Talk Elections

Alright, here's the new Italy fad! Discuss Berlusconi's antics, the PD's uselessness and Grillo's trolling here. ;)

If you want a comment from me on the past few sequences, I'll just say this: things could be about to get better, but this is Italy, so let's stay cautious.

Center-right parties including former Italian Premier Berlusconi’s PDL lead over center-left parties including Premier Letta’s PD narrows to 1.7 pp versus 2.5 pps last week, according to poll by SWG gauging voting intentions.

Center-right bloc at 34.8% vs 35.4% last week
Center-left bloc at 33.1% vs 32.9% last week
Grillo’s Five Star Movement at 21.2% vs 20% last week

It is interesting that this list crisis has halted Grillo's decline and now he is moving up in the polls. 

Basilicata regional elections (17-18 November 2013)

List and candidates.

Marcello Pittella

Democratic Party
President's List
Democratic Center (with Popular United)
Realtà Italia
Socialist Party
Italy of Values

Tito Di Maggio (Senator of Civic Choice, in contrast with Mario Monti)

People of Freedom
Union of the Center
Moderates in Revolution
Officina Basilicata (with Civic Choice, Brothers of Italy, Great South)

Piernicola Pedicini

Movement 5 Stars

Maria Murante

Basilicata 2.0 (with Left Ecology and Freedom)

Elisabetta Zamparutti

The Rose in her Hand (Radicals)

Rocco Tauro

The Right and Tricolor Flame

Florenzo Doino

Communist Party of Workers

Franco Grillo

Regionali 2013

and a candidate for "Fare for the Basilicata"

Berlusconi banned from parliament for 2 years, dunno if this thing can also be appealed. (http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/world/silvio-berlusconi-handed-two-year-ban-from-parliament/story-fni0xs63-1226743185273?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+dailytelegraphworldnewsndm+%28Daily+Telegraph+%7C+World+News%29)

Yesterday the Bureau of PDL.

The decisions:
- Acceleration of the passage from PDL to Forza Italia
- Resetting of fillers (including Alfano)

Trento provincial elections


Rossi (PD-PATT-UPT-Landis-Greens-Socialists) 58.12%
Masna (local lists) 19.28%
Fugatti (Lega) 6.59%
De Gasperi (5 Stars) 5.72%
Bezzi (Forza Trentino) 4.27%
Arisi (SEL) 1.78%
De Eccher (Brothers of Italy) 1.54%
Casagranda (Communists) 1.14%
then 3 candidates below 1%

Council

PD 22.07%, 9 seats
PATT (Autonomists) 17.55%, 7 seats
UPT (centrist of Center-Left coalition) 13.33%, 5 seats
Ladins 1.14%, 1 seat
rest of center-left coalition 0 seat

Progetto Trentino 9.03%, 4 seats
Civica Trentono 3.7%, 1 seat
Amministrare Trentino 2.1%, 1 seat
+ Masna
no seats for other lists of his coalition

Lega 6.22%, 1 seat (+ Fugatti)

5 Stars 5.84%, 1 seat (+ De Gasperi)

Forza Trentino 4.42%, 0 seat (but Bezzi elected)

no representation for other lists and candidates

Is the 5 Stelle candidate De Gasperi related to Alcide De Gasperi ? If that's the case, poor Alcide must be turning over in his grave...

In a 7-6 vote, a Senate panel voted that the vote to throw out Berlusconi from the Senate must be held openly, and not by secret ballot.

Excellent.

:)

Is Monti still around? Or is his party now a shipwreck?

He left his own party, which is floundering. Of course PD is in the middle of their leadership process, which won't finish till mid-December.

Berlusconi if possible.

The decisive vote is of Linda Lanzillotta (Civic Choice).

The votes of the Democratic Party's circles (not the primary).
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Source: Sondaggi Bidimedia

Please explain what "circles" are. Are they the party members who're now voting for those heading to the convention?

I wish we could have kept the old thread going!

Who is this Cuperlo? Could Renzi really be stopped again?

According to Wiki, the social democratic establishment candidate. Renzi's main left opponent, apparently. An open primary should help Renzi.

Speaking of the primary, no worries because he's dominating (http://www.europaquotidiano.it/2013/11/11/primarie-pd-renzi-vola-al-72-5-testa-a-testa-cuperlo-civati-per-il-secondo-posto/). 73% in the latest poll. ;D Good to see PD has finally learned their lesson.

The corrupt establishment leftists will have their say. This won't be a landslide.

True, particularly if it goes to the national party assembly. Though I'd expect him to win the primary outright. Still a month to go before the process is over.

This Civati guy seems like he could be the wildcard. He's young and is (or at least was) willing to team up with M5S to prevent the current coalition government. He's to Renzi's left so that should take some of the leftist vote from Cuperlo but is also anti establishment which could lure some Renzi/undecided folks, I'd imagine. Pitella seems irrelevant.

Cuperlo is D'Alema's handpicked candidate. He's probably not a bad guy himself, but he has zero charisma and would probably be completely useless.

Civati is by far the best choice: young and energetic like Renzi, but actually left-wing. But he seems to have no chance.

It's so sad. The leftists (particularly economic leftists) within the PD (Cuperlo, Fassina) are almost completely tied to the apparatchik wing, whose personification is D'Alema. D'Alema and Bersani have still this certain ideological post-communist flavor but on actual politics they are almost as centrist/third-wayist as Renzi.
The anti-apparatchik left-wing (Marino, Civati etc.) will likely remain in their 15% niche.

Altogether the situation looks like:
Big post-communist apparatchik center (D'Alema etc.)
+ centrists that have made their peace with Bersani (Letta, Franceschini)
+ pro-apparatchik Christian left (Bindi etc.)
+ left-wing, Young Turks (Cuperlo, Fassina, etc.)
vs.
Liberal right-wing (Renzi etc.)
+ Chritian conservatives (Fioroni etc.)
+ ex-social democrats (Fassino, Chiamparino, Veltroni, etc.)
+ social-democratic modernists (Serrachiani etc.)
vs.
Anti-establishment left-wing (Marino, Civati, etc.)

The problem is that you can't build a coalition around the post-communist apparatchik center without including parts of it. Particularly many nostalgic party members still vote for people that pray left-wing ideology and then do what the apparat wants. An open primary is a chance for Renzi because many voters will vote for a candidate they feel has majority appeal.

When is the final Berlusconi expulsion vote scheduled for?

November 27th.

It's official: PdL is gonna split.

Oh my God. Details?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24966934

That's over a third of his Senate caucus and more than 20% of his deputies, so I'd stick a fork in the centre-right for the foreseeable future since Alfano's sticking with the coalition. How long does PD want to keep the coalition going?

Alfano could be more trustful for PD establishment than members of own party. If a majority of PD caucus want, government can survive until 2018. Government could be ended if Renzi, after winning leadership, gets control of caucus and a poll advantadge that makes safe to go for country. Alfano will heir control of Monti coalition and he'll keep them until bitter end.

Silvio still looking to Alfano for help, urging his side to align with FI to defeat the left. Berlusconi even asked his supporters not to attack Alfano and Co. - http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/11/17/335053/berlusconi-seeks-to-form-new-alliance/ (http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/11/17/335053/berlusconi-seeks-to-form-new-alliance/)

The only thing that matters is that they will keep propping up the government no matter what (that's the whole reason behind the split), thus defusing any incentive PD had to avoid expelling Berlusconi from the Parliament.

Basilicata count very slow in reporting. Turnout collapsed from 62.8 to 47.6%

With 259 polling stations reported out of 681, Pittella (centre-left, brother of Pittella MEP running for the leadership) is far ahead with 60.79%. PDL candidate is at 21.43%, M5S at 10.85%, SEL at 4.69%.

PD provisional results among party members released by the party today

Renzi 46.7%
Cuperlo 38.4%
Civati 9.2%
Pittella 5.7%

So all 4 go to the convention and primary?

Good to see it is close amongst the party faithful. Need some excitement instead of a coronation! :D

Anything but a Renzi coronation.

No,Pittella won't go to the primary.

Anyhow a close result was expected in this vote;+8 Renzi is actually a great result.

Yeah, Renzi will win big. Sad to see Civati not doing any better, though.

Basilicata

Pittella (PD+Socialists+Democratic Centre+Italy of Values) 59.60%
Di Maggio (PDL+Civic Choice+UDC) 19.38%
Pedicini (5 Stars) 13.19%
Murante (SEL) 5.16%
everybody else below 1%

Lists

PD 24.83% (4 seats)
Pittella President 16.01% (3)
Socialists 7.47 (1)
Realtà Italia 5.92% (1)
Democratic Center 5.04 (1)
+ 2 seats for the Pittella's Coalition
....
PDL 12.27 (2)
Civic Choice 5.08 (1)
UDC 3.8 (1)
+ 1 seat for the coalition
...
5 Stars  8.97% (2)
....
SEL 5.16% (1)

Massive floods in Sardinia yesterday night and today. Already 18 deaths confirmed. As usual Italian disaster relief sucked big time.

I saw that it was officially a cyclone: six months worth of rain in a day. :(

Check out the map La Repubblica put together for the results from the "party circles" - http://www.repubblica.it/politica/2013/11/19/news/primarie_pd_il_voto_nei_circoli_regione_per_regione_mappa-71368260/ (http://www.repubblica.it/politica/2013/11/19/news/primarie_pd_il_voto_nei_circoli_regione_per_regione_mappa-71368260/)

Renzi did best in Campania (+25) while Cuperlo's strongest region was Molise (+29). Emilia-Romagna was the closest: Cuperlo by about one point. Cuperlo also took Sicily and Basilicata.

The list isn't Civic Choice but Brothers of Italy + Civic Choice + Great south.

The elect of this list is of Brothers of Italy.

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Coalition including former Premier Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party and new center right group formed by deputy premier Alfano at 37% vs 34.6% last week, according to poll by SWG of voting intentions.

Center-left including Premier Letta’s PD party at 32.9% vs 33.3% last week: SWG
Grillo’s Five-Star Movement at 19.8% vs 20.8%: SWG
Undecideds and abstentions 40% vs 41.5% last week: SWG

NOTE: Poll conducted Nov. 19-20 on 1,000 interviews

Why three significant figures?

For some reason, Italian pollsters seem to believe decimals are valuable information.

2006 and 2013 were quite close...

Yes, but, as both these elections showed, the pollsters' margin of error goes well beyond the single percentage point.

CD is in the lead for Tecnè (+5%), Swg (+4%), Ipr (+4%), Ispo (+3%), Euromedia (+2%), Emg (+1%) and Ipsos (+0,6%).
CS is in the lead for Ixè (+0,3%) and Datamedia (+0,7%).

True. If an election is close enough that decimals would be valuable information in polling then it's more than close enough for the polls to get the result wrong anyway.

At 17:00 PM (Italy Time) the vote for decay of Berlusconi.

Today is the day!

Berlusconi ousted. Il Giornale running a flash page on their site: "FINE DELLA LIBERTÀ" in several languages.

()

Congrats Italians. ;D Adult governance is back.

()

A communist revolution!!

Yesterday the debate with the candidates at secretary of PD.
Civati was the winner. Renzi undertone. Cuperlo poor.

The analysis of debate (in Italian) --> http://sondaggiproiezioni.blogspot.it/2013/11/primarie-pd-dibattito-su-sky-tg-24-29.html

I so wish Civati had a chance... The only one who had the guts to say that the Letta government is sh*t.

Decay?

That's how they call an expulsion from the parliament in Italy (decadenza).

How appropriate :D

You can't imagine how many jokes about this we have cracked in my family in the past couple months. ;D

(hint: my display name is one of them :P)

The Constitutional Court has rejected the "porcellum" (the current electoral system) in both the points put to the test of constitutionality: that the majority of the premium and the lack of preferences.

Oh sh**t, so on top of everything else a new electoral law is needed? If so, hopefully the French or German models in FPTP's guaranteed absence.

Others speak of a law proportional with the preferences...

What the CC did is effectively take us back to full-scale PR (with a small threshold, but still). Not exactly the kind of system Italy needs right now.

It's time to see if Renzi can actually force the government/parliament to do something serious about electoral reform, because otherwise we're screwed.

With this judgment into practice was abolished premium Majority in the House (the national prize, which entitled him to 340 parliamentarians) and the Senate (the regional prize of 55%). So we have the same electoral system for the House and Senate and this is not constitutional... ahahah....

Just registered to vote in the primaries. :)

The symbol of New Centre Right

()

For real ? How lame is that...

Oh, this electoral law decision should be fun.  :)  Please give us a system that people can at least partly understand!

As for the new symbol, yeah, it leaves a lot to be desired but at least it isn't another party that just threw the tricolor in there.

Are you supporting NCD, Phil?

Terrible logo for a terrible name.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=183537.0

Vote! :)

All the polls suggest Renzi should have an easy first ballot win.

