Talk Elections

The 2014 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2014/pred.php)

Alaska- Sean Parnell 57% Scott McAdams 43%
Hawaii- Colleen Hanabusa- 63% Duke Aiona 30%
Oregon- John Kitzhaber 66% Bruce Hanna 31 %
California- Jerry Brown 52% Abel Maldonado 39%
Idaho (Primary) Raul Labrador 51% Butch Otter 47%
Nevada- Brian Sandoval 54% Steve Sisolak 42%
Arizona- Ken Bennett 49% Greg Stanton 47%
Wyoming (primary) Matt Mead 53% Cindy Hill 45%
Colorado- Cory Gardner 51% John Hickenlooper 49%
New Mexico- Susana Martinez 53%  Gary King 44%
South Dakota- Dennis Dauggard (Unopposed)
Nebraska- Pete Ricketts 59% Chris Buetler 38%
Kansas- Sam Brownback 72% Joe Reardon 19%
Oklahoma- Mary Fallin (unopposed)
Texas- Greg Abbott 59% Mike Villarreal 39%
Arkansas- Asa Hutchinson 65% Bill Halter 33%
Iowa- Chet Culver 50% Terry Branstad 49%
Minnesota- Mark Dayton 55% Julie Rosen 43%
Wisconsin- Scott Walker 51% Russ Feingold 48%
Illinois- Lisa Madigan 62% Aaron Schock 33%
Michigan- Rick Snyder 52% Gary Peters 47%
Ohio- EdFitzGerald 49% John Kasich 47%
Tennessee- Bill Haslam- 58% Craig Fitzhugh 41%
Alabama- Robert Bentley- 75% John Rogers 22%
Georgia- Nathan Deal 54% Kasim Reed 44%
South Carolina- Nikki Haley 58% Vincent Sheheen 40%
Florida- Charlie Crist 50% Rick Scott 49%
Maryland- Anthony Brown 68% Micheal Steele 28%
Pennsylvania- Allyson Schwartz 53% Tom Corbett 44%
New York- Andrew Cuomo 64% Marcus Molinario 31%
Connecticut- Chris Shays 52% Dan Malloy 48%
Rhode Island- Gina Raimondo 39% Lincon Chafee 35% Brendan Dohtery 26%
Massachusetts- Setti Warren  54% Richard Tsei 39%
New Hampshire- Maggie Hassan 52% Frank Giunta 47%
Vermont- Peter Shumlin (unopposed)
Maine- Eliot Cutler 35% Paul Lepage 33% Chellie Pingree 32%

My preliminary predictions:
Alabama: [Robert Bentley  (R Hold)
Alaska: Sean Parnell  (R Hold)
Arizona: Jan Brewer (R Hold)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R Gain)
California: Jerry Brown (D Hold)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D Hold)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D Hold)
Florida: Ron Klein (D Gain)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R Hold)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D Hold)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R Hold)
Illinois: Dan Rutherford (R Gain)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R Hold)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R Hold)
Maine: Eliot Cutler (I Gain)
Maryland: Anthony G. Brown (D Gain)
Massachusetts: Tim Murray (D Hold)
Michigan: Bill Schuette (R Hold)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D Hold)
Nebraska: Don Stenberg (R Hold)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D Hold)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R Hold)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D Hold)
Ohio: John Kasich (R Hold)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R Hold)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D Hold)
Pennsylvania: Mike Turzai (R Hold)
Rhode Island: John Robatille (R Gain)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R Hold)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R Hold)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R Hold)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R Hold)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D Hold)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R Hold)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R Hold)

It might be a bit optimistic, but I'll give it a try:

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R)
Arizona: Neil Giuliano (D)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R)
California: Jerry Brown(Gavin Newsom, if Brown declines to run) (D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut: Thomas C. Foley (R)
Florida: Alex Sink (D)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii: James Aiona (R)
Idaho: Raúl Labrador (R)
Illinois: Aaron Shock (R)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R)
Maine: Paul LePage (R)
Maryland: Michael Steele (R)
Massachusetts: Scott Brown (R)
Michigan: Stacy Erwin Oakes (D)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D)
Nebraska: Don Stenberg (R)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire: Charles Bass (R)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio: John Kasich (R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin(R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D)
Rhode Island: Patrick C. Lynch (D)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D)
Wisconsin: Russ Feingold (D)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R)

Flips in bold.

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R)
Arizona: Neil Giuliano (D)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R)
California: Jerry Brown (D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D)
Florida: Charlie Crist (D)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii: James Aiona (R)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R)
Illinois: Lisa Madigan (D)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R)
Maine: Paul LePage (R)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D)
Massachusetts: Scott Brown (R)
Michigan: Mark Schauer (D)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D)
Nebraska: Don Stenberg (R)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio: John Kasich (R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D)
Rhode Island: Patrick C. Lynch (D)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R)

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R)
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R)
Arkansas: Mike Ross (D)
California: Jerry Brown (D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D)
Florida: Rick Scott (R)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R)
Illinois: Lisa Madigan (D)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R)
Maine: Paul LePage (R)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D)
Massachusetts: Mike Capuano (D)
Michigan: Mark Schauer (D)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D)
Nebraska: Mike Foley (R)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio: John Kasich (R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R)

Agreed- too optimistic! Your Arkansas, Connecticut, and Massachusetts predictions are quite good, but your Hawaii, Illinois, and New Hampshire ones are laughable. Quinn is certainly vulnerable, but even Quinn would beat Schock. Remember that it's Illinois- moderate Republicans are formidable, but someone as conservative as Schock has no chance statewide. Dillard and Rutheford could definitely beat Quinn. However, the likelihood of Quinn even being in the race seems small. Daley v Dillard and Daley v Rutheford would be toss-up/lean D; Madigan v Dillard and Madigan v Rutheford would be Safe D.

Updated:
Alabama: Robert Bentley  (R Hold)
Alaska: Sean Parnell  (R Hold)
Arizona: Jan Brewer (R Hold)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R Gain)
California: Jerry Brown (D Hold)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D Hold)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D Hold)
Florida: Charlie Crist (D Gain)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R Hold)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D Hold)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R Hold)
Illinois: Bill Daley (D hold)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R Hold)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R Hold)
Maine: LePage (R Hold)
Maryland: Michael Steele (R Gain)
Massachusetts: Mike Cupuano (D Hold)
Michigan: Schauer (D Gain)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D Hold)
Nebraska: Don Stenberg (R Hold)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D Hold)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R Hold)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D Hold)
Ohio: John Kasich (R Hold)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R Hold)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D Hold)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D Gain)
Rhode Island: Dem Gain
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R Hold)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R Hold)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R Hold)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R Hold)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D Hold)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R Hold)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R Hold)

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R Hold)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R Hold)
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R Hold)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R Gain)
California: Jerry Brown (D Hold)**
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D Hold)
Connecticut: Tom Foley (R Gain)
Florida: Charlie Crist (D Gain)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R Hold)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D Hold)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R Hold)
Illinois: Lisa Madigan (D hold)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R Hold)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R Hold)
Maine: Eliot Cutler (I Gain)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D Hold)
Massachusetts: Mike Cupuano (D Hold)
Michigan: Mark Schauer (D Gain)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D Hold)
Nebraska: Don Stenberg (R Hold)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R Hold)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D Hold)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R Hold)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D Hold)
Ohio: John Kasich (R Hold)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R Hold)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D Hold)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D Gain)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D Gain)
South Carolina: Vincent Sheheen (D Gain)***
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R Hold)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R Hold)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R Hold)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D Hold)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R Hold)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R Hold)

Assuming McAuliffe and Christie win in 2013, this would result in a breakdown of 26 R 23 D 1 I

**Newsom or Harris if he retires, which I hope he does, but I bet he won't.

***I know it sounds ridiculous, but Haley beat Sheheen by a tiny margin in a very red state in a year that was very good for Republicans. Moreover, Sheheen has already declared his 2014 run, meaning he has more time to organize and build up name recognition. Finally, and foremost, Sheheen is ALREADY leading Haley, the incumbent Governor, by at least 2 points in every single poll between them.



I think these predictions gives a limited picture, because I am only naming one prediction, whereas it varies on a case by case basis based on who runs, who is nominated, etc. Therefore, I thought it would also be useful to include my breakdown regarding where the races fall party-wise:

Safe Democratic
California
Colorado
Oregon
Vermont
New York
Maryland
Minnesota

Likely Democratic
New Hampshire
Illinois
Hawaii
Rhode Island
Massachusetts

Lean Democratic
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Florida

Toss-Up
South Carolina
Arkansas
Maine
Connecticut

Lean Republican
Arizona
New Mexico
Nevada
Ohio
Georgia
Iowa

Likely Republican
Texas
Wisconsin

Safe Republican
Alabama
Alaska
Idaho
Kansas
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Tennessee
Wyoming
Nebraska

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Alabama: Robert Bentley (R Hold)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R Hold)
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R Hold)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R Gain)
California: Jerry Brown (D Hold)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D Hold)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D Hold)
Florida: Rick Scott (R Hold)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D Hold)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R Hold)
Illinois: Bill Daley (D Hold)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R Hold)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R Hold)
Maine: Paul LePage (R Hold)
Massachusetts: Mike Capuano (D Hold)
Michigan: Rick Snyder (R Hold)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D Hold)
Nebraska: Mike Flood (R Hold)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R Hold)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D Hold)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R Hold)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D Hold)
Ohio: John Kasich (R Hold)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R Hold)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D Hold)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D Gain)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D Hold)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R Hold)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R Hold)
Texas: Rick Perry (R Hold)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D Hold)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R Hold)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R Hold)

I hate to ask such a noob question, but when making my map am I required to submit responses for all 50 states? I'd rather not make uneducated guesses on states whose internal politics I'm not familiar with. If not, I suppose it's a good incentive to learn :D

You can make your map the way you want but you will be scored at the end. It is just for fun anyways.

