Talk Elections

I saw there was no megathread for Texas so I thought some of y'all would like it.

I guess I'll start off with this:

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As badgate stated earlier, she is running for Lieutenant Governor.

Are there any other confirmed candidates for the governorship besides Wendy Davis and whoever the current Lieutenant Governor is?

The AG is the one who's planning to run for Governor. Anyway, the other announced gubernatorial candidates are, for the Reps, Tom Pauken (former TXGOP Chairman), Lisa Frisch (wikipedia lists here as an "activist," whether that means she's a Tea Partier I don't know), Larry Kilgore (a hardcore secessionist), and Miriam Martinez (a former TV personality who calls herself the "Hispanic Margaret Thatcher"). For the Dems, Wikipedia lists Ray Madrigal.

(I) = Incumbent
* Van de Putte has not officially announced or filed but is widely assumed to be running.
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[/quote]

Interesting. I wish Julian Castro were running, though.

Well, republicans are looking at another sweep in statewide offices. The interesting things should be the demographics, factors, and style of the races. Texas only has one competitive house district (TX-23) to watch. Possible movements in the state legislature should also be tracked here.

Lieutenant Governors race is probably going to be most interesting: Last poll I saw, Dewhurst had a decent lead over Peterson or Patrick, but he only had 26%, which makes it difficult to imagine that being good news for him.

Yeah, there's definitely going to be a runoff there. Should be fun.

As someone from Texas, do you think Dewhurst could survive a run-off against any of these candidates? I think he's toast. I can't imagine him coming back from the immense failure of his Senate campaign.

I have doubts about his survival. Working in his favor is the fact that the primary is earlier than it was in 2012; in 2012 it was in May. While the primary has already gotten heated between the four in their many debates (seriously- they are having so many [inks]ing debates, town halls, etc), nobody's broken through yet. Also in his favor is his incumbent advantage and money. He just bought another ad buy today I think.

Dewhurst's failures in the first special session will be an issue too, one we're already hearing in attacks from Sen Dan Patrick. That's bigger than his failed Senate run, imo, since this speaks to his handling of the job he currently holds and is asking the primary electorate to let him keep. The bill eventually passed, but Gov Perry had to step in and call another session.

Between now and March the primary voters will have to decide which of his challengers is their guy. If that doesn't happen, but a runoff is still triggered, he could appeal to the voters that weren't supporting his runoff challenger.

Van de Putte to announce within 15 minutes in SA

For those interested, here is a 1 1/2 min video with clips of her announcement: http://youtu.be/Qu1cGgLUqO0 I think any Texan that hears her speak, no matter their politics, is going to be impressed with her personality.

And here's a longer video of her speaking to Battleground Texas volunteers later in the day: http://youtu.be/KJfOxukWQN4. Skip to 1:30 for her remarks.

The Young Conservatives of Texas Straw Poll results are out. Link to the results and analysis: http://yct.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/YCT-Poll-Results-Analysis.pdf

WINNERS (EXCLUDING NO PREFERENCE):
U.S. Senate – John Cornyn
Governor – Greg Abbott
Lt. Governor – Jerry Patterson
Attorney General – Ken Paxton
Comptroller – Glenn Hegar
Ag. Commissioner – Eric Opiela
Land Commissioner – George P. Bush
Railroad Commissioner – Wayne Christian

The only difference between this and limiting it to only votes within Texas is that Sid Miller wins Ag Commissioner. What's amazing is how vulnerable this makes Cornyn look. I'm going to forever wish that Liz Cheney had chosen to challenge Cornyn instead of Enzi.

Some highlights from Texas Tribune's Inside Intelligence report (http://s3.amazonaws.com/static.texastribune.org/media/documents/i2-20131125.pdf) (PDF), which allows various "political insiders" in Austin to comment on the state of the parties and the 2014 elections candidly and anonymously. They're very worried about the lieutenant governor's race, which could end up garnering more attention than the top of the ticket.

I wonder if I can vote in the GOP primary. I should find out.

If you're registered to vote in Texas, you can vote in the GOP primary. Even if you're a Democratic troll who works for Wendy Davis. ;)

I work for World Market!!

And I wasn't thinking about it bc of Davis, I was thinking about the Lite Guv primary. BTW I became a Volunteer Deputy Voter Registrar today 8)

You guys also forgot about the judicial statewide offices in 2014:

Texas Supreme Court-Chief Justice:
Nathan Hecht (R-incumbent)
Tom Oxford (Lib)

Texas Supreme Court-Place 6:
Jeff Brown (R-incumbent)

Texas Supreme Court-Place 7:
Jeffery Boyd (R-incumbent)

Texas Supreme Court-Place 8:
Phil Johnson (R-incumbent)
RS Roberto Koelsch (Lib)

TX Court of Criminal Appeals-Place 3:
Bert Richardson (R)
Barbara Walther (R)

TX Court of Criminal Appeals-Place 4:
Kevin Patrick Yeary (R)
Jani Jo Wood (R)

TX Court of Criminal Appeals-Place 9:
David Newell (R)
W.C. "Bud" Kirkendall (R)

*NO Democrats running for these judicial statewide offices.

lol

Something you guys missed...
http://www.statesman.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/rick-perry-offers-john-cornyn-a-ringing-endorsment/nbs83/ (http://www.statesman.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/rick-perry-offers-john-cornyn-a-ringing-endorsment/nbs83/)

Gov. Perry endorses Senator Cornyn...

I think he's trying to poke Ted Cruz in the eye in the subtlest way possible. He made a few jokes about him during the shutdown, campaigned for his opponent during the Senate primary, and if they are both on a debate stage together in Iowa in 2016 things will get very interesting.

Filing ends Monday. Here are the legislative seats (http://www.burntorangereport.com/diary/14469/bor-elections-a-last-call-for-new-candidates-for-2014-general-election) that Democrats haven't yet recruited candidates in:

Tom Pauken is quitting the Texas governor's race. (http://www.texastribune.org/2013/12/05/tom-pauken-withdraws-gop-gubernatorial-primary/) Let the Republican coronation begin.

The GOP LiteGuv primary will be the most interesting race in Texas of 2014, including both primaries and the general election.

Here is a run down of recent TX political stories.


Texas Tribune

Democrat David Alameel Will Run for Cornyn's Senate Seat
http://www.texastribune.org/2013/11/29/democrat-david-alameel-will-run-cornyns-senate-sea/
Alameel came in 4th in the Dem primary for one of Texas' new minority-majority districts, which is currently held by Rep Mark Veasey.

Governor's Race Draws Spotlight on Red Light Cameras
http://www.texastribune.org/2013/12/05/governors-race-draws-spotlight-red-light-cameras/

Davis Expresses Concerns on Energy Market Proposal
http://www.texastribune.org/2013/12/05/wendy-davis-skeptical-need-energy-market-change/

Most Statewide Candidates Won't Release Tax Returns (including a run-down and links to all info)
http://www.texastribune.org/2013/12/05/most-statewide-candidates-wont-release-tax-returns/

Polling Center: Obama Weighs Heavily on Texas Democrats
http://www.texastribune.org/2013/12/05/polling-center-obama-weighs-heavily-texas-democrat/

This doesn't pertain to 2014 directly, but

Dallas Morning News

Ted Cruz at ALEC Summit: End Direct Vote for Senators
http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2013/12/ted-cruz-at-alec-summit-end-direct-vote-for-senators.html/


Also from the DMN

Study: Refusal to Expand Medicaid is Costing Texas Billions
http://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/headlines/20131204-study-refusal-to-expand-medicaid-is-costing-texas-billions.ece
The facts continue to be on the Democrats' side with this issue, despite local politics.

Greg Abbott, Wendy Davis clash over public education
http://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/headlines/20131203-greg-abbott-wendy-davis-clash-over-public-education.ece

Fort Worth Business Press

District 10 Race Drawing A Crowd
http://fwbusinesspress.com/fwbp/article/1/3232/Breaking-News/District-10-race-drawing-a-crowd.aspx
The only true swing senate seat.

More of Davis' attack on Abbott when he started talking about education:

DMN
Wendy Davis: Greg Abbott is no teacher's pet.
http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2013/12/wendy-davis-greg-abbott-is-no-teachers-pet.html/

Wendy Davis allies challenge Greg Abbott claim his oath of office made him defend $5 billion cut to Texas schools
http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2013/12/wendy-davis-allies-challenge-greg-abbott-claim-his-oath-of-office-made-him-defend-5-billion-cut-to-texas-schools.html/

lol. Didn't know he was such a Dewhurst fan. This has to be red meat more than actual conviction, because the cognitive dissonance is remarkable.

This is actually a pretty popular idea on some of the fringes of the right.

Mike Lee also supports it. It seems to be a specific "fringest of the Tea Partiers" thing.

Right, and at least in Cruz's case, he would never have been named Senator by the state legislature. Especially when Good-Ol-Boy-approved Dewhurst was salivating so openly after it.

