Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Famous Mortimer on March 05, 2013, 05:49:13 PM



Title: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 05, 2013, 05:49:13 PM
Fun times.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 05, 2013, 05:50:29 PM
As I said in the other thread, Capriles would be wise to stay out. Sympathy tsunami will make it impossible in this round.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Paleobrazilian on March 05, 2013, 05:52:47 PM
Chavez party has many different factions that may split now that their leader has passed. Maduro represents just one of those factions. If an ugly split happens, the opposition has a shot.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 05, 2013, 05:56:28 PM
Will Cabello run? Might be difficult since Chavez publicly anointed Maduro.. but who knows? The military will probably want their say too- and they're also divided.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 05, 2013, 06:19:44 PM
Capriles also wishing Chavez's family well, urging calm.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 05, 2013, 06:47:04 PM
So who's acting president? Cabello or Maduro?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin on March 05, 2013, 07:49:21 PM
So who's acting president? Cabello or Maduro?

Cabello, until the election, from everything I can find on current Venezuelan succession law. The law had already been bent (with the active co-operation of Cabello and the Supreme Court) to allow Chavez to skip his inauguration, so I suppose another twist to put Maduro in charge isn't out of the question, presuming Cabello would support it. I don't see why he would though, assuming the two are in fact rivals.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 05, 2013, 08:39:16 PM
Now they're saying Maduro will take the reins and an election will be held in 30 days. Who runs on either side is the question.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 05, 2013, 09:14:51 PM
Maduro's the government candidate.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on March 05, 2013, 09:40:44 PM
As I said in the other thread, Capriles would be wise to stay out. Sympathy tsunami will make it impossible in this round.

They have to do it now - they might not have another chance. Chavez was charismatic and personally popular. Maduro has a charisma of a school bus driver. Under normal circumstances, he won't have much chance in even an unequal election, with government pulling the stops the way it did under Chavez. So, he  will be sorely tempted to not have even such an election. And if he does not yield to temptation, those around him will - with him or not. They can't sit out this election.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Electionhin
Post by: rob in cal on March 05, 2013, 10:51:41 PM
Also, doesn't the presidential law now only have one round, no runoff?  This would encourage only one Chavez loyalist candidate I would think.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 05, 2013, 11:00:49 PM
Seems like a lose-lose situation. They know what happened with the boycott a few years ago but the uneven playing field and sympathy make a victory unlikely.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Vosem on March 05, 2013, 11:02:58 PM
I'm not sure Chavez opponents have much sympathy for his death, RB. Capriles himself obviously does, but I don't know if that goes for the average anti-Bolivarian.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 05, 2013, 11:21:32 PM
The CW of Venezelists (?) is that 1/3 love him, 1/3 hate him and 1/3 are in the middle. Preaching to the choir a la 2006 (37%) won't cut it- you have to win a chunk of undecideds and yes, Chavistas for the keys to Miraflores. That's why Capriles swore up and down to keep the popular parts of Chavismo like the missions and various social programs, plus it helps to have a concrete record of his own in Miranda. The Chavistas would love nothing more than ammo to paint Capriles and the oppositon as a bridge to the past, as Dole might say.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 06, 2013, 06:18:29 PM
Reuters reporting that Capriles has agreed to run.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on March 07, 2013, 01:53:38 AM
This will likely end up like the 2009 Carinthia election, after the death of Jörg Haider.

I expect a big Hugo Chavez remembrance vote ...


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: minionofmidas on March 09, 2013, 06:42:40 AM
I hail our new leader, Nicolas Maduro.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on March 09, 2013, 07:32:03 AM

Even before Chavez's death, Maduro led Capriles by 14 points in a poll by Hinterlaces.

So, no big expectations here.

(PS: Hinterlaces predicted Chavez by 16 last year, when he won by 11)


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RodPresident on March 09, 2013, 12:18:21 PM
Maduro nominated Arreaza (Chavez son-in-law) for Vice President. Maybe he's planning to be a single-term president.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 09, 2013, 04:23:16 PM
NYT reporting that the electoral council has set April 14 as the date. I don't think Maduro and Capriles hit the trail, at least officially, till the mourning period ends next Friday. Plus Capriles has to temporarily leave the governorship again.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 09, 2013, 08:49:50 PM
Capriles will announce his decision tomorrow. Some speculation that someone else does it if he says no, say Caracas Mayor Antonio Ledesma or Gov. Henry Falcone of Lara. Depends if MUD wants to seriously compete or not, since Capriles is the only one who can do that.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 10, 2013, 12:02:19 AM
I'd say Capriles should skip this one. In 2018 memories of Chavez will have faded and with a pretty uncharismatic candidate like Maduro he would have a fair chance to win.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 10, 2013, 08:22:44 AM
The hesitation does make me wonder, but would they have offered it to him if they thought he'd decline? Regardless of what happens they need to run a decent candidate and no one know anything about the others.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on March 10, 2013, 10:15:03 AM
I'd say Capriles should skip this one. In 2018 memories of Chavez will have faded and with a pretty uncharismatic candidate like Maduro he would have a fair chance to win.

Assuming there is an election in 2018 and it is not blatantly falsified. Precisely because Maduro is uncharismatic.

No, they HAVE TO run and win NOW.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 10, 2013, 10:36:51 AM
How can he win with the playing field being so pro-govt plus the sympathy factor?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2013, 01:02:55 PM
No, they HAVE TO run and win NOW.

Capriles CAN win this.

Assuming Maduro throws a few kids into the Orinoco river and Capriles is nearby, jumps in and rescues all of them.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 10, 2013, 01:51:17 PM
He's in. :D

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/10/us-venezuela-election-capriles-idUSBRE9290E220130310


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 10, 2013, 07:54:56 PM
Confirmed. This will be a nasty, brutish and short campaign.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-21737742#TWEET654201


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 10, 2013, 08:15:32 PM
Maduro will have to deal with the security apparatus too, which isn't exactly monolithic.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/11/world/americas/chavez-heir-faces-challenge-in-relations-with-the-military.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 10, 2013, 08:25:44 PM
This will be a nasty, brutish and short campaign.

...which is exactly what Venezuela doesn't need now. With Chavez' death, one would have hoped tensions would start to appease...


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 10, 2013, 08:32:25 PM
Capriles has already accused Maduro of "using Chavez's corpse as a campaign prop." High mark of positivity? Still firmly grounded in political reality, said the odds are so stacked against him that it'll be like being run through a meat grinder. Given how short time is he'll have to stick to the swingiest areas.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/henrique-capriles-says-he-will-run-again-as-venezuelan-opposition-candidate/2013/03/10/d58609e6-89e6-11e2-a88e-461ffa2e34e4_story.html


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 10, 2013, 09:01:56 PM
Maduro hits back, calling Capriles a fascist and hatemonger.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 10, 2013, 09:02:33 PM
Sigh...


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 10, 2013, 09:16:04 PM
I'm following the opposition blogger CaracasChronicles on Twitter. According to him, official exit studies showed 30% of Chavez voters were true believers. 25% are softer- they liked and admired him a lot, but didn't venerate him. And Capriles' raw aggression was deliberate, partly because he concluded that hope n'change didn't work last time.

http://caracaschronicles.com/2013/03/10/liveblogging-hcrs-annoucement/#more-25439


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 10, 2013, 09:33:49 PM
because he concluded that hope n'change didn't work last time.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. It did work, but simply wasn't enough at the time, considering Chavez' popularity. Capriles still did better than all his predecessors who insisted on demonizing Chavez.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 10, 2013, 09:47:28 PM
He also talked a lot about how he's doing it for his supporters, most of whom are poor. Maduro is going to ram through a bill putting Chavez's name in the National Pantheon, which until now required a 25-year wait. Target date: April 14. CC suggests Capriles should support it, which is common sense. That way soft Chavistas won't get offended.

As for negative campaigning... read the blog, that's what his supporters want. I do agree that he should be more positive than negative, as does CC.

Here's the speech, for the Spanish-speakers here. :P FTR he actually does speak fluent English, but for obvious reasons never shows it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g00yV1TAo-g


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 10, 2013, 10:06:45 PM
The military has openly said that they will support Maduro and help in his campaign.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 11, 2013, 09:03:57 PM
The last independent TV station, Globovision, has finally folded under government pressure and will be bought by a pro-government consortium. Sale will take effect post-election.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323826704578354811280619062.html


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 12, 2013, 08:15:24 AM
Capriles calls out Maduro for gay-baiting, "homophobia is fascism."

http://www.tubechop.com/watch/1015228


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 12, 2013, 08:18:35 AM
I find the now or later debate in this thread bizarre. Why not try both times?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 12, 2013, 08:24:19 AM
Moot now, he jumped in with both feet. So long as he does well, keeps the governorship and remains popular things should be fine. Lula lost 3 in a row before winning.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Lurker on March 17, 2013, 06:13:18 PM
Maduro now claims that the CIA plans to assasinate Capriles - http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/17/us-venezuela-election-idUSBRE92G0AR20130317 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/17/us-venezuela-election-idUSBRE92G0AR20130317)http://

The man is sounding more paranoid every  minute, wonder how his bizarre claims will affect the election. (though in fairness, the Chavistas have some reason to be paranoid :P)


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 17, 2013, 06:31:02 PM
What the heck? Why would the CIA assassinate Capriles? ??? And why would Maduro warn about that? ???


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on March 17, 2013, 07:56:19 PM
No, they HAVE TO run and win NOW.

Capriles CAN win this.

Assuming Maduro throws a few kids into the Orinoco river and Capriles is nearby, jumps in and rescues all of them.

At least the former part isn't too far-fetched.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 19, 2013, 07:28:05 AM
I know Venezuelan polls are worthless, but this one says Maduro leads by 15. Sounds plausible.

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/7CF1H0qx7p42gmCYFJCVAJ/Venezuelas-Nicolas-Maduro-has-poll-lead-over-Henrique-Capri.html

Capriles vows to halt the Cuban petrosubsidy.

http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/Capriles-apoya-estudiantes_0_155986451.html


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Zuza on March 19, 2013, 06:07:04 PM
Why would the CIA assassinate Capriles? ???

Maybe Maduro thinks that USA is going to blame him and other Chavists for Capriles' assisination (and, of course, to disrupt election and to destabilize situation in Venezuela, but this aims can be achieved by Maduro's assassination too)?

And why would Maduro warn about that? ???

To show how fair and honest he is even with a bitter rival?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 19, 2013, 06:14:03 PM
That's hilarious... but actually not unbelievable, considering the chavists' tendency for silly statements of all sorts.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Zanas on March 25, 2013, 03:01:40 PM
Also, I heard there had been lots of talk about Chavez dying of some kind of poisoning that induced his cancer... Are the chavist side still mentioning it ? Using it ?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 02, 2013, 07:29:26 AM
Maduro now has a lead of between 11% and 35%:

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_presidenciales_de_Venezuela_de_2013#Encuestas_de_opini.C3.B3n

Most polls have him ahead by about 20.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 02, 2013, 07:39:37 AM
In other news, most recent surveys show that voters expect Maduro to win (more than 60% of voters think so, compared with 25-35% who say Capriles will win).

Also, what's more important:

The polls all say that voters approve of the Chavez-era and of his leadership, with support levels between 75 and 90% !!!