I'll agree with NH (Bass strikes me more as someone who's more interested in Senate than Governorship, plus Hassan has been doing a good job anyway), but I firmly disagree on Hawaii and Illinois. Abercrombie and Quinn are HATED, and Quinn is running. Madigan was never really chomping at the bit, and Daley declaring leads me to believe that Madigan isn't interested at all. Probably raising money for a future run (maybe 2016?). Daley will have a rougher time getting past Quinn (although if he does the race Leans Democratic), and if he doesn't, the only thing that can save him is Rutherford's awkward speaking skills and general lack of savvy (from what I've heard). Djou is more moderate (no idea about Aiona, haven't looked much into him).

Daley will be running as the populist. Giving Chicago gaming by installing slots at two airports, not the big casino (des plaines and Elgin have one already) to fix education. Meanwhile, fix pension and rescind tax increases. All ideas Rutherford support but defund edu and give vouchers to private schools. And slow growth of spending. No need for him at all.

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R Hold)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R Hold)
Arizona: Greg Stanton (D Gain)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R Gain)
California: Jerry Brown (D Hold)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D Hold)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D Hold)
Florida: Alex Sink (D Gain)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R Hold)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D Hold)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R Hold)
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D hold)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R Hold)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R Hold)
Maine: Elliot Cutler (I Gain)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D Hold)
Massachusetts: Mike Cupuano (D Hold)
Michigan: Mark Schauer (D Gain)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D Hold)
Nebraska: Don Stenberg (R Hold)
Nevada: Barbara Buckley (D Gain) [I think it will be close in the polls, and she pulls off an upset.]
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D Hold)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R Hold)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D Hold)
Ohio: Ted Strickland (D Gain)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R Hold)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D Hold)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D Gain)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D Gain)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R Hold)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R Hold)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R Hold)
Texas: Wendy Davis (D Gain)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D Hold)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R Hold)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R Hold)

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(If you haven't noticed, I think Democrats are going to have a splendid midterm)

AL: Robert Bentley (R Hold)
AK: Sean Parnell (R-Hold)
AZ: Greg Stanton (D-Pickup!)
AR: Asa Hutchinson (R-Pickup!)
CA: Jerry Brown (D-Hold)
CO: John Hickenlooper (D-Hold)
CT: Tom Foley (R-Pickup!)
FL: Charlie Crist (D-Pickup!)
HI: Neil Abercrombie (D-Hold)
ID: Butch Otter (R-Hold)
IL: Lisa Madigan (D-Hold)
IA: Terry Branstad (R-Hold)
KS: Sam Brownback (R-Hold)
ME: Paul LePage (R-Hold)
MD: Anthony Brown (D-Hold)
MA: Mike Capuano (D-Hold)
MI: Mark Schauer (D-Pickup!)
MN: Mark Dayton (D-Hold)
NE: Don Stenberg (R-Hold)
NV: Brian Sandoval (R-Hold)
NH: Maggie Hassan (D-Hold)
NM: Susana Martinez (R-Hold)
NY: Andrew Cuomo (D-Hold)
OH: John Kasich (R-Hold)
OK: Mary Fallin (R-Hold)
OR: John Kitzhaber (D-Hold)
PA: Allyson Schwartz (D-Pickup!)
RI: Gina Raimondo (D-Hold)
SC: Nikki Haley (R-Hold)
SD:Dennis Daugaard (R-Hold)
TN: Bill Haslam (R-Hold)
TX: Greg Abbott (R-Hold)
VT: Peter Shumlin (D-Hold)
WI: Scott Walker (R-Hold)
WY: Matt Mead (R-Hold)

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R)
California: Jerry Brown (D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D)
Florida: Charlie Christ (D)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R)
Maine: Eliot Cutler (I)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D)
Massachusetts: Mike Capuano (D)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio: John Kasich (R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R)

I assume Quinn will defeat him in the primaries.

There is no division in Illinois. We want to win badly and we will unite behind our nominee.

Any chance Brownback can be taken down?

2014 will be a Democratic year, but probably not in Texas and Nevada. I'm not counting out Davis, but with Abbott running, Texas is really a long shot for the Democrats and they'll have to wait until at least 2018 (maybe 2022 if Abbott would seek a 2nd term). As for Nevada, Sandoval's sort of like Gov. Martinez (even though ones pro-life, the other isn't). They're both Hispanic which significantly helps them among their base next year for re-election in NV and NM plus I just don't see anything the Democrats could use against Gov. Sandoval that could decrease his popularity enough to make this a lean Democratic race let alone anywhere close to a tossup since he's leading by about 23 points. And in Ohio, Ted Strickland has already declared he's not running, but he has endorsed a very formidable and progressive candidate in Ed FitzGerald who still has a pretty good chance at unseating Kasich.

@IllegalOperation - Doubt it. Had that been Tom Holland with the mid 30's approval rating, it would be a sure pickup for the GOP, but just because Brownback has the name "Republican" in front of his affiliation in a state like Kansas, he'll survive.

Even though I would vote for Wendy Davis enthusiastically against Greg Abbott, I doubt that she would even come close to winning. I think that if she received the nomination for Texas governor, Greg Abbott would ultimately win with around 60% of the vote, as the Christian Right would campaign hard for Abbott due to Davis' filibuster of the anti-abortion bill that the Texas state legislature attempted to pass back in June.

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Prediction: 18 Democratic wins/18 Republican wins
After 2014: 25 Governor's seats held by Democrats (Counting Virginia)/25 Governor's seats held by Republicans

Net gain: D +5

Alabama Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Robert J. Bentley (R) - Safe R hold
Alaska Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Sean Parnell (R) - Safe R hold
Arizona Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Republican candidate (Ken Bennett) (TOSSUP)
Arkansas Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Republican candidate (Asa Hutchinson) (TOSSUP)
California Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Jerry Brown (D) - Safe D hold
Colorado Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Gov. Dan Malloy (D)
Florida Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Charlie Crist) (TOSSUP)
Georgia Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) - Safe D hold
Idaho Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Butch Otter (R) - Safe R hold (Surprise, surprise....)
Illinois Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Gov. Pat Quinn (D) (TOSSUP)
Iowa Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Gov. Sam Brownback (R)
Maine Margin of Victory: 30% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Mike Michaud) (TOSSUP)
Maryland Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Anthony Brown)
Massachusetts Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (TBD)
Michigan Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Mark Schauer) (TOSSUP)
Minnesota Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Mark Dayton (D) - Safe D hold
Nebraska Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for the Republican candidate (TBD) - Safe R hold
Nevada Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) - Safe D hold
New Mexico Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Susana Martinez (R)
New York Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) - Safe D hold
Ohio Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Ed FitzGerald) (TOSSUP)
Oklahoma Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Mary Fallin (R) - Safe R hold
Oregon Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) - Safe D hold
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Allyson Schwartz) (TOSSUP)
Rhode Island Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (TBD)
South Carolina Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Gov. Nikki Haley (R) (TOSSUP)
South Dakota Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) - Safe R hold
Tennessee Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Bill Haslam (R) - Safe R hold
Texas Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Republican candidate (Greg Abbott)
Vermont Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Peter Shumlin (D) - Safe D hold
Wisconsin Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Scott Walker (R)
Wyoming Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Matt Mead (R)


Arizona - With Campbell dropping out and Bennett running, Arizona Republicans really don't even need the incumbent Brewer to hold onto the seat. I don't think the Hispanic population will be enough in 2014 yet for a Democrat to win the Governor's seat until 2022. Tilts R.

Arkansas - Ross might be a Bluedog, but everything is favoring Hutchinson at this point. It's a midterm year with higher white turnout, there's no incumbency advantage this time like Beebe had, and Hutchinson is holding an 8 point lead over Ross. I still think it could be a tossup, but it favors the Republicans here as well.

Colorado - The fact that Sen. Mark Udall will be on the same ballot will help out Gov. Hickenlooper a lot. The only real threat he even faces at this point is Tancredo and there's not even a guarantee he'll win the primary. Colorado's dissatisfaction will probably blow over by the 2014 election and by then, Hickenlooper should have his approval back in the 50's guaranteeing him re-election. Leans D for now.

Connecticut/Illinois - If Malloy and Quinn can beat their Republican opponents once, they can beat them again this time being the incumbents. Their approvals are bound to get better and I also doubt that the Quinnipiac Foley +3 poll or the PPP Rutherford +4 poll are all that accurate either anymore. Tilt D.

Florida - We need Crist, period. Nelson and Sink have dropped out and I doubt Nan Rich could pull it off, so Charlie Crist is the Democratic Party's last hope at beating Scott. Leans D if Crist is the nominee, Tilts R if Nan Rich is the nominee.

Georgia - It would be best if the Democrats just gave up on this race altogether and wait until 2018 when Deal is term-limited to get someone like Barrow or Reed to run. You guys are better off working on this Senate race a lot more because that's at least winnable. I don't even think Carter or Holcomb will come close if either one of them decides to run. Safe R.

Iowa - All depends on Branstad. Not even Culver can beat him, but if Branstad finally steps down for good and Reynolds runs, this is a great race to watch then even if the worst is assumed by the Iowa Democrats (Culver declines a run and Olson or Hatch becomes nominee). Likely R w/ a Branstad run, Tilts R with a Reynolds run.

Kansas - With Paul Davis in, this makes the race interesting. They might be heavily Republican, but Davis is backed by the popular Sebelius and he has great name recognition as the Democratic leader of the Kansas House of Reps on top of an unpopular Brownback. Still lean R though.

Maine - Paul "Windmills are a Conspiracy" LePage is his own worst enemy. He's literally asking to be unseated next year in Maine so he can try and be in Congress in the future which are just his own petty thoughts. Cutler shouldn't matter at this point and while I like his views more than Michaud's, Michaud is better than nothing. Tossup/Tilt D.

Maryland/Massachusetts - The Republicans really don't stand a chance at either one given Brown/Ulman and Coakley or Capuano are great candidates for the Democrats on top of both states being reliably Democratic (despite the history Massachusetts has of electing GOP Governor's). I still completely disagree with Sabato though about these either being a "lean" or a complete "tossup" and I'm going with Cook on these when I say they're likely Democratic.

