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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/State Elections => Topic started by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2013, 08:00:56 am



Title: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2013, 08:00:56 am
VA results here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2013/by_state/VA_Page_1105.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

VA Governor only:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2013/by_state/VA_Governor_1105.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

NJ results here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2013/by_state/NJ_Page_1105.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

NJ Governor only:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2013/by_state/NJ_Governor_1105.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

NYC results here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2013/by_state/NY_Mayor_1105.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: sg0508 on November 05, 2013, 08:22:52 am
As usual, the GOP will likely be ahead in early returns in VA as downstate usually reports first.  Then, they will get swamped up north and that will be that.  It used be a democratic sweep in the Old Dominion, which is a very poor sign for the GOP in my opinion.

As for NJ, the only question will be, will Christie break Kean's record?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2013, 09:03:05 am
As for NJ, the only question will be, will Christie break Kean's record?

That would be 70% ...

Nope.

But if the Christie result is BIG (2/3 or so), what are the chances that either the House or the Senate in NJ change parties ?

Or will DEM voters vote for Christie in high numbers, but vote to keep their DEM Senators and Reps. ?

What happened when Kean won the landslide ? Did Republicans back then also win one of the two chambers, or both ? Or None ?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2013, 09:28:29 am
Early turnout in some precincts not bad:

Quote
Virginia voters went to the polls Tuesday morning to decide whether to send Democrat Terry McAuliffe or Republican Ken Cuccinelli II to the Executive Mansion and make their picks for other statewide and local offices as well.

Despite a slight glitch with laptop computers in a few precincts in Loudoun County, election officials said the polling process was going smoothly. Several precincts reported a robust early turnout.

At Thomas Jefferson Community Center in Arlington, precinct captain Charles Head said 400 out of 3,000 registered voters — 13 percent — had voted by 8:45 a.m., “extremely heavy for a non-presidential election.”

At the River Oaks precinct in Woodbridge, where massive lines and delays tarnished the 2012 presidential vote, citizens moved through in a steady, efficient stream.

McAuliffe, of McLean, and Cuccinelli, of Nokesville, both showed early in their home precincts to cast their own ballots.

McAuliffe campaigned heavily in the Woodbridge area, along the Route One corridor in one of Virginia’s bellwether counties. Support from the many immigrant and minority voters there is a key part of his election strategy.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/polls-open-across-virginia-in-hotly-contested-governors-race/2013/11/04/06c6205c-45d2-11e3-bf0c-cebf37c6f484_story.html?hpid=z1


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: AUDIT THE AUSTRALIAN PARLIAMENT! on November 05, 2013, 09:29:33 am
What time do the polls close in each respective contest?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2013, 09:54:18 am
What time do the polls close in each respective contest?

VA usually closes at 1am, NJ 2am and NY at 3am, my time.

Subtract 6 hours for local closing times.

Add 7 hours to Western Australia time.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: wasionboy on November 05, 2013, 11:41:37 am
What time do the polls close in each respective contest?

In Virginia polls are open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2013, 12:57:39 pm
Not Christ, but Christie ... ;)

(Image Link)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2013, 12:59:49 pm

Heavy turnout in Arlington

Arlington County’s voters are turning out in higher-than-expected numbers on this Election Day, reports county registrar Linda Lindberg.

“We are probably at 15 percent turnout at 10 a.m., and that’s just the precinct numbers,” said Lindberg. “Our absentee vote was 12 percent, which is about 50 percent higher than four years ago.”

If the turnout continues at this pace, Lindberg expects about half of the county’s 137,000 active registered voters to cast a ballot today — unusually high for an election with no presidential or senate race on the ballot.

At precincts along the central Glebe Road corridor, the turnout has surprised both voters and poll workers.

“We had 40 voters in the first 15 minutes we were open,” said Tyra Baker, precinct captain at Drew Recreational Center, where 329 of more than 2,000 registered voters cast ballots by 10 a.m. “This is extremely busy for a non-presidential year.”

Charles Head, a precinct captain at Thomas Jefferson Community Center, agreed that turnout was “surprisingly heavy.”

“It’s been a steady stream since we opened and it hasn’t stopped,” he said.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/liveblog-live/liveblog/live-updates-election-day-2013/?id=c80e9015-7bab-4cc5-b141-1b5ca16fec14


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2013, 01:12:34 pm
A few pictures:

(Image Link)

(Image Link)

Plus: What's Assad doing in NJ ?

(Image Link)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2013, 01:15:28 pm
I always like when US newspapers write about "high turnout", when - in the end - only 50% of registered (which is not even all 18+ olds) voters turn out.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 05, 2013, 01:55:54 pm
Anything on NJ turnout yet?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Hifly on November 05, 2013, 02:08:24 pm
Don't forget the WA Senate special election today- Appointed Democratic Incumbent Nathan Schlicher is trying to fend of a challenge from Republican Jan Angel. I think Angel has the advantage.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 05:57:59 pm
Early VA exit polls: electorate demographics are like 2012's, not 2009's (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/liveblog-live/liveblog/live-updates-election-day-2013/?id=2581f6e5-ee39-4b0f-9109-b80405fc52f7)

40% of voters are Democrats and 30% are non-white. Dominating.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 05, 2013, 06:07:45 pm
Early VA exit polls: electorate demographics are like 2012's, not 2009's (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/liveblog-live/liveblog/live-updates-election-day-2013/?id=2581f6e5-ee39-4b0f-9109-b80405fc52f7)

40% of voters are Democrats and 30% are non-white. Dominating.

Italophobia is always a good motivation for the Democratic base.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Beezer on November 05, 2013, 06:40:47 pm
Send Cuccinelli back to the Mezzogiorno!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 06:44:34 pm
NYC Early Exit Polls:

Voters approve of Bloomberg 52-45

Despite this, 70% say they would rather a new direction than a continuation of his policies

Voters disapprove of stop-and-frisk 55-39

Despite this, Ray Kelly's approval is at 65%

And unlike in Virginia, where everyone hates everyone, 87% of voters chose their candidate because they liked him

http://www.nytimes.com/news/election-2013/2013/11/05/new-york-exit-poll-ready-for-change/?smid=tw-share


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 06:48:04 pm
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2013/results

Here's another interesting results page.

Can't wait for the results to come in!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 07:01:18 pm
NBC: T-MAC LEADS EARLY EXIT POLLS, TOO EARLY TO CALL
LT GOV, AT GEN ALSO TOO EARLY TOO CALL

T-Mac: 50
Kook: 43
Sarvis: 7


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 07:04:29 pm
T-Mac leads women 54-38, Kook leads men 47-46


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: User157088589849 on November 05, 2013, 07:04:39 pm
What chances both candidates fail to get 50% of the vote in Virginia?

What would be the bad/expected/excellent % totasl for Christie?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 07:06:40 pm
T-Mac leads women 54-38, Kook leads men 47-46

Wow! Cuccinelli only wins men by 1 point!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 07:07:38 pm
What chances both candidates fail to get 50% of the vote in Virginia?

What would be the bad/expected/excellent % totasl for Christie?


Very little, I expect McAuliffe to get around 51% of the vote.

Christie:

Bad: 55-59
Expected: 60-63
Excellent: 64+


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 07:07:45 pm
Here are the VA exit poll results: http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/virginia/exit-polls.html

Not sure if there's anything for Lt. Gov or Attorney General.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2013, 07:08:22 pm
Virginia's State Board of Elections results page:
http://electionresults.virginia.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=SWR&map=CTY

Results are available down to the precinct level.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: User157088589849 on November 05, 2013, 07:08:34 pm
95-5 black voters. That is a shocking stat for the republican party to take in.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 05, 2013, 07:11:38 pm
Feeling pretty good about my McAuliffe +5% prediction.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 07:13:15 pm
Here's a good chart of county result benchmarks, based on the last three elections and a hypothetical T-Mac 7.5% win: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0AvOrrxBeaarVdFQ1NGJLa1UyMVpRYjZTTVZ1aVE2V0E&toomany=true#gid=0


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 07:13:56 pm
FIRST VOTES ARE BEING COUNTED OMG


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 05, 2013, 07:14:56 pm
95-5 black voters. That is a shocking stat for the republican party to take in.

Let's see how Christie does. Cuccinelli was always going to go over like a lead ballon with blacks.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 07:16:16 pm
lol, Obamacare (48-50) is more popular in Virginia than Obama himself (46-53)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: memphis on November 05, 2013, 07:17:07 pm
Only 1% of voters lack a high school diploma, but 63% have at least a Bachelor's? Pants on fire!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 07:19:18 pm
Northam is leading Jackson with the same vote that has Cuccinelli up by a little bit, lol!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: njwes on November 05, 2013, 07:19:55 pm
95-5 black voters. That is a shocking stat for the republican party to take in.

Nah that's pretty par for the course for the last 4 decades, give or take 5%


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 07:20:30 pm
New wave of exit poll numbers coming in, Obama's approval is now 48-52 in the updated exits.

Looks like a lot of Democratic late voters. Hallelujah!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 05, 2013, 07:21:56 pm
95-5 black voters. That is a shocking stat for the republican party to take in.

Not with Cooch.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: memphis on November 05, 2013, 07:25:09 pm
So, it looks like Big Mac will win fairly comfortably and without much suspense. Anybody care to predict individual counties/ind cities to make it more interesting? Can he carry Virginia Beach? Anything west of I-81?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Badger on November 05, 2013, 07:26:32 pm
Here's a good chart of county result benchmarks, based on the last three elections and a hypothetical T-Mac 7.5% win: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0AvOrrxBeaarVdFQ1NGJLa1UyMVpRYjZTTVZ1aVE2V0E&toomany=true#gid=0

Not much use considering it doesn't take 3rd party vote for the numerical benchmarks.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: User157088589849 on November 05, 2013, 07:29:06 pm
Has any republican ever got lower than 5% of the vote from the african community in a state wide election?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 05, 2013, 07:30:05 pm
Has any republican ever got lower than 5% of the vote from the african community in a state wide election?

Maybe McCain or Gilmore in 2008.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 07:32:07 pm
7% in, Kook leads by 14%, the Lt Gov race is a tie, and Obenshain leads by 15%

Interesting that Obenshain doesn't seem to be doing any better than Kook so far...


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 05, 2013, 07:32:18 pm
95-5 black voters. That is a shocking stat for the republican party to take in.

Nah that's pretty par for the course for the last 4 decades, give or take 5%

That's not quite true. Republicans never really did this poorly with blacks pre-Obama. When Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole in a blowout in '96, he only won the black vote 84%-12% for example.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Badger on November 05, 2013, 07:35:43 pm
7% in, Kook leads by 14%, the Lt Gov race is a tie, and Obenshain leads by 15%

Interesting that Obenshain doesn't seem to be doing any better than Kook so far...

Obenshain better do substantially better than Cooch in the NOVA counties yet to report or he's toast.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 07:36:43 pm
7% in, Kook leads by 14%, the Lt Gov race is a tie, and Obenshain leads by 15%

Interesting that Obenshain doesn't seem to be doing any better than Kook so far...

Obenshain better do substantially better than Cooch in the NOVA counties yet to report or he's toast.

Yeah, though to be fair that's exactly where you'd expect him to do better than Cooch. So we'll see...


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: JerryArkansas on November 05, 2013, 07:37:41 pm
Who else thinks the dem will get 60+ on Jackson?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Badger on November 05, 2013, 07:38:55 pm
7% in, Kook leads by 14%, the Lt Gov race is a tie, and Obenshain leads by 15%

Interesting that Obenshain doesn't seem to be doing any better than Kook so far...

Obenshain better do substantially better than Cooch in the NOVA counties yet to report or he's toast.

Yeah, though to be fair that's exactly where you'd expect him to do better than Cooch. So we'll see...

Oh I agree totally. But my point is he should also be doing better than a single point over Cooch even downstate, so......


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 07:40:29 pm
Who else thinks the dem will get 60+ on Jackson?

I think its actually quite likely.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2013, 07:42:00 pm
7% in, Kook leads by 14%, the Lt Gov race is a tie, and Obenshain leads by 15%

Interesting that Obenshain doesn't seem to be doing any better than Kook so far...

Obenshain better do substantially better than Cooch in the NOVA counties yet to report or he's toast.

Yeah, though to be fair that's exactly where you'd expect him to do better than Cooch. So we'll see...

Oh I agree totally. But my point is he should also be doing better than a single point over Cooch even downstate, so......

Obenshain is doing 5-6 points better than Cooch according to the State Board of Elections' numbers, which are running ahead of the AP tally.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 07:42:31 pm
First big Dem victory of the night. Dems capture the St. Petersburg mayor's office from the GOP in Florida; good warm up act for the House special.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 07:42:45 pm
With 9% in...

McAuliffe (D): 39.5%
Cuccinelli (R): 52.0%
Sarvis (L): 8.4%

Herring (D): 42.1%
Obershain (R): 57.9%

Northam (D): 48.5%
Jackson (R): 51.5%

Some rural republican parts are in. Seeing as these are rural republican parts, these are not good for republicans!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: sg0508 on November 05, 2013, 07:44:29 pm
Two very interesting notes from the VA Exit Polls:

1) Democrats now outweigh Republicans in VA? Hmmmmm.  Wow if true even though the democrats have been on a roll in the past few cycles (outside of 2010).

2) Those with post-graduate degrees favored the democrats bigtime.  Wow.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 07:45:02 pm
Fairfax coming in now; T-Mac running about at Obama 2012 margins.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Badger on November 05, 2013, 07:45:25 pm
7% in, Kook leads by 14%, the Lt Gov race is a tie, and Obenshain leads by 15%

Interesting that Obenshain doesn't seem to be doing any better than Kook so far...

Obenshain better do substantially better than Cooch in the NOVA counties yet to report or he's toast.

Yeah, though to be fair that's exactly where you'd expect him to do better than Cooch. So we'll see...

Oh I agree totally. But my point is he should also be doing better than a single point over Cooch even downstate, so......

Obenshain is doing 5-6 points better than Cooch according to the State Board of Elections' numbers, which are running ahead of the AP tally.

Thanks Cynic. That's brighter news for Obenshain, but probably still a bit short.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: sg0508 on November 05, 2013, 07:46:27 pm
With 9% in...

McAuliffe (D): 39.5%
Cuccinelli (R): 52.0%
Sarvis (L): 8.4%

Herring (D): 42.1%
Obershain (R): 57.9%

Northam (D): 48.5%
Jackson (R): 51.5%

Some rural republican parts are in. Seeing as these are rural republican parts, these are not good for republicans!
Northern VA always reports later.  The GOP would need to be near 60% in the rurals areas to win. Not even a contest.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2013, 07:47:05 pm
So, extrapolating from what we have now, probably Jackson loses by double-digits, Cuccinelli high single-digits, and Obenshain low single-digits? Shame.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 07:48:52 pm
I don't think Terry is going to win by high single-digits. He's not doing much better (in some cases worse actually) than 2012 Obama.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: InvisibleTrump on November 05, 2013, 07:54:15 pm
So, extrapolating from what we have now, probably Jackson loses by double-digits, Cuccinelli high single-digits, and Obenshain low single-digits? Shame.
The Christieslide in NJ will make up for a fairly narrow loss in a toss up state.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on November 05, 2013, 07:54:25 pm
Virginia House (leading so far):

GOP: 48
DEM: 18



Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 07:54:40 pm
Here are the VA House results: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2013/by_state/VA_House_of_Delegates_1105.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lurker on November 05, 2013, 07:56:31 pm
Is McAuliffe doing better or worse than Obama's 2012 numbers? I read somebody saying he was slightly underperforming Obama, is this correct?

If so, this election could be really close after all ("Shy Cuccinelli voters"?).


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 05, 2013, 07:58:03 pm
Cooch is sweeping Appalachia :(


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 07:58:16 pm
Is McAuliffe doing better or worse than Obama's 2012 numbers? I read somebody saying he was slightly underperforming Obama, is this correct?

If so, this election could be really close after all ("Shy Cuccinelli voters"?).

He's doing about the same so far, maybe slightly (1% or so) worse. But very little of Northern Virginia is in yet. He'll presumably outperform Obama 2012 there.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: sg0508 on November 05, 2013, 07:59:27 pm
It's very unusual though for the presidency to remain in democratic hands and then the following year for the democrats to sweep VA clean.  

Is the Old Dominion becoming the next of a line of states (i.e. CO, OR, MN, etc) where the GOP is becoming unelectable with an empty cabinet?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 08:01:02 pm
Chris Christie projected winner.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: sg0508 on November 05, 2013, 08:02:13 pm
And the polls have closed in NJ.  Christie projected based upon exit polls.  What was Kean's percentage he's looking to exceed?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: InvisibleTrump on November 05, 2013, 08:02:23 pm
Have they even counted the votes yet? Or was this a joke? :P


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 05, 2013, 08:02:34 pm

How did you find out?

Excellent news anyways. :D


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 08:02:52 pm
Have they even counted the votes yet? Or was this a joke? :P

Two words: Exit polls.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 08:03:18 pm

Watching MSNBC live.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 08:03:41 pm
Christie right at 60% in the exit poll.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 08:05:04 pm
Christie improved quite a bit with blacks (winning 19%) but his numbers with Hispanics aren't that much better than generic Republican (31%).


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 05, 2013, 08:05:58 pm
95-5 black voters. That is a shocking stat for the republican party to take in.

Let's see how Christie does. Cuccinelli was always going to go over like a lead ballon with blacks.

21% of blacks, 45% of Hispanics.  (from CNN exits)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 05, 2013, 08:06:58 pm
Almost all of Buchanan Couty is in and T-Mac is losing 66-32, worse than Obama :P


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: InvisibleTrump on November 05, 2013, 08:07:05 pm
Christieslide!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 05, 2013, 08:07:53 pm
Have they even counted the votes yet? Or was this a joke? :P

Two words: Exit polls.
[/quote]

Do you know when the votes will start rolling in?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 08:08:36 pm
95-5 black voters. That is a shocking stat for the republican party to take in.

Let's see how Christie does. Cuccinelli was always going to go over like a lead ballon with blacks.

21% of blacks, 45% of Hispanics.

That's amazing! Can't wait to see the white margin


Do you know when the votes will start rolling in?
[/quote]

Soon.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 08:09:18 pm
McAuliffe getting 70% in Arlington. Cuccinelli dominating Southwestern Virginia, and Cuccinelli narrowly leading Virginia Beach.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 08:09:30 pm
NBC declares Northam the winner in Virginia.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: sg0508 on November 05, 2013, 08:10:07 pm
Again, what was Kean's percentage he's trying to break? My guess a month ago was Christie at 59%.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 05, 2013, 08:11:05 pm
Can't wait to see how my hometown voted.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 08:11:26 pm
Think Virginia might turn out closer than expected...


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lurker on November 05, 2013, 08:12:17 pm
Is McAuliffe doing better or worse than Obama's 2012 numbers? I read somebody saying he was slightly underperforming Obama, is this correct?

If so, this election could be really close after all ("Shy Cuccinelli voters"?).

He's doing about the same so far, maybe slightly (1% or so) worse. But very little of Northern Virginia is in yet. He'll presumably outperform Obama 2012 there.

Thanks.

Looks like this will be much closer than most of the polls predicted. I thought that the polls might have been slightly off here; presumably the chance of that happening is higher in a low turnout race  like this than, say, a presidential election.

Sad to see that Virginia might actually elect Cuccinelli governor.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 08:12:46 pm
Think Virginia might turn out closer than expected...

Don't get pessimistic, Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia has a LOT to come in yet.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 05, 2013, 08:13:29 pm
Again, what was Kean's percentage he's trying to break? My guess a month ago was Christie at 59%.

71%.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2013, 08:15:06 pm
Hang on, but isn't Obenshain supposed to overperform Cuccinelli more so in NoVa than Appalachia? If he's going 7 ahead now, it seems possible that could rise to 8-9, which should definitely be enough to overcome Herring.

Does seem interesting that Cuccinelli-McAuliffe is going to likely be at Obama levels (worse in Appalachia, better in NoVa, should even out). Obama only won Virginia by 4%; that's a good deal less than the 7-8 margin predicted for McAuliffe. Very premature to be discussing this, but any thoughts on why this is the case? Issues with the polls themselves, or was there movement in the final days? If the latter, why?

NBC declares Northam the winner in Virginia.

#upset

Again, what was Kean's percentage he's trying to break? My guess a month ago was Christie at 59%.

Kean was reelected 70-29 in 1985, but I don't think that was ever realistic in the modern day New Jersey. For either party.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Beezer on November 05, 2013, 08:16:28 pm
47% McAuliffe
45% Cuccinelli

CNN Exit Poll


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 08:16:43 pm
NBC now classifying Virginia as "too close to call." Not good.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 08:17:31 pm
47% McAuliffe
45% Cuccinelli

CNN Exit Poll

NBC now classifying Virginia as "too close to call." Not good.

Wow, looks like the last minute boost for Cuccinelli could actually be true.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: sg0508 on November 05, 2013, 08:19:38 pm
Relax.  Six point win for McAuliffe.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lurker on November 05, 2013, 08:21:01 pm
There will be less than 1% point separating McAuliffe and Cuccinelli, I think. This looks damn close.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: User157088589849 on November 05, 2013, 08:21:47 pm
Anyone noticing that McAuliffe is doing better in smaller population counties and doing worse in the big counties???

Looks like a Clinton map, focused on small pockets rather than an army of urbanized vote carpet bombers sweeping the election away.