Besides the basic political gain of repealing that amendment (the GOP could pick up quite a few Senate seats), I don't see why so many grassroots populist Tea Party activists support it. I would assume they would call any Democratic attempt to repeal the same amendment a "powergrab" by "the elites."

Dallas Morning News - Ag Commissioner Hopeful Sid Miller Accused of Mishandling Horses
http://www.dallasnews.com/news/local-news/20131205-agriculture-commissioner-hopeful-sid-miller-accused-of-mishandling-horses.ece




Save a horse, vote for Kinky ;)


Also, a Tea Party plant (not really, but maybe?) has entered the Democratic primary for US Senate: http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2013/12/anti-obama-democrat-kesha-rogers-files-for-u-s-senate.html/

The same people usually heavily support partisan elections for state and local judges, on the grounds that it allows the voters to "hold activist judges accountable." This despite the fact that the judiciary was never intended to be a "popular" institution of government the way the executive and legislative branches were.

Court of Criminal Appeals Justice Lawrence Miller has switched parties. The Democrats now have their first statewide official in the state since 1998.

Do you have a link? Googled his name and nothing came up about this.

http://www.burntorangereport.com/diary/14488/breaking-judge-lawrence-meyers-of-the-statewide-court-of-criminal-appeals-joins-democratic-party

Burnt Orange Report post + the TX Dem Party's official statement.

Something seems odd about this. What would have stopped him from simply running as a Republican in the special election? Running as a Democrat in Texas is already an uphill battle, but doing so in a far down-ballot race where most people aren't going to bother "crossing over" like they might for governor or Senator makes no sense.

Dewhurst still shell-shocked at losing the 2012 US Senate race to Cruz and he's never gotten over it either.

The 2013 legislative session was bad enough for him due to the Davis filibuster.

4 out of 4 Republican lieutenant governor candidates want creationism taught in public schools. (http://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/state-politics/20131212-gop-lieutenant-governor-hopefuls-back-creationism.ece)

Shameful.

And of course...

In other words, what should be done? Absolutely nothing.

So, the candidate filing deadline is officially over. (was 9 days ago, but whatever). Here's what I got. For the Repubs:

Governor

1. Greg Abbott
2. Larry (SECEDE) Kilgore
3. Miriam Martinez
4. Lisa Fritsch

Lt. Governor

1. David Dewhurst (I)
2. Dan Patrick
3. Jerry Patterson
4. Todd Staples

Attorney General

1. Barry Smitherman
2. Dan Branch
3. Ken Paxton

Comptroller of Public Accounts (down ballot)

1. Glenn Hegar
2. Harvey Hilderbran
3. Debra Medina
4. Raul Torres

Land Commissioner

1. George P. Bush
2. David Watts

Agriculture Commissioner

1. J. Allen Carnes
2. Tommy Merritt
3. Eric Opiela
4. Sid Miller
5. Joe Cotton

Railroad Commissioner

1. Becky Berger
2. Malachi Boyuls
3. Wayne Christian
4. Ryan Sitton

Now the democrats, this list is shorter.

Governor

1. Wendy Davis
2. Ray Madrigal

Lt. Governor

1. Leticia Van de Putte

Attorney General

1. Sam Houston

Comptroller of Public Accounts

1. Mike Collier

Land Commissioner

1. John Cook

Agriculture Commissioner

1. Richard Friedman
2. Jim Hogan
3. Hugh Asa Fitzsimons

Railroad Commissioner

1. Steve Brown
2. Dale Henry

Do I have this right? I want to make sure because I just made a spreadsheet out of this and plan on following these races closely.

TX Dems need to pick which of the non-Kinky candidates we want for Ag Commis, or else the vote could split and stick us with Kinky

I don't know who Ray Madrigal is or what his deal is. My only guess is that he's a South Texas Eddie Lucio-style Democrat who is vehemently anti-abortion and is opposing Davis for that reason.

I am torn between voting in the D or the R primary. On the one hand I will gladly vote against Davis in her primary, and vote for Kinky Friedman, on the other I still want to vote in the GOP Senate primary. Hmmm, decisions decisions.... 

On Meyers joining the Dems:

I was pretty shocked he did this at the last minute, but this is pure Charlie Crist-esque considering that Meyers is running for the TX Supreme Court in 2014, a race he'll lose for sure and I don't see him seeking reelection to his current gig in the Court of Criminal Appeals when his current term ends in 2016.

Republicans have begun striking Wendy Davis on a lawsuit she filed against the Ft. Worth Star Telegram after a failed city council run in 1994 (or '96).


In the rare Houston Chronicle and San Antonio Express News pieces that can be read by non-paying subscribers,

Republicans say Wendy Davis libel suit says much about her (http://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Republicans-say-Wendy-Davis-libel-suit-says-much-5098715.php?t=78ab029810d95dc057#/0)


Davis's response when asked about this last fall, from the Houston Chronicle (http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Blogger-says-Davis-claimed-suit-harmed-her-mental-5100654.php?t=52a8db89285eb86e8f) piece:


From Houston Chronicle, about the suit itself:



Other Reads
Texas Tribune: Texas Democrats, a Habit of Losing Big Elections (http://www.texastribune.org/2013/12/30/texas-democrats-habit-losing-big-elections/)
Texas Tribune: Highways are Talking Point as Candidates Take to Road (http://www.texastribune.org/2013/12/30/highways-are-talking-point-candidates-take-road/)
Dallas Morning News: Wendy Davis Calls on Payday Lender to Leave State Post (http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2013/12/wendy-davis-calls-on-payday-lender-to-leave-state-post.html/)



That last gem was buried three pages into their website, next to this HILARIOUS headline:
"Poll: George W. Bush, Ted Cruz Among Men Most Admired by Americans
http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2013/12/poll-george-w-bush-ted-cruz-among-men-most-admired-by-americans.html/

Dallas newspaper on the good things and bad things for Leticia Van de Putte's name (http://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/headlines/20131226-the-name-game-van-de-puttes-surname-creates-challenges-in-her-race-for-texas-no.-2-job.ece)

Basically saying that she needs to present herself as a hispanic in South Texas and hispanic majority/plurality areas, while not bringing her race up in white areas.

Surprised she didn't just keep her maiden name, or at least use it when she got into politics. The Hispanic surname effect is strong enough in the "brown" parts of Texas that State Rep. Trey Fischer styles himself as State Rep. Trey Martinez Fischer (his mother is a Latina).

That "professor" is out of her mind.

What did you expect? Davis's skeletons are coming out and Abbott & Co., are going to have a field day

Davis has been hitting Abbott hard on Pay Day Lenders, and she seems to have some great material to back her attack up. Hopefully her campaign can avoid any more stupid mistakes like the one they made calculating donations from the TEC website. Here is a timeline of the issue so far:

Dec 30 Dallas Morning News Wendy Davis calls on Payday Lender to leave State Post
http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2013/12/wendy-davis-calls-on-payday-lender-to-leave-state-post.html/
Davis calls on White to resign his state post after he revealed in an El Paso Times interview that he also works for a large Payday Lender, basically saying he has a huge conflict of interest.

Jan 2 Dallas Morning News Greg Abbott Goes to Bat for Campaign Contributor Targeted by Wendy Davis
http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2014/01/greg-abbott-goes-to-bat-for-campaign-contributor-targeted-by-wendy-davis.html/
Greg Abbott defends White, draws attention to the fact that White is a contributor of his (which Davis had yet to bring up), and feebly tries to criticize Davis for voting to confirm White.

Jan 3 San Antonio Express News Davis Campaign Launches Payday Attack on Abbott with Fuzzy Math
http://blog.chron.com/texaspolitics/2014/01/davis-campaign-launches-payday-attack-on-abbott-with-fuzzy-math/?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed
SA Express writes story highlighting the small mistake the Davis camp made on the TEC website.

Jan 4 El Paso Times Texas Sen. Wendy Davis: Greg Abbott took nearly $191K from payday lenders
http://www.elpasotimes.com/news/ci_24843872/wendy-davis-story
Davis highlights the tons of cash Abbott has taken from the Payday Lending industry. This article also included the originally higher number (miscalculated due to a glitchy government website), but the El Paso Times fixed the numbers without a big to-do.

Jan 6 San Antonio Express News Davis Campaign has "oops" Moment on Payday Lending
http://www.expressnews.com/news/news_columnists/peggy_fikac/article/Davis-campaign-has-oops-moment-on-payday-lending-5116045.php
SA Express wasn't sure if you knew about the small mistake, so they wrote another article about it.

