Talk Elections

Velasco and I had been talking of making threads for this and that but not a general discussion thread, but I think a common thread would be more useful than a series of disperse ones.

Plus, since Julio is back and Spanish politics are getting more an dmore interesting lately what with the PSOE a few idiocies away from a harakiri on itself over the Catalan question...

And plus, the growth of UPyD and IU might finally break the old two-party system.

In other news, today, the Asturian Parliament votes on the reform of the electoral law. The reform was one of the conditions that UPyD established to support the PSOE government but it seems that the PSOE has gone back on its word and it'll vote against the reform, although the PSOE everywhere is in such a mess that perhaps they'll vote for at the last minute. And if they vote against, will UPyD abandon their first taste of 'government'?

Latest polling in Catalonia is rather shocking as well. ERC in first, C's and ICV-EUiA moving ahead of the PSC and PP... and in Valencia polling indicates a majority for the left/regionalists!

Spanish politics is absolutely fascinating atm (it always is, but what we're seeing now is really fascinating). It's a pity we can't have snap elections nationally and in every region :)

Yep. You refer to El Periódico's poll?

ERC ('left-wing' nationalism) 36-38
CiU (right-wing nationalism) 31-32
C's (vaguely centre-left constitutionalism) 16-18
PSC (nationalist and constitutionalist segments) 14-16
ICV (neutral, but support right to self-determination) 14-15
PP (right-wing constitutionalism)13-14
CUP (loony left nationalism) 6

Of course, all polls are biased to support whoever pays the newspaper. But I'd say that if this is true (and let's keep in mind that some PP voters tend to be ashamed to admit it) this is just the result of the radicalization of the politics in Catalonia and of the PSC's blandness and indecisiveness. They can't appeal to both natonalists and constitutionalists so they are losing them both. Massively.

The best part is that unless hostilities go down, Unió and Convergencia could go different ways and end their historic alliance. That could be very impressive.

Yesterday, Alfonso Guerra just proposed expelling PSC from PSOE and creating a new, clearly constitutionalist PSOE branch in Catalonia. That'd bring back many constitutionalists from Ciutadans.

Umm, yes, Valencia :D It's good. After so many years, it was about time for some political change. It's a pity that the PP didn't dislodge the corrupt Andalucian PSOE, but oh well.

()

Umm, UPyD won't support the Compromis nationalists but it would't support PP either (even if the propaganda of IU says UPyD is even worse than PP or PP lite). But it does look like PSOE-C-EUPV would have an absolute majority.

Is it possible the era of two parties is coming to an end? Maybe if we changed the electoral law at national level...

Great idea, Nanwe. I'll start with some controversy on socialists and Catalonia, just to make the thread more entertaining ;)


With the due respect, Alfonso Guerra is somewhat old-fashioned and, like many others in his party, doesn't understand what's happening with Catalonia or doesn't want to. Sadly, even the younger Carme Chacón seems anchored in 80s stereotypes as thinking that the nationalist feelings in Catalonia are a bourgeois issue, towards which the popular classes feel nonchalance. A socialist split in Catalonia might end in a disaster. It might be the disappearance of what would remain of PSC, with the leaders of the Catalanist faction migrating to other parties. Montserrat Tura is increasingly near ERC, who knows where valuable young people like Rocío Martínez-Sampere or Laia Bonet might end. The Catalan branch of PSOE would be irreversibly an irrelevant party, virtually without presence out of Barcelona Metropolitan Region -where now it's weaker than ever-, dominated by a  handful of mayors, without cadres and lacking of a proper speech, indistinguishable from the populism of Ciutadans and PP's do nothing policy. Finally, it might be the irreversible disappearance of an extremely fragile third way to solve the Catalan question. Waving up the sacred Constitution won't persuade Catalans from their desire of having their referendum. If the battle in Catalonia is fought between its proper nationalism and the Spanish one, that part of Spain will go away one day or another.

PSOE is proposing a federal reform of the constitution but, unfortunately, the party is burdened by the fear of being unpopular in the rest of Spain and its own centralist elements. Voting in favour of UPyD's motion in the Parliament, which establishes of wily form that "the right to decide belongs all the Spanish People" -it's hard to explain to foreigners, it's like referenda in Scotland and Quebec had to be voted by all British and Canadian- was -in my opinion and even if it seems odd-, a round strategical mistake. Worse still, the fact that PSC deputies were voting against might end in a sanction. Discipline of vote is an aberration in cases like this and the lack of criteria take away credibility from PSOE's federalism and proposals of reform. At this point, what can offer Spain to Catalonia to stay?

El Periódico poll is truly depressing (I don't like C's and ERC doesn't make me happy) and very interesting as well. A sample of the state of the public opinion in a society that is mutating very fast. Complete disintegration of the traditional parties. Catalonia is the first place where the Old Order is dying.

() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/577/lpm5.jpg/)

Besides corrupt, but that doesn't mean he isn't right. What is happening in Catalonia is the result of years of CiU propaganda of "Espanya ons roba" and "Spaniards are lazy scum" and of Pujolist "Catalonia is special". The difference this time being that CiU has ignited it in a time when people are prone to radicalization and as a result, they have clearly lost the control of the situation. However, I'm certain that a) there isn't going to be a referendum and b) there isn't going to be any sort of independence.


I don't see that as true. The PSC is already doomed. If you asked anyone how to say screwed in Spanish, they'd probably answer PSOE. But a more clearly centre-left constitutionalism would work to bring back voters from C's. So they might as well and try to survive until the economy gets better and Mas gets what he wants (moar money).

There is not third way. There is a need for a reform in the Spanish structure of the state to a functional federalism but what is not acceptable and it is not tolerable is to give in to the nationalists. Because when you play with cheaters, you always lose. And if the Generalitat is good at something, that is cheating. The reform of the Constitution needs to create a mechanism to impose fines on the CCAA that fail to comply with judicial decisions. Catalonia has gotten away with tons of illegal stuff because no one forces them to comply with legislation as basic as to defend the average Joe.

The so-called third way is akin to the Ibarretxe plan and it's pure and simple nonsense, just like the UK's position in the EU. They want the good but not the bad, well, they'll have to choose.

I am not opposing a referendum, for all I care, Catalans can vote and gain independence and live in Pujolistan but I resent and I think it shows the way that the Catalan government expresses itself.

The so-called third way is akin to the Ibarretxe plan and it's pure and simple nonsense, just like the UK's position in the EU. They want the good but not the bad, well, they'll have to choose.


As I've said before I agree with some of their proposals, not the one about decentralizing the judicial system. But this is the PSOE, they are all cool and dandy in opposition, then they come to power and reveal themselves as either Machiavellian (Gonzalez) or naïve (ZP).


It might have been, but it's simply natural to uphold the law and a sign of how Soraya Rodriguex is taking the PSOE to the right.

The law is to be followed, especially the Constitution. If it needs to be changed, it has to, but until then, the law is the law. I know this position is sort of polemic in some circles, but I don't care.


To Catalonia there's nothing to offer. Catalonia doesn't exist, it's a mental construct. Catalans on the other hand can be offered many things: Political stability, a larger market, a more independent judiciary system, the euro, membership in the EU and a check on CiU and ERC's government's tendency to do illegal things.


To the second post, C's is a decent party, a response to the PP's limited social appeal and the PSC's collapse due to their ambiguity. ERC on the hand I despise. They could kill their own mothers if someone promised them in return an independent Catalonia. They aren't left-wing, they are just nationalistic, and anything and everything can be sacrificed in exchange. That level of fundamentalism is sickening.

EDIT: Umm, this post came off as angry. Well, I suppose I'm indignant with situation.

Well, your reply is an example of what many people outside Catalonia thinks about what's going on. I'm not going to defend the traditional Catalan nationalism which CiU represents, but anyway. It's true that there's some arrogance in certain Catalans (though I don't think that's the general attitude) and, certainly, the "Espanya nos roba" slogan is pure demagoguery. However, it's a huge oversimplification claiming that nationalist propaganda is the origin of the problem. That "radicalization" is the result of multiple factors: social changes, evolution of the Catalan nationalism from reformist stances to sovereignism, a huge feeling among Catalans of all tendencies of being misunderstood and battered by Spain... Don't forget that in parallel with what you call "years of CiU propaganda", the Spanish right (PP and friendly media) has launched anti-Catalan campaigns in the rest of Spain. Also, the sentence of the (partisan) Constitutional Court on the Catalan Statute angered many people. Dissafection is the natural consequence.

Why do you take for granted that there isn't going to be a referendum nor Catalan independence? I don't have a crystal ball, but for sure if a massive portion of Catalan wants a referendum and Spain doesn't give it to them, resentment will grow. When one of the two in a couple wants to go, the marriage usally ends in divorce.

By the way, Alfonso Guerra is not the corrupt. It was his brother.


PSC may be doomed. Anyway, that center left "Constitutionalism" wouldn't suppose any difference with PP and the Rivera troupe in the eyes of center left Catalanists (note that it's not exactly the same that "nationalists", even when there's an overlap). A party like that will be marginal in Catalan politics. Of course, there's a need to reform the territorial structure in a functional way, but it won't work if you don't consider the regional identities (I mean Catalan and Basque, but not only). "When you play with cheeters" is another example of what is going wrong. If you want to keep the country united, you'll have to consider two facts:

a) Spain is diverse and there are national/regional identities inside her.
b) Peripheral nationalism exists and it's not possible to marginalize it. You are condemned to negotiate, perhaps a to a permanent negotiation.

The pretension of that difuse Third Way is looking for the solution of the sudoku. Supporters of Catalan independence and Spain's centralism deny that possibility. It goes in the interest of the most fervent partidaries of independence the failure of an alternative way. I don't understand that comparison with the Ibarretxe plan. Some well intentioned proposals may have flaws, but I don't see the connection between PSC and the former lehendakari, to give an example.


That's right. You have to observe the law. Anyway, that's not the point of the UPyD motion in the Congress. In fact, you don't need to approve a text that repeats what Spain's Constitution says on national sovereignty. That motion was simply a nationalist proclaim and Rubalcaba ceded before Guerra, Chaves and other PSOE "constitutionalists". It wasn't Soraya.

Btw, don't worry if we have different opinions on this and other issues.

I know, heck my parents participated in that bullsh**t about not buying Catalan products when the Estatut controversy. But the things is that the Catalans, even if they feel that way (which ofc is what counts), aren't misunderstood or ignored or anything. That's mostly empty talk.

TBH, I can't remember all the fuzz about the Estatut so I don't remember, but there was polemic stuff about language use and right to determination or what not? I just don't think teaching integrally in Catalan is tolerable, besides not legal.

I still fail to grasp the desaffection. Catalans aren't oppressed, and while the economic situation is bad, it's the fault of their governments (tripartito mostly) not of the rest of the country. To me it looks like the rest of Spain is a scapegoat for their troubles.


Well, I'm of the opinion that CiU is using the referendum as a tool. It'd be best for CiU to be denied the referendum as to still have it as a tool for future years about how Spain was evil and didn't let it happen. I know that a large part of the people want it, but keep in mind that most Spaniards have a centralist mentality, that's a) and b) that the majority of the political class is pretty much self-absorbed.

Why do I assess it this way? CiU seems to be on the break of dissolving due to internal differences between Duran i Lleida (Unió) and Mas (CDC), the PP is clearly but slowly moving towards finding a common position with Mas and he has also toned down his rhetoric and even has started to dismiss the issue of the referendum.

Besides, they won't go to a referendum unless they would be certain that their most favoured result happens, whether it is losing by a large margin or winning by a large margin. Right now, iirc, the majority of people polled have only become more souveranist recently and are considerably less so if Catalonia were to leave the EU (which is what would happen if they left Spain). I am pretty sure that while support for the referendum might remain high in the future, support for independence is going to go down.


I know that, the case Guerra and what not. But it's not like Gonzalez's 12 years weren't the most corrupt period in our recent history (post-Franco, obviously)





I actually think that it could. Many of these people, who lives in Barcelona's metropolitan area and are sons of immigrants and now vote C's because they don't feel at home in the PSC anymore could very well return. Of course, the last time PSOE tried to go into Catalonia without the PSC (was it 1977?) it ended up badly...

What do you mean by 'consider the regional identities'? If you mean what I think it does, a federal structure with clear-cut structures would be good. To me, Spain is clearly a plurinational state with further nacionalidades inside Castille's nationhood of sorts (doesn't help the provincialism of most Castillians, the patria chica and what not) but one of equals. Catalonia or the Basques should not be special, so the Basque's concierto should most likely be given to all CCAA and we should probably absorb some of the smaller CCAA into the bigger ones, although that's too courageous a decision.

But the regions, Catalonia too, have to follow the law, even their own law, in many cases the Generalitat ignores what the TSJC dictates so... I see a lot of fanaticism and lack fo respect for the imperio de la ley in the Generalitat.


Actually: check this (http://vozpopuli.com/actualidad/33920-susana-diaz-impuso-a-rubalcaba-el-choque-con-el-psc-en-la-polemica-sobre-el-derecho-a-decidir). Sorry it was Soraya Díez. I get confused with all the Sorayas...

"Hay que enviar un mensaje claro a toda España de que estamos con la Constitución”.

All in all, with this situation I suffer a duality, on the one hand the possibility of secession worries me a lot. On the other hand, God, how I'm enjoying seeing the PP and PSOE crumble away piece by piece.

----

On other news, UPyD has ended its support for the PSOE after they voted against the proposed reform of the electoral law in the region. Now PSOE-IU have a minority and 22 seats, the same as PP-Foro Asturias. Coalition politics at its best. Who'd have thought this thing could happen in Spain?

Article here: El País (http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2013/11/01/actualidad/1383313675_822196.html)

I don't have much (anything!) to add, but this is a really fascinating discussion :)

It's pretty obvious when you talk with Catalans or when you go there. It's not empty talk at all. Many Spaniards know nothing about how Catalans are and judge them on stereotypes: "Catalans are stingy", "Catalans are cadging" (when conversation is about Catalan demands). There's a big incomprehension and this factor is arguably in the origin of the problem. Furthermore, even when claims like "Spain is stealing us" are demagogic, there's a grain of truth in them as regional financing is unfavourable to Catalonia.


Even if Mas wanted to go back, the pressure of Catalan society might force him to go ahead. Nowadays CiU governs in minority with ERC confidence and supply. Every time Artur Mas insinuates a delay in the common sovereignist agenda, ERC comes behind to make clear that the calendar is non negotiable. Apparently there were contacts between Rajoy and Mas under the table. By the moment, nothing has changed. PP and CDC maintain their respective nationalist stances, the first under the "constitutionalist" camouflage. The collision course is far away from being stopped. As for Durán, if Mas is in a weak position, it's still worse for the UDC leader. Durán has the support of some businessmen, but he's very unpopular and CDC militancy hates him for being a traitor. Furthermore, if CiU breaks down, it will be ERC who is going to gather the pieces together. Polls say they might be the major partners in a future nationalist government.

I'd like to think that letting things go their course, the "independence soufflé" will go down again. However, that theory has been denied by reality several times. Remember the last Diada: that impressive human chain across Catalonia.


That assertion has been denied by Bárcenas, Francisco Camps, Jaume Matas, the Duke of Palma (the infamous Urdangarín) and some other examples. Not to mention Jesús Gil and Marbella. Guerra's brother and the good Roldán turn pale in comparison. The several corruption scandals in the González era lack of the magnitude of the Gürtel and Bárcenas cases. Corruption in Costa del Sol, Valencia and other places was a product of the real estate bubble, which started by 1998, under the Aznar administration.


