Talk Elections

Report. (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_LA_821.pdf)

Clinton- 47%
Jindal- 40%

Clinton- 42%
Christie- 41%

Clinton- 44%
Bush- 44%

Clinton- 44%
Paul- 45%

Clinton- 44%
Ryan- 46%

Well, maybe the LA democratic party will relive :p.

If the Republican candidate gets less than 70% of the Republican vote, then yeah sure it could be competitive.

Dems can only dream in LA,WVA and ARK.

Funny that Christie does worse than the others. Perhaps he's a type to do worse in the Pub states (especially the South) and better in the Northeast/Great Lakes/West Coast?

That is what the polls suggest, yes.  Of course, it's early, and things will change.  But if you took all the current polling at face value, then Christie vs. Clinton would see most of the Democratic states trend Republican and the Republican states trend Democrat, creating many more swing states than there have been in recent elections.

Could you imagine the swing state map for 2016 if it's Christie vs. Clinton? 

Could possibly be one of the most interesting elections to follow, ever. 

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If it's close nationally, it has the potential to be the most fun close election we've had in quite a while.  It wouldn't be able to match 1976 though.....when there were 20 states where the margin was within 5 points (including CA, NY, PA, IL, and TX)!  Imagine how much fun it would have been to follow the 1976 election if we'd had the internet back then, and a forum like this one.

Oh there would be at least 25 battleground states. Maine, Tennessee, Montana, Georgia, Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, South Dakota, Texas, Kentucky, West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington all could be in play. I left out New Jersey because it would be red for an occasion. Are there any others we can see turning over?

The party breakdown is:
Democrats 45%
Republicans 36%
Independents 18%

Christie actually destroys Clinton among Independents, leading 47%-17%, but that leaves a lot of undecideds, and the total number of Independents isn't that great.  Clinton still leads by 1 point overall, because of the large number of Democrats, and the fact that she consolidates Democrats behind her better than Christie consolidates Republicans.

Age breakdown of Christie vs. Clinton:
18-45: Clinton +9
46-65: Christie +1
65+: Christie +11

Age breakdown of Paul vs. Clinton:
18-45: tie
46-65: Clinton +2
65+: Paul +11

Oh yeah, the forum would crash .... oh wait.

Please do not talk about Party breakdown after 2012, sir.

Can't see her winning here but the swing to the Ds from '12 should be huge.

Also, while a close Clinton-Christie race would produce many notable swings all over the map, I think some of you guys are exaggerating the amount of states that would seriously be in contention.

Agreed. The unique appeal of Clinton in Appalachia and Christie in blue states would likely start to fade once the campaign drags on for months and most people begin to naturally drift back to their typical camp. Though it would be awesome if that didn't happen, I'm almost certain it would.

I still say it will be solid Republican by the election. If Hillary Clinton runs it will be light red.