V is close to the barrier. MDG is gaining. H+FRP does not have a majority anymore.

H 55 FRP 29 = 84 (85 is needed)
KRF 9 V 7
AP 50 SP 10 SV 8 = 68
Rödt 1

CR 100
CL 69

The new Norstat poll gives the best combined result for Høyre+Frp that I can ever remember to have seen. 50,6% and 90/169 seats.

The poll does seem a bit of an outlier though, as Frp share of the right-wing vote is much higher than in most polls, with Norstat giving them 20,9%.

With such a result, I think Frp would have pretty good bargaining cards against Høyre, and could probably demand one of the "big three" posts in the government.

Yeah, that seems a bit high for FrP. Most of the other polls the last months have them at 14-15 %. They might gain some percentages during the election campaign, but I don’t think they will get 20 %. I wouldn’t be surprised if they demanded one of the big three either way. The ministry of finance is the most likely.

Former Prime Minister Thorbjørn Jagland says he feels Ap no longer wants to win the election, they're solely focused on being the largest party. I happen to be in agreement, for once. This is actually a somewhat counterproductive strategy, since Ap on 30% instead of 29% will gain fewer seats than SV on 4,5% instead of 3,5%

Meanwhile, a new poll for Nationen and Klassekampen puts SV under the 4% threshold and gives Høyre and FrP alone 89 seats.

Also, Høyre has proposed to increase patient contributions for minor operations. They apparently feel safe enough to throw out unpopular measures. They also want all patients to be able to choose between public and private healthcare. FrP were skeptical at first, but changed their mind when they realized it would mean that "handlingsregelen" (the rule that we can only use the interest from the state pension fund) is dead.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23655675

I think this is my favourite publicity stunt ever.

If I got into a taxi and found David Cameron driving I would never be this convivial.

Stephen Harper driving a taxi would be... awkward.

Who is the woman in the red dress ? A minister ? Or Stoltenberg's wife ?

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It's Minister of Culture Hadia Tajik from Ap. The first Muslim minister in Norway, and the youngest ever as well. She's only 30 years old so probably a bit too young for Stoltenberg :)

The two others are the leaders of the other government parties. Audun Lysbakken from Sv and Liv Signe Navarsete from Sp

Indeed. There are people that want to see Hadia Tajik as the Labour party leader at some point in the future. Obviously she will not be Stoltenbergs successor (as she is a bit to young), but she might emerge as a candidate after Trond Giske or Jonas Gahr Støre. First she will need experience from a "heavier" post than Minister of Culture.

OMG!

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Really cute! Almost makes it a bit sad his party might end up out of parliament. [/shallowness]

I wouldn't be certain that she'll be too young, though. Many insiders are now claiming that Stoltenberg will still lead Arbeiderpartiet in 2017. If so, and if he wins then (many if's, but still), he'll probably stay for some years after that. She'd still be quite young, but could be a strong candidate, IMO.

That really depends on whether or not they win the election next month. I can imagine Stoltenberg staying on as Prime Minister to 2017, but it is very unlikely that he will want to serve as the leader of Arbeiderpartiet in opposition. Since they will probably be out of office in a few months, they will need to think about a leader post-Stoltenberg. And it probably wont be Hadija Tajik, at least for eight-ten years.


Of the younger members of AP, can you think of other possible future contenders for the leadership? There is of course Anniken Huitfeldt, Annette Trettebergstuen and maybe even Eskild Pedersen.

Every TV channel here in Spain is talking about the taxi driver :)

I would have thought the same myself, that Stoltenberg would not stay on as leader of the opposition, but after reading some recent articles I think he may continue as leader. While the press always talk about him going for an international "top job", it's not like there are many of those available at the moment. If he were to go now though, I guess Støre would be the only possible replacement for Ap. If he were to decline, I have no idea who the favourite would be.

As for young leaders, it seems like Torgeir Micaelsen is a rising star, becoming head of the finance comittee at the age of 30. I think Huitfeldt is a bit too bland and not charismatic enough to become leader - then again, these type of things doesn't seem to matter as much here as in some other countries. And of course, Tajjik would probably be a very strong candidate, were she ever to run, as she has the perfect "profile": Young, female, immigrant, very ambitious and hard-working. And, just like Brundtland, her partner is a politician from Høyre, showing that she's skilled at bipartisanship. ;)

Not an immigrant, but Norway-born ... ;)

If Eskil Pedersen becomes leader Arbeiderpartiet will be polling in the teens in no time. If Jens should resign after the election, I predict a brief power struggle between Støre and Giske, with Giske managing to politically self-destruct because he's too far to the left.


In Norway the situation is like this:
I am born to an American mother and Norwegian father. My mother is naturally an immigrant, but I am considered Norwegian.
A Pakistani, Turk or for that matter a Pole who has resided here for four generations, on the other hand...

So Tajik is still an "immigrant" in many people's eyes, as will be the case for any children she has.

Yeah,"immigrant background"/ "second generation immigrant" would have been better. The point still stands though. ;)

Scandinavia sure has a lot going for it as far as the hotness/cuteness of its male politicians goes.  Between him and Gustav Fridolin, especially.  And Stoltenberg was pretty good when he was younger. 

Yeah, this is a funny, albeit interesting publicity stunt.  Hollands is dull enough that I could see him being able to do it.  With Obama, his voice is so easily recognized that he wouldn't get very far.  And Kevin Rudd would be like Harper and Faymann: painfully awkward. 

Austrian TV news is running the Stoltenberg taxi story up and down these days ...

And because I watched some of it, I now know that Chancellor Faymann actually worked as a taxi driver for 1 year after his high-school exams ... :)

Big story here in Germany as well, and used as obvious contrast to our political leaders.

What do you Norwegians think will be the implications? Will it boost the AP votes, and if so, to where?

Got on the news here as well.

Well moves like this tend to be more about perception and contrast with other leaders than immediate bounces in the poll.

So far only really Venstre out in force with election posters. Trying to enter people's memories nice and early, I guess.

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"We focus on education" with a picture of party leader Trine Skei Grande.

Have they always used green as their colour, or is that new?

They have been using the color green at least for a few elections, maybe more. Environmental issues became salient in Norway from the late eighties an onward, and Venstre have always tried to profile themselves as the “green” party. As well has SV (and SP to a certain extent).

So, I heard something about the taxi customers having been paid or something? Did that become a thing?

Also, I heard that culture minister wants to give arranged marriages similar status to regular ones. Is this true and if so, is it controversial?

The taxi thing: Nobody cares. VG tried to make a thing out of it for a couple of days, but didn't really get any response.

Yes, Tajik has indeed defended arranged marriages. This caused much debate, but not nearly the controversy you'd have expected. Interestingly, many feminists seem to support Tajik's views on arranged marriages, which I find strange to say the least.

There are a lot of interesting developments in the political landscape, just a little more than three weeks before the election.

The current average from the August polls is as following:

Rødt: 1, 9 %
SV: 4, 2 %
AP: 28, 3 %
SP: 5, 6 %.
MDG: 3, 3 %
KrF: 5, 1 %
Venstre: 5%
Høyre: 31, 3%
FrP: 14 %

The left have gained some lost ground since July, mostly because SV are now above the four percent threshold, and SP are trending upwards. AP is currently stuck at a rather low level, so the whole Taxi-thing might not have worked as well for Stoltenberg as they thought.

Høyre are still on course for their best election since the 1980s, but they are slowly losing support. Both Venstre and KrF are somewhat down since July. In today’s edition of Aftenposten (Norway’s biggest newspaper) the leaders from both parties are warning against a Høyre-FrP government. It is probably a strategy to gin up their own supporters, who aren’t that keen on a rightwing government. Depending on how Høyre and FrP react, this might cause problems for the center-right ahead of the election. It is because of this sort of bickering that the Norwegian right haven’t been able to do anything substantial since Kåre Willoch was prime minister in the first half of the 1980s.

The Greens are gaining support at a rapid rate, and if they continue they will break the four percent threshold, and will get 7-8 representatives. Most of their voters come from AP, but also from Venstre and SV. That is of course bad news for SV and Venstre, as they can’t afford to lose that many voters.

Is there some kind of "election-meter" or "election-cabin", which is an online test with 20-40 questions to find out which Norwegian party fits you best ?

Preferably in English (or maybe you can post the link and translate the questions to English for us ?)

Thx ;)

The link is here. Unfortunately it is in Norwegian. There is a long and a short version. I will try to get the short version (30 questions)  translated in a day or two.

http://www.aftenposten.no/spesial/Finn-ditt-parti-for-stortingsvalget-2013-med-Aftenpostens-valgomat--7268044.html

H 42 %
Frp 40 %
V 35 %
Ap 31 %
KrF 29 %
Sp 25 %
MDG 17 %
R 14 %
SV 14 %

Pretty much as expected, but thought that the two first ones on my list would be the other way around. However, there were not really that many questions about immigration, law and order etc which I think might be the explanation. That would also explain why Venstre was somewhat higher than expected

Yeah, my impression is that most questions are along the axis of privatization - public ownership, and economic growth - environmentalism. There were rather few questions about immigration.

My results:

V - 28%
H - 26%
Frp - 25%
KrF - 22%
Sp - 21%
MdG - 16%
Ap - 16%
SV - 11%
R - 8%

No surprise in the ranking, but a bit shocked I agree so little with any of the parties.

For the past couple days, the election has partly been about the abundant rumors of SVs demise. A commentator in Bergens Tidende wrote about what he sees as a potential scenario: SV coming under the threshold and ending up with 0-1 seats in parliament. After that, there will be nothing left for the three wings of the party: the environmentalists leaving for MdG, the pragmatics making their way over to Ap, and the left-wingers gradually joining a more moderate Rødt. I find the scenario interestnig, but not entirely realistic.

I could never vote for SV, but I think the talk of the party's impending demise is a bit exaggerated. There is room to the left of AP, especially when the party is led by centrists like Stoltenberg, Støre and Eide. This room can’t be filled by Rødt (they are too incompetent and too far to the left), and MDG is too much of a one-trick-pony. There is no doubt that SV is in serious trouble, but I don’t think they are going away any time soon.

Walked by SVs election booth on Karl Johans gate (Oslos main street, Swedes may make as much fun as they wish of the fact that it's named after a Swedish king), told one of the party workers I hope they remained in Parliament but I wouldn't vote for them. He could only reply with a half-hearted "Well, then you'll have to contribute!". They're openly begging for tactical/sympathy votes...

Also had a nice conversation with the Pirate Party "Admiral" (leader). I initially asked him when their full electoral program would be published, because it's labelled as TBA on their website, he instead decided to fill me in on all of their direct democracy ideas. Turns out he can't answer a question either. :D

He was as much Norwegian as he was Swedish. :P It's not like he was born here, or spoke a single word of Swedish.

Though we elected him while you were conquered by him...   

Haha, well I can't deny it. :P A third of my friends worked in Norway this summer.

And we are very grateful for it. Most Norwegians find the Swedish workers very service minded and pleasant to deal with.

I think I have only met one guy who was angry at the Swedish guest workers, for taking jobs in the service sector. However, he was the sort of person very few people would think of hiring anyway, with or without the Swedes.

The newest daily VG poll show Høyre+FrP at just 42,9% - far from a parliamentary majority. Venstre and KrF both get 5,9%, leaving the center-right bloc at 54,7%. If this is the result, the only certainty is that Erna Solberg will become PM - what form of coalition we'll get is more unclear.

Interestingly, Miljøpartiet De Grønne is now above the 4% treshold (as are all the current parliamentary parties).