Ah, the two Sorayas ;)... But the news that you linked mentions Susana Díaz, the woman that replaced Griñán as Andalusian PM. Notice that Guerra and Chaves are from Andalusia, the main power base for PSOE. I've read there this sentence by some socialist deputies: " How is it possible that that we could think of abstaining in an offer that the only thing that it does is to defend the Constitution?" I think many socialists have fallen in the rhetoric trap of Rosa Díez. UPyD leader stated that she didn't want to hurt PSOE. I can't believe in her innocence. Everybody in Catalonia understands this as a proclaim of Spanish nationalism. For me it's troublesome, to say the least.

To be honest, the last time I went to Catalonia I was 6 or so, so I couldn't say. But the thing to me, is that culturally, Catalonia is probably closer to Valladolid or Madrid or Burgos than Andalucia, so besides the language barrier, I've never seen such large differences. Using stereotypes is wrong, but Catalans also use them and tend to be the kind of "Spaniards are lazy".

Of course the regional financing system is weird, but back in 1996 when the PP negotiated with PNV and CiU the concierto in exchange for voting in Aznar's favour, the PP offered the same deal to the Catalan government and they rejected it. The system is just messed up, it makes no sense for rich CCAA like the Basques and Navarrese gain money from the funds. Rich regions, should give money to the poorer ones. Even the Catalan government recognizes that, but some of the arguments of the Catalans, like limiting the movement of funds never being more than a 4% (of the regional GDP? I don't remember 4% of what atm), are more limited that those in the German federal system. And while people can accept a federal Spain, a confederal model is not so easy to accept, especially when the Catalans are being seen as selfish and capricious. The selfish part I understand it's common to all, it's not like Madrid's government isn't being dickish. But the capricious part is much more clear, but I suppose that it's the result of how there is no limit to the competences CCAA can gain.

I think that from now on, the government should try to be more appealing to Catalans, try to make them see that Spain is there for them too and that the politicians care. Back in the 70s, the national leaders used Catalan in Catalonia and even when Aznar was said to use Catalan in private, feeling were positive. So I suppose that even aesthetic changes of this sort could help a lot to make Catalans feel at home in the madre patria (nationalist expression indeed, but I couldn't resist :D )


It's true that for the moment nothing has changed, but I do think that slowly everyone is coming together. The charade part of everyone speaking loudly to appease their voters is coming to an end and now it's time to negotiate and sit down.

But it's true that ERC is the true problem here, as the nationalist positions have hardened, ERC, as the most radical nationalist party than isn't entirely nuts (unlike SI or CUP) it's going to grow. But since according to most polls and research a large motivation is economic, if an agreement between Rajoy and Mas is achieved, and I'm sure it will whether by action or inaction (Rajoy being Rajoy, a mix of both).

CiU is more a part of the big business than even the PP and the Catalan entrepreneurial class has already spoken against independence, that is going to be very important to keep in mind, CiU will have to give in if they want to continue with their support, since their social policy (cuts that make the PP look like IU) and corruption cases (Pallerols,  ITV, Palau, Clotilde, Adigsa cases) are eroding their popular support.

Duran is not a traitor though. He represents Unió, and Unió is too conservative to want independence. Unió is probably the most proper conservative party of Spain because the PP is always mixing right-wing populism, neoliberalism, Thatcherism, nationalism and Christian democracy in a weird mishmash to appeal to both the urban middle classes and the conservative segments of society.


The problem here is that the Catalans against independence have only very rarely spoke up, for fear of being signalled out as Francoists or españolistas. While I don't deny the large support for independence, the Catalan is, according to polls, very divided on this issue and it doesn't help that position favourable to Spain are still seen poorly by society, and not just the Catalan society.


Sorry, I meant to say administration. While it's obvious that corruption became (more) commonplace during 1998-2007 at a regional and local level, I would argue that Aznar's government reduced the corruption at the national level of the administration. Obviously the party is corrupt, but they did reduce the corruption in the civil service. The corruption stemming from the 1998 reforms can't be entirely be attributed to the PP, in part because many city councils and regions were governed by the PSOE and because the PSOE did nothing to change the situation after 2004. It's not like the PSOE is innocent either and the case of the EREs in Andalucia just show how corrupt they are too.


Well the PSOE has to walk a very tight rope, PSC and PSOE-A are the main federations, especially now that the PSOE is pretty much outside of government in the rest of Spain and it isn't too likely they'll get into any government for a while. Andalucia is clearly against referendum or concessions, they need the money and since most Catalan attacks have gone against Andalucians it's understandable they are less inclined to be nice. Mas said publicly that no one understands Andalucians when they speak. That really is offensive, it's one of those things you don't say, even if you think it.

I think we need the opinion of an insider, so where's Julio when you need a PSOE apparatchik (:P) to be to give his opinion and give us the perspective from inside Madrid' PSOE? It's the regional federation to be most affected by UPyD's meteoric rise in the polls.

Well, you know I'm a UPyD supporter and probably a member if I were living in Spain. But of course she's not innocent, if she were, she wouldn't be in politics, she'd be working for Caritas. This was clearly a way to increase division in the PSOE and make the party more appealing to people unhappy with the PSOE's ambiguous, even contradictory policy in this field, who are not so willing to give in to Catalan demands but who would most likely never, or only if very hardly pressed, vote PP.

One problem with your assessment, I'd think, is that you are identifying Catalonia as a victim that needs to be appeased. But, I think that here there is not victim, and no appeasement, what is needed is a radical change in Spain, and Catalonia is a part of Spain, one that finally and at least for the next 20 years or so can placate the constantly re-emerging identity debate. I need to write down a series of proposals I have in my head for said restructuring, but that takes time.

On a different topic, I have decided to restart my idea for the whole Spain including Portugal thing once again, but this time more professionally, so I'd love some help.

Absolutely not. I don't think Catalans are victims. However, they have been badly treated by some in the rest of Spain. What most of them reclaim is more respect and understanding. Even our hard right Thatcherite Esperanza Aguirre cynically admits that we need to take a more charitable view of Catalan people. I can't imagine greater hypocrisy. Besides the nation's main joker, Cristóbal Montoro, states that we need to be "tactful" on the Catalan question. At least Rosa Díez is more honest expressing her views, such as peripheral nationalists are "cheaters" and attempts of approaching stances with them are "appeasement". I don't believe in the moral superiority of Spain's nationalism/constitutionalism. As I said above, it will never be possible a change of the territorial structure without taking into account certain singularities of some parts of Spain. What UPyD is proposing on the subject is basically a complete uniformity. It won't work in a country heterogeneous in nature. It will have to be some asymmetry. Some regions will never accept anything by imposition or a cut in their autonomy and competences.

Can you give details of your project about Spain and Portugal?

Alright, I got that feeling because you differentiated in your last post between Catalans and Spaniards and that seemed strange to me. Actually the badly treated aspect is something I'm not too certain about, could you provide some examples? (I'm serious, not being sarcastic).

I can understand that Spain is heterogeneous but the problem is that the current system is unfair to all because of undue influence by CiU and PNV in government. The thing is that from my point of view, there is no need for special treatment, because no matter the language, everyone is Spanish, and while this is some sort of non-Castillian-based vision (even though it's hard to be more castellano than me :P)of Spanish identity that most people don't share, it's not a bad one. It's time to redefine being Spanish, 1/5 of all Spaniards speak Catalan, into a flexible and accepting identity not castrated by the phantom of Franco.

That's where I disagree with UPyD I'm fine with retaining education and healthcare in the regional level, I think that under the subsidiarity principle (one the best products of Catholic political thinking) education is important to be autonomous, non-comprehensive and close to the local people as it serves best to adapt itself to a community's needs. Not so sure about healthcare, that might be best run at a national level... I just want people to respect the law and for the state to have coercive powers if they fail to.

Perhaps adding some sort of mechanism in the Constitution that while allowing no further extension of powers to the regions (not like there's much more to delegate or devolve), it could allow regions, through referendums, to return powers to Madrid.

And meh, Aguirre is just trying to play high politics because she knows that Rajoy is crumbling and she has wanted his post since before she was born. There's indeed a need to be tactful, but do keep in mind that UPyD appeared in the Basque Country and as a result it is a party much more involved in the identity conflict than either PP or PSOE or IU.

About the whole thing with Spain and Portugal I'll PM you.

Alright, Nanwe.

Changing topic. Aznar publishes his memories. He tells that he entrusted CNI (Spain's intelligence agency) a report on the 2004 Madrid train bombings, which wasn't conclusive on the responsibility for the terrorist attack. Basically, CNI's director Jorge Dezcallar wrote that Spanish intelligence was clueless and didn't detect signals of the authorship. Given that ETA terrorist group had plenty of infiltrated agents, it would have been strange that CNI had not could detect anything from that side. By that time Aznar and his Interior minister, Ángel Acebes, sustained that ETA was behind the massacre. Later on, once Zapatero was in office, a media campaign was launched to question the judicial investigation. About Zapatero's investiture speech says the following:  "Investiture. Zapatero's speech in a Zapatero's tone of which already one sees the bottom: dialog, more dialog, only dialog, opposite to my omnipotence and authoritarianism". Opening Pandora's box:  " He opens all the problems without closing any: constitutional reform, reform of the statutes, antiterrorist setback. Clear attitude of trying to isolate the PP: all against the PP. About economy, he doesn't speak; homosexual marriage, equality, etc. I overturn in foreign policy. The retreat of the troops in Iraq is not mentioned ". On Zapatero's talante (good mood, liberal-minded): it's a "new silliness" of the progressive mentality of the political correctness. I adore this man ;D

Aznar is right in that Zapatero did isolate the PP, but it's not like the PP weren't a bunch of sore losers that whenever ZP said yes, they said no, and if he said no they said yes. It became a reflex for them.

Zapatero did open the Pandora box to a point, but it's not like Aznar hadn't done it in 1996 either, so that's typical PP hypocrisy when it comes to dealing with the nationalists.

In all other fronts, that's silly. The CNI is incompetent, but that much...?

Can someone give a summary of the last PSOE leadership race?

The last one? Well, back in 2000, with the 35th Congress, there were three candidates: Zapatero, sort of Third Way, social liberalism (also supported by guerristas, the left-wing of the establishment); José Bono, socially more conservative and the establishment candidate (supported by Chaves and the felipistas) and Rosa Díez, now leader of UpyD.

This article is really good: in Spanish though (http://elpais.com/diario/2012/02/03/espana/1328223607_850215.html).

In 2011, there was this idea (read: propaganda) to have a race between Rubalcaba and Chacón but she decided to retire from the possibility of entering the race and Rubalcaba simply was hailed as new leader.

Mind you, this is better than the PP though, they don't even bother with sham conventions :p

Catalonia again. Interesting poll in El País today.

http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2013/11/02/catalunya/1383418112_808082.html

31% wants independence; 17% wants the statu quo (current autonomic state with the same competences); 40% wants the "third way" (whatever it means) and more devolution.

*The "third way" has support among moderate catalanist voters, but it has different meanings. PSC identifies it with a federal reform of the Constitution, whereas moderates in CiU favour a confederation (more or less, the Durán i Lleida thesis). According to the poll, it has a great support among PSC (65%) and ICV (44%) voters and among a sizable portion among Cs (39%), CiU (36%) and PP's (31%). Only 18% among ERC voters.

El País asserts in its editorial: "the third way goes forward".

If the referendum question is "yes" or no" to independence, secession wins 46%/42%. In the assumption that independence supposes that Catalonia will be out of the EU 48 % would vote against.

ERC and CDC support a referendum including only the "yes" and "no" options. However, there's controversy on the inclusion of a third option, which create tension inside the CiU coalition. PP is confident that these divisions will abort the sovereignist process, but CiU warns that this benefits ERC and it will be more difficult for the Spanish government to negotiate with a Catalan administration presided by Oriol Junqueras.

Vote intention:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/11/01/media/1383329614_146328.html

Catalan elections: ERC 23.2% (37 seats); CiU 19.4% (32); C's 15.3% (21); ICV-EUiA 10.5% (14); PSC 8.4% (13); PP 7.5% (12); CUP 4.9% (6).

General elections: CiU 21.5% (14 seats); PSC 17.8% (9); ERC 16.5% ( 8 ); PP 15.5% (9); ICV-EUiA 12.1% (5); C's 6.4% (2).

(I think there's a thread somewhere about the last socialist race between Rubalcaba and Chacón).

Secession will not happen.


Anyway, I'm kind of surprised that Rajoydi survived the sobre-sueldos scandal. It was something that you could expect from inherent corrupt countries as Argentina, but not Europe.

PSOE is still the lesser evil.

PSOE is just as bad and Andalucia is the perfect example:the  PER designed to create clients among the rural population, the huge ERE scandal in which funds for fake early retirements were used to pay party members and their families and even for party members to use drugs...

Surprised? He's a PP politician. It's a party designed around the leader and which allows no internal dissent, you are either in or out.

Sadly, corruption scandals rarely affected elections. Francisco Camps in Valencia is a clear example. Nowadays crisis makes corruption more intolerable. PP support is declining in the polls, but its voters mainly go to abstention instead of to other parties.

As for the Rural Employment plan (PER) in Andalusia, such claims of clientelisc practices are truly old. Furthermore, they are irritating for some Andalusians, depicted by certain media in Madrid as brainless subsidy collectors. PER was designed to relieve the situation of the laborers in the Andalusian countryside. They are thousands of persons who the half of the year are employed by several landowners in the harvest time. Often they move to other regions or even to France. The other half of the year they don't have employment. You have at least three options: you can withdraw the subsidy from the laborers and they will starve, you can maintain it in order that they survive or you must collectivize the land ;D

Also, the ERE scandal is sickening, but it's confined to Andalusia. Nothing to do with the colossal magnitude of the Bárcenas/Gürtel scandals, which affect PP national structure. If I have to weigh corruption in both parties, it's clear which one is the lesser evil.

Or a fourth and my preferred idea. Split the latifundii into smaller plots and create a program for investment to develop a high-value agriculture with a double aim: Take voters away from the PSOE (:D) and increase the wealth in southern Spain, à la Almería. It's like going back to the 20s-30s plans of agrarian reform.

I have wondered though why corruption has never been a bigger issue. I suppose that because most people tended to benefit prior to the crisis to the government's neglect in some areas?

I know all the corruption issues of the Andalucía's PSOE (that's what happens when you are in government since the 70s) but still, I prefer them before LA CAVERNA PEPERA.

Also, do you really believe Rajoy has full support from his party? What about Esperanza Aguirre and her allies in the media? I mean, even Intereconomía group was attacking Rajoy when Bárcenas went rogue.

As a liberal (in the normal sense of the word, not the yank definition) I guess I should support UPyD but I don't believe they are able to be the government and not just another opposition party.

Good question: What would have happened if Chacón defeated Rubalcaba in the PSOE's leadership election? She was very sympathetic with the "federalist" idea...

()

Funniest headline ever.

That doesn't matter. The next PP Congress will be held in 2016 so until then unless there's a rebellion within the Cabinet nothing will come of it. All PP barones (except Madrid's Ignacio Gonzalez, and even he is less anti-Rajoy than Aguirre) and important members are pro-Rajoy. Aguirre and Aznar have support among the hard right base, but the PP is not the GOP, no one gives a sh**t about the bases except during the electoral campaign.

Intereconomia and related have been attacking Rajoy since 2004 when they call him "maricomplejines" (Mariano the pussy, very liberal translation)


Well, if we were to go by that logic, then only PP and PSOE wuld ever be elected because the rest of the Parliament is in permanent opposition. By just looking at the polls, UPyD and IU ae going to play important roles in the future parliament, whether by entering coalitions, supply and confidence deals or by being blocked by a grand coalition.

Also, funnily enough, in Spain, liberal is a term used by the hard right to refer to themselves. People who are much closer to libertarianism, Thatcherism and/or GOP fanboys tend to classify themselves as liberales.

