Talk Elections

Since this seems to be the only major race this year that has any suspense to it...    

If the Feds start investigating Kookinelli, just like they started doing with McDonnell, then maybe this race won't have much suspense too.

Cucinelli is a Santorum-esque nut, and the FBI investigation into McDonnell can't end well for him.


McAuliffe is a terrible candidate whose policies are just the Democratic Party Platform.

McAuliffe, I guess.  It's a shame Bolling didn't run.

McAuliffe. He may be the incarnation of Generic D, but Cuccinelli is just insane.

McAuliffe, though Cuccinelli winning wouldn't shock me greatly.

Terry = Democrats Romney

He was a born a loser.

This; I might send $20 to Cuccinelli sometime soon, just to do my part. I met him in 2009, when I was 13. One of the nicer politicians I have encountered, so I hope he wins.
()

Cooch.

Mitt Romney is not a loser.

I think McAuliffe is favored, but I expect it to go down to the wire.

It's really a shame that Bolling didn't run, because I don't think I could bring myself to vote for either of these two if I lived in Virginia.

I don't like either, but I'd vote for my party.

Mcauliffe, the lesser evil

I support and would vote for Cuccinelli, but I highly doubt that he'll win.  He's too extreme on social issues, and as such, will get creamed in the DC suburbs and seal the election for McAuliffe *gag*.

In terms of his electoral record, he most certainly is a loser.

Definitely not Virginia.

?

Virginia loses because regardless, they're getting a bad Governor. The poll question asked who is going to win in November.

Pretty much.  Both are just terrible, really godawful.

Changing my vote to Cuccinelli (although this race is certainly subject to change). He is the definition of a right wing extremist, but at this point an ideologue with charisma can beat a milquetoast Generic D. And nobody in America fits the Generic D stereotype better than Terry McAuliffe.

It's absolutely disgusting that VA Democrats couldn't find someone better.

So there is no chance another Dem jumps in? Is it too late?

Really? Wasn't Joe Donnelly a Generic D? You think it's a shame the Ds couldnt find someone other than a Generic D? Isn't the definition of Generic D type of candidate the Ds would typically find? I'm confused by this post.

Edit: Nvm, just saw the WaPo poll. Sure, if someone else were to jump in that might shake things up, but it would be risky. Equally with a prospect of success is just McAuliffe running a better campaign

Joe Donnelly is a generic blue dog in a red state who most likely would have lost if Mourdock learned how to shut the hell up about rape. That race firmly leaned towards the Republicans until Mourdock decided to open his mouth (thank god for that).

Terry McAuliffe is a generic New Democrat and a political retread who talks about Bill Clinton in a way that makes Monica Lewinsky look like a nun in a swing state. He's going up against a candidate whose politics aren't palatable for a purple state. Sure, he's a great fundraiser and he was a good DNC chair, but as a candidate I don't like him. And now reputable polling outlets are starting to agree with the ridiculous results I wrote off a month ago. Right now, this race tilts Cuccinelli when you and I both know it very well shouldn't be.

I'm hoping that his fundraising can save this guy's ass or Cuccinelli Akins his way into obscurity. Please, Terry, prove me wrong.

I'm pretty sure both of these men are much more successful than any of us ever will eb.

I'm Kanye West. That doesn't make any sense.

Koenkai, go back to wherever you were for the past few months.

Cuccinelli.

They're both horrible choices. I think McAuffie wins as I can see Cuccinelli making an Akin-esque gaffe.

Exactly.

Can we not do this?

as to the actual topic -- I very much agree that Bolling would have been miles better than these two clowns.

Please some independent jump into the race to spare the people of Virginia the horror of either of these guys.

Nice to see that some people haven't changed at all.

At least they're not pointlessly spiteful (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=161114.msg3456901#msg3456901), Pinochet loving (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158537.msg3412920#msg3412920), wealth-fetishizing (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=161142.msg3457649#msg3457649), late-19th-century-labor-relations admiring, have-I-mentioned-I'm-Asian-so-I-can-call-anything-racist (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=160524.msg3448011#msg3448011)-and-am-offended-if-you-accuse-me-of-the-same, neoconservatives, who think employers telling their employees how to vote is not only excusable, but on some level desirable (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=161266.msg3459515#msg3459515), see fair electoral district representation as a quaint little nuisance (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=160157.msg3443430#msg3443430), and generally carry themselves with the sort of slapstick villainous aura of an Atlas Shrugged character. Not that I'm singling anyone out or anything.

All of these but one or two are creative interpretations on your part, to put it lightly.

As chronic-devil's-advocate (for some bizarre reason I've never understood), you are perhaps not the best neutral arbiter.

Whatever, though. I just wanted to get that off my chest. He gets under my skin in a way noone on this site ever has. I'll move on now.

Translation: My feelings validate my statements.

There are quite a few people the lockstep-left on here likes to portray as devils who are nothing butanything butlol fail.

It's nice to see, though, that you're defending the substance of your assertions rather than making pointless personal comments.

Edit: Seriously, I said what I came to say. I'm done here.

I'd be shocked if Cuccinelli didn't move to the center (at least in terms of appearance) for the election. That being said, I don't think it'll be enough.

McAullife isn't a perfect candidate by any means (i.e. his resume sucks), but nothing suggests he's actually that weak. He won't bleed minority support. He appeals well to wealthy (and Democrat-leaning) Northern Virginians. Hyper-lefties ain't gonna go and vote for Cuccinelli. Seems like the generic Democrat who fits Virginia well. I think he's got it.

A Person - I'll put it as kindly as I can - please stop being a useless Evan Bayh-level moderate hero.

McAuliffe, far from the greatest candidate, but Cuccinelli is simply way too far to the right, especially on social issues.  The drubbing Cuccinelli gets in the D.C burbs will just be far too large to make up elsewhere.

Why contribute to pulling a thread even further off-topic? The only reason anyone should come here is to weigh in on the Virginia Gubernatorial race, not use it to try and attack members of this forum.

When is the deadline for a third-party to enter the race?

June 11.

Nate Cohn explains McAuliffe's off-year problem.

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/113146/2013-virginia-governor-turnout-hurts-mcauliffe-helps-cuccinelli#

Good article, basically restates a lot of what we already know. I think with an effective ad campaign and a decent money advantage McAuliffe can win but who knows...

Cuccinelli is more likely to win, not because of any other reason than because Republicans are more likely to turn out in non-presidential year than do Democrats.

Also, for the person who said that Donnelly wouldn't win has Mourdock not talk about rape: this is not true at all. Donnelly was already ahead in the poll before the whole controversy. I was following the race.

Cucci-guy has a good chance to win this, because of VA's tradition to elect the opposing party of the incumbent President.

This is brilliant.


Last time I checked the polls were bouncing back and forth. (http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/in-senator-12) I thought that before the rape comments Mourdock would win because, God bless me, I thought Indiana was a fairly Republican state and that would tilt it towards Mourdock. Hell, even after the polls the race bounced around a little (this time it showed a clear lean towards Donnelly though).

Cooch... he might be an ideological radical but McAuliffe is total sleaze without a base, especially in an off year election , nobody likes him, not even his own party.. at least the GOP likes Cucinelli.  McAuliffe has a nastier corporate record than Romney, much less his corrupt political record, and the GOP and PACs can run ads on that until kingdom come.

Let's focus away from this and go to the LtGov race here.

The Republican candiate, EW Jackson, to say the least, is a f***ing lunatic. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oi_KaZ53eDg) He has history of saying that Planned Parenthood has done more to harm the black community than the KKK, President Obama is an anti-Semite, and that Obama "clearly has Muslim sensibilities (http://web.archive.org/web/20100701095049/http://standamerica.us/blog/2010/04/09/obamas-anti-israel-policy/).

EW Jackson may be the greatest gift Terry McAuliffe could have ever received. This guy makes Ken Cuccinelli look like Bernie Sanders.

Yes, he'll be very harmful to Kuccinelli (even more than Kuccinelli is to Kuccinelli). Alvin Greene would have been a better option.

BTW, this guy ran for Senate las year, and he got less than 5% in the GOP primary. You have to be some kind of crazy person to run against Allen in a GOP primary in VA and think you can win.

This guy... EW Jackson will be the new face of the GOP for 6 months if Democrats do their job right. They don't call him Ew for nothing.

joke candidate for joke position.   makes sense.

The Virginia GOP have given the Democrats a great line of attack. You can bet that even if Cuccinelli manages to move to the center, the Democrats will be able to lump him in with E.W. Jackson, who has said such great lines such as these:



Plus, Mark Obenshain is the nominee for Attorney General, who is far from a perfect candidate, seeing as he drafted a bill that would force women to report miscarriages to the police or face jail time.

http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2013/05/20/2035411/virginia-gop-nominee-for-attorney-general-would-force-women-to-report-their-miscarriages-to-police/?mobile=nc

Even though McCauliffe is far from the perfect candidate, Aneesh Chopra is a great candidate and neither of the Dem candidates for AG look like they'll have trouble beating Obenshain. Overall, that helps McCauliffe.

Why would they put this guy on the ticket in a post-Akin world?

Apparently Cooch didn't step in because he was worried about taking heat for blocking an African-American.  (http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/virginia-republicans-panicking-over-their-choice-for-lieutenant-governor-20130521) I don't buy that. He should've exercised his veto.

Virginia elects its lieutenant governors separately, it's not a ticket.

I expect this will hurt Cuckoo's candidacy anyway though.  This EW Jackson guy is a piece of work.   

()

Jackson won't apologize for being batshoot insane (http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/va-politics/lt-gov-nominee-jackson-says-no-apologies-for-past-comments-on-gays-abortion/2013/05/21/8bd26c40-c258-11e2-914f-a7aba60512a7_story.html), and he also fought against desegregating South Boston in the '80s.

