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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Franzl on October 09, 2013, 03:41:39 am



Title: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on October 09, 2013, 03:41:39 am
I was asked to lock the previous thread because it was getting so long.

I'll open this thread with today's federal Forsa poll:

CDU/CDU 45%
SPD 24%
Grüne 8%
Linke 8%
AfD 6%

FDP 3%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on October 09, 2013, 03:56:21 am
Thanks, Franzl - good for the Forum speed.

;)

Maybe Antonio can lock the Italian thread too. This one is getting too big as well.

...

As for the poll: Forsa was actually the best pollster ahead of the election and that means something. In the past, Forsa was said to underestimate the SPD, because the company boss is a former SPD-member (or still ?) who had trouble with the SPD.

Looking at the poll, I find it weird that the Germans didn't outfit Merkel with an absolute majority right away ... :P


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on October 09, 2013, 10:32:07 am
An absolute majority really would have been the best solution, although note that because the AfD gets in, even 45% is insufficient.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on October 09, 2013, 10:40:55 am
That poll isn't giving her one. No poll since election day has given her one. There have been five; the two by Forsa have shown CDU/CSU with a lead over SPD/Left/Greens while the three not by Forsa have all shown a tie. All five polls, however, have shown AfD at 5 (first Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen) or 6 (second Forsa, both Emnid) - and the FDP at 3 or 4.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on October 09, 2013, 10:48:29 am
That poll isn't giving her one. No poll since election day has given her one. There have been five; the two by Forsa have shown CDU/CSU with a lead over SPD/Left/Greens while the three not by Forsa have all shown a tie. All five polls, however, have shown AfD at 5 (first Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen) or 6 (second Forsa, both Emnid) - and the FDP at 3 or 4.

And the election was really something of a fluke, with two parties just barely below 5%. Even if 41,5% is a very impressive result these days, it's really not anywhere close to majority territory unless you get incredibly lucky.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franknburger on October 09, 2013, 09:21:44 pm
First - welcome back, Franzl! Hope you enjoyed your break.

I still need a bit of time for my Hamburg metro maps. Two counties (SE, PI) had their result pages down, and I had to e-mail them for precinct data.

In the meantime, here some observations on AfD. Take a look at a few of their strongholds:

Winsen (Luhe) Stöckte II  (https://maps.google.de/maps?oe=UTF-8&q=Brackende+14,+Winsen&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x47b1eb8fcf7abead:0x24d0ee958cc78fa5,Brackende+14,+D-21423+Winsen+(Luhe)&gl=de&ei=1sRVUtfZI4aJ0AWd1oC4AQ&ved=0CDEQ8gEwAA) - 13.6 %
(Image Link)

Quickborn 080 (NO) (https://maps.google.de/maps?oe=UTF-8&q=Berliner+Str+Quickborn&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x47b229101fead03b:0xef6d997778271a4d,Berliner+Stra%C3%9Fe,+D-25451+Quickborn&gl=de&ei=KclVUu3hO4nO0wWu5YGICw&ved=0CDEQ8gEwAA): 9.94%
(Image Link)

Reinbek-Krabbenkamp (https://maps.google.de/maps?oe=UTF-8&q=Krabbenkamp+Reinbek&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x47b1f161638cd0b5:0xa248966482b21f0,Krabbenkamp&gl=de&ei=oshVUu3kHuS40QXJyoDgCQ&ved=0CHoQtgMwCg): 7.1%
(Image Link)

Neumunster 35 (https://maps.google.de/maps?oe=UTF-8&ie=UTF-8&q=Grundschule+an+der+Schwale&fb=1&gl=de&hq=Grundschule+An+der+Schwale&hnear=0x47b24bc2170729b5:0x4248963c6580340,Neum%C3%BCnster&cid=0,0,6219025748663596860&ei=StBVUsSwL4vP0AWKsoDICQ&ved=0CHsQ_BIwCQ) (Faldera SW): 7.3%
(Image Link)

A few other ones w/o photos: Ahrensburg Am Hagen  (https://maps.google.de/maps?oe=UTF-8&q=Am+Hagen,+Ahrensburg&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x47b1f552a60d006b:0xf3920c872a2c3bd3,Am+Hagen,+Ahrensburg&gl=de&ei=kdJVUrv8II7v0gWC4oGAAQ&ved=0CH4QtgMwCw) (8.0), Ammersbek-Rehhagen (https://maps.google.de/maps?oe=UTF-8&q=Sch%C3%A4ferdresch+Ammersbek&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x47b221c44211a2cd:0xdb59861100109697,Sch%C3%A4ferdresch,+D-22949+Ammersbek&gl=de&ei=8NJVUuOYG8GX1AW0oICQCw&ved=0CDEQ8gEwAA) (8.4), Norderstedt 092 (https://maps.google.de/maps?oe=UTF-8&q=Ochsenzoller+Str+66+Norderstedt&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x47b228059bfd96c9:0xe5e6558fb5979053,Ochsenzoller+Stra%C3%9Fe+66,+D-22848+Norderstedt&gl=de&ei=IdVVUtiZHs7M0AWcpIGYAQ&ved=0CDEQ8gEwAA) (7.3), Oersdorf SE (https://maps.google.de/maps?oe=UTF-8&q=oersdorf&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x47b23029932bf0bd:0x4248963c65836e0,Oersdorf&gl=de&ei=stNVUrzVCqmQ0AWt4oGoBw&ved=0CI8BELYD) (8.6), Drestedt WL  (https://maps.google.de/maps?oe=UTF-8&q=drestedt&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x47b1a272db1a4e19:0x4263df27bd66ea0,Drestedt&gl=de&ei=vdZVUuGCMeaR0QW5rIDYDg&ved=0CI4BELYD) (9.2), Bad Oldesloe-Rethwischfeld (https://maps.google.de/maps?oe=UTF-8&q=Bad+Oldesloe+Rethwischfeld&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x47b21a1cf79c79ef:0xa248966482b4e80,Rethwischfeld&gl=de&ei=0NpVUqfaLaf80QWFzIFw&ved=0CIgBELYDMAo) (8.3), Süsel-Zarnekau  (https://maps.google.de/maps?oe=UTF-8&q=S%C3%BCsel+Zarnekau&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x47b27a9f2b89bb4f:0xa248966482ab7c0,Zarnekau&gl=de&ei=PdxVUsbdCK-e0wXp5IHwCQ&ved=0CH8QtgMwCg) (11.6), Geesthacht 14  (https://maps.google.de/maps?oe=UTF-8&q=Geesthacht+H%C3%B6chelsberg+2a&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x47b1e5660c9bf955:0x13dec13e0b9c5169,H%C3%B6chelsberg+2A,+D-21502+Geesthacht&gl=de&ei=WuNVUtPwNuip0QXnpYDQCw&ved=0CDEQ8gEwAA) (7.5).

What is common to these places? First, their location. They are not only suburban, but located towards the periphery of the respective suburbs (or small towns).
Secondly,  they are made up of individual housing (often detached) on rather small plots, built in the 1960s to late 1970s. Housing which is in the process of being turned over to the next generation,  by sale or inheritance, and  typically is in dire need of modernisation. In other words - the kind of real estate that is offered as "opportunity for people with handicraft skills". The cheapest way to get a house with a small garden, for people that neither mind driving longer distances to work, nor can afford to look for stylish property.
Quite a number of young families (1-2 kids, otherwise the houses are too small) with rather low income, probably also not too well educated, plus those that moved there originally, from a similar demography, but over 65 by now. Politically, several of these quarters lean "left", with the SPD being  the strongest party, and Die Linke over-performing as well. As such, I tend to interpret the elevated AfD vote there rather along the lines of  "I also am struggling financially, and nobody is giving me money, why should Greece have it better" than as a fundamentally right-wing vote - and many AfD voters may have abstained in 2009. [There are further AfD voting patternsl, which I will comment on with the AfD Hamburg metro map to come].

For a final illustration, look at Lübeck-Brandenbaum (https://maps.google.de/maps?ie=UTF-8&q=Gemeinschaftshaus+Brandenbaum&fb=1&gl=de&hq=Gemeinschaftshaus+Brandenbaum,&hnear=0x47b20953f70b9df3:0xf4725f573e7e12b4,L%C3%BCbeck&cid=0,0,16342905153756023914&ei=kARWUpvdN9GS0QW01IGoCw&ved=0CIABEPwSMAs):
(Image Link)
The precinct to the bottom right is one of the AfD's strongest ones in the city (AfD 6.1%, Linke 9.5%, NPD 1.4%).  The area in the center of the picture, however, gave them one of their weakest results- 2.7%.  Instead, it is having SPD (38.4) and Grüne (11.2) strong. What makes the difference? The plot sizes are larger in Brandenbaum-North, which means houses are more expensive, and the population is a bit better off financially (note also that  quite a number of houses in Brandenbaum-North have already received new roofing).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on October 11, 2013, 04:02:46 am
Even though CDU and Greens have agreed on a second meeting, the consensus among commentators and experts is still that we're gonna get a Grand coalition.

While CDU-Green would certainly be a possibility, the main problem is that CSU and Greens don't get along at all. They hate each other.

That and the fact that the Greens are currently in a transitional period and half of the Greens' negotiating team won't be in any leadership role in the party very soon anyway. So, it's mostly a courtesy call.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on October 11, 2013, 04:11:52 am
(Image Link)

Wiesbaden. Federal results (the CDU actually came second in Mitte, Rheingauviertel and Amöneburg and within a point of it in Kastel, and third in the West End in the state elections.) Keys... Same as in the Hesse municipal map for "leading party" except Sonnenberg is actually just 25+ not 30+ (almost 30 though, saw the need to distinguish from other 20+ results), five point steps for CDU (20+ to 45+), SPD (15+ to 30+) and turnout (55+ to 85+), 2.5 steps for FDP (2.5+ to 12.5+) and Greens (5+ to 20+), 1 point steps for AfD (3+ to 6+... and the two extreme shades used just twice and once respectively), and 2 point steps for Linke (1+ to 11+, which means that expressive northeast-southwest dividing line is indeed the 5% threshold! Linke-turnout correlation also quite remarkable.)



Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Аverroës 🦉 on October 11, 2013, 07:37:54 am
Are long lots like those in the last two of Franknburger's images common in Germany?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on October 11, 2013, 04:42:32 pm
(Image Link)

A coproduction. Frankfurt by day precinct, postal results mathematically distributed to precincts - details on request.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on October 12, 2013, 08:51:12 am
(Image Link)

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franknburger on October 12, 2013, 03:50:03 pm
Are long lots like those in the last two of Franknburger's images common in Germany?
They are quite common in Northern Germany, where you have a lot of swampy/marshy areas. From the 17th century on, these areas were gradually drained by a network of small channels, with the main channels running in parallel to the larger creeks/ rivers, and small channels feeding in orthogonally.  The drainage system naturally led into a pattern of long, but not very wide  lots that run from the street/ dyke towards the next major drainage channel. The picture below shows the traditional settlement on the Elbe marshes around Hamburg, as it developed after dykes were built along the river in the 17th/ 18th century.

(Image Link)

Most of the draining, however, only took place in the early 20th century, especially under the Nazis, as the creation of new settlement areas for individual housing with small-scale agriculture  formed part of their social policy. The Nazis typically used concentration camp workers, especially political prisoners, later also Russian POW, for these drainage works. The workers' life is described in the German resistance hymn on the "Moorsoldaten (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEDBkK_BthA)".
After WW II, when new housing was required for millions of displaced Germans from territory now under Russian and Polish administration, the freshly drained areas were an obvious option for settlement development, and split up the traditional way. 

In parts of Southern and Eastern Germany, a similar settlement pattern, the Waldhufendorf (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waldhufendorf), was used since the 10th century to clear and colonise forest areas. See this historic map of Schönbrunn (now Jablonec) in Silesia.
(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on October 13, 2013, 01:55:11 pm
With the right kind of eye, you can still just about make out that Frankfurt-Oberrad was an old Waldhufendorf before it turned workers' suburb in the second half of the 19th century.

http://goo.gl/maps/PPjL1

The following maps are in 2 point scale at the uneven points...

(Image Link)

Yes, there's a single <5% precinct in Frankfurt.

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franknburger on October 14, 2013, 01:16:19 am
The green epicentres in Bornheim and Westend are obvious and expected. FDP-leaning bankers appear to prefer the Nordend in-between.

Curious for your AfD map-will it also show 1960s/1970s detached housing areas as their strongholds, as around Hamburg? How about Oberursel in this respect?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on October 14, 2013, 04:53:08 am
Emnid poll for federal level:

CDU/CSU 42%
SPD 25%
Linke 10%
Grüne 9%
AfD 6%

FDP 3%



Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 14, 2013, 04:58:05 am
Emnid poll for federal level:

CDU/CSU 42%
SPD 25%
Linke 10%
Grüne 9%
AfD 6%

FDP 3%



I am inexcusably late but allow me to say it anyway: WELCOME BACK FRANZL!!! :D


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on October 14, 2013, 01:02:35 pm
The green epicentres in Bornheim and Westend are obvious and expected.
Huh? What? Greens in the Westend? Last seen in the 80s, pal. :P (You're thinking of Bockenheim, and of the Westend when you refer to the Nordend just after. The question of what is Bornheim and what is the Nordend - and what Ostend - should not be entered on lightly or on an empty stomach. -_-)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on October 14, 2013, 01:33:22 pm
(Image Link)

(Image Link)

There are details that make sense to me here... but not really all that many. One point scale. Yeah, the AfD vote in the city was that even, between 3 and 7 almost everywhere. Also doesn't seem to correlate with numbers of postal voters at all, at least at the micro level. (These are figures I've looked at sort of accidentally, as a result of the calculations to include the postal votes. So I'm talking of correlation of party strength to number of postal voters from a precinct, compared to the other precincts grouped into the same postal vote precinct here. Expectable positive correlations of FDP and - almost everywhere - CDU, negative correlations of SPD and Left, and the Greens jump all over the place due to it mattering a lot what their relative stronghold in question is being compared with.)

Curious for your AfD map-will it also show 1960s/1970s detached housing areas as their strongholds, as around Hamburg? How about Oberursel in this respect?
The municipal map of Hesse sort of does when you zoom in on the Frankfurt area, given that for all their affluence, the Vortaunus (and I think also the Offenbach) suburbs did fill up in the 50s to 70s and suburban growth since has mostly been elsewhere. See also the city's suburban far north on this map.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on October 14, 2013, 04:00:25 pm
In Munich much of the AfD voting pattern seems to be random noise. I will try to explain what I mean:
Non-postal precincts had on average 557 active voters. The average of the AfD in non-postal precincts was 5.0% (including postal votes it was 4.5%). So let's assume a precincts of 557 and every voter votes AfD with a probability of 5.0%. Then the expectation would be 27.85 votes, but only ca. half of the time would the result lie in the bracket 25 - 31. And if we would consider family members and neighbors influencing each other, the bracket would be even wider.
In reality half of the non-postal precinct results lie in the bracket 4.2%-5.9%, which is a bit more than we had pure random noise distrubution, but still...

So, what remains?
* Inner-city districts, which mostly are Green strongholds, have relatively weak AfD results: Ludwigsvorstadt-Isarvorstadt at 3.3% (compared to 4.5%), Schwanthalerhöhe at 3.4%, Au-Haidhausen at 3.6% etc.
* On the other hand the district with the highest AfD percentage (5.2%) is Bogenhausen, many other districts are at 5.1% or 5.0%, but the outer districts are much more heterogenous, so we would need to look on these in detail
* The are is some detached housing, but normally only dispersed among other individual housing. When it comes to the difference between the more posh individual housing quarters (parts of Bogenhausen, Harlaching, Solln, Obermenzing, Gern, Waldtrudering etc.) and the more middle-class quarters, there are some differences, but then you find so many counterexamples...
* There seems to be a tendence towards the AfD in some peripheral and semi-peripheral not-so-well-off quarters, but these are not individual housing, but instead they often look like Frankfurt's SPD strongholds.
* Northern Bogenhausen is a bit less posh than Western Bogenhausen and has higher AfD results, though Bogenhausen as a whole was also an FDP stronghold in 2009.

It's really a mess, particularly compared to other parties of the same size (FDP, Linke) or smaller parties (Pirates, Nazis), which have clearer patterns.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on October 14, 2013, 04:02:13 pm
Likelihood of a Grand coalition raises day by day and must be at 90% right now.

And it makes sense, really. It's the coalition where everbody's happy or the least unhappy. Merkel gets to remain Chancellor, the SPD gets the Ministry of Finance, the Greens aren't forced to govern with the CDU, the CSU isn't forced to govern with the Greens, the Left isn't forced to govern with the SPD, and everbody else gets a minimum wage.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ERvND on October 14, 2013, 07:06:55 pm
SPD members, on the other hand, don't support a Grand coalition, at least as far as I can tell.

If the party members have the final say, as promised, this will cause huge problems for the leadership. In case the coalition proposal is dismissed, the leaders will of course have to resign and the party will be in disarray. If it's narrowly approved, this will also weaken the party and the new government as a whole. An overwhelming vote in favour of a new Grand coalition, though, is something I really can't imagine.

So I wonder what this membership survey is all about. From a tactical point of view, it's absolute rubbish. 



Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on October 15, 2013, 03:15:57 am
SPD members, on the other hand, don't support a Grand coalition, at least as far as I can tell.

If the party members have the final say, as promised, this will cause huge problems for the leadership. In case the coalition proposal is dismissed, the leaders will of course have to resign and the party will be in disarray. If it's narrowly approved, this will also weaken the party and the new government as a whole. An overwhelming vote in favour of a new Grand coalition, though, is something I really can't imagine.

So I wonder what this membership survey is all about. From a tactical point of view, it
's absolute rubbish. 


Fixed.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franknburger on October 15, 2013, 12:54:01 pm
From all my county-level number crunching in process, here  some interim findings on the impact of vote-by mail, based on 2 counties (Lübeck city, Stade I-Rotenburg II):

Both the FDP and the Greens under-performed on election day compared to vote by mail. The Greens underperformed by some 2.5%, resulting in their precinct results being some 0.5% below their total share. In the case of the FDP, their voting day underperformance is around 2%, reducing their precinct results by some 0.4%.

Conversely, AfD, Linke and SPD over-performed on election day. In the case of AfD, voting day over performance is around 1% (0.2% impact on total, which would have had them entering the Bundestag). For the Linke, the effect is much more pronounced in Lübeck (+2.4) than in Stade-Rotenburg (+0.9). The same applies to the SPD (Lübeck +4.3, Stade +1.4).

The CDU  under-performed in Lübeck (-3.5%). but not in Stade-Rotenburg (+0.6).

The sample is a bit small to already draw conclusions. Moreover, Grüne should generally over-perform in vote-by-mail: Students still registered to vote with their parents, younger voters going on holiday when school vacations have finished, etc. The Pirates, b.t.w., also overperformed in vote-by-mail. In the case of the FDP, you as well have some "early autumn holidays" effect among their elder, affluent clientele that should drive up their vote-by-mail.
Nevertheless, the observation may indicate some last-minute swings from Grüne to Linke and SPD, and from  FDP to CDU and AfD (possibly also an urban CDU->SPD swing), and needs to be considered when looking at my precinct maps to come.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on October 15, 2013, 01:13:13 pm
In Munich much of the AfD voting pattern seems to be random noise. I will try to explain what I mean:
Non-postal precincts had on average 557 active voters. The average of the AfD in non-postal precincts was 5.0% (including postal votes it was 4.5%). So let's assume a precincts of 557 and every voter votes AfD with a probability of 5.0%. Then the expectation would be 27.85 votes, but only ca. half of the time would the result lie in the bracket 25 - 31. And if we would consider family members and neighbors influencing each other, the bracket would be even wider.
In reality half of the non-postal precinct results lie in the bracket 4.2%-5.9%, which is a bit more than we had pure random noise distrubution, but still...

So, what remains?
* Inner-city districts, which mostly are Green strongholds, have relatively weak AfD results: Ludwigsvorstadt-Isarvorstadt at 3.3% (compared to 4.5%), Schwanthalerhöhe at 3.4%, Au-Haidhausen at 3.6% etc.
* On the other hand the district with the highest AfD percentage (5.2%) is Bogenhausen, many other districts are at 5.1% or 5.0%, but the outer districts are much more heterogenous, so we would need to look on these in detail
* The are is some detached housing, but normally only dispersed among other individual housing. When it comes to the difference between the more posh individual housing quarters (parts of Bogenhausen, Harlaching, Solln, Obermenzing, Gern, Waldtrudering etc.) and the more middle-class quarters, there are some differences, but then you find so many counterexamples...
* There seems to be a tendence towards the AfD in some peripheral and semi-peripheral not-so-well-off quarters, but these are not individual housing, but instead they often look like Frankfurt's SPD strongholds.
* Northern Bogenhausen is a bit less posh than Western Bogenhausen and has higher AfD results, though Bogenhausen as a whole was also an FDP stronghold in 2009.

It's really a mess, particularly compared to other parties of the same size (FDP, Linke) or smaller parties (Pirates, Nazis), which have clearer patterns.
Yes. This sounds right to me.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on October 15, 2013, 02:25:01 pm
(Image Link)

(Image Link)

Kassel, winning margin, turnout, SPD, CDU, Greens, Left, FDP, AfD but don't ask me for the exact keys (except the first one, which is as for WI) because I'd have to reconstruct them from the results myself. :( I do remember turnout runs in five point steps from 50+ to 80+. The area that looks like an exclave is part of the city, but is uninhabited and excluded from the borough organization. http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%C3%B6nche


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on October 15, 2013, 02:38:58 pm
@ Franknburger: Good observations. It's difficult though to differenciate between two effects:
1) Last-minute swings
2) Different political orientation of mail-voters and non-mail-voters.
For example in Munich the CSU generally overperforms among mail-voters. More so in 2009 (mail-voters 35.4%, non-mail-voters 30.3%), because there might have been a last-minute swing to the FDP. Less so in 2013 (mail-voters 38.8%, non-mail-voters 37.1%), likely because of a small last-minute swing towards the CSU.
On the other hand the SPD always overperforms among non-mail-voters. In 2009: 20.7% vs. 16.7%. In 2013: 25.5% vs. 21.5%.
The Greens in 2009 had 17.8% among mail-voters and 17.4% among non-mail-voters. In 2013: 15.2% vs. 13.3%, sign of a last-minute swing away from them.
The Linke in 2009 had 5.3% among mail-voters, but 7.5% among non-mail-voters. In 2013: 3.5% vs. 5.3%. Maybe there was a slight last-minute swing towards them both times, but the general tendence seems clear.
The FDP in 2009 had 18.4% vs. 17.1%. In 2013: 8.9% vs. 6.9%, which is a much wider difference, particularly in relative terms.
AfD 2013: 3.7% vs. 5.0%.

So in Munich I would say:
1) Small last-minute swings away from Greens, FDP, towards CSU, AfD, maybe Linke.
2) Generally CSU, FDP and Greens tend to do better among mail-voters, SPD, Linke and AfD worse. This effect can be different in other areas, for example in rural regions or in the East.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on October 15, 2013, 02:49:09 pm
In Frankfurt there has been in the past a general tendency for the Greens to underperform in postal votes in strong Green years, especially if they weren't strong SPD years as well, and to overperform in weak Green years that has nothing (or at least little) to do with late swings and everything to do with core Green voters being a somewhat postal-voting-affine group and more 'red-green' voters being more like 'pure' SPD voters in that respect (but more like core Green voters in many others, notably policies supported.) It's all about class, of course. Isn't everything? :)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on October 15, 2013, 03:32:03 pm
@ Minion of Midas: Probably there are similar patterns in Munich. And yes, much is about class.
I'm posting now a map of turnout in Munich precincts. The precinct map is based on a 2009 map from Munich's statistical office. The coloring is my own. I hope I don't violate any copyright?
(Image Link)

I would like to do either an SPD+Greens+Linke+MLPD map or an CSU+FDP map of Munich. Any preferences?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 15, 2013, 04:44:40 pm
Greens withdrawing from CDU coalition talks. (http://www.bild.de/politik/inland/koalitionsbildung/gruene-steigen-aus-sondierung-mit-der-union-aus-32983620.bild.html)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Bacon King on October 17, 2013, 01:58:32 am
http://bundeswolfpack.tumblr.com/

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on October 18, 2013, 04:59:46 am
2014 elections in Germany:

* EU Parliament (May)
* Brandenburg state election (summer/fall) - strong CDU gains likely
* Sachsen state election (summer/fall) - good chance of a CDU absolute majority
* Thüringen state election (summer/fall) - outside chance of a CDU absolute majority


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ERvND on October 18, 2013, 03:17:36 pm
Also:

Local elections in Bavaria (March), Baden-Württemberg, Brandenburg, Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia (May)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on October 19, 2013, 07:06:41 am
Also:

Local elections in Bavaria (March), Baden-Württemberg, Brandenburg, Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia (May)

Meh ... nobody really cares about those ... ;)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on October 19, 2013, 07:30:23 am
What's a local election in Hamburg? Have they decoupled city and borough elections or what? (checks) Seems to be the case.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Mangez des pommes ! on October 19, 2013, 08:10:02 am
As you may imagine, I followed these elections with great interest. :) So glad to see the FDP gone. :D And hopefully now that Merkel's future is assured for the next 4 years, hopefully she will be a bit more pragmatic in her approach to the EU.

So where are coalition talks going at this point? Are minimum wage and gay marriage all but assured at this point?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Hifly on October 19, 2013, 08:24:14 am
I'm thrilled at the prospect that a Grand Coalition will be so damaging to the SPD that it will, yet again, be in an unrecoverable state by the next election.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on October 19, 2013, 09:02:28 am
As you may imagine, I followed these elections with great interest. :) So glad to see the FDP gone. :D And hopefully now that Merkel's future is assured for the next 4 years, hopefully she will be a bit more pragmatic in her approach to the EU.

So where are coalition talks going at this point? Are minimum wage and gay marriage all but assured at this point?

Black-green is done with unless the talks for a grand coalition fail. A minimum wage does seem like a done deal and the model most seem to talk about would include a non-political commission that would periodically increase the rate to keep up with cost of living.

I've not heard anyone seriously discuss gay marriage yet.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on October 19, 2013, 09:07:34 am
Full equality of gay civil unions with marriage is going to be achieved by the end of this parliament, no matter what government we get or even if black-yellow had been reelected. We're pretty far already.

Gay marriage is a nonstarter thanks to the way things have happened the way they have.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Hifly on October 19, 2013, 09:39:43 am
I hope Merkel stands firm against Gay Marriage. However, it can certainly pass the new parliament. I don't think there are socially conservative lefties in the Bundestag and many CDU representatives support it.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on October 19, 2013, 09:51:02 am
German lawmaking doesn't work that way (except rarely, on occasion).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Hifly on October 19, 2013, 10:02:58 am
Well, it can.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on October 19, 2013, 10:30:43 am
I hope Merkel stands firm against Gay Marriage. However, it can certainly pass the new parliament. I don't think there are socially conservative lefties in the Bundestag and many CDU representatives support it.

I seriously doubt Merkel cares about gay marriage either way.

German lawmaking doesn't work that way (except rarely, on occasion).

Yes, like the abolition of tuition fees in Hessen. (Although I guess there wasn't technically a new government in place.)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DL on October 19, 2013, 04:11:32 pm
I'm thrilled at the prospect that a Grand Coalition will be so damaging to the SPD that it will, yet again, be in an unrecoverable state by the next election.

It doesn't always work that...the SPD was junior partner in a grand coalition with the CDU 1966-69 and then took the chancellorship from 1969 to 1983!


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on October 22, 2013, 07:26:46 am
INSA poll from yesterday:

CDU/CSU: 43%
SPD: 26%
Grüne: 10%
Linke: 8.5%

AfD: 4%
FDP: 3.5%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: FredLindq on October 22, 2013, 04:15:46 pm
Since there is a 3 % hurdle in the EP election both FDP and AFD Will have seats there. Amy news which group AFD Will join? ECR or EFD?!


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on October 24, 2013, 06:01:15 am
The NSA scandal has struck again.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24651975 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24651975)

Disgusting, but unsurprising.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on October 24, 2013, 06:02:30 am
New federal Allensbach poll:

CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 25%
Grüne: 9%
Linke: 9%
AfD: 5.5%
FDP: 5%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on October 24, 2013, 06:06:55 am
FDP at five? Srsly?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on October 24, 2013, 06:11:26 am
Two days before the election, Allensbach had the FDP at 5.5%.

In fact, the last time they had the FDP below 5% was last December.

They're apparently very persistent in ignoring reality.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: sirius3100 on October 24, 2013, 09:13:35 am
Since there is a 3 % hurdle in the EP election both FDP and AFD Will have seats there. Amy news which group AFD Will join? ECR or EFD?!
1. I expect the AFD to do way better at the EU election next year with them being one of the few options eurosceptic voters have. It wouldn't surprise me if they get a result in the double digits.
2. It isn't clear if there really will be a 3% treshold. In my opinion it is likely that the constitutional court will rule against that treshold.

I haven't read any news regarding your real question.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on October 24, 2013, 09:27:51 am
Since there is a 3 % hurdle in the EP election both FDP and AFD Will have seats there. Amy news which group AFD Will join? ECR or EFD?!
1. I expect the AFD to do way better at the EU election next year with them being one of the few options eurosceptic voters have. It wouldn't surprise me if they get a result in the double digits.
While it's impossible to predict and your outcome is well within the result of possibility... in Germany, unlike some other countries, the Euro electorate has always tended to be more 'pro-European' than the population at large, not less.
Quote
2. It isn't clear if there really will be a 3% treshold. In my opinion it is likely that the constitutional court will rule against that treshold.

I haven't read any news regarding your real question.
This is both correct. (I actually searched for clues on the latter question, but I don't really expect any kind of answers until just before the election, possibly even not until right after. I doubt it's high on the party leadership's to-do list right now.)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: rob in cal on October 25, 2013, 07:32:13 pm
Speaking of lower threshold hurdles for the EP, are there any proposals to lower the threshold hurdles in Landtag or even Bundestag elections that mainstream parties and politicians are talking about?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on October 26, 2013, 04:44:14 am
They're not talking about it all that much, and the media don't report it when they do, but the Left proposes to abolish the threshold for federal elections, and have introduced bills to that effect.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Famous Mortimer on October 26, 2013, 05:12:56 am
Abolish it altogether? How would that work? Or do they just want to set it low at like 1%?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on October 26, 2013, 05:25:43 am
Abolish altogether. And yeah, that'd mean you win a seat at about 0.1% of the nationwide vote.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on October 28, 2013, 05:19:25 am
Emnid federal poll:

CDU/CSU 41%
SPD 26%
Grüne: 10%
Linke: 9%
AfD: 5%

FDP: 3%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 29, 2013, 01:02:44 pm
Wait, so what happened with forming a government? Is it officially going to be a Grand Coalition or are they still negotiating?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on October 29, 2013, 06:57:16 pm
Wait, so what happened with forming a government? Is it officially going to be a Grand Coalition or are they still negotiating?

The coalition negotiations between CDU/CSU and the SPD are ongoing. (But it's pretty obvious both sides want it.)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on October 30, 2013, 04:51:01 pm
To be precise, the SPD is currently trying to figure if they want the Ministry of Finance or if they want to forfeit it in exchange for more of their platform planks being pushed through...

But yeah, barring a very surprising turn of events, it's gonna be a Grand coalition.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on October 30, 2013, 05:06:00 pm
And in Hessen? Black-green coalition?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on October 30, 2013, 05:31:55 pm

Don't have much clue about Hesse, but perhaps Lewis knows more about it.

Last thing I heard is that CDU + SPD, CDU + Greens, and even SPD, Greens + Left are still negotiating with each other. But they have the advantage that the state parliament's new term doesn't start until January or something, while the new elected Bundestag's legislative period had already begun earlier this month. So the Hessians aren't really in a rush.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ERvND on October 30, 2013, 05:48:00 pm
But yeah, barring a very surprising turn of events, it's gonna be a Grand coalition.

The only potential hurdle right now is the SPD members poll.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on November 01, 2013, 01:07:01 pm

Don't have much clue about Hesse, but perhaps Lewis knows more about it.

Last thing I heard is that CDU + SPD, CDU + Greens, and even SPD, Greens + Left are still negotiating with each other.
sondieren, so sort of pre-negotiating. But the the "and even" should be placed before Black-Green; clearly the least probable outcome.

It also remains entirely possible that no government will be formed at all and we'll vote again some day. But the likelihood of that has clearly decreased.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on November 02, 2013, 06:30:29 am
(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on November 03, 2013, 06:05:23 am
"Fresh wind" for the Greens:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on November 03, 2013, 12:03:01 pm
About three minutes ago the polls have closed in Berlin's referendum on renationalizing energy supply in the city-state (which is currently run by Swedish company Vattenfall).

Results will be published here as soon as they come in:
https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/abstimmungen/VE2013_NEnergie/Ergebnisprozent.asp?sel1=6052&sel2=0798

Turnout is currently estimated at 30% which means that the necessary quorum of 25% yes votes could have been reached. (25% of all eligible voters have to vote "yes" as well as a majority of the voters who actually cast a ballot in the referendum).

Back in 2011, there was a similar referendum regarding the water supply in Berlin. It had a turnout of 27.5%, with 98% voting in favour.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on November 03, 2013, 02:03:28 pm
Turnout: 29.1%
Yes votes: 83.0% (= 24.1% of eligible voters)
No votes: 16.8%

The referendum has therefore failed to produce the required quorum of 25% yes votes from all eligible voters.


Highest turnout: 36.9% in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg
Lowest turnout: 23.3% in Marzahn-Hellersdorf

Most yes votes: 92.9% in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg
Most no votes: 26.4% in Reinickendorf

I guess it's not completely a coincidence that in the recent Bundestag election the CDU had its best result in Reinickendorf and the Greens their best result in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg.

And Marzahn-Hellersdorf also had the lowest turnout in the Bundestag election (since the people there are not interested in politics as long as no criminal immigrants come to their borough and take away their non-existing jobs :P ).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Mynheer Peeperkorn on November 03, 2013, 02:07:39 pm
Emnid federal poll:

CDU/CSU 41%
SPD 26%
Grüne: 10%
Linke: 9%
AfD: 5%

FDP: 3%

Germany seems to be the most "polled" country in the world.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on November 04, 2013, 08:26:38 am
Emnid federal poll:

CDU/CSU 41%
SPD 26%
Grüne: 10%
Linke: 9%
AfD: 5%

FDP: 3%

Germany seems to be the most "polled" country in the world.

We really do get a lot of polls... Speaking of which:

There's a new Forsa state poll for Berlin out (although the next election is in 3 years):
(Changes in comparison to the 2011 election)

CDU: 27% (+4%)
SPD: 27% (-1%)
Grüne: 16% (-2%)
Linke: 16% (+4%)
AfD: 5% (+5%)

Piraten: 3% (-6%)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on November 04, 2013, 01:33:12 pm
There's a new Forsa state poll for Berlin out (although the next election is in 3 years):
(Changes in comparison to the 2011 election)

...

Piraten: 3% (-6%)


It seems plausible that the Pirates won't have representation in any state parliament a couple of years from now. It was just a fad after all.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DL on November 04, 2013, 05:48:32 pm


There's a new Forsa state poll for Berlin out (although the next election is in 3 years):
(Changes in comparison to the 2011 election)

CDU: 27% (+4%)
SPD: 27% (-1%)
Grüne: 16% (-2%)
Linke: 16% (+4%)
AfD: 5% (+5%)

Piraten: 3% (-6%)


I guess the FDP is at ZERO?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on November 04, 2013, 06:15:12 pm
Probably around 1% in Berlin. They've been counted as "others" for a while in Berlin. And in 2011, I think they were under 2%.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: njwes on November 04, 2013, 06:17:56 pm
There's a new Forsa state poll for Berlin out (although the next election is in 3 years):
(Changes in comparison to the 2011 election)

...

Piraten: 3% (-6%)


It seems plausible that the Pirates won't have representation in any state parliament a couple of years from now. It was just a fad after all.

It's nice to see the Pirate fad has run its course across Europe, I've seen enough V for Vendetta masks to tide me over for a decade or so ;)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: njwes on November 04, 2013, 06:18:46 pm
Old Europe, why do you think the opposition to the nationalization (while still quite small) increased so notably since the 2011 referendum?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on November 05, 2013, 04:18:06 am
Old Europe, why do you think the opposition to the nationalization (while still quite small) increased so notably since the 2011 referendum?

First of all, the state government sort of "defused" the situation by promising beforehand that they would implement at least part of the referendum's demands... namely the establishment of a separate, additional power plant which is run on renewable energies.

Second, the 2011 water referendum didn't call for a renationalization as explicitly. It demanded that the water supply privatization contracts shall be made public and if any irregularities were to be found in them that they should be declared null and void.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on November 08, 2013, 06:45:58 pm
Infratest dimap state poll from Baden-Württemberg (change in relation to 2011 election):

CDU: 43% (+4%)
Grüne: 22% (-2%)
SPD: 19% (-4%)
AfD: 5% (+5%)

Linke: 4% (+1%)
FDP: 4% (-1%)


The current green-red government would lose its majority.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on November 10, 2013, 07:54:41 am
Two new polls:

State election in Thüringen (they vote next year) from INSA (changes in relation to the 2009 election):
CDU: 36% (+5%)
Linke: 27% (n.c.)
SPD: 14% (-5%)
AfD: 6% (+6%)
Grüne: 6% (n.c.)

FDP: 2% (-6%)

So nothing to see here, grand coalition would be continued...



Federal poll from Emnid:
CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 26%
Grüne: 10%
Linke: 9%
AfD: 5%

FDP: 3%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on November 14, 2013, 12:34:25 pm
Red-red-green will not govern Hessen.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/wahl-in-hessen/schaefer-guembel-wird-nicht-ministerpraesident-aus-der-traum-12663348.html (http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/wahl-in-hessen/schaefer-guembel-wird-nicht-ministerpraesident-aus-der-traum-12663348.html)

So either black-green, grand coalition or new elections.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Mangez des pommes ! on November 14, 2013, 12:46:11 pm
Shame. :(


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on November 18, 2013, 11:58:36 am
Brandenburg has chosen a date for their state election next year:

September 14


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on November 22, 2013, 06:57:48 am
Looks like CDU and Greens have sorted out many differences and will negotiate forming a black-green government here in Hessen.

http://m.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/koalitionsverhandlungen-cdu-will-schwarz-gruen-in-hessen-12675851.html (http://m.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/koalitionsverhandlungen-cdu-will-schwarz-gruen-in-hessen-12675851.html)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on November 22, 2013, 07:16:19 am
Considering how long they've been having discussions about virtually every option out there, I think this means they're quite serious and that we will get the first black-green government in a Flächenland.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on November 26, 2013, 12:35:53 pm
Anyway, the federal coalition talks between CDU/CSU and SPD are coming to an end:

It appears the SPD has agreed to forget about tax increases, will accept the general toll for the Autobahn, and will also forget about restricting the salaries of CEOs.

In exchange for this, it looks like the CDU/CSU will give them: a minimum wage of 8,50€ starting in 2015 (although there would be certain exceptions for the first 2 years), full equality of gay civil unions (possibly also including the right to adopt, although they're quite vague on the details), a gender quota for certain leadership posts.

I'm sure I'm forgetting a lot, but it seems like the parties are coming to an overall agreement.


Let's see whether the SPD members also agree to it in their referendum.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on November 26, 2013, 01:22:13 pm
It appears the SPD has agreed to forget about tax increases, will accept the general toll for the Autobahn, and will also forget about restricting the salaries of CEOs.

In exchange for this, it looks like the CDU/CSU will give them: a minimum wage of 8,50€ starting in 2015 (although there would be certain exceptions for the first 2 years), full equality of gay civil unions (possibly also including the right to adopt, although they're quite vague on the details), a gender quota for certain leadership posts.

It all sounded so good until the affermative action.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on November 27, 2013, 10:34:39 am
Merkel, Seehofer and Gabriel have signed the contract for Germany's 3rd grand coalition.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/10477272/Angela-Merkel-agrees-to-form-coalition-with-Social-Democrats.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/10477272/Angela-Merkel-agrees-to-form-coalition-with-Social-Democrats.html)

It still needs to survive the vote among SPD party members, however.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on November 27, 2013, 10:36:16 am
Merkel, Seehofer and Gabriel have signed the contract for Germany's 3rd grand coalition.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/10477272/Angela-Merkel-agrees-to-form-coalition-with-Social-Democrats.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/10477272/Angela-Merkel-agrees-to-form-coalition-with-Social-Democrats.html)

It still needs to survive the vote among SPD party members, however.

Just a formality ...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on November 27, 2013, 10:39:55 am
Merkel, Seehofer and Gabriel have signed the contract for Germany's 3rd grand coalition.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/10477272/Angela-Merkel-agrees-to-form-coalition-with-Social-Democrats.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/10477272/Angela-Merkel-agrees-to-form-coalition-with-Social-Democrats.html)

It still needs to survive the vote among SPD party members, however.

Just a formality ...

What makes you so certain? I'm not so convinced. More likely than not....but let's wait and see.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on November 27, 2013, 10:46:05 am
Besides, let's see if the Germans can really implement the road toll for foreigners only ...

It's unlikely that the European Court of Justice will uphold a law that discriminates foreigners.

And Austrian Transport Minister Doris Bures has already said she will bring the case to the ECoJ if Germany implements it:

http://www.tt.com/politik/7536387-91/deutsche-maut-bures-droht-mit-eugh.csp

(Which of course is the correct decision to do on part of the Austrian Minister, as long as the Germans don't compensate us for their students crowding our universities free of charge).

Also, there have been several cases here in Austria from German tourists a few years ago, filing charges against the benefits for Austrian citizens for skiing area passes (Austrians got a discount when they went skiing, while Germans and other tourists had to pay the full price for the ski card). This was scrapped by the ECoJ and everyone needs to pay the same price now.

So, there's already a precedent on this and ironically brought into the field by Germans ... :P

So, let it fail ... ;)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on November 27, 2013, 10:46:27 am
The road toll wouldn't be for foreigners only, not sure where you're getting that idea. The Austrians really have no room to complain here, considering the amounts they make for short term tolls. The university comparison is also rather odd, considering that tuition fees hardly exist anymore here either.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on November 27, 2013, 10:49:51 am
The road toll wouldn't be for foreigners only, not sure where you're getting that idea. The Austrians really have no room to complain here, considering the amounts they make for short term tolls. The university comparison is also rather odd, considering that tuition fees hardly exist anymore here either.

The road toll is for Germans and foreigners, but the German car owners get the road-toll cost back via lower car-insurance taxes, no ? At least that's what I've read. Which means Germans are exemt from the toll.

Plus, we can complain because we have to pay the full toll as well, like all German tourists need as well ...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on November 27, 2013, 10:54:58 am
The road toll wouldn't be for foreigners only, not sure where you're getting that idea. The Austrians really have no room to complain here, considering the amounts they make for short term tolls. The university comparison is also rather odd, considering that tuition fees hardly exist anymore here either.

The road toll is for Germans and foreigners, but the German car owners get the road-toll cost back via lower car-insurance taxes, no ? At least that's what I've read. Which means Germans are exemt from the toll.

Plus, we can complain because we have to pay the full toll as well, like all German tourists need as well ...

You haven't answered the part about the universities... :) Austrians are just as entitled to free universities in Germany (in all but 1 state, at least) as the other way around. Now there are other reasons the latter is more common (numerus clausus), but it still doesn't have anything to do with motorway fees.

The argument about lowering our automobile tax to compensate for the toll is true, but I still think it's an unfair complaint. What if we lowered certain income taxes to make it a neutral fee? Domestic taxation policy is an internal political matter.



Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: FredLindq on November 27, 2013, 02:22:45 pm
Sozialdemoratische Union Deutschlands!


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franknburger on November 27, 2013, 02:38:05 pm
The road toll will never come. It needs Bundesrat approval - if the compensation shall be done via vehicle tax, that tax' revenue is for the States, and the Federation will also need State institutions for road toll collection (car registration offices, etc.). Means at least a lengthy negotiation process (how will the Federal Government compensate the States for less vehicle tax revenue and administration costs for toll collection), but most likely ultimately failure (Greens have usually been clever enough to put a veto clause on Budesrat voting in their state-level coalition agreements).
I just don't understand why the SPD put so much effort into negotiating the toll at all, instead of just saying "o.k." and killing it afterwards in the Bundesrat ...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Mangez des pommes ! on November 27, 2013, 03:37:01 pm
Meh, the agreement is a bit disappointing, but I guess that considering the numbers the SPD could hardly get anything else. I'm happy for German workers, the minimum wage will be a great thing.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on November 27, 2013, 05:39:16 pm
Meh, the agreement is a bit disappointing, but I guess that considering the numbers the SPD could hardly get anything else. I'm happy for German workers, the minimum wage will be a great thing.

The SPD really did themselves relatively cheap, although given the Union's 41%, that's not terribly surprising.

To be honest, I'd be more interested in seeing black-green at federal level as well, but unless the SPD members revolt..and even then....not gonna happen.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franknburger on November 28, 2013, 03:29:55 am
To be honest, I'd be more interested in seeing black-green at federal level as well, but unless the SPD members revolt..and even then....not gonna happen.
Our local newspaper has asked a number of people -local politicians as well as people from the street - on their opinion. The politicians (either SPD or CDU) all lauded the compromise, people from the street said they would have preferred black-green after all. But its not going to happen -the old Green leadership (Trittin/ Roth) has destroyed too many bridges during the election campaign, and the new leadership needs time to refocus the party.

"Cheap" is actually not a correct word to describe the outcome - the agreement includes 23 billion Euros extra spending (infrastructure, pensions, etc.), and nobody knows yet how to finance it. Merkel boosts her pride to have blocked any tax increases proposed by the SPD.

Furthermore, as could be expected from a Grand Coalition, the compromise includes more government rights for storing and exploiting data on citizens (including telecommunications usage) - as if there never had been something like the NSA affair. Greens, but also what is left from the FDP, have already voiced their protest.
Expansion of wind power shall be curtailed, coal-fired power plants get operation guarantees - the old "coal miring' SPD is back.

A final observation: The pension compromise that nobody knows how to finance yet includes the right to go into pension at 63, provided people have worked at least for 45 years (SPD), and higher pension entitlement for motherhood times (CDU). The SPD is criticising the CDU's old-fashioned gender perspective, without realising that 99,9% of the people to benefit from the "pension after 45 years of work" will be (blue collar) males. Both parties have failed to provide any answer to the pension needs of today's women (especially single mothers), who typically  will combine periods of motherhood, part-time and full-time work in their biography.

In short - a rather fragile compromise between the traditionalists in both parties, brought about by classical "cheque-book diplomacy", which fails to address various challenges of the 21st century.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on November 28, 2013, 03:54:10 am
I meant cheap in the sense that there's nothing in the contract that seriously bothers the Union. I think the Greens would have more to show for themselves if such a coalition happened.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on November 29, 2013, 05:11:24 am
SPD crashing further on Forsa:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 23%
Linke: 10%
Grüne: 9%
AfD: 5%

FDP: 3%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on November 29, 2013, 06:12:45 am
Hannelore Kraft: "I will never run for Chancellor."


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on November 29, 2013, 06:59:43 am

That's a shame. Even for someone who usually votes CDU, I would welcome an "aggressive" and authentic social democrat for a change.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Mangez des pommes ! on November 29, 2013, 07:13:20 am

NO!!!! :'(


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 29, 2013, 09:43:22 am
Fourth term, here we come!


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Peter the Lefty on November 29, 2013, 11:45:53 am
NO HANNELORE!  We need you!  Please change your mind before 2017, I beg of you!


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 29, 2013, 11:50:22 am
Isn't the general rule that when a politician explicitly rules out something in the not immediate future, said denial should not be taken terribly seriously?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on November 29, 2013, 11:51:36 am
Isn't the general rule that when a politician explicitly rules out something in the not immediate future, said denial should not be taken terribly seriously?

I'd normally agree, but she did explicitly say "never". Wouldn't surprise me if she were serious.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 29, 2013, 11:59:33 am
I don't disagree: just thought that someone had to point out the obvious.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on November 29, 2013, 12:18:14 pm
Mhm, it seems like today's major headline is THE INTERVIEW.

SPD chairman Sigmar Gabriel was interviewed by ZDF anchor Marietta Slomka and it went basically like this...


Slomka: Isn't the SPD membership poll on the coalition agreement unconstitutional, because the SPD members' decision regarding entering a Grand coalition could ultimately supersede the voters' decision to enter a Grand coalition on election day?

Gabriel: No, because in the CDU/CSU only the top leadership decides whether to enter a coalition. In our party, all members decide. That's more democratic.

Slomka: But some political scientists say that it's unconstitutional.

Gabriel: I don't see how it could be unconstitutional when in my party all members are allowed vote on the coalition agreement, while in the CDU/CSU only the party leaders make that decision.

Slomka: But isn't it unconstitutional?

Gabriel: No, because in that case the CDU/CSU leadership's decision to enter this coalition would be even more unconsitutional.

Slomka: But political scientsts say that it could be unconsitutional.

Gabriel: No, that's bullsh**t.

Slomka: That's no reasonable way to respond to my arguments.

Gabriel: Maybe, but you have a history of unfairly attacking SPD politicians in your interviews.

Slomka: I reject this allegation.


Somewhat surprisingly, CSU chairman Horst Seehofer came to Gabriel's defense and wrote a letter to the ZDF donouncing Slomka's conduct of the interview.

The assessments in the public diescourse ranges from "both acted unprofessionally, the only question is who was more unprofessionally" to "well, at least it was an entertaining interview".

Interview can be found here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izW4Fzrp-DI


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Hifly on November 29, 2013, 12:19:47 pm
Haha to all the SPD hacks who were putting their hopes on Hannelore Kraft. This is brilliant, brilliant news.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Mangez des pommes ! on November 29, 2013, 12:32:24 pm
This Slomka sounds like a major idiot.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 29, 2013, 12:36:25 pm
Hilarious


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 29, 2013, 12:39:26 pm
The anchor didn't know what she was talking about. I'd have asked if he was thwarting the electorate's will.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 29, 2013, 12:42:51 pm
Actually, could someone more familiar with German constitutional matters explain what the anchor was even trying to argue? Because to me it seems to be verging on Insane Troll Logic.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on November 29, 2013, 12:49:32 pm
The best part was at the end when she said "Thank you Mr. Gabriel for that discussion !" and a smile that makes your boner shrink in a second.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: You kip if you want to... on November 29, 2013, 12:54:04 pm
On Kraft, don't forget she has to still win reelection in North Rhine-Westphalia before the next general election.

The voters there would probably react badly if it looked like she was just using the Minister-Presidency as a placeholder until 2017.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franknburger on November 29, 2013, 04:50:58 pm
Actually, could someone more familiar with German constitutional matters explain what the anchor was even trying to argue? Because to me it seems to be verging on Insane Troll Logic.
She referred to certain experts in constitutional law (according  to her quoted by all major newspapers, which I myself must have overlooked). These experts pointed out that the German constitution guarantees the independence of MPs, subjecting them only to their personal assessment and conscience. The anchor asked how that could go together with a party vote on the coalition agreement.
Gabriel answered that the membership vote did not relate to any specific parliamentary vote (where each MP still retains personal autonomy), but to whether the SPD leadership should sign the coalition agreement with the CDU or not. As such, it was a party-internal matter. Moreover, the German constitution explicitly provides political parties with the role "to participate in political opinion-building", and the Law on Political Parties obliges all parties to internal democracy. As such, it might rather be asked whether the CDU, having only their board voting on the coalition agreement, complied with constitutional and legal prescriptions, than the SPD.

So far, so good. Legitimate question, convincing answer. Next question, please.

Everything afterwards is a bit difficult to understand. So far, Mrs. Slomka has been a pretty good anchor. Well prepared, asking the right questions, not letting politicians get away with their usual bubbles. She probably was annoyed that Gabriel did not answer her initial question: "There were quite a number of critical comments tonight. Getting the members to agree may still take some effort, Mr. Gabriel" - " You obviously haven't listened to what was said here tonight ...". Gabriel's start was also not really polite "Good evening, Mr. Gabriel" - "Good evening".

Merkel's "women in media" network is well known. Aside from Friede Springer (BILD tabloid, SAT 1/ Pro7 TV networks), it includes former ARD anchor Sabine Christiansen, possibly also Liz Mohn (Bertelsmann - RTL TV network, STERN magazine, various local newspapers, minority share in SPIEGEL,  etc.). The Greens have openly blamed their loss on this media network, and the SPD apparently shares that assessment to some extent. Gabriel, in one of his later statements ("This is not the first time you try to turn an SPD leader's statement into the opposite of its meaning"), indicated that he believes Mrs. Slomka to belong to that network as well.
This, in turn, makes you wonder why he agreed to the interview in first place, instead of letting party secretary Andrea Nahles do the job. Maybe he intended to get Mrs. Slomka acting unprofessionally - and she did him the favour...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ERvND on November 29, 2013, 06:00:33 pm
Regarding Kraft, what was the real background of her remarks?

To understand this, you have to know that Sigmar Gabriel is highly unpopular within his own party. He was unpopular already before the elections, but it has gotten even worse since the coalition talks. Now, there are fears within party leadership that some (actually, a lot of) members might utilize the impending membership votum as a motion of no confidence against Gabriel. Their reasoning might go as follows: If we vote against the grand coalition now, Gabriel will have to resign (which is true), then Kraft will take over and be our chancellor candidate in 2017.

By negating her ambitions, Kraft effectively closed this door. She let the SPD members know that if they topple Gabriel now, they won't get her, but some mediocre figure (again) in 2017. Thereby, she sacrificed herself for the good of the party. Ironically, this gesture will embiggen her chances in the future, when Gabriel has to step back for other reasons. So, denying her ambitions was a very smart move, actually.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on November 29, 2013, 06:41:32 pm
Actually, could someone more familiar with German constitutional matters explain what the anchor was even trying to argue? Because to me it seems to be verging on Insane Troll Logic.
She referred to certain experts in constitutional law (according  to her quoted by all major newspapers, which I myself must have overlooked).

To my knowledge, she was referring to an argument made by a professor named Christoph Degenhardt... so, it's "expert", actually... as in singular.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Peter the Lefty on December 01, 2013, 04:33:40 pm
Regarding Kraft, what was the real background of her remarks?

To understand this, you have to know that Sigmar Gabriel is highly unpopular within his own party. He was unpopular already before the elections, but it has gotten even worse since the coalition talks. Now, there are fears within party leadership that some (actually, a lot of) members might utilize the impending membership votum as a motion of no confidence against Gabriel. Their reasoning might go as follows: If we vote against the grand coalition now, Gabriel will have to resign (which is true), then Kraft will take over and be our chancellor candidate in 2017.

By negating her ambitions, Kraft effectively closed this door. She let the SPD members know that if they topple Gabriel now, they won't get her, but some mediocre figure (again) in 2017. Thereby, she sacrificed herself for the good of the party. Ironically, this gesture will embiggen her chances in the future, when Gabriel has to step back for other reasons. So, denying her ambitions was a very smart move, actually.
I sure do hope.  The problem is, even with someone who isn't in the coalition, the SPD is probably headed for a collapse in 2017.  By 2021, Hannelore will be yesterday's news.  At least Manuela Schwesig might be ready by then.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Hifly on December 01, 2013, 04:46:40 pm
Regarding Kraft, what was the real background of her remarks?

To understand this, you have to know that Sigmar Gabriel is highly unpopular within his own party. He was unpopular already before the elections, but it has gotten even worse since the coalition talks. Now, there are fears within party leadership that some (actually, a lot of) members might utilize the impending membership votum as a motion of no confidence against Gabriel. Their reasoning might go as follows: If we vote against the grand coalition now, Gabriel will have to resign (which is true), then Kraft will take over and be our chancellor candidate in 2017.

By negating her ambitions, Kraft effectively closed this door. She let the SPD members know that if they topple Gabriel now, they won't get her, but some mediocre figure (again) in 2017. Thereby, she sacrificed herself for the good of the party. Ironically, this gesture will embiggen her chances in the future, when Gabriel has to step back for other reasons. So, denying her ambitions was a very smart move, actually.
I sure do hope.  The problem is, even with someone who isn't in the coalition, the SPD is probably headed for a collapse in 2017.  By 2021, Hannelore will be yesterday's news.  At least Manuela Schwesig might be ready by then.

Are you a German citizen or are you planning to come live in Germany? Why are you so concerned about trying to impose an SPD government upon us if you'll never have to live under it?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on December 01, 2013, 05:04:56 pm
Regarding Kraft, what was the real background of her remarks?

To understand this, you have to know that Sigmar Gabriel is highly unpopular within his own party. He was unpopular already before the elections, but it has gotten even worse since the coalition talks. Now, there are fears within party leadership that some (actually, a lot of) members might utilize the impending membership votum as a motion of no confidence against Gabriel. Their reasoning might go as follows: If we vote against the grand coalition now, Gabriel will have to resign (which is true), then Kraft will take over and be our chancellor candidate in 2017.

By negating her ambitions, Kraft effectively closed this door. She let the SPD members know that if they topple Gabriel now, they won't get her, but some mediocre figure (again) in 2017. Thereby, she sacrificed herself for the good of the party. Ironically, this gesture will embiggen her chances in the future, when Gabriel has to step back for other reasons. So, denying her ambitions was a very smart move, actually.
I sure do hope.  The problem is, even with someone who isn't in the coalition, the SPD is probably headed for a collapse in 2017.  By 2021, Hannelore will be yesterday's news.  At least Manuela Schwesig might be ready by then.

Are you a German citizen or are you planning to come live in Germany? Why are you so concerned about trying to impose an SPD government upon us if you'll never have to live under it?

Why do you care about American elections?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Hifly on December 01, 2013, 05:17:04 pm
Regarding Kraft, what was the real background of her remarks?

To understand this, you have to know that Sigmar Gabriel is highly unpopular within his own party. He was unpopular already before the elections, but it has gotten even worse since the coalition talks. Now, there are fears within party leadership that some (actually, a lot of) members might utilize the impending membership votum as a motion of no confidence against Gabriel. Their reasoning might go as follows: If we vote against the grand coalition now, Gabriel will have to resign (which is true), then Kraft will take over and be our chancellor candidate in 2017.

By negating her ambitions, Kraft effectively closed this door. She let the SPD members know that if they topple Gabriel now, they won't get her, but some mediocre figure (again) in 2017. Thereby, she sacrificed herself for the good of the party. Ironically, this gesture will embiggen her chances in the future, when Gabriel has to step back for other reasons. So, denying her ambitions was a very smart move, actually.
I sure do hope.  The problem is, even with someone who isn't in the coalition, the SPD is probably headed for a collapse in 2017.  By 2021, Hannelore will be yesterday's news.  At least Manuela Schwesig might be ready by then.

Are you a German citizen or are you planning to come live in Germany? Why are you so concerned about trying to impose an SPD government upon us if you'll never have to live under it?

Why do you care about American elections?

American elections are important on an intercontinental level- and I care about there being a Democratic President so that a liberal foreign policy can be pursued.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on December 01, 2013, 05:19:45 pm
Regarding Kraft, what was the real background of her remarks?

To understand this, you have to know that Sigmar Gabriel is highly unpopular within his own party. He was unpopular already before the elections, but it has gotten even worse since the coalition talks. Now, there are fears within party leadership that some (actually, a lot of) members might utilize the impending membership votum as a motion of no confidence against Gabriel. Their reasoning might go as follows: If we vote against the grand coalition now, Gabriel will have to resign (which is true), then Kraft will take over and be our chancellor candidate in 2017.

By negating her ambitions, Kraft effectively closed this door. She let the SPD members know that if they topple Gabriel now, they won't get her, but some mediocre figure (again) in 2017. Thereby, she sacrificed herself for the good of the party. Ironically, this gesture will embiggen her chances in the future, when Gabriel has to step back for other reasons. So, denying her ambitions was a very smart move, actually.
I sure do hope.  The problem is, even with someone who isn't in the coalition, the SPD is probably headed for a collapse in 2017.  By 2021, Hannelore will be yesterday's news.  At least Manuela Schwesig might be ready by then.

Are you a German citizen or are you planning to come live in Germany? Why are you so concerned about trying to impose an SPD government upon us if you'll never have to live under it?

Why do you care about American elections?

American elections are important on an intercontinental level- and I care about there being a Democratic President so that a liberal foreign policy can be pursued.

Which is perfectly legitimate, just as there can be reasons for a non-German to care about our politics.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ERvND on December 02, 2013, 02:30:54 pm
(Image Link)

The SPD vote has started.

Despite being very sceptical at first, I voted in favour of the grand coalition.

Here is why: As I have stated on numerous occasions, the very concept of Social Democracy, and therefore the SPD, is doomed. This has almost nothing to do with current events and very much with general demographic and socio-economic trends.

Hence, both possible results of the vote will have the same consequences: If the party votes against the coalition, Merkel will induce new elections, resulting in an absolute majority for the CDU/CSU and an epic downfall for the SPD. If they form a grand coalition, on the other hand, the same will happen in 2017 that already happend in 2009 (to the SPD) and 2013 (to the FDP): Merkel's coalition "partner" will be slaughtered at the polls.

So, the results will be the same anyway - a massive collapse in the next elections. Basically, you only have to choose when it will happen. If that's the case, the SPD might as well cling to power for four final years, effectively delaying the party's demise for this period of time. That's still a bleak perspective, but better than nothing.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Hifly on December 02, 2013, 02:47:09 pm

Here is why: As I have stated on numerous occasions, the very concept of Social Democracy, and therefore the SPD, is doomed. This has almost nothing to do with current events and very much with general demographic and socio-economic trends.... 
So, the results will be the same anyway - a massive collapse in the next elections
. Basically, you only have to choose when it will happen. If that's the case, the SPD might as well cling to power for four final years, effectively delaying the party's demise for this period of time. That's still a bleak perspective, but better than nothing.

Do your fellow party members that you've spoken to also acknowledge this or are many too deluded?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 02, 2013, 04:34:36 pm
There are people like that in the Labour Party as well. I don't understand why.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ERvND on December 02, 2013, 04:44:48 pm

Here is why: As I have stated on numerous occasions, the very concept of Social Democracy, and therefore the SPD, is doomed. This has almost nothing to do with current events and very much with general demographic and socio-economic trends.... 
So, the results will be the same anyway - a massive collapse in the next elections
. Basically, you only have to choose when it will happen. If that's the case, the SPD might as well cling to power for four final years, effectively delaying the party's demise for this period of time. That's still a bleak perspective, but better than nothing.

Do your fellow party members that you've spoken to also acknowledge this or are many too deluded?

In this situation, one might expect a great extent of delusion, but interestingly enough, most party members I have spoken to agree with me and acknowledge that the current crisis of Social Democracy is not a temporary, but a fundamental phenomenon.

Some are very emotional about the impending development, but a pragmatic point of view prevails. Of course, most party members are over 65 years old (the SPD membership is already disproportionally old), so it's comprehensible that they have no hope to stop the overall trend, when at the same time they simply carry on and anticipate they won't live long enough to see the end of the party.  


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 02, 2013, 04:59:25 pm
You've made that case a lot but have yet to come up with a shred of credible evidence for it. A pattern that I'm also very familiar with.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Hifly on December 02, 2013, 05:01:57 pm
As the population becomes richer and more educated over time, this can surely help erode SPD support.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: MaxQue on December 02, 2013, 05:33:35 pm
Well, it's sure than if you want to copy the exact same social democracy than in the 70's, this won't work. Ideologies change over time. Anyways, right now European Social Democracy is mostly slowing down neoliberalism, which isn't inspiring. Social Democracy has to reinvent itself, like Conservatism/Christian Democracy did.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 02, 2013, 05:46:00 pm
I don't see the SPD collapsing. Who'd replace them as the CDU's centre-left (broadly speaking) rival?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ERvND on December 02, 2013, 06:23:47 pm
When referring to personal encounters with fellow party members, I am of course "locally biased". It's a fact that where I live - Bavaria - the erosion of the party is already far advanced. There are towns of more than 10,000 people where the local chapter consists of five to ten members, all over the age of 65. It's entirely obvious that in ten to fifteen years' time, the SPD will have vanished outside the big cities.

The CSU, in contrast, is stronger than ever. They also lose members, but at a slower rate; moreover, their membership is younger and more diverse. Above all, they have made it very clear that they need no centre-left rival at all, as they provide room for almost every demographic and social group themselves.

I'm aware that all of this is only anecdotal evidence. If you look around, however, you'll discern the same pattern all over Germany, if not Europe.