That was Jiménez Losantos, when he was still in "La Mañana" of La COPE.



Yeah, I know. When I was a kid (with Aznar as President) I used to chat in #politica of the irc-hispano (i was even an elected moderator xD). And ALL the fascist creeps of hazteoir et al called themselves "liberales". It was disgusting.

You don't have to tell me :P, my father listened to it regligiously every morning.

But Losantos and Intereconomia are very close, although I'd say Losantos is more of a Spanish nationalist than a hardline rightists such as those in Intereconomia. They'd be closer to Cesar Vidal, I'd say.

Jiménez Losantos is very hard right and a Spanish nationalist. César Vidal and Pio Moa are revisionist pseudo-historians (neo Francoist). All of them write in the 'liberal' Libertad Digital . Losantos and Moa were in the far left when they were young, the first was Maoist and the second was in the GRAPO terrorist band. Nowadays they represent in the media the far right and they support PP hard liners such as Mayor Oreja, María San Gil or Esperanza Aguirre.

On a side note, Rosa Díez was acclaimed in the UPyD convention, just finished. "(Rosa) Díez boasted today without half-tones of the voting in the Congress of Deputies last Tuesday that divided PSC and PSC on the right to decide of Catalonia. 'This group of five deputies has taken from the lapel to both principal parties and has achieved that 286 deputies say that the unity of the nation is indissoluble', she cried out". Actually Rubalcaba was thinking to abstain in the voting of the UPyD motion until hours before it was taking place, but he received pressures and changed of opinion in the last moment, as indicates Iñaki Gabilondo. PSC, except Carme Chacón, kept faithful to the previous agreement and abstained. It was PSOE who broke, not the hapless catalan socialists. A victory for Díez, undoubtedly, and a sample of Rubalcaba's weakness not to resist the pressures of outstanding members of his party. Cowardice.

PSOE is going to hold a political conference next weekend, where the Catalan question will be carefully avoided. On July PSOE had a meeting in Granada in which it was approved its proposal of a federal constitutional reform, not without tension between Catalan socialists and other regional leaders. On Constitutional reform Ramón Jáuregui states: "The 2011 defeat demands examination and rectification". "In addition, the world has changed, the left  needs to check its parameters and the problems of the Spanish society are not also those who formed the socialdemocratic projects in the last 35 years. All of that forces PSOE to lead a reformist process in Spain, something similar to what Felipe Gonzalez proposed in 1982". They will be examined new proposals on fiscal and economic policies ( among others, a new tax on wealth, suppression of some tax exemptions and taxes for the banks), 'democratic regeneration' (semi-opened lists, referenda by citizens' initiative...), etcetera. Former IU members -some linked to Gaspar Llamazares- and ex-super judge Baltasar Garzón will take part actively in the conference. They wrote a manifesto or open letter calling for a regeneration in the left. A paragraph as sample:

"Our goal is the defeat of the right, that is taking advantage of the crisis to push to unemployment and marginalization to wide sectors of the society, specially the the most fragile. The young, women, the older than forty five years, as well retired and pensioners, are suffering with cruelty the devastation of the Rajoy government. Together to this conscious deterioration of the social advances, the Executive has left in the ditches of oblivion the victims of the dictatorship and avoids the recovery of our memory, key element for the reunion with our dignity as people. While, the same government protects the interests of the powerful, relying ideologically on the most conservative sectors of the society. Now is urgent and indispensable to revert the destruction of rights that the People's Party is executing across the cuts in wages and benefits, education, health, social services, equality, abortion, etc. To fulfill this goal we all need, with independence of our past of successes and shared mistakes"

http://ep00.epimg.net/descargables/2013/11/02/1e9e88d56cf41e7658c846f9eebec660.pdf

So Izquierda Abierta is finally slowly drifting away from IU, now controlled once again by the PCE, towards the PSOE?

Also, interesting proposals but I don't trust the PSOE. And the inclusion of Garzón is outright disgusting. I really, really dislike Spain's most overrated and politicized judge. Judges that work diligently and without caring about the cameras (like Alaya and Ruz) should be applauded, but media whores like Garzón should be reprimanded, luckily he has.

Though I'd like to see the supposed reforms in a more clear way when they present them. I'm not a big referendum fan, however.

Also, I love how the PSOE always forgets what it does in government when in opposition, it's not like the policies of Rajoy weren't initiated by Zapatero. As Pedro J. said, quousque tandem abutere, Zapatero, patientia nostra? It's being taken out of context, of course, although the article itself was marvellous just in how good a writer Pedro J. is.

Regardless what you think about super judge Garzón, he was the object of a disgusting vengeance by his peers, plenty of resentment, partisanship and corporate spirit. Alaya, for her part, has a curious sense of political opportunity and she's not better than Garzón in the formal aspects of preliminary investigations. Among mediatic judges, I give more credit to Ruz in what regards working quietly. 

Pedro J is a good writer when he wants, indeed. However, I suspect he's forgetting intentionally some differences between Zapatero and Rajoy. Some measures the latter is adopting, in order to dismantle public education and the National Health System, have an obvious ideological motivation. Zapatero had never gone so far. And it's true, often PP and PSOE forget what both promise before elections.

Hi, compañeros!! Now I have some time to read this... I'll say something before I read (and then post my opinions):

-I'll be on the "political conference" of the PSOE. I'm excited to hear what they have to say, specially now that  two people I really like have supported it: that is, Pilar del Río and Baltasar Garzon. I met José Carrillo just a month ago, in the tribute of Gervasio Puerta, the president of th "Association of anti-franquist prisioners", who happened to be my neighbor, too. Carrillo was nice to me and he seemed very left-wing (some students of the Complutense University had told me he wasn't...). He has also supported the Conference. And Carme Chacón is going to be there, too. Even if PSOE has told the media they won't talk about Catalonia... I think they will (and I hope they do, people are begining to understand what Federalism means).

-The last Catalonian poll means that PSC has a lot of room to grow and that they can recover with a new team... Not that I don't like Pere Navarro, his problem is that Catalonians are not eager to give him a chance.

-I'm fully supporting Edu Madina now. I think he's the kind of guy the left needs to win back the Government. Very humble, very prepared, and loquacious. And a "hero" in the sense that he kept fighting after the attempt.

-I don't think Rubalcaba is going to be a candidate in the primaries... I've talked to same close allies of him and they feel the same way. Rumours are that Patxi López will be the establishment pick. I like Patxi too, but right now I'd vote for Madina (I've switched my 1st preference from Biden to Gillibrand, too :P, and from PT to PSOL hahaha...).

-Here in Madrid people I talk to (PSOE and IU members) are convinced Tomás Gómez will be the next President, with IU and with or without UPyD. In my town, San Sebastián de los Reyes, we've had a "Citizens Assembly" in which the 3 main parties of the opposition -PSOE, IU, Izquierda Independiente-, many citizens and some other organizations have started to create a common electoral programme for the elections of 2015. We are pioneers on this idea, I think it's a great one! Here you have the links

http://asambleaciudadanasanse.wordpress.com/

http://asambleasanse.foroactivo.com/

The Assembly of the 18 of October was followed by more than 200 people, and we have divided it on groups: Social, Politic and Economics, with some areas of work such as Education, Jobs, Health... I'm going to organize the Education section with a member of PCE-IU. The leader of UPyD in Sanse came to the last meeting (the "Politics" one). He said "we, the parties of the left...".

I'd add Grande Marlasca but I haven't heard about him in quite a while.

About Alaya and tbh nowadays I only follow national news and from abroad so I couldn't say about her. I just like the courage to bring down the system.

Which leads me to Garzón. I think that trying to do good for the victims of the war and the post-war is good. Now that does not mean that that condones (imho) the illegal wiring of conversations and in particular all the political positions he has taken over the years. And while he is not the only one (c'mon, the magistratura can't be independent considering the system for appointing the CGPJ or the Supremo or the Constitucional), he clearly is the most outspoken. Interestingly, I'm very conservative when it comes to legal stuff, but well, in any case


So we agree in pretty much everything except the dismantling thing :P

The whole "they are dismanting education" is also used in the right to claim that the PSOE wants to make children dumber so they vote PSOE (oh boy, how many times have I heard that one). The new law is probably never going to be applied and in my opinion it introduces some interesting factors and some bad ones, but I am of the opinion that a reform should be done to move away from comprehensive education and into a more divided education system (à la Germany or NL).

As to the education, while cuts are being considerable, I don't think they are trying to dismantle it. That's something really unfair to say. Even from a purely malicious perspective as to their actions, they'd never dismantle a system that benefits one of their core voters: old people.

Madrid has spearheaded the introduction of private hospitals in the system of public healthcare. It's done in other countries. I don't think it's necessary as our current system is fairly good as it is, pretty efficient considering how some CCAA are ridiculously small. But if they can prove it works better, I'm ok with it. Since so far no one has said anything in favour nor against with hard facts (or I haven't seen them), I'm interested in seeing what'll happen.

And now. I swear tomorrow I'll put up some rough guideline to my messy, "transversal" (not a UPyD reference, I swear) mind.

Also Julio, interesting. But are there still people named Gervasio? :O

I didn't study laws and I can't say if phone tapping was correct from a legal point of view. If I remember well, the Public Prosecutor's Office said that it was. Anyway, I suspect the main problem with the super judge were his political stances and the overwhelming conservatism of our judiciary. For Pedro J and right-wing media Garzón was a hero when he investigated GAL, but rather annoying when he sought for Pinochet's extradition or prosecuted PP's corruption in Valencia and Madrid. Double standard, as usual.


PSOE and PP were on the edge of reaching an agreement on education policies when Ángel Gabilondo was the minister. PP chose to break negotiations for electioneering reasons (and many suspect because of its contra-reformist agenda). Everybody, even from subsidized private schools ("escuelas concertadas") criticize the cruelty of Wert's proposals on final examinations. Not to mention heavy rises in tuition fees and in the ratio of pupils per classroom and ideological measures such as the reintroduction of religion in the curriculum, attacks on Catalan as the vehicle language in education (in spite of the right's claims, it works well and people there is overwhelmingly bilingual, but Wert wants to "hispanicize" everybody) and public funds for schools that segregate by sex. PP's policies always tend to increase subsidies for private schools, withdrawing funds from the public.

I've read little on Wert's projects for professional training and more about his idea of "educational routings". Some people think that a 13 year old kid is too young to choose his (her) vital project. A system that doesn't allow you to change your route may be unfair. In Germany professional training works pretty well and many would want to import some elements of the system. However, its main disadvantage is that it doesn't favour social mobility, because people is professionally orientated from early dates. Anyway, educational projects need funds, political agreement and dialog with fathers, teachers and all the educational community. It's impossible to argue in favour of Wert's ability to negotiate, disposal to dialog or even emotional intelligence. Funds are nonexistent.


You don't need the Madrid 'experiment' to see what happens. 'Experimental' hospitals with private management failed miserably in Valencia (search for 'Alzira model'). Hospitals have losses, financed by taxpayers. Also, experiments are rather silly when you have a system that works. The clever thing is maintaining the model and correcting the flaws. Spain is the OECD country with the lowest health spending and still our health system is reasonably -and sometimes remarkably- good. But our government and conservatives talk about "inefficiency". Unless they are considering how efficiently Thatcher destroyed the British NHS or the money is wasted in Valencia. It must be a reflex action. Many in PP dream with Chile.

Phone tapping is allowed provided that you have authorization and you have clear proof as to why you need it.
Double standards in the press are el pan nuestro de cada día, but it's true. Some however say that Garzon acted against PSOE due to spite that he wasn't named VP by Gonzalez in 1993 (Or was it 1989?).

Funny thing, I don't see as bad having a conservative judiciary. It's natural they are closed class, one that to enter requires a large time of study, something that not everyone can afford and that even if you can, judges tend to have a lofty living, so it's natural that judges tend to be to the right.

As someone who would't mind a harsher judicial system and strict adherence to the law's wording, I actually don't mind it. But if it gets in the way of judicial autonomy and independence, then it's a problem.


Formacion profesional is very neglected in our system, it might have been actually been better seen during Franco what with the technical universities and what not. But it needs to be revamped and not have the negative connotation it has. Otherwise we will continue to have the huge problem of having on the one hand a very (perhaps even over-)prepared workforce who went to university (even if Spanish universities are bad) and people who only finished ESO and as a result are a very unskilled workforce.

The German system does allow to change paths though. I don't see it bad to elect a path when you are 12 or 13 (probably 13 is better), most teachers already know if a student is a good one, a regular one or a burden on the rest of the class by this time and I think that it would be best then to try and match people's abilities to their educational possibilities. I have been in too many classes where I got bored as hell because the teacher had to explain over and over again the same thing to a single person who would be best described as a troublemaker.

Actually, perhaps it'd be a good idea to start university not at 18, but 19.

By preparing people better for the work environment, I'd argue it increases social mobility. Spain has a large problem of a ever-large unemployment rate due to unprepared workers on the one hand and over-prepared on the other.


No, he really does not know the word 'to negotiate'. He knows to go forward pushing everyone and then being blocked. But in any case, it's not like the law will become effective ever. Its implementation's start has already been postponed by the government and many CCAA have concern about it, Catalonia the most (although I disagree with the inmersión system).


Reading on the Alzira model atm. 43 pages to go. So I'll comment later on. As I said I've never had a problem with the current system. Though, truth be told, I've always gone to private clinics, so I don't know much about how the public system works.

The next CIS poll should come soon. In the meantime, a poll from La Razón for the European elections next year:

-PP: 32% - 19/20 seats (-3/-4)
-PSOE: 27,9% - 16/17 seats (-4/-5)
-La izquierda: 12,7% - 7/8 seats (+5/+6)
-UPyD: 8,9% - 5/6 seats (+4/+5)
-CEU: 5% - 2/3 seats (=/+1)
-EdP-V: 4,8% - 2/3 seats (+1/+2)
-EQUO (plus Compromis and CHA): 2,8% - 1/2 seats (+1/+2)

With an estimated turnout of 41% (-3%).

I'd say that given that this is a La Razón poll, it seems balanced enough.

And for crazy polls:
Made by GEPS and reported by El Confidencial and El Plural with 1600 or so people answering.
It gives a prediction of:

PSOE: 35%
PP: 28%
IU: 13%
UPyD: 7%

Julio, so I was reading and is the PSOE going to put in the program the desire to break off the concordat with the Holy See?

I understand the reasons why most of the judges tend to be conservative. Anyway,
plurality is preferable and judges have the duty of being impartial and independent. This is not the case in our judicial system. As for Garzón, even if he committed an irregularity (which is debatable for some), his peers went further and sentenced that he committed prevarication (perversion of the course of justice). This is the biggest dishonour for a judge. Garzón was investigating the Gürtel case, which affected PP, and it was widely known that many in the judiciary (and outside) hated the controversial super judge. Garzón was previously accused of the same fault by a fascist organization called Manos Limpias because of his investigations on Franco's crimes. Certain judge Varela was very excited with the case and even gave advice to the plaintiffs. In parallel, a jury absolved Francisco Camps in a court in Valencia presided by a friend of the former regional PM. Many people felt puzzled, given the evidences against the accused. With actions like those, it's hard to defend the reputation of our judicial system.

Judge Castro seized duke and duchess of Palma's mansion in Barcelona. The duchess is Princess Cristina de Borbón, the daughter of king Juan Carlos. The duke, Iñaki Urdangarín is involved in a corruption scandal known as Nóos case. Cristina's husband is accused of having siphoned off millions of euros of public funds. The case affects regional governments in Valencia and the Balearic Islands.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/11/04/inenglish/1383575370_674513.html

Did you read that the Ministry of Education withdrew scholarships for most of the students in the Erasmus exchange programme?