The VG poll is really interesting, as it includes a lot of other information as well. For example what percentages the parties get in the different regions of the country. The North is as usual Høyres weakest area, with 25 % support for the party. More surprisingly Western Norway is where the party is doing best, with 32% of the vote. I assumed their strongest area would be Oslo and the Southeast in general.

Maybe they're picking up SP's losses...

Link?

Here's a link.:


http://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/valg-2013/artikkel.php?artid=10133011  (http://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/valg-2013/artikkel.php?artid=10133011)


By SP you presumably mean Senterpartiet. If so, no. First of all, their "base" and Høyre's base are very different, and secondly SP are at the same level of support as they were in the last election. A large number of the new Høyre voters in Western Norway would probably be former FrP voters (whose downslide in the West has coincided with Høyre's success.) They will also have captured quite a few who voted AP in the last election.

MDG 36%
SV     31%
R       30%
SP     29%
AP     28%
KrF    28%
V        27%
H        23%
FrP     10%

not that I'm in Norway though, answered don't know to a few

VG has been running daily opinion polls lately and today it went nuts:

H 29%
Ap 28.6%
FrP 14.6%
V 7.3% (!!!!)
KrF 5.1%
Sp 4.9%
MdG 4.1%
SV 3.5%
Rødt 1.2%
Others 1.7%

Quite an unrealistic result for Venstre of course, but it could be the beginning of something.

FrP: 47%
H: 44%
KrF: 37%

Everything else quite low. I didn't bother choosing what issues were important to me, but I imagine KrF would do better under that model.

Venstre will probably break 4% this time, but 7% seem a bit high. SV should also be above 4%. That poll is bad news for AP too. With just a couple of weeks left to go, they should at least be bigger than Høyre.

today's poll has venstre back to normal, and AP just ahead, and both SV and MdG above the threshold*

Ap    28.7%
H      27.7%
FrP   15.2%
V         5.9%
KrF     5.8%
Sp      5.6%
MdG  4.2%
SV      4.0%
Rødt   1.4%
Others 1.4%

*tbh though, on everything apart from FrP coming third, these polls just tell me that everything is too close to call

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Høyre has always gone for minimalistic election posters, but this year they also appear to like the idea of subtle themes. The arrow points to the right (Høyre simply means "right") and the text reads "Better schools". This, of course, ignores the fact that there are actually quite a few people who can't tell the difference between left and right.

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7-Eleven has actually been running a rather nice campaign. They have ads on the subway listing the alternatives to democracy, and these stands where they offer a free coffee while you decide what to vote for. This one is conviniently located next to an early voting station.

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Last but not least, Litago, which is a brand of yoghurts and flavored milk, has been running a downright embarrassing parody campaign. This poster reads "Vote for the cow, get the violin back", which is a pun on a well-known childrens song.

*Insert obvious Stupid Norwegians joke here*

One would hope that as the poster is next to a road, the people driving cars on that road does know which side of the road they're on... and thus should know the difference.   

Actually, the first place I heard of this problem for anyone but small children was in...you guessed it, Sweden ;)

Mind to share some of these jokes with us? 8)

A Norwegian electrician got a phone call from an old lady asking him to fix her broken doorbell. Swift at work the Norwegian drove away to attend to the problem immediatley. However it was not long before he returned disgruntled. His collegue asked him why he had returned so quckily, and was told that he had rung on the door seven times yet no one had come and opened.   

A Swedish math professor was working at Oslo University. After having graded the latest exams he announced to his Norwegian students that he'd had no choice but to fail 80% of them, at which point one of the brighter students shouted: "That's not even possible, we're not that many in this class."

It was a great tragedy in  Bergen the day the library had to close, after a break-in where the culprits had stolen both books.       

What do you call an intelligent person in Norwegian?
Tourist

A big buff Norwegian was bragging in a bar that no Swede had ever been brave enough to tell a stupid Norwegian joke to his face. At which point a Swedish guy quipped that it wasn't lack of bravery so much as the fact that no Swede could be bothered to spend an hour explaining the joke for him. 

Once there was a blind Norwegian, a deaf Dane and a wheelchair bound Swede who came upon a magic cavern. They were granted one wish each when they entered the cavern. First the blind Norwegian entered. He wished to see again. When he came out, he said
-   I can see.

Then the deaf Dane went into the cave. He wanted to be able to hear. When he returned, he said
-   I can hear.

Then the wheelchair bound Swede rolled into the cave to make a wish. When he came out he said
-   Look mates, I’ve got two new wheels. (Titta kompisar, två nya hjul.)

A Swede, a Dane and a Norwegian was stranded together at a deserted island in the Pacific. After several months on the island the three's hope of ever being rescued was declining, until one day they came upon a magic lamp containing a genie. As the genie was freed he granted the three Scandinavians a wish wach.
The Swede asked to be returned to his family, and disappeared. The Dane asked for the same thing, and also disappeared.
The Norwegian looked around and said "Well I'm gonna get awfully lonely out here so I wish for the Swede and the Dane to come back."       

That one is even better in the post-USSR version - a Georgian, an Estonian and a Russian getting stranded, and the Russian finally saying "I wish my friends were back with me.."

Anyway - forgive my trolling attempt, let's get back to Norwegian politics...

I just read that you're not allowed to sell alcohol in Norway on election day, as to keep people from voting drunk. Very fascinating.

This is my last one.

Have you heard about the Swede who was invited to dinner by the Norwegian? When the Swede arrived at the house of the Norwegian there was a note on the door. This note read “I fooled you. I’m not home”. Then the Swede wrote a new note and placed it on the door. The Swedes note said “Haha, I fooled you. I was never here”.

But yeah. Vinmonopolet is closed, and the stores are not allowed to sell beer on Election Day. Since Election Day this year falls on a Monday, I think the Vinmonopolet and the stores will make a lot of money on Saturday, since they are closed on Sunday. 

I might actually have to post a Facebook status: "Husk at polet er stengt til tirsdag!"

As for the Swedish/Norwegian banter, a pretty good one came after Norway had inexplicably banned Monty Python's Life of Brian. The Swedish film poster had the tagline: "The movie so funny that it was banned in Norway" (Filmen som är så rolig att den blev förbjuden i Norge).

Here are the results of the 2013 Norwegian High School Election which was released just 4 hours ago. Practically every single high school in Norway take part in this quite unique kind of election, making some experts claim that it is the most profound/extensive school election or even non-official parliamentary election in the world. This year a near record number of students (mostly between the ages of 15 & 18) voted in the election; 178,000 students to be precise. That is only 1,366 votes less than in the record high turnout in 2009. All in all 81.1% of all students took part, the highest turnout ever. It is highly likely that the high turnout & the political commitment among this current generation of teenagers is due to the terrorist attacks in Oslo and Norway two years ago, which was aimed at the ruling political party, and in particular on their youth organisation.

So, here are the actual votes cast in the 2013 Norwegian High School Election:

1. Conservative Party (Høyre) - 28.3% (first time they've ever won this election)
2. Labour Party (Arbeiderpartiet) - 23.3%
3. Progress Party [far right] (Fremskrittspartiet) - 15.6%
4. Liberal Party (Venstre) - 6.6%
5. Socialist Left Party (SV) - 5.1%
6. Piracy Party (Piratpartiet) - 4.3% (basically the same kind of party as their Swedish sister party, for those familiar with them, basically wants laws to warmly embrace internet piracy)
7. Farmers' Party/Rural Party (Senterpartiet) - 4.0%
8. The Green Environmentalists (MDG) - 3.7%
9. Red [far left] (Rødt) - 3.7%
10. Christian People's Party (KrF) - 2.9%
11. The Christians [extremely conservative Christian party] (De Kristne) - 0.6%
12. Retirees' Party (Pensjonistpartiet) - 0.6%
13. Coastal Party [basically a party for fishermen & their allied] (Kystpartiet) - 0.5%
14. The Democrats [very far right] (Demokratene) - 0.3%
15. The Liberal People's Party [ideology somewhere between Liberal Party & Progress Party, 2nd pro-marihuana party besides The Greens] (Det Liberale Folkeparti) - 0.2%
16. Norwegian Communist Party (NKP) - 0.2%
17. United Christians Party [basically the same as The Christians, perhaps slighly less conservative/reactionary/old-fashioned?] (Kristent Samlingsparti) - 0.1%

The remaining four parties aren't even worth mentioning, they got 0.1% of the vote or less.

And these are the biggest winners and losers compared to the 2009 Norwegian High School Election.

Biggest winners:

1. Conservative Party: +12.1%
2. Piracy Party: +4.3%
3. The Green Environmentalists: +2.4%
4. The Christians: +0.6%
5. Liberal Party: +0.6%

Biggest losers:

1. Progress Party [far right, the 2011 terrorist was a member of this party]: -8.4%
2. Socialist Left Party: -5.2%
3. Farmers' Party/Rural Party: -1.8%
4. Red [far left]: -1.1%
5. Coastal Party: -0.9%
6. Christian People's Party: -0.8%
7. Retirees' Party: -0.6%
8. The Democrats [very far right]: -0.2%
9. Labour Party: -0.2%
10. Norwegian Communist Party: -0.1%
11. United Christians' Party: -0.1%

Way more losers this time than winners in other words. Basically every single party on the left side of the political spectrum (possibly with the exception of The Greens, though they so far have refused to choose political side) experience a loss of voters. Only two parties witness shifts of more than 6% one way or the other though; the big winners of this upcoming election clearly, the Conservative Party, which is on its way to do one of its strongest elections since the early 20th century [it was one of the two original parties in Norway back in the 19th century]. And the big loser being Progress Party, though it has to be said that this is still a strong election for the party. It is just that the 2009 election was by far their strongest election in that party's history. However, it is worth noticing that the party did really terrible among high school youths in the nation's capital, Oslo, where almost every single strong political wind starts. They got only 7.9% of the votes in Oslo, which is their 2nd worst high school showing ever, only beaten by the even more mediocre post-terrorist attack 2011 election result (though that wasn't a parliamentary election, but a regional one). It was in Oslo that the Progress Party once got a strong hold back in the 80ies and 90ies. Now, it is also the first region where they are experiencing heavy losses. Not only among teenagers, but among voters of all ages. One reason might be that big city voters are far more tolerant than voters in smaller towns and cities. Another reason is of course that a huge percentage of the population of Oslo are immigrants themselves, or children of immigrants (about 30%, the highest in the nation). The Progress Party is the only major anti-immigration party in Norway, and have had a long history of using very racist rhetoric, although they have become far more moderate during the last few years. At least when it comes to use of rhetorics, perhaps less when it comes to actual policy decisions? (They are highly likely to be part of the new post-election government, so time might tell.) Also, obviously, the party's politicians, and its leader in particular, had to drastically change their communication towards voters in general after it was revealed that the 2011 terrorist was one of their own, or had been an active member of the party just a few years prior.

Here a picture from the Conservatives' high school election monitoring (with the most likely future prime minister in blue):

()

So 0.6 % of Norwegian high school students plan to retire after their graduation? ;)

Something like that I guess. :D Either that or one of their grandparents must be their best friend. :P

This is actually the worst showing the Retirees' Party has received among high school students in years and years, believe it or not.

I love Scandanavia's random elections. I for one wish I could vote in a partisan church or school election :D

We have school mock elections too, but they aren't so well organised. I tried to rig one once.

Church elections aren't partisan (in that you vote for political parties) in Norway though, that's a Swedish thing. :P

School elections are very fun though, with organized debates at high schools featuring politicians (often youth politicians) from all the the parties.