In Lega news, Matteo Salvini (slimy, racist, populist, anti-euro hack) won the party's leadership election with 82%, crushing the Old Leader Bossi. If someone had predicted this just two years ago... :D

That should be excellent news ... for establishing the far-right EAF (European Alliance for Freedom) group next year.

Salvini has a good relationship with Strache and his FPÖ and invited Strache to the Lega Nord party convention in 1 week.

Question:

What's the LN polling right now ?

And what again is the threshold in the EU elections in Italy ?

Turnout at 12.00: 980.000 voters (great result)

The turnout at 12.00 should be of 1.100.000 voters.

Around 3-4%.


Not sure, I'll look it up when I've time.



Awesome! :D What do you think will be the final turnout?

Threshold for Euro elections is 4%

I went to vote to PD primary this afternoon and backed Civiti. I hope he can go above 15%

2,5 mln - 2,9 mln

:D *hughughug* :D

He will get 3 more votes from here, since I convinced all my family to vote for him. ;)

Wonderful! It's good to see so many people still haven't lost hope and are eager to make politics better. :)

First results (from Renzi's website)

Renzi 160.757 votes (70%)
Cuperlo 41.175 votes (18%)
Civati 28.556 votes (12%)

Renzi 339.334 - 70
Cuperlo 83.862 - 17%
Civati 61.989 - 13%

Where's he getting these numbers from?

From Renzi's website, but the Pd's website said:

30,2% reporting

Renzi 344.565 (68,4%)
Cuperlo 91.039 (18,1%)
Civati 67.833 (13,5%)

I knew I was forgetting something today!

So Renzi got a landslide. Yawn. Had no idea LN had a primary and that Bossi was running. What a great embarrassment for him.

Dominating. :D

   
37,2% reporting

Renzi 468.321 (68,6%)
Cuperlo 121.466 (17,8%)
Civati 92.645 (13,6%)

Most likely, yes.

Icing on the cake would be Civati pulling ahead of Cuperlo, though the gap seems a bit too wide to be bridged.

48,1% reporting

Renzi 712.520 (68,5%)
Cuperlo 185.793 (17,9%)
Civati 142.276 (13,7%)

Oh would I have loved that! (I am a Renzi supporter)

Anyway,sweet day.
Until yesterday,we all thought that even 2 millions was an unrealistic threshold,given the fall in funding and in the number of voting spots.

 Splendid outcome for the party, and hopefully the country! ;D So Letta remains PM till the next election, when Renzi runs as the PM candidate?

Update :
Renzi 1,638,934 (67.8%)
Cuperlo 434,311 (18%)
Civati 344,526 (14.3%)

That's with 85% of stations scrutinized.

Final turnout estimated around 2.5 million.

No idea why it takes so long to count those 1000 precincts... But regardless, it's a wonderful victory, well beyond the wildest expectations. After waiting way too long, left-wingers finally woke up and told the old guard to go f**k themselves. Now it's time to try something new.

I wasn't under the impression that Renzi was at all a left-winger within the context of PD.

Left-wingers voted for him (his best results were in Emilia Romagna and Tuscany!) because they were sick of the old guard which has ruined the Italian left in the last 20 years or so.

This situation reminds me of the 1984 Democratic primaries between Mondale and Hart.

Though I had hoped for a close competitive battle, it's a great victory for right leaning Italians.

The hope for a left-wing turn for the PD is nonexistent at this point and probably will be so for at least a decade. In this context, I couldn't really care less where its members position themselves ideologically (since even the "real leftists" like Bersani and D'Alema were centrists in practice). Renzi is left-wing in the sense that he's actually trying to make things marginally better, something on which most of the PD has effectively given up.

The new Renzi-appointed PD executive board is majority female and has an average age of 36.

Good.


In principle neutral, but in the context of Italian political culture probably also good.

I'm turning into a Renzi hack. He gave a really excellent interview today at Ballaro'. Of course we'll still waiting for the deeds, but he's too smart not to deliver on what he so forcefully promised.

Final PD results finally released

Renzi 1,895,252
Cuperlo 510,970
Civati 399,473

Total voters: 2,814,801

These numbers don't add up. ???

9.106 spoilt ballots

Ah, I see. So Renzi won 67.55%. Sad to see his margin over Cuperlo shrink below 50 points, but at least he's still over 2/3rds.

I read that FDiI will use the old AN logo in the EP-elections. La Destra seems angry over this and it might be hard for the to have an alliance and thereby getting less than the 4 % nedled for seats in the EP. An alliance between FDI, La Destra and for example the Pensiones party could get som seats and give the EDD or ECR some extra seats.

So, let's see:

Fassina (undersecretary of the economy, PD of the pseudo-leftist kind) resigned after Renzi poked fun at him in an interview.

Alfano officially said he agrees with Renzi on electoral reform, though I'll believe him after I see him. Hopefully things start moving fast now.

Berlusconi once again thinking about running his daughter Marina in the last election.

Bersani recently made an aneurysm and has been hospitalized. Not sure how he's doing.

So yeah, not much by Italian standards.

Italy is not Europe - it's a very special place. :P Fassina had already threatened to resign a while back, over the squabbles that accompanied the last budget. He probably was waiting for a reason to leave this government, in which he's pretty uncomfortable for obvious reasons. Besides, like all the PD pseudo-leftists, he hates Renzi's guts and probably wanted it to be known.

What kind of electoral reform is being considered?

Renzi made 3 proposals:
- The "mayor of Italy" system (yes that's how it's being called), which, if I understand correctly, basically means a direct election of the PM in a two-round system and a majority bonus to the winner's party.
- A Spanish system, with PR in very small constituencies so as to favor larger parties.
- A return to the 1993-2005 electoral law, the so-called "mattarellum", with some tweaks once again to ensure a stable majority.

I think Alfano expressed a preference for the former. It's also to see what Berlusconi will do, since Renzi indicated he's available for a broader agreement.

Berlusconi, probably, is for the Spanish system

Oh my God, that first one is awful.

But that's just my own distaste for directly-elected PMs and majority bonuses talking. Which if any do you support?

They tried that in Israel. It did not work.

I know.


I know.

Berlusconi, just this once, would be right.

To be honest, I'd be fine with any of them, as long as it works and ensures that never again we'll have to stand a situation like this one.

I understand your distaste for directly elected PMs, it's obviously very un-parliamentarian, and probably particularly unfit for a country like Italy where "strong personalities" have rarely done any good. That said, a national runoff system could be very beneficial in tactical terms. PD is only one of the 3 parties with an appeal broad enough to reach 50% (both Berlusconi and Grillo are divisive personalities loved by their own fans but hated/feared by everybody else, while the PD is just... uninspiring). Indeed, that's why PD has won nearly every local election since 2011, even when their national standing was awful, like in May-June 2013. So the runoff+majority bonus system might maximize our chances to end up with a strong, stable, PD government - which is the necessary, if obviously not sufficient, condition to stop the current disaster.

You won't like the Spanish system. It sucks.

Eh; in Israel, winning the PM election didn't give you a 'majority bonus'; it just meant you became PM.  I don't think a system where whoever comes in first place is actually guaranteed a legislative majority has been tried.

I really do not understand why Italians want a deliberately disproportional electoral system, designed to manufacture an unjustified Parliamentary majority. It almost guarantees that parties supported by the majority of the electorate will be in opposition and the government would have more power than any truly proportional system would give it. I question if such a system can even be defined as democratic.

It is true that majoritarian systems can also produce disproportionate results. However that is not an automatic result of the systems themselves, just a consequence of a particular vote distribution.

One might agree or disagree, but the reason why creating parliamentary majorities is a primary concern of Italian political debate should be obvious to anyone vaguely familiar with recent developments...

Except that much of all of that has actually been caused by mucking around with electoral systems to create majorities...

Well, the 2005 reform wasn't actually aimed at creating majorities (though that was the ostensible purpose). It was passed at a time when the right was almost assured of losing the election, so it's pretty likely that their goal was to make governing more difficult for Prodi (and boy, did they succeed...). It was easy to see why regional majority bonuses could easily lead to a catastrophe.

Details, schmetails. My point is that constantly dicking around with the electoral system for blatant political ends has certainly contributed its share to the current fiasco...

I'd prefer the German, French, Aussie models, ideally FPTP. But the small parties won't sign their death warrant.

Define "constant". There have been only two electoral reforms so far in Italy, and only the second one can be ascribed to "blatant political ends". In fact, the 1993 law was the exact opposite of that: it has effectively been imposed by the voters to a largely apathetic political establishment, following a referendum where 80% of Italians made it clear that they wanted to get rid of PR.

I obviously agree with your general point, playing around with electoral reform for political gain is a bad thing. But I just don't think this point is so important in the context of the current debate.

Ironically, small parties might prefer FPTP to a French-like two-round system. With FPTP, the large parties will probably try to get out of their way to minimize wasted votes and maximize their potential gains. So what would probably happen is that they would form agreements with their smaller allies, forming electoral agreements that leave a few safe seats to each so that only one candidate of the coalition runs in each. As a result, small party candidates would still win with the support of bigger ones. With two rounds of voting, the large parties have no need to do that: they can simply wait for the runoff to pick up their allies' votes. No need to give out any seats.

It has : it's called nowadays' France.

Piemonte's TAR has annulled the Regional elections of 2010 for "irregularity in the collection of signatures".
The elections will probably held in conjunction with the EP Elections.
The center-left's candidate will be Sergio Chiamparino, former Mayor of Turin.
For the center-right the potential candidates are incumbent President Roberto Cota (Lega Nord), Assessor Claudia Porchietto (New Centre Right) and Gilberto Pichetto, regional councilor and regional coordinator of Forza Italia.

My prediction: Centre-left Likely

PD +1 :)

Tony, out of curiosity, which (non-fringe) party do you think I'd fit in best? :P

If you don't think that any alliance with PD is an unforgivable betrayal of left-wing ideals, then SEL should be fine for you. ;)

Berlusconi wants to lead his coalition's EP list and the election to be held simultaneously w/EP.

So he's already forgot that he's ineligible? :P

Guess so. Tax fraud is tax fraud at both levels. ;D

Today, at 18:00 PM (Italy Time), Berlusconi meet Renzi at PD's HQ of Rome.
The government is hanging by a wire.

What will Berlusconi be meeting Renzi about and why is the government hanging by a wire? I thought the Berlusconi loyalists had gone into opposition months ago anyway.

Berlusconi be meeting Renzi for the electoral law, but President Letta prefer that Renzi be meeting with the parties of majority (NCD, SC, UDC). Also, for the left of PD, this meeting remit Berlusconi at stake.
Berlusconi is for the Spanish system (that favorite the largest parties). Alfano is for the "Mayor of Italy" (double shift between the 2 coalitions most voted in the first round)

You absolutely right.
Italy has a scond class democracy in which there is the obsession for the "strong man", the maturity of politicoal elite is so low that they don't want and can't find an agreement between parties, a coalition after the vote, like in any other european country .

Renzi and Berlusconi have agreed on a common plank. Sounds like a good one to me, but have they stripped the Senate of its confidence power yet? Or at least have some sort of override mechanism in there like Australia and the UK?

What I've been seeing is that it's not clear that the Senate will even be elected any more, so I imagine it is indeed being proposed that it be made something more like a normal revising chamber.

I still don't understand why Berlusconi is involved in this, or still being taken seriously in general.

http://www.ansa.it/web/notizie/rubriche/english/2014/01/29/-Electoral-law-deal-close-_9981912.html

So after the Constitutional Court stroke down the previous electoral law because of the winner's bonus and because of the closed lists, they have agreed on a new electoral law with a winner's bonus and with closed lists. Makes sense

That sounds like a horrible, convoluted mess all around.

Could anyone explain how the top 2 runoff would work? What would happen to coalitions/parties which did not place in the top 2 but won over the threshold for seats? Would some seats be attributed to them in the first round, kind of how the party list elections work in regional/mayoral elections?

Check out this article from Hashemite's lovely blog:

http://welections.wordpress.com/2013/12/25/italy-politics-2013/

Reports that Renzi may replace Letta as PM. Napolitano's met with both, but Letta has to present a coalition pact and the PD has to approve a switch Thursday. :)

Looks like Renzi has the momentum but it'll be messy. (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/12/italian-pm-enrico-letta-government-danger-collapse)

Have the other parties in the coalition indicated whether they'd vote for confidence in Renzi?

Presumably, since G-Nap is deadest against an election.

Horrible decision by Renzi...

Today, at 9.00 AM (15.00 PM in Italy), the decisive PD direction

PD central committee backs Renzi 152-13 with 16 abstentions. So presumably now Letta heads to the Quirinale and asks Napolitano to send for Renzi.

PMO: Letta will hand in his resignation tomorrow.

How do the other members of the coalition feel about this?

How long we expecting him to last?

So when does Renzi take over?