Michigan - 2 things: Right to Work and Detroit. Snyder might have the advantage currently, but the polls are flopping all over the place with some having Rep. Schauer leading and others having Gov. Snyder leading. This is just a pure, pure tossup and since I watch MSNBC regularly, I expect Ed Schultz to actually play a huge part in trying to get the Michigan electorate out there and throwing out Snyder. #UnionRights #EdShow

Nevada - When Buckley dropped out, this race was dropped to. There's just no other Democrat that could beat someone as popular and moderate as Gov. Sandoval especially given his good relations with the large Hispanic base there. Safe R.

New Mexico - To be fair, even though her approval rating is high, a poll for this race hasn't been done in over a year and Attorney General Gary King is a great candidate which Nevada can't offer. It's Lean R for now until a new poll comes out that says otherwise.

Ohio - Just like in 2010, this is going to be one of the closest and most brutal Governor's races the country has to offer. Ed FitzGerald is campaigning a lot harder than Ohioans thought he would and is attacking the state of Ohio's economy. 47th in job creation, unemployment rose from 7.0% to 7.3% in a matter of a few months, poverty's increasing, and he's focusing heavily on JobsOhio and Kasich's tax breaks for the wealthy. It's like a fuse almost. And that stick of dynamite will explode if Kasich attempts to pass that suicidal 6 week abortion ban bill into law which would just hand FitzGerald the election. Total tossup at this time though (aside from Sabato who are stupidly calling it likely Republican still).

Pennsylvania - A 16% approval?! Really? That's nearly as bad as Congress.....leans D.

Rhode Island - Whether it's Raimondo, Taveras, or maybe Roberts, the withdrawal of Gov. Chafee from the race ruined what little chances Republicans had here. Likely D.

South Carolina - Haley automatically benefits being the incumbent in a red state, but Sheheen is a great candidate. He came close in 2010 at winning despite it being the GOP year, it being SC, and being on the same ballot as Sen. Jim DeMint. Plus with that recent SSM comment, although I don't support his view on it, I feel Sheheen would be the kind of guy who would support same-sex marriage, but if he did, it would ruin any chances he has. Sheheen can't win it, but Haley can ruin it for herself to make it so he wins. Tilt R/Leans R

Texas - No matter what Wendy Davis' decision is come October 3rd, it won't make a difference. Going in, as long as Perry or Abbott ended up running this was guaranteed to be a strong R hold. 2022. Safe R.

Wisconsin - If Barca considers a run, this race will be competitive, but very hard for a Democrat to win nonetheless with Feingold opting out and the Walker system. Leans R.

Wyoming - There's only 1 possible way Democrats can win this. Mead opts out of a run or is thrown out of office by the courts and Cindy Hill is unopposed in the GOP primary. And since Freudenthal can't run, the only hope is that Democratic businessman, Gary Trauner, would make a run against Hill. However, since that's highly unlikely...safe R.

Before Strickland or Kasich ever took office, a lot of our Governor's (Taft, Voinovich, Celeste) all were two-term incumbents. And it's not like Governor Strickland's one-term was expected because he lost a close, close election by only 2 points. If they can actually do their job right the first 4 years without getting in any sort of scandal or losing hundreds of thousands of jobs, then a Governor, Republican or Democrat, can survive re-election in Ohio. I think Kasich will fall making it 2 in a row, but when Ed FitzGerald goes up for re-election in 2018, he could very well break that trend.

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R) --> Safe R
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R) --> Safe R
Arizona: Republican (R) --> Lean R
Arkansas: Asa Hutchison (R) --> Lean R
California: Jerry Brown (D) --> Safe D
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D) --> Lean D
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D) --> Lean D
Florida: Charlie Crist (D) --> Lean D
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R) --> Likely R
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D) --> Likely D
Idaho: Butch Otter (R) --> Safe R
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) --> Lean D
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R) --> Likely R
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R) --> Likely R
Maine: Michael Michaud (D) --> Toss-Up
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) --> Likely D
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D) --> Likely D
Michigan: Rick Snyder (R) --> Toss-Up
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) --> Likely D
Nebraska: Republican (R) --> Safe R
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) --> Likely R
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) --> Likely D
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R) --> Likely R
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D) --> Safe D
Ohio: John Kasich (R) --> Lean R
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R) --> Safe R
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) --> Safe D
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D) --> Lean D
Rhode Island: Democrat (D) --> Likely D
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R) --> Likely R
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R) --> Safe R
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R) --> Safe R
Texas: Greg Abbott (R) --> Safe R
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) --> Safe D
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R) --> Lean R
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R) --> Safe R

Here's my profile governor prediction (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2014/pred.php?action=indpred&id=449)

For a net gain of D+2 (28-22). These are obviously subject to change, and we're likely to have more unexpected and unpredictable races here than anywhere else.

Update: Moving SC from Lean R to Likely R

Updated predictions (without numbers this time)

Alabama- Robert Bentley (R)
Alaska- Sean Parnell (R)
Arizona- Al Melvin (R)
Arkansas- Asa Hutchinson (R)
California- Jerry Brown (D)
Colorado- John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut- Chris Shays (R)
Florida- Charlie Crist/Nan Rich (D)
Georgia- Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii- David Ige (D)
Idaho- Russell Fulcher (R)
Illinois- Bruce Rauner (R)
Iowa- Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas- Sam Brownback (R)
Maine- Mike Michaud (D)
Maryland- Heather Mizuer (D)
Massachusetts- Steven Grossman (D)
Michigan- Rick Snyder (R)
Minnesota- Mark Dayton (D)
Nebraska- Pete Ricketts (R)
Nevada- Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire- Maggie Hassan (D)
New Mexico- Susana Martinez (R)
New York- Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio- Ed FitzGerald (D)
Oklahoma- Mary Fallin (R)
Oregon- John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania- Allyson Schwartz (D)
Rhode Island Clay Pell (D)
South Carolina- Nikki Haley (R)
South Dakota- Dennis Dauggard (R)
Tennesee- Bill Haslam (R)
Texas- Greg Abbott (R)
Vermont- Peter Shumlin (D)
Wisconsin- Scott Walker (R)
Wyoming- Cyndi Hill (R)

Net result is D+1

Alabama: Gov. Robert Bentley (R) - Safe R
Alaska: Gov. Sean Parnell (R) - Safe R
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R) - Tilt R (We really need some polling here)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R) - Tossup
California: Gov. Jerry Brown (D) - Safe D
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D) - Lean D
Connecticut: Gov. Dan Malloy (D) - Tilt D
Florida: Charlie Crist (D) - Lean D
Georgia: Gov. Nathan Deal (R) - Lean R
Hawaii: Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) - Likely D
Idaho: Gov. Butch Otter (R) - Safe R (Watch the nominee end up being a mediator or real estate agent lol)
Illinois: Gov. Pat Quinn (D) - Tilt D
Iowa: Gov. Terry Branstad (R) - Lean R
Kansas: Paul Davis (D) - Tossup (It will be close, but Davis has an early 4 point advantage which I think can hold)
Maine: Mike Michaud (D) - Tossup
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) - Safe D
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D) - Likely D
Michigan: Mark Schauer (D) - Tossup (1. The large Snyder leads are absurd  2. Schauer like FitzGerald just has a name recognition problem he can solve)
Minnesota: Gov. Mark Dayton (D) - Safe D
Nebraska: Charlie Janssen (R) - Likely R
Nevada: Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) - Safe R
New Hampshire: Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) - Safe D
New Mexico: Gov. Susana Martinez (R) - Lean R (King will be a strong challenger to her)
New York: Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) - Safe D
Ohio: Ed FitzGerald (D) - Tossup (As the Ohio economy grows worse, more people will shift towards FitzGerald as Kasich's approval goes lower into the 30s)
Oklahoma: Gov. Mary Fallin (R) - Safe R
Oregon: Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) - Safe D
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D) - Lean D
Rhode Island: Angel Taveras (D) - Likely D
South Carolina: Gov. Nikki Haley (R) - Tilt R (Two polls show Haley leads while two show Sheheen leads, but Haley has a small advantage)
South Dakota: Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) - Safe R (Should be interesting to see if Sandlin runs)
Tennessee: Gov. Bill Haslam (R) - Safe R
Texas: Greg Abbott (R) - Likely R
Vermont: Gov. Peter Shumlin (D) - Likely D (In case the Progressive Party throws in a candidate)
Wisconsin: Gov. Scott Walker (R) - Tossup (Along with OH and MI, this will be one of the closest)
Wyoming: Gov. Matt Mead (R) - Safe R

D+5, Democrats I'm predicting will hold 26 Governor seats and Republicans 21 seats after the 2014 midterms. After 2015 it might be the same to since Repubs. have a term-limited seat with a very unpopular Governor in Louisiana while there's a term-limited Democrat in GOP favoring Kentucky.

I like you prediction Adam, it is a bit to optimistic for the dems except in one state where they most likely can win.  Arkansas should be Mike Ross Tossup.

I'm not so sure about the Republican pickup in Colorado especially if Tancredo is the nominee, but I agree with everything else including Fitzy 2014!!!

@JerryArkansas, I'm predicting a lot of these based off of polls, the states of the economy, approvals, scandals, how well each candidate is known etc. and a lot of the things I mentioned here adhere to the benefit of gubernatorial Democratic nominees. Mainly only people in Schauer's district know who he is while only people in Cuyahoga County know who FitzGerald is and barely anyone knows who Burke is. Once they get ads out and running and run on positive, progressive, anti-Tea Party platforms, at least two of them will probably end of winning.

Mike Ross on the other hand has an uphill climb with Hutchinson having a 2 point lead over him when Beebe has a high approval. Pryor certainly won't help Ross on the ballot much and neither will Obama. I feel unless Ross gets Clinton's endorsement, it will definitely benefit Republicans to win back the Governorship.

You have to remember one thing about Hutchison, he has a checkered past and his family history will not help in this race.  Ross also has low name rec, which will go up.  He also is almost going to get the endorsement of clinton.

These are my predictions as of December 24, 2013.

