Talk Elections

44-41 Christie/Clinton
46-45 Rubio/Clinton

48-32 Christie/Biden
48-35 Rubio/Biden

Favorables:

49-17 Christie
39-22 Rubio
53-44 Clinton
39-49 Biden

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

43-54

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=1908

Ughh, Biden ... :P

...

Biden is a nice guy, but for electoral reasons I don't really want him to run in 2016.

On the other hand, Biden is a guy who could likely erase a 20-point deficit with a funny quote or something ... ;)

This confirms the PPP result, at least in that Clinton does worse in CO than in any of the traditional swing states they've polled.  Are you ready for a retro-90s map in which Clinton does better in Arkansas and Kentucky than she does in Colorado and Virginia?

Also, the gender gap continues to be enormous in these 2016 matchups:

Men:
Rubio 53%
Clinton 36%

Women:
Clinton 53%
Rubio 38%

So that's a net differential of 32 points?!?

Hillary has certainly fallen back in KY during the last weeks too. Still she would do considerably better there than Obama (maybe trail the Republicans, especially Paul, there by 5 now after PPP has shown a tie there recently ?)

VA has evolved since the 90s. I think Hillary does well there, compared with Bill's VA result. I think she would do better in VA than in KY.

AR is a special case, I would like to see some polls from there. Hillary has always polled very high there.

Obama was the right candidate - he was the exception for the Democrats there, not the rule.

I mean, even Hickenlooper only won there because of how much of a joke the race became because of the other two candidates.

Hillary is stronger in the South which would help with states like North Carolina.

That said, I doubt that Colorado would flip back. It will likely be foreseeably blue (atlas red)

Even Sen. Michael Bennet was able to survive reelected in 2010.

Could this be seen as a reaction to the very liberal legislative session that just happened?

I doubt it. Clinton has generally been weaker in the west and stronger in the south.

If Obama's approvals improve, Hillary should do fairly well here.  It will probably be more Republican than 2012, but I can see her taking the state narrowly thanks to the demographic changes.

Quinnipiac continues to live in a world of delusion.

Yup. Obama was suppose to lose Colorado last year according to Quinnipiac.

There is no way Hillary loses the white vote by only 10 and loses the state while winning Hispanics with same numbers as Obama in 2012. Obama lost whites by 10 and won here by over 5. If this poll has only midterm voters its more understandable.

I think a Hillary-Rubio swing map would look something like this

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That poll was done right after the 1st presidential debate, in which Obama sucked.

The debate was on Oct. 3 and the poll was done Oct. 4-9.

Besides, a poll done a month before the election does not say much.

Quinnipiac's final polls in other states were very good.

Quinnipiac has also been releasing some questionable polls like Tancredo tied with Hickenlooper.

No, Quinnipiac didn't poll Colorado in 2010.

They only polled there during the 2008 and 2012 Presidential races as part of a swing state series and this poll here is their first regular CO poll.

No. I mean yesterday: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/06/13/poll-tancredo-neck-and-neck-with-hickenlooper/

Why do you think this is questionable ?

The CO legislature just approved a series of liberal and sometimes polarizing measures.

And Hickenlooper basically ended the death penalty during his term, something that is opposed by ca. 7/10 Colorado voters.

That could easily lead to a tie in the Gov. race right now.

There is actually just as much support in countries that have abolished it as Colorado.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_in_the_United_Kingdom#Public_support_for_reintroduction_of_capital_punishment

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Tied yes, but tied at like 39 or 40% and that is basically Tom got in 2010, plus a point or two. I don't think Tancredo can get above 45% in Colorado in any environment. He would need a left wing third party to split the vote and that isn't going to happen. What the situation does provide, is an invitation for someone more credible to dive in and run like Penry (I haven't been following him lately, so if he has done an Edwards or something I wouldn't know), or perhaps Suthers. Either could win statewide and either would have won in 2010 in my opinion.

He can also enlarge his deficit with a terrible gaffe!

http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1895156_1894977_1841630,00.html

http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1895156_1894977_1643323,00.html

But we do have great moments:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHKq9tt50O8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bx3YPWGA-Mw

Clinton does best in NH, OH, and NV. This poll shows how unpredictable CO and Iowa will be in 2016.

Looks like we got a poll truther over here!

Didn't Quinnipac say that Hickenlooper's approvals have dived?

Well you know, Colorado was sort of in dispute through much of the last election, basically polling as tied most of the time..  So this is hardly any different.