Talk Elections

Florida Gov. Rick Scott trails former Gov. Charlie Crist 47 – 37 percent in his 2014 reelection bid, compared to his 16-point deficit in March, and gets his best job approval rating so far, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Crist, the Republican-turned independent-turned Democrat, was up 50 – 34 percent in a March 20 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University.

In today’s survey, U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, who some Democrats are pushing to run for governor, tops Scott 48 – 38 percent, running as well as Crist. The incumbent would defeat former state Senate Democratic leader Nan Rich 42 – 36 percent.

Voters are divided 43 – 44 percent in their job approval for Gov. Scott, his highest approval rating since he was elected and up from a negative 36 – 49 percent score March 20.

Voters still say 50 – 35 percent that Scott does not deserve to be reelected, but that also is his best score so far on that question, better than the 55 – 32 percent ‘no’ vote in March.

Scott gets a divided 40 – 42 percent favorability rating, but that also is up from a negative 33 – 46 percent favorability rating March 20, and his best score so far.

“It is an indication of how far down Florida Gov. Rick Scott’s numbers have been that he can take some solace from a poll that finds him losing by 10 points to his predecessor in the governor’s office,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “In addition to cutting the deficit between himself and former Gov. Charlie Crist, Gov. Scott sees his tepid job approval and favorability numbers and his still-negative reelection numbers as notably improved.”

“Now that doesn’t mean that happy days are here again for the governor, but if he is going to make a comeback these are the kind of steps that would be required. Whether it is the start of something larger, we’ll see in the coming months,” Brown added.

By 48 – 31 percent Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Crist, virtually unchanged.

Sen. Nelson has a 41 – 23 percent favorability rating and a 51 – 29 percent job approval, while 84 percent of voters haven’t heard enough about Ms. Rich to form an opinion of her.

In a possible matchup between Scott and Crist, the governor carries Republicans 75 – 13 percent, but loses Democrats 83 – 8 percent and independent voters 45 – 33 percent. Men are tied 43 – 43 percent, while women back Crist 51 – 32 percent.

“For Scott to win, he will have to do better among Republicans than Crist does among Democrats; carry independent voters and drastically reduce his deficit among women. That’s a tall order, but there are 17 months until the election,” Brown said.

Crist’s change in party affiliation is positive evidence of political pragmatism, 47 percent of voters say. Another 44 percent of voters say this is negative evidence that Crist lacks core beliefs. In March, 50 percent of voters said Crist’s party switching was a good thing, compared to 40 percent who saw it as a bad thing.

One reason that Scott may be edging up in the voters’ eyes is that by 33 – 18 percent voters say the state’s economy is getting better, compared to 31 – 21 percent who felt that way in March. Among those who see an improving economy 65 percent give at least a little credit to President Barack Obama, while 82 percent credit Scott.

“The governor needs to make voters believe he is responsible for a better economy. That’s the key to his electoral future. He isn’t going to get re-elected because he is Mr. Personality. He needs to essentially convince voters, ‘You may not like me, but I’m the guy who
is making things better,’” Brown said.