Numbers are not great from Loudoun and Prince William. These usually are the ones to stare at. Seem slightly down on the dems.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 05, 2013, 08:22:23 pm
Sarvis appears to be holding up as well.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 08:23:10 pm
AG race has tightened to 54.6% - 45.4% with only 33% in. Not good for the republicans.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: sg0508 on November 05, 2013, 08:23:30 pm
Think about it this way.  When was the last time that a candidate was NEVER ahead in any poll the month prior to election day and somehow won?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Beezer on November 05, 2013, 08:23:58 pm
Dean Young up 11-7 in AL-1.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: User157088589849 on November 05, 2013, 08:24:34 pm
Think about it this way.  When was the last time that a candidate was NEVER ahead in any poll the month prior to election day and somehow won?

Al Gore 2000 and he did win. Best political comeback ever!!! New Mexico, Oregon, Iowa and Florida all wafer thin margins but good enough!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 08:24:59 pm
Loudon and Prince William are bellweathers. T-Mac leads by about 1% in both so far.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 05, 2013, 08:25:47 pm
McAwful indeed.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: National Progressive on November 05, 2013, 08:26:05 pm
The results right now in Virginia are terrible so far...


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 08:26:57 pm
Loudon and Prince William are bellweathers. T-Mac leads by about 1% in both so far.

There are some very Republican areas in those counties and we have no idea where the vote is coming in from.

I do think Sarvis is going to save T-Mac.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 05, 2013, 08:27:11 pm
WaPo has result maps for Gov, LG and AG:
http://apps.washingtonpost.com/elections/guide/2013/VA/general/


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2013, 08:27:56 pm
Looks like we are headed for McAuliffe victory by 3 points or so.  Looks like AG is +2 R relative to Governor so it will be very close there and down to the wire.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 05, 2013, 08:28:06 pm
Cuccinelli's rise may not have been a dead cat bounce after all.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: King on November 05, 2013, 08:28:42 pm
Think about it this way.  When was the last time that a candidate was NEVER ahead in any poll the month prior to election day and somehow won?

We've never had a race between two such disliked candidates.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 05, 2013, 08:29:20 pm
Yes, it's hard not to feel a little sorry for the voters of Virginia.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2013, 08:29:44 pm
Relax.  Six point win for McAuliffe.

This is based on?...


I wonder which side he takes more voters from -- I remember in a lot of Senate races in 2012, the Republican candidate was generally the second choice (this was the case in Montana and Indiana), but Johnson's supporters actually narrowly had Obama as their second-choice.

Does anyone remember at what time in Election Night 2012 did Obama overtake Romney in Virginia?

Think about it this way.  When was the last time that a candidate was NEVER ahead in any poll the month prior to election day and somehow won?

Christy Clark, earlier this year. Alison Redford last year. In the US, pretty sure Bill Owens, in the 2009 Upstate New York special, had never led in a poll -- it was Scozzafava, then Hoffman. Plus I haven't heard anyone predict Cuccinelli winning outright, just a narrower-than-expected T-Mac victory.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: User157088589849 on November 05, 2013, 08:29:53 pm
Loudoun is ok

Prince William the numbers are terrible for the democrats.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2013, 08:30:21 pm
Of course Loudon and Fairfax only have votes counted in the teens so it could still turn more McAuliffe 's way for him to win a 5-6 point victory.  We will see.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Beezer on November 05, 2013, 08:30:32 pm
McAuliffe will pass Cuccinelli with 80% of precincts reporting.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Flake on November 05, 2013, 08:31:01 pm
Loudoun is ok

Prince William the numbers are terrible for the democrats.

McAullife is up by 6 in Prince William County.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2013, 08:31:40 pm
In McAuliffe's favor is Arlington is mostly counted and he is running ahead of Obama by a couple of points.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 08:32:01 pm
Usually the more suburban parts of the NOVA counties report first, the inner precincts report last.  So I think the margins might tick up more in the Democrats favor.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: sg0508 on November 05, 2013, 08:32:10 pm
45% in...Cucinelli by 5%.  Of course, there are no live maps this year to show where the counted votes are coming from.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on November 05, 2013, 08:32:28 pm
Think about it this way.  When was the last time that a candidate was NEVER ahead in any poll the month prior to election day and somehow won?

We've never had a race between two such disliked candidates.

Pretty much.

No one was excited to vote today.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: User157088589849 on November 05, 2013, 08:32:34 pm
Norfolk  county numbers are shocking for the democrats. They are waaay behind there on 2012 levels.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: rob in cal on November 05, 2013, 08:32:41 pm
Any info on the Sarvi voters in terms of who their second choice would have been if there had been a runoff?  Looks like another race where GOP would benefit from either Austrailian/Irish style IRV voting or a French style runoff system.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 08:32:48 pm
Obama won Buckingham County twice, but Cuccinelli carried it tonight.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 05, 2013, 08:33:16 pm
Think about it this way.  When was the last time that a candidate was NEVER ahead in any poll the month prior to election day and somehow won?

We've never had a race between two such disliked candidates.

I seem to remember a certain Nevada US Senate Race not too long ago.

Anyways, as a Canadian, I must laugh at the original statement.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2013, 08:33:39 pm
It is clear that McAuliffe is running behind Obama in Southern Virgina urban areas.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 05, 2013, 08:33:54 pm
47% McAuliffe
45% Cuccinelli

CNN Exit Poll

Wow, some excitement!

I can't stand McAuliffe and the Clintons so I can live with them getting some egg on their faces by nearly losing to this joker.

Of course, I hope Cuccinelli doesn't actually win. He is a horror.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 08:34:34 pm
Cuccinelli won in the City of Williamsburg


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: User157088589849 on November 05, 2013, 08:35:01 pm
Loudoun is ok

Prince William the numbers are terrible for the democrats.

McAullife is up by 6 in Prince William County.

I have it 48-47 14% reporting;


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2013, 08:36:01 pm
45% in...Cucinelli by 5%.  Of course, there are no live maps this year to show where the counted votes are coming from.

Precinct-level results are available from the State Board of Elections' website by clicking on the individual county results here:
http://electionresults.virginia.gov/resultsCTY.aspx?type=SWR&rid=315&osn=4&map=CTY


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 08:36:13 pm
45% in...Cucinelli by 5%.  Of course, there are no live maps this year to show where the counted votes are coming from.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2013/results

Only Virginia unfortunately. New Jersey will have maps later I suspect. (Or now if anybody can find it).


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 05, 2013, 08:36:26 pm

Part of me always thought he'd figure out a way to lose. He always seems to.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Beezer on November 05, 2013, 08:36:34 pm
48-45 Coochy. Leading by 40,000.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: User157088589849 on November 05, 2013, 08:36:54 pm
It is clear that McAuliffe is running behind Obama in Southern Virgina urban areas.

he's taking a beating in the south east. the numbers are awful.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: sg0508 on November 05, 2013, 08:37:03 pm
And here comes northern VA.  57% in now and the candidates are near even.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 08:37:21 pm
61% reporting:

Kook +3.5%
Obenshain +6%


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 08:37:38 pm
I don't think this is as close as everyone is saying, I'd be shocked if it's only 2 points.  McAuliffe is only behind by 3 points and 75% of Fairfax hasn't been counted.  Almost none of Charlottesville has been counted, there are still a lot of votes in Arlington and Alexandria as well...


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Flake on November 05, 2013, 08:37:45 pm
http://electionresults.virginia.gov/ShowMap.aspx?iframe&cat=CTY&rid=315&type=SWR&osn=4&pty=0&cty=0&map=CTY

This map is straight from the Virginia Board of Elections! :D


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: User157088589849 on November 05, 2013, 08:39:37 pm
http://electionresults.virginia.gov/ShowMap.aspx?iframe&cat=CTY&rid=315&type=SWR&osn=4&pty=0&cty=0&map=CTY

This map is straight from the Virginia Board of Elections! :D

thanks :) i hope norfolk looks better there.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on November 05, 2013, 08:39:42 pm
61.16% in:

Cuccinelli: 48.03%
McAuliffe: 44.66%


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 05, 2013, 08:40:16 pm
Norfolk  county numbers are shocking for the democrats. They are waaay behind there on 2012 levels.

There's only a minority of precincts reporting so far.  (and it's actually the City of Norfolk)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 05, 2013, 08:42:22 pm
Sarvis continues to hold steady at 7%.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2013, 08:42:32 pm
If I were Cuccinelli I would be very angry at Sarvis.  Without Sarvis it seems that Cuccinelli would have a good chance to win looking at these results.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 08:42:39 pm
I think T-Mac will win by 3% or so. Which means a pure tossup for AG, if the relationship between those two races stays the same.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: memphis on November 05, 2013, 08:42:58 pm
So, they're changing the exit polls to conform with the actual results? Doesn't that defeat the purpose of having exit polls?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2013, 08:44:17 pm
So, they're changing the exit polls to conform with the actual results? Doesn't that defeat the purpose of having exit polls?

That's what they always do.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: InvisibleTrump on November 05, 2013, 08:44:31 pm
If I were Cuccinelli I would be very angry at Sarvis.  Without Sarvis it seems that Cuccinelli would have a good chance to win looking at these results.
Hopefully it will send a message to my party that sane, non Tea Party libertarians are the future of our party.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2013, 08:44:34 pm
So, they're changing the exit polls to conform with the actual results? Doesn't that defeat the purpose of having exit polls?

Yes.  But this what they did in 2004.  All exit polls had Kerry winning in swing states and then as the results came in for Bush, THEY CHANGED THE EXIT POLLS.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 05, 2013, 08:44:39 pm
Christie is at 60% with 3% of precincts reporting. Buono has 38%.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Beezer on November 05, 2013, 08:44:43 pm
68% in, Coochy by 30,000 votes (47.5-45.2).


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: User157088589849 on November 05, 2013, 08:45:00 pm
2012 Chesterfield county 53-45 Romney +8
2013 Chesterfield county 49-41 Cuccinelli +8

2-3pt race.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Indy Texas on November 05, 2013, 08:45:47 pm
If I were Cuccinelli I would be very angry at Sarvis.  Without Sarvis it seems that Cuccinelli would have a good chance to win looking at these results.

"My platform is so repugnant that a sizable part of the Republican/conservative-leaning electorate refuses to vote for me. Therefore it's all the fault of the man they're choosing to vote for instead."


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Scott on November 05, 2013, 08:45:55 pm
So what happens if Sarvis gets at least 10% of the vote?  Will it just be easier for Libertarians to get on the ballot in Virginia?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 08:45:59 pm
They always change the exit polls. They compare the results from the precincts they polled once they come in to their survey results. That's how they're then able to call the race before 100% of votes are counted.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 08:46:17 pm
Update:

65% In

Virginia Governor:

McAuliffe (D) - 44.5%
Cuccinelli (R) - 48.4%
Sarvis (L) - 7.1%

Lt. Governor:

Northam (D) - 52.4%
Jackson (R) - 47.6%

Attorney General:

Herring (D) - 46.5%
Obershain (R) - 53.5%

New Jersey Governor (5% in)

Christie (R) - 61.1%
Buono (D) - 37.4%


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: memphis on November 05, 2013, 08:46:42 pm
If I were Cuccinelli I would be very angry at Sarvis.  Without Sarvis it seems that Cuccinelli would have a good chance to win looking at these results.
The exit poll shows Sarvis doing better with liberals and independents than conservatives. In particular, he's getting a large number of young people. I'm not sure that I trust these exit polls, but they don't suggest that he is drawing Cuccinelli voters.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2013, 08:46:45 pm
What is interesting is that Sarvis is running strong in places where Cuccinelli is running strong AND McAuliffe running about the same as Obama.  This means that  Sarvis took votes away from  Cuccinelli big time.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 08:47:02 pm
TMac's lead is growing in Loudoun and Prince William...


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Flake on November 05, 2013, 08:47:12 pm
Cuccinelli up by 2.3

47.52% Cuccinelli
45.22% McAullife

Northam up by 6.5

53.17% Northam
46.61% Jackson

Obenshain up by 4.9

52.40% Obenshain
47.47% Herring


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: sg0508 on November 05, 2013, 08:47:22 pm
I wonder if VA Beach is fully counted.  Cucinelli by 3 pts there.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 08:48:43 pm
Who wants to say Obershain makes it?

What is interesting is that Sarvis is running strong in places where Cuccinelli is running strong AND McAuliffe running about the same as Obama.  This means that  Sarvis took votes away from  Cuccinelli big time.

Yeah, there was never any doubt Sarvis voters leaned heavily right.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on November 05, 2013, 08:49:21 pm
67.89% in

Cuccinelli: 47.52%
McAuliffe: 45.22%
Sarvis:       6.96%

R +2.3

McAuliffe has this.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 08:49:40 pm
As I noted before would probably happen, McAuliffe's margin is expanding in the northern counties, especially Fairfax.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 08:50:54 pm
Herring actually doing better than T-Mac in Loudoun and Prince William... um...


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 05, 2013, 08:51:27 pm
If the exit poll holds up (big if) Christie's margin of victory is going to be smaller than basically any of the public polls showed.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: User157088589849 on November 05, 2013, 08:52:21 pm
i got 70% in 48-45 race.

vote is good in loudoun, fairfax for dems. still not good in prince william county.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 05, 2013, 08:52:30 pm
Connolly leads Walsh in Boston 52-48 with 17% reporting.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 08:52:53 pm
Falls Church is 100% and T-Mac's margin is 10 points more than Obama 2012's. Looking like the freak out earlier was unwarranted.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2013, 08:53:00 pm
Herring actually doing better than T-Mac in Loudoun and Prince William... um...

As he is statewide - because there's no third-party candidate to siphon votes in the AG's race.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 08:53:03 pm
The outlying vote is mostly urban. McAuliffe wins for sure, Obershain vs. Herring should be dead heat.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 05, 2013, 08:53:06 pm
I wonder if VA Beach is fully counted.  Cucinelli by 3 pts there.

81/95 precincts reporting.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: sg0508 on November 05, 2013, 08:53:11 pm
If the exit poll holds up (big if) Christie's margin of victory is going to be smaller than basically any of the public polls showed.
Keep in mind that he's the minority party.  Most undecided voters probably broke democratic today and in addition, some democrats in a blue state will always come home. I predicted he wouldn't hit 60%.  We'll see if I'm right.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Beezer on November 05, 2013, 08:55:56 pm
Byrne 1,204
Young 1,197


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2013, 08:56:25 pm
Polls closing in NY soon.  I love to find out results of Westchester County Executive which was the key race I vote in today.  Given how bad we are at counting votes I doubt I will find out tonight the result.  Sigh.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 08:56:31 pm
Herring actually doing better than T-Mac in Loudoun and Prince William... um...

As he is statewide - because there's no third-party candidate to siphon votes in the AG's race.

No, his margin is better. Terry is +1% in Prince William right now, Herring is +4. In Loudoun, Herring is +7, T-Mac is +5.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 08:57:14 pm
McAuliffe is under performing Obama in Northern Virginia so far. Surprise?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 05, 2013, 08:58:00 pm
RRH says Obenshain is running behind their benchmarks.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on November 05, 2013, 08:58:28 pm
74.10% in

Cuccinelli: 47.35%
McAuliffe:  45.42%
Sarvis:        6.94%

R +1.93


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 08:58:38 pm
McAuliffe is under performing Obama in Northern Virginia so far. Surprise?

Nah, the more Democratic parts of NoVA aren't in yet. Look at the counties that are almost or fully counted (Arlington, Falls Church): T-Mac is actually doing better than Obama 2012 in them.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 09:00:05 pm
McAuliffe is under performing Obama in Northern Virginia so far. Surprise?

Nah, the more Democratic parts of NoVA aren't in yet. Look at the counties that are almost or fully counted (Arlington, Falls Church): T-Mac is actually doing better than Obama 2012 in them.

That's probably true.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Beezer on November 05, 2013, 09:00:27 pm
McAuliffe is under performing Obama in Northern Virginia so far. Surprise?

Obama won Fairfax Co. by 20, McAuliffe is leading Fairfax by 20. Obama won Loudoun by 4.5, McAuliffe is leading by 5.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 09:01:05 pm
Sarvis got 10% Henrico County


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Scott on November 05, 2013, 09:02:14 pm
Congratulations, Mayor de Blasio!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 05, 2013, 09:02:44 pm
NY Times calls the NYC Mayoral race for de Blasio.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Beezer on November 05, 2013, 09:02:58 pm
Cooch leading by 22,000 with 80% in.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on November 05, 2013, 09:05:04 pm
The Va Governor's race is now within 1%.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: sg0508 on November 05, 2013, 09:05:45 pm
Mac going away now.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Beezer on November 05, 2013, 09:05:49 pm
Dean Young 56%
Bradley Byrne 44%

14% in


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 05, 2013, 09:06:00 pm
Wow! If the NY Times Exit Poll holds up, de Blasio will not just crack 70% but smash it:

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/nyc-mayor/exit-polls.html

He probably will win Staten Island with those kinds of numbers.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 09:06:33 pm
Looking at some of the House precinct data, a lot of the outstanding areas are very Democratic.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 05, 2013, 09:06:46 pm
With these numbers, will there be any Republicans in the City Council?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Beezer on November 05, 2013, 09:06:52 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uB1D9wWxd2w


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 09:06:55 pm
McAuliffe is under performing Obama in Northern Virginia so far. Surprise?

Obama won Fairfax Co. by 20, McAuliffe is leading Fairfax by 20. Obama won Loudoun by 4.5, McAuliffe is leading by 5.

Loudoun and Prince William have him less than Obama, but overall pretty close to Obama.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 05, 2013, 09:07:37 pm
Obenshain up by 4 right now.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: AUDIT THE AUSTRALIAN PARLIAMENT! on November 05, 2013, 09:08:44 pm
2064/2541 precincts have posted results in VA, current vote split 47-46-7 (Atlas colours)

Also, congratulations to Governor Christie on his re-election in NJ.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 05, 2013, 09:10:16 pm
According to the NYT exit poll, Lhota´s doing best among the Jews :)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 09:10:40 pm
Damn, huge margin for de Blasio in NYC. ~50%. Very nice to see.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 05, 2013, 09:10:58 pm
Dean Young starts up 51-49 with 21% in.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: InvisibleTrump on November 05, 2013, 09:11:23 pm
Well, I cannot say that Lhota losing was a shock :P.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 09:11:28 pm
Nothing or hardly anything in from Charlottesville or Fairfax City.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: sg0508 on November 05, 2013, 09:13:05 pm
That AG race could be neck and neck.  Wow.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Beezer on November 05, 2013, 09:13:10 pm
Dean Young up by 400 votes with 31% in.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 05, 2013, 09:13:24 pm
On the Virginia elections website Cuccinelli´s lead is down to under 9 thousand votes.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 09:13:27 pm
de Blasio projected winner of the New York City mayoral race. No surprise here.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 09:15:04 pm
McAuliffe is about even now, Fairfax County is still 1/3 out.  Why aren't they calling this yet?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 05, 2013, 09:16:20 pm
de Blasio projected winner of the New York City mayoral race. No surprise here.

His margin (according to the exit poll) is actually pretty surprising though. Freakin' monstrous. Damn.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 09:16:32 pm
McAuliffe is about even now, Fairfax County is still 1/3 out.  Why aren't they calling this yet?

Because the numbers are still too close. They are very cautious and don't want to make a 2000-esque error.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: (CT) The Free North on November 05, 2013, 09:16:39 pm
McAuliffe is about even now, Fairfax County is still 1/3 out.  Why aren't they calling this yet?

Ratings boost?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 09:16:44 pm
85% in

Kooch +0.5
Obenshain +2.7

Looks like the difference between Kooch and Obenshain is shrinking.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on November 05, 2013, 09:17:18 pm
Cuccinelli and McAuliffe separated by 0.51% now at 84.57% in.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: sg0508 on November 05, 2013, 09:17:54 pm
A call may be imminent.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: MalaspinaGold on November 05, 2013, 09:19:17 pm
any interesting VA Assembly results?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 09:19:31 pm
Hearing scattered reports of de Blasio supporters rounding up Kulaks on Wall Street and executing them in the streets.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 09:19:36 pm
McAuliffe is about even now, Fairfax County is still 1/3 out.  Why aren't they calling this yet?

Ratings boost?

Maybe, but usually they like to brag about being the first to call a race... it seems safe to call this at this point.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: (CT) The Free North on November 05, 2013, 09:20:34 pm
Hearing scattered reports of de Blasio supporters rounding up Kulaks on Wall Street and executing them in the streets.

What?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: sg0508 on November 05, 2013, 09:20:42 pm
That A/G race is really something.  Wow.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 09:21:30 pm
Didn't realize the southeastern cities haven't really reported yet either.  They need to just call this.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 05, 2013, 09:21:45 pm
McAuliffe only 0.4% apart from Cuccinelli... wow.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: (CT) The Free North on November 05, 2013, 09:22:36 pm
That A/G race is really something.  Wow.

NYTimes site doesnt have it up, do you have a link


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Beezer on November 05, 2013, 09:23:08 pm
That A/G race is really something.  Wow.

NYTimes site doesnt have it up, do you have a link

http://electionresults.virginia.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=SWR&map=CTY


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on November 05, 2013, 09:23:22 pm
AL District 1 Runnoff

Bradley Byrne: 6,395
Dean Young: 6,691
Percent reporting: 47

http://www.fox10tv.com/web/fox10tv/news/local/baldwin-county/byrne-young-face-off-in-primary-runoff


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 09:23:28 pm
McAuliffe might actually outperform Obama in Fairfax.  


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 09:23:43 pm
Anyone have a precinct map of NYC?    


