Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: publicunofficial on October 25, 2013, 12:33:15 pm



Title: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: publicunofficial on October 25, 2013, 12:33:15 pm
Davis 43%, Brownback 39%, Third Party 12% (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=40dc3a26-36e4-4819-9dd4-21417e3bf71d&c=12)

Davis gets 25% of Republicans, probably a result of Brownback's moderate purge.


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: Maxwell on October 25, 2013, 12:48:01 pm
Oh sh**t.


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 25, 2013, 01:11:23 pm
()

Awesome news.


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: CEO of Bernie Sanders on October 25, 2013, 01:21:54 pm
is this real life


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: Miles on October 25, 2013, 01:27:25 pm
()


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: Gass3268 on October 25, 2013, 01:30:29 pm
We are still a year away, but this could be close.

Dominating!


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: Maxwell on October 25, 2013, 01:41:10 pm
To Davis' credit, he picked a good, albiet dated choice for his Lieutenant Governor candidate (Jill Docking, who got within 10 points of Sam Brownback in his first run for U.S. Senate in 1996 and a daughter-in-law of the Former governor Robert Docking). So perhaps this is where some of this is coming from.


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: publicunofficial on October 25, 2013, 02:14:42 pm
I'd imagine that a lot of the third party votes are coming from Republicans who can't stand Brownback, but can't bring themselves to vote Democrat.


Also of note: Davis gets 58% of moderates, and 75% of people who consider education to be their number one issue; which shows how badly Brownback handled that issue.


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: James Richard "Jesus" Garoppolo on October 25, 2013, 02:47:02 pm
Excellent news! Go Kansas!


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: Landslide Andy on October 25, 2013, 03:35:10 pm
So much for this being safe R!


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 25, 2013, 05:31:28 pm
:o


Well... It's time to start paying attention to this race.


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 25, 2013, 05:39:54 pm
There's a year left to go and KS is a ruby-red state.


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: Cory Booker on October 25, 2013, 05:42:35 pm
There's a year left to go and KS is a ruby-red state.

Just in case of Ct or MI with GOP candidates leading in blue states, state elections don't matter as much as prez campaigns.


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 25, 2013, 05:50:08 pm
There's a year left to go and KS is a ruby-red state.

A ruby-red state that elected a Democrat as governor (http://"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kathleen_Sebelius") in 2 of the last 3 races.


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 25, 2013, 05:52:10 pm
There's a year left to go and KS is a ruby-red state.

I would also say this, I don't expect this to last forever.


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: Cory Booker on October 25, 2013, 06:03:58 pm
There's a year left to go and KS is a ruby-red state.

I would also say this, I don't expect this to last forever.

If we see Dems like Wendy Davis or this Davis start to take leads in ruby red states, small sign that GOP may lose the House because of GOP gerrymand in Romney districts.  Kasich losing will probably signal that because the rigorous gerrymand.


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: Mehmentum on October 25, 2013, 06:37:44 pm
What's with that 12% third party vote?  The third party vote won't be nearly that large, and I suspect most of those people will end up voting for Brownback.


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 25, 2013, 07:16:26 pm
There's a year left to go and KS is a ruby-red state.

I would also say this, I don't expect this to last forever.

If we see Dems like Wendy Davis or this Davis start to take leads in ruby red states, small sign that GOP may lose the House because of GOP gerrymand in Romney districts.  Kasich losing will probably signal that because the rigorous gerrymand.

Wendy Davis will not lead in Texas, and republicans are at one of their lowest points of popularity in modern history. With a year left, I don't see how the environment won't change. I wouldn't say they are going to lose anything as of yet.


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: illegaloperation on October 25, 2013, 07:19:47 pm
There's a year left to go and KS is a ruby-red state.

I would also say this, I don't expect this to last forever.

If we see Dems like Wendy Davis or this Davis start to take leads in ruby red states, small sign that GOP may lose the House because of GOP gerrymand in Romney districts.  Kasich losing will probably signal that because the rigorous gerrymand.

It doubt that Democrats' statewide victory in Kansas (if that is the case) is much of an indication of anything nationwide.

Kansas has elected a number of Democrats for governor over the years.


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: tmthforu94 on October 25, 2013, 07:20:45 pm
Fools gold.


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: morgieb on October 25, 2013, 07:26:00 pm
Wow.

Still am unconvinced a true liberal can win here, but....


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: LeBron FitzGerald on October 25, 2013, 09:34:37 pm
There's a year left to go and KS is a ruby-red state.

I would also say this, I don't expect this to last forever.

If we see Dems like Wendy Davis or this Davis start to take leads in ruby red states, small sign that GOP may lose the House because of GOP gerrymand in Romney districts.  Kasich losing will probably signal that because the rigorous gerrymand.

Wendy Davis will not lead in Texas, and republicans are at one of their lowest points of popularity in modern history. With a year left, I don't see how the environment won't change. I wouldn't say they are going to lose anything as of yet.
Wendy Davis is a lost cause, but OC is right about Kasich. If a big liberal like Paul Davis can lead and possibly win in Kansas of all places, then I see no reason why Ed FitzGerald should have a hard time at all in swingy Ohio. Although given that, surprisingly Democrats have won more Governor's elections in Kansas than Ohio since 1990, but I still doubt that changes the likewise scenario in both situations here.