Yes, indeed, it is a really dick move to do while many are abroad. I was actually talking to a friend who's doing right now her Erasmus in Heidelberg, you can imagine how much she loves it. Of course, she was also robbed off her excelence aid). Luckily, she's not one of the people who'll be forced to return to Spain ASAP, but those who have to, I suppose they can try to challenge it on the basis of legal certainty as the law clearly breaks the principle of non-retroactivity, but we'll see.

Habemus CIS

Link (http://datos.cis.es/pdf/Es3001mar_A.pdf)

And now to the important/interesting part of the report.

Question 17

How do you rate the PP policy as a whole?

Very Good ------> 0.4%
Good ------------> 5.3%
Regular ---------> 22.7%
Bad --------------> 29.6%
Very Bad --------> 39.8%
Doesn't Know --> 1.3%
Doesn't Answer > 0.9%

Question 18

How do you rate the PSOE's job as the opposition?

Very Good ------> 0.1%
Good ------------> 2.8%
Regular ---------> 23.6%
Bad --------------> 35.6%
Very Bad --------> 34.9%
Doesn't Know --> 2.1%
Doesn't Answer > 0.9%

Question 20

Does the PM, Mariano Rajoy inspire you confidence?

Lots of confidence: 1.8%
Yes: 8.9%
Somewhat: 26.6%
No confidence at all: 61.2%
Doesn't Know: 1.2%
Doesn't Answer: 0.4%

Question 21

Does the leader of the Opposition, Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba inspire you confidence?

Lots of confidence: 0.7%
Yes: 6.3%
Somewhat: 35.7%
No confidence at all: 55.4%
Doesn't Know: 1.7%
Doesn't Answer: 0.3%

Question 25

Which one of the following territorial organization models do you prefer?

A state with a single, central government and no autonomous regions: 21.8%
A state in which the autonomous regions are less autonomous: 12.0%
A state with the autonomous regions as it stands today: 34.2%
A state in which the autonomous regions are more autonomous: 12.2%
A state that would recognize the autonomous regions the right of becoming independent states: 9.7%
Doesn't know: 8.1
Doesn't answer: 2.0

Question 22: [Direct vote intention]

PP: 11.4
PSOE: 13.0
IU (ICV in Catalonia): 8.5
UPyD: 4.8
CiU: 1.1
Amaiur: .6
PNV: .5
ERC: 2.0
BNG: .2
CC: .4
Compromís-Equo: .4
Geroa Bai: .0
UPN: .1
Other parties: 3.5
Blank vote: 7.2
Wouldn't vote: 22.0
Doesn't know yet: 21.5
Doesn't answer: 2.6

So, as a result of this, the polling atm stands at:

PP: 34% (-10.6%) [but better than in July]
PSOE: 26.8% -(2.1%)
IU: 11.5% (+4.6%)
UPyD: 7.7% (+3.1%) [but El País says it's at 8.8%] (decrease from last polling)
CiU: 2.9% (-1.3%)
ERC: 2.5% (+1.4%)
Amaiur: 1.2% (-0.2%)
PNV: 1.2% (-0.1%)

PP still ahead, words fail me.

PP is always going to be ahead. They're always going to get at the very least the support of a quarter of all Spaniards, the techo de Fraga, hard right people who are post-Francoists and would never dare to stop voting PP because they feel besieged by the left (so they must always vote, because it's left-wing people the ones who abstain) and because the PP is the only right-wing country in Spain. Doesn't matter if they agree that the PP is doing things right or not.

In the direct vote figure, PP is only ahead among the older than 65. In some age groups PP is coming third behind IU. Of course that's not conclusive, because it's just declared vote and people answering "doesn't know yet" wins in that category.

I don't feel confortable discussing Spanish politics... in English.

-About the CIS: LOL. The people who "cooked" the survey should go to "Master Chef".

-About Wert: well, apart from the fact he's a bad person (that's a fact) he should have resigned the other day. What an humillation for him, and what a pain for many Spanish students... You've said you don't think he's trying to dismantle our Education System, Nanwe. I hope I could agree with you, but he's the most ideology hack person I've seen in my life. I have suffered that dismantle you think doesn't exist, both in the High School and the University. Oh, come on, his new lae, that monstruosity called "LOMCE" will only bring tension and more tension until it gets revoked in 2015-2016. But the cuts he's already made, with the collaboration of our "consejera" of Education of Madrid, Lucía Figar... What a pain for the students, the teachers and the parents. Let me put an example: when I was in "2º de Bachillerato" (last year in the High School, very important considering that you have "Selectividad" to enter the University), my Economics teacher was hired the second week of October. My History and Geography (two subjects, same teacher) teacher only came the 3rd week of October. The year begins the 2nd week of september. Not only that, but the optional subject I chose was "Fundamentos de Administración". My teacher was going to be the same person who taught Economics, so until October I had no classes... But then, the "Consejería" decided that the High School couldn't afford the subject, so they decided to put me on "English extension". I was there until November, but I was told by then that we had to choose betwen "Psychology" and "French". Finally, in November, I chose French. And many cuts came as the year passed... In the University things, of course, didn't get better. We have to pay almost 2.000€ (THANK YOU, AGUIRRE) and this jerk, Wert, is making it very difficult for students whose parents don't have tons of money continue studying if they don't get more than a 6,5/10 (in my case, I have the money and good marks, but I have more than one, in fact more than 3 friends who can't afford going to University without the grant, and are looking for a job they are not going to find). And the situation in Communities where they talk yet another language, the situation is worse: just look what happened in Balears (this is more related to Bauzá than to Wert "it"self). When people tell me about "PPSOE" I always answer the same: just look, with ZP we had Ángel Gabilondo, with Rajoy we have José Ignacio Wert (Francisco Franco for those who believe in reincarnation).
And, are you seriously telling me that we are going to start segregating CHILDREN?
Even his brother is against his policies!!

http://www.eldiario.es/sociedad/ley-afecta-modelo-linguistico_0_79092567.html

http://sociedad.elpais.com/sociedad/2013/05/07/actualidad/1367927212_133455.html

-About the "externalization" (PRIVATIZATION) of hospitals. I know this well because I live in a town where we have one of these hospitals... The Infanta Sofía. Well, what mr. Lasquetty is doing here should be considered a crime. What an outrage!! He's sold our Hopsital to a company of Puerto Rico, HIMA San Pablo, which doesn't have the money they have requested them and they want to "attract Morrocan health tourism" in order to take advantadge of the Hospital.. Do you know we, citizens of the towns around Madrid, have a price? The Community of Madrid will pay these companies about 480€ per citizen... I had the opoortunity to talk to the Socialist member of the Madrid Assambly José Manuel Freire about this. Selling hospitals = Killing people. It may sound to exaggerated, but it isn't.

http://www.eldiario.es/sociedad/turismo-sanitario-expansion-HIMA-San-Pablo_0_166583469.html

http://psoesanse.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=218:el-psoe-de-sanse-tacha-de-indecente-el-silencio-del-alcalde-ante-los-planes-de-convertir-nuestro-hospital-en-un-hotel-sanitario-especializado-en-clientes-marroquies&catid=87&Itemid=577

-About people named Gervasio. The man was about 85 years old. I think he was the last Gervasio :p.

-About the Concordate: as soon as PP loses it's absolute majority, I think it's necessary to renegotiate it. When Rubalcaba wanted to "break it" we had a different situation with a very different Pope. I, as an atheist and progressive person, think we need to break it now (Wert is using it to put Religion EVERYWHERE, in fact), bu I think Pope Francis is reasonable enough we can improve our relationships with the Church. Wasn't him the one who said we need a secular State? :P Rubalcaba is just trying to get back some left-wingers like me. I don't think that's the right path (what he has to do is to go as soon as possible), but certainly it helps with the Socialist base.

The same happens to me when I need to explain something concerning Latin America but: "Adonde fueres, haz lo que vieres"; y hablar en otro idioma en un foro donde todos utilizan el inglés sería de muy mal gusto y de muy mala leche, además de levantar suspicacias.

--

I love Wert. "Now the classrooms will have more students so they can improve mingling". You need cojones to officially say such a thing and don't give a fink of what people would say about such a lie. It's like Andrea Fabra shouting "¡Qué se jodan!" ("Fink you!") in the congress after the cuts of wealthfare for the unemployed.

The PP is probably the most corrupt and evil political party in Europe right now and it's a shame that a good part of Spaniards would vote for them again.

Es cierto que sería levantar sospechas. Creo que todos somos sospechosos cuando t_host1 escribe en algo que no sea Inglés.

Levantaría sospechas (más que suspicacias, eso siempre que escribe un no-estadounidense jajaja), seguro. Obama tendría el ojo puesto en esta discusión si continuáramos escribiendo en castellano...

BTW, I really don't think PP is going to win the next GE. PSOE will recover after this "Political Conference" for sure. We will know when the primaries will be held in December (and only 10,000 signatures will be needed to run, not 20,000 (10% of the militancy)!!
And I'll have the oportunity to meet Edu Madina next month, too, he's coming to my town to talk about "democracy". Do you want me to ask him anything??

This is a hyperbole, isn't it? We have plenty of evil right-wing parties in Europe and corruption scandals in other countries.


I don't want to cool your enthusiasm, but the Socialists have a long way to go and not all the signs from the political conference are positive.

I am not saying this Conference will solve things within the PSOE. What I think is that people are ready to vote PSOE... With primaries probably happening in a year and fresh faces and ideas, I think we can get to 33-35% again, and that can be enough to win. And I believe IU will start bleeding, the party is such a mess right now. They'll have a hard time explaining why they don't want primaries. And, finally, I'm almost sure we'll have a Basque candidate: one who defeated the "devil" Ibarretxe and the other one is an ETA victim. I think the 2nd helps more, but the first is quite a achievement, too!

They could start by thinking about how they might tackle (or at least ameliorate) systemic social problems next time they're in power, rather than waste their time on useless gesture politics.

Hopefully. That's why I think the best possible Government would be a PSOE+IU Coalition 'a la andaluza'.

Not that I was planning on coming back to Spain for a while (for a long period of time, I mean) but that possibility really, really scares me. And I fear that IU is too complacent when in government with PSOE (see Andalucia) in particular to tackle political issues (excluding socio-economic, so it's political in a more concrete way).

I'd prefer some post-election chaos (no one being able to have an absolute majority nor a minority govt with nationalist support à la '93,'96,'04,'08) followed by a PP-PSOE grand coalition. This might be a huge disaster (so making way for a renewd political scene) or a good government as both parties have to act responsibly and both would check each other while finally ending the two-party system by not being able to use polarizing "no, you, no you" speeches which is 80-90% of electoral discourse. [Yes, I am a boring moderate hero :p]

EDIT: I think it's going to be difficult to see the PSOE mover left quickly, except rhetoric-wise.The CIS showed something interesting, but well known since the 80s, the PSOE attracts people who identify in all political positions, they even have voters who identify as far-right, unlike the PP which barely has any voters beyond the most moderate centre-left (4 in a scale of 0 to 10). As a result, traditionally the PSOE has always pandered to the social liberal franquista sociologicamente (outdated expression, but you know what I mean?) urban middle class that is, eminently centrist (both in a modern and a UCD meaning) which basically means the PSOE can never shift too much to the left as they still need these voters to win.

IF they did shift considerably to the left, the PSOE would abandon its pretensions of being a big tent for all Spaniards, which, from my own personal understanding of democracy, would be a good thing by making the PSOE a representative exclusively of the centre-left. But that would reduce their voters share to 20-25% while leaving a huge space in the middle for liberal-centrist voters to adhere to the PP (à la '96 or '00) or the creation of a new centrist party in the middle (which I'm not altogether sure UPyD could fill, as it's more of a anti-nationalist centre-left party than an actual centrist party).

So, did my analysis make sense?

Well, that's a lesson that could be taken on board by just about every social democratic party in Europe, no?

Pretty much. However, in Spain the need of tackling the real issues is much more pressing.


Isn't there a contradiction between "social liberal" and "sociologically Francoist"? I didn't understand that part very well. I agree partially on your appreciation on PSOE moving too leftwards. However, Spanish socialists are not trying to become in a carbon copy of our United Left, in any case they are making an attempt to recover some forgotten principles of reformist socialdemocracy.

The political conference is starting badly trying to avoid the debate on PSOE's federal proposal. As Antonio Elorza says in the article that I'll link below, it seems that socialists are proposing hundreds of inarticulate measures without analyzing the genesis of problems nor confronting reality. It's not that the other opposition parties (IU and UPyD) give the impression of being credible alternatives right now, they seem to be expecting to pick up some of the shipwreck remains.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2013/11/08/actualidad/1383935225_190255.html

As for UPyD, aside socially liberal stances, I'd say the party is drifting towards center right, but it's hard to know what's UPYD social agenda right now. Polls doesn't indicate that many disillusioned PP voters are joining Rosa Díez. Die hard conservatives may like confrontation with peripheral nationalism, but not other proposals, so they don't join UPyD. Perhaps those centrist voters which used to oscillate between PP and PSOE are not enthusiastically convinced by any political option. Besides, the middle class in Spain is diminishing with the crisis. 

I forgot this. Celeste-Tell poll:

PP 31.8%; PSOE 28.2%; IU 13.3%; UPyD 7.9%; ERC 2.4%; CiU 2.3%; Amaiur 1.7%; Equo 1.7%; EAJ-PNV 1.4%; Ciutadans 1.4%; Compromís 1.2%.

Turnout (estimated) 55.1%.

http://www.celeste-tel.es/images/Barometroelectoralsocialnoviembre2013.pdf

I could have explained myself better but let's see. I don't think it's a contradiction. Franquismo sociologico is more a thing of the 80s, but overall among most people is a certain belief that Franco's time were economically good and there's no proper rejection of it but neither a great support of it, rather a certain ambivalence. This can still be perfectly compatible with a social liberal world view, although as the last generations that lived (and remember) Franco's time, so say anyone born before 1965-67 grow older, the compatibility of the two things will disappear.

I think I've reading so much stuff about the 80s Spain that I might be just projecting some stuff into today's politics.

Of course they won't become a IU, especially now that IU itself has left its moderate days under Llamazares to be once again led by the PCE. But the PSOE has always excelled at speaking red and then acting like a centrist. In 1986 and especially '89 (y dale con los 80), the party talked in terms of socializing the economy and expanding the welfare state and their economic policy, however was largely to cut down labour costs (not a bad thing, but just pointing out the divergence) and to drive down inflation though a tight fiscal policy.


Well, we all knew they'd try not to face the party-splitting problem, at least not so publicly.

About IU and UPyD, it's hard to be seen as an alternative when you are a minor party but at the same time, how can you ever prove that you are unless voters give them a chance? (Am I seriously defending voting for IU?, God)


I'd agree the party has been moving somewhat to the centre to attract unhappy moderate PP voters but I agree it's very hard to know.

Hardcore PP are in love with Ciutadans and their new project at a national level, Movimiento Ciudadano. I think it's because C's is seen as a more moderate version of UPyD and there are rumours that Rivera was back in uni a NNGG member. Link to MC's webpage: Movciudadano (http://movciudadano.es/).


Seems possible but I think expected turnout is too low. Also, I'd say PSOE is below 28% atm, not by much.

People already know that PSOE is a moderate party. Socialists try desperately to connect again with their traditional voter base and they need to be credible again as a center left alternative to PP's "we must do this because there's no alternative". In the 80s socialists actually expanded welfare state and one of the best ministers in the González cabinets, Ernest Lluch, built our national healthcare system. Lluch was one of the few politicians that I can define as a Freedom Fighter in the last 35 years and was killed by ETA.


