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Title: What would each candidate have been trading on Intrade.... Post by: Phony Moderate on May 04, 2013, 01:14:32 PM ....one day before election day in the following election years?
1912 - 1936 - 1948 - 1960 - 1968 - 1976 - 1980 - 1992 - No 2000, 2004, 2008 or 2012 as it actually existed (in some form) during those years . Title: Re: What would each candidate have been trading on Intrade.... Post by: Thomas D on May 12, 2013, 09:52:42 AM I never went on Intrade so I don't know how they posted numbers. So I'll just post what the Persons % chance of victory was on the day in question
1912- Wilson 70% TR 25% Taft 5% 1936- FDR 85% Landon 15% 1948- Dewey 65% Truman 34 % Wallace 1% 1960- Nixon 53% Kennedy 47% 1968- Nixon 55% Humphrey 44% Wallace 1% 1976 Carter 54% Ford 46% 1980 Reagan 55% Carter 44% Anderson 1% 1992 Clinton 68% Bush 25% Perot 7% Title: Re: What would each candidate have been trading on Intrade.... Post by: Nichlemn on May 13, 2013, 08:09:07 PM 1936- FDR 85% Landon 15% I'm guessing that given the famously wrong Literary Digest poll, Landon would be doing better than that, more like 30%. Quote 1948- Dewey 65% Truman 34 % Wallace 1% I think Dewey does better, given how much of a shock Truman winning was, maybe 80%. Quote 1992 Clinton 68% Bush 25% Perot 7% I don't think any polls showed Perot close to striking distance near the end, so I think he's more like 3% and it's still a sucker bet. Title: Re: What would each candidate have been trading on Intrade.... Post by: Mr.Phips on May 27, 2013, 05:54:45 PM I never went on Intrade so I don't know how they posted numbers. So I'll just post what the Persons % chance of victory was on the day in question 1912- Wilson 70% TR 25% Taft 5% 1936- FDR 85% Landon 15% 1948- Dewey 65% Truman 34 % Wallace 1% 1960- Nixon 53% Kennedy 47% 1968- Nixon 55% Humphrey 44% Wallace 1% 1976 Carter 54% Ford 46% 1980 Reagan 55% Carter 44% Anderson 1% 1992 Clinton 68% Bush 25% Perot 7% 1976 sounds about right. For 1960, I'd say Kennedy in the high 50s given what the electoral college looked like. For 1968, I'd put Nixon a little higher and for 1980 , I'd put Reagan a lot higher. The electoral math looked really tough for Carter even though he was running about even in national vote polls. More like high 70s for Clinton in 1992. Bush really had no EV path. |