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Election Archive => 2014 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on October 13, 2013, 11:17:09 am



Title: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: Tender Branson on October 13, 2013, 11:17:09 am
New Poll: Arkansas Senator by Hendrix College/Talk Business on 2013-10-08 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5220131008118)

Summary: D: 42%, R: 41%, U: 17%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://talkbusiness.net/2013/10/poll-pryor-cotton-in-tight-race-already)


Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: Tender Branson on October 14, 2013, 08:25:15 am
It seems AR will have 2 interesting races next year ... :)


Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on October 14, 2013, 09:10:24 am
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Sen. Mark Pryor is doing?

34% Approve
48% Disapprove
18% Don’t Know

This poll is strange. With this approval, Cotton should lead by double digits.


Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 14, 2013, 09:39:02 am
Cotton isn't as well-known, that's why he starts at the baseline. Once he becomes familiar to people outside his district the numbers will move, as Harry Enten said back in August.


Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on October 14, 2013, 10:53:54 am
Cotton isn't as well-known, that's why he starts at the baseline. Once he becomes familiar to people outside his district the numbers will move, as Harry Enten said back in August.

Yes, I don't think it will stay a toss up. Or Cotton will take a lead or Pryor will successfully tie him with the most extremist republicans (Farm Bill, student loans,...)


Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: BlondeArtisit on October 14, 2013, 11:21:30 am
republican +1. no way an incumbent can win with this base support.


Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on October 14, 2013, 11:22:34 am
Some people always seem to underestimate Pryor and overestimate Cotton. You shouldn't.


Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: PolitiJunkie on October 14, 2013, 11:52:47 am
Anyone want to give the respective percentages of the odds of each of these things happening?

Pryor & Ross Win:
Pryor & Hutchison Win:
Cotton & Ross Win:
Cotton & Hutchison Win:


Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 14, 2013, 12:58:04 pm
I'd say C/H followed by C/R, P/R, P/H. Partly because Cotton and Ross are stronger candidates than their rivals.


Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: PolitiJunkie on October 14, 2013, 01:03:23 pm
I'd say C/H followed by C/R, P/R, P/H. Partly because Cotton and Ross are stronger candidates than their rivals.

Interesting. I was going to say Cotton/Ross was the least likely. Wouldn't you say there is a better chance of Democrats holding the Senate seat than the governorship? Currently Pryor and Hutchison are leading, albeit by small margins.


Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: IceSpear on October 14, 2013, 02:03:12 pm
republican +1. no way an incumbent can win with this base support.

I'm pretty sure Reid had an even worse approval rating in 2010. Not that I think it's a comparable situation, I think Cotton will probably win comfortably, but it is possible.

Pryor's only hope is to try to sway those 18% "don't know" folks into voting for him, or hope they're just people who approve but are too embarrassed to say so since he's a Democrat.


Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 14, 2013, 03:29:31 pm
Statistical tie. Right now looks like a pure toss-up, but look at this...

Do you approve or disapprove of the job that President Barack Obama is doing?


34% Approve
62% Disapprove

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Sen. Mark Pryor is doing?

34% Approve
48% Disapprove

Who do you blame most for the federal government shutdown?


40% President Obama and the Democrats
35% Republicans in Congress
24% Both are equally to blame

Obama's approval is even worse than the 37% of the vote he got in Arkansas in 2012. And a 48-34 disapproval is horrible for an incumbent up for re-election. On top of that, a plurality of people blame the democrats and Obama for the shutdown! Republicans have a massive blame lead in the polls but not in red state Arkansas. This is amazing what were seeing here besides the original question. Also:

Anyone want to give the respective percentages of the odds of each of these things happening?

Pryor & Ross Win: 20%
Pryor & Hutchison Win: 30%
Cotton & Ross Win: 10%
Cotton & Hutchison Win: 40%


Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: Beat-‘Em-All Beto on October 14, 2013, 03:36:51 pm
Statistical tie. Right now looks like a pure toss-up, but look at this...

Do you approve or disapprove of the job that President Barack Obama is doing?


34% Approve
62% Disapprove

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Sen. Mark Pryor is doing?

34% Approve
48% Disapprove

Who do you blame most for the federal government shutdown?


40% President Obama and the Democrats
35% Republicans in Congress
24% Both are equally to blame

Obama's approval is even worse than the 37% of the vote he got in Arkansas in 2012. And a 48-34 disapproval is horrible for an incumbent up for re-election. On top of that, a plurality of people blame the democrats and Obama for the shutdown! Republicans have a massive blame lead in the polls but not in red state Arkansas. This is amazing what were seeing here besides the original question. Also:

Really, WTF is wrong with Arkansas? How does a plurality blame the Democrats? Do they hate a black guy in the Oval Office that much?


Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: Scott on October 14, 2013, 03:43:02 pm
Statistical tie. Right now looks like a pure toss-up, but look at this...

Do you approve or disapprove of the job that President Barack Obama is doing?


34% Approve
62% Disapprove

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Sen. Mark Pryor is doing?

34% Approve
48% Disapprove

Who do you blame most for the federal government shutdown?