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Beezer on November 05, 2013, 09:24:04 pm
Coochy by 400 votes right now.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: AUDIT THE AUSTRALIAN PARLIAMENT! on November 05, 2013, 09:24:19 pm
I apologize if this has already been posted, but here's the map of the VA race so far:

http://servweb.us/electionresults/


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: JerryArkansas on November 05, 2013, 09:24:25 pm
Fox just called it for McAuliffe.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 05, 2013, 09:25:00 pm
McAuliffe might actually outperform Obama in Fairfax.  

Regardless, Cuccinelli is running 4 points behind Romney there.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 05, 2013, 09:25:04 pm
I'm not going to bed until I see McAuliffe over the Kook. I know he will win, but I just want to have the image of another tea party hack being defeated before I go sleep... BTW, I think it's clear now Herring beats Obenshain, too :)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on November 05, 2013, 09:25:11 pm
anyone know anything about the Detroit race?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 09:25:43 pm

Karl Rove won't like this.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 09:26:03 pm
Margin continues to grow in all of the NOVA counties.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 09:26:29 pm

Is Karl Rove on?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: JerryArkansas on November 05, 2013, 09:26:37 pm
I like that.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: backtored on November 05, 2013, 09:26:56 pm
Amendment 66, the big tax hike in Colorado, is going down in flames.

And that with a more than ten-to-one spending gap, too. Not only does that make Michael Bloomberg 0-for-3 in Colorado elections this year, but it is also a major loss for Governor Hickenlooper and suggests that Colorado's conservative rebellion is strong.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 09:27:04 pm
Congrats, even though its not officially called, McAuliffe will be Virginia's next governor.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: sg0508 on November 05, 2013, 09:27:09 pm
And that's that.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2013, 09:27:20 pm

http://project.wnyc.org/election2013/

No results in yet.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 09:27:33 pm
Amendment 66, the big tax hike in Colorado, is going down in flames.

And that with a more than ten-to-one spending gap, too. Not only does that make Michael Bloomberg 0-for-3 in Colorado elections this year, but it is also a major loss for Governor Hickenlooper and suggests that Colorado's conservative rebellion is strong.

Thank GOD.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on November 05, 2013, 09:27:42 pm

Terrible news!

Though on the bright side Cuccinelli lost.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: (CT) The Free North on November 05, 2013, 09:28:13 pm

Id like to see another breakdown


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 05, 2013, 09:28:22 pm
Enough. Good night everybody...


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Beezer on November 05, 2013, 09:29:07 pm
Bradley Byrne ahead by a single vote with 42% in.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: sg0508 on November 05, 2013, 09:29:56 pm
Amendment 66, the big tax hike in Colorado, is going down in flames.

And that with a more than ten-to-one spending gap, too. Not only does that make Michael Bloomberg 0-for-3 in Colorado elections this year, but it is also a major loss for Governor Hickenlooper and suggests that Colorado's conservative rebellion is strong.

Thank GOD.
The CO GOP is near dead.  I'll continue to believe that until they win another big statewide race...last time being '04 when Bush beat Kerry by 4.7% points.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 09:30:54 pm
Bradley Byrne ahead by a single vote with 42% in.

Hopefully Byrne will pull it out. Young will make just another nutcase in the massively damaged reputation of the US House of Representatives.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 09:31:40 pm
Amendment 66, the big tax hike in Colorado, is going down in flames.

And that with a more than ten-to-one spending gap, too. Not only does that make Michael Bloomberg 0-for-3 in Colorado elections this year, but it is also a major loss for Governor Hickenlooper and suggests that Colorado's conservative rebellion is strong.

Thank GOD.
The CO GOP is near dead.  I'll continue to believe that until they win another big statewide race...last time being '04 when Bush beat Kerry by 4.7% points.

Still, this is a sign that the moderate/conservatives are alive and well in the state and they are willing to reject the liberal policies that their state government offers them.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 05, 2013, 09:33:03 pm
I apologize if this has already been posted, but here's the map of the VA race so far:

http://servweb.us/electionresults/

hey that's really cool!

only I don't know why some of these maps are showing Cucc. winning Williamsburg by 1 vote. The SBOE has McAuliffe ahead 63-31-6.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2013, 09:33:17 pm
Amendment 66, the big tax hike in Colorado, is going down in flames.

And that with a more than ten-to-one spending gap, too. Not only does that make Michael Bloomberg 0-for-3 in Colorado elections this year, but it is also a major loss for Governor Hickenlooper and suggests that Colorado's conservative rebellion is strong.

YES!!!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on November 05, 2013, 09:33:37 pm
Obenshain still up 51-48.9 with 90% reporting


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 09:35:07 pm
Some votes beginning to come in NYC and NY (for the referenda).


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 09:35:19 pm
Obenshain still up 51-48.9 with 90% reporting

My prediction is that Herring barely barely makes it. By about 0.2%.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 05, 2013, 09:35:24 pm
Byrne up with 51%. Lets hope that holds.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: backtored on November 05, 2013, 09:36:47 pm
Amendment 66, the big tax hike in Colorado, is going down in flames.

And that with a more than ten-to-one spending gap, too. Not only does that make Michael Bloomberg 0-for-3 in Colorado elections this year, but it is also a major loss for Governor Hickenlooper and suggests that Colorado's conservative rebellion is strong.

Thank GOD.
The CO GOP is near dead.  I'll continue to believe that until they win another big statewide race...last time being '04 when Bush beat Kerry by 4.7% points.

Say what you want about the state GOP, but clearly conservatism in Colorado is quite alive. I'll happily take historic recalls and a major tax defeat for an increasingly unpopular liberal governor any election.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 09:36:55 pm
These networks are pathetic.  McAuliffe up 10,000 votes or so and almost all precincts left are in democratic areas and most STILL haven't called this.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Mr. Reactionary on November 05, 2013, 09:37:13 pm


hey that's really cool!

only I don't know why some of these maps are showing Cucc. winning Williamsburg by 1 vote. The SBOE has McAuliffe ahead 63-31-6.

I noticed that too. I don't know which to believe, since the ones showing Cooch winning have higher totals.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Flake on November 05, 2013, 09:37:25 pm
McAuliffe up by 0.40

46.71% McAuliffe
46.31% McAuliffe

Northam up by 9.02

54.41% Northam
45.39% Jackson

Obenshain up by 2.08

50.98% Obenshain
48.90% Herring

90.95% of the vote is in.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: sg0508 on November 05, 2013, 09:39:19 pm
Christie hovering right at 60%


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 09:39:26 pm
NBC CALLS IT FOR T-MAC


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Kushahontas on November 05, 2013, 09:39:27 pm
MSNBC calls for Terry


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 05, 2013, 09:39:35 pm

Let's go have the anchors waterboard the analysts and see if they change their minds.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 09:39:39 pm
Terry McAuliffe is officially the projected winner.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on November 05, 2013, 09:40:29 pm

Finally!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 05, 2013, 09:40:51 pm
It's funny to watch all the flip-flopping over the Virginia Governor's race. When Cuccinelli was ahead, Democrats were cautiously tweeting about the election not being a predictor of 2014 or a mandate on Obama's administration, while Republicans were saying it was a good sign for 2014 and evidence we were right on Obamacare and the shutdown. Now it seems both sides are saying the opposite of what they were saying an hour ago.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 05, 2013, 09:41:25 pm
McAuliffe is ahead; it's over.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 05, 2013, 09:41:29 pm
Terry McAuliffe is officially the projected winner.

where's barfbag when we need him?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: backtored on November 05, 2013, 09:42:44 pm
Amendment 66 in Colorado is down 65-35. Last I checked it was only narrowly passing in Denver County. That is pretty stunning stuff. This state is a real wildcard.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: InvisibleTrump on November 05, 2013, 09:42:49 pm
It aint over until the AP sings.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 09:42:57 pm
Governor Terry McAuliffe!!!
(Image Link)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 09:43:36 pm

Big victory for rum and sodomy tonight. We'll see about the lash.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 09:43:55 pm
In other news, Bradley Byrne is narrowly leading Dean Young 51-49 with a little over half of the vote counted (AL-1 Primary). Lets hope it stays that way.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 05, 2013, 09:44:12 pm
Obenshain´s lead on Virginia elections site is down to about 30 thousand votes. It is getting close.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 05, 2013, 09:44:30 pm

It's over.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 09:44:38 pm
Terry McAuliffe is officially the projected winner.

where's barfbag when we need him?

he's at home barfing into a bag.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on November 05, 2013, 09:44:53 pm
Here's to 4 years of Governor McAwful!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 09:44:59 pm

Big victory for rum and sodomy tonight. We'll see about the lash.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9HUCAarSMg (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9HUCAarSMg)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2013, 09:45:01 pm
Westchester County Executive

ASTORINO(R)  49%
BRAMSON(D)   51%

6% reporting


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Indy Texas on November 05, 2013, 09:45:33 pm
Not that anyone cares about Houston municipal politics, but Annise Parker is looking to win a third (final) term without a runoff.

And Helena Brown, the fundamentalist Catholic Tea Party HP city councilwoman, will most likely be facing a run-off against Brenda Stardig, the "Mainstream Republican" who she defeated in 2011.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 05, 2013, 09:45:42 pm
Walsh leads Connolly 51-48 right now with 90% reporting.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia on November 05, 2013, 09:46:13 pm
According to the Virginia State Board of Elections (http://electionresults.virginia.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=SWR&map=CTY), with 2,311 out of 2,541 precincts reporting:

Governor:

Terry McAuliffe (D): 46.71%
Ken Cuccinelli (R): 46.31%
Robert Sarvis (Lib): 6.66%

Lt. Governor:

Ralph Northam (D): 54.41%
E. W. Jackson (R): 45.39%

Attorney General:

Mark Obenshain (R): 50.98%
Mark Herring (D): 48.90%


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2013, 09:47:53 pm
Looks like it will be McAuliffe by about 1%-2%.

AG not clear who will win.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Indy Texas on November 05, 2013, 09:48:24 pm
Cuccinelli watch party attendees... #WhiteTears

(Image Link)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 05, 2013, 09:48:49 pm


hey that's really cool!

only I don't know why some of these maps are showing Cucc. winning Williamsburg by 1 vote. The SBOE has McAuliffe ahead 63-31-6.

I noticed that too. I don't know which to believe, since the ones showing Cooch winning have higher totals.

Ok, it appears whoever or whatever is inputting the website applications mixed up the Gubernatorial vote by applying the Westmoreland Co. votes to Williamsburg.  SBOE is correct.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on November 05, 2013, 09:49:29 pm
Looks like it will be McAuliffe by about 1%-2%.

AG not clear who will win.

The AG's race is what's keeping me up right now.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 05, 2013, 09:49:39 pm
Obenshain down to 50.8%.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: RedSLC on November 05, 2013, 09:50:03 pm
I wonder if the AG race will have to be decided tomorrow.

Also, congratulations, Governor McAuliffe!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 09:50:25 pm
There are a lot of close (like 50-50) races in the Virginia House of Delegates right now. Dems could gain anywhere from like 0 to 10 seats at this point.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 09:50:39 pm
Minimum wage raise passes in NJ!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Holmes on November 05, 2013, 09:51:09 pm
I wonder what the results in Virginia would look like if the 2 million 2012 voters who decided not to show up at the polls actually did.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 09:51:16 pm
93% in and its 51-49 Obershain. Holly crap.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 09:51:24 pm
Also, in New Jersey, voters have over-ridden Christie's veto of the minimum wage hike through Proposition 2.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 09:51:29 pm
There are a lot of close (like 50-50) races in the Virginia House of Delegates right now. Dems could gain anywhere from like 0 to 10 seats at this point.

http://www.vpap.org/elections/live_results/nov_2013?race=house (http://www.vpap.org/elections/live_results/nov_2013?race=house)

Look at that link, you can click on the seat and see the precinct maps. Thank you Miles!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Indy Texas on November 05, 2013, 09:51:40 pm
Kind of ironic that Fox News called the race for McAuliffe before the "lamestream" networks. Where is Karl Rove and why isn't he demanding Megyn Kelly go find the people processing the returns to double-check?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: User157088589849 on November 05, 2013, 09:51:49 pm
Well least the folks in new jersey have a pay rise and it will go up based on living standards from now on. $8.25 is a joke still. can't raise kids with that kind of salary.



Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2013, 09:54:52 pm
Westchester County executive

With 9% in it is

ASTORINO(R)  52
BRAMSON(D)   48

Since a lot of the district reporting are Dem strongholds (some of them R did not even put up a candidate for Co Legislator), it seems clear that Astorino will win and most likely a good margin.



Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on November 05, 2013, 09:56:19 pm
VA AG 95% reporting

Obenshain 50.6%
Herring 49.3%


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 09:56:36 pm
95% in

T-Mac +1.2
Obenshain +1.3

The 2.5% difference is holding. Gonna be a close one...


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on November 05, 2013, 09:57:23 pm
The AG race is razor thin...


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on November 05, 2013, 09:58:47 pm

Christie vetoed that and so supporters put it on the ballot and it wins by 20 points...It is interesting that many people who are voting for Christie disagree with him on this, abortion, SSM and likely other issues. Christie says voters don't vote on issues and maybe he is right.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Talleyrand on November 05, 2013, 09:59:17 pm
Looks like Obenshain will win. There simply aren't enough outstanding votes to pull Herring over the line, it seems.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 09:59:30 pm
Proposal 1 and 5 in NY state are winning. Ugh.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 10:00:50 pm
VA AG 95% reporting

Obenshain 50.6%
Herring 49.3%

Holy sh*t. C'mon Obenshain!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia on November 05, 2013, 10:00:57 pm
Looks like Obenshain will win. There simply aren't enough outstanding votes to pull Herring over the line, it seems.

I agree with this.  He looks to be the automatic GOP 2017 gubernatorial front-runner -if he maintains his lead.  


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2013, 10:01:06 pm
Looks like R are going to come through in VA AG.  


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 10:01:20 pm
Portland Maine legalizes weed!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 10:01:53 pm
Not convinced the libertarian hurt Cuccinelli as much as the GOP is spinning, he did best among 18-29 year olds who otherwise were going strongly for McAuliffe...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/local/2013-elections/exit-polls/





Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on November 05, 2013, 10:02:23 pm

My brother lives in Potland, might have to visit him. :P

Edit: that was a typo, but incredibly appropriate.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2013, 10:02:27 pm
I think if Sarvis did not run the VA Gov race results would be similar to the AG result, close R victory.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 10:03:46 pm
Looks like R are going to come through in VA AG.  

We shouldn't say that just yet.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 10:04:30 pm
Chuck Todd just said that that Chris Christie turned down coming to Virginia to help campaign for Cuccinelli.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 05, 2013, 10:04:54 pm
Just over 20 thousand vote lead for Obenshain (1.04%). He will, probably, win, but it is quite likely to get in a recount area. BTW, what are the recount rules in Virginia?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Indy Texas on November 05, 2013, 10:04:59 pm
Looks like Obenshain will win. There simply aren't enough outstanding votes to pull Herring over the line, it seems.

I agree with this.  He looks to be the automatic GOP 2017 gubernatorial front-runner -if he maintains his lead.  

He deserves it, managing to win despite sharing a ticket with Rick Santorum and Uncle Ruckus.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on November 05, 2013, 10:05:11 pm
97% in

Obenshain up 1%


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on November 05, 2013, 10:05:13 pm
Don't start blaming Sarvis.  The reason why Republicans are voting for Sarvis are because of how extreme Cuccinelli is.  There is only one person to blame for the Republican's defeat and that is Cuccinelli (well, him and everyone who voted for him.)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on November 05, 2013, 10:05:40 pm
According to Chuck Todd Christe refused a request to campaign for Cuccinelli


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2013, 10:06:07 pm
Not convinced the libertarian hurt Cuccinelli as much as the GOP is spinning, he did best among 18-29 year olds who otherwise were going strongly for McAuliffe...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/local/2013-elections/exit-polls/


I guess my argument for Sarvis hurting R is the following:  Places where Sarvis ran very strong (9%+) are all in places in Southern Virgina where Cuccinelli did very well and McAuliffe's margin of defeat was about the same as Obama.  Given what we know about the race we would expect  Cuccinelli's margin of victory to be greater than Romney especially when C Cuccinelli did better than Romney relative to Obama.  Ergo most likely Sarvis hurt R much more them D.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 10:06:30 pm
Wow, Chuck Todd just said Chris Christie refused to come campaign for Kooch.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 10:06:37 pm
Don't start blaming Sarvis.  The reason why Republicans are voting for Sarvis are because of how extreme Cuccinelli is.  There is only one person to blame for the Republican's defeat and that is Cuccinelli (well, him and everyone who voted for him.)

This!!!!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: AUDIT THE AUSTRALIAN PARLIAMENT! on November 05, 2013, 10:06:42 pm
So McAuliffe's won this... oh well, you win some and you lose some. In an alternate universe where VA Governors can hold consecutive terms, I don't think McDonnell would have done as well as Cuccinelli did.

Still, McAuliffe didn't do as well as I thought he would, my prediction was:

McAuliffe: 49%
Cuccinelli: 46%
Sarvis: 4%


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2013, 10:07:28 pm
Don't start blaming Sarvis.  The reason why Republicans are voting for Sarvis are because of how extreme Cuccinelli is.  There is only one person to blame for the Republican's defeat and that is Cuccinelli (well, him and everyone who voted for him.)

Well, if polls that showed R behind by 4 or 6 before the election had R and D close to being tied if  Sarvis were not running, then one can assume that R would win given the results tonight.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: traininthedistance on November 05, 2013, 10:07:45 pm
Proposal 1 and 5 in NY state are winning. Ugh.

Ugh indeed.  Well, I'm actually somewhat conflicted on 1, but did ultimately vote no.

But it's early, very few results from NYC, there's hope yet.

At least 3 is winning; a No vote on that would be truly disastrous.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 10:07:51 pm
So McAuliffe's won this... oh well, you win some and you lose some. In an alternate universe where VA Governors can hold consecutive terms, I don't think McDonnell would have done as well as Cuccinelli did.

Still, McAuliffe didn't do as well as I thought he would, my prediction was:

McAuliffe: 49%
Cuccinelli: 46%
Sarvis: 4%


A 3 point margin can still happen, almost all the outstanding votes are from democratic precincts.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 10:09:13 pm
Proposal 1 and 5 in NY state are winning. Ugh.

Ugh indeed.  Well, I'm actually somewhat conflicted on 1, but did ultimately vote no.

But it's early, very few results from NYC, there's hope yet.

At least 3 is winning; a No vote on that would be truly disastrous.

Any link to what the questions where?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2013, 10:09:37 pm
Proposal 1 and 5 in NY state are winning. Ugh.

Ugh indeed.  Well, I'm actually somewhat conflicted on 1, but did ultimately vote no.

But it's early, very few results from NYC, there's hope yet.

At least 3 is winning; a No vote on that would be truly disastrous.

I voted for proposal 1.  I saw no reason to vote against it.  I think gambling should be legal everywhere.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 10:10:56 pm
Proposal 1 and 5 in NY state are winning. Ugh.

Ugh indeed.  Well, I'm actually somewhat conflicted on 1, but did ultimately vote no.

But it's early, very few results from NYC, there's hope yet.

At least 3 is winning; a No vote on that would be truly disastrous.

Any link to what the questions where?

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/ballot-measures/results.html


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 10:11:44 pm
Results show Christie cracking 75% in Ocean County, NJ. Amazing.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2013, 10:13:32 pm
Christie is leading in every county but Essex and Hudson.  Mercer and Middlesex are close and could flip.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 05, 2013, 10:15:34 pm
Don't start blaming Sarvis.  The reason why Republicans are voting for Sarvis are because of how extreme Cuccinelli is.  There is only one person to blame for the Republican's defeat and that is Cuccinelli (well, him and everyone who voted for him.)

Well, if polls that showed R behind by 4 or 6 before the election had R and D close to being tied if  Sarvis were not running, then one can assume that R would win given the results tonight.

One can assume that many Sarvis voters would have not bothered to vote.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 05, 2013, 10:16:55 pm
Obenshain´s lead is down to about 18 thousand votes (just under 0.9%)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on November 05, 2013, 10:18:08 pm
Obenshain´s lead is down to about 18 thousand votes (just under 0.9%)

I really do not know who's gonna win this one.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 10:18:36 pm
I'm guessing the AG race will come down to a recount. Guess who'll be in charge of that? ::)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 10:18:54 pm
IIRC Obama gained a percentage point or so after election night last year. Am I remembering right? If so that bodes well for Herring.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on November 05, 2013, 10:19:01 pm
Don't start blaming Sarvis.  The reason why Republicans are voting for Sarvis are because of how extreme Cuccinelli is.  There is only one person to blame for the Republican's defeat and that is Cuccinelli (well, him and everyone who voted for him.)

Well, if polls that showed R behind by 4 or 6 before the election had R and D close to being tied if  Sarvis were not running, then one can assume that R would win given the results tonight.
Technically true, but if that is the lesson Republicans take away from this, they should be prepared to continue to lose voters to Democrats and third party candidates. 

Third parties will always be on the ballot, keeping members are their party from voting for third parties should be among the simplest of tasks for a campaign.  The fact that Cuccinelli let so many voters go to a random Libertarian shows that he as a candidate is fundamentally flawed.

