Talk Elections

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/KentuckySenatePollOctober2013.pdf

Grimes 45
McConnell 43

by 2.

At probably the height of McConnell's unpopularity a year before the election, his opponent just barely leads.

McConnell will be easily re-elected.

Now that you know Mitch McConnell supported
the government shutdown, I’ll ask you one
more time: If the election for US Senate next
year were today, would you vote for Democrat
Alison Lundergan Grimes or Republican Mitch
McConnell?
Alison Lundergan Grimes ............................... 47%
Mitch McConnell ............................................. 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

The shutdown has scrambled the senate races as where the House is still very much red.  I think we win either ARK or MnT and add either GA or KY.

:O

So even after that "push," he's only down by two.

Well, this is a tight race but Mcconnell will probably win!

Yes, Kentucky at least has a plurality of democrats. But, many of those democrats are conservative and at least 20% of them are now republican voters. Also independents usually go heavily for republicans. This helps explain its redness. Same thing in West Virginia except West Virginia has gotten much worse (like 30% of democrats voting republican now)

I'm not too surprised by the overall result of this poll, but the internals are bunk gas. It actually shows the GOP and the Tea Party doing the best among the youngest voters, and the worst among the oldest voters. Everyone knows that's crap.

In Kentucky? It kind of makes sense.

Isn't the Tea Party mostly over 60?

Let's not make predictions about this race. This is going to be close.

I agree about this, Grimes is going to have a ton of money to compete.

Agreed. Gun to my head, I'd say Grimes, but honestly it's a pure toss-up and could go either way.

We all know who will actually win the Kentucky Senate race...

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Cornyn should be the next GOP senate leader.

McConnell is in trouble. When the fundraising numbers came out, they made a point to attack Grimes for not raising 7 million, which is a goal that she supposedly set, but there is zero evidence that such a goal was ever set. Lame attacks like that indicate that Republican internals show a close race too.

Also Grimes released that Mellman (the guy who nailed Reid's re-election victory when everyone else was showing a tie or Angle lead) internal showing her up 2% a month or so ago than McConnell's campaign never replied to. This race is definitely competitive and close.

Isn't it a prediction to say that it will be close? :P

A politician from one party or the other may or may not ultimately win or lose this race.

Keep in mind that the battle for keeping the government open isn't really over.  I fully expect the country to be in a similar position when it's time for another fight, which is early next year.  If the government shuts down again, McConnell will have a lot more to worry about than he does now.

I noticed that young voters support McConnell 49-43%.  Just what in the hell is it about Mitch McConnell that young voters find appealing?

I think PPP got the rows mixed up in the age breakdown. The age breakdown is the exact opposite of what anyone would expect.

No way that a 71-year-old McConnell is doing better against a 34-year-old Grimes in the youngest age group.

He was also down by 2 before the push, just with more undecideds:

Q1 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes and
Republican Mitch McConnell, who would you
vote for?

Alison Lundergan Grimes ............................... 45%
Mitch McConnell ............................................. 43%
Not sure ........................................................ 12%

The fact that Grimes can't get a shutdown bump says a lot though IMO.

PPP's age crosstabs tend to be funky a lot of the time. I wouldn't put much stock in them.

Seems like they had a poll in a different election recently that actually had women voting much more Republican than men. Somehow I'm skeptical of that.

yes that is wrong grimes will lose because her attempts to import the blacks from borderaing illinois will be leaked and matt bevin will defeat rino mccnnell in he primary, this poll is also bad abecause woemn vote less republican beacuse some of them want to play free with their womb then relaize mistakes i think Bevin will defeat Grimes 57-42 with 62% of mens and and 52% of women.

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