Jan 6 Dallas Morning News Wendy Davis: GOP rival Greg Abbott helped payday loan industry collect high fees from borrowers
http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2014/01/wendy-davis-gop-rival-greg-abbott-helped-payday-loan-industry-collect-high-fees-from-borrowers.html/

Jan 7 El Paso Times Sen. Wendy Davis: Attorney General Greg Abbott at fault for payday-lending uptick
http://www.elpasotimes.com/news/ci_24856669/sen-wendy-davis-says-attorney-general-greg-abbott
Davis is now highlighting a 2006 letter by Attorney General Abbott where he gave lenders the green light to gouge consumers.

Davis has also (today, Jan 7) released a letter to Gov. Perry calling on him to remove White.
http://www.senate.state.tx.us/75r/senate/members/dist10/pr14/p20140107a.pdf


All in all I think this is playing out well for Davis; the website mistake is embarrassing but won't matter to 99% of people. Davis is developing a strong and multi-faceted line of attack on this issue, an issue Abbott has avoided talking about for weeks now. He obviously isn't sure what to say to toe the line between not being a greedy plutocrat and not pissing off the people that gave him his $19 million war chest.


Stay tuned this or next week for fundraising numbers. I believe the last day to report is Jan 15.

Fort Worth Star Telegram sheds some much needed light in the craziness going on in one State Board of Education race.

State Board of Education forum turns into Monday night mayhem
Posted Tuesday, Jan. 07, 2014

Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/2014/01/07/5468007/state-board-of-education-forum.html?storylink=addthis#.Usy-8vXm-is.twitter&rh=1#storylink=cpy

Texas Tribune -- Davis Discusses Plan to Increase Supply of Teachers

http://www.texastribune.org/2014/01/09/davis-vows-increase-supply-teachers/

Also talks about raising salaries; first education reform of many her campaign will roll out in the coming weeks.

Texas Tribune -- Dewhurst Rolls Out Education Interim Charges

http://www.texastribune.org/2014/01/09/dewhurst-rolls-out-education-interim-charges/




The Lite Guv race needs a new poll

Dewhurst will survive somehow in the runoff (if the 2nd place finisher is Patterson or Patrick) and last checked, Dewhurst is still leading by double digits, though not at the 50 percent mark.

Great Texas Trib article pinpointing races across the state to watch:

Texas Tribune Just A Few Races Will Tell You How the Wind Blows
http://www.texastribune.org/2014/01/13/just-few-races-will-tell-you-how-wind-blows/

Texas Tribune The Brief: Davis, Abbott could both be $10M candidates
http://www.texastribune.org/2014/01/13/brief/
(Davis expected to announce over $10M haul)

Texas Tribune Health Enrollments Surge in TX
http://www.texastribune.org/2014/01/13/health-enrollments-surge-rate-uninsured-remains-hi/

Dallas Morning News Wendy Davis endorses David Alameel for U.S. Senate
http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2014/01/wendy-davis-endorses-david-alameel-for-u-s-senate.html/
Worth posting here because it will effect the overall Dem ticket.

Talking Points memo Stockman Can't even beat Cornin in Tea Party Straw Poll
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/steve-stockman-can-t-even-beat-sen-cornyn-in-tea-party-straw-poll?utm_content=bufferff51d&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Dan Patrick, the Houston state Sen. challenging Lt. Gov Dewhurst, has been endorsed by Mike Huckabee
http://www.danpatrick.org/dans-endorsements/

Per Gromer Jeffers, a political reporter for DMN, Patrick has won the Denton GOP straw poll:


Here's Jeffer's piece: DMN Texas Lt. Gov Hopefuls Say They've Got The Magic To Win
http://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/headlines/20140113-texas-lieutenant-governor-hopefuls-say-theyve-got-the-magic-to-win.ece


Ft Worth Star Telegram Greg Abbott meets with local educators
http://www.star-telegram.com/2014/01/13/5482589/greg-abbott-meets-with-local-educators.html?rh=1

He recited his chorus and two verses on "local control" and picked up the endorsement of the Ft. Worth Mayor.

Wendy Davis raised $12 Million (https://twitter.com/AP_Ken_Thomas/status/423240090576752641) this quarter. Abbot raised $11.5 Million. (https://twitter.com/byjayroot/status/423244892421103616)

Wish that money was going to a Democrat who actually had a chance of winning.

(Sorry Wendy Davis fans)

Basically this. Though I suppose a lot of the donors are giving simply because it's Wendy Davis, and would otherwise not give.

At this point in 2010 cycle, Bill White had raised about $6M.

Abbott now has about $27M cash on hand, an outrageous amount, and in other news, I keep forgetting that his name has two Ts.

Davis is touting that she has a donation from every county in Texas. Which probably includes the one Democrat who lives in King County.

Abbott still has the overall advantage in $$$. Expect the Abbott campaign to hit Davis very hard in TV negative ads

Here's Lt. Gov. candidate Dan Patrick's insulting statement on Houston Mayor and likely-2018 state-wide candidate Annise Parker's marriage in California:

Patrick does have a point

???

No he doesn't.

Yes. A very small, insecure point.

Actually Patrick is right, a city government can not unilaterally decide to ignore a constitutional amendment, no matter how offensive the amendment is.

The Dallas Morning News takes a hard look at Davis' personal story and includes quotes from Davis, her ex-husband Jeff Davis, and an anonymous close friend/colleauge

Dallas Morning News - As Wendy Davis Touts Life Story in Race for Governor, Key Facts Blurred
http://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/headlines/20140118-as-wendy-davis-touts-life-story-in-race-for-governor-key-facts-blurred.ece

Ah yes, the ex-husband receiving the mobile residence while the ex-wife receives the family's conveyances, both those with wheels and those that sit on cinder blocks in the driveway. A true white trash Texas divorce settlement.

Maybe the lesson to be learned from both Davis' and Abbott's stories is that luck played a role in both of their success stories just as it does in everyone else's. Would Wendy Davis have made it to Harvard had she not fallen in love with a lawyer of means? Would Greg Abbott have gone onto a distinguished political career had the tree that fell on his spine been in the yard of, say, a teen mom living in a trailer without two nickels to rub together rather than a River Oaks mansion whose owners could be coaxed into giving him a settlement that has guaranteed him hundreds of thousands of dollars in annual income for the rest of his life?

What Mayor Parker actually did was have the city offer "health and life insurance benefits to all spouses of legally married employees including same sex couples." I don't think that'll get overturned in court.



quote from: http://freedomoutpost.com/2013/11/houstons-lesbian-mayor-annise-parker-illegally-authorizes-sex-marriage-benefits/

The Daily Texan has another piece on the Davis campaign's blurring of specifics


The Daily Texan - Davis Education Policy is Short on Specifics, Just Like Her Campaign
http://www.dailytexanonline.com/opinion/2014/01/15/davis-education-policy-is-short-on-specifics-just-like-her-campaign


Key section:

Some of the big money donations indicating which corner Rich Texans are in this year...

Wendy Davis: 1 (http://www.texastribune.org/2014/01/15/davis-gets-whopping-1-million-donation/) 2 (http://www.texastribune.org/library/data/campaign-finance/filer/00062095-wendy-r-davis/)

• Carolyn Oliver, emergency room doctor and healthcare advocate - $1,000,000
• Steve Mostyn, plaintiff's lawyer - $445,250
• Bobby Patton, owner of Los Angeles Dodgers - $250,000
• Sid Bass, oil and gas investor - $200,000
• Charles Butt, heir to the HEB supermarkets chain - $94,273
• Lee Fikes, CEO of Bonanza Oil - $80,000
• Jim Finley, CEO of Finley Resources (oil & gas) - $69,220

Greg Abbott: 1 (http://www.texastribune.org/2014/01/16/abbott-gets-25-six-figure-donations/) 2 (http://www.texastribune.org/library/data/campaign-finance/filer/00051153-texans-for-greg-abbott/)

• Doylene Perry, widow of real estate magnate Bob Perry - $250,000
• Kelcy Warren, CEO of Energy Transfer Partners - $200,000
• Marcus Hiles, CEO of Western Rim (real estate development) - $200,000
• Kenny Trout, Excel Communications founder - $200,000
• Ray Hunt, heir to Hunt family oil fortune - $100,000
• Tilman Fertitta, CEO of Landry's Restaurants - $100,000 *
• Nancy Kinder, wife of Kinder Morgan Energy CEO Richard Kinder (formerly of Enron fame) - $100,000
• Peter Thiel, CEO of PayPal, venture capitalist and libertarian activist - $100,000 **
• Paul Foster, CEO of Western Refining - $100,000
• Jeffrey Hildebrand, CEO of Hilcorp Energy, University of Texas regent - $100,000
• Bob McNair, owner of Houston Texans - $100,000
• Boone Pickens, CEO of BP Capital Management - $100,000

* I was surprised to see that the Fertittas are backing Abbott since they usually give their money to Democrats and were very big contributors to Bill White's 2010 campaign for governor.

** Technically a Rich Californian rather than a Rich Texan, Peter Thiel has always perplexed me. I'm not suggesting you're not allowed to be both gay and a Randian anarcho-capitalist but it seems odd that he always puts his money behind people who think he's sinful and depraved, that he should be allowed to be fired for his sexuality and that he shouldn't be able to get married.