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R) def. Craig Ford (D)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R) def. Ethan Berkowitz (D)
Arizona: Ken Bennett def. Fred DuVal (D)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R) def. Mike Ross (D)
California: Jerry Brown (D) def. Abel Maldonado (R)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D) def. Tom Tancredo (R)
Connecticut: Thomas Foley (R) def. Dan Malloy (D)
Florida: Charlie Crist (D) def. Rick Scott (R)
Georgia: Jason Carter (D) def. Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D) def. Generic Rep. Opponent
Idaho: Butch Otter (R) def. Generic Dem. Opponent
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) def. Bruce Rauner (R)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R) def. Jack Hatch (D)
Kansas: Paul Davis (D) def. Sam Brownback (R)
Maine: Mike Michaud (D) def. Paul LePage (R), Eliot Cutler (I)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) def. David Craig (R)
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D) def. Charles Baker, Jr. (R)
Michigan: Rick Snyder (R) def. Mark Schauer (D)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) def. Kurt Zellers (R)
Nebraska: Charlie Janssen (R) def. Chuck Hassebrook (D)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) def. Steve Sisolak (D)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) def. Generic Rep. Opponent
New Mexico: Susana Martinez def. Gary King (D)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D) def. Rob Astorino (R)
Ohio: John Kasich (R) def. Ed Fitzgerald (D)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R) def. Joe Dorman (D)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) def. Generic Rep. Opponent
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D) def. Tom Corbett (R)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D) def. Allan Fung (R)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R) def. Vincent Sheheen (D)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R) def. Generic Dem. Opponent
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R) def. Sara Kyle (D)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R) def. Wendy Davis (D)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) def. Generic Rep. Opponent
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R) def. Mary Burke (D)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R) def. Generic Dem. Opponent

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R)
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R)
California: Jerry Brown (D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D)
Florida: Charlie Crist (D)
Georgia:Nathan Deal (D)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R)
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R)
Maine: Mike Michaud (D)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D)
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D)
Michigan: Mark Shauer (D)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D)
Nebraska: Tom Carlson (R)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio: John Kasich (R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin(R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D)
South Carolina: Vincent Shaheen (D)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R)

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R)
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R)
California: Jerry Brown (D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D)
Florida: Charlie Crist (D)
Georgia: Jason Carter (D)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R)
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R)
Maine: Mike Michaud (D)
Maryland: Anthiny Brown (D)
Massachusetts: Charles Baker (R)
Michigan: Mark Shauer (D)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D)
Nebraska: Tom Carlson (R)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio: John Kasich (R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin(R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D)
Rhode Island: Allan Fung (R)
South Carolina: Vincent Shaheen (D)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R)

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchison (R)
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R)
California: Jerry Brown (D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D)
Florida: Charlie Christ (D)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R)
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R)
Maine: Mike Michaud (D)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D)
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D)
Michigan: Mark Schauer (D)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D)
Nebraska: Jon Bruning
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio: John Kasich (R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R)

Overall: D+3

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R Hold)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R Hold)
Arizona: Jan Brewer (R Hold)
Arkansas: Mike Ross (D Hold) - (My current view is that it just leans Democrat, its very close)
California: Jerry Brown (D Hold)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D Hold)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D Hold) - (Tight Race, but end of the day Connecticut is a blue state and will reelect Malloy)
Florida: Charlie Crist (D Gain) - (Rick Scott is just too unpopular to be re-elected and every poll he is behind)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R Hold) - (Jason Carter could give Governor Deal a run for his money but I think he will fall short)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D Hold)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R Hold)
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D hold) - ( Very unpopular governor, but Illinois is a strong Democratic state and despite his unpopularity the GOP challengers have not managed to gain a solid lead against him)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R Hold)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R Hold)
Maine: Mike Michaud (D Gain) - (Governor Le Page is hugely unpopular, but this is only Lean Democrat due to Elliot Cutter splitting the progressive vote)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D Hold)
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D Hold)
Michigan: Rick Snyder (R Hold)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D Hold)
Nebraska: Don Stenberg (R Hold)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R Hold)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D Hold)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R Hold)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D Hold)
Ohio: John Kasich (R Hold) -(Lean R but I will keep a close eye on this one)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R Hold)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D Hold)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D Gain) - (Another unpopular GOP governor, I think Corbett will struggle badly)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D Hold)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R Hold) - (Vincent Shaheen could give her a close race though, only leans R)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R Hold)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R Hold)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R Hold) - (I still want to wait a bit on this race though because it is special)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D Hold)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R Hold)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R Hold)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=187007.0

May be a bad poll, but they've definitely managed to worry the dems about this race.


What's special about it? The fact that democrats got a star candidate they wanted? I don't think this will be any different when it comes to the result.

It's time to update...

Alabama- Robert Bentley (I wouldn't be too shocked if Stacey George or Bob Starkey pulled off an upset in the primary, but they too would easily win the general election)
Alaska-Sean Parnell
Arizona-Al Melvin (Wouldn't be stunned if Ducey, Bennett, or Smith won the primary... As for the General, Republicans are favored here, because of the political climate, more than anything else)
Arkansas Debra Hobbs (Asa Hutchinson has a glass jaw, he'll lose the primary... but that won't matter for the General, Arkansas is shifting that quickly)
California  Jerry Brown
Colorado Scott Gessler (Hickenlooper's more likely to feel the backlash from Colorado's gun laws than, Udall)
Connecticut  Chris Shays (Shays is probably the only Republican who can beat Malloy)
Florida Nan Rich/Charlie Crist (The Winner of the Democratic Primary will beat Rick Scott)
Georgia Nathan Deal (Jason Carter is a very strong candidate, but Democrats have a better chance in the Senate race)
Hawaii Neil Abercrombie
Idaho Russell Fulcher (This is a Governor's race the Tea Party can focus on)
Illinois Dan Rutherford (Picking the GOP primary is going to be a crapshoot, but I think we can agree Quinn is a heavy underdog)
Iowa Terry Branstad
Kansas Paul Davis (You try winning re-election with a 35% approval rating)
Mike Michaud (I actually think Cutler will barely squeak past Lepage for second)
MarylandHeather Mizeur (Am I the only person underestimating Mizeur in the Democratic primary?)
Massachusetts Martha Coakley
Michigan Mark Schauer
Minnesota Mark Dayton
NebraskaPete Ricketts
Nevada Brian Sandoval
New HampshireMaggie Hassan
New Mexico Gary King (Upset Special)
New York Andrew Cuomo (Whenever he announces, although if he wants to run in 2016, I think he'd be better off retiring)
Ohio John Kasich
Oklahoma Mary Fallin
Oregon John Kitzhaber
PennsylvaniaAllyson Schwartz (Corbett is deep trouble)
Rhode IslandAngel Tavares
South Carolina  Nikki Haley
South Dakota Dennis Dauggard
Tennessee Bill Haslam
Texas Greg Abbott
Vermont Peter Shumlin
Wisconsin Scott Walker
Wyoming Cindy Hill

likely-to-solid Dems pickup in:

Pennsylvania
Florida
Michigan
Maine (Thank god. Good riddance, Paul LePage)

There's a chance Dems might pickup in:

Texas
Arizona
Ohio
Wisconsin

Solid Republican pickup:

Arkansas

There's a chance for a Republican pickup:

Colorado
Minnesota

Solid D
Pennsylvania
Maine (Thank god. Good riddance, Paul LePage)

There's a chance Dems might pickup in:
Michigan
Florida

Solid Republican pickup:

Arkansas

There's a chance for a Republican pickup:

Colorado
Hawaii
Illinois

Update:

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Rhode Island: Likely --> Safe D
Maryland: Likely --> Safe D
Illinois: Lean D --> Toss-Up
Arkansas: Lean R --> Toss-Up
Michigan: Toss-Up --> Lean R
Kansas: Safe --> Likely R

I could probably move Pennsylvania to Likely D now, but I'll wait.

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchison (R)
Arizona: Christine Jones (R)
California: Jerry Brown (D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D)
Florida: Charlie Christ (D)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii: David Ige (D)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R)
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R)
Maine: Michael Michaud (D)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D)
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D)
Michigan: Mark Schauer (D)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D)
Nebraska: Jon Bruning
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio: John Kasich (R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf (D)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R)

Thanks to angryGreatness for his list, as it's by and large mine.

I did change some primary outcomes, which include:

Tom Wolf winning the Democratic Primary in Pennsylvania.

David Ige   winning against Neil Abercrombie in the Democratic Primary in Hawaii.

UPDATE:
Alabama: Robert Bentley (R) SAFE R
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R) SAFE R
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R) LEAN R
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R)TOSSUP
California: Jerry Brown (D)SAFE D
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)LEAN D
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D) TOSSUP
Florida: Charlie Crist (D) LEAN D
Georgia:Nathan Deal (R) LEAN R
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D) LIKELY D
Idaho: Butch Otter (R) SAFE R
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) TOSSUP
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R) SAFE R
Kansas: Paul Davis (D) TOSSUP
Maine: Mike Michaud (D) LEAN D
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) SAFE D
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D) SAFE D
Michigan: Mark Shauer (D) TOSSUP
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) SAFE D
Nebraska: Tom Carlson (R) SAFE R
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) SAFE R
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) SAFE D
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R) SAFE R
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D) SAFE D
Ohio: John Kasich (R) LIKELY R
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin(R) SAFE R
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) SAFE D
Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf (D) LEAN D
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D) LIKELY D
South Carolina: Vincent Shaheen (D) TOSSUP
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R) SAFE R
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R) SAFE R
Texas: Greg Abbott (R) LIKELY R
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) SAFE D
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R) LEAN R
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R) SAFE R

A net gain of D+5

I'm going to do a complete update, re-link to signature, and add percentages to Illinois and Texas since candidates are determined. In some of these I'm also predicting who is going to win the non-incumbent primary, which I could be certainly wrong on, particularly for Nebraska, Rhode Island, and Arizona.