It's not only a question of voters giving them a chance. Neither IU nor UPyD are connected with reality. Especially the latter is obsessed with issues with no relation with our desperate social and economic situation. The real Spain is the one that portraits the Cáritas reports on the increasing poverty. I've just googled "pobreza en España" and the first result is a news dated 19 hours ago: 2.5 million of children suffer malnutrition. Many families lack of money to feed adequately their children, whom eat their main food of the day in the school dining halls. Education budget is suffering severe cuts... Actually, the political debate is often focused in trivialities.


C's is basically a populist party and its message is simple and direct, back to the bone. UPyD is somewhat populist as well (Toni Cantó), but in a lesser degree if compared with Rivera's troupe. I feel a deep distrust towards people like Albert Rivera and rumours on his past affiliation are not the main reason, though they might be symptomatic.

Rubalcaba: "PSOE is back".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/11/10/inenglish/1384107424_772356.html


Also, Rubalcaba stated that socialists must be present in the streets, in solidarity with the people demonstrating against the government and "defending what we set in motion". On the Catalonia's independence drive, he advocated for "unity and diversity" and for the need of rebuilding territorial relations with "mutual respect and affection".

On primary elections to elect the a candidate to run in the 2015 election, Rubalcaba stated (ironically) that they'll hold them "before PP, in any case". Primaries are not taking into account in PP's statutes. The potential candidates are:

- Carme Chacón: PSC member, former minister of defense, narrowly defeated in the race for the party's leadership by Rubalcaba in the 2012 convention. She's temporally retired in Miami, where she's teaching in Miami Dade College.

- Patxi López: former Basque regional premier (lehendakari), close ally of Rubalcaba and potential candidate of the party's establishment. 

- Eduardo Madina: MP for Bizkaia, in the Basque Country. He's the youngest in this group and  lacks governmental experience, which may be an advantage or disadvantage depending on circumstances. He's very cautious and perhaps overburdened with the hopes that some people put on him. At the moment he lacks the support of party bosses.

-Emiliano García-Page: mayor of Toledo and rival of PP's general secretary, Dolores de Cospedal, in Castilla-La Mancha. The most moderate and centrist, in the style of José Bono. He desires a "left-oriented" party but "permeable to other sensitivities."

Susana Díaz, the new Andalusian premier, is gaining relevance within the party. She made an emotional speech at the opening of the political conference, receiving a great ovation among delegates. "This conference has to wake illusion up and open the door for hope. We come with the responsibility of recovering the credibility of the people and of stopping the sadness that is flooding this country. And to prevent the right from finishing with the project of thousands of Spaniards in the next years." The concurrence especially liked this: "We took decisions that removed us from our social base and we themselves were not recognizing ourselves. There are gaps that we haven't been capable of blocking up. We still have not been capable of constructing this transformation process that Spain needs."

Finally, there will be two questions for the Catalan referendum (and a date):

http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/12/12/inenglish/1386856018_634934.html


However, the Spain's government is ill-disposed:


And a PP spokesman in Catalonia states, following the party line:


Regarding the questions:


In the last paragraph, Junqueras refers to the first proposed question ("Do you want Catalonia to be a state?"), admitting that if that question gets a majority of affirmative votes but the second question ( "Do you want Catalonia to be an independent state?") fails, "independence movement in Catalonia will not have won". Joan Herrera, leader of ICV-EUiA, stated that the first question appeals as well to federalists contrary to independence and PSC stances. "The question allows to add all those that we do not want to continue like till now", has said Herrera.

I hate monologues, but let's update this thing.

According to El Pais the controversial abortion reform is eroding voting support for PP. A Metroscopia survey (released on Jan 12) indicates that PSOE would win by a 1.5% margin if elections were held today.


The poll shows a strong disapproval of the reform sponsored by Justice Minister Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón. On the following questions and asserts, interviewees replied as follows:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/01/11/media/1389453933_455931.html

-Should political parties allow deputies to vote according with their conscience when the bill is put before the Congress?: 91% agrees; 6% disagrees.

-Has every pregnant woman right to decide if to continue or not with her pregnancy?: 86% agrees; 11% disagrees.

-Must fetus malformation be maintained as motive to abort legally?: 84% agrees; 10% disagrees.

-This reform will increase clandestine abortions in conditions of insecurity: 78& agrees; 16% disagrees.

-This reform wasn't necessary: 78% agrees; 18% disagrees.

-In the present, there's not a social demand that justifies this reform: 75% agrees; 16% disagrees.

-This reform has been promoted in order to please Catholic Church hardliners: 75% agrees; 17% disagrees.

The conclusion that El País extracts of this poll is:


However, the Celeste-Tel January survey shows PP ahead by a 2.3% margin:

() (https://imageshack.com/i/5bduwtp)

El Mundo (PP-friendly newspaper, whereas El País is more PSOE-friendly) went further in its last poll (Sigma-Dos, January), with PP leading by 8.9%.

() (https://imageshack.com/i/jj264yp)

I tend to think that Celeste-Tel might be more accurate or less skewed, but who knows.

-On a side note, Elena Valenciano (Rubalcaba's deputy general secretary) might be running as PSOE candidate in the next European elections. Socialists are weighing her candidacy in order to make a strong list to challenge the ruling Popular Party. PSOE hopes that elections will be the beginning of a favourable cycle, followed by regional, local elections and the 2015 general election. If Valenciano runs, she might share the top of the list with MEP (and former Justice Minister) Juan Fernando López Aguilar, who ran in 2009 as PSOE's top candidate.

PP might place Miguel Arias Cañete, currently Minister of Agriculture.

I read about Valenciano and Cañete in El País, but what I've been told by a friend who works for elplural.com is that Juan Fernando López Aguilar is the most likely number 1 in the list (again and even after having endorsed Chacón in 2012) and that Rajoy has offered Mayor Oreja the 1st place yet again, to keep the fascist vote inside the PP. Ana Mato and Cañete will probably be on the European Parliament, too.

All is hanging in the air, then. My impression is that López Aguilar might be convenient candidate, because he's rather popular and even somewhat charismatic. Besides, many people in PSOE might be thinking that he's better in exile. Not to mention the PSOE's current leadership in the Canaries; the further he is, the better for them ;D

I'm not sure if placing a hardliner like Mayor Oreja on the top is a good idea. Arias Cañete is much less controversial and he's an expert on EU issues. Did your contact give you more inputs? I live too far from Madrid :P

Do you think there's much chance of IU getting close to their current poll ratings in an actual election?

If you want my opinion, no. At least not in the European elections... I've been told (by another friend, actually) that some people (some very famous people, who enjoy appearing on TV one day and the following) to the left of IU will run for the EU elections. That may kill IU there, but I'm not so sure they'll do it... The person who's told me this is of course a member of IU, and he says he'd vote for the others :p I may give names sooner or later.


On Saturday we'll know when the primaries will happen, not even Tomás Gómez (who was in my town today, and I had the opportunity to talk to him: http://www.telemadrid.es/noticias/madrid/noticia/gomez-denuncia-la-injusta-subida-de-impuestos-en-san-sebastian-de-los-reyes I'm the guy wearing glasses behind him) knows, but most people seem to think they'll take place by November.

I agree with you on López Aguilar, some people may want him in Brussels, there he ain't be 'dangerous'. But hey, maybe if he wins by +5 points (unlikely, I know) the media will begin talking about him as a potential candidate... And I have the feeling that he actually wouldn't mind running (quite the opposite), what do you think, Dani?

Arias Cañete clearly wants to be something in the EU Commission, but maybe Rajoy wants him to run in Andalusia or to have him remain Minister, as he's one of the least-unpopular, and Rajoy needs some ministers to burn after having burnt Gallardón :P But I trust my contact and he thinks Mayor Oreja is Rajoy's choice right now. I, like you, believe putting a hard-liner (I have no problems calling him a fascist, lepenist or whatever they call them now) will backfire just as I think the Abortion Law did. Not only because the far-right will vote PP no matter what if there isn't a viable choice from the right, but because PP needs the centre to win again.

Now that I mention "an option from the right". This same person has told me that Santiago Abascal will create a new party and right know he's 50-50 about running for the EU elections, with him or Ortega Lara leading the pack.

So, this could be the scenario:

-Fascists: "La España en Marcha": Falange, DN, AN, and other Golden Down-llike parties. Will run.

-PxC and some other parties supposedly supported by LePen: are running, but I don't know about the impact they'll have. In a conversation with Esteban Ibarra (president of "Movimiento contra la Intolerancia") he told me these ones are the ones he fears the most, and that in his opinion they have a chance to get 1 deputy in the EU Parliament if LePen comes here to officially endorse them.

-Santiago Abascal, Ortega Lara and maybe Vidal-Quadras joke-ultraconservative party.

-PP

-UPyD

-Movimiento Ciudadano

-Centre-right nationalists: PNV, CiU...

-PSOE

-Left nationalists: ERC, Bildu...

-IU

-Joint list of communists, famous personalities and others

And the surprise candidate could be Miguel Ángel Revilla (that's just my opinion, no inputs). I've seen him too much on TV (and not only to talk about his books or the economy), I think he wants to measure his support around Spain, even if he's said 14546656 times that he'll never run for President.

If at least 2/3 of the new parties I've mentioned decide to run, we'll have a very interesting (and frightening) election in May.

Hard to say. Social unrest favours IU but, on the other hand, speculations on the left-wing coalition surpassing PSOE sound rather fantastic. Neither PSOE is PASOK nor IU is Syriza -besides, IU is lacking of a charismatic leader like Tsipras-. I think we must wait until the European elections to see if IU is able to fulfill the expectations. My personal theory is that the border between a good and a mediocre result is the 1994 election. Then IU got 13.4% of the vote with a 59.1% turnout (roughly 2.5 million of votes).

http://www.historiaelectoral.com/eu1994.html


I saw your fringe and your glasses ;)

As you say, it looks unlikely an outright socialist victory in the European elections. Perhaps if he gets a decent result -with 'decent' I mean PSOE tied or close to PP- he could eventually return to a major role in national politics. I don't see him as a candidate in the next primaries, but obviously he's not a featherweight. With Chacón or Madina winning the socialist primaries, he might get a major role. If an 'establishment' candidate wins the nomination to run in 2015, well... his stay in Brussels could be longer  This is speculative, I'm not into PSOE intrigues ;)

I don't think that new party in the hard-right with Abascal, Vidal-Quadras and the other loonies has chances to go anywhere. The openly fascist "España en Marcha" even less. However, there's unrest amongst PP's hardliners and the Aguirre's fan club. An European election is the perfect occasion to collect protest votes. Nobody in this country knows which are Rajoy's intentions on anything, despite he always states that he likes to be predictable. For sure Rajoy and PP will take the next election seriously. What's quoted below makes sense and is somewhat worrying:


I guess you mean that "Platform for Liberty", the national extension of the far-right Plataforma per Catalunya (PxC). If Le Pen endorses the Anglada bunch and even some member of the Panzer family consents to make a visit... Hell, it might be disgusting and you could expect some pulling effect.

The good thing is that the hard and the far right are splitted in the several bunches you mentioned. Also, Movimiento Ciudadano -which is not an extremist party, but a populist one- can get votes from some PP hardliners, because of Albert Rivera's popularity (good looking appearances in TV, anti-Catalan independentism) amongst these voters. Anyway, abstention is the main enemy of the Popular Party.

Santiago Abascal, Ortega Lara, a Suárez minister and others have announced today the creation of a new party to the right of the PP, Alejo Vidal-Quadras may eventually join it. So what I said yesterday was, at least, partially true:

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2014/01/14/52d51fd5268e3eaa318b4576.html

I think those guys could actually get a respectable % of the vote. Ortega Lara is like God for some "PPeros". It will certainly hurt Populars, and it could be what the PSOE needs to beat them in the EU Elections :P

López Aguilar endorsed Chacón and they're still good friends. He'll come to Sanse next month, do you want to me to make any specific question to him? I don't think he will run, mainly because it's all about name rec right now (I think that's why Chacón is leading by +10 points over Patxi López, Diaz and Madina in the last 2 polls)... but after a good result in May, his name rec may grow quite a bit. Even then, I don't think he has the support (outside of Canarias) to win and he may know it.

To be honest, I don't see how Chacón DOESN'T take it. She will have the support of PSC, about half of the Juventudes Socialistas and the PSPV, and maybe the support of the PSOE-Andalucía, not to say that López Aguilar probably won't run and endorse her. I will be voting for Madina (although this can change) and Tomás Gómez, ironically, seems to like Patxi López (the establishment favourite, those people Tomás Gómez fights against).

You heard it here first. I didn't want to give names because it was something a friend told me privately... But today it's news. Yesterday I was talking about Pablo Iglesias (without mentioning him), who wants to lead an "anti-cuts" list for the EU elections:

http://ecodiario.eleconomista.es/interstitial/volver/nuezene14/politica/noticias/5456691/01/14/Pablo-Iglesias-da-el-salto-a-la-politica-encabezara-una-lista-para-las-europeas.html

I'll tell you one more thing. There will be members of IU supporting them. Pablo Iglesias had been offered to be the number 8 in the IU list and he rejected. Some IU people are upset the candidate will be Willy Meyer yet again. Expect some to leave the coalition and join Monedero and Iglesias in their new adventure (JC Monedero is Hugo Chavez fanboy in Spain, very popular among the hard-left electorate).

Abascal Party (the new AP LoL) hurts PP + Pablo Iglesias Party (PIP) hurts IU + Movimiento Ciudadano (or Rivera Party) hurts PP and UPyD = PSOE is the big winner, or at least the less affected by these new parties.

My prediction for the EU elections would be (if things develop as I expect them to):

PSOE 30%
PP 28%
IU 9%
UPyD 6%
MC 4%
PIP 4%
CiUPNVetc 4%
ERCBilduetc 4%
AP 4%
Equoetc 2%
PxL 1%
España en marcha 1%
Others 3%

I forgot to mention this, but don't rule out a MC-Abascal coalition.

So, we'd have:

-Fascists (PxL, EeM): 2% (one could argue that Abascal and even some PP should be included here)
-Right 32% (PP and AP)
-Centre-to-centre-right: 14% (UPyD, MC and PNVCiU, even if they hate each other and shouldn't be included in the same category)

-Centre-left: 32% (PSOE and Equo)
-Left: 17% (IU, PIP, ERCBildu)

Just wishful thinking.

Some people point that Spain is not only under an economic crisis; there's also a moral, political and territorial crisis. The political parties have never had such a low level of approval:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/01/17/inenglish/1389980385_808918.html


According to Josep Ramoneda's analysis, the main causes of the disengagement of political parties -which are reluctant to acknowledge their big failure- from society are:

- Lack of empathy with the people. The crisis is only handled from a purely technocratic angle; unemployment figures are just statistics, not a sum of personal tragedies.

- The political class lives isolated in a glass bubble and is passive facing corruption, endogamic and corporatist. Parties encourage blind loyalty from their parliamentarians and membership; parliamentarian debates are restricted and actual political discussion discouraged.

- Promiscuity between money and politics. According to this analysis, politicians surrounded by bankers and businessmen, far from inspiring confidence, breed doubts among the people. For whom are they governing? How many debts have them to pay?

-Inefficiency of the parties in fulfilling: a) political representation b) selection of suitable people to hold the offices.

Conclusion: Citizens don't feel they from part of the decision making process. What people wants is that the political process be at their service and open discussion of public priorities.


Regarding to that protest in Burgos -an old town in Castile, traditionalist, conservative and ruled by PP- the right wing press was crying out against the protesters, saying they were PSOE or IU puppets. That press is highly disconnected from reality; the influence of these parties in any type of civil movement tends to be zero. Of course, PSOE and IU try to add themselves to civil movements, such as those in defense of public healthcare and education (the so-called "green tide"), but they didn't generate them.