Renzi wants to take the Democratic Party-New Centre Right coalition full term.

The DP must be happy the Berlusconi's antics failed hilariously and gave them a sane center-right coalition partner.

7-10 days.

Oh boy, what a surrealistic masquerade (even by Italian standards!).

Renzi is making an ENORMOUS mistake, and proving he's not nearly the skillful politician I hoped he would be. I'm very pessimistic.

What's the feeling amongst the public with all of this? Is there backlash over how Renzi is swooping in (I'd think there has to be some since even the most ardent PD/Renzi fans here think this is a mistake) or are they just happy that Letta is leaving?

What's Silvio saying about all of this?  :P

Officially, he's on "wait and see" mode, and all around being fairly open toward Renzi. Secretly, he's probably popping Champagne.

Haven't seen any poll yet. I have absolutely no idea how the Italians will take this.

Yeah, this just comes across as a self-aggrandizing power grab.

Sunday will be held the regional elections in Sardegna.
The candidates are: for the centre-left (Pd, Sel, Communist and others) Francesco Pigliaru. For the centre-right (Fi, Udc, FdI and others) the incumbent Ugo Cappellacci. For the indipendents Michela Murgia, for the indipendents lists of centre-right Mauro Pili and others two indipendents candidates.

Why is this an enormous mistake? I'm not knowledgeable about the situation.

To go into that maneuver, I think that Renzi got PD grassroots to go in a way more legitimate and that he would have strength to impose things to NCD. Government isn't a great coalition since Berlusconi left it and NCD needs to remain to not be politically crushed in early elections. Letta was a guarantor of a great coalition and man who enabled government to survive Berlusconi threats. Now, he's more a liability than an asset. A failure in EP elections is in question too, because a defeat with Letta as PM would be bad to Renzi too. He wants to do something in "honeymoon" to go in a strong position to prevent a FI or M5S victory.

I imagine with the perception of the last election as deadlocked, and now Renzi going for a full term, this will look like an unelected government.

There are several reasons I can see:
- Because it makes Renzi look like a backstabbing hypocrite (he repeatedly assured he wouldn't threaten the government)
- Because it goes against Renzi's appeal, which has always been about opposing these kind of 1st republic-style arrangement and instead founding his legitimacy on popular support
- Because now he will have to deal directly with an unstable majority, and will take the blame for the lack of action that results from the need to accommodate everyone
- Because it means the legislature will last until 2018, which it clearly doesn't deserve to

I don't understand anything. :(

I know, Italian politics are confusing as sh*t for the uninitiated. ;)

If you have any specific question, I can do my best to explain stuff.

I read Hashemite's post now, so I'm a bit more enlightened. Still, it's...weird. Really weird.

Oh yeah, that is ridiculous.

So basically he has to be ultra centrist to appease the New Centre Right. Then in the next election, he won't be popular with the left and the New Centre Right will be wiped out, making room for Berlusconi.

Stupid.

But what would have been the alternative? Having Grillo cruise to another victory in the EP election? Then, with M5S strengthened, further, calling new elections sometimes in late 2014 / early 2015, during a phase when youth unemployment is still likely to be at a record high?

This move gives the Renzi the possibility to reach out to M5S parliamentarians and voters - at best even creating an "anti-Berlusconi" coalition with them. Moreover, by 2018 the economic situation should have improved - ideally due to sensible and effective reforms, otherwise because the downward trend just can't continue forever. Anyway, Renzi has the opportunity to pose as "engineer of Italy's recovery" in 2018. Add to that the hope that even Berlusconi will not be immune to biological processes that take place once you have passed a certain age - voila!

I hadn't thought about that, but maybe Renzi is just betting on Berlusconi's death at some time, by playing the watch. It's not that stupid after all, the Italian right should have a little hard time recovering from Silvio's disparition.

Still, for many other reasons, stated above and not, it's stupid.

It's going to be hard for the Italian right as or right now because of the heir apparent of the mainstream right breaking away and propping up a Democratic government.

Had Berlusocni died in the last 5 years or so though, I don't think it would have caused any problems at all. Alfano would have filled his shoes quite easily, probably better, since he doesn't have the baggage.

I didn't even want to imply Berlusconi's possible death. But, approaching the age of eighty, his health might deteriorate one way or the other, mentally or physically, which would detriment his masculine, womanising appeal to the electorate. In fact, the QE II scenario is probably even worse for the Italian right than Berlusconi's death.

Renzi lasting until 2018? No.

Yeah, few Italian PMs lasted more than 2 years, and those who did had the backing of a real parliamentary majority. I really want to believe Renzi will do wonders, but I'm not very hopeful right now.

Polls from IPR. Hope the translations are about right, not Italian speaker.

()

The Renzi-Letta shift

Against
In favour
Don't know/no opinion

()

Evaluation of the Letta-Renzi shift

Negative, and does not like Renzi
Negative, but likes Renzi
Positive, in order to save Italy
Don't know/ no opinion

()
How long will the Renzi government last?

Shortly, maximum a year
More than a year, but not 2018
Until the end of the term (2018)
Don't know/no opinion

Nice find!

As expected... T_T

I bet this benefits the Grillites a good bit...

Nicolo Machiavelli wrote:

"I conclude therefore that, fortune being changeful and mankind steadfast in their ways, so long as the two are in agreement men are successful, but unsuccessful when they fall out. For my part I consider that it is better to be adventurous than cautious, because fortune is a woman, and if you wish to keep her under it is necessary to beat and ill-use her; and it is seen that she allows herself to be mastered by the adventurous rather than by those who go to work more coldly. She is, therefore, always, woman-like, a lover of young men, because they are less cautious, more violent, and with more audacity command her."

The Prince. Chapter XXV.

Renzi is the adventurous and young man, whereas Letta is an older, cautious and reserved one. It's obvious which one is the chosen by Fortune.

In this video you can see an even younger Matteo Renzi circa 1994 as a contestant on the Italian version of Wheel of Fortune, obviously broadcasted by one of the Berlusconi's channels:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKbYpboK5eE

Regardless which man the changeable Fortune prefers, I wish a long live to Giorgio Napolitano, the only one who shows some decency in this shadowplay.

  

Renzi will be bringing in a bunch of younger ministers, plus some businesspeople.  (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/demolition-man-renzi-vows-to-rebuild-italy/story-fnb64oi6-1226828703242#)

Wow. Let me guess: he'll meet with the Pope sometime, too?

Yeah, probably have a selfie with Barack too.

100-day agenda.  (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-02-17/renzi-gets-mandate-to-form-italy-government-in-move-to-youth) Sounds familiar. :P

Francesco Pigliaru (CS) wins the Regional Elections in Sardegna.
With the 72,2% of the votes in, Pigliaru is in the lead with the 42,5%. The incumbent Cappellacci (CD) is at 39,3%. Michela Murgia (Ind) at 10,5%, Mario Pili (Ind of CD) at 5,9%, Pier Franco Devias (Ind) at 1% and Luigi Sanna (Ind) at 0,7%.

On the votes to the lists, with the 65,9% of votes in, Democratic Party is at 22,4%. Forza Italia at 18,4%, Udc at 7,4%.

Good. It's a meager solace considering everything else, but at least Berlusconi's local power structure keeps unraveling.

Fabrizio Barca, who had been minister under Monti and is kind of a left-wing economist, has been called by a person from Radio 24 that faked Nichi Vendola's voice. What Barca told "Vendola" was basically that De Benedetti, owner of the Espresso media group (e.g. the daily La Repubblica) is trying to press him into the Renzi government and that more in general De Benedetti is the man behind the recent political operations.

Any opinions on how serious this can be taken?

:(

What does this bring the center-right regional governments down to? Two (Calabria and Campania)? Embarrassing.

+Lombardia+Veneto+Lazio+Abbruzzo+Piemonte (though I think the latter could change)

()

Piemonte should flip soon enough, as Roberto "green underpants" Cota gets his ass kicked.

Polls are showing a lead for the center-right in both Piemonte and Abruzzo, but reliability is under question since all polls were also giving a lead to Cappellacci (CR) in Sardegna.
I think Piemonte could also swing to center-left. They are pushing a a heavyweight like Chiamparino for the primary and on the other side no one wants to be the punching bag.

In Piemonte, the CS is the favorite, considering that NCD and UDC can run without Forza Italia.

The polls I've seen were giving a lead to CD and I don't think UDC and NCD will run alone.

But still, I think Chiamparino will be the next President of Piemonte.

Let's be clear: the fascist traitors are not to be counted as "center-right." Also, Lazio is now with PD after the Polverini debacle.

The center-right regional governments are:

Piemonte (Lega), Lombardia (Lega), Veneto (Lega), Abruzzo (Forza Italia), Campania (Forza Italia) and Calabria (NCD)

The prospective timetable now is: government announced on Friday, swearing in on Saturday, and confidence vote on Monday. Hopefully it will be respected.

Government has been announced today. 8 men and 8 women. Almost all the PD guys have been replaced, but all three NCD ministers keep their portfolios (though Alfano lost his Deputy PM rank). The economy minister is yet another "technician", a guy named Padoan.

Renzi has been sworn in as PM

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26301943

Renzi seems like a strong leader; it will be interesting to see what he does with is term.

Poisoned chalice.

The key date is Monday, when he will announce his government's program and ask for the Senate's confidence. Normally it should pass, but you never know...

I second this.

Renzi speaking before the Senate right now. Confidence vote to follow.

PASOK 2015

Oh, wrong thread...

UDC 2018! :D

What about the fiscal conservatives in the north?

Renzi gets 169 votes in his confidence vote.

So now it begins for good.


Changed the title for accuracy. :P

So Renzi got the confidence in the House as well yesterday. Now time to see what he is really capable of.

Haha, there might be some deal of truth in the ironic title I just put on for this thread! ;D

Renzi visited a school yesterday, and the children greeted him with a made-for song, a sort of kiddie anthem (with lyrics such as "we clap our hands to greet you, President!" and "Matteo! Matteo!"). Opponents have already drawn parallels with fascism...

Electoral reform has passed in the House, and should soon be taken up by the Senate.

Also, Renzi unveiled a pretty major economic stimulus plan, which would cut the income tax on lower incomes by about 1000€ per year. There's also a 10% cut to the production tax, measures to speed up the payment of debts owed by the government, and later a blueprint for labor reform that would include universal unemployment benefits. Pretty big stuff all around.

All this apparently would be paid for by cuts to "unproductive" spending (the salaries of top ranking public administrators, etc), a raise in taxation on capital gains, and savings that will come from lowered interest rates. It's not fully clear whether it would be enough, but the government seems to believe it is.

Anything about the Senate in there? Either abolition or reducing its power?

The constitutional amendment abolishing the elective chamber and replacing it with a Bundesrat-like thing with a merely consultative role is due to be introduced in the upcoming days. However, the procedure for constitutional reform is very long in Italy, and will be even longer this time considering the opposition that it will inevitably steer. I don't think that will get passed within this year, tbh.

Lib Dem MEP Andrew Duff on Italy's new poor electoral law:


http://andrewduff.blogactiv.eu/2014/03/13/out-of-the-pigsty-andrew-duff-questions-italys-new-electoral-law/

Yeah, the law is objectively pretty terrible, and I fault Renzi for not fighting more over gender parity and the runoff threshold. Still, we need an electoral system that works and actually provides us with a stable majority. A sh*tty electoral system is better than status quo.

It seems like grasping for a stable majority is what brought us to the status quo in the first place.

This system is unbelievably awful. Just retaining the status quo for the Camera and reducing the power of the Senate would be preferable.

You do realize that if elections were held today under the current system, the parliament that would emerge would make Berlusconi indispensable for coalition building (and by Berlusconi, I mean that even PD + Alfano wouldn't work anymore)?

I'm tempted to argue that that's an inherent problem with Berlusconi's continued existence as a political figure, not with the electoral system, but instead I'd just ask how you figure, because at least in the case of the Camera--by 'reducing the power of the Senate' I do mean making it so that it's no longer necessary for confidence and supply, among other things--I actually didn't realize that, no.

Last December, the Constitutional Court struck down the majority bonus that was allotted under the previous electoral law. This effectively turned the electoral system in both houses into fullscale PR. While stripping the Senate of its confidence and supply powers would indeed have been sufficient under the previous system, now that alone would achieve little.

It's not possible to legislate away the fact that a very large portion of the Italian electorate wants Berlusconi.

The bonus, as stupid as it is, is the only thing that made Italy sort of governable.

I thought, if anything, they were going to expand it to both houses, rather than scrap it completely.

It's definitely worth a try. I'd really like to take principled stances like you guys, but Italy just can't afford our principles right now.

But shouldn't they at least try to make something that does not contain the two things that the constitutional court has just struck down? This seems like the German EP system spectacle all over again. I really hope the court strikes down the new law before the election as well.