Republicans are free to deny their candidate had any flaws and that it's all Sarvis' fault.  However, they should be prepared to keep losing elections.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 05, 2013, 10:19:23 pm
Christie is wavering right around 60%, and Byrne has started to pull away. He leads Young by 5% now.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on November 05, 2013, 10:20:36 pm
in other news Christie's hit the 60% mark.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on November 05, 2013, 10:20:47 pm
The AG race is now at less than 1%, but it looks like Obenshain will sneak away with a victory.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: sg0508 on November 05, 2013, 10:20:52 pm
Neck and neck indeed for the AG office.  My goodness


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2013, 10:22:28 pm
Well, if polls that showed R behind by 4 or 6 before the election had R and D close to being tied if  Sarvis were not running, then one can assume that R would win given the results tonight.
Technically true, but if that is the lesson Republicans take away from this, they should be prepared to continue to lose voters to Democrats and third party candidates.  

Third parties will always be on the ballot, keeping members are their party from voting for third parties should be among the simplest of tasks for a campaign.  The fact that Cuccinelli let so many voters go to a random Libertarian shows that he as a candidate is fundamentally flawed.

Republicans are free to deny their candidate had any flaws and that it's all Sarvis' fault.  However, they should be prepared to keep losing elections.

You make a very good point.  In fact this result shows the resiliency of the GOP brand.  To have a very flawed candidate after the whole shutdown fiasco and a third party candidate that took a bunch of votes away and still just lose by 1.5% or so is not that bad of a result.  But yes, if the GOP wants to win in Virgina they better come up with good candidates.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: RedSLC on November 05, 2013, 10:22:33 pm
I'm guessing the AG race will come down to a recount. Guess who'll be in charge of that? ::)

Does anyone know the recount laws for Virginia?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 05, 2013, 10:23:26 pm
In other news, Mike Duggan is now projected to win the mayoral race in Detroit.  Going from a write-in candidate in the primary to mayor-elect is pretty amazing.  This makes him the first Caucasian to win that race in over 40 years.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2013, 10:24:00 pm
Westchester County Executive

ASTORINO(R)    54%
BRAMSON(D)     46%

with 24% of the vote counted.  I suspect it will be like this the rest of the night.  Astorino wins reelection.  


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Indy Texas on November 05, 2013, 10:24:10 pm
I'm guessing the AG race will come down to a recount. Guess who'll be in charge of that? ::)

Does anyone know the recount laws for Virginia?

Don't most states generally only proceed to a recount if the margin is less than 0.5%? Usually if it's greater than that a candidate can request a recount but the campaign must pay for it, not the state.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 05, 2013, 10:25:22 pm
Who has the NYC Mayoral results by borough?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on November 05, 2013, 10:26:14 pm
In other news, Mike Duggan is now projected to win the mayoral race in Detroit.  Going from a write-in candidate in the primary to mayor-elect is pretty amazing.  This makes him the first Caucasian to win that race in over 40 years.

Congrats Mayor Duggan!

Also I should congratulate Christie and De Blasio while I'm at it!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 10:26:36 pm
NYT has it by precinct: http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/nyc-mayor/map.html


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 10:26:48 pm
In the NJ Governor's Race, theirs actually many areas left to count that are mostly from suburban and rural (high Christie numbers) so I do indeed think he will get above 60% at the end of the night.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Holmes on November 05, 2013, 10:29:46 pm
Ugh, Republican attorneys general. Come on Herring...


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 05, 2013, 10:30:20 pm
Virginia result ought to be mildly troubling for both parties, I think. The reasons are obvious enough for the Republicans (yet another winnable race has been pissed away due to the nomination of a fruitcake. This has become a structural problem rather than an occasional embarrassment), but the narrow margin given that and the general bad publicity for the Republicans of late should concern Democrats with regards to next year (even if a certain degree of that can be put down to McAwful being McAwful).


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 10:31:47 pm
With 98% in, Obenshain is leading 50.6-49.4. I can say now that I think Obenshain will narrowly squeak it out. Certainly something I was not expecting.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Indy Texas on November 05, 2013, 10:33:41 pm
Texans are approving the creation of a state water fund by an overwhelming margin - 74% to 26% with 60% of precincts reporting - despite modest Tea Party opposition.

Harris County's bond proposal to renovate the Astrodome is failing so far with 53% voting against it.



Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2013, 10:33:56 pm
Westchester County Executive

ASTORINO(R)    54%
BRAMSON(D)     46%

with 24% of the vote counted.  I suspect it will be like this the rest of the night.  Astorino wins reelection.  


Nassau County Executive
Mangano (R) 61%
Suozzi (D) 39%
with 23% in

Rockland County Executive
Day (R) 49.30%
Fried (D) 48.83%
with 28% in


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 05, 2013, 10:34:27 pm
I'm guessing the AG race will come down to a recount. Guess who'll be in charge of that? ::)

Does anyone know the recount laws for Virginia?

Don't most states generally only proceed to a recount if the margin is less than 0.5%? Usually if it's greater than that a candidate can request a recount but the campaign must pay for it, not the state.

That's basically right.  In Va there's no automatic recount.  A candidate can request a recount if the margin is 1% or less, once the election is certified (why they have to wait until then to do it, idk).  If it's less than 0.5% the campaign pays for it.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 05, 2013, 10:34:35 pm
With just 38 precincts left, Obenshain´s lead is back over 1% (22 thousand or so). He wins.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 05, 2013, 10:34:49 pm
Virginia result ought to be mildly troubling for both parties, I think. The reasons are obvious enough for the Republicans (yet another winnable race has been pissed away due to the nomination of a fruitcake. This has become a structural problem rather than an occasional embarrassment), but the narrow margin given that and the general bad publicity for the Republicans of late should concern Democrats with regards to next year (even if a certain degree of that can be put down to McAwful being McAwful).

That fact that McAuliffe almost blew it against Cuccinelli, even with the government shutdown fresh in people's minds cannot be a good sign for Democrats.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 10:35:01 pm
Quote
Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 2m
And in case those precincts don't put Herring (D) over the top, Newport News/Richmond/Prince William/Loudoun very well could.

Dave Wasserman still thinks Herring could pull it out.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on November 05, 2013, 10:35:23 pm
So what's going on with the Brooklyn DA?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 05, 2013, 10:35:59 pm
DeBlasio cracks 70% already with 9% of precincts reporting, leading 72-25. No surprise there.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on November 05, 2013, 10:36:18 pm
Virginia result ought to be mildly troubling for both parties, I think. The reasons are obvious enough for the Republicans (yet another winnable race has been pissed away due to the nomination of a fruitcake. This has become a structural problem rather than an occasional embarrassment), but the narrow margin given that and the general bad publicity for the Republicans of late should concern Democrats with regards to next year (even if a certain degree of that can be put down to McAwful being McAwful).

That fact that McAuliffe almost blew it against Cuccinelli, even with the government shutdown fresh in people's minds cannot be a good sign for Democrats.
Well, McAuliffe is a really bad candidate as well. 


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 05, 2013, 10:38:46 pm
Well, McAuliffe is a really bad candidate as well. 

Yes. Thus only slightly ominous, rather than 'oh sh[inks]t'.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2013, 10:39:01 pm

Thompson (D) is leading incumbent Hynes about 70-30 with 9% in.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 10:40:10 pm
This isn't a good sign for Herring

Quote
Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 25s
There is one problem for @SenMarkHerring I had not previously spotted: Liberty Univ. in Lynchburg has not yet reported.



Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2013, 10:41:25 pm
Westchester County Executive

ASTORINO(R)    54%
BRAMSON(D)     46%

with 24% of the vote counted.  I suspect it will be like this the rest of the night.  Astorino wins reelection.  


Nassau County Executive
Mangano (R) 61%
Suozzi (D) 39%
with 23% in

Rockland County Executive
Day (R) 49.30%
Fried (D) 48.83%
with 28% in

Both Astorino and Mangano will most likely run for statewide office in the future given their re-elections.  Especially Astorino to win in Westcheter back in 2009 was a shock.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 10:42:08 pm
Looks like Lhota is winning Staten Island lol.

Also de Blasio is apparently giving his entire speech in both English and Spanish rofl


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 10:42:31 pm
99% in now and 50.4-49.6. Wow.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 05, 2013, 10:43:06 pm
Looks like Lhota is winning Staten Island lol.

Maybe they can start up that secession movement again...


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 10:43:25 pm
Quote
@MysteryPollster: About that slim VA AG margin: On day after ’12 election, Obama led by 3.0%. Grew to +3.9% on certified count


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 05, 2013, 10:43:37 pm
Looks like Lhota is winning Staten Island lol.

Also de Blasio is apparently giving his entire speech in both English and Spanish rofl

Republicans have long been, locally, the Staten Island Independence Party. Lhota should have given his concession in the Island dialect :)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 10:43:58 pm
I like how Republicans are already spinning Cuccinelli's loss.  The fact is this was an off-year election where democratic turnout is always lower.  If you look at McAuliffe and the down ballot candidate's margins in most of the key districts they are roughly the same as Obama's, the only different is turnout was slightly higher in republican areas in relative terms.

The results here are actually terrible news for Republicans... they're finding it harder and harder to win statewide office in Virginia even in off year elections.  

Also, you have to assume the democrats are going to nominate someone less awful for President in 2016, whereas the republicans will probably nominate someone equally as awful as Cuccinelli.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Indy Texas on November 05, 2013, 10:44:42 pm
Virginia result ought to be mildly troubling for both parties, I think. The reasons are obvious enough for the Republicans (yet another winnable race has been pissed away due to the nomination of a fruitcake. This has become a structural problem rather than an occasional embarrassment), but the narrow margin given that and the general bad publicity for the Republicans of late should concern Democrats with regards to next year (even if a certain degree of that can be put down to McAwful being McAwful).

That fact that McAuliffe almost blew it against Cuccinelli, even with the government shutdown fresh in people's minds cannot be a good sign for Democrats.

If you have two bad candidates, one of them still has to get more votes than the other.

The difference is that McAuliffe's negatives were more or less candidate-specific. He can't undo his sketchy past fundraising for the Clintons or his crony-capitalist stint building nonexistent electric cars. Cuccinelli's problems stem from what he did and does, not who he is. If he hadn't wasted taxpayer money throwing spears at windmills as AG and had run as a serious, mainstream candidate, he would have done better. He made a choice to offer something that voters simply did not want.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 10:44:50 pm
Dems pick up HD-02 in Virginia, leading 1.5% with 100% reporting.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 05, 2013, 10:44:52 pm
On the current trends, the Republicans will be down to 2 seats in the City Council (both from the Island, of course).


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on November 05, 2013, 10:45:06 pm
Looks like Republicans finally offed Nelson Albano in NJ-01's Assembly race. No other turnovers yet, but Inverso-Greenstein is super close, as is everything in Dem-held NJ-38.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 05, 2013, 10:47:20 pm
With just 26 precincts left, Obenshain is ahead by just over 15 thousand votes (0.75%). So, recount is not out of the question, at least.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 10:47:45 pm
Prop 1 and 5 still each winning by about 10%. Ugh.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 05, 2013, 10:47:59 pm
On the current trends, the Republicans will be down to 2 seats in the City Council (both from the Island, of course).

They do seem to have a chance of making it three; district 48 is very close and they were leading earlier.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 10:48:32 pm
how come nobody is talking about the hideous creature running for Lt. Governor and his impact on the race?  Looks like less people voted for Lt. Governor than for Attorney General.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 10:48:58 pm
Bradley Byrne is the projected winner of the runoff for Alabama's 1st Congressional District. 53% of the vote vs. 47% with 91% reporting.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 10:49:15 pm
Who the f[inks] are these people wasting a Tuesday night cheering for Terry McAuliffe?!?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 05, 2013, 10:49:25 pm
On the current trends, the Republicans will be down to 2 seats in the City Council (both from the Island, of course).

They do seem to have a chance of making it three; district 48 is very close and they were leading earlier.

Yeah, those Russians. Still, even that would be a net loss of 25% of their current strength (on top of a recent defection, as it is).


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Indy Texas on November 05, 2013, 10:50:22 pm
Bradley Byrne is the projected winner of the runoff for Alabama's 1st Congressional District. 53% of the vote vs. 47% with 91% reporting.

Thank God.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 10:51:45 pm
looks like the exit polls show that the two biggest regional trends over 2009 were the far out DC suburbs moving further to the left and the southwestern part of the state moving further to the right.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on November 05, 2013, 10:51:59 pm
Barbara Buono's super-Democratic Middlesex County open seat is still really close, too, 52-48, with 39% rptg


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 10:52:42 pm
Quote
Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 6s
Herring (D) now within 15,681 votes of Obenshain (R) and tightening. I may be in minority but still think there's enough out to make it up.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on November 05, 2013, 10:53:06 pm
Who the f[inks] are these people wasting a Tuesday night cheering for Terry McAuliffe?!?

business contacts, obvi


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 10:53:10 pm
Still 15,000+ absentee ballots in Fairfax to be counted...


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 10:54:27 pm
T-Mac comparing himself to T-Jeff... Nice!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 10:54:37 pm
Obenshain's lead less than 13k


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 10:56:05 pm
Currently five Republican delegates in Virginia leading with less than 51% of the vote. F[inks]ing gerrymanders.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 10:56:35 pm
Quote
Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 21s
Liberty Univ. (Lynchburg) just reported in: 1,141 Obenshain (R) 29 Herring (D) - 97.5% for Obenshain. No, that is not a typo.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 05, 2013, 10:56:40 pm
Cuccinelli admits he was a crappy candidate: "This race came down to the wire because of ObamaCare".  A good candidate would've won without the factor of Obamacare.  And I don't think Obamacare had much of an effect on a state election.  Maybe a percentage point at most.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: backtored on November 05, 2013, 10:56:50 pm
Jefferson County, Colorado's marquee swing county, has elected a conservative majority to the school board. Douglas County kept all four conservatives on their school board, a green light to the voucher program there. And Amendment 66 is losing 2:1. A great night for conservatives in Colorado.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Indy Texas on November 05, 2013, 10:57:04 pm
Obenshain is winning by about 13,000 votes at this point. Herring would be justified in requesting a recount.

Though honestly, if there were a recount and Herring came out the winner, Republicans would be screaming bloody murder about Democrats stuffing ballot boxes despite the fact that the elections board is Republican-controlled. Virginia Republicans would spend the next 4 years bitching and moaning about how Mark Herring is not the "legitimate" AG and be demanding investigation after investigation into anything and everything he does.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Indy Texas on November 05, 2013, 10:57:55 pm
Jefferson County, Colorado's marquee swing county, has elected a conservative majority to the school board. Douglas County kept all four conservatives on their school board, a green light to the voucher program there. And Amendment 66 is losing 2:1. A great night for conservatives in Colorado.

So are any counties seceding?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 05, 2013, 10:58:10 pm
20 precincts to go - and Obenshain lead is down to 12.5 thousand (0.59%). He will be ahead at the end of the night - but barely. Recount is quite likely.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 10:58:54 pm
Proposition 5's winning by just 8% now. Maybe there's hope.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Badger on November 05, 2013, 10:59:16 pm
Looks like Lhota is winning Staten Island lol.

Link?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 11:00:09 pm
http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/nyc-mayor/map.html

De Blasio's closed the gap a bit since I posted that though.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: homelycooking on November 05, 2013, 11:01:08 pm
South Windsor became the first municipality in Connecticut to elect a Muslim mayor.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 11:01:47 pm
South Windsor became the first municipality in Connecticut to elect a Muslim mayor.

Awesome! :D


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: backtored on November 05, 2013, 11:01:57 pm
Jefferson County, Colorado's marquee swing county, has elected a conservative majority to the school board. Douglas County kept all four conservatives on their school board, a green light to the voucher program there. And Amendment 66 is losing 2:1. A great night for conservatives in Colorado.

So are any counties seceding?

A few, but not enough to get it off the ground. The movement in terms of secession is toast.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 11:02:29 pm
it says 20 precincts left but when you look at the counties they are almost all reported.  I don't see any counties with a lot of precincts left.  I think that might be an error.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2013, 11:03:00 pm

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2013/by_county/NY_Page_1105.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

54%-44% Lhota with about 24% in.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 05, 2013, 11:03:55 pm
14 precincts left. The Obenshain lead is now just under 12 thousand votes (0.56%).


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Indy Texas on November 05, 2013, 11:06:12 pm
South Windsor became the first municipality in Connecticut to elect a Muslim mayor.

And he's an actual Muslim, not one of those bean pie-eating racist blacks.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 05, 2013, 11:06:53 pm
Cuccinelli admits he was a crappy candidate: "This race came down to the wire because of ObamaCare".  A good candidate would've won without the factor of Obamacare.  And I don't think Obamacare had much of an effect on a state election.  Maybe a percentage point at most.

It was a major issue in the campaign and in the news.  I think it mattered a great deal to the election, though not as much as it did 4 years ago.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 05, 2013, 11:07:10 pm
it says 20 precincts left but when you look at the counties they are almost all reported.  I don't see any counties with a lot of precincts left.  I think that might be an error.

Actually, the detailed data shows quite a few precincts left (more than the 14 now on the aggregate score). But most of those are in Obenshain counties (including 5 in Craig).


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 05, 2013, 11:09:41 pm
District 48 is still tight, but the margin is up a tad: D 47.7, R 43.8. 21% in.

District 32 is also close: D 51.9, R 48.1 (40% in).

But that's it for contests. A couple where the leading candidate is under 60% though:

District 19 is D 56.8, R 43.2, and district 30 is D 56.1, R 43.9.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 11:10:56 pm
Obenshain's lead down to one thousand votes!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 05, 2013, 11:12:19 pm
I do not know what happened, but Washington Post website is showing Obenshain lead down to just 1357 votes - basically down to nothing. This is incredible!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 05, 2013, 11:13:15 pm
NY don't trust very olds to be judges (prop 6) :(


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 05, 2013, 11:14:07 pm
And on the Virginia election website the lead is down to 7,007 votes (0.33%). With 12 precincts left.

Most of what is left, though, is Obenshain country.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: sg0508 on November 05, 2013, 11:14:24 pm
The VA AG race could actually end up a tie lol.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 05, 2013, 11:14:57 pm
I do not know what happened, but Washington Post website is showing Obenshain lead down to just 1357 votes - basically down to nothing. This is incredible!

SBOE has it at 12K now.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 11:15:12 pm
Obenshain: 1,089,668 (50.0%)
Herring: 1,088,311 (50.0%)

:o


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 05, 2013, 11:15:33 pm
I do not know what happened, but Washington Post website is showing Obenshain lead down to just 1357 votes - basically down to nothing. This is incredible!

SBOE has it at 12K now.

7,000! they have just updated.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 05, 2013, 11:15:39 pm
Lhota's lead on the Island is crashing. Down to 5% now, de Blasio may have a shot.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on November 05, 2013, 11:16:10 pm
Dems held all 24 of their seats in the New Jersey State Senate, GOP held their 16. No change.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: backtored on November 05, 2013, 11:20:10 pm
How is the legislature in Virginia now?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 05, 2013, 11:22:40 pm
Dems gain net of one seat in Virginia House, it seems.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 05, 2013, 11:23:46 pm
According to WP, Obenshain is ahead by 1,191 votes.

Update: now it is 1,403


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 05, 2013, 11:26:13 pm
According to WP, Obenshain is ahead by 1,191 votes.

How are they higher in the vote total than SBOE? 


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on November 05, 2013, 11:26:41 pm
According to WP, Obenshain is ahead by 1,191 votes.

How are they higher in the vote total than SBOE? 

The SBOE is always behind.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 11:27:03 pm
On the bright side for republicans, they can take decent shots and possibly defeat incumbent Terry McAuliffe in 2017 if they're smart enough to nominate the right candidate by then.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 11:27:21 pm
How is the legislature in Virginia now?

A great gerrymander... really its pretty amazing.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 11:27:29 pm
um, according to the Washington post site, most of the outstanding vote is in democratic counties.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 11:28:01 pm
On the bright side for republicans, they can take decent shots and possibly defeat incumbent Terry McAuliffe in 2017 if they're smart enough to nominate the right candidate by then.

Don't forget that you can only run for one term in Virginia.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 11:29:53 pm
On the bright side for republicans, they can take decent shots and possibly defeat incumbent Terry McAuliffe in 2017 if they're smart enough to nominate the right candidate by then.

Don't forget that you can only run for one term in Virginia.

Oh, yeah.... oops. :(


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2013, 11:30:09 pm
On the bright side for republicans, they can take decent shots and possibly defeat incumbent Terry McAuliffe in 2017 if they're smart enough to nominate the right candidate by then.

I thought McAuliffe could not run for reelection anyway.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 11:30:19 pm
Virginia is ridiculously gerrymandered.  Most of the democrats won with over 70% of the vote or were unopposed.  Most of the republicans won with 51-55% of the vote, even in areas that are democratic overall like NOVA.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 11:30:33 pm
I count +3 in the House of Delegates, assuming current results hold:

HD-02 (51-49, 95% reporting)
HD-31 (51-49, 100% reporting)
HD-86 (51-49, 100% reporting)
HD-93 (52-48, 92% reporting)

Minus an uncontested Republican pickup.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Indy Texas on November 05, 2013, 11:31:06 pm
On the bright side for republicans, they can take decent shots and possibly defeat incumbent Terry McAuliffe in 2017 if they're smart enough to nominate the right candidate by then.

Don't forget that you can only run for one term in Virginia.

Oh, yeah.... oops. :(

And even if they didn't have term limits there, the Democrats would quietly find a better replacement like they did with John Hickenlooper in CO in 2010.

Republicans could learn from the Democrats and be willing to throw bad candidates overboard when the situation calls for it.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2013, 11:32:25 pm
AP projects that the NY Casino Gambling referendum will pass.  It's up 56%-44%.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 05, 2013, 11:32:33 pm
According to WP, Obenshain is ahead by 1,191 votes.

How are they higher in the vote total than SBOE? 