Hence "they", but you're right about ticket being the incorrect terminology.

From what I understand Cuccinelli's camp are distancing themselves from their new LG candidate with statements like "we feel the voters should become comfortable with each member of the ticket individually". Virginia has a long history of split ticket Gubernatorial races, so it wouldn't be that unusual if Cuccinelli won but Jackson lost.

And he withdrew the bill when he realized it would do that.

I don't plan on voting for the guy, but let's be fair to him here.

I'm being as fair as the press and his opponent will be to him. That's what matters come November.

I feel the lieutenant governor race will be funny :p.

Jackson: the 3/5 clause was "anti-slavery."  (http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/05/ew-jackson-three-fifths-clause-slavery.php)

Jesus.....

What the hell was the VA GOP thinking?

Thinking? That's for liberal wussies. Real men go with their gut.

still a more informed view than most people have, who think slaves should have been counted as full persons instead.

I originally thought that the VA Governor's race was a pure tossup due to both candidates being badly flawed, but now I'd have to give a slight edge to McAuliffe.  Cuccinelli, Jackson and Obenshain have a collective history on women's rights which I think is going to be a big problem.  It should not be difficult for us to tie them together.

Rep. Rigell is refusing to endorse (http://hamptonroads.com/2013/06/us-rep-rigell-wont-endorse-jackson-lt-gov) E.W Jackson.

E.W Jackson had another hit today: (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/06/ew-jackson-evolution-false-monkeys_n_3398022.html?ncid=txtlnkushpmg00000037) Monkeys can't talk, ergo there was no evolution.

Perhaps the silver linning for the VaGOP is that Jackson makes Cuccenelli seem more sane

Yoga is the devil's work, too.

HAHAHA. (http://www.politico.com/story/2013/06/ken-cuccinelli-ew-jackson-bid-separate-from-mine-92412.html?hp=l2)


I don't think Jackson is taking the hints: (http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/va-politics/what-cuccinelli-told-ew-jackson-that-caused-him-to-run-for-virginias-lieutenant-governor/2013/06/02/06cf4940-cb00-11e2-9245-773c0123c027_story.html)

With just 31% in both D races are close:

LG:
Northam- 53%
Chopra- 47%

AG:
Herring- 52%
Fairfax- 48%

After a big vote dump, 58% is in:

LG:
Northam- 52%
Chopra- 48%

AG:
Herring- 53%
Fairfax- 47%

Almost all of Fairfax County is still out, which should help Chopra.

Chopra has conceded :(

This and Rosalyn Dance staying alive makes me disappointed in VA Primary voters, but whatever.

These results are disconcerting, I was sure Chopra would win. But I forget that racism still exists in Virginia. And Chopra sounds more foreign than Obama. And even worse, didn't Northam try to give control of the Senate to the Republcians? Who voted for him?

Yet another reason I feel horrible for the Democrats here. They now have to choose between an insufferably uncharismatic moderate hero and a literal DINO vs. two right-wing nutjobs.

::)  Northam was endorsed by the Washington Post, and had a strong base outside of NOVA.

Northam won Fairfax county 54-46, and won NoVA overall.  Totally crushed Aneesh in Norfolk.  Aneesh won metro Richmond including Chesterfield, but even Richmond was 58-42.

Doesn't really look like race played a particular role in the vote.

So at this point is it fair to say that the Democratic candidates have the upper hand in all three races?

"Northam, a pediatric neurologist, has spent six years in the Senate, and he won primary endorsements from key Democratic interest groups, including Planned Parenthood and the Virginia Education Association." from the Washington Post
I don't think he's a DINO.

If you ever become inches away from jumping to the other side, you are a DINO. I'm not being your average Daily Kos-worshipping true leftist bitching about how we should primary Rahall or Matheson or McIntyre for not being liberal enough: if Virginia's Senate Democrats didn't see the plans on Twitter, their lieutenant gubernatorial candidate would be a Republican right now. Quite literally, Northam is a Democrat in Name Only, and should have been rewarded with losing his job in 2010, and certainly not with a f***ing promotion.

If you don't think Northam's a DINO, then please tell me what classifies one in your mind, because I'm dying to know.

Northam has a geographic base here in Norfolk as a state senator and a pediatrician at CHKD.  No one knows what Chopra's about except that he has connections with the state and national party establishment. 

I honestly can't see Northam as part of the Virginia GOP.

Only in the Lt. Governors race.  Governor will be a toss-up until election day, and Attorney General is a toss-up now, but should lean D as the fireworks from the other races spill over.

I really hope Cuccinelli doesn't win.  He legitimately scares me.  I also see his ads on tv all the time (NOVA) and he strikes me as laughably fake.  You can tell he's a pretty awful person but puts on this sweet innocent face in all his commercials, it's kind of sickening.

I would say:

Gov- Tilt D
LG- Likely D
AG- Tilt D

With AG being the best opportunity for an R hold

Coming from a Democrat he seems like genuinely nice personally (http://blogs.nbc12.com/decisionvirginia/2013/01/cuccinelli-helps-truck-driver-escape-burning-rig.html), but then again being nice doesn't get you elected. His political views are as vile as it gets, though.

Oh my god, yes, Aneesh Chopra would have been a better candidate,...

Honestly, cuccinelli literally scares me, he can win...

Jackson's hit of the week: government progams have been more detrimental to blacks than slavery. (http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/06/20/e-w-jackson-government-programs-worse-than-slavery-for-black-families/)

So, we will win the Lieutenant Governor race? :p

Is it too late for the Democrats to replace McAuliffe with, you know, a Democrat?

McAuliffe supports far-right "right-to-work" laws.

Republicans are doing great at this whole rebranding thing.

Ken Cuccinelli Appeals To Defend Virginia's Anti-Sodomy Law At Supreme Court


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/25/ken-cuccinelli-sodomy-supreme-court_n_3498444.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003

Ken Cuccinelli = Rick Santorum with a brain.

My god... Workers will have to wait...

I just read about this somewhere else. He said that it should stand because it allowed them to prosecute a 47-year-old for having sex with a 17-year old.

My immediate reaction was "Why can't you just prosecute him under age of consent laws???"

Likely because the sodomy law was a felony (I think)... whereas the age of consent law in that case would only be a misdemeanor:

Virginia

The age of consent in Virginia is 18, with a close in age exception that allows teenagers aged 15 to 17 to engage in sexual acts but only with a partner younger than 18.

Section § 18.2-63 of the Code refers to minors younger than 15, while § 18.2-371 is about 15-, 16- and 17-year-olds.

Section 18.2-63 states in part:
"If any person carnally knows, without the use of force, a child thirteen years of age or older but under fifteen years of age, such person shall be guilty of ... felony ... For the purposes of this section, (i) a child under the age of thirteen years shall not be considered a consenting child and (ii) "carnal knowledge" includes the acts of sexual intercourse, cunnilingus, fellatio, analingus, anal intercourse, and animate and inanimate object sexual penetration."
Consensual sex where one partner is 15, 16 or 17 and the other is over 18 is a class 1 misdemeanor.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ages_of_consent_in_North_America#Virginia

The guy is clearly a sleazebag though.

The 4th circuit ruling is kind of odd. It implies that it's a constitutional violation to make some sex acts illegal between certain persons, but making all sex acts illegal between those persons would be okay.

Thanks for the explanation.


You said it.

I am just hoping that the over the top statements some candidates are making will drive up turnout.  If turnout approaches a Presidential election, it would be impossible for the Republicans to win any of these races...

Turnout most certainly won't approach presidential levels.

If this story gains traction, it could help doom Cuccinelli in November:

For months, Cuccinelli didn’t know of McDonnell allegations, campaign says (http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/va-politics/cuccinelli-sold-star-stock-when-he-didnt-know-about-mcdonnell-probe/2013/07/03/895e15e0-e003-11e2-b2d4-ea6d8f477a01_story.html)

By Rosalind S. Helderman, Published: July 3

Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli’s staff purposely shielded him from allegations of improper behavior by Gov. Robert F. McDonnell for five months last year, knowing the attorney general was friendly with a key donor at the center of those accusations, according to new information released by Cuccinelli’s gubernatorial campaign.

Cuccinelli (R) had stayed at the home of Star Scientific Inc. chief executive Jonnie R. Williams Sr. shortly after he took office in 2010, so Cuccinelli’s deputy “walled off” Cuccinelli from a separate criminal investigation into whether a chef at the governor’s mansion had embezzled food, campaign officials said.

The timeline is significant because Cuccinelli owned stock in Williams’s company and sold some of it at a profit during this time frame.

Imagine if it did though. What reason other than ensuring low voter turn-out do these states like New Jersey, Virginia, and Mississippi have for having their elections in off-years? The Virginia gubernatorial election consistently has a voting-eligible population turnout of under 40% (http://www.governing.com/blogs/politics/Why-Turnout-in-Virginia.html). It's probably even lower for the state legislature.

Same deal with NYC and their mayoral election.

Having off-year elections allows a focus on state instead of federal issues in election season, and for that I consider it a very good thing. 

It's a choice between low turn-out and 'focus' and I don't see how state or federal issues are that much different. It's not like you're going to be doing A federally and B at the state level or that the state elections are going to get crowded out by federal ones. Portland, OR has its mayoral elections in presidential years and there's plenty of discussion of the issues. I don't notice things being inadequate compared to the coverage in Los Angeles' off-year mayoral election. Same thing with Governor and even then you have mid-terms, there's no need to go off-year for Governor and the state legislature.

That will drive down turnout if anything.