The main problem - here and everywhere - is really of a sociological nature. There is simply no one left who could or should vote for a Social Democratic party. Social Democracy has fulfilled its tasks, hereby becoming superfluous. I know there is always the possibility of changes in the future, and I won't deny the trend might reverse some day. But right now, I simply see no starting point for such a shift.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on December 02, 2013, 06:59:08 pm
The problem with social democracy and its popular support, is that they now prefer the rich, the filthily wealthy corporate types, to the actual people. Not a good way to keep popular support.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 02, 2013, 07:52:18 pm
The main problem - here and everywhere - is really of a sociological nature. There is simply no one left who could or should vote for a Social Democratic party. Social Democracy has fulfilled its tasks, hereby becoming superfluous. I know there is always the possibility of changes in the future, and I won't deny the trend might reverse some day. But right now, I simply see no starting point for such a shift.

I am familiar with this argument as it is one that people have been making for nearly sixty years. I believe that this fact speaks for itself.

It is true, of course, that the great changes in the economic, political, ideological and social structures of 'the West' over the past thirty or so years have been highly damaging to the electoral prospects of most socialist parties. It would, of course, be pointless and delusional to deny this (which is why no one actually does). But there is a fundamental difference between electoral decline as a result of a changing 'climate' and political death (or near death) as a result of it. Notably the parties that the latter applied (apply) to were (are) the various Communist ones. They had their feet cut from under them, poor devils (not that they were actually poor, of course, lol).

Moreover, these huge changes are over now (by and large). You can't make sweeping claims about the future based on fundamental changes that have already happened. Additionally, you have to distinguish between long term decline caused by factors out of the control of the parties in question, and poor electoral performances caused by mistakes in government (particularly those of the type that alienate natural supporters. And it is undeniably true that social democratic governments have been 'good' at doing that lately), or lousy political strategies or whatever. Finally, the claim that there is 'no one left who could or should vote for a Social Democratic party' is beyond absurd. Take a proper look around you for God's sake.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 02, 2013, 07:53:11 pm
The problem with social democracy and its popular support, is that they now prefer the rich, the filthily wealthy corporate types, to the actual people. Not a good way to keep popular support.

One wonders what sort of people it is that Trotskyist sects prefer, or even if they are in any position to lecture others on keeping popular support.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on December 03, 2013, 06:11:11 am
The problem with social democracy and its popular support, is that they now prefer the rich, the filthily wealthy corporate types, to the actual people. Not a good way to keep popular support.

One wonders what sort of people it is that Trotskyist sects prefer, or even if they are in any position to lecture others on keeping popular support.
I am a part of the Left Front and I have nothing to be ashamed of in matters of popular support, thank you. ;)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on December 03, 2013, 10:06:53 am
The grand coalition wants to more strongly regulate prostitution.

http://www.dw.de/combating-prostitution/a-17265908 (http://www.dw.de/combating-prostitution/a-17265908)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franknburger on December 03, 2013, 12:05:37 pm
In don't think the SPD is doomed for extinction. It has a "natural" political base - non-academic professionals in the lower to middle income groups - and the potential to reach out into other voter segments (immigrants, single mothers, academics, etc.). Whether the natural base is to decline further in sociological relevance is also debatable. More likely, it will rather transform from "male blue collar" to "female white coat". But employment wise, at least the latter should rather grow, especially in health and care, alongside with demographical change.
 
As such, the SPD is no more doomed than the CDU, whose natural bases (catholics, rural population) are also declining. While it may be true that the SPD is having problems in small town Bavaria (and Saxony, possibly Baden-Würtemberg, etc.), it is still having considerable electoral appeal in small towns elsewhere, e.g. Lower Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein, NRW, Saarland. The CDU, OTOH, is almost dead in the inner cities (Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Frankfurt), areas that in future will gain further relevance in relation to the gradually de-populating countryside. The fight will be for the suburbs, strength or weakness there should be the benchmark to judge on a party's perspective.

I see the German political structure transforming from a FPTP (US/UK) model with two competing main parties to a Scandinavian pattern, with 5-7 relevant parties differentiated across the whole political spectrum. In such a spectrum, leadership means some 30%+ vote share, and a call on chancellorship in a 2-4 party coalition. Such a perspective is anything but out of reach for the SPD. With AfD, FDP, maybe FW possibly (re-)gaining strength, the CDU may find themselves in a similar position in 2017.

The grand coalition, and the membership vote, forces the SPD to recognise and discuss these trends. The "Gallic village"  approach as defender of progress against social conservatism and big business did not work electorally, now it has also out served for uniting the party itself. Review is overdue and should already have taken place 2005-2009.

In that context, I find your statements, ERvND, quite telling. Obviously, the SPD (membership) is still in the middle of the "acceptance" phase, and not yet at the point where programmatic implications are being discussed:
-  Popular mood against tax increases and "bigger government" ultimately killed the red-green perspective, even though other parts of the social agenda (child care, minimum wage) enjoyed majority support. Will the SPD need to review positions on taxation and government role (as the Greens are in the process of doing)?
- Continue the fight with the CDU on the pensioners' vote, or give it up and focus on younger generations instead?
- Maintain the mental focus on blue-collar "working class" males, or refocus on white-coat female (part-time) employment, and the real-existing poverty, namely single mothers?
- Large-scale infrastructure projects are neither popular nor have worked particularly well over the last years - so what?
- Pro-coal or pro-wind?
- Crime prevention/ fight against terrorism, or civil rights / privacy?

In any case, the current discussion within the SPD is overdue and positive, not only for the party, but for the electoral landscape as a whole. It will be interesting to see how far it goes, and what ultimately comes out of it.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on December 03, 2013, 04:37:49 pm
Don't forget "the crisis" as a key electoral issue. The federal election has been a plebiscite for Merkel's and Schäuble's solutions to the Euro crisis (which are totally wrong IMO, but I don't count). SPD and Greens were very weak on this issue.
You see that SPD and Greens did win in Lower Saxony and up to a certain degree also in Hesse, Bavaria was bad, but maybe only a return to the mean. SPD and Greens are structurally not in such a bad position.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on December 03, 2013, 06:05:05 pm
Two years or so ago I predicted that the SDP would, if not in the 2013 at least in the following election, be over-taken by the Greens as the major party of the left.

Al told me off with the same arguments he is using now. And guess what happened.

I was completly incorrect, and he was right. I would keep that in mind if I were arguing with him now. 


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on December 07, 2013, 07:18:38 am
The Union would be close to an absolute majority again according to Infratest dimap:

CDU/CSU: 43%
SPD: 25%
Grüne: 10%
Linke: 9%

AfD: 4%
FDP: 3%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on December 07, 2013, 07:25:47 am
Also 2 new state polls:

Berlin (Forsa):

CDU: 28%
SPD: 26%
Grüne: 17%
Linke: 15%

AfD: 4%
Piraten: 4%


Brandenburg (Infratest dimap):
SPD: 32%
CDU: 30% (keep in mind they were at 19% last election)
Linke: 22%
Grüne: 6%

AfD: 3%
FDP: 2%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 11, 2013, 02:58:56 am
The CDU has overtaken the SPD in NRW:

(Image Link)

CDU gains 12 points in the past year and a half ...

Approval ratings of politicians:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on December 13, 2013, 05:02:06 am
The result of the SPD members' poll will be announced today. Should they (as expected) vote in favor, Merkel will be elected to her 3rd term on Tuesday.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 13, 2013, 05:36:20 am
The result of the SPD members' poll will be announced today. Should they (as expected) vote in favor, Merkel will be elected to her 3rd term on Tuesday.

I'll predict:

63% Yes
37% No


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on December 13, 2013, 06:41:19 am
The result of the SPD members' poll will be announced today. Should they (as expected) vote in favor, Merkel will be elected to her 3rd term on Tuesday.

I'll predict:

63% Yes
37% No

I expect something extreme. Either 70-80% YES, or 49-52% YES... :)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 13, 2013, 06:43:17 am
The result of the SPD members' poll will be announced today. Should they (as expected) vote in favor, Merkel will be elected to her 3rd term on Tuesday.

I'll predict:

63% Yes
37% No

I expect something extreme. Either 70-80% YES, or 49-52% YES... :)

In the unlikely event that the SPD base says NO, would there be immediate new elections, or would they just try to form a new coalition instead ?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on December 13, 2013, 06:45:07 am
The result of the SPD members' poll will be announced today. Should they (as expected) vote in favor, Merkel will be elected to her 3rd term on Tuesday.

I'll predict:

63% Yes
37% No

I expect something extreme. Either 70-80% YES, or 49-52% YES... :)

In the unlikely event that the SPD base says NO, would there be immediate new elections, or would they just try to form a new coalition instead ?

Nobody knows. "Es gibt keinen Plan B" is what everyone is saying. I think CDU/CSU and Greens would at least have another talk with each other before going to new elections, though.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on December 13, 2013, 10:10:36 am
There is now way for new elections without doing the "Try-to-elect-a-chancellor"-Thing.

At first, the president has to present a candidate for the election and the first round of voting ist on this candidate only, which has to get an absolute majority of the Bundestag members. (There is a constitutional gap, so it is not stated, at which point of time the president has to propose somebody, so in theory he could just sit the four years out). The question is, if he would, after consultations with the parties, make a real attempt or if he just would sacrifice a pawn
If their is no majority, there is a second round (technically a two-week-phase of 2nd rounds), in which everybody can be proposed by everybody (or at least every parliamentary group), but still has to get an absolute majority of the Bundestag members.

When this phase is over and nobody got elected, there would be a third round "immidiately". If somebody get's the majority there, he or she is elected. If not, the ball is in the president's field again and he has to decide wheither to appoint the leading candidate or to dissolve the Bundestag and call for new federal elections.

The main question would be, if the CDU/CSU was to try a minorty-gouvernment for some time, and put up a vote-of-confidence at some time they wish or if they would go for new elections outright.

I guess we would finally see Merkel lose some elections, because the risk of putting up a sacrificial pawn would be he got elected by the left parties just to damage Merkel. SPD can't really put up a candidate for there is a tiny risk at getting elected and heaving to try to put some administration together or lose a vote of confidence quickly.

This would be some entertaining weeks in political Germany.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 13, 2013, 12:43:14 pm
It looks like the SPD membership vote will be announced tomorrow, not today.

They have to transport the 350.000 postal votes to a former train station in Berlin, in which they can count about 40.000 ballots per hour.

Results are then expected in the evening.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on December 13, 2013, 12:47:22 pm
It looks like the SPD membership vote will be announced tomorrow, not today.

They have to transport the 350.000 postal votes to a former train station in Berlin, in which they can count about 40.000 ballots per hour.

Results are then expected in the evening.

Yes. Don't know why I thought it was today.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 13, 2013, 12:51:22 pm
Also, the "Spiegel" reports that Sigmar Gabriel will become a Super-Minister for Economy and Energy.

Frank-Walter Steinmeier -> Foreign Minister

Heiko Maas -> Justice Minister

Andrea Nahles -> Labour & Social Minister

Manuela Schwesig -> Family Minister

Barbara Hendricks -> Environment Minister


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 13, 2013, 12:56:13 pm
Apparently, about 10% of the SPD postal ballots are invalid because mandatory signatures of those who voted are missing on the envelopes:

http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article122851861/Tausende-ungueltige-Stimmen-bei-SPD-Mitgliedervotum.html

That is kinda weird, because usually the invalid-vote even among absentee ballots is more like 1-3%.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 13, 2013, 01:29:44 pm
That kind of thing is very common in mass postal balloting (i.e. for party, union, or any constitutional society elections or for strike ballots and so on). Don't read too much into it.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on December 14, 2013, 09:01:59 am
Breaking: 75.9% have voted in favor.

Merkel will be elected on Tuesday as Chancellor of a grand coalition.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Grand coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD agreed to)
Post by: Mangez des pommes ! on December 14, 2013, 09:17:49 am
Let's hope the government lives up to expectations.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Grand coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD agreed to)
Post by: DC Al Fine on December 14, 2013, 09:22:15 am
Boo! I wanted endless elections.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Grand coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD agreed to)
Post by: You kip if you want to... on December 14, 2013, 09:58:06 am
Probably a tactical mistake by the SPD, but hey, they'll surely do better than the FPD.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Grand coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD agreed to)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on December 14, 2013, 10:03:58 am
What!? von der Leyen to defense? Roflmao.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Grand coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD agreed to)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on December 14, 2013, 03:44:52 pm
What!? von der Leyen to defense? Roflmao.

Merkel probably tries to set von der Leyen up as her hand-picked successor. After one term as family minister, one term as labour minister and one term as defence minister she will certainly have gotten around.

And it seems we're gonna be stuck with Schäuble forever.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Grand coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD agreed to)
Post by: Franknburger on December 14, 2013, 03:47:46 pm
There are actually quite a number of surprises in the ministerial portfolios. Here the break-up by parties:

Chancellor - Angela Merkel
Chief of Staff -  Peter Altmaier (ex Minister of Environment)
State Minister for Migration & Integration - Aydan Özoguz

Foreign Affairs - Frank-Walter Steinmeier
Defense - Ursula von der Leyen (ex Min. of Labour)
Economic Cooperation - Hans-Peter Friedrich?

Finance - Wolfgang Schäuble
Economy (+Energy / - Communication) - Sigmar Gabriel
Trensport (+Communication / - Construction) - Alexander Dobrindt
Environment (+Construction/ - Energy) - Barbara Hendricks

Agriculture (-Consumer Protection) - ??

Interior - Lothar de Maiziere (ex Min. of Defense)
Justice (+Consumer Protection) - Heiko Maas

Labour - Andrea Nahles
Family - Manueala Schwesig
Health - Hermann Gröhe (ex CDU Secretary General)
Education & Research - Johanna Wanka?

Former Chief of Staff Ronald Pofalla will leave the Cabinet for undisclosed personal reasons. Former Minister of Transport Peter Ramsauer (CSU) is rumoured to leave as well, otherwise he may take over one of the yet unassigned CSU posts.

Overall quite a success for the SPD:
- 6 out of 15 Ministers
- Represented in the Chancellery through State Minister for Migration & Integration
- Extended their portfolio at the expense of the CSU (especially transfer of consumer protection from Agriculture to Justice)

CDU also gets 6 ministers, plus the chancellor. Big loser is the CSU - down from 4 to 3 ministries, losing the prestigious Ministry of Interior, and responsibility for consumer protection. Their only consolation is to have gained responsibility for communication, so they may take up again the traditional practice of channelling contracts to Siemens, Bavaria's largest employer (argh!).

von der Leyen as Minister of Defence looks like she is being built up as Merkels' successor to take over in 2016. By that time, Wolfgang Schäuble will turn 74, and probably also leave the Cabinet. The SPD is bringing her next generation (Schwesig, Maas, Özoguz) in position, not so the CDU. The CSU is still a wildcard - let's see whether they manage to put at least one woman up for their three minister posts.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Grand coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD agreed to)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on December 14, 2013, 03:51:16 pm
Big loser is the CSU - down from 4 to 3 ministries, losing the prestigious Ministry of Interior, and responsibility for consumer protection.

CSU had three ministries before the election too.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Grand coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD agreed to)
Post by: njwes on December 16, 2013, 08:10:58 pm
I have to say, Ursula von der Leyen really fascinates me. A German Lutheran Ph.D involved in politics with 7 kids… that must be the German equivalent of Sasquatch, right?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Grand coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD agreed to)
Post by: Franknburger on December 17, 2013, 02:14:29 am
I have to say, Ursula von der Leyen really fascinates me. A German Lutheran Ph.D involved in politics with 7 kids… that must be the German equivalent of Sasquatch, right?
Don't forget her family background (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernst_Albrecht_(politician)). Instead of Sasquatch, you better put her in a line with Benazhir Bhutto (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benazir_Bhutto), Megawati Sukarnoputri (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megawati), or Indira Ghandi (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indira_Ghandi). Or, if that seems culturally more adequate, compare her to Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, and check out CSU politician Monika Hohlmeier (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monika_Hohlmeier).

Without questioning Ursula von der Leyen's political and intellectual class, I have some doubt whether she would have made it that far without her father's reputation and networks.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Grand coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD agreed to)
Post by: Franzl on December 17, 2013, 04:40:49 am
462-150

Angela Merkel has been elected Chancellor, with 42 fewer votes than seats belonging to CDU/CSU and SPD.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Angela Merkel elected Chancellor)
Post by: Franzl on December 17, 2013, 08:06:24 am
The Chancellor and all ministers have been sworn in.

All of them, both CDU/CSU and SPD, added "so wahr mir Gott helfe" to their oath of office.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Angela Merkel elected Chancellor)
Post by: Mangez des pommes ! on December 17, 2013, 08:09:22 am
All of them, both CDU/CSU and SPD, added "so wahr mir Gott helfe" to their oath of office.

Ugh...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Angela Merkel elected Chancellor)
Post by: Hifly on December 17, 2013, 02:58:14 pm
All of them, both CDU/CSU and SPD, added "so wahr mir Gott helfe" to their oath of office.

Ugh...

I'm glad to say that you don't have German citizenship so this really shouldn't be an issue for you.
I also didn't know that your respect for freedom of religion was at such negligible levels.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Angela Merkel elected Chancellor)
Post by: Niemeyerite on December 17, 2013, 04:30:17 pm
All of them, both CDU/CSU and SPD, added "so wahr mir Gott helfe" to their oath of office.

Ugh...

I'm glad to say that you don't have German citizenship so this really shouldn't be an issue for you.
I also didn't know that your respect for freedom of religion was at such negligible levels.

Troll.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Lief 🐋 on December 17, 2013, 04:55:58 pm
Freedom of religion does not mean freedom from criticism.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Angela Merkel elected Chancellor)
Post by: Franzl on December 17, 2013, 06:18:33 pm
All of them, both CDU/CSU and SPD, added "so wahr mir Gott helfe" to their oath of office.

Ugh...

I'm glad to say that you don't have German citizenship so this really shouldn't be an issue for you.
I also didn't know that your respect for freedom of religion was at such negligible levels.

I'm rather ashamed that you have German citizenship.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on December 17, 2013, 07:31:47 pm
Maybe it tells us something about the self-confidence of the SPD ministers, that they rely on god to help them. *g* (ok, for an American conservative this would a quite common thought, but for a German center-left party?)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 17, 2013, 07:45:22 pm
It's hard to think of a less relevant issue.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Mangez des pommes ! on December 18, 2013, 07:30:11 am
It's hard to think of a less relevant issue.

Symbols matter. Sure, they don't matter as much as facts, but they're important in that they both illustrate and reinforce mainstream social attitudes toward something (cultural hegemony, etc.).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 18, 2013, 11:54:14 am
Presumably you'd also rather they turned up for the oaths in donkey jackets?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Mangez des pommes ! on December 18, 2013, 01:03:40 pm
Presumably you'd also rather they turned up for the oaths in donkey jackets?

That would certainly be beautiful to see, yes, but let's stay realistic. :P


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Hifly on December 18, 2013, 01:46:15 pm
Presumably you'd also rather they turned up for the oaths in donkey jackets?

That would certainly be beautiful to see, yes, but let's stay realistic. :P

This wouldn't happen because they have class.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on December 18, 2013, 01:48:52 pm
They should of course have been wearing sneakers and jeans.

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Velasco on December 18, 2013, 01:54:35 pm
How classy! I'm truly impressed :D


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Franzl on December 20, 2013, 03:10:47 am
Slight bounce for the SPD in the first Infratest dimap poll since the new government took over.

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 9%
Linke: 8%

AfD: 4%
FDP: 4%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Peter the Lefty on December 20, 2013, 05:35:55 pm
Slight bounce for the SPD in the first Infratest dimap poll since the new government took over.

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 9%
Linke: 8%

AfD: 4%
FDP: 4%
They should enjoy it while they can.  Hopefully, they'll drop to all-time lows very soon.  The SPD is dead for all true intents and purposes.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on December 21, 2013, 12:28:44 pm
Slight bounce for the SPD in the first Infratest dimap poll since the new government took over.

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 9%
Linke: 8%

AfD: 4%
FDP: 4%

Not suprising, considering that the end result of the coalition talks was apparently classified as a victory for the SPD and a personal triumph for Sigmar Gabriel (who has finally overcome his image as a leightweight - pun intended :P ) by most media commentators.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Oak Hills on December 22, 2013, 01:00:04 pm
Slight bounce for the SPD in the first Infratest dimap poll since the new government took over.

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 9%
Linke: 8%

AfD: 4%
FDP: 4%
They should enjoy it while they can.  Hopefully, they'll drop to all-time lows very soon.  The SPD is dead for all true intents and purposes.

Why are people here so negative on the SPD?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Franzl on December 22, 2013, 01:57:27 pm
Slight bounce for the SPD in the first Infratest dimap poll since the new government took over.

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 9%
Linke: 8%

AfD: 4%
FDP: 4%
They should enjoy it while they can.  Hopefully, they'll drop to all-time lows very soon.  The SPD is dead for all true intents and purposes.

Why are people here so negative on the SPD?

Well, from a left-wing perspective, they've done some relatively awful things.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Vosem on December 22, 2013, 02:56:45 pm
Slight bounce for the SPD in the first Infratest dimap poll since the new government took over.

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 9%
Linke: 8%

AfD: 4%
FDP: 4%
They should enjoy it while they can.  Hopefully, they'll drop to all-time lows very soon.  The SPD is dead for all true intents and purposes.

Why are people here so negative on the SPD?

They're to the right of most European mainstream-left parties (emphasis on the word 'European', of course), and there's a perception (that reminds me of similarly absurd ideas about the GOP, actually) that they're going to die out and be overtaken by the Greens.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: politicus on December 22, 2013, 03:30:59 pm
Slight bounce for the SPD in the first Infratest dimap poll since the new government took over.

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 9%
Linke: 8%

AfD: 4%
FDP: 4%
They should enjoy it while they can.  Hopefully, they'll drop to all-time lows very soon.  The SPD is dead for all true intents and purposes.

Why are people here so negative on the SPD?

They're to the right of most European mainstream-left parties (emphasis on the word 'European', of course), and there's a perception (that reminds me of similarly absurd ideas about the GOP, actually) that they're going to die out and be overtaken by the Greens.

The Greens are too middle class (among other things) to replace SPD as [i the[/i] major centre-left party. But SPD might very well be weakened to a degree where the German party system lose its character of being a "two party system plus change" and becomes a "one party plus token opposition"-system with CDU as an even more dominant "natural party of government". Sort of a German version of the LDP in Japan.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: You kip if you want to... on December 22, 2013, 03:32:39 pm
Slight bounce for the SPD in the first Infratest dimap poll since the new government took over.

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 9%
Linke: 8%

AfD: 4%
FDP: 4%
They should enjoy it while they can.  Hopefully, they'll drop to all-time lows very soon.  The SPD is dead for all true intents and purposes.

Why are people here so negative on the SPD?

They're to the right of most European mainstream-left parties (emphasis on the word 'European', of course), and there's a perception (that reminds me of similarly absurd ideas about the GOP, actually) that they're going to die out and be overtaken by the Greens.

The SPD are truly in a crap position, but this always gets said about the mainstream left in Europe. See: 1980s/early 90s UK Labour, the PS throughout its existence.

Merkel's popular and the SPD isn't. Simple as that really. When they can reverse that, they'll be able to lead a government again.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 22, 2013, 07:29:35 pm
Why are people here so negative on the SPD?

At a guess the issue is that while all traditional socialist parties have a marked tendency towards the bureaucratic, the SPD has even more of a 'men in grey suits' feel to it than most. Particularly when it lacks a halfway charismatic leadership, which is the case currently.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 22, 2013, 07:34:24 pm
They're to the right of most European mainstream-left parties

I don't think that's actually true. What they are is (currently) duller and (always) more overtly in favour of order and stability than most of their actual and also official sister parties.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: politicus on December 22, 2013, 08:05:06 pm
They're to the right of most European mainstream-left parties

I don't think that's actually true.

Well, its hard to measure those things, but what major European mainstream-left (=main centre-left) parties do you consider to be a) to the right of the SPD b) equally right winged?

I would consider SPD to be clearly to the right of PS, PSOE and all the Scandinavian SDs and slightly to the right of Labour.

Irish Labour is to their right, but who else?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on December 23, 2013, 05:24:58 am
I think a lot of people are categorizing the SPD as being more "right-wing" because of Gerhard Schröder's Agenda 2010 (which happened ten years ago) and because it seems to favour coalitions with CDU/CSU over coalitions with the Left Party (which primarily has something to do with being afraid of doing something risky/unconventional/unpopular and the potential fallout from it).

Most German voters generally seem to long for a stable and consensus-oriented government. Opinion polls also show that Angela Merkel is overwhelmingly popular and that a Grand coalition is preferred over pretty much any other potential coalition (especially a Red-Red-Green one). Hell, even many SPD voters prefer Angela Merkel over Peer Steinbrück or Sigmar Gabriel as Chancellor. Entering a Grand coalition is always the safe choice and the current SPD leadership likes to play it safe. It doesn't necessarily mean that they "like" the CDU more than they like the Left Party.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on December 23, 2013, 07:27:48 am
They're to the right of most European mainstream-left parties

I don't think that's actually true.

Well, its hard to measure those things, but what major European mainstream-left (=main centre-left) parties do you consider to be a) to the right of the SPD b) equally right winged?

I would consider SPD to be clearly to the right of PS, PSOE and all the Scandinavian SDs and slightly to the right of Labour.

Irish Labour is to their right, but who else?
PASOK! :D


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: freefair on December 23, 2013, 07:47:34 am
Dutch Labour. They're basically left-liberals and they just love coalitions with VVD, D66 and CDA.
Also, I perceive the Nordic SDs as being far to the economic right of UK Labour in historical policy terms, if more socialistic in theory.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Cassius on December 23, 2013, 07:58:12 am
Haven't PASOK basically given up the pretence of being a serious contender (unlike the SPD) and now just exist because they exist.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 23, 2013, 11:31:16 am
Well, its hard to measure those things, but what major European mainstream-left (=main centre-left) parties do you consider to be a) to the right of the SPD b) equally right winged?

I would consider SPD to be clearly to the right of PS, PSOE and all the Scandinavian SDs and slightly to the right of Labour.

Irish Labour is to their right, but who else?

Irish 'Labour' have eliminated their right to be considered as part of the question, at least for the moment. Actually they may well soon join the exalted ranks of ironically named political parties.

Anyway, the PS is excellent when it comes to fiery rhetoric, but this rhetoric tends not to match up to reality. The Flanby government's idea of a radical economic programme is a handful of populist policies (that don't seem to have been particularly popular) and literally nothing else. French politics does tend to exist in its own bizarre universe, of course, and it is one in which up can indeed sometimes be down, but I dispute the idea that the PS is a notably left-wing party of the Left even if it likes to pretend to be one. The PSOE is really only radical on issues relating directly to the legacy of the Civil War and to culture war clashes with the PP; they're well to the right of the SPD in practice.

British Labour is weird in that it has always included a much wider range of opinions than the norm; basically I'd argue that the way things currently appear is really more a case of observing that the Left of the SPD is kind of semi-marginalised at present, whereas in Britain most Left factions back the current leadership. Things have been different in the past and presumably will be in the future.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 24, 2013, 02:39:38 am
The date for the Sachsen (Saxony) state election has been set by the state government:

August 31, 2014

Quote
Sachsen wird am 31. August wählen

In Sachsen wird am 31. August 2014 ein neuer Landtag gewählt. Das Landtagspräsidium stimmte dem vom CDU/FDP-Kabinett vorgeschlagenen Termin mehrheitlich zu. Landtagsprecher Ivo Klatte sagte, es habe eine intensive Debatte gegeben. Das Wahldatum sei schließlich mit den Stimmen der Koalitionsfraktionen im Präsidium beschlossen worden.

Damit sind die Sachsen am letzten Tag der Sommerferien aufgerufen, über die Zusammensetzung des Parlamentes für die nächsten fünf Jahre zu entscheiden. Er ist zugleich der letztmögliche Termin für den Urnengang überhaupt.

http://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/wahltermin102_zc-e9a9d57e_zs-6c4417e7.html


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on December 26, 2013, 03:08:33 pm
The CDU/FDP-administration in Saxony is obviously hoping für "asymmetric demobilization" in putting the election date into the school and university summer vacations. They have gerrymandered the electoral districts in their favor, too (This matters in Saxony, because not all overhang seats are compensated). Third, they still use D'Hondt (Jefferson's method) for seat allocation. So the CDU will have a structural advantage of a few seats.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: politicus on December 26, 2013, 04:29:40 pm
Dutch Labour. They're basically left-liberals and they just love coalitions with VVD, D66 and CDA.
Also, I perceive the Nordic SDs as being far to the economic right of UK Labour in historical policy terms, if more socialistic in theory.

Not talking about history here. But if we where: Nordic SDs have hardly been more Socialist in theory than British Labour were pre-New Labour.

Yeah, Dutch Labour is at least as right wing as SPD.

Still I cant see that the claim that SPD is to the right of most European main centre-left parties isn't true.


Basically I'd argue that the way things currently appear is really more a case of observing that the Left of the SPD is kind of semi-marginalised at present, whereas in Britain most Left factions back the current leadership. Things have been different in the past and presumably will be in the future.

That's a good point, but I think semi-marginalization is putting it mildly...

It is difficult to place parties in different countries on a left-right scale using objective criteria, so I wont pursue this any further. Plus it could easily derail the thread.

Still, if anybody would like to answer my original question: What major European mainstream-left (=main centre-left) parties do you consider to be a) to the right of the SPD b) equally right winged? in a more systematic manner in a different thread (or a PM), that would be interesting.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: palandio on December 26, 2013, 06:08:51 pm
... They have gerrymandered the electoral districts in their favor, too...
Is this true for Saxony? I took at look at Leipzig and Chemnitz and what I saw was the following:
* Two electoral districts in the whole of Saxony were won by the Left party, one in Western Leipzig, one in Southern Chemnitz. Both are composed mainly by Plattenbau housing estates, in both the size of the voting population is below average due to population losses in the last 23 years. In both the CDU got the most proportional votes. All in all this is hardly an example for packing.
* I don't see examples of cracking. Western Leipzig and Southern Chemnitz are as dark-red as you can get in Saxony and even they are toss-ups. And SPD and Greens are just too week to play a role other than taking away FPTP votes from CDU and Left Party.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 27, 2013, 02:34:16 pm
Not talking about history here. But if we where: Nordic SDs have hardly been more Socialist in theory than British Labour were pre-New Labour.

Of course if we're talking about in theory, then British Labour was never an official Marxist party (unlike most of its continental cousins).

Though it abandoned Utopia much later than basically everyone else (the SPD being basically first on that score). Have the SPÖ actually done that yet, anyone?

Quote
That's a good point, but I think semi-marginalization is putting it mildly...

Well, they're less marginalised than the Labour Left was in the mid 1950s ;D


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 28, 2013, 09:27:10 am
The Grand Coalition is now talking about extending the legislative term from 4 years to 5 years:

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/union-und-spd-offen-fuer-verlaengerung-der-wahlperiode-a-941057.html

The same was done here in 2007.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Franknburger on December 28, 2013, 11:32:11 am
The honeymoon seems to be over:

In an unusual coalition, Greens and the ADAC (German motorist association, more than 18 million members) have simultaneously criticised the envisaged introduction of a motorway toll (rumoured to range around 100€/year): "Bureaucratic nightmare that is only creating jobs for public officials but hardly yields additional funds for road infrastructure"; "Flat-rate for long-distance drivers, encouraging fuel wastage". A (temporary) rise in fuel taxes would, at substantially lower administrative cost, be more socially just, environment-friendly, and also have foreign users participating in the cost of the German motorway system.

The CSU was quick to reply that they stick to the plan, noting that introducing a road toll by 2016 at latest has been put down firmly in the coalition agreement. SPD: "Yes, but under the condition that the toll corresponds to EU regulation, and no domestic car owner is paying more than he has to do now.." That will be difficult to achieve, since vehicle tax on small cars is well below 100€/ year, and any other form of direct compensation to German car owners is likely to be challenged by the EU. Angela Merkel has remained silent so far. Well, she is on holidays - but she also knows that pensioners,  her most loyal base, would be over proportion hit by a motorway toll.

This will be fun to watch over the next months...

Coming up next:
-Opening of the Berlin-Brandenburg airport postponed to at least 2015, further significant cost increase (says a usually well-informed friend of mine who is civil engineering consultant in Berlin) ->Federal transport budget in need of review...
- Deutsche Bahn suffers heavy losses due to increased competition by long-distance buses (which the Grand Coalition did not want to subject to the motorway toll that is already levied on trucks) ->Federal transport budget in need of review...
- After 40 years of use, crucial parts of the German motorway system require fundamental renovation [last summer, severe structural damage of the A7 bridge over the Kiel Canal, built 1972, was discovered, leading to temporary closure of the bridge to heavy traffic. Just when emergency repairs of that bridge were finished a few weeks ago, structural damage of three smaller bridges on the A1 north of Lübeck (built in the early 1970s) has been revealed, leading to restrictions on heavy traffic.] 3.100 km of motorway have been built in the 1970s in West Germany, plus several hundred km in East Germany (partly, e.g. Berlin-Rostock, not yet renewed). That is more than a third of the main grid - later additions were mostly secondary or feeder lines. it is estimated that 15% of German motorway bridges are in dire need of renewal ->Federal transport budget in need of review (financing gap estimated at 6bn Euros). 


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Mangez des pommes ! on December 28, 2013, 12:28:38 pm
The Grand Coalition is now talking about extending the legislative term from 4 years to 5 years

Horrible idea. From my French experience, I can testify that 5 year terms are waaaay too long.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: You kip if you want to... on December 28, 2013, 02:16:30 pm
The Grand Coalition is now talking about extending the legislative term from 4 years to 5 years

Horrible idea. From my French experience, I can testify that 5 year terms are waaaay too long.

They really are. Four's about right, I'd say.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Franzl on December 28, 2013, 02:31:15 pm
I'm sure they'll pass the 5-year terms...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Tayya on December 28, 2013, 03:30:05 pm
Experience tells me that any institutional/meta reform supported by the two main parties is to be avoided like the plague. This is no exception. I'm sorry for your loss, Germany.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Franzl on December 28, 2013, 04:21:36 pm
Experience tells me that any institutional/meta reform supported by the two main parties is to be avoided like the plague. This is no exception. I'm sorry for your loss, Germany.

Very very true.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on December 29, 2013, 08:02:44 am
I would say, from looking at the world, that the US House's two years are too short and anything longer is too long. :P


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 29, 2013, 09:28:51 am
I would say, from looking at the world, that the US House's two years are too short and anything longer is too long. :P

So, you favour the Australian or NZ way (3 years) ?

;)

I generally have nothing against 4, 5 or even 6 year terms because stuff gets done and the government or the country itself is likely a bit more stable than if there were changes every 2-3 years.

On ther other hand, elections every 2 years like in the US are good for us, who like to follow them and like to make maps - but rather bad for the country because of the constant campaigning which leads to standstill ...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Franzl on December 29, 2013, 09:31:48 am
The US is a special case with the way campaigns are. In most places, having an election every 3 years wouldn't really be that much trouble. I'd certainly rather go in that direction than further up...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 29, 2013, 09:35:10 am
The US is a special case with the way campaigns are. In most places, having an election every 3 years wouldn't really be that much trouble. I'd certainly rather go in that direction than further up...

Yeah, but we can also see it as a cost-cutting measure: Holding an election every 5-6 years instead of 3-4 saves you worth a total election after a few years. And that's not a few cents ...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 29, 2013, 09:41:56 am
Coming up next:

-Opening of the Berlin-Brandenburg airport postponed to at least 2015, further significant cost increase (says a usually well-informed friend of mine who is civil engineering consultant in Berlin)

Woah, that is one big mess ... :P

Will it likely impact the state election as well, or is it more about Berlin rather than BB ?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on December 29, 2013, 09:44:40 am
I would say, from looking at the world, that the US House's two years are too short and anything longer is too long. :P

So, you favour the Australian or NZ way (3 years) ?

;)
That's the least bad option available in practice, but I meant the post exactly as I wrote it - three years already is too long.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Beezer on December 29, 2013, 09:59:53 am
There are so many reasons that present a far bigger roadblock to getting sh**t done than the length of the legislative term (for starters the role of the Bundesrat, whose powers should be severely curtailed while introducing real federalism to Germany). And the costs of holding an election are minute compared to the other crap we spend money on. So no, I'd rather keep the 4 year term or even decrease it to 3 (while having 5 year terms in state elections) which might make it more likely that a government has a majority in the Bundesrat as well (after each federal election, the governing coalitions tends to do poorly in the states...maybe a 3 year term would then ensure that the unpopular coalition is ousted with the new government enjoying a governing majority in the upper chamber as well...not sure if I've thought all of this through properly).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Mangez des pommes ! on December 29, 2013, 10:05:09 am
Yeah, 3 years is the right term length. It's such a shame Sweden got rid of 3-year terms in the 90s. :(


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: on December 29, 2013, 10:16:41 am
The Grand Coalition is now talking about extending the legislative term from 4 years to 5 years

Horrible idea. From my French experience, I can testify that 5 year terms are waaaay too long.

At least the French can elect their President and the National Assembly both separately and directly.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: fondue_knight on December 29, 2013, 06:47:12 pm
The French senate is not directly elected.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: on December 29, 2013, 06:49:24 pm
The French senate is not directly elected.

I see. Sorry!


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: on December 31, 2013, 03:29:12 pm
As a side note: Today Barbara Hendricks came out of the closet in a regional daily newspaper.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Peter the Lefty on December 31, 2013, 07:45:33 pm
Coming up next:

-Opening of the Berlin-Brandenburg airport postponed to at least 2015, further significant cost increase (says a usually well-informed friend of mine who is civil engineering consultant in Berlin)

Woah, that is one big mess ... :P

Will it likely impact the state election as well, or is it more about Berlin rather than BB ?
It was Wowereit's pet project, I'm pretty sure.  Frankly, it does seem time for him to go.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on January 01, 2014, 09:41:41 am
God, no. Wowereit inherited that mess (and failed entirely to solve it, partly because it would have required cutting prestige losses long before the planning disaster was apparent to laymen, something politicians are of course notoriously wroth to do.) The actual culprits are, in ascending order, Manfred Stolpe, Eberhard Diepgen, and Helmut Kohl.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Franknburger on January 01, 2014, 05:11:20 pm
God, no. Wowereit inherited that mess (and failed entirely to solve it, partly because it would have required cutting prestige losses long before the planning disaster was apparent to laymen, something politicians are of course notoriously wroth to do.) The actual culprits are, in ascending order, Manfred Stolpe, Eberhard Diepgen, and Helmut Kohl.

Well, that is a bit oversimplified, Let me summarise the main things that went wrong, as I have been told by my usually well-informed friend in Berlin. There are a number of points that aren't clear to me, I am also not able to put a name and date on every issue, but I hope nevertheless I can make the situation a bit clearer:

1. The original feasibility study for the airport came out with a construction cost estimate of some 1.3 billion Euros. For some reason and in some mysterious way, the cost estimate that was presented to the public was only 800 million Euros. When construction was tendered - surprise, surprise - offers ranged around 1.3 billion. The tender was cancelled, with suspected price-gouging given as official reason. Instead, the construction was split-up into individual lots that were tendered separately, with the airport company assuming the coordination role. When tendering was finished, no information on the total costs of all these lots was made available to the parliaments concerned, but according to my friend, splitting up the project into several lots did as well result in a contract total of around 1.3 billion.

2. It is usual for such projects that some details are changed during implementation. Any such changes are cost drivers, as the contractors can freely put forward extra expenditure, without being bound to original tender bids (it is quite common to go into tenders at cost price, in the hope of drawing profits from subsequent changes). In the case of the Berlin-Brandenburg airport, however, we are talking about more than just details. In order to increase revenue-generating retail space, the complete layout of the public areas was remodelled, and the building size increased from 200,000 to 340,000 m². No idea how much that increased the total cost - it seems negotiations among all parties are still on-going - but the re-modelling should have had quite an impact.

3. There had been substantial protest from people residing in the envisaged airplane approach paths, which was partly downplayed, partly encountered by the Brandenburg government publicly out ruling certain approach paths. For "technical reasons", some of these out-ruled paths lived up again in the spatial planning process ("Raumordnungsverfahren") for the airport. The thing went to court, over several instances, and the final, unchallengeable verdict obliged the Airport to ensure that certain maximum noise levels inside residential buildings are not exceeded. By the time of the verdict, construction was too far advanced to leave the airport with any other possibility than equipping all houses in question with 3-4 layer noise-insulating windows. This - as my friend calls it - largest job creation programme Berlin's and Brandenburg's construction business has ever seen will alone account for some 2 billion Euros extra cost.

4. As if that hadn't been enough, parts of the fire protection system - to be installed by five different contractors - had no accreditation with German authorities. That is more than a mere technicality - any such accreditation also includes binding specifications for equipment installation. In the absence of such specifications, it is 99,9% certain that, even if the equipment should retroactively get accredited, it will not be possible to document that it has been installed according to specification. In other words - the system may need to be completely removed and replaced by an accredited one that is installed in line with specifications. We are talking sensors, alarm signals, water pipes and sprayers, automatic doors, ventilation, etc. here - essentially, you may have to tear down and rebuild the whole terminal building, except for the outer walls.

5. When the problems with the fire protection system became obvious in late 2011 / early 2012, the coordinating engineering team, lead by Hamburg-based architects gmp (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerkan,_Marg_and_Partners), was fired. Legal dispute is on-going - gmp blames the problems on re-modelling on behalf of the airport company, and frequent political interference [As the case is pending in court, public access to information is restricted]. Whoever is to blame for what - the whole technical team had to be replaced, and the new team had to get acquainted with the situation and available documentation. This alone meant some 6-9 months interruption. Each moth delay costs at least 30 million Euros (interest, security, etc.),  some sources speak of as much as 40 millions, if possible compensation to airlines and Deutsche Bahn is included. You can do the math yourself...

6. In order to get the technical problems under control, the airport company in Summer 2012 recruited Horst Amann, previously chief planner at Frankfurt airport, as new Technical Director. Amman's approach was to systematically collect and inventorise all shortcomings, and then step by step work on overcoming them. On pressure by Federal Minister of Transport Peter Ramsauer, in December 2012, the airport's CEO, Rainer Schwarz (previously CEO at Düsseldorf airport), was replaced by Hartmut Mehdorn (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hartmut_Mehdorn). Mehdorn, born in 1942, is former CEO of Deutsche Bahn and of Air Berlin, which is a bit delicate, as both companies claim compensation from the airport company (Air Berlin has already filed a court claim, when Mehdorn was still their CEO). He is known for his hands-on, pushy and often confrontational management style.
Unsurprisingly, the chemistry within the new management team wasn't optimal (to put it mildly). Mehdorn, trying to speed up things, proposed to experimentally already open one wing of the airport to the public, while Amann wasn't prepared to risk his head for partly opening an airport that does not have an approved fire protection system, and as such would be illegal to operate. Following mutual complaints against each other towards board members and in the press, the board in October 2013 finally decided to discard the position of the Airport's Technical Director, but keep Amann as CEO of a subsidiary in charge of the airport's utility systems (said subsidiary, however, so far has no other staff than its CEO). [In other words - everybody waited for Ramsauer to be removed as Federal Minister of Transport after the election, in order to be able to also get rid of Mehdorn, and get the one and only person in the team who ever has built an airport to the position where he belongs.] Achievements in 2013: 60,000 shortcomings have been documented, but hardly any action has been taken on them yet. And the taxameter is running...

7.  Did I say "hardly any action"? Unfortunately, that is not fully correct. It is not yet clear which parts (if any) of the fire security system can be maintained, and how much time and money will be needed to get the airport to German and EU fire security standards, Nevertheless, Mr. Mehdorn, in order to speed up things, has already given out the contract for a new fire security system to Siemens. Apparently free-handed, without international tender as is mandated under EU common market regulation. [Just in case you didn't know - his buddy, former Minister of Transport Peter Ramsauer, is from the Bavarian CSU. And Bavaria's largest employer is, of course, Siemens].

Oh yeah, and then there is the Investigative Committee of the Berlin House of Deputies, lead by the speaker of the Pirate faction - a guy in the late twenties, obviously quite intelligent and committed, but also pretty inexperienced. From my memory, here an extract of a TV interview with him some months ago:
"The fundamental problem is the legal construction of the airport company. It is at the same time in charge of running the existing Tegel and Schönefeld airports, and building the new airport. That legal construction has obviously been selected to make it more difficult to trace money flows."
Q: "But haven't you been warned in advance to not get too much into the project's history, thereby getting lost in irrelevant details, instead of looking at current processes, mistakes, and possibilities for damage control?"
A: "Well, I think it is important to study the development of the airport project from its initiation .."
That poor kid had obviously no idea of what he was dealing with!


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Gustaf on January 02, 2014, 06:43:57 am
Yeah, 3 years is the right term length. It's such a shame Sweden got rid of 3-year terms in the 90s. :(

Hm, I'm not convinced. I think 3 years gives too little time from when you've settled in and can start implementing reforms until it's time for an election campaign again.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 06, 2014, 06:09:28 am
German Chancellor Angela Merkel injured in skiing accident

Merkel's spokesman Steffen Seibert said on Monday that the Chancellor fell while cross-country skiing in Switzerland.

As a result, some meetings have been cancelled - including the planned visit to Poland on Wednesday and a reception for the prime minister of Luxembourg on Thursday in Berlin.

More to come ...

http://www.dw.de/german-chancellor-angela-merkel-injured-in-skiing-accident/a-17343329


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 06, 2014, 06:17:20 am
3 new state election polls (all of those states will have state elections this year):

Brandenburg/Forsa

34% SPD
25% Left
23% CDU
  5% Greens
  4% FDP
  4% AfD
  5% Others

Sachsen/uniQma

49% CDU
17% SPD
15% Left
  6% Greens
  6% AfD
  2% FDP
  2% Pirates
  1% NPD
  2% Others

Thüringen/INSA

35% CDU
27% Left
18% SPD
  7% Greens
  5% AfD
  2% FDP
  6% Others


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 06, 2014, 06:19:06 am
The Brandenburg poll is good news for the SPD, if true.

Other recent polls have shown the CDU gaining and moving into a tie with the SPD here.

Also, the CDU reaches a 10-year high in Saxony - but I have never heard of that pollster before.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on January 06, 2014, 08:32:39 am
In Thüringen, CDU was above 40% and SPD and Linke were neck and neck a few months ago.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on January 06, 2014, 11:35:38 am
Quote
Also, the CDU reaches a 10-year high in Saxony - but I have never heard of that pollster before.
Nobody has heard of that pollster before. According to their website - if you substract all this promotion bubbles - it seems to be a relatively new (2013) small polling firm based in Leipzig. And political polling seems to be not their main scope, instead of marketing and polling about the media system. They have no experience in this niche. So I would take this result with several grains of salt


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: ERvND on January 06, 2014, 06:07:53 pm
Sachsen/uniQma

49% CDU
17% SPD
15% Left
  6% Greens
  6% AfD
  2% FDP
  2% Pirates
  1% NPD
  2% Others

The pollster aside, this poll is not entirely implausible. There are some oddities, however.

CDU at 49% is absolutely believable, if the FDP collapse comes true.

SPD at 17% would be a shocking result. I found this to be absolutely incredible, but it's backed up by some older polls that had them at 15-16%. This would equal a vote increase of ca. 50%. It becomes more plausible when you look at the Linke prediction of 15%, however.

Greens and AfD at 6% are reasonable. If it excels at the Europe elections in May, the AfD might get even stronger.

Of course they have to get their votes from somewhere, and if we follow this scenario, it's the FDP. Still, the FDP at only 2% is not realistic. Firstly, Saxony is a traditional FDP stronghold, secondly, Grand coalition politics will have an impact until August, resulting in middle-class voters reverting from the CDU.

Also, NPD at 1% is too optimistic by far. They will have a hard time entering the Landtag this year, but I can hardly imagine them below 3%.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on January 06, 2014, 06:33:24 pm
Of course, this would not be implausible, as you mentioned. On the other hand there is a history of SPD strongly overperforming in Saxon polls in comparison to actual election results - with a corresponding PDS/Left-underperformance.
There are some other factors that might benefit the SPD:

1. The Left state party does ocurr as a horrible bunch of old school GDR technocrats with no vision. 2. If there is no power option emerging besides the CDU a CDU/SPD might be seen as a lesser evil by many left wing voters. In 2004-2009 the SPD was quite successful in preventing the implementation of typical Saxonian CDU BS policies. The Greens are not that inspiring, either.
3. There has been a large inmigration of young adults from throughout Germany into the three big cities Dresden, Leipzig and Chemnitz in the last ten years. In the last years the numbers of western transplants rose. Those are subgroups of the population who are seen as more willing to vote SPD (and Greens) over Linke. In addition, in these three cities and SPD ground organization exists which can not really be said for all parts of the countryside. So the reurbanization processes should be good for the SPD to some extent.
4. In 2009 the SPD had slight gains in many regions, but heavy losses in Leipzig, for which Leipzig's SPD mayor Burkhard Jung and his predecessor Tiefensee were blamed. But as Jung achieved a decisivel victory over weak opponents in the mayoral election, last year, it is possible some votes of this now would stick with the SPD in the Landtag elections for it is seen as more viable. But this point is only broad speculation.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on January 07, 2014, 11:23:08 am
Yasmin Fahimi, the secretary of the mining and chemical industries labour union BCE, is reported to become new general secretary of the SPD, as Andrea Nahles was appointed to the Merkel III cabinet.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 15, 2014, 06:58:43 am
All state election dates have now been set:

31.08.2014: Sachsen (Saxony)
14.09.2014: Brandenburg, Thüringen (Thuringia)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 15, 2014, 07:04:49 am
New Hamburg state election poll by Infratest dimap for NDR:

(Image Link)

EU elections:

(Image Link)

Job approvals of party leaders:

(Image Link)

Direct vote for Mayor:

(Image Link)

By party:

(Image Link)

http://www.ndr.de/regional/hamburg/umfrage621.html


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 15, 2014, 07:08:42 am
New Bayern (Bavaria) state election poll by Infratest dimap for BR:

(Image Link)

Also:

Bavarians support the CSU-policy against "Social tourism into the German safety net by poor Romanians and Bulgarians" by 60-35.

Bavarians also support the use of mini-cameras on police helmets/uniforms:

(Image Link)

http://www.br.de/fernsehen/bayerisches-fernsehen/sendungen/kontrovers/bayerntrend-2014-kontrovers-100.html


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 15, 2014, 07:27:14 am
Interesting chart from last weeks Infratest dimap Germany poll:

(Image Link)

Opinions about immigration from EU member countries

83-14 agree (immigrants from other EU countries who move to Germany, but with no intention to work, should get no financial benefits)

76-20 agree (the political parties are doing not enough about the problems that are caused by immigration)

70-26 agree (immigrants from other EU countries who move to Germany, but with no intention to work, should have to leave the country again)

68-31 agree (our economy needs qualified workers from other countries to remain successful)

46-49 disagree (I think that Germany has more advantages than disadvantages from immigrants)

34-65 disagree (I'm personally scared by the immigration of foreigners of other EU member countries)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Peter the Lefty on January 25, 2014, 11:08:03 pm
Depressing poll results.  Anyways, Kretschmann looks like he's in for a fight with the Catholic Church in B-W (http://m.spiegel.de/schulspiegel/wissen/a-943562.html#spRedirectedFrom=www&referrrer=https://www.google.com/) over the issue of teaching sexual diversity in public school sex-ed classes.  Hope it doesn't do him in in such a conservative state.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (3rd Merkel government sworn in.)
Post by: Franknburger on January 26, 2014, 03:07:07 pm
Depressing poll results.  Anyways, Kretschmann looks like he's in for a fight with the Catholic Church in B-W (http://m.spiegel.de/schulspiegel/wissen/a-943562.html#spRedirectedFrom=www&referrrer=https://www.google.com/) over the issue of teaching sexual diversity in public school sex-ed classes.  Hope it doesn't do him in in such a conservative state.

Church membership in Baden-Würtemberg (2011, quoted from Wikipedia):

Catholics        35.8 %
Protestants     31.9 %
Muslim             5.6 %
other               1.6 %
None              25.1 %

Against these figures, a fight with the Catholic Church on their influence on school teaching should rather benefit the Greens (note also that Catholic doesn't necessarily mean socially conservative, as Kretschmann, a Catholic himself, proves).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Not a whole lot has changed...)
Post by: Franzl on January 29, 2014, 11:16:11 am
New federal Forsa poll:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 23%
Grüne: 11%
Linke: 9%

AfD: 4%
FDP: 4%

CDU/CSU 1% short of an absolute majority.

In a direct election for chancellor:   Merkel 59%- Gabriel 16%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Not a whole lot has changed...)
Post by: Peter the Lefty on February 02, 2014, 11:46:37 am
Anyways, Gabriel is now the undisputed frontrunner for the SPD's candidacy in 2017. (http://www.policy-network.net/pno_detail.aspx?ID=4553&title=Sigmar+Gabriel’s+political+miracle)

To the Germans here: Any chance Merkel will step down mid-term?  I realize that von der Leyen now appears to be obvious successor.  In which case, it would appear that the current CDU dynasty is set to last at least another 8 years or so. 


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Not a whole lot has changed...)
Post by: Franzl on February 02, 2014, 11:52:56 am
To the Germans here: Any chance Merkel will step down mid-term?

There have been rumors, that, of course, have been denied by the government. But it wouldn't be a big surprise.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Not a whole lot has changed...)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 05, 2014, 10:17:47 am
Long-time Berlin mayor Klaus Wowereit (SPD) is in some - possibly career-ending? - trouble.

One of his under secretaries apparently conducted some tax evasion and Wowereit knew of it since 2012, but didn't do anything about it back then. He fired him now, after it finally became public a couple of days ago. Further criticism stems from the fact that Wowereit is currently on vacation in Austria, which he doesn't intend to interrupt despite the scandal and is therefore only communicating through written statements.

Apparently, some folks are even planning to start a official petition on holding a referendum which would trigger early elections in the city-state (Article 54 Section 3 of the Berlin constitution states that the state parliament's term can be prematurely terminated if the citizens demand it through a referendum).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Not a whole lot has changed...)
Post by: palandio on February 08, 2014, 07:48:59 am
In spring local elections will take place in many cities and towns of Germany:

16 March: Bavaria (for example Munich and Nuremberg)
30 March: Run-offs in Bavaria
25 May: North Rhine-Westfalia, Baden-Württemberg, Mecklenburg-Pomerania

In Munich all parties and groups that are represented in the city council at the moment will file lists again:

SPD (33 seats at the moment), CSU (22), Greens (11), FDP (4), Left (3), Free Voters (3), Pink List [LGBT] (1), ÖDP [Ecological Democratic Party] (1), Bavaria Party (1), Citizens' Initiative Foreigner Stop [NPD, neo-nazi] (1).
In the last election only one Free Voters candidate had been elected, but one CSU and one FDP member crossed the floor.
Additionally the following groups have successfully filed lists:
AfD [euro-sceptics that got 4.8% in the last federal election], Pirate Party, The Liberty [islamophobes], Electoral Group HUT [humanistic-independent-tolerant].
These groups failed to reach 1000 signatures: Young List, Animal Welfare, Party of Reason ["Libertarians"] and The Violets [Spiritual Politics]

All groups that have successfully filed lists, will also run a mayor candidate, with the exception of Pink List and Pirate Party. Christian Ude (SPD), mayor and very popular for 21 years, has reached the age limit, will resign and go to Mykonos. The most prominent candidates are:
Dieter Reiter (SPD), who will try to defend the mayor post for his party,
Josef Schmid (CSU), who ran in 2008 but had no chance against Ude,
Sabine Nallinger (Greens).
This open seat race will be much more contested than the 1999, 2002 and 2008 elections.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Not a whole lot has changed...)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 13, 2014, 08:31:25 am
BIZARRE CHILD PORNOGRAPHY SCANDAL!!


So, this is what happened so far:

Last week, mid-level SPD Bundestag member Sebastian Edathy suddenly announced his resignation, effective immediately. He cited "health reasons" for taking this step.

Early this week, police searched Edathy's house und soon rumours concerning child pornography started to surface. Edathy - who apparently isn't in Germany at this point - has denied the allegations and claims his innocence via Facebook.

Today, it was revealed that SPD chairman Sigmar Gabriel was informed of the investigations against Edathy since last October because then-interior minister (and incumbent agriculture minister) Hans-Peter Friedrich had told him about it.

This means that Friedrich may have exceeded his authority and has possibly even committed a crime (e.g. Section 353b of the Criminal Code: Breach of official secrets and special duties of confidentiality).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Not a whole lot has changed...)
Post by: Franknburger on February 13, 2014, 02:51:11 pm
Intended to post the same story - this will keep going on for some time.

In fact, Edathy has been a bit more than a mid-level SPD parliamentarian. He was head of the parliamentary committee that investigated the NSU affair (NSU = national-socialist underground, a terror cell that over almost 15 years committed at least ten murders of ethnic Turks and Greeks living in Germany, plus one policewoman, without ever getting noticed by authorities). Many expected him to assume a government post in the grand coalition - secretary of state within the Ministry of Interior, possibly with responsibility for combatting politically-motivated crime, looks like a plausible option. That would also explain why Friedrich in October, i.e. when coalition talks were already on-going, pointed out to Gabriel, Steinmeier and SPD parliamentary whip Thomas Oppermann that investigation against Edarthy was under way.

Edathy had since October withdrawn from active political work, reportedly for "burn-out symptoms", and this week formally resigned as Bundestag member - just before an official request for removing his parliamentary immunity was to be launched. Today, the police searched his house and his office, finding only one computer (but cabling for a number more), and remains of a mechanically destroyed hard-disk.  His IP address has been recorded with a Canada-based child pornography ring. However - a politician with focus on crime prevention may also have professional reasons to check out such a site. So far, it seems unlikely that anything else may be proven..

Now it gets interesting:
1. Why, absent any hard proof on Edathy's involvement with child pornography, has the whole case been published?

2. Why does SPD parliamentary whip Thomas Oppermann (a lawyer from Hannover, just as Edathy) on the morning Edathy's premises are being searched, issue a press statement that he, Gabriel and Steinmeier (both also representing southern Lower Saxony - it's quite a local club) had already last October been informed by Friedrich about on-going investigations?

3. Why does Oppermann, in the same statement, point out that he had cross-checked Friedrich's information with Bundeskriminalalamt (Federal Bureau of Investigation) head Jörg Ziercke, just for Ziercke, himself SPD member, immediately denying having given any information on the case to Oppermann?

4. How come the Hannover state attorneys, after the search of Edathy's premises failed to find anything substantial, issuing a press statement indicating Friedrich may have committed a crime by warning a suspect on an on-going investigation? And the Berlin state attorneys just a few hours later announcing they have started an official investigation in Friedrich's action (who, of course, is also under parliamentary immunity)?

This looks like the overture to a war of roses that may easily evolve into everyone against everyone, and the protagonists involved are anything but political lightweights. Note, btw, that Steinmeier has still a score to settle with Friedrich, who during the election campaign suggested that it was Steinmeier inviting the NSA to wire-tap German citizens. There is also substantial discomfort within the SPD on having given in to CDU pressure on the issue of storing phone and internet connection data - officially to ensure Germany complies with respective EU regulation (which the European Constitutional court has in the meantime ruled to be in violation of EU principles).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Not a whole lot has changed...)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 13, 2014, 04:56:47 pm
I have a strong feeling that Friedrich will be an ex-minister a week from now. Merkel sure doesn't like having a liability on the cabinet and so she'll try to contain the damage. I guess Jörg Ziercke, the head of the Federal Criminal Police, might also be considered expendable at this point.

This still leaves a lot of questions though. For instance, is Edathy a pedophile, the victim of an intrigue against him or maybe even both? Did someone in the government use the information which was illegally "leaked" by Friedrich to the SPD to tip off Edathy and if so, who? Where exactly is Edathy and does he intend to return to Germany? And why the f**k did German politics suddenly turn into House of Cards?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Not a whole lot has changed...)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 14, 2014, 04:39:30 am
Probability increases that Friedrich steps down today. Left, Greens, and FDP have demanded his resignation and the CSU leadership has come together for an emergency meeting "to discuss the minister's future".

UPDATE: Friedrich - Gonna resign if a investigation is launched against me.

http://www.dw.de/german-agriculture-minister-friedrich-offers-potential-resignation-amid-edathy-scandal/a-17430631


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Not a whole lot has changed...)
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on February 14, 2014, 10:29:04 am
Tagesschau says, Friedrich will resign in half an hour.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Not a whole lot has changed...)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 14, 2014, 10:32:40 am
Yeah, Friedrich is gone. That was a fast one... resignation for something which had only became public 24 hours ago or so.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Not a whole lot has changed...)
Post by: Franzl on February 14, 2014, 10:35:19 am
Kind of tragic that this is what sunk Friedrich's boat. I can think of better reasons he should have gotten the boot long ago.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Not a whole lot has changed...)
Post by: Franknburger on February 14, 2014, 11:09:22 am
Yes, but that's how policy works.

So, the SPD gets a knight for a pawn. I wonder whether that is the end of the story. The queen Merkel won't touch Gabriel and Steinmeier at the moment, because that would mean new elections, and probably the AfD entering the Bundestag. But Oppermann might be vulnerable...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Not a whole lot has changed...)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 14, 2014, 11:49:41 am
Friedrich's announcement in short:
- He didn't do anything wrong.
- He steps down due to "lack of political support".
- He'll be back.

This is probably as close to a "f**k you Merkel" as you can get. :P


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Not a whole lot has changed...)
Post by: Franknburger on February 14, 2014, 12:27:14 pm
Shall we start betting on the pay-back to the SPD?

I suppose the CDU/CSU will be focusing in on Minister of Labour Andrea Nahles. She isn't very popular with the general public anyway, and getting her under pressure could stop or at least delay the introduction of a minimum wage, and the costly early retirement of those having been on the labour market for at least 45 years.
She doesn't have a PhD, so that approach is out. But I wouldn't wonder if there is already a team looking through everything she said during her time as head of the JuSos (SPD youth organisation) in the 1990s.

If you ever missed "Game of Thrones", it's on again ...

P.S: As to Friedrich: I could imagine that background checking was part of the standard procedure applied to any potential candidate for office within the Grand Coalition, and done upon prior agreement with both Merkel and Gabriel. If so, Friedrich has every reason to be pi..ed on Merkel, and is probably wishing he had left it to Merkel to pass on information retrieved to the SPD leadership.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Not a whole lot has changed...)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 14, 2014, 06:24:05 pm
(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Not a whole lot has changed...)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 14, 2014, 06:32:52 pm
The thing is... Sigmar Gabriel is probably as guilty as Friedrich that the info on the child porn investigation eventually reached Edathy. However, Sigmar Gabriel can't step down because such a step could threaten the stability of this government. Friedrich on the other hand is merely the minister of agriculture and merely from the CSU. Besides, he was regarded damaged goods anyway because of his moronic handling of the NSA affair last year. Unlike Gabriel, Friedrich was expendable.

This leaves a loose end though. Someone in the SPD informed Sebastian Edathy of the investigation against him. Ironically, it is Edathy himself who could identify this person. Which means that he possesses the ability to destroy another political career.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (Not a whole lot has changed...)
Post by: Franknburger on February 14, 2014, 08:26:21 pm
This leaves a loose end though. Someone in the SPD informed Sebastian Edathy of the investigation against him. Ironically, it is Edathy himself who could identify this person. Which means that he possesses the ability to destroy another political career.

First of all, Edathy definitely knew something would be coming up when removing his parliamentary immunity was requested. As such, the whole bickering of Hannover prosecutors lacks material substance - there never was the slightest chance for a surprise search.

Then, let's not forget that Edathy headed the NSU parliamentary investigation committee. There is hardly a better position to build up contacts towards all relevant law enforcement agencies. Edathy has obviously been a pain in the ass to some people, but there will be a number of others being grateful to his work, maybe even owing him a favour. I haven't counted how many heads have rolled due to the affair, but it should be quite a number...

Moreover, the heads of the Landeskriminalämter (state criminal offices) were also already in October informed about investigation on Edathy. This means that the Lower Saxony Minster of the Interior should as well have known.

So there are a number of ways how the info could have reached Edathy. Maybe even nobody had to tell him at all, he just needed to put 1 and 1 together. A Canada-based child porn ring that he frequented (for which reason ever) is uncovered, and he suddenly disappears from the list of potential office holders (probably first of all from the list of SPD members within the coalition negotiation work group on interior affairs). It's not too difficult to figure out what that could mean...

Friedrich on the other hand is merely the minister of agriculture and merely from the CSU. Besides, he was regarded damaged goods anyway because of his moronic handling of the NSA affair last year. Unlike Gabriel, Friedrich was expendable.
And, possibly, Merkel was just waiting for the opportunity to get rid of him. Ramsauer, who had f..ed up virtually everything a Minister of Transport can f..k up (Berlin-Brandenburg airport, Stuttgart 21, Fehmarnbelt-Tunnel, Kiel Canal closure..) was obviously first priority for disposal. Aigner, who wasn't brilliant either, decided to leave for herself. In that situation, additionally kicking out Friedrich could have risked even more conflict with Seehofer, So,  side-lining Friedrich from Interior to Agriculture might be the maximum she deemed achievable during the coalition talks. But when a golden opportunity arises, it shouldn't be left unused..