The difference between the previous system and Renzi's is that the majority bonus would be assigned only if a coalition wins over 37% of the votes.* Otherwise, a runoff is held between the two most voted coalitions. What the Court did not want is to have a coalition win less than 30% and still get 55% of seats, which was considered an excessive distorsion. I'm not sure if the 37% threshold will be considered enough, but it might well be.

*Yes, I know that's still too low. There's been extensive bargain with Berlusconi to raise it, this is the best he could get.

Thanks, found this blog which discusses it further: http://www.verfassungsblog.de/de/the-italian-electoral-law-of-march-2014-still-constitutionally-questionable/#.UyYm-YXPbl0

Quite interesting. Especially the part about the threshold for smaller parties. Looking at recent polls, a quite likely result would be a victory for the centre-right which could just reach 37 %, but with all other parties than Forza Italia gaining below 4.5 % so that FI gets 54 % of the seats on as low as 25-26 % of the vote. That would be quite an excessive distortion as well.

Yeah, this is definitely a possibility - and I agree it's very questionable. I still hope the law will be improved a bit in the Senate, and that Berlusconi will be forced to accept a higher runoff threshold and lower representation thresholds. Still, if it's up or down, I take this horrible law over the intrinsically better but unworkable current one.

Wait, they're going to have run-offs for party list PR?

^^^

Could someone explain *exactly* how the new law works?

Any comments on the Veneto independence referendum?

My understanding

The starting point is PR. Thresholds are 12 % for coalitions, 8 % for parties, and 4.5 % for parties in a coalition. The party/coalition with the highest amount of votes will get a bonus of 15 %, but the bonus can only be used to reach maximum 54 %. The bonus for the leading party/coalition will only be activated if the winning entity gets at least 37 %. If no one reaches that number, a run-off betweeen the two most popular coalitions/parties will be held, and the winner will get 53 % of the seats.

Hopefully that thing will get stuck again by courts, those thresholds are horrible and the Greek-system too (but I could live with it without those thresholds).

()

An example based on the latest poll:

The centre-right coalition will just win and get 37.6 + 15 = 52.6 % of the seats. These 331 seats will be divided between Forza Italia, Lega Nord and Nuovo Centrodestra who all reached the 4.5 % mark. The remaining seats will be distributed between Partito Democratico and Movimento 5 Stelle.


Forza Italia 237 seats
Lega Nord 48 seats
Nuovo Centrodestra 46 seats

Partito Democratico 199 seats

Movimento 5 Stelle 100 seats

This calculation is without the regional parties, which I guess will still be able to win a few seats in Aosta and South Tyrol. Also with this law, it will make sense for many of the small parties to be allowed to run in a few constituencies on the biggest party's list, but I'm not sure whether the two big parties will allow that.

What exactly is going on with Venetia?

Why even hold elections, then? If it's so important that the electorate vote a particular way you might as well not have an electorate.

I never thought I would say this, but maybe they should just use FPTP.

I wouldn't mind a benevolent dictatorship in Italy right now, to be fully honest. :P

French system also works. Anything but the devilish PR.

You're becoming like me, I see.

But in all seriousness, if you're going to have a democracy you have to accept that people will simply often vote contrary to the way you wish them to.

Are they removing the confidence and supply powers from the Senate?  And if not, what's the proposed electoral system for the Senate?

An unofficial online "referendum" organised by a separatist group.

Yes, it's part of Renzi's plan. Basically, the idea is to turn the Senate into a Bundesrat-like unelected chamber of regions with merely consultative powers. However, this requires a constitutional amendment, which requires a veeery long procedures and potentially a referendum if things go wrong.

Has anyone actually tried modelling what Italian elections might look like using FPTP (or AV, or the French system)?  Would M5S get squeezed out?

Well, it's hard to model since it implies drawing uninominal electoral districts, which Italy currently doesn't have. The closest thing we have are Provincie, local government units based on cities and their surroundings. M5S won 21 of them, against 40 for the left and 49 for the right (these tallies might be misleading because there's huge variations in population). So yeah, geography probably works somewhat in favor of the established coalitions.

The Italian Left is going to get horribly, horribly, horribly crushed at some point in the comparatively near future. This stuff is delusional and stupid.

To win elections you have to win people over. Sometimes a lot of people. You don't change the fycking rules because you suck at that.

You make a valid point, but how the hell do they win people over?

"is going to"? The left is getting continuously humiliated since 2008 at least. :P

Anyway, the idea that the left is going to lose the next election because of an electoral reform they enacted (and which Berlusconi also supports) is... rather bizarre. That's not the way politics work.

That's a pretty ridiculous misinterpretation of my point. The issue is the attitude. That of a political class that wishes to reign rather than rule: voters hate that.

I'm sorry if this comes across as at all rude, but why the fyck do you think so many Italians voted for a joke party last time round?

I would suggest that they start by implementing policies that improve the lives of ordinary people.

The reasons are multiple, complex, and rather well-known by now. I don't know where you get the idea that I'm defending the Italian political establishment, especially since I'm pretty sure you have read some of my posts that weren't extremely kind toward them. The point remains that the joke party in question has only made things worse since it got into the parliament - and by making things worse I mean actively preventing good legislation from passing. So, excuse me if I don't really care for moral principles at this point. I want Italy to get out of the mess it is in right now, and the only way for this to happen is to have a strong, stable left-wing government. It might not be morally right to craft an electoral system based on this need, but it is the only possibility to avoid total disaster. I'm sincerely sorry this is the way thing are, but it is.

Who mentioned morality? What does morality have to do with anything?

Yeah but rigging the system in an undemocratic manner isn't really going to solve the problem.
This system might as well create another Berlosconi undeserved majority, and even if it resulted in the out-come you wish for, no PD-lead government with its current establishment is going to be that stable left-wing government that brings Italy out of its crisis.

As AL says, the only real way to solve the fact that a left-wing alternative can't reach 50%, is for the left to reform itself into a credible political force, not bend the rules so they can rule with-out popular support.   
 

First of all, you can't say the proposed system is "rigged" or "undemocratic". This just isn't true. It's certainly deeply flawed and criticizable on many different respects, but you can't say it's undemocratic, unless you think British FPP is even undemocratic. The system assigns a majority bonus on a fairly rational basis, and in order to get it a coalition needs to garner a significant amount of support (about 3/8th of the vote) or win a 2-way runoff. It might not be entirely fair, but the same could be said of many systems.

And yes, I acknowledged before that there was a risk Berlusconi could win. I think that's a risk worth running. I guess that says a lot about how desperate I am, but yeah, at this point I'd rather flip a coin and have half a chance of saving Italy and half of dooming it, rather than staying in the situation we are right now.



The left is doing exactly that with Renzi right now. Probably not in a way Al would approve of (neither do I really, though I acknowledge the improvement in relative term), but still. If Renzi had been the candidate in 2013, he'd have won handily and by now a good deal of problems would be behind us. But even then, it's not like it would reach 50%. Let's face it, it's pretty hard for an established political coalition to win over 50% of votes in any European country nowadays. Everywhere you have an anti-establishment populist force that messes up with the bipolarized system - even in Sweden, as you know! Thus there are basically three ways to deal with that situation: either you find ways to integrate the populist parties into the established system, like in Denmark (but that obviously can't work with M5S), or you accept the idea of having a quasi-permanent grand coalition in power (and we see how well it worked in Italy...), or you establish an electoral system that makes it possible for a majority to emerge. Most countries have opted for this solution in some way or another: France, the UK, and even Spain in a milder form. I don't see what's wrong with Italy doing the same thing. Again, we can discuss the technicalities of this system, but the general idea behind it isn't something particularly new or controversial.

Most European countries have proportional electoral systems, and they've all accepted the principle at European level. There are ways to help coalitions over the majority line, like Germany's 5% threshold or Ireland's transferable vote in small constituencies.

However, there's practically no European electoral system that delivers a one-party majority on 29% of the vote (some recent opinion polls suggested the PD could win with 29%). Even the British system wouldn't do that. The majority bonus gives the same right to rule to parties winning 29% and 45%, under the correct circumstances.

Italy is certainly in a more serious situation than other European countries, but a government elected by 29% of the people would have real legitimacy questions in enforcing its reforms , particularly when that 29% seems to regard the other 71% as more or less craven or obstructionist.

I do think FPTP is undemocratic.

OK, but can't you apply that same logic to the Right? :P What has Berlusconi done for ordinary people?

(Not purely rhetorical btw-this is something I've thought about. Seems that the Left in a lot of countries, Italy included,  must have concrete, tangible reasons for ordinary people to vote for them. The Right doesn't seem to have this particular issue to the same extent.)

I guess the basic issue is that Italian politics have been terrible for quite a while now. :P

And I would tend to agree with that.

Still, I'd argue that this system is still less undemocratic than FPP thanks to the runoff provision.

I'd argue that it's far less democratic than FPTP, which for all its flaws is very transparent; each voter votes for their local candidate, and the candidate with the most votes is elected. What exactly is a vote cast for in this system? Nobody knows.

I'm sorry, I have to post this as a perfect example of pots-meeting-kettles

(speaking of a Renzi speech)

..."There was populism, there was demagogy, but very little that was concrete," said Paola Taverna of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement...

?!?!

PD candidates for EU elections

www.partitodemocratico.it/doc/267035/i-candidati-alle-elezioni-europee-2014.htm

All the list leaders are women. That's a pretty refreshing sign.

And 4/5 are exceptionally good-looking :D

That's a pretty irrelevant sign.

Antonio, what if anything do you know about these people as individuals?

You live in a different world than most of us if you believe looks don't play a role in politics.

I ought to have said that it should be an irrelevant sign.

Penis voting isn't a thing.

Not much, tbh. Moretti and Bonafè are mid-level political figures who are sometimes mentioned in the news, but I can't remember which currents they hail from. The other three I hadn't heard about before.

Xahar is correct.

Bonafé is from Renzi's camp.

Moretti arrived on the national scene as Bersani's press spokepersone during his primary campaign

Picierno is close to Franceschini.

Mosca worked for Letta.

Caterina Chinnici is a magistrate and didn't previously take part to elective political world.

Nicolini (mayor of Lampedusa) withdrew from Sicily-Sardinia list after being placed third.
Emiliano (mayor of Bari) is also threatening withdrawal

Anyway they are open list. So voters can list preferences and elected MEPs won't depend on the list place. Obviously being at the top helps but some people in second or third position will likely beat the current head of lists.

I see Cecilie Kyenge is running. So we know what Lega Nord will campaign on in Nord Est...

Eu elections Polls (9-11 April)....Datamaedia/Piepoli/IPSOS/EMG/IXE'
 
PD 31.3/33/33.9/33.9/32.2%
M5S 24.3/24.5/22.3/22.5/25.2%
FI 20/19/20.5/20.9/19.1%
NCD-UDC 5/6/5.3/5.1/5.2%
Lega 5/4/5.8/4.4/5.3%
Tsipras 3.9/4.5/3.1/3.1/4.2%
Brothers of Italy 3.3/3.5/3/3.4/3.6%
Civic Choice & Co 2.3/2.4/3.4/2.1/1.9%

Marcello Dell'Utri, a longtime friend of Berlusconi's and founding member of the original Forza Italia, fled the country yesterday while the Cassation Court was expected to deliver the final verdict on charges of association with the mafia. He was just caught in Lebanon and is expected to soon be extradited.

Paolo Bonaiuti, the historical spokesman of Berlusconi, leaves Forza Italia. Probably, he  enters in the New Centreright.
The New Centreright, in his costituent assembly, elected Angelino Alfano president of the party.

Bonafè is a long-standing Renzi supporter.
Moretti was one of the three "youngsters" chosen by Bersani to accompany him during the '13 political elections,but since then she has distanced herself from the PD minority.
Chinnici is the daughter of a judge killed by the mafia in the 80's.

The Renzi effect: still have to pop the M5S bubble. (http://albertonardelli.tumblr.com/post/83098681998/the-renzi-effect)

I'm not so sure it's really a bubble, at this point. Theoretically, this would be the ideal time for M5S to collapse, considering Renzi's dynamism and their own internal strifes. Yet their polling numbers have barely budged since 2013. It's pretty clear they now have a floor of about 15-20%, that even Renzi can't really crack.

Yesterday Renzi presented his final plan for the 1000€ income tax cut.

There are a few disappointments. The measure is covered only for the year 2014 (though he promised to make it permanent), and more importantly, it doesn't cover the lowest incomes (those who didn't even pay taxes). Still, it's better than nothing. And Renzi found different ways to cut spending without really hurting the social safety net, which is a welcome change from previous governments.

Euro poll in the Corriere this morning

PD 35% (28 seats + 1 for SVP)
M5S 21.4% ((18 seats)
Forza Italia 19.6% (17)
New Centre Right 6.4% (5)
Lega 4.9% (4)
Brothers of Italy 3.8%
European Choice 3.5%
Tsipras 2.9%

He promised a measure within the next weeks for the even-lower incomes.

