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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Obamanation on February 08, 2013, 05:11:27 pm



Title: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Obamanation on February 08, 2013, 05:11:27 pm
Clinton vs. Rubio

()

EDIT: Adding most recent PA-PPP poll

Clinton vs. Ryan

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EDIT: Adding most recent PA-PPP poll

Clinton vs. Christie

()

EDIT: Adding most recent PA-Qunnipiac poll


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on February 09, 2013, 02:16:09 am
hahaha awesome


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: LiberalJunkie on February 09, 2013, 03:07:31 am
DOMINATING


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 09, 2013, 10:18:10 am
Iowa, PPP. PPP is polling North Carolina and Louisiana this weekend, and could get some interesting results. 

Clinton vs. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Rubio

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 09, 2013, 10:26:49 am
Unless someone utterly money-bombs the Republican primaries on his behalf, I can't see Christie winning the Republican nomination. Rubio may be over-hyped.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on February 09, 2013, 02:34:13 pm
Rubio is an early frontrunner.  He will make a fool of himself in the debates.  Guy's a lightweight.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Obamanation on February 14, 2013, 01:53:55 pm
Louisiana - PPP

Clinton.......46%
Rubio.........43%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_LA_021413.pdf

Clinton vs. Rubio

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Buh her emails! on February 14, 2013, 01:55:35 pm
President Clinton 2017-2025!! :p


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 14, 2013, 05:41:09 pm
You can add Louisiana to the list of states where Hillary Clinton might be competitive with a 2016 Presidential bid, at least at this stage. She has a 46/44 favorability rating in the state and has 3 points lead over Jindal (48/45) and Rubio (46/43) in hypothetical match ups. She ties Ryan at 46.

Clinton vs. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Rubio

()



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: JerryArkansas on February 14, 2013, 05:47:31 pm
I can't wait for PPP to do a poll in Arkansas.  I did a poll late last year for school and I had Hillary winning the state with 57% of the vote against Rubio


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 14, 2013, 05:56:24 pm
Has PPP stopped including Christie in their general election matchups because he's not competitive in the primary?


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: retromike22 on February 14, 2013, 10:20:03 pm
Why don't you just edit the first post each time a new poll is added, instead of making new posts for each new poll? (just an idea, not a complaint)


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 18, 2013, 02:11:06 pm
Re: Rubio

His performance of the rebuttal to the President's State of the Union speech indicates that he is not ready for prime time. Republicans surely liked it for policy issues, but everything else left much to be desired.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 18, 2013, 02:27:51 pm
Quote
With over 3,400 respondents, the poll has a national scope as well as ample sampling of such traditionally under-polled groups as African-Americans and Latinos


...Correction noted, and the invalid material is removed.

PPP polled Georgia and Montana this weekend. We may find such interesting.  


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 18, 2013, 06:01:15 pm
Poll questions released Wednesday also covered the 2012 presidential election results, attitudes toward women in the workplace and hypothetical 2016 presidential election match-ups involving the possible candidacy of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

The poll results showed Clinton with leads over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (61 percent to 32 percent), Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (61 percent to 30 percent) and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (58 percent to 34 percent).

http://blaircenterclintonschoolpoll.uark.edu/6760.php


This is a national poll, not an Arkansas poll.  And we discussed it two weeks ago, when it was first released:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=169067.0


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Obamanation on February 20, 2013, 04:03:54 pm
I am updating the map at the start of the thread. So far it will take the most recent poll, once we start getting a greater volume of polls, I'll average the last 3 polls per state, or so...

Feel free to add comments, as usual.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 20, 2013, 10:39:08 pm
Georgia (PPP)

Quote
Q16 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Newt
Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 51%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 44%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%

Q17 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 49%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%

Q18 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 50%
Paul Ryan ....................................................... 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%

Clinton vs. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Rubio

()


If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton. 


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 21, 2013, 07:37:25 pm
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?

Favorable........................................................ 44%
Unfavorable .................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%
Q7 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 42%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_022113.pdf

Montana hasn't voted for the Democratic nominee for President since 1992, when the state split 37-35-26 Clinton-Bush-Perot. Perot likely took more votes from the elder Bush that year. It went 44-41-16 Dole-Clinton-Perot in 1996. Dubya won it 55-33 in 2000 and 59-39 in 2004. The highest percentage for any Democratic nominee for President since the LBJ blowout was 47% for Barack Obama. Kennedy lost it with a slightly-larger percentage than Obama in 1960. Of course, Presidential politics in America before 1992 now might as well be ancient history. Don't let the close election in 2008 fool you: it will go D for President only in a blowout.

Montana is a swing state with its Favorite Son its recent Governor Brian Schweitzer, but three electoral votes haven't decided a Presidential election in a very long time.   If he is a VP nominee he might not swing the state because it isn't that close; his value for Biden or Clinton would likely be in places where populist tendencies have hibernated under President Obama.

Clinton vs. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Rubio

()


If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 28, 2013, 05:52:19 pm
Quote
Other notes from Michigan:

-By a 45/35 margin voters think the state should keep the current system of all electoral votes going to the statewide winner rather than changing to an allocation by Congressional District model. 22% of Republicans think the state should keep winner take all, while only 12% of Democrats support switching to a by district model.

-Michigan voters support stricter gun laws in general by a 52/39 margin, and on the specific issue of an assault weapons ban they're supportive by a 54/37 margin. There is near universal support among Democrats for the assault weapons ban, and even 36% of Republicans support it. The NRA has a 38/45 favorability rating in the state.

-Barack Obama's approval rating is 48/47. Debbie Stabenow's is 51/36. The late Gerald Ford has a 57/12 favorability rating in the state, including 47/18 with Democrats.

-Hillary Clinton at this early stage looks like she would be a strong favorite in Michigan in 2016. She leads Paul Ryan 52/41 and Marco Rubio 51/37, in both cases margins even larger than what Barack Obama won by last fall.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/03/michigan-miscellany.html#more

....The Republicans could probably win Michigan if they nominated Gerald Ford, the last Republican to win the state in a close election...

()

Clinton vs. Rubio

()


If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 08, 2013, 11:44:14 pm
I figure Ryan would get about the same results as Rubio.  I have seen nothing on Christie lately.



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 09, 2013, 08:00:02 am
I think the trend map is more interesting than the straight up who's ahead map.  We now have quite a few Clinton vs. Rubio state polls.  Just counting polls that PPP has conducted this year on Clinton vs. Rubio, we have:

national, Jan. 3-6: Clinton +14
Florida, Jan. 11-13: Clinton +4
Minnesota, Jan. 18-20: Clinton +13
Texas, Jan. 24-27: Clinton +1
national, Jan. 31-Feb. 3: Clinton +8
Alaska, Feb. 4-5: Clinton +1
Louisiana, Feb. 8-12: Clinton +3
Montana, Feb. 15-17: Rubio +8
Georgia, Feb. 15-18: Clinton +3
Kansas, Feb. 21-24: Rubio +5
Wisconsin, Feb. 21-24: Clinton +14
Michigan, Mar. 2-4: Clinton +14

We also have the recent Quinnipiac national poll:
national, Feb. 27-Mar. 4: Clinton +16

So some disagreement about how much Clinton leads by nationally.  PPP says 8 points, and Quinnipiac says 16.  If you assume that the true national margin is the Clinton by 8 seen in that Jan. 31-Feb. 3 poll, then relative to the 2012 election, the trend would be:

Florida: R+1 (Rubio's home state)
Minnesota: D+1
Texas: D+12
Alaska: D+11
Louisiana: D+16
Montana: D+1
Georgia: D+7
Kansas: D+13
Wisconsin: D+3
Michigan: +/-0

But that doesn't seem right.  Not every state can be trending Democratic.  Remember, "trend" all has to balance out.  If, instead, we assume that the Clinton by 16 nationally number from Quinnipiac is closer to the truth, then you just add 8 points to the GOP side in every state:

Florida: R+9 (Rubio's home state)
Minnesota: R+7
Texas: D+4
Alaska: D+3
Louisiana: D+8
Montana: R+7
Georgia: R+1
Kansas: D+5
Wisconsin: R+5
Michigan: R+8

That map would be (ignore shading):

()

Perhaps that's closer to the truth, though the answer's probably somewhere in between.  If you assume that the Clinton by 14 national margin that PPP got in early Jan. is the true national margin, then you flip Georgia on the trend map:

()

There's either a north/south divide here, or a Dem. state / GOP state divide, with the more Democratic states trending Republican and vice versa.

Or, to put it another way, the polls show that, as of today, Clinton would beat Rubio by much more than the margin by which Obama beat Romney.  But most of those extra votes she would get are in the more Republican states, perhaps especially in the South.  Obama may have come closer to maxing out the Democratic vote in the North than the South.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 09, 2013, 09:11:13 am
One way to look at it is to say that Barack Obama, although an above-average vote-getter, gets polarizing results. That could be race (for which he is obviously excused) or his unusual ability to win northern suburban votes but unusual incapacity for winning rural votes. Hillary Clinton isn't as polarizing a figure, or she can win the sorts of voters that he husband won but Obama could not reach.

If she is able to win the sorts of voters who went for Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012 and the sorts of voters that her husband won in 1992 and 1996 but Gore, Kerry, and Obama lost beginning in 2000, then this is what I can predict for 2016:

Clinton vs. Rubio

()

At this point I have no idea of how Arizona, Indiana, Mississippi, or two of the three Congressional districts of Nebraska would go. It could also be that Marco Rubio fails badly to live up to the early hype and will get wiped out early.


If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.   




Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 13, 2013, 10:06:23 pm
PPP, Pennsylvania.

I have seen little on Clinton vs. Christie lately. Hillary clobbers everyone else in Pennsylvania:
Quote
Q13
If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
52%
Hillary Clinton
..................................................
37%
Marco Rubio
...................................................
12%
Not sure
..........................................................
Q14
If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?
52%
Hillary Clinton
..................................................
40%
Paul Ryan
.......................................................
8%
Not sure
..........................................................
Q15
If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
55%
Hillary Clinton
..................................................
38%
Rick Santorum
................................................
7%
Not sure


H. Clinton v. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Rubio

()


If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: BaldEagle1991 on March 13, 2013, 10:51:25 pm
I just love to see Texas go for Clinton in these maps.

Although I don't really think it would happen.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 13, 2013, 11:01:22 pm
Where do the Iowa numbers here come from?  I don't see a general election poll for Iowa out there, but I might have missed it.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: publicunofficial on March 14, 2013, 12:09:52 am
Should this thread have a map for Hillary vs. Rand Paul? He's being featured in a lot more polls than Christie is.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 14, 2013, 08:07:14 am
Should this thread have a map for Hillary vs. Rand Paul? He's being featured in a lot more polls than Christie is.

It seems that most Republicans other than Chris Christie -- such as Paul Ryan -- do about the same as Marco Rubio.  So far we have little other contrast in likely results between most Republican prospects other than Chris Christie with Hillary Clinton. 


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 14, 2013, 08:11:45 am
Where do the Iowa numbers here come from?  I don't see a general election poll for Iowa out there, but I might have missed it.



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 14, 2013, 09:42:09 am
Where do the Iowa numbers here come from?  I don't see a general election poll for Iowa out there, but I might have missed it.

There was no Iowa general election poll.

I think he used the national numbers from PPP for Iowa, because they were in the same release.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_National_207.pdf


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 15, 2013, 01:12:47 pm
Quinnipiac -- H Clinton 47. Christie 42.

I have seen little on Clinton vs. Christie lately. Hillary clobbers everyone else in Pennsylvania:



H. Clinton v. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Rubio

()


If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  


[/quote]


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 15, 2013, 01:15:41 pm
pbrower, what is that Iowa poll in your map ?

I didn't find an Iowa poll. Where did you get it from ?


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 17, 2013, 12:06:25 pm
Quinnipiac -- H Clinton 47. Christie 42.

pbrower, what is that Iowa poll in your map ?

I didn't find an Iowa poll. Where did you get it from ?

I checked. Dirty spectacles.



H. Clinton v. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Rubio

()


If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  




Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 19, 2013, 07:18:53 pm

Quote
In an early look at the 2016 presidential race in New York State, voters back former Senator and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton over New Jersey Gov. Christie 59 - 32 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=1867

Nothing about Rubio, Ryan, or others who have almost no chance of winning New York.


H. Clinton v. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Rubio

()


If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  





Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Mr. Illini on March 20, 2013, 09:07:38 pm
Anything on Rand Paul? Would love to see how he fairs against Hillary. If he fairs much better than the other GOP potentials, he could use that as a great tool in the primary.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 21, 2013, 11:14:12 am
Anything on Rand Paul? Would love to see how he fairs against Hillary. If he fairs much better than the other GOP potentials, he could use that as a great tool in the primary.

Well, PPP is doing a new national poll next week.

If Rand Paul finishes among the first 2 in their GOP primary poll, then Paul will be used in every state matchup against Hillary until their next national GOP poll.

PPP always uses the first 2 GOP candidates for their state polls and 1 or 2 local people against Hillary.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Endy on March 21, 2013, 09:29:43 pm
Anything on Rand Paul? Would love to see how he fairs against Hillary. If he fairs much better than the other GOP potentials, he could use that as a great tool in the primary.

Well, PPP is doing a new national poll next week.

If Rand Paul finishes among the first 2 in their GOP primary poll, then Paul will be used in every state matchup against Hillary until their next national GOP poll.

PPP always uses the first 2 GOP candidates for their state polls and 1 or 2 local people against Hillary.

I wonder how's Jindal doing....


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 22, 2013, 01:44:33 am

Likely terrible.  All we have is his home state:

Clinton: 48
Jindal: 45

Clinton: 46
Rubio: 43

Clinton: 46
Ryan: 46

With the favourite son effect, he only does as well as other candidates, meaning he'd likely be doing worse than either Rubio or Ryan against Hillary in other states.

I thought he meant how Jindal was doing in the national primary matchup.

In any case, anyone want to guess what PPP's national primary numbers will look like on the GOP side?  My guess is Rubio in first and Paul in second, meaning that they'll include Paul in the general election matchups for a while?


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 22, 2013, 01:47:40 am

Likely terrible.  All we have is his home state:

Clinton: 48
Jindal: 45

Clinton: 46
Rubio: 43

Clinton: 46
Ryan: 46

With the favourite son effect, he only does as well as other candidates, meaning he'd likely be doing worse than either Rubio or Ryan against Hillary in other states.

I thought he meant how Jindal was doing in the national primary matchup.

In any case, anyone want to guess what PPP's national primary numbers will look like on the GOP side?  My guess is Rubio in first and Paul in second, meaning that they'll include Paul in the general election matchups for a while?


Their FL poll suggests that Paul might even be 1st in their national primary poll.

I say:

1) Paul
2) Rubio
3) Christie
4) Ryan
5) Bush


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 23, 2013, 01:47:15 am
Their FL poll suggests that Paul might even be 1st in their national primary poll.

I say:

1) Paul
2) Rubio
3) Christie
4) Ryan
5) Bush

Maybe.  We don't have a lot to go on.  The PA poll was also taken after the filibuster, and Paul was at 17% in that.  For the record, PPP's last national poll (pre-filibuster) was:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=169083.0

Rubio 22%
Ryan 15%
Bush 13%
Christie 13%
Huckabee 11%
Paul 10%
Jindal 4%
Perry 3%
Martinez 1%

For this one, I could see a close race between Paul and Rubio for first place.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: DS0816 on March 27, 2013, 03:39:40 pm
One way to look at it is to say that Barack Obama, although an above-average vote-getter, gets polarizing results. That could be race (for which he is obviously excused) or his unusual ability to win northern suburban votes but unusual incapacity for winning rural votes. Hillary Clinton isn't as polarizing a figure, or she can win the sorts of voters that he husband won but Obama could not reach.

If she is able to win the sorts of voters who went for Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012 and the sorts of voters that her husband won in 1992 and 1996 but Gore, Kerry, and Obama lost beginning in 2000, then this is what I can predict for 2016:

Clinton vs. Rubio

()

At this point I have no idea of how Arizona, Indiana, Mississippi, or two of the three Congressional districts of Nebraska would go. It could also be that Marco Rubio fails badly to live up to the early hype and will get wiped out early.


If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.   




For a Democrat to win Texas one or two things happen:

1. Win the U.S. Popular Vote with at least 57 percent.

2. See Texas's demographics move sharply away from being advantageous with the Republicans and without needing so much rope to bring it in.


If Texas is going Democratic, so is Montana. So is Indiana. And so are North Dakota and South Dakota and the first two Congressional Districts in the state of Nebraska. Nebraska, statewide and with the 3rd Congressional District, and Kansas would be reduced to (at best) a 5-point hold for the losing Republican.

If Texas goes Democratic, it's going to be a 40-state [plus] landslide election.

Since 1912 -- dating back 100 years -- South Carolina has voted the same as Mississippi and Alabama in all but two elections: 1960 and 1968. If ever a split, Ala. and Miss. -- which have voted alike in all elections since their first vote in 1820 (exception is 1840) -- would stay Republicans (because, long term, they vote opposite Vermont) while S.C. would flip Democratic. This is like Ind. + N.D. + S.D. + Neb. + Kan. = same since 1920. Those five states voted the same in all of 1920 to 2004. In 2008, Barack Obama flipped Ind. and Neb. #02. It was a difference in tipping point.

In recent elections, S.C. has been about 15 points more Republican than the country. Tex. has been about 20 points. We can't hold them all to a tee … but if Texas is willing to flip Democratic, it would be wise to look out for S.C. But for this to be happening, it's a likelihood than Montana will have already flipped. It would be such a national tide that Montana would come in. It's just that Democrats should be going after Montana.

If all of this is happening … Arizona is there for the Democrats.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 28, 2013, 10:56:33 am

For a Democrat to win Texas one or two things happen:

1. Win the U.S. Popular Vote with at least 57 percent.

2. See Texas's demographics move sharply away from being advantageous with the Republicans and without needing so much rope to bring it in.


If Texas is going Democratic, so is Montana. So is Indiana. And so are North Dakota and South Dakota and the first two Congressional Districts in the state of Nebraska. Nebraska, statewide and with the 3rd Congressional District, and Kansas would be reduced to (at best) a 5-point hold for the losing Republican.

If Texas goes Democratic, it's going to be a 40-state [plus] landslide election.

Since 1912 -- dating back 100 years -- South Carolina has voted the same as Mississippi and Alabama in all but two elections: 1960 and 1968. If ever a split, Ala. and Miss. -- which have voted alike in all elections since their first vote in 1820 (exception is 1840) -- would stay Republicans (because, long term, they vote opposite Vermont) while S.C. would flip Democratic. This is like Ind. + N.D. + S.D. + Neb. + Kan. = same since 1920. Those five states voted the same in all of 1920 to 2004. In 2008, Barack Obama flipped Ind. and Neb. #02. It was a difference in tipping point.

In recent elections, S.C. has been about 15 points more Republican than the country. Tex. has been about 20 points. We can't hold them all to a tee … but if Texas is willing to flip Democratic, it would be wise to look out for S.C. But for this to be happening, it's a likelihood than Montana will have already flipped. It would be such a national tide that Montana would come in. It's just that Democrats should be going after Montana.

If all of this is happening … Arizona is there for the Democrats.

I just have no information for Arizona, Indiana, Mississippi, or either of the two Congressional districts of eastern Nebraska, and there are no good analogues for either state or those two districts. Hillary was polled for Kansas, a good analogue for Plains states other than Texas. I saw PPP polls for Montana, Louisiana, and Texas. Show me polls for Arizona, Indiana, and Mississippi and I don't white them out for lack of data. I have Missouri as a likely win for Hillary because she is ahead in Kentucky.

Texas has no good analogue, and my best guess is to describe it as "Kansas grafted onto Florida". Texas east of the I-35 corridor and Greater El Paso is probably analogous to Florida in its voting; Texas west of the I-35 corridor except for the Rio Grande Valley is much like Kansas.  The quadrilateral formed by Dallas/Fort Worth at the north, Houston in the southeast, Laredo in the southwest and Brownsville in the south would be a  swing state in most Presidential and Senatorial elections if it were a state. Kansas? We all know about Kansas. A Democratic nominee for President would have to win Florida by about 8% to break even in Texas.

If Hillary Clinton would defeat Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush in Florida, she would do just the same in Texas where those two are not well known. 

If Hillary Clinton can win Texas, she would achieve what her husband came close to doing twice but never quite did. Graft the (Bill) Clinton-but-not-Obama voters onto the Obama voters, and a Democratic nominee for President (1) gets about 57% of the popular vote, (2) wins 40 or so states, one of which is Texas, and (3) shows that the political reality of the South has changed dramatically.

re: Indiana

Indiana usually says something; it is about 10% more R than the rest of America in almost every Presidential election. Barack Obama campaigned heavily in Indiana and sank vast resources into the state to win it in 2008 and did not do so in 2012. He lost it by 10% in 2012 -- which should be a huge disappointment. Right?

Year     margin   

2012       10R
2008         1D
2004       21R
2000       16R
1996         6R*
1992         6R*
1988       20R
1984       24R
1980       18R*
1976         8R
1972       33R
1968       12R*
1964       12D[/b]
1960       10R
1956       20R
1952       17R
1948         1R
1944         7R
1940         1R

*Independent or third-party nominee may have had an effect. Bold is for the Democratic nominee winning the state. Bold indicates that the Democratic nominee won the state. Dark shades indicate electoral blowouts.

Wrong. Barack Obama campaigned extensively in Indiana in 2008 and won it -- and was effective enough in winning a raft of states that neither Gore nor Kerry won. He stayed out of Indiana in 2012 and lost it because he needed a laser focus on a small number of states that could decide the election. If he was going to win Indiana he was going to win Ohio anyway, but Ohio was easier for him to win against an opponent who could overpower him with campaign funds.   

Indiana has gone for the Republican nominee for President in 18 of the last 20 chances. This goes back to two elections involving FDR. Democratic nominees have won the popular vote 9 times and the Presidency 8 times -- and Republican nominees have won the popular vote 11 times and the Presidency 12 times.

The Republicans seem unable to win the Presidency if the Democrat loses the state by less than 11%. If Indiana votes by more than 11% for the Republican, then the Republican wins at the least the Electoral College (which is everything).

If you see the Republican nominee winning Indiana early in 2016 on Election Day but by a comparatively-small margin (let us say 7%), then it will be a bad night for the GOP.

   
 


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 01, 2013, 09:35:36 pm
Their FL poll suggests that Paul might even be 1st in their national primary poll.

I say:

1) Paul
2) Rubio
3) Christie
4) Ryan
5) Bush

Maybe.  We don't have a lot to go on.  The PA poll was also taken after the filibuster, and Paul was at 17% in that.  For the record, PPP's last national poll (pre-filibuster) was:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=169083.0

Rubio 22%
Ryan 15%
Bush 13%
Christie 13%
Huckabee 11%
Paul 10%
Jindal 4%
Perry 3%
Martinez 1%

For this one, I could see a close race between Paul and Rubio for first place.


PPP tweets:

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/318823239453376513

Quote
Rand Paul's favorability with GOP primary voters nationally: 60%. Chris Christie's: 41%

That actually represents no meaningful change from their February poll, which had Christie at 42% favorable and Paul at 61% favorable among GOP primary voters.  Remains to be seen whether the lack of change in Paul's favorability portends a lack of gains in the primary matchup question.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Spiral on April 01, 2013, 10:54:45 pm
Their FL poll suggests that Paul might even be 1st in their national primary poll.

I say:

1) Paul
2) Rubio
3) Christie
4) Ryan
5) Bush

Maybe.  We don't have a lot to go on.  The PA poll was also taken after the filibuster, and Paul was at 17% in that.  For the record, PPP's last national poll (pre-filibuster) was:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=169083.0

Rubio 22%
Ryan 15%
Bush 13%
Christie 13%
Huckabee 11%
Paul 10%
Jindal 4%
Perry 3%
Martinez 1%

For this one, I could see a close race between Paul and Rubio for first place.


PPP tweets:

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/318823239453376513

Quote
Rand Paul's favorability with GOP primary voters nationally: 60%. Chris Christie's: 41%

That actually represents no meaningful change from their February poll, which had Christie at 42% favorable and Paul at 61% favorable among GOP primary voters.  Remains to be seen whether the lack of change in Paul's favorability portends a lack of gains in the primary matchup question.

I think that it's quite possible that Paul will have a significant bump in his polling numbers despite the static approval ratings. Looking back for comparison, this PPP poll from last year in April (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_National_417.pdf) shows Rubio with 53% at the time and having 10% of the vote, and the last national one (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_National_207.pdf) shows 54% approving with his vote share more than doubling at 22%.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 06, 2013, 07:42:45 pm
Update on my trend map.  Here are the latest PPP polls:

Pennsylvania, Mar. 8-10: Clinton +15
Florida: Mar. 15-18: Clinton +16
national: Mar. 27-30: Clinton +7

That 7 point margin for Clinton just doesn't mesh with the statewide polls.  You can't have every state trending for the Dems.  That doesn't make any sense.  I'll stick with my Clinton by 14 points over Rubio estimate, which seems closer to reality, if we take into account the statewide polls.  In that case, the trends (for state polls conducted by PPP since Jan. 1) relative to 2012 would be:

Minnesota: R+5
Texas: D+6
Alaska: D+5
Louisiana: D+10
Montana: R+5
Georgia: D+1
Kansas: D+7
Wisconsin: R+3
Michigan: R+6
Pennsylvania: no trend
Florida: D+5

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 15, 2013, 09:04:32 am
So we now have a new Clinton-Rubio PPP poll of KY:

Kentucky, Apr. 5-7: Clinton +6

Which more or less confirms their poll from 2012, and suggests a massive swing towards the Dems from 2012.  Much bigger than we've seen for any other state.  Again, assuming a national margin of Clinton by 14 points over Rubio, current trend map would be:

Minnesota: R+5
Texas: D+6
Alaska: D+5
Louisiana: D+10
Montana: R+5
Georgia: D+1
Kansas: D+7
Wisconsin: R+3
Michigan: R+6
Pennsylvania: no trend
Florida: D+5
Kentucky: D+19

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 22, 2013, 01:51:48 pm
NC is wrong. Hillary is ahead.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 22, 2013, 09:22:34 pm



Correction made here:

H. Clinton v. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Rubio

()


If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  




Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 23, 2013, 06:48:21 pm
Colorado checks in:

Q5 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?