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R) - Safe R
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R) - Safe R
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R) - Lean R
*Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R) - Toss-Up
California: Jerry Brown (D) - Safe D
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D) - Lean D
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D) - Lean D
*Florida: Charlie Crist (D) - Lean D
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R) - Lean R
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D) - Likely D
Idaho: Butch Otter (R) - Safe R
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) - 49%, Bruce Rauner (R) - 47%. Toss-Up
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R) - Likely R
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R) - Likely R
*Maine: Mike Michaud (D) - Lean D
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) - Safe D
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D) - Likely D
Michigan: Rick Snyder (R) - Lean R
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) - Safe D
Nebraska: Pete Ricketts (R) - 60%, Chuck Hassebrook (D) - 38%. Safe R
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) - Likely R
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) - Safe D
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R) - Likely R
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D) - Safe D
Ohio: John Kasich (R) - 52%, Ed FitzGerald (D) - 47%. Lean R
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R) - Safe R
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) - Safe D
*Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf (D) - Likely D
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D) - Safe D
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R) - Likely R
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R) - Safe R
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R) - Safe R
Texas: Greg Abbott - 56%, Wendy Davis - 42%. Safe R
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) - Safe D
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R) - Lean R
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R) - Safe R

* Pickup

Net D+2, for a 27-23 R spread for governors of America.

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Democrats:25(+4) Republicans:25(-4)

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UPDATE:
Alabama: Robert Bentley (R) SAFE R
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R) SAFE R
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R) LEAN R
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R)TOSSUP
California: Jerry Brown (D)SAFE D
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)LEAN D
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D) TOSSUP
Florida: Charlie Crist (D) LEAN D
Georgia:Nathan Deal (R) LEAN R
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D) LIKELY D
Idaho: Butch Otter (R) SAFE R
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) TOSSUP
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R) SAFE R
Kansas: Paul Davis (D) TOSSUP
Maine: Mike Michaud (D) LEAN D
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) SAFE D
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D) SAFE D
Michigan: Rick Snyder (R) TOSSUP
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) SAFE D
Nebraska: Tom Carlson (R) SAFE R
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) SAFE R
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) SAFE D
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R) SAFE R
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D) SAFE D
Ohio: John Kasich (R) LIKELY R
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin(R) SAFE R
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) SAFE D
Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf (D) LEAN D
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D) LIKELY D
South Carolina: Vincent Shaheen (D) TOSSUP
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R) SAFE R
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R) SAFE R
Texas: Greg Abbott (R) SAFE R
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) SAFE D
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R) TOSSUP
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R) SAFE R

A net gain of D+4

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R) - Safe R (His toughest opposition will be in the primary anyways)

Alaska: Sean Parnell (R) - Safe R (The GOP vote is being split quite a bit among all candidates, but Parnell will still win decisively)

Arizona: Ken Bennett (R) - Tossup (Whoever arises from the GOP primary will be weakened, but DuVal isn't the best Democratic challenger and the state is still taking time to shift)

Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R) - Tossup (It will be close right down to the end, but it is Arkansas and as long as some anti-Obama politician has an "R' for their party affiliation, it could be that easy especially when Ross isn't an incumbent and is stuck on the ballot with Pryor)

California: Jerry Brown (D) - Safe D (Not that this race was in play to begin with, but Maldonado would have been a better candidate than Donnelly)

Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D) - Likely D (Hickenlooper is recovering and unlike CO-Sen, the Republican bench is embarrassing)

Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D) - Lean D (It really won't be that competitive even if Foley becomes the nominee since he beat him in 2010, the undecided will break for Malloy, and Malloy is becoming a nationally known and acclaimed Democratic star)

Florida: Charlie Crist (D) - Lean D (Scott isn't leading in a single poll and despite liberals being unhappy with him, he'll the lesser of the 2 evils for voters to decide between)

Georgia: Nathan Deal (R) - Lean R (Carter is a phenomenal candidate and a good fundraiser and can attack Deal on snowgate, the segregated prom, and failure to expand Medicaid, but the state like AZ is still too conservative and won't get good turnout from Atlanta like Abrams could have)

Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D) - Lean D (Aiona lost to Abercrombie by 17 points in 2010, so I don't consider the poll where Aiona is leading reliable especially when it's Hawaii of all places, but nonetheless is still vulnerable)

Idaho: Butch Otter (R) - Safe R (I would personally like to see how much of a threat Fulcher will be in the primary)

Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) - Tossup (Rauner hurt his chances big time when he made the minimum wage flop and will be painted as another Mitt Romney, but Quinn is still a lot weaker than Malloy)

Iowa: Terry Branstad (R) - Safe R (Hoefling isn't a threat and he'll beat Hatch decisively)

Kansas: Sam Brownback (R) - Tossup (Unfortunately, like IL, the state's just too polarizing no matter how unpopular the incumbent is and Kansans I bet would rather than some Tea Party far-right loon than a liberal as their Governor)

Maine: Mike Michaud (D) - Tossup/Tilt D (LePage's toxicness might be enough for Michaud to win (and break 40%) even with Cutler trying to ruin everything)

Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) - Safe D (>Sabato's ranking)

Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D) - Likely D (Coakley isn't Sink and I feel pretty confident that she can beat Baker)

Michigan: Mark Schauer (D) - Tossup (He's getting a significant amount of help from the DGA and once he starts getting his name out there and attacking Snyder for right-to-work and the abortion insurance bill, cutting school funding, and failing to provide assistance to Detroit, he could narrowly win)

Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) - Safe D (I think he has close to if not a 60% approval rating, so he's not going anywhere anytime soon)

Nebraska: Jon Bruning (R) - Likely R (Simply because I want mah polls and Hassebrook really isn't that bad of a candidate while Bruning's pretty bad)

Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) - Safe R (lol at the no-name field of Democratic candidates)

New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) - Safe D (Weak GOP candidates and Hassan is a phenomenal Governor)

New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R) - Likely R (We really need to get an idea of what's going on here now given the stakes for 2016, it being a blue state with a strong Democratic challenger, and the last poll from 2 years ago having Martinez barely cracking 50%)

New York: Andrew Cuomo (D) - Safe D (Ugh)

Ohio: Ed FitzGerald (D) - Tossup (There's no way a race that's within 5 points with a little known Democratic challenger is "likely R" and FitzGerald has enough party and union support to help him attack Kasich for SB5 as well as his continued tax cuts for the wealthy, the fracking scandal, the fight for voting rights, and Kasich's attack on women's rights (I heard State Rep. Kris Jordan reintroduced the infamous Fetal Heartbeat Bill last week), so any favorable chances Kasich has in this race will be diminished by summertime. You heard it first from me).

Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R) - Safe R (Joe "Storm Shelter" Dorman stands no chance)

Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) - Safe D (The most interesting thing here is the name of Kitzhaber's perennial primary challenger)

Pennsylvania: Thomas Wolf (D) - Lean D (Unfortunate that he needs to use 8 figures of his own wealth to beat Schwartz)

Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D) - Likely D (It will be close, but I think she can beat out Taveras and Fung's chances of winning are low)

South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R) - Lean R (Haley's recovering and Sheheen while popular among moderates needs Haley to make a whole bunch of gaffes to win this)

South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R) - Safe R (Assuming Daugaard runs, he'll coast to re-election)

Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R) - Safe R (Impressively enough, still no Democratic challenger and his only GOP challenger is some raccoon abuser)

Texas: Greg Abbott (R) - Likely R (This is definitely an overrated race, but I don't think Abbott has it in full lock just yet)

Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) - Safe D (Yeah, I doubt that the Progressives will field a challenger now and even if they do, there wouldn't be strong enough Republican opposition)

Wisconsin: Mary Burke (D) - Tossup (I say this post-scandal leakage and the third times the charm to knock off Walker aka Mr. Ultrasound V2)

Wyoming: Matt Mead (R) - Safe R (Mead officially declared and Freudenthal can't even run anyways, so yeah)

So this is a net of D+4, Dems would hold 25 Governorships and Republicans 25.

Hutchinson R+1
Hickenlooper
Crist D+1
Ige
Quinn
Michaud D+1
Schauer D+1
Wolf D+1
Tavarez D+1

Alabama: Robert Bentley
Alaska: Sean Parnell
Arizona: Ken Bennett
Arkansas: Mike Ross
California: Jerry Brown
Colorado: John Hickenlooper
Connecticut: Dan Malloy
Florida: Rick Scott
Georgia: Nathan Deal
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie
Idaho: Butch Otter
Illinois: Bruce Rauner
Iowa: Terry Branstad
Kansas: Sam Brownback
Maine: Mike Michaud
Maryland: Anthony Brown
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley
Michigan: Rick Snyder
Minnesota: Mark Dayton
Nebraska: Jon Bruning
Nevada: Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan
New Mexico: Susana Martinez
New York: Andrew Cuomo
Ohio: John Kasich
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin
Oregon: John Kitzhaber
Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo
South Carolina: Nikki Haley
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard
Tennessee: Bill Haslam
Texas: Greg Abbott
Vermont: Pete Shumlin
Wisconsin: Scott Walker
Wyoming: Matt Mead

Bruce Rauner has downstate support. He doesn't have the suburban vote he needs to beat Dem Cook county machine.

Alabama: Robert Bentley
Alaska: Sean Parnell
Arizona: Ken Bennett
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson
California: Jerry Brown
Colorado: John Hickenlooper
Connecticut: Tom Foley
Florida: Charlie Christ
Georgia: Jason Carter
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie
Idaho: Butch Otter
Illinois: Bruce Rauner
Iowa: Terry Branstad
Kansas: Paul Davis
Maine: Mike Michaud
Maryland: Anthony Brown
Massachusetts: Charlie Baker
Michigan: Mark Schauer
Minnesota: Mark Dayton
Nebraska: Jon Bruning
Nevada: Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan
New Mexico: Susana Martinez
New York: Andrew Cuomo
Ohio: Ed FitzGerald
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin
Oregon: John Kitzhaber
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo
South Carolina: Vincent Shaheen
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard
Tennessee: Bill Haslam
Texas: Greg Abbott
Vermont: Pete Shumlin
Wisconsin: Scott Walker
Wyoming: Matt Mead

All in all, there is a net gain of 5 Gubernatorial seats for the Democrats.