Turnout will probably be huge as well in 2 weeks.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 03, 2013, 03:08:57 AM
Chavez comes to bless Maduro in the form of ‘little bird’

()

The deceased Venezuelan commandante, Hugo Chavez has allegedly come back from the dead disguised as a “little bird” to give his blessing to acting President Nicholas Maduro.

In the run-up to presidential elections slated for April 14, Chavez’s successor confessed he had been approached by the spirit of the legendary freedom fighter during a morning prayer.

During the speech at the opening rally of his campaign in Chavez's native state of Barinas, Nicholas Maduro told a crowd of onlookers that, as he was praying in solitude in a small chapel, a little bird flew whistling in, circled three times over his head and perched on a ceiling beam.

“I whistled to it in response,” Mr. Maduro told the stunned crowd, “the bird gave me a weird look, whistled again, flew around me and vanished.”

Maduro confessed it was then that he felt the spirit of the late Chavez. “I felt him there as though he were giving me a blessing, saying: ‘Today the battle begins. Onwards to victory. You have our blessing!”

Nicholas Maduro has several times mentioned spiritual presence of Hugo Chavez after the death of beloved Venezuelan leader on March 5. At Chavez’s state funeral, the party chief said that his soul was so huge that the body could not hold it and now his soul is hovering around the world, ever expanding and is filling us all with love and grace.”

The acting president has also called Venezuela’s current leadership “Chavez’s apostles.” After Jorge Mario Bergoglio was elected the Catholic Pope following Chavez’s death, Maduro claimed that someone had assured Christ that “South America's time has come”. He also said that since Chavez was up in heaven he probably had some influence there.

A Venezuelan TV channel has released a video clip about Maduro’s meeting with the Chavez bird. The heaven in the video looks remarkably like a Venezuelan savanna in Commandante’s native rural state of Barinas.

http://english.ruvr.ru/2013_04_03/Chavez-comes-to-bless-Maduro-in-the-form-of-little-bird-501

...

LOL


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Velasco on April 03, 2013, 04:43:56 AM
Chávez might start to work wonders very soon. Pope Francis have got no alternative, he must make Hugo saint now. Bergoglio owes him his own victory in the Papal Conclave, as Maduro said, so it's an act of justice. Onwards the altars, Comandante!


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Sec. of State Superique on April 05, 2013, 08:54:40 PM
I can see a close elections being draw! 51%-49%, you decide who wins!


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 08, 2013, 02:21:55 AM
Capriles pulls ahead by 5 - in the latest poll by an Argentinian pollster:

http://www.abc.es/internacional/20130407/abci-capriles-maduro-sondeo-201304070052.html

Probably toss that poll.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 08, 2013, 02:27:09 AM
Their tracking poll looks like this:

()

But: There have been numerous polls showing Capriles ahead of Chavez too ahead of last years election, sometimes ahead by more than 20 and then Chavez won by 11.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 08, 2013, 02:31:31 AM
Yeah, Venezuelan polls seem utterly worthless.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 08, 2013, 02:34:39 AM
Yeah, Venezuelan polls seem utterly worthless.

They are all over the place and probably driven by partisan interests as well.

Those polling companies that have opposition leadership probably show Capriles ahead, and those with pro-Chavez leadership have Maduro ahead.

Then there's Hinterlaces which got the Chavez-Capriles margin mostly correct. They have Maduro ahead by 15-20 right now.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Famous Mortimer on April 08, 2013, 03:43:57 AM
Someone needs to send Dean Chambers to Venezuela.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Zanas on April 08, 2013, 08:44:31 AM
The problem is the more there are polls that show Capriles ahead, even if they are opposition-owned, the more the establishment in place will be inclined to rig the election. Fear is a powerful pulsion... I hope this goes well, in one way or the other. Venezuela doesn't need a civil war right now. Or ever...


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on April 08, 2013, 01:30:23 PM
“I whistled to it in response,” Mr. Maduro told the stunned crowd, “the bird gave me a weird look, whistled again, flew around me and vanished.”


at least that part's believable.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 13, 2013, 10:41:59 AM
Tomorrow is the election !

Any predictions ?

Mine:

54% Maduro
44% Capriles
  2% Other

Turnout: 78% (-3%)


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 13, 2013, 10:44:32 AM
Maduro 53
Capriles 45
Other 2

If Capriles gap to single digits, then all the better. I doubt he gets closer than 5.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 13, 2013, 10:49:54 AM
Maduro 56%
Capriles 42%


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: politicus on April 13, 2013, 11:03:41 AM
Maduro 54,5-55%
Capriles 43-43,5%
Other 1,5-2%


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 13, 2013, 11:19:56 AM
Pardon my ignorance but is it an election to fill the term Chavez was elected for or the winner will have the entire new term?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 13, 2013, 11:29:25 AM
Pardon my ignorance but is it an election to fill the term Chavez was elected for or the winner will have the entire new term?

I don't get your question. The winner will serve the entire term, that is till January 2019.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on April 13, 2013, 11:36:13 AM
Maduro-54%
Capriles-45%
Others-1%


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 13, 2013, 01:32:23 PM
Pardon my ignorance but is it an election to fill the term Chavez was elected for
No, its for a full term.

Thanks :)


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 14, 2013, 12:51:57 AM

BBC says otherwise:

Quote
The winner is due to be sworn in on 19 April and serve until January 2019, to complete the six-year term that Mr Chavez would have begun in January.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-22140143


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 14, 2013, 12:56:09 AM
Maduro and his bird called "Hugo":

()


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 14, 2013, 11:33:43 AM
Turnout seems to be much lower this time, but voting is very orderly and without problems says this report (remember that turnout last year was very high at 81%, so probably 70% today):

Quote
Voting light, orderly in early hours of Venezuelan election

CARACAS, Venezuela — Voting appeared relatively light and lines moved smoothly in the early hours of Venezuela’s presidential election, marking a contrast from the hours-long wait for voting in Hugo Chavez’s last election in October, which saw record turnout.

On a picture-perfect spring day in the capital, Caracas, voters moved quickly through polling places, where they were choosing between Chavez’s hand-picked successor, Nicolas Maduro, and his more conservative challenger, Henrique Capriles. Opinion polls showed Maduro leading heading into the election, but Capriles closing the gap.

Tibisay Lucena, president of the National Electoral Council, said at a news conference Sunday mornng that so far voter turnout has been lighter than in past elections.

That's also what Pablo Garcia, an economics instructor at the Central University of Venezuela, said he found. Garcia said he only waited a minute or two to vote Sunday in the South San Agustin barrio, a poor neighborhood in south Caracas. In October, he said, he waited five hours.

“It was much more fluid this time, with much less paperwork and confusion,” he said. He credited elections officials with breaking up a single line that led into the polls last fall. “Now there are many lines and not just one,” he said.

Garcia said he voted for Capriles. But his neighborhood is considered a Maduro stronghold, composed largely of the poor voters who were Chavez’s greatest supporters. Jose Ramon Gamero, a traveling fabric salesman, voted at the same polling place, and cast his ballot for Maduro. “We have to continue the revolutionary process, which has benefited so many people, especially the poor,” he said. "Capriles would be a step backward,” Gamero said, “and we don’t want to go there.”

Angela Orellana, a physician, voted in the more affluent neighborhood of Acacias close to Fort Tiuna, where Chavez’ body lay in repose for a week after he died and where tens of thousands of Venezuelans went to pay homage.  Orellana said voting this time was “rapidisimo” -- extremely fast.

“No problems like the ones I’ve had in the past with eternal waiting,” she said. Her choice: Capriles, because “we have to do away with this government of inefficiency, abuses and corruption, and Capriles can show us the way.”

http://www.latimes.com/news/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-voting-early-hours-venezuela-20130414,0,5265749.story


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Bacon King on April 14, 2013, 12:52:45 PM
Calling a surprise victory for Capriles.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 14, 2013, 01:37:25 PM
Demobilization on the Chavez side due to not having the Dear Leader anymore, or general demobilization because the result is already obvious?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 02:15:06 PM
Demobilization on the Chavez side due to not having the Dear Leader anymore, or general demobilization because the result is already obvious?

More likely the other way around: demoralization on the opposition side. The government has the machine, the opposition, unfortunately, doesn't.



Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Zuza on April 14, 2013, 04:19:39 PM

55% Maduro
44% Capriles
1% others


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Bacon King on April 14, 2013, 07:29:36 PM
results ETA: 1 hour


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 07:34:22 PM
Opposition saying weird stuff on Twitter like "we know what you know" (H/T CaracasChronicles) but I'm still predicting a single digit Maduro win.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: jaichind on April 14, 2013, 07:44:26 PM
Capriles warns of plan to alter Venezuela vote results
April 15 (AFP) -- Venezuela's opposition candidate Henrique Capriles on Sunday warned there was a plan to alter the results in the special election to succeed late president Hugo Chavez.
"We alert the country and the world of the intention to change the choice expressed by the people," Capriles wrote on Twitter after polls began to close in his race against acting President Nicolas Maduro.
Capriles, who lost to Chavez by 11 points in the October presidential election, called on National Electoral Council president Tibisay Lucena to close all polling stations, saying there were attempts to let people vote in places that had already closed.
Vice President Jorge Arreaza swiftly condemned Capriles, telling him on state-run television to "be very careful."
"This is unheard of. Hopefully they hacked Capriles' Twitter account like President Nicolas Maduro was hacked," he said after the account of Chavez's political heir was taken over by hackers.
After voting in the afternoon, Capriles said he wanted a "true democracy" in Venezuela and accused the government of pressuring civil servants to vote for Maduro.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 08:03:18 PM
Opposition quick count says it's razor-thin, will be a very long night.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 08:13:32 PM
This is going to be very close. However, when it is so close, the government should be able to massage it enough, no matter what. Unless, of course, they are even more incompetent than I expect them to be.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 08:15:27 PM
It depends what happens. Chavez sounded his inner circle and the military out before acknowledging his temporary defeat in 2007, I don't know what would happen here. Maduro is at best primus inter pares in Chavezland.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Bacon King on April 14, 2013, 08:31:59 PM
This is apparently the opposition's official vote count:

Capriles 7.875.846
Maduro 6.443.874


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 08:34:07 PM
This is apparently the opposition's official vote count:

Capriles 7.875.846
Maduro 6.443.874

where from?



Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 08:34:55 PM
Turnout's down, but that looks like 5-7 points to me. Too wide for mere massaging. BTW, the winner is apparently supposed to take the oath in 3 days.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 08:35:20 PM
This is apparently the opposition's official vote count:

Capriles 7.875.846
Maduro 6.443.874

where from?



Twitter or CaracasChronicles, I'm guessing.

Also: There are pix on Twitter of uniformed National Guard carrying ballot boxes... I think we can assume they aren't being secured. At least not secured in our sense of the term.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 08:37:40 PM
92% counted. Gulp.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 08:43:09 PM
I hate this way of doing it. They should be publishing the results precinct by precinct as they come.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 08:44:57 PM
They do, but not for public consumption. Gotta know where to add and subtract.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 08:48:43 PM
They do, but not for public consumption. Gotta know where to add and subtract.

CNE?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 08:50:21 PM
In any case, this is not how this should be done.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 08:52:16 PM
Twitter saying that each man has won 4 or 5 states. Caprilesgagnado trending as well. Predictions that Capriles will win.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Bacon King on April 14, 2013, 08:59:34 PM
This is apparently the opposition's official vote count:

Capriles 7.875.846
Maduro 6.443.874

where from?