48% Hillary Clinton
..................................................
44% Marco Rubio
...................................................
8% Not sure

()

Clinton vs. Rubio

()


If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 27, 2013, 08:28:55 am
Updating the trend map.  We now have:

Colorado, April 11-14: Clinton +3
North Carolina, April 11-14: Clinton +7
New Hampshire, April 19-21: Clinton +14

Again, assuming national Clinton margin of 14 points, trend map would now be:

Minnesota: R+5
Texas: D+6
Alaska: D+5
Louisiana: D+10
Montana: R+5
Georgia: D+1
Kansas: D+7
Wisconsin: R+3
Michigan: R+6
Pennsylvania: no trend
Florida: D+5
Kentucky: D+19
Colorado: R+13
North Carolina: R+1
New Hampshire: R+2

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 29, 2013, 01:43:59 pm
Clinton vs. Rubio

()



Clinton vs. Ryan

()

Clinton vs. Christie

()




CO, NH, NC added. 


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Oak Hills on May 12, 2013, 11:13:54 am
If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  

Why do you keep ending your posts with exactly the same phrase?


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Solidarity Forever on May 12, 2013, 11:19:28 am
If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  

Why do you keep ending your posts with exactly the same phrase?

Probably copy-pasted.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 16, 2013, 09:57:02 pm
Virginia, Quinnipiac. Clinton overpowers Rubio and Ryan -- nothing on Christie.

Wisconsin, Marquette University Law School.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/MLSP16Toplines.pdf

Clinton 49%
Ryan 44%

Clinton 47%
Christie 40%

Clinton 50%
Walker 42%

Clinton 51%
Rubio 35%

Clinton vs. Rubio

()



Clinton vs. Ryan

()

Clinton vs. Christie

()






Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on June 10, 2013, 12:21:36 pm
Quote
If Hillary Clinton's the Democratic candidate for President at least for now it looks like the state will remain firmly in the blue column. The only Republican who even comes within single digits of her is Christie, who still trails 44-38. The other 3 trail by margins closer to Barack Obama's 16 point margin of victory in 2008 than his 9 point victory from last fall- Clinton is up 14 on Bush at 51/37, 17 on Rubio at 53/36, and 20 on Paul at 55/35.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/06/michigan-miscellany.html

Clinton vs. Rubio

()



Clinton vs. Ryan

()

Clinton vs. Christie

()







Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: JerryArkansas on June 12, 2013, 02:54:11 am
I think that you should add Paul to this map, and here is what the map looks like right now with him and Hillary.

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on June 12, 2013, 11:35:54 am
Clinton vs. Rubio

()



Clinton vs. Ryan

()

Clinton vs. Christie

()

I think that you should add Paul to this map, and here is what the map looks like right now with him and Hillary.

()

Good idea, as there are enough data points to satisfy me.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on June 12, 2013, 11:43:04 am
Now in alphabetical order:

Clinton vs. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Paul

()


Clinton vs. Rubio

()



Clinton vs. Ryan

()

White indicates a tie.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on June 12, 2013, 08:48:03 pm
Updated Clinton-Rubio trend map from PPP polls...

Virginia, May 24-26: Clinton +4
Michigan, May 30-June 2: Clinton +17

Assuming national Clinton margin of 13 points, trend map would now be:

Minnesota: R+4
Texas: D+7
Alaska: D+6
Louisiana: D+11
Montana: R+4
Georgia: D+2
Kansas: D+8
Wisconsin: R+2
Pennsylvania: D+1
Florida: D+6
Kentucky: D+20
Colorado: R+12
North Carolina: no trend
New Hampshire: R+1
Virginia: R+9
Michigan: R+2

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on June 13, 2013, 05:06:53 pm
We have Hillary against three different potential nominees. I can see some patterns.

Against Christie -- would Hillary really win Texas? She does win one of three imaginable tipping-point states (Pennsylvania) No way does she win Pennsylvania and Texas and still lose. Otherwise we see few states --all of which Hillary wins.

Against Paul -- she makes Kentucky close. It is possible to lose one's home state and win the Presidential election (Al Gore came close). But Kentucky is one state that Republicans absolutely must win to have a chance. He is also losing North Carolina, a state that Democratic nominees have won twice in nearly fifty years. Ugh!

Against Rubio -- she seems to combine just about every state that Obama won in 2008... and that Carter won in 1976. That would stick Rubio with about 50 electoral votes -- and fewer if Arizona goes. That would be like LBJ in 1964 in electoral results. Rubio loses his own state -- Florida -- but that could be the least of his problems.

Against Ryan -- she picks off the entire Atlantic seaboard except perhaps South Carolina. Ryan  comes to a virtual tie in Louisiana, the most Catholic state in the South except for Florida...


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on June 14, 2013, 12:35:21 pm
44-41 Christie/Clinton
46-45 Rubio/Clinton

48-32 Christie/Biden
48-35 Rubio/Biden

Favorables:

49-17 Christie
39-22 Rubio
53-44 Clinton
39-49 Biden



http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=1908

Clinton vs. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Paul

()


Clinton vs. Rubio

()



Clinton vs. Ryan

()

White indicates a tie.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on June 17, 2013, 09:19:29 pm
PPP 2016 poll of Michigan:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MI_610.pdf

Clinton 51%
Bush 37%

Clinton 44%
Christie 38%

Clinton 55%
Paul 35%

Clinton 53%
Rubio 36%

Clinton vs. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Paul

()


Clinton vs. Rubio

()



Clinton vs. Ryan

()

White indicates a tie.



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Knives on June 18, 2013, 01:33:30 am
I don't understand people from Colorado...


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on June 19, 2013, 06:32:35 am
I don't understand people from Colorado...

No wonder with all the Mexicans there and their Spanish ...


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on June 19, 2013, 11:47:50 am
I don't understand people from Colorado...

No wonder with all the Mexicans there and their Spanish ...

Possible explanation. If Quinnipiac can allow polling in Spanish, then its results could easily align with the sorts of results that PPP comes up with. But it does poll Florida, which has a large Spanish-speaking population.

Any poll that undercounts Spanish-speaking people will be R-friendly in Colorado. But Colorado gets polled often, and even at that Q can adjust its methodology to allow people to respond to questions in Spanish.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on June 19, 2013, 12:00:04 pm
Florida, Quinnipiac

Clinton 53%
Rubio 41%

Clinton   50%
(Jeb) Bush 43%

(Biden fares badly; nothing on Christie, Paul, or Ryan). If Hillary Clinton decisively defeats Favorite Son Republicans in Florida, she probably beats any other Republican nominee in Florida.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1910

Clinton vs. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Paul

()


Clinton vs. Rubio

()



Clinton vs. Ryan

()

White indicates a tie.


[/quote]


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: JerryArkansas on June 27, 2013, 04:54:35 pm
OH-Quinnipiac

Christie 42%
Clinton 42%

Clinton 47%
Paul 44%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1914

Clinton vs. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Paul

()


Clinton vs. Rubio

()



Clinton vs. Ryan

()

White indicates a tie.


[/quote]


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on July 03, 2013, 12:16:17 pm
Texas, PPP


Quote
Q14   If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?

38% Hillary Clinton

47% Chris Christie

14% Not sure

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_703.pdf

(Hillary is shown against Christie in this poll and against imaginable Favorite-Son candidates - and not against Paul, Rubio, or Ryan.



Clinton vs. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Paul

()


Clinton vs. Rubio

()



Clinton vs. Ryan

()

White indicates a tie.




Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: barfbag on July 05, 2013, 08:03:10 pm
Am I the only one who thinks it's too early to call the 2016 race for anyone?


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on July 05, 2013, 10:50:47 pm
Am I the only one who thinks it's too early to call the 2016 race for anyone?

No. Everyone knew in the spring of 1988 that George H W Bush was going to lose to Mike Dukakis. Whoops!

At this point I would not call a race between Chris Christie and Hillary Clinton anything but too close to predict. But the maps clearly show that Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, and Paul Ryan are not Presidential material. Hillary Clinton is.

Note the tie between Hillary Clinton and Chris Christie in Ohio. Ohio is about as close to a microcosm of America as any state can be, and has voted with the winner in all but two Presidential elections in the last century. Maybe Quinnipiac has some kinks to iron out in its Colorado and Ohio polls -- but Q did well in 2012.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: barfbag on July 06, 2013, 01:44:36 am
Am I the only one who thinks it's too early to call the 2016 race for anyone?

No. Everyone knew in the spring of 1988 that George H W Bush was going to lose to Mike Dukakis. Whoops!

At this point I would not call a race between Chris Christie and Hillary Clinton anything but too close to predict. But the maps clearly show that Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, and Paul Ryan are not Presidential material. Hillary Clinton is.

Note the tie between Hillary Clinton and Chris Christie in Ohio. Ohio is about as close to a microcosm of America as any state can be, and has voted with the winner in all but two Presidential elections in the last century. Maybe Quinnipiac has some kinks to iron out in its Colorado and Ohio polls -- but Q did well in 2012.

Q was surprising because they pretty much had a Kerry landslide. Marco Rubio could easily win the presidency but I'm not predicting him or anyone to do so. Chris Christie and Hillary Clinton is a good possibility but Ben-Ghazi could come back when she least expects it. She also has a lot of ties to her "husband" not always in good ways. I think the map is very interesting as it shows a very typical election with all things being equal. The only thing is that things are never equal. Every election and in pretty much every state there are circumstances effecting voters. I agree Paul Ryan will lose early to in the middle of the primaries and so will Rand Paul. If Bob McDonnell was more popular he'd have a chance too. I can't think of a single Democrat who is electable in 2016 besides Hillary Clinton so if she runs she should be the nominee.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Flake on July 06, 2013, 05:44:54 am
I think Cory Booker is a qualified nominee for the democrats, the only problem is that he has such a low name recognition outside of the northeast that he couldn't win the primaries.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: barfbag on July 06, 2013, 06:07:08 pm
I think Cory Booker is a qualified nominee for the democrats, the only problem is that he has such a low name recognition outside of the northeast that he couldn't win the primaries.

Name recognition is huge in primaries. By the general election both candidates have 95% name recognition or close to it. It's all speculation right now but fun to think about.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on July 11, 2013, 04:47:43 pm
July 5-7, 2013
Survey of 668 Iowa voters

Iowa Survey Results (PPP)

Q1If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?

43%  Hillary Clinton

36% Chris Christie

21% Not sure

Q2
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?

48% Hillary Clinton

37% Rand Paul

14% Not sure

Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?

49% Hillary Clinton

40% Paul Ryan

11% Not sure

Q5 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?

47% Hillary Clinton

35% Marco Rubio

18% Not sure

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_Iowa_7111.pdf



Clinton vs. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Paul

()


Clinton vs. Rubio

()



Clinton vs. Ryan

()

White indicates a tie.





Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on July 17, 2013, 06:33:52 am
pbrower, if you update the Clinton vs. Christie map with VA, then include the MT, NY and NH polls as well:

Christie+5 over Hillary in MT

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Montana

Hillary+5 over Christie in NH

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#New_Hampshire

Hillary+27 over Christie in NY

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#New_York


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on July 17, 2013, 08:07:20 am
pbrower, if you update the Clinton vs. Christie map with VA, then include the MT, NY and NH polls as well:

Christie+5 over Hillary in MT

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Montana

Hillary+5 over Christie in NH

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#New_Hampshire

Hillary+27 over Christie in NY

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#New_York

I had a good reason for not showing the NH poll -- namely that both potential candidates had less than 40% of the likely vote. The undecided are obviously so large in number with a 37-32 split that I chose not to include it.  Otherwise, OK for Montana and New York.

Now, for Virginia --

Clinton 45-40 over Christie
Clinton 51-37 over Paul

Nothing on Clinton vs. Rubio or Clinton vs. Ryan from Quinnipiac this time, although there are some earlier polls (whether by PPP or Quinnipiac).

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=1923




Clinton vs. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Paul

()


Clinton vs. Rubio

()



Clinton vs. Ryan

()

White indicates a tie.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on July 19, 2013, 12:14:15 pm
Here are all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 22 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +3%
+8% R improvement

Florida: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +9%
+8% D improvement

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on July 22)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement

Kentucky: Hillary vs Rand Paul: Tie
+23% D improvement

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: Tie
+17% D improvement

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+3.5% R improvement

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement

Montana: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: Tie
+14% D improvement

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+0.8% R improvement

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9%
+9% R improvement

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +27%
+1% R improvement

North Carolina: Hillary vs Rubio: D +7%
+9% D improvement

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: Tie
+3% R improvement

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: D +12%
+7% D improvement

Texas: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.5%
+12% D improvement

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3%
+1% R improvement
(Updated with latest poll)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.5%
+0.5% R improvement

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated July 24)


Average all 22 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +2.1%
+5.6% D improvement



Looks like even in the best of cases, if the Grumpy Old Party could tailormake a specific candidate for each state, they still would do quite a lot worse nationally than they did against Obama in 2012. Possibly even worse than they did in the 2008 landslide.

Hillary seems to be gaining the most traction in Rand Paul's home state of Kentucky as well as in Arkansas, while struggling the most in Chris Christie's home state of New Jersey. Overall, Hillary is doing really well in red states - including Texas, the Appalachians and the Deep South - while struggling the most against governor Christie in typically blue states, including Colorado and the Great Lakes district.


That gives us this map right now:

()

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

20% shade = 0-1% lead
30% shade = 1-3% lead
40% shade = 3-6% lead
50% shade = 6-9% lead
60% shade = 9-12% lead
70% shade = 12-15% lead
80% shade = 15-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 188 EVs
Best/Tailormade Republican: 59 EVs
Toss-up: 37 EVs
No polling: 254 EVs (almost half)

Which means that Hillary has captured 66.2% of all EVs awarded thus far, against lackluster 20.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York of the solidly Democratic states has been polled so far, against no less than 9 solidly Republican states - the biggest of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Ohio being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()

Looking good all across the south and west except in Colorado. :)


Updated with latest PPP poll of Virginia. Iowa polls updated on July 22. Wyoming poll, national averages and state map updated on July 24. Also updated with latest Alaska poll on August 4. Georgia updated with new poll August 8. Updated with the frist poll from Arkansas.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Oak Hills on July 19, 2013, 02:45:27 pm
The early polling for this next election is so weird.
-We've got Hillary winning or tying most of the time in most red states that have been polled, even ones which haven't voted Democratic for decades, in some cases since Carter or even Johnson, and which Obama lost by 15-20 points.
-We see Hillary doing slightly worse than Obama in blue states, at least in the upper midwest.
-And then we have the bizarre phenomenon of Republicans being tied or in striking distance in Colorado and Ohio.

At this rate, half the country's going to be battleground states! It probably won't hold, but if that happens, it might be entertaining enough to make up for the watching-paint-dry-like Democratic primaries.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on July 23, 2013, 07:57:57 am
Iowa, Quinnipiac:

Clinton, Christie split 41-41

Clinton vs. Scott Walker (Republican Governor of neighboring Wisconsin) 46-39...probably a good proxy for Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, and Rick Santorum.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=1926




Clinton vs. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Paul

()


Clinton vs. Rubio

()



Clinton vs. Ryan

()

White indicates a tie.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Senator Cris on July 23, 2013, 08:42:45 am
hello pbrower!

I sent you a private message, please read it.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on July 23, 2013, 06:54:27 pm

hello pbrower!

I sent you a private message, please read it.

By all means! Probably a different thread, because too many maps in one post get confusing.

You'd need to do much archive work to do so -- and I don't consider Joe Biden a credible candidate for President. He has had plenty of chances to get the nomination and has never gotten them. The only way in which he becomes a credible candidate for President is if the Unthinkable happens to the President.


I understand that one of the reasons for nominating him for VP was that he was at the bottom in assets in possession among US Senators. He lacks the money and income sources for staging a campaign.
 


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on July 24, 2013, 07:32:01 pm
Here are the averages for the 9 national polls which have been held since December 2012:

Hillary vs Chris Christie (7 polls): Hillary +5%
Hillary vs Jeb Bush (4 polls): Hillary +9.5%
Hillary vs Rand Paul (6 polls): Hillary +9.8%
Hillary vs Marco Rubio (6 polls): Hillary +10.8%
Hillary vs Paul Ryan (5 polls): Hillary +11.6%
Hillary vs Rick Perry (1 poll): Hillary +16%


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Senator Cris on July 25, 2013, 03:46:54 am
New Wyoming polls from PPP.

Christie + 28 over Hillary (56-28)
Bush + 27 over Hillary (58-31)
Ryan + 27 over Hillary (59-32)
Paul + 26 over Hillary (58-32)
Rubio + 24 over Hillary (56-32)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WY_724.pdf


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on July 25, 2013, 03:53:37 am

Wyoming, PPP

Five matchups between Hillary Clinton and Republicans, and they are all roughly 32-57.   I am showing them at 60% saturation because such is closer to reality than the 52-46 split that might look somewhat close.



Clinton vs. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Paul

()


Clinton vs. Rubio

()



Clinton vs. Ryan

()

White indicates a tie.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Senator Cris on July 25, 2013, 04:13:55 am
Clinton 112
Christie 62
Tie 24
No polls 340


Clinton 111
Paul 3
Tie 8
No polls 416


Clinton 210
Rubio 21
Tie 0
No polls 307


Clinton 105
Ryan 12
Tie 8
No polls 413



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on July 25, 2013, 11:02:15 am
^^ Christie winning in Texas makes all the difference. :P


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on July 26, 2013, 12:24:47 pm
^^ Christie winning in Texas makes all the difference. :P

Texas has essentially a single-party system for statewide politics. The Democratic Party is basically crushed in statewide politics and is basically irrelevant. The giant cities are a different matter in local politics. 


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on July 26, 2013, 12:31:54 pm
^^ Christie winning in Texas makes all the difference. :P

Texas has essentially a single-party system for statewide politics. The Democratic Party is basically crushed in statewide politics and is basically irrelevant. The giant cities are a different matter in local politics. 

If you look at the polls, that doesn't seem to be the case for 2016 though. Chris Christie is the only one to beat Hillary in Texas at this moment, and even him just barely. Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if the polling firms only interviewed 18+ individuals. Which would mean that they would miss out on all the potential 15-18 year old future voters. Plus a few of those they interviewed will not be alive 3 years from now. If only 59% of Texas voters were white in 2012 with an extremely low Hispanic turnout, imagine how the Texas electorate will look like in 2016 with a record level of Hispanic turnout due to highly energized latinos in the state.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: TarHeelDem on July 27, 2013, 07:32:30 pm
Here are all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 21 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

North Carolina: Hillary vs Rubio: D +7%
+9% D improvement

Rubio has the best NC polling? Color me surprised.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on July 27, 2013, 10:31:23 pm
Here are all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 21 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

North Carolina: Hillary vs Rubio: D +7%
+9% D improvement

Rubio has the best NC polling? Color me surprised.

Yeah, although only two candidates have been tried out against Hillary in your state, Rubio and Rand Paul. I'm sure Chris Christie would do better in NC as well, don't you think?

Here's the source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#North_Carolina


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: TarHeelDem on July 27, 2013, 11:31:44 pm
Here are all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 21 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

North Carolina: Hillary vs Rubio: D +7%
+9% D improvement

Rubio has the best NC polling? Color me surprised.

Yeah, although only two candidates have been tried out against Hillary in your state, Rubio and Rand Paul. I'm sure Chris Christie would do better in NC as well, don't you think?

Here's the source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#North_Carolina

I think NC would be just as receptive to Christie as it was to Romney, if not more. Even so, I do think Hillary could beat Christie here (in other words, she would do better than Obama in 2012, perhaps somewhere around Obama in 2008). I'm very interested to see the polling when it's released.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on August 04, 2013, 08:36:41 am


Alaska, PPP. Hillary Clinton would beat Sarah Palin (not shown), but lose by margins less than 8% against everyone else.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AK_802.pdf


Clinton vs. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Paul

()


Clinton vs. Rubio

()



Clinton vs. Ryan

()

White indicates a tie.



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on August 08, 2013, 05:21:17 pm
-PPP's newest Georgia poll finds that Hillary Clinton would have a decent shot at winning the state if there was an election today. She leads Rand Paul, who's led our most recent national GOP polling, 48/43. She also has a 47/44 advantage on Paul Ryan, a 47/43 one on Newt Gingrich, and a 51/38 one over Sarah Palin. She ties Jeb Bush at 45, and the only Republican with an advantage over her is Chris Christie at 44/42. She could make Georgia a swing state in 2016.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/08/georgia-miscellany.html

.....

Georgia has been about R+7 in 2008 and R+11 in 2012; if it is at all close for the Republican then the Democrat is going to win 375 or so electoral votes and about 54% of the popular vote. A Democrat who wins Georgia is probably winning 56% of the popular vote and at least 400 electoral votes.

I notice that PPP isn't paying attention to Rubio anymore, but it is paying attention to Jeb Bush.

Clinton vs. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Paul

()


Clinton vs. Rubio

()



Clinton vs. Ryan

()

White indicates a tie.



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on August 09, 2013, 01:47:33 am
Taking all the state polls on Christie vs. Clinton so far (most recent poll from states with more than one poll), we have:

AK: Christie +8
CO: Christie +3
GA: Christie +2
IA: tie
MI: Clinton +6
MN: Clinton +6
MT: Christie +5
NH: Clinton +5
NJ: Clinton +11
NY: Clinton +27
OH: tie
TX: Christie +9
VA: Clinton +5
WI: Clinton +7
WY: Christie +28

The swing from the 2012 election would then be:

AK: D+6
CO: R+8
GA: D+6
IA: R+6
MI: R+3
MN: R+1
MT: D+9
NH: R+1
NJ: R+7
NY: R+1
OH: R+3
TX: D+7
VA: D+1
WI: no change
WY: D+13

()

So yeah, the Democratic states swing Republican, and the Republican states swing Democratic.  Thus creating a map with many more states that are close.  2012 actually had remarkably few states that were close, given that the election itself was fairly close.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on August 11, 2013, 08:30:30 am
Apparently the 'right' Democrat can win in Arkansas. Its incumbent Democratic Senator has a slight edge in a bid for re-election in 2014.  

It certainly was not Barack Obama:

Quote
There are also signs the atmosphere in Arkansas has grown less hospitable to Democrats as President Barack Obama’s popularity has nose dived in the state. Just 42 percent of respondents approve of Obama’s job performance, while 57 percent disapprove.

although that is better than the voting result of 2012 (61-37 Romney over Obama).

Quote
While Clinton crushes her Democratic competition, her advantage narrows significantly when she is placed head-to-head with potential Republican challengers. A Clinton vs. Paul matchup shows the former secretary of state leading 48 percent to 45 percent, within the poll’s margin-of-error. In a face-off between Clinton and Christie, Clinton leads 44 percent to 42.

In 2008 Hillary Clinton projected to defeat John McCain, so it may not be Arkansas that has changed politically since 2008. Barack Obama is a horrible match for Arkansas, and if he is no longer relevant to Arkansas in 2016 then Hillary Clinton could win.

Of course this pollster is new to me, so expect either confirmation or repudiation by someone else. Only two potential matchups are shown.

http://freebeacon.com/tom-cotton-in-dead-heat-with-mark-pryor-for-arkansas-senate/
Clinton vs. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Paul

()


Clinton vs. Rubio

()



Clinton vs. Ryan

()

White indicates a tie.


[/quote]


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on August 11, 2013, 08:48:38 am

Apparently the 'right' Democrat can win in Arkansas. Its incumbent Democratic Senator has a slight edge in a bid for re-election in 2014.  

It certainly was not Barack Obama:

Quote
There are also signs the atmosphere in Arkansas has grown less hospitable to Democrats as President Barack Obama’s popularity has nose dived in the state. Just 42 percent of respondents approve of Obama’s job performance, while 57 percent disapprove.

although that is better than the voting result of 2012 (61-37 Romney over Obama -- which is about what Reagan did to Mondale in 1984).

Quote
While Clinton crushes her Democratic competition, her advantage narrows significantly when she is placed head-to-head with potential Republican challengers. A Clinton vs. Paul matchup shows the former secretary of state leading 48 percent to 45 percent, within the poll’s margin-of-error. In a face-off between Clinton and Christie, Clinton leads 44 percent to 42.

In 2008 Hillary Clinton projected to defeat John McCain, so it may not be Arkansas that has changed politically since 2008. Barack Obama is a horrible match for Arkansas, and if he is no longer relevant to Arkansas in 2016 then Hillary Clinton could win.

Of course this pollster is new to me, so expect either confirmation or repudiation by someone else. Only two potential matchups are shown.

http://freebeacon.com/tom-cotton-in-dead-heat-with-mark-pryor-for-arkansas-senate/
Clinton vs. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Paul

()


Clinton vs. Rubio

()



Clinton vs. Ryan

()

White indicates a tie.




Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 21, 2013, 02:11:04 am

Apparently the 'right' Democrat can win in Arkansas. Its incumbent Democratic Senator has a slight edge in a bid for re-election in 2014.  

It certainly was not Barack Obama:

Quote
There are also signs the atmosphere in Arkansas has grown less hospitable to Democrats as President Barack Obama’s popularity has nose dived in the state. Just 42 percent of respondents approve of Obama’s job performance, while 57 percent disapprove.

although that is better than the voting result of 2012 (61-37 Romney over Obama -- which is about what Reagan did to Mondale in 1984).

Quote
While Clinton crushes her Democratic competition, her advantage narrows significantly when she is placed head-to-head with potential Republican challengers. A Clinton vs. Paul matchup shows the former secretary of state leading 48 percent to 45 percent, within the poll’s margin-of-error. In a face-off between Clinton and Christie, Clinton leads 44 percent to 42.

