Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on January 29, 2013, 01:58:15 pm



Title: TX-PPP: Gov. Perry (R) struggling, Abbott would do better
Post by: Tender Branson on January 29, 2013, 01:58:15 pm
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Rick Perry's job performance?

Approve ................. .41%
Disapprove............. .54%

...

Bill White......................................................... 47%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 44%

Rick Perry ....................................................... 47%
Julian Castro................................................... 42%

Rick Perry ....................................................... 47%
Wendy Davis................................................... 41%

Rick Perry ....................................................... 47%
Annise Parker ................................................. 40%

...

Greg Abbott .................................................... 46%
Bill White......................................................... 39%

Greg Abbott .................................................... 46%
Julian Castro................................................... 36%

Greg Abbott .................................................... 46%
Wendy Davis................................................... 34%

Greg Abbott .................................................... 47%
Annise Parker ................................................. 35%

...

Do you think Rick Perry should run for President in 2016, or not?

He should........................................................ 14%
He should not.................................................. 79%

...

GOP Governor Primary:

Q3 If the candidates for Governor next year were Greg Abbott and Rick Perry, who would you vote for?

Rick Perry ....................................................... 41%
Greg Abbott .................................................... 38%

Q4 Generally speaking, would you like the Republican candidate for Governor next year to be Rick Perry or someone else?

Rick Perry ....................................................... 41%
Someone else................................................. 47%

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Rick Perry's job performance?

Approve ................. .62%
Disapprove............. .29%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Greg Abbott?

Favorable........................................................ 46%
Unfavorable .................................................... 13%

PPP surveyed 500 Texas voters and an oversample of 400 Republican primary voters
from January 24th to 27th. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-4.4% and +/-
4.9% for the GOP portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or
political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone
interviews.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_129.pdf


Title: Re: TX-PPP: Gov. Perry (R) struggling, Abbott would do better
Post by: tmthforu94 on January 29, 2013, 02:19:55 pm
I like Perry, but if I were a betting man, I'd say that he won't run for reelection, and that'd be a smart decision. Abbott as the nominee would likely end any chance the Democrats have of picking up the seat, allowing us to focus resources elsewhere.


Title: Re: TX-PPP: Gov. Perry (R) struggling, Abbott would do better
Post by: Talleyrand on January 29, 2013, 06:09:46 pm
I like Perry, but if I were a betting man, I'd say that he won't run for reelection, and that'd be a smart decision. Abbott as the nominee would likely end any chance the Democrats have of picking up the seat, allowing us to focus resources elsewhere.

Some people I'm close with have worked for him in the past, and they all say he's not really the type to "go quietly". I doubt he'll retire even if his chances of winning this bout are low.



Title: Re: TX-PPP: Gov. Perry (R) struggling, Abbott would do better
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on January 29, 2013, 06:55:49 pm
ABP: Anybody But Perry!  I despise the man and want Abbott or Dewhurst instead.


Title: Re: TX-PPP: Gov. Perry (R) struggling, Abbott would do better
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 29, 2013, 06:57:10 pm
As I've said before, may the best man win.



Title: Re: TX-PPP: Gov. Perry (R) struggling, Abbott would do better
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 30, 2013, 10:12:27 pm
Perry says Abbott won't challenge him.

http://viralread.com/2013/01/30/rick-perry-says-ag-greg-abbott-wont-run-against-him-if-he-runs-again/


Title: Re: TX-PPP: Gov. Perry (R) struggling, Abbott would do better
Post by: Lief 🐋 on February 07, 2013, 02:36:01 pm
Hopefully Perry run agains. His unpopularity plus the booming Obama economy of Fall 2014 might just be the perfect storm Democrats need in Texas.


Title: Re: TX-PPP: Gov. Perry (R) struggling, Abbott would do better
Post by: Obamanation on February 07, 2013, 05:41:41 pm
Hopefully Perry run agains. His unpopularity plus the booming Obama economy of Fall 2014 might just be the perfect storm Democrats need in Texas.

I just don't see how the eventual Democrat can cut into the Republican margins in the Dallas-Ft Worth metroplex and the Greater Houston (Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown) area enough to offset the rest of the state. The Dem would have to landslide in Dallas county (~65% of the vote) and at least come close to even in Tarrant in order to keep the metroplex close to break-even. Such a candidate would also need to keep Greater Houston a relative draw aka 10-15 point win in Harris County and a 10 point win in Ft. Bend in order to then be able (with Latino South Texas and El Paso) to offset the rest of the state. But we're taking about unheard of margins in urban counties and massively cutting the deficit in rural Texas. I just don't see it unless there is a strong right-wing (perhaps Libertarian) candidate than could take 5-10% of the vote in the general.