Twitter, came from some sort of opposition figure who's been (probably illegally?) posting results by region as they come in (I assume either the opposition gets access to CNE's count or it's from their own electoral monitors who are, like last time, at every precinct in the country).


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 14, 2013, 09:00:29 PM
Wow, I wasn't hoping for it to be so close. Let's hope the chavist clique doesn't manage to rig this.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 09:03:57 PM
Wow, I wasn't hoping for it to be so close. Let's hope the chavist clique doesn't manage to rig this.

I'm seeing a 51.2-46.6 number thrown around a lot. Lots of people claiming Capriles has won and silence from the Maduro camp... but as I said, will believe it only if officially confirmed.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Bacon King on April 14, 2013, 09:07:15 PM
For the record, CNE officially has to wait until there's an "irreversible trend" in the results before they're publicly released. The fact that they've waited this long and overshot their own time estimates so far either means that:

A) it's extremely close, or
B) Capriles has a lead and they don't know what to do

(or, I guess, C, maybe they just suddenly started to suck at counting votes efficiently since the last election)


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 14, 2013, 09:09:36 PM
Option B) would not surprise me at all... But of course it could really be that close.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 09:09:47 PM
They'll be long meetings in Miraflores with all the phone lines burning up. Maduro said publicly he'd accept the result, but obviously his word means nothing and he isn't in full control of ChavezWorld. Chavez consulted everyone in 2007 before acknowledging defeat, not till late at night IIRC.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 09:10:09 PM
Remember: last time it took them till about 10 PM. It is 9:40 in Caracas now.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 09:10:59 PM
For the record, CNE officially has to wait until there's an "irreversible trend" in the results before they're publicly released. The fact that they've waited this long and overshot their own time estimates so far either means that:

A) it's extremely close, or
B) Capriles has a lead and they don't know what to do

(or, I guess, C, maybe they just suddenly started to suck at counting votes efficiently since the last election)

The voting was by all accounts brisk and efficient today, no lines. So C seems a bit less plausible, though still a possibility.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 09:12:47 PM
98% of the acts transmitted, apparently.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 14, 2013, 09:13:33 PM
Remember: last time it took them till about 10 PM. It is 9:40 in Caracas now.

Ah, the half-an-hour time zones. :P


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 09:15:41 PM
Remember: last time it took them till about 10 PM. It is 9:40 in Caracas now.

Ah, the half-an-hour time zones. :P

Well, this is the properly Bolivarian time :)


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 14, 2013, 09:16:49 PM
Remember: last time it took them till about 10 PM. It is 9:40 in Caracas now.

Ah, the half-an-hour time zones. :P

Well, this is the properly Bolivarian time :)

Down with Greenwich imperialism! ;)


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 09:19:09 PM
Reports that Capriles camp is saying they won by 500k votes.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 09:23:14 PM
Reports that Capriles camp is saying they won by 500k votes.

From you lips to God's ears.



Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Bacon King on April 14, 2013, 09:25:16 PM
Official results getting released within 10 minutes, according to some guy on twitter


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 09:26:50 PM
My head's telling me too good to be true, my heart wants to believe.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 09:26:57 PM
Official results getting released within 10 minutes, according to some guy on twitter

At 10?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 14, 2013, 09:27:00 PM
Official results getting released within 10 minutes, according to some guy on twitter

*bites nails*


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 09:30:51 PM
It is 10 PM. So?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 09:34:13 PM
Only official thing is that Capriles won 4 states.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Bacon King on April 14, 2013, 09:36:06 PM

Surprisingly, random twitter source was incorrect!

However, here's the latest breaking news from Twitter that I think is much more reliable:

@vmorillo Venezuela rompe record Guinnes de mas gente apretando ese culo por mas tiempo!


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 14, 2013, 09:38:02 PM
So still nothing yet?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 09:38:17 PM
Well, they are saying that at the Capriles headquarters they are mounting a stage - and doing the reverse at the Maduro headquarters.

Anyway, probably, nothing but stupid rumours.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 09:38:50 PM
Apparently CNN Latino is reporting that the votes have been tallied and Capriles has won.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Dan the Roman on April 14, 2013, 09:41:08 PM
Exit poll 52-46 Maduro

http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2013/04/14/election-presidentielle-venezuela-maduros-capriles-resultats-sondages-urnes_n_3081280.html?utm_hp_ref=international


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 09:42:13 PM
A bit late for exit polls. They should be posting actual results any point now.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 09:47:21 PM
Capriles' camp is certain they've won, but they've made a decision not to claim victory for obvious reasons. Per CaracasChronicles.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 09:50:47 PM
Sra. Lucena, ¿donde estas?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 14, 2013, 09:52:53 PM
Is Capriles' party playing "Ding Dong The Witch Is Dead" yet?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Old Man Svensson on April 14, 2013, 10:01:08 PM
If Capriles wins, I will eat the biggest hat in Wyoming. And we have a lot of Texan immigrants.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 10:03:08 PM
Far too early. Rumours all over.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 10:07:23 PM
Apparently media reporting that Capriles has won but government refusing to acknowledge it.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 10:08:22 PM
They are, probably, negotiating. Seing, what is the military going to do.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 10:13:02 PM
The military has made clear where their allegiances lie. Chavez spent a few hours with them before conceding '07, but that was Chavez and the presidency wasn't on the line.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 10:16:01 PM
The military has made clear where their allegiances lie. Chavez spent a few hours with them before conceding '07, but that was Chavez and the presidency wasn't on the line.

Allegiances is one thing, a de facto coup is another. And there is no Chavez there: are they willing to go that far for El Pajarito Maduro?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 10:16:06 PM
More reports that CNE is refusing to acknowledge the results, apparently the military brass has convened.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Dan the Roman on April 14, 2013, 10:17:56 PM
More reports that CNE is refusing to acknowledge the results, apparently the military brass has convened.

Where are these reports coming from?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 10:19:18 PM
All from Twitter and CaracasChronicles.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 14, 2013, 10:24:35 PM
If they are actually refusing to publish the results, it means they are clear enough that no tinkering was possible. Wow.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 10:26:20 PM
If they are actually refusing to publish the results, it means they are clear enough that no tinkering was possible. Wow.

Well, or else they are doing the tinkering right now.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 10:27:10 PM
This is why they should be reporting the results LIVE. That way we wouldn´t be guessing. It is much easier to tinker in the dark.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 14, 2013, 10:29:28 PM
I don't think tinkering would take so much time, though. After all, all you have to do is uniformly take votes away from one candidate in each precinct and give them to the other.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Old Man Svensson on April 14, 2013, 10:30:53 PM
According to an article on ABC, Maduro and Capriles have been engaged in a Twitter war for the past hour.

I need someone to confirm this so I can die of laughter.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 10:32:00 PM
Apparently everything on hold till 4 AM Eastern, dunno if that's true. If so, then Capriles definitely won in the legitimate count.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 10:33:22 PM
I don't think tinkering would take so much time, though. After all, all you have to do is uniformly take votes away from one candidate in each precinct and give them to the other.

Hard to do that - it is not such a hopeless system. There ARE actual protections.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 10:34:54 PM
Apparently everything on hold till 4 AM Eastern, dunno if that's true. If so, then Capriles definitely won in the legitimate count.

They would have, at least, told this to the journalists, one would think. The Globovision and El Universal still seem to be waiting.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 10:36:36 PM
From AP: Capriles is meeting with military brass, ditto Interior Minister. We know what this means.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Old Man Svensson on April 14, 2013, 10:37:58 PM
Well, I guess that settles whose side the military is taking. It appears Maduro has nothing left.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 10:38:23 PM
From AP: Capriles is meeting with military brass, ditto Interior Minister. We know what this means.

We will know, if he comes out of that meeting.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 14, 2013, 10:41:00 PM
From AP: Capriles is meeting with military brass, ditto Interior Minister. We know what this means.

We will know, if he comes out of that meeting.

"In front of the military officers, Capriles expressed his dismay of having lost the election yet again, and suddenly committed suicide by shooting himself in the back 15 times."


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 10:42:26 PM
CNE members are going to the announcement spot.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 10:43:43 PM
*Bites nails*


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 14, 2013, 10:44:14 PM
Is there a live stream somewhere?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 10:45:20 PM
www.eluniversal.com


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 10:47:32 PM
They're speaking now. Dunno what they're saying, I don't speak Spanish.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 10:47:39 PM
They announced Maduro win w- 50.6% vs. 49.1% for Capriles.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 10:48:31 PM
sh**t.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on April 14, 2013, 10:48:38 PM
pfffffff


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 10:48:41 PM
They did tinker enough.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 14, 2013, 10:48:58 PM
wat


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Bacon King on April 14, 2013, 10:49:12 PM
Maduros 50.66%


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 10:49:53 PM
Will Capriles concede?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 14, 2013, 10:50:38 PM
Disgusting people.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 10:51:20 PM
Given how close this is, this may turn out nasty.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 10:51:44 PM

Who exactly?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 14, 2013, 10:52:17 PM
Given how close this is, this may turn out nasty.

I sure hope Capriles doesn't go down without a fight.

Until today, Venezuela was a flawed democracy. Now it's officially become a sham democracy.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 14, 2013, 10:52:53 PM

Uh...the people that "run" things.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Bacon King on April 14, 2013, 10:53:07 PM
Capriles is about to address the nation, per his official twitter


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 14, 2013, 10:56:05 PM
Given how close this is, this may turn out nasty.

I sure hope Capriles doesn't go down without a fact.

Until today, Venezuela was a flawed democracy. Now it's officially become a sham democracy.

Like Florida 2000?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 10:57:04 PM
Given how close this is, this may turn out nasty.

I sure hope Capriles doesn't go down without a fact.

Until today, Venezuela was a flawed democracy. Now it's officially become a sham democracy.

Like Florida 2000?

In exactly the same way that you are like a Przewalski horse.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 14, 2013, 10:57:42 PM
Given how close this is, this may turn out nasty.

I sure hope Capriles doesn't go down without a fact.

Until today, Venezuela was a flawed democracy. Now it's officially become a sham democracy.

Like Florida 2000?

Leave. Now.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Old Man Svensson on April 14, 2013, 11:01:00 PM
My ass. Authoritarian as Chavez was, his elections were at least reasonably legitimate. I hope Capriles and the entire country fight this disgrace of democracy. And Maduro? Just the tyrannical liar I thought he was.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 14, 2013, 11:01:24 PM
Given how close this is, this may turn out nasty.

I sure hope Capriles doesn't go down without a fact.

Until today, Venezuela was a flawed democracy. Now it's officially become a sham democracy.

Like Florida 2000?

In exactly the same way that you are like a Przewalski horse.

Well, I guess the comparison was unfair to Venezuela.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 11:02:21 PM
Given how close this is, this may turn out nasty.

I sure hope Capriles doesn't go down without a fact.

Until today, Venezuela was a flawed democracy. Now it's officially become a sham democracy.

Like Florida 2000?

In exactly the same way that you are like a Przewalski horse.

Well, I guess the comparison was unfair to Venezuela.

And to the horse.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Old Man Svensson on April 14, 2013, 11:03:27 PM
Given how close this is, this may turn out nasty.

I sure hope Capriles doesn't go down without a fact.

Until today, Venezuela was a flawed democracy. Now it's officially become a sham democracy.

Like Florida 2000?

