Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2014 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: RogueBeaver on September 24, 2013, 07:48:35 am



Title: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 24, 2013, 07:48:35 am
50-36 to be precise.  (http://images.politico.com/global/2013/09/23/senateresults.html) Her approval's +9, Tennant's +5.


Title: Eastern Wyoming?
Post by: greenforest32 on September 24, 2013, 08:54:40 am
It's really hard to imagine so much ticket-splitting continuing in West Virginia when the state goes 60%+ Republican for President.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: Miles on September 24, 2013, 11:39:58 am
And Obama is at 28/67. Even worse than I thought.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: tmthforu94 on September 24, 2013, 11:50:41 am
Sure, this may be winnable for Tennant if the environment stays the same, but I think Democrats would be smart to invest their resources elsewhere.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: RodPresident on September 24, 2013, 12:13:34 pm
Tennant has her age as good argument, as WV needs seniority and Shelley would be somewhat old to be a freshwoman at Senate.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 24, 2013, 12:19:03 pm
LOLno, also Manchin was 63 when he first won in 2010.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on September 24, 2013, 12:30:49 pm
Quote
There are a couple silver linings in the results for Tennant. Capito has an 11 point name recognition advantage on Tennant, but among voters who have an opinion about the Secretary of State she only trails Capito 47/44. Those numbers suggest she could get closer as she becomes better known.
Quote from PPP
So, republicans are currently favored, but it's NOT a safe rep seat or likely rep seat.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 24, 2013, 12:31:22 pm
Sure, this may be winnable for Tennant if the environment stays the same, but I think Democrats would be smart to invest their resources elsewhere.

It's not like West Virginia is an expensive state to advertise.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: DINGO Joe stands on Sanchez on September 24, 2013, 12:37:50 pm
Sure, this may be winnable for Tennant if the environment stays the same, but I think Democrats would be smart to invest their resources elsewhere.

It's not like West Virginia is an expensive state to advertise.

Actually, it's more expensive than you'd think, you have to buy Pittsburgh media and 10% of the state (and the only growing part of the state) lives in the D.C. media market.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: Miles on September 24, 2013, 12:56:12 pm
LOLno, also Manchin was 63 when he first won in 2010.

2010 just happened to be Manchin's time. Byrd and Rockefeller were both under 50 when they were first elected.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: Cory Booker on September 24, 2013, 05:50:15 pm
This is one poll after the announcement. I believe it is more like an 8 pt lead. I like this race better than MnT, SD, or Ark.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: badgate on September 24, 2013, 11:36:38 pm
WE REMAIN UNDETERRED!!!!!!


()


Title: WV: Public Policy Polling: Capito starts out up 14
Post by: Miles on September 25, 2013, 02:33:47 am
New Poll: West Virginia Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2013-9-22 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=54202013922108)

Summary: D: 36%, R: 50%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_WV_924.pdf)


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: ElectionsGuy on September 25, 2013, 06:35:57 am
This is one poll after the announcement. I believe it is more like an 8 pt lead. I like this race better than MnT, SD, or Ark.

lol. So now you guys don't trust PPP for accurate results? You trusted PPP on Kentucky, one poll after Grimes announcement. I do think its a bit inaccurate because Obama disapproval is 67%, a bit high even for West Virginia. But I don't think you guys have the right of saying that, especially for praising PPP for accurate results and being "the gold standard". I would also say that Arkansas is a much likelier hold for you guys than West Virginia, while you may like the race better, as of right now, WV is a much more favorable to R's.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: Cory Booker on September 25, 2013, 06:58:40 am
Asa Hutchinson will have coattails. SMC remains untested. GOP will gain 3-4 seats and SD is the only safe seat for GOP out of MnT, WVa and Ark.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: Miles on September 25, 2013, 12:09:36 pm
Tomblin is the most popular pol here, at 47/35. Manchin has fallen from 61/23 to 46/44 and Rockefeller is actually negative, 45/46.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: Seattle on September 26, 2013, 12:14:07 am
Tomblin is the most popular pol here, at 47/35. Manchin has fallen from 61/23 to 46/44 and Rockefeller is actually negative, 45/46.

I think that's pretty telling of the effect Obama and the perception of his policies in WV has had... for Manchin to see such a drastic drop.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: DINGO Joe stands on Sanchez on September 26, 2013, 10:00:53 am
Actually surprise that Rockerfeller's numbers are that high, he's the only honest politician in the state.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: ModerateVAVoter on September 26, 2013, 05:21:40 pm
Tomblin is the most popular pol here, at 47/35. Manchin has fallen from 61/23 to 46/44 and Rockefeller is actually negative, 45/46.

I think that's pretty telling of the effect Obama and the perception of his policies in WV has had... for Manchin to see such a drastic drop.