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 15, 2014, 12:05:54 pm
Sebastian Edathy is back and he gave SPIEGEL an interview. He denies having been tipped off by someone in the SPD, he denies having destroyed evidence after being tipped off, and he blasts the authorities for the way their investigation was conducted against him.

Despite being a possible pedophile, they'll probably never charge him with any crime. But it seems that he'll be busy giving interviews the coming weeks. :P


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Franzl on February 15, 2014, 12:07:34 pm
I do hope for some more drama, though. Getting rid of Friedrich was nice.....now if we could talk about Gabriel next :)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 15, 2014, 12:19:04 pm
Meanwhile, both CDU deputy chairman Armin Laschet and CSU Bundestag member Hans-Peter Uhl have demanded that the leaders of the SPD sign statements under oath that they didn't personally inform Edathy.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Franknburger on February 15, 2014, 03:58:48 pm
Meanwhile, both CDU deputy chairman Armin Laschet and CSU Bundestag member Hans-Peter Uhl have demanded that the leaders of the SPD sign statements under oath that they didn't personally inform Edathy.
Predictable, and fruitless. Of course SPD leaders informed Edathy that he won't play a role in coalition talks and afterwards. How they explained it to him - who knows? But that is a line of discussion that will quickly get nasty not only for the SPD leaders, but also for Merkel. She can't really say she didn't know about Friedrich doing background checks on senior SPD personnel, and should she concede to have been informed as well on Friedrich passing on such information, she is toast.

That, in turn, makes me wonder whom Laschel and Uhl are really targeting at, and how long Merkel (and Seeoofer) will allow such demands to continue.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Famous Mortimer on February 15, 2014, 05:41:24 pm
"His IP address has been recorded with a Canada-based child pornography ring. However - a politician with focus on crime prevention may also have professional reasons to check out such a site."

This is proof he is a pedo. You do not need to see pictures of little kids getting penetrated to know it's bad.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 15, 2014, 06:17:55 pm
"His IP address has been recorded with a Canada-based child pornography ring. However - a politician with focus on crime prevention may also have professional reasons to check out such a site."

This is proof he is a pedo. You do not need to see pictures of little kids getting penetrated to know it's bad.

Well, policemen happen to look at child porn for the very same reason, so it wasn't that far-fetched an assumption.

However, the state of affairs seems to be that Edathy is in fact a pedophile, even though the authorities won't be able to prosecute him for anything.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Franknburger on February 15, 2014, 08:03:15 pm
According to the information retrieved by Canadian authorities during their investigation of the Canada-based ring, Edathy has between 2005 and 2010 received 31 photos. These photos display 7-13 years old naked boys, which are neither engaging in sexual activities nor are photographed  in any sexually explicit  manner. Such material is not illegal in Germany. From what I have read, the Canadian authorities have not been investigating the distribution of such photos, but of other, more explicit material that the ring started providing after 2010. The press here reports that Friedrich last October informed SPD leadership that Edathy was implied into the Canadian case, but that German authorities would not have any indication that he had actually done anything unlawful.

As such, there is no proof so far that Edathy has been committing any offence. Whether he has pedophile tendencies is up for speculation. There will probably be enough people in Germany supposing he has such tendencies to put his political career to an end.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Beezer on February 16, 2014, 06:10:43 am
Wait a couple of years, then get elected to the EP. I'm sure Cohn-Bendit wouldn't mind having Edathy in his caucus.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 16, 2014, 12:04:54 pm
Wait a couple of years, then get elected to the EP. I'm sure Cohn-Bendit wouldn't mind having Edathy in his caucus.

Cohn-Bendit is gonna retire after this May, duh.

I just read on stern.de that the SPD suspects Sebastian Edathy in Denmark, but they don't have any confirmation for this. Apparently, his interview with SPIEGEL was conducted via e-mail.

After Friedrich has stepped down the attention has now turned to SPD parliamentary group leader Thomas Oppermann who apparently would be "next in line" for a resignation in this affair.

And the authorities are considering to launch an investigation against unknown members of the Bundestag on the suspicion of obstruction of justice.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 16, 2014, 03:13:02 pm
CSU general secretary Andreas Scheuer has demanded Thomas Oppermann's resignation. Oppermann was the one who had leaked Hans-Peter Friedrich's name to the press and now they want him gone.

If the CSU doesn't back off from that demand the SPD has two choices: Sacrificing Oppermann or risking early elections. The former might be considered the lesser evil, even though it would make look vice-chancellor Sigmar Gabriel weak. Yesterday or so, Gabriel had declared that nobody from the SPD will resign.

The alternative is that Merkel tries to talk the CSU out of it.

On Tuesday, there will be an meeting of the leaders of the governing parties and we'll know more after that, at the latest.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Famous Mortimer on February 16, 2014, 03:54:45 pm
Early national elections?

I think they may have overplayed their hand.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Franknburger on February 16, 2014, 03:58:03 pm
Actually, the SPD can just watch CSU politicians steaming and sit it out. Oppermann is their parliamentary whip - no government post, no CDU/CSU influence on that position. Asides, Oppermann claims that his press statement was pre-agreed with Friedrich, who received a draft of the statement one day before it was released.

Tuesday will become interesting, nevertheless. Afterwards we should have a clearer picture whether the SPD from the beginning intended to get rid of Friedrich, or Merkel used what she deemed to be a golden opportunity.

P.S: By my calculation, a CDU / SPD government without the CSU still would have a comfortable majority. Shouldn't take too long for the CSU to realise that fact. Oh, this is really fun!


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 17, 2014, 05:42:17 am
Oppermann is their parliamentary whip - no government post, no CDU/CSU influence on that position.

If the CSU wants Oppermann gone and the alternative is risking an end to the coalition and the SPD doesn't want the coalition to end this effectively means that the CSU holds an influence over the position.

It's not a question of which position Oppermann currently holds, it's a question of who will blink first. If the CSU is just bluffing, everything's fine... if they're not then it's not.

And I don't think it's a realistic scenario that the CDU is wiling to end their historic union with the CSU over someone like Thomas Oppermann. The question is whether CSU and/or SPD are willing to end the coalition over someone like Oppermann.

That being said, I still think that either the CSU backing off or the SPD sacrificing Oppermann are far more likely than early elections.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Franzl on February 17, 2014, 06:02:38 am
New elections would be fun, though :)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: palandio on February 17, 2014, 08:43:31 am
Merkel has declared her full confidence in Gabriel. Those who have been following German politics closely for the last few years probably know what the declaration of full confidence by Merkel means. :-p (Every minister with full confidence had to resign soon after.)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 17, 2014, 09:37:11 am
Ah, like the average football club owner.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 18, 2014, 05:43:23 am
Last year it was the Greens, this year the SPD.

I think the SPD can bury their hopes of coming anywhere close to the CDU in the EP elections because of this.

Just look how the Green support collapsed after the allegations became known and then they only got 8.5% after polling 14-15%.

There are already signs that the SPD will take a hit in the polls too.

The good thing for them is that the elections are still a few months away.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Franzl on February 18, 2014, 05:45:06 am
Just look how the Green support collapsed after the allegations became known and then they only got 8.5% after polling 14-15%.

To be fair, even disregarding that incident, the Greens ran an exceptionally poor campaign. I'm not sure they would have reached double digits anyway.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on February 18, 2014, 10:52:42 am
I don't think that a narrative à la "The SPD is a party full of pedophiles and supports child abuse" will come out of this, that was buzzing throughout the right wing parts of the internet throughout ten years and was then made public. As Jörg Tauss did not hurt them - and did not hurt the Pirates, Edathy should not hurt them, but I don't know how far this irrational pedoscare thing will reach, that has lost all senses of proportion.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 18, 2014, 12:55:03 pm
I doubt that this is about pedophilia at the moment, although some politicians have of course demanded tougher laws against child porn as a result of the Edathy affair.

I think the main narrative at this point is that the Grand coalition has become dysfunctional. For the last couple of days, CDU/CSU and SPD mainly seemed busy with getting rid of office-holders from the opposite party.

That and the fact that various people in the government may have willingly or unwittingly helped Edathy escape the authorities and the ramifications from that.

So, the issues are a) cabinet crisis and b) obstruction of justice. Edathy himself only serves as a backdrop.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 18, 2014, 03:51:36 pm
Thomas Oppermann says he can't go because he's an "anchor of stability" for this coalition.

My first thought :P :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37OWL7AzvHo


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Franknburger on February 18, 2014, 06:15:28 pm
Update on recent developments:

- After tonight's "elephant round" (Merkel, Gabriel, Seehofer), participants declined to disclose any details. Merkel has confirmed that Friedrich's retreat was the right step, and announced that further details will be investigated. The grand coalition is not in question, Merkel has stated that cooperation will continue.

- Christian Schmidt (CSU), previously Secretary of State within the Ministries of Economic Co-operation (since late 2013) and Defense (2005-2013) will become new Minister of Agriculture. Friedrich has unanimously been elected CSU deputy parliamentary whip, replacing Thomas Silberborn, who takes up the post of Secretary of State within the Ministry of Economic Co-operation that has been vacated by Schmidt. CSU parliamentary whip Gerda Hasselfeld has stated that trust in the political partner (i.e. the SPD) might influence political decision making, e.g. related to energy policy (Gabriel's portfolio).

- SPD parliamentary whip Oppermann has stated the SPD would not "connect issues that are not related to each other". He himself would be "an anchor of stability" for the coalition. Within the SPD leadership, there has been an emotional debate whether Edathy should be expelled.  Gabriel pushes for such a move. Others say they are in sorrow about Edathy - he would require help, not more kicking when already down on the floor.

The affair itself is even getting more obscure:
- Former Lower Saxony Minister of Interior Heiner Bartling (SPD, in office 1998-2003) has reported about a telephone talk with Edathy last week, where Edathy indicated that he had been tipped-off by an informant from inside the prosecution apparatus ("Da läuft was gegen Dich" - "Something is going on against you", with "you" in the German familiar mode (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%E2%80%93V_distinction), corresponding to Early Modern English "thee").
- After Canadian authorities had held a press conference on the child porn ring on November 14, 2013, Edathy's lawyer on November 20 had requested a meeting with Hannover's state attorney.
-The official letter requesting removal of Edathy's parliamentary immunity is dated February 6 and was posted on February 7. It, however, only reached the Bundestag presidency on February 12, and has apparently been opened, resealed and handed to another deliverer in the meantime. Sebastian Edathy retreated as parliamentarian on the morning of February 7. Strange coincidence...
- The first press report on the case comes out on February 11 in a local newspaper in Edathy's constituency. It includes photographs from the police's first search of Edathy's premises on February 10. On February 12, a telefax dated February 10 is received by the police station responsible for the Bundestag in which Edathy makes report of his duty laptop (public property) having disappeared on a railway journey to Amsterdam. Other than requested by Hanoover prosecutors, Edathy's Bundestag office has not been officially sealed. However, Bundestag administration has taken all computers there into custody - permission to search them has been requested today.

Bottom line: While the CSU will continue being upset for some more time, it looks unlikely that anything can be stuck on Oppermann or other SPD leaders. Lower Saxony prosecution agencies, however, might get even more into crossfire. That might concern some state politicians as well, especially Minister of Interior Boris Pistorius (SPD). Not quite the game the CSU is out for, but beggars can't be choosers...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 19, 2014, 04:11:25 am
Everything seems to have calmed down a bit at the moment. Merkel, Seehofer, and Gabriel have met but won't tell what they have talked about. Perhaps they have told their own forces to shut the f**k up for the moment though. Plus, the Edathy scandal is starting to get overshadowed by Ukraine in the media.

Merkel should thank Yanukovych for doing her a favour.  :P


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on February 26, 2014, 12:50:54 pm
Breaking: Threshold for the Euros is unconstitutional.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 26, 2014, 12:52:30 pm
Breaking: Threshold for the Euros is unconstitutional.

Look, it's Lewis !

:o


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Franknburger on February 26, 2014, 06:22:31 pm
Please consider to reconsider :)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on March 05, 2014, 04:22:36 am
So all this scandal over child porn was overshadowed by Ukraine I gather ? Nothing more worthy of mention ?

Anyway, Forsa poll :
CDU/CSU 40
SPD 22
Linke 11
Greens 10
AfD 6
FDP 4
Andere 7


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (SCANDAL!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on March 05, 2014, 04:37:39 am
Yup, pretty much.

Just for the record, they were recent calls for the resignation of Federal Criminal Police chief Jörg Ziercke und there's gonna be a Bundestag committee of inquiry on the Edathy affair. And Edathy is still at some unknown location outside of Germany.

But nobody cares right now... not the media anyway. Steinmeier is busy travelling between Kiev, Berlin, Paris, and Brussels. And Sigmar Gabriel wanted to go to Moscow this week too, I think.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on March 09, 2014, 07:39:37 am
FDP drops to 3% again. :P

CDU/CSU 42%
SPD 23%
Greens 10%
Left 10%
AfD 5%
FDP 3%

(Emnid, 03/09)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Hans-im-Glück on March 15, 2014, 12:28:09 pm
Tomorrow are Local Elections in Bavaria.

From 18:00 local time you can see the results here:

http://www.kommunalwahl2014.bayern.de/
http://www.br.de/wahl/kommunalwahl-2014-bayern-aktuell-102.html

Here you can see the live coverage at the Bavarian TV:

http://megatv.to/Live-Stream/allgemein/br3.html

The most intresting race is who will be the new Mayor of Munich. The currant Mayor Christian Ude can't run and the race is open.



Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on March 15, 2014, 02:33:15 pm
In my eyes the Munich CSU poster campaign has been quite intelligent, attacking the SPD-Green government on crucial topics (housing etc.). Nevertheless the local CSU chapter is still not too popular. They will have difficulties to win in the run-off.

My prediction:
CSU 33.0% (from 27.7%)
SPD 32.5% (from 39.8%)
Greens 13.0% (from 13.0%)
AfD 3.5% (new)
FDP 3.0% (from 6.8%)
Left 3.0% (from 3.7%)
Free Voters 2.0% (from 1.6%)
Pirates 2.0% (new)
Pink List 1.5% (from 1.9%)
Ecological Democratic Party 1.5% (from 1.7%)
Bavaria Party 1.5% (from 1.5%)
HUT 1.5% (new)
Citizens' Initiative Foreigner Stop 1.0% (from 1.4%)
The Liberty 1.0% (new)

Mayor, first round:
Reiter, SPD 38.0%
Schmid, CSU 33.0%
Nallinger, Greens 15.0%
Waechter, AfD 3.0%
Mattar, FDP 2.0%
Wolf, Left 2.0%
Altmann, Free Voters 1.5%
Zeilnhofer-Rath, HUT 1.5%
Ruff, Eco-Dems 1.0%
Muenzinger, BP 1.0%
Richter, Foreigner Stop 1.0%
Stuerzenberger, Liberty 1.0%

Run-off:
Reiter 55.0%, Schmid 45.0%.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franknburger on March 16, 2014, 01:50:30 pm
First results from Bavaria are in. Notable:

Nürnberger Land county: In two towns (Rothenbach/ Pegnitz and Lauf/ Pegnitz), the Green candidate for mayor received most votes. Both towns will  go into run-off; Lauf Greens vs. CSU, Rothenbach Greens & FW vs. SPD,

Schweinfurt City elects a CSU mayor (67%). As industrial town, Schweinfurt should be red, but it apparently isn't.

Passau elects an SPD mayor with 65%.

Coburg elects an SPD mayor with 51%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on March 18, 2014, 11:54:42 am
Local elections are highly influenced by local issues. Popular incumbents can win by wide margins even if they don't belong to the natural majority party. Retiring Munich mayor Christian Ude (SPD) rightfully said "The first election is the most difficult one" when commenting on the first-round result of Dieter Reiter (SPD). In my eyes the heavy SPD losses in Munich are kind of a reversal to the mean. (My predictions turned out to be not so far off, after all...)

Munich results, mayor:
Reiter, SPD 40.4%
Schmid, CSU 36.7%
Nallinger, Greens 14.7%
Mattar, FDP 1.4%
Waechter, AfD 1.2%
Wolf, Left 1.2%
Altmann, Free Voters 1.1%
Ruff, Eco-Dems 1.1%
Zeilnhofer-Rath, HUT 0.9%
Muenzinger, BP 0.5%
Stuerzenberger, Liberty 0.5%
Richter, Foreigner Stop 0.4%

Run-off between Reiter and Schmid on 30 March.


City council:
CSU 32.6% (from 27.7%), 26 seats
SPD 30.8% (from 39.8%), 25 seats
Greens 16.6% (from 13.0%), 13 seats
FDP 3.4% (from 6.8%), 3 seats
Free Voters 2.7% (from 1.6%), 2 seats
AfD 2.5% (new), 2 seats
Ecological Democratic Party 2.5% (from 1.7%), 2 seats
Left 2.4% (from 3.7%), 2 seats
Pink List 1.9% (from 1.9%), 1 seat
HUT 1.3% (new), 1 seat
Pirates 1.2% (new), 1 seat
Bavaria Party 0.9% (from 1.5%), 1 seat
Citizens' Initiative Foreigner Stop 0.7% (from 1.4%), 1 seat
The Liberty 0.6% (new), no seat

SPD + Greens + Pink List: 39 seats, total seats: 80


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 18, 2014, 01:51:36 pm
I predict Reiter to win by 52-48 in the run-off, or so.

It's also possible that the CSU-man wins this.

...

Also, considering the Red-Green-Pinkie coalition was voted out, which coalition is now likely in Munich ?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ERvND on March 18, 2014, 02:16:44 pm
Other notable results:

Nuremberg: Ulrich Maly (SPD) wins by 67% and is now expected to be the party's frontrunner in the next state elections.

Augsburg: The CSU mayor wins in the first round, despite longstanding quarrels within his city government.

Regensburg: The SPD candidate reaches 49,97%, with only 18 vtes missing to avoid a runoff.

Ingolstadt: The CSU defends its stronghold easily.

Fürth: The SPD candidate wins by 73%.

Erlangen: The long-term CSU mayor is forced into a runoff against the SPD candidate.


Despite some successes in bigger cities, the SPD loses overall, especially in rural areas, where it's now only the third or fourth power in some places.

 


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on March 18, 2014, 03:37:55 pm
I predict Reiter to win by 54-46.
In the case Reiter wins there are several main possibilities:
1) SPD+Greens+Pink+ÖDP, either as a formal coalition or as some kind of working agreement.
(In theory SPD+Greens+Pink+1 councilor would be enough, because the mayor is tie-breaker.)
2) SPD+CSU.
3) No coalition, minority government, changing alliances. The normal case in many smaller cities and towns.
In the case Schmid wins:
1) CSU+SPD.
2) CSU+Greens+1 councilor (again the ÖDP might come into mind, but also FDP etc.)
3) No formal coalition.

@ERvND: You're right that the SPD trend in many rural areas is still negative. The CSU has not been able to gain much from this. The winners are local outfits and smaller parties.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franknburger on March 20, 2014, 03:40:50 pm
Here's the final result of the Bavarian local election - the voting system appears to by quite complicated, so counting took quite a while:

CSU                 39.7 (-0.3)
SPD                 20.7 (-1.9)
Greens            10.2 (+2.0)
FW                   3.9 (+3.9)*
FDP                  2.4 (-1.4)*
ÖDP                 2.1 (+0.3)
other Parties     2.2 (--)*
open party lists 3.7 (+1.2)
local groups     15.3 (-3.7)

*)  not running in all cities / counties. Linke, AfD and Pirates typically only ran in the major cities.

When local lists centred around one party are included, the result is as follows:

CSU                 39.9 (-0.4)
SPD                 20.7 (-1.9)
Greens             10.8 (+1.9)
FW                    5.1 (+5.1)
FDP                   2.7 (-1.5)*
ÖDP                  3.1 (+0.3)*

Surprisingly, the Greens have been the big winner, at the expense of the SPD. Low participation (43.5%, -4.9) is part of the story, but the Greens have gained 90,000 additional voters (plus 20%). FW were not on the ballot in 2008, Their gain is roughly corresponding to the decrease with local lists (several of which may have relabelled), plus the FDP loss.

The SPD sweeped Fürth (51.1) and Nuremberg (44.1). They came in above 30% in the cities (but not the surrounding counties) of Munich, Regensburg, Aschaffenburg and Weiden/Opf, and in the NE (Coburg/ Hof/ Wunsiedel)

The Grreen strongholds were university towns (Bamberg 18.5, Wurzburg 17.5,  Erlangen 15.8 ), Munich (16.6) and even more so the surrounding counties (Freising - MUC airport 19.4, Starnberg 17.4), the cities of Landshut (16.3) and Rosenheim (16.0), Berchtesgaden and Traunstein near Salzburg (15.5 each), and parts of the Nuremberg periphery (Schwalbach 15.9).

FW came in strongly in the periphery of medium-scale car-manufacturing cities, most notably Neuburg-Schrobenhausen (near Ingolstadt, 33.4), Landshut county (26.7) and Regensburg county (25.1).

The CSU, finally, swept the countryside. They achieved close to or more than 50% in and around Schweinfurt, Rosenheim and Straubing, around Augsburg, and along the Inn.

Maps
http://www.br-online.de/kommunalwahl/
(click on "Parteistärke" on the  right-hand menu for individual party maps).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 30, 2014, 12:17:16 pm
Dieter Reiter (SPD) is winning the Munich mayoral run-off today with almost 60-40 vs. the CSU-guy.

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on March 30, 2014, 12:47:32 pm
Munich:

Dieter Reiter (SPD) won with 56,7%. The SPD lost 12 percent compared to 2008 where Christian Ude got 66,8%. The CSU recovered but is still far away from gaining the office of mayor.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on March 31, 2014, 06:20:19 am
The SPD has gained the mayor position in Regensburg and Erlangen.

On the other hand SPD candidates had bad luck in the counties of Dachau (49.8%), Traunstein (49%), Schwandorf (49%) and Hof (48%).

For the first time there will be two Green Landräte in Miltenberg (Lower Franconia) and Miesbach (Upper Bavaria). Miesbach has become known in the last weeks for the CSU Landrat Jakob Kreidel who was involved in several scandals including a birthday party for 100 thousand €, paid for by the local Sparkasse (municipal bank). Otherwise the county of Miesbach is known for its traditional costumes, mountains, rural conservatism and the Valley of the Rich (Tegernsee valley). To me personally the Green win in Miesbach came as a surprise.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on March 31, 2014, 08:42:51 am
In the overall balance of the two rounds of voting in 77 counties and cities changed in 17 cases, the party affiliation. While the CSU loses seven incumbents, they added ten wins and will in future be 62 county councilors and mayor in Bavaria. The SPD lost six items and receive three new ones, so that there will soon be 18 Social Democratic officials. From ÖDP, Free Voters and other groups of voters supported candidates officiate future in 15 cities and counties. The Greens represent a district administrator.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on March 31, 2014, 09:38:02 am
Overall these elections should make all major parties think about certain issues:

CSU:
- Lost even more mayor posts in the cities and becomes an increasingly less urban party.
- Their proportional vote share for the Kreistage was even lower than their record low in 2008.
- Despite Munich being a toss-up in every federal and regional election with CSU candidates winning almost all constituencies, their local Munich chapter remain an incompetent bunch of losers unable to gain from problems like the heated housing market.

SPD:
- Their proportional vote share fell by 2% and is now even lower than their record low in 2008.
- In many parts of rural Bavaria they are now only one of several minor parties like the Greens, Free Voters, Eco-Dems and unaffiliated voter groups.
- SPD candidates for the mayor or Landrat positions are still able to win (or almost win) in places like Dingolfing-Landau, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, but not because they are SPD candidates, it all depends on local factors and personal popularity.

Greens:
- What do Green local politicians have that their federal elite lacks?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on April 02, 2014, 09:56:20 am
Forsa

42 % CDU/CSU   
23 % SPD
10 % Left      
9 % Greens   
6 % AfD
----
4 % FDP      
6 % Others


INSA

41,0 % CDU/CSU   
24,5 % SPD   
11,0 % Greens
9,0 % Left   
5,0 % AfD
-----
3,0 % FDP   
2,0 % Pirates
4,5 % Others


Saxony state election 31 August 2014

First dimap, second INSA

CDU 45, 43
Left 17, 22
SPD 15, 15
AfD 6, 7
Greens 6, 5
-----
FDP 4, 2
NPD 4, 1
Others 3, 5




Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on April 03, 2014, 06:59:09 pm
infratest dimap
         
41 % CDU/CSU   
26 % SPD   
10 % Greens      
9 % Left       
5 % AfD
----
4 % FDP   
5 % Others



Former East Germany

35 % CDU   
22 % SPD
22  % Left      
6 % AfD   
6 % Greens
-----
2 % FDP   
7 % Others

Former West Germany

42 % CDU/CSU   
27 % SPD   
11 % Greens   
5 % AfD   
5 % Left   
5 % FDP
-----
5 % Others


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on April 05, 2014, 07:01:54 pm
Emnid

CDU/CSU 41 %    
SPD 24 %    
Greens 10 %    
Left 10 %    
AfD 6 %
-----
FDP 3 %    
Others 6 %


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on April 05, 2014, 07:13:22 pm
facebook likes of the main german parties

96.332 AfD
89.502 Pirates
77.611 CDU
69.680 SPD
60.303 Left
48.105 Greens
27.291 FDP
21.524 CSU


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on April 08, 2014, 03:22:37 pm
INSA

41,0% CDU/CSU    
24,0% SPD    
10,0% Greens    
10,0% Left    
6,0% AfD
------
4,0% FDP
2,0% Pirates       
3,0% Others


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on April 10, 2014, 06:20:57 pm
The FDP is fading away. So much, that even articles about their declining are rarley. Here is one of them:

B.Z. (a Berlin daily newspaper)

No recovery, the FDP - how a party disappears
By Michael H. Spreng

Six months ago, she put four federal ministers, today it has disappeared from the public radar - the FDP. The small party that failed in the general election at the five per cent threshold has not recovered even under its new chairman, Christian Lindner.

The FDP languishes in the polls at three percent. In the newspapers and on television, she appeared only rarely like the Loch Ness monster . And here the question arises : Does it exist at all (yet) ? Only Wolfgang Kubicki adorns the talk shows. But he only presents himself, not the FDP.

The FDP must now determine how severe extra-parliamentary opposition, especially for a bourgeois party . In the European elections it is ranked only 7 of the result appear - according to the CDU, CSU, SPD, Greens, "The Left " and AfD . And in the three East German state elections it has nowhere the chance.

The FDP has to date provided no argument that it is still needed . What is your unique selling proposition, what are their issues, what they can do better than the others?

In today's media society only the established and the shrill have a chance to be noticed . And the FDP is not established and shrill they do not want to be .

The FDP can only hope that the CDU / CSU commits serious errors in the grand coalition and gives her back room to be noticed and chosen. This does not happen, then it will gradually disintegrate in the extra-parliamentary opposition.

--------

The FDP is down from 14,6% in the federal elections 2009, to 4,8% in the elections 2013 and now at 3-4% in the surveys. The next elections are also not very helpful. In the European elections the FDP stands in the polls at 3% (down from 11%) and the surveys for the next state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg see them declining towards 2%. After September 2014, the FDP will probably sit in no state government (the last one is of Saxony) anymore and will be represented in only 6 out of 16 state parliaments (early 2015 possibly only in 5 because of the elections in Hamburg).



Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: politicus on April 10, 2014, 06:23:48 pm

The FDP is fading away. So much, that even articles about their declining are rarley. Here is one of them:

B.Z. (a Berlin daily newspaper)

No recovery, the FDP - how a party disappears
By Michael H. Spreng

Six months ago, she put four federal ministers, today it has disappeared from the public radar - the FDP. The small party that failed in the general election at the five per cent threshold has not recovered even under its new chairman, Christian Lindner.

The FDP languishes in the polls at three percent. In the newspapers and on television, she appeared only rarely like the Loch Ness monster . And here the question arises : Does it exist at all (yet) ? Only Wolfgang Kubicki adorns the talk shows. But he only presents himself, not the FDP.

The FDP must now determine how severe extra-parliamentary opposition, especially for a bourgeois party . In the European elections it is ranked only 7 of the result appear - according to the CDU, CSU, SPD, Greens, "The Left " and AfD . And in the three East German state elections it has nowhere the chance.

The FDP has to date provided no argument that it is still needed . What is your unique selling proposition, what are their issues, what they can do better than the others?

In today's media society only the established and the shrill have a chance to be noticed . And the FDP is not established and shrill they do not want to be .

The FDP can only hope that the CDU / CSU commits serious errors in the grand coalition and gives her back room to be noticed and chosen. This does not happen, then it will gradually disintegrate in the extra-parliamentary opposition.

--------

The FDP is down from 14,6% in the federal elections 2009, to 4,8% in the elections 2013 and now at 3-4% in the surveys. The next elections are also not very helpful. In the European elections the FDP stands in the polls at 3% (down from 11%) and the surveys for the next state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg see them declining towards 2%. After September 2014, the FDP will probably sit in no state government (the last one is of Saxony) anymore and will represented in only 6 out of 16 state parliaments (early 2015 possibly only in 5 because of the elections in Hamburg).



It wont be missed by many - left or right.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on April 10, 2014, 06:47:08 pm

The FDP is fading away. So much, that even articles about their declining are rarley. Here is one of them:

B.Z. (a Berlin daily newspaper)

No recovery, the FDP - how a party disappears
By Michael H. Spreng

Six months ago, she put four federal ministers, today it has disappeared from the public radar - the FDP. The small party that failed in the general election at the five per cent threshold has not recovered even under its new chairman, Christian Lindner.

The FDP languishes in the polls at three percent. In the newspapers and on television, she appeared only rarely like the Loch Ness monster . And here the question arises : Does it exist at all (yet) ? Only Wolfgang Kubicki adorns the talk shows. But he only presents himself, not the FDP.

The FDP must now determine how severe extra-parliamentary opposition, especially for a bourgeois party . In the European elections it is ranked only 7 of the result appear - according to the CDU, CSU, SPD, Greens, "The Left " and AfD . And in the three East German state elections it has nowhere the chance.

The FDP has to date provided no argument that it is still needed . What is your unique selling proposition, what are their issues, what they can do better than the others?

In today's media society only the established and the shrill have a chance to be noticed . And the FDP is not established and shrill they do not want to be .

The FDP can only hope that the CDU / CSU commits serious errors in the grand coalition and gives her back room to be noticed and chosen. This does not happen, then it will gradually disintegrate in the extra-parliamentary opposition.

--------

The FDP is down from 14,6% in the federal elections 2009, to 4,8% in the elections 2013 and now at 3-4% in the surveys. The next elections are also not very helpful. In the European elections the FDP stands in the polls at 3% (down from 11%) and the surveys for the next state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg see them declining towards 2%. After September 2014, the FDP will probably sit in no state government (the last one is of Saxony) anymore and will represented in only 6 out of 16 state parliaments (early 2015 possibly only in 5 because of the elections in Hamburg).



It wont be missed by many - left or right.


Yes, the majority do not miss the FDP, but of course there is a need for liberal principles. The question will be whether the other parties can also promote these values​​. The coalition between the CDU, CSU and SPD acts mainly social democratic. The opposition in the parliament is consisting of the even more left-wing Greens and "The Left". With 4.8% for the FDP, 4.7% for AfD and 1% "Free Voters" about 10% of the bourgeois, liberal-conservative voters are not represented in parliament. It is not yet clear how far liberal (former FDP-)voters feel represented by the FDP competitiors. The AfD has currently taken over the nationalliberal voters. The economic liberals currently share on CDU, AfD and still FDP. The Civil rights and rule of law followers share on AfD, Greens, Pirates and FDP.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on April 11, 2014, 03:53:29 am
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF

41% CDU/CSU
25% SPD    
10% Greens       
10% Left
-----    
4% AfD
4% FDP
6% Others


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on April 13, 2014, 04:46:35 am
Emnid

42% CDU/CSU
23% SPD    
10% Left   
9% Greens   
6% AfD
-----
4% FDP   
6% Others


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on April 15, 2014, 07:39:58 am
Forsa for Stern and RTL

41% CDU/CSU
23% SPD   
10% Left   
10% Greens   
6% AfD
-----
4% FDP   
6% Others


INSA for BILD

40,5% CDU/CSU
23,5% SPD   
10,0% Left   
10,0% Greens   
5,5% AfD
5,0% FDP
------
2,0 Pirates 
3,5% Others


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on April 15, 2014, 01:12:57 pm
That's a rarity: the FDP poking over the threshold for once.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on April 15, 2014, 02:35:07 pm
That's a rarity: the FDP poking over the threshold for once.

Yes, that is exceptional, but even if the FDP would reach out in the European elections to the 5%, this electoral year will be very, very hard for them. Because the three state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg are without a chance for the FDP and that will determine its national image. But there is still room for the party, particularly in West Germany. Much will depend on the development of the AfD. It is pretty sure that the AfD will be ahead of the FDP at the european elections and the three state elections. But the question is whether the AfD survive their early years without Impolosion. It is currently still completely unclear for the next years whether both parties will be above or below 5%, or only one of the two and if so, which.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on April 16, 2014, 09:20:19 am
Allensbach for FAZ

40,0% CDU/CSU
26,5% SPD
11.0% Greens   
8,0% Left     
5,0% AfD
-----
4,5% FDP   
5% Others

GMS

41% CDU/CSU
24% SPD
10% Greens   
10% Left     
6% AfD
-----
4% FDP
2% Pirates
1% Free Voters   
2% Others


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on April 16, 2014, 11:19:04 am
I haven t seen this thread, my bad!

Seriouly, who will miss the FDP?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: EPG on April 16, 2014, 01:15:52 pm
The FDP must hope the CDU/CSU drops from their current elevated support level, which will happen sooner or later. Not everyone there will want the AfD, if it's even around.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on April 17, 2014, 10:40:40 am
I don't really know. Short of raising taxes, Merkel has capitulated on literally every economic issue the FDP could attack her on from the right, and still the FDP can't take advantage. Worse, they can't really act as a right-wing protest vote sponge because of the AfD.

I don't think the FDP is quite at PASOK level terminal decline, but unless it carves out a niche it'll be pretty much gone.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on April 17, 2014, 04:14:40 pm
I doubt that the FDP will manage to make a comeback as long as the younger* and more aggressive competition in the form of the AfD is around.

(Little known fun fact: The current press secretary of the AfD, Christian Lüth, worked as a chief of staff for a FDP Bundestag member until the FDP was obliterated at the polls last year. Some have already jumped the ship. :P )

* figuratively speaking, the individual members of the AfD leadership are actually not of a younger age than the FDP leadership's


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: EPG on April 18, 2014, 06:48:39 am
All the FDP really need is either:
a. the AfD to drift away in the same manner as the Pirates, or
b. an extra 0.2% on top of their 2013 result.

Certainly, I would be on the FDP to return to the Bundestag as the grand coalition's centrist-to-centre-left nature becomes evident in deeds rather than words - though as of right now, I'd expect the AfD to do better.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on April 18, 2014, 08:12:25 am
All the FDP really need is either:
a. the AfD to drift away in the same manner as the Pirates, or
b. an extra 0.2% on top of their 2013 result.

Certainly, I would be on the FDP to return to the Bundestag as the grand coalition's centrist-to-centre-left nature becomes evident in deeds rather than words - though as of right now, I'd expect the AfD to do better.

The FDP has made ​​the mistake not to develop in the direction of a dutch VVD or danish Venstre (perhaps with a soft populist touch). This option is now lost due to the AfD (as this is their "left-wing"). The left path is blocked, because the political landscape left of center is overcrowded: SPD, Greens, Left, Pirates there's no space. That leaves them only to their old course and the hope that voters who are disappointed with the kind of socialdemocratic acting of the CDU in the grand coalition, because they are economic liberal but pro-European leave the CDU and back the FDP again. On the other hand, the future development of the AfD is still completely open. Even if they should be successfully four times this year (Europe, Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg) what is not completly sure yet, no one knows whether they can keep their fractions togehter over the years and make reasonable working or falling out and produce scandals. The AFD currently has the better cards, but also the FDP still some substance. If both remain in the game until/after the next general elections it gets interesting, because a CDU without Merkel will face real problems and will give both (FDP and AfD) futher options. But this is a long way till then. ;)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on April 20, 2014, 09:21:00 am
Emnid

40% CDU/CSU
25% SPD   
10% Greens
9% Left     
6% AfD
-----
4% FDP   
6% Others


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on April 20, 2014, 11:12:48 am
facebook likes of the main german parties

97.778 AfD
89.429 Pirates
77.830 CDU
70.311 SPD
63.528 Left
48.424 Greens
27.455 FDP
21.670 CSU


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on April 23, 2014, 04:34:10 am
facebook likes of the main german parties

97.778 AfD
89.429 Pirates
77.830 CDU
70.311 SPD
63.528 Left
48.424 Greens
27.455 FDP
21.670 CSU
Are you in fact Tender Branson in disguise ?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on April 23, 2014, 03:31:46 pm
facebook likes of the main german parties

97.778 AfD
89.429 Pirates
77.830 CDU
70.311 SPD
63.528 Left
48.424 Greens
27.455 FDP
21.670 CSU
Are you in fact Tender Branson in disguise ?

If you want me to be ... ;)





Forsa for RTL and Stern

41% CDU/CSU
24% SPD   
10% Greens
10% Left     
5% AfD
-----
4% FDP   
6% Others


Insa for BILD

41,0% CDU/CSU
24,5% SPD   
10,5% Greens
9,0% Left     
5,0% AfD
-----
4,5% FDP
2,0% Pirates   
3,5% Others


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on April 24, 2014, 05:36:51 pm
Infratest dimap for ARD

41%CDU/CSU
25%SPD
10% Greens
10% Left
5% AfD
----
4%FDP
5% Others






Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on April 25, 2014, 11:27:14 am
This survey is for the European elections, but their results make inferences about the upcoming state elections. With 7% for the AFD in the german average, they are so in Saxony at about 10% and in Thuringia and Brandenburg at 7-9% and thus have excellent starting conditions for the forthcoming state elections this year. The FDP with 4% in the German average is thus lie in Brandenburg and Thuringia at about 2%. In Saxony the FDP is actually stronger (they are there clearly more conservative than the national party) but have there tough competition from (there also significantly more conservative) CDU and the AfD. With the state of today it looks like any good year for the FDP, the AfD on the other hand has all the chances (and of course risks).

INSA for FocusOnline

CDU/CSU 36%
SPD 28%
Greens 11%
Left 9%
AfD 7%
FDP 4%
Others 5%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on April 25, 2014, 12:31:06 pm
Why do you think that you can infer more from European election polls than from federal election polls about state elections? To me that seems counter-intuitive. In European election polls the AfD is consistently polling ca. 1-2% more than in federal election polls.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on April 25, 2014, 02:09:24 pm
Why do you think that you can infer more from European election polls than from federal election polls about state elections? To me that seems counter-intuitive. In European election polls the AfD is consistently polling ca. 1-2% more than in federal election polls.

I can think of three reasons:

* Voters like Merkel, but not her party. Therefore, they're going to swing against the CDU without the risk of losing her. That includes the right flank which is attracted to AfD.

* The AfD's Eurosceptic message is more attractive than its views on running the country federally (see: UKIP).

* People voting in these elections are less pragmatic and more idealogical than the general election crowd,


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on April 25, 2014, 02:16:31 pm
Why do you think that you can infer more from European election polls than from federal election polls about state elections? To me that seems counter-intuitive. In European election polls the AfD is consistently polling ca. 1-2% more than in federal election polls.

Of course you're right that in order to discuss the possible results of the elections at the state level, the federal polls are actually more suitable. However, this is about the momentum and the electoral calendar. If the results of the AfD in these three states should be particularly strong and the results of the FDP should be particularly weak there, so that will also influence media coverage and voter behavior in this direction. The first state election is in Saxony. Should there the AfD reach almost 10% for the EP, it will help her to be perceived as a strong force in the eyes of the media and therefore of the voters. This will affect voters who otherwise might have the worry of wasting their vote (5% threshold). Also, voters who want to protest against the established media and parties, plus conservative FDP voters who do not want to waste their vote, same for NPD, and maybe some who just wants to be with the winning team. If saxonian results are strong for AfD, this of course also has an effect on the neighboring federal states of Thuringia and Brandenburg and their elections a few weeks later. Because the main reason for the founding of the AfD was the Euro-crisis and because of (though narrow) data available from the recent federal election, the Hessian state election and four Bavarian municipal elections, which shows that the AfD is the more successful, the higher the administrative level of the election is I would currently estimate that one can derive as follows: 7% in the EP polls means 5,5% in the federal elections, 4,25% in national average of the state level elections and a bit less than 3% on the muncipal level. As Saxony is the AfD stronghold 7% for the EP nationwide means about 10% there and this should be 7% on the state level. That could give the AfD in Thuringia and Brandenburg (where their level of organsisation is weaker) a little boost to get above the 5% threshold. Because of these potential chain reactions i think we can take the EP survey for predictions about the three state elections.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on April 25, 2014, 03:36:16 pm
Why do you think that you can infer more from European election polls than from federal election polls about state elections? To me that seems counter-intuitive. In European election polls the AfD is consistently polling ca. 1-2% more than in federal election polls.

I can think of three reasons:

* Voters like Merkel, but not her party. Therefore, they're going to swing against the CDU without the risk of losing her. That includes the right flank which is attracted to AfD.

* The AfD's Eurosceptic message is more attractive than its views on running the country federally (see: UKIP).

* People voting in these elections are less pragmatic and more idealogical than the general election crowd,


The three states differ in their initial position. Saxony is an absolute stronghold of the CDU. The CDU here depends a little less of Merkel. The country has formed a strong regional identity and is something like the East German Bavaria. Significantly more identity conscious, more patriotic, less politcally correct and more conservative than other parts of Germany. The CDU has ruled since the first free elections and is unchallenged. Both the CDU and FDP are clearly to the right of their federal parties. Nevertheless, there was still room for the far-right NPD which has been successful in the last two last elections. But you're right insofar as the bourgeois voters, unlike in the general election, are without worrying about loss of power of the CDU. The CDU will govern Saxony in any case, even after the elections. Either with majority, or with the SPD or the Greens (most likely not with the AfD because they are "too new"  and the CDU has no interest in helping them establish).

Brandenburg is the total opposite of Saxony for the CDU. Here they are traditionally weak and divided. This state is a stronghold of the SPD and The Left  and it is quite certain that the SPD will win again. The result of the CDU will likely depend on whether there is a power perspective, if the SPD offers them a coalition possibility. For two legislative sessions the far-right DVU had been above 5% (the party later merged with the NPD). There is a potential for protest and right-wing voters, which the AfD could absorbe. The likely AfD Frontrunner Alexander Gauland is fairly well known in Brandenburg, because he was the editor of one of the two major newspapers in the country and is a more or less famous conservative publicist even nationwide.

In Thuringia CDU is since 1990 continuously the ruling party, but in a bit weaker position than in Saxony. The current CDU/SPD coalition is characterized by several small scandals. The main change in the countries politics is that the SPD, for the first time ever (!), agrees a coalition with "The Left ", even if the Left should get more votes than the SPD. So there is a clear option for a red- dark red alliance. The CDU would therefore prefer to form a coalition with the Greens. The current surveys are , however, very uncertain for such a black-green coalition Cabinet. The only chance to prevent a red- dark red coalition is a AfD into parliament, then there is only the possibility of continuing the grand coalition under the leadership of the CDU. This could be an argument for tactical voters and help the AfD. The AfD has indeed achieved here in the Bundestag elections the second best result, but its thuringian organisation is weak, divided and without strong and well kown candidates and therefore need additional external effects as succsessful EP elections, success in Saxony and tactical arguments.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on April 29, 2014, 06:55:15 am

INSA

41,5% CDU/CSU   
24,0% SPD   
10,0% Greens   
9,0% Left   
5,5% AfD
------
4,5% FDP
2,0% Pirates       
3,5% Others



Emnid

41% CDU/CSU   
24% SPD   
10% Greens   
10% Left   
5% AfD
------
4% FDP       
6% Others



Forsa

41% CDU/CSU   
24% SPD   
10% Greens   
9% Left   
6,0% AfD
------
4,0% FDP     
6% Others


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: njwes on April 29, 2014, 04:20:19 pm
^The consistency between those polls is pretty amazing! Do German pollsters know something American ones don't?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on April 29, 2014, 07:54:11 pm
^The consistency between those polls is pretty amazing! Do German pollsters know something American ones don't?

Yes, this is truly a remarkable equality of results. Even Forsa, which does the surveys for RTL and Stern for weeks not out of line. Forsa, whose boss Güllner, a Social Democrat, is known for strong opinions and really not being averse to disputes. He loathed the left wing of the SPD, the Greens and the AfD at the same time. With the AfD leader Lucke he stood up in the courts, about the Greens, he wrote a scathing book and the SPD will not give him any more orders. Forsas results are usually known to always stand out a little, in order to tell and sell a new story almost every week, but since the recent federeal elections all numbers from all polling institutes stayed nearly the same.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on April 29, 2014, 08:28:07 pm
The facebook likes of the major German parties. First, because I like to be Tender Branson in disguise for Mr Bear, King of Animals, and secondly, because we have the first party with more than 100,000 likes.

100.007 AfD
89.341 Pirates
77.894 CDU
70.505 SPD
66.954 Left
48.639 Greens
27.634 FDP
21.730 CSU





Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on April 30, 2014, 08:33:13 am
Saxony state election 31 August 2014

CDU 43%
Left 18%
SPD 16%
AfD 6%
Greens 6%
-----
NPD 4%
FDP 4%
Others 3%

Saxony European elections

CDU 41%
SPD 18%
Left 17%
AfD 8%
Greens 7%
FDP 2%
Others 7%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on May 01, 2014, 03:13:28 am
(Image Link)

Are you satisfied with:

(Image Link)

Are you satisfied with the government? very satisfied, satisfied, less satisfied, not at all

(Image Link)

(Image Link)

Your personal taxation: to high, appropriate, to low, do not pay taxes

(Image Link)



Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on May 01, 2014, 03:59:50 am
The facebook likes of the major German parties. First, because I like to be Tender Branson in disguise for Mr Bear, King of Animals, and secondly, because we have the first party with more than 100,000 likes.

100.007 AfD
89.341 Pirates
77.894 CDU
70.505 SPD
66.954 Left
48.639 Greens
27.634 FDP
21.730 CSU





So, AfD and Pirates have more Facebook likes than they have party members, and CDU, SPD, Greens, FDP, and CSU have more party members than they have Facebook likes.

(Coincidentally, the Left has about the same number of likes as they have members, although I strongly suspect that both groups aren't remotely identical.)

If anything, it could tell something about the structure of a party's supporter base and their level of commitment. While AfD and Pirate supporters are more likely to publicly declare their support for their party on the Web, they're also more unlikely to actually engage in real-life political activities. This leads to a phenomenon which I would describe as "desk activists". People who are posting loads of stuff on the Web from their home or at work, but lack the will or the interest to go to party events or participate in more "active activities".

Secondly, it also reflects the form of communication AfD and Pirates conduct as newer, and less established political parties. Facebook is probably used as a cheaper and easyily managable  alternative to other channels of communication which the more established parties regularly use, but AfD and Pirates don't (yet) possess because of a lack of ressources.

And thirdly, it's also a matter of age structure and how familiar with the Internet someone's base is. Pirate supporters are obviously much younger and much more Web-orentied than CSU supporters.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on May 01, 2014, 05:48:43 am
The facebook likes of the major German parties. First, because I like to be Tender Branson in disguise for Mr Bear, King of Animals, and secondly, because we have the first party with more than 100,000 likes.

100.007 AfD
89.341 Pirates
77.894 CDU
70.505 SPD
66.954 Left
48.639 Greens
27.634 FDP
21.730 CSU





So, AfD and Pirates have more Facebook likes than they have party members, and CDU, SPD, Greens, FDP, and CSU have more party members than they have Facebook likes.

(Coincidentally, the Left has about the same number of likes as they have members, although I strongly suspect that both groups aren't remotely identical.)

If anything, it could tell something about the structure of a party's supporter base and their level of commitment. While AfD and Pirate supporters are more likely to publicly declare their support for their party on the Web, they're also more unlikely to actually engage in real-life political activities. This leads to a phenomenon which I would describe as "desk activists". People who are posting loads of stuff on the Web from their home or at work, but lack the will or the interest to go to party events or participate in more "active activities".

Secondly, it also reflects the form of communication AfD and Pirates conduct as newer, and less established political parties. Facebook is probably used as a cheaper and easyily managable  alternative to other channels of communication which the more established parties regularly use, but AfD and Pirates don't (yet) possess because of a lack of ressources.

And thirdly, it's also a matter of age structure and how familiar with the Internet someone's base is. Pirate supporters are obviously much younger and much more Web-orentied than CSU supporters.


The main surprise that when I first saw them was the Greens. I assumed they would have a younger, savvy base that competes with the Pirates. I suppose that shows how much the German Greens have become part of the furniture.

Also this thread (and Enno's posts) post scare me. Because on my CV it says I can speak German "well". And I just realised I literally cannot understand a single word on those opinion polls above :O I only stopped learning two years ago as well.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on May 01, 2014, 08:41:56 am
The main surprise that when I first saw them was the Greens. I assumed they would have a younger, savvy base that competes with the Pirates. I suppose that shows how much the German Greens have become part of the furniture.

The average age of party members (not voters) in Germany, according to numbers on Wikipedia:

Left: 60

CDU, CSU & SPD: 59

FDP: 53

AfD: 51

Greens: 48

Pirates: 39

NPD: 37


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on May 01, 2014, 08:47:45 am
And regarding Facebook, I would like to add that you're not necessarily a supporter of a party if you "like" it on FB.

I know from personal experience, that a lot of the active "fans" on the Green party profile are in fact not Green supporters, but AfD trolls. Don't know whether this means in return that a lot of the active AfD profile fans are in fact anti-AfD trolls and this contributes to the high number of "likes" for the AfD on Facebook.

Liking a profile enables you to post stuff there. So if you want to post on a certain party profile that this party sucks you need to "like" them.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on May 01, 2014, 02:25:38 pm

Nobody cares about the views of FDP supporters anymore. :(


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on May 05, 2014, 10:37:07 am
Berlin state election

Forsa

CDU 30%
SPD 23%
Greens 16%
Left 15%
AfD 5%
Pirates 5%
----
Others 6%

Berlin federal election

Forsa

CDU 31%
SPD 22%
Left 19%
Greens 13%
AfD 5%
---
Pirates 3%
FDP 3%
Others 4%


---------------

Emnid

CDU/CSU 40%
SPD 25%
Greens 10%
Left 10%
AfD 5%
---
FDP 4%
Others 6%

--------

INSA

CDU/CSU 41%
SPD 25%
Greens 11%
Left 9%
AfD 5%
---
FDP 3%
Pirates 2%
Others 4%






Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on May 11, 2014, 11:31:43 am
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state elections

infratest dimap

CDU 34%
SPD 29%
Left 20%
Greens 5%
-------
AfD 4%
NPD 3%
FDP 2%
Others 3%

Nordrhein-Westfalen state elections

infratest dimap

SPD 37%
CDU 36%
Greens 10%
FDP 5%
Left 5%
-------
AfD 3%
Pirates 2%
Others 2%

Rheinland-Pfalz state elections

infratest dimap

CDU 41%
SPD 31%
Greens 11%
--------
AfD 4%
Linke 4%
FDP 3%
Others 6%

Hamburg state elections

mafo

SPD 38,5%
CDU 22,6%
Greens 13,7%
Left 7,8%
AfD 5,8%
-------------
FDP 2,9%
Others 8,7%

Most important is the poll for state elections in Hamburg, because they are the next ones after Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia.



Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: MaxQue on May 11, 2014, 03:31:39 pm
All of them sounds like SPD-Green, but Mecklenburg-Vorpommern which would be SPD-Left (SPD prefers being senior to Left than junior to CDU).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on May 13, 2014, 05:29:28 pm
In its heartland Baden-Württemberg, which is a liberal stronghold for some 200 years, the FDP melts at 3% and AfD took all of FDPs right-wing. Of course, battle is not over yet, but its AfD momentum. It will be very interesting to compare the european results on german state level.

Baden-Württemberg state elections

infratest dimap for SWR

CDU 41%
Greens 21%
SPD 20%
AfD 6%
----------
FDP 3%
Others 9 %



Germany federal elections

GMS

CDU 41%
SPD 25%%
Greens 11%
Left 9%
AfD 5%
----------
FDP 4%
Others 5%


INSA

CDU 40.0%
SPD 23,5%%
Greens 11,0%
Left 10,0%
AfD 5,5%
----------
FDP 4,0%
Others 6%





Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on May 14, 2014, 05:08:32 am
Thuringia state level

CDU 36%
Left 28%
SPD 19%
Greens 5%
---------
AfD 4%
NPD 3%
FDP 2%
Others 3%

Heavy internal conflicts in the thuringian AfD. They will need boost by successes in Europe and Saxony. Thuringian FDP is dead. The Greens are in danger to fall below the thershold, but should in the end pass. As there is now a clear option for a Left/SPD coalition, it will probably help AfD gaining tactical voters to prevent "red-red". The CDU should be interested in having both, Greens and AfD into parliament, as to still be in government after the elections.




Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on May 14, 2014, 06:23:25 am
Forsa

CDU 40%
SPD 24%%
Greens 10%
Left 10%
AfD 6%
----------
FDP 4%
Others 6%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on May 14, 2014, 12:15:31 pm
Allensbach

CDU 39,5%
SPD 26,0%%
Greens 10,5%
Left 8,0%
AfD 5,5%
FDP 5,0%
--------------
Others 5,5%




Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on May 15, 2014, 05:31:24 am
Saarland state elections

infratest

CDU 37%
SPD 34%
Left 13%
AfD 5%
Greens 5%
--------------
Pirates 2%
Others 4%*

*Which means FDP among "Others" now.



Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: TJ in Oregon on May 15, 2014, 09:11:51 pm
Why is Die Linke so strong in Saarland? Also why is the SPD so strong there compared to the rest of southwestern Germany? Is it really industrial?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on May 15, 2014, 11:59:27 pm
Why is Die Linke so strong in Saarland? Also why is the SPD so strong there compared to the rest of southwestern Germany? Is it really industrial?

"The Left " is a merger of the former communist SED (the party of the GDR regime), which later changed its name to PDS and the WASG. The PDS never had a chance in West Germany. This changed after the then Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) undertook the necessary welfare state reforms. Some SPD-lefties, trade unionists and far leftists formed a new party: the WASG. Even this was not particularly successful until they made Oskar Lafontaine (former SPD chairman and Schröder-hostile, former Finance Minister and FORMER PRIME MINISTER OF SAARLAND) as its chairman and united with PDS to "The Left". That's why the "The Left" in Saarland is relatively strong. However, in the Saarland decrease the numbers for " The Left". The PDS had 0.8% in 1999 and 2.3% in 2004 . The new "The Left" in 2009 gained 21.3% and 16.1% in 2012 . Now the polls say 13%, and with the anticipated resignation of Lafontaine it will be below 10%.
Actually, the Catholic Saarland is a CDU stronghold. CDU ruled until 1980 and since 1999. The strength of the SPD is because of the industrial workers, the structural change and was the person Lafontaine. It is expected that SPD will try to work with "The Left" after Lafontaines resignation, if the parties together will gain a majority. The Greens are quite weak here but could maybe help such a coalition. CDU is relatively far to the left and the FDP barely existent, which means space  for AfD.



Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on May 16, 2014, 10:41:18 am
infratest dimap

39% CDU/CSU
26% SPD
11% Greens
9% Left
6% AfD
-----------
4% FDP
5% Others


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on May 17, 2014, 05:35:39 pm
Emnid

CDU/CSU 39%
SPD 25%
Greens 10%
Left 10%
AfD 6%
FDP 5%
---------------
Others 5%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on May 17, 2014, 11:00:13 pm
facebook likes

AfD 109.556
(CDU/CSU) 100.797
Pirates 89.459
Left 79.881
CDU 78.850
SPD 71.248
Greens 50.284
FDP 28.020
CSU 21.947


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: republicanbayer on May 18, 2014, 07:09:21 am
FW are polling surprisingly weak in Bavaria. In the latest bavarian poll for the EP election they're only at 3%, which makes it almost impossible to win two seats.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on May 18, 2014, 07:29:21 am
FW are polling surprisingly weak in Bavaria. In the latest bavarian poll for the EP election they're only at 3%, which makes it almost impossible to win two seats.

I have already posted it in the EP thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=170930.msg4163377#msg4163377

Regarding the FW, it is not that surprising. The higher the administrative level of the election, the lower their conferral by the voters and thus lower their election results. The Free Voters lack the unique selling point. Why should one vote FW in the EU elections? I guess they get 4-5% in Bavaria and 1.5 in Germany.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on May 21, 2014, 09:59:14 am
Forsa

CDU/CSU 40 %
SPD 24 %
Greens 10 %
Left 10 %
AfD 6 %
----------------
FDP 4%
Others 6 %


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Enno von Loewenstern on May 25, 2014, 07:57:19 am
Emnid

CDU/CSU 39%
SPD 24 %
Greens 10 %
Left 10 %
AfD 6 %
FDP 5%
----------------
Others 6%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on May 25, 2014, 04:26:32 pm
Results of the Tempelhof Airport referendum in Berlin:

Bill drafted by initiators of the referendum (THF 100%)
Yes 64.4%
No 35.6%

Alternate bill drafted by the Berlin state government
Yes 40.6%
No 59.4%

The former airport is currently used as a huge city park. The referendum dealt with the question whether parts of the former airport's area should be used to build appartments on it, resulting in a reduction of the park's area.

According to the THF 100% bill everything should stay as it is now (no appartment buildungs), and according to the state government bill the appartments should be build.

At least in part, the referendum also had become a vote of (no) confidence on Berlin mayor Klaus Wowereit who currently has a 70% disapproval rating or something like that.

Yesterday, I had also seen an editorial on SPIEGEL ONLINE which basically argued that building the appartments would essentially be a good idea, but given the continued proof of the Wowereit administration's general incompetence this government couldn't be trusted with implementing a project of such magnitude properly. So, SPIEGEL endorsed the THF 100% bill on the grounds that it would effectively postpone the building project until such time Wowereit is not in office any longer.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on May 25, 2014, 04:49:32 pm
Btw, all boroughs of Berlin voted Yes/No on the Tempelhof referendum, except Marzahn-Hellersdorf where voters managed to approve of both bills... although the THF 100% bill ultimately won more votes than the state governmen's bill.

"THF 100%"
Yes 57.5%
No 42.5%

State government
Yes 51.5%
No 48.5%



And the clearest message came - as usual - from the borough of Friedrichhain-Kreuzberg:

"THF 100%"
Yes 77.0%
No 23.0%

State government
Yes 26.8%
No 73.2%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on June 05, 2014, 01:21:52 pm
Thought I could post this poll because it's funny:

Brandenburg state election (Sept. 14) - Infratest dimap poll for RBB

30% SPD [-3]
28% CDU [+8]
23% Left [-4]
  6% Greens [nc]
  6% AfD [+6]
  0% FDP [-7]
  7% Others

The FDP is not even listed among "others" anymore, it's explicitely shown at 0% ... :P

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/brandenburg.htm


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on June 27, 2014, 01:17:12 pm
Since nobody is posting here anymore, just a quick poll average (7 different polls released in the last week):

39.6% CDU/CSU (-1.9%)
24.7% SPD (-1.0%)
10.7% Greens (+2.3%)
  8.7% Left (+0.1%)
  6.3% AfD (+1.6%)
  3.7% FDP (-1.1%)
  6.3% Others (no change)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: solarstorm on June 27, 2014, 01:56:04 pm
"The Left " is a merger of the former communist SED (the party of the GDR regime), which later changed its name to PDS and the WASG.

Nope. The WASG was an autonomous party, which didn't have its roots in the PDS.

This changed after the then Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) undertook the necessary provably dispensable welfare state reforms.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: politicus on June 27, 2014, 08:35:14 pm
"The Left " is a merger of the former communist SED (the party of the GDR regime), which later changed its name to PDS, and the WASG.

Nope. The WASG was an autonomous party, which didn't have its roots in the PDS.


You seem to have very bad reading comprehension solarstorm. Enno writes that it was a merger of PDS and WASG.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on July 03, 2014, 04:54:44 pm
July 3, 2014: The Bundestag passes the first minmum wage law in German history.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on July 05, 2014, 04:18:43 pm


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on July 05, 2014, 05:59:07 pm

But the authorites didn't manage to find any meth at his home during their search! Granted, he could have flushed it down the toilet beforehand, just like he did with his career.

WWWWD (What would Walter White do?)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on July 11, 2014, 06:58:00 am
New Saxony (August 31) state election poll (Infratest dimap for MDR):

(Image Link)

Gov. Tillich (CDU) has the highest approval rating of all politicians (71-19):

(Image Link)

The current government is CDU-FDP, but voters prefer CDU-SPD next time:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on July 11, 2014, 07:04:35 am
New Thuringia (September 14) state election poll (INSA for the Thüringische Landeszeitung):

33% CDU
25% Left
18% SPD
  7% AfD
  6% Greens
  3% FDP
  2% Pirates
  2% FW
  4% Others

The current government is CDU-SPD.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on July 17, 2014, 01:09:42 am
New Thuringia (September 14) state election poll by Infratest dimap for MDR:

(Image Link)

Direct vote for Governor:

(Image Link)

Job approval ratings of frontrunners:

(Image Link)

Preferred coalition after the election (Would this coalition be good or bad for Thüringen ?":

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on August 06, 2014, 11:13:14 am
Logging in specifically to share this...

Desperate times, desperate measures.

(Image Link)

This is a real FDP campaign poster from Brandenburg. For once, a political poster that does not lie.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 06, 2014, 11:32:18 am
:D


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on August 08, 2014, 07:40:04 am
Does reverse psychology work in political campaigns??


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Vosem on August 08, 2014, 08:53:35 am
No sow needs the FDP? As in female pig? I don't get it.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on August 08, 2014, 09:09:20 am
No sow needs the FDP? As in female pig? I don't get it.

You cannot translate this literally into English. It's a German thing to say, like in "Nobody needs me ! I might as well go and jump off a bridge ..." with a dose of frustration.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on August 10, 2014, 03:53:37 am
It's basically saying "the FDP is superfluous".

For the most part, their campaign is trying to troll the media.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on August 11, 2014, 08:15:00 am
3 INSA state election polls for the BILD-tabloid:

Saxony state election (August 31)

40% CDU (nc)
19% Left (-2)
14% SPD (+4)
  6% AfD (+6)
  6% Greens (nc)
  5% FDP (-5)
  4% NPD (-2)
  6% Others

Brandenburg state election (September 14)

34% SPD (+1)
25% CDU (+5)
22% Left (-5)
  5% AfD (+5)
  5% Greens (-1)
  3% FDP (-4)
  6% Others

Thuringia state election (September 14)

34% CDU (+3)
26% Left (-1)
19% SPD (nc)
  6% Greens (nc)
  5% AfD (+5)
  4% FDP (-4)
  6% Others


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on August 22, 2014, 08:22:43 am
The Saxony state election is next Sunday and there are 2 new polls from Infratest dimap and FGW, both of which have the Nazis and the AFD gaining in the last weeks:

Infratest dimap

40.0% CDU
19.0% Left
14.0% SPD
  7.0% AfD
  6.5% Greens
  5.0% NPD
  3.5% FDP
  5.0% Others

FGW

39% CDU
20% Left
15% SPD
  7% AfD
  6% Greens
  5% NPD
  3% FDP
  5% Others

The most preferred coalition after the election is CDU-SPD (currently it's CDU-FDP):

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on August 24, 2014, 06:51:24 pm
In Saxony, if FDP falls below 5%, will CDU go for a CDU-AfD alliance or will we have the CDU-SPD just like everywhere else.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on August 24, 2014, 07:03:19 pm
In Saxony, if FDP falls below 5%, will CDU go for a CDU-AfD alliance or will we have the CDU-SPD just like everywhere else.

I assume CDU-SPD. AfD probably prefers to be outside for now.

The wiki page for this election has a summary of potential coalitions, in slightly broken English.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on August 25, 2014, 02:28:23 am
In Saxony, if FDP falls below 5%, will CDU go for a CDU-AfD alliance or will we have the CDU-SPD just like everywhere else.