For those who are interested, here are the results of the school elections by county: http://www.samfunnsveven.no/skolevalg/resultat/fylke/ (http://www.samfunnsveven.no/skolevalg/resultat/fylke/)
That website also shows the results from each school in Norway, though that won't be very interesting for non-Norwegians of course.

They look very mature. If they were held in Italy there would be a huge victory of extremist-populis parties like 5star movement.

They used to be won by the fringe parties (SV and FrP). Youth have become more moderate in recent years, though.

At my old high school (Valler), Venstre recieved 35,7%. FrP and SV recieved around 7,5% together.

The results usually follows the usual socio-economic factors, at least to some extent. So high schools in the Western parts of Oslo are usually strong for Høyre (and FrP a few years back), and high schools in rural areas, or immigrant heavy neighbourhoods usually go for Arbeiderpartiet.

There is usually a debate prior to the voting. This can skew the results a lot. Venstres extraordinary results at Valler (as mentioned by Viewfromthenorth) was probably the result of a very good performance by Venstre in the debate.

Anders Behring Breivik was a member of FrP from 1999 to 2004, so he had ceased being a member a long time before the attacks on 22. of july 2013.

And I don't think "far right" is actually a fitting label for FrP. Just as SV can't really be described as "far left".

Yeah, Frp was the largest party as recently as 2009.

Very surprising that Høyre didn't become the largest party at Valler, they are usually very dominant in Bærum

I wonder in which schools the parties got their best and worst results  - is this said anywhere? Handelsgym is Høyre's best school in Oslo, getting 63% of the vote there. Ulsrud seems to be APs best result with 67%.

I don't think there are any numbers out as to where the parties did best.

You basically have to piece that together from http://www.samfunnsveven.no/skolevalg

Yeah, it's kind of ridiculous to attach ABB to FrP. Other parties have less desirable elements in them as well.

LOL, look at the guy: At the moment the exit poll/result is announced, he starts to grope the girl's boobs ... Maybe she didn't even notice it, because of the joy.

;)

Do we? I don't remember ever doing one.

I remember seeing coverage of them on Newsround, never had one at my school, not until I was at sixth form college

Yeah, I didn't know this.

We had one in 2010, but I think it was a pretty independent thing.

Just when we all thought the campaign couldn't get any dumber: Norwegian users, go to 1881.no and search for Jens Stoltenberg or Erna Solberg.

I have a question about Norwegian politics...my understanding is that the Liberals or Venstre Party would ally themselves with the so-called bourgeois parties to form a right of centre coalition. There is no way for the right to government without including the ultra rightwing racist Progress party. How can the Liberal party which seems to be very socially liberal and environmentalist and pro-immigration and multiculturalism justify joining a government that would have to also include those kooks from the Progress party?
 

1. The Progress Party are not far-right nor explicitly racist.
2. Because they'll be getting some kind of power after this electino anyway and then it's better to try to limit their influence than trying to be in opposition against a party that has some support among other parties for almost all its policies.

I see a Canadian flag on your profile. The Progress Party is only slightly to the right of the Conservative Party over there, really.

There you go. :)

(I only considered schools at which at least 100 valid votes were cast.)

Best results for Høyre (Conservative Party):
62.5 %, Oslo handelsgymnasium (Oslo)
57.0 %, WANG Oslo/WANG Toppidrett Oslo (Oslo)
56.1 %, Akademiet videregående skole i Drammen (Drammen, Buskerud)
56.0 %, Wang Toppidrett Tønsberg (Tønsberg, Vestfold)
55.0 %, Oslo private gymnasium (Oslo)

Best results for Arbeiderpartiet (Labour Party):
66.5 %, Ulsrud videregående skole (Oslo)
56.5 %, Sofienberg videregående skole (Oslo)
53.4 %, Holtet videregående skole (Oslo)
53.2 %, Bjerke videregående skole (Oslo)
47.1 %, Etterstad videregående skole (Oslo)

Best results for Fremskrittspartiet (Progress Party):
62.9 %, Hadsel videregående skole, skolested Melbu (Hadsel, Nordland)
52.1 %, Norheimsund vidaregåande skule (Kvam, Hordaland)
49.3 %, Meldal videregående skole (Meldal, Sør-Trøndelag)
49.0 %, Stangnes videregående skole (Harstad, Troms)
46.6 %, Polarsirkelen videregående skole, avd. Kongsvegen (Rana, Nordland)

Best results for Venstre (Liberal Party):
35.7 %, Valler videregående skole (Bærum, Akershus)
29.4 %, Firda vidaregåande skule (Gloppen, Sogn og Fjordane)
26.2 %, Garnes vidaregåande skule (Bergen, Hordaland)
24.6 %, Knut Hamsun videregående skole (Hamarøy, Nordland)
23.9 %, Bergen Katedralskole (Bergen, Hordaland)

Best results for Sosialistisk Venstreparti (Socialist Left Party):
26.3 %, Fyrstikkalleen skole (Oslo)
25.4 %, Ski videregående skole (Ski, Akershus)
22.9 %, Vadsø videregående skole (Vadsø, Finnmark)
22.1 %, Inderøy videregående skole (Inderøy, Nord-Trøndelag)
21.8 %, Hartvig Nissens skole (Oslo)

Best results for Piratpartiet (Pirate Party):
12.5 %, Melhus videregående skole (Melhus, Sør-Trøndelag)
12.0 %, Fosen videregående skole (Bjugn, Sør-Trøndelag)
12.0 %, Meløy videregående skole, avd. Glomfjord (Meløy, Nordland)
11.7 %, Malvik videregående skole (Malvik, Sør-Trøndelag)
11.1 %, Andøy videregående skole (Andøy, Nordland)

Best results for Senterpartiet (Centre Party):
46.2 %, Mære landbruksskole (Steinkjer, Nord-Trøndelag)
37.4 %, Nord-Troms videregående skole (Nordreisa, Troms)
35.2 %, Val videregående skole (Nærøy, Nord-Trøndelag)
34.1 %, Årdal vidaregåande skule (Årdal, Sogn og Fjordane)
29.3 %, Meråker videregående skole (Meråker, Nord-Trøndelag)

Best results for Miljøpartiet De Grønne (Green Party):
31.1 %, Oslo By Steinerskole (Oslo)
14.5 %, Persbråten videregående skole (Oslo)
13.6 %, Hartvig Nissens skole (Oslo)
13.4 %, Stavanger katedralskole (Stavanger, Rogaland)
11.9 %, Bergen Katedralskole (Bergen, Hordaland)

Best results for Rødt (Red Party):
38.8 %, Nord-Gudbrandsdal vgs., avd. Otta (Sel, Oppland)
27.6 %, Bjørnholt skole (Oslo)
25.2 %, Breivika videregående skole (Tromsø, Troms)
24.9 %, Vinstra vidaregåande skule (Nord-Fron, Oppland)
22.1 %, Lena videregående skole (Østre Toten, Oppland)

Best results for Kristelig Folkeparti (Christian Democratic Party):
57.7 %, Drottningborg videregående skole (Grimstad, Aust-Agder)
56.8 %, Framnes kristne vidaregåande skule (Kvam, Hordaland)
54.8 %, Sygna vidaregåande skule (Balestrand, Sogn og Fjordane)
52.8 %, Tryggheim vidaregåande skole (Hå, Rogaland)
51.8 %, Lundeneset vidaregåande skole (Vindafjord, Rogaland)

Worst results for Høyre (Conservative Party):
1.9 %, Val videregående skole (Nærøy, Nord-Trøndelag)
3.8 %, Mære landbruksskole (Steinkjer, Nord-Trøndelag)
6.1 %, Bardufoss Høgtun videregående skole, avd. Høgtun (Målselv, Troms)
6.7 %, Hadsel videregående skole, skolested Melbu (Hadsel, Nordland)
7.4 %, Vinstra vidaregåande skule (Nord-Fron, Oppland)

Worst results for Arbeiderpartiet (Labour Party):
1.2 %, Lundeneset vidaregåande skole (Vindafjord, Rogaland)
1.6 %, Drottningborg videregående skole (Grimstad, Aust-Agder)
2.5 %, Framnes kristne vidaregåande skule (Kvam, Hordaland)
2.5 %, Oslo private gymnasium (Oslo)
2.8 %, KVS-Lyngdal (Lyngdal, Vest-Agder)

Worst results for Fremskrittspartiet (Progress Party):
1.0 %, Bergen Katedralskole (Bergen, Hordaland)
1.1 %, Firda vidaregåande skule (Gloppen, Sogn og Fjordane)
1.1 %, Oslo By Steinerskole (Oslo)
1.4 %, Stavanger katedralskole (Stavanger, Rogaland)
1.6 %, Lakselv videregående skole (Porsanger, Finnmark)

Danke! :)

Is my understanding correct that handelsgymnasium (Oslo, 62.5% Hoyre) is similar to the German "Wirtschaftsgymnasium", i.e. having a special curriculum focusing on accounting and finance? And the "Oslo By Steinerskole" (31.1% MDG) is probably named after antroposopher  Rudolf Steiner, and following Waldorf pedagogy, right? The "kristne" in "Framnes kristne vidaregåande skule (56.8% CDP) is easy to understand even for a foreigner. So, no surprises here.

As to the other schools, somebody minding to explain some patterns...

Your understanding is correct. These elections really tend to confirm stereotypes ;).

As for other patterns:

Høyre's best schools are all private schools, with the exception of Oslo Handelsgymnasium.

Arbeiderpartiet's best schools are mostly in the Eastern parts of Oslo. Oslo has historically (and still is to a large degree) been split politically between a West side dominated by Høyre  and East side dominated by Labour. The West is obviously the wealthier area, and the East more working class (and these days, has a much larger number of immigrants).

Senterpartiet's best school seems to have some connection to agriculture. Their best results are all in rural areas, far from the larger cities.

KRF's best results are all in Christian schools, run by (conservative) Missionary organization. Those are the only places where youth will vote KRF in such massive numbers.

As for SV, Venstre and FrP, I can't immediately see any clear patterns, though maybe some of our other resident Norwegians could tell.

The Conservative party in Canada is extremely rightwing by historical Canadian standards and for a country like Norway I would think that a party that is even slightly to the right of Canada's Conservatives would be almost "off the chart" and sort of Norwegian equivalent of France;s Front Nationale.

Why can't the Liberals form a front with other centrist parties like the Christian Democrats and the Centre party and announce they they will refuse to participate in any government that includes the Progress Party and insist that they not be allowed in the cabinet - and if Hoyre objects - the middle parties could always form some sort of "grand coalition" with the Labour party instead (sort of like how the SPD in Germany refuses to work with the Linke party or how both the SPO and OVP in Austria refuse to have anything to do with the Freedom Party.

Ah it wouldn't be a real Scandinavian election without DL coming on and complaining about the centre-right parties actions and political ideology. Makes me nostalgic for the good old Swedish election 2010 thread. Don't ya worry DL, next year around this time you'll be ranting about why people still vote for FP, and why Stockholm has turned so heavily to the right. I can't wait. :)

 

His view on Venstre cooperating with Frp is totally in line with Venstre's own view at the last election. :P
Though of course, they changed leaders since then. And I suppose four more years out of government has made them more accepting of making deals with Frp. Though their first choice is still a coalition with Krf and Høyre (which would be a minority government).

Venstres pattern is that those were all schools they sent parliamentary candidates to. ;)

As for the centrist parties, they face a choice between co-operating with FrP or not having any influence at all, period. Guess which hill they choose to die on.

