Talk Elections

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/09/west-virginia-miscellany.html

Clinton trails Cruz 44 - 41
Clinton trails Christie 47 - 38
Clinton trails Paul 49 - 39
Clinton trails Ryan 50 - 38
Clinton trails Bush 52 - 38

She's only at 44% against Cruz which isn't good. Also, it's 2013.

Cruz leads Clinton 44 - 41 .....

This should throw cold water on the idea of Hillary winning West Virginia

What

WHAT

Oh dear, this is bad.

Good catch! Sorry, that was my error.

West Virginia may be heading to 70-30 with all things being equal.

No surprise.

West Virginia is as gone for the Democrats as Vermont is for Republicans.

When's the last time Vermont elected a Republican senator with 61% of the vote?

Just confirms my belief that Arizona, Georgia would be Hillary's top pickup targets (outside of the obvious North Carolina) and she has little chance in west va Arkansas and Kentucky.

You're off topic. This is about a poll relating to a presidential election and not a senate election. Tim Johnson is a senator in South Dakota and they haven't voted for a Democrat since 1964. What do you have to say to that? We all know it's apples and oranges. Please stay on topic.

She leads Christie by 1 in LA and 2 in AR, but trails here by 9.  Not quite a perfect retro-90s map.

;D I can't stop laughing :)

Why is this a story? This is fcuking West Virginia! This is the state that was the most recent Democratic presidential candidate's fifth worst state, and the state in which the most recent Democratic President has his second lowest approval rating. The only real story is that Cruz ONLY leads Clinton, one of the highest ranking officials in Barack FCUKING OBAMA'S ADMINISTRATION by 3...other than his last name and skin color, there is no better fcuking fit for this joke of a state than Ted fcuking Cruz! If Cruz is only leading in WEST VIRGINIA by 3, heck if Christie is only leading by NINE in West FCUKING Virginia, I just got a hell of a lot more optimistic about the Democrats' chances in 2016 (not that I wasn't obviously very optimistic already, and for good reason). What are you gonna tell me next? That Patrick FCUKING LEAHY is a lock for reelection?

I think with junkies like us we're quick to compare her to her husband who won West Virginia twice when it was reliably blue.

Its only a story because democrats actually think they can win this state with Hillary.

I guess I shouldn't be surprised.  West Virginia and Kentucky are not returning to the Democratic column anytime soon, not even for Hillary.  Arkansas probably won't either. 

Not any more. Under the circumstances, West Virginia would now vote for the Devil for President if he ran as a Republican. Of course, there is some question about the citizenship of the Devil.

In this poll, she loses the state by 14% at most. Obama lost by 27% in 2012.

This is really an improvement of at least 13 points.

Also, I want to see the internals. There's no way in hell that people really support shutting down the government by 40% to 37%, or impeachment by 49% to 37%. That's Tea Party talk.

Why are you so angry? It's just a poll dude, calm yourself.

This poll also says 15% of Obama supporters support his impeachment. That makes less sense than anything else in this poll.

Are you talking about Obama voters or people who approve of Obama? Because if its Obama voters then it would make sense as more people turned on him.

He hasn't done anything since the election that would cause him to be impeached. The Benghazi and IRS "scandals" are only for Rushbots who hated him anyway.

I realise this is only one poll, but hopefully this can dispel the 'West Virginia is Clinton country' myth.

I'm not "angry," I'm just fired up by the fact that Republicans want to make a story out of the fact that a liberal Democrat tied closely to Barack Obama would be trailing in WEST VIRGINIA, of all places. Also guys, I don't know if you heard, but Andrew Cuomo is a strong favorite to win reelection if he runs.

Only Schweitzer/Warren ticket could win WV.

2000, and with 65% of the vote. A Jeffords type could probably win there today just as a Manchin type could win massively in WV.  Not to mention that Shumlin's predecessor served for four terms as a Republican from 2003 to 2011, just as Tomblin is a Democratic governor of WV. Not to mention that Douglas held on by 15% and 32% margins respectively in 2006 and 2008, not exactly Republican waves. Tomblin's largest margin of victory as of yet is 5%.

I'm not saying that someone like Christie could make it close in Vermont, but chances are Hillary has just about as much of a chance winning in WV as Christie does in VT.

Fully agree

Christie vs. Clinton by age:
18-29: Clinton +4
30-45: Christie +19
46-65: Christie +10
65+: Christie +11

Paul vs. Clinton by age:
18-29: Paul +2
30-45: Paul +26
46-65: Paul +5
65+: Paul +9

I recall seeing a poll showing Hillary leading Christie in Arkansas by 2 points, but it was spun as "bad news" for her because she was "only at 45%" or something along those lines. Totally ignoring the last Democrat lost the state by over 20 points.

I like the fact that Bush is in the lead. 