I agree with this, but everything is so partisan nowadays that national crap finds its way in.  If it was all about who is going to fix the traffic problem in NOVA or make the local schools better... then this would be great. But, most people in Virginia are just going to vote on party line and the results will track closely with demographic and regional voting patterns in Presidential years... the difference being it will skew more rural, older, and whiter.

I think it depends how over the top they get.  If they start making homophobic/anti-abortion comments, I could see it pissing off Fairfax/Arlington/Alexandria voters enough to drive turnout up slightly.  Pretty sure there is a huge gay population on the metro accessible areas of NOVA, I am curious how mobilized they will be to vote against someone who has literal contempt for them.

To those who live in Virginia/familiar with Virginian state politics - Given all the scandals McDonnell and his family have been involved in recently, has the race tilted to McAuliffe?

It certainly won't help Cooch, but I wouldn't go so far as to call it a game change. McDonnell had (has, still not sure about the fallout yet) cross-over support, but little of that cross-over support would have trickled to Cuccinelli. At this stage it's still a turnout election; Conservatives want Cooch, liberals want anyone but Cooch. It's unlikely that the conservative true-believers will stay home because of McDonnell (they actually campaigned against him at the convention.) The real question is will this turnout more Democrats. At this stage I don't think so, given McAuliffe's lackluster personality. If the McDonnell scandal gets really bad and can be substantively tied to Cuccinelli, then it's a whole new ballgame. But at this stage, I haven't actually seen much coverage of McDonnell in Virginia. The report on his business getting a loan from the Star Scientific guy was on page 6 in my paper today. I think everyone is waiting to see what comes of the investigation first. If McDonnell only comes off partially slimy and Cooch stays on topic, I imagine tossup status will remain.

Thanks for the information, it will certainly be an interesting election to watch.

With all the crooked politics McAuliffe pulled with the Clintons, he should be seen as bad news. He'll be Hillary Clinton's running mate most likely that is if he wins.

Doubt it, he's close with Bill, not Hillary. And she'd want someone relatively young and popular. Of she wanted a Virginia running-mate, she'd go with Warner or Kaine.

Indeed. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine are successful politicians with appeal in Virginia. McAuliffe will probably become governor because he is the least negative option, not because the voters in Virginia love him.

I don't think the scandals will be a deciding factor.  It's going to come out to turnout.  In an election where most of the electorate turns out, Republicans cannot win unless their candidate is flawless (which Cooch is not... in fact he's far from).  In a low turnout election, Republicans can win because most of the drop off will be minorities and young voters, which is a big portion of the Northern Virginia vote.

PPP has McAuliffe up 41-37 (http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/ppp-poll-mcauliffe-up-4-on-cuccinelli-94246.html?hp=l2) with the Libertarian pulling 7% and 15% undecided.

Neither are popular, but McAuliffe is almost breaking even:

I wonder if McAuliffe vs. Cuccinelli will be a bigger race to the bottom than Reid vs. Angle.  Maybe not.

I'm hoping not but with the way the state elections of Virginia seem to match the federal government, we'll probably see four years of a Democrat next followed by four years of a Republican unless Obama's approval ratings plummet between now and November.

But remember, Virginia matches the federal government, by doing the opposite. We elected a Republican in '77 as a rejection of Carter, Democrats in '81, '85, and '89 to counter Reagan and Bush 1. In '93 Republican George Allen was seen as the canary in the coal mine of the Clinton backlash. In '97 another Republican was elected coinciding with Clinton's 2nd term. In '01 and '05, Democrats countered Bush 2. And then in '09 we had McDonnell pull an Allen and portend the anti-Obama wave in 2010. If McAuliffe wins, it'll be the first time Virginia elected a governor in agreement with the new President since the 1970s.

Maybe Ken Cuccinelli is so extreme that there a new phenomenon.

Anyway, Bill Bolling was a shoo-in... until he didn't get the nomination.

Excellent point. I was only looking at the president's numbers.

New Roanoke College poll.

Cuccinelli (R) 37%
McAuliffe (D) 31 %
Sarvis (L) 5%

Undecided 27%

Roanoke is a joke poll.

It showed a Romney+6 or so win, was 10 points off.

Quinnipiac has McAuliffe by 4 today, just like PPP.

Quinnipiac does show the same result as PPP - McAuliffe +4. However, both polls are "Registered Voter" polls, not "Likely Voter". Nate Silver once said that the shift from Registered to Likely usually shifts the result R+1 or R+2. If played conservatively, that turns the result into McAuliffe +3.

The poll's MoE is 3%. I agree that McAuliffe has a slight lead, but this is pretty darn close to a tossup. I'd say McAuliffe has a 55-60% chance of winning.

There's no reason to poll likely voters until AT LEAST late September. Nobody's paying attention to an election in the middle of July.

They've always been wildly inaccurate. Two months before they had Obama leading by 8 points.

Good evening folks.

On the VA Governor's race: I'm thinking it's too close to call and for McAuliffe to win, he's gonna need huge turnout among African Americans and Latinos to have any shot at reclaiming the VA governorship for the Dems.

Didn't the VA General Assembly push some legislation to extending the governor's term to 8 years instead of the one-term restriction (like Mexico and Guatemala have on their presidents) ?

Most commentators (Including Sabato) have crowned McAuliffe the winner of today's debate, or that he exceeded expectations at the very least.

Citizens United is putting together an anti-Terry movie (http://nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/354500/coming-soon-screen-near-you-fast-terry-jim-geraghty).

The clouds of scandal that have enveloped both Gov. Bob McDonnell and his would-be successor Ken Cuccinelli seem to have spread to Terry McAuliffe as well (http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/company-with-ties-to-terry-mcauliffe-is-under-sec-investigation/2013/08/02/da483b36-f956-11e2-b018-5b8251f0c56e_story.html).  

If Bill Bolling had been the GOP gubernatorial nominee instead of Ken Cuccinelli, I would not have bothered even considering to vote this year.  

OK, would Bolling of had a serious shot at winning if he had run? Because it's starting to look that way.

Oh absolutely.  I thought he could win from the start, but now it'd be much easier.

Ugh. GreenTech is an embarrassment for McAuliffe, period. At this point I'm worried that if he wins, his governorship is going to be dogged by questions of how much he knew at GreenTech about any improprieties. If Bill Bolling had run I'd probably have voted for him. There aren't really any good choices right now.

Here's looking forward to 2017!

Hey Hey, Ho Ho
TBD has got to go.

Yeah, great rallying cry considering Virginia has one term term limits for their Governor.

Yeah, I know :P

Billionaire greenie Tom Steyer will be investing in McAuliffe.  (http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=4AA01FEF-D45B-4562-BDA7-D2F3BBCAA007)

I can't help but think our state's reputation is taking a hit since we have a crook for a governor and our 2 candidates to replace him are a kook and a crook. At LG we have a moron running against an opportunist who was willing to sell his party label, and at AG we have a pro-life statist vs. a mean-spirited, loud-mouthed jerk. Pity us.

Here's how I think VA will go in November:

1. State Attorney General-Dems wins the office for the first time since 1989: it's been 24 years since a Democrat won the state's law enforcement post.

2. Lieutenant Governor-Dems take back this office because Jackson is an IDIOT.

3. Governor: Too close to call, but I'm going to lean McAuliffe, who needs the Clintons and Senators Kaine & Warner to bail him out and help him.

Speaking of T-Mac and the Clintons. (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/10/us/politics/hopefuls-connections-jolt-bitter-virginia-race.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp)

We're about to find out in 3 months if McAuliffe can break the curse on his political party losing the governorship despite holding the WH.

The polls are looking quite good for McAuliffe so I think he is able to win in November.

Sabato's new rating is Leans D. (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/virginia-governor-a-favorite-emerges/)

Damn, that's a huge deal considering we are talking about Virginia.

Rubio is headed to VA (http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/marco-rubio-ken-cuccinelli-fundraiser-96288.html?hp=r11) to help Cuccinelli.

If the Democrats are able to power a candidate as weak as McAuliffe to victory and sweep other statewide offices in an off-year, the Republicans are probably done in Virginia.

Maybe Virginia Democrats can give much needed help to their counterparts in North Carolina.

I don't think that would be the case if Republican ran better candidates though.

Not really.  If Democrats win this year it'll be because the GOP opponent was out of touch with Virginia; if Bolling had been the nominee, he'd be up 10 points at the moment.

Ten points?  I don't live in Virginia, but isn't your state slowly becoming out of reach for McDonnell/Bolling/Cuccinelli-type GOPers?

Bolling is the most moderate of those.

DKE says that (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/09/04/1235776/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-9-4#20130904132934) E.W Jackson's campaign is turning away help from the state Republican organization:

The problem for Republicans is that if the Democrats keep sweeping state races, Republicans won't have a very good bench to compete.

Who else does the Republicans have beside Bill Bolling?

Why do you say that?  McDonnell won by 17 points just 4 years ago.

Four years is a long time in politics.

What are you talking about? The Republicans are the ones who have been sweeping state races. If Jackson loses, we'll have the first Democratic Lt. Governor since 2006. The AG has been Republican since 1994.

Roll Call is also moving this from Tossup to Lean D. (http://www.rollcall.com/news/ratings_change_virginia_governor-227456-1.html)

Yes, Larry Sabato has also moved this from Toss-Up to Lean D (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/virginia-governor-a-favorite-emerges/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Crystal_Ball+%28Larry+J.+Sabato%27s+Crystal+Ball%29).

Looks like Virginia politics will break history's record and a elect a governor from the same party as the president. This is important as the new face of Virginia could potentially represent a state that now has a decent democratic advantage in modern election politics. This is a shift that must be watched in the next few years.