In exactly the same way that you are like a Przewalski horse.

Well, I guess the comparison was unfair to Venezuela.

And here I thought you were an adult with decency.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 11:03:53 PM
My ass. Authoritarian as Chavez was, his elections were at least reasonably legitimate. I hope Capriles and the entire country fight this disgrace of democracy. And Maduro? Just the tyrannical liar I thought he was.

Tyrannical? Don't exaggerate. He is a non-entity. His tyrany won't likely extend to more than the dinner menu choice at the Miraflores - and that, when no important guests are expected.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Lief 🗽 on April 14, 2013, 11:07:57 PM
Where is this evidence that the election was tinkered with or illegitimate? Because the results are counter to rumors on twitter? This has been the M.O. of the right in Venezuela for a while. Use the biased media, with Western support, to paint a picture of huge support for the opposition and then cry "stolen!" when the results go against them yet again. Come on.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 11:08:38 PM
Well, assuming Capriles accepts it, I think we should start taking bets on how long El Pajarito survives. Not that I expect his replacement to be any better - unless it is Diosdado (not very likely), it is going to be some proper Bolivarian oficer.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 14, 2013, 11:11:06 PM
Given how close this is, this may turn out nasty.

I sure hope Capriles doesn't go down without a fact.

Until today, Venezuela was a flawed democracy. Now it's officially become a sham democracy.

Like Florida 2000?

In exactly the same way that you are like a Przewalski horse.

Well, I guess the comparison was unfair to Venezuela.

And here I thought you were an adult with decency.

Florida 2000 was clearly stolen. The verdict is still out on this.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 11:12:07 PM
Where is this evidence that the election was tinkered with or illegitimate? Because the results are counter to rumors on twitter? This has been the M.O. of the right in Venezuela for a while. Use the biased media, with Western support, to paint a picture of huge support for the opposition and then cry "stolen!" when the results go against them yet again. Come on.

The problem w/ getting evidence is that to properly document it one would have to go through Chavista courts.

BTW, up until now, at least, the opposition has formally recognized every Chavez victory. The "stolen" claims were never made by responsible players. Even though, of course, the government has always had the full machinery at its disposal, that has made elections anything but free and fair.   


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Old Man Svensson on April 14, 2013, 11:13:18 PM
Where is this evidence that the election was tinkered with or illegitimate?

Don't be naive. Chavez himself had a history of election tinkering, and Maduro is demonstrably far worse than Chavez ever was, in every aspect. He pulled these figures out of his ass.

I hate to compare this any further to the example the chucklehead above me is using - because he's using it purely as a strawman for the sake of being an asshole - but your attitude toward this is uncomfortably reminiscent of the Republicans when George Bush stole his election.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 11:13:45 PM

This is as clear to everyone as that you have hoofs on all four of your feet.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 14, 2013, 11:14:21 PM

This is as clear to everyone as that you have hoofs on all four of your feet.

What's the point of even talking about the possibility of stolen elections with people who won't admit that?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 14, 2013, 11:14:37 PM
Given how close this is, this may turn out nasty.

I sure hope Capriles doesn't go down without a fact.

Until today, Venezuela was a flawed democracy. Now it's officially become a sham democracy.

Like Florida 2000?

In exactly the same way that you are like a Przewalski horse.

Well, I guess the comparison was unfair to Venezuela.

And here I thought you were an adult with decency.

And here I thought everyone was familiar with jfern. You apparently are not.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 11:15:06 PM
but your attitude toward this is uncomfortably reminiscent of the Republicans when George Bush stole his election.

You may have a rather different meaning of the word "to steal" than the one I find in common use.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 14, 2013, 11:17:06 PM
but your attitude toward this is uncomfortably reminiscent of the Republicans when George Bush stole his election.

You may have a rather different meaning of the word "to steal" than the one I find in common use.

OK, so the question is whether this Venezuelan election was "borrowed".


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 11:20:55 PM
What's the point of even talking about the possibility of stolen elections with people who won't admit that?

Indeed, it is not possible talking about elections at all, with somebody who would seriously claim that was "stealing".


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Lief 🗽 on April 14, 2013, 11:21:15 PM
Eh, there were significant and documented irregularities in the Florida election (and even then I wouldn't call it "stolen," just not completely fair). The "evidence" here is that it took a while to count the votes and rumors on twitter said the other guy would win. Unless I'm missing something?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 11:21:26 PM
OK, so the question is whether this Venezuelan election was "borrowed".

The question is, whether Venezuelan election was conducted :)


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Bacon King on April 14, 2013, 11:21:27 PM
STOP FIGHTING BATTLES FROM THIRTEEN YEARS AGO AND STAY ON TOPIC GUYS

EL CRISTO DE CHAVEZ


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Bacon King on April 14, 2013, 11:22:47 PM
Eh, there were significant and documented irregularities in the Florida election (and even then I wouldn't call it "stolen," just not completely fair). The "evidence" here is that it took a while to count the votes and rumors on twitter said the other guy would win. Unless I'm missing something?

The really big question mark for me is Capriles getting summoned to meet with the military brass shortly before the results were announced.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Bacon King on April 14, 2013, 11:25:21 PM
EL HIMNO NATIONAL

(wait is anyone else here watching the livestream)

edit- http://www.punditpress.com/2013/04/watch-venezuela-election-results-live.html


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 11:26:04 PM
Eh, there were significant and documented irregularities in the Florida election (and even then I wouldn't call it "stolen," just not completely fair). The "evidence" here is that it took a while to count the votes and rumors on twitter said the other guy would win. Unless I'm missing something?

Is there any doubt that Al Gore's victory in Florida would have been recognized if he won by any detectable margin?

500 votes in a statewide election in Florida is less than the margin of error of the process. It is properly called a tie. The honest thing would be to determine the outcome of such close elections by a coin toss.

Whereas here there are serious doubts as to whether any Capriles victory would have been recognized.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 14, 2013, 11:26:11 PM
There were certainly irregularities in Florida, and I am fairly sure that with a proper counting of the ballots (and without the mass disenfranchisement that preceded the election) Gore would have won. Still, this doesn't even come close to pulling numbers out of their ass like the Chavists have blatantly done.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 11:28:57 PM
There were certainly irregularities in Florida, and I am fairly sure that with a proper counting of the ballots (and without the mass disenfranchisement that preceded the election) Gore would have won. Still, this doesn't even come close to pulling numbers out of their ass like the Chavists have blatantly done.

The problem is: in Florida in 2000 NO MATTER who would have been declared winner, one side would have had grounds to claim "irregularities". The voting process is simply not designed to determine such narrow leads. Properly speaking, when it is this close, a coin toss should be mandated.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 14, 2013, 11:31:12 PM
Wasn't there a prolonged period of time when results just stopped coming in to the official government election website? Then Maduro just gets announced the winner by a slight margin after the military assembles? Yeah, sounds perfectly legit.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Old Man Svensson on April 14, 2013, 11:34:08 PM
Wasn't there a prolonged period of time when results just stopped coming in to the official government election website? Then Maduro just gets announced the winner by a slight margin after the military assembles? Yeah, sounds perfectly legit.

And it wasn't just that they assembled, it was that they called Capriles in to meet with them, as did the interior minister. Say what you will about Chavez, Maduro is almost transparently an election thief.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 11:35:22 PM
Wasn't there a prolonged period of time when results just stopped coming in to the official government election website? Then Maduro just gets announced the winner by a slight margin after the military assembles? Yeah, sounds perfectly legit.

The results were never coming to the government elections web site. Venezuela has a rather peculiar system, under which nothing is announced until the results are "irreversible".

The system is not completely idiotic/hackish. There are legitimate protections involved. But this one bit of it has always made me worried. There must be places, where the opposition is so weak it can't monitor things on its own. These must be known. Playing w/ the system there is that much easier, since there are no results published during the count. If they did have them published, they would have had to either 1) obviously delay reporting from those places or 2) revise the results later. As it is, there are many fewer eyes watching.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 11:37:48 PM
And it wasn't just that they assembled, it was that they called Capriles in to meet with them, as did the interior minister. Say what you will about Chavez, Maduro is almost transparently an election thief.

If it is true about the military/interior forcing Capriles to accept, there is no thieving involved. It is called a robbery. Then, again, if that's the case, I doubt Maduro himself had much to do w/ the robbery itself. He would be just the temporary beneficiary.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 14, 2013, 11:37:57 PM
Am I the only one who thinks that their 5 score for political freedoms from Freedom House needs to be improved now that they had a Presidential election with a 1.5 point margin of victory?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Bacon King on April 14, 2013, 11:38:08 PM
For the record, the CNE website was shut down all day out of "concerns it would be hacked", so even if results were there its not like anyone could see them.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 11:40:32 PM
Am I the only one who thinks that their 5 score for political freedoms from Freedom House needs to be improved now that they had a Presidential election with a 1.5 point margin of victory?

Yes. 6 would be more appropriate.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Bacon King on April 14, 2013, 11:41:17 PM
Am I the only one who thinks that their 5 score for political freedoms from Freedom House needs to be improved now that they had a Presidential election with a 1.5 point margin of victory?

Considering the unprecedented issues with this election, I'd say this is the first time they've actually deserved that 5. edit- wait how high does the scale go again?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 11:41:57 PM
For the record, the CNE website was shut down all day out of "concerns it would be hacked", so even if results were there its not like anyone could see them.

Yeah, I've noticed I couldn't access it for the last year's results. The system has quite a few circuite breakers built in. Probably, none of that would have mattered if there were courts. But, guess what?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 14, 2013, 11:44:59 PM
Am I the only one who thinks that their 5 score for political freedoms from Freedom House needs to be improved now that they had a Presidential election with a 1.5 point margin of victory?

Considering the unprecedented issues with this election, I'd say this is the first time they've actually deserved that 5. edit- wait how high does the scale go again?

7, and 5 is not considered a democracy.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Bacon King on April 14, 2013, 11:46:45 PM
CAPRILES PREPARING TO SPEAK

Livestream: http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xio7e2_globovision-en-vivo_news


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 11:50:53 PM
Capriles calling for a full recount.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 14, 2013, 11:52:12 PM
"Voto por voto". I think I've heard it somewhere else :)


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: © tweed on April 14, 2013, 11:55:50 PM
send guns, send everything, send a bullet to my head: I'd take it, I would, if you guaranteed if it would be quick.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Old Man Svensson on April 14, 2013, 11:56:24 PM
Capriles calling for a full recount.

Good. No matter what you think of Chavist policy, these "results" are a sham, pure and simple.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 14, 2013, 11:56:40 PM
Capriles calling for a full recount.

No doubt Republicans on this thread will suddenly be for recounts.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: © tweed on April 14, 2013, 11:56:56 PM
I have a strong hatred, angry streak, "anger management issues", for the liberals who want a return to everything, that they won't see:



Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Bacon King on April 14, 2013, 11:57:27 PM
Capriles claiming his people's count is off by 300,000 from the government's count.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: © tweed on April 14, 2013, 11:59:19 PM
Capriles claiming his people's count is off by 300,000 from the government's count.

good, shoot him, let him get his Masters at Harvard right with the blood dripping off his shoulder and arm.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: LastVoter on April 14, 2013, 11:59:42 PM
Given how close this is, this may turn out nasty.

I sure hope Capriles doesn't go down without a fact.

Until today, Venezuela was a flawed democracy. Now it's officially become a sham democracy.