Isn't the Progress Party in Norway the equivalent of the Sweden democrats in Sweden who are considered plutonium and taboo to have any dealings with...as far as I can tell the only real difference is that Progress got into parliament longer again Norway so I guess people have been lulled into accepting them as a civilized party.

Why can't the Liberals in Norway join a coalition with the Labour Party to keep the far right out of power, like the way the Radical Liberals in Denmark usually cooperate with the Social Democrats there to keep the Danish Progress party out of power? For that matter why not a "grand coalition of Labour, Hoyre and Ventre" that would let the opposition the two "bookends" of Progress and Socialist people's party? If the Norwegian Centre party can work with Labour, why not the Liberals?

The Norwegian FRP is in my opinion the least right-wing off the Scandinavian far right parties. FRP started as a tax protest/populist party in the seventies as the Danish FRP did. The danish FRP became the more nationalist and anti muslim. The swedish SD however grew out of the racist and extreme right BSS and Sverigepartiet. They call themseleves social conservatvie but many off the grassroots are still nationalist and there is a conflict there. The finnish PS is populist and somewhat nationalist but not that hardcore. Both PS and DF are memmbers off the Euroskpetic EFD but the Swedish SD is cooperting with the French FN and would join a far right group in EP.

From left to right
FRP (Norway) PS (Finland) DF (Denmark) SD (Sweden)

derstandard.at has a chart:

()

http://derstandard.at/1378248206824/Norwegen-Wechselstimmung-trotz-guter-Bilanz

Very well explained. Though I'd probably list DF to the right of SD, despite SD's more racist roots.



Because Scandinavia isn't Austria or Germany. Grand Coalitions only happens here if there's a World War. You know stuff like this DL, you've lived in Scandinavia for God's sake.

Progress just seem like massive Thatcherites to me, more UKIP than Nazi-like SD.

You could argue that way; it will be completely dependent on which criteria you choose. If you talk about general status with the other parties; i.e. if they are considered "toxic" for the other parties, then DF is probably the most left wing. If you look at the current state in the societies and what policies they are actually proposing, then you might be right in saying that DF is the most right-wing as Denmark has the tighest immigration rules of those countries currently. But then again, even the Danish Socialist People's Party would probably be regarded as racist and to the right of every non-SD Swedish party on immigration so I'm not sure how appropiate the latter method is.

My prediction:

29% Ap (-6%)
26% H (+9%)
15% FrP (-8%)
  7% KrF (+1%)   
  6% V (+2%)
  5% Sp (-1%)
  5% SV (-1%)
  3% MdG (+3%)
  2% R (+1%)
  2% Others

Turnout: 78% (+2%)

Government: 39%
Opposition: 54%

BTW: Would MdG and R enter a coalition with the current left-wing government if they passed the 4% barrier, or would they remain out of a coalition ?

R would support a left-wing government from the outside, quite similar to Enhedslisten in Denmark. However, Rødt seems quite more dogmatic than Enhedslisten, so it will be a less stable supporting party although a socialist party will always be quite reluctant to withdraw support completely.

MdG has said that they don't support any of the blocs, but that they will choose the side where they can get the most influence, especially on environmental policy. They have, however, said that they do not want to cooperate with FrP. Whether they would join a goverment or support it from the outside probably depends on the specific negotations after an election.

If we look att the Nordic nationalist and rightwing popolust parties and their economic policies we have to change the scale. The dansih DF is almaost socialdemocratic in their economic policies. The finnish PS is alsmot leftwing. The Swedish SD is centrist, som welfare policies but also decreasing taxes. The FRP is almost libertarian.

The economic scale
PS (Norway) - DF (Denmark) - SD (Sweden) - FRP (Norway)

SV is basically a middle class party, with a lot of voters with high education and cultural capital. To some extent it is also a very urban party. That also reflects on the young people who support SV. I went to Oslo Katedralskole, which used to be one of SVs best schools. In their heyday there, I think 35 – 40% voted SV, the rest went to Rødt and AP, with a few people (myself included) voted for parties on the right.

Venstre doesn’t really have a base region or core voter group anymore. That’s why I think their results are incredibly random. Their best results were at Valler, which is in Høyres suburban core region. Their next best result was in a small rural area with a few thousand inhabitants, Gloppen. I don’t think there is any pattern here at all.

I’m not sure about FrP. But it seems like their best results are in rural areas.

That is probably true of SV voters in general, yes. But some of their best results doesn't really fit that pattern: these include Vadsø and Inderøy.

It seems like things are really changing at Katta, I was surprised at how low SV polled there. http://www.samfunnsveven.no/skolevalg/resultat/skole/10060?aar=2005  (http://www.samfunnsveven.no/skolevalg/resultat/skole/10060?aar=2005)  As recently as 2005 SV+RV got 45% of the vote, and in '07 RV was even the largest party. :P

As for FrP's best schools, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of them were focused on "yrkesfag".

Indeed, Vadsø and Inderøy don’t fit the pattern. It might be that there is a remnant of the radical rural tradition. Take NKP for example. Their strongest area in the 1940s and 1950s wasn’t the eastern parts of Oslo, where a lot of workers lived. I believe their best results were in places like Hedemark and in the North. SVs results these places might be explained in light of that.

I actually voted in the election you linked to. I think Høyre was represented by Nikolai Astrup in the debate. But of course it is extraordinary how Venstre and Høyre are actually doing better there now than SV.

You are probably right about FrP and “yrkesfag”. I think Hadsel videregående skole actually is such a place. That should probably be cause for concern for FrP. They are doing really badly in Oslo. Venstre actually beat them. They were barely able to eke out 14,5 % in Akershus. They probably have a solid base among working class people in some rural and suburban areas, but those areas are losing representatives.

In my opinion Progress Party used to be far more right wing than Sweden Democrats were at their most extreme (and pre parliamentary-entrance, when they too were really racist like Progress Party used to be). However, post-22/7, Siv Jensen (leader) and most of her staff have not deared to utter really racist stuff in the immigration debate anymore as they used to do almost daily pre-22/7.

And Frp used to be way, way to the right of Dansk Folkeparti during the 90ies and early 2000s, basically all the time while Carl. I Hagen remained as the Pia Kjaersgaard in devil. He was basically her guardian devil for a couple of decades. After Siv Jensen took over, the racist rhetoric started to decline, but it wasn't until the terrorist attack by their own political sympathiser that their rhetoric started to take a completely different form. It's okey for people to have short memories, I don't judge them for that. The Final Party Leader Debate tonight was extremely interesting. Extremely interesting because I've never ever ever seen Progress Party that defensive and out of the place before. Every single party from Red to the Conservatives kept attacking Progress Party for 2 hours straight, and Siv Jensen had absolutely nothing to say for her own defense. :P

This is ridiculous. Of couse a grande coalition could be just as happening here as everywhere else. The only thing stopping it is that the Scandinavian Labour Party has been way, way, way stronger in Norway, Sweden and in parts in Denmark than in almost any other country in the world. That's what's stopping a centre-centre-government from forming. And only that. Don't keep telling your head ridiculous reasons okey? ;)

I completely 100% agree with you that Frp is by far the most right wing nationalist party in the Nordic countries. It's hard to say which is the least nationalist/right wing, but it's certainly not Frp or Dansk Folkeparti. In other words it has to be either Sverigedemokratene or the Finnish party which I don't know a whole lot about unfortunately. The latter party that is. Sverigedemokratene is like a facial massage compared to how Frp used to be during the 90ies.

Frp is the new Senterpartiet, more or less. ;) The ignorants vote for them, everyone else try to escape them as if they were the black death. :)

eric82oslo, I find your hatred and descriptions of FrP completely irrational. FrP are considerably more moderate than they were in, say, 1989. Them entering government will likely be about as harmless as SV entering government was in 2005. Dansk Folkeparti is in my view to the right of FrP. And, lastly, there are educated people who vote for FrP as well (albeit not many).

My (more detailed) prediction:

28.6% Ap (-6.8%)
26.7% H (+9.5%)
16.1% FrP (-6.8%)
  6.5% KrF (+1.0%)   
  6.0% V (+2.1%)
  5.5% SV (-0.7%)
  5.1% Sp (-1.1%)
  2.8% MdG (+2.5%)
  1.4% R (+0.1%)
  1.3% Others (+0.2%)

Turnout: 77.6% (+1.2%)

39.2% Government
55.3% Opposition

Educated doesn't mean non-egoistic. Of course there are educated people out there who are extremely narcisistic and self-loving. ;)

I notice that KrP & Venstre are making decent gains. Do they take votes mostly from Hoyre, or Frp?

Not actually sure. Both parties are appealing to the "want a new government but are really afraid of FrP" segment, which is probably going to be quite successful. I'd guess mostly Høyre, though KrF may appeal more to rural and working-class voters who would otherwise vote FrP.

Yeah, KrF seems to be doing an amazingly horrific election in the Bible Belt of Southern Norway, only getting around 8%, while they almost always get between 20% and 25% there. It's quite clear that almost all of the Christian voters in the south have deserted the party in favor of Frp, which is the only other big Norwegian party which still advocates Christian conservative and ridiculous values like hating on gays. ;)

There's a new poll by Norfakta showing a clear majority for the Conservatives+ Progress Party, with 27,4% and 21,9% respectively.

These results are massively different from what today's VG poll shows, which gives them a combined 41,5%. Obviously, one of these pollsters will have eggs on their face two days from now.

Erick82: You seem to harbor a lot of the same prejudice against FrP as you accuse them as having against immigrants. I don’t see how you can claim that Carl Ivar Hagen is the worst Norwegian ever after Anders Behring Breivik. Anders Breivik killed close to 80 people in cold blood. Carl Ivar Hagen has created a political party, based on a set of political ideas. Those ideas are obviously different from yours, but they are still completely legitimate, just as legitimate as the social democracy of AP, and Høyre’s “liberal conservatism”.

Regarding today’s poll: It looks like the poll overstates FrP’s numbers. They might be doing better than the 13-15 % we have seen recently, but 21 % is probably a bit too much.

Today, FrP managed to make me angry for the first time in this election campaign. They are for the most part somewhat moderate these days, with the exception of some elephants in a china shop like Christian Tybring-Gjedde. But today they proposed that to be allowed to bring a foreign spouse into Norway, you should be required to earn 426 000 kr (Around $70 125) a year after taxes.

Now, I understand what they are trying to avoid. They are trying to avoid pro forma marriages that only exist to give the foreign spouse a free ticket into Norway. That could become a problem if it is not already and it needs to be stop. But to do this, Frp proposes to exclude almost every rank-and-file worker in the public sector from being allowed to marry a foreigner and still live in Norway. You're a nurse who met this really nice Canadian guy while you were studying in the US? Forget it.

What almost angers me more is that FrPs immigration spokesperson, Morten Ørsal Johansen, claims that nobody can make a living off of today's limit of 246 000 kr (around $40 500). What planet does this guy live on? Thousands of Norwegian families live off of smaller incomes than that. It almost reminds me of the Romney campaign classifying families earning $250000 as "middle class".

I think a period of responsibility will do FrP good. Voters will realize how far out some of their economic policies are, as well as being able to see that their wild promises on immigration and transportation will be impossible to carry out when placed in a position of responsibility.

Just a very quick note from your friendly neighbourhood dictator: debate is good, but certain... er... rhetorical flourishes (particularly those more than verging on hyperbole) should, perhaps, be avoided.

Regular programming has resumed.

If I am not mistaken, the election is tomorrow. How about a bit of preliminary information such as

- Poll opening and closure
- When will the first projections be available? How precise are they typically?
- Around which time can we expect to have fairly stable results?
- Websites where live results will be reported
- Regions/ constituencies to look out for (bellweathers etc.)