In 2008 Hillary Clinton projected to defeat John McCain, so it may not be Arkansas that has changed politically since 2008. Barack Obama is a horrible match for Arkansas, and if he is no longer relevant to Arkansas in 2016 then Hillary Clinton could win.

Of course this pollster is new to me, so expect either confirmation or repudiation by someone else. Only two potential matchups are shown.

http://freebeacon.com/tom-cotton-in-dead-heat-with-mark-pryor-for-arkansas-senate/
Clinton vs. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Paul

()


Clinton vs. Rubio

()



Clinton vs. Ryan

()

White indicates a tie.




This is just laughable, it really is. Clinton winning Texas? Louisiana? Georgia? Arkansas? Kentucky? If this is anywhere near accurate where in for a seismic shift in election politics.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on August 21, 2013, 03:19:00 pm

Apparently the 'right' Democrat can win in Arkansas. Its incumbent Democratic Senator has a slight edge in a bid for re-election in 2014.  

It certainly was not Barack Obama:

Quote
There are also signs the atmosphere in Arkansas has grown less hospitable to Democrats as President Barack Obama’s popularity has nose dived in the state. Just 42 percent of respondents approve of Obama’s job performance, while 57 percent disapprove.

although that is better than the voting result of 2012 (61-37 Romney over Obama -- which is about what Reagan did to Mondale in 1984).

Quote
While Clinton crushes her Democratic competition, her advantage narrows significantly when she is placed head-to-head with potential Republican challengers. A Clinton vs. Paul matchup shows the former secretary of state leading 48 percent to 45 percent, within the poll’s margin-of-error. In a face-off between Clinton and Christie, Clinton leads 44 percent to 42.

In 2008 Hillary Clinton projected to defeat John McCain, so it may not be Arkansas that has changed politically since 2008. Barack Obama is a horrible match for Arkansas, and if he is no longer relevant to Arkansas in 2016 then Hillary Clinton could win.

Of course this pollster is new to me, so expect either confirmation or repudiation by someone else. Only two potential matchups are shown.

(maps excised)





This is just laughable, it really is. Clinton winning Texas? Louisiana? Georgia? Arkansas? Kentucky? If this is anywhere near accurate where in for a seismic shift in election politics.

Seismic shift? It could be that Hillary Clinton is winning back the Clinton-but-not-Obama voters while keeping the Obama voters (which include some Obama-but-not-Clinton voters).

It could also be that the Republicans have some dreadful prospects seeming to lead have the lead for the Presidential nomination. If the Republicans have the right-wing version of George McGovern or Walter Mondale, then they can lose badly in 2016.

It could also be that many Americans remain uncomfortable with the concept of a black man as President of the United States.

It's also possible that people in the Mountain and Deep South will begin to recognize Hillary Clinton as a  d@mnyankee city-slicker who either never had (like Dukakis, Kerry, or Obama) any Southern roots or lost touch with them as did Al Gore.  But at that I am discussing things that have yet to happen.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on August 21, 2013, 03:28:14 pm
August 16-19, 2013
Survey of 721 Louisiana voters

Louisiana Survey Results (PPP)

Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?

44% Hillary Clinton

44% Jeb Bush

12% Not sure

Q5
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?

42% Hillary Clinton

41% Chris Christie

18% Not sure

Q6
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?

44% Hillary Clinton

45% Rand Paul

11% Not sure

Q7
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?

44% Hillary Clinton

46% Paul Ryan

11% Not sure
.........................................................
Clinton vs. Christie

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_LA_821.pdf

()

Clinton vs. Paul

()


Clinton vs. Rubio

()



Clinton vs. Ryan

()

White indicates a tie.





Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on August 21, 2013, 03:50:33 pm
Fellow readers of this thread:

I am tempted to start a new thread on this line. I am not saying when, but before I do (with the suggestion that this thread be locked) I see some faults in this presentation.

First, pollsters seem to no longer take Marco Rubio seriously. I am tempted to drop maps involving him in favor of maps for Jeb Bush, whom pollsters are beginning to take seriously. I am satisfied that Marco Rubio has beyond all imaginable question shown that he is not Presidential material until at least 2020 -- if ever.

Second, I see a huge difference between being up 43-42 and being up 49-40, and this map coloring scheme makes no such distinction. If it can't show the difference between a six-point lead and a one-point lead with someone 'leading' with less than 50% of the vote, the map shows leads that mean practically nothing.  I'd like to show anyone with 40-49% support but less than a 4% margin (margin of error) with 30% saturation. Between 40% and 49% support, inclusively? Still 40% saturation. Between 50% and 54% support, inclusively?  Still 50% saturation. 

Third, I see few states that now seem likely to show a 70-30 preference for anyone. A 55% preference could be shown with a 70% saturation to signify that a state is likely out of reach because anyone with at least 55% support in a binary choice is up at least 10%. I could show 60% or higher support with 90% saturation because such shows a margin of at least 20%. 


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on August 21, 2013, 04:18:45 pm
To show what the color scheme would look like:

White -- tie

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

()  

This map signifies nothing except to show a color scheme.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on August 22, 2013, 01:43:39 pm
Looking ahead to the 2016 presidential campaign, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton continues to be the apple of Virginia voters' eyes, leading New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie 46 - 37 percent, compared to 45 - 40 percent when Quinnipiac University asked that question in July.

Christie continues to lead Vice President Joseph Biden, 44 - 37 percent today compared to 46 - 38 percent last month.

Clinton crushes Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas 53 - 34 percent. Biden tops Cruz 47 - 37 percent.


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=1940

Clinton vs. Christie



()

Clinton vs. Paul

()


Clinton vs. Rubio

()



Clinton vs. Ryan

()

White indicates a tie.






Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on August 23, 2013, 11:36:32 am
Ohio, PPP:

Clinton 50%
Bush 36%

Clinton 45%
Christie 36%

Clinton 53%
Kasich 35%

Clinton 51%
Paul 36%

Clinton 52%
Ryan 36%


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/08/ohioans-skeptical-about-kasich-2016-and-more.html#more

Clinton vs. Christie



()

Clinton vs. Paul

()


Clinton vs. Rubio

()



Clinton vs. Ryan

()

White indicates a tie.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on August 23, 2013, 12:11:19 pm
Blank map.

()

Purpose:

Jeb Bush vs. Hillary Clinton

Starting with Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Virginia, and Wyoming:

()

I will let someone else make the decision to merge this map with the others, perhaps replacing the maps involving Rubio with this one if such seems a good idea. After all, nobody seems to be paying any chances of Marco Rubio to be the next President anymore.



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on August 23, 2013, 02:16:33 pm
With the color scheme suggested a few posts above:

White -- tie

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Jeb Bush vs. Hillary Clinton

Starting with Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Virginia, and Wyoming:

()



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on August 23, 2013, 02:35:19 pm
With the color scheme suggested a few posts above:

White -- tie

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Jeb Bush vs. Hillary Clinton

Starting with Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Virginia, and Wyoming:

()

Contrast the old pattern:

()  


I don't have enough data points to show a 46-43 split here, but as you can see I have a sharp contrast between someone up with 50% or more and someone up with under 50%. The justification for a 60% saturation is that the legal difference between winning 50% +1 and slightly less is significant in some places -- and because someone behind 52-47 must pull votes away from the one up 52-47 while the one down 47-45 can still win by picking up undecided votes. 




Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on August 23, 2013, 02:52:16 pm
Here is Christie for a contrast between the two patterns. The old way:

Clinton vs. Christie



()

White indicates a tie.

And my proposal:

White -- tie

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Clinton vs. Christie

()

Polls go back at least to March with Clinton vs. Christie, but you can see more contrast in color (even if I show no state giving 60% to anyone). We can easily see that the weak leads of Clinton in Arkansas and Louisiana or of Christie in Colorado (which I have cause to doubt) and Georgia aren't worth much. Clinton leads in the northeastern quadrant of the US  (except in New York and New Jersey) are not as imposing, but cutting into those will be difficult.



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on August 24, 2013, 07:42:13 am
Update on the latest statewide polls of Christie vs. Clinton:

AK: Christie +8
AR: Clinton +2
CO: Christie +1
GA: Christie +2
IA: tie
LA: Clinton +1
MI: Clinton +6
MN: Clinton +6
MT: Christie +5
NH: Clinton +5
NJ: Clinton +11
NY: Clinton +27
OH: Clinton +9
PA: Clinton +5
TX: Christie +9
VA: Clinton +9
WI: Clinton +7
WY: Christie +28

The swing from the 2012 election would then be:

AK: D+6
AR: D+26
CO: R+6
GA: D+6
IA: R+6
LA: D+21
MI: R+3
MN: R+1
MT: D+9
NH: R+1
NJ: R+7
NY: R+1
OH: D+6
PA: no change
TX: D+7
VA: D+5
WI: no change
WY: D+13

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on August 26, 2013, 11:10:42 am
Should we abandon all depictions of how Rubio would do in favor of Jeb Bush?


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on August 26, 2013, 07:30:56 pm
Here's an update with the latest state polls of August and September (up until the 20th).

Here are all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 22 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+7% R improvement

Florida: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +9%
+8% D improvement

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on July 22)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement

Kentucky: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +2.5%
+25% D improvement
(updated with second poll from 2012, corrected previous mistake)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+3.5% R improvement

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement

Montana: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Corrected previous error)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.4%
+1.2% R improvement
(Updated with September poll)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9%
+9% R improvement

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +27%
+1% R improvement

North Carolina: Hillary vs Rubio: D +7%
+9% D improvement

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+1.5% R improvement
(Updated with newest poll)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: D +12%
+7% D improvement

Texas: Hillary vs Ted Cruz: R +5%
+11% D improvement

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3%
+1% R improvement
(Updated with latest August poll + 3 new polls in September)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated with latest September poll)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated July 24)


Average all 22 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +1.8%
+5.2% D improvement



That gives us this map right now:

()

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

20% shade = 0-1% lead
30% shade = 1-3% lead
40% shade = 3-6% lead
50% shade = 6-9% lead
60% shade = 9-12% lead
70% shade = 12-15% lead
80% shade = 15-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 214 EVs
Best/Tailormade Republican: 75 EVs

Toss-up: None
No polling: 249 EVs (almost half)

Which means that Hillary has captured an amazing 74% of all EVs awarded thus far, against disappointing 26% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York of the solidly Democratic states has been polled so far (2 if including New Jersey), against no less than 9 solidly Republican states - the biggest of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Not either to forget such states as D.C., Vermont and Hawaii. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican (in more than 50% of the cases, Christie) candidate:

1. Kentucky: D +25%
2. Arkansas: D +22%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Texas: D +11%
7. New Jersey: R +9%
8. North Carolina: D +9%
9. Florida: D +8%
10. Colorado: R +7%
11. Pennsylvania: D +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Montana: D +6%

All of these changes (in the 14 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demograhically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, Pennsylvania (Texas & North Carolina)), makes me extremely curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana, Illinois, West Virginia and even South Carolina will play out in their first poll(s). I'm sure that all of these 6 states - in particular the first five - will move considerably towards Hillary as well.

The only non-candidate state (excluding New Jersey & Wisconsin) which have moved considerably towards Republican candidate(s) so far, has been Colorado. It will be interesting to see why this sole and very important swing state is bucking the trend which is occurring in almost the entire rest of the United States.


Updated with latest PPP poll of Virginia in August as well as the 3 Virginia polls from September. Also updated with polls of New Hampshire and Wisconsin in September. Iowa polls updated on July 22. Wyoming poll, national averages and state map updated on July 24. Also updated with latest Alaska poll on August 4. Georgia updated with new poll August 8. Updated with the first poll from Arkansas. Updated with latest August polls as well. And corrected three previous errors, including Kentucky, where Hillary is currently leading in the first two polls published, not Rand Paul as my numbers have claimed thus far.

Last updated on September 20.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on August 28, 2013, 09:30:45 am
Hillary Clinton seems to offer the prospect of winning in part on nostalgia for Bill Clinton while keeping Obama support intact. We have yet to see patters for New England (35 EV) and California (55 EV), and once PPP releases binary matchups between Hillary Clinton and prospective R pols, we will have some questions answered. Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri (which together contain 32 electoral votes)  will be interesting if and when polled.

A Hillary Clinton win now looks like a huge Democratic win with a huge reduction in regional polarization of the electorate.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on August 28, 2013, 06:02:03 pm
Merging in Jeb Bush; removing Marco Rubio

I anticipate binary matchups from PPP in Maine.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

()


Clinton vs. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Paul

()

Clinton vs. Ryan

()

White indicates a tie.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: GAworth on August 28, 2013, 09:41:45 pm
The polls might say GA will go to Hillary but I don't see that happening, it will be under 55% for the Republican but I think they will win it. 2020 I could believe it, but not 2016.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: President Johnson on August 29, 2013, 06:26:24 am
The polls might say GA will go to Hillary but I don't see that happening, it will be under 55% for the Republican but I think they will win it. 2020 I could believe it, but not 2016.

Likely it becomes a tossup, as Obama lost it by "only" 7 percent. It might be very narrow democratic victory that year. But much depends on the candidates and the political cimate in 2016.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Bevinevitable on September 12, 2013, 03:35:23 pm
The fact that Hillary only needs the West coast in most of these maps to get over 270 is telling.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on September 12, 2013, 03:36:45 pm
Purple poll, Virginia.

Clinton 42, Christie 40
Clinton 48, Paul 41

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/September2013VAPoll_V5.pdf?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PurplePoll+VA+September&utm_content=PurplePoll+VA+September+CID_9ce890956460af89c13b0c312ffbee86&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=Click%20here%20to%20see%20the%20full%20poll%20including%20the%20Purple%20analysis%20and%20crosstabs



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

()


Clinton vs. Christie

()

Clinton vs. Paul

()

Clinton vs. Ryan

()

White indicates a tie.



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on September 12, 2013, 04:01:18 pm
The fact that Hillary only needs the West coast in most of these maps to get over 270 is telling.

That is how things looked for Democrats in 2008 on Election night. In 2012 President Obama was ahead in four states that could decide the election and was close in another such state (North Carolina) as the networks called the West Coast states. The count made Ohio unwinnable for Romney just after 11PM eastern time.

 


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on September 12, 2013, 05:40:32 pm
Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul (new style)

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


()

Old way:

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

()

The new way, I believe, shows the difference between an overwhelming lead (let us say between  57-42), a strong one (52-47), a significant one short of 50% (49-42),  an insignificant one (48-45 or 43-42).

The new one involving a narrow Clinton lead over Christie in  Virginia:

 ()   


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on September 14, 2013, 10:58:55 am
Margin-sensitive polling maps


The new way, I believe, shows the difference between an overwhelming lead (let us say between  57-42), a strong one (52-47), a significant one short of 50% (49-42),  an insignificant one (48-45 or 43-42).



blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on September 15, 2013, 10:52:29 am
I am going with the margin-sensitive polling map, and I may do no maintenance on the 'classic' maps.  As I say, there's a huge difference between being up 57-41 and being up 51-48 that does not show with the 50% red saturation that fails to distinguish 50% and 59%.  At or above 50%, the nominee cannot win by picking up the undecided vote alone; the lagger must pick up support from those then likely to vote for the leader. Even at 49% support the leader can lose by losing all of the undecided  to the lagger even if such seems unlikely. (In my experience, the undecided tend to drift ineffectively and inadequately toward the eventual loser except during late-season collapses).

Having a lead of 3% and less than 50% is meaningless in predicting how that state is going, although patterns may show. For example, if Hillary Clinton is down by 6% to Chris Christie in Indiana (I chose Indiana as an example because I expect no Indiana polls for a very long time), then Christie is in trouble. After all, Democrats usually win the Presidency when Indiana is down 10% or less because Indiana is usually about R+12. Besides, if the Democratic nominee is down by that little in Indiana, he is probably ahead in a state like Florida, Ohio, or Virginia that is more D than Indiana that the Republicans cannot afford to lose.

Example: Carter lost the state by 7.6% in 1976 and barely got elected (2% in the popular vote). He lost it by 18.3% in 1980 and lost nationwide in the biggest blowout win for a challenger since FDR defeated Hoover in 1932.         


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on September 18, 2013, 11:43:30 am
Margin-sensitive polling maps

PPP, New Hampshire -- only four electoral votes, but it could have won the 2000 election for Al Gore by itself.

When it comes to the general election Hillary Clinton leads all the Republicans in head to heads. There's two pretty clear tiers of competitiveness: Chris Christie and everyone else. Christie comes within 4 points of Clinton, trailing 43/39. Everyone else we tested trails her by somewhere in the 8-12 point range: 50/42 against Ayotte, 49/40 against Bush, 50/41 against Ryan, 51/41 against Paul, and 50/38 against Cruz. - See more at: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/09/clinton-leads-dems-paul-and-christie-tops-among-republicans-in-nh.html#more


This way, I believe, shows the difference between an overwhelming lead (let us say between  57-42), a strong one (52-47), a significant one short of 50% (49-42),  an insignificant one (48-45 or 43-42).



blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()

As you can see (and the map shows it) Christie would have a significant chance to win New Hampshire, Jeb Bush practically none... and neither Paul nor Ryan has a chance in New Hampshire.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on September 19, 2013, 03:47:08 pm
PPP, Wisconsin

Quote
Ryan also fares better than Walker when it comes to matching up with Hillary Clinton. Ryan ties her at 46, while Walker trails by a 49/44 spread. In both cases the Republicans are polling 8 points better than they did when we last polled Wisconsin in February. At that time Clinton led Ryan 51/43 and Walker 54/41.

Clinton leads the rest of the Republicans we tested her against by varying margins- it's 3 points over Chris Christie at 43/40, 4 points over Jeb Bush at 46/42, 5 points over Rand Paul at 47/42, and 11 points over Ted Cruz at 48/37.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/09/ryan-fares-stronger-than-walker-for-2016-in-wisconsin.html#more

Comment: Wisconsin may be drifting right. Ryan, without a Favorite Son advantage would lose Wisconsin... but he would lose enough genuine swing states to make Wisconsin irrelevant.  

But not a sampling based upon the 2012 vote for President:


Quote
Q16 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

49% Barack Obama

45% Mitt Romney

6% Someone else/Don't remember

The current poll is of likely voters in midterm elections, obviously a more pressing concern in Wisconsin, as a Governorship and an open Senate seat will then be decided. In 2016 you can probably add four points to these polls for Clinton in the general election and take one away from each Republican as a potential nominee. 

.....

This way, I believe, shows the difference between an overwhelming lead (let us say  57-42), a strong one (52-47), a significant one short of 50% (49-42),  an insignificant one (48-45 or 43-42).


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on September 19, 2013, 05:55:47 pm
I've updated my averages and maps (both actual and trendline) for the 22 polled states now after the 5 polls in Virginia, Wisconsin and New Hampshire now in September. See post #109 please for the updated stats. :)


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on September 25, 2013, 05:25:37 pm
Do you remember when West Virginia went for Democratic nominees for President except during Republican landslides like 1972 and 1984? Me too. It's not going to bounce back enough for Hillary Clinton.  

Quote
PPP, West Virginia

Q11 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?

38% Hillary Clinton

52% Jeb Bush

10% not sure


Q12 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?

38% Hillary Clinton

47% Chris Christie

15% Not sure

Q13 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?

41% Hillary Clinton

44% Ted Cruz

16% Not sure

Q14 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?

39% Hillary Clinton

49% Rand Paul

12% Not sure

Q15 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?

38% Hillary Clinton

50% Paul Ryan

12% Not Sure

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_WV_925.pdf

I'm not showing Ted Cruz.


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()




Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on September 27, 2013, 07:05:50 pm
New Jersey Survey of 1000 Likely Voters
Conducted September 19, 2013 By Pulse Opinion Research

In thinking about the 2016 presidential election, suppose you had a choice between Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Hillary Clinton. If the election were held today would you vote for Republican Chris Christie or Democrat Hillary Clinton?

43% Chris Christie
48% Hillary Clinton
5% Some other candidate
4% Not sure

http://chpp.kean.edu/poll/new-jersey-survey-1000-likely-voters-0

Nothing shown for binary matchups.


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()





Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 27, 2013, 08:12:16 pm
Update on the latest statewide polls of Christie vs. Clinton:

AK: Christie +8
AR: Clinton +2
CO: Christie +1
GA: Christie +2
IA: tie
LA: Clinton +1
MI: Clinton +6
MN: Clinton +6
MT: Christie +5
NH: Clinton +4
NJ: Clinton +5
NY: Clinton +27
OH: Clinton +9
PA: Clinton +5
TX: Christie +9
VA: Clinton +2
WV: Christie +9
WI: Clinton +3
WY: Christie +28

The swing from the 2012 election would then be:

AK: D+6
AR: D+26
CO: R+6
GA: D+6
IA: R+6
LA: D+21
MI: R+3
MN: R+1
MT: D+9
NH: R+2
NJ: R+13
NY: R+1
OH: D+6
PA: no change
TX: D+7
VA: R+2
WV: D+18
WI: R+4
WY: D+13

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on September 30, 2013, 06:59:44 pm
With two more polls out the last few days - including the very first poll this season in West Virginia (the other one being in New Jersey) - it's time to update my statistics once more, now presenting the 23rd state, the ultra Republican state as of late, and the most climate sceptic of all 50 states, West Virginia.


So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 23 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+7% R improvement
Current Republican gain

Florida: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +9%
+8% D improvement

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on July 22)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement

Kentucky: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +2.5%
+25% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(updated with second poll from 2012, corrected previous mistake)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+3.5% R improvement

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement

Montana: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Corrected previous error)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.4%
+1.2% R improvement
(Updated with September poll)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+10% R improvement
(Updated October 1)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +27%
+1% R improvement

North Carolina: Hillary vs Rubio: D +7%
+9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+1.5% R improvement
(Updated with newest poll)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: D +12%
+7% D improvement

Texas: Hillary vs Ted Cruz: R +5%
+11% D improvement

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3%
+1% R improvement
(Updated with latest August poll + 3 new polls in September)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated with latest September poll)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated July 24)


Average all 23 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +1.1%
+5.5% D improvement
(from Obama 2012)


That gives us this map right now:

()

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

20% shade = 0-1% lead
30% shade = 1-3% lead
40% shade = 3-6% lead
50% shade = 6-9% lead
60% shade = 9-12% lead
70% shade = 12-15% lead
80% shade = 15-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 214 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 80 EVs (for a total of 9 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 244 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 27 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured an amazing 73% of all EVs awarded thus far, against disappointing 27% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York of the solidly Democratic states has been polled so far (2 if including New Jersey), against no less than 10 solidly Republican states - the biggest of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont and Hawaii. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican (in more than 50% of the cases, Christie) candidate:

1. Kentucky: D +25%
2. Arkansas: D +22%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. New Jersey: R +9%
9. North Carolina: D +9%
10. Florida: D +8%
11. Colorado: R +7%
12. Pennsylvania: D +7%
13. Alaska: D +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Montana: D +6%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demograhically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, Pennsylvania (Texas & North Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana, Illinois and even South Carolina will play out in their first poll(s). I'm pretty sure that all of these 5 states - in particular the first four - will move considerably towards Hillary as well.

The only non-candidate state (excluding New Jersey & Wisconsin) which have moved considerably towards Republican candidate(s) so far, has been Colorado. It will be interesting to see why this sole and very important swing state is bucking the trend which is occurring in almost the entire rest of the United States.


Last updated on October 1.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Bevinevitable on September 30, 2013, 09:37:42 pm
Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement

LMFAO. If I was a Republican I'd be praying every day Hillary doesn't run.

As for Colorado, the state is very atypical for several reasons. In most states there's backlash against Tea Party governors overreaching along with their legislators such as in NC, OH, etc. In Colorado it's the opposite at the moment, with the Democrats facing a backlash over their gun laws. Secondly, in most swing states, Democrats have a registration advantage over Republicans, but since independents skew Republican the states are competitive anyway. In Colorado it's the opposite, Republicans have a registration advantage but independents skew Democrat. I can see why Obama would have more appeal to libertarian-ish left-leaning independents in Colorado than Hillary would.

What really doesn't make any sense to me is why Hillary performs so well in Arkansas and Kentucky but not in West Virginia. AR/KY have pretty much been taken over by the GOP on all levels, but WV still has a dominant Democratic Party. You'd think she would be doing better there than in Kentucky especially.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on October 16, 2013, 01:59:10 pm

That gives us this map right now:

()

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

20% shade = 0-1% lead
30% shade = 1-3% lead
40% shade = 3-6% lead
50% shade = 6-9% lead
60% shade = 9-12% lead
70% shade = 12-15% lead
80% shade = 15-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18% lead


Quote
In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 214 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 80 EVs (for a total of 9 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 244 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 27 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured an amazing 73% of all EVs awarded thus far, against disappointing 27% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York of the solidly Democratic states has been polled so far (2 if including New Jersey), against no less than 10 solidly Republican states - the biggest of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont and Hawaii. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


Let's make it even simpler. For states for which no polls have been taken yet nobody has any reasonable cause to believe would go other than as they usually do, color them green if they are practically certain to go for any Republican and orange if they are nearly-certain D wins.  I am going to be on the cautious side with Nevada and New Mexico because if Colorado is leaning R for now then those two states are iffy. But if Georgia is iffy, then so are Arizona,  Indiana, and Missouri.  Basically Hillary Clinton is not going to win Alabama, Oklahoma, or Utah and she is not going to lose California, Maryland, or Massachusetts.  I am going to use  pale shades of green and orange because dark orange shades are ugly.

()

I can't believe that either Arkansas or Kentucky will go for Hillary Clinton -- but if they do we are going to see the dullest Presidential election since the 1980s. As it is I see Hillary with 343 electoral votes with an upside of up to 44 more  based on Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, and  New Mexico.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on October 29, 2013, 05:58:35 pm
Republicans surely wish that Wisconsin has become a showcase for the repudiation of liberalism in a state that hasn't voted for a Republican nominee for President since the Reagan blowouts through the glorious achievements of Favorite Sons Governor Scott Walker and Paul Ryan, and they would be ready to vote for just about any Republicans after the Presidential disaster that is Barack Obama.  