Yeah it's pretty crazy, Virginia has not elected a Governor from the same party as the President since 1974 when Republican Miles Goodwin was elected Governor despite Gerald Ford being a Republican President. Just goes to show that political trends are broken so easily and are silly to rely on.

Beet, I think it's possible we could see a Democratic sweep of Governor, LG and State AG in November.

Possible? That's looking like it's almost a guarantee.

Virginia Beach Mayor Sessoms, a Republican, to endorse Democrat McAuliffe in Va. governor race.

This is the first time he's ever cross-party endorsed.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/gop-virginia-beach-mayor-will-sessoms-to-endorse-democrat-mcauliffe-in-va-governor-race/2013/09/16/60abd3fe-1efa-11e3-9ad0-96244100e647_story.html (http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/gop-virginia-beach-mayor-will-sessoms-to-endorse-democrat-mcauliffe-in-va-governor-race/2013/09/16/60abd3fe-1efa-11e3-9ad0-96244100e647_story.html)

I don't live in Virginia either but I was under the impression that Bolling, while conservative, wasn't really a McDonnell/Cuccinelli-type GOPer.

It seems McAuliffe will be less unpopular of two and win, albeit - by uninspiring margin..

Definitely. I bet Bolling will be elected Governor in 2017.

McAuliffe bombed with the NVTC, complete self-parody. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/mcauliffe-camp-erupts-over-business-pacs-choice-of-cuccinelli-for-virginia-governor/2013/09/15/bd93558e-1e04-11e3-8459-657e0c72fec8_story.html) Now his camp's going ballistic.

Virginia Beach mayor Will Sessoms (R) is endorsing McAuliffe. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/gop-virginia-beach-mayor-will-sessoms-to-endorse-democrat-mcauliffe-in-va-governor-race/2013/09/16/60abd3fe-1efa-11e3-9ad0-96244100e647_story.html)

McDonnell and Bolling were both the more moderate candidate when they won their primaries in 2005, and are more alike to each other in their philosophy/approach to governing than either is to Cuccinelli.    A Republican doesn't need to be a John Warner-type to win Virginia, and win decisively against a flawed opponent like McAuliffe. 

Five posts up... ;)

Ah, there it is!

McAuliffe now only leads Cuccinelli 44% to 41%. That's down from 48% to 42% last month. The Libertarian is at 7%.

Cuccinelli still has horrible favor ability ratings (34% to 51%) while voters are split 38% to 38% on McAuliffe. I think this says way more about Terry's unpopularity since he can only muster a three point lead against an even more personally unpopular candidate.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/ken-cuccinelli-terry-mcauliffe-virginia-governor-2013-poll-96976.html (http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/ken-cuccinelli-terry-mcauliffe-virginia-governor-2013-poll-96976.html)

This is gonna be close.

Yeah, I think people are starting to realize that the alternative is, you know, Terry McAuliffe.

Shoot, Bill Bolling would have won this contest with ease had he been the GOP nominee.

And fortunately, Mcauliffe and Cuccinelli will be term limited.

Honestly, I continue to think it will be cuccinelli. People don't break a trend so easily...

The Cooch makes McAuliffe look like a saint.

Does anyone think the Bradley effect may come in to play here? I'm not sure if its a "real" thing or not. I do know that as a student, I (and several of my friends) are publicly claiming not to be voting for Cuccinelli, but we will. This is purely anecdotal of course, but I wasn't sure if this could be a factor.

There's more social pressure to be dishonest about your vote to a person you know or see face to face on a regular basis than there is to be dishonest about your vote to a pollster. 

No, it's because their previous poll didn't include Sarvis. McAullife's favorables are unchanged.

Except they totally do.

So... how's the Libertarian Candidate?

He's legit.
http://altdaily.com/features/news/6351-yes-virginia-there-is-a-third-candidate

Ok Thanks.

If this hasn't been posted already,

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/mcauliffe-camp-erupts-over-business-pacs-choice-of-cuccinelli-for-virginia-governor/2013/09/15/bd93558e-1e04-11e3-8459-657e0c72fec8_story.html

Anyone saw yesterday's debate?

I fell asleep actually during it. McCauliff doesn't know how he is gonna pay for Medicaid expansion and Cuccinelli doesn't know how he is gonna pay for his tax cuts.

Cuccinelli will win this race in the end.

I just do NOT see the traditional trend since 1977 ending anytime soon.

Considering the hatred for both candidates, maybe sixteen Virginians (not counting campaign staffers).

Looks like it will, dude. I'm sorry but there's no denial here, Virginia is clearly changing its political future, even if its not evident in this election due to bad candidates, it will clearly be evident in future elections. With that being said though, this state is still a toss-up in generic elections.

See, you are just wrong. Trends like that are dumb because they are just broken so easily. No one voting in this election cares about the trend. In 2012, everyone made a big deal that the winner of the South Carolina primary has always won the nomination. How'd that work out for Newt Gingrich? In 2008, everyone made a big deal out of the fact that no Republican who placed below third in Iowa ever won the nomination. McCain was fourth. These traditions just go away very easily. Have you seen this?

()

Well, I was worried a few days ago about how close the LG race was, but this should help that: (http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/ew-jackson-restraining-order-97420.html?hp=l1)

Wait, the LG race was close? I've never seen any polling on it.

Northam is only up 3. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=179580.msg3879751#msg3879751)

Good lord, they buried that deeply. I was just thinking the other day how we've never seen any polls of lower level races. Giving it a bit more attention in the story or graphic or even posting the question a bit higher in the poll might help.

I guess it's the African-American evangelical vote coming out. I think I mentioned this but when I was canvassing for Obama I met one black woman who said she wouldn't vote for him because of his stance on gay marriage. The ironic thing is that most of these people are pro-choice.

Not quite, it's because Northam has barely campaigned, assuming he could coast to victory on the idiocy of Jackson alone.

Larry Sabato makes the interesting point on twitter that the government shutdown could claim its first electoral victim in Cuccinelli:

@LarrySabato 40m
1st election victim of a long #shutdown will prob be an R: Ken Cuccinelli (VA GOV). Ds needed turnout spur in NoVa--now they've got it.

@LarrySabato 38m
Estimates are half of all inner NoVa extended families have at least 1 fed govt employee, now unpaid & angry. NoVa heavily D anyway.

Republicans have commited electoral suicide here. First with Cuccinelli and the McDonnell scandal, now this, especially in Virginia, only helps the democrats.

Poor Cooch. Stabbed in the back by his own Tea Party. Barring a last minute major revelation about McAuliffe's ethics problems, the shutdown just put the final nail in his coffin.

So get this, Ken Cuccinelli is going to give some remarks at the Family Foundation gala on Sunday. Guess who the main speaper of the event will be? Ted Cruz!

https://familyfoundation.org/gala/ (https://familyfoundation.org/gala/)

Horrible optics in any state right now, but especially in Virginia. Why would you agree to this during the middle of the shutdown? Does Cuccinelli really want to be attached to the hip with Senator Cruz the for the rest of the campgain?

Terry McAuliffe already has an ad up:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLDbe9DubIQ (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLDbe9DubIQ)

Yeah, Virginia will be ground zero for any electoral backlash the government shutdown has.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2013/10/04/ken_cuccinelli_says_the_shutdown_is_holding_one_part_of_government_hostage.html

Cuccinelli achieves RINO status, betrays the teabagger movement:

There's a (university) poll out showing Terry up five.

http://m.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/hampton-university-poll-shows-mcauliffe-with-an-edge-in-close-virginia-governors-race/2013/10/03/366f0ed8-2c7b-11e3-b139-029811dbb57f_story.html (http://m.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/hampton-university-poll-shows-mcauliffe-with-an-edge-in-close-virginia-governors-race/2013/10/03/366f0ed8-2c7b-11e3-b139-029811dbb57f_story.html)

it seems undecideds keep growing.

It should be noted that the alll these polls were conducted before the shutdown. Should be interesting to see how the mess in Washington affects this race.

There are rumors (http://bearingdrift.com/2013/10/03/exclusive-bill-bolling-to-endorse-terry-mcauliffe/) that Bolling will endorse and do a commercial for McAuliffe.

Wouldn't that just be the icing on the cake?

Anyway, Bolling 2017!

You misspelled Scozzafava.

Denials are starting to come in, so we'll have to see.

Bill Bolling is more conservative than Cuccinelli, at least he was (http://www.bluevirginia.us/diary/8240/is-bill-bolling-actually-more-conservative-than-ken-cuccinelli)

Some people can make political comeback :p.

It's been obvious for a while Bolling was going to endorse McAuliffe. He's just timing it for when it would have maximum impact, near the end.

Though I really don't know what his end game is. He'd never win a Republican primary (much less a convention) after this, but he's far too conservative to become a Democrat. Independent run in 2017?

I don't think you understand the Virginia Democratic Party.

Bolling is essentially a Cuccinelli style Republican but without the rancid personality and in-your-face-ness. Sure you could point to Crist, but at least he could point to several bipartisan and centrist policies he had while governor. There's no way Bolling could win a Democratic primary.

Sure he could. It's not about actual policies. It's about the centrist appearance. Democrats in the media love that. How else is Tim "47%" Kaine a Senator from Virginia? How about Chuck Robb?

Virginia has changed a lot. If you need proof, read Tim Kaine's platform in 2005 vs. his 2012 platform.

Yeah I don't think Bolling would or could run as a Democrat. When I said "Bill Bolling 2017!" I meant that I'd probably support him as a Republican (or also potentially an independent if this McAuliffe endorsement really happens) because McAuliffe is presumably going to do a very poor job causing Republicans to be heavily favored in 2017 (as well as a bad Democratic bench).

http://gawker.com/virginia-republican-totally-shunned-ted-cruz-last-night-1441720335

Cuccinelli had the common sense to not hang out with Ted Cruz at last night's fundraising gala, making a few short remarks that had nothing to do with Cruz, then running away before someone photographed them together.