Davis's inconsistencies are coming out for all to see: she's the Manti Teo of Texas politics

She lied about her age. BFD. Is there a middle-aged woman who has never done that?

Pubs should stay clear and let the media handle this, stick to the policy treasure trove and run up the score.

Obviously these stories all cover the same basic ground but here's the recent Davis personal story coverage. I've excluded stories that can't be viewed by non-digital subscribers.

But first, the Texas Observer on growing anti-frackism in North Texas.
Texas Observer - North Texans to Railroad Commission: "Stop the Frackquakes"
http://www.texasobserver.org/north-texans-railroad-commission-stop-frackquakes/


DMN, via AP - Davis Dismisses Issue of Discrepancies in Personal Story as Campaign Attack
http://www.dallasnews.com/news/local-news/20140120-davis-dismisses-issue-of-discrepancies-in-personal-story-as-campaign-attack.ece
POLITICO - Wendy Davis hits back at questions about her bio
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/01/wendy-davis-texas-governor-race-2014-102402.html?hp=f1
NYTimes - Accused of Blurring Facts of Stirring Life Story, Texas Lawmaker Offers chronology
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/21/us/accused-of-blurring-facts-of-stirring-life-story-texas-lawmaker-offers-chronology.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-thecaucus&_r=1
The New Republic - A Texas Newspaper Takes Aim at Wendy Davis's Cinderella Story—and Spins the Facts, Too
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/116278/wendy-davis-profile-dallas-morning-news-has-its-own-spin-facts
Texas Monthly - Paul Burka: The Troubles of Wendy Davis
http://www.texasmonthly.com/burka-blog/problems-wendy-davis#.Ut69CW9VPy4.twitter
Huffington Post - Sexist Digs At Wendy Davis Ramp Up After A Big Fundraising Report
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/21/wendy-davis-sexism_n_4638465.html
Davis' open letter, released today on her campaign page and sent to all of her e-mail subscribers
http://www.wendydavistexas.com/landing/e140121/


Also on the Gov race:
Texas Tribune - School Finance Trial Reopens, with Political Backdrop
http://www.texastribune.org/2014/01/21/school-finance-trial-reopens-political-backdrop/

Got this today, at least she's trying to fight back.

Dear Catherine,

 As our campaign has gained momentum, our opponents have gotten more and more desperate. But now they’ve stooped to a new low by attacking my family, my education, and my personal story – playing politics with the journey that has been my life.

 Mine is a story about a teenage single mother who struggled to keep her young family afloat. It’s a story about a young woman who was given a precious opportunity to work her way up in the world. It’s a story about resiliency, and sacrifice, and perseverance.

 And you’re damn right it’s a true story.

 Throughout this campaign, I’ve shared that story – not because it’s unique, but because it isn’t.

 The story of my life is also the story of millions of single mothers who feel alone in the world, millions of young dreamers searching for their chance to become something more than what they were born into, millions of families all across Texas who would sacrifice everything to give their children a better future.

 It’s those stories – your stories – that drive my campaign. But Greg Abbott and his allies don’t want to hear them. They don’t have anything to offer Texans who find themselves in the same difficult situation I was in when I was young. They would slam the doors I walked through and pull up the ladders I was lucky to be able to climb.

 And now, instead of offering real ideas to improve your life, they’re attacking mine.

 It won’t work. The only thing Greg Abbott and his allies have proved with these desperate attacks is that they don’t understand what it means to live a life like mine – a life like that of so many people all across our state.

 They don’t know me – and, what’s more important, they don’t know you.

 I’m not surprised that the Abbott campaign would resort to attacking the story of a single mother who worked hard to get ahead.

 And I’m not afraid of their false attacks – I developed thick skin long before anyone knew my name.

 What I am is deeply proud of the life I’ve built and the daughters I’ve raised – and deeply grateful to the many, many people who have shared their stories and offered their support as I’ve traveled our state.

 No false attack can take away my story. And no sleazy political trick will stop me from giving voice to yours.

 Your stories are why I’m running for Governor. And together, I know we’ll make sure that the Texas we leave to our children is a place where every young mother can build a better life for her child. . . where every family can work their way up the economic ladder. . . where every Texan can achieve their dreams and live out their own success story.
 
Together, we’ll break through these attacks, win this election, and make Texas even greater.

 Wendy

Texas Tribune - Citing Quakes, Brown Calls for Disposal Well Shutdown
http://www.texastribune.org/2014/01/21/citing-quakes-brown-calls-disposal-well-shutdown/

Davis trying to blame Abbott for these stories on her life coming out, but its not going to work. Abbott will destroy her so bad, nobody will ever look to her on seeking political office again

There is no difference between a few wrong details in Davis' bio then when Rubio said he and his family feld Castro Cuba.

Yawn. Every politician spins their back-story to make it seem like they come from a hardscrabble background and worked their way up from nothing through hard work, determination, etc. The controversy over the "discrepancies" in Davis's background completely perplexes me. We're talking about some pretty minor details that don't change the overall picture of her life and career.   

Hannity to attend State of the Union with Gohmert, is open to running for office in Texas (http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2014/01/sean-hannity-to-attend-state-of-the-union-as-rep-gohmerts-guest-may-run-for-office-in-texas.html/) should he decide to relocate in the wake of the Cuomo freakout.


Hopefully he realizes (as we all do, obviously) that Florida's a better fit. :P

Let's not have Sean Hannity in Florida

Florida's still a swing state though

So Wendy Davis, as a young woman facing certain ceilings in how high she could climb professionally, fell in love with an older, wealthier man who proceeded to finance her law school education and facilitate her climb in politics.

Isn't that basically what Margaret Thatcher did?

Davis reminds me of the girl from the show, The Haves and Have Not's: pimping herself out for a sugar daddy with money.

If I were the Abbott campaign, I'd get her ex husband to be in our TV ads: exposing Davis as a fake.

And people wonder why we only have three women here.

Holy sexism Batman!

Neither, just making a point.

Given all of the effort they are putting into smearing her this far out, she must scare the sh**t out of them.

James O'keefe lol

Can somebody explain to me why Republicans are so bent on tearing down Davis if she doesn't have a chance at winning? It seems like overkill in such situation where the state's partisan leanings make it very difficult for Davis to win, even narrowly.

And anything that James O'Keefe is involved in is a lie, because he fakes things.

James O'Keefe trololololololololol

Here's the big video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yZpr5JJGmI

Real ominous. It doesn't even show any of Davis' staffers saying a word about anything, it's all outside people and what they are saying isn't even worth getting upset about.

Citing a James O'Keefe video.

LOL

I'll just assume this is true.

Wendy Davis staffers make mean remarks = WOW SHE'S SO HORRIBLE, COMPLETELY UNFIT TO BE GOVERNOR

Chris Christie staffers order traffic jams against innocent citizens for political retribution = WOW HE'S SUCH AN INNOCENT VICTIM, HOW CAN YOU BLAME HIM FOR HIS STAFF'S ACTIONS?!?!?

Look for negative advertising, calling Davis a gold digger

As I said, there's criticism, and there's the point where you're being blatantly sexist. You're way past that point.

Lone Star Project has already hit back in the social media war with a recording of a GOP operative here in Texas talking about the race.

http://youtu.be/P-YRlswqrtA

The main thesis:

What are her attackers trying to say? That once you marry a rich person, you are like a serf bound to them for life and have no right to end the marriage? Clearly it's impossible for one to have an unhappy marriage to a wealthy spouse. After all, rich people are inherently unimpeachable super-humans and Wendy Davis should have been grateful for the privilege of being married to such a person. If she's anything less than ecstatically happy, she's clearly a gold-digger.

This is all Wendy Davis' fault. If she had just stayed in the kitchen making sandwiches and learned her place, none of these problems would ever have happened.


Greg Abbott has shown he's perfectly willing to breach the bounds of gentlemanly conduct and figuratively "hit a woman." I don't see why Wendy Davis shouldn't be allowed to figuratively "hit a cripple" if that's the kind of race he wants to run.

I don't necessarily have a problem with her story herself - personal lives should mostly stay out of politics. It's that she withheld the truth from the voters and tried to completely cast herself as the victim instead of owning up to her mistakes.

What specifically are you referring to when you say she "withheld the truth"?

What mistakes? Marrying someone you later wish you didn't? You know how many Americans feel the same way?

^I assumed he meant the bio discrepancies there. Tmthforu is pretty much always a respectful poster so I doubt he was inferring something like not giving her ex-husband a shout out in every stump speech as a "mistake"

The point is that Abbott has won 5 statewide elections while Davis' experience is light.

You are correct - I don't think it's something that people should hold against her when running for office, but I don't think it necessarily looks good when some of the "weaknesses" in her bio were conveniently left out to paint a better picture of her.