Berlusconi says for Germans, "concentration camps never existed." (http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/04/26/silvio-berlusconi-says-nazi-death-camps-never-existed/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)

"A Berlusconi stalwart, former education minister Mariastella Gelmini, dismissed the flap as campaign propaganda."

Lol, ok.

The weirdest part is that it seems like there was absolutely 0 reason to even approach that topic in the first place.

Probably see a small bump in the polls, to be honest.

"OMG FILIPPO WHY R U DEFENDING HIM?!? DISGUSTING AND TYPICAL!!!"

I'm not.

Glad we got that out of the way.

Forza Italia's campaign is purely anti-german.
Their motto is "more Italy and less Germany in the EU"...

I can see a big reason.

"OMG people stop talking about Renzi!! Pay attention to me!! See how wacky I am! GUYS!"

Nailed it.

Classic RL trolling from him, if a bit more vile than usual.

Right and they did it last year, too. And don't you think that works?

Why am I not surprised that Berlusconi has Cosa Nostra links? (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/silvio-and-the-cosa-nostra-berlusconis-links-with-italian-organised-crime-confirmed-9358790.html)

It's been known for decades.

OK guys, let's switch here for comments on the Renzislide and its aftermath. ;)

I really want to see what Grillo says now. Still hasn't spoken. Before the vote he said he would "go away" if he didn't win this time, adding "this is not a joke". His feet will be on fire for some time now... ;D

Final results:

PD 40.81%
M5S 21.15%
FI 16.81%
LN 6.15%
NCD 4.38%
Tsipras 4.03%
FdI 3.66%

In terms of coalitions, that means the left is at 44.84, and the right at 31%. Wow.

Of the registered voters, 55.57% cast a valid vote, 3.12% an invalid one, and 41.31 abstained.

This more than compensates for that horrendous afternoon in February '13...

When do they start counting for the regionals? Piemonte is shaping up to be a huge landslide too!

Yes,even though the no-TAV in the Val di Susa will help Grillo.
Abruzzo will be much,much tighter.
Anyway results should start flowing in around 3/4...

Italy really did produce a glorious result. Wow

Indeed! PD's is the best showing for any national party since the 1950s. It will be the largest party in the S&D group, and it seems to be the second-best showing for a governing party after Romania.

With 0.1% reporting, Chiamparino at 50%.

Where are the Abruzzo results? I can't find them on the Interno website.

Abruzzo is reporting its results on its own separate website. There's a link to it from the main electoral portal page on the Ministry's website.

I did kind of wish the Northern League would be dead after Bossi, but you can't win everything, I guess.

Unfortunately, Salvini has done a pretty good job at rebranding Lega as the "Euro suxxx!!!" party... So the new Lega is a bit less awful than the old one, at least they seem a bit less corrupt and fake, though they're just as racist as before.

The newly elected MEPs (some will join later after some resignations from Salvini, Fitto & co).

CIRCOSCRIZIONE NORD OVEST

PARTITO DEMOCRATICO (9): Alessia Mosca, Sergio Cofferati, Mercedes Bresso, Patrizia Toia, Panzeri Pierantonio, Renata Briano, Luigi Morgano, Beniferi Brando, Daniele Viotti
MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE (4): Beghin Tiziana, Marco Valli, Eleonora Evi, Marco Zanni
FORZA ITALIA (3): Giovanni Toti, Lara Comi, Alberto Cirio
LEGA NORD (2): Matteo Salvini, Gianluca Buonanno
L'ALTRA EUROPA CON TSIPRAS (1): Moni Ovadia
NUOVO CENTRODESTRA - UDC (1): Maurizio Lupi

CIRCOSCRIZIONE NORD EST

PARTITO DEMOCRATICO (6): Alessandra Moretti, Flavio Zanonato, Cécile Kyenge, Paolo De Castro, Isabella De Monte, Elly Schlein
MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE (3): David Borrelli, Marco Affronte, Giulia Gibertoni
FORZA ITALIA (2): Elisabetta Gardini, Remo Sernagiotto
LEGA NORD (2): Matteo Salvini, Flavio Tosi
SVP (1): Herbert Dorfmann

CIRCOSCRIZIONE CENTRO

PARTITO DEMOCRATICO (7): Simona Bonafè, David Sassoli, Enrico Gasbarra, Goffredo Bettini, Nicola Danti, Silvia Costa, Roberto Gualtieri
MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE (3): Laura Agea, Fabio Massimo Castaldo, Dario Tamburrano
FORZA ITALIA (2): Antonio Tajani, Alessandra Mussolini
L'ALTRA EUROPA CON TSIPRAS (1): Barbara Spinelli
LEGA NORD (1): Matteo Salvini

CIRCOSCRIZIONE SUD

PARTITO DEMOCRATICO (6): Gianni Pittella, Pina Picierno, Elena Gentile, Massimo Paolucci, Andrea Cozzolino, Nicola Caputo
MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE (5): Isabella Adinolfi, Laura Ferrara, Rosa D'Amato, Daniela aiuto, Piernicola Pedicini
FORZA ITALIA (4): Raffaele Fitto, Aldo Patriciello, Fulvio Martusciello, Barbara Matera
NOVO CENTRODESTRA - UDC (1): Lorenzo Cesa
L'ALTRA EUROPA CON TSIPRAS (1): Barbara Spinelli

CIRCOSCRIZIONE ITALIA INSULARE

PARTITO DEMOCRATICO (3): Renato Soru, Caterina Chinnici, Michela Giuffrida
MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE (2): Ignazio Corrao, Giulia Moi
FORZA ITALIA (2): Salvo Pogliese, Salvatore Cicu
NUOVO CENTRODESTRA - UDC (1): Giovanni La Via

Lega Nord attracted A LOT of former M5S voters in Northern Italy.

Overall,with respect to the 2013 elections,PD gained some 3 million votes,while Grillo's movement lost around 2.

With 1% in, it's shaping up as a PD landslide in Piemonte.

Time for the clowns (Silvio included) to finally leave the scene. Thanks.

The Abruzzo website has crashed. What a joke.

With slightly over 15% in, Piemonte seems to be over. Chiamparino leading in every province now.

These people aren't programmed to change their minds.

20% of Abruzzo is in, and the PD guy has a double digit lead so far. So this is gonna be PD+2. :)

Yeah, 2/3 counted in Piemonte and 1/2 in Abruzzo. It's over. The regional map is now almost entirely red. :)

Chiamparino will get 46-47% to 23% for the right. In Abruzzo the left should win 40-25.

Dominating.

OMG the PD guy got 46% in Abruzzo.

Chiamparino won 47%, 2 points above the combined left total in the Europeans.

Given that it is such a broad tent party, do the people elected mostly come from the leftist/SD part of it or the centrist/moderate part?

It's hard to say really, especially since the main divides in the PD really have nothing to do with ideology. And even the old DC/PCI background divide doesn't have much relevancy these days (considering how some "communists" like D'Alema have turned out...). There aren't very many leftists left in the PD: at this point it's basically Civati and a handful of his buddies. Civati himself is a pretty good leader, he's charismatic and could have a bright future (although not until Renzi will be so dominant). So anyway, Chiamparino, the guy who won in Piedmont, was one of Renzi's earliest supporters (even though he's an old timer, he was the mayor of Turin a while ago). He was Renzi's unofficial candidate for the presidency in 2013, actually. I don't know anything about the Abruzzo guy though.

They are counting the ballots of mayoral run offs right now.

PD takes Vercelli and Verbania in a landslide. Good win in Biella too.
PdL lose Pavia. Giorgio Gori gain Bergamo.
Bari is easy for PD. Same in Pescara

But

They are losing in Padova and Potenza.
They have lost Livorno to 5 Stars....and Perugia to center/right!!'

Mayoral run offs:


Centre-Left hold: Modena, Terni, Bari

CL gain from CR: Biella, Vercelli, Verbania, Bergamo, Pavia, Cremona, Pescara

5Stars gain from CL: Livorno

CR gain from CL: Padova, Perugia, Foggia, Potenza

CR hold: Teramo


Perugia's first round result was luckluster but it was the same in next door Terni. Terni was held easily in the run off. In Perugia the incumbent mayor was swept away yesterday. He lost over 14,000 votes compared to 2 weeks ago

Let me guess, turnout in each city was much lower than in the first round?

As usual.

Overall,PD won around 65% of all cities,and 19 out of 29 "capoluoghi",so very impressive result.

The bad results in Perugia and Livorno are mostly due to local weaknesses;the centerleft has ruled there for a long time and not in a good way,so a defeat could be expected,and might even be positive in that part of the "old party" (D'Alema and Bersani's people,who dominate especially in PD strongholds) will be dismissed also at the local level.

I'm under the impression, true or false, that Livorno is a quite left-wing city of workers tradition. Is the M5S vote there a kind of left-wing protest vote against a tired PD establishment or something else ?

Exactly.

With Renzi government so solid, should be time for Napolitano get out of Quirinale? Or he'll remain, as a Presidential Election would be a mess?

Out of curiosity, what do we think would happen if Renzi were to call an election at some point within the next, say, six months?

From what I've understood, he plans to stay until the electoral and constitutional reforms will be passed, ensuring a more stable political situation.



I'm not sure PD would reach 40% in a general election, where turnout is generally higher, but it would still do pretty well, above 35%. Still, that wouldn't be enough for a majority, as long as the electoral system isn't reformed. So the situation would be more or less what it is now, except NCD would be marginalized while FI gains ground.

Both of these answers beg the question of if there's any timetable for getting the reforms (which I still maintain are godawful, but they're better than nothing) passed yet.

There is supposed to be a timetable, but it keeps being postponed for one reason or the other... Renzi now says he wants to get the Senate reform done by the end of the summer, but I have a hard time believing it, considering how tortuous the process for constitutional reform is. Also, Berlusconi is seemingly distancing himself from his former commitment (not surprising, but still), which will make its path to a majority a bit narrower - though still practicable. Basically, we really have to wait and see.

Pretty much.
Senate,electoral law,justice and PA reform are next in line.
The first two are the priorities,after which Napolitano could possibly resign. Not that it would facilitate anything,tbh.

I don't know if this is a popular opinion within Italy or not, but from where I'm standing I really think Napolitano deserves the best in the world for all he's done to keep the country functioning. I hope he can get some rest and something at least resembling a retirement soon. He's ancient as it is.

Yes, Napolitano is definitely an impressive example of personal abnegation and service to the country. Several of his recent decisions were highly misguided, such as pushing so hard for an alliance with Berlusconi even when other options were on the table by not giving Bersani a full mandate to seek a parliamentary majority. And I'm pretty sure he seriously considered the possibility of pardoning Berlusconi, before he blew it by acting like an idiot. Still, I have no doubt that he did everything he thought was necessary to preserve the country. Anyway, yes, it would be high time for him to retire and finally get some rest.

Today Renzi met with M5S leaders, who finally agreed to have a discussion/negotiation on electoral reform (for which they unveiled their own proposal). The meeting was broadcast on live stream. So, in short, there's still a long way to go, but both sides showed some good will and further meetings should follow. If they're serious about this, it's actually a great occasion to significantly improve the law.

This is because most of the right has flaked out of their commitment to this, isn't it?

Interestingly, Berlusconi had actually re-endorsed the compromise a few days before M5S led their availability be known (of course Berlusconi's word is never worth much, but still at least in theory the plan was back on track). What's really surprising is the M5S' sudden openness to discussion and compromise with other parties, something that was thought impossible mere weeks ago. The results of the last elections may have something to do with it though.

I can imagine some more rabid 5-star activists are none too happy, no?

Not as far as I know. The most rabid wing of the M5S base basically consist of Grillo cultists who'll support anything he supports and despise anything he despises - so I guess as long as Grillo gives his blessing to these efforts (he might very well disown them at some point) things will go on.

The whole Grillo cult is really weird, its hard to see the appeal of the guy. Who are the Grillo cultists?

He speaks loud and (at least somewhat rightfully) thrashes the Italian political class for its evil deeds. He's basically your standard 21st century demagogue, just without the xenophobic undertones that accompanies it elsewhere and instead with a weird fascination for Teh Internetz instead. I don't have details about the demographics of the M5S hardcore, but the common stereotype holds that it's mostly made of youth with little economic capital but at least some cultural capital. The typical postmaterialist internet activist who's probably fond of Anonymous, hates politicians, believes the internet alone will usher in freedom and prosperity throughout the world, and is very pissed off because he's unemployed while greedy banksters get their pockets filled. Don't know if that's a faithful depiction, though.

So Grillo supporters are like Pirate Party supporters. :P

The M5S' origins stem very much from this type of environment, yes. On the other hand, the current M5S electorate is a very different beast, and it seems to resist all categorization.