Winners in bold

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R) vs. Parker Griffith (D)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R) vs. Ethan Berkowitz (D) vs. Bill Walker (I)
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R) vs. Fred DuVal (D)
Arkansas: Mike Ross (D) vs. Asa Hutchison (R)
California: Jerry Brown (D) vs. Tim Donnelly (R)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D) vs. Tom Tancredo (R)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D) vs. Tom Foley (R)
Florida: Rick Scott (R) vs. Charlie Crist (D)(D+1)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R) vs. Jason Carter (D)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D) vs. Duke Aiona (R)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R) vs. A.J. Balukoff (D)
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) vs. Bruce Rauner (R) (R+1)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R) vs. Jack Hatch (D)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R) vs. Paul Davis (D)
Maine: Paul LePage (R) vs. Mike Michaud (D) vs. Eliot Cutler (I) (D+1)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) vs. Ron George (R)
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D) vs. Charlie Baker (R)
Michigan: Rick Snyder (R) vs. Mark Schauer (D) (D+1)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) vs. Kurt Zellers (R)
Nebraska: Jon Bruning (R) vs. Chuck Hassebrook (D)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) vs. Chris Hyepock (D)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) vs. Chuck Morse (R)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R) vs. Howie Morales (D)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D) vs. Rob Astorino (R)
Ohio: John Kasich (R) vs. Ed Fitzgerald (D)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R) vs. Joe Dorman (D)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) vs. Dennis Richardson (R)
Pennsylvania: Tom Corbett (R) vs. Tom Wolf (D) (D+1)
Rhode Island: Angel Taveras (D) vs. Allen Fung (R)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R) vs. Vincent Sheheen (D)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R) vs. Joe Lowe (D)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R) vs. Some Asshole (D)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R) vs. Wendy Davis (D)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) vs. Cris Ericson (I)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R) vs. Mary Burke (D)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R)

Overall: D+3

King def Martinez D+1.  NM tossup
Schauer def Synder D+1 MI tossup
Crist def Scott D+1 FL tossup
Tavares wins D+1 RI
Wolf def Corbett D+1 PA
Michaud def LePage D+1 ME

Hutchinson def Ross R+1

25D-25R
3-5 seat net gain

Since when is NM a tossup?

It isn't a tossup yet, I am being bold in predicting Martinez to lose just like IL is a super Dem state, so is NM. King's father Bruce King did serve as Gov in 1970 and she is now only 5 pts ahead. We will see if the race develops later.

I don't have a problem with you wanting to be bold. The tossup part just caught my eye.

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R)
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R)
California: Jerry Brown (D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut: Tom Foley (R)
Florida: Charlie Crist (D)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R)
Illinois: Bruce Rauner (R)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R)
Maine: Mike Michaud (D)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D)
Massachusetts: Charlie Baker (R)
Michigan: Rick Snyder (R)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D)
Nebraska: Jon Bruning (R)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio: John Kasich (R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf (D)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R)

Republicans + 1

Uh, What?

Martha Coakley was destroyed once, who says that's not going to happen again. Plus, Scott Brown was not nearly as well known as Charlie Baker in MA when he ran against Coakley.

She's leading him by double digits, and losing by 4 isn't being "Destroyed", and considering that Baker is a recycled 2010 Candidate, and how is he having more name recognition? Coakley's the Attorney General.

Look at all polling, so unless Grossman gets nominated, Baker isn't going to get to Boston.

Any candidate in Boston who is connected to Christie or Romney like Healey or Scott Brown or Baker aren't gonna get far in Boston or NH.

Alabama: Bentley
Alaska: Parnell
Arizona: Bennett. Governor Seagal sounds amazing, but it isn't happening
Arkansas: Hutchinson
California: Brown
Connecticut: Foley. You guys predict on bias. You don't get it. Malloy is HATED where I am.
Florida: Crist. This one will be a slugger. I'm talking Goku/Vegeta slugger
Georgia: Deal, barely
Hawaii: Aiona
Idaho: Butch Otter. That's the best name ever.
Illinois: Rauner
Iowa: Branstad.
Kansas: Brownback
Maine: LePage. Another squeaker, but his popularity in upper Maine is seriously underestimated.
Maryland: Brown
Massachusetts: Coakley
Michigan: Snyder
Minnesota: Dayton
Nebraska: Bruning
New Hampshire: Hassan. This could count as an endorsement. She's bipartisan
New Mexico: Martinez
New York: Cuomo
Ohio: Kasich
Oregon: Kitzhaber
Pennsylvania: Wolf
Rhode Island: Raimondo
South Carolina: Haley
South Dakota: Daugaard
Tennessee: Haslam
Texas: Sorry media, Abbott
Vermont: Shumlin
Wisconsin: Walker
Wyoming: Mead

Mary Burke def Walker
Crist def Scott
Michaud def LePage
Schauer def Synder
Wolf def Corbett
Raimondo wins RI

25D-25R

Hutchinson def Ross

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Update

Alabama: Robert Bentley - Safe R
Alaska: Sean Parnell - Safe R
Arizona: Ken Bennett - Lean R
Arkansas: Asa Hutchison - 50%, Mike Ross - 48%. Toss-Up
California: Jerry Brown - Safe D
Colorado: John Hickenlooper - Likely D
Connecticut: Dan Malloy - Lean D
Florida: Charlie Crist - Lean D
Georgia: Nathan Deal - 52%, Jason Carter - 46%. Lean R
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie - Likely D
Idaho: Butch Otter - 61%, AJ Balukoff - 38%. Safe R
Illinois: Pat Quinn - 49%, Bruce Rauner - 48%. Toss-Up
Iowa: Terry Branstad - Likely R
Kansas: Sam Brownback - Likely R
Maine: Mike Michaud - Lean D
Maryland: Anthony Brown - Safe D
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley - Likely D
Michigan: Rick Snyder - Lean R
Minnesota: Mark Dayton - Safe D
Nebraska: Pete Ricketts - 58%, Chuck Hassebrook - 40%. Safe R
Nevada: Brian Sandoval - Safe R
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan - Safe D
New Mexico: Susana Martinez - Likely R
New York: Andrew Cuomo - Safe D
Ohio: John Kasich - 53%, Ed Fitzgerald - 46%. Lean R
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin - Safe R
Oregon: John Kitzhaber - 59%, Dennis Richardson - 39%. Safe D
Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf - 57%, Tom Corbett - 41%. Likely D
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo - Safe D
South Carolina: Nikki Haley - Likely R
South Dakota: Dennis Dauggard - Safe R
Tennessee: Bill Haslam - Safe R
Texas: Greg Abbott - 56%, Wendy Davis - 42%. Safe R
Vermont: Peter Shumlin - Safe D
Wisconsin: Scott Walker - Lean R
Wyoming: Matt Mead - Safe R

Bolded = Pickup. My prediction - D+2
In states with already confirmed candidates, I bolded the winner and added percentages.

Republicans pick up IL, AR
Democrats pick up ME, PA, FL
RI goes Dem

Everything else stays with its current party. Republican Majority of 28-21.

Is the rating difference because of elasticity in Pennsylvania?

Yes, that and incumbency.

First prediction:

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I'm giving Malloy and Abercrombie the benefit of the doubt since their weakness was only shown by a single pollster, whereas Brownback's was corroborated by multiple pollsters. I'm putting Wisconsin at toss up tentatively, since I anticipate the recent allegations against him will at least have some impact on the polls. If not, I'll probably move it back to Lean R.

P.S.: Why does it show Rhode Island as a pickup when Chafee is a Democrat now?

Alabama: Bentley(I) - 61%, Griffith - 38%. Safe R
Alaska: Parnell(I) - Safe R
Arizona: Ducey - Lean R
Arkansas: Hutchison - 51%, Ross - 46%. Toss-Up
California: Brown(I) - 63%, Kashkari - 37%. Safe D
Colorado: Hickenlooper(I) - 54%, Beauprez - 44%. Likely D
Connecticut: Malloy(I) - Lean D
Florida: Crist - Toss-Up
Georgia: Deal(I) - 52%, Carter - 47%. Lean R
Hawaii: Ige - Likely D
Idaho: Otter(I) - 62%, Balukoff - 36%. Safe R
Illinois:  Rauner - 49%, Quinn(I) - 48%. Toss-Up
Iowa: Branstad(I) - 56%, Hatch - 42%. Likely R
Kansas: Brownback(I) - Lean R
Maine: Michaud - 44%, LePage(I) - 42%. Lean D
Maryland: Brown - 60%, Hogan - 39%. Safe D
Massachusetts: Coakley - 55%, Baker - 43%. Likely D
Michigan: Snyder(I) - Lean R
Minnesota: Dayton(I) - Safe D
Nebraska: Ricketts - 57%, Hassebrook - 42%. Safe R
Nevada: Sandoval(I) - 61%, Goodman - 36%. Safe R
New Hampshire: Hassan(I) - Safe D
New Mexico: Martinez(I) - 55%, King - 45%. Likely R
New York: Cuomo(I) - 64%, Astorino - 35%. Safe D
Ohio: Kasich(I) - 53%, FitzGerald - 45%. Lean R
Oklahoma: Fallin(I) - 62%, Dorman - 37%. Safe R
Oregon: Kitzhaber(I) - 58%, Richardson - 40%. Safe D
Pennsylvania: Wolf - 58%, Corbett(I) - 40%. Safe D?
Rhode Island: Raimondo - Safe D
South Carolina: Haley(I) - 53%, Sheheen - 46%. Likely R
South Dakota: Dauggard(I) - 61%, Wismer - 38%. Safe R
Tennessee: Haslam(I) - Safe R
Texas: Abbott(I) - 56%, Davis - 42%. Safe R
Vermont: Shumlin(I) - Safe D
Wisconsin: Walker(I) - Lean R
Wyoming: Mead(I) - Safe R

Bolded represents states that I think will flip. I'm predicting a net gain of 1 for D's (loss for AR, IL, pickup for ME, FL, PA)

My profile prediction here (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2014/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=15515)

Dems pickup Ga,FL,KS, WI, Pa. RI and ME

R's pickup ARK

To clarify, for races that "Lean R" but where I predict a Democratic pickup, that's because if the election was today the Republican would win but I see the race shifting toward the Democrat over the next several months.