Bill Bolling is not going to endorse McAuliffe.  He's not going to risk his political future to support an unpopular candidate.   

August 11, 2006 was the day Virginia politics changed.  Forever.

It's so bizarre and shouldn't be the case, but so true.

What happened on August 11, 2006?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r90z0PMnKwI

The world discovered the existence of a site named YouTube.

His political future in the Republican Party is already over. He was already tossed aside for not being sufficiently right wing enough, and the hate for him among the rank and file has grown even more because of the fact that he refuses to endorse Cuccinelli.

Sure he could. Isn't there a DINO running for Lt. governor right now?

It was THE day that Northern Virginia was politically galvanized into action.   

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/virginia-governor-election-cuccinelli-98089.html?hp=r5

Cuccinelli is scaling back his ad buys, meaning either A) The campaign is out of money or B) The GOP is giving up.


Either way, I'm declaring this campaign dead. TOD: 10/10/13

This one is going to get real ugly downballot for the GOP, methinks.

It was dead on October 1st at 12:01 AM.

The thought of Terry McAuliffe winning any elected public office (let alone Governor of a swing state) is astonishing and all of you would agree if you set aside your feelings on Cuccinelli.

Anyway, Terry will be an unquestionably disastrous Governor, most likely scandal plagued and extremely unpopular. VA Dems will be tagged as "McAuliffe Democrats" over the next few years and the GOP will benefit.

Cuccinelli is simply falling on his sword to ensure greater days to come. You all talk about the day that marked the end of this campaign. That's fine. I look at it this way though: Inauguration Day is when the VA GOP will be reborn.

If the Pubs continue to nominate an arch conservative republican in a purple state becoming blue, you can be sure the VA GOP won't be reborn.

I agree.

Virginia Republicans can't accuse anybody for corruption with a straight face thanks to Bob McDonnell.

You claim to know the future but what's stopping the Republicans in Virginia to be labelled "Cuccinelli Republicans" now? You always roll your eyes at people for making stupid predictions, but you just made one right there.

Is this meant to be a parody post?

I was skeptical of McAuliffe, but if Haley Barbour could change from a sleazy politico and lobbyist to an effective governor, so could McAuliffe.

Cuccinelli and his ilk are done in Virginia. His 2004-style politics are going to get more and more stale as Virginia grows more diverse.

It's a feeling I have based on McAuliffe's history and demeanor. It's not like the repeated idiotic predictions made with complete certitude about U.S. Senate elections that are three to five years away.

And...uh...I'm sure there are plenty of Republicans being labeled "Cuccinelli Republicans" now. That's a cool attack for now, I guess. It's going to be a different story when you have four years of the other guy in power.


Uh, no. The idea that McAuliffe will be unpopular or scandal plagued isn't some hack point. You can disagree but that doesn't make the suggestion a joke.

I think there's a decent chance he becomes unpopular, but I don't think his odds are any worse than any other politician. Counterintuitively, because he's not coming in as the messiah and because he's experienced (if little else), I think he benefits from low expectations. Also, Republicans are guaranteed to hold the Assembly, so he's got a foil.

Also, he's already so rich, and he's seen enough issues in public office, that I'm optimistic he won't be a scandal magnet. He's got 4 years to govern and he's out, that's not too long a time to keep his nose clean.

I don't see that he's headed for complete and utter disaster the way that, I don't know, you could tell with Paul LePage it was going to happen.

For background, I've been reading This Town the past few weeks so have a better sense of McAuliffe than I did before, when I thought he was just a stale fundraiser retread with zilch to offer. I don't love him, but he's not a joke.

2004-style?

Dems love referencing 2004. "It's not 2004 anymore!" It's their way of saying, "We've moved on from the Bush years/once pretty popular culturally conservative positions motivating the nation." It was a GOP base-driven time. You'll remember how exit polls showed that "moral issues" were the top concern for many voters that year. Gay marriage bans were on the ballot in many states, helping to turn out social conservatives. This was a low point for their party so they're naturally going to enjoy reminding themselves that those days are over.

Everybody who doesn't prey on hate enjoys being reminded of that.

Love it when you speak über hack to me, baby.

What's so hackish about what I said? These were the days when anti-gay and anti-muslim bigotry was almost a prerequisite for any self-respecting candidate.

Well, being gay married myself, my priority is for my own life and not for "my own party's lows." Yes, I enjoy reminding myself that we don't have a majority of Americans voting on my rights and blaming me for their own problems. What a partisan I am.

2002 was a lot worse for me as a Dem than 2004. 2004 was nasty because of the same-sex marriage bans, plus it was depressing that Bush won, but the Dems put up a fight and turned out, unlike 2002 when we gave up. And Bush's second term when to sh!t in record time.

He's a culture warrior and Bush-era Republican. It's been a while since Republican standard bearers put culture issues on the front burner like he has, and those days aren't combing back.

You were speaking as a partisan when you referred to Cuccinelli's style of politics, my friend. And I was generally referring to Dems, not specifically gays or gay Dems, when they say, "It isn't 2004 anymore!" They're obviously speaking from a partisan perspective.

While I understand that Cooch is a pathetic nutjob, if the GOP can't even stay somewhat competitive in non-Presidential elections in Virginia now, then the state has transitioned to blue even faster than I thought (and I've been the one saying it's transitioning much faster than everyone thinks).

Also, I live in NOVA and I'm not really seeing the cutback in stupid cooch ads.  I see a ton of his ads still.  They all suck and no-one here is going to vote for that jerk but it's not like the GOP has just given up... which makes the current poll numbers even more disturbing for them. 

It would be interesting if one of the polls did a breakdown by region.  I'd imagine (as usual) the problem for the GOP is based in NOVA even though they are probably doing alright in the rest of the state... they are probably just losing NOVA by an even larger margin than normal.

Yes, he was a Republican during the Bush era ???  And I don't see where he's campaigning as a culture warrior. 

Unfortunately, WDBJ Channel 7 is not letting Sarvis join the final debate because his RCP polling average (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2013/governor/va/virginia_governor_cuccinelli_vs_mcauliffe_vs_sarvis-4111.html) is at 9.4% instead of the 10% needed.  Even if he was included, I don't think he would take too many votes away the Republican side compared to the Democrats because both Cuccinelli and McAuliffe are subpar candidates.

Ron Paul is endorsing Cuccinelli (http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/ron-paul-endorses-ken-cuccinelli-virginia-governor-2013-elections-98208.html); I guess that doesn't bode well for Sarvis.

Looks like Rand's ambition takes precedence over Ron's principles. He likely would've made a 3rd party run in 2012 if not for Rand as well.

It is much more strategic for the liberty movement to go with Rand in 2016. Keep in mind, the Ron Paul generation is entering politics. Many young political staffers, and future State Party chairs and committee members are being born. The GOP will be the party of Paulism in the near future, once we expunge the Tea Party-neoconservative elements.

In the end, this is the right decision, though I still fantasize about a Paul/Johnson run in 2012.

If I had to guess:
Governor-TOSSUP: this one could go either way and it will depend on how big turnout is in the Old Dominion: if it's low, it helps Cuccinelli, but if it's high: it helps McAuliffe.

Lieutenant Governor-OPEN: Likely Democratic pick-up: Northam beats Jackson, 57-40.

State Attorney General-Too close to call, but I'll take my chances with GOP hold here.

Cuccinelli hasn't been leading a poll in 3 months and it was from the awful Roanoke College poll. Also he's pulled advertisements down and the party has pulled back its money support. This is practically over.

Ouch. (http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/terry-mcauliffe-outraises-ken-cuccinelli-virginia-governor-election-2013-98358.html?hp=r6)

In fairness, I know many, many Democrats who have 0 problem with anti-Muslim sentiment/bigotry.

The only real question is how much of Sarvis' poll support comes from people who don't like either McAuliffe or Cuccinelli but still intend to vote for one of those two when their vote counts.  I suspect at least half, as usual for a libertarian, so I have McAuliffe ≥50% in my prediction (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2013/pred.php?action=indpred&id=185).

The Richmond Times Dispatch's non-endorsement seems to hurt Cuccinnelli the most: (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/10/21/the-richmond-times-dispatchs-non-endorsement-and-what-it-means/)

I normally don't believe polls are wrong, but in this race, I think that Cuccinelli will pull off a huge upset.

If he were running against anyone else, I would not say this, but McAuliffe is such a consensus sleazebag that I've got to think that a number of folks in the middle will gag on him.  Virginia has some moderate Republicans, and they will, in the end, stick with Cuccinelli, only because McAuliffe is a sleazeball. 

McAuliffe is a sleazeball to the point where it is hard to imagine how he will effectively govern.  He will never be able to garner popularity to put forth his own legislative program.  He's damaged goods before he's even elected.  And there's 2 weeks to bring people to see this.  Cuccinelli's baggage is ideological to a point, but McAuliffe's is personal, and it's there for good.

And Cuccinelli doesn't have personal baggage? Doesn't he have the same kind of corruption problems that McDonnell has?

Yeah, he's taken $18,000 in "gifts" from the same company, Star Scientific, that has McDonnell's butt in a sling.

http://www.timesdispatch.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/cuccinelli-discloses-more-gifts-from-star-scientific-ceo/article_9b2bcfc8-ed4c-574c-9746-3fdd387e7ec3.html

And there's this:

http://www.baconsrebellion.com/2013/06/cuccinelli-penguins-and-natural-gas.html

http://www.tricities.com/news/local/article_24c925c8-09f9-11e3-935a-0019bb30f31a.html

Lots of reasons to dislike Cooch.  Given all the scandals, it is ironic that McAuliffe will actually be a reformer.