These people should have no issue about PD. :P

I can understand people not being psychologically able to vote for socialists, but physically? Do they get red commie spasms when they are in the voting booth every time the pencil gets near a left wing candidate?

Err, surely these sorts vote NCD?

(Shameless plug)

If anybody's curious, I've published my analysis of the EP election in Italy and I have included a lot of stats about vote flows and voter demographics which may be of interest to some people here.

http://welections.wordpress.com/2014/07/08/eu-2014-italy/

Indeed.
Plus all of the conspiracy guys.


As for the Perot comparison,I would disagree. M5S tends to be much more violent,speech-wise.

They seem like fleshed out and angrier Pirates to me.

Salvini comes out in support of a flat tax. A nice reminder for the morons who think the European far-right is "economically leftist".

You shouldn't call people morons because they disagree with you; it's an offensive term. One human data point does not disprove a general claim about parties as diverse as FN, PVV, DF, Finns, etc.

Berlusconi has been acquitted in the Ruby the Heart Stealer/underage sex case. The ban on serving in elected office is now lifted.

:o Really no idea what happened. I can't help but wonder if Napolitano had some influence in this.



No. The sentence under which he is banned from holding office for 6 years had nothing to do with this case.

Berlusconi needs to keel over already.

Just reporting what I saw from several media sources (none of which were Il Giornale ;) ). 

Foreign media are prone to getting things wrong (especially when the picture is THAT complicated).

So I was also told that the "two year ban" (I assume the individual meant six year) wasn't struck down but the lifetime ban was. That isn't true either?

The lifetime ban was from the appealed sentence, so yes obviously it won't take effect (it never had, anyway).

The Senate started discussing the constitutional bill proposed by Renzi, which would drastically reduce its power. Of course, many Senators are opposed to the bill. They filled 7800 amendments, and started discussing them at the average speed of 3 per day... It looks like a defining moment for Renzi.

Indeed... If he doesn't manage to get it through by September, things will probably go downhill from there.

Does this mean it passed (http://www.lifeinitaly.com/news/senate-approves-article-two-renzi-reform-bill)? I thought the vote was next week?

Also, what's with SEL's opposition to weakening the Senate? I thought left-wing parties are generally more opposed to upper chambers.

The Italian hard-left is, for some reason, obsessed with the fear of an "authoritarian drift" of Italian politics. They think that if the "checks and balances" of the Italian constitution are weakened, democracy will be in danger and the PM will become some kind of quasi-dictator. Instinctive anti-Renzism may also play a big role.

Anyway, this is fantastic news. It wasn't the final vote, but the bill's key provision was passed with 194 ayes (of ~320), a solid majority. Now they say the final vote might come next week.

I think that votes on specific articles (which serve to summarily dismiss flocks of amendments and do not preclude the need for a final vote on the entire bill) are a fairly common procedure in Italian and French legislative processes. Doesn't that exist in the US?

Yes, which is why I deleted the post I made asking the question. I realized I'd misread the article.

So it looks like Italy's back in recession again :( Again.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/07/business/international/italy-falls-back-into-recession-raising-concern-for-eurozone-economy.html?_r=0

I don't know what to say. I guess it will take time to get the country back on track. We can get there... but only if the Italian voters don't screw up.

On the bright side, Senate reform is about to pass! :) Final vote probably tonight or tomorrow.

Ok I think I finally found a source that explained the process.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-06/renzi-to-test-senate-resistance-on-plans-to-remake-italian-state.html


So that earlier vote of 194-126 (60.6%) basically guarantees there will be a referendum because there won't be a two-thirds supermajority on the floor vote, right?

Today's vote gives a hint of what may happen: the opponents decided to abstain and the reform just passed in the Senate with 100% of the votes.

But there is still a long way to go according to your article.

Yes, it's likely that we will have a referendum as well, but I wouldn't worry too much about it, as Italians will be all too happy to get rid of the hated Senate. :P Yes, the path is still very long (it might be a year or two before the reform is written in stone), but the hardest part - getting the Senate to pass the reform - has been done.

So does Renzi really do the no necktie thing regularly?

Apulia poll for the Regional Election of 2015. The SWG poll is a PD internal.

CS Primary

Voters that with great probability will go to vote:

Former Bari Mayor Michele Emiliano (PD) 65%
Senator and Apulia Assessor Dario Stefano (SEL) 25%
Assessor Guglielmo Minervini (PD) 10%
Undecided 24%

With leaners:

Former Bari Mayor Michele Emiliano (PD) 59%
Senator and Apulia Assessor Dario Stefano (SEL) 23%
Assessor Guglielmo Minervini (PD) 18%
Undecided 21%

CD Primary

With MEP and Former Apulia Governor Raffaele Fitto (FI)

Voters that with great probability will go to vote:

MEP and Former Apulia Governor Raffaele Fitto (FI) 50%
Bari Province President Francesco Schittulli (Schittulli Movement) 34%
Lecce Mayor Paolo Perrone (FI) 13%
Former MEP Sergio Silvestris (FI) 3%

With leaners:

MEP and Former Apulia Governor Raffaele Fitto (FI) 54%
Bari Province President Francesco Schittulli (Schittulli Movement) 27%
Lecce Mayor Paolo Perrone (FI) 16%
Former MEP Sergio Silvestris (FI) 3%

Without MEP and Former Apulia Governor Raffaele Fitto (FI)

Voters that with great probability will go to vote:

Bari Province President Francesco Schittulli (Schittulli Movement) 69%
Lecce Mayor Paolo Perrone (FI) 24%
Former MEP Sergio Silvestris (FI) 7%

With leaners:

Bari Province President Francesco Schittulli (Schittulli Movement) 60%
Lecce Mayor Paolo Perrone (FI) 30%
Former MEP Sergio Silvestris (FI) 10%

General Election Match-Ups:

Former Bari Mayor Michele Emiliano (CS) 43%
Bari Province President Francesco Schittulli (CD) 31%
A M5S candidate (M5S) 21%
Others 5%
Undecided 17%

Bari Province President Francesco Schittulli (CD) 36%
Assessor Guglielmo Minervini (CS) 32%
A M5S candidate (M5S) 24%
Others 8%
Undecided 20%

Senator and Apulia Assessor Dario Stefano (CS) 35%
Bari Province President Francesco Schittulli (CD) 33%
A M5S candidate (M5S) 25%
Others 7%
Undecided 20%

Former Bari Mayor Michele Emiliano (CS) 43%
MEP and Former Apulia Governor Raffaele Fitto (CD) 35%
A M5S candidate (M5S) 19%
Others 3%
Undecided 14%

MEP and Former Apulia Governor Raffaele Fitto (CD) 40%
Assessor Guglielmo Minervini (CS) 30%
A M5S candidate (M5S) 24%
Others 6%
Undecided 18%

Senator and Apulia Assessor Dario Stefano (CS) 33%
MEP and Former Apulia Governor Raffaele Fitto (CD) 39%
A M5S candidate (M5S) 22%
Others 6%
Undecided 19%

Former Bari Mayor Michele Emiliano (CS) 45%
Lecce Mayor Paolo Perrone (CD) 30%
A M5S candidate (M5S) 19%
Others 6%
Undecided 16%

Former Bari Mayor Michele Emiliano (CS) 51%
Former MEP Sergio Silvestris (CD) 24%
A M5S candidate (M5S) 19%
Others 6%
Undecided 16%

http://bari.repubblica.it/cronaca/2014/08/21/news/sondaggio-94192648/#gallery-slider=94201953

My Opinion:
Given the weakness of M5S at Regional Elections and their recent comments on ISIS ("elevate terrorists at interlocutors") those percentages are too high.

@AntonioV. I think that it's time to renamed the thread in "Italy 2014: The road to Regionals Elections"

Really? From what I've seen, nobody in Italy is giving a crap about regional elections that will be held nearly a year from now. :P

What is an "Assessor" in the Italian context ?

A member of the regional government with a specific issue.

Matteo Richetti (Renzi man) and Stefano Bonaccini (Renzi man, but of the last hour) are in for the Emilia-Romagna Gubernatorial Primary, that will be held on September 28.

Oh my God, why would the guy that allowed Vendola to win and become who he is (or was?) be in the running again?

Renzi said he was in favour of the referendum anyway,so that leftist politicians can realize that Italians are in favour of the reform. No 50% quorum anyway.

Title updated to reflect Italy's supposed "new strength" in European politics (due to the EP results, Mogherini's appointment, and the semester of ceremonial Italian presidency). Of course it's mostly bull, but let's have fun. :P

Anyway, there's apparently a bankruptcy fraud allegation against Renzi's... father. Don't know how big that is.

Also, the Parliament is supposed to elect two Justices of Italy's Constitutional Court (which apparently takes a 2/3 supermajority), but after 13 ballots they still have been unable to agree. Renzi and Berlusconi had agreed on two guys (one from PD and one from FI), but FI "dissidents" are refusing to go along. This is quite significant, considering these guys are openly disobeying their Dear Leader. I think it was unheard of in a party like FI.

From what I gather, it's mostly FI though. There are a couple PD loose cannons, but for once the major split isn't on the left. :P

Just to let you know, Renzi is under fire from basically everyone these days. And I mean everyone. Columnists, entrepreneurs, bishops, trade unions, PD politicians, leftists, rightists... It's a mass attack.

It's certainly not entirely unwarranted (he's been acting like a dick), but the violence of the attacks, and their seemingly concerted (or possibly conformist) nature leaves me quite perplexed. And it fit well into Renzi's anti-establishment narrative.

Dare I ask how the political reform is going?

Not moving much right now. It passed a major step in August with the Senate's favorable vote (it's really a big deal: the Senate, the House of Gridlock by excellence, voted to abolish itself), but since the government has chosen to put other reforms on top of its agenda. Right now, they are at the frontline to push through their (quite neoliberal) labor market reform, which is the source of much controversy these days. My guess is that if Renzi comes out on top from this battle (far from sure), institutional/electoral reforms will once again be pushed forward and should overcome their hurdles. Still, it might take around a year before everything gets written in stone.

Ugh. Let me guess, Article 18 of the Statute of Workers is on the chopping block. Am I close?

Is there any hope at all that the labor market reform gets defeated or significantly altered but the political reform goes through anyway?

()

In fairness, the project entirely awful - I don't know the specific but apparently it would also include a much more inclusive system for unemployment benefits and a simplification of the most anomalous forms of contracts. But yeah, Article 18 is what everybody is talking about.



Anything can happen, considering how furious the PD's left-wing/old-guard is at Renzi. The really bad news is that FI has been conspicuously praising it (even though there are internal disagreement inside it too). It would be conceivable to see the bill be passed over the objections of a sizable share of the PD group, through an unholy Renzi-Berlusconi alliance, thus effectively giving the latter a significant stake in policymaking. I really hope Renzi will realize the implications and back down, but he has always been a pretty stubborn person.

Among the total indifference of everybody, the indirect  (electorate is made up by mayors and municipal councillors) election for new presidents of Provinces and for provincial councils took place today in the great majority of areas.

Anything interesting happen?

Labor reform passed in the Senate in a confidence vote, Renzi is relieved, Berlusconi and Grillo make their usual antics... So no, nothing worthwhile.

Nah I meant in the indirect elections. More Renzimania?

I guess I called it with the wrong term. In Italian it's "elezioni di II livello". How is it translated?

Basically the electorate is formed by mayors and local councillors. As PD dominated latest round of local elections, they also  won in the great majority of places yesterday

In Catanzaro Forza Italia city mayor lost and ended up at the hospital after a fight against a former local cabinet memebr at the end of the count

Right won Cosenza, Lecce, Avellino. UDC in Barletta-Andria-Trani. Almost everything else to PD
Some areas had only 1 candidate. There were also some PD-Forza Italia alliances (Livorno).

So how close was this vote on stadium mandates that now require clubs to pay for their own security and allow security to use tazers on out-of-control fans?

No you were right, don't worry.

Renzi just launched his 2015 budget, slashing taxes by 18 billion euros, (15 billion of spending cuts and 3 billion of borrowing as well).

Centre-left easily gain Reggio Calabria mayorality in yesterday's special election.

197 counted out of 218

Centre-left candidate 61.24%
Centre-right (Forza Italia + NCD+FdI+local lists 27.21%
Local lists + spoof lists like Grillo Parlante-No Euro 3.2%
M5S 2.5%
5 other mayoral candidates not reaching 2% (2 below 1%)

M5S went from 25% to 2,5%...hilarious.

TOMORROW: Gubernatorial elections in Emilia-Romagna and Calabria.

Why? What's caused the decline in M5S's support?

()

()

the only real opponents of renzi are in his party...

How is PD getting all these victories? They must be the only party in Europe that has become more popular (at least election-wise) after they got into power.

It is rather strange. The fundamentals are bad. There is still a recession and unemployment is rising. On the other hand, Italy has repudiated austerity; its debt/GDP is above 130% and rising. Italy has made no meaningful impact in European debates and much of this year's national debate has been on the fallow subject of electoral reform.