Thanks in advance.

Polls open at 9 and close at 9 nationwide. Some polling stations are open today as well (Oslo and some other municipalities), and almost 850 000 people have voted in advance.

The exit poll at 9 o'clock is usually quite accurate on the amount of seats each side gets, though it varies somewhat between the parties (i.e. last time Venstre got 10 seats in the exit poll, lost 8 of them, but they were distributed among the rest of the right-wing parties)

Stable results...midnight-ish. However there is one factor that's important, and that is that we have no idea whether Oslo's vote counting system will work. And also, a high number of advance votes, as mentioned.

Any Norwegian news site (nrk.no, aftenposten.no, vg.no, tv2.no, dagbladet.no, etc) will have good results. I would try to follow NRK or TV2.

Bellwethers aren't all that common in Norway seeing as though we have a list system, however there are some traditionally "red" counties that may see a larger right-wing contingent than usual in this election: Telemark, Østfold, Buskerud, Nordland. Should any of these counties flip to a majority for the right, and also Oslo, we can be pretty sure of the winner. Many of the other counties (Akershus, the Agders, all of Western Norway except Sogn og Fjordane for the right; Northern Norway, the Trøndelags, Hedmark and Oppland for the left) will not be likely to change much.

Persons eligible to vote by county and age:

http://www.ssb.no/en/valg/statistikker/stemmerettst/hvert-4-aar/2013-09-03?fane=tabell&sort=nummer&tabell=132883

What's interesting too (from Statistics Norway):


http://www.ssb.no/en/valg/statistikker/stemmerettst/hvert-4-aar/2013-09-03#content

There are a few news and records available this year already before the election officially closes tomorrow.

1. A new record of early voters has been set. This years number of 842,400 early voters - which make up almost 25% of the entire electorate, is a vast improvement from the past record sat in 2009, being about 180,000 votes higher than that one. This will make the early projections, to be released by NRK when the election halls close down at 9 o'clock CET tomorrow, even more reliable than ever before. New of the year is that NRK will no longer organize an election day poll, as analysis from the 2009 election showed that already then, with fewer early voters than this year, the early projections were in fact closer to the actual result than the various election day polls released by various media outlets.

2. In addition to the early votes cast, in 12 municipalities across the country, voters have been able to cast their vote through internet. This is the very first time this has been possible in a parliamentary election, although it was already tried out in a similar amount (10) of municipalities in the 2011 local elections, with very satisfying results and a high turnout. Preliminary results point to a very high turnout this time around as well in the 12 municipalities in question. The biggest cities/municipalities taking part in this trial this time are Sandnes (together with Stavanger Norway's 3rd most populous city), Fredrikstad (together with Sarpsborg Norway's 5th biggest city), Ålesund (Norway's 10th largest city), Bodø (2nd largest city in Northern Norway), Larvik, Mandal and Hammerfest (historically Norway's northern-most city). The remaining 5 municipalities taking part are just minor towns/municipalities.

3. 9 out of the 19 election regions, the so-called "fylker", which is the second highest administrative level (similar to US states), have experienced either a gain or a loss of parliamentary representatives compared to the 2009 election. Oslo has gained 2 new members; up from 17 to 19, making it very lucrative for smaller parties like The Greens and Red to compete for votes in the capital. The other 3 "fylker" with a gain of one member each are Akershus, Hordaland and Rogaland. All 4 among the most southern of the Norwegian "fylker". Similarily, all 5 "fylker" losing parliamentary members this time are among the more "northern" of Norway's fylker, clearly indicating that we're seeing a rapid shift of where people are chosing to settle. Many towns in the north are becoming more and more deserted while Oslo at the same time is seeing an unprecedented growth. The 5 fylker experiencing a loss of members (1 each) are Troms, Nordland, Nord-Trøndelag, Sogn og Fjordane and Hedmark. All 5 traditionally strong regions for the governing Farmers' Party/Rural Party (Senterpartiet), at the same time as Oslo is by far the party's weakest fylke. This might imply that Senterpartiet might do an unusually bad election, even worse than the polls have been suggesting. The parties most likely to benefit from these changes are the minor parties like Red, The Greens, Liberal Party and Socialist Left, as well as the Conservative Party due to having a strong hold in the big cities of Oslo, Bergen (Hordaland) and Stavanger (Rogaland), as well as the Oslo suburbs in Akershus. A parliamentarian member from Oslo is almost certain for The Greens at this stage. Two members from the capital are also quite possible in fact. They also have about a 50% chance, if not more, of obtaining a member from Hordaland. Green representatives from Akershus and Sør-Trøndelag are also definitely possible, although slightly more remote possibilities. Red is very likely to get a member from Oslo.

4. Aftenposten, Norway's biggest news paper, released an article this evening which said that Statistics Norway had looked at the 2009 results and found out that Gjerdrum in Akershus - in the middle of Oslo and the Oslo suburb of Lillestrøm at one end and the national airport Gardermoen at the other extreme - was the county/municipality closest to the national results in 2009. They were also second closest in 2005 and third closest in 2001. It is a municipality on the verge between the urban and rural divide, which might explain why it's currently regarded as the utmost bellweather county of Norway. The article: http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/iriks/Her-bor-valgprofetene-7304142.html#.Ui0uufI4VYc

5. It's not exactly a news, yet the Norwegian election system for the national parliament is heavily undemocratic in one aspect; the fact that not only the population of each region/county/state/fylke decide how many members each fylke will get, but also the size of each fylke. This is a huge contrast to many other Western countries, including the US and Australia, where only the population of each congressional county decides the outcome of elections (like in elections for the House of Representatives in the US). This makes for very odd and uncomfortable outcomes of parliamentary elections. While Finnmark, the least populous fylke, has only 53,000 voters in this election, the capital Oslo has 435,000 eligible voters. This means that Oslo has 8.2 times as many voters. Yet Oslo has "only" 19 members of parliament, while Finnmark has as many as 5. This again means that Oslo only has 3.8 times as many members. In other words, a vote in Finnmark is worth more than double of a similar vote in Oslo. This is not exactly democracy in action, and does of course favor the rural parties (mostly Senterpartiet) heavily, but also the big, national parties (traditionally Labour, in this election also the Conservatives, although to a slightly lesser extent as they're still considered more of an urban party). More on these changes here: http://no.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stortingsvalget_2013#Endringer_f.C3.B8r_valget

This is the number of members awarded to each fylke in the 2013 election:

Oslo: 19
Akershus: 17
Hordaland: 16
Rogaland: 14
Sør-Trøndelag: 10
Østfold, Buskerud, Møre og Romsdal, Nordland: 9
Vestfold, Oppland, Hedmark: 7
Vest-Agder, Troms, Telemark: 6
Nord-Trøndelag, Finnmark: 5
Sogn og Fjordane, Aust-Agder: 4

However, if each vote had counted equally in all parts of the country, meaning that geographically tiny fylker like Oslo and Vestfold had not get punished as they are today, the number of members would instead have looked like this:

Oslo: 20 (+1)
Akershus: 18 (+1)
Hordaland: 16 (almost 17)
Rogaland: 14
Sør-Trøndelag: 10
Østfold: 10 (+1)
Buskerud: 9
Møre og Romsdal: 9
Nordland: 8 (-1)
Vestfold: 8 (+1)
Hedmark: 7
Oppland: 7
Telemark: 6
Vest-Agder: 6
Troms: 6
Nord-Trøndelag: 5
Aust-Agder: 4
Sogn og Fjordane: 4
Finnmark: 3 (-2) [in fact they would only get 2.5, which I decided to round up to 3]

In other words, the three northernmost fylker would lose 3 members, while Oslo, Akershus, Østfold and Vestfold would all gain one member each. In fact one more fylke would have to give up on one of its members, but I'm not quite sure which one it would be. Doesn't feel fair to punish the smallest one of them all, Finnmark. The easiest solution would probably be to increase the number of members with one or a handful.

If it was up to me, I would have made three major changes to the current electoral system in Norway:

1. Reduce the number of fylker from today's 19 to a more managable 10. Then you could merge the smallest fylker like Finnmark, Sogn og Fjordane and Aust-Agder with their neighbours. It would drastically heighten the number of members from each fylke and thus make the process more democratic almost everywhere.
2. Get rid of the "mountains and fjords deserve a vote as well". Only actual human beings should be able to have a say in democratic processes. Thus Oslo should be just as valueble as Finnmark. In USA, the equivalent would be that Washington D.C. residents or voters in NYC should have just as much say in the electoral process as Sarah Palin and her Alaskan compatriots.
3. Reduce the threshold from today's 4% to only 1% or the very maximum 2%. In fact, the threshold shouldn't have to be any higher than 0.7% in fact, since there are as many as 167 parliamentarians in the Norwegian "Stortinget".

On the subject of bellwethers, today's Aftenposten has an article about Gjerdrum, which has come rather close to reflecting the national result. Unsurprisingly, it's a very middle-class suburb of Oslo with a strong rural element.

http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/iriks/Her-bor-valgprofetene-7304142.html#.Ui13gD-9LoY

Encouraging, but not necessarily meaning more turnout overall.

We had a state election in my state in May, where absentee ballot requests increased by 35% compared with the 2009 state election.

Yet overall turnout decreased from 74% to 71% in the election.

...

Still, I believe that this election will see slightly higher turnout than last time, because the Right seems to be energized for a possible government change.

Higher turnout is likely both due to the right being energized and due to the Labour Party mobilizing heavily at the last minute.

Just finished a very pretty new county base map.

Also due to July 22 (youth turnout increased by 10 percentage points in 2011, I think from 50% to 60% or something like that), the fact that the High School Election showed the highest turnout ever recorded, the fact that it's easier than ever to cast a vote (due to the new e-election and a longer early voting period than ever before; 2 full months) and the fact that all major newspapers in Norway (about 20) have held an intense campaign for at least a month urging everyone to use their voice and vote (nothing like this has been tried out before, at least not on this massive scale & cooperated effort; they've also been clever using tons of humour and a professional PR company to get their message out).

Hopefully, Stoltenberg's Labour Party manages a surprise and defeats the Conservatives by 5-10% today and that the government comes within 5-10% as well (a win would be shocking).

The Stoltenberg-government has not really earned such a big defeat, like the polls are predicting: Unemployment in Norway is 3.5%, the oil fund for future pensions is worth 500 Bio. $ right now and tripled under the Stoltenberg-government, the average Norwegian earns ca. 6000$ a month, the social safety net works well.

Hopefully, Norway voters take a second look today and forget that these "small first-world problems" that the Conservatives and other opposition parties are talking about, are in fact what they are - small and meaningless in a global perspective - and give the Stoltenberg government another chance.

They've been in power for what, 8 years? Government fatigue kicks in eventually.

Yes, but that is no legitimate reason IMO for a change of horses.

Just because a government is boring, but still manages the state well, you just simply vote for Conservatives ... :P

If that was true shouldn't you vote for either SPÖ or ÖVP instead of the Greens, since they have also been objectively quite good in government if you look at employment and similar numbers? ;)

Not really, because I have never been a SPÖVP voter before, always Greens.

But it seems in Norway, people are actually leaving the AP for the Right !

And besides, SPÖVP have their own corruption problems too and the employment/economic picture is not nearly as rosy as they try to portray (bank bailouts, 100.000 unemployed more since Faymann took over, Alpine bankrupcy etc.) ... ;)

Maybe Norway has some important problems too regarding the current government that I as an outsider don't know ... (so, please tell me).