PPP has McAuliffe up 57-39 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/178109125/VA-Gov-PPP-for-LCV-Oct-2013-Early-Voters-Only) with early voters. Sarvis is only getting 3%.

Good news!

New Rasmussen Poll

McAuliffe ahead 50-33-8.   Not a typo

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2013/virginia/election_2013_virginia_governor

Will the democrats gain the lower house if the margin is big?

Not a chance. They are currently almost in super-minority.

At least, I hope the Pubs will lose their supermajority!

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=112256.0

Well, I guess it was done before redistricting. But Northam's district seems to be more a "toss up district" than a "lean rep district". Tilt rep maybe.

It has a good Dem lean to it after redistricting.  Obama and Kaine both got about 58% and even the statewide Dem candidates who were getting their brains beaten in statewide in 2009 came close to winning here (the lt. Gov candidate actually won it while losing statewide by 14 points).

Have you the new PVI for the virginia state senate please?

SD-01:  D+6
SD-02:  D+19
SD-03:  R+13
SD-04:  R+11
SD-05:  D+23
SD-06:  D+6
SD-07:  R+2
SD-08:  R+5
SD-09:  D+21
SD-10:  EVEN
SD-11:  R+9
SD-12:  R+7
SD-13:  R+5
SD-14:  R+10
SD-15:  R+12
SD-16:  D+18
SD-17:  R+2
SD-18:  D+15
SD-19:  R+13
SD-20:  R+3
SD-21:  D+5
SD-22:  R+6
SD-23:  R+18
SD-24:  R+16
SD-25:  D+8
SD-26:  R+13
SD-27:  R+11
SD-28:  R+9
SD-29:  D+8
SD-30:  D+16
SD-31:  D+12
SD-32:  D+12
SD-33:  D+6
SD-34:  D+7
SD-35:  D+17
SD-36:  D+12
SD-37:  D+7
SD-38:  R+12
SD-39:  D+7
SD-40:  R+20

Democrats amazingly hold the 38th in coal country, but the next reddest they hold is D+5.

Thank you!

Rasmussen is a big outlier it seems, because Quinnipiac has it D+7 today.


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=1968

"It's not over yet..."

I agree with Phil. Cooch litterally scares me, I think he could do an upset... (Though Mcauliffe is favored).

"Yeah... it is"

DKE moved the race to Likely Dem.

...I was mocking my infamous comment from 2006, pal.

Wasn't here then, what was the context?

Then you really don't matter.

Santorum will win maybe? :p

Ouch

Yes this is late, but Wish Virginia Democrats (not voters because they had no choice) used this opportunity to put forward a fresh progressive candidate. This was always a winnable race, for the life of me I don't understand why there wasn't options other than Terry McAullife.

Tom Perriello said no, and that's as far as the Virginia Democratic bench goes.

Virginia is still Purple though despite recent Dem gains.

The General Assembly is GOP controlled: the House of Delegates is staying Red for awhile due to gerrymandering and redistricting, while the State Senate has a chance of flipping back Blue.

omg no way

George Will's column is on Sarvis today:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/george-f-will-robert-sarvis-virginias-other-choice-for-governor/2013/10/23/1544f8d6-3b5c-11e3-b6a9-da62c264f40e_story.html

Not strictly an endorsement, but is positive toward his campaign.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ratings-change-a-democratic-tide-in-virginia/ (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ratings-change-a-democratic-tide-in-virginia/)

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball Changes:

Governor: Lean Dem -> Likely Dem
Lt. Governor: Likely Dem -> Safe Dem
AG: Toss Up -> Lean Dem
House of Delegates: Dem Gain of 6-8 seats

Has Virginia become NJ?

No, the GOP just nominated the freak show as their ticket. If Bolling was running it would probably be a pure toss up, or maybe even tilt R.

No, but it could be if it continues like this. What were seeing here is the Shutdown affect, the Tea Party, and McDonnell's scandal all coming in at once to form a anti-republican storm. This is more of a once-in-a-while/unusual election rather than a traditional normal precedent election.

I'm liking this election for us Democrats (I would vote for Sarvis though)

No. If they were running an actual conservative who wasn't crazy (not just Bolling), then they would have this sh**t in the bag. The only reason that the crook is winning is because he's running against a kook. I've talked to a former Republican congressman, and he's voting for Sarvis because "the only other two choices are a snake oil salesman and a fascist."

To change the subject completely, have you ever by any chance met Tom Davis?

No. He served another state before taking a job in Virginia. Heard great things though, and I'd vote for him over TMac.

So when will the other shoe drop on Blinghazi? I was hoping it would be before the election.

Virginia poll: Majority view NRA favorably

By JAMES HOHMANN | 10/26/13 2:09 PM EDT

RICHMOND, Va. — A majority of Virginians view the National Rifle Association favorably, according to a poll conducted for the gun lobby.

The October survey, shared with POLITICO, asked 800 likely voters in the governor’s race if they generally agree with the goals and objectives of the NRA.

Thirty percent said they “strongly favor” and 21 percent said they “somewhat favor” the group’s goals. On the other side, 26 percent said they strongly oppose the group and 12 percent somewhat oppose.

The two candidates running for governor — Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Ken Cuccinelli — have sharply different views on the gun issue. Both view it as a winning issue.

There is a significant regional divide in opinion. In Northern Virginia, the NRA survey found that critics of the group outnumber the sympathizers, 46 percent to 43 percent.

Outside of the D.C. media market, the NRA has a 19-point advantage in favorability.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/virginia-poll-nra-98886.html#ixzz2isSgEXWN

My bet on how Virginia will look like in November:

Governor-McAuliffe (D) by 8 points (53-45) or maybe smaller 51-45
Lieutenant Governor-Northam (D) by 17 points (57-40) or 19 (58-39) since Jackson is a HORRIBLE candidate
State Attorney General-Obenshain (R) by a narrow margin, 50-49

The last time the VA Dems swept all statewide offices was in 1989.

@ThePlumLineGS: New WaPo poll: McAuliffe now leads 51-39; Cuccinelli losing among women by 24: http://t.co/moIXe0oX9G

@daveweigel: WaPo poll also has Herring jumping to 3-point lead over Obenshain in AG race.

Terry McAuilffe winning in a landslide is almost literally nauseating.

I can't wait to see a county map

You brought it upon yourselves.

If Herring wins however, Republicans can be theoretically considered strong favourites to pick up his senate seat; the Democratic elected base here is virtually non-existant and the GOP has some top-class candidates like Tom Rust who could run (especially if Rust loses his district, which is incidentally the bluest district within Herring's seat at around 60% Obama).

Herring's district is  D+6.

Yes and that's a very over simplistic line to follow. Have you basically ignored what I just said?

It's our fault Virginians are Italophobic? That's what this is really about.

lolwut

Tell us more.

McAuliffe leading by 12 points ? WOW, I'll believe it until I see the official returns on Nov. 5th.

The State AG's race is going to the one for everyone to watch.

Ah yes, because Cuccinelli's swarthy complexion is what's really the issue.

I'm glad someone understands.

Oooops sorry!

Herring's seat is 60% Obama and the district excludes the parts of Loudoun county that are toxic to Dems.  Think of this seat as one that cobbles together the most Dem parts of Loudoun and also parts of Fairfax(where Dems are much stronger).

()

T-Mac's spending advantage and the sad end of Kook's campaign, in one graph.

McDonnell's unpopularity is NOT helping Cuccinelli any matters.

Since this race is all but over any guesess on the 2017 nominees?

Tom Perriello or Chap Petersen for the Democrats.

Chopra upsets Northam for the Dem Nom, and if Obenshain wins the ATtorney General job, he will most certainly be the nominee. If not, Republicans are kind of deep sh**t in Virginia, but maybe a congressman like Robert Hurt or Scott Riggell, or, hell, even Bob McDonnell again.

What's really impressive is that McAuliffe has a positive favorability rating. How is that even possible when it seems like most Democrats don't even like him?

Ken Cuccinelli MADE it possible.

As Kos mentions repeatedly, he ran an unapologetically liberal  campaign, going as far as championing an assault weapons ban.
Thus he surprised pleasantly all liberals who saw him until a few months ago as the living embodiment of Third Way/DLC politics.

Why is Terry McAuilffe considered to be so mediocre?

Because he's the definition of "Generic Democrat". He's mainly known for being unprincipled, and mainly cares only about Democrats winning elections.

I don't know if people here watch Scandal, but he reminds me of Cyrus Beene.

It is an unattractive but important trait in pols in states that are trying to turn disillusionment of the other guys into actual support for them.

Shades of Phil circa 2006 with the PA Senate race but...

New Quinnipiac shows McAuliffe only up 45% to 41% with 4% undecided - http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/virginia-governor-race-ken-cuccinelli-terry-mcauliffe-poll-99080.html?hp=r3 (http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/virginia-governor-race-ken-cuccinelli-terry-mcauliffe-poll-99080.html?hp=r3)

With Sarvis out of the question, McAuliffe's lead is down to two points. Only 62% of Sarvis voters are said to be definitely voting for him.

Seems like undecided Republican voters are coming home. 

Most of the early vote came when McAuliff had a 7 pt lead anyways. The lead will be cut in half from 8 to 4 on Election Day based on GOP turnout on same day voting.

How about it being an outlier?
Cuccinelli has been abandoned by national Republicans and his campaign's spending has been decreasing for a month now. That's the surest sign we'll ever have that his case is hopeless.

Oh, it may be an outlier. But I do expect his numbers to go up (he's not really going to get 39%!) and I'm sure the undecideds and Sarvis voters include a lot of Republicans who will end up voting for him even as he loses.