Clinton 51, Ryan 43
Clinton 53, Walker 41
Clinton 50, Christie 40
Clinton 55, Cruz 33

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2013/10/29/marquette-law-school-poll-shows-walker-in-tight-race-with-burke-for-wisconsin-governor-in-2014/

Fantasy disabused. Nothing on Jeb Bush or Rand Paul.

At this point, Scott Walker looks as if he would give the worst Favorite Son performance in his own state since at least George McGovern in 1972. Ted Cruz looks as if he would be setting up an electoral disaster analogous to Barry Goldwater in 1964.  


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()






Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 01, 2013, 07:51:35 pm
Update on the latest statewide polls of Christie vs. Clinton:

AK: Christie +8
AR: Clinton +2
CO: Christie +1
GA: Christie +2
IA: tie
LA: Clinton +1
MI: Clinton +6
MN: Clinton +6
MT: Christie +5
NH: Clinton +4
NJ: Clinton +5
NY: Clinton +27
OH: Clinton +9
PA: Clinton +5
SC: Christie +5
TX: Christie +9
VA: Clinton +2
WV: Christie +9
WI: Clinton +10
WY: Christie +28

The swing from the 2012 election would then be:

AK: D+6
AR: D+26
CO: R+6
GA: D+6
IA: R+6
LA: D+21
MI: R+3
MN: R+1
MT: D+9
NH: R+2
NJ: R+13
NY: R+1
OH: D+6
PA: no change
SC: D+5
TX: D+7
VA: R+2
WV: D+18
WI: D+3
WY: D+13

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on November 02, 2013, 08:56:56 am
Updated on November 8 to add the latest Texas poll to the list. It didn't change much, however, it substituted Ted Cruz with Jeb Bush. The Republican lead is still 5% ahead of Hillary though. Chris Christie, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz are all 4% ahead of Hillary in Texas now. Marco Rubio is 1% behind her, while Rick Perry is 4.7% behind her - quite chanceless in other words.

Update on November 2 to include the very first poll from South Carolina. Harper polling polled 3 potential Republican candidates against Hillary - Cruz, Christie and Rubio. Marco Rubio did best of the three - beating Hillary by a margin of 7 %.


So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 24 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+7% R improvement
Current Republican gain

Florida: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +9%
+8% D improvement

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+2% R improvement

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement

Kentucky: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +2.5%
+25% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+3.5% R improvement

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement

Montana: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +8%
+6% D improvement

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.4%
+1.2% R improvement
(Updated with September poll)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +7.8%
+10% R improvement
(Updated November 8 )

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +27%
+1% R improvement

North Carolina: Hillary vs Rubio: D +7%
+9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+1.5% R improvement

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: D +12%
+7% D improvement

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3%
+1% R improvement

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated with latest October poll, though Bush was not among those polled)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement


Average all 24 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.8%
+6% D improvement
(from Obama 2012)


That gives us this map right now:

()

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

20% shade = 0-1% lead
30% shade = 1-3% lead
40% shade = 3-6% lead
50% shade = 6-9% lead
60% shade = 9-12% lead
70% shade = 12-15% lead
80% shade = 15-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 214 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 89 EVs (for a total of 10 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 235 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 26 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured an amazing 70.6% of all EVs awarded thus far, against disappointing 29.4% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York of the solidly Democratic states has been polled so far (2 if including New Jersey), against no less than 11 solidly Republican states - the biggest of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont and Hawaii. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican (in about 50% of the cases, Christie) candidate:

1. Kentucky: D +25%
2. Arkansas: D +22%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. New Jersey: R +10%
9. North Carolina: D +9%
10. Florida: D +8%
11. Colorado: R +7%
12. Pennsylvania: D +7%
13. Alaska: D +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Montana: D +6%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio (Texas, North Carolina & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The only non-candidate state (excluding New Jersey & Wisconsin) which have moved considerably towards Republican candidate(s) so far, has been Colorado. It will be interesting to see why this sole and very important swing state is bucking the trend which is occurring in almost the entire rest of the United States.


Last updated on November 8.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 02, 2013, 05:54:04 pm

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on July 22)

Isn't this a 41/41 tie, not a 4 point Clinton lead?

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=1926


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on November 02, 2013, 06:12:44 pm

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on July 22)

Isn't this a 41/41 tie, not a 4 point Clinton lead?

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=1926


Mine is based on an average of ALL possible polls, not just on the last most random poll.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on November 06, 2013, 08:07:42 am
No map, as this is a national survey. 

National Survey Results
Quote

Q1
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
48%
Hillary Clinton
..................................................
39%
Jeb Bush
.........................................................
13%
Not sure
..........................................................
Q2
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
44%
Hillary Clinton
..................................................
39%
Chris Christie
..................................................
16%
Not sure
..........................................................
Q3
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
50%
Hillary Clinton
..................................................
33%
Ted Cruz
.........................................................
16%
Not sure
..........................................................
Q4
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
49%
Hillary Clinton
..................................................
37%
Rand Paul
.......................................................
14%
Not sure
..........................................................
Q5
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
42%
Joe Biden
........................................................
43%
Jeb Bush
.........................................................
15%
Not sure
..........................................................
Q6
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
38%
Joe Biden
........................................................
45%
Chris Christie
..................................................
17%
Not sure
..........................................................
Q7
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Ted Cruz,
who would you vote for?
46%
Joe Biden
........................................................
36%
Ted Cruz
.........................................................
18%
Not sure
..........................................................
Q8
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
45%
Joe Biden
........................................................
38%
Rand Paul
.......................................................
16%
Not sure
..........................................................
Q9
In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
47%
Barack Obama
................................................
46%
Mitt Romney
....................................................
7%
Someone else/Don't remember
......................

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_US_110513.pdf


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on November 06, 2013, 08:22:07 am
Exit poll, NJ gubernatorial election.
 
Quote
If today was a race between Christie and Clinton, exit polls show Christie would not carry his home state. The former secretary of state, senator, and first lady beats Christie, 50 percent to 43 percent.

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/05/21324042-exit-polls-clinton-beats-christie-in-nj-in-potential-2016-matchup


Nothing on anyone else. I would guess that anyone else who has no connection to New Jersey loses New Jersey to Hillary Clinton by a margin in the high teens or even twenties.

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on November 07, 2013, 11:39:06 am
PPP will be polling Maine and North Carolina this week. It may (I hope!) still offer some binary matchups in Minnesota and Texas to fill some gaps in the map from extant polls.

Arizona, Florida, Indiana (don't hold your breath!), and Missouri could be interesting.  


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on November 07, 2013, 01:47:58 pm
Texas, PPP

Quote
Hypothetical Presidential match ups with Hillary Clinton for 2016 are a little bit closer than you might expect for Texas- and the Republicans who do better are the ones from out of state. Jeb Bush polls the strongest against Clinton, leading her 49/42. Chris Christie does next best, leading 44/39, followed by Rand Paul with a 48/44 advantage. Cruz leads Clinton only 48/45, and Rick Perry actually trails her 47/45. The poll numbers are overall brutal for Perry with only 15% of voters in the state thinking he should run for President in 2016 to 73% who think he should sit it out. Even among Republicans only 22% think he should run while 60% say no.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/mixed-news-for-cruz-in-texas-polling-numbers.html#more


I get to fill two big gaps. The Republican nominee will need to win Texas by about 15% to have a strong chance of winning nationwide.  

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on November 13, 2013, 10:04:48 am
Approvals for President Obama have slipped badly in Maine, so Republicans ought to be able to stall the Hillary Clinton juggernaut.

Well, not in Maine for now. (PPP)


H Clinton 55 J Bush 32
H Clinton 47 Christie 39
H Clinton  57 T Cruz 30
H Clinton 57 R Paul 32

Nothing on Ryan.

North Carolina:

-Looking ahead to the 2016 Presidential race in North Carolina, Chris Christie is the only Republican who leads Hillary Clinton in the state at this early stage. He's up 46-43. Clinton leads Jeb Bush narrowly in a hypothetical contest (47/43) and then has wider leads over Rand Paul of 9 points (50/41) and Ted Cruz of 12 points (51/39). - See more at: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/north-carolina-miscellany.html#more

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on November 13, 2013, 04:32:56 pm
A new update on November 20 after Mississippi has been polled for the very first time, Colorado for the 4th time and New York for a second time.

Here's an update on November 13 to add the very first Maine poll and the second only North Carolina poll to the list. Hillary leads everyone with huge margins in Maine (even Christie), while North Carolina will be a dog fight with Christie or Bush on the GOP side. With this new poll, North Carolina changed from Democratic gain and back to Republican hold.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +4%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

Florida: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +9%
+8% D improvement

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+2% R improvement

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement

Kentucky: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +2.5%
+25% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+3.5% R improvement

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement

Montana: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +8%
+6% D improvement

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.4%
+1.2% R improvement
(Updated with September poll)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +7.2%
+10.6% R improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +21.5%
+6.5% R improvement
(Updated on November 19)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +3%
+1% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+1.5% R improvement

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: D +12%
+7% D improvement

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3%
+1% R improvement

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated with latest October poll, though Bush was not among those polled)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.06%
+4.1% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting an 7.9% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

20% shade = 0-1% lead
30% shade = 1-3% lead
40% shade = 3-6% lead
50% shade = 6-9% lead
60% shade = 9-12% lead
70% shade = 12-15% lead
80% shade = 15-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 203 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 110 EVs (for a total of 12 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured an impressive 64.9% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.1% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York & Maine of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far (3 if including New Jersey), against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 14 out of 25 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +25%
2. Arkansas: D +22%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. New Jersey: R +10.6%
9. Colorado: R +9%
10. Florida: D +8%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Pennsylvania: D +7%
13. Alaska: D +7%
14. New York: R +6.5%
15. Georgia: D +6%
16. Montana: D +6%

All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The only non-candidate states (excluding New Jersey & Wisconsin) which have moved considerably towards Republican candidate(s) so far, have been Colorado, Maine & New York. It will be interesting to see why this sole and very important swing state is bucking the trend which is occurring in almost the entire rest of the United States.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +21.5%
Pennsylvania: D +12%
Florida: D +9%
Maine: D +8%
New Jersey: D +7.2% (including Exit Poll from Governor's race)
Michigan: D +6%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +4.5%
New Hampshire: D +4.4%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Iowa: D +4%
Virginia: D +3%
Kentucky: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +3%
Colorado: R +4%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Montana: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


All lists and numbers above are based on no less than 66 individual polls from different pollsters. The vast majority of them conducted in 2013.

Last updated on November 20.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on November 17, 2013, 10:34:42 pm

That gives us this map right now:

()

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet (orange -- D sure things -- 139 electoral votes)


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on November 18, 2013, 07:03:30 am
Siena, New York

Christie trails Hillary Clinton 56 - 40 percent and he leads Cuomo 47 - 42 percent

Only one data point, and only a subtle change, but it is in a huge state electorally. So much for Andrew Cuomo as a possible President. More significantly this is by a pollster that we haven't seen for some time.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/SNY%20November%202013%20Poll%20Release%20--%20FINAL.pdf

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 18, 2013, 08:14:02 am
Siena, New York

Christie trails Hillary Clinton 56 - 40 percent and he leads Cuomo 47 - 42 percent

Only one data point, and only a subtle change, but it is in a huge state electorally. So much for Andrew Cuomo as a possible President. More significantly this is by a pollster that we haven't seen for some time.

I think this only shows that NYers want Cuomo to stick as their Governor and not run for President, when they already have Hillary for that.

If Cuomo were the DEM nominee, he would do no worse than Obama though in NY ...

Also: You need to re-color NJ, because the Exit Poll showed Clinton leading Christie there by only 48-44.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on November 18, 2013, 06:28:42 pm
Siena, New York

Christie trails Hillary Clinton 56 - 40 percent and he leads Cuomo 47 - 42 percent

Only one data point, and only a subtle change, but it is in a huge state electorally. So much for Andrew Cuomo as a possible President. More significantly this is by a pollster that we haven't seen for some time.

I think this only shows that NYers want Cuomo to stick as their Governor and not run for President, when they already have Hillary for that.

If Cuomo were the DEM nominee, he would do no worse than Obama though in NY ...

Also: You need to re-color NJ, because the Exit Poll showed Clinton leading Christie there by only 48-44.

Done on the most recent map.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on November 19, 2013, 04:08:42 pm
If you want more new states to be polled by PPP next weekend, you guys need to vote for either Illinois, Maryland, New Mexico or Connecticut at the top right side of this page:

http://publicpolicypolling.com/

Thanks. :)

Disappointed that Arizona isn't one of the available offers though...


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on November 20, 2013, 10:27:52 am
Quinnipiac, Colorado:

Quote
In an early look at the 2016 race for the White House, New Jersey Republican Gov. Christopher Christie tops former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton 46 - 38 percent in Colorado, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to results of an August 23 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University, showing Gov. Christie with 43 percent and Secretary Clinton at 42 percent, a tie.

In today's survey, Clinton runs neck and with other possible Republican candidates;

    Clinton at 44 percent to 47 percent for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
    Clinton and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas tied at 44 - 44 percent;
    Clinton at 43 percent to 45 percent for U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=1978

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()




Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on November 20, 2013, 03:43:35 pm
Could Hillary Clinton be the first Democratic nominee for President to win Mississippi since Jimmy Carter did in 1976?

Quote
Q3 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 42%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 40%
Chris Christie .................................................. 49%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q5 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

Q6 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 44%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/mississippi-cruz-has-a-slim-lead-in-the-primary-and-general.html

Highly unlikely.

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()





Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: JerryArkansas on November 20, 2013, 04:53:11 pm
I think you should add Ted Cruz and get rid of Ryan.  Hardly anyone polling on him anymore.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on November 20, 2013, 05:02:50 pm

Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.06%
+4.1% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting an 7.9% victory for Hillary]

Even with Mississippi Christie numbers released, still looking good for Hillary. :P


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on November 21, 2013, 01:14:57 am
I think you should add Ted Cruz and get rid of Ryan.  Hardly anyone polling on him anymore.

I am in no rush to dump Ryan. I have suggested that PPP poll Illinois to see how both high-profile Wisconsin pols would do in Illinois. One is Paul Ryan; the other is Scott Walker.

I see Cruz doing uniformly badly, so his credibility as a candidate is unsupported. About all I can say is that he could win the Presidency if the 2016 election is ragged in much the same way as elections are rigged in Ted's father's native land.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on November 22, 2013, 05:57:56 am
Montana is almost all bad news for Democrats. The Democratic Governor is popular, but such is the only good news for the Democrats in Montana.

Quote
Chris Christie .................................................. 51%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 34%

Rand Paul ....................................................... 52%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 39%

Ted Cruz ......................................................... 50%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 39%

Jeb Bush......................................................... 49%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 38%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_MT_112113.pdf

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()





Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on November 22, 2013, 08:46:28 am
Quinnipiac, Florida:

Even though


Quote
Florida voters disapprove 57 - 40 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, matching his all-time worst score, a 57 - 39 percent disapproval, in a September 22, 2011, Quinnipiac University poll.

Such does not make a Republican win of Florida in 2016 now look likely:

Quote
Head to head, Clinton gets 47 percent to Bush's 45 percent. She  tops other Republicans:

    45 - 41 percent over Christie;
    50 - 43 percent over Rubio;
    51 - 41 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
    50 - 42 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin;
    52 - 36 percent over Cruz.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1980


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on November 22, 2013, 09:02:25 am
I think you should add Ted Cruz and get rid of Ryan.  Hardly anyone polling on him anymore.

I dumped Marco Rubio because he was stumbling around badly, and nobody was talking about him as Presidential material. People were talking about the next-to-last Republican nominee for Vice-President for a long time... and Paul Ryan hasn't made a fool of himself yet. Well, at least not as badly as Rick Perry or Marco Rubio.

As you can see, Quinnipiac just polled Florida for several binary matchups between Hillary Clinton and several imaginable Republican nominees. Paul Ryan was one of them. Florida is a surprisingly-good microcosm of America.

I can dump Ryan in favor of Cruz -- but so far I see Cruz doing badly just about everywhere that is not a sure R state.   


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 22, 2013, 09:11:55 am
pbrower, Hillary leads Bush 47-45 in the new Quinnipiac poll.

You need to change the Hillary/Bush map to a 40% shade.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 23, 2013, 07:42:00 am
Update on the latest statewide polls of Christie vs. Clinton:

AK: Christie +8
AR: Clinton +2
CO: Christie +8
FL: Clinton +4
GA: Christie +2
IA: tie
LA: Clinton +1
ME: Clinton +8
MI: Clinton +6
MN: Clinton +6
MS: Christie +9
MT: Christie +17
NH: Clinton +4
NJ: Clinton +4
NC: Christie +3
NY: Clinton +16
OH: Clinton +9
PA: Clinton +5
SC: Christie +5
TX: Christie +5
VA: Clinton +2
WV: Christie +9
WI: Clinton +10
WY: Christie +28

Clinton leads by 4 in FL, NH, and NJ.  If all of these polls reflected the true results, one of those three would be the "tipping point state".

The swing from the 2012 election would then be:

AK: D+6
AR: D+26
CO: R+13
FL: D+3
GA: D+6
IA: R+6
LA: D+21
ME: R+7
MI: R+3
MN: R+1
MS: D+3
MT: R+3
NH: R+2
NJ: R+14
NC: R+1
NY: R+10
OH: D+6
PA: no change
SC: D+5
TX: D+11
VA: R+2
WV: D+18
WI: D+3
WY: D+13

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on November 23, 2013, 11:56:54 am
pbrower, Hillary leads Bush 47-45 in the new Quinnipiac poll.

You need to change the Hillary/Bush map to a 40% shade.

20% shade because the lead is only 2% with less than 50%. The correction is made.

That said, if she is doing that well against a former governor of Florida who wasn't that bad... then Hillary Clinton can overcome the usual Favorite Son effect.  Against Jeb Bush she could win easily without Florida because she would have excellent chances of winning at least three states (North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia) that a Republican nominee absolutely must win to have a chance. Basically she would have to win one of those three states (If I were her I would not count on Colorado), and Florida would be the difference between winning 300 and winning 329 electoral votes. If Rick Scott is still Governor, he probably 'delivers' Florida to the GOP through means other than campaigning.

The last poll of Georgia had a tie between Hillary and Jeb. Such may show the relevance of the Favorite Son.   


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on November 23, 2013, 06:44:11 pm
Once again time to update, after the releases of two more polls, one in Virginia, the other in New York. The number of total state polls added to the lists below has now reached 70.

One more update, on November 24, to include the two latest polls of Montana and Florida. Both polls are very god news for Republicans, in the sense that Hillary's Florida lead has been cut in more than half and GOP's lead in Montana has increased by 5% as well.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +4%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

Florida: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+3% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+2% R improvement

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement

Kentucky: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +2.5%
+25% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+3.5% R improvement

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.4%
+1.2% R improvement
(Updated with September poll)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +7.2%
+10.6% R improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +20.3%
+7.9% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +3%
+1% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+1.5% R improvement

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: D +12%
+7% D improvement

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated with latest October poll, though Bush was not among those polled)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.5%
+3.65% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting an 7.5% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

20% shade = 0-1% lead
30% shade = 1-3% lead
40% shade = 3-6% lead
50% shade = 6-9% lead
60% shade = 9-12% lead
70% shade = 12-15% lead
80% shade = 15-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 203 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 110 EVs (for a total of 12 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured an impressive 64.9% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.1% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York & Maine of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far (3 if including New Jersey), against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 16 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +25%
2. Arkansas: D +22%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. New Jersey: R +10.6%
9. Colorado: R +9%
10. New York: R +7.9%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Pennsylvania: D +7%
13. Alaska: D +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%

All of these changes (in the 14 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The only non-candidate states (excluding New Jersey & Wisconsin) which have moved considerably towards Republican candidate(s) so far, have been Colorado, Maine & New York. It will be interesting to see why this sole and very important swing state is bucking the trend which is occurring in almost the entire rest of the United States.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +20.3%
Pennsylvania: D +12%
Maine: D +8%
New Jersey: D +7.2%
(including Exit Poll from Governor's race)
Michigan: D +6%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +4.5%
New Hampshire: D +4.4%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Iowa: D +4%
Florida: D +4%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Kentucky: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%

Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +3%
Colorado: R +4%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


All lists and numbers above are based on no less than 70 individual polls from different pollsters. The vast majority of them conducted in 2013.

Last updated on November 26.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Senator Cris on November 24, 2013, 04:48:25 am
Florida: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +4%
+3% D improvement

Florida is:

Florida: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +2%
+1% D improvement


Is right?


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on November 24, 2013, 08:17:53 am
Florida: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +4%
+3% D improvement

Florida is:

Florida: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +2%
+1% D improvement


Is right?

No, cause Jeb Bush's poll numbers are based on five local polls, while Christie strangely enough has only been polled this once in the state. It's too early to say if Bush or Christie will end up as the strongest candidate for Florida, but it might very well be Bush in the end. However, until this last poll, even Bush did horrendously in most Florida match-ups, trailing Hillary by an average of 9%.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on November 24, 2013, 09:52:09 am
We will get one 'new' state this weekend -- Illinois, with 20 electoral votes. It could be interesting. Without a Favorite Son running for President this time, Illinois could end up much closer in 2016. The Favorite Son effect is both additive and subtractive.

Such was true of Texas between 2004 and 2008. 


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on November 26, 2013, 12:46:58 am
Wall Street Journal/Marist/WNBC-TV (NBC-4, New York City)

Quote
The poll also looked beyond Mr. Cuomo's re-election race. It found that if he were to pursue a presidential bid for 2016 and win the Democratic nomination, he would beat New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a Republican, in a hypothetical general election matchup by 51% to 44% among New York state registered voters.

Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would win a wider margin against Mr. Christie, beating him among New York voters by 57% to 39%.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304465604579220182335855674


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()
[/quote]


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on November 27, 2013, 10:39:03 am
Latest update on December 9th with the 5th Colorado poll on presidential match-ups this year.

Once again time to update, after the releases of five more polls, three today, in Iowa, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and two yesterday, in Virginia and New York. The Pennsylvania poll is a semi-dramatic one, as it changes the state's status as a lean/likely D state into an absolute toss-up, as of now at least. The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 75.


(One more update, on November 24, to include the two latest polls of Montana and Florida. Both polls are very god news for Republicans, in the sense that Hillary's Florida lead has been cut in more than half and GOP's lead in Montana has increased by 5% as well.)

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +4.75%
+10.1% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on December 9)

Florida: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+3% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.7%
+4.1% R improvement
(Updated on November 27)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +2.5%
+25% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on April 9)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on June 4)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.4%
+1.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 18)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +7.2%
+10.6% R improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +20.3%
+7.9% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +3%
+1% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement
(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.5%
+4.9% R improvement
(Updated on November 27)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement[/color]
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29, though Bush was not among those polled)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.1%
+3% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.9% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

20% shade = 0-1% lead
30% shade = 1-3% lead
40% shade = 3-6% lead
50% shade = 6-9% lead
60% shade = 9-12% lead
70% shade = 12-15% lead
80% shade = 15-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 203 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 110 EVs (for a total of 12 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.9% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 35.1% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +25%
2. Arkansas: D +22%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. New Jersey: R +10.6%
9. Colorado: R +10.1%
10. New York: R +7.9%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Pennsylvania: R +4.9%

All of these changes (in the 14 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +20.3%
Maine: D +8%
New Jersey: D +7.2%
(including Exit Poll from Governor's race)
Current estimated/projected national average: D +6.9%
Michigan: D +6%
Minnesota: D +6%
New Hampshire: D +4.4%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Florida: D +4%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Kentucky: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Iowa: D +1.7%
Pennsylvania: D +0.5%

Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +3%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


All lists and numbers above are based on no less than 75 individual polls from different pollsters. The vast majority of them conducted in 2013.

Despite the near inmense number of bad polls for Hillary, Obama and Democrats during the past month or so, Hillary is still expected to beat the tailor-made Republican (which in 17 of 26 cases happens to be Christie) by an impressive projected 6.9% nationally.

8 or 9 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas, Iowa & Pennsylvania (all leaning towards Hillary), plus Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina (all leaning Republican). After this last poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.


Last updated on December 9.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on November 27, 2013, 01:32:56 pm
Please everyone, use your democratic right and go and vote for one of the five so far no-polled states which might be polled by Public Policy Polling this weekend. Those five states are, in decreasing number of importance (counting from their number of Electoral Votes):

Maryland: 10 EVs
Oregon: 7 EVs
Connecticut: 7 EVs
New Mexico: 5 EVs
Rhode Island: 4 EVs

Here's the link to go to vote: http://publicpolicypolling.com/


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Scott on November 27, 2013, 01:37:49 pm
I voted for Kentucky.  I don't see the big need for any of the states you listed to be polled yet.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on November 27, 2013, 01:41:56 pm
I voted for Kentucky.  I don't see the big need for any of the states you listed to be polled yet.

Luckily Oregon is leading though, yet I personally voted for Maryland. :P


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on November 27, 2013, 06:04:49 pm
Ohio, Quinnipiac:

In an early look at the 2016 run for the White House, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gets 42 percent to 41 percent for New Jersey Republican Gov. Christopher Christie in Ohio. Secretary Clinton tops Gov. John Kasich 49 - 38 percent and leads other Republicans:

    50 - 37 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
    48 - 39 percent over U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida;
    50 - 40 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
    49 - 41 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.
    50 - 35 percent over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1985

Pennsylvania, PPP:

Christie 48%, Clinton 44%
Clinton 48%, Bush 44%
Clinton 51%, Paul 43%
Clinton 51%, Santorum 42%
Clinton 53%, Cruz 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_PA_112713.pdf

Chris Christie must be an unusually-good match for Pennsylvania but not so good a match for Ohio. Go figure.


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 28, 2013, 03:01:34 am
pbrower, Christie is actually leading Hillary in Iowa and Virginia.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on November 28, 2013, 06:19:49 pm
pbrower, Christie is actually leading Hillary in Iowa and Virginia.