AND all that would really be a squeaker. I just don't see it happening...

Texas specialists, does that seem accurate? Anyone have any realistic ideas on how a Dem could win Texas now, in margin terms? Again, I just can't find the votes...


Title: Re: TX-PPP: Gov. Perry (R) struggling, Abbott would do better
Post by: old timey villain on February 07, 2013, 07:23:39 pm
Not from Texas, but I've looked at the previous margins in urban counties and I think you're right. It's hard to find a recent two way gubernatorial race in Texas with an enthusiastic Democratic base so the best I can look at is 2008 and 2012, never mind that 2014 will be a midterm...

1) Dallas is rapidly swinging Dem, and was one of the few urban counties in TX that swung to Obama in 2008 and 2012. I can see a good Democrat getting 60% of the vote there and maybe breaking even in Fort Worth county....maybe

2) There is no way for a Dem to win Harris County right now by more than about 5 points. Obama won there by less than 2 in 2008 and that was arguably the high water mark. Perhaps if the candidate had special appeal in Houston like Bill White then it could be possible. Flipping Fort Bend county seems more likely.

3) He or she must hit 70% in Travis county, tough but not impossible. Obama got 63% there in 2008, but a lot of anti Perry anger there could make this happen.

4) Do very very well with the Hispanic vote in San Antonio and win with 55-60% of the vote in Bexar.

5) Absolutely dominate in south Texas

6) Be competitive with dixiecrats in east Texas (piney woods region)

7) The only hope in west Texas is depressed Republican turnout. They'll get crushed there regardless but with less votes.

If all of this happens, then the Dem has a shot at a very narrow win. But it looks pretty unlikely, especially in a midterm year. I doubt 2014 will be a GOP wave, but there will probably be somewhat of a six year itch. I'd also like to hear from other Texans about all this.


Title: Re: TX-PPP: Gov. Perry (R) struggling, Abbott would do better
Post by: Badger on February 18, 2013, 03:09:29 pm
FWIW: Tarrant County has been almost the perfect bellweather for the state in the last two presidential elections.....


Title: Re: TX-PPP: Gov. Perry (R) struggling, Abbott would do better
Post by: Blind Jaunting on February 18, 2013, 03:11:33 pm
2006: Perry struggling...

...never mind.

2010: Perry struggling...

...oh, never mind.

I believe when I see.


Title: Re: TX-PPP: Gov. Perry (R) struggling, Abbott would do better
Post by: Maxwell on February 18, 2013, 04:18:10 pm
ABP: Anybody But Perry!  I despise the man and want Abbott or Dewhurst instead.

Ted Cruz EMBARASSED Dewhurst, to the point where I don't think he could run again for ANYTHING in Texas. The guy now has loser branded on him and I don't think a comeback is possible.


Title: Re: TX-PPP: Gov. Perry (R) struggling, Abbott would do better
Post by: Jbrase on February 18, 2013, 04:25:13 pm
Dewhurst is not about to make a comeback after his last tasteless campaign.


Title: Re: TX-PPP: Gov. Perry (R) struggling, Abbott would do better
Post by: sg0508 on February 18, 2013, 07:43:18 pm
It's really amazing that in a state of that size, the Democratic bench is pretty weak. 


Title: Re: TX-PPP: Gov. Perry (R) struggling, Abbott would do better
Post by: Jbrase on February 19, 2013, 08:31:27 pm
It's really amazing that in a state of that size, the Democratic bench is pretty weak. 

The Democrats fail here because their current strategy is to do nothing and when Texas turns Hispanic in a few years expect 60+% of the hispanic vote. Meanwhile the TX GOP is actually working to win over hispanics and actually working to keep hard R counties as they are. This is not an endorsement of the TX GOP (though I am technically a card carrying member), but just the way it is. The TX Dems are losing and will continue to lose TX until either the TX GOP find a way to lose (such as keeping Perry on for another 4 years) or the TX Dems actually start working for votes.


Title: Re: TX-PPP: Gov. Perry (R) struggling, Abbott would do better
Post by: A-Bob on February 20, 2013, 03:42:49 pm
I'd say he shouldn't and won't run and if he did it'd be an uphill battle. But we all saw the race against Hutchison last time.