Either 50-45-5 or 51-44-5 is my final prediction for this race. Cuccinelli doesn't really have a shot at winning this race.

Weren't we expecting the same thing to happen with Todd Akin?

Bubba endorsement video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmpOG6tyFjo)

The AWB is something the DLC quite strongly supported. So hes won liberals over by talking up the DLC platform, how surprising.

From RRH. (http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/3400/political-roundup-for-october-30-2013) Two of the worst-regarded pollsters have their (I'm assuming) final polls out:

From Cuccinelli's Twitter



The definition of loserspeak

And the worst of them all has Cuccinelli down by one. 41-40-10. (http://www.wenzelstrategies.com/blog/polls/)

I'm honestly questioning whether they're making numbers up or not. Phil's poll says it's an outlier, but it's actually semi-reasonable for a floor. This is just based completely out of reality.

Time to break out J.J.'s rules of elections...

Phil's poll. Has a nice ring to it. Maybe Phil's Political Polling or PPP.

Sadly, though, it wasn't "Phil's poll." It was Quinnipiac.

I know. Still underscores my point that Wenzel is crap.

Does anyone know if McAuliffe is for or against the death penalty ?

Didn't find a lot on Google ...

Hmmm. Not entirely sure but Bill and Hillary are still for it, right? That probably gives you your answer.

Virginia Dems have released a new ad highlighting Santorum's campaigning on behalf of Cuccinelli.

Remember what I said about Italophobia...?

Democrats were also itching to catch a photo of Cooch together with Ted Cruz. Does that mean they are Hispanophobic too?

Fox News brought up a poll, claiming Cuccinelli has the mojo going into Tuesday's big election.

If I were McAuliffe, I would NOT want Obama near you because Obamacare is UNPOPULAR.

One, Fox News lol

Two, https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=181521.msg3923029#msg3923029 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=181521.msg3923029#msg3923029)

Doug, is that you?

Who's Doug ?

This is TX Conservative Dem (aka Steve Boudreaux from PoliticalDog101.com)

You almost got me fooled Doug.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Schoen (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Schoen)

My name is STEVE BOUDREAUX of San Antonio, Texas

Check out my facebook and twitter pages.

First of all, Phil isn't being serious. And px, leave the kid alone. Jesus.

Ignore him.  He used to be on ourcampaigns, and was banned.  After that, he attempted to get back on using about 26 different sock puppet accounts, all of which were quickly banned as well.

Here's a question. Will Gov. McAuliffe be the first Virginia governor in living memory to *not* be considered a potential presidential nominee after he wins?

So what you're saying is McAuliffe will end up being President?

Yes.

Last PPP poll is 50-43-4   Herring 47-45

Also 52-39 Northam.

At least you've posted a poll from a reputable pollster this time. :P

A couple interesting things in those PPP crosstabs:

- Apparently the age group that loves Cuccinelli the most is 18-29? I'm skeptical.
- Very liberal/somewhat liberal voters and Obama voters have a higher favorable opinion of Bill Bolling than somewhat conservative/very conservative voters and Romney voters.

Don't get too caught up on subsamples.

I think the only person who considered Jim Gilmore a potential presidential nominee was himself.  McAuliffe may end up in that category as well.

Today's the day!

T-Mac's campaign reporting heavy turnout in black precincts and other Dem strongholds in Arlington and Richmond (https://twitter.com/DomenicoNBC/status/397767090288877568)

dominating.

Hopefully good news for the AG race (if accurate).

Just got back from voting, I'm very excited for the results!

Probably means EW Jackson wins. Blacks usually vote for black candidates, no matter if they are democrat or republican.

Gov. Blackwell, sure, agrees with your assessment

http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/elections/Research/electResultsMain/2006ElectionsResults/06-1107GovLieutGov.aspx

False. Blacks vote for candidates with (D)'s next to their name.

Some early exit polling coming out:



http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/liveblog-live/liveblog/live-updates-election-day-2013/?id=2581f6e5-ee39-4b0f-9109-b80405fc52f7 (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/liveblog-live/liveblog/live-updates-election-day-2013/?id=2581f6e5-ee39-4b0f-9109-b80405fc52f7)

CNN Exit Poll Results:

T-Mac: 50%
Kooch: 43%
Sarvis: 7%

http://electionresults.virginia.gov/ShowMap.aspx?iframe&cat=CTY&rid=315&type=SWR&osn=4&pty=0&cty=0&map=CTY

http://electionresults.virginia.gov/resultsCTY.aspx?type=SWR&rid=315&osn=4&map=CTY

http://electionresults.virginia.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=SWR&map=CTY

Virginia election map, city and county results, and statewide! :)

Northam declared winner by NBC.

If any Republicans try to argue their Virginia ticket lost because they weren't conservative enough, I will lose my s&@#.

If they want to re-learn how to win elections in non-gerrymandered statewide races, Chris Christie showed them how this evening.

McAullife is losing the raw vote by 8 points, and ahead in the exit polls between 8 to 10.

Northam is currently leading by two.

If the raw vote right now is 16 to 18% more Republican..

Could Northam break the 60% margin in Virginia?

While I was typing this, NBC declared Virginia governors race as too close to call and surprise! Christie won big.

But they just announced the weighted exit poll results. Much closer: 47-45-7

Terrified by the results so far.

Me too...

McAullife now down by five, many rural Republican counties and large Democratic counties haven't finished votes. The big three near D.C. isn't nearly finished reporting precincts.

McAullife now down by 3 1/2.

48.03% Cuccinelli
44.66% McAuliffe

Meanwhile in the AG's race, Obenshain's up by 6: 53-47.

Northam up by 5, winning many counties that Cuccinelli won.

52.69% Northam
47.10% Jackson

Obenshein up by 6

52.92% Obenshein
46.95% Herring

Cuccinelli up by 2.3

47.52% Cuccinelli
45.22% McAullife

Northam up by 6.5

53.17% Northam
46.61% Jackson

Obenshain up by 4.9

52.40% Obenshain
47.47% Herring

Cuccinelli up by 1.9

47.35% Cuccinelli
45.42% McAullife

Northam up by 6.7

53.27% Northam
46.51% Jackson

Obenshain up by 4.7

52.28% Obenshain
47.59% Herring

Many counties, which most of the votes will be for McAullife, Northam, Herring, have not been counted yet, but turnout should be higher in the Republican counties remaining.

Cuccinelli up by 0.9

46.87% Cuccinelli
45.95% McAullife

Northam up by 7

53.66% Northam
46.12% Jackson

Obenshain up by 3.6

51.69% Obenshain
48.18% Herring

Damn, Norfolk. Get it together!

But according to a poll out last week, Sarvis voters were more likely to support McAuliffe than Cuccinelli as their second choice. (http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2013/11/virginia-liveblog-governors-race-still-grabs/71290/)

Cuccinelli up by 0.5

46.72% Cuccinelli
46.21% McAuliffe

Northam up by 8.4

54.09% Northam
45.69% Jackson

Obenshain up by 2.8

51.31% Obenshain
48.55% Herring

84.57% of the vote is in.

There's only 300 precincts left, about 2/3 of them are in Democratic leaning counties

It looks like Republican counties are about to max out.

Cuccinelli up by 0.03

46.51% Cuccinelli
46.48% McAuliffe

Northam up by 8.43

54.11% Northam
45.68% Jackson

Obenshain up by 2.66

51.27% Obenshain
48.61% Herring

87.64% of the vote is in.

Any guesses as to whether Mark Herring will win?

Only down by 2.6, with 13% of precincts uncalled mostly in Democratic territory. It's going to be extremely close.

McAuliffe up by 0.40

46.71% McAuliffe
46.31% McAuliffe

Northam up by 9.02

54.41% Northam
45.39% Jackson

Obenshain up by 2.08

50.98% Obenshain
48.90% Herring

90.95% of the vote is in.

McAuliffe is the projected winner.

McAuliffe now leads by only 0.3 % or about 5,000 votes.
With approx. 91 % of the votes counted so far.

Add this one to the list of winnable races the Tea Party has screwed up.  <3 <3 <3

Hope they never quit!

McAuliffe up by 1.07

47.02% McAuliffe
46.09% Cucinelli

Northam up by 9.24

54.52% Northam
45.28% Jackson

Obenshain up by 1.58

50.98% Obenshain
48.90% Herring

93.31% of the vote is in.

MSNBC can now project that Democratic candidate, Terry McAuliffe, is now going to be the Governor of the Commonwealth! 91% of the precincts are reporting and McAuliffe leads 47% (912,667) to Cuccinelli's 46% (907,582). As a result of this, Democrats going into the 2014 midterms will hold 21 Governor's seats while Republicans only 29 now.

Also, the newest Lieutenant Governor, no surprise will be Democrat, Ralph Northam which means not only is the Governorship going blue, but so is the Virginia State Senate! No word yet on the balance of power in the Virginia House of Delegates.

However, Obenshain/Herring is still too close to call with Obenshain having a very small lead. It's just questionable whether or not Obenshain can hold that lead and can hold onto the Attorney General's seat for the Republicans, or if that will also fall to the Democrats tonight.

McAuliffe up by 1.21

47.18% McAuliffe
45.97% Cucinelli

Northam up by 9.64

54.67% Northam
45.13% Jackson

Obenshain up by 1.30

50.59% Obenshain
49.29% Herring

95.24% of the vote is in.

In order for Herring to win, he needs to win 63% of the outstanding vote.

Yes it seems that all the networks and websites (including CNN and The New York Times) are calling the race and have McAuliffe as the projected winner.

With Cuccinelli attached to and supported by the "Tea Party," the end result (a loss) should not come as a big surprise to anyone with half-a-brain.