The Iowa poll is commissioned by an entity that has the word "conservative" in its name.
   
Re: VA-Polling Company/WomanTrend/Washington Free Beacon: Christie ahead
« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2013, 12:34:39 pm »    

It should be noted that the Washington Free Beacon is a conservative newspaper and that the owner of the Polling Company is a former aide to Newt Gingrich.

Iowa and Virginia get polled often enough.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 01, 2013, 02:47:29 am
Update on the latest statewide polls of Christie vs. Clinton:

AK: Christie +8
AR: Clinton +2
CO: Christie +8
FL: Clinton +4
GA: Christie +2
IA: Christie +5
LA: Clinton +1
ME: Clinton +8
MI: Clinton +6
MN: Clinton +6
MS: Christie +9
MT: Christie +17
NH: Clinton +4
NJ: Clinton +4
NC: Christie +3
NY: Clinton +18
OH: Clinton +1
PA: Christie +4
SC: Christie +5
TX: Christie +5
VA: Christie +2
WV: Christie +9
WI: Clinton +10
WY: Christie +28

The swing from the 2012 election would then be:

AK: D+6
AR: D+26
CO: R+13
FL: D+3
GA: D+6
IA: R+11
LA: D+21
ME: R+7
MI: R+3
MN: R+1
MS: D+3
MT: R+3
NH: R+2
NJ: R+14
NC: R+1
NY: R+8
OH: R+2
PA: R+9
SC: D+5
TX: D+11
VA: R+6
WV: D+18
WI: D+3
WY: D+13

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on December 09, 2013, 06:10:55 pm
Republicans seem to be reversing the Democratic trend of the last six years or so in Colorado.

Quote
December 3-4 2013
Survey of 928 Colorado voters

Colorado Survey Results (PPP)

Q1
Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the state legislature today, would you vote for
the Democratic or Republican candidate from
your district?

42% Democrat

47% Republican

12% Not sure
..........................................................
Q2
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?

47% Hillary Clinton

43% Jeb Bush

11% Not sure

Q3
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?

39% Hillary Clinton

46% Chris Christie

15% Not sure

Q4
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?

48% Hillary Clinton

45% Ted Cruz

7% Not sure

Q5
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?

45% Hillary Clinton

47% Rand Paul

8%   Not sure
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_CO_120913.pdf

Note, though:

Very Republican sample at 47-46 Obama-Romney, though.


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on December 11, 2013, 09:43:14 am
National, Pew Research:

In a hypothetical general election matchup, Clinton has an edge over Christie and a double-digit lead against anyone else. She leads:

    Christie 48-45;
    Rubio 52-42;
    Bush 53-41;
    Paul 55-40;
    Ryan 56-40;
    Perry 58-37;
    Cruz 57-35;
    Palin 59-36.

Christie does better among Democrats and moderates against Clinton than his fellow Republicans. He also does better among men, which a Republican needs to offset the Democrats’ usual lead among women.

“He chips away a little,” said Miringoff. “But Clinton has her way with the crowd.

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/12/10/211208/hillary-clinton-dominates-early.html#storylink=cpy

My interpretation based on how the undecided would go: they either do not vote or go ineffectively to the loser. Hillary Clinton would win much like Obama in 2012 against Christie, roughly 51.5-48.5 (I don't like decimals, but they are close enough to split the vote some, probably about 6-4 for Christie). Hillary would lose the undecided about 7-3 against Bush or Rubio. With the others the undecided are almost all on the Right, and they would go R about 9-1.

Christie 51-48   Kennedy 1960
    Rubio 55-45  Eisenhower 1952
    Bush 56-44   GHW Bush 1988
    Paul 56-44    GHW Bush 1988
    Ryan 57-43   Reagan 1980
    Perry 59-41  Reagan 1980
    Cruz 58-42   Reagan 1980
    Palin 60-40   LBJ 1964

...If anyone is thinking about Sarah Palin as the Great Female Hope for the GOP, she still has one gigantic weakness: her mangled language will offend anyone whose first language is not English, whether that language is German or Tagalog, Russian or Arabic, Hindi or Chinese, or Farsi or Vietnamese.     

In view of his ability to cut even a small deal with Democratic Senator Patty Murray, his stock has probably risen since this poll. I am not abandoning him yet.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 11, 2013, 10:16:24 am

Huh?  Pew Research?


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on December 11, 2013, 11:01:41 am
Monmouth, NJ


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()




Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Senator Cris on December 11, 2013, 11:51:46 am
Why NJ is blue in the Clinton vs. Bush map?


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on December 11, 2013, 03:13:45 pm
Why NJ is blue in the Clinton vs. Bush map?

Intended for Christie. Corrected.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on December 11, 2013, 03:21:11 pm
December 5-8, 2013
Survey of 1,034 Michigan voters (PPP)
Quote
Q4
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
46% Hillary Clinton

42% Jeb Bush

12% Not sure

Q5
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?

43% Hillary Clinton

40% Chris Christie

18% Not sure

Q6 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
49% Hillary Clinton

38% Ted Cruz

13% Not sure
Q7
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?

48% Hillary Clinton

39% Rand Paul

13%  Not sure

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_MI_121113.pdf

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()





Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on December 11, 2013, 06:34:06 pm
The very latest poll I've added is the PPP poll of Kentucky, which shifts that state from leaning Hillary by 2.5% versus Rand Paul into a leaning Republican state with Jeb Bush and Christie both beating the presumptive Democratic nominee by 4%, both being polled for the first time against Hillary in the state.

Current update as of December 22.


Adding the four latest polls on North Carolina, Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania to the already extensive state-wide poll database we've been collecting this year.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 81.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +4.75%
+10.1% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on December 9)

Florida: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+3% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+5% R improvement
(Updated on December 12)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.4%
+1.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 18)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.5%
+12.3% R improvement
(Updated on December 12)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +20.3%
+7.9% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +3%
+1% R improvement
(Updated on December 13)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement
(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29, though Bush was not among those polled)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.6%
+2.7% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 18 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. New Jersey: R +12.3%
8. Texas: D +11%
9. Colorado: R +10.1%
10. New York: R +7.9%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Iowa: R +5.4%
15. Michigan: R +5%
16. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +20.3%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.6%

Minnesota: D +6%
New Jersey: D +5.5%
(including Exit Poll from Governor's race)
Michigan: D +4.5%
New Hampshire: D +4.4%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Florida: D +4%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +3%
Kentucky: R +4%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


All lists and numbers above are based on no less than 81 individual polls from different pollsters. The vast majority of them conducted in 2013.

Despite the near inmense number of bad polls for Hillary, Obama and Democrats during the past month or so, Hillary is still expected to beat the tailor-made Republican (which in 18 of 26 cases happens to be Christie) by an impressive projected 6.6% nationally.

7 or 8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.


Last updated on December 22.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on December 13, 2013, 10:53:40 am
NC, PPP

-Just as we found a month ago Chris Christie is the only Republican who leads Hillary Clinton at this point in North Carolina, 45/42. Clinton has modest leads over Jeb Bush (46/45) and Rand Paul (48/44) and then holds a wider lead over Ted Cruz at 49/41.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/12/north-carolina-miscellany.html#more

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on December 17, 2013, 09:40:34 am
Quote
In an early look at the 2016 presidential race, New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie leads former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton 45 - 40 percent.

There is a large gender gap as women back Clinton 49 - 39 percent while men back Christie 51 - 30 percent. Independent voters back the Republican 44 - 35 percent.

In another matchup, Clinton gets 45 percent to 44 percent for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky. She tops U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas 48 - 41 percent and leads former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush 47 - 40 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=1989

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on December 19, 2013, 03:32:21 pm
Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac:

Clinton 44, Christie 43
Clinton 52, Paul 40
Clinton 51, Santorum 38
Clinton 52, Bush 36
Clinton 54, Cruz 36

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1992

This is with President Obama having an approval rate of only 39% in the state.

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()




Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on December 21, 2013, 07:50:27 am
49-43 Paul/Clinton

46-42 Bush/Clinton

44-40 Christie/Clinton

44-41 Clinton/Cruz

December 12-15, 2013
Survey of 1,509 Kentucky voters

http://www.scribd.com/document_downloads/192171096?extension=pdf&from=embed&source=embed

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()




Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on December 21, 2013, 11:16:28 pm
It's about high time PPP and other pollsters start polling Democratic strongholds like California, Illinois, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, New Mexico, Massachusetts, Maryland, Connecticut and so on.

I've updated my poll database above, which switched Kentucky from Democratic to Republican, going from +2.5% Democratic to +4% Republican, a switch of impressive 6.5%, due to this being the very first time Bush & Christie were included in a Kentucky match-up. Despite this massive change, Hillary is still projected to win the national vote by a 6.6% lead, though that is presuming that every state has an equal importance in the outcome of the national vote, which is of course not the case; Texas will for instance matter a lot more than Alaska or Wyoming. It's thus interesting that Texas is among the states that are currently switching the most strongly towards Hillary. On the other side, New York is trending towards Christie. Florida trends towards Hillary, yet not massively like Texas. Who knows how California will go though. We can only speculate.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 01, 2014, 10:12:38 am
I've been slow to do so, but I am ready to drop Paul Ryan in favor of Ted Cruz. Here's why:

1. Paul Ryan shows signs of seeking power within the House of Representatives. Such is shown in his lackluster performance in the Presidential campaign. He wanted to be one of the ten most powerful members of the House more than he wanted to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency.

2. Governor Scott Walker is more likely to be the "Great Midwestern Hope" of the GOP for transforming America into a Christian and Corporate State. He may be abrasive and confrontational -- but that well fits the views of people who want America to be competitive with countries with ultra-cheap labor, who want unions made irrelevant if not outlawed, who want government to represent wealth and bureaucratic power within Corporate America instead of with 'ingrates' who don't realize that their personal poverty is necessary for 'national greatness', who prefer that education train people for servile roles and hard toil instead of offering the ability to judge propaganda, who want the potentially-profitable segments of the public sector sold cheaply to them so that they can be run by profiteering monopolists, and who see dissidents with pure plutocracy as traitors. For standing up to liberals, unions, college students, and environmentalists he is as great a hero to those who want a semi-fascist America as someone who defeated a national enemy. Hell for 90% of the people so that 1% can enjoy sybaritic excess is the norm of (in)human history. 

I would replace Paul Ryan with Scott Walker if he were available in polling.

3. We now have plenty of polls with Ted Cruz. He has a following, and if he is less than Presidential as a potential candidate, then such will show much as it did with Mario Rubio this time or Rick Perry the last time -- and if we see him losing Arizona and Missouri we could see someone replacing him in polling. Those with Ryan are now old; PPP did not ask about him in Illinois. Jeb Bush seems more promising than Rubio, who might lose his Senate seat

4. I predict that if Scott Walker is re-elected he will jump to the top of the GOP pack. Until then we get to see how relevant Ted Cruz is.     


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 01, 2014, 10:22:00 am
Blank map.

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 01, 2014, 10:26:28 am
Going back to fill for Clinton vs. Cruz. Start with Kentucky:

Quote
49-43 Paul/Clinton

46-42 Bush/Clinton

44-40 Christie/Clinton

44-41 Clinton/Cruz

December 12-15, 2013
Survey of 1,509 Kentucky voters

http://www.scribd.com/document_downloads/192171096?extension=pdf&from=embed&source=embed

Unambiguous underperformance by Cruz.

Clinton vs. Cruz

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

()




Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 01, 2014, 10:35:57 am
Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania.

The middle shade for Cruz in three of the five states understates the reality because Hillary Clinton has large leads with nearly 50%. She has Pennsylvania by 54-38.  

Clinton vs. Cruz

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

()




Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 01, 2014, 10:58:33 am
Back as far as late September -- and I am not using polls by an organization that has "Conservative" in its name or by a newsletter operated by an associate of Newt Gingrich.

FL  (Quinn) 52 - 36 percent over Cruz.

MT (PPP) Ted Cruz ......................................................... 50%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 39%

OH (Quinn) 50 - 35 percent over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.

CO (PPP)
48% Hillary Clinton - 45% Ted Cruz - 7% Not sure
WI (Marquette Law School)
Clinton 55, Cruz 33

TX (PPP)
Cruz leads Clinton only 48/45

ME (PPP)
H Clinton  57 T Cruz 30

CO (Quinn)
Clinton and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas tied at 44 - 44 percent (supplants the older PPP poll)
MS (PPP)
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

WV (PPP)
41% Hillary Clinton - 44% Ted Cruz

Clinton vs. Cruz

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

()





Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 01, 2014, 11:05:00 am
Clinton vs. Cruz

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

()

..........................................................................

With these data points this looks much like Hillary Clinton winning about like Eisenhower over Stevenson in the 1950s or the elder Bush over Dukakis in 1988. It wouldn't be long before we see some fresh Great Right Hope in polling. Ted Cruz has yet to establish himself as Presidential material. 






Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Wolverines34 on January 01, 2014, 11:37:37 pm
wow! amazing maps guys!.

clinton seems to be whipping the floor with everyone, even christie.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 02, 2014, 01:15:16 am
wow! amazing maps guys!.

clinton seems to be whipping the floor with everyone, even christie.

If Barack Obama proves all in all a failure as President -- and he still can be -- then the Democrats could lose with the new FDR against the new George W. Bush or (if such is possible) even worse. If he achieves everything that Democrats can imaginably achieve with the Presidency, then the Republicans can win by promising some variant of 'normalcy' nearly a century later.

Hillary Clinton is not 'whipping the floor with Christie'.

Remember -- the Republicans still have the money, and they can use it to convince people of things that make little sense but prove absurd only after the 2020 election.   


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Bevinevitable on January 02, 2014, 07:03:52 am
wow! amazing maps guys!.

clinton seems to be whipping the floor with everyone, even christie.

If Barack Obama proves all in all a failure as President -- and he still can be -- then the Democrats could lose with the new FDR against the new George W. Bush or (if such is possible) even worse.

As I've said in other threads, I think that's absolutely wrong. McCain would've won the election if it took place in mid September 2008 despite the fact that Bush had a 20% approval rating with that very same electorate. Gore and Bush were deadlocked despite Clinton's 65% approval rating. Obama's popularity will be a factor, but it is not anywhere near as big of a factor as everyone thinks. It matters much more in re-election races, not open seats.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 08, 2014, 03:56:18 pm
Posted elsewhere:

Know beforehand:

GOP pollsters Tony Fabrizio and David Lee rolled out a new firm — Fabrizio, Lee & Associates — that they describe as a “successor” to Fabrizio’s former company, Fabrizio McLaughlin & Associates.

“[Lee] is certainly at the top of the next generation of GOP pollsters and I am proud to have him as my partner,” Fabrizio said in a Tuesday news release.

The name change represents somewhat of a clarification for the firm. In the 1990s, Fabrizio worked with John McLaughlin, but the partnership disbanded amicably over the 1996 presidential campaign, Lee said in an interview with CQ Roll Call. Fabrizio worked for Republican candidate Bob Dole, while McLaughlin polled for Republican rival Steve Forbes.

McLaughlin’s brother, Jim, continued to work with Fabrizio into the next decade. He left in the early 2000s, but Fabrizio continued to use the McLaughlin name out of convenience, Lee said.

“This is the next step in our relationship,” Lee added.

The McLaughlin brothers have their own polling firm, McLaughlin & Associates.

http://atr.rollcall.com/republicans-form-new-polling-firm/


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on January 15, 2014, 11:24:28 pm
With a new Harper poll coming out from Michigan yesterday, my stats will have to be updated once more. Hillary lead every one of her 4 opponents by numbers ranging from +2% till +10%, slightly worse than her previous average in the state. Her lead on Christie in the state has thus shrunk from +4.5% till +3.7% right now.

Today though, PPP released two new state polls, which both basically just underscored the already established reality. The New Hampshire poll of Hillary beating Christie by 4% is surprisingly close to the already established consensus of +4.4% in the state. Also the North Carolina poll of Christie +1% was really close to the previous average of 3%.


Current update as of January 16.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 84.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +4.75%
+10.1% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on December 9)

Florida: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+3% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+5.8% R improvement
(Updated on January 16)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.3%
+1.3% R improvement
(Updated on January 16)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.5%
+12.3% R improvement
(Updated on December 12)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +20.3%
+7.9% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +2.3%
+0.3% R improvement
(Updated on January 16)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement
(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29, though Bush was not among those polled)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.5%
+2.7% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 18 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. New Jersey: R +12.3%
8. Texas: D +11%
9. Colorado: R +10.1%
10. New York: R +7.9%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Michigan: R +5.8%
15. Iowa: R +5.4%
16. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +20.3%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.6%

Minnesota: D +6%
New Jersey: D +5.5%
(including Exit Poll from Governor's race)
New Hampshire: D +4.3%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Florida: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +2.3%
Kentucky: R +4%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


All lists and numbers above are based on no less than 84 individual polls from different pollsters. The vast majority of them conducted in 2013.

Despite the near inmense number of bad polls for Hillary, Obama and Democrats during the past 2-3 month or so, Hillary is still expected to beat the tailor-made Republican (which in 18 of 26 cases happens to be Christie) by an impressive projected 6.6% nationally.

7 or 8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.


Last updated on January 16.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 16, 2014, 12:24:47 am
I haven't included Harper polls commissioned by an organization named "Conservative Intelligence". For much the same reason I would not include polls commissioned by the NAACP.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 17, 2014, 11:15:48 am
Christie is also the only one of the Republican hopefuls who leads Hillary Clinton in the state (NC), albeit by the razor thin margin of 43/42. Clinton has small leads over Jeb Bush (46/44), Rand Paul (47/43), and Ted Cruz (47/41).

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/01/north-carolinians-strongly-back-teacher-pay-increase.html#more

NH -- Clinton vs. Christie, 43-39, J. Bush 49-38, Cruz 51-32, Paul 50-37

(Really, no change in the map. For reasons explained above I am not showing the Harper poll for "Conservative Intelligence" in Michigan.  

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()





Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 17, 2014, 11:23:48 am
Hillary Clinton, 47-41 over Cruz in North Carolina, 51-32 over Cruz, NH (PPP)

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

()



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: MATTROSE94 on January 18, 2014, 06:44:44 pm
Hillary Clinton, 47-41 over Cruz in North Carolina, 51-32 over Cruz, NH (PPP)

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

()


I'm surprised that Ted Cruz is polling that poorly in his home state of Texas. I was expecting him to be polling at 60%, even against Hillary Clinton.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on January 18, 2014, 06:57:57 pm
Hillary Clinton, 47-41 over Cruz in North Carolina, 51-32 over Cruz, NH (PPP)

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

()


I'm surprised that Ted Cruz is polling that poorly in his home state of Texas. I was expecting him to be polling at 60%, even against Hillary Clinton.

Texas is changing my friend, and it's changing fast! :P


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: New_Conservative on January 19, 2014, 12:49:41 am
Are you guys taking into account that PPP does have a left-leaning bias?


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Flake on January 19, 2014, 12:59:26 am
Are you guys taking into account that PPP does have a left-leaning bias?

Actually it was the most accurate pollster in 2012, so I don't think there's much bias.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 19, 2014, 01:45:15 am
Are you guys taking into account that PPP does have a left-leaning bias?

Actually it was the most accurate pollster in 2012, so I don't think there's much bias.

By what measure was it the most accurate pollster?

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Chosen One Giuseppe Conte on January 19, 2014, 04:05:08 am
Are you guys taking into account that PPP does have a left-leaning bias?

It has that reputation, and it's understandable why it would since it's loosely affiliated with the Democratic Party, but statistically that doesn't seem to actually be the case.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 19, 2014, 12:10:28 pm
Hillary Clinton, 47-41 over Cruz in North Carolina, 51-32 over Cruz, NH (PPP)

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

()


I'm surprised that Ted Cruz is polling that poorly in his home state of Texas. I was expecting him to be polling at 60%, even against Hillary Clinton.

Texas is changing my friend, and it's changing fast! :P

Ted Cruz does not have such a strong connection to Texas as one might expect. He was not born there, and even if he is half-Hispanic, he is the wrong sort of Hispanic. He's a right-wing Cuban-American. The vast majority of Texas Hispanics are Mexican-Americans whose political culture is closer to that of New York Jews than to right-wing Cuban-Americans in Florida. Anti-Communism is not the polestar of Mexican-American politics. He's an evangelical Christian, which is very much in the minority of Hispanics of any origin, and being part of a tradition hostile to Roman Catholicism is not good for reaching Catholic voters.   

I'm not so sure that Cuban-Americans in Florida are so right-wing as they used to be.

We shall see how well he does in Florida; PPP is polling Florida this weekend. If he isn't even close in Florida his only prospect as a Republican nominee is to go down in a crashing defeat.

Ted Cruz got elected in Texas 56-41; he did worse than Mitt Romney. He has just started a term in the US Senate, and so far he has shown himself an extremist. I'm not discussing what I do with him if he should be down worse in Florida than in North Carolina.   


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 20, 2014, 09:24:08 am
Siena, New York

If the 2016 election for president was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

60-32 Clinton/Christie (up from 56-40 in their Nov. poll)
55-35 Cuomo/Christie (Christie was ahead 47-42 in their Nov. poll)

(Nothing else relating to the 2016 Presidential election, but I figure that Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, and Scott Walker would do even worse in the Empire State). It is surprising that I have no matchups other than Clinton or Cuomo against Christie.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/SNY%20January%202014%20Poll%20Release%20--%20FINAL.pdf


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on January 20, 2014, 10:10:31 am
New Jersey has a new poll out, where Hillary is back on her throne, leading Christie with a whooping 21%. This improves Hillary's NJ average by about 5%, and also her national average by 0.2%.

Siena has released its 2nd New York poll on the 2016 election, which translates to the 4th unique NY poll on 2016 regardless of pollster. Out of the 4 polls, this is Hillary's strongest showing against Christie and almost 8% stronger than the previous consensus of polls. Thus her average also improves by 2 percentage points.


The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 86.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +4.75%
+10.1% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on December 9)

Florida: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+3% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+5.8% R improvement
(Updated on January 16)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.3%
+1.3% R improvement
(Updated on January 16)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +22.25%
+5.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 20)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +2.3%
+0.3% R improvement
(Updated on January 16)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement
(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29, though Bush was not among those polled)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.2%
+3.0% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.9% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 18 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +10.1%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%
11. Alaska: D +7%
12. Georgia: D +6%
13. New York: R +5.9%
14. Michigan: R +5.8%
15. Iowa: R +5.4%
16. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +22.25%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.9%

Minnesota: D +6%
New Hampshire: D +4.3%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Florida: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +2.3%
Kentucky: R +4%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 or 8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 18 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 5 states (Texas (!), Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Kansas)
4. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Montana)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)

Current update as of January 22.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 21, 2014, 02:45:02 pm
Nationwide:

Quinnipiac: "Bridgegate" takes toll on Christie, now trails Clinton by 8   (Tender Branson)


46-38 Clinton/Christie (was 41-42 in their last poll)
49-39 Clinton/Paul (48-41)
49-38 Clinton/Bush (48-39)
50-35 Clinton/Cruz (50-37)

The drop-off for Christie was 9%, while it was only 2-3% for the other Republicans.

From January 15 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,933 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points. The survey includes 813 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points and 803 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=1998


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 22, 2014, 03:01:27 pm
Rutgers-Eagleton, NJ

 The 2016 presidential election is far away, but if the election for president were today, and the
candidates were [ROTATE ORDER: Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Hillary Clinton],
for whom would you vote?

REGISTERED VOTERS
Christie  34%
Clinton  55%
Someone else (vol) 3%
Don't know 8%
Unwgt N= 746

http://www.rci.rutgers.edu/~redlawsk/EP/Tables2014/ChristieRatingsGWBScandalJan2014.pdf

Collapse!


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on January 26, 2014, 12:58:53 pm

Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.2%
+3.0% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.9% victory for Hillary]


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +22.25%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.9%

Minnesota: D +6%
New Hampshire: D +4.3%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Florida: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +2.3%
Kentucky: R +4%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


Now, suppose that the remaining 24 states + Washington D.C. all experience a uniform swing like the till now measured national swing of Clinton +3% compared to Obama's 2012 numbers. What would we get in these remaining states? Here's the current answer (filling out with the 26 already polled states' averages):

Washington D.C.: D +86.6%
Hawaii: D +45.7%
Vermont: D +38.6%
Rhode Island: D +30.5%
Maryland: D +29.1%
Massachusetts: D +26.1%
California: D +26.1%
New York: D +22.25%
Delaware: D +21.6%
Connecticut: D +20.3%
Illinois: D +19.9%
Washington: D +17.9%
Oregon: D +15.1%
New Mexico: D +13.2%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Nevada: D +9.7%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.9%

Minnesota: D +6%
New Hampshire: D +4.3%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Florida: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +2.3%
Kentucky: R +4%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%

Arizona: R +6.1%
Missouri: R +6.4%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%

Indiana: R +7.2%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%

South Dakota: R +15%
North Dakota: R +16.6%
Tennessee: R +17.4%
Nebraska: R +18.8%
Alabama: R +19.2%
Wyoming: R +28%
Idaho: R +28.9%
Oklahoma: R +30.5%
Utah: R +45%

According to these "estimates", the most interesting new states to poll going forward should be these, in descending order of importance/swinging ability:

1. Nevada (D +2.8% more than current national average)
2. New Mexico (D +6.3% more than n.a.)
3. Oregon (D +8.2% more than n.a.)
4. Washington (D +11% more than n.a.)
5. Arizona (R +13% more than n.a.)
6. Illinois (D +13% more than n.a.)
7. Missouri (R +13.3% more than n.a.)
8. Connecticut (D +13.4% more than n.a.)
9. Indiana (R +14.1% more than n.a.)
10. Delaware (D +14.7% more than n.a.)
11. California (D +19.2% more than n.a.)
12. Massachussetts (D +19.2% more than n.a.)
13. South Dakota (R +21.9% more than n.a.)
14. Maryland (D +22.2% more than n.a.)
15. North Dakota (R +23.5% more than n.a.)
16. Rhode Island (D +23.6% more than n.a.)
17. Tennessee (R +24.3% more than n.a.)