No CDU-AfD coalition:

Quote
"Ich glaube nicht, dass das ein Koalitionspartner für uns sein könnte, der eine verantwortungsvolle Regierungsarbeit für dieses Land und diese Menschen machen könnte", sagt Tillich über die Alternative für Deutschland, die zum ersten Mal bei einer Landtagswahl in Sachsen antritt.

http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/wahlkampf-sachsen-101.html

"I don't think that this is a coalition partner for us, which is able to do responsible government work for this state and its people." - Governor Tillich (CDU)

...

The most likely options are CDU-SPD or CDU-Greens (if they have enough seats).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on August 25, 2014, 08:49:01 am
In Saxony, if FDP falls below 5%, will CDU go for a CDU-AfD alliance or will we have the CDU-SPD just like everywhere else.

I assume CDU-SPD. AfD probably prefers to be outside for now.

The wiki page for this election has a summary of potential coalitions, in slightly broken English.

Make sense.  My understanding is that local CDU has not ruled it out yet.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on August 26, 2014, 03:50:01 am
Breaking: Three-term Berlin mayor Klaus Wowereit intends to resign on December 11.

Thank god, I say. The SPD is probably pretty relieved too to get rid of Berlin's most unpopular politician and Germany's most unpopular state premier.

The most likely successor for Wowereit at this point seems to be SPD state chairman Jan Stöß (who would in fact be Berlin's second openly gay mayor :P ).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on August 26, 2014, 04:50:27 am
Breaking: Three-term Berlin mayor Klaus Wowereit intends to resign on December 11.

Thank god, I say. The SPD is probably pretty relieved too to get rid of Berlin's most unpopular politician and Germany's most unpopular state premier.
Will Berlin stop bieng sexy then ? What's for sure is that it's not gonna stop being "arm"...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: mountvernon on August 26, 2014, 07:45:53 am
I've noticed that, ever since the Wall came down, the CDU has been unusually strong in Saxony and the SPD in Brandenburg.  Is that solely because of the early popularity of Kurt Biedenkopf and Manfred Stolpe, respectively?  I know that ideological voting is weak in the former DDR.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on August 26, 2014, 07:48:58 am
This popularity also - by electoral success - influenced - where the moderate/ centrist politicians went to (oversimplificiation garanteed).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: mountvernon on August 26, 2014, 08:01:35 am
So a bit of a path dependence effect?  Early success by those parties encouraged ambitious politicians to sign up with them. 

Are there any significant demographic differences between Saxony and Brandenburg? I know Saxony has become the most prosperous new Land, but that occurred after the CDU rose to power, not before.  Brandenburg has some gritty industrial towns near the Polish border (Left strongholds, I gather) but also some prosperous suburbs of Berlin.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on August 26, 2014, 08:32:16 am
SPIEGEL ONLINE has a Best of Wowereit gallery of which I'll post a Best Of. Sums up his mayorship pretty well... :P

(Image Link)

(Image Link)

(Image Link)

(Image Link)




Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on August 26, 2014, 11:28:17 am
Quote
Are there any significant demographic differences between Saxony and Brandenburg? I know Saxony has become the most prosperous new Land, but that occurred after the CDU rose to power, not before.  Brandenburg has some gritty industrial towns near the Polish border (Left strongholds, I gather) but also some prosperous suburbs of Berlin.
Path dependency is clearly a big factor. Another may be, that the CDU in Saxony has been successfully exploiting a strong regional identity that influences political culture, that is not so much the case in the other East German Länder. And of course, the big brain drain of the nineties and processes of deurbanisation did shape the political landscape, too. But of course, this also is true for the other states.
Actually, the North-South-Gradient of voting CDU/(DSU) vs. SPD/PDS and now Linke was already visible in the 1990 Volkskammer election, where there was no Biedenkopf, of course. One basic thing, often forgotten, is, that the south of the GDR (Saxony, Thuringia, district of Halle) has been industrialised and prosperous before 1945 and the north not so much, despite Berlin, Magdeburg and some industry here and there in Brandenburg. Industrial policy of the GDR has always been to decrease those differences, so the north became more industrial (so also integrating the Neusiedler/expatriates into the system), as became agriculture as a whole, while the south saw more lack of investment and forms of decay (well, a hard word). So political messages to rebuild a former glory of economic strength and a the bürgerliche Tradition were more appealing there, obviously.

Demographically it is always difficult to measure, where those differences of industrialisation come from. In general one would think, that Saxony's three big cities that nowadays make up one third of the population should shift it more to the left, but Dresden has it's Residenzstadt tradition, that makes it more conservative (they now after the May muncipal election have a left majority for the first time in their assembly after 1990), Leipzig has its tradition as the city of the Bürgertum, merchants, culture etc. Of course, it was also a highly industrialised town, but the working class here was highly disillusioned by what the GDR had made of their town and what capitalism and democracy did to it and their lives, after, which also seems to be the case in Chemnitz.

If you look at the smaller towns, one can say that the "typical industrial town" in Saxony has been older (with a medieval/early modern core) and smaller than in Brandenburg. Where this is not the case, like in Riesa and Gröditz, you got relatively strong results for the left parties.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on August 26, 2014, 04:27:40 pm
Some "grand" coalition that would be in Sachsen.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on August 27, 2014, 03:57:48 am
Some "grand" coalition that would be in Sachsen.
The SPD will probably have at least more grandezza than their 9,8 percent of 2004. Some predictions and thoughts of one who is fleeing from Saxony for personal economic reasons. ;-)

CDU: 38% [40,2% in 2009]

The CDU will clearly lose There is some CDU fatigue going on and the Merkel style campaign of promoting prime minister Stanislaw Tillich, who is quite popular for not publicly bothering with things like politics or holding an opinion, does not seem to work too good for them. They have now been ruling the state for 24 years and are increasingly acting like they would own it. Problems are increasing steadily, too. There is a lack of investment into kindergardens, schools, university, infrastructure despite building new big roads that nobody needs. Now, that the election is near they are doing action programs to look as they could fill all the holes, they neglected over the past five years. That does not seem to convincing. Governing together with the most incompetent and insolent FDP state party (which means something probably does not help, too.
The other part of their strategy were - also merkelesque - attempts of asymmetrical demobilisation, also by playing dirty tricks like holding the election at the end of the summer vacation, so that families with children are in holiday during the campaign (old people will vote CDU anyway) and also some gerrymandering to win all constituencies (overhang seats are not fully compensated in the Saxonian electoral law). But the key part of merkelesque strategy - doing a personal feel-good campaign without proclaiming any content of policies and strategies how to deal with the problems of the state does not seem to work in their favour as the typcial conservative rural Saxon voters will be inclined to vote against those "evil foreigners and Brussels that are overwhelming our country" and so for AfD and NPD and some will probably also want to go for the populist FDP as black-yellow still is possible, but not probable, if the FDP is crossing the threshold.

Die Linke: 21% [20,6%]

The Left party is doing a quite decent campaign and a quite decent top candidate in Rico Gebhardt, but who is literally unknown - so they go more with content. Though their dialectical approach of linking things that are already achieved to things they want to do is probably a little bit too intellectual for the average voter. But on the other hand, people and journalists ask, what they mean by that, so it's a starter for Wahlkampf conversation. Examples: "Pisa-Lob und weniger Schulabbrecher" (Praise by the PISA study and less school dropouts), "Sächsisch und weltoffen" ("Saxon and cosmopolitan") with the picture of the famous Yenidze tobacco factory in Dresden, also called the "tobacco mosque" for obvious reasons, or "Industrietradition und Energiewende" (Energiewende is now the polticial German term for "getting out of fossil fuels and building up renewables"). I think they would be ready to govern, but as long as SPD and Greens are bitching around against them, this will not happen.

SPD: 12% [10,4%]
The SPD is doing a rightful battle matériel, but they really do a campaign that is tailored towards their top candidate Martin Dulig, who has a real awkward personality and never did say something that has content, despite "The Left party is evil and we are the serious and competent people's party (mind the German obsession of being a "Volkspartei") on the left. So all they have are sh**tty face posters of Dulig and attention-whoring because nobody notices them for all attention is concentrating on the true antagonist of Gebhardt and Tillich, because everybody knows the most probable outcome is a CDU/SPD-coalition like 2004-2009, and the only difference is that both partners will have less of a profile concerning the contents and worse staff, this time. Some badmouths already call the SPD campaign "the most expensive twelve percent ever"

AfD: 7,5 %
NPD: 4 % [5,6%]

The AfD, especially in Saxony, is a party of frustrated right-wing old white middle class men, despite their top candidate Frauke Petry, who is a quite energetic not-so-old woman and entrepreneur who is trying to give them a reasonable voice. Their platform and campaign is a strange mix of law and order right wing populism (spotted by some folklore like a quota of music sung in German in the radio airtime and referenda concerning the building of minarets (there isn't even one, now), economic liberalism, also exploiting ostalgia and 1989 the same time ("Dafür sind wir 1989 nicht auf die Straße gegangen"/ We didn't go out on the streets in 1989 for that"). Their probable voters mostly seem to be disappointed former CDU and FDP voters, added by some NPD and Linke protest voters, but not to a high extent.

As the pollsters are now seeing NPD up to five percent, there seems now to be a real core of NPD voters in Saxony. I would've expected that the AfD is gaining more from them than from CDU, but polls suggest this is not the case. Unless this is not just the pollsters calculating a "shy right winger effect" that already has ceased to exist, this would be the real concerning story of this election, because one would think that the less disgusting AfD would be an alternative for mere protest voters.

Greens: 7% [6,4%]
The Greens are doing a campaign stressing their core values and are now having a typcial Green "Doppelspitze" (two official top candidates) for the first time, as they wanted to contain Antje Hermenau who comes from the right wing of the party, has been an open proponent of a black-green coalition (not so much for the last year) and despises the Left party. Despite being quite isolated politically inside the party, noone really tries to oust her, because she is claimed to have some appeal to moderate voters (weither this is good, if it is even true, is a very debateable issue, because she also scares people that are more left wing). Volkmar Zschocke is a well-respected long-term muncipial politician from Chemnitz, but he seems to be very unknown outside his town, so the Doppelspitze did probably not achieve its main goal. They will get their core voters out, win some in rural areas, where they had at some places decent results in the 2014 municipial elections, and be more stagnant at the big cities (that have more voters, though, by a massive inmigration over the last ten years from the rural parts and other states, eastern and western alike. So their small wins, if any, should be attributed to demographic change.

FDP: 4 % [10%]
FDP is campaigning mainly for loan votes, the exact opposite of their policies while in government (more policemen, better public transport) and is hoping for the votes of cars ("Your car would vote for us" REALLY is a campaign poster slogan"). Of course, claiming the opposite of their actual policies has a tradition there. In 2004 at the height of the protest wave against the job-market reform ("Hartz laws") they really placarded "Herz statt Hartz". At least they are not recylcling the CDU slogan from the seventies "Freiheit statt Sozialismus"/"Freedom instead of socialism", which they actually wanted to do.

Others: 6,5% [6,8%]

I am not doing predictions for the different splinter groups

Also run:
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz/ Party Human, Environment, Animal Protection [2,1%]
Wants to loose its single-issue animal protection image and is campaigning on an environmentalist, anti-lobbyism (quite ironic) platform. Comes more from a "christian humanist" background than the Greens and seems to be more socially conservative, but I don't know if many of their voters notice their platform, anyway.

Pirate Party [1,9%]
The fad is over.

Bürgerrechtsbewegung Solidarität (BüSo)/ Civil Rights Movement Solidarity [0,2%]
We all know Lyndon LaRouche is the only person who can save the world by building a giant magnetic rail to Moscow and Peking and by this, prevent the third world war.

Deutsche Soziale Union (DSU)/ German Social Union [0,2%]
Yes, this remnant of the right wing of the GDR civil rights movement, that was first pampered and then dropped by the CSU with the intelligent people moving forward to the CDU, is still around.

Bürgerbewegung pro Deutschland [0,2%]
The Saxonian branch of this xenophobic scum is mostly the former "Saxonian People's Party" of a former NPD Landtag member, that surprisingly found out after years of research and experience, that the NPD is very right wing.

Free Voters [1,4% as Freie Sachsen]
Will geht their fair share in some rural areas.

Die PARTEI
Martin Sonneborn's satiricial project is also running and will get their fair share in some urban areas.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on August 27, 2014, 04:22:22 am
Front-runners for Wowereit's succession as Berlin mayor are state party chairman Jan Stöß and state parliament caucus leader Raed Saleh.

Both are considered members of the SPD's left wing, even though Saleh seems to be Wowereit's preferred choice to succeed him. Stöß had defeated Wowereit's man Michael Müller during the last SPD chairmanship election. Stöß would be Berlin's second gay mayor and Saleh would be Berlin's first mayor of Arab descent.

Since there are some doubts concerning the competence/experience of both front-runners, the federal SPD apparently also tried to recruit President of the European Parliament Martin Schulz for the job. But he already turned them down.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on August 27, 2014, 05:21:49 pm
FDP: Foreign media mean, that Lindner's strategy is to ignore Berlin and focus on NRW, so that he achieves a strong result there in spring 2017, boosting the federal FDP in autumn.

NRW is in mid-2017. That's an eternity for the FDP. Nobody knows in what state the party will be by then and whether participating in the NRW election would serve any purpose anymore tbh.

I think the FDP's short term strategy right now is to ignore Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg in August/September (because they don't have a chance there anyway), and try to get past 5% in Hamburg next February. At this point the FDP tries to find state parliaments were it has a realistic chance of getting into, and doesn't really put its mind on the Bundestag.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on August 28, 2014, 02:02:56 am
My prediction for the Saxony state election on Sunday:

40.4% CDU
19.2% Left
13.9% SPD
  7.6% AfD
  6.1% Greens
  4.8% NPD
  3.3% FDP
  1.2% Pirates
  1.1% TSP
  1.0% The Party
  0.8% FW
  0.6% Others

Turnout: 58.4%

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on August 28, 2014, 02:12:44 am
Merkel rules out any coalition with the AfD on the federal and state level:

Quote
Merkel sagt "Nein" zu Koalition mit der AfD

Wenige Tage vor der Landtagswahl in Sachsen hat CDU-Chefin Angela Merkel ein Bündnis mit der eurokritischen AfD ausgeschlossen. Bereits am Dienstag hatte die Spitze der Bundes-CDU ihr Nein zur Zusammenarbeit mit der AfD bekräftigt. Die gelte für den Bund und die Länder, hatte Generalsekretär Peter Tauber gesagt und unter anderem auf die europapolitischen Vorstellungen sowie das "rückwärtsgewandte Gesellschaftsbild" der AfD verwiesen. Sachsens Ministerpräsident Stanislaw Tillich (CDU) hat dagegen ein Bündnis mit der AfD bisher nicht eindeutig ausgeschlossen.

http://www.mdr.de/sachsen/wahlen-politik/landtagswahl/vorwahlsplitter-landtagswahl-sachsen100.html#anchor1

Merkel says the AfD has a "backwards picture of society".

Which might be true.

Didn't the Saxony-AfD leader just recently call for a referendum on abortion ?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Hifly on August 28, 2014, 02:31:06 am
Merkel rules out any coalition with the AfD on the federal and state level:

Quote
Merkel sagt "Nein" zu Koalition mit der AfD

Wenige Tage vor der Landtagswahl in Sachsen hat CDU-Chefin Angela Merkel ein Bündnis mit der eurokritischen AfD ausgeschlossen. Bereits am Dienstag hatte die Spitze der Bundes-CDU ihr Nein zur Zusammenarbeit mit der AfD bekräftigt. Die gelte für den Bund und die Länder, hatte Generalsekretär Peter Tauber gesagt und unter anderem auf die europapolitischen Vorstellungen sowie das "rückwärtsgewandte Gesellschaftsbild" der AfD verwiesen. Sachsens Ministerpräsident Stanislaw Tillich (CDU) hat dagegen ein Bündnis mit der AfD bisher nicht eindeutig ausgeschlossen.

http://www.mdr.de/sachsen/wahlen-politik/landtagswahl/vorwahlsplitter-landtagswahl-sachsen100.html#anchor1

Merkel says the AfD has a "backwards picture of society".

Which might be true.

Didn't the Saxony-AfD leader just recently call for a referendum on abortion ?

Well, they're possibly the most highly educated party.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on August 28, 2014, 07:17:46 am
Merkel rules out any coalition with the AfD on the federal and state level:

Quote
Merkel sagt "Nein" zu Koalition mit der AfD

Wenige Tage vor der Landtagswahl in Sachsen hat CDU-Chefin Angela Merkel ein Bündnis mit der eurokritischen AfD ausgeschlossen. Bereits am Dienstag hatte die Spitze der Bundes-CDU ihr Nein zur Zusammenarbeit mit der AfD bekräftigt. Die gelte für den Bund und die Länder, hatte Generalsekretär Peter Tauber gesagt und unter anderem auf die europapolitischen Vorstellungen sowie das "rückwärtsgewandte Gesellschaftsbild" der AfD verwiesen. Sachsens Ministerpräsident Stanislaw Tillich (CDU) hat dagegen ein Bündnis mit der AfD bisher nicht eindeutig ausgeschlossen.

http://www.mdr.de/sachsen/wahlen-politik/landtagswahl/vorwahlsplitter-landtagswahl-sachsen100.html#anchor1

Merkel says the AfD has a "backwards picture of society".

Which might be true.

Didn't the Saxony-AfD leader just recently call for a referendum on abortion ?

Well, they're possibly the most highly educated party.
Do you mean by membership or by electorate ?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on August 29, 2014, 05:32:36 am
The fight over Klaus Wowereit's succession as Berlin mayor has now become a three-way race. Michael Müller, former SPD state chairman and current minister for urban development, joins Jan Stöß and Raed Saleh as candidate.

The members of the Berlin SPD are going to vote on who will succeed Wowereit in a primary-like election this fall.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on August 29, 2014, 10:50:07 am
Final Saxony state election poll out from FGW for ZDF:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on August 29, 2014, 11:19:55 am
A state which elects the NPD to the state parliament for a third time in a row - and Saxony would be the first German state where this happens - must be pretty horrible.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on August 29, 2014, 06:50:57 pm
Linke and SPD are gonna be ranked the other way around, I guarantee it.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on August 30, 2014, 09:05:15 am
Linke and SPD are gonna be ranked the other way around, I guarantee it.

Why do you think the SPD can improve by 2% and the Left lose 2% compared with the last polls ?

German pre-election polls are generally close to the actual result.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on August 30, 2014, 11:42:22 am
Experience has taught me that when you have a social-liberal party and a vaguely more leftist party competing somewhat closely for a rank, the social-liberal party nearly always end up ahead of the vaguely more leftist party. Not always, I grant you, but nearly always.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 01:25:18 am
The polls in Saxony are now open. They will close at 6pm local time with first exit polls.

2009 state election result (Final 2014 polls):

40.2% CDU (39-42%)
20.6% Left (18-20%)
10.4% SPD (13-15%)
10.0% FDP (3-4%)
  6.4% Greens (5-7%)
  5.6% NPD (4-5%)
  2.1% Animal Protection Party
  1.9% Pirates
  2.8% Others

  0.0% AfD (6-7%)

Turnout: 52.2%

Quote
Germany - Chancellor Angela Merkel could be facing a major political challenge with Sunday's election in the eastern German state of Saxony possibly becoming a launching pad for the anti-euro Alternative for Deutschland to secure seats in parliaments across the country.

Chancellor Angela Merkel faces a fresh challenge to her traditional conservative political bloc from a new anti-euro party that is poised to enter a German state parliament for the first time.

(Image Link)

Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) in the eastern state of Saxony have not ruled out forging a new coalition with the right-populist Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) following elections on Sunday.

This could set the stage for the AfD entering the parliaments of two other states, which are also due to go to the polls next month.

Leading in opinion polls, Saxon CDU Premier Stanilaw Tillich will likely have to find a new coalition partner after the election. Voter surveys point to his current ally, the pro-business Free Democrats, being shut out of parliament in the weekend ballot.

The CDU has dominated political life in Saxony, which includes the east's historic industrial heartland, since the state held its first post-Communist election in October 1990, shortly after Germany's reunification.

But after just failing to pass the 5-per-cent hurdle for securing seats in the national parliament in last September's federal election, the AfD now plans to turn Saxony into its new political stronghold in Germany.

The eurosceptic party is expected to win between 6 and 7 per cent of the vote on Sunday, about the same as what the party secured in the May European elections.

Founded in April in last year at the height of the eurozone debt crisis, the AfD's membership has drawn many of its members from the CDU, who are frustrated with Merkel's cautious conservatism and angry at her decision to help bail out cash-strapped southern European states.

“People are open to the idea of a new party,” Saxon AfD state secretary Uwe Wurlitzer told members of Germany's foreign press association.

http://www.iol.co.za/news/world/merkel-faces-anti-euro-party-test-1.1742518


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 01:54:04 am
My final prediction for the Saxony state election today:

40.5% CDU
18.8% Left
14.8% SPD
  7.4% AfD
  5.5% Greens
  4.7% NPD
  3.0% FDP
  1.6% TSP
  1.2% FW
  1.2% Pirates
  0.8% The Party
  0.5% Others

Turnout: 58.4%

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Unimog on August 31, 2014, 02:20:36 am
My prediction:

41,2 % CDU
19,5 % Left
14,5 % SPD
  6,5 % AfD
  6,0 % Green
  5,5 % NPD
  2,5 % FDP
  4,3 % ./.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 03:03:17 am
I just took the Wahlomat's 38 questions for Saxony.

The parties that came out on top for me:

79.2% Pirates
76.0% Left
75.0% Animal Protection Party

72.9% SPD
69.8% The Party
64.6% Greens
63.5% FW
62.5% DSU
49.0% BüSo
47.9% Pro Deutschland
47.9% FDP
45.8% NPD
39.6% CDU
38.5% AfD


https://www10.wahl-o-mat.de/sachsen2014/main_app.php


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 03:39:29 am
Damn, the first turnout report from 10am shows that only 5.7% of all eligible voters have voted so far, compared with 8.7% in 2009.

http://www.statistik.sachsen.de/wpr_neu/pkg_s10_wbt.prc_beteiligung?p_bzid=LW14&p_ebene=SN&p_ort=14

2009 already saw the historically worst turnout in Saxony with just 52% turnout.

And today it seems it will be even lower (today is the last day of school holidays in the state).

I would have thought turnout might increase because of AfD motivating previous non-voters.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 03:53:54 am
The current "negative-record" for turnout in a German state election was set in 2006 in Saxony-Anhalt with just 44.4%

Saxony is on track to beat this today, if turnout does not pick up later in the day ...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on August 31, 2014, 04:06:32 am
Experience has taught me that when you have a social-liberal party and a vaguely more leftist party competing somewhat closely for a rank, the social-liberal party nearly always end up ahead of the vaguely more leftist party. Not always, I grant you, but nearly always.

That didn't happen in the 1994, 1999, 2004, and 2009 Saxony state elections though. In fact, the exact opposite of what you just described occurred.

Final 2009 poll: SPD 14%, Left 20%
Actual 2009 result: SPD 10.4%, Left 20.6%

Final 2004 poll: SPD 14%, PDS 19%
Actual 2004 result: SPD 9.8%, PDS 23.6%

Final 1999 poll: SPD 16%, PDS 18%
Actual 1999 result: SPD 10.7%, PDS 22.2%

Final 1994 poll: SPD 23%, PDS 16%
Actual 1994 poll: SPD 16.6%, PDS 16.5%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 04:17:25 am
Yepp.

Hopefully, the SPD will finally stop this today and live up to their pre-election polling.

Otherwise, my prediction would be crappy ... :P


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: sirius3100 on August 31, 2014, 04:41:21 am
Your prediction will be crappy because of the low turnout anyway ;)

I've no idea how you expected a higher turnout than the last time. There has been basically no real campaigning for this election. Here is my prediction I made at wahlrecht.de yesterday (I also didn't expect such a extremly low turnout, so especially the number for the NPD might be too low and for the Left too high):

CDU: 40,5%
Left: 18,5%
SPD: 15,0%
FDP: 3,0%
Greens: 6,0%
NPD: 5,0%
AFD: 7,5%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 06:38:58 am
12:00 turnout in Saxony still lagging behind 2009:

14.9% vs. 19.4% in 2009


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Unimog on August 31, 2014, 06:54:18 am
good for cdu, left & npd.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 07:39:12 am
2pm turnout in Saxony:

2014: 23.1%
2009: 27.6%

Looks like ca. 45-48% in the end.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on August 31, 2014, 09:21:34 am
I doubt, that this will be good for the left. Differently from common wisdom the average Linke voter is not so much the retiree "I vote my party whatever happens" voter. Their best ages are more the 40-60 year olds.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on August 31, 2014, 09:23:00 am
Damn, the first turnout report from 10am shows that only 5.7% of all eligible voters have voted so far, compared with 8.7% in 2009.
This is without mail voters, though. Well, thet happens if you set an election intentionally at the last day of the summer holidays. The rainy weather would not help either.
At least in Leipzig, turnout is acellerating a little bit throughout the afternoon, so they are now ahead of the European election numbers at Saxony-Anhalt 2006 level.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on August 31, 2014, 09:52:12 am

I would imagine it would also help AfD


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: jaichind on August 31, 2014, 11:00:31 am
ARD projects CDU at 39%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: jaichind on August 31, 2014, 11:01:07 am
ARD: GERMAN SPD TAKES 12.5% IN SAXONY; LEFT PARTY 19%; AFD 10%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: jaichind on August 31, 2014, 11:01:42 am
ARD TELEVISION PROJECTIONS SHOW POSSIBLE CDU-SPD COALITION


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 11:01:48 am
1st projection (ARD):

39.0% CDU
19.0% Left
12.5% SPD
10.0% AfD
  6.0% Greens
  5.0% NPD
  3.5% FDP


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 11:03:58 am
1st ZDF projection:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: jaichind on August 31, 2014, 11:06:11 am
Looks like AfD, as expected, took some of the NPD vote.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 11:09:25 am
Looks like AfD, as expected, took some of the NPD vote.

Yeah, if the NPD ends up with 4.99% I wouldn't really mind the AfD in the state parliament.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 11:13:49 am
I already thought that the AfD would outperform their pre-election polls, but 10% is certainly impressive (pre-election polls: 6-7%) and considering it's just the 1st projection there's still some room for 11% ...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 11:18:18 am
1st ARD-Hochrechnung:

(Image Link)

AfD gained mostly former CDU, FDP, Left and NPD voters.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 11:20:07 am
1st ZDF-Hochrechnung:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 11:28:21 am
Both ARD and ZDF project turnout at 48.5% (-4%).

It would be the worst turnout in the history of Saxony and the 2nd lowest in German state elections ever.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 11:39:41 am
Actual results with clickable district maps:

http://www.mdr.de/sachsen/wahlen-politik/landtagswahl/wahldaten100.html

Click on "Wahlkreise" for district results.

"Erststimme" means FPTP-district vote.

"Zweitstimme" means PR/list vote.

Results should start to come in in the next hour, with a final result at ca. 11pm.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 11:47:44 am
Men voted:

(Image Link)

Women voted:

(Image Link)

AfD by age:

(Image Link)

NPD by age:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 12:20:45 pm
The latest ZDF-Hochrechnung has the NPD at 4.9%, which would mean they would be out of the parliament.

But the ARD-one still has them at 5.0%, so ... let's wait.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 12:37:42 pm
Saxony's Governor Tillich (CDU) is still not 100% ruling out a coalition with the AfD, despite Merkel basically "forbidding" it.

Maybe he just wants to get the biggest bang for the buck in the coalition talks: By not ruling out a AfD coalition, he could put increasing pressure on an already small SPD and put a strong conservative stamp on a Grand Coalition.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 12:45:55 pm
CDU nearing 40% in the latest ZDF-projection (39.9%), while the NPD is back up to 5.0% and the AfD at 10%.

SPD slips further back towards 12% (12.2)

Looks like the final results will show if the NPD is in or out.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 12:55:52 pm
The actual count can be viewed here:

http://www.statistik.sachsen.de/wpr_neu/pkg_s10_gew.prc_ueb_aw?p_bzid=LW14

More than half of all cities are now counted. No district fully in yet though.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on August 31, 2014, 12:59:52 pm

Men are obviously stupid.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 01:04:49 pm
Actual statewide count:

272/446 cities

10.6% AfD
  5.6% NPD

Of course, mostly rural areas are in so far.

NPD only gets 3% in Dresden and Leipzig, while the AfD only has 7-8% there.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 01:12:33 pm
I wonder where Lewis is right now ... :P

And Franzl ...

Too bad they are not here posting.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 01:16:14 pm
The first 2 districts are now fully counted.

Sächsische Schweiz-Osterzgebirge 3

11.0% AfD
  8.7% NPD

Erzgebirge 4

11.2% AfD
  5.8% NPD


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Unimog on August 31, 2014, 01:18:54 pm
NPD still at 5% - thats 5% too much.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on August 31, 2014, 01:32:29 pm
It seems, that the only district, that will not got to the CDU is Leipzig 2, that has the "Szeneviertel" of Connewitz and Südvorstadt in the south of the city in it. Some other Leipzig constituencies are close, but CDU should eek out a win in all of them, some with very thin margins. One Chemnitz constituency was close. Dresden was awfully lame.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 01:41:58 pm
Does anyone know what's wrong with Bautzen 5 ?

15% AfD
11% NPD

100% counted.

That's up from 7% NPD and 0% AfD in 2009.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on August 31, 2014, 01:47:54 pm
Does anyone know what's wrong with Bautzen 5 ?

15% AfD
11% NPD

100% counted.

That's up from 7% NPD and 0% AfD in 2009.

The rise of 700 votes in the city of Bautzen of about 38.000 inhabitants maybe comes from the mobilisation against an Asylbewerberheim there. That's the only local factor I could think of, because this is a result and difference towards 2009 without parallel. AfD is regularly stronger in East Saxony, because of the near border associated by it and maybe even the dumb people's fear of the wolf.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 01:55:13 pm
Does anyone know what's wrong with Bautzen 5 ?

15% AfD
11% NPD

100% counted.

That's up from 7% NPD and 0% AfD in 2009.

The rise of 700 votes in the city of Bautzen of about 38.000 inhabitants maybe comes from the mobilisation against an Asylbewerberheim there. That's the only local factor I could think of, because this is a result and difference towards 2009 without parallel. AfD is regularly stronger in East Saxony, because of the near border associated by it and maybe even the dumb people's fear of the wolf.

Ah yeah, thx.

Hate against asylum seekers is a well-known motivation for NPD/AfD-voters (more so for the NPD of course, but the AfD recently jumped on the anti-asylum train as well).

Previously, I only knew Bautzen because of the popular band Silbermond (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silbermond).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on August 31, 2014, 01:59:41 pm
Bautzen actually is a beautiful town, so for me such results really come out of nothing. I was born there and lived there for the first five years of my life. So, such results really hurt.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2014, 02:07:30 pm
Bautzen actually is a beautiful town, so for me such results really come out of nothing. I was born there and lived there for the first five years of my life. So, such results really hurt.

I know, these results are a shame for this city:

(Image Link)

But don't worry: Headlines like these ("Asylum seekers live in 4-star hotel") would probably yield a 40% FPÖ-result in an Austrian town, so you are "well-off" with the 26% for AfD/NPD in Bautzen ...

;)

http://www.sz-online.de/sachsen/bautzen-bringt-asylbewerber-in-vier-sterne-hotel-unter-2848699.html


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on August 31, 2014, 02:28:39 pm
well, it's an ex-four-star-hotel, of course.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on August 31, 2014, 02:44:16 pm

Only, if you belong to the ethnic minority of the Sorbs.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on August 31, 2014, 03:05:43 pm
Well, it's probably not "linguistic imperialism" to call a city, like a huge majority of its inhabitants call it. ;-)

Without having worked out the details there seems a quite strong correlation between AfD strength and DSU strength of 1990/94.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: MaxQue on August 31, 2014, 03:33:02 pm
What was DSU?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on August 31, 2014, 03:54:27 pm

Basically the CSU's short-lived attempt to expand to East Germany back in 1989/1990 (DSU stands for German Social Union instead of Christian Social Union).

However, the experiment was soon abandoned at the CDU's request, because they didn't want to face a conservative competition outside of Bavaria.

After the DSU was left to survive on its own, it was quickly reduced to the status of a minor splinter party.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on August 31, 2014, 04:20:15 pm

Basically the CSU's short-lived attempt to expand to East Germany back in 1989/1990 (DSU stands for German Social Union instead of Christian Social Union).

However, the experiment was soon abandoned at the CDU's request, because they didn't want to face a conservative competition outside of Bavaria.

After the DSU was left to survive on its own, it was quickly reduced to the status of a minor splinter party.
That's one part of the story. The other part is: The right wing of the GDR civil rights movement founding a party. The CDU also had been a bloc party, so the DSU started as an alternative for those who did not want to be associated with bloc partydom and the old regime. DSU turned out to attract more conservative people. And then came the CSU intervention that did not really work out well, especially since most competent members went to the CDU quite quickly, at least after they did'nt pass the threshold in the 1990 Bundestag and Landtag elections.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Franzl on August 31, 2014, 04:23:25 pm
NPD 4,9 !


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: freek on August 31, 2014, 04:25:25 pm
Looks like AfD, as expected, took some of the NPD vote.

Yeah, if the NPD ends up with 4.99% I wouldn't really mind the AfD in the state parliament.
NPD ends up with 4.95% in the preliminary final results. :). 808 votes short of the 5% hurdle.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: mountvernon on August 31, 2014, 06:05:40 pm

Basically the CSU's short-lived attempt to expand to East Germany back in 1989/1990 (DSU stands for German Social Union instead of Christian Social Union).

However, the experiment was soon abandoned at the CDU's request, because they didn't want to face a conservative competition outside of Bavaria.

After the DSU was left to survive on its own, it was quickly reduced to the status of a minor splinter party.
That's one part of the story. The other part is: The right wing of the GDR civil rights movement founding a party. The CDU also had been a bloc party, so the DSU started as an alternative for those who did not want to be associated with bloc partydom and the old regime. DSU turned out to attract more conservative people. And then came the CSU intervention that did not really work out well, especially since most competent members went to the CDU quite quickly, at least after they did'nt pass the threshold in the 1990 Bundestag and Landtag elections.

What was the "right wing" of the GDR civil rights movement?  More associated with the Lutheran Church?

How important was the CDU block party in the creation of the "new" CDU in the East?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: mountvernon on August 31, 2014, 06:08:05 pm
It's not unusual for protest or extremist parties to perform much better with men than with women, and to do especially well with young men.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 01, 2014, 01:10:46 am
Good to see that the Nazis are finally kicked out of the state parliament again (4.95%)

:)

Also: CDU wins all but 1 FPTP districts (only Leipzig-2 was won by the Left Party candidate) and all PR/list districts.

The "Spiegel" has a clickable map with party strength by district (2014/2009):

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/landtagswahl-in-sachsen-alle-ergebnisse-a-986694.html#startTab=1

Erststimme = FPTP district winner
Zweitstimme = PR/list district winner


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on September 01, 2014, 01:20:05 am
Quote
What was the "right wing" of the GDR civil rights movement?  More associated with the Lutheran Church?
Most of the civil rights movement was in some way associated with the Lutheran Church. See the late prime minister of Sachsen-Anhalt, Reinhold Höppner (SPD), as an example, also the Alliance90 and Green types. Right Wing is meant as a set of politicial opinions. They were socially conservative, stressing religious values, wanted reunification subito, free market economy etc., while those groups that formed Alliance 90 and to some extent even the Social Democrat Party (SDP; sic!) at the beginning wanted a reformed GDR with democratic socialism

Quote
How important was the CDU block party in the creation of the "new" CDU in the East?
Very important, as this (and the Democratic Peasant Party) was were most of the members and the ressources came from. With the exception of the top tier of the national level, that was ousted as a scapegoat, many politicians at district (Bezirk) and muncipal (Kreise und Gemeinden) level had unhurted careers, e.g. many CDU mayors and Landräte stayed in office after 1990, though of course the district and muncipial parties had been an fully integrated part of the GDR political system, and their role had not been opposition.
The German unification and the popularity of Kohl and some flagship imports like Kurt Biedenkopf overshadowed this, of course, so they all claim to have been purified and made an 180 degree turn from what they said before October 1989.

And only the SED/PDS was stripped of its property. CDU and FDP were allowed to keep it or at least sell it.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Unimog on September 01, 2014, 01:35:02 am
NPD still at 5% - thats 5% too much.

wrong!

it's only 4,95 too much.

fine.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 01, 2014, 02:01:16 am
The NPD might as well cry for a recount, but because a recount can only be requested in precincts with obvious counting errors and not statewide (nor because of a really close result), their request will go nowhere ...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on September 01, 2014, 03:43:34 am
Are we, broadly speaking as intelligent sentient beings, better off with AfD instead of NPD in the Saxon Landtag ? If they steal their voters, don't they also steal their ideology and policies ? The general perception I had so far was that they were a more acceptable far-right alternative. Is that so ?

Oh and of course, my pessimistic prediction of SPD overtaking die Linke was way off. It can apparently stem from two things : 1. I always tend to forget that in the East die Linke is a well established party of management, and it's rather the SPD that's the newcomer ; and 2. the Saxon SPD seems to suck friggin balls.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on September 01, 2014, 03:50:34 am
Are we, broadly speaking as intelligent sentient beings, better off with AfD instead of NPD in the Saxon Landtag ?

Broadly speaking, yes. Thd NPD are people who admire Adolf Hitler. The AfD are people who admire Margaret Thatcher.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on September 01, 2014, 04:08:56 am
Are we, broadly speaking as intelligent sentient beings, better off with AfD instead of NPD in the Saxon Landtag ?

Broadly speaking, yes. Thd NPD are people who admire Adolf Hitler. The AfD are people who admire Margaret Thatcher.
Yes I got that. But will they do things differently in the Landtag ? For example, if they end up one day drawing CDU to its right in a CDU-AfD coalition (not likely for now, I know), is it not worse than a basically harmless NPD with a bunch of MPs opposing everything and unable to influence policies ?

What is NPD's record in Landtags anyway ?  


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: GAworth on September 01, 2014, 04:21:21 am
Will the CDU now have to seriously go shopping for a new junior coalition partner? The FDP look to be in terrible shape and I am pretty sure the SPD doesn't want to play second fiddle forever in "grosse coalitions."


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on September 01, 2014, 04:41:12 am
Will the CDU now have to seriously go shopping for a new junior coalition partner? The FDP look to be in terrible shape and I am pretty sure the SPD doesn't want to play second fiddle forever in "grosse coalitions."
What makes you pretty sure of that ? It's not like they can hope anything better in the coming 10 years or so... Plus they happen to actually get some things passed, like the minimum wage.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: GAworth on September 01, 2014, 11:20:16 am
Will the CDU now have to seriously go shopping for a new junior coalition partner? The FDP look to be in terrible shape and I am pretty sure the SPD doesn't want to play second fiddle forever in "grosse coalitions."
What makes you pretty sure of that ? It's not like they can hope anything better in the coming 10 years or so... Plus they happen to actually get some things passed, like the minimum wage.

I agree with you about the next few years but they have been the alternative party of Government, not the junior party. The FDP have worked with the CDU for decades, I very much doubt seeing the SPD doing that.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Franzl on September 01, 2014, 11:30:56 am
I'd love to see black-green again like in my state, but I doubt Tillich will want to go with such a small majority.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: mountvernon on September 01, 2014, 12:40:15 pm
=
How important was the CDU block party in the creation of the "new" CDU in the East?
[/quote]
Very important, as this (and the Democratic Peasant Party) was were most of the members and the ressources came from. With the exception of the top tier of the national level, that was ousted as a scapegoat, many politicians at district (Bezirk) and muncipal (Kreise und Gemeinden) level had unhurted careers, e.g. many CDU mayors and Landräte stayed in office after 1990, though of course the district and muncipial parties had been an fully integrated part of the GDR political system, and their role had not been opposition.
The German unification and the popularity of Kohl and some flagship imports like Kurt Biedenkopf overshadowed this, of course, so they all claim to have been purified and made an 180 degree turn from what they said before October 1989.

And only the SED/PDS was stripped of its property. CDU and FDP were allowed to keep it or at least sell it.
[/quote]

Who tended to join the CDU block party under the GDR?  Was it stronger in some areas or with some social classes more than others?  I've read that the SPD (outside of Brandenburg) has been hurt a lack of "grassroots" in the East.  Is this because they didn't have a block party to build upon?  (I know that the Soviet-Zone SPD was forcibly incorporated into the SED).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: ingemann on September 01, 2014, 03:49:58 pm
Are we, broadly speaking as intelligent sentient beings, better off with AfD instead of NPD in the Saxon Landtag ? If they steal their voters, don't they also steal their ideology and policies ? The general perception I had so far was that they were a more acceptable far-right alternative. Is that so ?

Oh and of course, my pessimistic prediction of SPD overtaking die Linke was way off. It can apparently stem from two things : 1. I always tend to forget that in the East die Linke is a well established party of management, and it's rather the SPD that's the newcomer ; and 2. the Saxon SPD seems to suck friggin balls.

Yes when the more "moderate" extremist parties are the more viable ones, they tend to pull voters more than ideology from other extremist parties. People tend to adapt their ideology to the parties, who are closest to them.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: solarstorm on September 01, 2014, 07:46:05 pm
Are we, broadly speaking as intelligent sentient beings, better off with AfD instead of NPD in the Saxon Landtag ?

Broadly speaking, yes. Thd NPD are people who admire Adolf Hitler. The AfD are people who admire Margaret Thatcher.

... and Putin!


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: solarstorm on September 01, 2014, 08:15:35 pm
Interesting. There seems to be an east-west divide in terms of AfD support:
Görlitz, Bautzen and the Dresden exurbs have the most AfD voters.
Even more interesting: Even the NPD map displays the same pattern.
As a consequence, the CDU and the Linke are much stronger in the West, the former however in none of the three cities.
The SPD shows a similar pattern as the Linke, however they are stronger in the rural areas on the border to Thuringia.
The Greens and the are only strong in the cities, and so are the Pirates (providing you can call them strong).
The FDP has the strongest support in the middle sector of Saxony, but its support is by and large equally distributed.

PS: I love colors. :D


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: buritobr on September 01, 2014, 08:29:08 pm
Do you think that the FDP is getting smaller because the CDU is becoming almost like a new FDP? I read that, in recente years, the CDU has been becoming more free marketeer and less Christian. Is it true?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: solarstorm on September 01, 2014, 08:45:50 pm
Do you think that the FDP is getting smaller because the CDU is becoming almost like a new FDP? I read that, in recente years, the CDU has been becoming more free marketeer and less Christian. Is it true?

It depends on what you understand by "less Christian". The CDU has certainly become less conservative, but it still is a theocratic party.
In terms of market economy, the CDU has positioned itself as pro-social market; it is now where it used to be under Kohl's government.

To answer your question: No. After the near defeat in 2005, the CDU, which had been thatcheresque back then, has been trying to establish itself as an anti-FDP, which is supposed to take care of employees and, to a lesser extent, of the poor (in order to mulct the SPD of voters, obviously successfully).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on September 02, 2014, 01:13:39 am
Quote
Who tended to join the CDU block party under the GDR?  Was it stronger in some areas or with some social classes more than others?
I once had sociodemographic numbers for that, but can't find them at the moment. Of course, at least since the mid fifties the block parties did not differ much in their official ideology and many people who went to a block party did so show "involvement", but avoid SED membership
Mostly, the CDU as a block party was meant to integrate Christians into the GDR political system. Very prominent in Saxony is the integration of catholic Sorbs from Upper Lusatia (Tillich's background, they still get up to 75 per cent, there).
As I remember the class/strait profile was not that clear. They also had a fair share of workers (to the discontent of the SED), craftsmen, peasants and intelligentia alike, more from a rural and small town background. LDPD and NDPD (their nationalist stance was abolished already in the fifties and then parties were competing for the same groups) had a higher share of intelligentia and there members were more urban and less religious. DBD was at its foundation meant to organise small peasants, and after they were all in cooperatives was competing for them against the SED.
Quote
I've read that the SPD (outside of Brandenburg) has been hurt a lack of "grassroots" in the East.  Is this because they didn't have a block party to build upon?  (I know that the Soviet-Zone SPD was forcibly incorporated into the SED).
Basically this. The newly-founded SDP/SPD of the GDR started as a tiny group of intellectuals, often with a Christian background, and with almost no resources. "Party of pastors and engineers" was a nickname given to them. On the other hand CDU started with huge manpower, many resources to build upon (and were able to keep or at least sell much of it).
The second point is the general political climate that shaped the 1990 Volkskammer and Landtag elections. Kohl's "reunification as soon as possible", "all will be better off", "There will be flourishing landscapes" were the slogans of the day. Lafontaine gruntling about costs and risks (though he was right) was not very appealing at the time.
Thirdly, there was of course a personal and competence factor that reshaped this from state to state and over time. While Biedenkopf was a well-respected statesmen (before senile stubbornness and corruption charges kicked in), the first CDU-led governments in Thuringia (delayed by the import of Bernhard Vogel who was seen as competent, though leading abysimal cabinets), Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Saxony-Anhalt had many corruption and other scandals and were not seen as too competent, so the SPD was able to catch up a bit.
Maybe the most important factor is, of course the growth of the PDS throughout the nineties. As the SPD was unwilling to integrate former SED members, those who wanted to be in politics stayed at the PDS that actually turned out to be left-wing social democrats with some rhetorical and symbolic nostalgia gimmicks. As they are strong with demographics that are normally the most important ones for the SPD in the West (skilled blue collar and white collar workers) there was not that much of a room to grow for the SPD.
Organised labour is also tiny in the east and SPD has to compete with the PDS/Left party, there.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: mountvernon on September 03, 2014, 12:40:06 pm
I've noticed that, despite the East's famously low level of religious observance, people with church connections seem to have played a disproportionate role in post-unification politics.  This ranges from Merkel and Gauck on the national level to Manfred Stolpe and Christine Lieberknecht at the state level.   What explains this pattern?  The close ties between the Lutheran Church and the dissident movement?  With civil society so weak in the East, was church life the main place to find politically talented and aware people untainted by SED membership?  I know that the post-Communist GDR government was very pastor-heavy.

I have also read that, in the 1990s, religiously observant Easterners (of both confessions) backed the CDU at even higher rates than their Western counterparts.  The main explanation given was that maintaining a religious affiliation (even a nominal one) could be one manifestation of opposition to the GDR regime.  Has this continued?  As far as I can tell, "political Lutherans" run the gamut from Greens to the right-wingers who backed the DSU.  

I'd also expect church involvement in Eastern politics to decline over time, given that religiosity continues to fall, and that more conventional means of entering political life have emerged.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on September 04, 2014, 04:43:24 am
As church membership is low it seems natural, that the conviction of the members is higher. I would not go to far to call church membership per se an act of opposition towards the GDR. Open oppression of religion stopped in the mid fifities and at least in the seventies and eighties the church-state-relations were as relaxed as they could be under a general climate of mutual suspicion. But of course membership in the church was never welcomed by the state and as it became less important as a societal factor in everyday life there was no reason to attend church, baptise your children, give them religous education etc. if you weren't a true believer. So the main difference between East and West seems to be, that in the West you needed and need a reason to go, even if you not truly believe (as can be seen now as the numbers of leaving members in Germany rise at the moment after the Limburg bishop's mansion scandal and some changes of the church tax levy system) in the East you needed a reason to stay, so the actual church membership here is more devoted and more socially conservative.

Concerning te recruitment of politicians in the East I think you hit the point. Those church circles were a relationship network that was seen as quite untouched by the regime. Especially the Lutheran and Reformed churches (Is there any word to translate the German "Evangelische Kirche" into English without provoking misunderstanding?) had been a protection screen for many opposition groups, and was the only part of civil society that was politically active that the GDR government was not really able to control. So people with church backgrounds started with a high reputation, had a relationship network working, had often been politically active before 1989 and had the support of the western parties as well (Let aside that pastors are supposed to know how to speak before a public crowd). So they probably started with advantages, but the phenomenon of pastor politicians really seems to be constrained to the generation that emerged in 1989/90, although more or less devoted Christians still seem to be overrepresented in CDU, SPD and Greens, though ( I'm not sure about FDP and AfD.)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 04, 2014, 05:34:05 am
Meanwhile we have 2 new polls for the Sept. 14 state elections:

Brandenburg (FGW for ZDF)

33% SPD (no change compared with 2009)
25% CDU (+5)
21% Left (-6)
  8% AfD (+8)
  6% Greens (no change)
  7% Others (incl. the FDP) (-7)

The FDP got 7.2% in 2009.

Thüringen (FGW for ZDF)

36% CDU (+5)
26% Left (-1)
16% SPD (-3)
  8% AfD (+8)
  6% Greens (no change)
  8% Others (incl. the FDP) (-9)

The FDP got 7.6% in 2009.

...

Compared with previous polls, the 8% for the AfD is up from 5-6% and the highest level yet.

Looks like they are getting ca. 10% as well in these elections.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2014, 07:18:47 am
Brandenburg (Infratest dimap for ARD)

31% SPD (-2 compared with 2009)
24% CDU (+4)
22% Left (-5)
  9% AfD (+9)
  6% Greens (nc)
  2% FDP (-5)
  6% Others (-1)

Thüringen (Infratest dimap for ARD)

34% CDU (+3)
28% Left (+1)
16% SPD (-3)
  7% AfD (+7)
  5% Greens (-1)
  4% NPD (nc)
  3% FDP (-5)
  3% Others (-2)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: mountvernon on September 08, 2014, 07:29:18 am
. So they probably started with advantages, but the phenomenon of pastor politicians really seems to be constrained to the generation that emerged in 1989/90, although more or less devoted Christians still seem to be overrepresented in CDU, SPD and Greens, though ( I'm not sure about FDP and AfD.)
[/quote]

Does the Linke face generational challenges as well, given that younger voters have no memory of the GDR?  As former SED members age out of politics, will a nationwide SPD-Linke-Green alliance become more likely?  Or is the Linke still have too great a stigma?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on September 08, 2014, 11:40:39 am
As former SED members age out of politics, will a nationwide SPD-Linke-Green alliance become more likely?  Or is the Linke still have too great a stigma?

I think it's more of a problem that the Left is anti-Treaty of Lisbon, anti-NATO, anti-sanctions against Russia, anti-German troops in Afghanistan, and anti-couple of other things in foreign policy which are generally supported by SPD/Greens.

As soon as you form a SPD-Green-Left coalition government and something in the world happens which requires a decision by the German government, said government will probably fall apart and be replaced by a Grand coalition again.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: DL on September 08, 2014, 12:43:48 pm
As former SED members age out of politics, will a nationwide SPD-Linke-Green alliance become more likely?  Or is the Linke still have too great a stigma?

I think it's more of a problem that the Left is anti-Treaty of Lisbon, anti-NATO, anti-sanctions against Russia, anti-German troops in Afghanistan, and anti-couple of other things in foreign policy which are generally supported by SPD/Greens.

As soon as you form a SPD-Green-Left coalition government and something in the world happens which requires a decision by the German government, said government will probably fall apart and be replaced by a Grand coalition again.

All of thoise issues are about foreign policy...what is the obstacle to SPD-Linke coalition at the state level?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on September 08, 2014, 01:15:39 pm
All of thoise issues are about foreign policy...what is the obstacle to SPD-Linke coalition at the state level?

Not that much of an obstacle. There is currently one in Brandenburg, there have been such coalitions in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin (and de facto in Saxony-Anhalt too).

Saxony and Thuringia are a bit of different case, because the SPD is usually weaker than the Left there and that means they would have to concede the office of the minister-president to the Left Party. Which means the SPD would have to officially recognize that they are not the major left-wing party in those states.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State election in Saxony today!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on September 09, 2014, 05:44:44 am
Do you think that the FDP is getting smaller because the CDU is becoming almost like a new FDP? I read that, in recente years, the CDU has been becoming more free marketeer and less Christian.

While you could say that the CDU has become "less Christian", it certainly isn't more free-market now. The bottomline is, the CDU is not the reason for the FDP's decline. The FDP itself is.

Under Guido Westerwelle, the FDP dropped almost any of its platform planks except for tax cuts, effectively turning it into a populist anti-tax party. And then they became part of the federal governent and no tax cuts occured. Which rendered the party's existence redunant in they eyes of its voters.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on September 09, 2014, 06:30:16 am
Quote
Does the Linke face generational challenges as well, given that younger voters have no memory of the GDR?  As former SED members age out of politics, will a nationwide SPD-Linke-Green alliance become more likely?  Or is the Linke still have too great a stigma?
Generational changes, yes, but I would not call them challenges. Linke is still getting good results with those, born in the eighties and nineties who were politically socialized in the years of the total disruption of economy and society that where the nineties and 2000/02, then came the Hartz reforms, that aren't that well for young people struggling in an environment of structural unemployment. As the LINKE staff is getting younger, they also get more greenish, less structurally conservative, more 'hipster urban' to some extent, and GDR nostalgia has never played a large roll in the official party platform. This switch can be seen. The newly-directly-elected Juliane Nagel from the south of Leipzig is an antifascist and antiracist activist from parts of the town entrenched in 'left-wing alternative culture', whereas the old guard types were not able to win direct seats.

Organised labour is also friendly to the Linke in the East (well, they are the main left wing party). I think, one has to abstract from the common knowledge cliche that LINKE voters are all disgruntled ex-Stasi retirees. There aren't many people left who were in some charge until 1989 and play a role in the party, by now (There is a list regarding to their Bundestag faction somewhere in this or the election 2013 thread). Today the seventies 'new left' sectarian types that undeservingly benefited from the PDS/WASG merger and came into positions on Lafontaine's coattails seem to be a bigger problem for the prospects of a red-red-green government.




Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: njwes on September 11, 2014, 07:16:25 pm
Quote
Does the Linke face generational challenges as well, given that younger voters have no memory of the GDR?  As former SED members age out of politics, will a nationwide SPD-Linke-Green alliance become more likely?  Or is the Linke still have too great a stigma?
As the LINKE staff is getting younger, they also get more greenish, less structurally conservative, more 'hipster urban' to some extent, and GDR nostalgia has never played a large roll in the official party platform. This switch can be seen. The newly-directly-elected Juliane Nagel from the south of Leipzig is an antifascist and antiracist activist from parts of the town entrenched in 'left-wing alternative culture', whereas the old guard types were not able to win direct seats.

Interesting, do you think this trend could improve LINKE's performance in west Germany, to the detriment of GRÜNE?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on September 12, 2014, 12:25:56 am
Quote
Interesting, do you think this trend could improve LINKE's performance in west Germany, to the detriment of GRÜNE?
I was actually talking about the east, esp. Saxony, where the left is breaking into this urban, youngish leftish milieus that reshape their appearance. In the west, parts of this milieus are already in their column and shape their apperance.

But if their is some equalisation between the results in east and west it would still be the Left dwindling in the east and the greens rising a bit for demographical reasons.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on September 12, 2014, 05:47:58 am
Last poll ahead of this weekend's state elections in Brandenburg and Thuringia:

BB:

(Image Link)

TH:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on September 12, 2014, 06:14:17 am
Time for my predictions then:

Brandenburg

31.7% SPD
23.6% CDU
19.7% Left
10.5% AfD
  5.3% Greens
  2.5% FDP
  2.4% NPD
  1.5% FW
  1.3% Pirates
  1.5% Others

Turnout: 58%

Thüringen

34.3% CDU
25.6% Left
15.2% SPD
  9.1% AfD
  5.2% Greens
  4.1% NPD
  2.4% FDP
  1.8% FW
  1.4% Pirates
  0.9% Others

Turnout: 56%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on September 13, 2014, 08:33:04 am
According to some journalists, "Berlin" (i.e. federal politicans) expects a PM Ramelow. If NPD does not and GREENS do come into parliament (probable), a (thin) left majority were given.

Yes, that's also the reason why the federal CDU has started a "omg, we must prevent a communist minister-president for Thuringia, you must vote CDU!" campaign.

Btw, if I'm not mistaken, this could be then the first time in the history of the Federal Republic that we have two non-CDU/CSU/SPD minister-presidents at the same time (Kretschmann from the Greens in BW, and Ramelow in Thuringia).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Franzl on September 13, 2014, 04:48:48 pm
I really hope red-red-green does happen. I dislike the idea of Linke being in charge just as much as the next reasonable person, but it's really time for it to happen. There needs to be a clear left and right.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2014, 05:48:37 am
Voting underway in Brandenburg and Thüringen.

The next PM of Thüringen ?

Bodo Ramelow (Left Party, with the fitting Commie-trenchcoat)

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2014, 06:00:10 am
Turnout in Thüringen until 12:00 was 20% (30% with postal ballots).

That is about the same as 5 years ago.

Final turnout then was 56%.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2014, 06:02:53 am
According to some journalists, "Berlin" (i.e. federal politicans) expects a PM Ramelow. If NPD does not and GREENS do come into parliament (probable), a (thin) left majority were given.

Yes, that's also the reason why the federal CDU has started a "omg, we must prevent a communist minister-president for Thuringia, you must vote CDU!" campaign.

If their campaign works, I wouldn't be surprised to see a strong CDU-showing today ...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Franzl on September 14, 2014, 06:20:57 am
I'd vote Green in Thüringen today. Probably CDU in Brandenburg.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on September 14, 2014, 06:33:10 am
Voting underway in Brandenburg and Thüringen.

The next PM of Thüringen ?

Bodo Ramelow (Left Party, with the fitting Commie-trenchcoat)

(Image Link)

Owl pictures!!


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: jeron on September 14, 2014, 07:54:33 am
Turnout in Thüringen until 12:00 was 20% (30% with postal ballots).

That is about the same as 5 years ago.

Final turnout then was 56%.

It was 18% last time. There are no exact numbers for Brandenburg, but turnout seems to be low there. At 14:00 turnout was 23.7% in Potsdam compared to 38.8% during the bundestag elections last year.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2014, 09:13:15 am
14:00 turnout:

Brandenburg: 22.4% (2009: 36.3%, held together with the federal elections)

Thüringen: 30.0% (2009: 34.5%)

...

The drop-off in Brandenburg is disgusting, they are heading for 50-55% turnout.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2014, 09:57:59 am
16:00 turnout numbers point to a final turnout of 55-60% in Thüringen (roughly unchanged compared with 2009) and ca. 50-55% in Brandenburg (a decline of 12-17% compared with 2009).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2014, 10:45:36 am
ARD election coverage starts:

http://en.iphone-tv.eu/stream/de/44

ZDF election coverage starts:

http://en.iphone-tv.eu/stream/de/19

1st projection for both states in 15 minutes !


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Franzl on September 14, 2014, 10:48:38 am
ARD election coverage starts:

http://en.iphone-tv.eu/stream/de/44

ZDF election coverage starts:

http://en.iphone-tv.eu/stream/de/19

1st projection for both states in 15 minutes !

Ah thanks!

I've been trying for several minutes to get a livestream and unfortunately, from Poland, it's not the easiest task.

That works though.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2014, 10:49:37 am
ARD election coverage starts:

http://en.iphone-tv.eu/stream/de/44

ZDF election coverage starts:

http://en.iphone-tv.eu/stream/de/19

1st projection for both states in 15 minutes !

Ah thanks!

I've been trying for several minutes to get a livestream and unfortunately, from Poland, it's not the easiest task.

That works though.

No problem ... ;)

Btw: What are you doing in Poland ?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Franzl on September 14, 2014, 10:52:22 am
ARD election coverage starts:

http://en.iphone-tv.eu/stream/de/44

ZDF election coverage starts:

http://en.iphone-tv.eu/stream/de/19

1st projection for both states in 15 minutes !

Ah thanks!

I've been trying for several minutes to get a livestream and unfortunately, from Poland, it's not the easiest task.

That works though.

No problem ... ;)

Btw: What are you doing in Poland ?

Auslandssemester :)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2014, 10:55:02 am
ZDF is showing some stuff from the Thüringen exit poll and in this, both the CDU-Gov. and the Left-leader aren't doing all too hot.

More voters prefer a CDU/SPD coalition than a left-wing Left/SPD/Green one (which is actually opposed by a majority of voters).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Franzl on September 14, 2014, 10:55:41 am
Hoping the respectable turnout in Thüringen means the NPD doesn't surprise us...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Franzl on September 14, 2014, 11:05:44 am
CDU-SPD "grand coalition" with a majority of only 1 seat in Thüringen. Red-Red-Green 1 seat short of a majority. Well this is going to be chaos.



Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2014, 11:07:39 am
1st projections:

Brandenburg (ARD)

(Image Link)

Brandenburg (ZDF)

(Image Link)

Thüringen (ARD)

(Image Link)

Thüringen (ZDF)

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: DL on September 14, 2014, 11:07:59 am
Would the SPD prefer to continue the grand coalition or would they prefer to form a red-red-green coalition.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2014, 11:09:21 am
CDU-SPD "grand coalition" with a majority of only 1 seat in Thüringen. Red-Red-Green 1 seat short of a majority. Well this is going to be chaos.

CDU/SPD/Greens is an option then.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Franzl on September 14, 2014, 11:12:15 am
CDU-SPD "grand coalition" with a majority of only 1 seat in Thüringen. Red-Red-Green 1 seat short of a majority. Well this is going to be chaos.

CDU/SPD/Greens is an option then.

Wonder if this is the first time a "grand coalition" might be without a majority in Germany?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2014, 11:14:09 am
AfD continues to overpoll on election day.

Polls said 9% in BB, they got 12%.

Poll said 8% in TH, they got 10%.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Franzl on September 14, 2014, 11:14:54 am
Oh, and the FDP really needs to stop being listed separately.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2014, 11:31:35 am
According to the 1st ZDF-Hochrechnung, both CDU/SPD and Left/SPD/Greens now have a 1-seat majority in Thüringen (45/88 seats).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Cassius on September 14, 2014, 11:33:22 am
Question here; how are the CDU going to deal with the AfD? Its just that now they've been robbed of their usual 'right-wing' coalition partners, the only options that they have left are Grand and Black-Green coalitions. To my mind, this presents a potential problem, as these coalitions (I'd expect), are more likely to be geared towards the political centre (as with Merkel's current Grand Coalition), thus meaning that this might alienate the more right-wing CDU voters, who could be tempted to flirt with the AfD (weakening the overall CDU vote). Will the CDU come to some sort of accommodation with the AfD in the future (which might assuage any concerns that parts of their base might have), or will it continue to block their entry into government? I could be totally and utterly wrong here, but from what I can see, a problem seems to be emerging :P.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on September 14, 2014, 11:48:29 am
Question here; how are the CDU going to deal with the AfD? Its just that now they've been robbed of their usual 'right-wing' coalition partners, the only options that they have left are Grand and Black-Green coalitions. To my mind, this presents a potential problem, as these coalitions (I'd expect), are more likely to be geared towards the political centre (as with Merkel's current Grand Coalition), thus meaning that this might alienate the more right-wing CDU voters, who could be tempted to flirt with the AfD (weakening the overall CDU vote). Will the CDU come to some sort of accommodation with the AfD in the future (which might assuage any concerns that parts of their base might have), or will it continue to block their entry into government? I could be totally and utterly wrong here, but from what I can see, a problem seems to be emerging :P.

I guess we could see something similar to the development of the SPD-PDS relations during the 90s. At first, any cooperation between SPD and PDS was categorically ruled out. Then, some local SPD politicians started to break that taboo on the state-level, first in Saxony-Anhalt in 1994 when a SPD minority government had the backing of the PDS in the state parliament, then with the first official SPD-PDS coalition in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in 1998. A similar pattern could develop with CDU and AfD on the state level.

Assuming that the AfD doesn't start to fall apart at some point (which is still a scenario which could very well happen), we could have some CDU politician who badly wants to remain/become minister-president saying "screw it, let's work with the AfD" maybe four years down the road or so.

But we would still be a loooong time away from any CDU-AfD cooperation on the federal level.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2014, 11:48:46 am
Gains/Losses relative to 2009 (ARD):

(Image Link)

(Image Link)

Seats (ARD):

44-44 tie between CDU/AfD and Left/SPD/Greens.

(Image Link)

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on September 14, 2014, 11:53:27 am
For the record, the FDP is now reduced to representation in six out of 16 state parliaments. That's still two more state parliaments than the Pirate Party. Yay!


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2014, 12:02:56 pm
For the record, the FDP is now reduced to representation in six out of 16 state parliaments. That's still two more state parliaments than the Pirate Party. Yay!

With Hamburg coming up in February, it will likely be 5 soon because they are not polling well there either.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: jeron on September 14, 2014, 12:12:50 pm
Oh, and the FDP really needs to stop being listed separately.

It is their worst result in Brandenburg. Their worst result so far was 1.9% in 1999. (In Thüringen they did worse that year, when they received only 1.1% of the vote). The FDP had a string of pretty bad results at the end of the nineties and they were only represented in four regional parliaments at that time, so maybe there is still hope for them?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: politicus on September 14, 2014, 12:57:57 pm
Oh, and the FDP really needs to stop being listed separately.