Didn't Manchin also get hit after the Toomey-Manchin gun control bill? I always thought that was part of it.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: Miles on September 26, 2013, 05:24:21 pm
Tomblin is the most popular pol here, at 47/35. Manchin has fallen from 61/23 to 46/44 and Rockefeller is actually negative, 45/46.

I think that's pretty telling of the effect Obama and the perception of his policies in WV has had... for Manchin to see such a drastic drop.

Didn't Manchin also get hit after the Toomey-Manchin gun control bill? I always thought that was part of it.

I thought that too, but apparently not:

Quote
67% support requiring background checks for all gun sales, including 79% of women. A third of respondents say they were more likely to vote for Manchin because he supported background checks, while 29% said this made them less likely to support him.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: IceSpear on September 26, 2013, 05:37:29 pm
Tomblin is the most popular pol here, at 47/35. Manchin has fallen from 61/23 to 46/44 and Rockefeller is actually negative, 45/46.

I think that's pretty telling of the effect Obama and the perception of his policies in WV has had... for Manchin to see such a drastic drop.

Didn't Manchin also get hit after the Toomey-Manchin gun control bill? I always thought that was part of it.

I thought that too, but apparently not:

Quote
67% support requiring background checks for all gun sales, including 79% of women. A third of respondents say they were more likely to vote for Manchin because he supported background checks, while 29% said this made them less likely to support him.

There seems to be an extremely large disconnect between voters heavily favoring expanded background checks while simultaneously tanking the popularity of people who support them. This happened in the Colorado recalls as well. The NRA is very good at what they do, that's for sure.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: hopper on September 27, 2013, 01:52:51 am
Capito is winning 30% of Demorcats. If Tennant can get more of the Dem Vote she can be very competitive.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: Holmes on October 03, 2013, 07:31:28 pm
Capito is winning 30% of Demorcats. If Tennant can get more of the Dem Vote she can be very competitive.

If this is really the case then Capito's numbers might go down a bit closer to election day as Democrats start to seriously consider if they want to vote for her or not. But it's West Virginia and they will.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: Cory Booker on October 04, 2013, 08:09:43 am
We already saw a 5 point poll. Her lead is close to eight and so is Daines, than the 14 pt. poll we see.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: sawx on October 04, 2013, 01:52:20 pm
We already saw a 5 point poll. Her lead is close to eight and so is Daines, than the 14 pt. poll we see.

We've already established Repass is junky and usually overestimates Ds like it did in the Tomblin race. It's much closer to 14 than 5.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on October 04, 2013, 01:53:10 pm
We already saw a 5 point poll. Her lead is close to eight and so is Daines, than the 14 pt. poll we see.

We've already established Repass is junky and usually overestimates Ds like it did in the Tomblin race. It's much closer to 14 than 5.

Agree. But it's a problem of name recognition, so it will get closer


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: Cory Booker on October 05, 2013, 01:47:33 am
Fine, but Tennant, especially Walsh's chances have improved since the shutdown.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: Vosem on October 05, 2013, 09:00:48 pm
Fine, but Tennant, especially Walsh's chances have improved since the shutdown.

I'm willing to accept they've gotten closer (bumps deflate usually, but whatever), but what makes you think Walsh especially? On the contrary, Montana is the sort of rural state that's stereotyped as having libertarian sympathies where you would think Republican supporters would be willing to go along with a government shutdown at higher-than-average rates. Not really the case in more populist-y West Virginia.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: Beat-‘Em-All Beto on October 06, 2013, 06:06:52 pm
MnT has voted Democratic in consecutive elections and Budduck won in a race in which he was losing in. Walsh is a too recruit and is Lt gov and won in 2012. Although I am not hedging my bets on WVa, but the approval of House which is the Ted Cruz tea party has declined.
.....
What?


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: Cory Booker on October 06, 2013, 06:13:24 pm
Walsh won a tossup race in 2012 with Buddock. I'm sure he is very equipped to handle another tough race in 2014.


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: PolitiJunkie on October 06, 2013, 06:59:14 pm
MnT has voted Democratic in consecutive elections and Budduck won in a race in which he was losing in. Walsh is a too recruit and is Lt gov and won in 2012. Although I am not hedging my bets on WVa, but the approval of House which is the Ted Cruz tea party has declined.
.....
What?

Yeah what?


Title: Re: WV-PPP: Capito up 14
Post by: badgate on October 08, 2013, 03:46:26 pm
MnT has voted Democratic in consecutive elections and Budduck won in a race in which he was losing in. Walsh is a too recruit and is Lt gov and won in 2012. Although I am not hedging my bets on WVa, but the approval of House which is the Ted Cruz tea party has declined.
.....
What?

Montana has voted Democratic in consecutive elections (on the Senate level) and Bullock won in a race in which polls said he was losing (I have no idea if this is true). Walsh is a top recruit and won Lt Gov in 2012. Although I am not hedging my bets on West Virginia, something something declined.