Like Florida 2000?

Leave. Now.
Congratulations, Phil.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 15, 2013, 12:01:25 AM
It's not likely a reocount will do anything. Even if they added a million Maduro votes to the count at the last moemnt, you'd have to have it recognized by the chavista courts. Ain't happening.

The main objective should be to try to trade the recount calls for concessions on how the elections and the judiciary are run.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Old Man Svensson on April 15, 2013, 12:02:01 AM
Capriles calling for a full recount.

No doubt Republicans on this thread will suddenly be for recounts.

And the Democrats. Stop being a ridiculous leftist strawman.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: © tweed on April 15, 2013, 12:02:20 AM
Given how close this is, this may turn out nasty.

I sure hope Capriles doesn't go down without a fight.

Until today, Venezuela was a flawed democracy. Now it's officially become a sham democracy.

you are nothing, you are a flawed nothing, understand nothing but two or three precepts, you think you learned them but didn't, thought that by not learning you learned, but you didn't, you didn't at all, you became the void within the void, the void maintaining the void.  WORDS are NOTHING, words that justify words are further than nothing, stand before the throne and take the knife in your back, your sophistry within the NOTHING of the NOTHING will earn you NOTHING, and NOTHING again.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: © tweed on April 15, 2013, 12:03:34 AM
Even if they added a million Maduro votes to the count at the last moemnt, you'd have to have it recognized by the chavista courts

yes, you had it, had them, had them all for 400 years, and now you DON'T!  play your words upon words, there are better artists than you, my dear,


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 15, 2013, 12:05:38 AM
caída del sistema


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Ban my account ffs! on April 15, 2013, 12:07:22 AM
Even if they added a million Maduro votes to the count at the last moemnt, you'd have to have it recognized by the chavista courts

yes, you had it, had them, had them all for 400 years, and now you DON'T!  play your words upon words, there are better artists than you, my dear,
Dude, take your seroquel and simmer the hell down.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 15, 2013, 12:08:29 AM
Way closer than I thought ...

But really, like Florida in 2000 ?

Venezuela's elections yesterday are not nearly as much of a joke as those of FL in 2000.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 15, 2013, 12:16:28 AM
Even if they added a million Maduro votes to the count at the last moemnt, you'd have to have it recognized by the chavista courts

yes, you had it, had them, had them all for 400 years, and now you DON'T!  play your words upon words, there are better artists than you, my dear,

No lo entiendo.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 15, 2013, 12:21:15 AM
Way closer than I thought ...

But really, like Florida in 2000 ?

Venezuela's elections yesterday are not nearly as much of a joke as those of FL in 2000.

Do you have ANY doubt that, had Al Gore been winning by a margin of, say, 20,000 votes, his victory would have been recognized?

Do you have ANY doubt, that had Capriles been winning by a margin of 200,000 vote, his victory would have been recognized?

That's the difference, really.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 15, 2013, 12:23:09 AM
Shut up Tweed.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Franzl on April 15, 2013, 12:24:07 AM
Way closer than I thought ...

But really, like Florida in 2000 ?

Venezuela's elections yesterday are not nearly as much of a joke as those of FL in 2000.

This is just plain wrong.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: MaxQue on April 15, 2013, 12:25:03 AM
Well, I don't see why everyone is so persuaded than there was fraud.

It's quite possible, I would even it's likely, but I wouldn't dare to affirm it's sure at 100%

Process is flawed and has to be fixed, for sure. Involvement of the army worries me, yes. But I wouldn't make a call on the legitimacy right now. I would wait than more elements are avaliable to reach a fully enlightened decision, not just using first impressions.

It may sound ridiculous, but, we work that way in science, and I think the approach is worthwhile in other domains, too.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: © tweed on April 15, 2013, 12:30:46 AM

Do you have ANY doubt, that had Capriles been winning by a margin of 200,000 vote, his victory would have been recognized?

quite on the contra, there is no chance that a 1-2% Maduro victory will be recognized, in the international, (which think they run the show).


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: LastVoter on April 15, 2013, 12:31:58 AM
Well, I don't see why everyone is so persuaded than there was fraud.

It's quite possible, I would even it's likely, but I wouldn't dare to affirm it's sure at 100%

Process is flawed and has to be fixed, for sure. Involvement of the army worries me, yes. But I wouldn't make a call on the legitimacy right now. I would wait than more elements are avaliable to reach a fully enlightened decision, not just using first impressions.

It may sound ridiculous, but, we work that way in science, and I think the approach is worthwhile in other domains, too.
That's not how right-wingers operate, that's why you don't see many of them in science. They have a tendency to "believe".


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Old Man Svensson on April 15, 2013, 12:33:37 AM
Well, I don't see why everyone is so persuaded than there was fraud.

It's quite possible, I would even it's likely, but I wouldn't dare to affirm it's sure at 100%

Process is flawed and has to be fixed, for sure. Involvement of the army worries me, yes. But I wouldn't make a call on the legitimacy right now. I would wait than more elements are avaliable to reach a fully enlightened decision, not just using first impressions.

It may sound ridiculous, but, we work that way in science, and I think the approach is worthwhile in other domains, too.

That's not how right-wingers operate, that's why you don't see many of them in science. They have a tendency to "believe".

We all "believe". Does that make me, someone that you personally helped identify with socialism, a right-winger?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: LastVoter on April 15, 2013, 12:49:03 AM
Well, I don't see why everyone is so persuaded than there was fraud.

It's quite possible, I would even it's likely, but I wouldn't dare to affirm it's sure at 100%

Process is flawed and has to be fixed, for sure. Involvement of the army worries me, yes. But I wouldn't make a call on the legitimacy right now. I would wait than more elements are avaliable to reach a fully enlightened decision, not just using first impressions.

It may sound ridiculous, but, we work that way in science, and I think the approach is worthwhile in other domains, too.

That's not how right-wingers operate, that's why you don't see many of them in science. They have a tendency to "believe".

We all "believe". Does that make me, someone that you personally helped identify with socialism, a right-winger?
I think a couple examples from a few recent days tell a different story. Most notably their response when there was an attempt to compare reactions at Chavez and Thatcher deaths, and Bush's Florida in 2000. I don't think anyone on the left went around [inks]ing about how celebrations of Chavez's death were in bad taste.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 15, 2013, 01:21:22 AM

Do you have ANY doubt, that had Capriles been winning by a margin of 200,000 vote, his victory would have been recognized?

quite on the contra, there is no chance that a 1-2% Maduro victory will be recognized, in the international, (which think they run the show).

Do you mean the IV International? Just wondering.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 15, 2013, 01:46:07 AM
Don't try to make sense out of Tweed's posts, ag. There is none.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Zanas on April 15, 2013, 06:27:05 AM
I'm not trying to be the moderate hero here, but I wanted to ask what exactly are we basing ourselves on to judge the process rigged ? This is a real question.

I haven't been following the thread live because I was in bed then at work, and I'm only reading the whole of it now, and frankly I don't see what's changed compared to any other election before that.

Rumors on Twitter had the opposition victorious : we've seen that before, right ? They gave results where they had 600,000 votes more : pretty sure we also saw this, although I don't know where their figures come from.

Are we relying on the only fact that Capriles has been called to meet military representants ? I agree this is weird and surely not a good sign, but are there other tangible signs ?

I mean, everyone was like "the opposition has won, clearly, as they are all over on twitter about it, and so the Chavistas are not calling victory because they wait to see how they can rig the election". Alright.

But how can we say the situation is not "the results are razor-thin, so the regime doesn't want to call victory too soon because they know they will be severely judged by the entire international press, and so the opposition feels confident enough to be all over twitter saying they won, and asking for a recount when the figures are published" ?

Frankly, from I have read right now, both situations seem equally plausible. I mean, if you haven't convinced yourself one way or the other beforehand. And I'll admit this was a rigged election if presented with further elements.

And one last thing : to those complaining about them not publishing results precinct by precinct while counting, well we never did that in France either, we publish the whole bunch when it's finished, and I guess our elections are quite reliable. So that's really not a good marker of good or bad democracy.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 15, 2013, 06:41:19 AM
Results by region:

()


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 15, 2013, 06:45:44 AM
Capriles calling for a full recount.

No doubt Republicans on this thread will suddenly be for recounts.

Has Capriles called a recount only in Miami-Dade and Broward counties?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 15, 2013, 06:47:53 AM
I'm not surprised. The fact that results were down for hours, and especially the military meeting... WTH would they meet Capriles if he genuinely lost? I doubt these guys will relinquish power anytime soon.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 15, 2013, 06:48:32 AM
http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/mapa-de-resultados-electorales

The full map with regional results.

Turnout was actually very close to 80%, not 78% like the APA graphic shows.

Many people voted later this time, contrary to last years election when many voted early in the day.

Capriles should accept his defeat, because that's like saying OH was stolen by the Bush folks in 2004 (which is probably more likely than the Maduro-people rigging this election).


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 15, 2013, 07:10:31 AM


Capriles should accept his defeat, because that's like saying OH was stolen by the Bush folks in 2004 (which is probably more likely than the Maduro-people rigging this election).

I think you have some very serious misunderstanding of certain features of the respective electoral systems.  "Stealing" a large election is a lot harder, where things are decentralized and there are ways to appeal. Whether this particular election was stolen or not, it is a lot more realistically domable here. 


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 15, 2013, 07:12:53 AM
I'm not surprised. The fact that results were down for hours, and especially the military meeting... WTH would they meet Capriles if he genuinely lost? I doubt these guys will relinquish power anytime soon.

That the results were down for hours is, unfortunately, a feature, not a bug. Somebody thought this was a right thing to do.  They do it by law this way.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: hawkeye59 on April 15, 2013, 07:17:37 AM
By the way, who will perform the audit?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 15, 2013, 07:28:25 AM
Presumably people whom the regime trusts. Cabello said on Twitter that the results require reflection, self-criticism while also wondering why poor people voted against their interest. When was the last time any of them said anything like that?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 15, 2013, 08:04:31 AM
People, Maduro won. End of the story.

I was for Capriles last year, but I have to say I wanted Maduro to win this time. Maduro has been a clown since he took office, but Capriles became a clown just in order to win the election, so I'm glad he lost, because I'd prefer to vote for the socialist clown over the conservative clown!

1.5% is not a good victory, but it's enough to be a clear win, no need for a recount if the election was clean, something I believe, because it tends to be that way in Venezuela. José Bono, a conservative politician (but in the PSOE) said on TV this morning the process is far more clean in Venezuela than it is in Spain, so I'll believe him this time haha...

What's more, there will be a recount and it's obvious Maduro will be declared winner.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Hash on April 15, 2013, 08:22:42 AM
LibDem bar graphs facing tough competition from Venezuela:

()


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: hawkeye59 on April 15, 2013, 11:30:47 AM
People, Maduro won. End of the story.

I was for Capriles last year, but I have to say I wanted Maduro to win this time. Maduro has been a clown since he took office, but Capriles became a clown just in order to win the election, so I'm glad he lost, because I'd prefer to vote for the socialist clown over the conservative clown!

1.5% is not a good victory, but it's enough to be a clear win, no need for a recount if the election was clean, something I believe, because it tends to be that way in Venezuela. José Bono, a conservative politician (but in the PSOE) said on TV this morning the process is far more clean in Venezuela than it is in Spain, so I'll believe him this time haha...