It is their worst result in Brandenburg. Their worst result so far was 1.9% in 1999. (In Thüringen they did worse that year, when they received only 1.1% of the vote). The FDP had a string of pretty bad results at the end of the nineties and they were only represented in four regional parliaments at that time, so maybe there is still hope for them?

Let's hope not.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Beezer on September 14, 2014, 01:00:09 pm
Oh, and the FDP really needs to stop being listed separately.

It is their worst result in Brandenburg. Their worst result so far was 1.9% in 1999. (In Thüringen they did worse that year, when they received only 1.1% of the vote). The FDP had a string of pretty bad results at the end of the nineties and they were only represented in four regional parliaments at that time, so maybe there is still hope for them?

Back then they didn't have a natural enemy in the AfD though. Moreover, nobody is talking about the FDP anymore while the political class is incessantly discussing the AfD-phenomenon, giving the latter added legitimacy.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2014, 01:37:15 pm
Update:

THÜRINGEN

(Image Link)

(Image Link)

(Image Link)

(Image Link)

...

BRANDENBURG

(Image Link)

(Image Link)

(Image Link)

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on September 14, 2014, 01:58:26 pm
Oh, and the FDP really needs to stop being listed separately.

It is their worst result in Brandenburg. Their worst result so far was 1.9% in 1999. (In Thüringen they did worse that year, when they received only 1.1% of the vote). The FDP had a string of pretty bad results at the end of the nineties and they were only represented in four regional parliaments at that time, so maybe there is still hope for them?

They were still represented in the Bundestag at that time though. And like Beezer said, they didn't have a competitor like the AfD.

One shouldn't underestimate the severe effects of being ousted from the Bundestag. Among other things, it means that for all intents and purposes they're almost financially bankrupt. I think there was once a news report that they had to fire half of their staff in their national headquarters following the 2013 Bundestag election or something like that.

No votes means no money and no money means no personnel and no ressources. It already showed in this years' European election when they had very cheap and basic looking campaign posters (and relatively few of them compared to other parties as well). And for each state election they're defeated in, they will get even less money from the state in the future.

The PDS/Left managed to make a comeback after being ousted from the Bundestag in 2002, but it was a different situation. They literally received a transfusion of fresh blood in form of the WASG and Oskar Lafontaine and they still had a pretty strong base in the east (including state governments they formed with the SPD) even without Bundestag representation.

The Greens also managed to make a comeback following their ouster in 1990. However, their defeat back then wasn't really the result of a general downward trend. That year they had made the idiotic decision of campaigning against unification of Germany when everybody wanted exactly like that. I guess the historic unfication of a country (and all effects for a poltical party it may bear) counts as a very special circumstance in itself. :P I mean some even say that unification is what Helmut Kohl got re-elected in 1990 in the first place. And technically the Greens weren't even fully ousted from Bundestag, since at least the East German Greens made it to parliament that year through a special clause in the electoral law.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Franzl on September 14, 2014, 02:06:49 pm
So in Thüringen, the far-left and far-right receive a total of 40%, while red-green are at 18%, and black-yellow (lol) get 35%.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on September 14, 2014, 02:10:40 pm
So in Thüringen, the far-left and far-right receive a total of 40%, while red-green are at 13%, and black-yellow (lol) get 35%.
Yeah, well, I don't think die Linke qualifies as far-left in this context, maybe even in any context. And does the AfD actually qualify as "far-right" ? Wouldn't that be the NPD ? I would see the AfD more as "right-wing" or "hard-right", not "far-right".


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Franzl on September 14, 2014, 02:11:56 pm
So in Thüringen, the far-left and far-right receive a total of 40%, while red-green are at 13%, and black-yellow (lol) get 35%.
Yeah, well, I don't think die Linke qualifies as far-left in this context, maybe even in any context. And does the AfD actually qualify as "far-right" ? Wouldn't that be the NPD ? I would see the AfD more as "right-wing" or "hard-right", not "far-right".

I agree with you, but my version sounded more dramatic. :)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on September 14, 2014, 02:18:44 pm
So in Thüringen, the far-left and far-right receive a total of 40%, while red-green are at 13%, and black-yellow (lol) get 35%.
Yeah, well, I don't think die Linke qualifies as far-left in this context, maybe even in any context. And does the AfD actually qualify as "far-right" ? Wouldn't that be the NPD ? I would see the AfD more as "right-wing" or "hard-right", not "far-right".

I agree with you, but my version sounded more dramatic. :)
Oh I also like to play the dramatic game from time to time. Especially if I lose or win big time. :)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Diouf on September 14, 2014, 04:57:17 pm
The Social Democratic voters in Thüringen prefer SPD to continue governing with CDU in a grand coalition.
(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Diouf on September 14, 2014, 05:17:36 pm
The SPD in Brandenburg can choose whether to continue their coalition with Linke which dropped from 27.2% to 18.6% or govern with CDU which went from 19.8% to 23.0%. I haven't found a poll yet which show the preference of the SPD voters.

Brandenburger Vereinigte Bürgerbewegungen / Freie Wähler is probably entering parliament in Brandenburg due to the former SPDer Christoph Schulze, who looks like he will be able to retain the Teltow-Fläming III constituency in his new colours.
(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: solarstorm on September 14, 2014, 05:30:42 pm
Here are the CD results of Thuringia:

(Image Link)

The CDU wins 34 of 44 seats.

The Linke wins 9 districts: in Erfurt, Jena, Gera and Nordhausen.
The MP candidate of the Linke, Bodo Ramelow, lost his district (Erfurt III) to former finance minister, justice minister and Chief of Staff Marion Walsmann.

The only SPD districts belongs to Gotha and is won by Matthias Hey.

Here are the CD results of Brandenburg:

(Image Link)

SPD: 29
CDU: 10
Linke: 4
BVB/FW: 1

The blue color denotes a win by Christoph Schulze of the Vereinigte Bürgerbewegungen / Freie Wähler ("Citizens' Movement / Free Voters) in Teltow-Fläming III. He used to be a member of the SPD and a member of the Green faction (not the party). He has been a member of the Brandenburg Landtag since 1990.
This CD win by a minor results in a exemption of the 5% threshold for the BVB/FW, which gets 3 seats as a consequence.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: njwes on September 14, 2014, 05:41:00 pm
What position would the Freie Wähler members take generally--generic conservative/center-right?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: politicus on September 14, 2014, 05:44:08 pm


The only SPD district belongs to Gotha and is won by Matthias Hey.

There is a certain historical beauty to SPD still winning Gotha in a monumental defeat.



Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: solarstorm on September 14, 2014, 05:49:19 pm
What position would the Freie Wähler members take generally--generic conservative/center-right?

I think the American equivalent is "moderate".
Their members are the typical "nice men/women next door" with a clean sidewalk and a garden goblin.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: njwes on September 14, 2014, 05:53:48 pm
What position would the Freie Wähler members take generally--generic conservative/center-right?

I think the American equivalent is "moderate".
Their members are the typical "nice men/women next door" with a clean sidewalk and a garden goblin.

lol wait that's great, they should be getting more votes


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: solarstorm on September 14, 2014, 06:15:53 pm
What position would the Freie Wähler members take generally--generic conservative/center-right?

I think the American equivalent is "moderate".
Their members are the typical "nice men/women next door" with a clean sidewalk and a garden goblin.

lol wait that's great, they should be getting more votes

On the municipal level, they are extremely strong, in every Land.
On the state level, they are only relevant in Bavaria.

They are not meant for the federal stage; they rather care for municipal issues.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: solarstorm on September 14, 2014, 06:27:21 pm
The next two Lands to hold elections are Hamburg (Feb 2015) and Bremen (May 2015).
If the AfD manages to enter those two states' Bürgerschaften, it won't be possible anymore to imagine the political landscape without them.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: njwes on September 14, 2014, 06:34:49 pm
The next two Lands to hold elections are Hamburg (Feb 2015) and Bremen (May 2015).
If the AfD manages to enter those two states' Bürgerschaften, it won't be possible anymore to imagine the political landscape without them.

But if the other parties continue to refuse to form coalitions with them and essentially ignore them, what role would they have to play? At least until the next parliamentary election?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on September 14, 2014, 07:08:24 pm
Where can we find recent polling for Bremen and Hamburg?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 14, 2014, 07:12:51 pm
The only SPD districts belongs to Gotha

Haha, that's perfect.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: solarstorm on September 15, 2014, 12:11:19 am
Where can we find recent polling for Bremen and Hamburg?

Here. (http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/index.htm)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: solarstorm on September 15, 2014, 12:31:17 am
The next two Lands to hold elections are Hamburg (Feb 2015) and Bremen (May 2015).
If the AfD manages to enter those two states' Bürgerschaften, it won't be possible anymore to imagine the political landscape without them.

But if the other parties continue to refuse to form coalitions with them and essentially ignore them, what role would they have to play? At least until the next parliamentary election?

The same role the Linke has been playing for 9 years.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: solarstorm on September 15, 2014, 02:09:06 am
The Social Democratic voters in Thüringen prefer SPD to continue governing with CDU in a grand coalition.
(Image Link)

When was this poll conducted? Before or after the election?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 15, 2014, 02:12:48 am
When was this poll conducted? Before or after the election?

It's part of the ARD-exit poll:

http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/uvotealbum-196.html


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: solarstorm on September 15, 2014, 02:30:09 am
When was this poll conducted? Before or after the election?

It's part of the ARD-exit poll:

http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/uvotealbum-196.html

Another question, another answer:

(Image Link)

That proves the silliness of polls again...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 15, 2014, 02:32:51 am
When was this poll conducted? Before or after the election?

It's part of the ARD-exit poll:

http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/uvotealbum-196.html

Another question, another answer:

(Image Link)

That proves the silliness of polls again...

Well, this is the answer from ALL people polled, not just SPD-voters ...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: solarstorm on September 15, 2014, 03:05:28 am
Well, this is the answer from ALL people polled, not just SPD-voters ...

I didn't allege inconsistency, but rather silliness.
That one exist poll doesn't say either that the remaining SPD voters oppose a MP Ramelow, they just prefer Lieberknecht.

Another example of its silliness:
27,000 former SPD voters turned towards the Linke, only 12,000 towards the CDU.
What do those exit polls do for the SPD?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on September 15, 2014, 03:32:13 am
The next two Lands to hold elections are Hamburg (Feb 2015) and Bremen (May 2015).
If the AfD manages to enter those two states' Bürgerschaften, it won't be possible anymore to imagine the political landscape without them.

But if the other parties continue to refuse to form coalitions with them and essentially ignore them, what role would they have to play? At least until the next parliamentary election?

That of an opposition party?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Franzl on September 15, 2014, 06:11:56 am
At this point, the AfD has no interest in governing. Why would they?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 15, 2014, 06:53:19 am
Where can we find recent polling for Bremen and Hamburg?

Here. (http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/index.htm)

But:

The most "recent" polls from Hamburg and Bremen are already several months/half a year old, which makes them meaningless, considering AfD's recent surge.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: DL on September 15, 2014, 06:54:48 am
At this point, the AfD has no interest in governing. Why would they?

Isn't the raisin d'être of a political party to be in government and have an impact on public policy?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: politicus on September 15, 2014, 07:06:24 am
At this point, the AfD has no interest in governing. Why would they?

Isn't the raisin d'être of a political party to be in government and have an impact on public policy?

You can have an impact without being in government. Protest parties puts things on the agenda and pressure established parties to change or moderate some of their policies. Just look at the effect of right wing populism on European immigration policy or Greens on SD and Social Liberal environmental policies.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on September 15, 2014, 07:17:27 am
At this point, the AfD has no interest in governing. Why would they?

Isn't the raisin d'être of a political party to be in government and have an impact on public policy?

Not always. Especially when the party in question is still young. If they're electorally successful, they'll eventually end up seeking participation in government at one point though.

In Germany, both the Greens and the PDS/Left had long, internal debates on whether they should join governments. For the whole duration of the 1980, the Green Party was split between a "yes" (the Realos) and a "no" (the Fundis) camp. A conflict which wasn't fully resolved until the early 90s, when the Realo position finally became accepted as the mainstream position within the party and the Fundis started to get replaced by the so-called "Regierungslinke" (Governmental Left).

The PDS/Left went through a similar development, and in this case it isn't even fully resolved to this day with regards to the federal level and also some of the Western states.

A motivation for holding such a position is that the respective party questions the existing party system and considers itself as an alternative to the system at large. If this is the case, there's always a natural resistance against becoming a part of the very system they criticize.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on September 15, 2014, 08:13:42 am
FDP keeps a campaign promise for a change :P :

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Zinneke on September 15, 2014, 09:31:39 am
Where can we find recent polling for Bremen and Hamburg?

Here. (http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/index.htm)

But:

The most "recent" polls from Hamburg and Bremen are already several months/half a year old, which makes them meaningless, considering AfD's recent surge.

AfD will crash in Hamburg for sure, they profit the most from EU. I'm not sure about Bremen's demographics but keep in mind these are two free cities we are talking about and not regions. AfD took votes of Die Linke in the urban centres of the two states here so I can only see the making inroads in Bremen where Die Linke did well 10 years ago.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Beezer on September 15, 2014, 09:35:00 am
Let's not forget that Hamburg gave Richter Gnadenlos almost 20 percent of the vote not too long ago. The East German campaign also wasn't about the euro but instead had more of a law and order flavor to it.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on September 15, 2014, 09:44:16 am
Where can we find recent polling for Bremen and Hamburg?

Here. (http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/index.htm)

But:

The most "recent" polls from Hamburg and Bremen are already several months/half a year old, which makes them meaningless, considering AfD's recent surge.

AfD will crash in Hamburg for sure, they profit the most from EU. I'm not sure about Bremen's demographics but keep in mind these are two free cities we are talking about and not regions. AfD took votes of Die Linke in the urban centres of the two states here so I can only see the making inroads in Bremen where Die Linke did well 10 years ago.
East isn't West


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 15, 2014, 09:54:16 am
I'm pretty sure the AfD will get easily into the Hamburg parliament (senate) early next year.

They will likely get 6-8% and not the 10-12% in the East, but they will easily get in.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Franzl on September 15, 2014, 09:59:01 am
I'm pretty sure the AfD will get easily into the Hamburg parliament (senate) early next year.

They will likely get 6-8% and not the 10-12% in the East, but they will easily get in.

I think the AfD would likely enter in pretty much every Bundesland at this point.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on September 15, 2014, 10:51:03 am
I'm pretty sure the AfD will get easily into the Hamburg parliament (senate) early next year.

They will likely get 6-8% and not the 10-12% in the East, but they will easily get in.

I think the AfD would likely enter in pretty much every Bundesland at this point.

Unless they implode Pirates style.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: politicus on September 15, 2014, 10:56:47 am
I'm pretty sure the AfD will get easily into the Hamburg parliament (senate) early next year.

They will likely get 6-8% and not the 10-12% in the East, but they will easily get in.

I think the AfD would likely enter in pretty much every Bundesland at this point.

Unless they implode Pirates style.

They seem to have a much more solid basis. They are filling an actual void in the German party system.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: solarstorm on September 15, 2014, 11:12:38 am
AfD will crash in Hamburg for sure, they profit the most from EU. I'm not sure about Bremen's demographics but keep in mind these are two free cities we are talking about and not regions. AfD took votes of Die Linke in the urban centres of the two states here so I can only see the making inroads in Bremen where Die Linke did well 10 years ago.

Here are the AfD results of previous Hamburg and Bremen elections:

Hamburg:

Federal election: 4.2%
European election: 6.0%
Local elections: 4.5%

Almost 20% of the Hamburgers voted for the - now abolished - Law and Order Offensive Party (short: "Schill Party") back in 2001. Its chairman, judge Ronald Schill, was known as Richter Gnadenlos ("Judge Merciless").
So yes, the AfD will probably enter the Hamburg Bürgerschaft.

Bremen:

Federal election: 3.7%
European election: 5.8%

Bremen has a special electoral law;
in order to enter the Bürgerschaft a party needs 5% either in Bremen City (or whatever it's called in English) or in Bremerhaven. The law-and-order party Bürger in Wut ("enraged citizens") made it twice into the parliament thanks to this rule. But their votes are likely to turn towards the AfD next year.
So yes, the AfD will obviously enter the Bremen Bürgerschaft.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: solarstorm on September 15, 2014, 11:20:28 am
I'm pretty sure the AfD will get easily into the Hamburg parliament (senate) early next year.

They will likely get 6-8% and not the 10-12% in the East, but they will easily get in.

The Senate is the executive branch in Hamburg, Bremen and Berlin.
I'm dubious about the AfD entering the Hamburg Senate...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Beezer on September 15, 2014, 01:28:25 pm
I'm pretty sure the AfD will get easily into the Hamburg parliament (senate) early next year.

They will likely get 6-8% and not the 10-12% in the East, but they will easily get in.

I think the AfD would likely enter in pretty much every Bundesland at this point.

Unless they implode Pirates style.

The Pirates were a fad, mainly supported by young voters. The AfD on the other hand - as mentioned a couple of posts above - fills a void that's been left by both the CDU and FDP. Moreover it's full of season political veterans who won't make the same mistakes that the Pirates committed. I also think the party will now become a more attractive option for more moderate disillusioned conservative voters who up until now might have been put off by the general image of the AfD as some sort of lunatic fringe party. After winning around 10% of the vote in 3 successive state elections it's obvious to everyone that this isn't a far-right Neo-Nazi outfit so those more moderate activists might give the party a try, in the process moving its center of gravity even further away from the right-wing populist fringe.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on September 15, 2014, 01:50:06 pm
Let's not forget that Hamburg gave Richter Gnadenlos almost 20 percent of the vote not too long ago.

That was 12 days after a couple of former Hamburg residents crashed two planes into the World Trade Center though.

I'm not saying that the AfD won't make it to the state parliament there. But I don't see how Schill's election result from 2001 is any useful indicator here. Their chances are as good there as in any other West German state.

(If anything Ronald Schill's recent tenure in the Big Brother house should be reminder for any Hamburgian voter, not to support right-wing populists again. :P )


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: palandio on September 15, 2014, 03:15:48 pm
...
I also think the party will now become a more attractive option for more moderate disillusioned conservative voters who up until now might have been put off by the general image of the AfD as some sort of lunatic fringe party. After winning around 10% of the vote in 3 successive state elections it's obvious to everyone that this isn't a far-right Neo-Nazi outfit so those more moderate activists might give the party a try, in the process moving its center of gravity even further away from the right-wing populist fringe.
My perception is quite different. Winning 10% or not does not prove anything regarding Neo-Nazi or not. (I think they are not Neo-Nazis, except for maybe some single members.)
The 2013 AfD federal campaign was mainly about being anti-Euro to the extent that many called them a single issue party. Other proposals were p.e. allowing asylum seekers to work and so on, only (seemingly) moderate proposals, to make the AfD seem like a socially acceptable, reasonable choice.
Since then a broader part of their program has become visible (which of course was already there last year). The AfD has become a platform for all kinds of reactionaries, ultra-conservative economists and the Christian Right.
The regional chapters in the East, e.g. Saxony, are the most right-leaning ones. Being the only ones with parliamentary representation for the moment (except for the EP), they will gain even more public attention and influence within the party.
I do not think that this will necessarily harm the AfD's prospects. There is enough space for a right-wing reactionary party in Germany, though I still wonder whether all of their voters understand the AfD's economic agenda and if they understood, whether they would still vote AfD.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Beezer on September 15, 2014, 03:44:55 pm
But I don't see how Schill's election result from 2001 is any useful indicator here. Their chances are as good there as in any other West German state.

My post was in response to someone who argued that the AfD won't be all that successful in Hamburg. The primary point I was trying to convey is that even in a relatively affluent left-leaning city state like Hamburg, right-wing populist parties can do well...extremely well actually. Will the AfD repeat Schill's result and get 20%? Probably not. But they should have a pretty decent shot at making it into parliament considering that in the past Hamburgers have shown their affinity for a "law and order" party.

BTW, since you mentioned 9/11...Schill's party was polling at around 15% well before Atta and his pals flew into the WTC.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: swl on September 16, 2014, 03:52:12 am
Where dis AfD votes come from?

(Image Link)

Quote
This reflects the nature of the AfD campaign in these areas which combined an explicit pitch to Die Linke voters emphasising Ostalgie (nostalgia for East Germany), AfD's opposition to TTIP and to the sanctions on Russia with more traditional 'small c' conservative messages on crime and immigration (for example, AfD wants to re-impose border checks). On the whole, the question of Europe and the euro barely featured.

http://openeuropeblog.blogspot.nl/


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Khristie Kreme Donuts on September 16, 2014, 03:51:42 pm
Is there any word on whether the Thuringia government will be CDU-SPD or Linke-SPD-Grune yet?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: jaichind on September 16, 2014, 05:55:00 pm
The blue color denotes a win by Christoph Schulze of the Vereinigte Bürgerbewegungen / Freie Wähler ("Citizens' Movement / Free Voters) in Teltow-Fläming III. He used to be a member of the SPD and a member of the Green faction (not the party). He has been a member of the Brandenburg Landtag since 1990.
This CD win by a minor results in a exemption of the 5% threshold for the BVB/FW, which gets 3 seats as a consequence.

Why does FW get an exemption from the 5% threshold?   I know that SSW in Schleswig-Holstein  get an exemption because of the Danish minority protection clause.  But what is the reason for FW here and how come they get such an exemption in Brandenburg.  And if so do they get the same exemption in other parts of Germany.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: sirius3100 on September 16, 2014, 06:07:55 pm
They got the exemption because Christoph Schulze won a FPTP seat. At the federal level you need 3 FPTP seats so that the 5% treshold isn't applied (basically assuring that the CSU will always get in the Bundestag) but in Brandenburg one seat is enough.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on September 17, 2014, 03:25:42 am
Is there any word on whether the Thuringia government will be CDU-SPD or Linke-SPD-Grune yet?

No.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Franzl on September 23, 2014, 05:02:13 pm
Federal poll from Forsa:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 22%
AfD: 10%
Linke: 9%
Grüne: 8%

FDP: 2%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on September 24, 2014, 12:20:53 am
They got the exemption because Christoph Schulze won a FPTP seat. At the federal level you need 3 FPTP seats so that the 5% treshold isn't applied (basically assuring that the CSU will always get in the Bundestag) but in Brandenburg one seat is enough.
This.

Interestingly, only Brandenburg, Berlin, Schleswig-Holstein (1 seat) and Saxony (2 seats) have those Grundmandatsklauseln in their state electoral law.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on September 24, 2014, 04:21:24 am
Federal poll from Forsa:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 22%
AfD: 10%
Linke: 9%
Grüne: 8%

FDP: 2%
At this point we can wonder WHAT in the f**ing world would weaken CDU-CSU's score federally ?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: politicus on September 24, 2014, 04:31:52 am
Federal poll from Forsa:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 22%
AfD: 10%
Linke: 9%
Grüne: 8%

FDP: 2%
At this point we can wonder WHAT in the f**ing world would weaken CDU-CSU's score federally ?

A credible SPD with a genuine plan for what to do with the country?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on September 24, 2014, 04:59:36 am
Federal poll from Forsa:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 22%
AfD: 10%
Linke: 9%
Grüne: 8%

FDP: 2%
At this point we can wonder WHAT in the f**ing world would weaken CDU-CSU's score federally ?

A credible SPD with a genuine plan for what to do with the country?
HAHAHAHAHAHA !!!!!!!!!!!!!! I just died.



Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on September 24, 2014, 06:03:41 am
It's interesting that the Alliance has not put the slightest dent on the CDU's numbers.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: sirius3100 on September 24, 2014, 07:01:21 am
It's interesting that the Alliance has not put the slightest dent on the CDU's numbers.
Alliance?

Also Forsa tends to always have the poll results which are most newsworthy. Once elections near the are more or less in line with the other pollsters, but I don't really trust Forsa results when the next election is far away.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on September 24, 2014, 07:02:19 am
It's interesting that the Alliance has not put the slightest dent on the CDU's numbers.

If you mean the Alternative, analysis of the recent Bundestag, European, and state elections have shown that the AfD significantly drains votes from the CDU. Former CDU voters usually constitute either the largest or the second-largest group of AfD supporters in all these elections.

At the same time, the CDU has also made gains from other parties though. Primarily from the FDP, in fact. So, we're witnessing a bit of a realignment.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: politicus on September 24, 2014, 07:30:08 am
Federal poll from Forsa:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 22%
AfD: 10%
Linke: 9%
Grüne: 8%

FDP: 2%

So centre-right + right = 54% and centre-left + left is 39%, that leaves 7%. Where do they go?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 24, 2014, 07:38:20 am
Federal poll from Forsa:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 22%
AfD: 10%
Linke: 9%
Grüne: 8%

FDP: 2%

So centre-right + right = 54% and centre-left + left is 39%, that leaves 7%. Where do they go?

2% Pirates, 1-2% Freie Wähler, 1-2% NPD, 2% other small parties


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: politicus on September 24, 2014, 07:43:19 am
Federal poll from Forsa:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 22%
AfD: 10%
Linke: 9%
Grüne: 8%

FDP: 2%

So centre-right + right = 54% and centre-left + left is 39%, that leaves 7%. Where do they go?

2% Pirates, 1-2% Freie Wähler, 1-2% NPD, 2% other small parties

Germany seems to be roughly 40/60 left-right (in the crudest sense of those terms) at the moment. It seems centrist voters invariably break to the right.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on September 24, 2014, 08:38:25 am
Actually the current left/right proportions in Germany are not so much a result of centrist voters breaking to the CDU/CSU. They are at least as much the result of a massive voter demobilization on the left. Note that in 2002 CDU+CSU+FDP had 22 million votes and that this was less than SPD+Greens. Since then CDU+CSU+FDP have gone down to 20 million votes and yet SPD+Greens is not a realistic option on the federal level anymore.

(The AfD of course drains voters not only from FDP, CDU and CSU, but also from Left and SPD and therefore the AfD has shifted the political  landscape slightly to the right. I wouldn't call these swing voters centrists though.)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: politicus on September 24, 2014, 09:07:49 am
Actually the current left/right proportions in Germany are not so much a result of centrist voters breaking to the CDU/CSU. They are at least as much the result of a massive voter demobilization on the left. Note that in 2002 CDU+CSU+FDP had 22 million votes and that this was less than SPD+Greens. Since then CDU+CSU+FDP have gone down to 20 million votes and yet SPD+Greens is not a realistic option on the federal level anymore.

(The AfD of course drains voters not only from FDP, CDU and CSU, but also from Left and SPD and therefore the AfD has shifted the political  landscape slightly to the right. I wouldn't call these swing voters centrists though.)

That's interesting, but natural given the sort of policies SPD has advocated (and implemented while in government).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on September 24, 2014, 11:06:12 am
In the 2013 Bundestag election, the AfD had received most of their votes from: FDP, Left, CDU (in that order)

2014 European
1) CDU
2) SPD
3) Left

2014 Saxony
1) Other parties (NPD not included)
2) CDU
3) FDP

2014 Brandenburg
1) Left
2) CDU
3) FDP

2014 Thuringia
1) CDU
2) Left
3) Non-voters/SPD (tie)

Usually, the AfD seems to gain most of their votes from the CDU and the Left. Both is easily explained. They win right-wing conservatives from the CDU who think that their party has moved too far to the center, in addition to anti-establishment (and anti-EU) protest voters who jump on the newest populist bandwaggon.

They had a particularly strong showing with FDP voters in the 2013 Bundestag election, but this correlation became less important since then. Former FDP supporters still make up their third-most important source of votes overall. Motivations are probably similar to that of former CDU voters who crossed over to the AfD camp (aside from the fact that a vote for the FDP has largely become a "wasted" vote).

The fourth most supportive group are SPD voters, which seems a bit puzzling at first look, but you have to keep in mind that there's also a certain right-wing element existent within the SPD and among its supporters (Thilo Sarrazin, anyone?). The AfD's particularly strong showing among SPD voters in the European Parliament election is perhaps also an indication that SPD voters are less supportive of the European Union than the party itself.

Greens usually hate the AfD, and the feeling is mutually returned.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on September 24, 2014, 12:09:27 pm
It's interesting that the Alliance has not put the slightest dent on the CDU's numbers.
Alliance?

Well this is awkward :/


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on September 25, 2014, 12:51:50 am
The migration of 39.000 "other" voters to the AfD in Saxony is quite doubtful, of course. I would guess that there are at least some proxy 2009 NPD votes in there. There isn't much room for that. Of the small right wing parties DSU is stable, the NPD offshoot SVP (Sächsische Volkspartei - Saxonian People's Party) has merged into the "pro movement" and got there votes.  "Freie Sachsen" in 2009 was merely a Freie Wähler proxy, and they got more votes in 2014 than their antecessors.
Small right wing parties not competing this time (PBC, REP, FPD [sic],)  added to about 12.000 in 2009
So the possiblities were the missing votes come from (other than proxy NPD) would be:
* Tierschutpartei (Animal protection): They lost half of their 36000 votes and are quite socially conservative (but I'm not sure many of their voters are aware of that)
* Some Pirate voters of 2009 (I quess, most of them went crazy with Sonneborn this time, but maybe I'm wrong). The areas Pirates are strong are not the typical AfD ones.
* Freie Sachsen: If their voters of 2009 differ much from "Free voters" supporters in 2014, but actually I see not much room for that


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 29, 2014, 02:24:11 am
Germany seems to be roughly 40/60 left-right (in the crudest sense of those terms) at the moment. It seems centrist voters invariably break to the right.

More like 52-46 for the Right, according to the latest polls.

Austria is 60-40 for the Right though.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: politicus on September 29, 2014, 05:05:28 am
Germany seems to be roughly 40/60 left-right (in the crudest sense of those terms) at the moment. It seems centrist voters invariably break to the right.

More like 52-46 for the Right, according to the latest polls.

Austria is 60-40 for the Right though.

I said "in the crudest sense" and its a matter of the left-right definition. In the polls I commented on it was true counting Linke, Greens ad SPD as Left and the rest as Right.

I guess I will land in the Irony Ore Mine if I say, "do you have to involve  Austria in everything", so I wont. ;).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics (State elections in Brandenburg and Thüringen!)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 29, 2014, 05:16:04 am
Germany seems to be roughly 40/60 left-right (in the crudest sense of those terms) at the moment. It seems centrist voters invariably break to the right.

More like 52-46 for the Right, according to the latest polls.

Austria is 60-40 for the Right though.

I said "in the crudest sense" and its a matter of the left-right definition. In the polls I commented on it was true countng Linke, Greens ad SPD as Left and the rest as Right.

I guess I will land in the Irony Ore Mine if I say, "do you have to involve  Austria in everything", so I wont. ;).

Not in everything, but still a lot of times ... :P


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on September 29, 2014, 11:33:34 am
Last thing I heard from Thuringia was that SPD and Greens had demanded from the Left that all three parties sign a document in which the former East German regime is declared a dictatorship as a pre-condition for forming a governing coalition in this state.

The Left's leadership is generally okay with this, but it seemed to spark a bit of a revolt at the Left's base. Which forced the party leadership to relativize the meaning of the document to calm things down. Which in turn caused the Greens to threaten the end of the coalition talks.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on September 29, 2014, 01:38:35 pm
Last thing I heard from Thuringia was that SPD and Greens had demanded from the Left that all three parties sign a document in which the former East German regime is declared a dictatorship as a pre-condition for forming a governing coalition in this state.

The Left's leadership is generally okay with this, but it seemed to spark a bit of a revolt at the Left's base. Which forced the party leadership to relativize the meaning of the document to calm things down. Which in turn caused the Greens to threaten the end of the coalition talks.

Typical. I already thought that would happen.

The best thing would be to implement CDU-SPD again in that state, it worked in the last term (Thüringen even achieved a 400-500 Mio. € surplus last year, which is not bad for a small state like this, half of which was used for investments and half to pay down debt.)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on September 29, 2014, 02:37:51 pm
It seems a bit bizarre that the parties started to argue over the finer points of history in the coalition talks.

Then again, it was always a potential source of friction between the Left and the Greens, given that the East German Greens trace their roots back to the GDR opposition movement more than any other political party in the former East Germany.

For all intents and purposes, they were once enemies.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: RodPresident on September 29, 2014, 08:37:18 pm
And is Left-SPD-AfD coalition viable?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on September 30, 2014, 12:44:42 am
Quote
And is Left-SPD-AfD coalition viable?
Just no!


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on September 30, 2014, 02:45:20 am

This is in fact the least likely coalition model, by far.

It's relatively safe to say that such a coalition is never going to happen, even if the AfD continues to establish itself successfully and remains a relevant political force for the next decades.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on October 01, 2014, 05:09:45 pm
Right. But AfD offered Ramelow to elect him PM (what he refused, of course).

The AfD was trolling.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on October 02, 2014, 04:42:06 pm
Infratest Dimap federal poll:

CDU/CSU 41%
SPD 24%
Linke 10%
AfD 9%
Grüne 9%

FDP 2%
others 5%

They really really need to start listing FDP under other.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on October 11, 2014, 04:27:45 am
are there any polls for baden-württemberg's next landtag elections yet?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on October 11, 2014, 05:17:56 am
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/baden-wuerttemberg.htm


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on October 11, 2014, 08:23:54 am
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/baden-wuerttemberg.htm
thanks!


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on October 16, 2014, 04:04:29 am
A Left/SPD/Green coalition in Thuringia headed by Bodo Ramelow (Left) seems increasingly likely.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: politicus on October 16, 2014, 04:10:37 am
A Left/SPD/Green coalition in Thuringia headed by Bodo Ramelow (Left) seems increasingly likely.

That's going to be an interesting experiment, but will probably work fine.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on October 16, 2014, 10:22:08 am
Could somebody point me to the nearest interactive clickable constituency map of Bundestag elections ? I was in Berlin last weekend and visited the Deutscher Dom museum about Parliamentarism in Germany, and they had this huge touch-screen map of all results by constituency and erst-stimme/zweite-stimme and I can't get it out of my head. I would have stayed there all afternoon hadn't my wife protested a bit...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on October 18, 2014, 08:14:21 am
^^

Try here...

http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/de/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_13/wahlatlas/start_wahlatlas.html

http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/de/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_09/onlineatlas/start_wahlatlas.html

http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showcandres_btw13.pl?land=btw13


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on October 18, 2014, 08:20:57 am
The results of the SPD "primary" election to determine the successor of retiring Berlin mayor Klaus Wowereit have been announced:


Michael Müller, state minister for urban development - 59.1%

Jan Stöß,  SPD state chairman - 20.9%

Raed Saleh, SPD state parliament caucus leader - 18.7%

Turnout: 65% (members of the Berlin SPD were eligible)


Hence Müller will be nominated by the SPD as the next mayor in the state parliament.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on October 18, 2014, 10:37:57 am
The results of the SPD "primary" election to determine the successor of retiring Berlin mayor Klaus Wowereit have been announced:
Michael Müller, state minister for urban development - 59.1%

Müller was - as far as I know - the most serious/boring candidate, under normal circumstances he would have had no chance, an Anti-Wowereit-vote!

While having a different persona and image, Müller is also known as a close Wowereit protége. So, it's doubtful to which extent it can be really seen as an "anti-Wowereit vote".

The anti-Wowereit candidate in this race was Jan Stöß who's a long-standing Wowereit/Müller rival and had in fact ousted Wowereit's man Müller as state party chairman two years ago in a close ballot.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: solarstorm on October 18, 2014, 11:32:21 am
I think this is the best result one could imagine.
Now those three form a genuine trio: mayor - party leader - faction leader.
Congratulations to the last Social Democratic Berlin Mayor in a long time...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on November 18, 2014, 06:26:09 am
Apparently, the Red-Red-Green coalition talks in Thüringen are almost completed.

They plan to present the coalition contract on Thursday.

Bodo Ramelow (Left Party) to be elected Governor by the new state parliament on Dec. 5


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on November 19, 2014, 05:46:05 pm
Yep, the Linke led red-red-green coalition is happening.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on November 20, 2014, 12:00:34 pm
And here's a map of Germany for our English-speaking friends ;) :

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Cranberry on November 20, 2014, 12:56:43 pm
Butt ann weird ham björk! Hahaha, that one's great! :P



Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on November 21, 2014, 08:59:05 am
Interesting findings. Keep in mind that the numbers depend on the questions they asked and how many you had to get right to become a xenophobe/antisemite. Comparisons between parties and general tendencies in time are a bit more robust, though also the former depend on the questions.

P.S.: My own English is not impeccable and I do not like being a grammar nazi, but the way you are using the word therefor is not only incorrect, but also highly deceptive. Please use something like instead instead.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Hifly on November 24, 2014, 02:48:29 am
I have absolutely no idea what the results of that poll mean; you've presented it in a completely meaningless way.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: swl on November 24, 2014, 04:50:11 am
(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on November 25, 2014, 03:55:20 am
Not that I doubt the results, but n=17 for the NPD (or other small parties) is frankly a joke.

If they wanted to do a legitimate survey, they should have used an oversample for small parties (for example n=500 for all parties).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on November 30, 2014, 08:25:29 am
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm

Currently, the FDP averages about 3% in the federal polls.

The funny thing:

1 major pollster (ZDF's Forschungsgruppe Wahlen) is putting the FDP into the "other" category, unlike other pollsters who still publish separate FDP numbers.

IIRC, the FDP has even sued ZDF/FGW because of this.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on December 05, 2014, 01:34:51 am
The election of the Thuringian Ministerpräsident (Prime minister) will be today. Red-red-green has a majority of just one seat, so it will be interesting, if there are any defections. Expect some constitutional and procedural shenanigans, if defections occur:

There would be three rounds of voting. In the first two rounds an absolute majority of all representatives would be needed. In the third round, the Thuringian state constitution (article 70) states, that the candidate with the most votes is elected. The CDU (and especially the new Landtag president Carius (CDU)) have been presenting creative interpretations of the constituion, the last days: They state, there had to be the possibility of explicitly voting "no", if there is only one contender in the third round because the Landtag rules of procedure say so and Ramelow could not be elected, if there were more "no" than "yes" votes.

Well, the constitution tells otherwise and there is some precedent from Schleswig-Holstein in the fifties, where an election of a minority PM occured under similar rules as the Thuringian constitution has. This also has an equivalent in the Grundgesetz (constitution) of Germany, as the Bundespräsident is allowed (but not has to) to appoint a chancellor that has got the most votes in the third round of voting, but not an outright majority.
 But of course, the Landtag's rules of procedure and the CDU's whish to block the election of the Left Party politician Ramelow are more important than the constitution. ;-)


The session is supposed to begin 10 o'clock am CET. MDR will broadcast the election.
http://www.mdr.de/mediathek/livestreams/fernsehen/livestream-mdr-plus100.html


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on December 05, 2014, 04:35:43 am
Only 45.

Ramelow fails to win in first round.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 05, 2014, 04:40:11 am
Only 45.

Ramelow fails to win in first round.

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on December 05, 2014, 05:02:20 am
And he's been elected...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on December 05, 2014, 05:04:55 am
Ramelow (Linke) has been elected Ministerpräsident of Thüringen in a Linke/SPD/Green coalition.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 07, 2014, 12:33:19 pm
Interesting new poll out of Germany by one of the main pollsters:

What do you think ? Should Germany accept the Krim-Anschluss (annexation) to Russia as a fact and also legally accept it ?

(Image Link)

By party:

(Image Link)

Do you see Putin's current foreign policy as a threat to Germany or not ?

(Image Link)

By party:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on December 07, 2014, 01:24:49 pm
Chart 3 doesn't seem to make much sense with regards to Chart 1.

So both West Germans and East Germans consider Putin as a threat to Germany, but East Germans nevertheless support recognizing the annexation of Crimea, while West Germans don't. Do East Germans think that recognizing the annexation would appease Putin and hence make him less of a threat? :P

The pro-Russian stance of the AfD is interesting, but not entirely surprising either. I think there's usually strong correlation between between the AfD folk and the "don't believe what the mainstream media is telling us (for instance with regards to Ukraine)!" crowd. AfD voters = conspiracy theorists.

It's also fitting that SPIEGEL ONLINE was reporting today that top AfD people are planning to go to the Russian embassy in Berlin for "consultations".


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: C9xV63H5 on December 13, 2014, 02:14:34 pm
In Bavaria (=Bayern state), neo-nazis burned 3 future asyl houses and put Hakenkreuze on the houses walls.

That is so terrible! But nobody was inside, the houses are not open. But still big damage.

I cannot post links of this story it says, must post 20 artciles first. Foto is not working too.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: freefair on December 13, 2014, 11:11:59 pm
Putin's coalition of the sympathetic fringes at it again (nationalists & radical leftist) . I'm sure if the rump FDP voters had been polled they'd have been even more against Putin, being the centre party & all.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 15, 2014, 08:47:29 am
Hamburg will vote in about 2 months and there is a new major poll out by Infratest dimap:

(Image Link)

The SPD remains dominant, but loses the absolute majority. The Left is pretty strong there for a West-German state. AfD is currently not in (5% threshold), but tends to underpoll. FDP is out.

Voters prefer a SPD-Green coalition, if the SPD indeed ends up losing it:

(Image Link)

In the direct vote for Mayor, Scholz (SPD) easily beats the CDU guy:

(Image Link)

Scholz also has the best job approval ratings:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: sirius3100 on December 15, 2014, 12:14:10 pm
mafo.de also made a poll for the Hamburger Morgenpost:

SPD: 42%
CDU: 22%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 8%
AFD: 6%
Neue Liberale: 3%
FDP: 2%
Others: 3%


I'm very happy about the result of the Neue Liberale (New Liberals) in this poll. I hoped that they would get 1% in the actual election, and thus secure public funding. But now there seems to be a real chance that they could get above the 5% threshold. It's the first time that they have been mentioned in a poll, and in the past that and the then increased media coverage sometimes lead to considerable momentum.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 15, 2014, 12:24:19 pm
So the Neue Liberals are social liberals eh? Well good luck to them, but I do wonder whether the niche they want to fill is already occupied by the Greens...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Sozialliberal on December 15, 2014, 06:57:54 pm
That '70s Party

The party Neue Liberale (New Liberal) was founded last September. The initiators were members of the FDP state party of Hamburg who were annoyed at the quarrels within the state party. Besides the FDP, large shares of the New Liberal founding members came also from the Greens, the Pirates and the SPD.

The New Liberal seeks to revive the spirit of the 1970s FDP. They view the decade as "a time when politics was still passionate and progressive, and liberals were regarded as respectable and education-oriented individualists". In contrast to today's FDP, the New Liberals speak a lot about "fighting social injustice". However, it should be noted that Sylvia Canel, one of the two federal chairpeople of the New Liberal, was a member of the economic liberal FDP tendency "Liberaler Aufbruch".

Back in the 1970s, the FDP adopted social liberalism as its party ideology, and formed coalitions with the SPD. However in 1982, the FDP economics minister Lambsdorff handed in a policy paper, which was inspired by Thatcher and Reagan. That was seen as a clear sign of the decline of the social liberal current within the FDP.

The FDP social liberals didn't agree on a joint proceeding after the realignment of their party. Some switched to the SPD (e.g. Günter Verheugen, Ingrid Matthäus-Maier). Some remained in the FDP (e.g. Gerhart Baum, Burkhard Hirsch). Some tried to establish a new party, the Liberal Democrats (Liberale Demokraten), which exists to this day but has never won seats in an election above the district or municipal level. Some left the FDP without joining another party (e.g. Helga Schuchardt). That led to the fragmentation of social liberalism in Germany.

Hamburg should be a good place for a social liberal party for several reasons (urban, university city, centre of trade and commerce, long history of the citizenry). The Hamburg New Liberals chose Isabel Wiest (aged 38, formerly Greens) and Christian Schiller (aged 29, formerly FDP) as their top candidates.

So the Neue Liberals are social liberals eh? Well good luck to them, but I do wonder whether the niche they want to fill is already occupied by the Greens...

It is disputed how liberal the Greens actually are. Some see them as know-alls who want to stipulate how people should live their lives, whereas liberals value freedom of choice. However, the Greens have been talking more about liberty since the FDP ceased to be represented in the Bundestag.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on January 11, 2015, 12:18:02 pm
Hamburg will have a state election in 5 weeks.

13 parties are running:

Quote
  1. Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD)
  2. Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (CDU)
  3. DIE LINKE (DIE LINKE)
  4. Freie Demokratische Partei (FDP)
  5. BÜNDNIS 90/DIE GRÜNEN, Landesverband Hamburg (GRÜNE)
  6. Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)
  7. Piratenpartei Deutschland (PIRATEN)
  8. Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands (NPD)
  9. Partei für Arbeit, Rechtsstaat, Tierschutz, Elitenförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative (Die PARTEI)
10. Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (ÖDP)
11. Rentner Partei Deutschland (RENTNER)
12. Hamburger Bürger-Liste (HHBL)
13. Neue Liberale (Liberale)

Green = already in the state parliament


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on January 14, 2015, 02:36:01 pm
2 Hamburg polls today (I'll just average them):

42.5 SPD
22.5 CDU
14.0 Greens
  7.5 Left
  5.5 AfD
  4.0 FDP
  4.0 Others

The FDP is somehow making a comeback ? Does anyone know why ?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on January 15, 2015, 01:16:42 am
Probably the media attention in the last week (traditional "Dreikönigstreffen" FDP party meeting at the 6th January and the "ARD is filming Katja Suding's (the Hamburg FDP top candidate) legs).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on January 15, 2015, 12:38:12 pm
Probably the media attention in the last week (traditional "Dreikönigstreffen" FDP party meeting at the 6th January and the "ARD is filming Katja Suding's (the Hamburg FDP top candidate) legs).

The ARD people have a feet-fetish ?

LOL.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on January 16, 2015, 12:25:48 pm
2 Hamburg polls today (I'll just average them):

42.5 SPD
22.5 CDU
14.0 Greens
  7.5 Left
  5.5 AfD
  4.0 FDP
  4.0 Others

The FDP is somehow making a comeback ? Does anyone know why ?

All down to the new logo. The Freie Demokraten are also at 4% in the latest Infratest dimap poll (http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/dimap.htm) for the first time in half a year.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on January 18, 2015, 04:42:16 am
2 Hamburg polls today (I'll just average them):

42.5 SPD
22.5 CDU
14.0 Greens
  7.5 Left
  5.5 AfD
  4.0 FDP
  4.0 Others

The FDP is somehow making a comeback ? Does anyone know why ?

All down to the new logo. The Freie Demokraten are also at 4% in the latest Infratest dimap poll (http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/dimap.htm) for the first time in half a year.

They have a new one ? OK, just checked and indeed:

(Image Link)

Also, new federal Emnid poll today (also showing a FDP comeback):

42% CDU/CSU
24% SPD
  9% Greens
  9% Left
  7% AfD
  4% FDP
  5% Others


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on January 22, 2015, 06:14:28 am
It seems, that the "Pegida" movement ("Patriotic Europeans against the isliamisation of the occident" - yes, this is not made up by the Titanic or Postillon satire outfits), that has been dominating (poisoning) the news and political discourse in Germany for the last weeks is about to lose steam.

Since December several thousand people have been marching each Monday in Dresden under this banner, driven by fears of "islamisation", "foreign criminals",asylum seekers, "those damn politicians don't listen to us" etc. We all know the racist and antidemocratic standard phrases and the claim to represent the huge majority that is constituent of European right wing populism. Parts of CDU/CSU have been actually courting them ("One has to take the Ängste of the people serious"). They even have been given a forum in the rooms of the "state central for political education".
Civic society and engagement is weak in Eastern Saxony where the CDU (which is the most right wing of whole Germany) is dominating all branches of government and society, so protests against Pegida only attracted a few thousand people.

The export of the movement has not been very successful, where they mostly comprised of well known organized Nazis and Hooligans, while the Dresden head figures had been unknown to the public, before the movement started. Of course this also influenced their resprective agenda. While in Dresden the official statements have been more diffuse, demonstrations like Kögida (Colognians against...) or Legida "Leipzigers against..." have been much more vocal about their righteous Nazi agenda. And the protests against the Pegida offspring outnumbered them by far.
On the other hand the Dresden organizers try to distance from them to some extent and their also seem to be some pending lawsuits between Dresden and some other gidas.
So their seems to be a real East Saxonian moment in this protests, that underlines the often made points that the lack of a plural and vibrant civic society is fostering right wing populism.

This week now has seen several new developments - that also once more show the pure competence of the Dresden police department. One asylum seeker from Eritrea has been killed last Monday under obscure circumstances - and the first statement the police gave was, that they could absolutely rule out unlawful killing. After 30 hours they suddenly discovered knife stiches all over his body (that had been found bleeding before) and only after that the securing of traces began.

Also on monday they banned ALL demonstrations in Dresden, because of obscure alleged islamist terror threats against the Pegida Führer ... ähm... organisator Lutz Bachmann, as if there wasn't a civil right to demonstrate (or measures of personal security). This pumped up yesterday's Legida demonstration in Leipzig as a substitution for the hard core, that attracted around 6.000-8.000 (which is a tenth of what the organisers had claimed before), but also drew a vital and heavy anti-protest. (Leipzig obviously isn't Dresden, in many respects).
While Pegida leader Bachmann had been trying to distance himself from the more right-wing and violent Leipzig movement he had been supporting them now. And then the pictures and facebook comments went in that see him who claims not to be very right wing posing as the real Führer (with moustache and all) and calling refugees vermin and other very nice things, so he had to resign yesterday (but there others from the organisation circle, that have also come more to the public so Bachmann will probably not be missed (although his persona as an ex-criminal unemployed webdesigner that once fled to South Africa to evade prison has always been very funny concerning his stance against "mooching foreign criminals"). The other funny thing is, that the AfD announced Bachmann's resignation two hours before himself, which on the one hand highlights the connections between both and on the other hand don't know how to gostwrite a PM with the right letterhead is probably  the competence moment of the day.



Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: swl on January 22, 2015, 07:24:25 am
The good thing for Merkel and others is that if AfD anti-euro message is eventually blurred by the anti-Islam borderline-racist message, it will be easy for everyone else to just dismiss them even if they reach 15%.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Thomas from NJ on January 23, 2015, 09:35:37 pm
One asylum seeker from Eritrea has been killed last Monday under obscure circumstances - and the first statement the police gave was, that they could absolutely rule out unlawful killing. After 30 hours they suddenly discovered knife stiches all over his body (that had been found bleeding before) and only after that the securing of traces began.

As it turns out, he was killed by a fellow Eritrean over a financial dispute. The killing had nothing to do with PEGIDA.

http://www.dw.de/arrest-made-over-the-death-of-dresden-asylum-seeker/a-18209972 (http://www.dw.de/arrest-made-over-the-death-of-dresden-asylum-seeker/a-18209972)
http://eastafro.com/Post/2015/01/22/26-year-old-eritrean-arrested-over-khaled-idris-bahrays-germany-killing/ (http://eastafro.com/Post/2015/01/22/26-year-old-eritrean-arrested-over-khaled-idris-bahrays-germany-killing/)

Leftists wrongly assumed that it somehow must have been PEGIDA's fault, and then tried to use it against them.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on January 24, 2015, 07:25:49 am
One asylum seeker from Eritrea has been killed last Monday under obscure circumstances - and the first statement the police gave was, that they could absolutely rule out unlawful killing. After 30 hours they suddenly discovered knife stiches all over his body (that had been found bleeding before) and only after that the securing of traces began.

As it turns out, he was killed by a fellow Eritrean over a financial dispute. The killing had nothing to do with PEGIDA.

http://www.dw.de/arrest-made-over-the-death-of-dresden-asylum-seeker/a-18209972 (http://www.dw.de/arrest-made-over-the-death-of-dresden-asylum-seeker/a-18209972)
http://eastafro.com/Post/2015/01/22/26-year-old-eritrean-arrested-over-khaled-idris-bahrays-germany-killing/ (http://eastafro.com/Post/2015/01/22/26-year-old-eritrean-arrested-over-khaled-idris-bahrays-germany-killing/)

Leftists wrongly assumed that it somehow must have been PEGIDA's fault, and then tried to use it against them.

While Eastern Germany historically had a problem with Neo-Nazis killing asylum seekers, asylum seekers are in fact most likely to be killed by other asylum seekers and not Far-Right wingers.

At least here, there have been numerous cases in which some Afghan asylum seeker killed some Iraqi, Chechens killing each other off because the one fu**ed his sister and is therefore going nuts because of "family honour", etc. etc.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on January 29, 2015, 01:17:47 pm
New Hamburg poll (Infratest dimap for NDR):

44% SPD
20% CDU
13% Greens
  9% Left
  6% AfD
  5% FDP
  3% Others

SPD loses absolute majority. AfD in, FDP back in too (after polling on a low level before).

http://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/hamburg/Zweiter-HamburgTREND-im-Januar-2015,hhwahlumfrage104.html


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on January 30, 2015, 01:20:11 pm
Interesting poll on where Germans place the parties on an ideological line. It illustrates the leftward move of the CDU/CSU which has exposed the party's right flank and has in turn offered a vast tract for the AfD to harvest:

(Image Link)

Detailed picture from the most recent poll:

(Image Link)

Lower line indicates where "AfD-supports see themselves" / "their party" and where the general public places the AfD on the left to right continuum:

If you speak Deutsch check out:

http://www.infratest-dimap.de/uploads/media/LinksRechts2014_AfD.pdf


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Nortexius on January 30, 2015, 01:42:39 pm
New Hamburg poll (Infratest dimap for NDR):

44% SPD
20% CDU
13% Greens
  9% Left
  6% AfD
 5% FDP
  3% Others

SPD loses absolute majority. AfD in, FDP back in too (after polling on a low level before).


Is there any indications that the AFD is underpolling in german polls? I checked the polls before the state elections in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg and they all seemed to underpoll the AFD compared to the final results. It's not unheard of that parties that are critical of immigration, EU and political correctness tend to be underestimated in polls. I know in Sweden the Sweden Democrats were vastly underpolled compared to the final result in the elections last September.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: swl on January 30, 2015, 02:58:09 pm
Nice. My own (from content analysis of manifestos):
(Image Link)
There is not much difference between positions based on the content of manifestos and the perception by the general public, except the gap between left-wing and right-wing parties that seems to be larger.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Thomas from NJ on January 30, 2015, 08:52:52 pm
New Hamburg poll (Infratest dimap for NDR):

44% SPD
20% CDU
13% Greens
  9% Left
  6% AfD
 5% FDP
  3% Others

SPD loses absolute majority. AfD in, FDP back in too (after polling on a low level before).


Is there any indications that the AFD is underpolling in german polls?

It's possible. They outperformed all of their poll results in the 2013 federal election; or at least all of the ones shown here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_German_federal_election,_2013#Party_polling (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_German_federal_election,_2013#Party_polling)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 01, 2015, 04:22:33 am
My results from the Hamburg "Wahl-o-mat":

78.6% New Liberals
75.5% Party for Retired People
74.5% ÖDP
66.3% Pirates
66.3% Left
64.3% Greens
63.3% HHBL
62.2% SPD
62.2% The Party
56.1% CDU
52.0% FDP
49.0% AfD
35.7% NPD

https://www.wahl-o-mat.de/hamburg2015


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on February 01, 2015, 08:17:26 am
Nice. My own (from content analysis of manifestos):
(Image Link)
There is not much difference between positions based on the content of manifestos and the perception by the general public, except the gap between left-wing and right-wing parties that seems to be larger.

Where would be the NPD? Extremely to the right socially but economically? I read their platform once on internet and that was "protecting the german poors blabla".


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 04, 2015, 07:40:14 am
Where would be the NPD? Extremely to the right socially but economically? I read their platform once on internet and that was "protecting the german poors blabla".

Their stance of not giving any welfare, healthcare etc. to immigrants is pretty right-wing again though. So just like with the original Nazis, the NPD's "left-wingness" depends on whether you can prove yourself a true and proper Aryan.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: sirius3100 on February 04, 2015, 11:20:35 am
My Wahl-O-Mat Hamburg results:

76.0%  SPD
72.9%  Piraten
72.9%  Rentner
71.9%  Liberale
70.8%  Die Linke
69.8%  ÖDP
66.7%  Grüne
66.7%  FDP
65.6%  Die Partei
61.5%  CDU
57.3%  HHBL
47.9%  AfD
33.3%  NPD


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Thomas from NJ on February 04, 2015, 10:40:21 pm
My results from the Hamburg "Wahl-o-mat":

78.6% New Liberals
75.5% Party for Retired People
74.5% ÖDP
66.3% Pirates
66.3% Left
64.3% Greens
63.3% HHBL
62.2% SPD
62.2% The Party
56.1% CDU
52.0% FDP
49.0% AfD
35.7% NPD

https://www.wahl-o-mat.de/hamburg2015

My results:

AfD: 67,1%
CDU: 65,8%
NPD: 65,8%
FDP: 63,2%
HHBL: 60,5%
SPD: 47,4%
GRÜNE: 42,1%
DIE LINKE: 26,3%

I did answer with ''Neutral'' to a fair number of the questions.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on February 05, 2015, 04:20:00 am
piraten77,8 %
die linke76,7 %
die partei75,6 %
die grünen67,8 %
spd66,7 %
rentner64,4 %
neue liberale63,3 %
ödp63,3 %
cdu61,1 %
hhbl54,4 %
fdp52,2 %
afd33,3 %
npd31,1 %


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 07, 2015, 12:50:59 pm
The SPD is reportedly trying to hire Obama's former campaign manager and Deputy Chief of Staff Jim Messina as an advisor for the 2017 election in Germany.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/spd-will-chef-wahlkaempfer-von-barack-obama-holen-a-1017178.html


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 07, 2015, 01:50:27 pm
The SPD is reportedly trying to hire Obama's former campaign manager and Deputy Chief of Staff Jim Messina as an advisor for the 2017 election in Germany.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/spd-will-chef-wahlkaempfer-von-barack-obama-holen-a-1017178.html

He gets about doesn't he. Works for the Tories as well.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on February 08, 2015, 03:06:53 pm
The SPD is reportedly trying to hire Obama's former campaign manager and Deputy Chief of Staff Jim Messina as an advisor for the 2017 election in Germany.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/spd-will-chef-wahlkaempfer-von-barack-obama-holen-a-1017178.html
Well, the biggest problem for them is that Merkel is literally a political killer.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Thomas from NJ on February 08, 2015, 03:07:27 pm
Another Hamburg poll.

http://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/hamburg/wahl/Umfrage-SPD-baut-Vorsprung-weiter-aus,umfrage720.html (http://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/hamburg/wahl/Umfrage-SPD-baut-Vorsprung-weiter-aus,umfrage720.html)

SPD: 46%
CDU: 18%
Die Grünen: 11%
Die Linke: 9%
AfD: 5,5%
FDP: 5,5%
Others: 5%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on February 08, 2015, 03:22:56 pm
So have the FDP in Hamburg found a four leaved clover or something?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 09, 2015, 05:08:46 am
So have the FDP in Hamburg found a four leaved clover or something?

Nope, just a woman with some decent legs.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 09, 2015, 05:10:43 am
The SPD is reportedly trying to hire Obama's former campaign manager and Deputy Chief of Staff Jim Messina as an advisor for the 2017 election in Germany.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/spd-will-chef-wahlkaempfer-von-barack-obama-holen-a-1017178.html

Both countries have vastly different electorates and electoral systems so I doubt an American can really bring a lot to the table besides "do more social media stuff." Or maybe I'm just misinterpreting his role as campaign manager...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on February 09, 2015, 05:32:07 am
so basically the instant someone founded a new party to capitalise on the failure of the fdp, it started its resurgence. poor new liberals.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: solarstorm on February 09, 2015, 05:41:47 am
So have the FDP in Hamburg found a four leaved clover or something?

No, the FDP is simply proof that a party just needs to obtrude itself upon the media, and they'll see a boost in the polls, no matter how content-free their program or incompetent their top candidates are...

Btw, you post brings back good memories ... :)

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 11, 2015, 06:05:01 am
FDP @ 5%!

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa.htm


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: sirius3100 on February 12, 2015, 10:23:58 pm
Let me add my prediction:

45% SPD
18% CDU
13% Greens
8% Left
6% AFD
5% FDP
2% Liberals
1% Pirates
2% Others

Turnout: 51%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 13, 2015, 03:42:47 am
A final FGW/ZDF poll was released for Hamburg, so I need to update my prediction:

46.0% SPD (-2.5%)
18.0% CDU (-4.0%)
12.0% Greens (+1.0%)
  8.5% Left (+2.0%)
  5.5% FDP (-1.0%)
  5.5% AfD (+5.5%)
  4.5% Others

Turnout: 55% (-2%)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on February 14, 2015, 09:54:59 am
Here's to hoping the FDP and AFD land at exactly 4.99%.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 14, 2015, 02:25:13 pm
Will be interesting to see if AfD once again fares better than they do in the polls...given this is a western state, could there be more of a shy Tory effect than what we saw in the 3 eastern state elections last year?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on February 14, 2015, 05:33:52 pm
Since it seems likely that AfD will cross 5% since it will likely under-poll.  I guess the make or break for SPD to form a majority government on its on is if FDP can make it past 5%.  I am hoping that it will pass 5% and make a somewhat of a comeback.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 15, 2015, 02:20:00 am
State election in Hamburg today.

For the first time ever, 16 and 17-year olds will be allowed to vote as well.

Polls close @ 6pm local time.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: sirius3100 on February 15, 2015, 04:09:53 am
According to NDR (http://www.ndr.de/info/Letzter-Trend-vor-der-Wahl-in-Hamburg,audio233088.html (http://www.ndr.de/info/Letzter-Trend-vor-der-Wahl-in-Hamburg,audio233088.html); audio only) a last (unpublished) poll by Infratest dimap shows a downward trend for the AFD and an upward trend for FDP. So the AFD might miss the required 5%.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 15, 2015, 06:24:07 am
If there's a last minute "Copenhagen-effect", it probably helps CDU and AfD the most.

But since the CDU polled only 17-19% anymore, an "effect" would probably mean 20%+ or even 21% to be measurable, and ca. 6% for the AfD.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 15, 2015, 06:33:01 am
Hamburg - 11am turnout:

2015: 24.2%
2011: 25.7%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on February 15, 2015, 06:46:04 am
my prediction:

spd 46%
cdu 19%
grüne 13%
linke 7%
afd 5% (above)
fdp 5% (below)
others 5%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: solarstorm on February 15, 2015, 06:54:28 am
State election in Hamburg today.

For the first time ever, 16 and 17-year olds will be allowed to vote as well.

Polls close @ 6pm local time.

And for the first time the Hamburgers elect their representatives for a legislative session of 5 years.

PS: Is "Hamburger" the right term?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: solarstorm on February 15, 2015, 07:28:24 am
My prediction:

SPD: 45%
CDU: 18%
AfD: 10% 😭
Greens: 10%
Left: 8%
FDP: > 5% 😭 😭 😭


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 15, 2015, 07:33:30 am
My prediction:

SPD: 45%
CDU: 18%
AfD: 10% 😭
Greens: 10%
Left: 8%
FDP: > 5% 😭 😭 😭

Nope.

Hamburg ≠ East Germany


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 15, 2015, 07:35:01 am
This is the birthplace of the Schill-Party though... (not that I think the AfD will come anywhere close to 10%).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 15, 2015, 07:41:52 am
This is the birthplace of the Schill-Party though... (not that I think the AfD will come anywhere close to 10%).

That's correct, but I don't see the AfD repeating the Schill result there right after the 9/11 attacks.

The Schill Party got 19% just 2 weeks after the 9/11 attacks and underpolled by 5%.

The AfD polls only 4-6% right now and if we assume a similar %-wise underpolling relative to their actual polling, they will not get more than 7-8% today, even when factoring in the Copenhagen terror attacks.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: solarstorm on February 15, 2015, 07:51:46 am
So have the FDP in Hamburg found a four leaved clover or something?

Nope, just a woman with some decent legs.

Here is, btw, the "delicate" video Beezer was adverting to ... (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYpDd-cC6g8)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 15, 2015, 07:56:29 am
So have the FDP in Hamburg found a four leaved clover or something?

Nope, just a woman with some decent legs.

Here is, btw, the "delicate" video Beezer was adverting to ... (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYpDd-cC6g8)

I'm tempted to do a "hot or not, or just hot enough for the FDP to get 5%+" poll on those legs.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: solarstorm on February 15, 2015, 08:06:56 am
I'm tempted to do a "hot or not, or just hot enough for the FDP to get 5%+" poll on those legs.

And I'm tempted to make a GIF out of that.
But I'm sure you mods would rate it as inappropriate. :P


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on February 15, 2015, 08:28:56 am
Any link to results as they come in?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 15, 2015, 08:45:07 am
Turnout @ 2pm: 38.5% (2011: 43.2%).

http://www.hamburg.de/buergerschaftswahl/4450380/wahlbeteiligung/


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 15, 2015, 08:46:57 am
Any link to results as they come in?