The remaining 7 states + D.C. aren't likely to be close in any circumstances.

Here's another fact of the polling done in the 26 states so far. What's the average swing of the 13 Democratic-leaning states (as of 2012) polled so far and what's the average swing of the 13 Republican-leaning states polled thus far? (The only states to have switched colors/allegiance by January 26, 2014 are Colorado & Arkansas.) Well the answer is this:

Average swing of 13 Democratic states polled: R +3.9%
Average swing of 13 Republican states polled: D +9.9%


Now, if we use these metrics above instead, our digital map would rather look like this:

Washington D.C.: D +79.7%
Hawaii: D +38.8%
Vermont: D +31.7%
Rhode Island: D +23.6%
New York: D +22.25%
Maryland: D +22.2%
Massachusetts: D +19.2%
California: D +19.2%
Delaware: D +14.7%
Connecticut: D +13.4%
Illinois: D +13%
Washington: D +11%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Oregon: D +8.2%
Maine: D +8%
New Mexico: D +6.3%
Minnesota: D +6%

The new estimated/projected national average would then be: D +5.8%

New Hampshire: D +4.3%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Florida: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%

Nevada: D +2.8%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%

Arizona: D +0.8%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Missouri: D +0.5%
Iowa: D +0.4%

Indiana: R +0.3%
Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +2.3%
Kentucky: R +4%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%

South Dakota: R +8.1%
Mississippi: R +9%
North Dakota: R +9.7%
Tennessee: R +10.5%
Nebraska: R +11.9%
Alabama: R +12.3%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%

Idaho: R +22%
Oklahoma: R +23.6%
Wyoming: R +28%
Utah: R +38.1%

The three closest swing/battleground states in 2016 could thus very well be Minnesota and New Mexico, followed by New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Florida. Next in line then follws Michigan, Maine, Oregon, Ohio and Nevada - all seeming like strong possibilities to become crucial battleground states if we rely on this analysis above.

This electoral map would result in 28 states + D.C. supporting Hillary for president, while the other 22 states would support whomever the Republicans decide to nominate. An even more fun fact: With this map we would be taken straight back to the nail-biting 2000 election again, in the sense that no less than 6 states would be decided by a margin of 1% or less!

Moreover, it would give us this state map:

()

Explanation:

30% shade: 0-5% margin
40% shade: 5-10% margin
50% shade: 10-15% margin
60% shade: 15-20% margin
70% shade: 20-25% margin
80% shade: 25-30% margin
90% shade: More than 30% margin

That would give us an amazing 19 battleground states with a winning candidate margin of less than 5%! And that isn't even including the states that would be within 5% of the national popular vote. Then we would have to add another 6 states for a total of 25 states. All in all the map would give us 14 states within 5% of the national popular vote.

And the EV count?

Hillary Clinton: 350 EVs
Republican nominee: 188 EVs


Seems likely/reasonable to you? Be my guest and discuss it if you want.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Bevinevitable on January 28, 2014, 11:15:01 am
That map looks pretty accurate to me if you swap AR and NC.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 30, 2014, 11:30:56 pm
Purple Strategies, Boston Globe, New Hampshire

Quote
In a head-to-head with Christie, Clinton sits on a statistically insignificant lead of 44 percent to 42 percent, and edges Bush, 46 percent to 42 percent.

...The poll, which carries an error margin of 3 percent for the whole sample, was conducted Jan. 21 through Jan. 23 among 1,052 likely New Hampshire voters.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2014/01/30/scott-brown-tied-with-jeanne-shaheen-new-hampshire-senate-poll/cWO1QLxO95GlnG3pK7wAUM/story.html


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()




Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 31, 2014, 04:04:07 pm
Quinnipiac poll of Florida:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2001

Clinton 49%
Bush 43%

Clinton 51%
Rubio 41%

Clinton 53%
Paul 38%

Clinton 51%
Christie 35%

Clinton 52%
Ryan 39%

Clinton 54%
Cruz 34%

The Christie collapse is evident in Florida, one of the two states (Ohio is the other) best described as microcosms of America. If Hillary Clinton can win Florida by a 15% margin against someone not a favorite son and by 6% against a favorite son, then she's going to win the Presidency with an Eisenhower-scale  landslide. How tough is that? Except for the LBJ landslide, the highest percentage of the total vote for a Democratic nominee since FDR in 1944 (53.39%) was Obama in 2008 (52.86%).

PPP never released its poll of Florida on the 2016 Presidential election, and I would likely average it with these results. I can't imagine Florida lurching much faster to the political left than the US as a whole.

The New Hampshire poll is probably not wrong for what it measured; it is likely obsolete.

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()





Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 31, 2014, 04:27:45 pm

Florida, Quinnipiac:

Clinton vs. Cruz

 Clinton 54% -- Cruz 34%

I have yet to take Ted Cruz seriously as a potential Republican nominee for the President. Republican nominees often win Florida by 10% or more ('52, '56, '72, '80, '84, and '88).  Democrats have not win Florida by more than 10% since 1948, and it was surprisingly close in the 1964 blowout by LBJ. Carter by 5.3% and Clinton by 6.3% are the two biggest margins for Democratic nominees in Florida.

In case Ted Cruz is seen as a Great Hispanic Hope for Republicans because he is a Cuban-American -- at this spread he would win the votes of Cuban-Americans who still have voodoo dolls of Fidel Castro in which they insert needles and little else among Hispanics. He would likely lose the Cuban-American vote in Florida at this spread.

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

()

..........................................................................

With these data points this looks much like Hillary Clinton winning about like Eisenhower over Stevenson in the 1950s or the elder Bush over Dukakis in 1988. It wouldn't be long before we see some fresh Great Right Hope in polling. Ted Cruz has yet to establish himself as Presidential material. 







Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on January 31, 2014, 06:05:59 pm
We witness a big shift today with our newest supply on Florida. It's the 7th poll officially released on the Sunshine State this season, but only the 2nd one to include Christie as well. And boy do we see tectonic shifts. The previous Republican frontrunner in the state, Christie, see's his average decline from -4% to lackluster -10%. He's basically out of the game in the state now. In comes, instead, Jeb Bush. It means that Florida goes from D +4% to D +7.3%, simultaneously also strenghtening Hillary's Nationwide lead.

Also, Purple Strategies yesterday released what has now become the 5th state poll of New Hampshire, including the four NH polls of 2013. It shows strong numbers for both Christie and Bush, which means a slight improvement of 0.6% for Christie in the state overall.


The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 88.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +4.75%
+10.1% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on December 9)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+5.8% R improvement
(Updated on January 16)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +22.25%
+5.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 20)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +2.3%
+0.3% R improvement
(Updated on January 16)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement
(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.1%
+3.1% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +10.1%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%
11. Alaska: D +7%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. New York: R +5.9%
15. Michigan: R +5.8%
16. Iowa: R +5.4%
17. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +22.25%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7%

Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +2.3%
Kentucky: R +4%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 or 8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Kansas)
4. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Montana)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)

Current update as of January 31.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 31, 2014, 07:41:10 pm
This is the best scenario that I can see a Republican nominee having if he can't rely upon Florida.   He can still win:

()

In essence the Republican nominee has sealed every state that has gone to Dubya twice except Florida (which is lost), but the Democrat is struggling in Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. (I pick those states because Iowa, New Hampshire, and New Mexico all went for Dubya once; Wisconsin was extremely close in 2004; Pennsylvania was second-closest to being the tipping-point state in 2012, and Michigan could be volatile in the event of a disaster in the shaky automobile industry).

The Democratic nominee has locked up 225 electoral votes, and the Republican nominee has locked up 252 electoral votes. The Republican nominee can still lock up the election with Pennsylvania absolutely decisive in favor of the Republican but not absolutely necessary.  

Here are five ways with no overlap for a Democrat to win:

1. PA MI WI
   
2. PA MI NM NH

3. PA MI IA NM
   
4. PA MI IA NH

5. PA WI IA NM NH



Here are the ways in which a Republican wins, again with no overlap:

1. PA
   
2. MI IA
   
3. MI NH

4. MI WI
   
5. WI IA NH

Shift Nevada and its mere 5 electoral votes into the D category, and things get literally dicey (pun intended) for the Republican. The Democrat gets three more ways in which to win, and the Republican gets four more ways to win -- but those involve more contingencies.
 


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on February 06, 2014, 12:06:24 am
PPP has polled Alaska once again (third time this season). Just like the previous times, Jeb Bush is still the strongest candidate in the state, though Rand Paul is not far behind (does only 1,5% worse). Jeb Bush is ever so slightly expanding his lead in the state (going from +7% to +7.5%.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 89.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +4.75%
+10.1% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on December 9)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+5.8% R improvement
(Updated on January 16, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +22.25%
+5.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 20, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +2.3%
+0.3% R improvement
(Updated on January 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement
(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.1%
+3.1% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +10.1%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%
11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. New York: R +5.9%
15. Michigan: R +5.8%
16. Iowa: R +5.4%
17. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +22.25%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7%

Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +2.3%
Kentucky: R +4%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 or 8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Kansas)
4. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Montana)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)

Current update as of February 5.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 06, 2014, 06:45:08 am
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/02/alaska-miscellany.html

Clinton 44%
Palin 43%

Bush 47%
Clinton 39%

Paul 47%
Clinton 41%

Huckabee 45%
Clinton 41%

Christie 43%
Clinton 39%

Those are very weak leads for any Republican except for Rand Paul and Jeb Bush. Alaska seems to have a strong libertarian streak (just don't take away the oil dividend!) For what it is worth, Alaska went for John McCain by a margin of 21.5% and for Romney by 14%. Alaska probably won't be competitive in 2016. If the Republican nominee can't win Alaska by at least 10%, then few people in the Eastern Time Zone are going to stay up on Election Night to see how Alaska goes.  

Colorado, Quinnipiac

Quote
48-43 Ryan/Clinton (45-43 Ryan)

47-43 Paul/Clinton (47-44 Paul)

43-42 Clinton/Christie (was 46-38 Christie in November)

44-43 Clinton/Cruz (44-44)

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2004

Nothing on Bush. I see a Christie collapse in this poll. Others are essentially unchanged. Colorado elections have been decided late by GOTV drives. 

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()






Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 06, 2014, 02:55:08 pm
Ohio, Quinnipiac

51-34 Clinton/Cruz

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2010

Needless to say I do not take Ted Cruz seriously. I wouldn't make much of the color change, as it is a change of about 1%. In the last few elections Colorado has tended to break for Democrats late in the campaign season with Democrats turning not-so-likely voters into voters.



blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

()

..........................................................................

With these data points this looks much like Hillary Clinton winning about like Eisenhower over Stevenson in the 1950s or the elder Bush over Dukakis in 1988. It wouldn't be long before we see some fresh Great Right Hope in polling. Ted Cruz has yet to establish himself as Presidential material.  


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on February 06, 2014, 04:17:47 pm
In Colorado, which has been polled for the 6th time now, it's a very Close race between Chris Christie and Paul Ryan for the lead. Christie is still slightly Ahead, as he's leading Hillary by an average of 3.6%, despite trailing her by 1% in this latest poll. However, the two polls which have also included Ryan, shows him with an average lead of 3.5%, basically the same as Christie's lead. In other words, next time the two get polled in the state, or even just Christie does, it's hard to imagine Ryan not surpassing the New Jersey Governor then. Hillary does improve her Colorado average by 1.15%, though still trailing Obama's 2016 margin in the state by a whooping 9%.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 90.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+5.8% R improvement
(Updated on January 16, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +22.25%
+5.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 20, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +2.3%
+0.3% R improvement
(Updated on January 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement
(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.1%
+3.1% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%
11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. New York: R +5.9%
15. Michigan: R +5.8%
16. Iowa: R +5.4%
17. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +22.25%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7%

Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +2.3%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 or 8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Kansas [and almost Colorado])
4. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Montana)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)

Current update as of February 6.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on February 12, 2014, 02:40:18 pm
PPP has just polled North Carolina for the 5th time this presidential election cycle (the only one to my knowledge who's been polling the state so far), including for the 4th time with Christie included. Due to Christie having been up on Hillary the three previous times they've clashed together in the state, and Christie still only trailing the frontrunner by 3% in North Carolina, the NJ Governor still retains a very scarce lead in the state by a meager 1%. Christie is btw the only Republican who's ever been ahead of Hillary in the state in any of the 18 match-ups they've conducted. The closest non-Christie Republicans have been to endanger Hillary in the state was when Jeb Bush only trailed her by 1% in December. In other words, right now, North Carolina looks fairly safe for Hillary, unless the underlying conditions should change substatially in the years leading up to the election. This also results in North Carolina going from a slight Republican to a slight Democratic swing relative to 2012. All of the (polled) South except Virginia is now showing Democratic swings.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 91.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+5.8% R improvement
(Updated on January 16, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +22.25%
+5.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 20, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement
(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.1%
+3.2% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%
11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. New York: R +5.9%
15. Michigan: R +5.8%
16. Iowa: R +5.4%
17. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +22.25%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7%

Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


North Carolina: R +1%
Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 or 8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus North Carolina, Louisiana and Georgia (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Kansas [and almost Colorado])
4. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Montana)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)

Current update as of February 12.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 12, 2014, 10:18:24 pm
North Carolina, PPP:

Quote
Clinton- 47%
Bush- 43%

Clinton- 45%
Christie- 42%

Clinton- 47%
Paul- 44%

Clinton- 48%
Huckabee- 43%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NC_212.pdf

I don't map Huckabee yet. Prospects of the Republicans having command of the next Presidentiad (Ralph Waldo Emerson coined that word) now look very poor. Republicans have not lost North Carolina in a close election since 1976, when Carter depended heavily upon the South for popular and electoral votes. (2008 was not a close election, thank you).

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on February 12, 2014, 11:22:19 pm
Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

You've forgot to include the PPP poll from December that had Christie 4% ahead of Hillary in Kentucky.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Kentucky

Also there's the Harper poll that showed Christie ahead of Hillary in South Carolina, but I think I remember you not including it cause of the unreliableness of the pollster. Wouldn't take an earthquake for a Republican to be ahead of Hillary in SC though.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 13, 2014, 06:13:38 am
Missing polls of Kentucky from December (PPP):

Hillary Clinton    42%    Jeb Bush            46%        
Hillary Clinton    40%     Chris Christie    44%    
Hillary Clinton    44%    Ted Cruz            41%    
Hillary Clinton    43%    Rand Paul     49%

I recall rejecting the poll involving South Carolina because the organization  commissioning  for had the word "Conservative"  in its name. Hillary Clinton would probably lose South Carolina in just about any binary matchup, but if I were to use a poll with such an ideological bias where credible I might be obliged to use polls commissioned by Left-leaning interests. I have no desire to put in a poll made on behalf of the UAW or the NAACP in Ohio.     


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 13, 2014, 06:30:43 am


You've forgot to include the PPP poll from December that had Christie 4% ahead of Hillary in Kentucky.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Kentucky

Also there's the Harper poll that showed Christie ahead of Hillary in South Carolina, but I think I remember you not including it cause of the unreliableness of the pollster. Wouldn't take an earthquake for a Republican to be ahead of Hillary in SC though.

Correction made. Thank you. As elsewhere I suspect that Chris Christie has lost such crossover support as he had in other states in Kentucky as well.  But we are showing the 'fossil record' and not living reality, right?   
.........


Needless to say I do not take Ted Cruz seriously. I wouldn't make much of the color change, as it is a change of about 1%. If he is lagging in Kentucky, then he stands to lose big if the GOP nominee.



blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Clinton vs. Cruz

()

..........................................................................

With these data points this looks much like Hillary Clinton winning about like Eisenhower over Stevenson in the 1950s or the elder Bush over Dukakis in 1988. It wouldn't be long before we see some fresh Great Right Hope in polling. Ted Cruz has yet to establish himself as Presidential material. 



blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

()

..........................................................................

With these data points this looks much like Hillary Clinton winning about like Eisenhower over Stevenson in the 1950s or the elder Bush over Dukakis in 1988. It wouldn't be long before we see some fresh Great Right Hope in polling. Ted Cruz has yet to establish himself as Presidential material. 


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on February 13, 2014, 12:51:23 pm
New York has been polled for the 5th time, even by three different pollsters. This time it's Quinnipiac getting at it again, showing Hillary with a 27% edge over Christie. It doesn't change the race a whole lot, just adding another point to Hillary's already impressive lead in the state. Now it would be very interesting seeing any other of the leading GOP contenders being matched with Hillary in the state. Perhaps Paul Ryan or Jeb Bush would do better there? Even Rubio or Rand Paul could potentially have a shot - that is doing better than Christie does right now.

Also, Epic-MRA has polled Michigan for the 1st time, 5th time a pollster has polled there this season & the 4th time with Christie included. Unfortunately they only polled the Hillary-Christie match-up, yet nothing changed for the average of that contest. Hillary still leading in the state by 3.75%.


The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 93.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +23.2%
+5% R improvement
(Updated on February 13, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement
(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1%
+3.2% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.1% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%
11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Michigan: R +5.75%
15. Iowa: R +5.4%
16. New York: R +5%
17. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +23.2%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.1%

Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


North Carolina: R +1%
Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 or 8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus North Carolina, Louisiana and Georgia (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Kansas [and almost Colorado])
4. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Montana)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)

Current update as of February 14.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 15, 2014, 01:36:26 am
In view of its dreadful record in the past, I would not trust Epic-MRA for polling in Michigan. That pollster operates only in Michigan.

It has Barack Obama down 37-61, which makes no sense in a State that went 54-45 for the President in 2012. The fault with that poll is that it has a set of "excellent-good-fair-poor" choices. "Fair" in school grading is a C, good enough through a BA degree.   

In any event, the poll is still shows much the same as an earlier and more credible poll of Michigan.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 18, 2014, 01:30:33 pm
Louisiana, PPP:

Christie- 44%
Clinton- 43%

Jindal- 47%
Clinton- 45%

Paul- 47%
Clinton- 43%

Huckabee- 49%
Clinton- 44%

Bush- 50%
Clinton- 43%  

The closeness of this polling indicates that Republicans have deep trouble against Hillary Clinton nationwide. 


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on February 18, 2014, 03:30:24 pm
Louisiana has been polled for the 4th time, once again by PPP. 4 Republicans are still ahead of Hillary in the state, while Christie is tied to her and their Governor Jindal is trailing her by 2.5%. Paul Ryan is still ahead by 1%, Rand Paul by 2.5%, while Jeb Bush has opened a strong 3.5% lead. However, it's Mike Huckabee, who's been included for the first time in the state, who flashes the most impressive lead, being a whole 5% ahead of the Dem frontrunner.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 94.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +23.2%
+5% R improvement
(Updated on February 13, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement
(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.2%
+3.1% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.9% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +15%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%
11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Michigan: R +5.75%
15. Iowa: R +5.4%
16. New York: R +5%
17. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +23.2%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.9%

Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


North Carolina: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


6 or 7 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus North Carolina and Georgia (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 1 state (Kansas [and almost Colorado])
6. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of February 18.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 19, 2014, 10:32:53 am
Even if one thinks that slight recent leads for Hillary Clinton in Arkansas, Kentucky, and Louisiana  are unsustainable -- that if she has a 45-43 lead then the 45 is close to her ceiling in such states -- she has leads in some others consistent with at the least a near-repetition of 2012 for Barack Obama. (I do not average except within a week; obviously a PPP poll in March 2014 thoroughly supplants one from October 2013). So in such a state she might have a ceiling of 47% and win the state only if some third-party nominee guts the R total. 

On the other side, republicans could be close to their ceilings in such states as Colorado and Iowa, and a recent 46-45 lead  for a Republican could end up 52-47 for Clinton.

In 2008 we saw polls with Obama up 45-44 in North Dakota and South Dakota. He ended up losing those states something like 54-46.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 19, 2014, 11:03:21 am
It's telling that Ted Cruz was not shown in the PPP poll of Louisiana. In view of his poor performances he seems to now get the neglect that he deserves as a potential Republican nominee. I have kept polling for him separate from that for Bush, Christie, Paul, and Ryan.

This may show more relevance to the 2016 election: the voting behavior of the states from 1992 to 2012 in Presidential elections. So here we go:

all Republican (6R): navy 101
all but once Republican (5R, 1D): 55
4 Republican, 2 Democratic: 61
split evenly: 38
for the winner every time (4 Democratic, 2 Republican): 24
all but once Democratic (1R, 5D): red 15
all Democratic (6D): maroon 243

()    


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on February 20, 2014, 08:26:28 am
Thanks to Quinnipiac we now have our 4th poll of 2016 match-ups from the ultimate battleground state of Ohio. Because Christie previously have been lightyears ahead of everyone else on the Republican side, he keeps his lead for now, even by a considerable margin. On this last occasion though, he only polled shared third the best on the Republican side, after Paul Ryan and Ohio's own Governor John Kasich. Nevertheless, Christie slips in the crucial state by about 2.5%, going down from -3.3% to the current -5.75%.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 95.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +23.2%
+5% R improvement
(Updated on February 13, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.1%
+3.2% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +15%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%
11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Michigan: R +5.75%
15. Iowa: R +5.4%
16. New York: R +5%
17. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +23.2%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7%

Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


North Carolina: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


6 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus North Carolina and Georgia (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 1 state (Kansas [and almost Colorado])
6. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of February 20.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 20, 2014, 12:11:02 pm
Ohio update from Quinnipiac:

Quote
Clinton 51%
Bush 36%

Clinton 50%
Rubio 36%

Clinton 51%
Paul 38%

Clinton 49%
Ryan 40%

Clinton 51%
Cruz 34%

Clinton 51%
Kasich 39%

Clinton 49%
Christie 36%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2010

A Republican nominee could have a difficult time winning Indiana if he loses Ohio by 9% or more. 51% is close to the max-out position for any Democrat in Ohio -- unless there's a 60-40 split of the popular vote. 


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()




Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 20, 2014, 01:07:52 pm

Quote
Colorado, Quinnipiac

44-43 Clinton/Cruz (44-44)

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2004

Needless to say I do not take Ted Cruz seriously. I wouldn't make much of the color change, as it is a change of about 1%.

Quinnipiac asked about Cruz in Ohio:

51 - 34 percent over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2010

Enough said.





blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

()

..........................................................................

With these data points this looks much like Hillary Clinton winning about like Eisenhower over Stevenson in the 1950s or the elder Bush over Dukakis in 1988. It wouldn't be long before we see some fresh Great Right Hope in polling. Ted Cruz has yet to establish himself as Presidential material. 


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on February 24, 2014, 02:23:45 pm
PPP has polled Kansas for the 2nd time this season, yet the 4 Republican candidates they tested this time again Clinton, were tested for the first time in the state. Best of them all did Jeb Bush, leading her by 9%, thus substituting the previous leader in the state, Paul Ryan. This means that Kansas is slowly drifting away from any chances of a Hillary upset, unsurprisingly. Jeb Bush is now the presumably strongest general election candidate in no less than 7 of the 26 states tested, including the very important states of Texas and Florida.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 96.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +23.2%
+5% R improvement
(Updated on February 13, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.2%
+3.1% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.95% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%
11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Michigan: R +5.75%
15. Iowa: R +5.4%
16. New York: R +5%
17. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +23.2%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.95%

Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


North Carolina: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


6 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus North Carolina and Georgia (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of February 24.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 24, 2014, 03:05:25 pm
Kansas, PPP:

Quote
Bush- 50%
Clinton- 41%

Huckabee- 49%
Clinton- 42%

Paul- 48%
Clinton- 41%

Christie- 46%
Clinton- 39%

Surprisingly close. Hillary Clinton's ceiling in Kansas is probably around 45% (which is about how Carter did in Kansas in 1976) because the state is Kansas. As I have said elsewhere on some other states,  Kansas may never vote for a Democratic nominee for President, but when it is close, then things are very bad for the Republican. Only one Republican breaks the magic 50% line against Hillary Clinton at this stage. They probably all would.  If the Devil ran as a Republican nominee in Kansas, he'd probably win.  










blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()




Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on February 24, 2014, 03:08:18 pm
How come you have Hillary beating Rand Paul and Chris Christie in Kansas?


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 24, 2014, 06:13:56 pm
How come you have Hillary beating Rand Paul and Chris Christie in Kansas?

Not any more.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 27, 2014, 06:56:04 am
Quinnipiac, Pennsylvania

Clinton 46%
Christie 41%

Clinton 53%
Paul 38%

Clinton 54%
Cruz 34%

Clinton 53%
Bush 36%

Clinton 53%
Santorum 37%

Nothing on Ryan... or Huckabee. Christie still has (or has regained) some recognition as a moderate, or else the bridge scandal seems to not trouble Pennsylvanians as severely as it has done recently. Maybe the concern about manipulation of traffic to punish contrary politicians doesn't seem possible or relevant in Pennsylvania.  What had been a Christie lead over Clinton in the last Quinnipiac poll has gone -- and how!

The others ... well, in essence these make Hillary Clinton's lags in Kansas look trivial by contrast. Kansas is very sure R, and Pennsylvania is close to the tipping point. Win a state like Pennsylvania by 5% and you win the Presidential election.

Hillary Clinton is well above 50% against the others. Not only must the others win over every potential undecided voter; they must cut into the usual D vote in Pennsylvania, which is asking for the impossible -- barring a breaking scandal or a huge cultural change that favors just about any right-wing Republican. Against those, she wins with a margin ranging from those characteristic of Eisenhower in the 1950s to Reagan in 1984.

   

.........................


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()





Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 27, 2014, 07:25:48 am
For reasons beyond my understanding, Quinnipiac polled PA on Hillary Clinton vs. Ted Cruz.

Clinton 54%
Cruz 34%

 


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

()

So maybe I can have a little fun. Unless a state offers a clear ceiling for someone short of 50% (think of polls that had Obama up 45-44 in the Dakotas and Montana in 2008), undecided votes generally go ineffectively toward the eventual loser, making things closer than the early margins in polls.   