How, in spite of all these? First, the PD replaced Letta with Renzi as PM before the European Parliament elections. They were the biggest election so far, and it was effectively during a political honeymoon. Renzi's budget policy so far has been tax cuts. Cut taxes and you get praised by both anti-austerity believers and the Wall Street Journal. The economy may be doing badly, but at least the government is on your side. What's not to like? This game eventually ended Berlusconi's career, but global yields have dropped since then.

Second, Renzi has adopting many elements of Berlusconi's strategy: not just tax cuts but also the criticism of Europe and mixing a rhetoric of radicalism and liberalism with an absence of actual threats to vested interests. Renzi refrains from the PD's usual outright personal anathema against Berlusconi, who in turn publicly supports Renzi on many topics. This has undermined Forza Italia.

Third, Renzi embodies generational change within both the PD and Italian politics generally. This might appeal to young supporters of M5S and voters who didn't want to be governed by former communists who chose Forza Italia instead. But don't underestimate the value of tax cuts in creating these positive feelings.

Salvini is verging on overtaking FI in opinion polls.

Renzi must be the luckiest politician in the world - I mean he gets to face three joke parties and seemingly nobody else despite rapidly worsening fundamentals. If I were him, I'd call snap elections now just to get some kind of "mandate".

Oh and some Movement Five Star nobodies decided to disobey His Holiness Grilo, and appear on TV. Grillo had an e-sulk and promptly excommunicated them in a "popular vote".

He simply realised the popular low-tax aspects of Berlusconi's manifesto, sidelined the unpopular parts of his own party, and added his own shiny new young face to it, while the Keynesian stimulus seems completely ineffective and lets Renzi wait for some future successor to pay the bill.

The so-called joke parties collectively outpoll the PD, which could matter in a future Senate election if there is an anti-European majority among M5S, FI and LN. Renzi's majority is built on not just PD but also one party which didn't run last time and two parties which have withered since then.

Why the hell is Lega Nord doing so well again? This Salvini guy is worse than Bossi. He's more dangerous: a cool, nice face behind an evil party.

How did Silvio's "No Tax Day" stuff go? I'm just seeing some clips on Ballaró and it seems like yesterday's news (I mean that figuratively).

The story of Lega Nord in Emilia-Romagna is that they held onto their 2010 vote when Forza Italia, and to a lesser extent PD, suffered massively from abstentions. Nationally, the Lega's current polling performance is not unprecedented at mid-term.

Also consider that the other centre-right and right-wing parties are now polling less than 20% combined; and that, furthermore, Lega Nord is the closest approximation to Generic Anti-Foreigner Party, albeit in a country where lots of other parties are now, also, leery of the EU.

Hey, so lots of stuff has been happening in the past month! Apart the election news that have been mentioned in this thread, you should know that:
- Napolitano announced he will be resigning early next year, so speculations on who the next President will be are running loose.
- Renzi's "Jobs Act" passed, after some slight watering-down as a compromise with the PD's left-wing. Still, most of the law's actual content will be shaped by the government's decrees, so stay tuned to see what this law actually means.
- There was a HUGE (and I mean, by Italian standards :o) Mafia scandal in Rome recently. Basically a clique of criminals close to former far-right terrorists was effectively running the city's immigrant-welcoming services and various other activities, with the city council's support. Fortunately, the mayor Ignazio Marino is one of the few guys who genuinely had nothing to do with all this mess, so he still has a mandate to try and clean it up.
- Renzi's popularity is finally starting to falter, now his approvals and disapprovals are about even in most polls. Still he remains most popular party leader.
- Grillo effectively stepped down from the M5S leadership (right after expelling two more "dissidents"). He appointed a "board" of five people, chosen among his most vehement supporters, to take care of everything. M5S's collapse might be close...

Renzi 4 Prez...so we can have new government elections by the end of 2015. :D

Tbf, it would be quite hilarious if we went from a 90-year-old President to a 40-year-old one overnight. :P

I'm going to be in Florence this May, so hopefully I'll see Emperor...President...PM...Renzi around! ;D

Well, he's probably staying in Rome these days... :P Though I (with Hash and Zanas) went to Florence back when he was Mayor. :D

Oh yeah, but I thought it was kind of amusing to share! ;)

It'll be my goal to find someone politically important to meet - when I was in Berlin a while ago, I drove past the CDU headquarters, but alas no chance to stop.

Well, I stopped in the PdL Tuscany HQs (yes, they exist there!) in 2012 because the father of two of my friends was an MP at the time. :)  You can obviously find regional party offices in Florence.

That a very doable idea - thanks for the advice. ;) And I suppose PdL has to make an appearance at least!

New Demos poll:

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Approval:

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Distribution of Lega Nord and We with Salvini's vote.

()

**************************

Salvini launched a new party, "We With Salvini" (Noi Con Salvini) that is a kind of Lega of the Centre-South.

Napolitano will probably announce his resignation in the year-end speech.

()

Logo of "Noi con Salvini".

Oh Jesus Christ, Salvini is going to create a FPÖ equivalent in Italy...

The worst thing is, had Grillo been less of a moron, he could have prevented that and helped channel protest votes toward a credible left-wing alternative. Instead M5S will probably collapse within the next few months...

Veneto Poll:

Luca Zaia (incumbent, CD) 50%
Alessandra Moretti (CS) 30%
M5S Candidate 15%
Others 5%

For the time being at least things look weirdly like how they were 'supposed' to be after Mani pulite, before Forza Italia turned up.

Well, if you consider the PD to be the PCI/PDS' heir in any meaningful sense, then yeah. :P

Great to see Meloni with such a positive rating. Speaking of those ratings, I thought Vendola had stepped aside...

This Salvini guy is very dangerous. If Lega Nord seriously surpasses FI in the polls, Berlusconi surely has to realize it's time for him to go.

This is probably a naive question, but is there any chance of PD purging itself of the non-SD elements to become a bit more ideologically coherent?

That's not really the direction it's going for right now. Actually, Renzi has completely blurred the ideological picture inside the PD: the main divide is between the Renzi camp, the "old guard" (mostly old PDS stalwarts, but also many ex-DC like Bindi), and the "new left" faction led by Civati (but it's rumored that he's about to leave and found a new party).

President Napolitano is going to resign in the next days.

Edited the thread to reflect that.

Liguria CS Primary Results.
Assessor Raffaella Paita has won the primary. But Sergio Cofferati (former CGIL leader and actually MEP) hasn't conceded the race because of "alleged irregularities in the vote".

()

If M5S is so dependent on Grillo, how is it still holding up in the polls with 19% when Grillo has a horrible approval rating?

M5S support is mainly a protest vote.  There's nowhere else for those votes to go.

Napolitano will probably resign tomorrow.

Napolitano resigned.

As I am too lazy to check the Italian constitution: What will happen now? (A presidential election, I guess, but what are the rules of nomination and election?)

The President is elected by an electoral college made of all the members of the Parliament (House and Senate) along with a handful delegates from the regions. A 2/3 majority is required onthe first 3 ballots, then a simple majority is sufficient.

What are the potential candidates for new president?

Everyone and no one. At this point, there is not much besides speculations.

Italy now one step closer to a new electoral law:

ROME (Reuters) - Italy's Senate approved an amendment to a new electoral law on Wednesday, paving the way to passage of a cornerstone of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's reform programme in the upper house next week.

Renzi and centre-right opposition leader Silvio Berlusconi agreed last year to jointly back electoral changes and constitutional reforms to foster more stability and efficiency in long-dysfunctional Italian politics, but the right-left pact has encountered increasing opposition from within both parties.

With votes from both Renzi's centre-left Democratic Party (PD) and Berlusconi's Forza Italia, the amendment containing major elements of the electoral law passed 175 to 110.

(...)

A final vote on the electoral law in the Senate is expected next week. It will then need to be approved by the Chamber of Deputies before becoming law.

If passed, the electoral reform foresees a premium to the party that wins the most votes as long as that group gets more than 40 percent of the total. If no party wins 40 percent in the first round, a second round would be held pitting the top two performers against each other. The threshold for any party to get into parliament would be 3 percent.

http://www.thestar.com.my/News/World/2015/01/21/Italian-Senate-vote-gives-boost-to-Renzi-electoral-law-deal

ugh I hate majority bonuses.

Anyway something rather unsettling is happening in Italian polling. An increasing number of polls are showing Berlusconi's outfit slip below or pegging the League of Evil. I mean don't get me wrong, it is funny to see the Don being shredded in the polls. But the League?? ugh

Does the new threshold mean the end of the South Tyrol party by the way?

I actually like the new draft of the electoral system. They did away with the insane 8% threshold, introduced a share of preferential voting and gender parity, and increased the immediate majority threshold to 40%, which is respectable. I've never got why people hate majority bonuses (even the Greek system is pretty OK to me - and it's basically the Italian system without a runoff), they're still fairer than FPP or their variants.

Yeah, Salvini's new-look Lega (which is basically a FN clone) has been on the rise for months now, and it's attracting a lot of disgruntled xenophobic/Europhobic populist voters. I guess it was bound to happen, especially considering the drop in M5S support. Still extremely worrisome, of course.



I think there's still a special clause for regional parties.

What I'm not getting is for what exactly the two main blocs going to a runoff are running ? Will they be running for all seats, thus excluding every first round party from Parliament ? Or are the first seats given to every one who gets 3% in the first round, except the rest for which the two main blocs will be fighting in the runoff ? And will there be a majority bonus in the runoff as well ?

Yeah, the runoff is all about the majority bonus. Apart from that, the first round still determines the allocation of seats.

Could you or somebody else please explain the new proposal in some detail?


I think it's because they're sort of a Frankenstein of at least two different concepts for what an election should produce--'an election should produce an accurate representation of the votes cast' and 'an election should produce a stable governing majority for one political pole'. They just feel 'off' to people even though there's not really much objective reason to have a serious problem with them.

To a lot of us Europeans 'an election should produce an accurate representation of the votes cast' is the only real democratic principle. I don't think a bonus is worse than FPTP. I just find both methods abominable.

At least FPTP is about representation, majority bonuses just are about benefiting large parties.

Still a run-off provides a bit of comfort - people won't be forced to choose a party they dislike for fear of their least favourite party being allowed the bonus.

(see: Greece)

The voters cast their vote for a party list in a 5 or 6-member constituency. However, the votes are tallied at the national level. If the party that comes ahead has received more than 40% of the vote, this party gets 52% of the seats. The remaining 48% of seats is assigned proportionally to all the parties that have received more than 3% of the vote. If no party has cleared the 40% threshold, a runoff is held between the top two parties - and the winner takes the 52% seats bloc. Then among each parties seats are distributed between constituencies. Voters may express two individual preferences on the party list they have voted for (one for a man and one for a woman). The list leader selected by the party remains ahead no matter what, but the other candidates are ordered by the number of their preferences. Also, lists must alternated between genders, so that if the list leader is a man, the second must be a woman, and reciprocally.



But isn't trying to concurrently maximize two desirable goals the very essence of politics? Although I agree with Politicus that the fair representation principle is more important in the abstract, such principle can only fully prevail in "civilized" countries like the Scandinavians, where a hung parliament doesn't result in utter chaos. In Italy, full proportionality would have a catastrophic impact, and some correction is needed. But that doesn't mean we need to completely renounce to some degree of fair representation. I think that the current bill, though far from perfect, is a decent compromise in that regard.

Unlike (say) the Greek or British electoral systems, the Italicum will grant the top party an automatic majority.

Hannah Arendt wept.

That's...amazingly contorted and difficult to explain but I think I understand the reasoning behind it, and I'd say it's preferable to the other ideas that were being thrown around a while back. Thanks.

I might not have done a good job at explaining it. I'm a huge nerd for voting systems, so I might take for granted things that are pretty obscure to normal people. :P

Yes, the Greek system would be significantly better if 250 seats were divided in the first round and the bonus was then decided in a run-off between the top two. It would cost more, but would be worth it.

I would agree with Antonio that FPTP and bonus can be necessary in immature democracies, but the election system also influences the political culture. 

Is that similar to the Italian municipal elections system?

Run-off with PR just really bizarre. Has it ever been done before? I guess it could work though. The risk with such a novel system though is that it might be more easily abolished if the people in power think it's advantageous.

Actually yes, that's the closest thing that comes to mind. The only major difference is that the allocation of seats and the direct mayoral election (which determines the majority bonus) are separated. So you have a single round for party lists and a two-round uninominal election for the office of mayor. Also, the majority bonus is assigned to the coalition supporting the mayor, rather than to a single party. But it's also bigger (60% of seats).