Velasco - that analysis of "moral and political crisis" sounds credible to me. Do you think there is a possibility of a Grillo-type movement evolving in Spain to capture all those disappointed voters? Or may it rather go German "Wutbürger" style, with a moderate but non-established party (á la Greens in Baden-Würtemberg, but of course a Spanish-style version)  benefitting? Or do nationalists/ regionalists on one side, and some right-wing populists on the other side, already provide sufficient opportunity for protest voters to prevent new movements from emerging?

The questions are interesting, but I don't have a crystal ball ;)

I think the Grillo movement is too sui generis to be extrapolable to other countries. To begin with, we would need a media figure like Beppe Grillo, capable to connect with people's dissatisfaction exclaiming: "Vafanculo!!!" We have some good comedians in the TV, but luckily they are not touched by partisan politics. Anyway, there's a potential for populism and we have some examples of media celebrities entering into politics. For example, actor Toni Cantó ran for UPYD in the Valencia district and won a seat. He earned popularity with his campaign song, the Toni Cantó Rap.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0s5SyET_Mw

The lyrics is something like this: "Clash, squandering, lies, corruption, unemployment, crisis, inept leaders, parties that belong to the past, (peripheral) nationalism that divide" ... In opposition, the chorus proclaims: "We are the world because we form it/ the spine and the heart of something ... We are UPyD"

The song resembles somehow the Franco Parisi's "The Power of the People" in the Chilean campaign.

However, I don't think Toni Cantó or other people who appears in TV such as former Cantabria premier Miguel Revilla, a certain judge Silva* and others have the Grillo potential.

*_{Elpidio Silva was previously in charge of the preliminary investigation in a case involving PP's Miguel Blesa, who was the president (executive chairman?) of Caja Madrid, one of the most important Spanish saving banks. Blesa was a accused of serious irregularities in a loan to the Group Marsans (tour operations, former owner of Aerolíneas Argentinas, collapsed in 2010) and the purchase by Caja Madrid of the City National Bank of Florida. Silva was challenged by the Blesa's defense and was replaced by another judge.}

I don't see a clear equivalent for the Baden Würtemberg Greens, but I think Movimiento Ciudadano (Citizen Movement) has chances to gather some disappointed voters. MC is the extension of Ciutadans (Citizens, C's), a Catalan party led by Albert Rivera. As I said in a previous post, Rivera has a constant presence in TV, appearing as a talk show guest or being interviewed in some programs. C's is not extremist, just ideologically ambiguous and almost indistinguishable from UPyD. It's more or less social-liberal with a strong focus on opposition to (peripheral) nationalism. Anti-independence demonstrations in Barcelona are only attended by PP and C's members, with some far-right guests (maybe unwanted) joining. Also, Ciutadans has a strong anti-corruption message and advocates for a 'democratic regeneration' in Spain. In the rest of the country, some miscellaneous independent personalities and groups have joined the MC, though the party's potential relies on Rivera's charisma (besides, he's young and good-looking). Right-wing voters dislike Díez for being a former PSOE member, but Rivera lacks of that disadvantage amongst them (allegedly, he was in PP's Youth). Last poll for the EP elections posted in the IE board gives MC a seat and it's possible that the surge of this party is halting UPyD's electoral growth. On the other hand, there's a long history with UPyD's leader Rosa Díez and Albert Rivera failing to meet up. Rosa Díez always rejected coalitions with Rivera's party (UPyD is weak in Catalonia, whereas C's was lacking of presence in the rest of Spain). UPyD and Díez have been always obsessed with having an homogeneous message and similar electoral brands throughout Spain. Rivera states that he tried hard to form a coalition, but Díez was unresponsive.

The new party made with former PP hardliners might have potential if they were led by someone with charisma. Ortega Lara, a former prison officer who was abducted by ETA for 532 days, is popular but lacks the makings and aptitudes to be a political leader. Also, PP voters were extremely loyal to their party in the past and, seemingly, many of them prefer going to abstention instead of voting for another party.

In the xenophobic far-right, perhaps Anglada and Platform for Catalonia have chances in the EP election (though I wouldn't give that for granted) but they have little to do in national politics. The fascist bunches (Democracia Nacional, Falange) are irrelevant.

Some peripheral nationalist forces (EHBildu in the Basque Country; ERC and CUP in Catalonia; AGE in Galicia) capitalize protest vote in their territories, as well C's in Catalonia on the anti-nationalist side.

The same analysis can be made in many other European countries, but citizens are reacting differently. In Greece they turn to both far-right and far-left parties, in France many of them turn to the Front National and in Italy to Beppe Grillo. The particularity of Spain is that the contestation started in the street with the "indignados" and is still very street and "action" oriented. I am looking forward to see what will happen in Spain, the protests in 2011 were quite promising.

Yes (welcome to the forum, btw). Besides, the 15M movement (indignados) was clearly the predecessor and inspiration for Occupy Wall Street and similar movements in other countries (e.g. #YoSoy132 in Mexico). The indignados movement had many internal contradictions -obvious, given the heterogeneity of those who were taking part in it- and ended being diluted. Anyway, the ongoing protests in Spain owe much to the 15M.

On a second thought, I think the menace of the rooting of a xenophobic far-right in Spain, in the style of the Front National, might have diminished in the last times. On one hand in Catalonia, where PxC obtained some successes in local elections, everything is subordinated now to the debate on independence. On the other hand, the exit of thousands of foreign immigrants who found themselves unemployed, might have reduced tensions in some working-class towns with high proportion of foreign population-in Barcelona and Madrid peripheries, for example-. I'd like to see if the new hard-right split from PP (the so-called "VOX" Party) has some impact in the following polls.

Bump.


A poll released a couple of days ago made me remember that quote above.


After the EP elections I promised myself not to trust pollsters anymore, but it seems that we have a trend. With the next year's local elections in mind, Rajoy is preparing a 'reform'. He spoke of a strange thing called 'democratic regeneration'; I didn't understand what he wanted to say.

It might be something like this:

http://www.repubblica.it/2006/c/sezioni/politica/versoelezioni38/caldporcata/caldporcata.html

I was just coming to ask if we were not going to discuss the fact that a poll put Podemos one point behind PSOE 3 days ago. I can't see the image you posted above, Velasco, from where I post right now so it may be the same.

The Sigma Dos / El Mundo poll (http://www.elmundo.es/grafico/espana/2014/08/31/53ff207422601dbc638b4585.html) :

PP : 30.1
PSOE : 22.3
Podemos : 21.2
UPyD : 5.6
IU : 4.1

Even more important is the fact that half PSOE voters think Podemos can unthrone PSOE as left leader, against 40% that think otherwise. The public at large is split 43-42 on the subject.

68% of IU voters also want Podemos and IU to ally for next election, but knowing the radical left as I know it, this is unlikely to happen IMO.

Still, is it just a Pirate-style fad or is something real happening in Spain ?

Yes, my pic was the Sigma Dos/El Mundo poll ;)

I don't know what's going to happen in the next year's elections, but I doubt that Podemos is comparable with the Pirates. Podemos is still inarticulate at organisational level and some points in the platform need to be explained better, specially how are they going to implement some ambitious economic offers. Like the Pirates (and Grillo, to a certain extent), they work well in the social networks, but (unlike them) they have a solid left-wing ideological base. Keep in mind that the founding core of Podemos is made of political scientists, some philosophers and other academicians, plus some people expert at social fights (Marea Verde, for example). Iglesias and the main ideologists in Podemos (Monedero, Errejón, etc) often mention Gramsci. Nevertheless, the message conveyed by Pablo Iglesias is intentionally simplified, in order to connect with the broadest public possible. There's a clear communication strategy; Iglesias and others are skilled on that matter. He speaks -somewhat in a Grillo style- of La Casta, the political class which has ruined the country. He says that Podemos wants to change the rules of the game. In his view, there's not a left-right axis represented by PSOE and PP anymore; there exists a fundamental dictatorship-democracy axis. One side of the latter is represented by Brussels, the ECB, the IMF, builders that bribe corrupt politicians... The other side is represented by those who fight for social rights, the power of the people, human rights and decency.

As you can imagine, there is a lot of controversy around Podemos. I can link you a couple of articles in Spanish, defending and attacking them, with good argumentation.

In favour: ¿Cuadrar el círculo? El éxito electoral de Podemos by José Luis Villacañas.

http://blogs.elconfidencial.com/alma-corazon-vida/escuela-de-filosofia/2014-06-15/cuadrar-el-circulo-el-exito-de-podemos_146314/#

Against: La irresistible ascensión de P.I by Antonio Elorza*

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/07/09/opinion/1404895770_355103.html

_{*Antonio Elorza was a PCE member expelled by Carrillo in the early 80s. He co-wrote the canon textbook on the early years of the Communist Party of Spain (until 1936).}

As for IU, the tragedy for them is that they are being drowned by the tide, as the poll seems to suggest. The trend in the polls is consistent since the EP elections, and it looks like it's solid. Anyway, you are right; there's a great tradition of factionalism in the radical left. It won't be easy an alliance between Podemos and IU, despite many of the Podemos founding members were in IU years ago (or maybe because of it). In any case, it seems that Podemos is not going to run in the next local elections with the same brand everywhere. Partly because they fear of arrivistes (upstarters) joining their ranks, they want to build alliances with the left and the social movements on a local basis. They are going to support a list in Barcelona called Guanyem ("We Win"), topped by anti-eviction leader Ada Colau.

Everything here seems to be mutating too fast. At the very least, it's interesting.

Does Podemos clearly reject any association with the other parties?

If the poll published above happens to be accurate, what would be more likely, a "grand coalition" PP-PSOE or a left-wing coalition?

Do you mean association with IU or a broader alliance including PSOE? On electoral alliances, it's possible (although not easy) some kind of coalition with IU at regional or national level. They call that 'confluence of the left' and officially it's supported by both parties, but they say such 'confluence' will be a slow process. PSOE is going to run alone, that's for sure. On post-election coalitions, it's hard to say. We have local and regional elections in May 2015 and parliamentary elections in November, unless Rajoy decides calling earlier (I think it's unlikely). First we'll have to see how alliances are forged in local and regional governments. Then (and that's not a minor issue), we need to know the composition of the next parliament.

The electoral system in Spain is PR (D'Hont), but the country is divided in 52 electoral districts and most of them are small (less than 7 seats on average). That favours PP, not enough to gain a majority with only 30% of the vote, but maybe enough to prevent a majority of the combined left. A likely result is a hung parliament. You can see how the Congress of Deputies could be with the results of the Celeste-Tel July survey (don't think that has a full accuracy, it's just estimated):

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/Podemos-consolida-tercera-fuerza_0_281722474.html

Majority is at 176 seats. PP gets 33.5% and 145/149; PSOE 23.1% and 89/92; Podemos 14.1% and 34/37; IU 5.1% and 12/15; UPyD 4.8% and 9/12...

PSOE, IU and Podemos don't reach a majority, even with the addition of the separatist left (ERC, EH Bildu) or the UPyD and Cs. This poll looks conservative in comaprison with El Mundo. I don't know how many seats can get PSOE at 22% and Podemos at 21%; they might be closer to a majority adding the IU, but I'm not sure if numbers will tally. OTOH, I won't set fire to myself for the accuracy of one poll or another. Podemos is over PSOE in raw vote intention, and even over PP in some polls...

Pedro Sánchez, the new PSOE leader, is in an uncomfortable situation. He's trying to put some distance between himself and PP and, at the same time, he's presenting himself as a rational reformer in opposition to Iglesias' 'populism' or 'unworkable proposals'. Some of Sánchez's ideas sound reasonable, the question is if people trust in him. By the moment, PSOE is still in a huge crisis of confidence. I think a 'Grand Coalition' presided by Rajoy is more likely than a left-wing coalition, but that might be suicidal for PSOE and socialists are aware of that.

Yes I meant PSOE-Podemos(-IU)

Another shocking poll, courtesy of Sigma Dos/El Mundo.


This one is for Catalan elections. If the referendum on independence -foreseen on November 9- don't take place because the Spain's government prevents it, Artur Mas might call for early 'plebiscitary' elections.

Pro-independence ERC would win with 23.2% (13.7% in 2012), followed by the ruling CiU with 19.1% (down from 30.7% in 2012). Rest of parties: PSC 13.8% (14.4%), Podemos 12.4% (-), PP 9.5% (13%), Cs 7.5% (7.6%), ICV-EUiA 5.6% (9.9%) and CUP 3.6% (3.5%).

I think PSC is too high in this poll. However, it suggests that an emergence of Podemos in Catalonia might cause a collapse for ICV-EUiA (as it might happen with IU in Spain) and a halt in the progression of the anti-indepence Cs on the one hand, and the far-left pro-independence CUP on the other hand. 

Emilio Botín, the most powerful banker in Spain and chairman of the largest banking group in the Eurozone (Santander), has died tonight of a heart attack. In 2012 his family was involved in a tax fraud scandal with regard to Swiss accounts; the investigation was dropped when the Botín clan paid back 200 million Euro to the Treasury. The likely heiress of the financial emporium will be Emilio Botín's eldest daughter, Ana Patricia Botín. Ms Botín is currently running the British branch of Banco de Santander and is regarded as one of the most powerful women in the world (the 3rd most powerful woman in Britain behind Elizabeth II and Theresa May, according to a BBC survey).

The mayoress of Madrid, Ana Botella, has announced that she's not going to run in the 2015 local elections. Botella is wife of José María Aznar, former Spain's PM (1996-2004). She inherited a huge debt from her predecessor Alberto Ruíz Gallardón, who is the incumbent minister of Justice. Her management has been marked by several disgraces and is regarded as horrible by many PP members in Madrid. One of the highlights of her tenure was the tragedy of the overcrowded Madrid Arena disco in Halloween 2012, which ended with five girls dead by avalanche. At the height of the crisis, Botella decided to go to a spa in Portugal in order to enjoy a relaxing weekend, because she had planned to do so since time ago. She led the failure of the Madrid Olympic candidacy -while her team took the success for granted- and was mocked in the Spanish media for her (in)famous speech in Buenos Aires ("relaxing cup of café con leche"). Also, she was criticised because of her management of a sweepers' strike in Madrid. Ultimately, Botella was widely unpopular and her staying in office became a huge headache for herself. Some PP members quoted by El Diario say that she didn't feel the need for staying in her post. Besides, she was suffering for being constantly in the public eye and mockery from her own political friends. Polls were devastating for PP with Botella running for reelection and the party needs to keep the Spain's capital, one of the key PP strongholds.

A controversial project on local electoral reform proposed by the Rajoy administration seems to be designed with the aim of retaining Madrid and other major cities across the country. PP is proposing a direct election system in which a candidate who gets 40% of the vote doesn't need a second round and is awarded with a majority in the Council. It's not clear if Rajoy will carry it out. All opposition parties are against and the 'reform' has been widely criticised, as an obvious electioneering device disguised as a measure of 'democratic regeneration' (I wonder why so many politicians in this country adore such meaningless expression).

The list of possible candidates includes former Madrid premier Esperanza Aguirre (she's the most popular candidate, but she's also the main rival of Rajoy in the party and he needs to be really desperate to place the woman), Deputy PM Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría (a Rajoy's protegé), the delegate of the government in Madrid Cristina Cifuentes (there have been rumours on her candidacy before) and Madrid's regional minister of Education Lucía Figar (she's in good terms with Aguirre and Rajoy).

I know that you adore pics, so here you have PP's senior staff in Madrid. From left to right: Esperanza Aguirre, PP's secretary general Dolores de Cospedal, mayoress Ana Botella, Madrid premier Ignacio González, Soraya Sáez de Santamaría and Cristina Cifuentes.
 

