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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: RogueBeaver on September 19, 2013, 10:59:24 am



Title: WI-PPP: Ryan, Hillary tied
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 19, 2013, 10:59:24 am
She leads Christie by 3, Paul and Walker by 5.  (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_WI_919.pdf)


Title: Re: WI-PPP: Ryan, Hillary tied
Post by: PolitiJunkie on September 19, 2013, 11:38:44 am
If you look at the later questions, this poll over-samples Republicans/conservatives and independents, along with whites (90%!) and older people.


Title: Re: WI-PPP: Ryan, Hillary tied
Post by: Devils30 on September 19, 2013, 12:36:50 pm
Remember its sampling 2014 midterm voters


Title: Re: WI-PPP: Ryan, Hillary tied
Post by: tmthforu94 on September 19, 2013, 12:39:55 pm
With each passing day, I get more and more excited about a potential Ryan campaign!


Title: Re: WI-PPP: Ryan, Hillary tied
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 19, 2013, 01:51:50 pm
Clinton 46%
Bush 42%

Clinton 43%
Christie 40%

Clinton 48%
Cruz 37%

Clinton 47%
Paul 42%

Clinton 46%
Ryan 46%

Clinton 49%
Walker 44%


Title: Re: WI-PPP: Ryan, Hillary tied
Post by: ElectionsGuy on September 19, 2013, 03:20:35 pm
I've got to say, I'm shocked! I don't think that this poll will be indicative though, if the election were held today, Hillary would more than likely win against Ryan. I think there is an over sample of republicans here.

Barack Obama: 49%
Mitt Romney: 45%

Yep, looks like a slight over sample of republicans....

If you look at the later questions, this poll over-samples Republicans/conservatives and independents, along with whites (90%!) and older people.

OK, you're right about the first part, but remember, Wisconsin is 83% white (just as white as Minnesota). Its not at all surprising that the electorate would be 90% white, especially for a mid-term.


Title: Re: WI-PPP: Ryan, Hillary tied
Post by: pbrower2a on September 19, 2013, 03:50:15 pm
Indeed the state went 53-46 in 2012, which will be more relevant to 2016. For midterms, the electorate will be somewhere between those of 2008 and 2010. 


Title: Re: WI-PPP: Ryan, Hillary tied
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 19, 2013, 08:43:47 pm
Again, the age breakdown is interesting.  Contrasting Christie vs. Clinton with Paul vs. Clinton....

Christie vs. Clinton:
age 18-29: Clinton +22
age 30-45: tie
age 46-65: Clinton +4
age 65+: Christie +6

Paul vs. Clinton:
age 18-29: Clinton +5
age 30-45: Clinton +2
age 46-65: Clinton +11
age 65+: Paul +3


Title: Re: WI-PPP: Ryan, Hillary tied
Post by: barfbag on September 19, 2013, 11:49:32 pm
Indeed the state went 53-46 in 2012, which will be more relevant to 2016. For midterms, the electorate will be somewhere between those of 2008 and 2010. 

Do you think we're living in an age where midterms look more like the 2002 and 2004 demographics while presidential elections look more like 2008 demographics? It seems like a lot of Democrats don't vote in midterms.


Title: Re: WI-PPP: Ryan, Hillary tied
Post by: pbrower2a on September 20, 2013, 09:22:14 am
Indeed the state went 53-46 in 2012, which will be more relevant to 2016. For midterms, the electorate will be somewhere between those of 2008 and 2010. 

Do you think we're living in an age where midterms look more like the 2002 and 2004 demographics while presidential elections look more like 2008 demographics? It seems like a lot of Democrats don't vote in midterms.

2010 gave a harsh lesson in the importance of midterm elections. Wet-behind-the-ears Obama supporters who thought that by electing President Obama they had solved everything found out the hard way since then  that Congress is just as important as the President, and that state legislatures matter too.

In 2011 Republicans imposed an uneven playing field. Democrats need to figure how to win despite an uneven playing field (meaning gerrymandering). 


Title: Re: WI-PPP: Ryan, Hillary tied
Post by: pbrower2a on September 20, 2013, 12:22:58 pm
With each passing day, I get more and more excited about a potential Ryan campaign!

PPP, Wisconsin


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 ()   


Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

()

What Ryan gains in Wisconsin he loses elsewhere (like Colorado and Georgia), and I am not  convinced that Christie would lose Arkansas or Louisiana.


Title: Re: WI-PPP: Ryan, Hillary tied
Post by: barfbag on September 20, 2013, 10:05:59 pm
This is about what I'd expect. Chris Christie will lead us there though.


Title: Re: WI-PPP: Ryan, Hillary tied
Post by: morgieb on September 26, 2013, 01:17:22 am
These numbers seem awfully soft. Bubble bursting?


Title: Re: WI-PPP: Ryan, Hillary tied
Post by: barfbag on September 26, 2013, 09:02:04 pm

What do you mean by soft?