...If Ted Cruz picked up 80% of the gap between him and Hillary Clinton (which suggests a ceiling around 60% for any Democratic nominee for President in Pennsylvania), then Hillary Clinton would win Pennsylvania 58-42. I don't see Cruz losing Pennsylvania by a margin like 65-35 as by Goldwater in 1964. Like Mondale in 1984 or Stevenson in the 1950s?

Pennsylvania was Eisenhower's 36th best state in 1952 and 32nd-best state in 1956 -- and 46th-best state for Reagan in 1984. The closest binary election to a blowout by a Democratic nominee (Clinton in the 1990s is not binary due to Ross Perot) since 1964 for a Democrat was 2008, and then it was the 19th-best state for Obama, who won the state 54-44.

Cruz gets no advantage from any vote that would vote for a Democrat so long as the Democrat isn't  black.  Cruz loses nationwide about 56-44, and avoids getting 50 or fewer electoral votes because he wins Texas... barely. 

If you think I take Ted Cruz as a political joke -- I don't. He is simply too awful a political figure to be so taken.




Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on February 27, 2014, 08:13:02 am
Qunnipiac has polled Pennsylvania voters for the 4th time and for the 6th time when we include PPP polls of the state as well. Christie was included in the state match-ups for the 4th time, yet not losing much ground compared to the 3 previous polls in the state. He was previously ever so slightly behind Hillary - in the latest poll he still trails her by only 5%. Meaning the average given us by these 4 polls is Christie trailing Hillary by 1.75% - not at all bad by a next state Governor who's been through the whirlwind of a hurricane lately. All other GOPers trail Hillary by double digits however, even using the averages of all 6 state polls conducted. 2nd strongest Republicans are Jeb Bush & Rand Paul, each trailing Hillary by 12.5%. Their "favourite" son Rick Santorum is 14.5% behind, same as for Paul Ryan. The respective numbers are -16.5% for both Marco Rubio & Ted Cruz.

Also, PPP has conducted its 3rd match-up poll in Iowa, making it the 7th 2016 poll of Iowa so far. It's the 6th Iowa poll where Christie has been tried against Hillary. As Christie, unlike in Pennsylvania, is the weakest GOP candidate tried against her this time (of the 4 tested), Hillary's lead against Christie is slightly expanded, from 0.4% to the current 1.3%. Mike Huckabee is the 2nd strongest GOP contender in the state, only trailing Hillary by 4%. Unlike in Pennsylvania, most GOP contenders, including Cruz, are fairly competitive though.


The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 98.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.3%
+4.5% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +23.2%
+5% R improvement
(Updated on February 13, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.1%
+3.2% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.0% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%
11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Michigan: R +5.75%
15. New York: R +5%
16. Iowa: R +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled. Yet PPP will poll this state (finally) next week, so hopefully we'll get some fresh numbers then.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +23.2%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
Iowa: D +1.3%


North Carolina: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


6 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus North Carolina and Georgia (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of February 27.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 27, 2014, 08:20:07 am
Pennsylvania probably is in Hillary's column. The Q poll supplants an earlier Q poll and follows the bridge scandal. Hillary is still down compared to Obama in 2012 in Pennsylvania, but by much less.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 27, 2014, 12:10:08 pm
Iowa, PPP:

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 41%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 47%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%
Chris Christie .................................................. 39%

Q5 In the last presidential election, did you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 43%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_IA_227.pdf

Not slipping away from the Democrats this time. Nothing on Ted Cruz (as if I care). 
   

.........................


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on March 03, 2014, 09:40:12 am
Christopher Newport University has polled Virginia voters for 2016 match-ups for the first time. Of all pollsters who've polled the state - going as far back as to April 2012 to find the first one - this is the 11th Virginia poll we're including and the 10th one to include Hillary in match-ups as well (the very first one only included Mark Warner). In fact, in the 3 polls where both Hillary and home state Governor turned Senator Warner have both been tested, Mark has fairly easily out-polled Hillary in all three. However, Warner seriously struggles against Christie in the state, just like Hillary does. And the only match-up done between Warner and Christie showed Mark only 1% ahead, which is less than the average Hillary lead her match-ups with the same guy, Christie. With this latest poll, Hillary's lead over Christie has in fact shrunk by a nano size, from 2.5% to 2.4%. In other words, Bridgegate seems not to have influenced the race much at all in this crucial battleground. All the other GOP candidates are trailing Hillary with about 10% or more.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 99.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.3%
+4.5% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +23.2%
+5% R improvement
(Updated on February 13, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.4%
+1.5% R improvement
(Updated on March 3, 2013)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.1%
+3.2% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.0% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%
11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Michigan: R +5.75%
15. New York: R +5%
16. Iowa: R +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled. Yet PPP will poll this state (finally) next week, so hopefully we'll get some fresh numbers then.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +23.2%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +2.4%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
Iowa: D +1.3%


North Carolina: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


6 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus North Carolina and Georgia (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of March 3.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 03, 2014, 04:16:40 pm
Virginia, Christopher Newport University (with which I am unfamiliar)

Clinton 43%
Christie 41%

Clinton 52%
Huckabee 37%

Clinton 52%
Ryan 37%

Clinton 47%
Cruz 37%

Clinton 51%
Bush 38%

Clinton 47%
Paul 40%

Clinton 48%
Rubio 40%

Clinton 46%
Walker 35%
  

.........................

Neither Huckabee not Walker is popular in Virginia. Because Virginia is very close to the national average in voting for President, Republicans are in extreme trouble if they nominate anyone other than Chris Christie, and in a poor position if they nominate Christie.  

I've been curious about Walker because he would be a hero of the Right for his 'heroic' stances against Big Labor and Big Government.


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 04, 2014, 08:34:54 am
Three university polls.

Rutgers, NJ; Siena, NY; Roanoke, VA

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/independent_research/Issues0214%20Crosstabs%20State%20Comparison.pdf

New Jersey

Clinton 51%
Christie 41%

Clinton 58%
Paul 29%

Clinton 58%
Ryan 33%

New York

Clinton 64%
Christie 28%

Clinton 67%
Paul 24%

Clinton 64%
Ryan 27%

Virginia

Clinton 48%
Christie 40%

Clinton 52%
Paul 38%

Clinton 51%
Ryan 40%

(In practice I average polls within a week).

............................

PPP will soon have polls for Arizona.  

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on March 04, 2014, 08:50:42 am
Thanks to one and the same polling institute, Siena, we have 3 new state polls out today, covering Virginia (for the 12th time), New Jersey (for the 6th time, I'm not including the Governor race exit poll anymore [simply lost the numbers]) and New York (for the 6th time). As a matter of fact, Christie remains the strongest GOP contender in all 3 states by a substantial margin, yet trails Hillary even more than before in New York and Virginia - down from -25% to -28% in New York. New Jersey however remains unchanged. Hillary's projected national popular vote win stands now at +7.2%, basically the same win as she's currently projected to obtain in the crucial battleground of Florida as well.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 101.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.3%
+4.5% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.1%
+0.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2013)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.9%
+3.4% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.2% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.3%
10. Maine: R +7%
11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Michigan: R +5.75%
15. Iowa: R +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled. Yet PPP will poll this state (finally) next week, so hopefully we'll get some fresh numbers then.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.2%

Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.1%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
Iowa: D +1.3%


North Carolina: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


6 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus North Carolina and Georgia (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of March 4.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 04, 2014, 12:18:00 pm
Some Presidential nominees have won all three states (NJ, NY, VA). Those who have beginning in 1912 are:

Wilson 1912
Hoover 1928
FDR all four times
Eisenhower 1952 and 1956
LBJ 1964
Nixon 1972
Reagan 1980 and 1984
Obama 2008 and 2012


It's not rare (14 times, and it is split almost evenly D-R).  In all such instances, anyone who won all three states won the Presidential election.

The closest elections nationwide involving anyone winning all three states were FDR 1944 and the two with Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton, should she win in 2016 with all three states would be no exception.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on March 06, 2014, 01:26:12 pm
And finally it happened. We know how the landscape looks like in the future crucial battleground of Arizona as well. :D Which means we've now reached a consensus in no less than 27 states - very well! Right now, Arizona is about 8.4% more Republican than the nation as a whole - if we are to believe this poll. However, that margin is likely to shrink even more until election day 2016, since the Arizona demographic is among the 3-5 state demographics changing the quickest these days.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 102.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 27 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.3%
+4.5% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.1%
+0.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2013)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 27 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.9%
+3.5% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.4% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 129 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 214 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 60.2% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 39.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 27 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +9%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +5.75%
16. Iowa: R +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia, yet even Arizona is changing very rapidly.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.4%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.1%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
Iowa: D +1.3%


North Carolina: R +1%
Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 8 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of March 6.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 06, 2014, 03:13:51 pm
PPP will soon have now has polls for Arizona.

Arizona, after going for John McCain only by 8% in 2008, an unusually-small margin for a Favorite Son, looked as if it would be a swing state in 2012 or 2016.

Quote
-The Presidential race in Arizona in 2016 could be interesting as well. Hillary Clinton narrowly trails Jeb Bush (45/44), but leads Chris Christie (44/41), Rand Paul (46/43), and Mike Huckabee (47/41). Arizona could finally reach its long anticipated battleground status this cycle.   

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/mccain-least-popular-senator-in-country.html

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 12, 2014, 01:42:44 pm
North Carolina, PPP:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/north-carolinians-want-duke-to-pay.html

Clinton 47
Bush 46

Clinton 46
Christie 42

Clinton 49
Paul 43

Clinton 49
Huckabee 42

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on March 12, 2014, 03:24:45 pm
With the 6th and latest PPP poll of North Carolina, the state has turned into an absolute toss-up. Though in reality, Hillary is the actual leader of the state, since she's lead both Christie as well as any other Republican candidate for at least the past two polls. In fact, Christie is the only Republican in any of the polls to have been ahead of Clinton, yet he has been trailing Hillary by an average of 3.5% in the last two North Carolina polls.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 103.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 27 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.3%
+4.5% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.0%
+2% D improvement
(Updated on March 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.1%
+0.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2013)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 27 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.9%
+3.6% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.5% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: 15 EVs (North Carolina)
No polling: 214 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 63.1% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 36.9% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 27 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +9%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +5.75%
16. Iowa: R +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia, yet even Arizona is changing very rapidly.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.5%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.1%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
Iowa: D +1.3%


North Carolina: D +0.0%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), the toss up state of North Carolina, plus Arizona and Georgia (both leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 8 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of March 12.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 12, 2014, 07:24:49 pm
North Carolina as a toss-up? It's been done. 2008, a disastrous year for the GOP.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on March 13, 2014, 09:48:33 am
With the 8th 2016 poll from Iowa, including the 4th one from Quinnipiac, we now find major movement towards Hillary in the state. Christie slumps from trailing Hillary by 1.3% on average in the state, to now being 3.0% behind. He still remains undoubtedly the GOP candidate with the best shot though, yet now only from the perspective of levelling out polls over time.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 104.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 27 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.0%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 13, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.0%
+2% D improvement
(Updated on March 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.1%
+0.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 27 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.8%
+3.7% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: 15 EVs (North Carolina)
No polling: 214 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 63.1% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 36.9% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 27 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +9%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +5.75%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia, yet even Arizona is changing very rapidly.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.6%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.1%
Iowa: D +3.0%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%


North Carolina: D +0.0%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Iowa, Arkansas & Pennsylvania (all leaning towards Hillary), the toss up state of North Carolina, plus Arizona and Georgia (both leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 8 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of March 13.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 13, 2014, 01:30:11 pm
Quinnipiac poll of Iowa:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2019

Clinton 48%
Christie 35%

Clinton 49%
Paul 39%

Clinton 51%
Cruz 35%

Clinton 51%
Bush 37%

Not much wriggle room for Republicans. Q did ask about Cruz, but in view of how far behind he is in Iowa, a state just slightly D in 50-50 elections since about 1992 is one that he wouldn't make close. Republican nominees can win without Iowa... if this is how Iowa looks in the summer of 2016, then the only question about the Presidential election is actuarial in nature.

I'd have rather seen how Scott Walker would do in Iowa than how Ted Cruz would. PPP will be polling Wisconsin soon enough.   

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Sqad Member Omar on March 15, 2014, 07:11:20 pm
Paul needs to start campaigning fast


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 15, 2014, 07:23:43 pm
Paul needs to start campaigning fast

He may see the writing on the wall.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: hopper on March 15, 2014, 09:33:13 pm
Jeb Bush looks like the front runner on the R side now. Who would have thought that 1 year ago?


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on March 19, 2014, 08:00:18 pm
The 7th 2016 poll has been released from Colorado, making it also the 3rd Colorado poll by PPP. Hillary leads all her opponents by at least 3% (at least 7% for all except Rand Paul). On average of all the polls done in Colorado, 3 Republicans are still ahead of Hillary. Paul Ryan now leads the pack (lucky for him he wasn't polled this time) being 3.5% ahead of her. Second is now Christie, still averaging a lead of 1.8% in the state. The third lucky Republican is Rand Paul, squeeking out a tiny lead of 0.6%. The remaining Republicans - Huckabee, Cruz, Bush and Rubio - are all trailing Hillary in Colorado. Thus, since Ryan wasn't included in this poll, Colorado hardly trends for now.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 105.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 27 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on March 20, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.0%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 13, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.0%
+2% D improvement
(Updated on March 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.1%
+0.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 27 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.8%
+3.7% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: 15 EVs (North Carolina)
No polling: 214 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 23 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 63.1% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 36.9% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 16 out of 27 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +8.9%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +5.75%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia, yet even Arizona is changing very rapidly.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.6%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.1%
Iowa: D +3.0%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%


North Carolina: D +0.0%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Iowa, Arkansas & Pennsylvania (all leaning towards Hillary), the toss up state of North Carolina, plus Arizona and Georgia (both leaning Republican). If we discard Ryan's lead in Colorado, Colorado could be added as the 8th to close to call state right now.

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 16 of 27 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 8 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 1 state (Colorado)
4. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
5. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
6. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of March 20.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 20, 2014, 11:13:21 am


I'd have rather seen how Scott Walker would do in Iowa than how Ted Cruz would. PPP will be polling Wisconsin soon enough.

Whoops! It's Colorado. R disaster nonetheless.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/colorado-happy-with-marijuana-legalization-supports-gay-marriage.html

Clinton 47
Paul 44

Clinton 45
Christie 38

Clinton 48
Huckabee 41

Clinton 48
Bush 39

Clinton 49
Cruz 40  

I'm dropping the Colorado poll for Paul Ryan, as the poll is old and I see no reason for Ryan to do better than any other Republican in Colorado; besides, I think Ryan is going after power within the House of Representatives after a lackluster VP run.

I may replace Ryan with Huckabee.    

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 20, 2014, 12:07:40 pm
Blank map -- setting it up for Mike Huckabee as a potential candidate against Hillary Clinton. He gets attention now. Purpose: to remove consideration for Paul Ryan, whom I no longer consider relevant as a candidate for the Presidency in 2016. Seeking the Presidency and seeking power within the House seem incompatible, and except for Dick Cheney (chosen by Dubya for administrative talents more than for the ability to campaign or deliver a critical state) and Gerald Ford (freakish situation) we haven't had a successful campaigner for the Presidency or Vice-Presidency who has never gone 'beyond' the House of Representatives in an electoral career.

Mike Huckabee has been a Governor, indeed of a State whence one of the most successful campaigners ever came from despite having few electoral votes in that state. (That of course is Bill Clinton of Arkansas).

The map. Backtracking begins shortly.

Blank map.

()

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 20, 2014, 12:48:20 pm
Most polls come from PPP (indeed, all but one) and all are from February or March 2014.

Colorado, PPP:
Clinton 48  - Huckabee 41

Louisiana, PPP:
Huckabee- 49% - Clinton- 44%

Kansas, PPP:
Huckabee- 49% Clinton- 42%

Iowa, PPP:
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 42%

Christopher Newport University, Virginia:
Clinton 52% Huckabee 37%

Arizona, PPP:
Hillary Clinton... leads  Mike Huckabee (47/41)

North Carolina, PPP:
Clinton 49 Huckabee 42

Alaska, PPP:
Huckabee 45% Clinton 41%

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

()

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 20, 2014, 01:18:37 pm
I have enough data points for incorporating Mike Huckabee into the four-way contrast. The polls in question include five legitimate swing states:

Iowa, which is at most on the fringe of competition if the Democrat wins the Presidency, and was very close in the last two Democratic losses of the Presidential election (D+3); tipping-point state in 2008

Colorado, very close to the national average in 2008 and 2012 and the tipping point state of 2012 (R+2)

Virginia, which may have gone D in only four Presidential elections since World War II, but will now be close in a close election (R+3)

North Carolina, which needs to be a clear R victory for Republicans to truly have a chance to get elected  (R+5)

Arizona, a state whose demographics can hurt the Republicans badly in 2016 (about R+10 in 2008 and 2012, but that could be about R+5 in 2016)

A Republican nominee really needs to win four of these five states (and Florida and Ohio) to have a reasonable chance of winning the Presidency in 2016 -- and the only one of these states that the Republicans can afford to lose is Iowa -- unless he's picking up such states as Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The map does not rule that out for Huckabee yet, but if he is losing all the states that he is behind in now on Election Day, 2016 he might concede the election before the results come in from the West Coast.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 27, 2014, 06:14:21 am
Quinnipiac, Virginia:

Secretary Clinton squeaks by New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie 45 - 41 percent and tops other possible Republican contenders in the 2016 presidential race:

    47 - 39 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
    48 - 42 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
    49 - 41 over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2025
    

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 27, 2014, 06:27:12 am
In case you didn't put much credibility in a university pollster of Virginia that you may have never heard from, another university pollster (Quinnipiac) that you have heard much of pares a likely Clinton lead over Huckabee.

Secretary Clinton squeaks by New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie 45 - 41 percent ...
Quote
   49 - 41 over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2025

An 8-point lead is fairly close to what Barack Obama did in 2008 and 2012.

... What will it take for me to replace Paul Ryan, who had a disastrous campaign for VP in 2012 and would be running from the House of Representatives whence nobody has successfully campaigned for the Presidency since the 19th century, with Mike Huckabee? Pollsters seem to not be taking Ryan seriously.

A Wisconsin poll that excludes Ryan but has Huckabee?

Mike Huckabee needs not begin an official campaign for a nearly two years yet. He's getting much publicity on FoX "News" Channel, and really can't make an official campaign while having a show on FoX "News". Company policy.  He's savvy about media -- savvy enough to avoid hostile audiences for now.  

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

()

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on March 27, 2014, 12:08:01 pm
Finally we have a new state which we can happily and proudly add to the list: New Mexico! :) This state, like in the previous two presidential elections, doesn't even look close at this time. Closest to Hillary is their very own and very popular Governor Susana Martinez, yet even she trails her by a whooping 14%. Even more surprising though, a whole 4 Republicans actually outperform Christie in the state, including - believe it or not - Ted Cruz!

We also got the 12th 2016 poll from Virginia that includes Hillary match-ups. And what it kept showing was that Christie remains far ahead of his Republican competitors, which he has been in all other Virginia 2016 polls as well. However, with this poll added, Christie trails Hillary slightly more now in the state, going down from -3.1% to -3.2%.

Despite Hillary's strong numbers though in these two new polls, her predicted 2016 victory in the nation as a whole however remains unchanged at +7.6%.


The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 107.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on March 20, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.0%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 13, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.0%
+2% D improvement
(Updated on March 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.25%
+3.7% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 200 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: 15 EVs (North Carolina)
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 60.8% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 34.65% EVs for the tailormade Republican. (The remaining 4.55% are North Carolina's toss-up territory.) And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 16 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +8.9%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +5.75%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia, yet even Arizona is changing very rapidly.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.6%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Iowa: D +3.0%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%


North Carolina: D +0.0%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Iowa, Arkansas & Pennsylvania (all leaning towards Hillary), the toss up state of North Carolina, plus Arizona, Georgia & Colorado (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 16 of 28 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 8 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 1 state (Colorado)
4. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
5. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of March 27.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 27, 2014, 06:54:03 pm
Quote
Martinez would trail Hillary Clinton 53/39 in a hypothetical contest in the state. That does make her the strongest potential Republican candidate though. Clinton would also lead Rand Paul 51/36, Jeb Bush 53/37, Ted Cruz 54/37, Chris Christie 53/35, and Mike Huckabee 55/34. New Mexico hasn't been close in the last two Presidential elections and if Clinton runs that trend looks likely to continue in 2016.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/new-mexico-miscellany.html

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 27, 2014, 07:00:06 pm
New Mexico, PPP -- and Huckabee is not doing well there.  Of course, New Mexico is no longer a legitimate swing state. 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

()

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 27, 2014, 07:02:52 pm
Shall I replace the map for Ryan with the map for Huckabee?


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 28, 2014, 05:31:36 am
Shall I replace the map for Ryan with the map for Huckabee?

I think that would be a good idea. Ryan does not seem to be viable, but at least Huckabee has chance.

I concur. All in all, someone can be an ex-governor, go into the media as a political outsider, and win the Presidency by winning support as a conservative critic of liberals (Carter) and people 'not conservative enough' (Ford).  That's what Ronald Reagan did. Arkansas is not too small to have a current or former Governor become President (Bill Clinton did that). Obviously I am not saying that Mike Huckabee would do as well in a Presidential campaign as either. I can imagine him winning the nomination, which is enough. 

With Paul Ryan I have problems. Recent nominees for VP who have done badly in their one opportunity generally don't get nominated for President.  William Miller? Sargent Shriver? Geraldine Ferraro? Sarah Palin? We all saw what sort of campaigner he was in 2012; as the chance for winning the Presidency waned he started defending his House seat. 

He has never won a statewide election in his own state. Successful candidates  for the Presidency and Vice- Presidency since 1960 have all done so before such runs. (Dick Cheney won for the at-large Congressional district of Wyoming, so that qualifies him on this criterion). I would have to qualify him as having won a statewide election in Wisconsin  had he won Wisconsin as a VP nominee. Heck, George H W Bush had won all three states that he was associated in 1980 and 1984 -- his birth state (Maine, reliably D in Presidential elections after 1988), the state in which he spend his childhood years and college career (Connecticut, likewise), and the state in which he had some business and political career (Texas, not a sure thing for Republicans until 2000). The elder Bush at least had some impressive diplomatic and Cabinet posts. 

With a comparatively-safe seat he may be interested in power in the House. He's more likely to become Speaker of the House than President of the United States, and that is arguably the second-most powerful office in the US government. 

Finally he is not a war hero, so he could never turn a war record into Presidential success despite never holding statewide office as did Dwight Eisenhower.

I haven't seen many recent polls for Ryan but I have seen some for Huckabee. Those for Ryan are getting old even if there are more for him than for Huckabee. I see two precedents for Mike Huckabee becoming President of the United States (Reagan! Clinton!) and none for Paul Ryan.

Here's what a set of maps with Huckabee but not Ryan would look like:

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

()

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 09, 2014, 02:54:03 pm
Quote
-It looks like Michigan will remain solidly in the blue column if Hillary Clinton runs for President in 2016. She leads her potential Republican opponents in the state by anywhere from 9 to 12 points: it's 46/37 over Chris Christie, 48/39 over Rand Paul, 49/38 over Jeb Bush, and 50/38 over Mike Huckabee.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/04/michigan-miscellany.html

Basically, Hillary Clinton would win Michigan much as Obama did in 2012. The narrow lead that she seemed to have over Christie has ballooned significantly, and no Republican seems to now have much of a chance to win the State's 16 electoral votes in 2016 against her. Huckabee really has no chance here.

In other news, Michigan is Detroit Tiger country... and Tiger fans expect to see a big Cat Show in October as the end of the baseball season.

PPP no longer shows Paul Ryan in Michigan

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

()

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on April 09, 2014, 04:23:12 pm
With Michigan's 7th 2016 match-up poll, Hillary is able to expand further her lead in the state - although not by astronomical values. Her four previous match-ups with Christie in the state were very tight, thus Hillary is only expanding from a +3.75% to a +4.8% lead.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 108.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on March 20, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.0%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 13, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.0%
+2% D improvement
(Updated on March 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.2%
+3.7% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 200 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: 15 EVs (North Carolina)
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 60.8% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 34.65% EVs for the tailormade Republican. (The remaining 4.55% are North Carolina's toss-up territory.) And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 16 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +8.9%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia, yet even Arizona is changing very rapidly.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.6%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Wisconsin: D +4%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Iowa: D +3.0%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%


North Carolina: D +0.0%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Iowa, Arkansas & Pennsylvania (all leaning towards Hillary), the toss up state of North Carolina, plus Arizona, Georgia & Colorado (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 16 of 28 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 8 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 1 state (Colorado)
4. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
5. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of April 9.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 09, 2014, 08:30:22 pm
Eric -- you might as well recognize that the pollsters are no longer asking about Paul Ryan as a Presidential candidate. The Colorado poll involving Paul Ryan is very old and now likely irrelevant.

I think that Ryan is seeking power within the House either in leadership on a committee of his choosing or as Speaker of the House. Huckabee seems more relevant to pollsters now.  Rand Paul may excite the Libertarian culture in Colorado enough to make the state close but even he can't give the state to the GOP. 

PPP may release a poll on North Carolina this week; it will be polling Texas next week. 


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on April 10, 2014, 04:41:49 pm
Eric -- you might as well recognize that the pollsters are no longer asking about Paul Ryan as a Presidential candidate. The Colorado poll involving Paul Ryan is very old and now likely irrelevant.

I think that Ryan is seeking power within the House either in leadership on a committee of his choosing or as Speaker of the House. Huckabee seems more relevant to pollsters now.  Rand Paul may excite the Libertarian culture in Colorado enough to make the state close but even he can't give the state to the GOP.  