Tomorrow is the National Day of Catalonia ( Diada Nacional de Catalunya). Catalan pro-indenpendence campaigners are preparing what they expect will be the definitive demonstration, in order to push ahead for the self-determination referendum on November 9. The National Assembly of Catalonia (ANC) plans to do a massive 11 Km length 'V' uniting the two main avenues of Barcelona, Diagonal and Meridiana. Such 'V' will be made of people wearing T-shirts with the colours of the national flag, which will create a huge senyera. There are more than 455,000 people inscribed, more than the past year's human chain which crossed Catalonia from N to S. The ANC and the independence movement have showed an impressive organisational ability in recent times, so the success of tomorrow's demonstration is guaranteed.

The 'V':

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However, some there are some clouds over the independence process. Recently, Spain's PM stated that "all the measures are ready" to prevent the referendum from taking place, although he didn't provide further details. More importantly, Catalonia has been shocked to the core by the confession of the former Catalan premier Jordi Pujol (1980-2003). Pujol revealed that his family conceived the existence of an inheritance received in September 1980, deposited in a bank in Andorra and for which there weren't paid taxes to the Spain's Treasury. Likely he was forced to confess due for pressures from the Spanish tax inspection, and because he's trying to prevent at all costs the involvement of his sons in the scandal (some of them, such as Oriol Pujol, are being investigated for illegal commission charges and other irregularities). Many people wonder if the money that the Pujols have in banking accounts abroad comes really from an inheritance, as the patriarch claims, or if the family's fortune is the product of bribery. Pujol has been something like the father of the Catalan nation since the early years of La Transición, even former Spain's PM Felipe González tries to defend him stating that he doesn't believe -against all evidence- that the senior Catalan politician is corrupt.

It's hard to measure the impact of the revelations in the independence process. A survey released by El Periódico de Catalunya says that 78.5% of the Catalans think that Pujol and his family are guilty of illegal commission charges; 78.3% and 55.3% think that the scandal will affect negatively the ruling CiU and the foreseen referendum on November 9, respectively.

As for electoral consequences, the survey provides the following figures of raw vote intention:

ERC 19% (-3.4%), CiU 8.4% (-3.2%), Podemos 8.1% (+0.6%), PSC 4.9% (+0.3%), ICV-EUiA 4.5% (-2.3%), Cs 4.4% (-2.7%), PP 3.4% (+0.8%), CUP 1.8% (-2%), undecided 30.4% (+12.9%).

http://estaticos.elperiodico.com/resources/png/3/9/1410122346293.png

Of course, this is not a vote estimation, which I think it will released tomorrow.

Will Rajoy actually suspend the Catalan regional government?

It's hard to say, because Rajoy never gives clues on his decisions. Such a measure would like to his party hardliners, including those who joined the Vox splinter before the EP elections, but I think that our PM and his cabinet realise that it would be counterproductive. There is an historical precedent, when the Catalan Devolution Statute was suspended in 1934 by a republican right-wing government.

As far as the news tell, the Spanish government is planning to appeal to the Constitutional Court as soon as the Catalan Parliament passes a bill on referenda, which is intended to be a legal tool for the one scheduled in November. Constitutional laws have precedence over regional laws in Spain and the appeal would suspend the referendum until the Court rules. Also, the Spain's Attorney General (or the Public Prosecutor, I'm not sure which title fits better) has called his colleagues in Catalonia for a meeting next Thursday, in order to study legal measures against a hypothetical referendum. He lacks the power to act until the Catalan government commits an illegality. In the case that referendum takes place, the prosecutor's office can act against regional officials or, in extreme circumstances, members of the Catalan government.

Meanwhile, there was a parliamentary debate yesterday in Barcelona:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/09/16/inenglish/1410862288_303726.html


By the way, Stéphane Dion was interviewed by some journalist from El País. He said that it's not very useful hiding behind a Constitution, referring to the attitude of the Spanish government towards the problem in Catalonia. In his opinion, it's necessary a legal framework for cases like this. The Clarity Act is cited from time to time by politicians and academicians in Spain. On the other hand, ERC calls for 'civil disobedience' are lacking of support from Scottish nationalism, apparently.

Link to Dion's interview in Spanish, sorry.

http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/09/12/actualidad/1410538218_418493.html

The Parliament of Catalonia is debating right now in order to pass a bill on "consultas no refrendarias"*. I'm unable to translate that into something comprehensible. Anyway, the bill is intended to regulate electoral consultations, in order to provide some legal coverage and allowing the President de la Generalitat (Catalan premier) Artur Mas to sign a decree calling for the referendum in November. Such legal coverage is debatable; the Catalan Socialists (PSC) are going to vote affirmatively together with the 'sovereignist bloc' (CiU, ERC, ICV-EUiA and the CUP) because they think that the bill doesn't provide it. PP and Cs are in radical opposition.

It is not a coincidence that the dabate is taking place the day after the Scottish referendum. "Is it Catalonia less than Scotland?", asked Artur Mas.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/09/19/inenglish/1411128938_425473.html


*EDIT: Something like "non-referendum consultation"? Such a strange denomination seems to be a legal trickery intended to prevent the ban from the Constitutional Court, since regional governments lack the authority to call for referendum consultations. Nationalists claim that the bill passed yesterday is perfectly constitutional.

On the other hand, the Spain's government didn't pass the controversial bill on abortion in the cabinet meeting held this morning. I think the bill was commented in some thread on this board. This is a serious blow for the sponsor of the 'reform', minister of Justice Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón, because the bill is likely to be kept in a drawer for the rest of the legislature. Rajoy decided to shelve the abortion bill for pragmatic reasons, given the great opposition raised against the proposal -even some PP high rank officials disliked it-. He has to face a complicated election year in 2015.

Artur Mas seems to be delaying the signal of the decree calling for the Catalan referendum (the period to do so expires on October 4). Perhaps he's saving time to consider the entry of the ERC in the government or other options. Close secrecy. Rajoy lies in wait.

Anti-abortion activists denounce the Rajoy "treason" for having shelved the abortion bill, threatening to vote Vox instead PP. The party tries to keep up appearances, as if the bill would not be postponed indefinitely, in order to protect Ruiz-Gallardón (there were rumours on his resignation).

Celeste-Tel September survey:

PP 33.1%, PSOE 24.5%, Podemos 16.1%, IU 4.7%, UPyD 4%, Cs 3.7%. Surprisingly, CiU gets 2,5% and ERC only 2%. I wouldn't trust very much in those figures for the Catalan parties. Let's wait what the CIS has to tell.

http://www.celeste-tel.es/images/Barometroelectoralsocialvseptiembre2014.pdf

Minister of JusticeAlberto Ruiz-Gallardón steps down and quit politics:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/09/23/inenglish/1411488300_775544.html


Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón was born in 1958. At the early age of 23 he was prosecutor, on having passed the exams ranking in second place. Shortly after he left that position, in order to join Manuel Fraga's AP  following the steps of his father, a conservative monarchist lawyer and professor who joined the party in 1976. By that time (1983), Ruiz-Gallardón was something like a child prodigy of the Spanish right and the protegé of Fraga; he entered that year in the Madrid city council and three years later was the AP candidate in the Madrid regional elections. Both in the City Council and the Regional Assembly, Ruiz-Gallardón came to the fore as a good opposition speaker, the scourge of the socialists Tierno Galván and Leguina. In the following years the old People's Alliance (AP) became in the present day People's Party (PP). As regional premier (1995-2003) and mayor of Madrid (2003-2011) Ruiz-Gallardón had high approval rates and was even appreciated in the left. By then he was deemed as moderate man of dialogue despite his conservative background, in sharp contrast with the fierce Thatcherite Esperanza Aguirre, the woman who replaced him as regional premier in 2003. The term of Ruiz-Gallardón as mayor of Madrid was marked by the animosity between him and Aguirre and by his ambitious and monumental program of public works, executed in a period of economic boom and which finally ended in a huge municipal debt. Finally, he was appointed Minister of Justice after the 2011 General Elections, being replaced in the mayoralty by Ana Botella. 

Podemos is starting to define the electoral strategy. Pablo Iglesias' team proposed to the party's Civic Assembly not risking the brand Podemos in the municipal elections, given that the movement's local structure is still nascent and they have difficulties to run reliable candidacies in hundreds of municipalities. Municipal elections come too soon for the movement, quoting the text of the proposal: "we must admit to the citizens that we prefer not running in the municipal elections, instead of doing so without offering them full guarantees to their confidence and vote. Our task is not to occupy public offices, but to take effective and irreversible steps for change". Instead, Podemos is going to endorse municipal initiatives like Guanyem in Barcelona or Ganemos in Madrid and other places. Those candidacies (Guanyem and Ganemos mean "Let's Win", while Podemos means "We Can") have in common being a confluence of social movements and activists with left-wing parties, with a clear intent of being citizen's lists instead of an electoral front made by the addition of several parties. Every Guanyem (in the Catalan speaking municipalities) or Ganemos has local particularities. In Barcelona the most outstanding figure of the nascent coalition is Ada Colau, a former spokeswoman of an anti-eviction platform. In Madrid IU and Equo constituted Ganemos weeks ago, stating that they were waiting for Podemos to join.

However, Podemos intends to run in the regional elections with its own brand, because they think said electoral contests are the ideal platform to build momentum for the General Elections, which will take place months later. Also, Podemos made public a draft of the future party's structure, in order to be debated alongside with the electoral proposal. The basic organisational unit and the spine of Podemos will be the local assemblies (Círculos), which will be integrated in a Civic Assembly. The Civic Council, integrated by 63 members elected by the Assembly and the 17 regional secretaries of the movement (this is a novelty), will be the Podemos' Political Directorate. The leader of the party will be called Secretary General (by the moment Podemos has a spokesman, Pablo Iglesias) and directly elected for a three-year period by the Civic Assembly, integrated by all the enrolled activists (120,000 at the moment).

Artur Mas will sign the referendum decree tomorrow morning.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/09/25/inenglish/1411652894_778422.html


It's a good tactical move. On the one hand, Artur Mas forces the Spain's government to meet on Sunday or not later than Monday for an immediate reaction, since Rajoy is currently in China trying to sell the wonders of the economic 'recovery'. On the other hand, the signal of the decree, conveniently staged as an act of unity of the "sovereignist bloc" parties, has been made to coincide with the hearing of Jordi Pujol before the Catalan Parliament, limiting possible adverse effects. The former regional premier and his family are involved in a tax fraud scandal, as it's told in a previous post. Mireia Pujol, one of his daughters, left CDC (Convergència, the Pujol and Mas party and the major CiU partner) in protest for the party's "unfair treatment"  to the patriarch of the Catalan nationalism, the formerly Honorable President.

A couple of polls released this month.

Invymark / La Sexta (October 20):

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Sigma Dos / El Mundo (October 25):

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This one from El Mundo is the first poll showing Podemos ahead of PSOE. I'm not sure if the newspaper from Madrid wants to mobilise voters from the centre to the right resorting to the fear of the "populist far-left". In the first poll the addition PSOE+Podemos+IU is around 47%, whereas in the second is 53%. I think the first figure is more realistic than the second and parties like the ERC are underestimated in the Sigma Dos poll. In any case, a hypothetical left-wing majority doesn't mean necessarily a leftist coalition government. Actually, I think PP-PSOE Grand Coalition is the likeliest outcome after the next year's general elections.

I forgot this scandal, which follows the "black card" scandal in the former Caja Madrid (Bankia). Just another milestone in the collapse of the "regime" and the "political caste", which rottenness becomes ever more evident:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/10/27/inenglish/1414402849_825562.html


This is fuel for Podemos, obviously.

On the Caja Madrid scandal involving PP, PSOE and IU politicians, as well some union members:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/10/06/inenglish/1412589679_102975.html?rel=rosEP

On PP fears (and chronology of this week's events):

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/10/27/inenglish/1414418923_870308.html?rel=rosEP

Holy crap!

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Partido Popular should be renamed to Partido Inpopular.

Everybody is expecting the CIS survey, which should be released this week. Apparently, Podemos takes the lead in raw vote intention, boosted by the corruption scandals. Establishment parties might be facing "shock therapy":

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/03/spanish-politics-shock-therapy-electorate


Transparency International slumped Spain 10 places to rank 40th in the Corruption Perception Index for 2013, "after a spate of scandals hit its ruling centre-right party and the royal family". On the top of the ranking (177 countries) are New Zealand and Denmark, followed by Finland. Somalia, North Korea and Afghanistan are tied in the last place.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/03/spain-global-corruption-index-political-royal-scandal

CIS, Ocotber 2014.

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Sample: 2480. Margin of error: +/- 2%.

Interviews were done between October 1 and 13. Public opinion was under the impact of the "black card" scandal (Caja Madrid/Bankia) and the Ebola crisis. The Metroscopia poll (October 28 and 29) reflects as well the last scandal involving PP.

Estimation: PP 27.5%, PSOE 23.9%, Podemos 22.5%, IU-ICV 4.8%, UPyD 4.1%, CiU 3.8%, ERC 2.3%, Ciudadanos 2.1%, Compromís-Equo 1.1%, PNV 1%, Amaiur 0.9%

Direct vote intention:

Podemos 17.6%, PSOE 14.3%, PP 11.7%, IU-ICV 3.7%, UPyD 2.1%, CiU 2%, ERC 1.9%, Ciudadanos 1.5%

Vote intention + "Sympathy":

Podemos 19.3%, PSOE 18.1%, PP 14.6%, IU-ICV 4.2%, UPyD 2.5%, CiU 2.3%, ERC 2.2%, Ciudadanos 1.9%

Which party did you vote in 2011? (in brackets, vote percentage obtained by each party according to census)

PP 28.3% (30.4%), PSOE 28.3% (19.6%), IU 8.4% (4.7%), UPyD 3.8% (3.2%), CiU 3.2% (2.8%), ERC 2.8% (0.7%), Amaiur 1% (0.9%), PNV 0.9% (0.9%)

http://ep00.epimg.net/descargables/2014/11/05/f65f19988a09564864ddb9414be2f785.pdf

Some graphs from the politikon website explaining the last CIS survey and Podemos.

http://politikon.es/temas/politica/

1) CIS vote estimation (Jan 2012/Oct 2014):

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The CIS still places PP first, although the estimation for the ruling party has fallen from >40% in the beginning of 2012 to a mere 27.5% in October 2014. PSOE remained stable until the EP elections with vote estimations slightly below its 2011 result, with a small 30.2% peak in Jan 2013. After the EP elections, PSOE fell sharply in July (21.2%) to recover in October (23.9%). The surprising performance of Podemos in the EP elections had a carryover effect; the Podemos estimation in July almost doubled its result in May. Far from being temporary, the spectacular rise is amplified in October. In the July survey PSOE is clearly damaged by Podemos, while IU and UPyD are affected to a lesser extent. The October survey shows the socialists gaining some ground, while IU plummets and UPyD continues its decline. The outcome of the EP elections was a serious erosion of the traditional two-party system and showed an increasing fragmentation of the vote, specially in the left. Last polls show an evolution from that trend. PP and PSOE remain weak, gathering a support around 50%. Both parties used to get >70% of the vote since 1982, reaching a 84% peak in the 2008 elections. Meanwhile, Podemos is getting a support comparable to the two main establishment parties. In other words, October polls point to a new three-party system: PP-PSOE-Podemos.