Something should be stated though about her supporters mocking Abbott for being wheelchair bound - I felt pretty disgusted watching that video. Her campaign needs to be flawless to win in November, and so far, it's anything but. "Stand with Wendy" as the campaign slogan was poorly thought out, also.

Abbott was just on Megyn Kelly's show, "The Kelly File" on Fox News

The real problems for her are the mounting wheelchair gaffes.  That is Coakley level.  You don't tell your opponent that they don't understand struggle when they have been wheelchair-bound since age 26.  Why is she trying to look like more of a victim than someone who is paralyzed?  That's disgusting!  It's the kind of thing that could make a Republican in Texas lose.

She didn't say he doesn't "understand struggle", she said "his desperate attacks" prove he doesn't understand "these Texas stories of struggle." She was clearly referring to her own struggles. Granted Abbott understands personal struggle as a general thing very well but that doesn't mean he understands every kind of struggle there is. This sounds like a deliberate twisting of her words to fit the Abbott campaign pre determined narrative of where they want the convo to go... Namely, his disability.

The O'Keefes of the world will always be able to find dumb volunteers; no matter how good your people are, volunteers are by nature undisciplined. It has nothing to do with the candidate herself.

As for the bio, who cares? Story X doesn't seem materially different from Story Y, except perhaps the 19 thing, but I don't know enough about her life to say how accurate it was.

It should be noted the slogan "Stand With Wendy" is from June, and was the Twitter slogan (aka "hashtag") surrounding her filibuster. Her gubernatorial campaign has never embraced that slogan. If we're going to parse every moment of Wendy Davis' life let's not let ourselves generalize when it suits the narrative we prefer. :)

I really do want to know if you can specifically point to something to back up your "withheld the truth" claim. Highlighting certain periods in her life is one thing, but I don't believe that in any of this bio debacle that there has been something where she legitimately "withheld the truth."

THIS. She really was a young single mother. She really did graduate from Harvard Law. Where did she withhold the truth???

I don't see anything "wrong" about her saying she was 19 when she divorced when she was 21. She separated from him when she was 19 and was 21 by the time everything was finalized by the courts. That's how most people speak of marriage - they pinpoint the separation as the "end" of their marriage when speaking informally and outside a court of law. The marriage was effectively over when they separated - that is when she was "on her own" and that is what is relevant to a personal narrative.

I didn't see Abbott being "mocked" in the video. The fact that he is paraplegic was mentioned as a potential negative to his campaign and the fact is that it is a negative - not from a character standpoint but from a simple optics/logistics standpoint. It limits photo ops; he can never be seen standing behind a podium or dais looking authoritative; his range of motion is limited, making it hard to express himself with body language in public. He will always appear smaller than whoever he is with unless they are also seated. It looks terrible to see a photograph where a supporter is bending down to shake his hand while he looks up at them. I'm sorry if that sound shallow or petty but what about political campaigns isn't shallow or petty?

And as for his accident, yes, I will go there and I see no reason it shouldn't be fair game. This is a man who is very wealthy today because he got a very big legal settlement years ago that a Texan in his position could not receive today because of tort reform and that Greg Abbott does not want other Texans to be able to receive. Franklin Roosevelt's physical handicaps and his struggles to lead a normal life helped him to empathize with the millions of Americans who were simply struggling to feed and shelter their families during his early presidency.

Greg Abbott doesn't seem to have learned from his experience at all. He was a victim of bad luck and yet he prefers, like most of his party, to believe that there is no such thing as bad luck, that we all control every aspect of our lives and that if someone is poor or unemployed or sick, it is all their fault, they must be lazy or unmotivated and they are undeserving of help.

Well, Texas this year disappoints me)) Out of myriad races - very few potentially interesting and competitive. Out of 36 for House - at most 1 (Gallego), and may be - zero. Boring!))))

Folks think Abbott will be Perry's 4th term and pick up where he left off

You and I know Wayne Slater will never be invited by liberal news networks again after he published the scoop on Davis' lies.

Yes he will...

Dem pundit Jason Stanford had a Q&A today with the DMN journalist Wayne Slater. Good read, though Slater dodges honest answers if you ask me.

http://jasonstanford.org/?p=408

What is with the victim thing? I didn't think elections were supposed to be about who is the bigger victim. I don't see any gaffes at all, her statements are about his positions on policy, which are not very down to earth when it comes to everyday people. I'm not seeing where Davis was trying to make herself a victim, but it seems as if Abbott is headed in that direction. In politics, you can't expect to not be criticized just because of a disability.

State Rep. Sarah Davis (R-Houston) has been endorsed (http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/article/Gay-rights-group-backs-Texas-Republican-5162757.php) by the LGBT group Equality Texas, making her the first Republican ever to receive the group's endorsement.



Davis is being challenged in the GOP primary for her seat by conservative activist Bonnie Parker (http://www.bonnieparkerfortexas.com/) (yes, that is her real name (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bonnie_Parker#Bonnie_Parker)) who disagrees with the incumbent's views on abortion and LGBT issues.

This "controversy" reminds me of how some Republicans acted like Elizabeth Warren not having Native-American ancestry was the worst scandal since Watergate.  Davis is going to lose, but not because of the bio stuff, which I doubt will determine anyone's vote.  She'll lose because she is a poor fit for the state and because she's facing a strong opponent in a state where the Republican has to do everything wrong and the Democrat has to do everything right in order for the latter to have a shot at winning statewide (and even then it is far from a given).

Greg Abbot spoke at a Pro-Life rally in Austin today.

Texas Tribune - Abbott: Davis Wants "Late-Term Abortion on Demand"

http://www.texastribune.org/2014/01/25/abbott-and-davis-spar-roe-anniverary/


Thank you Mr. Abbott for changing the conversation, taking a false and extreme claim, and giving Davis an opening.

The McAllen Monitor calling on the Dem Party to raise Van De Putte's profile in the election - http://www.themonitor.com/opinion/columnists/carlos_sanchez/article_684cdca2-8557-11e3-97b4-001a4bcf6878.html


POLITICO profiles George P. Bush
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/01/george-p-bush-texas-the-next-george-bush-102619.html#.UuXBBnl6iia

POLITICO also has what I think is the best piece on Davis:
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/01/wendy-davis-the-most-judged-woman-in-america-102598.html?hp=t1#.UuXCR3l6iiZ

Texas Republican Lieutenant Governor's Debate Livestreaming on YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKc6dqRZVCk#t=189)

Dewhurst vs. Patrick vs. Patterson vs. Staples


8:06 PM -- Candidates vie to determine who loves fetuses more.

8:07 PM -- Jerry Patterson tries to channel Mitt Romney, pivoting from "When you're dead, you're dead" to "We must protect life" in the same response.

8:09 PM -- Dan Patrick, if you talk about the need to secure the border and cite the millions of illegal aliens who have been apprehended, doesn't that suggest the border is already pretty secure?

8:14 PM -- Whose idea was it to have everyone answer the same question twice? Asking a politician to be "more specific" is a futile effort.

8:16 PM -- Todd Staples, it's never a good sign when the moderator forgets you're there.

8:17 PM -- Dewhurst's nose grew two inches when he called himself a "strong conservative leader."

8:24 PM -- Todd Staples: Two thirds filibuster rule worked well when my party was the minority and now that we're the majority it doesn't. (paraphrasing)

8:26 PM -- Jerry Patterson on how he's about to starve to death on his $120K/yr salary.

8:27 PM -- Patterson is the "Second Amendment" candidate and is daring his opponents to try to get to his right on that issue.

8:29 PM -- Staples: "We need to care for mothers" who we are going to force to have babies instead of an abortion. Commie...

8:30 PM -- Patterson: no abortion exception for rape or incest

8:31 PM -- Patrick: need an exception for life of mother but a good mother will die so her baby can live. Whaaaaa.....?

8:32 PM -- David Dewhurst wants to make it clear that unlike Senator Patrick he will not peer pressure a woman into unnecessarily dying in childbirth.

8:34 PM -- Moderator: Money for poor women and their babies? Patrick: "Absolutely."

8:37 PM -- Marijuana Decriminalization? Dewhurst says no. Staples says no. Patrick says no ("We're not going to go the way of Colorado.") Patterson says no, but open to medicinal use.

8:40 PM -- Dewhurst and Patrick are still bickering about the infamous 2013 abortion bill and ignoring the moderator questions.

8:41 PM -- Medical marijuana? Dewhurst says no. Staples says no. Patrick says no, complains about how dang hippies are ruining Colorado for everybody, and goes there yet again on Dewhurst and the abortion bill. Patterson says yes - "I see nothing wrong with it."

8:43 PM -- Patterson: Creationism (but probably not in science class), Intelligent Design and Evolution should all be taught in school.

8:44 PM -- Todd Staples will not apologize for being a Christian. "Our children need to be exposed to [creationism]." Randomly hits Dewhurst on having personal security detail.

