Talk Elections

49-36 Clinton/Christie
53-36 Clinton/Paul
54-31 Clinton/Cruz

Favorable Ratings:

56-36 Clinton (+20)
40-22 Christie (+18]
48-49 Obama (-1)
30-33 Paul (-3)
16-25 Cruz (-9)

From September 23 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,497 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=1959

Christie vs. Clinton by age:
18-29: Clinton +16
30-49: Clinton +16
50-64: Clinton +16
65+: Clinton +5

Paul vs. Clinton by age:
18-29: Clinton +27
30-49: Clinton +13
50-64: Clinton +20
65+: Clinton +9

And again, Clinton's strong favorables are because of her amazing numbers among Democrats, whereas Christie's are from his strong crossover support:

Christie favorability by party ID:
Dems: +19
GOP: +22
Indies: +22

Clinton favorability by party ID:
Dems: +86
GOP: -57
Indies: +13

WTF. Are we looking at a Ronald Reagan landslide here?


Amazing, Christie has awful approval rating among GOP, but an outstanding approval rating among democrats and independents, hell he gets bipartisan support from everyone, and Clinton gets bipartisan support from republicans because Cristie's "too liberal". In the end though, all these independents and democrats who have a positive opinion of Christie would still vote Clinton.

The GOP needs to expose Hillary for who she is, but obviously they can't do that right now and its irrelevant to be talking about it right now until any kind of movement happens. Until then this is happy time for liberals.

Big names like Christie and Jeb Bush might not even run if it's clear Clinton is getting into the race. Better to roll the dice and hope against hope that somehow she's unpopular in 2020 than have your political career ended in a landslide in 2016.

^ ^ This. The deck is already stacked against them in 2016 if she runs. 

Just as the Hillary Landslide talk was beginning to wane, it is now revitalized! Thanks Speaker Cruz!

If she wins by 23 points, she will win every state besides Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Oklahoma, and maybe Alabama.

But...wait...freedom! Also...incumbent party fatigue! Third term curse!

Among whites:

47 Clinton, 37 Cruz

Obama lost whites 60-39.

So much for the strategy of going far right to get all those "missing whites" LOL.

This is why the parts of the GOP that actually know how to do math are scared to death. They know they maximized their white vote against a black guy with a funny name running for re-election with a stagnant economy and an unpopular healthcare plan. And yet the black guy still won by a comfortable margin (though not a landslide). The GOP's options are basically to change or die at this point. Judging from Speaker Cruz and the government shutdown fiasco, it seems they're choosing the latter.

()

Christie:

()

Clinton: 375
Christie: 163

56.5% Clinton
43.5% Christie

Paul:

()

Clinton: 411
Paul: 127

58.5% Clinton
41.5% Paul

Cruz:

()

Clinton: 467
Cruz: 71

61.5% Clinton
38.5% Cruz


These are by no means realistic, I just thought I would put maps together to picture the result.

Cruz 2016! (;

Why would Rand lose Mississippi but win Montana? Makes no sense.

No way she wins in a landslide without Arkansas.

They are close together PVI wise. I didn't account for elasticity so Rand probably wouldn't lose Mississippi, Montana would be a pure toss-up still though.

Cruz won't lose Texas to Hillary.

Clinton won't win in a landslide unless Republicans are actually stupid enough to nominate this Cruz joker.

If you say so. In here it would be about Hillary 51%, Cruz 48%. No doubt he could have a home state advantage (which I'm not factoring in), but given that Hillary wins against him by 23 points in the poll, I Texas would narrowly go Hillary.

Yeah. Under Cruz and possibly Paul she probably wins big, but it should be closeish under a mainstream Republican.