The SBOE is always behind.

then who do the news sources get their numbers from?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2013, 11:34:22 pm
According to WP, Obenshain is ahead by 1,191 votes.

How are they higher in the vote total than SBOE? 

The SBOE is always behind.

then who do the news sources get their numbers from?

The Associated Press gets their information from the various boards of elections.  There is a discrepancy between the state BoE site and the AP results.  There has been all night.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 11:35:32 pm
Prop 5 still leading 53.3-46.7 :(


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 11:36:02 pm
wow margin is like 800 votes now.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Flake on November 05, 2013, 11:36:46 pm
McAuliffe up by 2.15

47.57% McAuliffe [Projected Winner]
45.42% Cucinelli
6.58% Sarvis
0.43% Write-in

Northam up by 10.48

55.05% Northam [Projected Winner]
44.65% Jackson
0.31% Write-in

Obenshain up by 0.29

50.07% Obenshain
49.72% Herring
0.21% Write-in

99.72% of the vote is in.

Obenshain leads by 7,459 votes with 7 precincts, in Democratic territory, remaining.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2013, 11:39:39 pm

It's leading by about the same percentage in Westchester County, which is usually a good belwether in statewide elections.  It will pass.  Good jobs will stay in the Adirondacks!  :)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 11:39:50 pm
where are the remaining precincts?  anyone know?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 05, 2013, 11:40:13 pm
928 vote margin, according to WP. Hilarious!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 11:40:46 pm
De Blasio won my precinct with 90.2%. ;D


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2013, 11:41:01 pm
99.8% Reporting...

What's left?

- Prince William County (1.3% left) (D)
- Rockingham County (3.3% left) (R)
- Rockbridge County (5.6% left) (R)
- Bedford County (3.1% left) (R)
- Mecklenburg County (4.2% left) (R)

Now don't let this fool you, Prince William County has more population than all of these counties by far, but still looks like 50/50 vote left, not necessarily democrat territory.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2013, 11:41:15 pm

It's leading by about the same percentage in Westchester County, which is usually a good belwether in statewide elections.  It will pass.  Good jobs will stay in the Adirondacks!  :)

Dude... gross.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 11:41:29 pm
$15 minimum wage in SeaTac is currently passing.

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2013/11/05/seatac-voters-will-decide-on-15-an-hour-minimum-wage/ (http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2013/11/05/seatac-voters-will-decide-on-15-an-hour-minimum-wage/)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: traininthedistance on November 05, 2013, 11:41:49 pm

It's leading by about the same percentage in Westchester County, which is usually a good belwether in statewide elections.  It will pass.  Good jobs will stay in the Adirondacks!  :)

I don't see how spitting in the face of "forever wild" deserves a smiley face here.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2013, 11:42:52 pm
Quote
Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 2m
Fairfax County reporting an additional 7,732 absentees for Herring (D), 4,547 for Obenshain (R) beyond what is reported by state SBE.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 11:43:00 pm
there is obviously going to be a recount.  

didn't someone say there were also like 10,000 absentee ballots from Fairfax or some other big county?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2013, 11:43:12 pm

It's leading by about the same percentage in Westchester County, which is usually a good belwether in statewide elections.  It will pass.  Good jobs will stay in the Adirondacks!  :)

I don't see how spitting in the face of "forever wild" deserves a smiley face here.

There will be more land put into the reserve than taken out.  Everybody wins.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 05, 2013, 11:43:47 pm
I am pretty sure the recent tally changes by AP come from all sort of adjustments/corrections. Too few precincts left, and they are still changing. This is a recount.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 05, 2013, 11:45:30 pm
Not all remaining precincts are in Democratic territory.  By county they are in (from relative R to D):

Rockingham
Bedford 
Mecklenberg
Roanoke
Prince Wiliam
Norfolk (2)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: traininthedistance on November 05, 2013, 11:45:50 pm

It's leading by about the same percentage in Westchester County, which is usually a good belwether in statewide elections.  It will pass.  Good jobs will stay in the Adirondacks!  :)

I don't see how spitting in the face of "forever wild" deserves a smiley face here.

There will be more land put into the reserve than taken out.  Everybody wins.

No, it's the principle of the thing.  "Forever wild" means "forever wild"- and the Adirondacks were very specifically and purposefully created to be forever wild.  You don't f[inks] with that, if words have meaning.

Also, I'll trust the mining company's promise about as far as I can throw it.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Oak Hills on November 05, 2013, 11:46:54 pm

It's leading by about the same percentage in Westchester County, which is usually a good belwether in statewide elections.  It will pass.  Good jobs will stay in the Adirondacks!  :)

Dude... gross.

All right, could somebody fill me in on what Prop 5 is?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 05, 2013, 11:47:26 pm
788 votes.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 11:47:33 pm
The prince William precincts will probably be the largest and the late reporting ones will all be in the more "urban" areas so they will be a big boost to the D depending how many.  The others will all probably go R except maybe Norfolk depending where it is.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2013, 11:49:12 pm
No, it's the principle of the thing.  "Forever wild" means "forever wild"- and the Adirondacks were very specifically and purposefully created to be forever wild.  You don't f[inks] with that, if words have meaning.

Also, I'll trust the mining company's promise about as far as I can throw it.

We vote on land swaps in the Adirondacks all the time.  Every time, at least as much new land is put into the reserve as is taken out.  People live in the Adirondacks.  They need to be able to make a living.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 05, 2013, 11:51:42 pm
Terry McAuliffe is a joke piece of trash. I'm so going to love his disastrous term as Governor.

Has Pretentious Public Polling put out a statement about how horribly wrong they were?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Deus Naturae on November 05, 2013, 11:52:30 pm

It's leading by about the same percentage in Westchester County, which is usually a good belwether in statewide elections.  It will pass.  Good jobs will stay in the Adirondacks!  :)

I don't see how spitting in the face of "forever wild" deserves a smiley face here.

There will be more land put into the reserve than taken out.  Everybody wins.

No, it's the principle of the thing.  "Forever wild" means "forever wild"- and the Adirondacks were very specifically and purposefully created to be forever wild.  You don't f[inks] with that, if words have meaning.

Also, I'll trust the mining company's promise about as far as I can throw it.
I'm fairly sure that would be illegal (the mining company backing out on its obligation, that is).


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 11:53:03 pm
is Newport News all in?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Deus Naturae on November 05, 2013, 11:53:16 pm

It's leading by about the same percentage in Westchester County, which is usually a good belwether in statewide elections.  It will pass.  Good jobs will stay in the Adirondacks!  :)

Dude... gross.

All right, could somebody fill me in on what Prop 5 is?
http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/New_York_Land_Swap_With_NYCO_Minerals_Amendment,_Proposal_5_(2013)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2013, 11:53:57 pm
Terry McAuliffe is a joke piece of trash. I'm so going to love his disastrous term as Governor.

Has Pretentious Public Polling put out a statement about how horribly wrong they were?

Yes, they are working on a joint statement with Barfbag to cover all angles of wrongness regarding the election predictions here.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Flake on November 05, 2013, 11:56:24 pm
(Image Link)

Going to the 51st state initiative, counties in green voted to secede, counties in red voted to stay with Colorado.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: traininthedistance on November 05, 2013, 11:58:41 pm
Well, here's a bit of good news:

With 66% of the vote in, Ken Thompson is rolling, 71.7%-28.3% over Hynes, and is the projected winner.

Looks like all my worry was unwarranted.  Whew!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on November 05, 2013, 11:58:53 pm
Say, does anyone know if the "soda tax" (which would tax orange juice but not Diet Pepsi) passed in Telluride CO?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 06, 2013, 12:00:51 am
The prince William precincts will probably be the largest and the late reporting ones will all be in the more "urban" areas so they will be a big boost to the D depending how many.  The others will all probably go R except maybe Norfolk depending where it is.

For the two precincts that appear to be outstanding in Norfolk: Suburban Park is upper middle class, I'd guess lean Democrat.  Coleman Place is majority black,  probably at least 2/3 Democrat.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: badgate on November 06, 2013, 12:03:43 am
Terry McAuliffe is a joke piece of trash. I'm so going to love his disastrous term as Governor.

Has Pretentious Public Polling put out a statement about how horribly wrong they were?


Ladies and Gentlemen, the natural reaction to not getting the girl.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 06, 2013, 12:04:42 am
The prince William precincts will probably be the largest and the late reporting ones will all be in the more "urban" areas so they will be a big boost to the D depending how many.  The others will all probably go R except maybe Norfolk depending where it is.

For the two precincts that appear to be outstanding in Norfolk: Suburban Park is upper middle class, I'd guess lean Democrat.  Coleman Place is majority black,  probably at least 2/3 Democrat.

then the D is going to gain a significant amount more votes than the R will.  I also thought I saw that part of Newport News was outstanding.  Those will also go D if that's the case.  I think the D can gain 1000 votes in those precincts + PW.  Will probably come down to the R precincts elsewhere.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: RedSLC on November 06, 2013, 12:07:04 am
(Image Link)

Going to the 51st state initiative, counties in green voted to secede, counties in red voted to stay with Colorado.

The green counties have a combined population of less than 30,000 people. How will they justify splitting off?

Also, in the unlikely event that they do secede, CO-4's current representative, Cory Gardner, will have to either retire or move, as he lives in one of those green counties (Yuma County, to be exact).


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 06, 2013, 12:09:58 am
Speaking of not getting the girl, where is Barfbag, did he just not show up for Prom tonight?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Flake on November 06, 2013, 12:10:50 am
Speaking of not getting the girl, where is Barfbag, did he just not show up for Prom tonight?

I think he's recovering from the losses.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 06, 2013, 12:13:06 am
The prince William precincts will probably be the largest and the late reporting ones will all be in the more "urban" areas so they will be a big boost to the D depending how many.  The others will all probably go R except maybe Norfolk depending where it is.

For the two precincts that appear to be outstanding in Norfolk: Suburban Park is upper middle class, I'd guess lean Democrat.  Coleman Place is majority black,  probably at least 2/3 Democrat.

then the D is going to gain a significant amount more votes than the R will.  I also thought I saw that part of Newport News was outstanding.  Those will also go D if that's the case.  I think the D can gain 1000 votes in those precincts + PW.  Will probably come down to the R precincts elsewhere.

No, I think NN is all in now.  VPAP has precinct maps btw: www.vpap.org/elections/live_results/nov_2013?race=attgen

In any case, considering the provisional and absentee ballots and a likely recount, we may not know the winner of the AG race this month.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 06, 2013, 12:13:36 am
Speaking of not getting the girl, where is Barfbag, did he just not show up for Prom tonight?

I think he's recovering from the losses.

He had to know this was coming... I mean every single poll showed McAuliffe up. 


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: badgate on November 06, 2013, 12:14:43 am
Damn, Virginia's AG race is really close. When do y'all think it will finally be called?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 06, 2013, 12:17:08 am
The prince William precincts will probably be the largest and the late reporting ones will all be in the more "urban" areas so they will be a big boost to the D depending how many.  The others will all probably go R except maybe Norfolk depending where it is.

For the two precincts that appear to be outstanding in Norfolk: Suburban Park is upper middle class, I'd guess lean Democrat.  Coleman Place is majority black,  probably at least 2/3 Democrat.

then the D is going to gain a significant amount more votes than the R will.  I also thought I saw that part of Newport News was outstanding.  Those will also go D if that's the case.  I think the D can gain 1000 votes in those precincts + PW.  Will probably come down to the R precincts elsewhere.

No, I think NN is all in now.  VPAP has precinct maps btw: www.vpap.org/elections/live_results/nov_2013?race=attgen

In any case, considering the provisional and absentee ballots and a likely recount, we may not know the winner of the AG race this month.

That link is pretty cool, thanks.  I think NN still has absentee ballots left, a lot of other counties have factored them in already, looks like Fairfax has already.  This is definitely going to a recount, but I think if they count the absentee votes tonight the D will actually take the lead prior to the recount.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Holmes on November 06, 2013, 12:18:52 am
Damn, Virginia's AG race is really close. When do y'all think it will finally be called?

In a month.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 06, 2013, 12:19:34 am
Damn, Virginia's AG race is really close. When do y'all think it will finally be called?

I think it's not gonna get called anytime soon and will go into a long drawn out recount.  Unless we don't know about thousands of absentee votes, etc.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Flake on November 06, 2013, 12:29:43 am
Detroit has its first white mayor in forty years.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 06, 2013, 12:31:22 am
I just looked at that Norfolk map, the democrat will net about 1000 votes out of Norfolk.  This election is going to be dead even probably.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Nichlemn on November 06, 2013, 12:36:51 am
No-one should be surprised at the lack of change in either the NJ or VA assembly. Coattails are overrated. Both the NJ and VA races were a lot more to do with the candidates than the parties, so it's not surprising there were no waves downballot.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 06, 2013, 12:49:44 am
I have no direct evidence of this, but I have to think Virginia was severely gerrymandered as well...

I get that the democratic vote is more concentrated... however, when almost all the Republicans win by 4-8 point margins and almost all the democrats win by 50 point margins, you know whassup.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 06, 2013, 12:51:14 am
De Blasio is winning NYC 73%-24%.  But Lhota is winning Staten Island 54%-44% with 97% in.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Non Swing Voter on November 06, 2013, 12:53:19 am
De Blasio is winning NYC 73%-24%.  But Lhota is winning Staten Island 54%-44% with 97% in.

there are cornfields in State Island.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 06, 2013, 12:56:29 am
De Blasio is winning NYC 73%-24%.  But Lhota is winning Staten Island 54%-44% with 97% in.

lol. Oh well.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on November 06, 2013, 12:57:03 am
De Blasio is winning NYC 73%-24%.  But Lhota is winning Staten Island 54%-44% with 97% in.

How humiliating for Staten Island. But it's really Staten Island that's held the city back for the past 20 years.

Kind of like how Grants Lick is holding Campbell County back.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 06, 2013, 12:58:21 am
Lief will be happy to learn that the AP has projected NY Referendum 5 - the land swap for mining in the Adirondacks - has passed.  The 53%-47% margin is holding.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Siren on November 06, 2013, 01:01:10 am
According to:

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Obenshain (R) lead now stands at 820, but ~600 of that lead appears to be from a reporting error in Sugarland South precinct, Loudoun County


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Flake on November 06, 2013, 01:16:28 am
According to:

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Obenshain (R) lead now stands at 820, but ~600 of that lead appears to be from a reporting error in Sugarland South precinct, Loudoun County

?? What??? It's only a 200 vote race now??


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on November 06, 2013, 01:21:10 am
Oh wow, just reading all the results - Cuccinelli came painfully close. :(


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on November 06, 2013, 01:32:57 am
Per AP:
1,097,259  Obenshain (GOP)
1,097,106  Herring (Dem)
 
2536/2541 Precincts

Obershain +153

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2013/by_county/VA_Page_1105.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 06, 2013, 01:34:19 am
Looks like it will be a few days.... goodnight everybody.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 06, 2013, 01:51:45 am
Hold on....

It looks like for the first time tonight, Mark Herring has stepped in front of Mark Obenshain just barely. Looks like the final precinct of Newport News came in. There are still some outstanding precincts in the middle of the state so don't go into victory mode or anything.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 06, 2013, 02:18:50 am
Herring ahead by 616 votes according to AP. Obenshain is still ahead according to the board of elections, though (by some 7,500 votes).

Whatever.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Indy Texas on November 06, 2013, 02:19:33 am
According to WP, Obenshain is ahead by 1,191 votes.

How are they higher in the vote total than SBOE? 

The SBOE is always behind.

then who do the news sources get their numbers from?

The union bosses and ACORN leaders who are stuffing ballot boxes in a back room at CNBC headquarters.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 06, 2013, 02:25:12 am
There are still 3 Republicans in the NY City Council. In addition to the two Islanders, Ulrich survived in Queens. So, only one pick-up for the Dems. Still, 48:3 is a decent performance for them :)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 06, 2013, 02:26:27 am
I remember staying up until 5 AM to see if Heidi Heitkamp, Shelley Berkley, and Jon Tester were going to win. I'm not nearly as invested in Herring vs. Obenshain, yet I'm still awake for some reason.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: badgate on November 06, 2013, 02:26:50 am
Hey traininthedistance - congrats on Ken Thompson :D


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: DINGO Joe on November 06, 2013, 02:27:53 am
(Image Link)

Going to the 51st state initiative, counties in green voted to secede, counties in red voted to stay with Colorado.

The green counties have a combined population of less than 30,000 people. How will they justify splitting off?

Also, in the unlikely event that they do secede, CO-4's current representative, Cory Gardner, will have to either retire or move, as he lives in one of those green counties (Yuma County, to be exact).

Kick 'em out, declare them a territory and take away their farm subsidies.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2013, 02:38:48 am
Herring: 1,098,388
Obenshain: 1,097,772

Difference: 616

Still 4 precincts outstanding 


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on November 06, 2013, 02:44:27 am
Herring: 1,098,388
Obenshain: 1,097,772

Difference: 616

Still 4 precincts outstanding 

Kind of gets back at the GOP for that Wisconsin Supreme Court "election" they rigged a couple years ago. Anyone else remember that?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Hifly on November 06, 2013, 02:47:04 am
How do we know how many absentee/provisional ballots are left for the VA House races?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 06, 2013, 02:47:15 am
Herring: 1,098,388
Obenshain: 1,097,772

Difference: 616

Still 4 precincts outstanding 

Yeah, this one won't be decided until December.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Flake on November 06, 2013, 02:48:07 am
Herring: 1,098,388
Obenshain: 1,097,772

Difference: 616

Still 4 precincts outstanding 

I did a little math and if those precincts get around a 40% turnout, it should get Obenshain between 100 to 700 votes.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: badgate on November 06, 2013, 02:50:31 am
If there is a runoff it will become a magnet for both sides in Washington.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 06, 2013, 04:37:31 am
Terry McAuliffe is a joke piece of trash.

Hey, we agree on something.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 06, 2013, 05:18:14 am
Time to check in for a post:

The results are about as expected, but T-Mac's victory was quite close. Closer than the polls said.

Interesting how low turnout was, especially in New York City - where just 20% voted.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 06, 2013, 07:45:07 am
Westchester County Executive

ASTORINO(R)    55%
BRAMSON(D)     45%

with 81% of Districts reporting.  So Bramson's attempt to nationalize the race by linking Astorino to the Tea Party failed although he did reduce the margin of victory for Astorino from 2009 when Astorino won with 57% of the vote.

As usual Westchester county is the slowest vote counting region in all of USA.  11 hours after the polls closed they only have results from 81% of the district.  This is really sad.

Now that Astorino has won the main focus will be on the Westchester County Council where the Dems had a 10-7 edge over the GOP.  The main goal of the GOP is to avoid losing 2 seats and stop the Dems from getting a veto-overriding majority.  Right now it is 9-6 for Dems with 2 seats neck-to-neck.  So it will end up being R+1, D+1, or flat.  I suspect it will end up being flat.  Also since 2 Dems on the Council often votes with the GOP the GOP had a de facto 9-8 majority on many issues including the budget.  So it is also important for the GOP not to lose any seats. 

The partisan breakdown in Westchster can be see in the vote for Family Court Judge where all parities (GOP, Dem, Working Families, Conservative, and Independent) endorsed the same candidate.  The vote by party line is instructive on the partisan breakdown of the electorate (62% Dem, 28% GOP, 5% Conservative, 2% Working Families, 2% Independent.)   This is a far cry from the 1950s when Westchester was a GOP bastion.  Of course the GOP does much better than these numbers suggest mainly because of the property tax issue and the Federal Government Fair housing issue where the Obama regime is trying to push for zoning laws to allow for low income housing.  When low income housing is mentioned is when the upper middle-class white liberal progressive fascade comes off and they vote for GOP block such changes.  You see, it is fine for my progressive neighbors to talk about how liberal progressive and open-minded they are.  But when it comes to real low-income minorities living in the same neighbhoods and going to the same schools is when all of that bunk comes crashing down. 


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Badger on November 06, 2013, 07:53:44 am
Terry McAuliffe is a joke piece of trash. I'm so going to love his disastrous term as Governor.

Has Pretentious Public Polling put out a statement about how horribly wrong they were?

Someone's butthurt.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 06, 2013, 08:54:43 am
Terry McAuliffe is a joke piece of trash. I'm so going to love his disastrous term as Governor.

Has Pretentious Public Polling put out a statement about how horribly wrong they were?

Someone's butthurt.

It's ok. I anxiously await the snake oil salesman's unpopulararity bringing down the VA Dems.

By the way, you really don't have to comb through my posts and throw jabs.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Senator Cris on November 06, 2013, 09:04:48 am
Attorney General

2539/2541

M. Obenshain (R) 1,098,948
M. Herring (D) 1,098,895

Obenshain + 53 votes!!!!



Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: RedSLC on November 06, 2013, 09:50:38 am
One more in...

Precincts in: 2,540/2,541

Mark Obenshain (R) - 1,099,198 votes
Mark Herring (D) - 1,099, 054 votes

Obenshain +144

Looks like this will come down to the very last precinct.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 06, 2013, 09:57:01 am
What happens if there's a vote tie ?

Is a lot drawn ?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 06, 2013, 10:00:14 am
It looks like Prince Williams County is the last county to have a precinct out! 


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: DINGO Joe on November 06, 2013, 10:01:01 am
One more in...

Precincts in: 2,540/2,541

Mark Obenshain (R) - 1,099,198 votes
Mark Herring (D) - 1,099, 054 votes

Obenshain +144

Looks like this will come down to the very last precinct.

Well there will still be some absentee and provisional votes that will be added, as someone mentioned upthread, Obama's margin grew by about 1% after election day.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2013, 10:01:32 am
It looks like Prince Williams County is the last county to have a precinct out! 