What's more, there will be a recount and it's obvious Maduro will be declared winner.
Even if Maduro won, I think a recount would be good, just to make sure, because of the large amount of reported irregularities.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Bacon King on April 15, 2013, 11:41:52 AM
Regarding the allegations of fraud and its likelihood:

  • Over two thousand incidents of irregularities were reported yesterday, including men in PSUV jackets "helping" people cast ballots, forty election-related arrests,  and an incident where soldiers carried away ballot boxes before the paper audit could be done.
  • The opposition, which had pollwatchers at every single precinct across the country, reported their vote totals to be a Capriles victory of ~100k votes. This is particularly notable because the opposition's count in October mirrored the CNE's count almost perfectly.
  • The extremely suspicious behavior of many in the Venezuelan government and military must also be considered, which has already been noted here.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 15, 2013, 11:49:55 AM
I think most likely they pulled a variant of Mexico '88: saw the real numbers, panicked, and fixed them. Difference is that they gave themselves a narrow victory for a plausibility figleaf.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 15, 2013, 12:04:42 PM
Does the CNE consist of Capriles-people as well, or is it "government-owned" ?

If the CNE consists of Capriles-people as well, it would be crazy to say they "fixed" these numbers by 500.000 votes without anyone complaining.

Of course, there were isolated problems in some precincts (2000 alltogether), but we are talking about more than 100K votes that were allegedly "fixed" ...


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 15, 2013, 12:13:36 PM
I don't think there are any Capriles reps on CNE. According to CC they will be "certifying these results" in a few hours and if there's an audit it won't be a full one.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 15, 2013, 12:24:01 PM
I don't think there are any Capriles reps on CNE. According to CC they will be "certifying these results" in a few hours and if there's an audit it won't be a full one.

The Wikipedia article about it sounds very positive though:

Quote
International electoral observers and analysts have praised the CNE for its efficiency and transparency. It has updated and modernized the voter registry and voting infrastructure, and increased participation by establishing additional voting centers in underserved areas.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Electoral_Council_of_Venezuela

Also:

Quote
A Conversation with Tibisay Lucena Ramírez, President of the National Electoral Council of Venezuela

Lucena highlighted the confidence that both the opposition and the government candidates have placed in the results provided by the National Electoral Council. As a testament to this trust, she cited the National Electoral Council‘s offer of technical assistance to the Mesa de la Unidad, a platform that brings together opposition leaders during their primary elections in February 2012.

http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=2761


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: minionofmidas on April 15, 2013, 12:37:27 PM
Nonstandard first name, fairly indigenous looking face... no prices for guessing what camp this woman is from. ;)

Also, her predecessor as head of CNE went from there to becoming vice president (for less than two years, then he resigned to run for state Governor.) Oh, and the only other CNE member to have a wikipedia page has that apparently for a single reason: he is
Quote
the only one who is openly politically independent from the current ruling political party.
Whoever worded that.

That said, the CNE is independent in the sense that the Government can't just remove any members.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 15, 2013, 12:41:23 PM
So, the "only independent guy" on the CNE was not there when they rigged the 300.000 votes ?

Did they drug him ?

Or threaten that they kill his family ?

Offered him a couple millions from oil money ?

Why is he silent when a few hundred thousand votes were rigged according to the right-wingers ?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: minionofmidas on April 15, 2013, 12:47:30 PM
So, the "only independent guy" on the CNE was not there when they rigged the 300.000 votes ?

Did they drug him ?

Or threaten that they kill his family ?

Offered him a couple millions from oil money ?

Why is he silent when a few hundred thousand votes were rigged according to the right-wingers ?
"openly politically independent" could conceivably mean "not openly a party member, though he is in their boat of course"... though if whoever worded that meant it that way "the current ruling" bit is an odd formulation to use. If English was their mother tongue, anyways.

One thing we do know based on past form is: The possibility that Capriles actually polled exactly at, very narrowly below, or anywhere above the first set of opposition-circulated numbers (so the 1.4mio vote lead) is dead zero.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 15, 2013, 12:55:41 PM
Biggest indicator is the military's involvement. They stayed out of it for all of Chavez's elections, and last time they got involved was 2007. Then the government acting completely differently than they normally do.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: minionofmidas on April 15, 2013, 01:05:33 PM
A bit of research. Yes, that guy on the CNE is an opposition man. And he wants a full manual recount.

It is, you know, conceivable likely that the government is panicky because they hadn't expected such a close result at all, certainly not with turnout near last year's levels, and they know who is to blame: Their next President. That clown ran a very incompetent campaign. ag is right on one thing: Maduro is damaged goods after this election. He'll be seen as at best a  primus inter pares by the military in the Boliburguesa.

Incidentally, I also see rumours that Capriles offered a "pact" - ie a corrupt bargain -  in exchange for an election concession.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 15, 2013, 01:09:51 PM
A bit of research. Yes, that guy on the CNE is an opposition man. And he wants a full manual recount.

It is, you know, conceivable likely that the government is panicky because they hadn't expected such a close result at all, certainly not with turnout near last year's levels, and they know who is to blame: Their next President. That clown ran a very incompetent campaign. ag is right on one thing: Maduro is damaged goods after this election. He'll be seen as at best a  primus inter pares by the military in the Boliburguesa.

Incidentally, I also see rumours that Capriles offered a "pact" - ie a corrupt bargain -  in exchange for an election concession.

Indeed.

He does not have the charisma of Chavez and the "birdy thing" might have pissed off another 3-5%.

If he would have let the birdy in his head, rather than talk about it, he could have won with 53-54%.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 15, 2013, 01:43:15 PM
Capriles is calling on CNE not to certify and for national protests.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 15, 2013, 02:37:09 PM
Capriles is calling on CNE not to certify and for national protests.

Good job. This just can't be accepted.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 15, 2013, 03:07:01 PM
I think most likely they pulled a variant of Mexico '88: saw the real numbers, panicked, and fixed them. Difference is that they gave themselves a narrow victory for a plausibility figleaf.

Actually, that´s not a difference. In 1988 they gave Salinas exactly the same vote share: 50.7% - just enough to claim a "mandate". It was a three-way race, though, so the margin was a bit bigger.

Now, I don't, yet, really know, if they did something - perhaps, this is the true vote. But many signs are suspicious. Still, I would need to understand the details of the electoral system better.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 15, 2013, 03:08:51 PM
Does the CNE consist of Capriles-people as well, or is it "government-owned" ?

If the CNE consists of Capriles-people as well, it would be crazy to say they "fixed" these numbers by 500.000 votes without anyone complaining.

Of course, there were isolated problems in some precincts (2000 alltogether), but we are talking about more than 100K votes that were allegedly "fixed" ...

No Capriles people - where could they come from? The country has been dominated by Chavez for 15 years. One of the  5 commissioners might be an independent, though. The other 4, if I am not mistaken, have a reputation of being chavistas. No time to check now, though. There might be Capriles representatives observing the procedings - that I don't know.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on April 15, 2013, 03:49:43 PM
Well, that was close....suspiciously close.....


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 15, 2013, 03:55:50 PM
Well, that was close....suspiciously close.....

And if the result had been 60-39 for Maduro it would have been wide.... suspiciously wide....


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Knives on April 15, 2013, 04:02:59 PM
The best man won in the end I guess. :)


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Donerail on April 15, 2013, 04:21:29 PM
Well, that was close....suspiciously close.....

And if the result had been 60-39 for Maduro it would have been wide.... suspiciously wide....

If the same reports we're getting now had been coming in with those results, yes, it would be.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 15, 2013, 04:29:21 PM
Well, that was close....suspiciously close.....

And if the result had been 60-39 for Maduro it would have been wide.... suspiciously wide....

If the same reports we're getting now had been coming in with those results, yes, it would be.

Sanchez didn't talk about any report, FYI.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 15, 2013, 04:31:52 PM
Capriles claims he won by less than a point using the 100k figure, Maduro says he won by 1.6. Either way the country's divided in 2 and could be a tinderbox.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Bacon King on April 15, 2013, 04:37:43 PM
Protests reported today in Caracas and Barinas State (http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/04/15/students-troops-face-off-amid-scattered-protests-around-venezuela-over-disputed), both involving some degree of violent clashes.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Donerail on April 15, 2013, 05:50:04 PM
Well, that was close....suspiciously close.....

And if the result had been 60-39 for Maduro it would have been wide.... suspiciously wide....

If the same reports we're getting now had been coming in with those results, yes, it would be.

Sanchez didn't talk about any report, FYI.

I'm assuming he read the rest of the thread.

#MaduroPresidenteILEGITIMO is now trending on Twitter.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RodPresident on April 15, 2013, 08:02:29 PM
Maduro is very weak. He almost lost Barinas (Chavez home province). He'll need to do many things to prevent a recall in 2016. In 2018, candidate should be someone linked to Chavez, like Adam Chavez or Jorge Arreaza.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 15, 2013, 09:22:52 PM
Results certified, Maduro sworn in. Streets heating up.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 15, 2013, 09:25:19 PM
What a travesty.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 15, 2013, 09:43:24 PM
We better hope that there's no violence, and especially no fatalities.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RJEvans on April 15, 2013, 11:05:40 PM
Capriles will be President of Venezuela...in 2018. He needs to remain the voice of the opposition, challenging Maduro. Essentially, run a 5-year campaign. Da Silva lost three times before he became a two-term President. He's still very young. Let Maduro and his cronies run Venezuela into the ground. Keep the voice of the opposition alive and he will be President.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 15, 2013, 11:34:02 PM
Maduro saying a coup is imminent. I'd laugh were the situation not so delicate.

http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2013/04/15/nicolas-maduro-es-proclamado-presidente-de-venezuela/


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 16, 2013, 12:45:37 AM
Capriles will be President of Venezuela...in 2018. He needs to remain the voice of the opposition, challenging Maduro. Essentially, run a 5-year campaign. Da Silva lost three times before he became a two-term President. He's still very young. Let Maduro and his cronies run Venezuela into the ground. Keep the voice of the opposition alive and he will be President.

Yeah, the only thing that is certain is that almost winning this boosted Capriles' stature as the opposition leader, and he will certainly have new chances to compete (provided Venezuela doesn't degenerate into a dictatorship-in-all-but-name, which unfortunately cannot be excluded at this point).


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 16, 2013, 12:49:19 AM
Maduro's lead increases to 262.000 with near final results (foreign precincts missing).

50.75% Maduro
48.98% Capriles

Almost a 2% margin now ...

()


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 16, 2013, 12:50:22 AM
Capriles calling for a full recount.

No doubt Republicans on this thread will suddenly be for recounts.

Has Capriles called a recount only in Miami-Dade and Broward counties?

Gore called for a statewide recount a week after the election.

http://archives.smdailyjournal.com/article_preview.php?id=731


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 16, 2013, 12:51:55 AM
Maduro saying a coup is imminent. I'd laugh were the situation not so delicate.

http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2013/04/15/nicolas-maduro-es-proclamado-presidente-de-venezuela/

Not that far fetched. Thing number #2881222 on the list of things that the Bush administration did without really thinking through.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_d'%C3%A9tat_attempt


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 16, 2013, 12:52:22 AM
I should note that while the "foreign precincts" are still missing in the vote total, they will not change the result, because only 100.000 Venezuela people abroad are eligible to vote.