You haven't been paying attention to Sweden much this past autumn I hear. :P


When it comes to electoral law it does seem that Italy has a preference for making things as complicated as possibly imaginable. Which of course is fun for us election geeks, but must be really confusing for the average voter. And it does inevitably seem that no matter which system you have the voters seem to hand you unstable situations anyway.

I do really think Politicus raises an important point. The political system forms the political conduct, not only for the voters but also for the politicians. The reason that things are (supposedly) more civilized in Scandinavia is because our system forces there to be broad coalitions, while politicians in Britain are incapable of compromise with the other party because they're used to either always having all the power.

I don't think this system will last. What happens for example if the Lega becomes second largest party at the next election? Southern right-wingers voting for the Lega in the run off? I do really think you guys would have been much better off by just keeping the old system and just neuter the Senate's power, alternatively reforming the senatorial electoral law.   

LOL, if this is your idea of chaos, you really need to come to Italy. :P



While this system's technical workings are very complex, I think it's still pretty simple to understand in terms of the input/output analysis. All you really need to know about it is that every party winning more than 3% will get roughly their fair share, and that the winning party (whether by getting more than 40% or by winning the runoff) will have an automatic majority. I don't think it's that hard to understand.



Mentioning Britain actually undermines your argument, considering how easily they have been able to deal with hung parliaments in the past. The same is true for Canada and many other countries that use FPP. On the other hand, there are countless examples of countries that used PR yet had parties unable to ever agree on everything (case to point, Italy's first Republic, or even worse, France's fourth Republic). Yes, it is true that the voting system does shape political attitudes and behaviors, but it's far from the only factor. And the problems that plague Italian parties have roots much deeper than the electoral system.

Even their chaos is organized and orderly in Sweden.

British politicians have historically had little difficulty dealing with hung parliaments, yes. The new Italian electoral law is awful, but (in fairness) it isn't really any worse than the joke of a system that's currently in place.* I haven't been following this as closely as I should, but is the Senate getting the heave-ho or not?

_{*I will note here my amusement that constitutional do-gooders in Italy take the exact opposite line on electoral systems to those in the UK. It's almost as if the root cause of political problems is rarely actually the voting system...}

Renzi was hoping to get a final Senate vote today. Then it will go back to the House for a simple up-or-down vote early next week. It's possible that things won't go as smoothly though, we'll see.

I would like to know what you mean with your footnote, I genuinely have no idea who the "constitutional do-gooders" are and what stance they're supposed to take.

There's a tendency amongst a certain type of constitutionally minded reformist type in Italy to believe that majoritarian electoral systems are the best electoral systems. This is the exact opposite of the line usually taken by the same sort of people here.

Oh yes, obviously, that's true. The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence, I guess. That's why I think that, overall, a compromise (ie some form of PR with majoritarian correctives) is the best answer in most circumstances. Countries that can "afford" full PR without negative repercussions are rare, especially with the current rise of the far right throughout Europe, but theoretically it remains the best system.

Forgive me for reiterating my point in a more explicit way, but a party with as little as (say) 25% public support can win an overall majority in the Italicum by simply appealling to parties that don't get an opportunity to contest the run-off. Even the second-most popular party can do this if they win the run-off! In other words, this is not a proportional system at all, and there is little use comparing it to the British system because it is worse (more extremely majoritarian) than the British system. Blair got a majority on 35% of the multi-party vote; Bersani, last time, could have got one on 25%.

Consider the following scenario next time:
PD 35%
M5S 25%
Lega 15%
Forza 15%
etc

Best-case scenario, PD earns an artificial majority with a FPTP-type vote. Worst-case, M5S gets a majority with less than one-quarter of voters behind it.

But one way or another, the winning party will have earned a majority of the vote.* Yes, it might be in the runoff, but it still gives it far more legitimacy than Thatcher or Blair ever had.

*Or rather 40%, actually. But still, that's fairly decent.

40% clause is the worst thing about this law. Why not make it 50%? No one could argue with that. 40% opens up the door to challenges of legitimacy.

It's some Danny Ortega sh!t.

What if instead of a two-party runoff, you have a one-party runoff? That way, the most-popular party will always get a majority of the vote. Not allowing parties to contest a decisive election is a bad font of legitimacy.

When the British people looked at all their options, Thatcher won over 40 per cent three times, and got three majorities; Bersani would have won an equally-effective majority with just 25 per cent in an equally-free choice in 2013.

Interesting and predictably bizarre system. But it seems more straightforward. Thanks for a good explanation, Antonio.

I don't think the most important aspect has been addressed though: how do the abroad votes get factored in?

Also, with the list preferences, even though the list leader remains the top regardless, do voters still get to vote for him or her? I guess it would be a waste of a vote but it would be strange if they could only vote for candidates 2-whatever.

Aaaaand you win the prize for the Hyperbole of the Month, congratulations! Yes, the threshold should obviously be 50%, but a 40% => 50% system isn't that big of a stretch of proportionality. Besides, the original threshold was set at 35%, so we should consider ourselves lucky.



I have no idea on both your questions. The media just don't have really examined these two aspects. Actually, it might well be that your second question indicates a loophole in the system that Renzi and Berlusconi had not even considered. :P

Another question: are the personal preferences counted at the constituency level or at the national level and then members are assigned to random constituencies (like how Berlusconi technically represented a constituency in Molise, I think, after 2006)?

There's no point having a majority bonus that kicks in at 50% because at 50% you already have a majority...

Samuel Tilden says hi. (although that was an electoral college election)

French municipal election says hi.

Examples that happen to be totally irrelevant given the context :P

Has there been much development in the presidential race?  Anyone emerging as Renzi's favored pick?

A few names have been floated around, such as Giuliano Amato (useless establishment stooge who basically held every imaginable political position except for that one and who's been pretty friendly to Berlusconi in the past), Anna Finocchiaro (useless bigwig of the PD's old guard), or Sergio Mattarella (a Constitutional Court judge coming from the Catholic centre). Longshots include Romano Prodi (who's the champion put forth the PD's left but whom Berlusconi hates), Walter Veltroni (who's perhaps too charismatic for Renzi's tastes), Pierferdinando Casini (probably the most useless and boring centrist ever) and Graziano Delrio (Renzi's right-hand man, but he lacks the institutional experience). I'm probably forgetting some, but it's not like the picture is very clear, and most names have been basically fabricated by media speculation.

Prodi would make a fine president, but the idea of him being the candidate of the left feels a bit odd. Italian politics makes for some strange bedfellows.

Antonio! :P

I have no idea, but I would assume the former.

Good. The other way is [Inks]ing horrible.

Craxi as well!

Yes, actually he started his career in the PSI as one of Craxi's lieutenants. And when he was PM in 1992-1993 he tried a few tricks to save his friends' ass.

Is there any chance of Pietro Grasso getting the gig full-time, and would anybody want him to?

Yeah, he's one of the second-tier candidates that I forgot to mention. He has good relationships both with Renzi and with the PD's left-wing, and Berlusconi surprisingly doesn't hate him either, so he might very well have a shot. But he's not talked about that much compared to the others.

He seems pretty good from what I've read about him. I'd certainly rather him than Prodi or, God forbid, Amato.

Prodi would actually make an excellent President IMO. He has the stature, the international prestige, and is one of the most upstanding and honest recent political leaders I can think of. But Berlusconi hates his guts, Renzi might fear that he would be too "activist" a President, and he himself genuinely doesn't want it (who could blame him, after the backstabbing he got in 2013?). So his chances are slim. Grasso is definitely among the better candidates as well.

Italicum passed in the Senate: 184 Aye, 66 Nay, 2 abstaining, 63 absent.

And 9 new M5S parliamentarians left the group.

Good, I guess.


Good, I guess.

What's going on with Senate reform? Is that part of Italicum or is it being put through separately?

It is separate because it's a constitutional reform, which requires a much longer procedure. I doubt it will can realistically be completed before 2016. The electoral reform should be the law of the land by March or April.

For a bit of fun, they should make Grillo President.

How about days of gridlock before Napolitano is re-elected yet again.

Fini burn too many center-right bridges to be viable for President? :P

What exactly is he up to these days anyway?

Oh don't be silly. Fini is politically dead and buried.

Tomorrow the first ballot, at 3 PM (Italy time).

1st ballot. 2/3 of assembly needed.
2nd ballot. 2/3.
3rd ballot. 2/3.
4th ballot. 1/2 + 1 of assembly needed.
5th ballot (6th, 7th, etc...). 1/2 + 1.

---

Apparently, Renzi wants to elect the President at 4th ballot, in order to be safe of the election.
In the first ballots, Lega and FdI will vote Vittorio Feltri.
Apparently, M5S is considering voting Romano Prodi (with ex-M5S, Sel and the PD's left), in order to embarass Renzi.
In these minutes, looks like that Renzi proposed at Berlusconi the name of Sergio Mattarella, but Berlusconi refused to support Mattarella.

That new system is weird but could be a lot worse I guess.

Greece's bonus isn't something I'm a huge fan of either but without it they'd never get any real results. I don't think most countries need a bonus, Germany and Netherlands do OK. Greece and Italy probably do. The worst example of pure PR with no attempts to rectify it though is clearly Israel.

Renzi met with Berlusconi today. Reportedly, Renzi proposed Mattarella and Berlusconi said no; then Berlusconi proposed Amato and Renzi said no. So we still have no real candidate today and most parties will be casting blank ballots tomorrow.

...and it turns out the PD has just officially endorsed Mattarella. Go figure.

Mattarella is backed by many of the M5S defectors as well:


http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2015/01/28/renzi-meets-with-delegation-of-m5s-defectors_f257075a-ba6c-4a49-9993-f756373fbbbe.html

First ballot on 3PM CEST. Renzi seems determined to push for Mattarella, though the right isn't pleased.

How many votes will be cast for (the corpse of) Andreotti this time?

Looks like nobody will actually be voting for Mattarella on the first ballot. The showdown will only come on the 4th, when a simple majority is sufficient. Theoretically, Mattarella already has the unanimous support of the left coalition (which has nearly 50% of the seats) and could get additional support from former M5Sers and centrists.

How'd the first ballot go?

Provisional count says 536 blank votes, 120 for Imposimato (a judge who won the M5S' online primary), 49 for Feltri (right-wing journalist who was the Lega and FdI's candidate), 37 for Castellina (SEL candidate), 23 for Rodotà, and 174 others.

Why is the right so against Mattarella? I was under the impression that he was strongly Catholic and more or less down-the-middle, and originally came from the center-left faction of DC. That seems like the profile of a basically conciliatory choice to me. Is the Berlusconist right simply not as friendly with the Catholic Church and Catholic politics as the Italian right traditionally has been? Because especially after the defection of NCD--which as I understand it includes the more Christian-democratic and social-conservative elements of the former PdL; is that accurate?--that wouldn't particularly surprise me. Does it have anything to do with the Vatican endorsing Monti in 2013? Or is it specific to Mattarella as a person?

Mattarella actually has a bit of an history of clashes with Berlusconi. He resigned from the Andreotti government in 1990 when a law was passed which legalized the situation of Berlusconi's TV networks. He was also a big fan of Oscar Luigi Scalfaro, who regularly clashed with Berlusconi during his presidency. More secondarily, he drafted the famous "Mattarellum" electoral law, in place from 1994 to 2006, which Berlusconi's government repealed when it came to power.

The interesting aspect is that, historically, the left-wing of the DC where Mattarella comes from was probably one of the most anti-Berlusconi factions of the old First Republic (after the PCI/PDS wing). Berlusconi essentially aggregated the Craxi wing of the PSI (hence why he has good relationships with someone like Amato) and the DC's right. He's always seen the Catholic Left as a significant threat, as his hatred of someone like Prodi shows.

LOL that old trick.

That's...completely unsurprising, really.

I'm still curious about my question regarding NCD.

NCD opposes Mattarella just as much as Berlusconi, actually. Alfano was reportedly quite pissed off by this choice. So I don't think that was really at play. It's not like NCD is an especially Catholic party as compared to FI, the fault lines have become very different over the last few years. Although it is allied with Casini's very-Catholic UDC, and Casini himself was rumored as a potential candidate, so he might have felt "if it's a Catholic, it has to be me".

Here's a more detailed tally.

Ferdinando Imposimato   120
Vittorio Feltri   49
Luciana Castellina   37
Emma Bonino   25
Stefano Rodotà   23
Gabriele Albertini   14
Claudio Sabelli Fioretti   11
Romano Prodi   9
Mauro Morelli   9
Massimo Caleo   8
Marcello Gualdani   6
Pier Luigi Bersani   5
Sergio Mattarella   5
Others  83
Blank  538
Invalid  33

Obligatory (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uta9sdFe2f4)

Ironically, Mattarella's profile is as similar to Scalfaro's as it could get. :P

Francesco Totti received five votes. They're invalid because he's 38 years old. The President must be at least 50 years old. :P

50 years old ? Wow, is that the most senile age floor for a political function out there ? I can't say I know of a later one.