Alabama: Robert Bentley (Safe R)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (Safe R)
Arizona: Doug Ducey (Lean R)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (Toss-Up)
California: Jerry Brown (Safe D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (Lean D)
Connecticut: Tom Foley (Toss-Up)
Florida: Charlie Crist (Lean D)
Georgia: Jason Carter (Lean R)
Hawaii: David Ige (Likely D)
Idaho: Butch Otter (Safe R)
Illinois: Bruce Rauner (Toss-Up)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (Likely R)
Kansas: Paul Davis (Toss-Up)
Maine: Mike Michaud (Lean D)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (Likely D)
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (Likely D)
Michigan: Mark Schauer (Toss-Up)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (Safe D)
Nebraska: Pete Ricketts (Likely R)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (Safe R)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (Safe D)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (Likely R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio: John Kasich (Lean R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (Safe R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (Safe D)
Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf (Likely D)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (Likely D)
South Carolina: Vincent Sheheen (Lean R)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (Safe R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (Safe R)
Texas: Greg Abbott (Safe R)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (Safe D)
Wisconsin: Mary Burke (Lean R)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (Safe R)

D+5

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Most of this will likely change later.

Dem IL, Pa, RI and ME

Tossup FL, MI, CO and ARK

People are mad about Quinn's performance. But, it is also Obama's homestate.

NM and MI as well as FL should be on the closely watched list. But IL will be close for Quinn once Cook comes in.

Does nobody know that Lincoln switched officially to Democrat? And add on a Republican win in CT.

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Update

Dems win WI, NM and FL as well as Pa and ME

R's win ARK, CT or HI

3-4 seat net D gain

Interesting thoughts. I definitely agree with the textbook part.

AK Dem pickup
AR Ross def Hutchinson
FL Crist def Scott D pickup
IL Quinn def Rauner
ME Michaud def LePage D pickup
PA Wolf def Corbett D pickup
RI Raimondo wins
WI Burke  def Walker D pickup

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This is my exact map as well

EDIT: except Florida

Post-Primary Season Update:

Safe D: CA, MD, MN, NH, NY, OR, RI, VT
Likely D: HI, MA, PA
Lean D: CO
Toss-Up: CT, FL, IL, KS, ME, WI
Lean R: AK, AZ, AR, GA, MI
Likely R: IA, NM, OH, SC
Safe R: AL, ID, NE, NV, OK, SD, TN, TX, WY

Guesstimate for percent margins.

Alabama:

Bentley: 62%
Griffith: 38%

Alaska:

Parnell: 50%
Walker: 46%

Arizona:

Ducey: 51%
DuVal: 46%

Arkansas:

Hutchison: 53%
Ross: 46%

California:

Brown: 62%
Kashkari: 38%

Colorado:

Hickenlooper: 52%
Beauprez: 46%

Connecticut:

Foley: 50%
Malloy: 49%

Florida:

Scott: 49%
Crist: 47%

Georgia:

Deal: 51%
Carter: 47%

Hawaii:

Ige: 56%
Aiona: 43%

Idaho:

Otter: 61%
Balukoff: 36%

Illinois:

Rauner: 49%
Quinn: 48%

Iowa:

Branstad: 58%
Hatch: 40%

Kansas:

Brownback: 48%
Davis: 47%

Maine:

Michaud: 44%
LePage: 42%
Cutler: 14%

Maryland:

Brown: 60%
Hogan: 39%

Massachusetts:

Coakley: 54%
Baker: 44%

Michigan:

Snyder: 51%
Schauer: 47%

Minnesota:

Dayton: 56%
Johnson: 41%

Nebraska:

Ricketts: 57%
Hassebrook: 42%

Nevada:

Sandoval: 58%
Goodman: 39%

New Hampshire:

Hassan: 59%
Havenstein: 41%

New Mexico:

Martinez: 54%
King: 46%

New York:

Cuomo: 64%
Astorino: 34%

Ohio:

Kasich: 57%
FitzGerald: 42%

Oklahoma:

Fallin: 59%
Dorman: 40%

Oregon:

Kitzhaber: 57%
Richardson: 41%

Pennsylvania:

Wolf: 59%
Corbett: 40%

Rhode Island:

Raimondo: 61%
Fung: 37%

South Carolina:

Haley: 53%
Shaheen: 43%
Ervin: 9%

South Dakota:

Daugaard: 62%
Wismer: 37%

Tennessee:

Haslam: 65%
Brown: 34%

Texas:

Abbott: 56%
Davis: 42%

Vermont:

Shumlin: 63%
Milne: 34%

Wisconsin:

Walker: 50%
Burke: 49%

Wyoming:

Mead: 67%
Gosar: 31%

Profile Prediction (probably needs updating) (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2014/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=15515)

Net gain R+1. This result may seem republican-skewed due to the fact I'm predicting republicans hold on in many tight races (Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Kansas) and defeat incumbents (Illinois, Connecticut). Recent changes have been Minnesota from Likely D to Safe D, Alaska from Safe R to Lean R, and Wisconsin from Lean R to Toss-up. And changes in winners have been from Malloy to Foley in Connecticut. This is certainly SUBJECT TO CHANGE, I would actually be surprised if Republicans did this good in November. A realistic prediction is anywhere from R+3 to D+5. This is going to be one crazy year for governors races!

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Updated my map.

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Alabama: Robert Bentley (R) (Safe R)
Alaska: Bill Walker (I) (Tossup)
Arizona: Doug Ducey (R) (Lean R)
California: Jerry Brown (D) (Safe D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D) (Tossup)
Connecticut: Tom Foley (R) (Tossup)
Florida: Rick Scott (Lean R)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R) (Lean R)
Hawaii: David Ige (D) (Lean D)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R) (Safe R)
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) (Tossup)
Iowa: Terry Brandstad (R) (Safe R)
Kansas: Paul Davis (D) (Tossup)
Maine: Michael Michaud (D) (Tossup [F[inks]ing Cutler])
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) (Lean D)
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D) (Tossup)
Michigan: Mark Schauer (D) (Tossup)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) (Safe D)
Nebraska: Pete Ricketts (R) (Safe R)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) (Safe R)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) (Safe D)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R) (Safe R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D) (Safe D)
Ohio: John Kasich (R) (Safe R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (Safe R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) (Safe D)
Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf (D) (Safe D)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D) (Safe D)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R) (Lean R)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R) (Safe R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R) (Safe R)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R) (Safe R)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) (Safe D)
Wisconsin: Mary Burke (D) (Tossup)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R) (Safe R)

Update (2nd last before 11/4):

Safe D: CA, NH, NY, OR, PA, VT
Likely D: HI, MD, MN, RI
Lean D: CO, IL, MA
Toss-Up: AK, CT, FL, KS, ME
Lean R: AZ, AR, GA, MI, WI
Likely R: NM, SC
Safe R: AL, ID, IA, NE, NV, OH, OK, SD, TN, TX, WY

Changes since last update:

MD: Safe D --> Likely D
MN: Safe D --> Likely D
RI: Safe D --> Likely D
PA: Likely D --> Safe D
MA: Likely D --> Lean D
IL: Toss-Up --> Lean D
WI: Toss-Up --> Lean R
AK: Lean R --> Toss-Up
IA: Likely R --> Safe R
OH: Likely R --> Safe R

Profile Prediction (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2014/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=15515)

Guesstimate for margins of competitive races:

Alaska:

Parnell - 50%
Walker - 47%

Arizona:

Ducey - 51%
DuVal - 46%

Arkansas:

Hutchinson - 53%
Ross - 46%

Colorado:

Hickenlooper - 51%
Beauprez - 47%

Connecticut:

Malloy - 48%
Foley - 45%

Florida:

Crist - 47%
Scott - 46%

Georgia:

Deal - 50% (just enough to avoid runoff)
Carter - 47%

Illinois:

Quinn - 52%
Rauner - 46%

Kansas:

Davis - 49%
Brownback - 47%

Maine:

Michaud - 43%
LePage - 42%
Cutler - 15%

Massachusetts:

Coakley - 52%
Baker - 47%

Michigan:

Snyder - 50%
Schauer - 48%

Wisconsin:

Walker - 51%
Burke - 48%

For a net pickup of D+3, with 27 Republican governors and 23 Democratic governors.

FWIW, my most hackish map:

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This was in October 2013

()

()

Final Prediction

Safe D: PA
Likely D: HI, RI
Lean D/I: AK, IL, KS, MD
Toss-Up: CO, CT, FL, ME
Lean R: GA, MA, MI, WI
Likely R: AZ, AR, SC

Changes since last prediction:

MN: Likely D --> Safe D
MD: Likely D --> Lean D
CO: Lean D --> Toss-Up
MA: Lean D --> Lean R
AK: Toss-Up --> Lean I
KS: Toss-Up --> Lean D
AZ: Lean R --> Likely R
AR: Lean R --> Likely R
NM: Likely R --> Safe R

Margins for close states:

Alaska:

Walker - 50%
Parnell - 47%

Arizona:

Ducey - 53%
DuVal - 44%

Arkansas:

Hutchinson - 54%
Ross - 45%

Colorado:

Hickenlooper - 49%
Beauprez - 47%

Connecticut:

Malloy - 48%
Foley - 46%

Florida:

Crist - 47%
Scott - 46%

Georgia:

Deal - 49%
Carter - 48%

Deal - 53%
Carter - 47%

Hawaii:

Ige - 54%
Aiona - 42%

Illinois:

Quinn - 51%
Rauner - 47%

Kansas:

Davis - 50%
Brownback - 46%

Maine:

Michaud - 44%
LePage - 44%
Cutler - 8%

Massachusetts:

Baker - 51%
Coakley - 48%

Maryland:

Brown - 53%
Hogan - 46%

Michigan:

Snyder - 50%
Schauer - 48%

South Carolina:

Haley - 53%
Sheheen - 43%

Wisconsin:

Walker - 50%
Burke - 49%

(Bolded = Incumbent)

Profile Prediction (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2014/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1990)

Net D+2, with one I pickup. 27 Republicans, 22 Democrats, 1 Independent.