Should be this site: http://www.statistik-nord.de/wahlen/wahlen-in-hamburg/


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 15, 2015, 08:51:23 am
Avg. of the election predictions made over at Wahlrecht.de

http://www.wahlrecht.de/wahltippspiele/hamburg-2015/ausgabe.html

SPD: 45.9
CDU: 19.0
Gr: 11.3
FDP: 5.7
Left: 8.0
AfD: 5.7


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 15, 2015, 11:21:44 am
Turnout @ 5pm: 52.3 % (2011: 58.5%, note that the eventual turnout stood at 57.3% so the 2011 #s overestimated turnout).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on February 15, 2015, 12:01:20 pm
*SPD 46.5%, MERKEL'S CDU 16% IN HAMBURG: ARD CITES EXIT POLLS
*ALTERNATIVE FOR GERMANY PROBABLY WINS SEATS IN HAMBURG: ARD
*FREE DEMOCRATS 7%, GREENS 12%, LEFT 8.5% IN HAMBURG: EXIT POLLS


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 15, 2015, 12:01:56 pm
FDP:7, AfD: 5.2


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on February 15, 2015, 12:03:10 pm
*ANTI-EURO ALTERNATIVE FOR GERMANY POLLING 5.5%, ARD SAYS


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on February 15, 2015, 12:03:54 pm
Looks like SPD will miss absolute majority


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on February 15, 2015, 12:08:15 pm
Interesting how exit poll FDP is doing better than pre-election surveys and AfD exit polls are not doing better than pre-election surveys like expected.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on February 15, 2015, 12:12:19 pm
55% vote participation vs. 57% in 2011


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on February 15, 2015, 12:16:01 pm
Interesting how exit poll FDP is doing better than pre-election surveys and AfD exit polls are not doing better than pre-election surveys like expected.

Agreed. But I really thought that the CDU would do at least slightly better, however, they got absolutely destroyed.

Same here.  Looks like the CDU vote share went over to AfD and to some extent FDP.  SPD in that sense did well as I expected it to lose some votes to AfD but it looks like that did not take place.  Anyway the revival of the FDP plus the rise of AfD means that SPD will not have absolution majority.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 15, 2015, 12:24:05 pm
FDP-Legslide !

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on February 15, 2015, 12:24:44 pm
If these exit polls hold up then this is easily the worst ever results for CDU in Hamburg on top of the 2011 results which was the worst ever.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 15, 2015, 12:26:19 pm
FDP voter movement:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 15, 2015, 12:34:12 pm
First "Hochrechnung" won't be available until 7:15-7:30 local time because of Hamburg's ridiculous 10 vote electoral system.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on February 15, 2015, 12:35:06 pm
No first "Hochrechnung" until 7:15-7:30 local time because of Hamburg's ridiculous 10 vote electoral system.

Please explain what that means ? Does this mean a vote has to be counted 10 times before they release that vote as counted ?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 15, 2015, 12:40:29 pm
Incredibly poor result for the CDU.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 15, 2015, 12:42:07 pm
It should be noted that Hamburg elections are special:

Every voter has 10 votes.

* 5 votes for the state list
* 5 votes for the district candidates

Either you can allocate all 5 votes on each ballot paper to the same party/candidate, or you can distribute your votes to different parties. For example, you can allocate 3 votes to the SPD, 1 vote for Left and 1 for Greens. Or 2 votes CDU, 2 votes SPD, 1 vote AfD - and so on ...

The same for the district ballot paper.

...

This election system is the reason why first predictions by ARD and ZDF should be taken with a grain of salt.

Vote counting will take until midnight (for the fast-track system that will show the seat distribution).

The actual votes will only be counted tomorrow and the final result will be out tomorrow evening !


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 15, 2015, 12:56:34 pm
Well, yes, but the last Hamburg state election was an SPD landslide as well. Normal service has very much reasserted itself.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 15, 2015, 12:58:37 pm
More exit poll results:

- The economy and personality (Scholz) were big reasons for the huge SPD win.
- 23% of all Hamburgers (lol) think the city has too much refugees, however, 59% of all AfD voters think that.

For comparison: These were the 2013 German federal election results in Hamburg:
(Image Link)

The SPD only narrowly beat the CDU by 0,2% in one of their biggest strongholds (that they even managed to lose in 2009). Right now, they are defeating the CDU by 30 points. THAT is what I call an improvement.

Federal elections are a different animal though (kind of like the midterms and presidential elections). The SPD has 9 different state premiers compared to the CDU's five. Yet the SPD is trailing the CDU by close to 20 points at the national level.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: solarstorm on February 15, 2015, 12:59:17 pm
Only 16% of the Hamburgers split the ticket.
The younger the voters, the more did they split their votes.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 15, 2015, 01:03:46 pm
Agreed, it shows you how big the difference between the Hamburg SPD and the national SPD (which is really doomed) is. It doesn't change the fact that the CDU dominance in Germany will fade...

God willing...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 15, 2015, 01:04:47 pm
Mayor Scholz (SPD) gets a 83% (!!!) approval rating.

He gets at least 70% approval from the voters of all parties (and 98% approval from SPD-voters).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 15, 2015, 01:08:28 pm
Mayor Scholz (SPD) gets a 83% (!!!) approval rating.

He gets at least 70% approval from the voters of all parties (and 98% approval from SPD-voters).

And just like Merkel he is bland and dull as hell. Let that be a lesson to all aspiring politicians in Germany...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: solarstorm on February 15, 2015, 01:12:09 pm
The 16- and 17-year-old were allowed to vote for their first time.
5% of them voted Pirates. :)
Also the FDP fared better than average.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 15, 2015, 01:27:19 pm
Hochrechnung (ARD television):

SPD: 47
CDU: 16
Greens: 11.9
FDP: 7.1
Left: 8.6
AfD: 5.3


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 15, 2015, 01:28:36 pm
Hochrechnung (ZDF television):

SPD: 46.7
CDU: 16
Greens: 11.6
FDP: 7.3
Left: 8.8
AfD: 5.4


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 15, 2015, 01:37:51 pm
Lucke, completely at ease during an interview:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 15, 2015, 01:39:07 pm
AfD should be safely in now (ZDF)...

SPD: 46.7
CDU: 15.9
Greens: 11.7
FDP: 7.4
Left: 8.5
AfD: 5.5


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on February 15, 2015, 02:01:39 pm
The results shown in

http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article137442106/Bei-dieser-Hamburg-Wahl-stehen-einige-Premieren-an.html

shows that Others are up 0.9% relative to 2011 which makes no sense if you add up the changes in other parties relative to 2011.  I looked into this and it seems in 2011 the Pirate Party was not part of Others but in 2015 it is.   So Others using 2015 definitions should really be down 1.2% and not up 0.9%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 15, 2015, 02:05:49 pm
885 of 1.780 precincts counted (or 316.960 valid ballots, out of 1.299.411 eligible):

47.0% SPD
16.1% CDU
10.9% Greens
  8.3% Left
  7.0% FDP
  6.6% AfD
  1.5% Pirates
  0.8% The Party
  0.5% New Liberals
  0.4% NPD
  0.4% ÖDP
  0.3% Retirees
  0.2% HHBL

http://www.wahlen-hamburg.de/wahlen.php?site=left/gebiete&wahl=963


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 15, 2015, 02:13:03 pm
AfD does a little better than what the exit-polls show:

Currently 6.6% and they will probably end up between 6 and 6.5% in the end.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 15, 2015, 02:13:26 pm
AfD @ 6.0 percent according to latest ZDF projection.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 15, 2015, 02:17:00 pm
Roughly 62% of the expected vote has now been counted.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 15, 2015, 02:22:36 pm
AfD @ 6% looks most accurate, because the district of Altona is the least-counted so far and the AfD gets only 5.1% there.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on February 15, 2015, 02:23:37 pm
Looks like SPD+Green+Left might not net that much on top of 2011 and might end up losing a bit.    Also both AfD and FDP is doing better than pre-election polls which is a surprise.  I would think one of the two will do better than pre-election polls but for both to do so is a surprise.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 15, 2015, 02:27:47 pm
Turnout seems to come in at ca. 54-55%, a minus of 3% compared with 2011.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 15, 2015, 02:32:34 pm
77% counted:

46.2% SPD
16.2% CDU
11.6% Greens
  8.3% Left
  7.3% FDP
  6.3% AfD
  1.5% Pirates
  0.9% The Party
  0.5% New Liberals
  0.4% ÖDP
  0.3% NPD
  0.3% Retirees
  0.2% HHBL


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 15, 2015, 02:38:12 pm
Looks like SPD+Green+Left might not net that much on top of 2011 and might end up losing a bit.    Also both AfD and FDP is doing better than pre-election polls which is a surprise.  I would think one of the two will do better than pre-election polls but for both to do so is a surprise.

Well, the FDP did better than expected because Katja Suding is a great lead candidate (with hot legs !).

And the AfD might or might not have benefitted from the Copenhagen attacks, who knows ? Maybe it was also just their usual underpolling ahead of an election.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on February 15, 2015, 02:48:33 pm
Latest ZDF projections has FDP 7.4 and AfD at 6.1.  I always saw AfD being able to do well by cannibalizing FDP votes which is why I thought it was not possible for both to exceed pre-election polls.  Getting votes from CDU did not look likely to me giving how low they went in 2011 and that CDU is still riding high nationally.  Seems like that is what took place with FDP and AfD both gaining from CDU.   


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 15, 2015, 02:58:01 pm
Latest ZDF projections has FDP 7.4 and AfD at 6.1.  I always saw AfD being able to do well by cannibalizing FDP votes which is why I thought it was not possible for both to exceed pre-election polls.  Getting votes from CDU did not look likely to me giving how low they went in 2011 and that CDU is still riding high nationally.  Seems like that is what took place with FDP and AfD both gaining from CDU.   

Voter streams for AfD (2011 voters => 2015 AfD vote):

(Image Link)

The 2015 AfD-vote consists mostly of former voters of "other parties" (remember that the NPD only has 0.3% right now, but 0.9% in 2011).

Followed by former CDU, SPD and non-voters.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Vosem on February 15, 2015, 02:58:10 pm

Fantastic! Very excited for the revival.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 15, 2015, 03:05:46 pm
93% counted:

45.8% SPD
16.0% CDU
12.0% Greens
  8.5% Left
  7.4% FDP
  6.1% AfD
  1.5% Pirates
  0.9% The Party
  0.5% New Liberals
  0.4% ÖDP
  0.3% NPD
  0.3% Retirees
  0.2% HHBL


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 15, 2015, 03:10:58 pm
93% counted:

45.8% SPD
16.0% CDU
12.0% Greens
  8.5% Left
  7.4% FDP
  6.1% AfD
  1.5% Pirates
  0.9% The Party
  0.5% New Liberals
  0.4% ÖDP
  0.3% NPD
  0.3% Retirees
  0.2% HHBL

my prediction:

46.0% SPD (-2.5%) *nailed it
18.0% CDU (-4.0%) * off by 2.0
12.0% Greens (+1.0%) *nailed it
  8.5% Left (+2.0%) *nailed it
  5.5% FDP (-1.0%) *off by 2.0
  5.5% AfD (+5.5%) * off by 0.5
  4.5% Others * off by 0.5

Turnout: 55% (-2%) *nailed it


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franzl on February 15, 2015, 04:40:13 pm
lol St. Pauli

Linke 29,1
SPD 26,0
Grüne 24,7
Piraten 4,5
Die Partei 4,2
CDU 4,0


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on February 15, 2015, 05:00:49 pm
lol St. Pauli

Linke 29,1
SPD 26,0
Grüne 24,7
Piraten 4,5
Die Partei 4,2
CDU 4,0


Counter-Poland.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 15, 2015, 05:04:21 pm
lol St. Pauli

Linke 29,1
SPD 26,0
Grüne 24,7
Piraten 4,5
Die Partei 4,2
CDU 4,0


Counter-Poland.

Actually, St. Pauli is the Kreuzberg of Hamburg.

There seems to have been a big shift from the SPD to the Left Party though. In 2011, the SPD won 37% and the Left 20% there.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: solarstorm on February 15, 2015, 06:03:34 pm
One of the most famous candidates that could profit by the complex, but interchangeable voting system could be Inge Hannemann, who has been labeled "Hartz IV rebel" by the tabloid press.
She became famous nationwide after she got suspended from her office in a job center because she refused to impose sanctions on her unemployed clients. Hannemann is also an advocate of the idea of the unconditional basic income.
She is independent, but has been a member of the Altona district parliament for the Left since last year.
Now she is seeking membership of the Hamburg Bürgerschaft by running on the state list of the Left - on number 13.
The Left is being allocated 11 seats at this juncture. There's a realistic chance of her benefiting from the possibility of vote splitting.

Update: She did it. The complex voting system truly helped her.

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franknburger on February 15, 2015, 07:55:12 pm
A few more district highlights:

Kleiner Grasbrook (the single precinct district in the port area that was won by the Linke in the 2013 federal election):
Linke     31.9 (+12.6)
SPD       19.2 (-16.9)
Grüne    15.7 (- 3.4)
PARTEI  11.4 (+ 6.1)
Pirates   11.0 (- 1.0)
CDU        3.2 (- 2.1)
FDP        2.6 (+ 1.0)
AFD        1.6

Veddel (just next door, also in the port area, highest share of foreigners/ voters with migration background) - 2 precincts:
SPD       38.2 (- 4)
Linke     21.9 (+6)
Grüne    15.4 (--)
Pirates    5.8 (-7.3)
PARTEI   4.7 (+2.1)
AFD        4.4
FDP        3.6 (+1.9)
CDU       3.1 (- 2.4)

Billbrook (industrial area with dispersed housing, includes largest housing of asylum-seekers, AFD stronghold in the 2013 federal election) - 2 precincts:
SPD      48.9 (-2.5)
AFD      13.9
CDU     10.6 (- 6.3)
Linke     8.9 (--)
Pirates   6.0 (+1.5)
FDP       4.8 (+2.0)
Grüne    4.1 (-2.4)
NPD       0.0 (-5.3)->AFD collecting the right-wingers!

Billstedt (not quite as sh**tty as nearby Billbrook, but still very much blue collar/ low income) - 42 precincts
SPD     55.4 (-1.5)
CDU     13.1 (-7.0)
AFD     10.1
Linke    7.9 (+0.5)
Grüne   5.0 (-0.4)
FDP      4.6 (+0.5)

Sternschanze (next to St.Pauli, close to the University. alternative, but under gentrification pressurce) - 4 precincts:
Linke    29.1 (+ 9.3)
SPD     26.7 (-11.2)
Grüne  26.6 (+ 1.9)
Pirates   4.8 (- 0.7)
FDP       3.7 (+ 0.9)
PARTEI  3.6 (- 0.4)
CDU      3-0 (- 1.1)
AFD       1.2

Rahlstedt (middle-class suburb, mix of individual housing and appartment blocks, Olaf Scholz'[and my] home district, most populous district of Hamburg - this is where elections are decided. Narrowly won by the CDU in 2013) - 65 precincts
SPD      52.9 (+0.2)
CDU     16.7 (- 6.9)
Grüne    7.3 (+0.3)
AFD       7.3
FDP       6.6 (--)
Linke     5.8 (+0.5)
Caution - almost 30% vote-by-mail not included here. Vote-by-mail in Rahlstedt has similar trends, but CDU substantially stronger (23.5) and SPD (48.4), but also Grüne (6.1) and Linke (4.5) weaker. AFD is slightly stronger in vote-by-mail (7.6) than on the ballot box.


Harvestehude (posh inner-city area at the Alster lake, close to the University, but also large appartment blocks further away from the lake - traditional FDP stronghold) - 15 precincts
SPD     37.8 (-3.6)
CDU     17.8  (-5.4)
FDP     16.8 (+3.9)
Grüne  13.2 (-0.1)
Linke     7.6 (+2.3)
AFD      3.7

Nienstedten (even more upper-scale area on the bank of the Elbe - in the 2013 federal election, it voted 50% CDU, and 11% FDP) -  5 precincts:
SPD      36.2 (+1.6)
FDP      22.9 (+5.6)
CDU     19.9 (-12.0)
Grüne   11.9 (+1.4)
AFD       4.6
Linke     2.2 (+0.2)

Tatenberg (one of the marsh villages to the east, lots of greenhouse horticulture, strongest CDU district [53.2] in the 2013 federal election) - 1 precinct
SPD     44.2 (+7.7)
CDU     28.7 (-10.7)
Linke     9.2 (+3.5)
Grüne    7.0 (- 5.7)
AFD       4.7
FDP       2.7 (+0.2)
 


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: solarstorm on February 15, 2015, 08:22:58 pm
Franknburger. I missed you so much. :(
I was about to ask where you've been, as a Hamburger like you could attribute to this topic firsthand.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Boston Bread on February 15, 2015, 08:55:27 pm
I'm guessing right-wing parties didn't win a single precinct this time? That would make up for the fact that both AfD and FDP got in.
And I prefer SPD-Grune over an SPD majority so I'd call this a good election!


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franknburger on February 16, 2015, 01:15:28 am
Had to take a break from the Forum, for a number of reasons. I will probably in future not contribute as extensively as in 2013/ early 2014, but for a Hamburg election, I of course need to be here..

I'm guessing right-wing parties didn't win a single precinct this time? That would make up for the fact that both AfD and FDP got in.
Not quite right. I checked some of the usual suspects:

Precinct 21906 (Othmarschen) - a very posh part of the Elbchausse, the area just east of the Jenischpark, up to the Großflottbek golf course. As expenisve as Hamburg can get:
FDP      33.6 (+ 6.9)
SPD      30.0 (+3.7)
CDU     22.4 (-14.6)
Grüne    6.7 (- 0.5)
AFD       5.8
Linke     0.8 (-0.4)

Neighnouring precinct 21905 to the east, also covering the poshest part of the Elbchausse, but a bit closer to green-alternative Ottensen, was narrowly taken by the FDP (29.5%), with SPD at 28.5, CDU at 21.4 (-13.8 ), Grüne at 10.1, Linke at 4.3 and AFD at  2,8.
However, precinct 22202, just west of the Jenischpark, also very upscale, and including an upcale private home for elderly, went 39% SPD (FDP 23, CDU 20, Grüne 8, AFD 6, Linke 1.5). in 2011, the CDU still won the precinct with 38%, in the 2013 federal election they carried it with 55%. Candidates matter, and seniors appear to have flocked back to a Helmut Schmidt-type, gaffe-free, prgamatist and centrist social democrate, who doesn't talk about increasing taxes.
There are nevertheless a handful of other precincts further down the Elbe that the SPD only took very narrowly, e.g. 22308 (Blankenese - Falkensteiner Ufer), with SPD at 29.0 vs. FDP at 28.7 (CDU 17.8, Grüne 12.5, AFD 6.4).

Over to the Alster:

Precinct 41306 (Winterhude) - the norhtern end of the Alster lake, also extremely posh. A bit more inland, there is nice late 19th-century appartment housing, so voting is a bit more inner-city-ish than on the Elbchaussee:
CDU    30.2 (-5.0)
SPD     27.9 (-3.9)
FDP     26.2 (+2.1)
Grüne   5.5 (+1.6)
Linke    4.8 (+2.3)
AFD      3.1
In the federal election 2013, it was 55% CDU, 13% FDP, and - interestingly - 7% AFD. In Hamburg, foregners are not a threat, but the source of wealth (and the main mosque, established in the 1950s by Iranian carpet traders, is just a bit further down the east bank of the Alster).

Precinct 31202 (Rotherbaum) -  the southwestern end of the Alster lake, close to the University, and also to downtown. More penthouse style, few villas. Traditionally home to the Jewish community, which traditionally votes FDP. While the SPD was the strongest party, FDP & CDU together almost reached 50%.
SPD      32.7 (-4.4)
FDP      25.3 (+8.6)
CDU     23.7 (-7.8 )
Grüne    7.8 (+0.5)
AFD       5.4
Linke     3.3 (-0.4)

Precinct 31404 (Harvestehude) - a bit further north along the western bank of the Alster lake:
CDU     31.4 (-1.3)
FDP      27.1 (+6.0)
SPD      25.9 (-8.5)
Grüne     5.8 (-1.9)
AFD        4.3
Linke      3.9 (+2.1)

Precinct 31308 (Harvestehude) - adjacent to the north, also along the western bank of the Alster lake:
CDU     33.7 (+1.7)
FDP      26.4 (+4.9)
SPD      24.1 (-8.6)
AFD        7.0
Grüne     4.6 (-3.2)
Linke      2.8 (+0.1)

Don't know why in the last  two precincts the CDU held so well, and the SPD lost so heavily. Probably a local issue (bus fast-tracking obsessing car owners?).
  
But that, indeed, seems to be it. Even the posher part of the HafenCity (10301) voted 43.3% SPD (FDP 21.2, Grüne 12.8, CDU 12.7, Linke 5.1, AFD 3.6). And the SPD swept the marsh villages, traditional CDU strongholds (not htat there are may voters, but anyway..)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 16, 2015, 07:54:58 am
A lot of speculation in the media whether Olaf Scholz could become the SPD's next Chancellor-candidate. Of course, I remember the same debate happening exactly four years ago. And at the same time, there are also editotirals discussing how someone as bland as Olaf Scholz can achieve such overwhelming election victories.

Well, it's Hamburg, stupid. :P And at least Scholz isn't known to be completely incompetent.

But to speculate whether he could become Chancellor-candidate is almost like discussing whether the Bavarian minister-president is a shoe-in as CDU/CSU Chancellor-candidate, only because he happens to win by such huge margins in his state.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on February 16, 2015, 09:36:22 am
Scholz would just happen to be Steinbrück reloaded in so many ways.

On the other hand, there seems to be some discussion, weither Scholz is "SPD's Merkel" or at least is "acting like Merkel" in a political sense, which seems to be very far fetched for me.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on February 16, 2015, 10:02:02 am
How did the CDU manage to basically lose 30 points?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 16, 2015, 12:02:02 pm
How did the CDU manage to basically lose 30 points?

A) Mayor Scholz (SPD) is massively popular (83% approval rating among all voters)

B) The CDU-candidate (whatshisname ?) is basically unknown to voters

C) The FDP had a solid and media-savvy frontrunner and the party cut into the CDU-vote

D) The AfD cut into the CDU vote

E) There was no desire for change, because the Hamburg economy does well and voters thought the SPD was doing a good job not only on this issue but also with all other important issues


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 16, 2015, 12:09:41 pm
Final Hamburg results:

45.7% SPD (-2.7%)
15.9% CDU (-6.0%)
12.3% Greens (+1.1%)
  8.5% Left (+2.1%)
  7.4% FDP (+0.7%)
  6.1% AfD (+6.1%)
  1.6% Pirates (-0.5%)
  0.9% The Party (+0.2%)
  0.5% New Liberals (+0.5%)
  0.4% ÖDP (+0.1%)
  0.3% NPD (-0.6%)
  0.3% Retirees (-0.2%)
  0.2% HHBL (+0.2%)
  0.0% Others (-1.0%)

Turnout: 56.9% (-0.4%)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: solarstorm on February 16, 2015, 07:28:07 pm
How did the CDU manage to basically lose 30 points?

A) Mayor Scholz (SPD) is massively popular (83% approval rating among all voters)

B) The CDU-candidate (whatshisname ?) is basically unknown to voters

C) The FDP had a solid and media-savvy frontrunner and the party cut into the CDU-vote

D) The AfD cut into the CDU vote

E) There was no desire for change, because the Hamburg economy does well and voters thought the SPD was doing a good job not only on this issue but also with all other important issues

F) People currently don't know what the CDU stands for.

(Image Link)

G) The SPD outperforms the CDU in all their core competencies: economy and fight against crime

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on February 17, 2015, 01:13:12 am
On the other hand, noone knows what Angela Merkel's CDU stands for and they are very successful at the federal level. ;-)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 17, 2015, 05:43:19 am
On the other hand, noone knows what Angela Merkel's CDU stands for and they are very successful at the federal level. ;-)

In a way, Angela Merkel's administration is the quintessential "conservative" government. They stand for stability, safety, and reliability. Nothing fancy, nothing radical, no risks. They're the Volkswagen among governments. :P The downside of course is that it is also horribly stagnant and uninspired.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 17, 2015, 12:34:11 pm
Cool interactive Hamburg results map by district:

http://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/maps/election_2015_hh_bue/index.html

Click left where it says "Wahlbeteiligung" (turnout) and choose a party.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Hifly on February 17, 2015, 12:54:19 pm
Cool interactive Hamburg results map by district:

http://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/maps/election_2015_hh_bue/index.html

Click left where it says "Wahlbeteiligung" (turnout) and choose a party.

Do you know how to find the precinct results?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 17, 2015, 12:59:38 pm
Cool interactive Hamburg results map by district:

http://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/maps/election_2015_hh_bue/index.html

Click left where it says "Wahlbeteiligung" (turnout) and choose a party.

Do you know how to find the precinct results?

They are not on the map, only in tabular form:

http://www.wahlen-hamburg.de/wahlen.php?site=left/gebiete&wahltyp=3

Go to "Auszählungsstand" and click on "Stimmbezirke".

Choose either "Wahlkreisliste" or "Landesliste".


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 17, 2015, 01:02:50 pm
You can also click on the (+) signs on the left side of the main page and the precincts will open.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franknburger on February 17, 2015, 01:23:58 pm
How did the CDU manage to basically lose 30 points?

A) Mayor Scholz (SPD) is massively popular (83% approval rating among all voters)

B) The CDU-candidate (whatshisname ?) is basically unknown to voters

C) The FDP had a solid and media-savvy frontrunner and the party cut into the CDU-vote

D) The AfD cut into the CDU vote

E) There was no desire for change, because the Hamburg economy does well and voters thought the SPD was doing a good job not only on this issue but also with all other important issues

F) People currently don't know what the CDU stands for.

G) The SPD outperforms the CDU in all their core competencies: economy and fight against crime

H) Allowing 16 and 17-years old to vote damaged the CDU, and to a lesser extent also the SPD, which both are strongest among seniors. It especially benefitted the Greens (18% among 16-17 years old) but also the FDP (8%), Pirates (4%), probably also Die PARTEI.
(Image Link)

I) Lower turnout compared to the 2013 Federal election appears to have mostly hit the CDU. In spite of allowing 16/17 years old to vote, there were some 180.000 voters less than in the 2013 Federal election. The CDU lost more than 170.000 voters. Up to half of them may have switched sides, but a good part of the 2013 CDU electorate, a quarter of which was older than 70, appears to have abstained (to the extent they did not die in the meantime). In contrast, the SPD gained some 36.000 votes, and AFD 6.000 votes. The NPD lost almost 3.300 votes, I have a guess where many of them went this time.

K) While first analyses indicates that only a minority of voters, and especially younger voters, did split their votes on several parties, vote-splitting should have damaged the larger parties, and could have especially weakened the CDU in favour of FDP and AFD.

L) Add to this tactical voting during the 2013 federal election, where voters on one hand wanted to penalise the federal FDP, and on the other hand wanted to strengthen Merkel in an anticipated Grand coalition. The 2013 Federal election had the FDP underperforming in Hamburg by some 4 percent compared to their long-term federal and local results, and the CDU overperforming correspondingly. Many traditional FDP voters have come back, and the AFD is gradually eroding the CDU from the right (though that should only make up for a bit more than 1%).
(Image Link)

All in all a perfect storm against the CDU - a strong opponent and a weak own candidate, competition from other centre-right parties including a resurging FDP, an election system in favour of smaller parties, and the party's traditional weakness with younger voters becoming exaggerated by lowering the voting age to 16 years.

The Hamburg statistical office has election maps by city district up:
http://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/maps/election_2015_hh_bue/index.html (http://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/maps/election_2015_hh_bue/index.html)
No major surprises here. Best districts by party:

SPD: Waltershof-Finkenwerder 58% (south of the Elbe, location of the Airbus plant)
CDU: Reitbrook 31% (marsh village in the east)
Grüne: Sternschanze 27% (surprise, surprise..)
Linke: Kleiner Grasbrook/ Steinwerder 32% (port area, see my post above)
FDP: Nienstedten 23% (posh district on the Lower Elbe, see above)
AFD: Billbrook 13.3% (sh**tty industrial area, see above)

AFD ist strongest in the blue-collarish east (Billbrook/ Billstedt/ Moorfleet) and the eastern part of Harburg borough south of the Elbe. The latter may relate to the fact that AFD chairman Lucke comes from Winsen/Luhe, which is just 25 km southeast of Harburg.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 17, 2015, 01:31:48 pm
Interesting also that the Left did best in the districts just south of the city-center with the highest migration background (which are also the poorest), and not the Greens or the SPD.

Go to "Themen" and select "Sozialstruktur":

https://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/maps/election_HH_2015_WK_Struktur/atlas.html


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franknburger on February 17, 2015, 03:54:05 pm
Interesting also that the Left did best in the districts just south of the city-center with the highest migration background (which are also the poorest), and not the Greens or the SPD.

Go to "Themen" and select "Sozialstruktur":

https://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/maps/election_HH_2015_WK_Struktur/atlas.html
Issues here are a bit different:
Moorburg/Altenwerder: Both used to be apple farming villages. In the 1970s, the area was designated by SPD/ FDP governments for port extension, which became a major issue for the emerging green-alternative protest movement in the 1980s. Altenwerder got completely cleared of inhabitants (including my in-laws and my wife) and has been turned into an industrial area, but Moorburg was preserved. Nevertheless, it attracted the kind of people who didn't mind they might be resettled over the next 10 years, as long as they could for the moment live cheaply in an area with countryside feel yet not too far from the city.
(Image Link)
It was a green stronghold until the late 1990s. Then, the Green party, against there election promise, accepted a new coal-fired power plant there as price for entering the coalition with the CDU. Apparently, many locals haven't forgiven the Greens yet that breach of their promise.
(Image Link)
That black-green coalition is still damaging the Greens in their traditional inner-city strongholds (St. Pauli, Sternschanze, Altona, Ottensen) though it helped them to gain ground in more up-scale suburbs along the Elbe and in the north-east.

Veddel: The high migration background isn't so decisive, as many don't have voting rights or abstain. It is first of all a symptom of demographic change. Most of Veddel contains late 1920s/ early 1930 housing blocks, where since construction inhabitants turned over twice. In 1987, more than 15% of inhabitants were over 65, by 2004 it was down to less than 7% (currently its 7.5%). The old inhabitants dying away facilitated both entrance of immigrants, and of young Germans. The place is quite central (two stops from the central railway station), the 1930s blocks have some flair, but with the railway to the east and the motorway to the west, it is polluted and noisy. Moreover, being an island within the port area, you hardly have nature or parks within walking distance. Hence, rents are rather cheap. Essentially, we are talking younger inner-city voters, just like in Sternschanze/ St. Pauli, in a place a bit more distant from the University and thus with a slightly lower share of students.
(Image Link)

Kleiner Grasbrook:  Technically an extension to Veddel, but a bit more extreme. All shopping and social infrastructure is on the Veddel, howeever, you are a bit more distant from the motorway noise (though not the train noise)). Even more population tournover over the last decade -lowest share of seniors (4.7%), but also children (7%) in all of Hamburg, and voting accordingly. The same, by the way, also applies to the Reiherstieg area, the adjacent NE part of   
Wilhemsburg, which is just getting "hip", also due to the annual Dockville festival.
(Image Link)

Here, there are three local issues:
1.) Ole van Beust's "Jump across the Elbe" strategy included upgrading of especially Wilhelmsburg, but also the Veddel, to link the HafenCity and its smaller (though more spectacular) pendant in the Harburg port area. The 2013 International Construction Exhibition in Wilhelmsburg, and relocation of the Hamburg Office for Urban Development to Wilhelmsburg (photo below) were key element of that strategy. The Greens, in charge of Urban Development during the black-green coalition, supported this. However, their intended "breakthrough for environmental housing concepts" turned out to be "appartment housing as usual" - quite a disappointment.
The "Jump across the Elbe" strategy has increased fear for, and resistance against gentrification of Wilhelmsburg and Veddel, while the Greens have lost much credibility in this respect. [For the strong exposition to traffic noise and industrial emissions, I personally think that the Veddel, to a lesser extent also many parts of Wilhelmsburg, will not suffer as much from gentrification as e.g. Sternschanze, but the concern is nevertheless present with many inhabitants.]
(Image Link)

2.) The SPD's concept for the 2024 Olympic Games bid foresees building the Olympic Stadium on the Kleine Grasbrook, on an area that currently (until 2019) is still under Czech administration (Treaty of Versailles). It isn't difficult to imagine what that would mean traffic-wise to the adjacent areas. Not really helping the SPD here.
 
3.) The city-owned Hamburg Port Authority intends to turn the Dockville festival grounds into an warehousing area. Both Greens and Linke oppose this plan, and it seems to be under re-consideration now.
http://www.spiegel.de/kultur/musik/hamburger-musikfestival-dockville-vom-ende-bedroht-a-846563.html
 (http://www.spiegel.de/kultur/musik/hamburger-musikfestival-dockville-vom-ende-bedroht-a-846563.html)
A number of other "development plans" by the Hamburg Port Authority, e.g. turning down a 1930s warehouse on the Veddel, listed as architectural monument, could also be stopped at the last moment due to local public protest. Nevertheless, the HPA is doing their best to revive old feelings of the city government not giving a damn about people living in/ near the port zone. The SPD is anyway tainted in this respect since the Moorburg/ Altenwerder development, the CDU as well, and the FDP is traditionally more concerned with port noise from the south bank reaching
the posh north bank... Well, and the Greens still have to re-establish credibility after sacrificing their resistance in order to enter the coalition with the CDU a decade ago. That leaves many voters only with Linke, Pirates or DIE PARTEI.
-----

If you are looking for socio-economic details, these sources are better than the map in your link, as they go down to city district level:
Online mapping:http://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/download/Stadtteil_Profile_2014/atlas.html (http://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/download/Stadtteil_Profile_2014/atlas.html)
Database with time series:http://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/regional/regional.php (http://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/regional/regional.php)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: solarstorm on February 17, 2015, 04:40:41 pm
SPD

(Image Link)

red1: 53.4%
red2: >50%
red3: >45.7%
red4: <45.7%
red5: 37.2%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: solarstorm on February 17, 2015, 04:41:50 pm
CDU

(Image Link)

gray1: 22.5%
gray2: >15.9%
gray3: <15.9%
gray4: 8.6%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: solarstorm on February 17, 2015, 04:43:37 pm
Greens

(Image Link)

green1: 21.9%
green2: >12.3%
green3: <12.3%
green4: 6.9%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: solarstorm on February 17, 2015, 04:45:09 pm
Left

(Image Link)

violet1: 17.7%
violet2: >8.51%
violet3: >8.51%
violet4: 4.2%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: solarstorm on February 17, 2015, 04:48:26 pm
FDP

(Image Link)

yellow1: 12,5%
yellow2: >7.4%
yellow3: <7.4%
yellow4: 4.2%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: solarstorm on February 17, 2015, 04:50:17 pm
AfD

(Image Link)

blue1: 8.742%
blue2: >6.1%
blue3: <6.1%
blue4: 3.0%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: solarstorm on February 17, 2015, 04:51:44 pm
Pirates

(Image Link)

orange1: 2.7%
orange2: >1.6%
orange3: <1.6%
orange4: 0.7%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: solarstorm on February 17, 2015, 04:53:01 pm
NPD

(Image Link)

brown1: 0.60%
brown2: >0.32%
brown3: <0.32%
brown4: 0.04%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franknburger on February 17, 2015, 04:55:49 pm
In addition to my previous post, here the results from some precincts in the Reiherstieg area of Wilhelmsburg - the Dockville festival area, west (not east, as I wrote in my previous post) of Kleiner Grasbrook:

13704:
Linke     35.7 (+16) (this is probably their by far best precinct)
SPD       24.1 (- 7.7)
Grüne    20.4 (+1.8 )
Piraten    5.1 (- 7.2)
PARTEI    5.1 (- 1.1)
CDU        3.9 (- 4.1)
AFD        1.8
FDP        1.6 (+0.1)
(Image Link)

13706:
Linke    29.1 (+ 7.0)
SPD      28.6 (- 7.0)
Grüne   19.4 (+ 6.2)
CDU       5.3 (- 4.5)
PARTEI   5.0 (-0.1)
Piraten   5.0  (-5.4)
AFD       3.8
FDP       2.5  (+1.0)
(Image Link)
Not the nicest of all areas, but still affordable, urban, with your friendly Turkish grocery and Portuguese restaurant around the corner, and a developing club scene. Some 5km by bike to St. Pauli, through the port area and the old Elbe tunnel (pedestrians & bikes only). During the day, a port ferry takes you across the Elbe to St. Pauli in 15 minutes, if you want to visit the University in Hamburg-specific style. [When the Greens are clever, they will arrange for some night ferries on weekends in the up-coming coalition talks with the SPD].


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on February 17, 2015, 05:36:27 pm
CDU

(Image Link)

gray1: 22.5%
gray2: >15.9%
gray3: <15.9%
gray4: 8.6%
That CDU map would look sexier with a few more shades...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Boston Bread on February 17, 2015, 07:32:03 pm
That CDU map would look sexier with a few more shades...
Is fifty shades of grey sexy enough for you, Hal Jam?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Oak Hills on February 17, 2015, 08:48:46 pm
2.) The SPD's concept for the 2024 Olympic Games bid foresees building the Olympic Stadium on the Kleine Grasbrook, on an area that currently (until 2019) is still under Czech administration (Treaty of Versailles). It isn't difficult to imagine what that would mean traffic-wise to the adjacent areas. Not really helping the SPD here.

What?!


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franknburger on February 17, 2015, 10:11:19 pm
2.) The SPD's concept for the 2024 Olympic Games bid foresees building the Olympic Stadium on the Kleine Grasbrook, on an area that currently (until 2019) is still under Czech administration (Treaty of Versailles). It isn't difficult to imagine what that would mean traffic-wise to the adjacent areas. Not really helping the SPD here.

What?!
Yes, you read correctly (more or less):
The port area was leased to Czechoslovakia for 99 years pursuant to Article 363 of the Treaty of Versailles. It is not Czech territory, but under Czech administration. After the Czech transport operator CSPL (Elbe shipping line) went bankrupt in 2002, it is hardly used anymore, and negotiation between Hamburg and the Czech Republic is on-going on terminating the lease before it officially expires in 2028 (I erred on that date in the cited post).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moldauhafen (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moldauhafen)

(Image Link)
The map above shows the planned location of the Olympic Stadium, the Olympic Village and the press centre (area in green). Further housing for athletes shall be provided on cruise ships to be stationed on the Elbe. Zhe HafenCity lies to the north, Veddel just to the east, and the populated stretch of Kleiner Grasbrook is to the south, on the basin bank that stretches west from the city rail station marked by the white "S" in the green circle.
Hamburg's bid is quite popular in the city (except, of course, in Veddel, Grasbrook, Wilhelmsburg and the like), and is seen as one of the reasons for Scholz gaining re-election. The concept is in fact quite convincing, since it involves minimal investment (all public transport is already available, as well as many sports facilities, the Olympic village provides sought-after downtown housing, etc.). The neighbouring states shall be involved as well - sailing in Travemünde or Kiel, handball in Kiel and Flensburg, Beach Volleyball in Timmendorf, cross-country horse riding in Luhmühlen (as already in 1972), etv.  

The German Olympic Committee will decide in mid-March, whether they will support Hamburg or Berlin (which is also preparing a bid), and whether they will go for 2024 or for 2028. Since the IOC has a German president, Thomas Bach, the chances for Germany securing the 2024 or 2028 games aren't bad.    

EDIT: A concept outline (in German) can be found here:
http://www.hamburg.de/contentblob/4420632/data/anlagen-gesamtpaket.pdf (http://www.hamburg.de/contentblob/4420632/data/anlagen-gesamtpaket.pdf)
New construction shall include the Olympic Stadium (Athlethics), a Sports Hall (Basketball, Gymnastics), the Olympic swimming arena, a rugby stadium, a canoe slalom trail (Wilhelmsburg),  gun and bow shooting grounds, and a Beach Volleyball Arena (Entenwerder Island, Rotenburgsort, just off the right end of the map). Of these, the Olympic Stadium shall afterwards be converted into a smaller stadium for athletics and American Football, the Olympic Hall shall be rebuilt  into a cruise terminal. The swimming arena shall serve as public batn, the rugby stadium for amateur soccer.

Boxing, wrestling, weight-lifting, fighting etc. shall be done in the trade-fair halls (Sternschanze). Rowing and canoeing infrastructure is available in the marshlands, horesriding grounds in Groß Flottbek, golf on Gut Kaden north of Hamburg, tennis on the Hamburg Masters facilities (Rothenbaum) . Cycling infrastructure is also available but requiring upgrading.
Soccer shall be played in Bremen, Wolfsburg, Hannover, Braunschweig and Rostock, with the final in the Hamburg soccer stadium. Field hockey shall be played in the St. Pauli Stadium, Handball in Kiel and Flensburg, with the final in the O2 Arena in Hamburg, and Volleyball in Schwerin (final in one of the Hamburg trade fair halls).

EDIT 2: Some "before and after stuff" -viewed from the norh-west. Veddel is at the top left and centre of the pictures, the stretch of current Kleiner Grasbrook housing at the top right. Bottom left on the first picture you see the part of the HafenCity currently under construction.
(Image Link)
(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Franknburger on February 19, 2015, 08:15:27 pm
Even though it is kind of  comparing apples and oranges, I found it instructive to do some comparison between the 2013 federal and the 2015 state elections in Hamburg. Note that they are based on ballot-box performance only, which, at over 30% vore-by-mail in each of the two elections, may here and there blur the picture.

(Image Link)

Participation: 2015 participation was 14.4 absolute points (some 20% relatively) lower than in 2013. The decrease was not uniform across city districts, and also less characterised by socio-economic diffences than might be expected. Socially strong districts along the lower Elbe, the Alster, and in the north-east, expectedly, show the highest participation rates, and low absolute and relative decreases. However, in some lower and middle class suburbs, notably the SPD stronghold of Langenhorn in the NNW, participation was also comparatively high. The same applies to many marsh villages in the south-east, and also agriculturally-structured Francop in the south-west. These districts are among those where the SPD (but in some marsh villages also AFD!) gained strongest, and the CDU lost most, respectively. Apparently, in some locations Olaf Scholz managed to motivate his base to vote, or even turn out voters which abstained in 2013. As concerns the marsh villages, also southeastern Harburg district, this appears to apply even more to the AFD. Conversely, in the western part of the upper-middle-class Walddörfer in the NE, participation was somewhat lower than expectable, and the CDU lost over proportion.

SPD: In the western inner city, the SPD only improved slightly against 2013. The same applies to Wilhelmsburg and Harburg proper, traditional SPD strongholds. On the Veddel and the Kleine Grasbrook, they even lost, presumably due to the envisaged Olymics bid. Several of the blue-collarish areas, such as Horn and Billstedt to the east, and Steilshoop (their strongest 2013 district) gave the SPD moderate gains in the 10-15% range. Nothing to compain about, of course, but not decisve. In absolute terms, most of the SPD improvement stems from the suburbs - both the lower and upper-middle-class ones. And relatively to 2013, they gained especially in the upper middle-class districts along the lower Elbe and to the northeast. Thus, 2015 wasn't just preaching to the converted (though this clearly also played a role), it was first and foremost recuperating lost ground in the (upper) middle class.
The most spectacular SPD gain, however, ocuured in the western marsh villages - interestingly, not only at the expense of the CDU, but also of the Greens. This is where the Olympic rowing and canoeing competitions are envisaged to take place. Unlike on the Veddel and the Grasbrook, locals in the marsh villages seem to be quite ethuastic about potentially hosting parts of the Olympic Games.

CDU: I hope the maps don't look counter-intuitive. The six shades of grey they entail display what remained of the CDU's 2013 glory - the darker, the more. In fact, of course, the 2015 election was a disaster for the CDU. They didn't just go down in every district, they lost at least 5%, and a quarter of their 2013 share, in each district. There isn't a single district where the CDU isn't the biggest loser, both in absolute and in relative terms, of all the parties that were on the ballot.
In absolute terms, the CDU appears to have been able to best contain their losses in the (western) inner city. However, there wasn't much to lose there from the beginning. Thus, what at first glimpse looks like a very modest 5.2% loss on Kleiner Grasbrook, is, in relative terms, a 62% decline from 8.4% in 2013 to 3.2% in 2015. In Sternschanze, they even managed to go down by 75%, from 11.4% in 2013 to 2.9% in 2015. Thus, compared to the already meagre 2013 vote share, the CDU has literally almost been annihilated in the western inner city.
The CDU was also devastated in the posh suburbs on the Lower Elbe, where they not only lost massively to the SPD, but also to the SPD. In Nienstedten, e.g., where they reached 49.5% in 2013, they lost 29.5 percentage points (SPD up 17, FDP up 12. The picture is similar, though partly a bit less dramatic, in the upper-middle class Walddörfer in the northeast, and in the marsh villages.
However, posh suburbs and marsh villages tend to be rather sparsely populated - the size on the map overstates their demographic weight. What really killed the CDU was losing almost 20 points, or 55-60% of their 2013 share, in each of the more densely populated middle-class suburbs like Niendorf and Schnelsen to the NW, Rahlstedt to the ENE, and Bergedorf in the ESE. Here, the CDU loss corresponds with similar, though slightly lower SPD gains, while some 2-4% went to the FDP.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on April 19, 2015, 03:51:54 am
Finally !

A poll for Bremen has been released, which has state elections next month.

Infratest Dimap:

(Image Link)

The current government is SPD-Greens.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on April 20, 2015, 04:18:38 am
I find the FDP's resurrection particularly disgusting, provided that it's only due to a pair of legs and a new logo...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: solarstorm on April 23, 2015, 02:31:52 pm
I find the FDP's resurrection particularly disgusting, provided that it's only due to a pair of legs and a new logo...

And it's getting even worse:

They need to surpass the 5% threshold in only one of the Land's two cities, Bremen and Bremerhaven.
Consequently, they're likely to make it into the Bremen Bürgerschaft, even if they receive less than 5% of the overall vote.

That's, btw, how the right-wing BIW managed twice to move into the parliament of Bremen.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on May 02, 2015, 06:05:54 am
The final 2 Bremen polls for the state election next Sunday are out.

Average of the ARD/ZDF polls:

37.0% SPD (-1.5% compared with 2010 election)
22.5% CDU (+2.0)
15.5% Greens (-7.0%)
  8.5% Left (+3.0%)
  5.5% FDP (+3.0%)
  5.0% AfD (+5.0%)
  3.0% BiW (-0.5%)
  3.0% Others (-4.0%)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: solarstorm on May 02, 2015, 12:02:47 pm
The final 2 Bremen polls for the state election next Sunday are out.

Average of the ARD/ZDF polls:

37.0% SPD (-1.5% compared with 2010 election)
22.5% CDU (+2.0)
15.5% Greens (-7.0%)
  8.5% Left (+3.0%)
  5.5% FDP (+3.0%)
  5.0% AfD (+5.0%)
  3.0% BiW (-0.5%)
  3.0% Others (-4.0%)

Sorry, I don't believe that poll. The FDP is way too strong and the AfD is way too weak.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on May 09, 2015, 09:55:49 am
My prediction for the Bremen state election tomorrow:

35.7% SPD
22.6% CDU
14.8% Greens
  8.9% Left
  6.6% FDP
  5.1% AfD
  3.2% BiW
  3.1% Others

Turnout: 55%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Lief 🐋 on May 09, 2015, 11:20:22 am
ugh, goddamn zombie FDP


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on May 09, 2015, 11:30:21 am
Katja Suding's blonde "twin sister" in Bremen (on the way to lead the revival of the FDP there):

(Image Link) (Image Link)

(Image Link) (Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Vosem on May 09, 2015, 02:12:24 pm
What is dead can never die, but rises again, harder and stronger #FDP4ever


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on May 10, 2015, 09:04:38 am
Turnout is on track for a new record low in the Bremen state election:

45-50%

Polls close in 2 hours.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on May 10, 2015, 09:38:50 am
It seems that turnout now has caught up with the 2011 numbers, a bit. Weather was supposed to be better in the afternoon, so many voters probably have been taking that into account scheduling their planned voting time. Looks more 52ish now.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on May 10, 2015, 11:01:44 am
SPD      35.2
CDU     23
Green   15.5
FDP       6.5
AfD        5


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on May 10, 2015, 11:03:53 am
I wonder how BIW did


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on May 10, 2015, 11:04:37 am
1st ZDF projection:

(Image Link)

1st ARD projection:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on May 10, 2015, 11:51:07 am
"Citizens in Rage" (BiW) will definitely get a seat once again, because they are at 6% in Bremerhaven, despite only polling 3% in all of Bremen state:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Sozialliberal on May 11, 2015, 10:26:54 am
Mayor Jens Böhrnsen has announced that he will resign because of the disappointing election result of his party. The SPD Bremen has received the lowest share of votes since 1946 (just under 33 %). The turnout is at an all-time low, too (about 50 %).

The votes won't be fully counted until Tuesday or even Wednesday because the electoral system of Bremen is so complicated.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on May 12, 2015, 02:23:43 am
Big news from the AfD. As expected the different factions are at war with one another with Bernd Lucke - dispelling rumors that he was about to leave the party - now calling for some sort of decision at a party conference on the party's future path. Makes you wonder though how the party, short of passing some sort of major program/manifesto, can discard a certain ideology at a conference.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on May 12, 2015, 11:22:56 am
I suppose in Bremen that SPD-Grünen should be the natural coalition to rule ? Or is it another Grosskoalition ?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Sozialliberal on May 12, 2015, 01:56:40 pm
I suppose in Bremen that SPD-Grünen should be the natural coalition to rule ? Or is it another Grosskoalition ?

Both a red-green and a grand coalition are possible options. A grand coalition seems more likely now because both the SPD and the Greens lost many votes, whereas the CDU gained votes. The SPD has an interest in preventing the CDU from growing even more and perhaps replacing it as the largest party in Bremen. The smaller party in a coalition tends to lose more votes or win less votes than the larger party.  The SPD and the Greens also had some quarrels when they were in government.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on May 13, 2015, 04:10:28 am
Interesting new poll by FORSA for Baden-Württemberg (which will vote early next year):

38% CDU
26% Greens
20% SPD
  4% FDP
  4% Left
  4% AfD
  4% Others

Because FDP, Left and AfD are all below the 5% threshold, there's a chance the current Green-SPD coalition may continue their work.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on May 13, 2015, 11:24:40 am
Interesting new poll by FORSA for Baden-Württemberg (which will vote early next year):

38% CDU
26% Greens
20% SPD
  4% FDP
  4% Left
  4% AfD
  4% Others

Because FDP, Left and AfD are all below the 5% threshold, there's a chance the current Green-SPD coalition may continue their work.
With what we've seen recently, I think we can fully expect AfD to cross the threshold though, and perhaps the FDP as well in their oh-so-undesirable come-back. Die Linke OTOH doesn't seem like a good fit for B-W.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Sozialliberal on May 13, 2015, 02:00:24 pm
The votes of the Bremen election are fully counted now. 42 seats are needed for a majority.

SPD, 32.8 %, 30 seats
CDU, 22.4 %, 20 seats
Greens, 15.1 %, 14 seats
The Left, 9.5 %, 8 seats (That's a lot for a state of the former West Germany.)
FDP, 6.6 %, 6 seats (Wow, 666! :D)
AfD, 5.5 %, 4 seats
Citizens in Rage, 3.2 %, 1 seat (They got 6.5 % in Bremerhaven.)
Die PARTEI/The Party, 1.9 % (their best result by far in an election at state level)
Pirate Party, 1.5 %
Animal Welfare Party, 1.2 %
NPD, 0.2 % (They candidated only in Bremerhaven, where they got 1.4 %. It's always nice to see them do badly.)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on May 27, 2015, 01:47:15 pm
FDP surges to 7% in a new federal poll by FORSA, while CDU/CSU drop below 40%:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa.htm


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: freefair on May 27, 2015, 09:53:27 pm
Interesting new poll by FORSA for Baden-Württemberg (which will vote early next year):

38% CDU
  4% FDP
  4% AfD
Oyoyoy. Should be plenty of loan votes there!


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on June 26, 2015, 05:16:17 am
CDU/CSU-FDP would now be possible again at the federal level, because the FDP has risen to 5% and the AfD dropped back to 4% in the latest polls:

GMS Poll

42% CDU/CSU
24% SPD
10% Greens
  9% Left
  5% FDP
  4% AfD
  6% Others

47-43 majority for CDU/CSU-FDP.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on July 04, 2015, 12:22:31 pm
Frauke Petry has been elected leader of the AfD. Does this spell the end of the party's economic liberal wing?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on July 05, 2015, 04:09:53 am
Frauke Petry has been elected leader of the AfD. Does this spell the end of the party's economic liberal wing?

In the long run, it could mean the end of the AfD.

There has been talk that deposed party leader Bernd Lucke - who essentially got primaried for being too moderate - and his followers will now leave the AfD and form their own party.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on July 05, 2015, 08:18:57 am
so basically AfD becomes the new NPD? (more than it already was, i mean)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on July 06, 2015, 03:34:42 am
Hans-Olaf Henkel - as former president of the Federation of German Industries, former AfD deputy chairman, and current MEP one of the most prominent members of the AfD's liberal wing - has left the party.



Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on July 06, 2015, 05:24:02 am
Well, in any case it's a plausible scenario that the remaining AfD could become a party of conspiracy theorists who blame Muslims, "the media", the Green Party, the EU, and the American government for everything from trains who run behind schedule to chemtrails in the sky.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on July 06, 2015, 08:06:32 am

care to explain?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on July 06, 2015, 12:05:27 pm

Because the AfD with Petry is now more like Germany's FPÖ-lite. The NPD is much more extreme.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 06, 2015, 12:14:53 pm
The new Die Republikaner then.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Diouf on July 06, 2015, 03:41:08 pm
Frauke Petry has been elected leader of the AfD. Does this spell the end of the party's economic liberal wing?

In the long run, it could mean the end of the AfD.

There has been talk that deposed party leader Bernd Lucke - who essentially got primaried for being too moderate - and his followers will now leave the AfD and form their own party.

Why the end?
Will they not basically just be a standard European anti-immigration and anti-EU party now? And a more coherent one.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: MaxQue on July 06, 2015, 03:54:37 pm
Frauke Petry has been elected leader of the AfD. Does this spell the end of the party's economic liberal wing?

In the long run, it could mean the end of the AfD.

There has been talk that deposed party leader Bernd Lucke - who essentially got primaried for being too moderate - and his followers will now leave the AfD and form their own party.

Why the end?
Will they not basically just be a standard European anti-immigration and anti-EU party now? And a more coherent one.

Because, for historical reasons, an anti-immigration, anti-EU party is unpalatable to 90% of the population.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Diouf on July 06, 2015, 04:10:25 pm
Frauke Petry has been elected leader of the AfD. Does this spell the end of the party's economic liberal wing?

In the long run, it could mean the end of the AfD.

There has been talk that deposed party leader Bernd Lucke - who essentially got primaried for being too moderate - and his followers will now leave the AfD and form their own party.

Why the end?
Will they not basically just be a standard European anti-immigration and anti-EU party now? And a more coherent one.

Because, for historical reasons, an anti-immigration, anti-EU party is unpalatable to 90% of the population.

Well, even if that was true, they would still have a niche in which they were clearly the most palatable party.
I think those historical reasons are becoming just that, history.
http://www.euractiv.com/sections/global-europe/majority-germans-reject-immigration-outside-eu-312282


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: MaxQue on July 06, 2015, 04:41:42 pm
Frauke Petry has been elected leader of the AfD. Does this spell the end of the party's economic liberal wing?

In the long run, it could mean the end of the AfD.

There has been talk that deposed party leader Bernd Lucke - who essentially got primaried for being too moderate - and his followers will now leave the AfD and form their own party.

Why the end?
Will they not basically just be a standard European anti-immigration and anti-EU party now? And a more coherent one.

Because, for historical reasons, an anti-immigration, anti-EU party is unpalatable to 90% of the population.

Well, even if that was true, they would still have a niche in which they were clearly the most palatable party.
I think those historical reasons are becoming just that, history.
http://www.euractiv.com/sections/global-europe/majority-germans-reject-immigration-outside-eu-312282

Well, then, why Die Republikaners never had any success?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on July 07, 2015, 12:42:29 am
Quote
Well, then, why Die Republikaners never had any success?
Three times in state parliaments (2x Baden-Württemberg, once Berlin), once in European parliament isn't "never had any success". The fate of the Reps was marred by the two big i of German right wing parties: incompetence and infighting. The infighting, of course, has to do with German history and the basic question weither or at least how near they wanted to be to outright Nazis. It's the same basic question that is splitting the AfD now.

This was twenty to twenty-five years ago, though. So opinions in the population can shift over time. European integration was much less dense, then. The potential of the Volksparteien, especially of the SPD to integrate broad parts of the population (socially and politically) is in decline. (Related to the CDU this is overshadowed by the Merkel effect).




Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Diouf on July 07, 2015, 05:40:07 am
Frauke Petry has been elected leader of the AfD. Does this spell the end of the party's economic liberal wing?

In the long run, it could mean the end of the AfD.

There has been talk that deposed party leader Bernd Lucke - who essentially got primaried for being too moderate - and his followers will now leave the AfD and form their own party.

Why the end?
Will they not basically just be a standard European anti-immigration and anti-EU party now? And a more coherent one.

Because, for historical reasons, an anti-immigration, anti-EU party is unpalatable to 90% of the population.

Well, even if that was true, they would still have a niche in which they were clearly the most palatable party.
I think those historical reasons are becoming just that, history.
http://www.euractiv.com/sections/global-europe/majority-germans-reject-immigration-outside-eu-312282

Well, then, why Die Republikaners never had any success?

Yeahsayyeah outlines it pretty well above.

Antipathy towards immigration and the EU does not mean that any anti-immigration and anti-EU party will straight away hit 20 %. The party itself needs to be seen as at least somewhat competent and coherent. If Lucke and his followers leave the party now, it seems to me that the party will become more coherent and therefore stand a larger chance of long-term success. Whether Frauke Petry and her allies are more or less competent than Lucke will be seen now.

Several other conditions matters of course. Is the government popular or not? How high on the agenda is immigration? How strong is party loyalty? The government seems to have high approval ratings at the moment, which makes an explosive growth for an anti-system party less likely, but no one knows how long that will last. The CDU remains very popular, at least at the national level, but as far as I recall vote transfers from CDU to AfD was in the top2 of incoming vote transfers for almost all AfD elections so far, so if the government and/or CDU becomes unpopular, I would think that there could quickly be 3-5 % move from CDU to AfD.

In Sweden for example, polls and research had long showed that attitudes towards immigration and refugees were basically not different from those in Denmark, but without an anti-immigration and anti-EU party like in Denmark. Therefore, it is no great surprise, that when a somewhat competent and coherent party emerged, the governments turned unpopular, and immigration and refugees came higher up the agenda, then the party surged from being outside Parliament to 20+ % in 5 years.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on July 07, 2015, 06:39:35 am
Lucke and his followers are probably going to form their own political party. In addition, Pegida has announced their attention to run in the upcoming state elections. That's a lot of competition on the right side of the CDU. In the end we could end up with three separate forces each receiving roughly 3% of the vote.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on July 07, 2015, 08:32:14 am
Of course historical data doesn't necessarily tell us much about the future chances of success of a right-wing populist party. Nonetheless far right extremism remains as stigmatized as ever in (west) German society so I think the assertion that a populist party on the right can only do well if it credibly disassociates itself from the extrem right remains valid as well. Add to that the fact that infighting - as mentioned - tends to also scare away voters and you'll understand why the chances of the AfD entering the Bundestag in 2017 decreased substantially on sunday.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on July 07, 2015, 01:15:00 pm
AfD members of the European parliament who have left the party in the recent days:

- Joachim Starbatty
- Hans-Olaf Henkel
- Bernd Kölmel
- Ulrike Trebesius

I imagine Bernd Lucke will join them soon. This leaves only Beatrix von Storch and Marcus Pretzell. Both are considered representatives of the "national conservative" wing and are therefore likely to stay with the party. But the AfD's representation in the European parliament will be reduced from 7 to 2 as a result of Frauke Petry's election to party chairmanship.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: FredLindq on July 07, 2015, 02:59:08 pm
Problems for Cameron then.

Which "wing" off AFD will stay in the ECR?! Or will they all leave?!


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: republicanbayer on July 07, 2015, 03:12:16 pm
Problems for Cameron then.

Which "wing" off AFD will stay in the ECR?! Or will they all leave?!

Frauke Petry said that she wants to stay in the ECR.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Diouf on July 07, 2015, 03:39:03 pm
Problems for Cameron then.

Which "wing" off AFD will stay in the ECR?! Or will they all leave?!

Frauke Petry said that she wants to stay in the ECR.

Where will the ex-AfD MEPs go?
Just become independents? Hard really to see them in any of the other groups.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: republicanbayer on July 08, 2015, 03:41:47 am
Problems for Cameron then.

Which "wing" off AFD will stay in the ECR?! Or will they all leave?!

Frauke Petry said that she wants to stay in the ECR.

Where will the ex-AfD MEPs go?
Just become independents? Hard really to see them in any of the other groups.

I guess they will stay in the ECR as well, but Hans-Olaf Henkel, Vice President of the ECR, suggested that von Storch and Pretzell should join Marine Le Pen's group.
Meanwhile former AfD leader Konrad Adam, who was a staunch supporter of Petry, has said that he is thinking about leaving the party.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on July 08, 2015, 02:29:05 pm
Lucke has now officially left the party.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: FredLindq on July 08, 2015, 03:26:27 pm
So AFD is now entirely extreme right? Will they change any policies? Will it affect the opinion polls?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: republicanbayer on July 08, 2015, 05:11:38 pm
So AFD is now entirely extreme right? Will they change any policies? Will it affect the opinion polls?

I think nothing will change in the short term, because the party leaders know they can't move the party further to the right without losing massive support. But considering how far right some of their members seem to be, it's possible that they will become a German version of FN in a few years.
Since Lucke will probably found a new party, AfD might lose 2-3% in the polls.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on July 08, 2015, 05:28:12 pm
What's happened to The AfD state caucuses?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: republicanbayer on July 09, 2015, 06:54:05 am
Jörn Kruse, chairman of the group in the parliament of Hamburg, wants to stay in the AfD even though he is a member of Bernd Lucke's "Weckruf". He said that he doesn't leave the party, because he wants to continue working with his group, which seems odd to me, because the most members of the AfD Hamburg support Frauke Petry.
In Bremen 3 of the 4 Members of Parliament left the AfD.
Thuringia's AfD group has always been split, so it's likely that the group will lose a few members.
The groups in Saxony and Brandenburg are lead by Petry respectively Gauland, so I guess there won't be any losses.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on July 12, 2015, 05:04:10 am
AfD drops to 3% in latest Emnid poll.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on July 12, 2015, 07:12:33 pm
Btw how is the new LITERALLT STALIN government doing in Thuringia?

(Also, the tail-end of the Green government of BW?)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on July 13, 2015, 03:44:11 pm
Btw how is the new LITERALLT STALIN government doing in Thuringia?

(Also, the tail-end of the Green government of BW?)
It's working quite smoothly. No gulags and mass executions reported by now. Also key industries like bratwurst manufacturers still in private ownerhsip.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on July 19, 2015, 12:41:32 pm
Former AfD leader Bernd Lucke and his followers have founded their own party.... the Allianz für Fortschritt und Aufbruch, shortened ALFA.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on July 19, 2015, 01:13:38 pm
Former AfD leader Bernd Lucke and his followers have founded their own party.... the Allianz für Fortschritt und Aufbruch, shortened ALFA.

How do we best translate this new party name into English for our English-speaking friends on here ?

"Alliance for Progress & Awakening" ?

"Alliance for Progress & Upswing" ?

"Alliance for Progress & Departure" ?

"Alliance for Progress & Decampment" ?

"Alliance for Progress & Liftoff" ?

Is there any real English term for the word "Aufbruch" ?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: republicanbayer on July 19, 2015, 02:06:48 pm
Former AfD leader Bernd Lucke and his followers have founded their own party.... the Allianz für Fortschritt und Aufbruch, shortened ALFA.

I really like Lucke, but this party name is pretty stupid.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on July 19, 2015, 02:32:06 pm
Quote
"Alliance for Progress & Decampment"
Isn't "Incampment" more in line with their ideology? ;-)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on July 19, 2015, 02:57:33 pm
Alfa? Really going for the RedPiller vote I see, lmao


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on July 19, 2015, 04:23:54 pm
Well, this is disappointing. I can't really see Petry turning AfD into a FN/PVV clone, so I'm not afraid of that, but this rightward turn will surely make it harder for the party to enter parliament, while a sane, Eurocritical alternative to the right of the CDU (which doesn't necessarily have to be FN-like at all; it could also be Tory-like) is not a bad idea at all for the German political landscape and could help address voters' legitimate concerns regarding the "ever closer union".