Live stream from NRK (http://www.nrk.no/valg2013/dette-er-valgnatta-pa-nrk-1.11229481), Norwegian National Television.

Works for us foreigners. Enjoy.



I'll leave that to the Norwegians to explain. They have the expertise knowledge after all.
I'll just say that voters sometimes can be cruel and irrational. After all the Swedish government hasn't done anything particularly wrong in the last two years either, and is objectively very successful, but has still gone from having their own majority in polls to barely breaking 40%.   

I understand it's easy to look at the Norwegian election and see it simply as a case of voters being bored, however:

- Arrogance among the governing parties
- A general sense that they are only managing, not governing, or presenting any visions whatsoever
- The peripheries feeling neglected at the same time as the cities feel they are being neglected as well
- As well as fatigue

Is going to be what defeats the government.

Alright some predictions :)

- Ap will be the largest party.
- H and Krf will under-preform slightly from polls, Frp and V will over-preform slightly.
- MdG will pass 4%, SV will fall below 4%.
- The next government will consist of H+Frp+Krf+Sp. (This is a bold one)  


So exactly the same reason the Alliance government will loose next year over here in the brother land. Our peoples are more alike than either side would like to admit. :P 

Yeah, pretty much. :P

Predictions:
Ap - 29,3 - 55 seats
H - 26,5 - 46 seats
FrP - 16,6 - 31 seats
V - 5,9 - 11 seats
KrF - 5,5 - 9 seats
Sp - 4,5 - 8 seats
SV - 4,2 - 6 seats
MdG - 3,0 - 2 seats
Rødt - 2,4 - 1 seat

Red-green - 38,0 - 69
Blue-green-yellow - 54,5 - 97
Rødt + MdG - 5,4 - 3

Can someone explain how Norway's system works? I know there's a 4% threshold but apparently you can get a seat or 2 even if you get under that.

There are 150 district seats distributed between the counties, these work as in a normal list system. Say if you have approximately a fourth of the vote in Sogn og Fjordane, you get one of the four district seats from there. The 4% threshold is for the so-called "levelling seats" (utjevningsmandater) which exist because the district system alone favors major parties. There are 19 levelling seats, one for each county, and they are distributed among the parties to provide something approaching proportional representation.

When does the polls close?  It is 6:44Pm already.  Will there be exit polls.  Based on what I know my understanding is that H+FrP+KrF+V will exceed their 2001 results and this will be the largest right wing majority in modern Norway election history.

When do the polls close?

Polls in most of the country close at 9 PM. Exit poll will be published on both NRK and TV2 then. By the way, NRK is making their election night feed accessible outside of Norway:

http://www.nrk.no/valg2013/

Any word on turnout so far ?

http://live2.tv2.no/nyheter/valg2013

... is pretty good.

Has a live stream embedded, together with results/exit poll on the right side.

Seems to be the most common reason for government defeat in Scandinavia - there's no clear correlation between strenght of the economy and performance of the government at elections. Of course, the same applies to the 2005 election where the centre-right government lost and also the Swedish election of 2006.

As for your prediction - why would the right-wing cooperate with Sp instead of Venstre? :P

I just have a hunch that even though the battle ax between Venstre and Frp has officially been buried there might be trouble when the winners try to create a government together. The Centre Party is traditionally closer to the right, and as I've understood it there are elements of the party who very much wishes to return it to the centre-right camp, and they seem much less principally opposed towards Frp than Venstre does.
 
Sure it's unlikely, but that's why I called it a bold prediction. ;)     

Right, party vote prediction:

Ap: 30,4%
H: 25,8%
Frp: 17,7%
V: 5,7%
Sp: 5,6%
Krf 5,3%
MdG: 4,0%
SV: 3,8%
R: 1,2%

the numbers don't quite stack up for the traditional H, KrF, V, SP coalition do they? I think that SP have also burned a few bridges going all out against Hoyre's agricultural policies lately

NRK exit polls

Christian Dem  10 seats
Liberal              8 seats
Center party    13 seats
Socialist left      7 seats
Progress          31 seats
Labor              55 seats
Conservative    44 seats

NTB exit poll

Christian Dem  10 seats
Liberal              8 seats
Center party    13 seats
Socialist left      7 seats
Progress          31 seats
Labor              55 seats
Conservative    44 seats

(seems to be same as NRK)

With these exit poll results I think the H+FrP+KrF+V vote share should be slightly below 54%, which will exceed their 2001 vote share of 52.1% which was the largest right-wing vote share in modern Norway elections.

These exit polls has 93 for center-right opposition and 75 for center-left goverment.  I assume the last seat goes to Red Party?

TV2 exit polls just has  93 for center-right and 74 for center-left.

That's because it's not an Exit Poll. :P
Apparently, not all polls close at the same time in Norway, and this is a projection based on the votes already counted. But it includes no votes from Oslo, which makes it a bit pointless.

Interesting.  All the English language news media seems to say (example Bloomberg)  "The Conservative Party and its partners the Progress Party, the Liberal Party and the Christian Democrats, are set to win 94 seats of the 169 in parliament, according to the average of exit polls by state broadcaster NRK, NTB and TV2. Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg’s Labor-led three-party coalition won 74 seats, the polls showed after voting closed at 9 p.m. local time."

Which refered to them as exit polls.  If they are just results without Oslo then that is something very different.

Ah.  I see it.  DPA "Oslo (DPA) -- Norway's ruling red-green coalition will lose its parliamentary majority, according to projections based on partial results, issued just after polling stations closed Monday.
Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg's Labour Party and its two junior partners were set to get 76 seats, compared to the 86 they had in the outgoing 169-seat legislature.
The opposition bloc led by Erna Solberg, leader of the Conservative Party, was projected to win 93 seats. Her potential coalition partners include the right-wing populist Progress Party, the Liberals and Christian Democrats.
Statistics Norway's projection was based on about 16 per cent of the vote, but did not include tallies from the capital, Oslo."

So the exit polls are based on, but not equal to,  16% of the vote which does not include Oslo.  I assume these projections takes into account some sort of relationship between the votes coming in so far and what that might imply about Oslo's vote.

Oslo usually votes a tad to the right of the rest of the country, but only a tad.

Listening to Krf leaders speech. Nynorsk doesn't sound like Norwegian, it sounds like a strange wimpy dialect of Swedish. <.<

The results are based on a count of 24.9 percent of the votes released so far today. The participation level was 72.8 percent, subject to change.

                           Count        2009 Election
-------------------------------------------------------
Government and supporters
Labor Party                 30.0%             35.4%
Socialist Left Party         3.9%              6.2%
Center Party                 5.9%              6.2%
-------------------------------------------------------
Opposition alliance
Conservatives               26.8%             17.2%
Christian Democrats        5.9%              5.5%
Liberal Party                  4.6%              3.9%
Progress Party              16.9%             22.9%
-------------------------------------------------------

The Greens gains a mandate in Oslo and is thus in parliament for the first time ever (doesn't look like they will break the 4 % threshold though) 

SV is falling closer and closer to the threshold. They will probably only get a district mandate in Oslo, and perhaps one in Akershus, so a result below 4 % will be a catastrophe. That will also mean that a couple of ministers will not even make it into parliament. Also party leader Audun Lysbakken will miss out on a seat if they get below the threshold.

The early voting from Oslo shows that Miljøpartiet de Grønne will definitely get a seat; it looks more doubtful for Rødt.

If possible, will the Progress Party, Conservative Party, and Christian Dems try to form a coalition without the Centre Party?

Do you mean without the Liberal Party? The Centre Party is a part of the centre-left government. It is quite hard to predict what the new government will look like; the most likely is perhaps a Conservative-Progress government supported by the Christians and the Liberals.

TV2 just had SV down at 3.9 % which will mean 2 seats. One in Oslo for Minister of International Development Heikki Holmås, and a bit surprisingly one for party leader Audun Lysbakken in Hordaland.

On the other hand, NRK, who for a while has had SV under the threshold with 2 seats, are now projecting SV at 4,0 % with 7 seats

Oh, now they are down again. This is gonna be a nail-biter!

They're stronger in Oslo than the rest of the country; does that mean they'll probably make it?

Most of the prognosis count in that they are stronger in Oslo than in the rest of the country, so it will be important whether their losses are lower there than elsewhere. Perhaps it could be to their disadvantage if MdG has gained much more in Oslo than elsewhere

So far their losses actually seem worse than average in Oslo. So they may still be fycked.

It seems that center-right opposition is over-performing exit poll and more in line with pre-election polls.

According to the present NRK prognosis, SV is projected at 4,1% with (a little) room down to the 4% threshold. Furthermore, AP is gaining a seat from tonights other big loser, FRP. In fact, it seems certain, that FRP is tonights biggest loser - but they will most likely gain government seats(!)

Wonder how their supporters will react to them being in government, actually.

Well, given where FrP were back in 2011 these results would be quite good.  I suspect their support will fall off once they are in government and not be able to absorb anti-establishment votes.

It seems that SV will get 7 seats and lose "only" 4 seats.

Oslo is very tight between the two big parties: currently 30.4% Ap, 29.9% H (with 73% counted) earlier in the evening H were slight in front. The Conservatives are comfortably ahead in Bergen and Stavanger, while Labour is comfortably ahead in Trondheim.

I think there's two realistic coalition governments at this point:

Høyre-Fremskrittspartiet or those two + Venste and Krf. I don't think either of the "centrist" parties would go into a H-Frp government all by themselves.

Also, SV seems very likely to make it - they are currently at 4,054% with 76,8% counted. Audun Lysbakken may just keep his job as SV leader then. But it's still too early to tell for sure.

Miljøpartiet will enter parliament for the first time, with one MP, due to a strong showing in Oslo.

Looks like SV will make the threshold, but one of their major profiles, Minister of Children, Equality and Inclusion Inga Marte Thorkildsen, wouldn't make it into parliament from Vestfold.
Siv Jensen and FrP looses quite a lot but calls it "3th best result in the history of FrP" - the minor detail is that the two better elections where the two last elections...

Whoops yes that's what I meant, thanks! Got a bit confused between the acronyms, the English names and the Norwegian names :p

The Venstre leader seems quite purposeful in going for government posts. She said in the party leader round that "she didn't campaign for others to go into government, and that she believes that you get more influence within a government". The KrF-leader was not as clear but the two parties will probably follow each other. This points more towards a four party government; will be some exciting weeks :)

The Maths suggests that they could just about do it without the KrDs, if they're Ok with a majority of 2. Given Progress Libertarian roots it shouldn't be that hard to create a neoliberal alliance devoid of religious traditionalism.

Venstre would not go along with that. The two centrist parties want to be able to rely on each other in government, because alone they could easily be overrun by H and FrP.

()

Quick little map showing leading party stuff.

The turnout differences between regions are really wild in this election. From less than 51% in Oslo to incredible 81% in Akershus, which is basically the suburbian Oslo + a little bit more. For the nation as a whole, the turnout so far has been pitched to disappointing 71% only. It seems like the turnout is really horrific in most of the big cities like Oslo, Bergen and Stavanger. I have no idea why the differences are so huge. It's true that immigrants vote much less frequently than other groups, but even in Oslo, immigrants make up only 17% of all eligible voters. Another difference is of course that voters/inhabitants in the big cities are on average much younger than inhabitants in suburbia and other regions. A huge amount of the eligible voters in Oslo are younger than 40 years. It's a fact that younger voters turn out much less frequently than their older counterparts.

71% ?

So, as I've said, a big increase in early voting doesn't necessarily mean higher overall turnout.

But 50% only in Oslo ?