Based on where it is on the map it could be a Republican area though :(


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 06, 2013, 10:10:55 am
It looks like Prince Williams County is the last county to have a precinct out! 

Based on where it is on the map it could be a Republican area though :(

Uh oh!  Link? 


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Flake on November 06, 2013, 10:17:01 am
The last precinct is in mecklenburg county and that precinct voted >60% Republican in 2012. Herring has to win the vote by mail / provisional vote. Either way there will still be a recount.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Holmes on November 06, 2013, 10:18:53 am
So absentees and a recount. Dun dun duuuuun.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: rbt48 on November 06, 2013, 10:42:39 am
Huffington Post has these numbers with all precincts in:

Mark Obenshain  1,099,412
Mark Herring  1,099,126

That is a lead of 286 votes.

If there are provisional votes to be counted, they almost always lean D.  If there are absentee ballots, I'd guess they would be a wash.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Flake on November 06, 2013, 10:56:13 am
The Virginia board of elections has it at

1,099,302 Obenshain
1, 098,984 Herring

A margin of 314 votes


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on November 06, 2013, 11:11:24 am
So, what do you expect with absentees? How many voted would Herring/Obenshain get?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: DINGO Joe on November 06, 2013, 11:15:47 am
So, what do you expect with absentees? How many voted would Herring/Obenshain get?

In Virginia, historically absentees skew towards metropolitan areas and especially towards NoVA.  They've almost always benefited the Dems as votes are finalized.  Now I don't know if the BoEs have gotten more efficient at processing absentees.  I doubt it.  I wouldn't be surprised if there are still 15,000 votes or more to processed.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on November 06, 2013, 11:19:26 am
So, bad news for Obenshain?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 06, 2013, 11:28:09 am
The absentees have been counted already, no? It's just provisionals we're waiting for.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: DINGO Joe on November 06, 2013, 11:32:37 am
The absentees have been counted already, no? It's just provisionals we're waiting for.

Absentees can be received through election day.  Some counties can count everything election night, bigger counties tend to add some absentees later. 


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 06, 2013, 11:46:40 am
There are still 3 Republicans in the NY City Council. In addition to the two Islanders, Ulrich survived in Queens. So, only one pick-up for the Dems. Still, 48:3 is a decent performance for them :)

Though district 48 turned out to be not close at all in the end: D 55.1, R 39.1. You Russians are crazy.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: rbt48 on November 06, 2013, 12:36:42 pm
Anyone have final Nassau County (NY) results including the County Legislature?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 06, 2013, 01:17:19 pm
Interesting that VA polling was 4.2% too D in 2013 and 4.1% too D in 2009.  I think this was more a matter of public pollsters failing to account for how skewed odd-year vs. presidential turnout is than anything about McAuliffe, Cuccinelli or Obama. 


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 06, 2013, 01:18:52 pm
Also I'm curious as to whether McAuliffe carried any of the 8 R-held congressional districts?  Based on the map I think only CD-10 would be in doubt.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 06, 2013, 01:22:44 pm
Interesting that VA polling was 4.2% too D in 2013 and 4.1% too D in 2009.  I think this was more a matter of public pollsters failing to account for how skewed odd-year vs. presidential turnout is than anything about McAuliffe, Cuccinelli or Obama. 

Yet pollsters got the Lt. Gov and AG races more or less correct. Probably a "shy tory" effect for Kooch.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 06, 2013, 01:27:18 pm
Interesting that VA polling was 4.2% too D in 2013 and 4.1% too D in 2009.  I think this was more a matter of public pollsters failing to account for how skewed odd-year vs. presidential turnout is than anything about McAuliffe, Cuccinelli or Obama. 

Yet pollsters got the Lt. Gov and AG races more or less correct. Probably a "shy tory" effect for Kooch.

Good point.  Northam still getting his 10 point win and Herring still getting a tie suggests something personal about McAuliffe.  Maybe the Ewww factor was more even than we realized.  This is also the first election where NOVA truly swung everything.  Cuccinelli wins without Fairfax.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Badger on November 06, 2013, 01:31:31 pm
Terry McAuliffe is a joke piece of trash. I'm so going to love his disastrous term as Governor.

Has Pretentious Public Polling put out a statement about how horribly wrong they were?

Someone's butthurt.

It's ok. I anxiously await the snake oil salesman's unpopulararity bringing down the VA Dems.

By the way, you really don't have to comb through my posts and throw jabs.

You'll notice from my posting history I was actively following this thread. Don't flatter yourself.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 06, 2013, 02:05:04 pm
Terry McAuliffe is a joke piece of trash. I'm so going to love his disastrous term as Governor.

Has Pretentious Public Polling put out a statement about how horribly wrong they were?

Someone's butthurt.

It's ok. I anxiously await the snake oil salesman's unpopulararity bringing down the VA Dems.

By the way, you really don't have to comb through my posts and throw jabs.

You'll notice from my posting history I was actively following this thread. Don't flatter yourself.

I've noticed in other threads, you respond/bump older posts of mine when returning from one of your extended periods away from this place. ;)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 06, 2013, 02:14:01 pm
Kooch has not called T-Mac and has no plans to do so. The poor guy must be too busy crying that he won't get to oppress women for the next four years.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/terry-mcauliffe-elected-governor-of-virginia-after-bitter-race-against-ken-cuccinelli/2013/11/06/6d8a8c9a-46b0-11e3-b6f8-3782ff6cb769_story.html?hpid=z1


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 06, 2013, 02:22:44 pm
Kooch has not called T-Mac and has no plans to do so. The poor guy must be too busy crying that he won't get to oppress women for the next four years.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/terry-mcauliffe-elected-governor-of-virginia-after-bitter-race-against-ken-cuccinelli/2013/11/06/6d8a8c9a-46b0-11e3-b6f8-3782ff6cb769_story.html?hpid=z1

Good to know that Kookinelli on a scale of douchbaggery reaches the lofty heights of Marilyn Musgrave.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 06, 2013, 02:26:44 pm
Kooch has not called T-Mac and has no plans to do so. The poor guy must be too busy crying that he won't get to oppress women for the next four years.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/terry-mcauliffe-elected-governor-of-virginia-after-bitter-race-against-ken-cuccinelli/2013/11/06/6d8a8c9a-46b0-11e3-b6f8-3782ff6cb769_story.html?hpid=z1

Good to know that Kookinelli on a scale of douchbaggery he reaches the lofty heights of Marilyn Musgrave.

Sheesh. A few more missteps and Terry might start to sweat. Cuccinelli would be closing in on him in yet another contest!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 06, 2013, 03:06:55 pm
Anyone have final Nassau County (NY) results including the County Legislature?

http://www.nassaucountyny.gov/agencies/boe/results.html

With all but one precinct in:

County Executive
Mangano (R) 58.7%
Suozzi (D) 41.0%

District Attorney
Rice (D) 58.7%
Sturim (R) 41.3%

Comptroller
Maragos (R) 52.6%
Weitzman (D) 47.4%

County Clerk
O'Connell (R) 56.9%
Gillen (D) 43.1%

By my tally, Republicans retain control of the Nassau County Legislature, 10-8-1, with the 1 being a cross-endorsed Democrat who caucuses with Republicans.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: njwes on November 06, 2013, 03:13:54 pm

It's leading by about the same percentage in Westchester County, which is usually a good belwether in statewide elections.  It will pass.  Good jobs will stay in the Adirondacks!  :)

Dude... gross.

Yes yes, how dare those conservative white trash country yokels actually get good job opportunities. Whenever these sorts of environmental issues crop up it's a nice reminder that many liberals and leftists don't actually care about working people.

Anyway, the results were pretty predictable. I was actually a bit surprised that Christie broke 60, and VERY surprised at how big the swing was in Hudson County!

The lack of change in the legislature is disappointing but hey, 2 more assembly seats are better than none, and there were actually several seats in both chambers (3 Senate seats in particular) that had very close margins. So despite some pretty efficient gerrymandering, I'd say NJ isn't at, say, VA levels of locked-in seats.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 06, 2013, 03:47:41 pm
Kooch has not called T-Mac and has no plans to do so. The poor guy must be too busy crying that he won't get to oppress women for the next four years.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/terry-mcauliffe-elected-governor-of-virginia-after-bitter-race-against-ken-cuccinelli/2013/11/06/6d8a8c9a-46b0-11e3-b6f8-3782ff6cb769_story.html?hpid=z1

How dumb of him. All it's going to do is make him look bad. I doubt McAuliffe is kept up at night because Cooch never personally conceded to him.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 06, 2013, 03:48:04 pm
The absentees have been counted already, no? It's just provisionals we're waiting for.

Absentees from most counties are included in the State Board of Elections tally.  Best I can tell, the only ones that the spreadsheet doesn't show a central absentee precinct for is Buena Vista City (R-leaning), Craig County (R-leaning), Norton City (R-leaning, but it only has 1 precinct, so absentees could have been folded in) and Sussex County (D-leaning) - though I might have missed a few counties.

Some provisionals are included in the State BoE tally.  We're generally talking about single-digit votes in the counties where they are in, though.  So I wouldn't expect much from them.

When I downloaded the spreadsheet to do the analysis about a half hour ago, the State BoE tally was:
Obenshain 1,101,029   
Herring 1,099,900   
Write-in 4704
So Obenshain + 1,129 -  a margin thinner than the write-ins.

It has since gone up to
Obershain 1,101,073   
Herring 1,099,904   
Write-in 4,920
Or Obershain +1,169


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Badger on November 06, 2013, 04:24:43 pm
Terry McAuliffe is a joke piece of trash. I'm so going to love his disastrous term as Governor.

Has Pretentious Public Polling put out a statement about how horribly wrong they were?

Someone's butthurt.

It's ok. I anxiously await the snake oil salesman's unpopulararity bringing down the VA Dems.

By the way, you really don't have to comb through my posts and throw jabs.

You'll notice from my posting history I was actively following this thread. Don't flatter yourself.

I've noticed in other threads, you respond/bump older posts of mine when returning from one of your extended periods away from this place. ;)

They're only a bump to the rest of you when I return from a sojourn in the real world; they're fresh and pithy responses from my perspective. :P


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 06, 2013, 06:11:22 pm
And after some recanvassing, particularly in Prince William County, Herring takes a 32-vote lead in the State BoE tally:

Obenshain   1,100,798   49.89%   
Herring   1,100,830   49.89%   
Write-in   4,973   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,206,601   


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Badger on November 06, 2013, 06:33:28 pm
And after some recanvassing, particularly in Prince William County, Herring takes a 32-vote lead in the State BoE tally:

Obenshain   1,100,798   49.89%   
Herring   1,100,830   49.89%   
Write-in   4,973   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,206,601   

:o

Just :o

So do we know if this is with absentees or without? Anyone know the schedule for counting provisionals?

My guess is Obershain is screwed at this point.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on November 06, 2013, 06:37:57 pm
A 32 vote lead, you can't make this up!

At this point, I'm REALLY glad that I voted.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: traininthedistance on November 06, 2013, 06:39:39 pm

It's leading by about the same percentage in Westchester County, which is usually a good belwether in statewide elections.  It will pass.  Good jobs will stay in the Adirondacks!  :)

Dude... gross.

Yes yes, how dare those conservative white trash country yokels actually get good job opportunities. Whenever these sorts of environmental issues crop up it's a nice reminder that many liberals and leftists don't actually care about working people.

Bull.  Those "good job opportunities" are inevitably far fewer, and far worse, than promised, and then when the mining company leaves (as it inevitably will, eventually), the people there will be worse off than before.

Hitching your star to resource extraction* is one of the worst economic development strategies there is.  I mean, I recognize that it is inevitably not seen that way (for various reasons) by most people living in those areas; and I do recognize that it's also not the sort of activity we can afford to eliminate entirely.  But we do need to reserve the ability to proscribe it from areas where it's particularly inappropriate (of which the Adirondacks happen to be such an area), and to have regulations with teeth that ensure proper mitigation.  

And it is definitely the case that, although rural development is a tricky thing, seeing through the false promise of "mining jobs" and understanding that there is a counterbalancing greater good to keep in mind should not and cannot be misconstrued as "not caring about working people".

*Mining in particular.  Forestry and fishery have their own sets of issues, but as a rule are much less destructive, or at least can be if done in a halfway-responsible manner.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 06, 2013, 06:52:59 pm
A 32 vote lead, you can't make this up!

At this point, I'm REALLY glad that I voted.

I'm sure everyone who did a write in is regretting they didn't.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Flake on November 06, 2013, 06:54:18 pm
So with this current 32 vote lead:

Mark Herring (Democrat):         49.888%
Mark Obenshain (Republican): 49.887%
Write-in:                                   0.225%


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 06, 2013, 06:59:45 pm
And after some recanvassing, particularly in Prince William County, Herring takes a 32-vote lead in the State BoE tally:

Obenshain   1,100,798   49.89%   
Herring   1,100,830   49.89%   
Write-in   4,973   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,206,601   

:o

Just :o

So do we know if this is with absentees or without? Anyone know the schedule for counting provisionals?

My guess is Obershain is screwed at this point.

I don't think anyone is screwed.  The most recent changes came from canvassing errors.  There could be more of them in either candidate's favor.  Canvassing errors tend to be random and don't help or harm any particular party.

Most, if not all absentees are in.  A few counties/cities have returns that don't include a central absentee precinct - but it's not clear if they have to have one.  The jurisdictions that don't have a listed central absentee precinct tend to favor Obenshain.  The provisional votes that have been counted in some counties are few - we're talking single digit total votes.  There might not be many provisional ballots to be counted.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Badger on November 06, 2013, 07:08:07 pm
And after some recanvassing, particularly in Prince William County, Herring takes a 32-vote lead in the State BoE tally:

Obenshain   1,100,798   49.89%   
Herring   1,100,830   49.89%   
Write-in   4,973   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,206,601   

:o

Just :o

So do we know if this is with absentees or without? Anyone know the schedule for counting provisionals?

My guess is Obershain is screwed at this point.

I don't think anyone is screwed.  The most recent changes came from canvassing errors.  There could be more of them in either candidate's favor.  Canvassing errors tend to be random and don't help or harm any particular party.

Most, if not all absentees are in.  A few counties/cities have returns that don't include a central absentee precinct - but it's not clear if they have to have one.  The jurisdictions that don't have a listed central absentee precinct tend to favor Obenshain.  The provisional votes that have been counted in some counties are few - we're talking single digit total votes.  There might not be many provisional ballots to be counted.

Well, given that provisionals tend to favor Dems, and as you said the jurisidictions with unreported central absentee precincts tend to favor Herring (or rather the ones without such precincts favor Obershain, ergo...), that makes it quite unlikely Obershain's deficit will increase. Not likely by much, but when he's already behind even slightly that's still a bad thing.

It sounds like he needs to rely on a few counting/recording errors in his favor to be discovered in order to win. Not impossible, but not likely either.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 06, 2013, 07:36:41 pm
Well, given that provisionals tend to favor Dems, and as you said the jurisidictions with unreported central absentee precincts tend to favor Herring (or rather the ones without such precincts favor Obershain, ergo...), that makes it quite unlikely Obershain's deficit will increase. Not likely by much, but when he's already behind even slightly that's still a bad thing.

It sounds like he needs to rely on a few counting/recording errors in his favor to be discovered in order to win. Not impossible, but not likely either.

There will be more tabulation errors.  There always are tabulation errors in the preliminary tally.  Normally, we don't notice because the margin isn't razor-thin.

There's a theory (probably correct) on Red Racing Horses that the flip itself was caused by a data entry error.  The precinct in Prince William that changed most in the recanvassing was 306 - Washington-Reid.  It went from 636-758-3 (R-D-Write-in) to 636-1517-3 - an increase of 759 votes for Herring, which is coincidentally one more vote than he received in the pre-recanvass tally.  McAulliffe is listed as winning that precinct 745-609-55-1.  And Obama only won Washington-Reid by 99 votes, 976-877.  I doubt Herring did that much better than Obama or outpolled McAuliffe by 700.

 


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Badger on November 06, 2013, 07:53:48 pm
Well, given that provisionals tend to favor Dems, and as you said the jurisidictions with unreported central absentee precincts tend to favor Herring (or rather the ones without such precincts favor Obershain, ergo...), that makes it quite unlikely Obershain's deficit will increase. Not likely by much, but when he's already behind even slightly that's still a bad thing.

It sounds like he needs to rely on a few counting/recording errors in his favor to be discovered in order to win. Not impossible, but not likely either.

There will be more tabulation errors.  There always are tabulation errors in the preliminary tally.  Normally, we don't notice because the margin isn't razor-thin.

There's a theory (probably correct) on Red Racing Horses that the flip itself was caused by a data entry error.  The precinct in Prince William that changed most in the recanvassing was 306 - Washington-Reid.  It went from 636-758-3 (R-D-Write-in) to 636-1517-3 - an increase of 759 votes for Herring, which is coincidentally one more vote than he received in the pre-recanvass tally.  McAulliffe is listed as winning that precinct 745-609-55-1.  And Obama only won Washington-Reid by 99 votes, 976-877.  I doubt Herring did that much better than Obama or outpolled McAuliffe by 700.

 

Normally I'd say tabulation errors can benefit either candidate equally, but that's a very specific example that should cheer VA Republicans. Good show, Cinyc!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 06, 2013, 08:25:13 pm
...and the Prince William County tabulation error has been fixed on the Virginia State Board of Elections' website.  Obenshain is now ahead by 726:

Obenshain   1,100,798   49.90%   
Herring   1,100,072   49.87%   
Write-in   4,973   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,205,843   


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Flake on November 06, 2013, 08:58:26 pm
Obenshain lead decreased from 726 to 679.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: rbt48 on November 06, 2013, 09:29:36 pm
What about the legislatures?  From what I could count, the  NJ Senate remains 24D - 16R.  I counted two Rep gains in the Assembly for a 46D - 34R split.

In Virginia, the Senate (of course) remained 20 - 20 with a shift in majority party due to the change in party of the Lt Gov.  I counted a two seat D gain in the House (many near misses), but apparently a one seat D loss in an uncontested district (go figure that one).  I infer that the new House of Delegates will be 67R - 33D.

Please correct as needed.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: sg0508 on November 06, 2013, 11:22:02 pm
When it's that close, there is no way that the results are "legit".  You can't trust officials in this country.  That's what is very scary.

As for Nassau County (my home), the GOP cleaned up here last night.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Flake on November 07, 2013, 11:05:25 am
Obenshain leading by about 500 votes.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 07, 2013, 11:34:32 am
The swing map for the southwest:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Indy Texas on November 07, 2013, 12:07:13 pm
This razor-thin AG race brings to mind the US Senate race in New Hampshire in 1974 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_1974).

Louis Wyman (R) -- 110,926 -- 49.662%
John A. Durkin (D) -- 110,924 -- 49.661%

They ended up holding another election in the summer of 1975, which Durkin won by over 10 points.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 07, 2013, 12:30:09 pm

Hey Miles, could you check results/swing for VA-10 (the westernmost NOVA seat)?  It looks like McAuliffe did much better than Obama there and the winner may be in doubt.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 07, 2013, 01:03:11 pm

Hey Miles, could you check results/swing for VA-10 (the westernmost NOVA seat)?  It looks like McAuliffe did much better than Obama there and the winner may be in doubt.

Yeah, I'll do that next.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 07, 2013, 01:38:34 pm
Westchester County is finally done 40 hours after the polls closed.  For County Executive it is

ROB ASTORINO(R)   56%
NOAM BRAMSON(D) 44%

This is almost the same as 2009 when Astorino won 57% of the vote in a surprise victory.  It seems the property tax and low-income housing issues still has legs here in Westchester.  Looking at the ads it is also clear Astorino clearly outspent Bramson by a wide margin.  I am pretty sure Astorino will run for NY governor 2018.

The Vote for Family Court Judge is in useful as all parties nominated the same person but looking at the line people voted for this unanimous candidate gives us a good idea the partisan breakdown of voters that turned out.

DEM                   53%
GOP                   35%
Conservative        7%
Working Families  3%
Independent        3%

So Right/Left split is around 42/56.

There are no turnover for County Legislature as the Dems successfully defended two open seats and GOP beat back Dem attempts to capture two vulnerable GOP incumbents.   So in the end it will stay 10-7 for the Dems.  With the same 2 Dem legislators voting with the GOP on budget issues being reelected without GOP competition, this means Astorino will not face a Dem veto-proof majority and in fact will have a de facto 9-8 majority as it continues to face off with the Obama regime over the low-income fair housing battles.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 07, 2013, 01:44:02 pm
I want to go back and double check this because they renamed a few precincts in Prince William County, but it looks like Cooch won CD10 by about 2,000 votes.

(Image Link)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 07, 2013, 02:36:48 pm
Wow, that was fast.  :D  Thanks Miles! 


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 07, 2013, 02:48:01 pm
vpap.org on twitter (https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/statuses/398463499841458177) claims that there are 3,100 provisional ballots outstanding in Virginia: 293 no ID; 723 not registered and 2,084 requested absentee ballot or already marked as having voted.

Of course, not all provisional ballots will be counted.  In 2009, there were only 739 provisional ballots counted across the entire state (https://twitter.com/Redistrict/statuses/398532976167772160).  They broke 389-350 for the Republican gubernatorial candidate, McDonnell - about 6 points less Republican than the overall statewide tally.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 07, 2013, 03:14:30 pm
I want to go back and double check this because they renamed a few precincts in Prince William County, but it looks like Cooch won CD10 by about 2,000 votes.

