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Election Archive => 2014 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Miles on October 15, 2013, 03:38:23 pm



Title: WV-Harper(R): Capito looking good in primary, general
Post by: Miles on October 15, 2013, 03:38:23 pm
Report. (http://images.politico.com/global/2013/10/14/westvirginia.html)

Capito- 51%
Tennant- 34%

Capito leads McGeehan 77-7 in the primary.

Capito's favorables are 50/26. Tennant is also popular, at 39/27, though Obama's approval is at 25/65.

This pretty much confirms PPP's poll.


Title: Re: WV-Harper(R): Capito looking good in primary, general
Post by: Scott on October 15, 2013, 03:40:45 pm
Tennant still has to work on her name recognition, it seems.  I don't expect her to win, but I think she can get it to a 5-10 point race.


Title: Re: WV-Harper(R): Capito looking good in primary, general
Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 15, 2013, 05:16:33 pm
That's an even bigger lead than I expected. Statistics seem pretty accurate, other than the "12% black" typo. Does this race deserve a "Likely R" rating? Or still Lean R?


Title: Re: WV-Harper(R): Capito looking good in primary, general
Post by: publicunofficial on October 15, 2013, 06:16:27 pm
That's an even bigger lead than I expected. Statistics seem pretty accurate, other than the "12% black" typo. Does this race deserve a "Likely R" rating? Or still Lean R?

Sabato and I think Rothenberg have it as Lean R, no idea what Cook has it as.

Tennant is the underdog, but short of cloning Joe Manchin she's the best candidate the Dems could have landed; and this race could definitely close up if Tennant gets her name recognition up and/or the House GOP's unpopularity begins to affect Capito.


Title: Re: WV-Harper(R): Capito looking good in primary, general
Post by: PolitiJunkie on October 15, 2013, 06:28:44 pm
Interesting that Generic R leads Generic D by 12, but Capito leads Tennant by 17. Just shows that Tennant's name recognition is low. This race is far from gone. This poll is also funded by Karl Rove.


Title: Re: WV-Harper(R): Capito looking good in primary, general
Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 15, 2013, 06:30:16 pm
That's an even bigger lead than I expected. Statistics seem pretty accurate, other than the "12% black" typo. Does this race deserve a "Likely R" rating? Or still Lean R?

Sabato and I think Rothenberg have it as Lean R, no idea what Cook has it as.

Tennant is the underdog, but short of cloning Joe Manchin she's the best candidate the Dems could have landed; and this race could definitely close up if Tennant gets her name recognition up and/or the House GOP's unpopularity begins to affect Capito.

That could definitely happen. Her name recognition on the other hand is close to Capito's (about 35% vs. 25% unknown). Its actually quite sad that the best democratic candidate in West Virginia out of all places is trailing a republican by 17 points. If Tennant loses by more than 10 points I think West Virginia will have officially hit its turning point for ANY democrat at the federal level (Besides Manchin, who I think will be good as long as he keeps doing what he's doing). WV-3 will be interesting to watch next year as well as its in the heart of coal country, but I think that seat is fine until Rahall retires.