So 13 years ago, compared to 1 year ago for Manchin, which proves my point. If Manchin loses in 2018, then I'll be willing to say WV is permanently gone for the Democrats.

Governors are an entirely different beast. Even Wyoming elected a Democratic governor, as Vermont did a Republican one.

But we all know that a West Virginia Democrat means something very different than a national Democrat, as does a Vermont Republican than a national Republican. So perhaps this aspect isn't even relevant; regardless of parties, a liberal won't win WV and a conservative won't win VT. That's what matters.

I would expect West Virginia to return closer to 2008 PVI levels but it's done going blue. Curious if Hillary would win the coal counties or improve in the midwestern section near Ohio/PA. Guessing the 2nd is more likely, even if Hillary won some of the counties around Pittsburgh I think Dems are done in the southern part of WV.

They said Obama's numbers in West Virginia are the second-worst of any state. How can that be? Between Kentucky and West Virginia, I always thought of Kentucky as being the more conservative of the two, by far.

Kentucky has Louisville..WV has really no large metro areas. This poll looks good for the GOP in West Virginia, but they are in great peril in Virginia long-term and have more or less maxed out their white vote in Florida.

They usually are but not last time. The coal industry has been destroyed by Obama. Democrats used to cry foul over Reagan's policies towards the steel industry. Now we'll be able to throw it right back regarding Obama's policies towards the coal industry.

This freaking sucks... coal Armageddon has turned WV into Wyoming... even though hardly anyone in WV even works in coal anymore. The coal industry has been destroyed by the free market, people. Liberals have been trying to fight against fracking. Mitt Romney was right... Corporations invented this and they're driving it. Joseph Schumpeter. Creative destruction. I thought this was what conservatives were all into? But of course, blame Obama.

The only good thing about this poll is that the "old" Clinton is doing best among people in their 20s... even against Paul.

Coal has been declining for years, and the Democratic brand in WV was as well long before Obama arrived. Natural gas is cheaper and more efficient, that's why coal has declined, not Obama.
When you look at WV on issues like gay marriage and abortion, it is exactly the red state you would expect.

Poetic justice for all the sh**t Obama got for doing poorly in Appalachia.

Boat has sailed.

Irrelevant anyway as the Dems don't need it to get to 270.

Thank you. The Dems need it to get to 518. That is all.

Manchin is not Hillary, and as PolitiJunkie said, a liberal will not win WV. Period.

One could argue that Maine is not a Democratic state because it has no Democratic statewide officials. Yet at the same time it has gone Democratic every cycle since 1992.

Statewide and national elections are two different things entirely. The NJ gubernatorial race is not Safe R. It is Safe Christie, just as the 2012 WV senate race was Safe Manchin, not Safe D. Often the statewide races are a great indicator of a state's national lean. But as in the case of WV, it is not.

So no, WV is not gone for all Democrats, but almost no states are gone for all Democrats or all Republicans. WV is gone for all D presidential nominees, because the only type of Democrat that can be nominated is a Democrat far too liberal for West Virginia.

Thank you; this is perfect.

I can see why some people might have thought that Hillary had a fighting chance in WV because Bill Clinton was so popular there and the southern Democrat brand works well there, and honestly, Hillary probably would have won the state had she been the nominee in 2008 (assuming that in this alternate reality, the GOP nominee wasn't Huckabee, and ESPECIALLY if the nominee WAS Romney or Giuliani), but any chances of her winning the state went out the window when she became a member and huge supporter of the Obama administration (and frankly, her southern Democrat brand has been dead since she became a Senator for New York).

I think her chances ended with the gun issue in 2000 when Al Gore was seen as a gun grabber. This may be far fetched but it seems like ever since then, WV has done a 180.

Republicans could impeach the President for wearing mismatched socks if they so chose. Such would be a travesty, but in recent years Republicans have rarely seen travesty as a cause for rejecting a political opportunity. Conviction in the Senate would of course be impossible except for some gross malfeasance.

There was much more cause for impeaching Dubya and Cheney (perhaps simultaneously) between early 2007 and late 2008, but Congress did not do so. It was enough to gut their authority.   

Wow.  I guess WV truly has gone completely off into the deep end.

You can really see it happening this decade:

2014 - Democrats lose WV-Sen, WV state house (already lots of movement since 2010)
2016 - Democrats lose WV-Gov
2018 - Democrats lose WV-Sen2, WV state senate

All of this assumes that the GOP isn't completely collapsing due to its own shutdown/debt ceiling idiocy.

Who today would actually BECOME a Republican if they weren't already one?

Idiots. And WV has no shortage of those.

To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if Manchin were to lose reelection. WV could be the most R state in 2016.

In 2000, Jim Jeffords (as a Republican) took 65% of the vote.