2) Vote intention (spontaneous replies):

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The most spectacular data is the direct vote intention showed by recent polls. Podemos placed second over PSOE in May to take a clear lead in October, while PP falls from the first to the third place. This is clearly an effect of recent corruption scandals, which increased the indignation of a citizenry hardly beaten by the effects of the crisis and the austerity policies. Other data in the CIS survey shows that people has little confidence in the governmental narrative on economic recovery. The main concern of the people is unemployment (76%), followed by corruption.

The CIS survey estimates that PP could be still in first place, in the assumption that its voters are the most reluctant to express confidence in the ruling party which supports an extremely unpopular government. More than 86% distrusts Rajoy and ministers score between 1.5 (José Ignacio Wert, Education) and 2.9 (Soraya Sáez de Santamaría, Deputy PM) in a 1-10 scale. To the contrary, the voters of the emerging Podemos are in all likelihood more ready to say which party they support. It might be a risky presumption.

The estimation of results, familiarly known in Spain as "cocina" ("kitchen"), is surrounded by a great uncertainty amongst the pollsters. The statistic adjust of the raw data becomes increasingly difficult in these agitated times, there are more hidden and undecided voters than ever and the rise of an unprecedented electoral phenomenon. In consequence, the old ways to estimate results based partially on electoral precedents are of no use. Pollsters are suffering what someone has called a "nightmare in the kitchen" and different polls make different estimations based on similar data. On the other hand, the Podemos vote intention was even higher in the Metroscopia poll (22%) in coincidence with a new scandal around PP, with a former PSOE mayor involved as well.

3) Provenance of Podemos support:

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The largest group is people disillusioned with PSOE, followed by "others", former abstainers, and former IU and PP voters. In relative terms, the surge of Podemos damages more IU (46%) than PSOE (25%) or PP (6%) and it's remarkable the impact in UPyD (29%). Obviously, the size of PP and PSOE electoral base is bigger than the one of IU and UPyD.

4) Self perceived location of Podemos supporters on the ideological axis compared to average:

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Pablo Iglesias stresses that Podemos is seeking for the "centrality" of the Spanish politics, as said "central position" is key to win elections. Even though the leaders and the programmatic agenda are clearly on the left, Iglesias rejects to fight the battle in a classical confrontation between the left and the right. Oftentimes Iglesias has stated in speeches that the left has been defeated in all grounds. The Podemos founding core coincides in the uselessness of old left-wing politics such as "popular fronts" or "the union of the left", which is one of the main disagreements between Podemos and IU. The two sides of the axis for Podemos are the economic and political elites ("La Casta") on the one hand, and the common people on the other hand. They use frequently the expression "los de arriba" ("the highly placed") versus "los de abajo" ("the lowly placed"), which resembles me certain Bertolt Brecht poem. It's also a confrontation between "old" and "new" politics. Podemos has claimed to be a "transversal" force with proposals based on "common sense". Stances like those are used by the frightened adversaries to put the "populist" label on Podemos.

In the graph, you can see that the "centrality" in Spain is placed on the centre-left (4 and 5), whereas the bulk of Podemos support is placed on the left (3), with a greater share of support in the milder centre-left (4,5) in comparison with the far-left (1,2), falling abruptly from the 6 onwards. The support for Podemos is more inclined towards the left than the average, but not much more. PSOE's support is largely confined to the centre-left and IU's to the left of the axis, while Podemos lies somewhere between both. It's remarkable that, according to CIS data on spontaneous replies, Podemos support is pretty much interclassist. Podemos natural ground seems to be the precariat and in general the losers of the crisis, also it has a surprisingly high level of support among the highest social categories in the CIS survey. Podemos has the highest vote intention among the 18-34 and 35-54 age groups; only the +65 people is resistant to Podemos' appeal and remains loyal to the establishment parties.  Therefore, the author of the graph concludes in his analysis that Podemos is not a party with an extremist base, nor obviously a centrist deideologised force... even though they have appropriated the concept of "transversality" more successfully than UPyD, the party which claims the ownership of the label. According to that, Podemos is placing itself on the centre of the left to prepare its assault on power.

So if I'm understanding correctly, the 2nd graph is the raw polling data, and the 1st graph is what polling firms estimate the election result would actually be based on the polling data?

Yes, exactly. Also, pollsters are not sure about how to correctly estimate based on raw polling data.

The regional premier of Extremadura, José Antonio Monago (PP), is involved in a vaudevillesque scandal which dates back to his term as Senator. Between 2009 and 2010 Monago made 32 trips to the Canaries -fliying in business class, of course- paid by the Senate. Monago claimed that they were "business trips" to deal with important issues, because he was the responsible for Andalusia and the Canaries in the Senate. However, PP has a good representation of senators from both regions and, when asked, some PP high rank members in the Canaries didn't know the reason of Monago's journeys to the islands and ignored the existence of a supposed Extremadura-Canarias parliamentary commission. Actually, Monago's trips were private. Between 2009 and 2011 the former senator had a relationship with a younger woman living in Tenerife island. Olga Henao (aged 36) is an entrepreneur of Colombian ancestry born in Mexico who lives in Tenerife since some years ago. She's a grassroot PP member in Santa Cruz de Tenerife and admitted to media her relationship with Monago. After that relationship came to an end, she had another relationship with Carlos Muñoz Obón, a PP deputy from Teruel who also made private trips to Tenerife paid by the Congress. Carlos Muñoz has been forced to resign by the Aragon premier Luisa Fernanda Rudi, because his trips might be legal but were unethical. Despite her little rank in PP, Olga Henao was one of the few privileged who assisted to the coronation of king Felipe, because of her relationship with that Aragonese deputy.

The issue, of course, is not the private relationships of PP members but the inappropiate use of public funds for private purposes.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/11/07/inenglish/1415379868_274756.html


"Who is Olga?" (in Spanish but includes a pic of her):

http://www.eldiario.es/tenerifeahora/Olga_0_321968249.html

José Antonio Monago firstly denied the private nature of his trips, claiming that he always went "to work honestly" but failing to explain what he did in Tenerife. Today Monago states that he's going to pay back the money, without admitting he told lies in previous days. Yesterday Monago claimed that the affair was a "conspiracy" to throw him because of his independence. Monago governs with parliamentary support form IU, was opposed to the controversial abortion bill which the government withdrew recently and even stated that he could govern with Podemos if necessary. In a PP meeting in Cáceres which attended Rajoy and several PP regional leaders, Monago had a talk with the Spanish PM and the Aragonese premier and changed his tactic. In the meeting, Monago apologised to "good faith people" for his many mistakes, said that he's a "honest and hard working person" who loves Extremadura and was much applauded by PP members attending. Monago is not going to resign and PP's national leadership supports him.

Sigma Dos / El Mundo:

Glorious news. Health Minister Ana Mato resigns.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/11/27/inenglish/1417074105_387389.html

For the first time, PP expresses willingness to enter in a Grosse Koalition with PSOE. PP secretary general Dolores de Cospedal says that a grand coalition is "not aimed at neutralizing anybody (Podemos) but meant to guarantee the governability of the country". By the moment, socialists say "no, no and no".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/12/02/inenglish/1417539909_575245.html

In other news, Podemos unveiled the first outlines of its economic agenda in a 60 page document signed by economists Juan Torres and Vicenç Navarro. According to El Pais, Podemos "abandons most radical proposals". The document favors an organised restructuring or agreed write-down of the debt, as well the proposal for an universal minimun wage is transformed into a subsidy for all those people without an income*. Seville University lecturer Juan Torres said that the principle of guaranteeing income has its roots in the northern European social democrattic tradition, while Pablo Iglesias said  "the proposals that we are taking up are ones that until not long ago any socialdemocrat was taking up". Some people see in this "socialdemocratic drive" an attempt to erode (even more) PSOE's base and there is concern among socialists, whose strategy in dealing Podemos has changed from accusing them of "populists" to highlight the "extremist background" of the new party's leaders.

*High unemployment rates in addition to the little coverage of unemployment subsidies make that income poverty is affecting around 700 thousand families. In the graph below, unemployment duration (left) and families in income poverty (right).

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Other proposals include fixing retirement age at 65 "on a flexible basis" (the Podemos' manifesto for the EP elections lowered it at 60); and widening public financing through increasing public banking plus an overhaul of the Official Credit Institute (ICO), in order to facilitate access to credit and reactivate the economy.

Podemos will debate the document internally, as well with business leaders and unions.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/11/28/inenglish/1417170085_999647.html

"An Economic Project for the People" (Podemos' document by Torres and Navarro in Spanish):

http://estaticos.elperiodico.com/resources/pdf/7/8/1417174096987.pdf?_ga=1.178926887.2051172562.1417570836

IU coordinator Cayo Lara announced that he's not going to contest leadership in the next year's general elections, paving the way to Alberto Garzón, a 29 year old deputy and economist. So far, Garzón is the only person in IU who has stated his intention to top the IU list.

On the other hand, IU held primaries in Madrid, in order to elect candidates for regional and municipal elections. The list topped by regional deputies Tania Sánchez and Mauricio Valiente achieved a clear victory over the candidacy backed by regional coordinator Eddy Sánchez, although it wasn't the huge landslide that some predicted. The 'official' faction led by Eddy Sánchez was advocating to preserve IU's personality and weigh in future electoral coalitions, while dissidents led by Tania Sánchez are in favour of a full integration in the "Ganemos" platforms (in which IU would converge with other left-wing parties and social movements, maybe including Podemos in local elections... or not) to "build an alternative to PP in Madrid".

IU's 'official' faction has been ruling the Madrid federation in Madrid since the 90s and has been touched by the Caja Madrid (Bankia) "black card" scandal (former IU members spent irregularly thousands of Euros) and the Podemos' surge, which has its strongest support base and membership in the Spain's capital. On her part, Tania Sánchez was accused of supposed irregularities when she was councilor in Rivas-Vaciamadrid by conservative media in the week before the primaries. The debate between factions was soured by allegations on Podemos' "infiltrators" in the electoral roll (IU members and sympathisers were eligible to vote). Also, the fact that Tania Sánchez is girlfriend of the Podemos' leader Pablo Iglesias might have created suspicions among certain people.

How is Podemos polling first without obliterating the PSOE? Whowere Podemos supporters backing before?

Looks like Podemos have nabbed the votes of the minor left-wing parties.

It's a complex question. Podemos is grabbing voters from IU and other minor left-wing parties, as well a good chunk of former PSOE voters, mobilising former abstainers in the left and even taking some voters from PP and UPyD (see graphs on "provenance of Podemos support" a couple of posts before). However, it seems that PSOE is showing some resilience and retains around 20% of the vote. Last polls are quite contradictory. There are results for every taste: some place PP ahead, others say Podemos would win and the last Metroscopia / El País poll shows PSOE in first place, Podemos second and PP third. It seems that pollsters are rather confused.

Also, there is the question of where centrist voters have gone. PP has lost the centre (corruption scandals and the abortion bill didn't help) and seemingly no party is reaping the rewards. According to the CIS October survey, 44% of those who declared having voted PP in 2011 say they have no intention to repeat. That 44% is distributed as you can see in the graph below: Abstention + blank vote above 20%, PSOE and Podemos 6% each, Ciudadanos 3.7% and UPyD 2.2%.

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http://politikon.es/2014/11/12/donde-van-los-votos-del-pp-el-vacio-en-el-centro/

As a result of that void in the centre of the spectrum, the ideological profile of PP voters is drifting rightwards. In previous years until 2011, the plurality was on the centre and centre-right (5-6). The black line representing 2014 shows that 1/2 of PP's support is clearly right-wing (7-8).

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Maybe PSOE resists because it's partly compensating loses to Podemos with some votes from the centre, or maybe it's because voters on the left and centre-left are comparatively more motivated. In any case, Pedro Sánchez is trying to play the card of "sane" reformism against the "groundbreaking" stances of Podemos. The "centrist" parties, UPyD and Cs, seem to be failing to catch moderate voters leaving PP.

Rajoy's hopes to regain support are placed in economic recovery. He assured yesterday in Mexico that Spain will grow more than 2% in 2015, despite predictions from international institutions are more pessimistic. Also, he can play the "fear factor" amongst moderates if Podemos is too high in the polls. However, the public sentiment on the situation of the country (economy, corruption scandals, the problem in Catalonia, and in general a systemic crisis) is far away from the governmental narrative.

PP rams the abusive Citizen Safety Law through Congress, besides provisions on deportation of illegal immigrants. The entire opposition criticised the "gag law", because it's a "legal aberration, "an attack on civil liberties" and " a carte blanche to the police". On deportations, the EU Human Rights Commissioner said recently that "Spain is attempting to make what’s illegal, legal". According to a socialist MP, the law "is a return to a police state" and the government is "using the excuse of security" to "slash citizens".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/12/12/inenglish/1418379884_767333.html


The laws provisions heavy fines in 45 cases without a court order, it's only required an administrative order by the Ministry of Interior. It creates four types of offences or infringements of the law. Very serious offences may result in fines between 30000 and 600000 Euros. The Spanish Huffington Post provides some practical examples:

- Organising a demonstration in front of the court of Palma de Mallorca in protest to the prosecutor's excessive softness with Princess Cristina may result in the maximum penalty (600K), in the case that the Ministry of Interior considers the administration of justice a "basic service to the community". Despite the prosecutor's attempts to hold  Cristina harmless, the judge deems king Felipe's sister a suspect or accused person in the judicial case faced by her husband Iñaki Urdangarín (Noós case).

- Protesting in front of the Congress: between 601 and 30000 Euros.

- Peaceful resistance (sit-ins and the like): between 601 and 30000 Euros.

- Trying to stop an eviction: between 601 and 30000 Euros. Recently a judge imposed a police agent who assaulted an anti-eviction protester a compensation of 480 Euros and two fines by an amount of 300.

- Projecting laser beams on pilots and drivers: very serious offence (until 600000 Euros).

- Filming policemen or taking photographs: between 601 and 30000 Euros. If you protest because policemen are striking people, you may fall in misconduct ("disrespect") and be fined (between 100 and 600 Euros).

- Possesion of hash or weed: between 601 and 30000 Euros.

- Unauthorized public spectacles: between 30001 and 600000 Euros.

- Intrusion in infrastructures or facilities (Greenpeace-style performances): between 601 and 30000 Euros.

http://www.huffingtonpost.es/2014/12/11/ley-mordaza-multas_n_6308020.html

Such a collection of disproportionate fines and sanctions, which the government calls humorously "a democratic advance" and "a guarantee of liberties", is hardly understandable. There's not a justification to curb people's freedom; there aren't violent protests and incidents caused by the social unrest which can be used as alibi, in order to protect frightened peaceful citizens. The authoritarian drive of the government could only be explained as a move to please PP's hardcore voters. As some columnist wrote, perhaps Rajoy thinks that the centre has "disappeared" (as said in the previous post, moderates seem to have joined the ranks of abstainers) and needs to rely in a reduced spectre of voters, appealing to "order" and "fear" (to Podemos) as well as "constitutional stagnation" and "inflexibility" towards the Catalan problem.

No lèse-majesté? Although that penalty for protesting against the Princess sounds close enough.

Are judges independent enough to be able to stuck down that nonsense?

I doubt lése-majesté exists in our legal system. Democratic states contemplate offences of treason, but that's not applicable in this case. Besides, the hypothetical example was a protest against the prosecutor who is being too overprotective with Princess Cristina. By the way, the king's sister is no longer an 'official' member of the royal family and certainly Felipe is angry at her (corrupt) husband.


Individual judges like Pablo Ruz or Julián Castro (the investigator in the scandal involving Cristina's husband) are zealously independent, but the organs of judicial government are appointed by political parties. Pablo Ruz is investigating corruption scandals involving PP (Bárcenas, Gürtel), but the Higher Judicial Council is about to replace him in March taking advantage of the fact that Ruz is a substitute judge.

Hopefully, this nonsense will be repealed after the next elections.