(Image Link)

Thanks!  Wow, it's right in line with 50/49 Romney in 2012.  The western areas look to have really saved Cuccinelli from the Fairfax swing.  The other interesting one would be VA-02, which Obama narrowly won last year.  It looks on par with 2012, but with the suburbs swinging D while downtown turnouts dropped.  Could you do that one when you get the chance?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 07, 2013, 04:16:30 pm
CD2 was mirror image of CD10; McAuliffe won by about 2K votes:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 07, 2013, 05:08:37 pm
So both of the competitive CDs look just like 2012.  Very fascinating.  This means they both moved left relative to the state.  It also looks like a pretty sure thing that McAuliffe did better than Obama % wise in VA-08.  So it will be very interesting to see where Cuccinelli did a lot better than Romney to offset that and create a tighter statewide race.  My guess is that Cuccinelli overperformed most in VA-09, VA-04 and VA-03.  VA-05 is a mixed bag because the Charlottesville area was a lot more D than in 2012.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 07, 2013, 05:29:17 pm
New Virginia State BoE totals:

Obenshain   1,101,317   49.90%   
Herring   1,100,540   49.87%   
Write-in   4,982   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,206,839   

Obenshain + 777


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: gay gay gay bathhouses on November 07, 2013, 11:36:51 pm
And according to Dave Wasserman, 3,000 absentee ballots might be missing from the most Democratic House district in Fairfax. (https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/398635347430494208) An official in Fairfax County also says he's convinced there's an issue. (https://twitter.com/BrianSchoeneman/status/398664698008440832)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2013, 10:41:28 am
And according to Dave Wasserman, 3,000 absentee ballots might be missing from the most Democratic House district in Fairfax. (https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/398635347430494208) An official in Fairfax County also says he's convinced there's an issue. (https://twitter.com/BrianSchoeneman/status/398664698008440832)

This would probably put Herring over the top for good!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on November 08, 2013, 11:42:15 am
And according to Dave Wasserman, 3,000 absentee ballots might be missing from the most Democratic House district in Fairfax. (https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/398635347430494208) An official in Fairfax County also says he's convinced there's an issue. (https://twitter.com/BrianSchoeneman/status/398664698008440832)

This would probably put Herring over the top for good!
Except there still will be a recount, right?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Holmes on November 08, 2013, 12:18:13 pm
There will be a recount, fighting, grandstanding, lawsuits, whining, you can expect it all.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Аverroës 🦉 on November 08, 2013, 12:47:09 pm
Crossposting:



Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 08, 2013, 01:04:45 pm
And according to Dave Wasserman, 3,000 absentee ballots might be missing from the most Democratic House district in Fairfax. (https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/398635347430494208) An official in Fairfax County also says he's convinced there's an issue. (https://twitter.com/BrianSchoeneman/status/398664698008440832)

This would probably put Herring over the top for good!

Well, sure, but they have to actually find those ballots first...


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 08, 2013, 03:39:30 pm
New numbers from the Virginia State Board of Elections' website:   

Obenshain   1,102,039   49.92%   
Herring   1,100,767   49.86%   
Write-in   4,994   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,207,800

Obenshain +1,272

This was largely due to a missing precinct in Bedford County.  The supposedly missing Fairfax absentees are not reflected yet.  Those should give Herring the lead if/when included.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on November 08, 2013, 04:58:38 pm
The VA AG race is starting to remind me of Franken v Coleman for MN Senate 2008...which dragged on for months.

Soon they will be disputed ballots like this one from that race
(Image Link)



Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: rbt48 on November 08, 2013, 05:20:41 pm
So if there are really 3,000 missing absentee ballots from Fairfax County, Herring needs to win them by about 70 to 30% in order to make up the 1200 vote deficit  (2,100 to 900).  I don't see that happening. 

Barring another significant error, looks like Obenshain is the next VA AG to me.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 08, 2013, 05:31:18 pm
So if there are really 3,000 missing absentee ballots from Fairfax County, Herring needs to win them by about 70 to 30% in order to make up the 1200 vote deficit  (2,100 to 900).  I don't see that happening. 

Barring another significant error, looks like Obenshain is the next VA AG to me.

Judging from the precincts these supposed absentees come from, I've seen people suggesting they could break 65-35, 70-30, or even 75-25. And it's still possible random revisions and errors could happen which help or hurt either candidate. This will probably go down to the wire.

Of course, this assumes that these absentees actually exist. So far they're still hypothetical.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 08, 2013, 05:32:25 pm
According to the Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/nearly-2000-votes-in-fairfax-possibly-uncounted/2013/11/08/d1c163f4-48aa-11e3-b6f8-3782ff6cb769_story.html), there are 1,951 unrecorded votes in Fairfax County's Mason district voting center. 

If those are all the missing absentees and there are no other changes, Herring would need to win about 82.5% of them to erase Obenshain's 1,272 vote lead.  The CD-8 absentees that are in so far are 73.5% Herring.

According to the Fairfax County Electoral Board (http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/news/2013/electoral-board-statement-election-nov-8-2013.htm), there's an open meeting tomorrow at 10AM to present the results of the absentee ballot investigation, and a meeting on the county's provisional ballots starting at 2PM.  They expect concluding the overall canvass on Sunday.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 08, 2013, 05:38:58 pm
Also I'm curious as to whether McAuliffe carried any of the 8 R-held congressional districts?  Based on the map I think only CD-10 would be in doubt.

The second is in doubt.  My numbers have a 47%-47% tie with Cooch ahead by about 100 votes.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 08, 2013, 08:12:30 pm
Obenshain now has a 130 vote lead after the absentees were counted. But provisionals have yet to be counted. Dave Wasserman says Herring could net 122 votes from provisionals: https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/398944289922617344

Let the litigating begin.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 08, 2013, 08:13:36 pm
Unofficially via Twitter (https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/398943878293630977), the good news for Herring, there were 3,008 missing absentees found in Fairfax County.  The bad news is that they only broke 68.8% for Herring, so he's still behind by 120 or 130 after another 10 votes were found for him in the unofficial Fairfax recanvass.

It will come down to the provisional ballots and any additional mistallies.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 08, 2013, 08:47:21 pm
I am rooting for an exact tie!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: DINGO Joe on November 08, 2013, 09:47:19 pm

Especially if the tiebreaker is a steel cage match.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 09, 2013, 02:29:56 am
The 2-party swing in Fairfax/Arlington Counties and the surrounding municipalities from 2012 to 2013:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 09, 2013, 02:52:53 am
The 2-party swing in Fairfax/Arlington Counties and the surrounding municipalities from 2012 to 2013:

(Image Link)


Wow.  The more I think about this election, the more it suggests to me that Obama actually overperformed generic progressive D in rural areas and that there is still ground for Democrats to gain in wealthy suburbs.  The populist anti-Romney rhetoric probably did sway things at both sides of the spectrum.  If 2016 is suburban D vs. Tea Party R, I would expect the polarization to increase further (maybe 70%D in Fairfax and  70% R in WV?). 


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 09, 2013, 08:54:33 am
Virginia Beach/Hampton. I would have included Suffolk, but it had too many precinct shape changes that I didn't want to deal with.

(Image Link)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Sbane on November 09, 2013, 10:49:27 am
I think these maps show the effect of minority turnout going down. The reason Cuccinelli didn't lose by 7-8 points is because a key part of the Obama coalition stayed home.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: DINGO Joe on November 09, 2013, 08:47:20 pm
The vboe website has the Obenshain margin down to 59 votes.  The blogger notlarrysabato has the margin at 15 votes.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 09, 2013, 11:01:29 pm
The latest numbers from the Virginia State Board of Elections, which includes the missing Fairfax absentees:

Obenshain   1,103,436   49.88%   
Herring   1,103,381   49.88%   
Write-in   5,145   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,211,962

Or Obenshain +55.

The results don't include the known provisional ballots from Richmond city, which should net Herring another 11 votes, leaving Obenshain with a 44-vote lead.

Provisionals are still out from 44 localities, including Fairfax County, which has up to 490 that might be counted.  And canvassing is still going on, so some other errors might be out there.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ag on November 09, 2013, 11:27:40 pm
Tie! Tie!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 10, 2013, 02:09:28 am
Wow! This is amazing. We won't know who will be Virginia's Attorney General for awhile.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: publicunofficial on November 10, 2013, 03:13:28 am
Whoever wins will have the other side crying fraud.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on November 10, 2013, 04:25:28 am
Whoever wins will have the other side crying fraud.

This




Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: DINGO Joe on November 10, 2013, 11:11:36 am
The latest numbers from the Virginia State Board of Elections, which includes the missing Fairfax absentees:

Obenshain   1,103,436   49.88%   
Herring   1,103,381   49.88%   
Write-in   5,145   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,211,962

Or Obenshain +55.

The results don't include the known provisional ballots from Richmond city, which should net Herring another 11 votes, leaving Obenshain with a 44-vote lead.

Provisionals are still out from 44 localities, including Fairfax County, which has up to 490 that might be counted.  And canvassing is still going on, so some other errors might be out there.

According to Wasserman, there was another error, this time in Richmond which when corrected will give Herring an 82 vote lead.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Flake on November 10, 2013, 11:15:02 am
The latest numbers from the Virginia State Board of Elections, which includes the missing Fairfax absentees:

Obenshain   1,103,436   49.88%   
Herring   1,103,381   49.88%   
Write-in   5,145   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,211,962

Or Obenshain +55.

The results don't include the known provisional ballots from Richmond city, which should net Herring another 11 votes, leaving Obenshain with a 44-vote lead.

Provisionals are still out from 44 localities, including Fairfax County, which has up to 490 that might be counted.  And canvassing is still going on, so some other errors might be out there.

According to Wasserman, there was another error, this time in Richmond which when corrected will give Herring an 82 vote lead.

This entire race is so confusing.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: DINGO Joe on November 10, 2013, 11:57:54 am
The latest numbers from the Virginia State Board of Elections, which includes the missing Fairfax absentees:

Obenshain   1,103,436   49.88%   
Herring   1,103,381   49.88%   
Write-in   5,145   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,211,962

Or Obenshain +55.

The results don't include the known provisional ballots from Richmond city, which should net Herring another 11 votes, leaving Obenshain with a 44-vote lead.

Provisionals are still out from 44 localities, including Fairfax County, which has up to 490 that might be counted.  And canvassing is still going on, so some other errors might be out there.

According to Wasserman, there was another error, this time in Richmond which when corrected will give Herring an 82 vote lead.

This entire race is so confusing.

Well, you're not old enough to remember, but once upon a time there was this Presidential race between a man made of wood and a man with no brain and it came down to the state of Florida and mythical things called "hanging chads" and "butterfly ballots".... that was confusing.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 10, 2013, 12:19:38 pm
What exactly does the VA election law say if there's an exact tie ?

Will the SBOE draw lots, will the candidates engage in an old-school duel like below ?

(Image Link)

Or does the law not say what needs to be done in a scenario like this, because some side will rig the election anyway ?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: DINGO Joe on November 10, 2013, 12:22:21 pm
What exactly does the VA election law say if there's an exact tie ?

Will the SBOE draw lots, will the candidates engage in an old-school duel like below ?

(Image Link)

Or does the law not say what needs to be done in a scenario like this, because some side will rig the election anyway ?

It goes to the general assembly, so a tie would go to the Rs. 


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on November 10, 2013, 03:30:49 pm
The 2-party swing in Fairfax/Arlington Counties and the surrounding municipalities from 2012 to 2013:

(Image Link)


Wow.  The more I think about this election, the more it suggests to me that Obama actually overperformed generic progressive D in rural areas and that there is still ground for Democrats to gain in wealthy suburbs. 
The wealthiest suburbs are one place where there was a bit of a flowback in 2012, so "duh". (Yes, including in Arlington and Loudoun. Not in Fairfax taken as a whole but that's probably the Republican collapse among new minorities. I'm sure it happened in the northwest of the county.)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 10, 2013, 07:27:58 pm
Its a few days old, but here's a Youtube video of Wasserman (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0tRbrj3LQQ) explaining the AG race.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: gay gay gay bathhouses on November 10, 2013, 10:02:39 pm
The lead is cut to 17. (https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/399725037512441856)

What should I sacrifice for a Herring win?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 10, 2013, 10:23:31 pm
The lead is cut to 17. (https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/399725037512441856)

What should I sacrifice for a Herring win?

Nothing.  Barring some other unknown error, Herring should pull ahead after the Fairfax County provisionals are counted on Tuesday.  It's hard to see them going for Obenshain.

The actual numbers, from the Virginia Board of Elections' website:

Obenshain   1,103,443   49.88%   
Herring   1,103,426   49.88%   
Write-in   5,152   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,212,021   

Obenshain +17


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 10, 2013, 10:30:28 pm
I wonder how those people who did write in votes feel?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: DINGO Joe on November 10, 2013, 10:33:57 pm
The current lead is .000769%

If the report of the Richmond precinct is true then Herring will have 100 vote lead before Fairfax provisionals, if not, then it's still pretty grey as provisionals can be erratic.  And of course, there could still be other errors out there and a recount is inevitable.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 10, 2013, 10:51:42 pm
I wonder how those people who did write in votes feel?

Probably nothing.  People who write in candidates are dumb.  :P   


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat on November 10, 2013, 10:57:13 pm
My favorite tied election procedure, at least in the United States, is New Mexico's poker game method.

And yeah, you shouldn't sacrifice anything for a Herring win that is very probably in the pipeline unless something notably changes in the recount (which, granted, is itself quite possible).


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: DINGO Joe on November 10, 2013, 10:59:34 pm
I wonder how those people who did write in votes feel?

Some of those of those write-ins probably were for Obenshain or Herring, and probably misspelled too.  I don't think that they get counted for the candidate.  


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on November 11, 2013, 04:53:10 am
In New Jersey: The GOP will pick up an Assembly seat in the southernmost LD01. They currently lead for a second seat in Bergen County's LD38 (Paramus), but provisional ballots in Dem-friendly towns may erase that pickup still. In Atlantic County's LD02 (Atlantic City), Republicans appear to have lost an Assembly seat in an upset.

There's was no partisan change in the NJ State Senate, which was a bit of a disappointment for the GOP. Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. fended off a leadership challenge from Sen. Kevin O'Toole by a 10 to 6 caucus vote; Christie was supposedly siding with O'Toole.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Flake on November 11, 2013, 12:23:08 pm
Imagine how bad the Virginia Republican Party would had lost if Cuccinelli hadn't purged the voting rights of 40,000.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 11, 2013, 01:22:09 pm
Black voters turned out in disproportionately high numbers while hispanic/young turnout was relatively low (http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal-a/2013_11/more_on_va_and_the_africanamer047719.php); the black vote likely saved McAuliffe:

Quote
In 2009, Virginia voters were 78 percent white and 22 percent minority. In 2013, they were just 72 percent white and 28 percent minority—not far off the 70/30 split in the 2012 presidential election. There you have the key to McAuliffe’s victory: Despite performing much better among white voters than the hapless Creigh Deeds, McDonnell’s Democratic opponent, McAuliffe would nevertheless have lost this election if the white/minority voter distribution had mirrored that of 2009. It was the increase in the minority vote that put him over the top.

But here’s the thing: according to the exits, the Hispanic/Asian percentage of the vote came in this year at 2009 (5%), not 2012 (8%) levels. And the age composition of the electorate was very much like that of 2009, not 2012. Nor was there any “super sizing” of the overall electorate; total turnout was up a bit from 2009, but nowhere remotely close to presidential levels. So what we are looking at is not some sudden change in the overall size or configuration of the off-year vote, but a pretty isolated but very significant surge in African-American turnout.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 11, 2013, 01:40:54 pm
Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 36s
BREAKING: #ShockoeSlipUp gives Herring (D) #VAAG lead by 99 votes.>> MT @JoeStGeorge Herring total from 501 is 983.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on November 11, 2013, 02:24:58 pm
Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 36s
BREAKING: #ShockoeSlipUp gives Herring (D) #VAAG lead by 99 votes.>> MT @JoeStGeorge Herring total from 501 is 983.

Well if Herring wins, it would be the first time since 1965 that VA democrats would have won the 3 executive offices, the 2 senate seats and the presidential race before the gubernational election :D.
 


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 11, 2013, 02:56:25 pm
Herring now leads by 115 votes, after the Richmond board has finished its re-canvassing.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 11, 2013, 03:25:54 pm
So we know that VA will have 2 special elections for the tied state senate no matter who wins the AG race.  Do we have McAuliffe/Cuccinelli stats for:

SD-33 (Herring)- was ~59% Obama 2012
SD-26 (Obenshain)- was ~60% Romney
SD-06 (Northam)- was ~57% Obama 2012


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: bballrox4717 on November 11, 2013, 05:19:34 pm
If Obenshain loses, who does the GOP have as a Governor candidate for next election?

Bill Bolling if he hasn't severed all ties with the party by that point. Deeds also won the nomination for governor after losing the attorney general race by a similar margin as Obenshain.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Flake on November 11, 2013, 05:21:33 pm
So, four precincts, according to Dave Wasserman, are incorrect, all of which are in Richmond city.  Precinct 603 is expected to give Herring one vote, Precinct 607 is expected to give Herring six votes, Precinct 802 is expected to give Herring nine votes, which if those go as planned, Obenshain wins by one vote vote.

However, Precinct 501 is expected to give Herring 116 votes, so Herring is expected to win the state by 115 votes overall.

Fairfax elections guy:

(Image Link)

(Image Link)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 11, 2013, 05:22:39 pm
If Obenshain loses, who does the GOP have as a Governor candidate for next election?

Bill Bolling if he hasn't severed all ties with the party by that point. Deeds also won the nomination for governor after losing the attorney general race by a similar margin as Obenshain.

Bolling would likely have a tough time at the convention. Allen is probably done with politics.

A name being floated around over at RedRacingHorses, who I think actually may be good, is Rigell.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 11, 2013, 05:26:33 pm
If Obenshain loses, who does the GOP have as a Governor candidate for next election?

Ken Cuccinelli.

(Seriously)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 11, 2013, 05:27:48 pm
If Obenshain loses, who does the GOP have as a Governor candidate for next election?

Bill Bolling if he hasn't severed all ties with the party by that point. Deeds also won the nomination for governor after losing the attorney general race by a similar margin as Obenshain.

Bolling would likely have a tough time at the convention. Allen is probably done with politics.

A name being floated around over at RedRacingHorses, who I think actually may be good, is Rigell.

Rigell wouldn't be able to win a convention either though. They selected E.W. Jackson for god's sake.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: True Federalist on November 11, 2013, 05:28:27 pm
If Obenshain loses, who does the GOP have as a Governor candidate for next election?

Bill Bolling if he hasn't severed all ties with the party by that point. Deeds also won the nomination for governor after losing the attorney general race by a similar margin as Obenshain.

Bolling would likely have a tough time at the convention. Allen is probably done with politics.

A name being floated around over at RedRacingHorses, who I think actually may be good, is Rigell.

That assumes Rigell survives 2014. (I presume if he plans to run for governor in 2017, he won't run for reelection in 2016 when he'd face an even tougher battle.)  Rigell is potentially vulnerable, especially if we get a second shutdown.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: gay gay gay bathhouses on November 11, 2013, 07:23:54 pm
Herring has taken the lead by 115. (http://m.timesdispatch.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/election/herring-now-holds-lead-in-ag-race/article_3b85bcac-4abf-11e3-bec2-001a4bcf6878.html?mode=jqm)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Flake on November 11, 2013, 07:52:03 pm
Herring has taken the lead by 115. (http://m.timesdispatch.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/election/herring-now-holds-lead-in-ag-race/article_3b85bcac-4abf-11e3-bec2-001a4bcf6878.html?mode=jqm)

So, four precincts, according to Dave Wasserman, are incorrect, all of which are in Richmond city.  Precinct 603 is expected to give Herring one vote, Precinct 607 is expected to give Herring six votes, Precinct 802 is expected to give Herring nine votes, which if those go as planned, Obenshain wins by one vote vote.

However, Precinct 501 is expected to give Herring 116 votes, so Herring is expected to win the state by 115 votes overall.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 11, 2013, 08:01:10 pm
New numbers from the Virginia State Board of Elections website:

Obenshain   1,103,493   49.88%   
Herring   1,103,610   49.89%   
Write-in   5,152   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,212,255

Or Herring + 117


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 11, 2013, 08:10:13 pm
I have the utmost confidence the RPV will use a primary for the nomination process in 2017. I don't know about next year for the Senate race against Warner, but I am confident they will after that. I'm highly certain they have learned from the Jackson situation.

I think so too, but maybe not if this is the Republicans' conclusion from last week:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 11, 2013, 08:19:00 pm
Problem isn't the mechanism but rather campaigns and/or candidates. All the infamous Pub nutters (not that Cooch is remotely in that league) won primaries. Only difference is that you'd have a gotten a decent LG candidate, probably Snyder.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ModerateVAVoter on November 11, 2013, 08:24:23 pm
Problem isn't the mechanism but rather campaigns and/or candidates. All the infamous Pub nutters (not that Cooch is remotely in that league) won primaries. Only difference is that you'd have a gotten a decent LG candidate, probably Snyder.

I still think had the RPV used a primary, it wouldn't have caused as much deep resentment and divide within the party, particularly with Bolling. There were plenty of Republicans I know who simply didn't vote for Cuccinelli because they thought he acquired the nomination through dishonest means. There were plenty of people I know who wrote in Bolling or stayed home (granted some Republicans came home to Cuccinelli towards the end).