8:45 PM -- Dan Patrick: children will be "confused" if they only hear about creationism in church an don't get to hear about it in school too. "Not only should it be taught...it should be heralded!"

8:46 PM -- Dewhurst: Believes in creationism but thinks kids should be taught about evolution and ID in schools also.

8:47 PM -- Patterson thinks children should learn about different religions in school. (SHARIA LAW OMG WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU?)

8:48 PM -- Staples brings up Dewhurst's loss to Cruz in 2012, compares him to Charlie Crist.

8:50 PM -- Term limits for statewide offices? Patrick says yes (2 terms). Dewhurst only wants them if legislators get them too. Staples and Patterson say yes.

8:52 PM -- Dewhurst: "I'm severely an unashamed conservative."

8:55 PM -- Patrick: "The Establishment doesn't want me elected."

Dewhurst will win the runoff over 3-term Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson (R) in the Republican primary for Lieutenant Governor, as Dewhurst is campaigning for a 4th term.

Recent polls have Dewhurst leading by double digits, but not enough in getting the 50%

Thanks for the run down, Indy. Missed the debate while I was at work but from what it sounds like, Leticia Van De Putte came away from the debate the clear winner.


Dallas Morning News - Is Greg Abbott Sponsoring a Super Bowl Pool? You Bet!
http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2014/01/is-greg-abbott-sponsoring-a-super-bowl-pool-you-bet.html/

Today was a special election in a north Austin State Legislature district. With about 77% reporting, turnout was 10.7% and Democratic candidate Celia Israel has won with 60% of the vote. The district has gone from a 62% victory for the Dem candidate in 2008 to being vaguely competitiven in 2010 (54%D/41%R/3.5%L), and Republicans didn't even field a candidate in 2012.

http://traviselectionresults.com/enr/contest/display.do?criteria.electionId=20140128&contestId=78

Besides the wild Lieutenant Governor contest, which other down-ballot statewide offices do y'all see going into a runoff ?

Davis supports open carry law. (http://www.politico.com/story/2014/02/wendy-davis-guns-open-carry-law-texas-103198.html)

Won't matter since Davis is just another overhyped, overrated sacrificial lamb just like former Houston Mayor Bill White was in 2010.

Good God, at this point she's Mitt Romney running for Senate in 1994 but with blonde hair and without the money or the wholesome family image. Always eager to please. Maybe next she'll tell us she was an independent during Clinton-Gore and is not trying to take us back to the era of Clinton-Gore.

The only people who care about open carry as a make-or-break issue are people who will never vote for her or any Democrat, and people who, quite frankly, I'm not sure the Democratic Party should even want to get the support of.

I've been consistently disappointed with this woman. I was skeptical of her from the getgo due to the way she became such a household name, and at this point the inept, amateurish campaign she's running is making me want a refund on the $50 I gave her. I'd rather have Bill White running again. Not that he would win either.

To top it off, Wayne Slater of the Dallas Morning News, published another scoop revealing that Davis used to be an active Republican until she switched parties in 2006.

In the past almost all prominent Texas Republican politicians were former Democrats. May be Democratic bench is so weak now, that Democratic leaders must be former Republicans?)))) In fact, looking at Democratic performance in Texas outside majority-minority areas, i frequently think it's really so. Davis will lose. and lose BIG, IMHO....

Pretty old news, though.

All I've heard is that she's voted in Republican primaries before and made a couple of donations to Republican candidates.

I'm not going to fault her for that considering I've voted in Republican primaries before and donated to Republican candidates. There aren't enough severely partisan Democrats in Texas, even in the Democratic Party itself, for that to be too damning.

I guess people assume because of how she became a household name she is left on every issue. The thing is, Wendy Davis' record on gun rights is very strong and supporting "open carry" is backed up by that record, making it hard to accuse her of pandering.

R: "You only support this because you're pandering for moderate voters and trying to take the issue away from me."

Davis: "In the state Senate I supported x, y, z, so no, I support this because I believe in it and I believe in the 2nd amendment."

More than the policy itself, I think this is a move to show she's not afraid to buck the national party and distance herself from the possibility of accusations of Obama puppetry.

I've been frustrated with her campaign's missteps too, Indy. But the candidate I support is still there. I could tell in the speech she gave the same night as the State of the Union. Her campaign seriously f***ed up there, because coverage of that speech really could have changed the tide on her bio issues. I've read (though the article had a paywall so I only saw the first two sentences) that the campaign has hired a new press liaison, or something, (they aren't firing anyone yet) which I hope will help. We probably won't be able to tell for a week or two, since she has been fundraising out of state this week.

She did give a Univision interview that, from what I can tell, was really good. I don't speak spanish and they lower the volume on the english voice tracks, but here you go: http://noticias.univision.com/video/386591/2014-02-02/al-punto/videos/wendy-davis-senadora-democrata-texas-candidata


This is old news, and very common for moderates especially in the panhandle and north Texas. You have the choice between voting for the Democrat that will lose later that year, or having a say in how crazy your future representative is.

Texas Democrats might as well start the Castro for Governor 2018 campaign signs right now

Bill White actually could've won. Rick Perry was dragged over the finish line by the GOP wave. The race started out really close.

On the other hand, I doubt Davis could win even in a Dem wave.

Gallup poll on Texas demographic trends.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/167339/texan-hispanics-tilt-democratic-state-likely-stay-red.aspx

What odds you're giving Texas Democrats in winning statewide offices?
A. 2018
B. 2022
C. Never

Sometime after 2030.

Good article, Nhoj.

Agree (and too lazy for detailed explanation)

Exactly. My matrix score is -4,-4 yet I am technically a registered Republican in the state

Dallas Morning News - Wendy Davis backs medical marijuana, would consider decriminalization.
http://dallasmorningviewsblog.dallasnews.com/2014/02/wendy-davis-backs-medical-marijuana-would-consider-decriminalization.html/
Dallas Morning News An Impressive Conversation With Wendy Davis
http://dallasmorningviewsblog.dallasnews.com/2014/02/an-impressive-conversation-with-wendy-davis.html/

Abbott has been under some fire for describing corruption in the Rio Grande Valley (southern Texas, Latino-rich) as "third-world." The McAllen Monitor called on him to apologize, as did Wendy Davis. Abbott responded today in the Monitor by doubling down. Seriously, can any Texan here imagine him describing corruption in the north Texas (DFW/Gainesville/Tyler) area as 'third-world?' I can't.
Run Down:
Texas Tribune Governor Candidates Sparring over "Third-World" Remark
http://www.texastribune.org/2014/02/10/latest-spar-governors-race-over-third-world-remark/
McAllen Monitor COMMENTARY BY GREG ABBOTT: Third-world comments not directed at RGV
http://www.themonitor.com/opinion/columnists/article_d6d33a72-92b3-11e3-b173-0017a43b2370.html
McAllen Monitor LETTER: Wendy Davis responds to Greg Abbott's third-world comment
http://www.themonitor.com/opinion/letters/article_e2746da2-9104-11e3-b380-0017a43b2370.html


Davis yesterday held a press conference (and invited everybody! Progress!) as Abbott was in court on the school finance lawsuit.
Video http://www.texastribune.org/2014/02/10/video-davis-speaks-about-school-finance-trial/
Article http://www.texastribune.org/2014/02/10/davis-says-abbott-should-settle-school-lawsuit/

In Non-Gubernatiorial News:

Newspaper Endorsements

San Antonio Express News
Maxey Scherr for Democratic U.S. Senate nomination
http://www.mysanantonio.com/opinion/editorials/article/Scherr-for-the-Dem-Senarte-nomination-5215173.php
Fitzsimmons, Carnes for ag commissioner nominations
http://www.mysanantonio.com/opinion/editorials/article/Fitzsimmons-Carnes-to-run-for-agriculture-5215220.php
John Cornyn for Republican U.S. Senate nomination
http://www.mysanantonio.com/opinion/editorials/article/Cornyn-for-the-GOP-nomination-5215170.php
Hecht, Brown, and Johnson for high court
http://www.mysanantonio.com/opinion/editorials/article/Hecht-Brown-and-Johnson-for-high-court-5225578.php
Novak best choice for [state] Senate seat
http://www.mysanantonio.com/opinion/editorials/article/Novak-best-choice-for-Senate-seat-5222022.php

DMN We recommend Harper-Brown in GOP race for Texas House District 105
http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/20140209-editorial-we-recommend-harper-brown-in-gop-race-for-texas-house-district-105.ece
We recommend Branch for attorney general in GOP race
http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/20140210-editorial-we-recommend-branch-for-attorney-general-in-gop-race.ece
We recommend Ratliff in Texas house district 115 GOP race
http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/20140211-editorial-we-recommend-ratliff-in-texas-house-district-115-gop-race.ece
We recommend Morgan Meyer in GOP race for Texas house district 108
http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/20140211-editorial-we-recommend-morgan-meyer-in-gop-race-for-texas-house-district-108.ece

...