McAuliffe up by 1.44

47.32% McAuliffe
45.88% Cucinelli

Northam up by 9.79

54.80% Northam
45.01% Jackson

Obenshain up by 1.04

50.46% Obenshain
49.42% Herring

96.93% of the vote is in.

Anyone got county maps?

Beet,
Go over to The New York Times website for "county maps."
If you place your pointer on each county, it gives you the numbers for each major candidate and the percentage reporting for that county.

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/elections/guide/2013/VA/general/?hpid=z3

McAuliffe up by 1.62

47.43% McAuliffe [Projected Winner]
45.81% Cucinelli

Northam up by 9.95

54.88% Northam [Projected Winner]
44.93% Jackson

Obenshain up by 0.78

50.38% Obenshain
49.50% Herring

98.11% of the vote is in.

Unfortunately, I don't think that Herring will be able to jump that gap.

McAuliffe up by 1.55

47.20% McAuliffe [Projected Winner]
45.75% Cucinelli

Northam up by 9.78

54.74% Northam [Projected Winner]
44.96% Jackson

Obenshain up by 1.05

50.42% Obenshain
49.37% Herring

98.50% of the vote is in.


No, the Republican precincts are trickling in and it looks like these are going to be the results.

McAuliffe up by 1.75

47.35% McAuliffe [Projected Winner]
45.60% Cuccinelli

Northam up by 10.07

54.88% Northam [Projected Winner]
44.81% Jackson

Obenshain up by 0.65

50.27% Obenshain
49.52% Herring

98.98% of the vote is in.

McAuliffe up by 2.11

47.54% McAuliffe [Projected Winner]
45.43% Cucinelli
6.60% Sarvis

Northam up by 10.07

54.88% Northam [Projected Winner]
44.81% Jackson

Obenshain up by 0.59

50.19% Obenshain
49.60% Herring

99.21% of the vote is in.

Herring is now trailing by ~1400 votes.

McAuliffe up by 2.15

47.57% McAuliffe [Projected Winner]
45.42% Cucinelli
6.58% Sarvis
0.43% Write-in

Northam up by 10.48

55.05% Northam [Projected Winner]
44.65% Jackson
0.31% Write-in

Obenshain up by 0.29

50.07% Obenshain
49.72% Herring
0.21% Write-in

99.72% of the vote is in.

Obenshain leads by 7,459 votes with 7 precincts, in Democratic territory, remaining.

We may not know winner for a month or more due to absentee ballots being counted.

You know, it's funny, Cuccinelli was the only candidate who could have lost to McAuliffe, yet McAuliffe was one of the few candidates who could've lost to Cuccinelli.

Attorney General Vote:

Mark Herring: 1,098,388           50.014%
Mark Obenshain: 1,097,772     49.986%

Total vote: 2,196,160

There are also 4,404 write-in votes, according to the VA SBOE. I'd be very interested in knowing who those people voted.

Santa Claus is a very common choice

()

()

So why did McAuliffe underperform?

There goes that 9 election streak of the President's party losing.

Because he is a sleazebag?

Exactly. McAuliffe is objectively, well, a piece of sh**t. If this is the best that Republicans do against someone like him, they shouldn't be happy about the results.

Could we get a map on Obershain vs Herring?  It's not every day you have a statewide race decided by .02% of the vote.

Being Terry McAuliffe didn't help, for one.

Obenshain is ahead by 53 votes.

According to whom? Twitter and web sites are reporting multiple iterations, some with Herring ahead, all with the difference under a few hundred votes.

http://www.vpap.org/elections/live_results/nov_2013?race=attgen

Note that in 2009, Republicans won provisionals by only 51-49, while winning statewide 58-41. We won't know the result until later this week at least.

Apparently the spin around the right wing (from what I'm hearing) is that Obamacare sunk McAuliffe to the point where the Democrats had to fund Sarvis to siphon off votes.

So since McAuliffe only ended up narrowly beating the Cooch, that pretty much confirms Bolling would've won had he been the nominee. But what do you guys think the margin would've been?

My guess:

52% Bolling
46% McAuliffe
2% Sarvis

And that's an understatement.

I didn't really follow the race but, what made both candidates so unappealing?

McAuliffe is a soulless hack and Cuccinelli is a Neaderthal.

Ken Cuccinelli won 18-24 year olds by six points.

If that doesn't shoot down some talking points, I don't know what will.

What? How? What? What?!

Smells a LOT like standard subsample MoE.

I would take that with a grain of salt, but Cuccinelli lost 18-29 year olds overall by 5 points. Since McAuliffe won 25-29 year olds by fifteen points I guess that kind of makes sense.

Sarvis somehow took 15% percent of the 18-29 vote with every other demographic being around 5-6%.

The 18-24 vote would make sense if Sarvis took votes disproportionately from McAuliffe, which would also explain the unexpected narrow margin (The Cuccinelli 2nd choice people abandoned Sarvis for Cooch, while the McAuliffe 2nd choice people stuck with Sarvis). Maybe Cooch bringing in the Pauls helped?

I didn't see any exit polls. Where are they?

Here's the PDF report.  (http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/11/05/va.gov.exit.polls.1120p.110513.v2.final%5B1%5D.copy.pdf)

Sarvis got 7% liberal support, 10% moderate support, while only getting 3% conservative support. Seems like Sarvis actually hurt McAuliffe more than he hurt Cuccinelli.

I predicted earlier that the polls putting McAuliffe out in front at the level they put him were wrong.  I also predicted that the relative unsavory image of McAuliffe would enable Cuccinelli (who, whatever his issue positions, was not considered the sleazebag McAuliffe was in some circles) to mount a comeback, and, while he did not prevail, I believe that this is what happened.

Cuccinelli did not lose because of his social conservatism.  Cuccinelli lost because the national GOP gave up on the race.  Unwisely, I might add, because Terry McAuliffe was a candidate with an absolute slew of weaknesses.  It is a sign of weakness among the national GOP that they could not prevail on Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling to endorse Cuccinelli; this race was important to the national party and had implications beyond Virginia.  Failing to do so left the GOP with a Gubenatorial nominee unendorsed by a sitting Lt. Governor of his own party, who is now damaged goods in future elections because of his failure to endorse Cuccinelli, which weakened the GOP even further.  Cuccinelli was a vocal pro-lifer, but his issue positions weren't so far out of line as to be remarkable for a statewide VA candidate; he was no Todd Aiken and no Richard Murdouck.   The GOP needed to put more money into Cuccinelli's race, and it needed to twist a few arms of key Republicans to, at a minimum, endorse the ticket.  Virginia is steadily trending Democratic; one wonders why the national GOP, by ignoring a winnable race, chose to help that process along.

Didn't the national GOP give up on the race because Cuccinelli's social conservatism was leading him to poll so badly?

The GOP lost in Virginia precisely because of Cuccinelli's social conservatism. Although I am glad if the GOP does not learn that lesson.

But the fact that Cuccinelli got closer than Romney seems relevant.  Romney = worst possible candidate for rural populist voters and the suburbs didn't swing left as much as many though.  It almost makes you wonder if GOP could have flipped OH and VA in 2012 with a SoCon getting supercharged rural turnout.  Santorum was probably too far out in right field to stay near Romney numbers in the suburbs, but what about Huckabee?

One way of looking at is that McAuliffe's margin over Cuccinelli's was smaller. Another is that Romney got 47.28% of the vote, Cuccinelli got about 45.3% (as of now.) The 2013 electorate should have favored Cuccinelli. While he did better than predicted, really McAuliffe did worse than predicted, and McAuliffe was so much worse of a candidate than Obama...

But you also have the Libertarian , and most of his best counties overlapped with Cuccinelli's support.

The Obama coalition of young minorities just did not turn out to vote. They will turn out to vote for Presidential elections though. The GOP can learn some lessons on how to win in 2014 (they already know) but beyond that this means nothing. Cuccinelli would have lost by 7-8 points if the entire Obama coalition showed up to vote.

Difficult to conpare Romney vs. Cuccinelli because millions of 2012 voters didn't go to thr polls a week ago.

That's true, but the electorate last Tuesday was only 2% less diverse and 2% less Dem than the Obama 2012 electorate.  And McAuliffe finished... 2% behind Obama!

So the more diverse presidential electorate is a factor.  And G.W. Bush has shown that enough minority voters will give an populist SoCon R a second look.  Although that needle gets harder to thread every year.  It's worth noting, however that the Evangelical numbers are even more unanimous for the GOP now than they were for Bush.  A lot of people suspected Romney would have an Evangelical problem.  Instead, they broke stronger for him than Bush!

The Cuccinelli campaign didn't do any polling after October 18 because they couldn't afford it (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/06/obamacare-virginia-governor_n_4229062.html).

There's a real argument to be made that when the disastrously bad Obamacare rollout supplanted the then-resolved federal shutdown in the news cycle, Cooch attempted to make his election a referendum on Obamacare. The effect was to allow Cooch to recover some ground lost among swing voters during the shutdown and simultaneously make back ground on an issue the same swing voters feel negatively towards Obama and Democrats over.

There was a limit to how much this could pay off in a state election as opposed to a federal race, but to the extent it could work, it did. There's little way the RGA and RNC could predict the Obamacare rollout giving Cooch such an unexpected opportunity to turn things around in such short a period, so the decision to pull resources made sense without 20/20 hindsight. However, if the funding had been fully committed all along to capitalize on this late swing, there would've been at least a fighting chance the GOP could've converted this narrow loss into a win.

More than lessons about Obamacare or the shutdown or extremism, this shows just how much the final dominant news stories in a campaign season can change everything.

A socon like Huckabee would have performed poorly in some of the R-voting suburbs and exurbs though, particularly in NOVA.