Davis and FitzGerald are both low in name recognition and because of that, the polling suggests Davis counting the 33% who might change their mind and 6% undecided is not home free yet while FitzGerald who has a 3 point lead over Kasich still has 27% of undecided voters mainly from the 62% who don't have an opinion on FitzGerald. The Medicaid expansion is widely liked, but it shouldn't help Kasich out too much especially because of HOW he passed it and he literally thinks he's St. Peter because of the expansion.

.....And I got off-track lol. But imo, right now Davis stands about as good of a chance as Ed FitzGerald in Ohio. Both of them are great, young, appealing and very liberal politicians and the key to maintaining that voter hate of the two Republican Governor's is reminding the constituents that they supported the 1995-1996 shutdown (which is true) and from what a lot of the House of Reps polls have indicated as of late, that connection goes really, really bad for any GOP politician and it's no wonder why.



Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: pbrower2a on October 26, 2013, 12:31:35 am

Incompetence and extremism can hurt any political party.


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: Maxwell on October 26, 2013, 02:11:46 am

Incompetence and extremism can hurt any political party.

To be fair, Davis is making strong opening moves.


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: hopper on October 26, 2013, 01:43:26 pm
There's a year left to go and KS is a ruby-red state.

I would also say this, I don't expect this to last forever.

If we see Dems like Wendy Davis or this Davis start to take leads in ruby red states, small sign that GOP may lose the House because of GOP gerrymand in Romney districts.  Kasich losing will probably signal that because the rigorous gerrymand.

Wendy Davis will not lead in Texas, and republicans are at one of their lowest points of popularity in modern history. With a year left, I don't see how the environment won't change. I wouldn't say they are going to lose anything as of yet.
Wendy Davis is a lost cause, but OC is right about Kasich. If a big liberal like Paul Davis can lead and possibly win in Kansas of all places, then I see no reason why Ed FitzGerald should have a hard time at all in swingy Ohio. Although given that, surprisingly Democrats have won more Governor's elections in Kansas than Ohio since 1990, but I still doubt that changes the likewise scenario in both situations here.

Davis and FitzGerald are both low in name recognition and because of that, the polling suggests Davis counting the 33% who might change their mind and 6% undecided is not home free yet while FitzGerald who has a 3 point lead over Kasich still has 27% of undecided voters mainly from the 62% who don't have an opinion on FitzGerald. The Medicaid expansion is widely liked, but it shouldn't help Kasich out too much especially because of HOW he passed it and he literally thinks he's St. Peter because of the expansion.

.....And I got off-track lol. But imo, right now Davis stands about as good of a chance as Ed FitzGerald in Ohio. Both of them are great, young, appealing and very liberal politicians and the key to maintaining that voter hate of the two Republican Governor's is reminding the constituents that they supported the 1995-1996 shutdown (which is true) and from what a lot of the House of Reps polls have indicated as of late, that connection goes really, really bad for any GOP politician and it's no wonder why.


Why are you comparing the 1995-1996 shutdown to the 2013 shutdown? 1995-1996 the issue of the shutdown not ObamaCare like it was in 2013. House of Reps is for another thread so I won't get into that here.


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: Cory Booker on October 26, 2013, 03:17:01 pm
By the end of 2014, the employer mandate will have kicked in and healthy younger workers will start contributing dropping premiums from $150 to $ 50.

But state party trends don't matter in statewide elections as they've done in prez campaigns like Synder is winning in blue MI.


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: pbrower2a on October 26, 2013, 05:32:35 pm

Incompetence and extremism can hurt any political party.

To be fair, Davis is making strong opening moves.

Competent chess players defeat incompetent ones in the first few moves.


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: sg0508 on October 26, 2013, 06:53:59 pm
Keep in mind the GOP split in KS.  There's the moderate wing that will support democrats in the general election.  See 1990 and 2002 as good examples.


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: Zioneer on October 27, 2013, 01:55:20 am

Incompetence and extremism can hurt any political party.

Well, except for a certain state a couple of states away from Kansas....


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: publicunofficial on October 27, 2013, 02:46:30 am

Incompetence and extremism can hurt any political party.

Well, except for a certain state a couple of states away from Kansas....


If you're talking about Texas, that doesn't count because the majority of Texan people are also incompetent and extreme.


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: Cory Booker on October 27, 2013, 07:25:47 am

Incompetence and extremism can hurt any political party.

Well, except for a certain state a couple of states away from Kansas....

TX also has better chance to flip than KS , large Latino vote, that's why I refered to both TX or Ks might signal dem house, as well as bellweathers OH.
If you're talking about Texas, that doesn't count because the majority of Texan people are also incompetent and extreme.


Title: Re: KS-Survey USA: Davis leads Brownback
Post by: Zioneer on October 30, 2013, 11:44:03 pm

Incompetence and extremism can hurt any political party.

Well, except for a certain state a couple of states away from Kansas....


If you're talking about Texas, that doesn't count because the majority of Texan people are also incompetent and extreme.

Nah, I'm talking about Utah. Colorado is the only state that separates Utah from Kansas geographically. Also it's more politically rigid than Texas.