()

Final Prediction: 24 Democrats, 25 Republicans, 1 Independent

FINAL UPDATE:
Alabama: Robert Bentley (R) def. Parker Griffith (D) SAFE R
Alaska: Bill Walker (I) def. Sean Parnell (R) TOSSUP/TILT I
 Arizona: Doug Ducey (R)def. Fred DuVal (D)  LEAN R
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R) def. Mike Ross (D)  LIKELY R
California: Jerry Brown (D) def. Neel Kashkari (R) SAFE D
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D) def. Bob Beauprez (R) LEAN D
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D) def. Tom Foley (R) LEAN D
Florida: Charlie Crist (D) def. Rick Scott (R)  LEAN D
Georgia:Nathan Deal (R) def. Jason Carter (D)TOSSUP/TILT R
Hawaii: David Ige (D) def. Duke Aiona (R) SAFE D
Idaho: Butch Otter (R) def. A. J. Balukoff (d)  SAFE R
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) def. Bruce Rauner (R) LEAN D
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R) def. Jack Hatch (D) SAFE R
Kansas: Paul Davis (D) def. Sam Brownback LEAN D
Maine: Mike Michaud (D) def. Paul Le Page (R) def. Eliot Cutler (I) LEAN D
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) def. Lawrence Hogan LIKELY D  
Massachusetts: Charlie Baker (R) def.  Martha Coakley (D) TOSSUP/TILT R
Michigan: Rick Snyder (R) def. Mark Schauer (D)  TOSSUP/TILT R
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) def. Jeff Johnson (R) SAFE D
Nebraska: Pete Ricketts (R) def. Chuck Hassebrook (D) SAFE R
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) def. Bob Goodman (D)  SAFE R
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) def. Walt Havenstein (R) SAFE D
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R) def. Gary King (D)  SAFE R
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D) def. Rob Astorino (R) SAFE D
Ohio: John Kasich (R) def. Ed Fitzgerald (D) SAFE R
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin(R) def. Joe Dorman SAFE R
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) def. Dennis Richardson (R) SAFE D
Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf (D) def. Tom Corbett SAFE D
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D) def. Allan Fung (R)  LIKELY D
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R) def. Vincent Shaheen (D) LIKELY R
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R) def. Susan Wismer (D)  SAFE R
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R) def. Charlie Brown (D) SAFE R
Texas: Greg Abbott (R) def. Wendy Davis SAFE R
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) def. Scott Milne (R)  SAFE D
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R) def. Mary Burke (D)  TOSSUP/TILT R
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R) def. Pete Gosar (D) SAFE R

A net gain of D+2

*denotes flip

AL: (I) Robert Bentley (R) over 60%
*AK: Bill Walker (I/D) 49% (I) Sean Parnell (R) 47% Others 4%
AZ: Doug Ducey (R) 53% Fred DuVal (D) 44% Others 3%
*AR: Asa Hutchinson (R) 52% Mike Ross (D) 45% Others 3%
CA: (I) Jerry Brown (D) over 60%
CO: (I) John Hickenlooper (D) 50% Bob Beauprez (R) 48% Others 2%
*CT: Tom Foley (R) 48% (I)Dan Malloy (D) 47% Others 5%
FL: (I) Rick Scott (R) 48% Charlie Crist 47% Others (mainly Adrian Wylie (L)) 5%
GA: (I)Nathan Deal (R) 49% Jason Carter (D) 47% Andrew Hunt (L) 4%. Georgia will go to a runoff if Deal does not break 50%
HI: David Ige (D) 52% Duke Aiona (R) 40% Mufi Hannemann (I) 7% Others 1%
ID: (I) Butch Otter (R) over 55%
IL: (I) Pat Quinn (D) 51% Bruce Rauner (R) 47% Others 2%
IA: (I) Terry Branstad (R) over 55%
*KS: Paul Davis (D) 49% (I) Sam Brownback (R) 46% Keen Umbehr (L) 5%
*ME: Mike Michaud (D) 47% (I) Paul LePage (R) 45% Eliot Cutler (I) 8%
MD: Anthony Brown (D) 52% Larry Hogan (R) 46% Other 2%
*MA: Charlie Baker (R) 49% Martha Coakley (D) 46% Others 5%
*MI: Mark Schauer (D) 50% (I) Rick Snyder (R) 49% Others 1%
MN: (I) Mark Dayton (D) under 55%
NE: Pete Ricketts (R) over 55%
NV: (I) Brian Sandoval (R) over 60%
NH: (I) Maggie Hassan (D) 54% Walt Havenstein (R) 46%
NM: (I)Susana Martinez (R) over 55%
NY: (I) Andrew Cuomo (D) over 55% Howie Hawkins (G) over 10%
OH: (I) John Kasich (R) over 60%
OK: (I) Mary Fallin (R) over 55%
OR: (I) John Kitzhaber (D) under 55%
*PA: Tom Wolf (D) under 55% (incumbent (R) Tom Corbett loses but breaks 40%)
RI: Gina Raimondo (D) 46% Allen Fung (R) 42% Robert Healey (I) 10% Others 2%
SC: (I) Nikki Haley (R) under 55%
SD: (I) Dennis Daugaard (R) over 60%
TN: (I) Bill Haslam (R) over 60%
TX: Greg Abbott (R) over 55%
VT: (I) Peter Shumlin (D) over 55%
WI: (I) Scott Walker (R) 50% Mary Burke (D) 49% Others 1%
WY: (I) Matt Mead (R) over 60%

Same as this, though our shades may differ in a few.

Bold denotes a party switch.

AL: (I) Robert Bentley (R) over 60%
AK: Bill Walker (I/D) 50% (I) Sean Parnell (R) 46% Others 4%
AZ: Doug Ducey (R) 54% Fred DuVal (D) 44% Others 2%
AR: Asa Hutchinson (R) 52% Mike Ross (D) 45% Others 3%
CA: (I) Jerry Brown (D) 60% Neel Kashkari (R) 40%
CO: (I) John Hickenlooper (D) 48% Bob Beauprez (R) 49% Others 3%
CT: Tom Foley (R) 46% (I)Dan Malloy (D) 48% Others 6%
FL: (I) Rick Scott (R) 46% Charlie Crist 47% Others 7%
GA: (I)Nathan Deal (R) 48% Jason Carter (D) 45% Andrew Hunt (L) 5%. Runoff: Deal 52%; Carter 48%
HI: David Ige (D) 52% Duke Aiona (R) 40% Mufi Hannemann (I) 7% Others 1%
ID: (I) Butch Otter (R) over 55%
IL: (I) Pat Quinn (D) 49% Bruce Rauner (R) 47% Others 5%
IA: (I) Terry Branstad (R) 60% Jack Hatch 37% others 3%
KS: Paul Davis (D) 48% (I) Sam Brownback (R) 46% Keen Umbehr (L) 5%
ME: Mike Michaud (D) 45% (I) Paul LePage (R) 44% Eliot Cutler (I) 10%
MD: Anthony Brown (D) 52% Larry Hogan (R) 46% Other 2%
MA: Charlie Baker (R) 49% Martha Coakley (D) 46% Others 5%
MI: Mark Schauer (D) 47% (I) Rick Snyder (R) 49% Others 4%
MN: (I) Mark Dayton (D) 52% Jeff Johnson (R) 45% Others 3%
NE: Pete Ricketts (R) over 55%
NV: (I) Brian Sandoval (R) over 60%
NH: (I) Maggie Hassan (D) 53% Walt Havenstein (R) 45%
NM: (I)Susana Martinez (R) 56% Gary King (D) 43% others 1%
NY: (I) Andrew Cuomo (D) over 55%, Rob Astorino (R) 30%, Howie Hawkins (G) 9%
OH: (I) John Kasich (R) 62% Ed FitzGerald 35% others 5%
OK: (I) Mary Fallin (R) over 55%
OR: (I) John Kitzhaber (D) 51% Bill Richardson (R) 46%
PA: Tom Wolf (D) 53% Tom Corbett (R) 46%
RI: Gina Raimondo (D) 46% Allen Fung (R) 42% Robert Healey (I) 10% Others 2%
SC: (I) Nikki Haley (R) under 55%
SD: (I) Dennis Daugaard (R) over 60%
TN: (I) Bill Haslam (R) over 60%
TX: Greg Abbott (R) 56% Wendy Davis (D) 43%
VT: (I) Peter Shumlin (D) over 55%
WI: (I) Scott Walker (R) 50% Mary Burke (D) 48% Others 2%
WY: (I) Matt Mead (R) around 65%

Before the results of the gubernatorial elections prediction contest are announced, I want to note that the three final entries were submitted after the deadline (by Atheist2006, Juin, and jgsf1987), and that these predictors had access to some election results when they posted their predictions. They should either be disqualified, or simply have the penultimate predictions entered rather than the final ones (or earlier ones, if penultimate predictions were also made with access to election results). No Senate predictions were made with access to election results.

EDIT: If you remove predictions made with access to results, just one person predicted Larry Hogan's victory in Maryland -- slick67! Some congratulations are definitely in order, even if some of the other interesting parts of that prediction didn't take place.

Bacon King also predicted Hogan would win :P

But he didn't submit a contest prediction :(

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2014/pred.php?action=indpred&id=2125

That's...odd, since the software shows a total of 4 predictions from Hogan, and we just counted 5...slick67, BK, and the three "illegal" predictions. Hm.

I will now accept my accolades

Seriously though the Hogan predictions are me, slick67, gporter (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2014/pred.php?action=indpred&id=236), and colin (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2014/pred.php?action=indpred&id=2075). It appears that even though the system apparently allowed people to update their predictions after the deadline, it didn't count those late predictions towards the aggregate totals.

So...I hate to be "that guy"...but when will rankings for the prediction contest be released?