40% President Obama and the Democrats
35% Republicans in Congress
24% Both are equally to blame

Obama's approval is even worse than the 37% of the vote he got in Arkansas in 2012. And a 48-34 disapproval is horrible for an incumbent up for re-election. On top of that, a plurality of people blame the democrats and Obama for the shutdown! Republicans have a massive blame lead in the polls but not in red state Arkansas. This is amazing what were seeing here besides the original question. Also:

Really, WTF is wrong with Arkansas? How does a plurality blame the Democrats? Do they hate a black guy in the Oval Office that much?

Angry Hillary supporters.


Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: JerryArkansas on October 14, 2013, 03:45:10 pm
Statistical tie. Right now looks like a pure toss-up, but look at this...

Do you approve or disapprove of the job that President Barack Obama is doing?


34% Approve
62% Disapprove

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Sen. Mark Pryor is doing?

34% Approve
48% Disapprove

Who do you blame most for the federal government shutdown?


40% President Obama and the Democrats
35% Republicans in Congress
24% Both are equally to blame

Obama's approval is even worse than the 37% of the vote he got in Arkansas in 2012. And a 48-34 disapproval is horrible for an incumbent up for re-election. On top of that, a plurality of people blame the democrats and Obama for the shutdown! Republicans have a massive blame lead in the polls but not in red state Arkansas. This is amazing what were seeing here besides the original question. Also:

Really, WTF is wrong with Arkansas? How does a plurality blame the Democrats? Do they hate a black guy in the Oval Office that much?

Angry Hillary supporters.
That's it right there.  People are pissed that Hillary lost so they have taken it out on the party.


Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 14, 2013, 04:33:57 pm
To answer PJ, I think Ross has a better chance than Pryor, though not by much for reasons I've stated before in the gubernatorial thread.


Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: Miles on October 14, 2013, 07:02:51 pm
I thought this was interesting, but it makes sense:

Quote
Pryor’s strongest showing is with the oldest group of voters; those 65 and older support the Democrat by 46%-41%, indicating that the Pryor name may still have some potency with a high turnout group.


Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 14, 2013, 07:23:47 pm
That's why Cotton's hammering away at the Pryor brand with pointed references to the Senator not putting Arkansas first. Surprised that Pryor hasn't responded to a frontal assault on the brand b) tried Mediscare. Farm bills and student loans are all he's attacked Cotton for on policy, besides being extremely extreme and all that jazz.


Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: Beat-‘Em-All Beto on October 15, 2013, 05:02:34 am
That's why Cotton's hammering away at the Pryor brand with pointed references to the Senator not putting Arkansas first. Surprised that Pryor hasn't responded to a frontal assault on the brand b) tried Mediscare. Farm bills and student loans are all he's attacked Cotton for on policy, besides being extremely extreme and all that jazz.
I'm surprised Pryor hasn't attacked Cotton for not putting Arkansas first. The man goes to Congress, shuts down the Government, and announces he's running for another office all in his 10 months in Washington.


Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on October 15, 2013, 12:11:13 pm
I have the feeling Pryor will survive. Cotton is too far on the right, even for Arkansas, not sure they would appreciate if farm bill and student loans would be cut.

EDIT: And Cotton is the typical guy to make an Akin comment!


Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 15, 2013, 12:44:56 pm
Crossposted from the AR thread: Both men raised $1 million this Q, but Pryor's COH is 4.4-1.8. Not that I think huge # are important in such a cheap media state. Race won't really get underway till next spring IMO. Till then all fundraising and air wars.


Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: PolitiJunkie on October 15, 2013, 12:45:01 pm
That's why Cotton's hammering away at the Pryor brand with pointed references to the Senator not putting Arkansas first. Surprised that Pryor hasn't responded to a frontal assault on the brand b) tried Mediscare. Farm bills and student loans are all he's attacked Cotton for on policy, besides being extremely extreme and all that jazz.
I'm surprised Pryor hasn't attacked Cotton for not putting Arkansas first. The man goes to Congress, shuts down the Government, and announces he's running for another office all in his 10 months in Washington.

I have the feeling Pryor will survive. Cotton is too far on the right, even for Arkansas, not sure they would appreciate if farm bill and student loans would be cut.

EDIT: And Cotton is the typical guy to make an Akin comment!

These


Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 15, 2013, 12:48:49 pm
Pryor seems to prefer extremely extreme to hopscotch. I don't know where the Akin thing comes from.


Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on October 15, 2013, 01:43:36 pm
Pryor seems to prefer extremely extreme to hopscotch. I don't know where the Akin thing comes from.

Have you seen what he said about women or about black? I agree it's not an akin comment, but it just shows he could easily say an akin comment!



Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: IceSpear on October 16, 2013, 12:16:08 am
I have the feeling Pryor will survive. Cotton is too far on the right, even for Arkansas, not sure they would appreciate if farm bill and student loans would be cut.

EDIT: And Cotton is the typical guy to make an Akin comment!

There's no such thing as "too far right for Arkansas" while Obama is president.


Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Tight race in Arkansas
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on October 16, 2013, 05:39:45 am
I have the feeling Pryor will survive. Cotton is too far on the right, even for Arkansas, not sure they would appreciate if farm bill and student loans would be cut.

EDIT: And Cotton is the typical guy to make an Akin comment!

There's no such thing as "too far right for Arkansas" while Obama is president.

Arkansas is a social conservative state, not a far right fiscally conservative state.
And Pryor isn't black, so!