DMN Record, Mug Shot from Steve Stockman's drug arrest that he now denies.
http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2014/02/record-mug-shot-from-steve-stockmans-drug-arrest-that-he-now-denies.html/

Abbott says he's standing by the comments.

Well summarized

()

()

lol I know. He looks so grungy!

So Davis now backs a 20-week abortion ban, albeit a slightly different one than the bill she became famous for. (http://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/headlines/20140211-wendy-davis-backs-20-week-abortion-ban-that-defers-to-women.ece)

Bill White actually could've won. Rick Perry was dragged over the finish line by the GOP wave. The race started out really close.

On the other hand, I doubt Davis could win even in a Dem wave.
[/quote]

First off, Bill White was NEVER going to beat Perry in 2010-ever: too much anti-Obama sentiment and backlash against the national Democrats were too much for him.

Perry still was going to win reelection by double digits and he did...by 13 points: 55% to 42% carrying 226 out of 254 counties.

In other Texas news, this NYTimes Magazine story is making waves today:

NYTimes Magazine Can Wendy Davis Have It All?
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/16/magazine/wendy-davis.html

Davis' campaign schedule has her rolling out the third plank of her education plan today:
Texas Tribune Davis Calls For Increased Access to Full-Day Pre-K
http://www.texastribune.org/2014/02/12/davis-calls-increased-access-full-day-pre-k-progra/

Texas Weekly (warning: paywall after 1st paragraph) Van De Putte Disses Comedian Kinky Friedman
http://www.texastribune.org/2014/02/12/van-de-putte-disses-comedian-kinky-friedman/

Dallas Morning News Greg Abbott sticks with status quo on marijuana
http://dallasmorningviewsblog.dallasnews.com/2014/02/greg-abbott-sticks-with-status-quo-on-marijuana.html/

Rep. Stefani Carter, once seen as a rising GOP star, could be going down in flames in the GOP primary for her old seat that she left for a failed Railroad Commissioner campaign last fall.
Dallas Morning News Accident Report shows Rep Stefani Carter at fault in accident she cited at candidate forum
http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2014/02/accident-report-shows-rep-stefani-carter-at-fault-in-accident-she-cited-at-candidate-forum.html/

The Dallas Morning News needs to FIX the Carter story.

She dropped our of the Railroad Commissioner race

That's what it was! I forgot which primary she had dropped out of.

Carter dropped out of the Republican primary for Railroad Commissioner

Wow, so she tried to file a claim against the insurance of the guy she hit, and then she tried to compare her minor fender bender to the injuries one of her opponents suffered while serving in Afghanistan. I gave her props for being the first black female Republican in the Lege, but what a piece of trash...

Retread.

Kinda obvious, but Wendy Davis backs SSM. (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/13/wendy-davis-gay-marriage_n_4783604.html?ncid=fcbklnkushpmg00000013)

Is Davis that STUPID ?

Abbott should just go ahead and write his acceptance speech now.

Will he break Bush Jr's 68% from 1998 ?

There's no avoiding that one. The Party has incorporated it into the platform, as have our candidates. Is she stupid for coming out for it? No. Would she be stupid for doing much more about it? Yes.

No, no chance of that.

>implying the TX Dems aren't running her to mobilize democrats
>implying she ever had a chance

Markedly less so than Texas itself, at least.

The only people who care weren't going to vote for her under any circumstances anyway. This isn't 2004.

The Dallas Morning News has endorsed Patterson in the Lite Guv race.
http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/20140214-editorial-we-recommend-patterson-in-gop-race-for-lieutenant-governor.ece?nclick_check=1

I saw the Dallas Morning News endorsement of Patterson.

I'm praying hard that the runoff come down to Dewhurst and Patterson, with Dewhurst winning by double digits

Let's take a moment and talk about Senate district 10. For those not in the know, district 10 is Wendy Davis' district, which she has won twice in presidential years where the Dem at the top of the ticket lost. In the Texas Senate, a two-third majority is required to allow bringing legislation up for a vote. Davis' place in the Texas Senate has given Democrats some leverage;without her occupying that seat Republicans wouldn't even need to consult their Democratic counterparts when working on legislation in the state senate. So, the race for this district is very important to the next two legislative sessions.


Ft. Worth Star Telegram has endorsed Libby Willis for the Democratic nomination.
Democrats: Willis is a fighter
http://www.star-telegram.com/2014/02/15/5570923/democrats-willis-is-a-fighter.html?storylink=addthis#.Uv-j90NcXRs.twitter&rh=1

They have also endorsed Mark Shelton, the man Davis beat in 2012, for the GOP nomination
Shelton best fit, but Pompa strong
http://www.star-telegram.com/2014/02/15/5570917/shelton-the-best-fit-but-pompa.html?storylink=addthis#.Uv-jZQUbEtc.twitter

Looks like Greg Abbott, despite being a paraplegic himself, has been making it harder (http://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/headlines/20140215-greg-abbott-pushes-to-block-disabled-texans-lawsuits-against-state.ece?nclick_check=1) for his fellow disabled Texans to get the workplace accommodations they are entitled to under the ADA.




And he does this even has he remains the beneficiary of one such suit.


This man really is shameless. I don't know how his brain can handle so much cognitive dissonance.

I've seen this mentioned before, but I think Davis/TX Dems are afraid to bring this up. For obvious and realistic reasons, if you ask me. It's something that'll have to permeate independently. edited to add: Well I clicked the link to this article, and the headline coupled with a picture of Abbott shaking hands surely does the job.

The Beaumont Enterprise has released their endorsements for the 3/4 primary:
http://www.beaumontenterprise.com/opinions/editorials/article/EDITORIAL-Enterprise-endorsements-for-March-4-5237193.php

The Tyler Morning Telegraph has published an interesting editorial endorsing the primary challenger for the state leg seat covering Tyler...
http://www.tylerpaper.com/TP-Editorials/194719/ogle-bakerreceive-our-endorsements#.UwGGj3mM6f1

In Lite Guv endorsements, Todd Staples has earned the support of Corpus Christi Caller-Times
http://www.caller.com/news/2014/feb/16/editorial-todd-staples-is-gops-best-choice-for/

Abbott does have a valid point

[Fquote author=TX Conservative Dem link=topic=182847.msg4058464#msg4058464 date=1392661267]
Abbott does have a valid point
[/quote]

Where? What? How?

Seriously, quit trolling and explain yourself.

TX Dems slam Abbott for inviting Ted Nugent to campaign with him. (http://www.politico.com/story/2014/02/greg-abbott-ted-nugent-texas-103597.html)

Badger, I'm NOT trolling you uppity agitator

A valid point about what?

Hahahah

I agree with Abbott and Nugent on this:

States' Rights now, States' Rights tomorrow and States' Rights FOREVER !

Got some good reads for y'all. :)



1. A local Tea Party leader has denounced an opposing candidate for being METHODIST.
Ft. Worth Telegram - In Grapevine, a Tea Party Leader says no to - Methodists?
http://www.star-telegram.com/2014/02/20/5587683/in-grapevine-a-tea-party-leader.html?storylink=addthis#.UwdYgTQVPFN.twitter&rh=1


2. Texas Monthly takes stock of the Davis campaign's improvements moving past the flap over her bio and subsequent issues w/ the press. This piece more than any before it shows that it's the people around the candidate who have caused the problems.
Texas Monthly - Behind The Curtain With Wendy Davis
http://www.texasmonthly.com/story/behind-curtain-wendy-davis?fullpage=1


3. Primarying U.S. Senators may be going out of vogue, but here in DFW we are seeing one of the most contentious primaries for a state senate district. Yeah.
Texas Tribune - Carona, Huffines Face Off in Contentious SD-16 Primary
https://www.texastribune.org/2014/02/21/attacks-not-issues-propel-district-16-senate-race/



4. Now that Ted Nugent has apologized for his remark about President Obama, Greg Abbott desperately wants the press to stop running stories about his ill-fated campaign stops with the rocker. We can bet that Abbott is going to sleep tonight thanking God that Nugent hasn't said anything awful about Wendy Davis.
San Antonio Express News - Nugent Apologizes, Abbott Wants to Move On
http://blog.mysanantonio.com/texas-politics/2014/02/nugent-apologizes-abbott-wants-to-move-on/



5. James O'Keefe has released a new video, this one centering on what legal experts agree is a small grey area in our state's unnecessarily complicated voter registration laws. More than drawing negative press to BGTX, this has driven attention to the possibility of Greg Abbott, as AG, investigating his political enemies, questions about wether Abbott's volunteers are doing the same thing as BGTX, and the fact that Texas law makes it complicated to register people to vote.
http://www.texastribune.org/2014/02/20/brief/
Texas Tribune The Brief: Another O'Keefe Video Drops on BGTX

That's about as trollish a way one could put it.

