Talk Elections

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_GA_080813.pdf


Clinton leads Sarah Palin 51-38

Clinton leads Rand Paul 48-43

Clinton leads Newt Gingrich 47-43

Clinton leads Paul Ryan 47-44

Clinton ties Jeb Bush at 45

Clinton trails Chris Christie 42-44

Georgie will be in play with Clinton :).

If Georgia is in play, then the Democrat is winning electoral votes in the high 300's.  Georgia hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1992. If Hillary Clinton wins Georgia she is probably also winning Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri as well and she has won North Carolina.

She even leads Newt in Newt's home state.  Interesting. 

Why poll Palin? There's no way she's running now.

Good, good. She still has a realistic path to 400 electoral votes.

About what I would expect 3 years prior to an election. If she's not at 50% the night before the election though, she won't win a state like Georgia.

As a democrat I can still dream, right ? LOL

Crosstabs hint at a less favorable picture than the topline numbers indicate. Note that Republicans are two to three times as likely as Democrats to be undecided in the various Hilldawg matchups- in Georgia, the undecideds always break to the right :(

Finally a Democrat who lives in reality. In order for Clinton or whoever the Democratic nominee for president in 2016 is, they would have to have more than 320 EV first. It's not out of reach, but unlikely to vote for the Democratic candidate.

Clinton has a better chance of winning Georgia than Republicans have of winning Pennsylvania. Four years is a long time demographically when it comes to elections, Clinton would probably win Georgia if she ran, because of shifts in the Metro area and performing better than Obama in ancestral Democratic areas.

Clinton is strong in the south, weak in the West. And sorry, georgia is less rep than Indiana and Missouri.

With all things being equal I'd put Georgia at about 55-45. She would have to have Obama 2008 numbers to have a chance at winning. Making it close could happen if she's willing to spend time and money there as opposed to Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and Colorado.

Wait so after only giving 53% to the opponent of an incumbent president who was about the worst fit imaginable, you're saying Hillary does two points WORSE?

Obama was a phenomenal fit for Georgia.

No. He wasn't as horrible a fit for Georgia as he was for Tennessee. Northern Georgia seems to vote much like North Carolina; southern Georgia seems to vote like Mississippi.

Predictions should not be based on what you want to happen. The fact that Hillary could do better in ancestral Democratic areas and because there are trends in the Metro area, it's highly unlike that she'd do worse than Obama. Even if she doesn't do better in ancestral areas, she still should perform as well as Obama in the Metro area.

You agree with me that he was a good fit for Georgia?

Ok?

I'm going to assume that in 2016 black turnout in GA drops slightly from 2012 while Hispanic and Asian turnout increase, so we see a statewide electorate a little less whiter than last time.

If that's the case, here's how Hillary wins the state

-run up huge margins in Dekalb, Fulton and Clayton/ win Rockdale, Newton and Henry

-Make Cobb and Gwinnett even closer than last time

- try to get above 25% in Forsyth and Cherokee counties, above 30% in Coweta/Paulding/Hall, above 35% in Fayette

-Break the 30% threshold in north Georgia counties, maybe 35%

-Try to win some of those dixiecrat counties in south Georgia, like Clinch, Telfair, Grady and Ben Hill. She'll never do as well down there as Bill but she can win a few back

All that would probably give the state to Hillary by like a point or two. I don't know if she could do it but it's possible

That's a lot to have to happen. Only time will tell. With a gun to my head and all things being equal, I'd put Georgia at about 54-44.

Match a woman against a woman and gender becomes irrelevant... but every other difference become significant.

Yes and no. Gender would be the hype of the media all year if two women ran for the White House.

Uhhhh no.  Obama is a black, you see. 

Why even bother polling Palin?

And there's a ton of blacks in Georgia so he was a good fit in terms of bringing out the vote.

I don't think GA will go to Hillary, it will be close, and if the GOP completely screws up than maybe. The demographics are shifting in the state, but really Obama was the best chance to win GA and he didn't, maybe in 2020 a democrat will win GA but I am not sure about 2016.