I think the LG Candidate would have actually made a fair difference. Jackson dragged down the ticket with his quotes about religious diversity, Haiti and natural disasters, etc. which created more problems for the RPV to deal with.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 11, 2013, 08:30:01 pm
Oh, I agree on LG, anyone but Jackson would've been fine, ideally Snyder.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Maxwell on November 11, 2013, 08:43:11 pm
I have the utmost confidence the RPV will use a primary for the nomination process in 2017. I don't know about next year for the Senate race against Warner, but I am confident they will after that. I'm highly certain they have learned from the Jackson situation.

I think so too, but maybe not if this is the Republicans' conclusion from last week:

(Image Link)

Gilmore also ran against the most popular figure in Virginia.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 11, 2013, 09:46:25 pm
"Any questions?"

I have one: in what warped universe is Jim Gilmore considered a moderate?

I guess in the same one where Mitch McConnell and Saxby Chambliss are considered RINOs.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Maxwell on November 11, 2013, 09:49:22 pm
Republicans are inevitably going to nominate someone against Mark Warner, but how about an obvious sacrificial lamb who gets no coverage rather than someone who is going to embarrass the party all year?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 12, 2013, 12:53:47 am
JohnnyLongtorso, who used to post here and is one of my all-time favorites, did a good diary over at DKE (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/11/09/1254337/-Political-Malpractice-in-Action-Wasted-Money-in-the-Virginia-House-of-Delegates-Races) on the Democrat's failure to make tangible gains in the House of Delegates.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 12, 2013, 01:04:14 am
JohnnyLongtorso, who used to post here and is one of my all-time favorites, did a good diary over at DKE (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/11/09/1254337/-Political-Malpractice-in-Action-Wasted-Money-in-the-Virginia-House-of-Delegates-Races) on the Democrat's failure to make tangible gains in the House of Delegates.

Wow. That's really pathetic and annoying. Great article though.

It's really frustrating to look at how close (http://www.vpap.org/elections/live_results/nov_2013?race=house) a lot of those Republican wins were.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on November 12, 2013, 01:23:16 am
"Any questions?"

I have one: in what warped universe is Jim Gilmore considered a moderate?

I guess in the same one where Mitch McConnell and Saxby Chambliss are considered RINOs.

For reals. The correct distinction would be "Tea Party Zealot" vs "Mainstream Conservative."


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Maxwell on November 12, 2013, 08:47:34 pm
62% of the results in for Tulsa Mayor, and the results are strong for the incumbent mayor and bad for the Oklahoma Democrats next big hope:

Mayor Dewey Bartlett (R): 57%
Former Mayor Kathy Taylor (D): 43%

This is inspite of the endorsement of the city's biggest newspaper for Taylor, a former Republican city councilor for Taylor, and Taylor being able to spend over $3 Million in this mayors race. The race to look at more closely is the City Auditor race, where Dewey Bartlett's appointee may go down.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 12, 2013, 09:10:38 pm
Update from the Virginia State Board of Elections' website:

Obenshain   1,103,512   49.88%   
Herring   1,103,618   49.89%   
Write-in   5,125   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,212,255   

Or Herring +106.

That's before the 271 accepted Fairfax County provisional ballots are counted.  They are counting them right now.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Maxwell on November 12, 2013, 09:25:50 pm
Yep, they're calling it: The Dem's next big hope is dead in Oklahoma

Mayor Dewey Bartlett (R): 57%, 35,687 Votes
Former Mayor Kathy Taylor (D): 43%, 27,059 Votes

With 83% of the Precincts in, this race is pretty much over.

City Auditor, however, is neck and neck, but it looks like the opposition candidate (who seems to be a Fiscally Conservative Dem) may have the upper hand over Dewey's hand-picked favorite:

Cathy Criswell (D): 52%, 28,569 votes
Clift Richards (R): 48%, 26,706 votes


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 12, 2013, 09:42:36 pm
The Fairfax County provisionals went 160-103 Herring.   So the final tally going into the recount should be Herring +163.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 12, 2013, 11:05:25 pm
The Fairfax County provisionals went 160-103 Herring.   So the final tally going into the recount should be Herring +163.

:'(


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: johnbuterbaugh on November 12, 2013, 11:14:26 pm
njelections.org just released the U.S. Senate special election results by municipality.
(Image Link)
Also this: (Image Link)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 13, 2013, 01:21:13 am
Tulsa by precinct:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: smoltchanov on November 13, 2013, 02:36:01 am
Miles, what will you say about Arkansas SD-21 election? I know that Republican nominee is very much a "tea party man" (big minus from my personal view, but, probably, not too much from NE Arkansas people view) and that, contrary to the norm, more people voted in Republican primary then in Democratic. What about Democratic nominee (Rockwell)? A Democrat must be of rather conservative type (IMHO) to have a chance there.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 13, 2013, 05:48:57 am
Miles, what will you say about Arkansas SD-21 election? I know that Republican nominee is very much a "tea party man" (big minus from my personal view, but, probably, not too much from NE Arkansas people view) and that, contrary to the norm, more people voted in Republican primary then in Democratic. What about Democratic nominee (Rockwell)? A Democrat must be of rather conservative type (IMHO) to have a chance there.

Wow, the runoff was super close. (http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AR/49992/123113/en/summary.html) Rockwell won by 24 votes and Cooper won by 67 votes.

Rockwell strikes me as a type of business-oriented Democrat that could win here.

This is one of those areas that hasn't had Republican local representation since Reconstruction...I hate to see these seats flip.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 13, 2013, 03:06:35 pm
Presumably final update from the Virginia State Board of Elections' Website before the recount:

Obenshain   1,103,613   49.88%   
Herring   1,103,777   49.89%   
Write-in   4,926   0.22%   
Total Votes   2,212,316

Herring +164


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 14, 2013, 01:01:25 pm
The caucuses for the special election in Lt Gov-elect Ralph Northam's 6th district will be on Nov 16 for the Democrats and Nov 21 for the Republicans. Any voter in the district will be allowed to vote in either - or both!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 14, 2013, 01:10:11 pm
The caucuses for the special election in Lt Gov-elect Ralph Northam's 6th district will be on Nov 16 for the Democrats and Nov 21 for the Republicans. Any voter in the district will be allowed to vote in either - or both!

Democrats have three candidates (http://hamptonroads.com/2013/11/democrats-choose-candidate-saturday-northams-senate-seat)
Quote
Three Democrats have announced candidacies: Lynwood Lewis, an Eastern Shore delegate who just won a sixth House term; Andria McClellan, who was Northam’s campaign treasurer; and former Norfolk Del. Paula Miller

I personally like McClellan the most.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 14, 2013, 05:47:06 pm
Turnout for the Gov. race 2009 vs. 2013

(Image Link)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 14, 2013, 06:47:19 pm
The caucuses for the special election in Lt Gov-elect Ralph Northam's 6th district will be on Nov 16 for the Democrats and Nov 21 for the Republicans. Any voter in the district will be allowed to vote in either - or both!

Democrats have three candidates (http://hamptonroads.com/2013/11/democrats-choose-candidate-saturday-northams-senate-seat)
Quote
Three Democrats have announced candidacies: Lynwood Lewis, an Eastern Shore delegate who just won a sixth House term; Andria McClellan, who was Northam’s campaign treasurer; and former Norfolk Del. Paula Miller

I personally like McClellan the most.

Hey Miles, I have one more request for you.  In light of the upcoming special elections, could you do McAuliffe/Cuccinelli numbers for SD-06 (Northam), SD-33 (Herring) and just in case, SD-26 (Obenshain)?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: JacobNC on November 14, 2013, 06:56:07 pm
Miles!  I almost didn't recognize you.  When did you become a Republican?!


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 14, 2013, 07:10:34 pm
Miles!  I almost didn't recognize you.  When did you become a Republican?!

Could you tell it was me by my signature? ;)

Its a Forum Community thing. Its not permanent; some of us are showing solidarity with the Mods.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 14, 2013, 07:59:22 pm

Hey Miles, I have one more request for you.  In light of the upcoming special elections, could you do McAuliffe/Cuccinelli numbers for SD-06 (Northam), SD-33 (Herring) and just in case, SD-26 (Obenshain)?

McAuliffe-Cuccinelli-Sarvis

SD06: 52-41-7
SD26: 35-59-6
SD33: 55-39-6

Calculations. (http://www.pictureshack.us/images/68842_62633.png)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 14, 2013, 08:36:46 pm
62% of the results in for Tulsa Mayor, and the results are strong for the incumbent mayor and bad for the Oklahoma Democrats next big hope:

Mayor Dewey Bartlett (R): 57%
Former Mayor Kathy Taylor (D): 43%

This is inspite of the endorsement of the city's biggest newspaper for Taylor, a former Republican city councilor for Taylor, and Taylor being able to spend over $3 Million in this mayors race. The race to look at more closely is the City Auditor race, where Dewey Bartlett's appointee may go down.


$3 million??? For a city of what, 1 million? Where the turnout will probably be what, 20%?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: PulaskiSkywayDriver on November 15, 2013, 12:00:36 am
Here is the Hudson Data. Notice the MASSIVE swing in Union City because of the Stack machine help but also the huge swing in Hoboken which seems to be trending Republican at the top of the ticket with the exception of the Booker-Lonegan race. The Harrison mayoral endorsement made for a mini Union City in that town. The smaller swing toward Christie in Bayonne and Kearny (only two below trend) is interesting.


Hudson County Data for Gov Race (W/o Provisionals)
Town     Buo  Chr   Total        Margin       Swing       Trend (Vs. State)
Bayonne 5262   5302   10564   0.38%   15.94%   -2.86%
East Newark 145   75   220   -31.82%   19.44%   0.64%
Guttenberg 732   638   1370   -6.86%   41.88%   23.08%
Harrison 755   893   1648   8.37%   53.63%   34.83%
Hoboken 5467   6439   11906   8.16%   42.18%   23.38%
Jersey City 20225   9709   29934   -35.13%   23.39%   4.59%
Kearny 2655   2624   5279   -0.59%   14.35%   -4.45%
North Bergen 6764   4278   11042   -22.51%   30.27%   11.47%
Secaucus 1723   2207   3930   12.32%   28.39%   9.59%
Union City 4624   6604   11228   17.63%   75.18%   56.38%
Weehawken 1395   1065   2460   -13.41%   32.00%   13.20%
WNY 3168   2403   5571   -13.73%   32.93%   14.13%


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 15, 2013, 12:13:13 am

I'm surprised there were so many places with greatly increased turnout.  People did not like these candidates.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on November 15, 2013, 12:18:42 am
Here is the Hudson Data. Notice the MASSIVE swing in Union City because of the Stack machine help but also the huge swing in Hoboken which seems to be trending Republican at the top of the ticket with the exception of the Booker-Lonegan race. The Harrison mayoral endorsement made for a mini Union City in that town. The smaller swing toward Christie in Bayonne and Kearny (only two below trend) is interesting.


Hudson County Data for Gov Race (W/o Provisionals)
Town     Buo  Chr   Total        Margin       Swing       Trend (Vs. State)
Bayonne 5262   5302   10564   0.38%   15.94%   -2.86%
East Newark 145   75   220   -31.82%   19.44%   0.64%
Guttenberg 732   638   1370   -6.86%   41.88%   23.08%
Harrison 755   893   1648   8.37%   53.63%   34.83%
Hoboken 5467   6439   11906   8.16%   42.18%   23.38%
Jersey City 20225   9709   29934   -35.13%   23.39%   4.59%
Kearny 2655   2624   5279   -0.59%   14.35%   -4.45%
North Bergen 6764   4278   11042   -22.51%   30.27%   11.47%
Secaucus 1723   2207   3930   12.32%   28.39%   9.59%
Union City 4624   6604   11228   17.63%   75.18%   56.38%
Weehawken 1395   1065   2460   -13.41%   32.00%   13.20%
WNY 3168   2403   5571   -13.73%   32.93%   14.13%

Naturally, the areas of Hudson where Christie did best are those with the most middle class and affluent white voters (Hoboken). Union City is especially interesting because it's 84.7% Hispanic. There's a huge concentration of Cuban voters there that haven't voted Republican since 1985.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: DINGO Joe on November 15, 2013, 01:07:46 am

I'm surprised there were so many places with greatly increased turnout.  People did not like these candidates.

Part of the change in turnout was population gain or loss.  Plus, it was a more competitive campaign.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 17, 2013, 12:24:30 am
The turnout maps looks a lot like the swing map to me:

()

I know I happened to use red for more votes, but still.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: johnbuterbaugh on November 18, 2013, 03:31:29 pm
The population decrease and Creigh Deeds of Bath County not being a candidate resulted in fewer voters in Bath, Highland, and Allegany Counties. Southwest Virginia is experiencing population decline and, as a result, fewer voters. Loudoun and Prince William Counties are seeing significant population increase, and significantly more voters turned out as a result.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Flake on November 19, 2013, 10:16:50 pm
There is a vote right now in Albuquerque trying to restrict women's access to abortions.

No election day votes have been counted yet, but so far:

Absentee Voting:

For: 4,046
Against: 2,273
Total: 6,319

For: 69.73%
Against: 30.27%


Early Voting:
For: 18,078
Against: 25,719

Total: 43,797

For: 41.28%
Against: 58.72%


Total vote:

For: 44.15%
Against: 55.85%


Note: The election day vote is still not available.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 19, 2013, 10:21:20 pm
There is a vote right now in Albuquerque trying to restrict women's access to abortions.

No election day votes have been counted yet, but so far:

Absentee Voting:

For: 4,046
Against: 2,273
Total: 6,319

For: 69.73%
Against: 30.27%


Early Voting:
For: 18,078
Against: 25,719

Total: 43,797

For: 41.28%
Against: 58.72%


Total vote:

For: 44.15%
Against: 55.85%


Note: The election day vote is still not available.

This will probably go down in flames.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Flake on November 19, 2013, 10:26:19 pm
There is a vote right now in Albuquerque trying to restrict women's access to abortions.

No election day votes have been counted yet, but so far:

Absentee Voting:

For: 4,046
Against: 2,273
Total: 6,319

For: 69.73%
Against: 30.27%


Early Voting:
For: 18,078
Against: 25,719

Total: 43,797

For: 41.28%
Against: 58.72%


Total vote:

For: 44.15%
Against: 55.85%


Note: The election day vote is still not available.

This will probably go down in flames.

I hope so.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 19, 2013, 10:39:25 pm
There is a vote right now in Albuquerque trying to restrict women's access to abortions.

No election day votes have been counted yet, but so far:

Absentee Voting:

For: 4,046
Against: 2,273
Total: 6,319

For: 69.73%
Against: 30.27%


Early Voting:
For: 18,078
Against: 25,719

Total: 43,797

For: 41.28%
Against: 58.72%


Total vote:

For: 44.15%
Against: 55.85%


Note: The election day vote is still not available.

This will probably go down in flames.

I hope so.

Is this a local ballot initiative? If so, the republicans must control the municipality (which seems highly unlikely), otherwise, why would democrats put up a vote like this?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: publicunofficial on November 19, 2013, 10:48:36 pm
There is a vote right now in Albuquerque trying to restrict women's access to abortions.

No election day votes have been counted yet, but so far:

Absentee Voting:

For: 4,046
Against: 2,273
Total: 6,319

For: 69.73%
Against: 30.27%


Early Voting:
For: 18,078
Against: 25,719

Total: 43,797

For: 41.28%
Against: 58.72%


Total vote:

For: 44.15%
Against: 55.85%


Note: The election day vote is still not available.

This will probably go down in flames.

I hope so.

Is this a local ballot initiative? If so, the republicans must control the municipality (which seems highly unlikely), otherwise, why would democrats put up a vote like this?

It's a citizen's referendum


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Flake on November 20, 2013, 09:24:45 pm
The initiative was defeated in a 55-44 margin.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 20, 2013, 09:25:40 pm
There is a vote right now in Albuquerque trying to restrict women's access to abortions.

No election day votes have been counted yet, but so far:

Absentee Voting:

For: 4,046
Against: 2,273
Total: 6,319

For: 69.73%
Against: 30.27%


Early Voting:
For: 18,078
Against: 25,719

Total: 43,797

For: 41.28%
Against: 58.72%


Total vote:

For: 44.15%
Against: 55.85%


Note: The election day vote is still not available.

This will probably go down in flames.

I hope so.

Is this a local ballot initiative? If so, the republicans must control the municipality (which seems highly unlikely), otherwise, why would democrats put up a vote like this?

It's a citizen's referendum

ah, right.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Flake on November 25, 2013, 11:35:37 am
So the abortion restrictions bill failed 55-45, and Mark Herring has been certified in the Virginia attorney general race by the state board of elections.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 25, 2013, 11:53:47 am
Obenshain has 10 days to ask for a recount; hopefully this should be wrapped up by Christmas.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on November 26, 2013, 02:20:25 pm
You could have got this for individual counties on the VA Public Access Project site, but here's how NOVA voted by precinct. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/local/2013-elections/precincts/#)


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 27, 2013, 09:50:26 pm
Obenshain has 10 days to ask for a recount; hopefully this should be wrapped up by Christmas.

Obenshain officially asked for a recount today (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/nov/27/obenshain-files-petition-recount-virginia-attorney/), filing the necessary petition in Richmond Circuit Court.  The official certified margin is Herring +165 votes:

Obenshain   1,103,612   49.89%   
Herring         1,103,777   49.89%   
Write-in               4,892   0.22%   
Total Votes   2,212,281   


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on December 02, 2013, 11:39:01 am
VA Governor-by-CD. (http://go.bloomberg.com/political-capital/2013-12-02/how-virginia-governors-election-explains-republican-house-edge/) I was right about 2 and 10!

McAulilffe/Cuccinelli

CD1- 42/52
CD2- 47/45
CD3- 75/19
CD4- 45/48
CD5- 41/51
CD6- 35/58
CD7- 38/52
CD8- 68/27
CD9- 32/61
CD10- 47/48
CD11- 60/35


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on December 02, 2013, 12:18:25 pm
VA Governor-by-CD. (http://go.bloomberg.com/political-capital/2013-12-02/how-virginia-governors-election-explains-republican-house-edge/) I was right about 2 and 10!

McAulilffe/Cuccinelli

CD1- 42/52
CD2- 47/45
CD3- 75/19
CD4- 45/48
CD5- 41/51
CD6- 35/58
CD7- 38/52
CD8- 68/27
CD9- 32/61
CD10- 47/48
CD11- 60/35
And I guess that CD2, CD4 and CD10 are trending dem?


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 02, 2013, 05:01:05 pm
VA Governor-by-CD. (http://go.bloomberg.com/political-capital/2013-12-02/how-virginia-governors-election-explains-republican-house-edge/) I was right about 2 and 10!

McAulilffe/Cuccinelli

CD1- 42/52
CD2- 47/45
CD3- 75/19
CD4- 45/48
CD5- 41/51
CD6- 35/58
CD7- 38/52
CD8- 68/27
CD9- 32/61
CD10- 47/48
CD11- 60/35
And I guess that CD2, CD4 and CD10 are trending dem?

Nah, the 2012 results were similar:

Obama/Romney

CD1: 46/53
CD2: 50/49
CD3: 79/20
CD4: 49/50
CD5: 46/52
CD6: 39/59
CD7: 42/57
CD8: 68/31
CD9: 35/63
CD10: 49/50
CD11: 62/36


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on December 02, 2013, 07:13:58 pm
Apparently Obenshain won CD10 (https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/407632109369434113) by 72 votes.


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on December 02, 2013, 11:18:04 pm
VA Governor-by-CD. (http://go.bloomberg.com/political-capital/2013-12-02/how-virginia-governors-election-explains-republican-house-edge/) I was right about 2 and 10!

McAulilffe/Cuccinelli

CD1- 42/52
CD2- 47/45
CD3- 75/19
CD4- 45/48
CD5- 41/51
CD6- 35/58
CD7- 38/52
CD8- 68/27
CD9- 32/61
CD10- 47/48
CD11- 60/35
And I guess that CD2, CD4 and CD10 are trending dem?

Nah, the 2012 results were similar:

Obama/Romney

CD1: 46/53
CD2: 50/49
CD3: 79/20
CD4: 49/50
CD5: 46/52
CD6: 39/59
CD7: 42/57
CD8: 68/31
CD9: 35/63
CD10: 49/50
CD11: 62/36

McAuliffe lagged Obama 2012 by 1.4% and still performed the same in the two competitive districts.  That suggests they are either moving slowly left or they don't swing much at all. 


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on December 17, 2013, 01:42:10 pm
VA Governor-by-CD. (http://go.bloomberg.com/political-capital/2013-12-02/how-virginia-governors-election-explains-republican-house-edge/) I was right about 2 and 10!

McAulilffe/Cuccinelli

CD1- 42/52
CD2- 47/45
CD3- 75/19
CD4- 45/48
CD5- 41/51
CD6- 35/58
CD7- 38/52
CD8- 68/27
CD9- 32/61
CD10- 47/48
CD11- 60/35
And I guess that CD2, CD4 and CD10 are trending dem?

Nah, the 2012 results were similar:

Obama/Romney

CD1: 46/53
CD2: 50/49
CD3: 79/20
CD4: 49/50
CD5: 46/52
CD6: 39/59
CD7: 42/57
CD8: 68/31
CD9: 35/63
CD10: 49/50
CD11: 62/36

Obama won by 4, Mcauliffe by 2. So CD2 and CD10 are trending dem :D


Title: Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
Post by: Miles on January 12, 2014, 04:36:06 pm
We mentioned the Arkansas SD21 special; the general election is Tuesday.

Here's a good RRH diary on it. (http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/3510/arkansas-state-senate-district-21-special-election)