The current Maduro-lead is over 260.000 though.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Franzl on April 16, 2013, 02:03:05 AM
I should note that while the "foreign precincts" are still missing in the vote total, they will not change the result, because only 100.000 Venezuela people abroad are eligible to vote.

The current Maduro-lead is over 260.000 though.

The margin doesn't really tell you much about the fairness of an election.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 16, 2013, 02:18:14 AM
I should note that while the "foreign precincts" are still missing in the vote total, they will not change the result, because only 100.000 Venezuela people abroad are eligible to vote.

The current Maduro-lead is over 260.000 though.

The margin doesn't really tell you much about the fairness of an election.

True, but the margin increasing in the final updates from 1.5 to 1.8% now could indicate that the Capriles-folks were too sure of a win with let's say 90% of precincts in and then some Maduro-strongholds came in.

We often see that in Virginia for example as well: Romney/McCain leading early in and then NoVa comes in and changes everything. Remember when J.J. was calling a Bradley-effect when McCain was 10% ahead in VA in 2008 and ended up winning by 6 points ?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Franzl on April 16, 2013, 02:20:51 AM
I should note that while the "foreign precincts" are still missing in the vote total, they will not change the result, because only 100.000 Venezuela people abroad are eligible to vote.

The current Maduro-lead is over 260.000 though.

The margin doesn't really tell you much about the fairness of an election.

True, but the margin increasing in the final updates from 1.5 to 1.8% now could indicate that the Capriles-folks were too sure of a win with let's say 90% of precincts in and then some Maduro-strongholds came in.

We often see that in Virginia for example as well: Romney/McCain leading early in and then NoVa comes in and changes everything. Remember when J.J. was calling a Bradley-effect when McCain was 10% ahead in VA in 2008 and ended up winning by 6 points ?

Yes but J.J. is an idiot.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 16, 2013, 06:03:53 AM
()

"Look, I have officially won. Suck it, Capriles-backers !"

;)


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 16, 2013, 08:24:19 AM
Capriles calling for a full recount.

No doubt Republicans on this thread will suddenly be for recounts.

Has Capriles called a recount only in Miami-Dade and Broward counties?

Gore called for a statewide recount a week after the election.

http://archives.smdailyjournal.com/article_preview.php?id=731

Yeah. The tiny detail you're leaving out: November 10th (three days after the election) - Team Gore requests a recount only in Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Volusia counties.

That's enough of your nonsense for a few months now, jfern. Bye.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 16, 2013, 10:21:51 AM
Maduro is very weak. He almost lost Barinas (Chavez home province). He'll need to do many things to prevent a recall in 2016. In 2018, candidate should be someone linked to Chavez, like Adam Chavez or Jorge Arreaza.

If, that is, he is still in Miraflores by 2016. Too weak - he will be replaced by somebody inside the regime well before the elections.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 16, 2013, 11:48:17 AM
That's the whole problem. Chavez, unlike Lula for example, did not raise a successor. So when he died, the presidency went to a random sidekick who happened to be his current Vice President. Despite his health, he acted like he's President for life with many years to go.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 16, 2013, 12:08:46 PM
7 people killed, 135 arrested. Cabello making noise about legal action against Capriles. If it gets uglier then the military will deploy en masse IMO.

Kalwejt: Yeah, Chavez said many times he wanted to be President till 2030.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 16, 2013, 12:45:28 PM
Maduro: No oppo march, "time for a tough hand."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/16/uk-venezuela-election-march-idUKBRE93F0Y420130416


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on April 16, 2013, 01:18:12 PM
Maduro: No oppo march, "time for a tough hand."

Always great words to hear out of a recently elected leader.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 16, 2013, 02:36:17 PM
Maduro: No oppo march, "time for a tough hand."

Always great words to hear out of a recently elected leader.

You can't be serious...


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on April 16, 2013, 02:36:55 PM
I was being sarcastic, Antonio. :P

I don't support Maduro.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 16, 2013, 02:45:43 PM
I was being sarcastic, Antonio. :P

I don't support Maduro.

Oh, sorry. ;)


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 16, 2013, 02:47:06 PM
Maduro's taken over the airwaves. Cadena. Capriles was supposed to give a presser with intl  media.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 16, 2013, 03:15:08 PM
Maduro saying the US is plotting against him, said that money would be cut off from communities who disn't support him, Capriles is a killer. Chavista mobs are attacking opposition buildings. No money to Miranda.

Hmm... is an autocoup next?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 16, 2013, 03:19:18 PM
Said the opposition won't be allowed to march in Caracas... I assume the military will be out in full force.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 16, 2013, 03:45:48 PM
Well this is a disaster.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 16, 2013, 03:56:14 PM

Also said that he wouldn't recognize governors who wouldn't recognize him. He had a shadow guv in Miranda pre-election... would he try and forcibly take over the state government? Or at least make its operation impossible? (Federal money's already gone) No one knows.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Peter the Lefty on April 16, 2013, 03:57:39 PM
Maduro: No oppo march, "time for a tough hand."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/16/uk-venezuela-election-march-idUKBRE93F0Y420130416
Holy sh*t.  Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think even Chavez would've gone this far off the deep end.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 16, 2013, 04:06:04 PM
If the opposition marches in Caracas tomorrow and Chavistas are also there... this could get very ugly very quickly. The question isn't whether the military will use force, since they already have (non-lethal for now), but how much.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 16, 2013, 05:01:42 PM
Capriles called off tomorrow's march.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 16, 2013, 05:11:44 PM


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 16, 2013, 05:13:43 PM
So, this means Chávez was the moderate in the Government.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Knives on April 16, 2013, 05:22:04 PM
Maduro won fair and square, the others a just sooks.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Peter the Lefty on April 16, 2013, 05:27:10 PM
Maduro won fair and square, the others a just sooks.
Nevermind the fact that he's trying to prevent demonstrations that challenge it? 


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Peter the Lefty on April 16, 2013, 06:02:28 PM
Look, Capriles is a scumbag, there's no question of that.  Is it likely that he'll renege on his promises to keep Chavez's social programs in place and enact fully and uncompromisingly neoliberal policies?  Yes.  But when a the military starts to intervene after videos show government party workers doing suspicious things, and the "winner" starts to abuse his power to quell street demos, democracy must come first.  Thankfully, it does look like there's a non-Chavismo left there, if a tiny one.  Hopefully, if Maduro continues to be a clown throughout his presidency, people will start to turn to them.  After Capriles cruises to a victory in 2018, hopefully we can see someone from a party like Avadanza Progresista, or the Movement for Socialism, the Radical Cause, or some alliance of them.  I'm dreaming, I know.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 16, 2013, 06:20:31 PM
Maduro won fair and square, the others a just sooks.
Square - might be. Fair - that's hard to sustain.
Unless the opposition presents enough evidence in the next few days that in a substantial number of polls the results were manipulated/falsified (along with a sufficiently clear explanation of how it was done), I will have to accept the results of the vote count showing Maduro's victory. In other words, I will accept that on the election day, Maduro obtained more votes than Capriles, without resorting to outright manipulation of the count.
Since Capriles participated in the process, that, in my view, would make Maduro's election reasonably legitimate. However, a fair election it was not - the entire process was heavily stacked in favor of the government.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 16, 2013, 06:29:36 PM
Look, Capriles is a scumbag, there's no question of that.  Is it likely that he'll renege on his promises to keep Chavez's social programs in place and enact fully and uncompromisingly neoliberal policies?  Yes.  But when a the military starts to intervene after videos show government party workers doing suspicious things, and the "winner" starts to abuse his power to quell street demos, democracy must come first.  Thankfully, it does look like there's a non-Chavismo left there, if a tiny one.  Hopefully, if Maduro continues to be a clown throughout his presidency, people will start to turn to them.  After Capriles cruises to a victory in 2018, hopefully we can see someone from a party like Avadanza Progresista, or the Movement for Socialism, the Radical Cause, or some alliance of them.  I'm dreaming, I know.

Thanks for reminding those who are getting wet pants over Capriles (and I'm not thinking about rightist posters right now), what scum he really is.

I really hope Maduro and the military guys come to their senses.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 16, 2013, 06:34:46 PM

Also said that he wouldn't recognize governors who wouldn't recognize him.

In this one I stand with Maduro. As much as we may criticize him, he won the election and Governors refusing to recognize elected President is not a tolerable situation.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 16, 2013, 07:55:51 PM
In this one I stand with Maduro. As much as we may criticize him, he won the election and Governors refusing to recognize elected President is not a tolerable situation.

Well, you will then be delighted to know that Bohdan the Hairy has just announced that MP's, who do not recognize Maduro, will not be allowed to speak in the National Assambley. I guess, the next step will be to deny those citizens, who do not recognize Maduro the right to vote in the consequent elections.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 16, 2013, 09:08:06 PM
Ag: Or they'll just publish the names of Capriles voters with all the consequences that entails. Did it with the recall vote.

Apparently they'll just hold a pots-and-pans protest instead of a march.

Some slides he used in today's presser with examples of alleged fraud, H/T CC.

http://venezuelasomostodos.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Incidencias-del-proceso-electoral-14A.pdf


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 16, 2013, 09:31:19 PM
Worse than I thought: Maduro said "You won't go downtown to fill it with blood and death." Talked about 2002. We can probably rule out rubber bullets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-16/venezuela-faces-turmoil-as-maduro-foes-protest-victory-decree.html

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/venezuela-president-elect-warns-opposition-protests-are-death-wish


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 16, 2013, 09:49:53 PM
So here are a few questions I have. Can somebody help?

1. It is now over 48 hours since the polls have closed. Where are the precinct-level returns? The CNE webpage has been impossible to access since the election day. The news sources report state-level results -and that's all. I can't even seem to find the municipal-level maps. Given that the official results are generated and reported ELECTRONICALLY, there must be an excel file or something of the sort somewhere. Is it publically available? To whom it is available, if it is not public?

2. In addition to the official precinct-level results, there was the "audit" of the 54% of the precincts. What were those precincts? Is there a list? Is it public? Where are the audit results - precinct-level or otherwise?

3. How is the randomization done to determine the 54% of the precincts to be recounted on the election night? Is the software/hardware used public? Has it been independently checked? In particular, is there any guarantee - I would take a word of a single qualified and informed independent observer as such a guarantee - that nobody can figure out which precincts would be recounted before the official results are reported?

3a. By the way, given that they actually count 54% of the precincts by hand, why the hell did they bother about computerizing the whole system to begin with? Ok, I get the control argument - properly used, the system can make manipulations harder. But 54% or 100% is not a major difference logistically. Why not insist on a 100% manual count on the election night?

BTW, I agree that any voto-por-voto recount now would be useless. It would only be easier to manipulate - the proper handcount should happen on election night.

3. I understand, that CNE BY LAW can only make an announcement of any numbers once the results are "irreversible". Who and why thought it desirable to prevent the public from observing the count as it is progressing? What was the justification advanced for introducing this legal norm?

4. What was the set of people who were monitoring the progress of the count in the CNE headquarters?

5. Though the progress of the count was never reported, there must be some record of which precincts reported at what time. Is that data available - anywhere, to anyone?

I am not, at this point, alleging outright counting fraud. I am just puzzling about the electoral system - and wondering about where to find the returns.  Anybody has any answers?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 16, 2013, 10:27:43 PM
PSUV claiming they'll put actas on their website.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 16, 2013, 10:33:22 PM
PSUV claiming they'll put actas on their website.

Well, how nice of them.