:o

What was turnout in Oslo 4 years ago ?

100% counted:

30.9% A
26.8% H
16.4% FRP
  5.6% KRF
  5.5% SP
  5.2% V
  4.1% SV
  2.8% MDG
  1.1% RØDT
  1.6% Others

Turnout: 71.5% (-5%)

The turnout is now reported as being at least 77,6 % which is an increase since 2009 where it was 76,4.

50% in Oslo was without early votes, I think.

Oslo turnout now 80%.

So, my turnout prediction was right after all ... :)

()

Use the magick of right click to bring up the proper sized version, etc.

Beautiful work as always, Al. :)

I will also be doing - at some point - borough maps for Oslo and maybe maps by municipality elsewhere. Possibly. ;D

Great news - shame about the results like.

Final Norway-wide turnout will be 78.2%, which is ca. 2% more than in 2009.

1 precinct in Oslo is not yet counted for some reason (ca. 2500 people eligible there).

That would appear to be Sogn High School, which was closed before polling began due to asbestos. Of course, this was not discovered while thousands of students were filed through there over the years, or all the other times it was used as a polling station, or while it was used for special education.

Anyway, buses were set up and people who wanted to vote were moved to different stations.

Ah, ok. Sucks for the students and teachers. Asbest is quite dangerous.

So, no further votes expected from there.

Turnout remains at 78.1%

It's actually been closed for a few years, and only been used for Norwegian as a Second Language and some disabled groups. It used to be Oslo's big troublemaking school, with more than 2000 vocational students gathered in one place. The asbestos has probably been there for a few years, though...

The big problem for the municipality is that they were planning to reopen it and use it as temporary facilities for a new high school in 2015. Getting rid of the asbestos could take a while.

Not necessarily. It is typically the ceiling panels holding it, which can be replaced rather easily and fast. If it is in the wall insulation (for fire protection reasons), however, it might become a nightmare.

In any case, considering when they found out that asbestos can cause cancer, the school must be at least 30 years old, and is probably pretty energy inefficient. Might be cheaper to tear it down and rebuild it...

My borough (Frogner) came in heavily for the centre-right, with 42,5 % going to Høyre, and 23 % to the remaining parties on the right.

Just to introduce something that those who've not followed Norwegian elections before that's not unnoticeable in voting patterns, language:

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Blue shows municipalities where the official written language is Nynorsk, red where it is Bokmål, and grey where are neutral.

Also found a map of dialect groups:

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West Norwegian, North Norwegian, East Norwegian and Trøndelag Norwegian. It's not so hard to work out where's where.

Results in municipalities with a population over 50,000:

Oslo - Ap 30.4, H 29.8, Frp 11.7, V 8.2, SV 6.3, MDG 5.6, R 3.2, KrF 2.8
Bergen - H 33.6, Ap 25.6, Frp 13.2, V 6.9, SV 6.4, KrF 5.7, MDG 4.0, Sp 2.0, R 1.2
Trondheim - Ap 36.8, H 24.2, Frp 12.5, SV 7.2, V 6.3, MDG 4.1, KrF 3.1, Sp 2.6, R 1.2
Stavanger - H 33.4, Ap 25.9, Frp 15.8, V 6.5, KrF 6.2, SV 5.2, MDG 3.2, Sp 1.6
Kristiansand - H 29.6, Ap 24.9, Frp 15.8, KrF 12.7, V 5.4, SV 3.3, MDG 3.0, Krist. 1.3, Pp 1.2, Sp 1.0
Fredrikstad - Ap 37.6, H 25.8, FrP 18.7, KrF 5.1, V 3.7, SV 2.5, MDG 2.4, Sp 1.7
Skien - Ap 35.8, H 23.5, Frp 20.7, KrF 7.2, V 3.4, SV 3.3, MDG 2.0, Sp 1.9, Krist. 1.0
Tromsø - Ap 30.5, H 24.2, Frp 16.1, SV 9.5, V 5.3, KrF 3.7, MDG 3.3, R 2.9, Sp 2.9
Drammen - H 33.6, Ap 32.3, Frp 18.0, V 4.6, KrF 3.1, SV 2.8, MDG 2.5, Sp 1.4
Sandnes - H 31.1, Ap 21.9, Frp 20.4, KrF 10.5, V 4.6, Sp 3.6, SV 3.0, MDG 2.2
Sarpsborg - Ap 39.4, H 22.9, Frp 20.3, KrF 5.3, V 2.9, Sp 2.8, SV 1.9, MDG 1.4, Krist. 1.2, Pp 1.0

Nice maps, Sibboleth.

The written language map, while accurate, may give non-Norwegians the wrong impression: practically all of the "neutral" municipalities consist mainly of Bokmål users - as do, I think, even some of the officially Nynorsk municipalities. The nationwide ratio is approximately 90% bokmål- 10% nynorsk.


Here is a list of the best and worst municipalities of the main parties btw: http://www.nrk.no/valg2013/her-har-venstre-og-sp-rent-flertall-1.11232635
 (http://www.nrk.no/valg2013/her-har-venstre-og-sp-rent-flertall-1.11232635)

Labour Party, Best results: Årdal 63%, Sunndal 52%, Sel 51%. Worst: Eid 10%, Gloppen 10%, Bjerkreim 12%.

Conservatives, best results: Bærum 46%, Asker 43%, Oppegård 39%. Worst: Os(Hedmark)7%, Gloppen 7%, Høylandet 6%.

Turnout now up to 78.4% - just 2 precincts not fully completed.

30.9% A - 55 seats
26.8% H - 48 seats
16.3% FRP - 29 seats
  5.6% KRF - 10 seats
  5.5% SP - 10 seats
  5.2% V - 9 seats
  4.1% SV - 7 seats
  2.8% MDG - 1 seat
  1.1% RØDT
  1.7% Others

http://www.valgresultat.no/bs5.html

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Larger map can be seen via the magick of right click.

But isn't that so very pretty?

All political stereotypes of the city of Oslo can be confirmed in that one map.

I assume the workers/immigrants live mostly in that North-East peninsula-looking part of the city ? Where also the FrP is strongest ?

And the upper middle class people in the SW part of Oslo ?

Plus the classical green-leftish (SV, MDG, R) inner city. The older Liberals (V) have started to settle down in the western suburbs, which are otherwise firmly in Hoyre hands (of course, as all over north-western Europe, the wind blows mostly from the west, so that is where the air is better).

Yes, primarily. Though there is a big exception to the regular west/east split - the district of Nordstrand which is considered "the West side of Oslo East" (Østkantens vestkant), which is an upper-middle class area dominated by Høyre. (There are other exceptions as well, of course, but that is easily the most glaring one when looking at these maps)

Psephologically speaking, Oslo is basically the classic Northern European City.

Oslo correlations-
Ap and Fr!
H and V!
SV & MG
KrF- Dead.

V is actually much closer to SV and MdG than it is to H (all three have highest levels of strength in the city center); it may be H's closest correlation but the converse is far from true.

.
Let me guess - Nordstrand is demographically a bit older than the western suburbs, that's why pockets pf Krd support could still survive there.
I further assume that the oldest suburb is the one on the western bay shore, which is starting to turn over (traditional Hoyre voters gradually dying away, and being replaced by younger V & MdG voters).

Now, if somebody could point out to us where the University is located (my guess is to the west of the inner city, in that district where S & MdG are strongest), we have almost solved all the mysteries of these wonderful maps...  

B.t.w, Sibboleth, you don't feel like doing swing maps as well, don't you?

Results by municipality, by party and coalition

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Party colours should be obvious, FrP won a few small towns and they're in purple (unfortunately a tad hard to see). KrF is yellow.

I think I've seen it explained before, but Labour's strength in many inland rural areas (especially Oppland, Hedmark and Nord-Trøndelag, and extending to the head of Sognefjord) is a feature of Norwegian political geography which really stands out on those maps.

Yes, that is quite notable.I fret to think what a parallel universe in which this would not be considered self-evident from the party descriptions might look like.

A lot of that is about class as many of these places are not exactly non-industrial (the various timber and related industries - sawmills, papermills etc -  being a major one, but also mining - or a history of it - in some areas and the occasional bit of really heavy industry: for instance, Årdal - the place you spotted at the head of the Sognefjord - is an aluminium smelting town), but also there's also political organisation and political tradition.

From an article written in 1962:

Yes, Nordstrand has one of the older demographics of Oslo (though not necessarily the oldest), though whether that is the reason for KrF's relative strength there I don't know.

As for the oldest suburb on the western bay shore - are you referring to this borough, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nordre_Aker (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nordre_Aker) ?
Most of the University is located in that district/borough as well, in the more urban part of it.

What you said is pretty much spot on.

Although MDG and SV are currently the leading academic parties, Venstre and even Rødt don't come all that far behind though. Venstre's sole problem is the fact that they're actually half-heartedly supporting a blue-blue government. That's why I, and most other academic people as well, have chosen to shy away from voting the (Social-)Liberal party in this election. I think, in fact, the vaste majority of university professors and thus like voted, like me, The Greens in this election. The second biggest university/academic party was probably Socialistic Left.

From an article written in 1962:

[/quote]

Hello, new poster from Hedmark here!
Everything you quote is correct, but the most fascinating divide in Hedmark and Oppland I believe is the historical divide between "big farmers", who almost exclusivliy voted Farmers Party (Center), and Conservative (Høyre), and small farmes, "housmen", which was dependent on the "big farmers". The "housmen" was among the first norwegians to be radicalized in the last half of the 19th century, and has voted Labour ever since.

The industrial towns in Hedmark, Åmot in Østerdalen in particular, was communist strongholds in the interwar years up intil the 60's.  

I was actually referring to Frogner (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frogner), though Nordre Aker is even making more sense result-wise. Frogner should probably display quite an internal East-West split, with the East being more urban (green-leftish) and the West quite suburban (Hoyre).

To a certain extent yes, because east Frogner is home to many students. But at the same time, the eastern half is known for being packed with "old money", which means that difference is evened out a bit.

I could imagine east Frogner being a bit similar to this place (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Othmarschen) (the English article is a bit crappy, if you understand German, try out that version, plus this article (http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elbchaussee)).

Interesting. Would smallholder or tenant farmer be the right translation, or is it implicitly both? Or is it more like agricultural labourers who are also smallholders?

A husman is a tenant horticulturist who pays rent in labour. Or in other words, a laborer who is "payed" not with money, but with a small parcel of land to build his house on and till. Similar arrangements existed in Eastern Germany, of course. Conditions might vary, but usually such people were de facto serfs.

Thanks (and that explains everything else as well). Does he actually own his own house or is it a tied cottage? You know those weren't abolished (legislatively) for farm workers here until the 1970s?

Ah, there is one thing to remember.
The Norwegian landlord - the 'big farmer' mentioned above - would usually be of a very different class from the British gentry you're thinking of right now.
http://sfj.no/sff/sffarkiv3.nsf/0/30729B9E479CA3DBC125765500262274?OpenDocument
http://archiver.rootsweb.ancestry.com/th/read/NORWAY/2005-02/1108237149
http://rayson.us/Genealogy/Norwegian_Life.html

Given the obvious issue of land quality I was sort of assuming something like that but, yeah...

Any news regarding guvernment formation?

negotiations stating tomorrow I think in a "secret location" in Oslo

The number of female parliamentarians will not increase from the last 4 year session and will still linger below 40%. :( Only two parties will have a majority female group; the Rural Party with 70% female representation and the Labour Party with 28 females against 26 males. The Progress Party will have the most conservative multi-member parliamentary group with nearly 80% men to represent them. Now how sad and old-fashioned isn't that?