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on July 20, 2015, 10:42:52 am
Former AfD leader Bernd Lucke and his followers have founded their own party.... the Allianz für Fortschritt und Aufbruch, shortened ALFA.

How do we best translate this new party name into English for our English-speaking friends on here ?

"Alliance for Progress & Awakening" ?

"Alliance for Progress & Upswing" ?

"Alliance for Progress & Departure" ?

"Alliance for Progress & Decampment" ?

"Alliance for Progress & Liftoff" ?

Is there any real English term for the word "Aufbruch" ?

Wikipedia has chosen "renewal" and that sounds rather accurate.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on July 20, 2015, 12:38:00 pm
Former AfD leader Bernd Lucke and his followers have founded their own party.... the Allianz für Fortschritt und Aufbruch, shortened ALFA.

How do we best translate this new party name into English for our English-speaking friends on here ?

"Alliance for Progress & Awakening" ?

"Alliance for Progress & Upswing" ?

"Alliance for Progress & Departure" ?

"Alliance for Progress & Decampment" ?

"Alliance for Progress & Liftoff" ?

Is there any real English term for the word "Aufbruch" ?

Wikipedia has chosen "renewal" and that sounds rather accurate.

Well, I guess they had to choose some word ... :P

Even though "renewal" actually means "Erneuerung" and in German that is quite something else than a "Aufbruch".


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on July 21, 2015, 01:45:19 pm
I didn't keep up with the development regarding to the gay marriage bill at the Bundesrat, and I'm not really really knowledgeable about its powers. What happened and what consequences does this have?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Thomas from NJ on August 02, 2015, 01:19:47 pm
According to a recent poll, the CDU and CSU could win an absolute majority if an election were held next week.

http://www.firstpost.com/world/germanys-merkel-has-chance-of-absolute-majority-poll-shows-reuters-2375922.html (http://www.firstpost.com/world/germanys-merkel-has-chance-of-absolute-majority-poll-shows-reuters-2375922.html)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on August 03, 2015, 01:01:20 pm
There are also rumors that far from stepping down, Mutti will run for another term in 2017. My guess is that if she lacks an absolute majority she will complete the transformation of her party by entering a coalition with the Greens.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on August 04, 2015, 11:41:25 am
Germany's prosecutor general is now an ex-prosecutor general. The justice minister just terminated the employment... officially due to insubordination on the prosecutor's part, unofficially as an excercise in ass-covering.

Background: http://www.dw.com/en/german-justice-minister-maas-terminates-federal-prosecuter-range/a-18625000


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on August 19, 2015, 08:14:56 am
Greek bailout vote: 63 CDU/CSU dissenters, up from 60 in July, 29 in February and 12 in 2012.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: politicus on September 05, 2015, 11:37:20 am
Recent polls still have AfD at 4% despite the refugee crisis, that is a bit surprising. Are they keeping a low profile on this?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on September 08, 2015, 03:05:47 pm
If the media does report on the AfD, it tends to still focus on the infighting. Just like most of its sister parties it has called for the re-introduction of border controls though. http://www.alternativefuer.de/herbstoffensive-2015/


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: rob in cal on September 09, 2015, 10:47:28 am
     If there was still a CDU/FDP government, would its stance toward the refugee/migrant crisis be any different than what we are seeing?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Thomas from NJ on September 10, 2015, 09:34:52 pm
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/10/europe-migrants-germany-poll-idUSL5N11G47R20150910 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/10/europe-migrants-germany-poll-idUSL5N11G47R20150910)

In a recent poll, 36% of Germans say the government isn't doing enough to help refugees, while 27% say it is doing too much.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: politicus on September 10, 2015, 09:39:25 pm
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/10/europe-migrants-germany-poll-idUSL5N11G47R20150910 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/10/europe-migrants-germany-poll-idUSL5N11G47R20150910)

In a recent poll, 36% of Germans say the government isn't doing enough to help refugees, while 27% say it is doing too much.

The most interesting about those numbers are the the remaining 37%.  


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Thomas from NJ on September 10, 2015, 09:48:27 pm
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/10/europe-migrants-germany-poll-idUSL5N11G47R20150910 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/10/europe-migrants-germany-poll-idUSL5N11G47R20150910)

In a recent poll, 36% of Germans say the government isn't doing enough to help refugees, while 27% say it is doing too much.

The most interesting about those numbers are the the remaining 37%. 

Through google.de, I found another article which states that the poll actually says 36% think the government is doing just the right amount, 34% don't think it is doing enough, and 27% think it is doing too much...that still leaves 3 percent. Maybe they were undecided.

http://www.n24.de/n24/d/7280314/haelfte-der-deutschen-will-mehr-grenzkontrollen.html (http://www.n24.de/n24/d/7280314/haelfte-der-deutschen-will-mehr-grenzkontrollen.html)

(It's in German, obviously)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on September 17, 2015, 08:23:51 am
     If there was still a CDU/FDP government, would its stance toward the refugee/migrant crisis be any different than what we are seeing?

Probably not.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on September 23, 2015, 05:45:13 am
CDU/CSU hurt by migration crisis as voters on their part migrate to the AfD?

(Image Link)
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Thomas from NJ on September 23, 2015, 10:52:27 am
CDU/CSU hurt by migration crisis as voters on their part migrate to the AfD?

(Image Link)
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

The AfD does indeed appear to be taking support from the CDU and CSU:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/09/15/uk-europe-migrants-germany-poll-idUKKCN0RF0T920150915


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: politicus on September 23, 2015, 11:15:18 am
CDU/CSU hurt by migration crisis as voters on their part migrate to the AfD?

(Image Link)
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

The AfD does indeed appear to be taking support from the CDU and CSU:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/09/15/uk-europe-migrants-germany-poll-idUKKCN0RF0T920150915

Yeah, but even if AfD is useless, the German polls are still remarkably unaffected by this. In most other countries we would see huge swings to the anti-immigration right with an inflow this big.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on September 24, 2015, 10:15:01 am
Yeah, but even if AfD is useless, the German polls are still remarkably unaffected by this. In most other countries we would see huge swings to the anti-immigration right with an inflow this big.
Yes, neighboring Austria is a clear example for that.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on September 25, 2015, 04:29:58 am
I think if the AfD was a party not dissimilar to the FPÖ (ie having been in the political business for decades) we'd see a somewhat similar swing as well. But of course the AfD has to contend with the problems any right-wing party faces in Germany. They're lucky to even be invited to the dozens of talk shows that have dealt with the migration crisis on German tv in recent weeks.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on September 29, 2015, 07:26:37 am
AfD - unsurprisingly - rising as of late:

(Image Link)
http://pollytix.de/wahltrend


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on October 07, 2015, 07:02:04 am
Headlne # today: AfD would get 9% in Bavaria in federal election:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/laender.htm#by


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: rob in cal on October 07, 2015, 10:38:22 am
   Also, the Others category is up to 9%.  Wonder who predominates in that group.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on October 07, 2015, 12:29:56 pm
Others were at 9.1% in Bavaria in the 2013 federal election, so that numbers hasn't changed at all. The "other" parties were:

2.7% Free Voters (municipalism, rural interests, "not a party", soft euro-scepticism)
1.9% Pirate Party
1.0% Ecological Democratic Party (conservative environmentalists)
0.9% Bavaria Party (separatists, imho quite right-leaning)
0.9% NPD (nazis)
0.7% Animal Welfare Party
0.4% Republicans (a far-right party that was successful about 20-30 years ago and has been steadily declining since then)
0.2% Women
0.1% The Violets ("For spiritual politics")
0.1% Party of Reason (Right-wing libertarians)
0.1% Pro Germany (far-right, mainly based in North Rhine Westphalia)
0.0% Alliance 21/ Pensioneers' Party
0.0% Marxist-Leninist Party of Germany
0.0% Citizens' Rights Movement Solidarity (LaRouche followers)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on October 07, 2015, 12:50:43 pm
What about the split from AfD?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on October 13, 2015, 08:42:08 am
Alfa? I don't think anyone is really paying attention to them anymore. Lucke chose the worst possible time to start a new anti-€ party - at the moment when the eurozone crisis subsided (once again) only to be completely supplanted by the migrant crisis.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on October 13, 2015, 08:45:33 am
A third of Germans think Merkel should step down over her handling of the migrant crisis, according to an INSA/Focus poll.

http://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/drastische-forderung-wegen-fluechtlingspolitik-jeder-dritte-deutsche-will-merkels-ruecktritt_id_5008727.html

INSA also has the CDU/CSU at a 16 month low in their election poll:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on October 13, 2015, 08:51:00 am
I wonder if the migrant crisis will also lead to higher turnout in German state elections in March 2016 (BW, RP and SA) - like it did in Upper Austria and Vienna.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on October 18, 2015, 03:36:36 am
Latest Emnid poll has CDU/CSU at 37%, worst result since Mai of 2013 and 6 points below where they were 2 months ago.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: politicus on October 18, 2015, 10:24:41 pm
Knife stabbed Henriette Reker elected Lord Mayor of Cologne, while still in artificial coma after the assault.

She got 52.7 and her closest competitor Jochen Ott from SPD got 32. So a clear victory in the first round.

Congrats.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ag on October 18, 2015, 10:34:55 pm
The people of Cologne have given a clear answer about their wishes. The German constitutional system gave them ample opportunity to do so.



Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ag on October 18, 2015, 10:41:51 pm
Full results,

Reker (Ind) 52.66%
Ott (SPD) 32.02%
Benecke (Die PARTEI) 7.22%
Rottmann (AfD) 4.01%
Hovelmann (Ind) 2.82%
Neumeyer (Ind) 0.78%
Krieger (REP) 0.49%

Invalid votes: 0.97%

 


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on October 18, 2015, 11:27:37 pm
Lol at DIE PARTIE


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ag on October 19, 2015, 01:02:10 am

At least in Cologne, die PARTEI is less of a joke than AfD, it seems :)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on October 23, 2015, 08:08:53 am
Infratest dimap poll, party preferences divided into west and east.

West/East
CDU 39/34
SPD 25/19
Greens 13/5
Left 6/20
FDP 6/3
AfD 7/11

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/dimap/ost.htm


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on October 25, 2015, 06:45:02 am
CDU/CSU reach their lowest level in more than 3 years:

EMNID

36% CDU/CSU (-7% compared with 2 months ago)
26% SPD (+2)
10% Greens (nc)
10% Left (nc)
  7% AfD (+4)
  5% FDP (+1)
  6% Others (nc)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on October 25, 2015, 01:57:48 pm
By 2017 not even a black-green coalition may be possible. Guess more GroKo for Germany then...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on October 27, 2015, 09:40:14 am
(Image Link)

If the FDP crept past the 5%-threshold, neither CDU/Greens, CDU/FDP nor SPD/Greens/Left would be able to form a majority with the shares as shown in the poll above. Wonder if the CDU could be enticed to go for the Jamaica option in such a scenario.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on October 27, 2015, 09:50:42 am
By 2017 not even a black-green coalition may be possible. Guess more GroKo for Germany then...

Assuming both AfD and Linke are in, then there is no alternative to Grand Coalition again unless someone is willing to take Linke or AfD into the ruling alliance which for now seems unlikely.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on October 27, 2015, 03:30:11 pm
Average of the six most recent polls (Allensbach 10/20, Forsa 10/21, FGW 10/23, Infratest dimap 10/23, Emnid 10/24, INSA 10/27):

CDU/CSU 37.3% (-4.2% compared to the 2013 federal election)
SPD 24.9% (-0.8%)
Left 9.4% (+0.8%)
Greens 10.4% (+2.0%)
FDP 4.8% (no change)
AfD 7.3% (+2.6%)
Others 5.8% (-0.4%)

CDU/CSU+SPD 62.2% (24/69 federal council seats by 2015)
CDU/CSU+Greens+FDP 52.5% (11/69)
CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD 49.4% (6/69 [Bavaria lol])
CDU/CSU+Greens 47.7% (11/69)
=== Majority (FDP in): 47.1%+ ===
SPD+Greens+Left 44.7% (40/69 [including Danes])
=== Majority (FDP out): 44.7%+ ===
CDU/CSU+AfD 44.6% (6/69)
CDU/CSU+FDP 42.1% (6/69)
SPD+Greens+FDP 40.1% (32/69 [including Danes])

Jamaica could be dangerous for all involved parties. Plus it is far from a (not necessary, but useful) majority in the federal council. Rhineland-Palatinate might change, Baden-Württemberg might change, but if so then quite likely from Green-Red to GroKo, which would still make the SPD necessary in the federal council.

Tomorrow we will have a new Forsa poll. Forsa is often the pollster that is most interested in producing headlines, so let's see!


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on October 28, 2015, 05:11:08 am
Well, nothing major. CDU down by 2 (36), Left and AfD down by 1 each (9 and 6 respectively), FDP up by 2 (6). Then again these guys also had the FDP at 7 a couple of months ago.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on October 28, 2015, 06:43:01 am
Rumours go, the CSU is considering to withdraw their ministers from the cabinet, says Germany's biggest tabloid.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on October 28, 2015, 11:25:18 am
I would be very grateful for the link : )
 
Rumours go, the CSU is considering to withdraw their ministers from the cabinet, says Germany's biggest tabloid.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Sozialliberal on October 28, 2015, 04:23:32 pm
Sigmar Gabriel, who is currently Vice-Chancellor and Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, has said that he wants to stand as the SPD candidate for the chancellorship in the next election. It is expected that Merkel will stand for a fourth term, though she hasn't announced it yet. There is a strong feeling of resignation within the SPD. Their bigwigs openly say that they have as good as lost the election already. Although Merkel's popularity has been damaged by her asylum and migration policies recently, I can't see how the SPD would take advantage of this. Can you imagine the SPD nominating someone who criticizes Merkel for being too lenient with refugees/migrants? I can't. It's crazy how much Merkel has changed the CDU. Black-Green is a likely coalition option now. That would have been unthinkable during the Kohl years! Merkel and Gabriel aren't very different ideologically. Merkel could be in the SPD, and Gabriel, who is a typical "Third Way" politician like Gerhard Schröder, could be a CDU member as well.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on October 28, 2015, 04:32:36 pm
CDU/CSU ... worst result since 2013 and 6 points below where they were 2 months ago.

Rumours go, the CSU is considering to withdraw their ministers from the cabinet, says Germany's biggest tabloid.

Good.

Merkel and CDU/CSU deserve all their recent troubles and collapsing poll numbers.

After all, Merkel was elected by the German citizens/voters to serve their interests and not the interests of the millions of migrants, which Rabenmutti now suddenly wants to crowd into the country.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on October 28, 2015, 04:46:38 pm
Oh yeah, because "the Germans" are a monolithic bloc with monolithic interests and opinions...

Link for the newest Seehofer saber shaking: http://www.bild.de/bildlive/2015/18-seehofer-43180494.bild.html


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: MaxQue on October 29, 2015, 01:58:34 pm
CDU/CSU ... worst result since 2013 and 6 points below where they were 2 months ago.

Rumours go, the CSU is considering to withdraw their ministers from the cabinet, says Germany's biggest tabloid.

Good.

Merkel and CDU/CSU deserve all their recent troubles and collapsing poll numbers.

After all, Merkel was elected by the German citizens/voters to serve their interests and not the interests of the millions of migrants, which Rabenmutti now suddenly wants to crowd into the country.

To represent all German voters, not only the racists.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on October 29, 2015, 06:08:24 pm
If the CSU go turncoat, I hope the CDU finally runs in Bavaria and kills off the bums from Bavaria for good. I will then officially retract every mean thing I've said about mutti merkel.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on November 01, 2015, 06:44:53 am
German government approval hits three year low
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/10/29/german-government-approval-hits-three-year-low/

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on November 01, 2015, 06:54:59 am
If the CSU go turncoat, I hope the CDU finally runs in Bavaria and kills off the bums from Bavaria for good. I will then officially retract every mean thing I've said about mutti merkel.

A new poll actually shows the opposite:

Many non-Bavarian Germans have a desire for a CDU in their own state that is more like the CSU.

A federal CSU would get 14.5% of the vote, twice the number of their 2013 share.

The federal CDU would drop from their 34% in 2013 to 27.5%

What's also interesting: If CDU and CSU would decide to run seperately, their combined share would increase from 35% now to 42% (mostly because the pollster argues that many AfD voters would switch over to the federal CSU).

http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article148230658/Dieses-Potenzial-wuerde-die-CSU-bundesweit-entfalten.html


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on November 01, 2015, 07:08:24 am
I always felt FJS was right about this too. The "Union" is less than the sum of its parts. I suppose the CDU's objections to a federal CSU are based on a fear of having to share their "Fraktionsgemeinschaft" and party with a more powerful CSU.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: tpfkaw on November 01, 2015, 10:23:23 am
But wouldn't that lead to the CDU/CSU being at a severe disadvantage in the FPTP seats?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 01, 2015, 12:14:36 pm
But wouldn't that lead to the CDU/CSU being at a severe disadvantage in the FPTP seats?

IIRC, proportional seats are allocated to ensure that the total number of seats is proportional, not just the non-FPTP seats. They even go so far as to add seats to the legislature to ensure proportionality.

CDU/CSU could technically lose every FPTP seat and still get their fair share of seats.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: tpfkaw on November 01, 2015, 01:05:48 pm
But wouldn't that lead to the CDU/CSU being at a severe disadvantage in the FPTP seats?

IIRC, proportional seats are allocated to ensure that the total number of seats is proportional, not just the non-FPTP seats. They even go so far as to add seats to the legislature to ensure proportionality.

CDU/CSU could technically lose every FPTP seat and still get their fair share of seats.

1. CSU currently gets more seats than it "should" by sweeping the FPTP seats in Bavaria, and CDU isn't punished for that in the PR seats because they're separate parties.

2. The minor parties that never win FPTP seats (Grüne, Linke*, FDP and AfD if they get in) are also compensated out of the PR seats pool, leaving fewer PR seats left to compensate CDU/CSU.

*Linke does win a couple in former East Germany, I believe.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Thomas from NJ on November 01, 2015, 02:31:02 pm
New Emnid federal poll:

CDU/CSU: 36%
SPD: 25%
Grünen: 10%
Die Linke: 10%
AfD: 8%
FDP: 5%
Others: 6%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm (http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on November 01, 2015, 02:34:49 pm
New Emnid federal poll:

CDU/CSU: 36%
SPD: 25%
Grünen: 10%
Die Linke: 10%
AfD: 8%
FDP: 5%
Others: 6%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm (http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm)
A bit more transfer between CDU/CSU -> AfD, and even a GroKo won't have a majority...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on November 01, 2015, 04:59:18 pm
But wouldn't that lead to the CDU/CSU being at a severe disadvantage in the FPTP seats?

IIRC, proportional seats are allocated to ensure that the total number of seats is proportional, not just the non-FPTP seats. They even go so far as to add seats to the legislature to ensure proportionality.

CDU/CSU could technically lose every FPTP seat and still get their fair share of seats.

1. CSU currently gets more seats than it "should" by sweeping the FPTP seats in Bavaria, and CDU isn't punished for that in the PR seats because they're separate parties.

2. The minor parties that never win FPTP seats (Grüne, Linke*, FDP and AfD if they get in) are also compensated out of the PR seats pool, leaving fewer PR seats left to compensate CDU/CSU.

*Linke does win a couple in former East Germany, I believe.

No, you're referring to the pre-2013 law. Both 1. and 2. don't apply anymore. Since 2013 seats are distributed completely proportionally (among parties that get in).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Sozialliberal on November 03, 2015, 01:20:10 pm
Here are three reasons why I think that the CSU going federal is very unlikely:

1 The CSU currently plays the role of a populist regional party, especially rhetorically. Its purpose is defending Bavarian interests against the "Prussians". That would no longer work if they had to share their party with said "Prussians".

2 The CSU governed Bavaria without a coalition partner constantly from 1966 to 2008, and they take a lot of pride in that. It was a disaster for them when they lost their absolute majority of seats in 2008. They regained it in 2013, but they would most certainly lose it again if they had to face competition from the CDU.

3 It's not the first time that CSU politicans have ranted about one of Merkel's policies and have backed it anyway in the end. So voters who are not satisified with Merkel's asylum and migration policies could think that the CSU are just "big-mouths" and vote for a new party like the AfD or ALFA instead.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on November 06, 2015, 03:51:30 am
Latest poll for Rhineland-Palatinate (state elections in March 2016):

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/rheinland-pfalz.htm

(Change compared to 2011 election results)

CDU: 41 (+ 5.8  )
SPD: 30 (- 5.7)
Greens: 8 (- 7.4)
FDP: 4 (- 0.2)
Left: 5 (+ 2)
AfD: 6 (+ 6)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on November 08, 2015, 05:20:03 am
Emnid has the AfD at 9%, tying their all time high reached in October of last year (after the wave of successful state elections in eastern Germany).

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm

CDU/CSU: 36 (0)
SPD: 26 (+1)
Greens: 10 (0)
Left: 9 (-1)
AfD: 9 (+1)
FDP: 4 (-1)
Others: 6 (0)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on November 09, 2015, 12:13:51 pm
CDU down to 34% in latest INSA-poll. FDP at 6, AfD at 10%.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on November 09, 2015, 12:14:55 pm
Excellent. People are finally starting to be annoyed with Merkel's shenanigans. If I may ask, who did you vote for in 2013, Beezer?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on November 09, 2015, 01:45:33 pm
Tbf Merkel is a ridiculously wily politician. A lot of people have written her off before but she always manages to electorally demolish her opponents.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DL on November 09, 2015, 02:02:36 pm
CDU down to 34% in latest INSA-poll. FDP at 6, AfD at 10%.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

That's all very well but any way you slice it - it all just means that the next election will lead to another Merkel led "grand coalition" - no other government is viable


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: tpfkaw on November 09, 2015, 03:38:11 pm
CDU down to 34% in latest INSA-poll. FDP at 6, AfD at 10%.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

That's all very well but any way you slice it - it all just means that the next election will lead to another Merkel led "grand coalition" - no other government is viable

Grand coalition is at 58% in that poll and it's dropping. If it continues on the same trajectory (even at a slower pace) it's not going to be a majority anymore by 2017.

And Merkel might find it hard to stay on as party leader if they do worse than in 2009.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on November 09, 2015, 03:58:15 pm
Tbf Merkel is a ridiculously wily politician. A lot of people have written her off before but she always manages to electorally demolish her opponents.

Except for that one time in 2005. She has been able to exploit a period of relative economic strength here in Germany. Most people were ok with her eurozone policies and nobody else really dared to offer an alternative in 2013...what were they going to do, call for eurobonds? Now the tide appears to be slowly but surely turning though and I doubt Merkel really knows what to do. Her policy of solving every crisis with tiny incremental steps is getting nowhere and she has no allies left in Europe.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on November 09, 2015, 04:03:40 pm
Excellent. People are finally starting to be annoyed with Merkel's shenanigans. If I may ask, who did you vote for in 2013, Beezer?

I did vote for the AfD in 2013, mainly because of the CDU-FDP's handling of the eurozone crisis. Before that I had always voted FDP. If the FDP did its job and protected liberal values (by that I mean calling for an end to the influx of millions of people with largely illiberal values), I'd also be open to voting for them again. I don't care much for the AfD's cultural plank since I am perfectly fine with gay marriage and essentially feel people can live their lives whichever way they choose. Right now though my most pressing concern is - surprise, surprise - the migrant crisis which puts me in the awkward position of having to vote for a right-wing populist party.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on November 09, 2015, 04:12:36 pm
I did vote for the AfD in 2013, mainly because of the CDU-FDP's handling of the eurozone crisis. Before that I had always voted FDP. If the FDP did its job and protected liberal values (by that I mean calling for an end to the influx of millions of people with largely illiberal values), I'd also be open to voting for them again. I don't care much for the AfD's cultural plank since I am perfectly fine with gay marriage and essentially feel people can live their lives whichever way they choose. Right now though my most pressing concern is - surprise, surprise - the migrant crisis which puts me in the awkward position of having to vote for a right-wing populist party.
I totally understand. Would've been a fairly loyal FDP voter before 2013 (without hindsight) and an AfD voter in (and after) 2013 as well.

And it's not as if the FDP voted for same-sex marriage when it mattered...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DL on November 10, 2015, 12:58:03 pm
Can someone give me an idea of what a "non-CDU" government in Germany could ever look like? As I see it, the only way it can happen is if something happens that so far shows no sign of hapening and that is for the SPD to start gaining ground and have a shot at becoming the largest party - and even then, the only way you can avoid a "grand coalition" in reverse where the CDU is still in power is if the was a SPD/Green majority OR is some sort of a  traffic-light coalition could emerge where SPD+Green+FDP have a majority OR if there was an end to the taboo against working with the Linke party in which case maybe an SPD+Green+Linke govt could emerge.

But how likely is any of that?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on November 10, 2015, 01:16:11 pm
1. SPD-Green: doesn't seem likely at the moment, given the fact that this combination polls under 35% now and given the fact that the German electorate is not as volatile as, for instance, the Dutch electorate.
2. SPD-Green-FDP: even if the FDP manages to reach the threshold, it would probably prefer cooperation with CDU to cooperation with SPD and the Greens. And then again, we don't even know if this combination would have a majority. Not likely.
3. SPD+Green+Linke: this could be an option ten years from now, if Die Linke has succeeded in shaking off its kinda-toxic position due to its questionable history in regard to (and views toward) the DDR. Even then, however, social democrats generally don't like working together with their more radically socialist counterparts. It tends to hurt them electorally.

In short, unless something changes in terms of electoral preferences, and this could happen between now and 2017 (but I doubt it), it doesn't seem likely that the CDU will not be part of the next government.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on November 10, 2015, 02:06:21 pm
The dates for all 5 state elections in 2016 are now finalized:

13 March ("Super Sunday"):

Baden-Württemberg (10.8 Mio. people), Rheinland-Pfalz (4.1 Mio.), Sachsen-Anhalt (2.2 Mio.)

4 September:

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (1.6 Mio.)

18 September:

Berlin (3.6 Mio.)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on November 10, 2015, 02:57:03 pm
3. SPD+Green+Linke: this could be an option ten years from now, if Die Linke has succeeded in shaking off its kinda-toxic position due to its questionable history in regard to (and views toward) the DDR. Even then, however, social democrats generally don't like working together with their more radically socialist counterparts. It tends to hurt them electorally.
From what I see, the DDR legacy is not the main problem anymore.
SPD and Greens have a bigger problem with many of those that entered the Linke in 2005-2008 for various reasons.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: BundouYMB on November 10, 2015, 03:04:29 pm
Even then, however, social democrats generally don't like working together with their more radically socialist counterparts. It tends to hurt them electorally.

lol wat

Has this ever happened in the modern era? The Left Bloc collapsed in Portugal from 10% to 5% after supporting the Socialists between 2009 and 2011. The Left declined from 12% to 6% while supporting the Social Democrats in Sweden between 1998 and 2006. Social Democrats went from 36% to 35%. The Socialist Left Party went from 13% to 4% supporting various governments between 2001 and 2013. Social Democrats went from 24% to 30%. The IU almost died while cooperating with the PSOE in Spain. Cooperation with the PS killed the PCF in France. The radical left has never fared well in coalition governments. A lot of times it fails to distinguish itself from the Social Democrats and there voters end up getting subsumed. I can honestly not think of a single situation where the Social Democrats lost votes to radical left parties after entering government with them. Most of the times they absorb them.



Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DL on November 10, 2015, 04:14:21 pm
Actually what you are describing is a pretty consistent global phenomenon where junior partners in coalition governments usually get crushed in the following election. Look at how the FDP collapsed from 15% to 4% after being junior partner to Merkel's CDU for four years.. there is also the Lib Dem example in the UK


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: tpfkaw on November 10, 2015, 07:28:13 pm
Has this ever happened in the modern era?

It's how every social-democratic party in Europe became the main left-wing force, although not sure if that counts as "modern era." Or the Italian Socialist Party and the Italian Communist Party, for a more modern example.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Angel of Death on November 11, 2015, 12:26:27 am
Should Germany get its own general discussion thread on the International General Discussion board?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on November 12, 2015, 12:20:19 pm
Should Germany get its own general discussion thread on the International General Discussion board?
This is Germany's general discussion thread, but it's in International Elections because it's in the framework of "Elections and Politics", like e.g. the Dutch and the Austrian threads.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on November 12, 2015, 03:16:41 pm
Big news today: Schäuble referred to an "avalanche" of migrants. Cue (feigned) outrage from the left which accused the poor man of having the audacity to use a widely used term.

My favorite response had to be this Tweet from a Green party member:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on November 12, 2015, 03:20:42 pm
No surprise: Our left-leftist friends are professionals in reality-denying.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: rob in cal on November 12, 2015, 06:33:55 pm
    Is there any chance of an internal coup within the CDU to overthrow Merkel? If that were to happen and someone like Schauble take over would the SPD still want to continue in coalition?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on November 13, 2015, 04:54:15 pm
No surprise: Our left-leftist friends are professionals in reality-denying.
We all know, that dehumanization in terminology is common in Austria, but still there is no reason for this one-liners of yours, every day.

The policy of Europe trying a common policy of blocking the refugees at the outside borders has collapsed and all measures that can be taken to block them while keeping at least remnants of humanity, dignity and civilization will not be sufficient.
Concrete walls and self-shooting devices would, of course. We've had that, already.

The policy of every state building its own fences only leads to new waves, change of routes, uncertainty. It's cynyc to shorten the subsidies for refugee camps in Turkey etc. for years, so that even surviving is no longer sure for those, who have been there for four years, with no perspective for peace or making a living, anymore, and then to tell them they have to stay there forever in the mud, and on the other hand make solemn declamations wanting to "fight the reasons for people fleeing", despite fighting the people fleeing, actually.

And its just cynyc to complain about, that only men were coming (which is not true) and then to forestall family reunion measures.

And its just cynyc for every state to block all people at there borders and just let the other state alone.

Enough ranted.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on November 15, 2015, 05:03:07 am
28 member states will never agree on something as thorny as immigration. So unless Germany wants to welcome them all it's just gonna have to accept some unpalatable measures: Securing the outside border and letting no one in who's coming from a safe country. Period. Then they can register in the camps in Syria's neighboring states with the EU moving some people into the union. Otherwise wave after wave (is that an acceptable term?) will come if they feel they might be able to get asylum just by arriving on the shores of Lesbos.

Anyway, CDU actually gains a point in Emnid poll (now at 37%). Seems they have somewhat bottomed out.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on November 15, 2015, 08:18:27 am
Average of the last five polls (Emnid 11/14, FGW 11/13, Forsa 11/11, INSA 11/9, Infratest dimap 11/5):

CDU/CSU 37.0% (-4.5% compared to 2013 federal election)
SPD 24.8% (-0.9%)
Left 9.2% (+0.6%)
Greens 10.0% (+1.6%)
FDP 5.0% (+0.2%)
AfD 8.2% (+3.5%)
Others 5.8% (-0.4%)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Thomas from NJ on November 18, 2015, 04:10:49 pm
The AfD has hit 10,5% in the latest INSA/YouGov poll on wahlrecht.de, overtaking the Greens and the Left!

CDU/CSU: 35%
SPD: 23,5%
AfD: 10,5%
Grünen: 10,0%
DL: 10,0%
FDP: 5,0%
Others: 6%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Sozialliberal on November 18, 2015, 06:42:52 pm
A football/soccer match in Germany, which was actually meant as a sign of resistance to terrorism after the bomb attack near a football/soccer stadium in Paris, has been cancelled because there were specific indications that a similar attack was planned in the stadium in Germany.

2. SPD-Green-FDP: even if the FDP manages to reach the threshold, it would probably prefer cooperation with CDU to cooperation with SPD and the Greens. And then again, we don't even know if this combination would have a majority. Not likely.

Well, I don't think SPD-Greens-FDP would have a majority in 2017. However, I can imagine that the Third Way-ite Gabriel and the FDP chairman Lindner, who's trying to get rid of the image that the FDP is a mere tax-cut party, would seriously consider such a coalition if it did have a majority. (By the way, Lindner has welcomed two former Pirate Party chairmen into the FDP.)

3. SPD+Green+Linke: this could be an option ten years from now, if Die Linke has succeeded in shaking off its kinda-toxic position due to its questionable history in regard to (and views toward) the DDR. Even then, however, social democrats generally don't like working together with their more radically socialist counterparts. It tends to hurt them electorally.
I actually think that "Die Linke" would be more likely to lose votes in such a coalition. When "Die Linke" were junior partners in governments at regional state level (in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Berlin and Brandenburg), they always lost large shares of votes.

The DDR past of "Die Linke" plays a role, too. However, their foreign policies, which many perceive as utopian and too Putin-friendly, are seen as a much bigger obstacle to a federal red-red-green coalition now.

Controversial foreign policies of "Die Linke":
* opposition to economic sanctions against Russia as a response to the annexion of Crimea
* dissolution of the NATO and establishment of a new military alliance that would also include Russia
* a ban on any exports of arms

    Is there any chance of an internal coup within the CDU to overthrow Merkel? If that were to happen and someone like Schauble take over would the SPD still want to continue in coalition?
The German media have speculated about that. Chancellor Merkel's asylum/migration policies have apparently disunited the CDU. It looks like there is a permissive tendency around Merkel and a restrictive tendency around de Mazière (Minister of the Interior) and Schäuble (Minister of Finance). If an internal coup is actually staged, a snap election would be a near certainty. I don't think the SPD would actually want to continue the coalition in that scenario, but they would probably end up doing it anyway for reasons of state.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on November 18, 2015, 07:00:25 pm
Is it impossible to form a minority government in Germany? Like, why can't the SPD and Greens form a coalition, and be supported on the outside by Linke?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: rob in cal on November 19, 2015, 01:44:29 am
   Yeah, I would think that none of the parties in the Bundestag would like to see new elections, since the AFD have a very good chance of taking seats, and the FDP somewhat, and none of the major parties currently in the Bundestag would want the AFD to get in.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on November 19, 2015, 04:06:56 am
The AfD has hit 10,5% in the latest INSA/YouGov poll on wahlrecht.de, overtaking the Greens and the Left!

CDU/CSU: 35%
SPD: 23,5%
AfD: 10,5%
Grünen: 10,0%
DL: 10,0%
FDP: 5,0%
Others: 6%
The boss of INSA is also an AfD advisor and they get their data from the YouGov online panel. So let us take this with as much salt as possible, until it is confirmed by other pollsters.

https://www.ndr.de/fernsehen/sendungen/zapp/blog/AfD-drittstaerkste-Partei-Zweifel-an-Umfrage,afd330.html (https://www.ndr.de/fernsehen/sendungen/zapp/blog/AfD-drittstaerkste-Partei-Zweifel-an-Umfrage,afd330.html)

For instance, Forsa, which is the only other post-Paris poll out, yet has only an 1-point bump for the Afd, from 7 to 8 per cent.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on November 19, 2015, 04:17:47 am
Quote
Is it impossible to form a minority government in Germany? Like, why can't the SPD and Greens form a coalition, and be supported on the outside by Linke?
1. It is constitutionally possible, but a bit iffy, as the president is allowed to appoint the candidate with the most votes for chancellor, after they have been voting for two weeks, even if he has no absolute majority, but he does not have to. So a minority government needs the de facto approvement of the president to come in place.

2. The biggest German political topos is probably "muh stability, unlike evil Weimar", so the reputation of the model "minority government" isn't that high and it has not been tried as it wasn't necessary, since 1945 on the federal level. There have been some minority governments on state level, but they have had either interim character (like NRW 2010-2012), or have been quasi-coalitions with the junior partner not having ministerial posts (e.g. "Magdeburg model").


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on November 19, 2015, 05:11:26 am
The boss of INSA is also an AfD advisor and they get their data from the YouGov online panel. So let us take this with as much salt as possible, until it is confirmed by other pollsters.

https://www.ndr.de/fernsehen/sendungen/zapp/blog/AfD-drittstaerkste-Partei-Zweifel-an-Umfrage,afd330.html (https://www.ndr.de/fernsehen/sendungen/zapp/blog/AfD-drittstaerkste-Partei-Zweifel-an-Umfrage,afd330.html)

For instance, Forsa, which is the only other post-Paris poll out, yet has only an 1-point bump for the Afd, from 7 to 8 per cent.

And Forsa chairman Güllner, who's quite vocal in his criticism of the AfD, is a member of the SPD. Which no one really cares about. I also think that piece is rather weak. It starts off by saying that INSA's polls "had already placed the AfD in the Bundestag even though that eventually of course wasn't the case." Wow, what a take down. INSA saw the AfD at 5%, it wound up winning 4.7%.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on November 19, 2015, 06:00:17 am
Forsa has it's own flaws, for instance wild swings for the headlines, and regular UNDERPOLLING of the SPD, which is quite funny, given Güllner's party mempership.

Of course, the writers of this peace seam to know nothing about the concept of margin of error. But for the moment, INSA is the outlier, and personal reasons and questionable polling methods may be the reasons for it. Just to put cherrypicked polls in context.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on November 19, 2015, 06:11:32 am
Quote
28 member states will never agree on something as thorny as immigration. So unless Germany wants to welcome them all it's just gonna have to accept some unpalatable measures: Securing the outside border and letting no one in who's coming from a safe country. Period. Then they can register in the camps in Syria's neighboring states with the EU moving some people into the union. Otherwise wave after wave (is that an acceptable term?) will come if they feel they might be able to get asylum just by arriving on the shores of Lesbos.
One thing is, that measures have to be taken that they at least do not starve "in the camps in Syria's neighbouring states", when there are no possibilities of subsistence besides help from outside.

The other thing, what "securing the border" means in this context. Just to send them away is just relocating the problem, obviously and just leading to millions of gipsies. By the way, what a "safe country" is, seems to be subject to sprains of definitions, for instance if one considers the situation of Roma in the Balkan countries, although I get the argument to concentrate on groups that need more help, at the moment, like Syrians. But if one uses this argument, like the Merkel government, one should not contradict it, with new proposed measurements against Syrian refugees, almost every day, as they do now.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on November 19, 2015, 06:19:40 am
In a funny move, Germany's most important public broadcaster, ARD, has decided that Xavier Naidoo is supposed to represent Germany at the next Eurovision song contest.

Naidoo, who first became famous for his Christianity-based soul pop, has outed himself during the last two years (first at the so called "peace picket movement", than at Pegida and the likes) as follower of the "Reichsbürger" movement, that claims, that the Federal republic is not the legitimate government of Germany as the Reich never ceased to exist, and other conspiracy theories, besides homophobia, mysogny and the likes - all those things, that will make him a well respected representative of this country. ;-)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: rob in cal on November 19, 2015, 04:34:35 pm
   Has Die Linke Partei forged a clear policy on the migrant issue?  I would guess that the party leadership would be in favor of a more open borders policy, but could imagine that much of their electorate might not be so in favor of it.  Also, it might be tough for seasoned leftists to be on the same side of an issue as the elites, and the business elites especially.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on November 19, 2015, 07:09:36 pm
The Left as a party has a clear "Let's help the refugees" stance, at least the party leadership has. Red-red-green in Thuringia has a little bit more of an pragmatic edge, but still clearly on the pro side. Left base members and voters, especially in the East, is a more blurred picture, but most opponents either stay at the closet or loosen their ties to the Left, at the moment.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on November 20, 2015, 05:47:55 pm
Bit of an altercation at the CSU party conference today. Merkel with her regular "we can do it" shtick (muted applause only) which then led to Seehofer attacking her while she was standing next to him. Afterwards Mutti left the stage w/o waving to the crowd.

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on November 20, 2015, 06:01:29 pm
Berlin state election poll:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on November 20, 2015, 06:23:26 pm
Now, two other pollsters have (Infratest, GMS) have basically confirmed the AfD upward trend. So Infratest and Forsa have them both up one percentage point on a weekly basis (8 respectively 9 per cent). GMS has them at 9 per cent (+4 up on a monthly basis, just like infratest in their Berlin poll).



Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on November 21, 2015, 04:17:54 pm
If looks could kill...

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on November 25, 2015, 04:53:52 am
Forsa strikes again, sees CDU jump from 36 to 39 percent in a single week. Supposed to be taken with a grain of salt I guess. http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa.htm


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on November 29, 2015, 06:24:05 am
A new poll shows every 2nd German now wants Merkel to retire after this term is over in 2017.

47% of those polled disapprove of Merkel's handling of the migrant crisis, just 40% approve.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/umfrage-48-prozent-gegen-weitere-amtszeit-merkels-a-1065082.html


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on November 30, 2015, 05:54:54 pm
In a referendum in Hamburg 51.6% has voted against applying for the 2024 Olympic Summer Games. Another electoral defeat for big sports organizations and big sports events after Oslo and Munich.
Link: http://www.statistik-nord.de/wahlen/wahlen-in-hamburg/volksentscheide/2015/


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 04, 2015, 01:39:05 am
AfD at 10% in the new Infratest dimap poll:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on December 05, 2015, 05:29:16 am
Pollster says that the vast majority of new AfD voters come from the CDU:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 06, 2015, 05:59:17 am
Sachsen-Anhalt state election (March 13) poll by INSA:

35.0% CDU (+2.5)
23.0% Left (-1.0)
15.5% SPD (-6.0)
13.5% AfD (+13.5)
  6.0% Greens (-1.0)
  3.0% FDP (-1.0)
  4.0% Others (-7.0)

Majorities for CDU-SPD & CDU-AfD, but not for Left-SPD-Greens.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on December 06, 2015, 07:48:04 am
The migrant crisis truly came as a blessing for AfD...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 10, 2015, 01:57:15 pm
New Rheinland-Pfalz state election (in March) poll (by Infratest dimap for SWR):

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: FredLindq on December 10, 2015, 02:09:42 pm
Schwarz-Grüne i Rheinland?!


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 10, 2015, 02:15:45 pm

They have 48% right now compared with 48% for the other parties, so it's unclear.

But the coming state elections in March will all be interesting (Red-Green having no majority anymore in RP, and neither does the Green-Red coalition in Baden-Württemberg).

The AfD will gain across the board, maybe getting 10% or more in the 2 south-western states and 15-20% in the eastern Sachsen-Anhalt.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Sozialliberal on December 12, 2015, 04:04:01 pm
Yesterday, Sigmar Gabriel was re-elected as SPD chairman. He received 74.3 % of the delegate vote, making it the second-worst result for an SPD chairman since 1946. Only Oskar Lafontaine received a lower share of votes in 1995, when he challenged the incumbent Rudolf Scharping. Since no one ran against Gabriel, the result is an even greater embarrassment for him.

So why did more than a quarter of the delegates vote against him? Well, there's his staunch support for the free-trade agreements TTIP and CETA, his championship of data retention and his remarks about not ruling out a temporary Grexit. He also irritated many follow SPD members when he engaged in a dialogue with supporters of the anti-Islamic movement Pegida.

Sigmar Gabriel's results in SPD chair elections, sorted by year:
2009: 94.2 %
2011: 91.6 %
2013: 83.6 %
2015: 74.3 %

Worst election results for SPD chairmen since 1946:
62.6 % (Oskar Lafontaine, 1995)
74.3 % (Sigmar Gabriel, 2015)
76.0 % (Gerhard Schröder, April 1999)
79.4 % (Rudolf Scharping, June 1993)
80.8 % (Gerhard Schröder, 2003)

Best election results for SPD chairmen since 1946:
99.7 % (Kurt Schumacher, 1947)
99.7 % (Kurt Schumacher, 1948)
99.4 % (Willy Brandt, 1966)
99.4 % (Matthias Platzeck, 2005)
98.8 % (Hans-Jochen Vogel, 1988)

Source of the election results: stern.de (http://www.stern.de/politik/die-wahlergebnisse-der-spd-vorsitzenden-seit-1946-6599252.html)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Sozialliberal on December 21, 2015, 04:18:49 pm
Hitler's "Mein Kampf" to be republished in January 2016 due to copyright expiration

In the European Union, a work is protected under copyright up to 70 years after the author's death. The copyright expires on 1 January of the following year. Because Adolf Hitler died on 30 April 1945, the copyrights of his works will expire on 1 January 2016. That means that anyone in the European Union will be able to legally publish Hitler's works without having to ask for permission.

The copyright history of "Mein Kampf" is quite interesting: Hitler had been registered as a resident of Munich, Bavaria until his death. Since Bavaria was part of the American occupation zone, the American Military Government seized Hitler's property (including his intellectual property). It was planned that the respective regional states confiscate the property of people who are responsible for the Nazi crimes. Each of the suspects had to be brought to trial. Hitler was found guilty in 1948 and his property was confiscated by the Free State of Bavaria. As a result, the Free State of Bavaria, represented by the Bavarian Ministry of Finance, became the copyright holder of "Mein Kampf".

The Bavarian Ministry of Finance always refused a republication of "Mein Kampf" and brought lawsuits against people or companies that published "Mein Kampf" in Germany or abroad. However, the book could still be published legally in English-speaking countries because the company "Random House" acquired the publishing rights for that area in the 1930s. With the advent of the Internet era, the prohibition on the publication of "Mein Kampf" has become ineffective. Anyone in Germany can download it.

The 2016 edition will be published by the Institut für Zeitgeschichte ("Institute for Contemporary History"). This institute is financed by the Federal Republic of Germany and seven regional states (including Bavaria). Commentaries by historians and about 3,700 footnotes will be added to the 781-page original so that the whole edition will contain roughly 2,000 pages in two volumes. The production of the edition started in 2009.

Bavaria temporarily supported the project from April 2012 on but withdrew in December 2013. The Bavarian Ministry of Finance holds the opinion that the spread of "Mein Kampf" would still be illegal in Germany after the copyright expiration because the book is anticonstitutional propaganda and incitement to hatred. The republication remains controversial. The assembly of the justice ministers of the regional states left it open whether they will prohibit the 2016 edition by the Institut für Zeitgeschichte.

My personal opinion is that it would be very stupid to prohibit the Institut für Zeitgeschichte edition. I'm shocked by the excessive prohibition mentality of some of my fellow citizens. Why not inform the public with this annotated edition?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on January 01, 2016, 12:59:01 pm
Germans are complete morons when it comes to this topic. Anyone wanting to read Mein Kampf can do so already. If it's a complete piece of junk, publish it so all those w/o internet access can see for themselves what a depraved human being Hitler was. They're in a sense glorifying the book by keeping it under wraps.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on January 07, 2016, 04:49:24 am
The following parties will be on the Rheinland-Pfalz state election ballot on March 13:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on January 07, 2016, 04:55:17 am
"Der 3. Weg" (The Third Way) is a Neo-Nazi party, btw.

Could also be named "The Third Reich" instead ... :P

...

I also thought "Die Einheit" (Unity) was Neo-Nazi, but it's actually a pro-migrant party.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on January 07, 2016, 06:19:08 am
What are the ideological differences between Der 3. Weg and the NPD?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on January 07, 2016, 08:26:03 am
What are the ideological differences between Der 3. Weg and the NPD?

Their party names ?

;)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on January 07, 2016, 05:36:50 pm
The "Dritte Weg" is actually a "freie Kameradschaft" (street-fighting Nazi hoodlums) with a party banner, while the NPD is only collaborating and openly supporting such structures without beeing one and also have some people who ocassionally were suits.

So it is more a matter of style then ideology.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: MaxQue on January 07, 2016, 07:39:29 pm
The "Dritte Weg" is actually a "freie Kameradschaft" (street-fighting Nazi hoodlums) with a party banner, while the NPD is only collaborating and openly supporting such structures without beeing one and also have some people who ocassionally were suits.

So it is more a matter of style then ideology.

Given Germany love for censorship and over-nannying (ie. the dreadful, dictatorial and index-like BPjM), how those "Kameradschaft" not banned?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on January 07, 2016, 07:46:25 pm
Isn't Der 3. Weg something close to paganism-nationalism? NPD is rather rarely touching issue of religion as far as I know.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on January 07, 2016, 09:01:43 pm
I, too, am amazed by the fact that this vile organization is not only still allowed to exist, but can even contest in elections. Wow.

Anyway, I looked up some more information on them. It seems that they are, indeed, pagans: they are explicitly anti-Christian and want to replace Christianity with "Artgemeinschaft" ideas, which is basically Germanic paganism mixed with racism/white supremacism. They are also very "leftist"/interventionist when it comes to the economy, standing within the tradition of the NSDAP's left (though I'm not sure if this is much different from the NPD).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on January 09, 2016, 08:37:05 am
Quote
Given Germany love for censorship and over-nannying (ie. the dreadful, dictatorial and index-like BPjM), how those "Kameradschaft" not banned?
The BPjM isn't index-like. "Media imperiling the youth" are going "on the index", literally.

The irony is, that the "Kameradschaft" organisations this party is based on are already banned, but parties are specially protected by the Grundgesetz, in that they only can be banned via the Constitutional court. . This is an expensive procedure, so it is only used for quiet important parties and not for obscure right and left wing splinter groups. (There is an NPD case pending at the moment, but it would only be the third banned party in BRD/FRG history). There is also a minor procedure, that the Constitutional Court can state, that an organisation isn't a party, so it can be banned as a normal association. This happened to another militant Neonazi organisation, the FAP (Freiheitliche Arbeiterpartei) in 1994.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on January 12, 2016, 04:35:22 am
First polling after the Cologne "incidents" shows the AfD at a new record-high and the SPD at a new record low (CDU/CSU is also pretty low):

35.0% CDU/CSU
21.5% SPD
11.5% AfD
10.0% Greens
10.0% Left
  6.0% FDP
  6.0% Others


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on January 12, 2016, 06:29:57 am
First time that AfD comes in third?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on January 12, 2016, 10:45:33 am
No, they've already been third federally in November. But with the Istanbul bombing having made mostly German casualties, we can expect them to only go up from here...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on January 13, 2016, 03:58:47 am
AfD also at 9% in Forsa poll, best result since Oct. 2014 and tied for their highest ever with that polling firm.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa.htm


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on January 14, 2016, 08:40:50 am
Polls for March state elections

Saxony-Anhalt...could AfD actually come in 2nd?

CDU 33 %
Left 19 %
SPD 19 %
AfD 15 %
Greens 5 %
FDP 3 %

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/sachsen-anhalt.htm (http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/sachsen-anhalt.htm)

Rhineland-Palatinate

CDU 37 %
SPD 31 %
Greens 9 %
AfD 8 %,
FDP 5 %
Left 5 %

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/rheinland-pfalz.htm


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on January 14, 2016, 04:54:29 pm
Baden-Württemberg poll (change compared to Dec. 2015):

CDU 35 (-2)
Greens 28 (+3)
SPD 15 (-3)
AfD 10 (+2)
FDP 6 (+1)
Left 3 (-1)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/baden-wuerttemberg.htm


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: rob in cal on January 15, 2016, 01:42:29 am
     Beezer, what do you think  the new Baden Wurtemberg government would look like if the polls hold up like that?  A CDU FDP coalition with the AFD tolerating it?  Or would the AFD not want to do this and thus maybe a CDU SPD coalition, or CDU minority government?  Would love to see the AFD overtake SPD as third largest party, that would make for a nice electoral earthquake.  If there is no sign of a lessening of the refugee flows that might be possible, I would think.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on January 15, 2016, 04:21:27 am
I think for the time being the AfD like most upstart right wing parties would want to steer clear of any governing responsibility. At the same time it would cause huge outrage if the CDU took over with the help of the AfD. The party is treated like a pariah by the establishment and it is by far Merkel's most vehement critic. You really can't portray a party like the AfD as racists and then get into bed with them. Scholars would probably also argue that this might only legitimize the party and make it even stronger in future elections as voters are sent the signal that far from being too far to the right, the AfD is just another player within the German party system. So marching orders from Berlin would probably put a stop to any sort of cooperation with them.

So what are the other options then...perhaps another grand coalition could be in the cards for BW. Seems like the only viable gov. majority.

New poll commissioned by German public broadcaster ZDF showing the AfD in 3rd place as well (#s compared to Dec 11):

CDU 37 (-2)
SPD 24
AfD 11 (+2)
Grüne 10
Linke 8 (-1)
FDP 5 (+1)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/politbarometer.htm


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on January 15, 2016, 04:30:09 am
Latest Infratest-dimap polls + west and east preferences:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on January 15, 2016, 04:40:52 am
How do you rate Merkel's handling of the refugee crisis (gut = good, schlecht = bad/poor)?

(Image Link)

http://www.heute.de/fluechtlingskrise-merkel-stuerzt-ab-mehrheit-haelt-obergrenze-von-200.000-nicht-fuer-machbar-41820126.html


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on January 15, 2016, 03:18:40 pm
Polls for March state elections

Saxony-Anhalt

AfD 15 %

Rhineland-Palatinate

AfD 8 %

Baden-Württemberg poll (change compared to Dec. 2015):

AfD 10 (+2)

...

The AfD will gain across the board, maybe getting 10% or more in the 2 south-western states and 15-20% in the eastern Sachsen-Anhalt.

My prediction (even before the Cologne rapes) doesn't look that off now ...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Sozialliberal on January 16, 2016, 01:36:15 pm
Black-Green would also be a viable coalition in Baden-Württemberg. Both top candidates, Wolf (CDU) and Kretschmann (Greens), said they don't rule it out.

The situation in Saxony-Anhalt, however, looks more complicated. A continuation of the grand coalition could be the only viable coalition there. It's unclear whether Red-Red-Green will have a majority.

By the way, Saxony-Anhalt has the reputation of being the state with the most volatile electorate in Germany. Look up their state election results from 1990 onwards and you'll understand why.

The CDU top candidate in Rhineland-Palatinate, Julia Klöckner, is decidedly more restrictive/conservative than Chancellor Merkel when it comes to asylum/immigration/integration policies. It will be interesting to see if it'll pay off for her on election day.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on January 17, 2016, 06:00:15 am
Black green sounds interesting. Would the Greens really enjoy playing second fiddle to the CDU though, particularly one that will inevitably move to the right on the migrant topic (and after they've held the office of state premier)? Feels to me like the CDU has backed itself into a corner here. If it enters another high-profile coalition with the Greens my hunch is that even more of the party's right will migrate to the AfD. At the same time it only has one other credible coalition partner, the SPD.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Thomas from NJ on January 17, 2016, 05:57:59 pm
New Emnid poll

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm (http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm)

CDU/CSU: 38%
SPD: 24%
Grünen: 10%
AfD: 9%
DL: 9%
FDP: 5%
Others: 5%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on January 18, 2016, 04:26:23 pm
INSA

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Donnie on January 18, 2016, 04:50:30 pm

For German standards this poll should be seen as an earthquake...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on January 20, 2016, 06:06:35 am
Forsa now has the AfD tieing their all-time high as well.

CDU 37 (-1)
SPD 23
Greens 10
FDP 5
Left 9 (-1)
AfD 10 (+1)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa.htm

The AfD has also overtaken both the Greens and left in this poll of polls: http://pollytix.de/wahltrend

CDU 36.4
SPD 23.2
AfD 10.3
Greens 10.0
Left 9.2
FDP 5.2

In such a scenario a CDU-Green coalition would be just shy of a majority.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on January 20, 2016, 06:41:24 am
INSA Baden-Württemberg poll (change since last INSA poll from October):

CDU 35 % (-5)
GRÜ 29 % (+5)
SPD 13 % (-3)
AfD 11,5 % (+3.5)
FDP 6,5 % (+1.5)
Left ?

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/baden-wuerttemberg.htm

Might not even be enough for a classic grand coalition.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: tpfkaw on January 20, 2016, 06:43:21 am

First poll showing a result where if the CSU refused to join, a grand coalition potentially wouldn't have a majority.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on January 20, 2016, 03:27:29 pm
INSA Baden-Württemberg poll (change since last INSA poll from October):

CDU 35 % (-5)
GRÜ 29 % (+5)
SPD 13 % (-3)
AfD 11,5 % (+3.5)
FDP 6,5 % (+1.5)
Left 2.5% (-2.5) (fixed that for you, hope you won't mind)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/baden-wuerttemberg.htm

Might not even be enough for a classic grand coalition.
A "grand coalition" with the SPD at ca. 13% and in third (or maybe even fourth) place sounds strange. I would rather call it black-red. Black-green would be the real grand coalition.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Sozialliberal on January 20, 2016, 05:45:26 pm
First poll showing a result where if the CSU refused to join, a grand coalition potentially wouldn't have a majority.

I don't think that will happen, though. The CSU is like a dog that barks but doesn't bite.

There won't be a state election in Hesse anytime soon, but this poll struck me because I believe it's the first time that a poll suggests that the AfD is the third party in a state of former West Germany.

State election poll for Hesse (current government: CDU + Greens):
34 %, CDU
26 %, SPD
12 %, AfD
11%, Greens
8 %, The Left
5 %, FDP
4 %, other parties
(1,000 people were polled by Infratest dimap between 12th and 16th January 2016.)


The poll was part of a survey. I think the following part is interesting, too. The questions asked were: "What do you think is the most important political problem in Hesse that needs to be prioritized? What is the second most important?" The questions were open-ended. All responses were subsumed under categories. The results are:

70 %; refugee crisis, foreigners
23 %; education, school, job training
9 %; unemployment, job market
8 %; crime, violence
7 %; economic situation
6 %; social injustice
5 %; family policy, day nursery places
5 %; transport
4 %; budget, regional state debt
4 %; housing


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on January 21, 2016, 05:07:56 am
There won't be a state election in Hesse anytime soon, but this poll struck me because I believe it's the first time that a poll suggests that the AfD is the third party in a state of former West Germany.

There's actually a state in which the AfD might soon be 2nd: Hamburg.

New Trend Research/Radio Hamburg poll:

37% SPD (-9)
14% CDU (-2)
13% AfD (+7)
13% Greens (+1)
10% Left (+1)
  8% FDP (+1)
  5% Others (+1)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/hamburg.htm


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on January 21, 2016, 05:11:41 am
Also, a new ZDF poll for BW confirms yesterday's INSA poll:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on January 21, 2016, 05:33:09 am
The SWR and the MDR (the main state TV stations in Baden-Württemberg, Rheinland-Pfalz and Sachsen-Anhalt) have refused to let the AfD participate in the TV debates for the March 13 state elections.

This can only help the AfD because ignoring and censoring a party won't go anywhere.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on January 21, 2016, 05:42:57 am
Exactly. It could actually be a blessing in disguise since I don't know how well AfD-candidates would handle a gang assault in one of those tv debates. So they won't be present but will be present seeing as I'm sure the broadcasters will address the issue during the debates. Win/win for the AfD and an additional layer of support for their "the press does the bidding of the mainstream parties" argument.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on January 21, 2016, 08:46:32 am
The SWR and the MDR (the main state TV stations in Baden-Württemberg, Rheinland-Pfalz and Sachsen-Anhalt) have refused to let the AfD participate in the TV debates for the March 13 state elections.

This can only help the AfD because ignoring and censoring a party won't go anywhere.

FDP and Left Party weren't allowed to that debates either.

Just saying... everyone seems to obsess themselves over the AfD like the other two parties don't even exist anymore.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: rob in cal on January 21, 2016, 01:01:34 pm
   This would make a second place finish for the AFD in Saxony Anhalt that much more hilarious.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on January 21, 2016, 01:20:30 pm
Tell me again, why did Germany oppose the new Polish media law? Something related to partisanship, right?

But yeah, it's admittedly somewhat of a different story if Die Linke is excluded as well. Why is that? A debate with only CDU, SPD and the Greens is weird.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on January 21, 2016, 07:13:08 pm
Tell me again, why did Germany oppose the new Polish media law? Something related to partisanship, right?

But yeah, it's admittedly somewhat of a different story if Die Linke is excluded as well. Why is that? A debate with only CDU, SPD and the Greens is weird.
You know "serious-business" and that sort of things. Which FDP is now clearly excluded from, happily enough.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on January 21, 2016, 07:20:56 pm
Tell me again, why did Germany oppose the new Polish media law? Something related to partisanship, right?



I guess its just part of tendency - Germany lost Eastern ally/goon with PO lose. They just support PO/.nowoczesna/whatever in their struggle against PiS. Although I far as I remember they most aggressive were German politicians but not from the Merkel cabinet but those from EU structures.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on January 21, 2016, 07:50:32 pm
Tell me again, why did Germany oppose the new Polish media law? Something related to partisanship, right?

But yeah, it's admittedly somewhat of a different story if Die Linke is excluded as well. Why is that? A debate with only CDU, SPD and the Greens is weird.
You know "serious-business" and that sort of things. Which FDP is now clearly excluded from, happily enough.
Yeah, I definitely understand why the FDP is excluded (and I'm as happy about that as you), but excluding Die Linke and AfD doesn't seem to make sense.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on January 22, 2016, 04:38:34 am
ZDF poll confirms AfD's strong position in Rhineland-Palatinate (compared to previous FGW/ZDF poll in early November)

CDU 38 % (-3)
SPD 31 % (+1)
AfD 9 % (+3)
GRÜ 7 % (-1)
FDP 5 % (+1)
LIN 5 % (0)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on January 22, 2016, 01:33:31 pm
Bild headline: Will Merkel soon be forced out of office?

(Image Link)

I'd say unthinkable headline a couple of weeks ago.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on January 24, 2016, 05:12:20 am
Numbers from the new federal Emnid poll:
CDU/CSU 40% among women, 32% among men (more extreme than usually, but not too far from normal, old women have been the strongest CDU/CSU group by far for years)
SPD 30% among women, 20% among men (new, in the past the German social democrats have had a relatively even support, often being slightly stronger with men)
AfD 2% among women, 17% among men (LOL, the most extreme gender balance I've ever seen, not even the FPÖ comes close...)

I didn't find numbers for the other parties, but they should add up to ca. 28% among women and ca. 31% among men. Probably the Greens are much stronger with women, while FDP, small parties and the Left should be stronger among men.

In the past there was rarely an extreme gender divide in voting behaviour, in particular on the left-right axis. Yes, CDU/CSU and Greens were stronger among women and most other parties slightly stronger among men, but nothing like the extreme divide seen in some other countries or now in Germany.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on January 24, 2016, 05:21:27 pm
Complete data:

(Image Link)
https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/691302285067030528


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Oak Hills on January 24, 2016, 11:43:42 pm
How is it possible for the AfD to have such low support among women while having such high support among men? That's very unusual.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on January 25, 2016, 01:21:41 am
Latest poll from today (Unique Research, n=800) shows the gender gap among FPÖ-voters is small:

34% among men
27% among women

FPÖ-vote overall: 31%

...

By age:

16-29: 33%
30-49: 37%
50+:    25%

http://epaper.heute.at/#/documents/160125_HEU/4


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on January 25, 2016, 03:31:15 am
How is it possible for the AfD to have such low support among women while having such high support among men? That's very unusual.

I suppose some of it could be down to the margin of error? As others have pointed out, right-wing populist parties are traditionally male dominated parties (at least at the base). I know it might sound sexist but women just don't like parties that appear rash, potentially violent and somewhat inhumane.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on January 25, 2016, 04:37:02 am
How is it possible for the AfD to have such low support among women while having such high support among men? That's very unusual.

Not really. Compare for example with Sweden Democrats in Sweden. The last poll that made a break-down by gender showed a 15% gap in support for the party.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on January 25, 2016, 06:56:26 am
I suppose some of it could be down to the margin of error? As others have pointed out, right-wing populist parties are traditionally male dominated parties (at least at the base).
I think this difference is significant, well beyond what the margin of error could explain. But yes, RRWPs are often understood to be Männerparteien, so AfD is by no means unusual in that regard. In "Gendering the vote for populist radical-right parties", Spierings and Zaslove found that there is indeed a gender gap in support for European RRWPs, but that the phenomenon is overemphasized in the sense that the same phenomenon occurs to mainstream right-wing parties, albeit (for obvious reasons) to a smaller extent. The breakdown of RRWPs' voters by gender tends to be somewhere around 60% men, 40% women, although the Dutch PVV is an exception to this, being closer to 50/50.

It doesn't surprise me that SD and AfD seem to stand out in this regard, because they operate in a political environment that is most hostile to RRWPs -- so one would expect these patterns to be more prevalent in Sweden and Germany.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 25, 2016, 11:45:51 am
Though equally you need to be careful about reading too much into poll internals, particularly at a midpoint stage in a parliamentary term.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on January 25, 2016, 12:17:56 pm
Bild headline: Will Merkel soon be forced out of office?

(Image Link)

I'd say unthinkable headline a couple of weeks ago.

And according to Beatrix von Storch, Merkel is gonna be forced to flee into Chilean exile!