But why in hell hasn't the CNE done it? They've invested a tonne of money in the computerized voting system - which is, at least, 54% useless. And they couldn't find a few bolivars to get the returns properly reported? Even the Russians put some numbers on the web the night of the election (true, many of those numbers they invent by repeatedly tossing the Election Commission Chairman's old socks upward and counting the number of times they stick to the ceiling - but, at least, they give us enough information to figure out what they do).


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 17, 2013, 10:41:50 AM
Unconfirmed media reports that there's an arrest warrant out for Capriles on charges of "incitement."


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 17, 2013, 10:52:13 AM
So, it seems the CNE web page is available - but only from within Venezuela. I wish somebody could tell me exactly what is posted on it.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 17, 2013, 10:53:53 AM
So, it seems the CNE web page is available - but only from within Venezuela. I wish somebody could tell me exactly what is posted on it.

Hopefully Dave doesn't read your post and installs a similar version for election nights 2014/16.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 17, 2013, 10:58:23 AM
So, it seems the CNE web page is available - but only from within Venezuela. I wish somebody could tell me exactly what is posted on it.

Hopefully Dave doesn't read your post and installs a similar version for election nights 2014/16.

Election night was 3 days ago.

The thing is, I may well conclude that they did count correctly. But I need data to figure this out one way or another. I can't get data. The entire thing is done in a way that seems designed to exasperate. 


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 17, 2013, 11:00:15 AM
Confirmation that there's a warrant out for Capriles.

http://noticiasvenezuela.org/2013/04/leopoldo-lopez-confirma-ordenes-de-captura-contra-el-y-henrique-capriles/

Ag: This might be what you're looking for. Links on the bottom. H/T CaracasChronicles.

http://esdata.info/2013


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 17, 2013, 11:02:08 AM
So, it seems the CNE web page is available - but only from within Venezuela. I wish somebody could tell me exactly what is posted on it.

Hopefully Dave doesn't read your post and installs a similar version for election nights 2014/16.

Election night was 3 days ago.

The thing is, I may well conclude that they did count correctly. But I need data to figure this out one way or another. I can't get data. The entire thing is done in a way that seems designed to exasperate. 

Well, you could use an IP-changing program that allows you to switch to a server from Venezuela to access the CNE, instead of using your Mexican IP.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 17, 2013, 11:14:16 AM
I am sufficiently computer-illiterate not to know how to do this. For the moment, if you could do this, could you just let me know what data are there? Do they have the precinct data - both the electronic count and the "audit"?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 17, 2013, 11:16:51 AM
I am sufficiently computer-illiterate not to know how to do this.

I posted the link a couple of posts up: here's the data in Office and Excel format.

http://esdata.info/resultados/resultados_elecc_2013-04-14-v1.xlsx

http://esdata.info/resultados/resultados_elecc_2013-04-14-v1.ods


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 17, 2013, 11:47:01 AM
Thanks a lot!

But this is only the official electronic result. Do they have the audit results posted - or, at least, the list of audited mesas?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 17, 2013, 11:50:19 AM
Not as far as I know. I'd be surprised if the original-original data, or at least the incriminating part, still exists. Just a hunch on my part.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 17, 2013, 11:53:55 AM
Not as far as I know. I'd be surprised if the original-original data, or at least the incriminating part, still exists. Just a hunch on my part.

I am not asking for an incriminating part. I am asking for the list of mesas that were audited - the famous 54%. I am operating on the assumption that nobody would be stupid enough to play with those - I want, first, to figure out the certifiably honest part. What interests me at the moment is the very simple statistic: the oficial results just in the 54% of the mesas that have been audited. For the moment, I want to take them at face value.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Bacon King on April 17, 2013, 01:57:19 PM
So, it seems the CNE web page is available - but only from within Venezuela. I wish somebody could tell me exactly what is posted on it.

Are you certain? I'm connected through a Venezuelan proxy right now in an attempt to access the CNE website but the page still refuses to load.

edit, nevermind, switched to a different proxy and it was able to access it. A thorough search revealed that they haven't posted anything about the "verificación ciudadana" (i.e., the manual auditing of 54% of precincts) since they originally announced its implementation back in March.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 17, 2013, 02:52:32 PM
Pity. Anyway, just eyeballing the data do not seem overly strange. One would have to do some statistical tests, but, at least, it does not seem to be too blatant. For the moment, I will wait for more evidence before making any conclusions. I do think they have a circuit breaker somewhere, but I don't see any obvious evidence of it being employed this time.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Famous Mortimer on April 17, 2013, 09:42:21 PM
Man, this was a boring election.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 17, 2013, 11:57:15 PM

Looks like a scary post-election. At this point, the relevant question is, when is it becoming a self-coup, I am afraid.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 18, 2013, 10:12:34 PM
NYT reporting CNE will conduct an audit of voting machines... no independent institutions left in Venezuela, the battle's a political one.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Bacon King on April 19, 2013, 12:52:34 AM
NYT reporting CNE will conduct an audit of voting machines... no independent institutions left in Venezuela, the battle's a political one.

Hmm. Here's a thought:

We know Maduro is obviously the placeholder for the true successor to Chavez, just holding the presidency until the powers-that-be behind the scenes have time to coalesce around someone. Note that the Venezuelan Constitution allows the President to essentially replace the Vice President at will, by the way, so the handover wouldn't even be difficult at all if Maduro doesn't go rogue.

However, with the nuisance that Capriles has been causing and Maduro's increasingly erractic behavior, what if they decide it'd just be simpler to let Capriles win? This full audit might then be intentionally removing the pro-Maduro vote tampering (or, if Maduro's narrow victory was legitimate, fixing the results in favor of Capriles)?

Think about it. The PSUV has a huge majority in Parliament, so Capriles wouldn't accomplish anything. Given the extensive state control over the media, it'd be incredibly easy for the PSUV to drum up public opposition to Capriles and force a successful recall vote whenever they wanted. Maduro was picked as the placeholder because he was considered to be a soft-spoken an capable administrator-- given that he's clearly demonstrated this assessment was inaccurate, is it really a stretch to assume that PSUV leadership would pick a useless Capriles presidency to be preferable to an off-the-rails Maduro?

Not sure I even believe this myself, but it's a thought. It'd also explain why Capriles was summoned to meet with the Generals just before the results were announced, which as far as I know we never got an explanation for.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 19, 2013, 01:11:50 AM
NYT reporting CNE will conduct an audit of voting machines... no independent institutions left in Venezuela, the battle's a political one.

Hmm. Here's a thought:

We know Maduro is obviously the placeholder for the true successor to Chavez, just holding the presidency until the powers-that-be behind the scenes have time to coalesce around someone. Note that the Venezuelan Constitution allows the President to essentially replace the Vice President at will, by the way, so the handover wouldn't even be difficult at all if Maduro doesn't go rogue.

However, with the nuisance that Capriles has been causing and Maduro's increasingly erractic behavior, what if they decide it'd just be simpler to let Capriles win? This full audit might then be intentionally removing the pro-Maduro vote tampering (or, if Maduro's narrow victory was legitimate, fixing the results in favor of Capriles)?

Think about it. The PSUV has a huge majority in Parliament, so Capriles wouldn't accomplish anything. Given the extensive state control over the media, it'd be incredibly easy for the PSUV to drum up public opposition to Capriles and force a successful recall vote whenever they wanted. Maduro was picked as the placeholder because he was considered to be a soft-spoken an capable administrator-- given that he's clearly demonstrated this assessment was inaccurate, is it really a stretch to assume that PSUV leadership would pick a useless Capriles presidency to be preferable to an off-the-rails Maduro?

Not sure I even believe this myself, but it's a thought. It'd also explain why Capriles was summoned to meet with the Generals just before the results were announced, which as far as I know we never got an explanation for.

I certainly hope you are right. It does indeed make little sense for the Chavist clique to so eagerly support Maduro if they thought of him as a placeholder only.

Still, it doesn't really make sense that they would announce Maduro's victory and then backtrack to give Capriles the spot instead? It would also be an admission that there has been fraud, and I think the regime would want to avoid that.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: minionofmidas on April 19, 2013, 03:57:22 AM
So... the CNE has noticed by now that the opposition did not in fact have a coup prepared. Hope the government notices the same thing today.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 08:50:37 AM
They won't reverse the result. If they did push Maduro aside I'd assume either Adan Chavez, Cabello or Jorge whatisface would be their new choice. Perhaps a troika?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 12:28:59 PM
The audit will take a month, BTW. Shudder to think what the regime will do over that time.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 19, 2013, 02:25:27 PM
The audit will take a month, BTW. Shudder to think what the regime will do over that time.

It won't do anything if the opposition keeps calm and waits for official results. If the opposition wants to protest, they can. But they killed 7 people the other day, that's not pacific. If that happened anywhere in Europe, protest would be restrained as well.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 02:31:52 PM
Who killed 7 people?

Anyways, there was a massive security breach at the "inauguration." Some guy rushed the stage, pushed Maduro aside and shouted something into a microphone.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2013, 04:07:10 PM
Maduro in his "inaugural" speech: Dunno how long I'll be president.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Leftbehind on April 19, 2013, 05:49:06 PM

This seriously passed you by?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/04/16/uk-venezuela-election-idUKBRE93C0B220130416


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Hash on April 19, 2013, 05:51:22 PM

This seriously passed you by?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/04/16/uk-venezuela-election-idUKBRE93C0B220130416

We should take this with a grain of salt, perhaps, given that the government/chavistas lied about "opposition mobs" viciously attacking two outpatient clinics.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Leftbehind on April 19, 2013, 06:09:12 PM
Different kettle of fish claiming deaths, no? Namely there'd have to be victims bodies, evidence etc. This video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfZ7bDcSnaE) suggests the news are reporting on their deaths - wouldn't they playing them down as a nondescript statistic if they were false? Actually, are the opposition contesting them?


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 19, 2013, 07:53:18 PM

This seriously passed you by?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/04/16/uk-venezuela-election-idUKBRE93C0B220130416

According to some reports, the father of one of those 7, I believe, has said that his son was, indeed, killed - by the chavista thugs, as the two of them were together, protesting against the government victory declaration. So, at the very least, I'd be very cautious about bringing this up.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 19, 2013, 07:55:08 PM
Think this is one of those moments when facts become essentially partisan things. Better to treat everything with caution.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 19, 2013, 07:56:49 PM
Think this is one of those moments when facts become essentially partisan things. Better to treat everything with caution.

True. But, at least, one thing is not in question (since it has long been known): there is a side that has paramilitary groups at its disposal - and that side isn't the opposition. Nor is the opposition in the control of the military and/or law-enforcement.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 19, 2013, 08:01:00 PM
Think this is one of those moments when facts become essentially partisan things. Better to treat everything with caution.

True. But, at least, one thing is not in question (since it has long been known): there is a side that has paramilitary groups at its disposal - and that side isn't the opposition. Nor is the opposition in the control of the military and/or law-enforcement.

Of course, of course.


Title: Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election
Post by: ag on April 19, 2013, 08:03:18 PM
Different kettle of fish claiming deaths, no? Namely there'd have to be victims bodies, evidence etc. This video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfZ7bDcSnaE) suggests the news are reporting on their deaths - wouldn't they playing them down as a nondescript statistic if they were false? Actually, are the opposition contesting them?

From what I have seen, the opposition believes these to be caused by the government thugs.