My expectation was that the female representation would actually increase, since the Progress Party did a considerably worse election than both 2009 and 2005, however that did not turn out to be the case. When will the parties stop to almost always nominate a male politician as their number 1 choice in the 19 regional "fylker"?

I think three things could aliviate this situation and turn the female representation closer to where Sweden is at the moment (45% or higher):

1. The reduction in the number of fylker from 19 to for instance 15, 12 or 10. Some have even suggested a number as low as 5 to 7, though then called "regions" instead of "fylker".
2. A law which would make it illegal not to divide each electoral list into 50% of each sex, unless there was some specific reason for why it shouldn't apply to a particular party (you could argue that a Feminist Party should be allowed to be represented by 100% women for instance, or that a Youth Party should be allowed only to endorse youth candidates).
3. The threshold is still an issue. The Green Party obtained almost 3% of all votes in this election, yet got only one of their politicians elected to the parliament. With a threshold of 2% or lower, The Green Party would automatically have gotten 4 members in the parliament. As the vast majority of Green politicians are in fact female, we could be absolutely certain that their parliamentary group would not consist of 100% male members like the situation will be now.

A party supported mostly by older men ran mostly old men on it's candidate list. Not too surprising. What does surprise me is that SV is majority male and Centre is majority female. I would've expected the opposite. can someone enlighten me why Centre runs so many/SV runs so few female candidates?

Farmers wives.

That's bogus. Sweden has 29 constituencies. So the number is hardly the issue.
The problem is that the parties don't put women at the number one spot.
Sure you can try to "solve" the problem by some awful affirmative action law, but if the parties think it's a problem (which they of course should think) they should look over their internal party structure instead. Sweden has been able to reach 48% women in parliament without some lazy legislation to fall back on.

Thankfully I don't believe we'll see such nonsense from this new government. If we're really lucky they might even repeal the horrible affirmative action law already in place against company boards.      


I can't speak for SV, but the Nordic Centre Parties has always been on the forefront when it comes to female politicians. There are several reasons for that, which I unfortunately can't go into much detail about, but too make a long story short women in the Scandinavian country side has always had a stronger position tan those living in towns and cities, and the farmer parties often had a strong network for female members, as Al pointed out, often Farmer's wives (and/or daughters) 

It is complete bull to argue that reducing the number of fylker (which, by the way, have other responsibilities than being electoral districts, you realize) will increase the number of women in parliament.

It is also complete bogus to argue that forcing parties to run 50% women will improve the situation. I admire the Labour Party for doing it, but I've seen what kind of trouble it can lead to for them as well.

The real reason for there being fewer women than before in Parliament is quite simple - in most fylker, each party can only pick up a single representative. And there are more men heading the lists than women. That's not gender discrimination unto itself.

If people are so concerned about there not being enough women in parliament, they need to get the parties to vote for more women at the top of the lists!

I could imagine that strong female position having long historical roots, maybe dating back to the times when men were away all summer for ..eh.. business.. on foreign shores. Frisia is similar in these respects, and you also find such a pattern in the Cossack areas of Ukraine and Southern Russia (the Cossacks were free of serfdom and had the right for local self-administration, in exchange for military service for the Tsar, which often kept away men all summer from their villages).

It's not complete bull to argue for fewer fylker, when you argue the exact same thing indirectly. You say that the main reason for the low female representation is that in most fylker, each party can only expect at most one member of parliament. Well, if there were let's say only 5 or 10 fylker, that would no longer be the case. Then, instead, most parties could expect, on a good day, to achieve 2, 3 or even 4 members of parliament from most fylker. Thus the awful female representation would all of a sudden be history, more or less. ;) Normally I would argue for more members of parliament instead, but then we would need a new Storting, I'm afraid. Today's parliamentary hall was only made for 150 members and we've already extended it with 19 beyond that. There is hardly place for any more expansion. :(

It's also the truth that women in general have considerably higher education than men in general. At least in Norway that's the case. Thus it's actually a threat towards the democracy itself that we mostly elect men. We want the best men and women to represent us, right? Not only the best men. Scientists can assure us that men and women think totally different cause their brains are very different. Thus it's a double threat to democracy that only one way of thinking has the vast majority of members of parliament. Imagine if we had almost 50-50, like Sweden already amazingly do. However the big difference between Sweden and Norway is that in Sweden almost every single party, from the leftist parties to the Conservatives, think exactly like the Norwegian Labour Party (and other leftist parties of Norway), and nominate 50% of each sex. In Norway, that custom has so far not been extended to the Conservatives and Progress Party (two of the three main parties) and I'm not sure if the Christian Democrats have changed their policy on the matter yet either? It's only a matter of time before the changes will come though. In 10-15 years it will all look very different even in Norway, I'm sure.

So, reduce the amount of an administrative unit with actual functions other than being electoral districts to achieve better gender balance in Parliament. Sounds entirely logical to me.

Once again, it's much easier on everyone if people who are concerned about this can go to the party meetings and help nominate women at the top of the lists.

Basically every party and politician seem to think that 19 fylker is way too much anyways. It's not some kind of revolution. The big question is not if the number of fylker should be reduced, but rather if they should be reduced or abolished altogether. The Conservatives and Progress Party seem to prefer an abolishment, while most other parties rather prefer bigger regions to substitute today's fylker. Personally I'm for a continuation of fylker, but I would like to see a reduction in the number. Preferably to about half of what it is today. I also think that the number of municipalities should be reduced with about 200%. Today we have 428 of them I think. I don't see why we would need more than about 100. The municipalities would be run much more efficiently and most of them would save so much money. Plus there would be so many other benefits as well.

I certainly agree that the number of fylker needs to be reduced, or replaced with regions. I just find "more women in Parliament" to be an absolutely ridiculous argument for it. ;) Not quite sure how the new constituencies would work out anyways. I mean, say you have 7-8 new regions (which is the most likely alternative at this point). You can't have a constituency like that - how would you get, say, parties in Hedmark, Oppland, Buskerud and Akershus to cooperate on a single list?

Wow, we have about 290 of them in Sweden and we're twice your population. AND the smallest ones here are already ridiculously small.

Several experts have concluded that the ideal number of municipalities is between 100 and 105. Of course, that will never happen - too much opposition. But hopefully we can get something approaching your number.

Oh Gustaf, you with your Stockholm perspective on everything. ;)

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Anyway the reason Norway has so many more municipalities is that they've  never had the big municipal reform that we had here in the early 70's. Before that Sweden also had a ridiculous number of them.

The problem with such reforms is that they are incredibly unpopular. It's the classical "But not in my neighborhood" dilemma. People in general tend to agree that changes are needed, but they don't want it to be their municipality. 

Wealthy suburban/exurban municipalities doesn't want to merge with poor immigrant suburbs. Cities don't want to take over the ageing and costly country side surrounding them and so on. 
Not to mention that since large parts of Scandinavia are so scarcely populated merging two municipalities into one might mean that people who already might have over an hours drive to get to the municipal seat now will have over two hours. It's a delicate issue that savvy politicians would like someone else to get the heat for.

After all, the Swedish municipal reform in the 70's was one of the reasons for the Centre Party's (the strongest opponent of the reform) success in that era, and the Social Democrats fall from their 40-year unbroken power-hold.   

Sorry to interfere, but it seems that territorial reorganisation is an issue of general interest.

The thread below has evolved into some kind of discussion on federalisation, but also county/community merger in Spain:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=176903.25

I have done a bit on the proposed Sachsen-Anhalt county reform in the German Elections thread, and intend to post more (proposed Brandenburg county merger, German discussion on state mergers) after the German election.

How about a general "European Territorial Reform" thread, to get an overview on discussions in various countries. If yes, where should it be placed- "International General Discussions", or "Political Geography" (the latter fits better, but a Europe-related thread might get lost in all the US gerrymandering threads there)?

P.S: This isn't meant to stop you from discussing the Norwegian fykker here. There is always the possibility to copy some posts form one into another thread...

Thuringia. ;)

Haha, you're both cute. :P

Come on, competing with France in the "ridiculous subdivisions" competition is like trying to fight the entire United States military with a slingshot. :D

Though the importance of communes - except in urban areas where they're basically like any other local authority - is greatly exaggerated.

France ain't got nothing on Pennsylvania:

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And that's just one county.

Um, that's actually considerably better than much of France. I do agree that it can get a bit out of hand in PA as well, though.

Well pardon me but I beg to differ. Ask any French in France where he lives, he will say the name of his commune first, then his département, and then you have all odds that he won't even know which region he lives in. The commune comes first, believe me. That's why it's so hard to reduce their staggering number.Well I see your 2562 municipalities gathering 12 million inhabitants in Pennsylvania, and I raise you my 2339 communes in the Lorraine région gathering 2.3 million inhabitants.

Noob.

That should differ from country to country. The German constitution attributes specific functions and rights to three territorial layers -Federation, state, and commune. Counties, OTOH, are constitutionally nothing more than an association of communes. In Germany. most basic service provision (schools, utilities, road infrastructure, etc. ), as well as tax collection and spatial planning is resting with the communes. I don't know about the Scandinavian situation, but I suppose it to be similar to Germany due to common Germanic traditions of local self-rule (thing, etc.).

In Norway, municipalities are responsible for "primary education (until 10th grade), outpatient health services, senior citizen services, unemployment and other social services, zoning, economic development, and municipal roads."

So more or less correct, Franknburger. The counties are responsible for larger roads (the national government dumped a bunch of national roads in their heads a few years ago), public transport, high schools and dental care.

Thanks for reminding me on basic social protection/ care and unemployment, which is also resting with the German communes. Part of the flaws with implementing the Hartz IV social protection reforms here relates to the fact that all unemployment-related activities were  originally meant to be concentrated with the Federal Labour Agency, which the Constitutional Court ruled to be a violation of communal rights. As a result, a number of models for Labour Agency / commune, or Labour Agency / county (as association of communes) cooperation evolved, which resulted in reform implementation being anything but homogenous....
Public transport is mostly resting with the states, which are typically delegating part of it to the counties, with the exception of school buses (communes, as part of their responsibility for schooling in general). As to roads, there are of course federal and state roads, as well as county roads, in addition to municipal roads.
Health rests with the states here, but is mostly delegated to the counties. However, government responsibility is restricted to ensure basic health service provision (typically one public hospital per county). Otherwise, health, and especially dental service provision is in private hands, subjected to federal health sector regulation.

But yeah, while implementation details differ, the basic approach to municipal responsibilities seems to be quite similar in Germany and Norway.

Why did the MDG do so well in this election? Why did the people who switched to the MDG in this election not vote for Venstre or the SV?

The same is true about Sweden as well.

Because MDG had much more fresh and modern solution to old-fashioned and some new, issues? I don't find it strange at all. Had I not voted MDG, I would either have voted Rødt, SV or Venstre. My big issue with Venstre was their blue-blue-alliance, basically making it 100% impossible for me to vote for them. Similarily I hate both Centre Party and Labour Party and have no respect what so ever for the new party leader of SV, which basically makes it next to impossible for me to vote SV. So my vote was extremely simple. Either to vote MDG or to vote Rødt for the very first time. The chance was more than 90%, honestly even way more than 95% that I would vote MDG. Which I did. :) I've never ever ever been more proud of a political choice I've made, even not my non-significant vote for Obama in 2008. :)

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After a few weeks of exploratory negotiations, Høyre has now decided to continue concrete government negotiations with only Fremskrittspartiet. Kristelig Folkeparti og Venstre have committed itself to backing the government, but have opted out of joining the government.