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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on November 22, 2013, 06:03:23 am



Title: FL-Quinnipiac: Hillary in good shape, but Bush makes it close
Post by: Tender Branson on November 22, 2013, 06:03:23 am
Head to head, Clinton gets 47 percent to Bush's 45 percent.

She tops other Republicans:

    45 - 41 percent over Christie;
    50 - 43 percent over Rubio;
    51 - 41 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
    50 - 42 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin;
    52 - 36 percent over Cruz.

Florida voters say 56 - 39 percent that Clinton would make a good president, the best score of any candidate, followed by Christie at 45 - 35 percent, with Bush at a split 46 - 44 percent. All other candidates get negative scores, including Rubio with 39 - 47 percent.

Florida voters disapprove 57 - 40 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, matching his all-time worst score, a 57 - 39 percent disapproval, in a September 22, 2011, Quinnipiac University poll.

Disapproval is 93 - 6 percent among Republicans and 64 - 34 percent among independent voters, while Democrats approve 79 - 16 percent. Women disapprove 52 - 44 percent and men disapprove 63 - 35 percent.

Voters oppose the Affordable Care Act 54 - 39 percent, with partisan numbers that roughly match the president's approval rating.

...

From November 12 - 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,646 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 668 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points and 544 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1980


Title: Re: FL-Quinnipiac: Hillary in good shape, but Bush makes it close
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 22, 2013, 03:17:20 pm
Makes sense. Florida is perfect for Clinton. She should win it fairly easily (as far as swing states go).


Title: Re: FL-Quinnipiac: Hillary in good shape, but Bush makes it close
Post by: Consciously Unconscious on November 22, 2013, 03:38:00 pm
Bush could win Florida. 


Title: Re: FL-Quinnipiac: Hillary in good shape, but Bush makes it close
Post by: JRP1994 on November 22, 2013, 04:20:37 pm
Oldie (July) but goldie from Nate Cohn at The New Republic:

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/113833/gop-latino-problem-republicans-need-florida-hispanics

"Florida was so close [in 2012] because the GOP has already made huge gains among white voters—bigger than any other battleground state. Obama lost Florida’s whites by 24 points, 10 points worse than Kerry’s more modest, 14 point defeat in 2004."

"Early polls show Hillary Clinton crushing in Florida by a double-digit margin because she’s doing far, better among whites than Obama—about as well as Gore. Those tallies would have been a deadheat a decade ago, but now result in a comfortable Democratic win."

"The pace of demographic change in Florida should alarm Republicans. Think about it like this: Kerry lost Florida by 5 points in 2004. Then, Obama did 10 points worse among whites. All of this was countered and overwhelmed by demographic change and an improved showing among non-whites. Kerry’s performance among white voters would have yielded a 7-point win in 2012—12 points better than his 5 point defeat in 2004."


Title: Re: FL-Quinnipiac: Hillary in good shape, but Bush makes it close
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 22, 2013, 07:00:16 pm
Republicans have to win this state.


Title: Re: FL-Quinnipiac: Hillary in good shape, but Bush makes it close
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 23, 2013, 03:31:26 pm
Hillary Clinton wins 18-29 year olds 67-22, even against Bush.

Although age crosstabs are usually unreliable, if that's even close to true, FL will continue to slip further and further from the GOP.


Title: Re: FL-Quinnipiac: Hillary in good shape, but Bush makes it close
Post by: pbrower2a on November 24, 2013, 09:53:10 am

They can lose it -- but they can't win the Presidency without it.


Title: Re: FL-Quinnipiac: Hillary in good shape, but Bush makes it close
Post by: Anonymous on November 25, 2013, 02:57:43 am
Head to head, Clinton gets 47 percent to Bush's 45 percent.

She tops other Republicans:

    45 - 41 percent over Christie;
    50 - 43 percent over Rubio;
    51 - 41 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
    50 - 42 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin;
    52 - 36 percent over Cruz.

Please run, Ted Cruz!

I could see her doing a lot better in Florida than Obama.


Title: Re: FL-Quinnipiac: Hillary in good shape, but Bush makes it close
Post by: pbrower2a on November 25, 2013, 07:24:25 am
Oldie (July) but goldie from Nate Cohn at The New Republic:

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/113833/gop-latino-problem-republicans-need-florida-hispanics

"Florida was so close [in 2012] because the GOP has already made huge gains among white voters—bigger than any other battleground state. Obama lost Florida’s whites by 24 points, 10 points worse than Kerry’s more modest, 14 point defeat in 2004."

"Early polls show Hillary Clinton crushing in Florida by a double-digit margin because she’s doing far, better among whites than Obama—about as well as Gore. Those tallies would have been a deadheat a decade ago, but now result in a comfortable Democratic win."

"The pace of demographic change in Florida should alarm Republicans. Think about it like this: Kerry lost Florida by 5 points in 2004. Then, Obama did 10 points worse among whites. All of this was countered and overwhelmed by demographic change and an improved showing among non-whites. Kerry’s performance among white voters would have yielded a 7-point win in 2012—12 points better than his 5 point defeat in 2004."

The Cuban-American vote used to be extremely R-leaning in view of the Cold War. (See also Chinese-Americans and Korean-Americans). The perception of a Communist threat has weakened among all Americans, but especially among those who had ties to Communist-dominated states.   


Title: Re: FL-Quinnipiac: Hillary in good shape, but Bush makes it close
Post by: Dereich on November 25, 2013, 07:40:22 am
I agree that Hillary would do well in Florida; she's got appeal to a lot of the groups who matter. She wouldn't beat Bush though, he's still got a lot of goodwill in the state.


Title: Re: FL-Quinnipiac: Hillary in good shape, but Bush makes it close
Post by: pbrower2a on November 25, 2013, 07:50:39 am
Ted Cruz looks as if he could lose about as badly as Barry Goldwater did in 1964. Florida was one of Goldwater's 'eighth-best' state that year, and he still lost it 51-49.

Florida is a genuine swing state now, probably slightly more R than the US as a whole, but it did decide 2000.

I have been slow to give binary challenges between Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz, but I have seen an unflattering pattern for Cruz. He seems to do worse than just about anyone. Sure he has fervent supporters, but he has turns even more people off.

I don't know how to predict how a 52-36 split would go in Florida. Even if 3/4 of the undecided went to the eventual loser (which is an extremely generous assumption on my part) one would end up with a 55-45 split of the vote. That is roughly how Ronald Reagan won the state in 1980.