Talk Elections

This took me 5 hours to complete, but here it is - data for every election in which the Republican Party and Democratic Party has competed.


Year     Tipping Point State      Electoral Votes      State Margin     National Margin

2012           Colorado                              9                     D+5.37%            D+3.76%

2008           Colorado                              9                     D+8.95%            D+7.27%

2004           Ohio                                   18                    R+2.11%             R+2.46%

2000           Florida                                25                    R+0.01%             D+0.52%

1996          Pennsylvania                       23                    D+9.20%             D+8.52%

1992          Tennessee                           11                    D+4.65%             D+5.56%

1988:         Michigan                             20                     R+7.90%             R+7.73%

1984:         Michigan                             20                     R+18.99%           R+18.22%

1980:         Illinois                                26                      R+7.93%             R+9.74%

1976:         Wisconsin                           11                      D+1.68%             D+2.06%

1972:         Maine                                  4                       R+22.98%           R+23.15%

1968:         Ohio                                   26                      R+2.28%             R+0.70%

1964:         Washington                         9                       D+24.59%           D+22.58%

1960:         Missouri                              13                      D+0.52%             D+0.16%

1956:         Florida                                10                      R+14.54%           R+15.40%

1952:         Michigan                             20                      R+11.47%           R+10.85%

1948:        California                             25                      D+0.44%             D+4.48%

1944:        New York                             47                      D+5.01%             D+7.49%

1940:        Pennsylvania                       36                       D+6.89%             D+9.95%

1936:        Ohio                                    26                       D+20.56%           D+24.25%

1932:        Iowa                                    11                       D+17.71%           D+17.76%

1928:        Illinois                                  29                       R+14.65%           R+17.42%

1924:        Rhode Island                         5                        R+23.17%           R+25.22%

1920:        Rhode Island                         5                        R+31.19%           R+26.17%

1916:        California                              13                       D+0.38%            D+3.12%

1912:        New York                              45                       D+12.60%          D+14.44%

1908:        West Virginia                         7                         R+10.25%          R+8.53%

1904:        New Jersey                           12                        R+18.63%          R+18.83%               

1900:        Illinois                                   24                       R+8.39%            R+6.13%

1896:        Ohio                                      23                       R+4.78%            R+4.31%

1892:        Wisconsin                              13                       D+1.68%            D+3.01%

1888:        New York                               36                       R+1.09%            D+0.83%

1884:        New York                               36                       D+0.10%            D+0.57%

1880:        New York                               35                       R+1.91%            R+0.10%

1876:        South Carolina                        7                        R+0.49%            D+3.00%

1872:        New Hampshire                      5                         R+8.33%            R+11.80%

1868:        Arkansas                                5                         R+7.37%            R+5.33%

1864:        Illinois                                    16                       R+8.84%            R+10.08%

1860:        New York                                35                       R+7.43%            R+10.13%

1856:        Kentucky                                12                       D+5.09%            D+12.20%

Wonderful list, fantastic work! :)

Based on this we can calculate how many times each state has been the tipping point state going all the way back to 1856.

And here's that list:

New York - 6 times (most recently in 1944)
Ohio - 4
Illinois - 4
Michigan - 3
Colorado - 2
Florida - 2
Pennsylvania - 2
Rhode Island - 2
California - 2
Wisconsin - 2
Tennessee - 1
Maine - 1
Washington - 1
Missouri - 1
Iowa - 1
West Virginia - 1
New Jersey - 1
South Carolina - 1
New Hampshire - 1
Arkansas - 1            
Kentucky - 1


So a total of 21 states have been the tipping point state at least once since 1856. That is 42% of the states, not bad. And 10 of the states have reached tipping point more than once.

And the winner is...New York, by far. Having been the electoral decider no less than 6 times, including in all three elections during the 1880s, causing a Republican president to be elected twice despite the popular vote wanting the Democratic candidate for the office. Also worth mentioning are the states of Ohio, Illinois and Michigan. What they all have in common is the size of their populations.

In the top 10 list we find plenty of states which are still considered swing and battleground states: Ohio, Michigan, Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire. Even South Carolina could possibly become a battleground state in 10-15 more years. It's interesting to see all of the Appalachian states having been the tipping point at least once. Nowadays they're as far from the political center as you could get, more or less.

That gives us this tipping point map:

()

Of the truely big states, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Arizona, Massachusetts, Indiana, Minnesota and Maryland have all yet to becoming a tipping point state. Maybe in 2016? Both Virginia and Minnesota sure look ripe for t.p. status soon. :P North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia being good candidates for 2020. And Texas could perhaps tip the election in 2024 or 2028? By then, Texas' electoral weight will have increased even further, letting the redistricting from the 2020 census work its magic on the map.

Great job -- thanks.

In 1896, Ohio was McKinley's home state.

In 1884, 1888, 1892, New York had the biggest EC vote, and was Grover Cleveland's home state, but Grover never got a majority -- heavy R upstate vote cancelling NYC

Are we jumping too early when it comes to trends and future maps?

If this forum allowed for us to "LIKE" a posting, I would give one to the OP, JRP1994.


Thank you!