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on January 25, 2016, 12:59:44 pm
[...]
And according to Beatrix von Storch, Merkel is gonna be forced to flee into Chilean exile!
That's an allusion to Margot Honecker, former Eastern German Minister of Education and wife of Erich Honecker, the last leader of socialist Eastern Germany. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margot_Honecker (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margot_Honecker)
Von Storch is comparing Merkel, who has a DDR past, to Margot Honecker.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: President Johnson on January 25, 2016, 02:25:55 pm
CDU/CSU ... worst result since 2013 and 6 points below where they were 2 months ago.

Rumours go, the CSU is considering to withdraw their ministers from the cabinet, says Germany's biggest tabloid.

Good.

Merkel and CDU/CSU deserve all their recent troubles and collapsing poll numbers.

After all, Merkel was elected by the German citizens/voters to serve their interests and not the interests of the millions of migrants, which Rabenmutti now suddenly wants to crowd into the country.

The problem with that is, that only populists are benefit from that. The least thing I want to have after 2017 (and in the states) is another grand coalition. That only weackens democracy. But the rise of right-wing populists make it impossible for other coalitions to emerge. Just look at Austria, they have a grand coalition all the time.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on January 26, 2016, 05:41:42 am
[...]
And according to Beatrix von Storch, Merkel is gonna be forced to flee into Chilean exile!
That's an allusion to Margot Honecker, former Eastern German Minister of Education and wife of Erich Honecker, the last leader of socialist Eastern Germany. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margot_Honecker (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margot_Honecker)
Von Storch is comparing Merkel, who has a DDR past, to Margot Honecker.

What's your point?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on January 26, 2016, 05:52:39 am
[...]
And according to Beatrix von Storch, Merkel is gonna be forced to flee into Chilean exile!
That's an allusion to Margot Honecker, former Eastern German Minister of Education and wife of Erich Honecker, the last leader of socialist Eastern Germany. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margot_Honecker (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margot_Honecker)
Von Storch is comparing Merkel, who has a DDR past, to Margot Honecker.
What's your point?
Palandio is probably just explaining this to non-German posters who didn't get the reference.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on January 26, 2016, 04:34:38 pm
Exactly. My thought was that most international readers might have wondered "Why Chile?".
(Of course Paul Schäfer was also in a certain sense a German exilee in Chile, but I don't think von Storch wanted to compare Merkel to a pedophile, fascist cult and concentration camp founder.)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on January 27, 2016, 06:18:30 am
Allensbach poll (compared to Dec 16)

CDU 35 (-3)
SPD 25 (-1)
AfD 10 (+2)
Linke 9,5 (+1)
Grüne 9 (-0,5)
FDP 6,5 (+1,5)
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/allensbach.htm


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on January 27, 2016, 06:57:02 am
Isn't the AfD already at 13% in the YouGov poll ?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on January 27, 2016, 08:20:57 am
Yeah. And this poll of poll indicates that the CDU is heading south across the board once again.

(Image Link)
http://pollytix.de/wahltrend


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on January 29, 2016, 07:13:13 am
40 percent of Germans demand Merkel's resignation over refugee policy, poll says

While 39.9 percent of Germans surveyed by the pollster Insa for "Focus" magazine said Chancellor Angela Merkel's refugee policy is grounds for her to step down, 45.2 percent of the more than 2,000 people polled said they did not believe she should leave office. The remaining 15 percent did not state an opinion.

http://www.dw.com/en/40-percent-of-germans-demand-merkels-resignation-over-refugee-policy-poll-says/a-19011014


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on January 29, 2016, 08:29:32 am
According to the latest ZDF Politbarometer, 83% of all Germans say that they experienced "only minor problems" or "no problems" with the refugees living in their area (or that no refugees live in their area at all).

70% say that they're not afraid to become a victim of a refugee-related crime.

66% expect an increase in the crime rate due to the refugees.

54% disapprove of Chancellor Merkel's refugee/immigration policies, 41% approve.

52% name either the CDU/CSU or the SPD as the party with the "greatest competence" with regards to refugee/immigration policies. 30% say either "no party" or "don't know". 12% say either Greens, Left Party, or FDP. 6% say AfD.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on January 31, 2016, 10:41:50 am
CDU/CSU with their worst showing in an Emnid poll since the summer of 2012:

CDU/CSU 34 (-2)
SPD 24 (-1)
AfD 12 (+2)
Left 10 (+1)
Greens 9
FDP 5

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on January 31, 2016, 10:48:18 am
Looks like Germany is getting ready and learn how to "protest-vote" in the March state elections.

Merkel and Co. will see a huge middle-finger from the voters due to her reckless migrant policy ...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on January 31, 2016, 11:00:49 am
Looks like Germany is getting ready and learn how to "protest-vote" in the March state elections.

Merkel and Co. will see a huge middle-finger from the voters due to her reckless migrant policy ...

Not sure if the net impact will be that large.  Yes AfD will go up a lot but the net impact will be more Grand Coalitions between CDU and SPD.  Also 2011 tend to be a fairly bad year for CDU so not clear they will not lose that much votes relative to 2011.  Most likley AfD will gain more from SPD Greens Linke and Pirates relative to 2011.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Hnv1 on February 01, 2016, 04:19:01 am
I cannot understand the SPD membership, why do they keep Gabriel in place? the party is clearly drifting into a junior coalition partner oblivion


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on February 01, 2016, 05:54:29 am
I cannot understand the SPD membership, why do they keep Gabriel in place? the party is clearly drifting into a junior coalition partner oblivion
Why? The SPD is relatively stable in the polls. It's the CDU that is losing.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: aross on February 01, 2016, 06:35:16 am
I cannot understand the SPD membership, why do they keep Gabriel in place? the party is clearly drifting into a junior coalition partner oblivion
Internal democracy in the SPD has always been very weak (e.g. Helmut Schmidt, who managed to cling to office despite being basically the only the person in the party supporting his pro-cruise missile defence policy), and a membership increasingly consisting of pensioners hasn't helped.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: rob in cal on February 01, 2016, 11:41:15 am
   Doesn't it make sense that the SPD is holding its place in the polls.  I would think most of its electorate wouldn't be too opposed to Merkels migrant policy.  It would be the CDU electorate which I would think would be more opposed to it.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on February 01, 2016, 12:04:20 pm
  Doesn't it make sense that the SPD is holding its place in the polls.  I would think most of its electorate wouldn't be too opposed to Merkels migrant policy.  It would be the CDU electorate which I would think would be more opposed to it.
Yes, and let's also not forget that some prominent SPD members have come out as critical of Merkel's policies. They are open about being to Merkel's "right" on this issue. Also, the SPD is already the most immigration-critical option on the German left (seeing as the Greens and Die Linke either support Merkel's policies or something even "leftier" than that). Immigration-critical left-wing Germans have nowhere else to go; they could theoretically vote AfD, of course, but this party will be too right-wing for many people, and also too "ostracized". It is simply too big of a step for many.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Hnv1 on February 01, 2016, 12:20:41 pm
I cannot understand the SPD membership, why do they keep Gabriel in place? the party is clearly drifting into a junior coalition partner oblivion
Why? The SPD is relatively stable in the polls. It's the CDU that is losing.
I would think their ambition is to be in power not to be a stable runner up...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on February 01, 2016, 01:30:38 pm
I cannot understand the SPD membership, why do they keep Gabriel in place? the party is clearly drifting into a junior coalition partner oblivion
Why? The SPD is relatively stable in the polls. It's the CDU that is losing.
I would think their ambition is to be in power not to be a stable runner up...
But would they be much more successful with a new leader? Given the current political climate and the developments in other European countries I highly doubt it. I could imagine the SPD becoming more popular if they take a clear stance to Merkel's right on immigration, but that's a risky thing to do in Germany.

In some sense, the political situation in Germany has become similar to that in Sweden. Neither the left (Rot-Rot-Grün; which, in Germany, would probably not be a viable option anyway, unlike an all-left-wing government in Sweden) nor the bourgeois right (Union + FDP; Alliance for Sweden) has a majority. There is a third political force (AfD; SD), which is ostracized, that prevents any majority government that does not depend on working across the aisle from being formed. Of course, working across the aisle in forming governments is easier in Germany than in Sweden, since the Germans have much less of a problem with grand coalitions. But it also means that there aren't exactly many alternatives to an Union+SPD grand coalition, even after the next election... if the election results will look anything like the current polls, that is.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: tpfkaw on February 01, 2016, 03:46:10 pm
I could imagine the SPD becoming more popular if they take a clear stance to Merkel's right on immigration, but that's a risky thing to do in Germany.

The Danish Social Democrats have tried that, with mixed/unclear results. It really wouldn't be possible for the SPD to walk back their position that far given "refugees welcome" and how maximalist and strident the German left's rhetoric has been. They would infuriate too many of their core supporters; it would be like if Hillary started attacking Obamacare from the right. Plus a very large percentage of the SPD vote is now coming from immigrants, and they would likely decamp to the Greens, Linke or maybe even CDU.

If for some reason they did go in that direction, and it would be very risky, probably the best way to finesse it would be to 1. replace the leader, 2. endorse immigration controls as part of a repudiation of "neoliberal" policies in general, and 3. announce they will not agree to another grand coalition, nor will they continue to honor the cordon sanitaire against Linke. Basically, position themselves along the lines of Andy Burnham, polarize German politics into camps, and stem the losses to the Greens and CDU by poaching from Linke and AfD. But most likely it would backfire.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on February 01, 2016, 05:57:54 pm
[...] Plus a very large percentage of the SPD vote is now coming from immigrants, [...]
I don't agree. At most 10% of people that are allowed to vote in German elections have a "migrational background" which includes having one foreign-born parent and the like. This also includes over 5 million ethnic German Spätaussiedler from the ex-USSR, Poland and Romania (ok, subtract the children), who certainly are not more pro-refugee than non-immigrants.
I would estimate that non-Spätaussiedler voters with "migrational background" make up about 4% of all German voters. About half of them might vote SPD, maybe less. So at most 10% (probably less) of current SPD voters are immigrants and their descendants. If that is a high percentage for you, then so be it.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Thomas from NJ on February 02, 2016, 11:20:23 pm
New INSA/YouGov poll (http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm)

CDU/CSU: 33%
SPD: 23%
AfD: 12,5%
Grünen: 10%
Linke: 10%
FDP: 6%
Others: 5,5%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: tpfkaw on February 03, 2016, 07:17:43 pm
[...] Plus a very large percentage of the SPD vote is now coming from immigrants, [...]
I don't agree. At most 10% of people that are allowed to vote in German elections have a "migrational background" which includes having one foreign-born parent and the like. This also includes over 5 million ethnic German Spätaussiedler from the ex-USSR, Poland and Romania (ok, subtract the children), who certainly are not more pro-refugee than non-immigrants.
I would estimate that non-Spätaussiedler voters with "migrational background" make up about 4% of all German voters. About half of them might vote SPD, maybe less. So at most 10% (probably less) of current SPD voters are immigrants and their descendants. If that is a high percentage for you, then so be it.

The estimates I've seen are that 60-70% of German Muslims vote SPD, with the rest mostly going for the left as well. But 10% of a party's support is quite a lot; the Democrats or Republicans losing 10% of their support is the difference between a nailbiter like 2000 and a landslide like 1980 or 1996.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on February 03, 2016, 07:43:46 pm
But 10% of a party's support is quite a lot; the Democrats or Republicans losing 10% of their support is the difference between a nailbiter like 2000 and a landslide like 1980 or 1996.
This is obviously different in a multi-party system. While I agree that losing 10% of a party's support matters (but 10% is a rather high estimation, given the fact that turnout among Muslims is likely lower than among non-Muslims), this is a bad example.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on February 03, 2016, 08:33:09 pm
Well, assuming the migrant crisis doesn't stay in the news till 2017 (although it could, I guess), thing can snap to a "status quo" very easily. German voters did that last time, irt the brief Greenmania and the Pirates. Only time will tell if the AfD can pull off a lasting colonisation of the right space of German politics against the colossus of the CDU party machine.

(Image Link)

What's the FDP's reaction to the crisis btw? I notice they've dipped up in the polls.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on February 04, 2016, 08:52:30 am
[...] Plus a very large percentage of the SPD vote is now coming from immigrants, [...]
I don't agree. At most 10% of people that are allowed to vote in German elections have a "migrational background" which includes having one foreign-born parent and the like. This also includes over 5 million ethnic German Spätaussiedler from the ex-USSR, Poland and Romania (ok, subtract the children), who certainly are not more pro-refugee than non-immigrants.
I would estimate that non-Spätaussiedler voters with "migrational background" make up about 4% of all German voters. About half of them might vote SPD, maybe less. So at most 10% (probably less) of current SPD voters are immigrants and their descendants. If that is a high percentage for you, then so be it.

The estimates I've seen are that 60-70% of German Muslims vote SPD, with the rest mostly going for the left as well. But 10% of a party's support is quite a lot; the Democrats or Republicans losing 10% of their support is the difference between a nailbiter like 2000 and a landslide like 1980 or 1996.
So now it's only Muslims we're talking about, not immigrants in general? Muslim German citizens make up at most 3% of German citizens (depends on who you count as a Muslim). Keeping in mind the reform of citizenship laws under Red-Green, a very large chunk of them is probably under 18, while the older generations (35+) have to a large degree not requested German citizenship.
But 10% of a party's support is quite a lot; the Democrats or Republicans losing 10% of their support is the difference between a nailbiter like 2000 and a landslide like 1980 or 1996.
This is obviously different in a multi-party system. While I agree that losing 10% of a party's support matters (but 10% is a rather high estimation, given the fact that turnout among Muslims is likely lower than among non-Muslims), this is a bad example.
Exactly, even among those German Muslims that are allowed to vote, turnout is clearly below average. Altogether German Muslims are not (yet) a relevant voting bloc like e.g. Maghrebis in France or Pakistanis/Bengalis in the UK. They are also quite diverse. The relatively largest group probably has a Sunni Turkish "guest worker" rural Anatolian background. But what about the Alevis, the Bosniaks, the Kurds, the Lebanese, the ex-stateless Palestinians and the nominally Muslim hard-left Turkish and Iranian 80s political emigrants? Do they all vote for the SPD, the Greens and the Left for the same reasons?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 04, 2016, 08:57:27 am
What's the FDP's reaction to the crisis btw? I notice they've dipped up in the polls.

More or less in line with Merkel, I think.

FDP federal chairman Christian Lindner gave a speech in the Northrhine-Westphalian state parliament a few days ago in which he stopped short of calling the AfD Nazis.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/umgang-mit-der-afd-sie-verharmlosen-die-wahren-feinde-unserer-gesellschaft-14048089.html


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 04, 2016, 11:38:46 am
...or Pakistanis/Bengalis in the UK.

Who don't actually form a single voting bloc either (and there are also Gujarati Muslims, and if we're talking of London then the Turkish Cypriots, the Turks, the Kurds...) even if sometimes there is related electoral movement.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: rob in cal on February 10, 2016, 04:48:55 pm
   I'm wondering what type of election results in the upcoming Lander elections would lead to increasing calls for Merkel to go?  Isn't it likely that the CDU will actually take power in BW, whether in coalition or a minority government, so that fact alone might soften the blow for her?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on February 10, 2016, 05:46:48 pm
Yes, it is likely and yes, of course taking power in BW is much better for Merkel than staying in opposition in BW. But compared to repeating the 2011 desaster everything looks good. Not taking power in BW is unimmaginable for the CDU. Losing five percentage points compared to the desaster of 2011, but somehow taking power in a coalition with the SPD or the Greens, would be better, but still very bad.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 11, 2016, 02:32:35 pm
Rhineland-Palatinate:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 16, 2016, 07:56:58 am
Wahl-o-mat for the Saxony-Anhalt state election is out:
http://wahlomat.spiegel.de/sa2016w/


My results were...

Greens 73.7%
Left 72.4%
Free Voters 63.2%
FDP 59.2%
SPD 56.6%
AfD 44.7%
NPD 38.2%
CDU 35.5%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on February 16, 2016, 08:02:47 am
Assuming that AfD does not collapse over the next couple of election cycles (like the Pirates did) and FDP gets across the 5% mark it seems that most reasonable future projections of election results over the next couple of elections will always end up with CDU/CSU-SPD grand alliance.  Only way out is for SDP-Green to accept Linke as an alliance partner, FDP agree to join SDP-Greens, or CDU/CSU-FDP accept AfD as an alliance partner.  I wonder which three is more likely to take place ?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 16, 2016, 08:14:17 am
My results:

71.0% Animal Protection Party
71.0% Animal Protection Alliance
71.0% Free Voters
68.5% Greens
66.1% Left
63.7% The Party
62.9% SPD
59.7% FBM
59.7% The Right
57.3% AfD
54.0% FDP
54.0% ALFA
50.0% NPD
37.9% CDU


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 16, 2016, 08:38:54 am
Only way out is for SDP-Green to accept Linke as an alliance partner, FDP agree to join SDP-Greens, or CDU/CSU-FDP accept AfD as an alliance partner.  I wonder which three is more likely to take place ?

You forgot a CDU/Green coalition which is actually more likely than any of those three IMO.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on February 16, 2016, 08:42:53 am
Only way out is for SDP-Green to accept Linke as an alliance partner, FDP agree to join SDP-Greens, or CDU/CSU-FDP accept AfD as an alliance partner.  I wonder which three is more likely to take place ?

You forgot a CDU/Green coalition which is actually more likely than any of those three IMO.

Not sure there are the numbers for that if both FDP and AfD goes over 5%.  Perhaps CDU/CSU-FDP-Green ?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DL on February 16, 2016, 10:01:52 am
Only way out is for SDP-Green to accept Linke as an alliance partner, FDP agree to join SDP-Greens, or CDU/CSU-FDP accept AfD as an alliance partner.  I wonder which three is more likely to take place ?

You forgot a CDU/Green coalition which is actually more likely than any of those three IMO.

Not sure there are the numbers for that if both FDP and AfD goes over 5%.  Perhaps CDU/CSU-FDP-Green ?

Isnt that what they call a "Jamaica coalition"??


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on February 16, 2016, 10:10:14 am
AfD 67,9%
FDP 64,1%
CDU 61,5%
Tierschutzpartei 61,5%
Freie Wähler 51,3%
NPD 51,3%
ALFA 48,7%
SPD 48,7%
Die Partei 35,9%
LINKE 28,2%
Grüne 25,6%

Would vote for AfD.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 17, 2016, 04:12:08 am
States where the AfD is polling above 10%

Saxony-Anhalt: 17%
Mecklenburg-West Pommerania: 16%
Thuringia: 13.5%
Saxony: 13%
Hamburg: 13%
Hessen: 12%
Brandenburg: 11%
Baden-Württemberg: 10.5%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 17, 2016, 06:33:12 am
Wahl-o-mat for the Rhineland-Palatinate state election is out:
http://wahlomat.spiegel.de/rp2016w/

My results:
Pirate Party 72.4%
Left 71.1%
SPD 69.7%
Greens 65.8%
CDU 60.5%
Free Voters 59.2%
FDP 51.3%
AfD 40.8%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on February 17, 2016, 06:42:10 am
ALFA 72,6%
AfD 67,9%
FDP 56%
SPD 50%
CDU 48,8%
Piraten 45,2%
Grüne 33,3%
Linke 33,3%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on February 17, 2016, 08:25:14 am
Latest Saxony-Anhalt poll by Infratest dimap

CDU   32
SPD   18
Linke  20
Green  5
FDP     4
AfD    17

What a surge by AfD.  I guess it took over the NPD vote and clawed support from across the board.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on February 17, 2016, 08:57:03 am
Saxony-Anhalt has quite a big potential for a right-wing protest vote. In the 1998 regional elections the far-right DVU https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_People's_Union reached as much as 12.9%. This was quite a shock at that time. They had electoral spots like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gG8bZ_gWBbQ


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 18, 2016, 12:37:04 pm
CDU tanking in Baden-Württemberg (compared to January results from the same pollster):

CDU: 31 (-4)
Greens: 28 (0)
SPD: 14 (-1)
AfD: 12 (+2)
FDP: 8 (+2)
Left: 4 (+1)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/baden-wuerttemberg.htm


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DL on February 18, 2016, 03:51:47 pm
CDU tanking in Baden-Württemberg (compared to January results from the same pollster):

CDU: 31 (-4)
Greens: 28 (0)
SPD: 14 (-1)
AfD: 12 (+2)
FDP: 8 (+2)
Left: 4 (+1)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/baden-wuerttemberg.htm

Looks to me like the only possible government in that scenario would be a Green-led "traffic light coalition" with the SPD and FDP - right?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: tpfkaw on February 18, 2016, 04:53:29 pm
CDU tanking in Baden-Württemberg (compared to January results from the same pollster):

CDU: 31 (-4)
Greens: 28 (0)
SPD: 14 (-1)
AfD: 12 (+2)
FDP: 8 (+2)
Left: 4 (+1)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/baden-wuerttemberg.htm

Looks to me like the only possible government in that scenario would be a Green-led "traffic light coalition" with the SPD and FDP - right?

That seems less plausible than CDU-Greens or CDU-SDP-FDP.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 19, 2016, 01:40:06 am
Can't wait for the German voters to show the middle-finger to Merkel.

It's time for her to press the "STOP"-button at her migrant vacuum cleaner and go from welcome policy to determent/deportation policy ...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 19, 2016, 05:02:06 am
Wahl-o-mat for the Baden-Württemberg state election is out:
https://www9.wahl-o-mat.de/bw2016/main_app.php

Left 84.2%
Greens 80.3%
Pirate Party 76.3%
SPD 76.3%
Free Voters 46.1%
FDP 36.8%
AfD 34.2%
CDU 26.3%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 19, 2016, 06:00:37 am
My Ba-Wü results:

AfD 83%
CDU 76.1%
ALFA 75%
FDP 64.8%
Pirates 47.7%
SPD 39.8%
Greens 36.4%
Left 30.7%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 19, 2016, 06:12:43 am
My results for BW:

78.9% ÖDP
78.9% The Party
75.0% Animal Protection Party
75.0% Animal Protection Alliance
73.4% Human World
72.7% DKP
72.7% SPD
72.7% Left
71.1% Greens
71.1% Pirates
59.4% The Right
57.8% Alliance C
56.3% Free Voters
53.9% NPD
47.7% AfD
43.8% ALFA
43.0% CDU
42.2% FDP
39.8% BüSo
39.1% REP


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on February 19, 2016, 06:25:47 am
Has anyone seen "likelihood to vote" questions in the recent polls ?

I guess turnout will be up significantly because of the migrant situation, much like in the recent Austrian state elections.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on February 19, 2016, 07:01:09 pm
CDU tanking in Baden-Württemberg (compared to January results from the same pollster):

CDU: 31 (-4)
Greens: 28 (0)
SPD: 14 (-1)
AfD: 12 (+2)
FDP: 8 (+2)
Left: 4 (+1)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/baden-wuerttemberg.htm

Looks to me like the only possible government in that scenario would be a Green-led "traffic light coalition" with the SPD and FDP - right?

That seems less plausible than CDU-Greens or CDU-SDP-FDP.
Yeah I don't think Ampelkoalitions (traffic-light) are a thing nowadays. They haven't been for quite a while, and it's just not really in the air.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Thomas from NJ on February 21, 2016, 07:24:22 pm
Wahl-o-mat for the Baden-Württemberg state election is out:
https://www9.wahl-o-mat.de/bw2016/main_app.php

AfD: 76,3%
Republicans: 73,7%
ALFA: 64,5%
CDU: 63,2%
FDP: 60,5%
Greens: 40,8%
SPD: 34,2%
Left: 28,9%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Boston Bread on February 22, 2016, 02:20:00 am
I got
Pirate 71.1%
Left 71.1%
Green 64.5%
ODP 63.2%
SPD 63.2%
FDP 44.7%
AfD 39.5%
CDU 39.5%
which is a little surprising as I'd still feel fairly enthusiastic about supporting SPD.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 22, 2016, 04:02:14 am
New INSA polls for BW, RP, and ST.

The Kretschmentum helps the Greens in taking the lead in Baden-Württemberg, CDU and SPD are in a close race for 1st place in Rheinland-Palatinate, and the SPD falls behind the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt.

Baden-Württemberg
Greens 30.5%
CDU 30%
SPD 16%
AfD 10%
FDP 7%
Left 3%

Rhineland-Palatinate
CDU 35%
SPD 33%
Greens 9%
AfD 8.5%
FDP 7%
Left 4%

Saxony-Anhalt
CDU 30%
Left 21%
AfD 17%
SPD 16%
Greens 5%
FDP 4%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 22, 2016, 06:20:39 am
^^

Possible coalitions with these results:

BW: Greens/CDU, Greens/SPD/FDP, CDU/SPD/FDP.
Both Greens/SPD and CDU/SPD miss a majority very narrowly (Greens would need 0.5% more for that).

RP: CDU/SPD, CDU/Greens/FDP, SPD/Greens/FDP

ST: CDU/SPD


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: RodPresident on February 22, 2016, 06:48:28 am
^^

Possible coalitions with these results:

BW: Greens/CDU, Greens/SPD/FDP, CDU/SPD/FDP.
Both Greens/SPD and CDU/SPD miss a majority very narrowly (Greens would need 0.5% more for that).

RP: CDU/SPD, CDU/Greens/FDP, SPD/Greens/FDP

ST: CDU/SPD
Would a revived FDP more receptive to traffic-light coalitions?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on February 22, 2016, 07:08:29 am
^^

Possible coalitions with these results:

BW: Greens/CDU, Greens/SPD/FDP, CDU/SPD/FDP.
Both Greens/SPD and CDU/SPD miss a majority very narrowly (Greens would need 0.5% more for that).

RP: CDU/SPD, CDU/Greens/FDP, SPD/Greens/FDP

ST: CDU/SPD
Would a revived FDP more receptive to traffic-light coalitions?

They still prefer coalitions with the CDU.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on February 22, 2016, 03:01:40 pm
If the CDU somehow comes in second in both BW and RLP things might get a bit uncomfortable for Merkel.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Hnv1 on February 23, 2016, 11:50:26 am
Wahl-o-mat for the Saxony-Anhalt state election is out:
http://wahlomat.spiegel.de/sa2016w/

Die Partei 75
Piraten 65.8
DKP 61.8
Linke 60.5
SPD 60.5
ALFA 53.9
Die Rechte 53.9
AfD 52.6
CDU 52.6
Green 51.3
NPD 51.3
FDP 44.7

not sure what to make of this


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on February 23, 2016, 12:25:25 pm
(bw)

90.9% die linke
89.8% dkp
83.0% tierschutzpartei
80.7% piraten
79.5% grüne
77.3% tierschutzallianz
76.1% spd
73.9% menschliche welt
68.2% ödp
60.2% die partei
54.5% büso
46.6% freie wähler
43.2% bündnis c
38.6% fdp
31.8% afd
30.7% alfa
30.7% die rechte
29.5% cdu
26.1% npd
20.5% rep

i was strongly leaning toward voting for die linke anyway, so…


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on March 02, 2016, 03:50:29 pm
Lol: Greenie MP Volker Beck has stepped down because the police just found out that he possessed 0.6 gram of crystal meth. Beck was an MP since 1994. He declared that he "has always propagated a liberal drug policy". Okay.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on March 03, 2016, 07:24:02 am
Lol: Greenie MP Volker Beck has stepped down because the police just found out that he possessed 0.6 gram of crystal meth. Beck was an MP since 1994. He declared that he "has always propagated a liberal drug policy". Okay.

(Image Link)

That's actually the second meth head discovered in the Bundestag in two years... the last one was Michael Hartmann (SPD) in 2014.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Diouf on March 03, 2016, 12:26:20 pm
(Image Link)
(Image Link)
(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on March 04, 2016, 04:23:16 am
Data from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen/ZDF:

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Seems like that first ever 4th place finish for the SPD is becoming more and more likely...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: rob in cal on March 04, 2016, 12:03:08 pm
   Any ideas of who are the leading parties of the other parties getting 7% in Saxony Anhalt?  If a lot of that is to rightist splinter parties, that's even more of a big protest vote.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on March 04, 2016, 12:32:15 pm
Wow. The rise of AfD is such so in 2 out of the 3 states even the CDU-SPD grand alliance will not have a majority.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on March 04, 2016, 12:33:30 pm
Wasn't there this odd trend a few years back where the courts were declaring war on electoral thresholds? Is that still occurring?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Cranberry on March 04, 2016, 12:48:36 pm
Wow. The rise of AfD is such so in 2 out of the 3 states even the CDU-SPD grand alliance will not have a majority.

Well, in BaWü CDU-Greens is at this point the real grand coalition, not anymore CDU-SPD. Still, this AfD surge is indeed big and shocking, though to be expected, sadly.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on March 06, 2016, 07:07:41 am
   Any ideas of who are the leading parties of the other parties getting 7% in Saxony Anhalt?  If a lot of that is to rightist splinter parties, that's even more of a big protest vote.

According to a brand new uniQma poll (whoever that is...) it's the Free Voters with 4%:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Voters

The full poll results for Saxony-Anhalt:
CDU 30%
Left 19%
SPD 18%
AfD 17%
Greens 5%
FDP 4%
Free Voters 4%
NPD 1%
Others 2%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on March 06, 2016, 10:09:41 am
Pretty remarkable that the NPD is down from 4,6% (in 2011) to 1% in a time when one would expect them to thrive. Whether you agree with the AfD or not, we can probably all agree that it is a good thing that they are able to attract such voters and weaken the electoral position of the literal nazis.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on March 06, 2016, 11:58:00 am
Pretty remarkable that the NPD is down from 4,6% (in 2011) to 1% in a time when one would expect them to thrive. Whether you agree with the AfD or not, we can probably all agree that it is a good thing that they are able to attract such voters and weaken the electoral position of the literal nazis.

oh, quite the opposite. it is unambiguously a bad thing that the afd is granting them legitimacy.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DC Al Fine on March 06, 2016, 12:25:10 pm
Pretty remarkable that the NPD is down from 4,6% (in 2011) to 1% in a time when one would expect them to thrive. Whether you agree with the AfD or not, we can probably all agree that it is a good thing that they are able to attract such voters and weaken the electoral position of the literal nazis.

How has NPD performed relative to the polls historically? If there's a shy Tory effect, it seems logical that there would be a big shy Nazi effect.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on March 06, 2016, 01:58:33 pm
Pretty remarkable that the NPD is down from 4,6% (in 2011) to 1% in a time when one would expect them to thrive. Whether you agree with the AfD or not, we can probably all agree that it is a good thing that they are able to attract such voters and weaken the electoral position of the literal nazis.

I don't give a sh**t whether NPD voters go for the AfD now. You can put lipstick on a pig, but it is still a pig.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: rob in cal on March 06, 2016, 07:17:20 pm
    Hessen local elections today showed AFD getting seats in cities throughout Hessen.  A good sign for the party for the coming votes next week. 


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 07, 2016, 03:37:36 am
According to new INSA polls for the 3 state elections next Sunday, the AfD now has a chance to overtake the Left in Saxony-Anhalt and become 2nd largest party there with ~20%.

In BW, the Greens expand their lead over the CDU to ~5%, while the AfD is marching towards 15%.

In RP, CDU and SPD are in a close fight for first with both having ~35%.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on March 07, 2016, 10:27:38 am
Super Sunday is shaping up to be quite something.

Hessen municipal elections:

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Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Gustaf on March 08, 2016, 11:16:56 am
Pretty remarkable that the NPD is down from 4,6% (in 2011) to 1% in a time when one would expect them to thrive. Whether you agree with the AfD or not, we can probably all agree that it is a good thing that they are able to attract such voters and weaken the electoral position of the literal nazis.

oh, quite the opposite. it is unambiguously a bad thing that the afd is granting them legitimacy.

I think it depends - in theory there is a case for either side. Forcing extremists into a more moderate fold can mitigate their impact by forcing them closer to the centre. On the other hand, it can also increase their impact if they can use a bigger party as a vehicle for their ideas and policies.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on March 08, 2016, 03:51:49 pm
The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) have "asked" the two remaining AfD members in the European Parliament - Beatrix von Storch and Marcus Pretzell - to leave their group by March 31. If they don't, the ECR is gonna vote on expulsing them.

Meanwhile, the NPD has launched a vote-splitting campaign for the upcoming state elections: AfD for the direct candidate, NPD for the party list. Much to the AfD's dismay.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on March 08, 2016, 05:09:09 pm
Lmao. Merkel might have been pushing Cameron to do so. Not the smartest move, considering the fact that ALFA will probably be gone next time (but maybe the Tories will be gone too...). Well, either Farage or Le Wilders will be delighted by this news.

Meanwhile, the NPD has launched a vote-splitting campaign for the upcoming state elections: AfD for the direct candidate, NPD for the party list. Much to the AfD's dismay.
Good trolling, I have to admit.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on March 08, 2016, 05:13:13 pm
Lmao. Merkel might have been pushing Cameron to do so. Not the smartest move, considering the fact that ALFA will probably be gone next time (but maybe the Tories will be gone too...). Well, either Farage or Le Wilders will be delighted by this news.

The Spiegel Online article on the subject implied that the two other German parties within the ECR group (ALFA and the Family Party of Germany) have pushed hard for this.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on March 08, 2016, 05:36:33 pm
The Spiegel Online article on the subject implied that the two other German parties within the ECR group (ALFA and the Family Party of Germany) have pushed hard for this.
I can imagine that the relationship between the ALFA MPs and the remaining AfD MPs must have been somewhat... strained.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see whether they will choose to go to ENF or EFD now. I think EFD, as the less radical choice, is more likely, but at the same time AfD and the FPÖ have been relatively close recently, and AfD, as a fairly pro-Russian party, might feel more at home in ENF (which is full of pro-Russian parties, except for the Dutch PVV) than in the relatively pro-Atlantic EFD group.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Aboa on March 08, 2016, 07:12:34 pm
The Spiegel Online article on the subject implied that the two other German parties within the ECR group (ALFA and the Family Party of Germany) have pushed hard for this.
I can imagine that the relationship between the ALFA MPs and the remaining AfD MPs must have been somewhat... strained.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see whether they will choose to go to ENF or EFD now. I think EFD, as the less radical choice, is more likely, but at the same time AfD and the FPÖ have been relatively close recently, and AfD, as a fairly pro-Russian party, might feel more at home in ENF (which is full of pro-Russian parties, except for the Dutch PVV) than in the relatively pro-Atlantic EFD group.

I guess joining ENF would be the end of AfD even trying to appear as ''moderate''.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on March 10, 2016, 05:23:50 am
Why the imminent electoral success of the AfD makes me worry about the future of democracy

I'm in the somewhat unfortunate position that I've got a job where I come in regular contact with AfD supporters/members and have to debate with them. Nowadays it's via mail and Facebook. Fortunately I don't have to do on the phone anymore, because that is a *truly* frustrating experience. The frustrating part is that a very high number of AfD supporters seem to have disconnected themselves from any rational discourse. Trying to win them back for our democracy is a lost cause. That goes along with a affinity for conspiracy theories. These are people who believe that the "mainstream media" is government propaganda and lies to them on a regular basis. At the same time, they regard rumours on the Internet and Russian state media as credible sources. Because they chose only to believe what they want to believe. With worrying frequency I come across reasonings along the lines of "I don't have any proof for that, but I do believe it anyway, because it fits with what I think I know about it". They also seems to be a worrying and increasing correlation between support for the AfD and a admiration for Vladimir Putin and his policies. Some of it is again due to conspiracy theories, some of it is due to plain anti-Americanism (which seems to be rather widespread among AfD supporters), and some if it is because they frankly want to have the same kind of government like they do in Russia. So, what happens with this country if that kind of thinking is not successfully contained, but continues to spread? Could we actually end up with a government like they have in Russia at some point?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DC Al Fine on March 10, 2016, 06:41:46 am
With worrying frequency I come across reasonings along the lines of "I don't have any proof for that, but I do believe it anyway, because it fits with what I think I know about it".

How is this different from supporters of every other political party of the world? There is nothing new under the sun.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: MaxQue on March 10, 2016, 12:40:24 pm
With worrying frequency I come across reasonings along the lines of "I don't have any proof for that, but I do believe it anyway, because it fits with what I think I know about it".

How is this different from supporters of every other political party of the world? There is nothing new under the sun.

But they aren't a fifth column from an hostile government.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on March 10, 2016, 01:07:10 pm
I'm scared that the main political divide in Germany tends to not be anymore between two or more respectable positions, but increasingly between an alternative-less mainstream consensus and the hateful anti-system fringe.

YouGov came out with a new online poll for the Baden-Württemberg and the Rheinland-Pfalz elections.

The new average of the last five polls (published between March 3 and March 10) for Baden-Württemberg is:

CDU 28.7% (-10.3% from 2011)
Greens 32.3% (+8.1%)
SPD 13.3% (-9.8%)
FDP 7.2% (+1.9%)
Left 3.6% (+0.8%)
AfD 11.7% (new)
Others 3.2% (-2.3%)

The new average of the last five polls for Rheinland-Pfalz is:

CDU 35.4% (+0.2%)
SPD 34.6% (-1.1%)
Greens 6.4% (-9.0%)
FDP 5.6% (+1.4%)
Left 3.8% (+0.8%)
AfD 9.6% (new)
Others 4.6% (-1.8%)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2016, 02:11:19 pm
My predictions for the Sunday state elections:

Baden-Württemberg:

30.4% Greens
29.0% CDU
15.1% AfD
12.3% SPD
  7.0% FDP
  2.9% Left
  3.3% Others

Rheinland-Pfalz:

32.6% CDU
32.0% SPD
14.5% AfD
  6.7% Greens
  6.3% FDP
  3.6% Left
  4.3% Others

Sachsen-Anhalt:

28.8% CDU
20.2% AfD
19.7% Left
14.9% SPD
  5.4% FDP
  5.3% Greens
  2.6% FW
  3.1% Others


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DL on March 10, 2016, 02:26:03 pm

The new average of the last five polls for Rheinland-Pfalz is:

CDU 35.4% (+0.2%)
SPD 34.6% (-1.1%)
Greens 6.4% (-9.0%)
FDP 5.6% (+1.4%)
Left 3.8% (+0.8%)
AfD 9.6% (new)
Others 4.6% (-1.8%)

Am I correct that the only possible government in this scenario is a grand coalition and the only real question is whether the CDU or SPD finishes first since that party would supply the premier?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on March 10, 2016, 03:01:41 pm
@DL: Yes, basically. The only other thing that could happen is that FDP or Greens fall below 5% because of the head-to-head race between SPD and CDU.

The current 5-poll average for Sachsen-Anhalt (Infratest dimap, FGW, INSA, Forsa, the fifth being UniQma instead of YouGov):

CDU 30.4% (-2.1%)
Left 20.0% (-3.7%)
SPD 16.1% (-5.4%)
Greens 5.3% (-1.8%)
FDP 4.3% (+0.5%)
AfD 18.0% (new)
Others 5.9% (-5.4%) [UniQma: Free Voters at 4%]

Personal predictions tomorrow or on Saturday.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on March 11, 2016, 05:43:17 pm
Baden-Württemberg:

32.0% Greens
27.5% CDU
13.5% AfD
13.0% SPD
  7.5% FDP
  3.0% Left
  3.5% Others

26 constituencies won by CDU: Neckar-Odenwald, Biberach, Ehingen, Sigmaringen, Balingen, Main-Tauber, Freudenstadt, Tuttlingen-Donaueschingen, Rottweil, Aalen, Bruchsal, Wangen, Calw, Hechingen-Münsingen, Pforzheim, Schwäbisch Gmünd, Kehl, Neckarsulm, Eppingen, Enz, Hohenlohe, Backnang, Villingen-Schwenningen, Geislingen, Böblingen, Bretten
44 constituencies won by the Greens: All others (34 gains from CDU, 1 gain from SPD)

Rheinland-Pfalz:

35.0% SPD
34.0% CDU
11.0% AfD
  7.0% FDP
  5.5% Greens
  3.5% Left
  4.0% Others

24 constituencies won by SPD: Like last time plus Pirmasens (gain from CDU)
27 constituencies won by CDU

Sachsen-Anhalt:

30.0% CDU
20.0% Left
19.5% AfD
15.5% SPD
  4.5% FDP
  4.5% Greens
  3.5% FW
  2.5% Others

1 constituency won by The Left: Halle I
1 constituency won by AfD: Wolfen (gain from CDU)
43 constituencies won by CDU: All others (2 gains from Left, 1 gain from SPD)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 12, 2016, 02:09:04 am
Absentee ballot requests are up across the board .. by as much as 45% in Rheinland-Pfalz, 20-30% in Baden-Württemberg (which already had much higher turnout in 2011 due to Fukushima and Stuttgart 21) and even in Sachsen-Anhalt.

It will be interesting to see if there's higher turnout tomorrow due to the migrant crisis. In the state elections in Austria last year, turnout increased by quite a bit.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 12, 2016, 08:18:52 am
My turnout estimates:

BW: ~67% (+1)
RP: ~65% (+3)
SA: ~53% (+2)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Sozialliberal on March 12, 2016, 06:07:35 pm
The FDP top candidate in Baden-Württemberg said he is aiming for a "Germany coalition" (named after the colours of the German national flag), a coalition of CDU, SPD and FDP, because neither Black-Yellow nor Black-Red would have a majority according to polls. Such coalitions were formed in some states until the late 1950s. He ruled out a Green-led traffic-light coalition (Greens, SPD + FDP).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 02:01:26 am
Polls in all 3 "Super Sunday" states are now open !

Polls close at 6pm, which is when we'll get first projections.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on March 13, 2016, 05:21:21 am
Just voted for Baden-Württemberg at ca. 11 am local time. Cloudy, cold wind, but no rain or snow, should be good conditions for turnout. I saw quite a few people on the streets, clearly going to or returning from the polling place. Still turnout until now hasn't been very high, which is not too surprising given the nature of my ward, and even the (not so many) church-goers probably are voting only now.

Exit-polls at 6 pm, projections based on real counts at ca. 6:30 pm. Partial counts are not as usual as they are in other countries.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: President Johnson on March 13, 2016, 06:34:44 am
Yep, polls are open. Just voted SPD.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 07:03:26 am
Turnout up significantly so far (until 12:00) in both BW and SA.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: President Johnson on March 13, 2016, 07:24:30 am
Yes, turnout is high in Baden Württemberg. Especially in larger cities. This is good news for the governing Green-Red-Coalition.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 07:36:37 am
Quote
In Rheinland-Pfalz lag die Wahlbeteiligung um 12.00 Uhr - einschließlich der Briefwähler - bei 44 Prozent und damit 13 Prozentpunkte über dem Wert der vorangegangenen Landtagswahl im März 2011. Das teilte ein Sprecher des Landeswahlleiters mit. (http://www.deutschlandfunk.de/landtagswahlen-hoehere-wahlbeteiligung-bis-zum-mittag.1818.de.html?dram:article_id=348221)

Turnout in RP was 44% at 12:00 - up from 31% at the same time in 2011.

:)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 07:40:03 am
When does polls close ?  I assume 5PM Berlin time ?

6pm.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2016, 07:40:48 am

Thanks.  I just saw the same info earlier in the thread.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2016, 07:47:33 am
Yes, turnout is high in Baden Württemberg. Especially in larger cities. This is good news for the governing Green-Red-Coalition.

Could be.  But could it also not be urban AfD voters who were non-voters before coming out in large numbers?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 07:50:11 am
If the current trends hold, then my new updated turnout projections for today are:

75% Rheinland-Pfalz (+13%)
70% Baden-Württemberg (+4%)
56% Sachsen-Anhalt (+5%)

Damn ... Easterners, get your lazy asses up and go voting !


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: President Johnson on March 13, 2016, 07:58:48 am
If the current trends hold, then my new updated turnout projections for today are:

75% Rheinland-Pfalz (+13%)
70% Baden-Württemberg (+4%)
56% Sachsen-Anhalt (+5%)

Damn ... Easterners, get your lazy asses up and go voting !

Turnouts are always low in the east. One reason why right-wingers are so strong.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 08:08:47 am
If the current trends hold, then my new updated turnout projections for today are:

75% Rheinland-Pfalz (+13%)
70% Baden-Württemberg (+4%)
56% Sachsen-Anhalt (+5%)

Damn ... Easterners, get your lazy asses up and go voting !

Turnouts are always low in the east. One reason why right-wingers are so strong.

Yes, turnout is high in Baden Württemberg. Especially in larger cities. This is good news for the governing Green-Red-Coalition.

Could be.  But could it also not be urban AfD voters who were non-voters before coming out in large numbers?

Both of you are right: In the Upper Austria and Vienna state elections, the first elections in central Europe impacted by the migrant crisis, there was a big increase in turnout (like in Germany today).

On the one hand, the high turnout (82% in Upper Austria and 75% in Vienna) led to a slight underperforming of the FPÖ relative to polls. But they still managed to get 31% in both states.

Based on this, it's likely that the AfD does really well today - because many previous non-voters are voting. Of course this might also help the established parties to some extent and the AfD might for example not break 20% in SA, or 15% in BW and RP and remain slightly below ...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 08:20:26 am
Turnout in Sachsen-Anhalt has picked up even more ...

At 2pm, it was 35.4% (+7%).

Overall, it could hit close to 60% (+9%), if the trend continues.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2016, 08:25:28 am
Any links to results?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 08:30:48 am

RP: http://www.wahlen.rlp.de/ltw/wahlen/2016/index.html

SA: https://www.statistik.sachsen-anhalt.de/wahlen/lt16/index.html

The BW site has broken down ...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: President Johnson on March 13, 2016, 10:02:39 am
First results expected to come in in two hours


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Donnie on March 13, 2016, 10:11:23 am
Which parties profit from this increased turnout?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on March 13, 2016, 10:14:43 am
Which parties profit from this increased turnout?
Mainly AfD, probably.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 10:54:25 am
16:00 turnout updates:

+13% Rheinland-Pfalz
  +7% Sachsen-Anhalt
  +5% Baden-Württemberg

New estimates: 75% RP, 71% BW, 58% SA


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on March 13, 2016, 10:57:44 am
Sachsen-Anhalt has Landescode ST for a reason... :3


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 11:02:11 am
Sachsen-Anhalt has Landescode ST for a reason... :3

I know, but I don't care (mostly because Americans would be confused) ... :P


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 11:15:00 am
Hundreds of riot police are protecting the AfD headquarters in Stuttgart for their election (victory ?) party ...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 11:21:51 am
Live streams ...

ARD (http://www.live-stream.tv/online/fernsehen/deutsch/ard.html)

ZDF (http://www.live-stream.tv/online/fernsehen/deutsch/zdf.html)

Polls close in 40 minutes.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 11:50:07 am
ARD-guy is presenting some of the exit poll data and the numbers suggest that the AfD might not do that well in the Western states, but could shock in Sachsen-Anhalt.

In the 2 Western states, ~60% are happy with the current conditions in the state.

In Sachsen-Anhalt, it's the exact opposite with over 60% saying the current conditions are troubling.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 11:56:36 am
"I approve of Merkel's refugee policy."

43% BW
43% RP
29% SA


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 11:58:16 am
Exit polls in 2 minutes.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 12:06:30 pm
Yeah, AfD not as strong as expected in the West (11-13%), but at 23% in Sachsen-Anhalt.

Greens to win Baden-Württemberg.

SPD on track to win Rheinland-Pfalz.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 12:12:21 pm
Note: These are just exit polls.

A first projection with already some counted precincts will be out in ca. 30 minutes.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on March 13, 2016, 12:12:52 pm
BaWü
(Image Link)
Rheinland-Pfaltz
(Image Link)
Sachsen-Anhalt
(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Donnie on March 13, 2016, 12:15:34 pm
Merkel is finished. According to this results i see the CDU/CSU at ca. 30%
nationwide.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: RodPresident on March 13, 2016, 12:17:09 pm
Who are the Others in SA? FW, NDP?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2016, 12:25:12 pm
So no majority for Green-SPD in BW and o majority for CDU-SPD in SA.   In BW I guess it can be CDU-SPD-FDP  but not sure SPD will go for that.  In SA it will have to be CDU-SPD-FDP or CDU-SPD-Green.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on March 13, 2016, 12:26:17 pm
CDU leader in BaWü: Bad result, but no SPD-Green majority anymore. We stand for a different kind of politics, will talk with all parties except AfD to form a coalition.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2016, 12:29:04 pm
It is pretty funny now that even CDU-SPD grand alliance can no longer get to a majority in many states.  One literally will have to get CDU-SDP-FDP grand alliance to get a majority.  And think before the 1980s these 3 parties together pretty much had 100% of the seats out there. 


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 12:30:11 pm
According to the MDR (which uses the ARD projections), it's ca. 22-23% AfD and 2-3% NPD in Sachsen-Anhalt.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on March 13, 2016, 12:33:56 pm
(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on March 13, 2016, 12:36:22 pm
(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 12:36:45 pm
Results as they come in:

BW

http://www.statistik.baden-wuerttemberg.de/Landtagswahl

RP

http://www.wahlen.rlp.de/ltw/wahlen/2016/index.html

SA

https://www.statistik.sachsen-anhalt.de/wahlen/lt16/fms/fms21113.html


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2016, 12:39:16 pm
In SA I assume there might be some overhang seats for CDU.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 12:40:16 pm
In the new ARD projection for BW, the AfD just went from 12.5 to 13.1


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on March 13, 2016, 12:42:49 pm
In the new ARD projection for BW, the AfD just went from 12.5 to 13.1
... and now above the SPD.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2016, 12:42:58 pm
Merkel is finished. According to this results i see the CDU/CSU at ca. 30%
nationwide.

Yes,  but is this not an even worse news for the center-left.  The Center-left vote share dropped across the board, losing them to AfD of course.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2016, 12:43:47 pm
In the new ARD projection for BW, the AfD just went from 12.5 to 13.1
... and now above the SPD.

Wow.  SPD in 4th place in two states.  I thought I never see the day.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on March 13, 2016, 12:47:11 pm
FDP and Greens in ST right on 5%.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Hifly on March 13, 2016, 12:47:26 pm
LOL SPD


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on March 13, 2016, 12:48:35 pm
Baden-Württemberg

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on March 13, 2016, 12:49:37 pm
Haha: Julia Klöckner (CDU, Rheinland-Pfaltz): "one of our two goals, becoming the largest party, has not been reached, but the other one, making Red-Green lose its majority, has been reached".

This is in spite of, not because of the CDU's result...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Donnie on March 13, 2016, 12:49:42 pm
 13.84 % reporting in RLP:

GRUNE at just 4.3%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2016, 12:50:15 pm

If both does not make it then CDU-SPD will have a majority.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2016, 12:50:51 pm
Haha: Julia Klöckner (CDU, Rheinland-Pfaltz): "one of our two goals, becoming the largest party, has not been reached, but the other one, making Red-Green lose its majority, has been reached".

This is in spite of, not because of the CDU's result...

Yes, the root cause of both is the same: AfD.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on March 13, 2016, 12:51:03 pm
RLP

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on March 13, 2016, 12:51:26 pm
Sigmar Gabriel clutching his pearls over the Sachsen-Anhalt result.

Haha: Julia Klöckner (CDU, Rheinland-Pfaltz): "one of our two goals, becoming the largest party, has not been reached, but the other one, making Red-Green lose its majority, has been reached".

This is in spite of, not because of the CDU's result...

Yes, the root cause of both is the same: AfD.
Exactly.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 12:53:21 pm
Damn ... Gov. Kretschmann (Greens) has some stratospheric approval ratings:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Donnie on March 13, 2016, 12:54:23 pm
RLP 18.3 in:

SPD           CDU           GRÜNE   FDP       LINKE       AfD         Sonstige
36,1%   33,8%      4,3%       6,1%         2,5%      12,1%   5,0%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on March 13, 2016, 12:55:14 pm
ARD: "To understand the AfD result in all states, look at this"
Question 1: Are you afraid the influence of Islam will become too strong?
Question 2: Are you afraid crime in Germany will increase?
(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 12:56:22 pm
Gov. Dreyer (SPD) beats Klöckner by 20% in the direct vote for Governor:

(Image Link)

78% approve of the job she's doing:

(Image Link)

I have really underestimated the "Governor-effect" in RP. This helped the SPD win additional ground, while the SPD in the other states crashed today.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Cassius on March 13, 2016, 12:57:38 pm
On a completely unrelated note (this has always puzzled me) why do some European countries place a comma in place of a point when listing percentages?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on March 13, 2016, 01:00:26 pm
AfD to 14.9% in BaWü, SPD at 12.8%.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 01:00:39 pm
Gov. Kretschmann had a huge pull-effect in BW.

Half of today's Green voters only voted Green because of Kretschmann.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on March 13, 2016, 01:01:04 pm
On a completely unrelated note (this has always puzzled me) why do some European countries place a comma in place of a point when listing percentages?
because they (we) don't use English... these rules differ in every language.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 01:02:43 pm
With the AfD approaching 15% in BW, the state results are now much more in line with my prediction ... :)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 01:03:56 pm
Merkel's coalition "only" lost 22-23% today in population-rich BW. No need to worry ... :P

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2016, 01:05:36 pm
Gov. Kretschmann had a huge pull-effect in BW.

Half of today's Green voters only voted Green because of Kretschmann.

I am surprised the Green vote held up so well.  Many Green voters can legitimately claim that  Kretschmann is Green-in-name-only.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on March 13, 2016, 01:07:57 pm
Merkel's coalition "only" lost 22-23% today in population-rich BW. No need to worry ... :P
Wir schaffen das :3


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 01:12:14 pm
LOL, from the Sachsen-Anhalt exit poll:

(Image Link)

"I'm relieved that now only few refugees are coming to Germany anymore."

"The number of refugees should be reduced on a continuing basis."

"Mainstream parties are not taking seriously the concerns of citizens on the refugee topic."

"Angela Merkel has made a huge mistake with her refugee policy."

...

"More is done for refugees/immigrants rather than for the native population."

(notice how Left-party voters are 2nd to the AfD on this question)

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Classic Conservative on March 13, 2016, 01:16:57 pm
Is there a link to the results in English somewhere???


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on March 13, 2016, 01:19:46 pm
AfD rising in RLP as well:

(Image Link)

I suppose the exit polls may have fallen victim to a "shy AfD" effect.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 01:20:58 pm
AfD tops 24% in Sachsen-Anhalt, NPD is around 3%.

AfD is first there among voters under 30, and just 2 points behind the CDU in the age group 30-60.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2016, 01:21:03 pm
The result in SA is ultra-bad news for Linke where AfD might end up displacing it as the main protest party, especially in its Eastern Germany base.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 01:22:57 pm
The result in SA is ultra-bad news for Linke where AfD might end up displacing it as the main protest party, especially in its Eastern Germany base.

There are also indicators that many former Left voters voted AfD today ...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 01:25:01 pm
I suppose the exit polls may have fallen victim to a "shy AfD" effect.

Definitely.

Which is funny, because in Austria's state elections last year the "exit polls" overestimated the FPÖ by about 5% in Vienna and 2% in Upper Austria.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 01:27:01 pm
New ARD projection:

Sachsen-Anhalt

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2016, 01:27:05 pm
The result in SA is ultra-bad news for Linke where AfD might end up displacing it as the main protest party, especially in its Eastern Germany base.

There are also indicators that many former Left voters voted AfD today ...

It seems to me that AfD can only get such a result today in SA only if a bunch of Linke voters swung over to AfD, especially with NPD at 3% itself.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on March 13, 2016, 01:28:21 pm
Is there a link to the results in English somewhere???
You should be able to figure this (http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/landtagswahlen-ergebnisse) out, I guess.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2016, 01:30:07 pm
Is there a link to the results in English somewhere???
You should be able to figure this (http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/landtagswahlen-ergebnisse) out, I guess.

Yeah,  google translate should handle the rest.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2016, 01:31:55 pm
Oh no.  FDP is now projected to be right below 5% at SA.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 01:34:30 pm
Rheinland-Pfalz

3173/4824 precincts counted

36.2% SPD
31.8% CDU
13.0% AfD
  6.1% FDP
  4.9% Greens
  2.7% Left
  5.2% Others


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2016, 01:37:34 pm
What did the exit polls have for RLP in terms of vote transfers.  On paper it seems like Green->AfD but that seems unlikely and it is much more likely it was Green->SPD and SPD->AfD.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Lotuslander on March 13, 2016, 01:37:46 pm
If this, hypothetically speaking, was the final result in SA, I can't see how a willing coalition could be formed.



Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on March 13, 2016, 01:39:02 pm
CDU, SPD and the Greens would have a majority of seats, apparently.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 01:39:47 pm
Sachsen-Anhalt, actual count, 1007/2494 precincts in:

(Image Link)

AfD gets up to 30% in the rural areas, and 15-20% in Magdeburg.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2016, 01:44:22 pm
AfD does extremely well in the Southern part of Sachsen-Anhalt, near Sachsen (getting 30-40% in the cities there):

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on March 13, 2016, 01:49:12 pm
Where do you get that from, Tender?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Helsinkian on March 13, 2016, 01:49:17 pm
What did the exit polls have for RLP in terms of vote transfers.  On paper it seems like Green->AfD but that seems unlikely and it is much more likely it was Green->SPD and SPD->AfD.

Exactly what I was thinking. It would be hard to believe that there are many Green -> AfD voters (maybe a few pure protest voters who don't think much about ideologies).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2016, 02:00:44 pm
LOL. Take a look at Pforzheim...

http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article153152717/Ergebnisse-aller-Wahlkreise-in-Baden-Wuerttemberg.html

Does not Pforzheim have an unusual number of unemployed and refugees? Seems like a good combination for the AfD vote.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2016, 02:05:15 pm
I suppose the exit polls may have fallen victim to a "shy AfD" effect.

Definitely.

Which is funny, because in Austria's state elections last year the "exit polls" overestimated the FPÖ by about 5% in Vienna and 2% in Upper Austria.

Looking at the exit polls and the projected results it seems that the "Shy AfD" voter is someone that tells the exit pollster that he/she will vote CDU but really voted for AfD.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Hifly on March 13, 2016, 02:12:18 pm
The SPD have lost their only district in BW (Mannheim I) to AfD.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on March 13, 2016, 02:13:55 pm
LOL. Take a look at Pforzheim...

http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article153152717/Ergebnisse-aller-Wahlkreise-in-Baden-Wuerttemberg.html

Does not Pforzheim have an unusual number of unemployed and refugees? Seems like a good combination for the AfD vote.
Pforzheim has a high percentage of ethnic Germans from Eastern Europe, too. [Edit: Typo]


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: rob in cal on March 13, 2016, 02:20:05 pm
    Some  new developments in German political history today.  First time since the war that a party to the right of the CDU wins seats in three landtags at the same time.  First time since the war that a party to the right of the CDU is the second biggest in a German landtag.  Huge victory for political diversity today.  


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 13, 2016, 02:23:55 pm
BaWü has the weirdest state-level politics right now...


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DL on March 13, 2016, 02:25:57 pm
Seems to me that AfD poses the same sort of problem that Linke poses for the SPD. Are we moving towards an Austrian style situation in Germany where the only possible government is going to be never-ending "grand coalitions" between the CDU and SPD??


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on March 13, 2016, 02:26:42 pm
   Some  new developments in German political history today.  First time since the war that a party to the right of the CDU wins seats in three landtags at the same time.  First time since the war that a party to the right of the CDU is the second biggest in a German landtag.  Huge victory for political diversity today.  

+ first time that the SPD comes in fourth in statewide elections (I assume).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 13, 2016, 02:30:28 pm
Would suggest that its kind of a bit early in the day to drawn grand predictions of the future.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: rob in cal on March 13, 2016, 02:32:57 pm
    SA is even more interesting with all the other wasted votes going to the NPD.  The final combined votes going for parties to the right of the CDU is going to be very high.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on March 13, 2016, 02:34:55 pm
Seems to me that AfD poses the same sort of problem that Linke poses for the SPD. Are we moving towards an Austrian style situation in Germany where the only possible government is going to be never-ending "grand coalitions" between the CDU and SPD??
Yes, and the situation in Germany is "worse" (in the sense that moderate hero centrist coalitions will be more inevitable), because the FPÖ is clearly more coalitionable than AfD. Also, the presence of Die Linke in the German party system, which is also rather uncoalitionable, means that the basis for a potential non-AfD coalition is smaller than the basis for a potential non-FPÖ coalition in Austria.

Eventually the CDU will have to move to the right in order to prevent more losses, but it might already be too late for them to push AfD away entirely, and by moving to the right (a process which we have seen in many countries already) it increases the potential for the "unthinkable" (actually not so unthinkable in the long run) to happen: government cooperation with AfD. It obviously depends on the circumstances, but this is the trajectory we have seen in so many places already, and I would not be surprise if one day this will become reality in Germany too.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on March 13, 2016, 02:35:26 pm
The Greens actually lost 0.1% in their absolute stronghold of Stuttgart I. Green gains and CDU losses are bigger in the districts that are close to the average, resulting in close Green wins in many districts.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on March 13, 2016, 02:36:04 pm
this is like weimar without a left. f()ck everything.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 13, 2016, 02:46:41 pm
According to this results i see the CDU/CSU at ca. 30%
nationwide.

German federal elections are most definitely not applied state elections so you can't really do that.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: rob in cal on March 13, 2016, 02:49:13 pm
  I would argue that on the existential issues of immigration  and the  ethinic de-Germanization of Germany the forces in favor of that , which I would argue are on the left, are doing quite well, if one looks at the long term trend.  Today certainly amounts to a reset of sorts, but its not as if the AFD and its allies has some new majority.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on March 13, 2016, 03:14:43 pm
Somewhere Bernd Lucke is shedding a tear or two...

(Image Link)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on March 13, 2016, 03:15:12 pm
Somewhere Bernd Lucke is shedding a tear or two...

(Image Link)
Did ALFA even contest? Lmao


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2016, 03:19:20 pm
I think ALFA contested by was down there at around 1%


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: rob in cal on March 13, 2016, 03:23:45 pm
   I wonder if the extent of the AFD victories and CDU losses will impact Merkel.  Its not as if these losses were unexpected, though the size is a bit bigger than expected.  
   Concerning what I term ethnic de-Germanization, I'm referring to the situation where in many German cities, the % of schoolchildren whose parents or grandparents are from what is termed a "migration background" is quite high and growing higher.  


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2016, 03:31:56 pm
I wonder if these results will make Frauke Petry more well known outside of Germany at the level of how well Marine Le Pen is known outside France.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: rob in cal on March 13, 2016, 04:01:23 pm
    Also, the fate of the Greens is intriguing.  1st place in BW, barely passing the 5% threshold in RP and SA.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on March 13, 2016, 04:19:17 pm
[...]
   Concerning what I term ethnic de-Germanization, I'm referring to the situation where in many German cities, the % of schoolchildren whose parents or grandparents are from what is termed a "migration background" is quite high and growing higher.  
That's right, but these "migration background" numbers are somehow inflated. Does it count as ethnic de-Germanization when children have an Austrian parent or a half-Italian parent or a Transsylvanian Saxon parent? It's only natural that the % of children from a "migration background" is growing higher with his definition. (And yes, I do know that Muslims in Germany on average have higher birthrates, but this is only part of the picture.)


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: DavidB. on March 13, 2016, 04:47:25 pm
AfD keeps climbing in ST (24.4% now, wow) and BaWü (15.1%). FDP now under the threshold in ST (4.8%).


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on March 13, 2016, 04:53:42 pm
Most important net voter migrations in Baden-Württemberg (preliminary estimates according to ARD infratest dimap exit polls, categories being CDU, Greens, SPD, FDP, Left, AfD, others, none):

207k from none to AfD
188k from CDU to AfD
160k from SPD to Greens
151k from others to AfD
133k from none to Greens
109k from CDU to Greens
88k from SPD to AfD
86k from CDU to FDP
68k from Greens to AfD
61k from SPD to none.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on March 13, 2016, 04:58:07 pm
Rheinland-Pfalz:

93k from Greens to SPD
77k from none to AfD
66k from none to SPD
65k from none to CDU
46k from CDU to AfD
43k from others to AfD
34k from SPD to AfD
22k from none to FDP
21k from Greens to CDU.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: palandio on March 13, 2016, 05:04:23 pm
Sachsen-Anhalt:

104k from none to AfD
52k from others to AfD
42k from none to CDU
38k from CDU to AfD
33k from none to others
29k from Left to AfD
22k from SPD to CDU
21k from SPD to AfD.


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on March 13, 2016, 05:13:10 pm
I mean, this looks very bad (or good, if you're inclined that way) but isn't really indicative of future elections. Remember the Pirate phenomena? Remember when people started to confidently assume the Green surge would last?


Title: Re: German Elections & Politics
Post by: Beezer on March 13, 2016, 05:16:42 pm
Of course some of the AfD's support may - or will - dissipate if the migrant crisis disappears from the headlines. I'd argue though that what sets its rise apart from the Pirate Party surge is that the AfD fills a genuine void within the party system, as illustrated by the success of similar parties across Europe. There are plenty of voters who feel that they lack a politi