Last time Ryan was polled in Colorado was February 2 this year, only two months ago, so it's certainly too early to remove him completely. Qunnipiac has included him in their two most recent Colorado polls, while PPP has never included him even once in Colorado.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on April 10, 2014, 04:59:49 pm
PPP has just released their 7th North Carolina 2016 match-ups poll, including the 6th straight to include both Christie and Bush. Those are also the two candidates who makes by far the strongest race against Hillary in the state. Hillary has for the very first time opened a lead against all GOP candidates, including a very slim 0.33% lead over Christie. At second best we find Jeb Bush, trailing her by only 2.2% on average.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 109.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on March 20, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.0%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 13, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.33%
+2.4% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on April 10, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.2%
+3.7% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 215 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 65.35% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 34.65% EVs for the tailormade Republican. (The remaining 4.55% are North Carolina's toss-up territory.) And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 16 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +8.9%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia, yet even Arizona is changing very rapidly.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.6%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Wisconsin: D +4%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Iowa: D +3.0%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.3%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Iowa, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & North Carolina (all leaning towards Hillary), as well as Arizona, Georgia & Colorado (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 16 of 28 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 8 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 1 state (Colorado)
4. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
5. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of April 10.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: GaussLaw on April 10, 2014, 07:22:40 pm
I'm new here, so this question may sound dumb.

But when you say Christie is "favored" in so-and-so many states, does that mean he leads in the primary in those states or that he performs the best against Hillary in those states?


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on April 10, 2014, 07:43:56 pm
I'm new here, so this question may sound dumb.

But when you say Christie is "favored" in so-and-so many states, does that mean he leads in the primary in those states or that he performs the best against Hillary in those states?

The last one, that he performs better against Hillary in the state than the other Republican candidates where we have match-ups available. :)


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 10, 2014, 08:20:34 pm
PPP, NC

Quote
PPP continues to find that North Carolina is likely to maintain its new found swing state status in 2016 if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic candidate for President. Clinton leads all of her potential Republican opponents in the state by small margins- it's 45/44 over Jeb Bush, 46/44 over Chris Christie, 47/43 over Rand Paul, and 48/43 over Mike Huckabee. Huckabee is the first choice of Republican voters in the state- 22% say they'd like him as the nominee to 18% for Jeb Bush, 12% each for Chris Christie and Ted Cruz, 9% each for Rand Paul and Paul Ryan, 7% for Scott Walker, 5% for Marco Rubio, and 2% for Bobby Jindal. Huckabee leads based on his strength with 'very conservative' voters, while Bush does better with moderates.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/04/north-carolina-miscellany.html#more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

()

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more





Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 17, 2014, 11:54:42 am
PPP, Texas:

Paul- 50%
Clinton- 40%

Huckabee- 50%
Clinton- 42%

Bush- 50%
Clinton- 42%

Cruz- 50%
Clinton- 43%

Perry- 49%
Clinton- 44%

Christie- 44%
Clinton- 42%

Hillary would bring Texas closer than any Democrat in the 21st century. Safe R.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/04/ted-cruz-most-popular-in-texas.html

PPP will have polls for Wisconsin next week. It might show how well two potential favorite sons would do.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

()

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more





Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on April 17, 2014, 10:41:08 pm
PPP has released its 4th Texas poll on 2016, Mike Huckabee being included for the very first time in state polling there. Of the 7 GOP candidates who have been tested in Texas, Hillary right now just leads two of them; Rick Perry and Marco Rubio. On average, the 3 strongest GOP contenders in the state seem right now to be Huckabee (+8%), Rand Paul (+7%) and Jeb Bush (+6%). This means that Huckabee replaces Jeb Bush in Texas and that the Republican advantage there increases from +5% to +8%. Which is still, of course, just half as strong a number as Romney managed in 2012. By trumping Bush in the crucial/big state of Texas, Huckabee is now the 3rd best positioned candidate on the Republican side after (still overwhelming favourites) Christie and Bush.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 110.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on March 20, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.0%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 13, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.33%
+2.4% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on April 10, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.3%
+3.6% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.5% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 215 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 65.35% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 34.65% EVs for the tailormade Republican. (The remaining 4.55% are North Carolina's toss-up territory.) And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 16 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. It's almost shocking to see how much a switch from Obama to Hillary would mean for the states of Arkansas and Colorado. As of now, Hillary has had more than a 30% better swing in Arkansas than in Colorado, meaning that if current poll averages where to become the actual 2016 outcome, Hillary could actually perform up to 5.5% stronger in Arkansas than Colorado. However, they're not completely compatible as Paul Ryan currently polls best in Colorado, while Christie is ahead in Arkansas.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.5%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Wisconsin: D +4%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Iowa: D +3.0%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.3%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Iowa, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & North Carolina (all leaning towards Hillary), as well as Arizona, Georgia & Colorado (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 16 of 28 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Mike Huckabee in 2 states (Texas (!) & Louisiana (!))
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 1 state (Colorado)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of April 18.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 18, 2014, 12:07:13 am
There just aren't that many arguable swing states not now polled.

I would guess that having been Governor of Arkansas matter far more than does having been First Lady of the State, so I would guess that Mike Huckabee would win the state.  I see no cause to believe that Paul Ryan will run for President in 2016; he seems more interested in gaining power within the House of Representatives. So Colorado goes to Clinton.

Using green for unpolled states almost certain to go R and using orange for unpolled states almost certain to go D, and I get (pastel green and orange)

()

I have no idea on either Indiana or Missouri, and NE-02 would be in doubt.

It looks like a replay of 2008 except with Indiana and Missouri undecided.

 


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on April 18, 2014, 07:18:50 am
The new WomanTrend/the polling company's Iowa 2016 poll is the 8 such in the state, yet only the 2nd one to include Mike Huckabee. The previous GOP best man, Christie, remains unchanged at -3%, yet he has to accept a 2nd position in the state now that Huckabee's average has exceeded him. Huckabee has gone from -4% to his current -1.85% in Iowa. All other GOPers except these two are still far behind Hillary in the state.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 111.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on March 20, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: D +1.85%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.33%
+2.4% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on April 10, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.35%
+3.6% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.5% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 215 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 65.35% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 34.65% EVs for the tailormade Republican. (The remaining 4.55% are North Carolina's toss-up territory.) And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 15 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. It's almost shocking to see how much a switch from Obama to Hillary would mean for the states of Arkansas and Colorado. As of now, Hillary has had more than a 30% better swing in Arkansas than in Colorado, meaning that if current poll averages where to become the actual 2016 outcome, Hillary could actually perform up to 5.5% stronger in Arkansas than Colorado. However, they're not completely compatible as Paul Ryan currently polls best in Colorado, while Christie is ahead in Arkansas.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.5%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Wisconsin: D +4%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Arkansas: D +2%
Iowa: D +1.85%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.3%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Iowa, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & North Carolina (all leaning towards Hillary), as well as Arizona, Georgia & Colorado (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 15 of 28 states (for 179 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Florida, Arizona, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 72 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee in 3 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!) & Iowa (!) - for 52 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 1 state (Colorado - for 9 EVs)
4. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana - for 3 EVs)


Current update as of April 18.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 18, 2014, 09:19:13 am
The Washington Free Beacon is a very right-wing journal.  So beware.

Here is an interesting piece of polling. I had a desire to see how Scott Walker, Governor of neighboring Wisconsin (a state demographically similar to Iowa) would do in Iowa:

45.9% HILLARY CLINTON
40.4% SCOTT WALKER

He'd have his work cut out. As shown in 2000, a Republican nominee can win without Iowa,  but the state is close enough to the national average that Iowa has to be within the margin of error.

PPP will probably ask how Hillary Clinton does against Walker in Wisconsin.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Bevinevitable on April 18, 2014, 11:33:51 am
If the poll had asked about the presidential match ups before their push polling, I'd have no qualms with including it. But considering it came after questions such as this:

Quote
16.Do you agree or disagree that Braley’s statement about Grassley shows that he has a
higher regard for lawyers in Texas than farmers in Iowa?

Quote
Bruce Braley attempted to strengthen his farmer credentials by posting a picture of a
farm to his Facebook page. However, the picture actually showed an apple farm in England, and so the campaign removed the photo. Does this make you more likely or less likely to vote Bruce Braley for U.S. Senate?

Quote
Bruce Braley has apologized for his remarks. Do you think he apologized because he is
truly sorry, or because he is truly worried that this hurts his chances to win the U.S.
Senate election?

..it should probably be disregarded.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on April 18, 2014, 11:59:31 am
Bruce Braley doesn't have much to do with Hillary though. People aren't that stupid. Besides, this is the most ridiculous so-called "scandal" I've ever come across. There's nothing even slightly scandalous with his statements. It's a storm in a glass of water and not even that.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: Bevinevitable on April 18, 2014, 12:00:30 pm
Bruce Braley doesn't have much to do with Hillary though. People aren't that stupid. Besides, this is the most ridiculous so-called "scandal" I've ever come across. There's nothing even slightly scandalous with his statements. It's a storm in a glass of water and not even that.

It's just more likely to inspire negative feelings about Democrats overall. That's why reputable polling firms always include approvals/favorability/match ups before asking any additional questions.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 24, 2014, 09:02:19 am
Quinnipiac, Colorado:

Quote
U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky is the strongest candidate in Colorado in the 2016 presidential race, topping former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton 48 - 43 percent. There is a huge gender gap as men back the Republican Paul 55 - 35 percent while women go with the Democrat Clinton 50 - 40 percent. Independent voters back Paul 48 - 37 percent.

In other possible matchups:

    Clinton ties New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie 42 - 42 percent;
    Clinton leads former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush 45 - 40 percent;
    Clinton gets 45 percent to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's 44 percent.

Also relevant:
Quote
Colorado voters disapprove 59 - 38 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing.

That is far out of touch with the 2012 election in Colorado. Lower approval than in Louisiana?



http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2034


Possible caveats:

1. Quinnipiac may undercount the large Hispanic part of the Colorado electorate. I have seen that before.

2. Colorado has a very loud libertarian current in political discourse (much like California) but that has usually proved ineffective at election time since 2006.

But at those two, I am arguing the dynamics of the election before it happens.

Quinnipiac is good elsewhere and polls Colorado in good faith, so I can't dispute it.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

()

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more






Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 24, 2014, 09:36:12 pm
So why is Hillary doing so badly in Colorado with Quinnipiac?

Could it be that Q, which seems to be reasonable enough everywhere else, is badly off on Colorado? Maybe its polls undercount Hispanics? Nobody has that problem with Q in Florida, which it does poll often. It could be something else.


Q has a good model for a midterm election. It has Udall barely leading in a hot Senate race -- but it does have him leading. It also has President Obama with an approval rating in the high 30s, which looks much unlike the 2012 (and 2016) electorate.

But that model depresses the D vote, and using it for 2016 may be questionable.  So if you are involved heavily with politics as a narrative, which election are you looking at more closely  -- the November election this year or November 2016?

OK -- with a midterm electorate, Hillary Clinton probably loses Colorado.   


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 24, 2014, 09:43:00 pm
PPP, Wisconsin

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 50%
Paul Ryan ....................................................... 45%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 51%
Scott Walker ................................................... 44%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 50%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 39%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 50%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 39%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 50%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 38%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 49%
Chris Christie .................................................. 36%


Note that the two possible Favorite Sons (Scott Walker and Paul Ryan) fare badly in their home state. So much for the idea that Walker has developed a huge crossover vote in Wisconsin that can inspire Republicans to cast their support to him.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

()

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on April 24, 2014, 09:58:32 pm
Two more polls added to the lot yesterday. The one in Colorado (the 8th of the season) didn't really change all that much, since they didn't include Paul Ryan once more. If they keep excluding him from future Colorado polls, I will eventually remove him from the state altogether. Yet we're still 2 1/2 years away, so I'd say no reason to rush for now. Interestingly though, he's not the only one still ahead of Clinton in the state. Both Christie (+1.6%) & Rand Paul (+1.3%) are still ahead of her on average. The 4 remaining candidates are trailing: Rubio by -1.5%, Cruz by -3.2%, Huckabee by -4% and Jeb Bush worst at -6%.

Then we have the PPP poll of Wisconsin, which is "only" the 5th 2016 poll of the state. The state has deteriorated significantly for Republicans in general and for Jeb Bush in particular, who with this catastophical poll (being 11% down) loses his "lead" in the state to Wisconsinite Paul Ryan (who's coincidentially ahead in Colorado as well). This means that Hillary improves her Wisconsin lead from 4% to 5.1%. Bush is 2nd with -7.5%, followed by Christie at -8.1%, Scott Walker at -9.2% and Rand Paul at -9.9%. Huckabee, Rubio & Cruz are all down by horrific double digits (Cruz worst at -16.5%).

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 113.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: D +1.85%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.33%
+2.4% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on April 10, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.3%
+3.7% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()


Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 215 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 65.35% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 34.65% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 15 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. It's almost shocking to see how much a switch from Obama to Hillary would mean for the states of Arkansas and Colorado. As of now, Hillary has had more than a 30% better swing in Arkansas than in Colorado, meaning that if current poll averages where to become the actual 2016 outcome, Hillary could actually perform up to 5.5% stronger in Arkansas than Colorado. However, they're not completely compatible as Paul Ryan currently polls best in Colorado, while Christie is ahead in Arkansas.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.6%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Arkansas: D +2%
Iowa: D +1.85%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.3%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 15 of 28 states (for 179 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee in 3 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!) & Iowa (!) - for 52 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana - for 3 EVs)


Current update as of April 25.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 01, 2014, 11:33:28 am
Quinnipiac, Florida.


49 - 41 percent over Bush;
52 - 40 percent over Rubio;
55 - 37 percent over Paul;
52 - 34 percent over Christie;
56 - 36 percent over Ryan;
57 - 31 percent over Cruz;
53 - 35 percent over Huckabee

Devastating. If Q seemed to unduly exaggerate R chances in Colorado, it may have underestimated them by a similar amount in Florida based on polls released this week.

Republican nominees for President cannot now win without Florida.



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

()

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 01, 2014, 09:27:30 pm
Quote
PPP's newest Arkansas poll finds that the Clinton brand is still pretty strong in the state. Bill Clinton has a 55/37 favorability rating there, and Hillary Clinton leads all but one of the leading Republicans there in hypothetical 2016 match ups despite the state's recent Republican lurch. Clinton leads Jeb Bush 46/41, Rand Paul 48/42, and Chris Christie 47/38.

The one Republican Clinton trails is Mike Huckabee at 47/44.

- See more at: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/#sthash.wvtqh5EJ.dpuf

In case anyone was wondering whether the leads in polls that Hillary Clinton had in Arkansas last year were real -- we now have some corroboration.  This state could be trouble for Republicans of all kinds in 2016.

Republicans can't win the presidency without Arkansas, either, and they are not going to win the Presidency while winning Arkansas by only 3%.  The Favorite Son effect obviously is stronger with an ex-Governor than with an ex-First Lady of the State... 



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

()

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on May 05, 2014, 08:42:03 am
Two new polls out last week from Arkansas and Florida. The Florida poll just reaffirms what we've seen in other Florida polls, that Hillary leads all Republicans there with at least 7-8%. The Arkansas poll however changes the narrative in the state, as Mike Huckabee is included there for the fist time. Thus, Arkansas goes from lean Democratic to lean Republican. Overall, Huckabee makes the state tilt 5% more towards the Republican side.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 115.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.4%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: D +1.85%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.33%
+2.4% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on April 10, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.5%
+3.4% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.3% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()


Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 209 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 63.5% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 36.5% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 14 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Florida: D +6.5%
13. Alaska: D +6.5%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. It's almost shocking to see how much a switch from Obama to Hillary would mean for the states of Arkansas and Colorado. As of now, Hillary has had more than a 30% better swing in Arkansas than in Colorado, meaning that if current poll averages where to become the actual 2016 outcome, Hillary could actually perform up to 5.5% stronger in Arkansas than Colorado. However, they're not completely compatible as Paul Ryan currently polls best in Colorado, while Christie is ahead in Arkansas.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.4%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.3%

Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Iowa: D +1.85%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.3%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 14 of 28 states (for 173 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee in 4 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Arkansas & Iowa (!) - for 58 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana - for 3 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of May 5.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on May 11, 2014, 05:58:02 pm
The new Dartmouth/Rockefeller Center poll of New Hampshire is the first ever 2016 poll of that state to include Mike Huckabee in the mix up. And boy does he do well, only trailing Hillary by 2.1%. However, one should be a bit cautious with the numbers, as except for the Jeb Bush match-up, the 3 other match-up numbers all seem a bit inflated for the Republican candidate compared to previous polls of the state. Nevertheless, this means that Huckabee has managed to steal the New Hampshire crown from Christie for now.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 116.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.4%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: D +1.85%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.33%
+2.4% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on April 10, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.5%
+3.4% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.2% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()


Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 209 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 63.5% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 36.5% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Florida: D +6.5%
13. Alaska: D +6.5%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. It's almost shocking to see how much a switch from Obama to Hillary would mean for the states of Arkansas and Colorado. As of now, Hillary has had more than a 30% better swing in Arkansas than in Colorado, meaning that if current poll averages where to become the actual 2016 outcome, Hillary could actually perform up to 5.5% stronger in Arkansas than Colorado. However, they're not completely compatible as Paul Ryan currently polls best in Colorado, while Christie is ahead in Arkansas.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.4%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.2%

Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
Iowa: D +1.85%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.3%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 28 states (for 169 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Arkansas, Iowa (!) & New Hampshire (!) - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana - for 3 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of May 12.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 11, 2014, 09:08:11 pm
I'm not using the Dartmouth poll -- too many undecided. Do you remember the polls from the summer of 2008 that showed Barack Obama up 43-41 or so in North and South Dakota? Of course. Obama would top out around 46% in those states.   

New Hampshire could easily be a mirror image of such.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 12, 2014, 09:17:59 am
There just aren't that many arguable swing states not now polled.

I would guess that having been Governor of Arkansas matter far more than does having been First Lady of the State, so I would guess that Mike Huckabee would win the state.  I see no cause to believe that Paul Ryan will run for President in 2016; he seems more interested in gaining power within the House of Representatives. So Colorado goes to Clinton.

Using green for unpolled states almost certain to go R and using orange for unpolled states almost certain to go D, and I get (pastel green and orange)

()

I have no idea on either Indiana or Missouri, and NE-02 would be in doubt.

It looks like a replay of 2008 except with Indiana and Missouri undecided.

 

Even this understates Democratic chances. The potential nominee who wins Arkansas loses Arizona, and vice-versa. A Republican nominee for President can afford to lose neither state.

Arkansas looks like less of a loss than Arizona, but although Arkansas has five fewer electoral votes, Arkansas has plenty of political analogues. If you look at the five states that Bill Clinton won twice and Obama lost by huge margins twice (AR, KY, LA, TN, WV), you notice 38 electoral votes -- as much as Texas. These states are demographically similar to Arkansas.

To some extent that neglects Georgia and Missouri, which could also be GOP disasters.   


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on May 13, 2014, 12:32:15 am
To find out which state would be the most likely tipping point state in 2016 based on all the data gathered so far, I've worked out this list of states going from likely Democratic to likely Republican (assuming that the non-polled states stay the same as in 2012):

1. D.C. - 3 EVs (still not polled)
2. Hawaii - 7 EVs (accumulated) (still not polled)
3. Vermont - 10 EVs (still not polled)
4. New York - 39 EVs
5. Rhode Island - 43 EVs (still not polled)
6. Maryland - 53 EVs (still not polled)
7. Massachusetts - 64 EVs (still not polled)
8. California - 119 EVs (still not polled)
9. Delaware - 122 EVs (still not polled)
10. Connecticut - 129 EVs (still not polled)
11. Illinois - 149 EVs (still not polled)
12. Washington - 161 EVs (still not polled)
13. New Mexico - 166 EVs
14. Oregon - 173 EVs (still not polled)
15. New Jersey - 187 EVs
16. Maine - 191 EVs
17. Florida - 220 EVs
18. Nevada - 226 EVs (still not polled for 2016!)
19. Minnesota - 236 EVs
20. Ohio - 254 EVs
21. Wisconsin - 264 EVs

22. Michigan - 280 EVs - currently the most likely tipping point state

23. Virginia - 293 EVs
24. New Hampshire - 297 EVs
25. Iowa - 303 EVs
26. Pennsylvania - 323 EVs
27. North Carolina - 338 EVs

---current red/blue divide---

28. Arizona - 349 EVs
29. Georgia - 365 EVs
30. Arkansas - 371 EVs
31. Colorado - 380 EVs
32. Kentucky - 388 EVs
33. Louisiana - 396 EVs
34. South Carolina - 405 EVs
35. Alaska - 408 EVs
36. Texas - 446 EVs
37. Mississippi - 452 EVs
38. Kansas - 458 EVs
39. Missouri - 468 EVs (still not polled)
40. Indiana - 479 EVs (still not polled)
41. Montana - 482 EVs
42. West Virginia - 487 EVs
43. South Dakota - 490 EVs (still not polled)
44. North Dakota - 493 EVs (still not polled)
45. Tennessee - 504 EVs (still not polled)
46. Nebraska - 509 EVs (still not polled)
47. Alabama - 518 EVs (still not polled)
48. Wyoming - 521 EVs
49. Idaho - 525 EVs (still not polled)
50. Oklahoma - 532 EVs (still not polled)
51. Utah - 538 EVs (still not polled)

Michigan would be the tipping point state even if it happened to surpass Wisconsin on this list. So Michigan will for sure be a crucial battleground state in 2016, even if it will be far from the only one. Other big states +/- 3-5% off Michigan's current average of Hillary +4.8% should be considered crucial as well, including Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

If the current poll numbers are about right, it could mean that the Democratic advantage of 2012 could reverse into a Republican advantage in the Electoral College in 2016, which could turn out to be about a -2.4% disadvantage for Hillary. Compare that to Obama's Electoral College advantage in 2012, which was about +1.5%. The reason for this is obvious; most battleground states - with the clear exceptions of Florida, Ohio and North Carolina - have either not moved much at all, or have moved in a Republican direction for now. That's a big contrast to most Republican states, which have on average moved a lot towards Hillary.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 14, 2014, 12:24:30 pm
Quote
North Carolina Survey Results (PPP)

Q5
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?

45% Hillary Clinton
42% Jeb Bush
13% Not sure

Q6
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?

44% Hillary Clinton
40% Chris Christie
16% Not sure

Q7
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?

47% Hillary Clinton
43% Mike Huckabee
10% Not sure

Q8 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?

45% Hillary Clinton
44% Rand Paul
11% Not sure


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NC_514.pdf

Mostly within the margin of error, and all likely wins for Hillary Clinton. That said, any Republican nominee for President would be in trouble if he were winning North Carolina by less than the margin of error.




Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

()

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


[/quote]


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 14, 2014, 02:05:41 pm
PPP, Alaska:

Quote
Alaskans don't have much to say for a potential Sarah Palin Presidential bid in 2016. Only 19% think she should seek the White House, compared to 74% who think she should sit it out. Even among Republicans just 24% want her to run while 70% believe she should take a pass. Palin is actually so weak that she would trail Hillary Clinton 44/41 in a hypothetical contest, even as the rest of the Republican field would lead Clinton. Mike Huckabee has a 43/42 advantage over her, Chris Christie is up 44/41, Rand Paul is up 46/40, and Jeb Bush is up 47/41.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/05/alaska-miscellany.html#more

Alaska could be close in 2016.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


()


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()  

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

()

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul


()

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on May 14, 2014, 04:02:10 pm
PPP has released two more 2016 smatch-up polls today. The Alaska poll marks the 4th PPP poll of the state, while the North Carolina poll is the 8th 2016 poll in that state, all executed by PPP as well. Jeb Bush' lead in Alaska decreases slightly from +7.5% to +7%, with Rand Paul just behind him at +6%. Hillary's lead over Chris Christie in North Carolina inches slightly up from +0.3% to her current +0.9%. Bush does second best in the state among GOPers, only trailing her by 2.3%. The rest of the field (Huckabee, Rand Paul, Cruz & Rubio) trails her by more than 5%.

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 118.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.4%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: D +1.85%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.9%
+2.9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.5%
+3.4% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.3% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()


Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 209 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 63.5% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 36.5% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Florida: D +6.5%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. It's almost shocking to see how much a switch from Obama to Hillary would mean for the states of Arkansas and Colorado. As of now, Hillary has had more than a 30% better swing in Arkansas than in Colorado, meaning that if current poll averages where to become the actual 2016 outcome, Hillary could actually perform up to 5.5% stronger in Arkansas than Colorado. However, they're not completely compatible as Paul Ryan currently polls best in Colorado, while Christie is ahead in Arkansas.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.4%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.3%

Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
Iowa: D +1.85%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.9%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 28 states (for 169 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Arkansas, Iowa (!) & New Hampshire (!) - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana - for 3 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of May 14.


Title: Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread
Post by: eric82oslo on May 15, 2014, 08:14:17 am
Today we've gotten the 5th 2016 poll of Ohio, including the 4th from Quinnipiac alone. According to the poll, Hillary is leading all 8 GOP opponents there with margins ranging between 5% and 14%. Christie is still the leader of the GOP pack, but with his deteriorating numbers, he slumps further down the road, now trailing Hillary by 6.2%, compared to his previous -5.75%. Second best Republican is Huckabee (polled in Ohio for the 1st time) who's trailing by 8%. Rand Paul, Ryan & Rubio all trail by 10% and their favourite son John Kasich by 11.5%, while Bush & Cruz do particularily badly, trailing by 12.75% & 15.3% respectively.

On May 18, I've added the latest Kentucky poll from Survey USA as well. It didn't change much, as Rand Paul was the only one matched, and he's still just 1.25% ahead of Hillary. Which means that Jeb Bush is still the leader of the GOP pack in the state, leading Hillary with 4%. Christie is also leading her by 4%, however his floor is lower than Jeb Bush's (44% against 46%). Which means that the favourite son Paul is just the 3rd most popular GOPer in the state of the 4 tried & tested (Marco Rubio does the worst).


The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 120.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.4%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: D +1.85%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.9%
+2.9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement
(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.5%
+3.4% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.3% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

()


Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 209 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 63.5% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 36.5% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

()


The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Florida: D +6.5%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.4%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.3%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
Iowa: D +1.85%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.9%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on