Thanks for the sig material though.

So... do we think that Dewhurst will win re-election?

No, I don't. Whoever wins second in the March 4 primary will win the runoff. Things could happen, though, but if the current status quo remains that's how I see it playing out.

i hope Abbott wins it all

Y'all don't think Dewhurst has a shot of securing a 4th term?

I'm pulling for him to get his 5th statewide victory overall.

Nope. The Tea Party is too strong here.

Given the recent poll, any predictions on a Cornyn vs. Rogers matchup? I'd say Cornyn 68% to 30%.

And...

1. Could Rogers pick up a significant number Tea Party supporters who like her strong Impeach Obama platform, along with anti-Cornyn backlash?

2. Will Cornyn pick up any large Democrat counties like El Paso, Dallas, Travis, or some of the Rio Grande Valley counties?

1. No.

2. He'd win Dallas County and maybe Travis if a bunch of Democrats decide to vote Green or Libertarian. (That's usually what has happened if a Republican has won Travis County in a statewide race.) El Paso and the Rio Grande counties will vote Democratic no matter who the nominee is; they are simply reflexive Democrats out of force of habit. Even Kay Bailey Hutchison, a sort-of-moderate Republican with broad crossover appeal, only barely carried Webb County in 2000 against a placeholder Democratic candidate. And when George W. Bush had his two-to-one landslide reelection in 1998, he barely made a dent in the Valley and only barely carried El Paso County after pouring a ton of money into it.

I think Alameel wins the Democratic nomination due to running TV ads.

Cornyn will kick his ass in November, here's how I think folks will vote:
Anglos will be 72-28 in Cornyn's favor.
African Americans 87-13 in Alameel's favor
Latinos 65-35 in Alameel's favor.

I've only seen a few TV ads: Dan Branch, Dan Patrick, and David Dewhurst.

Other TV ads I've seen for statewide offices include:

Cornyn-U.S. Senator
Opiela -Agriculture Commissioner
Hegar-Comptroller
Smitherman and Paxton -State Attorney General
Hecht-Chief Justice, Texas Supreme Court

I've seen Cornyn, Paxton, Branch, Patrick, Smitherman, Hegar, Dewhurst, Hilderbran, Patterson, and Alameel (lol)

Abbott's Wife Now in Political Fray (http://www.texastribune.org/2014/02/28/abbotts-wife-now-political-fray/) (Texas Tribune)





Hmmm, well Greg, if you don't want to be accused of using your Latina wife as a political prop, maybe you should stop referring to her as your Latina wife. My mother does not refer to my father as her Arab husband. My father does not refer to my mother as his WASP wife. Did you marry her in a Latina wedding? When you go on vacation together, is it Latina vacation? When she makes dinner, is it Latina dinner?

The Republicans need to decide whether or not it's okay to talk about race. When a Democrat talks about race, their response is, "We don't see color! We're all 'Muricans! Stop using divisive race-baiting!" But somehow trotting your "Latina wife" around is perfectly acceptable. Next thing you know he'll be making Cecilia Abbott do a full Carmen Miranda at campaign events...

()

I dunno about the prop thing, it sounds to me when reading it that he's referring to the setting of the campaign stop: a Tex-Mex restaurant with predictable decor for that type of food.




I laughed at "When she makes dinner, is it Latina dinner?"

I was thinking of something an LGBT friend posted on Facebook once that was like, "Stop calling it gay marriage. I just want to get married. I didn't have gay breakfast this morning. When I park my car, I don't gay park it."

Abbott has a right to be pissed.

9 State House incumbents (7 Republicans, 2 Democrats) and 1 State Senate incumbent (1 Republican) were defeated in their primaries.



Also, that UT/TT poll was pretty garbage, as someone on DKE pointed out.

Rogers by 8? Losing by 26.
Dewhurst by 7? Losing by 13.
Medina by 13? Third place, losing by 30.
Branch by 4? Losing by 11.

Last night was a win for the anti-toll road candidates, and it is always heartwarming to see Dewhurst go down in in flames. It still sucks though to see nearly every candidate I vote for lose.

I'm not crazy about toll roads but the solution isn't to elect anti-toll road candidates who have no interest in more Transportation dept. spending.

Abbott had 1 million votes in the GOP primary, while Davis had 400,000 votes in the Democratic primary: HORRIBLE numbers for a Democratic nominee.

Considering that 20% of those who showed up voted for some guy who did not even run a strong campaign............ so............

So we have a website with info on Jim Hogan, who got first in the Dem Ag Commis race.

http://whoisjimhogan.tumblr.com

Seems like a stand up guy. #hoganfacts


Just admit it, you were going to Google Jim Hogan anyways. #hoganfacts
Jim Hogan also has some milk goats and some horses. #hoganfacts


Great site.

Yeah WTF with that. Our turnout problem imo was two-pronged: the voter ID law probably did deter people from coming out, and the contested races in our primary, nobody knew about. The state party didn't do much about the Ag or Senate primaries bc they thought it would work itself out (I don't know this for sure, that's just my guess based on the actions they took during primary season). So most people think "Well, I love Wendy, but she's unopposed and so is Leticia...I don't need to vote today".

Meanwhile every race on a Republican primary voter's ballot was contested. And every one of them was making headlines the last two months. So of course we're going to see a lot more people coming out in that primary.

As for turnout I am personally proud that in the county I live and have been volunteering in, Dem primary turnout was up 70+% from 2012.

Alarming news for the TX Democrats is that Davis lost several South Texas counties due to her Pro-Choice stance on the abortion controversy.

Yeah, I don't understand why Texas Democrats thought that running a candidate who is most famous for her filibuster against abortion regulation is the best way to win in a red state.

They had zero chance either way, and it'll be like this for a while at least. Might as well go with someone who actually has some serious name recognition for a change.

No.

Then maybe you should try to back up your assertions instead of claiming them as facts.

Texas Conservative Dem, when will you switch party?

When are the runoffs?

May 27

The big question is whether Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson (R) and Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples (R) will endorse Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst (R) in the runoff for LG.

On State Attorney General: I'm hoping Branch wins due to being endorsed by several law enforcement agencies.

In the Ag Commissioner race, the candidate with the Farm Bureau and every other agriculture interest group endorsement came in last place. Endorsements from non-ideological groups mean nothing in the modern GOP.

Davis would be Texas' first hot Governor, so....

But seriously, I think her loosing 20% of the vote to some random Mexican dude who never ran a campaign is an omen.

Abbott currently leads 53-41. Perry won re-election in 2010 with 55% of the vote, down from 58% in 2002, and then a wacky 4-way race in 2006 where Perry didn't even manage 40% but still finished first,  so it seems maybe within the next few decades Democrats might someday be competitive in Texas again. I'll still never live there though.

Here is a Texas Tribune post mortem on their own poll: http://www.texastribune.org/2014/03/06/polling-center-poll-findings-vs-election-results/

Harvey Hilderbran has dropped out of the Comptroller race making Glenn Hegar, who sponsored the women's health bill in the Senate, the nominee.

Supposedly there has been a lot of pressure on the second-place finishers (Hilderbran for Comptroller, Dewhurst for LiteGuv, Branch for AG) to drop out since in all of these cases the first-place finisher had 40%+ and it's hard to see how the Establishment candidates could pull off comebacks in a low-turnout runoff.

I wouldn't be surprised if Branch withdrew too.

Dewhurst's ego and wealth probably mean he's not going to go quietly. And maybe he has more oppo research he's going to throw at Dan Patrick.

I'd be very surprised if Dewhurst withdrew, same with Branch bc it seems like he really wants to win it.

Hegar received 49.992% of the vote with 3310 provisional votes.  About 1/2 of these are in Travis, where because of the weather the polls opened at 11 am on Tuesday.  A court order left the polls open until 9 pm, but those voting after 7 pm had to vote provisionally.  Since Hegar had more money, he may have been able to call Travis County voters encouraging them to get out to vote.  He would only need 52.8% of provisionals to receive a majority.

The Republican Party has to run the primaries.  Though it is state funded, funding is rigidly controlled, so they would be interested in holding down costs.  People with $$$ to donate would not be interested in investing in Hilderbran.   Voters for Medina are more likely to vote for Hegar.  Rural voters might be more inclined to vote for Hilderbran, but they already would have done so.  And voters aren't going to turn out to vote for comptroller.

Staples and Patterson were willing to go after Patrick because they were competing for the same voters.  An endorsement of Dewhurst probably would not be that effective.  The only folks who would want the primary fight to go on would be Dewhurst and the Democrats.  What can they offer Patterson or Staples?  And the Democrats prefer Patrick as the Republican

In 2012, Dewhurst led Cruz 44% to 34% in the primary.  Cruz picked up 150,000 votes in the runoff, Dewhurst lost 150,000 and 300,000 didn't vote (the primary had the presidential primary to push turnout).

"Hello, I am Leticia Van De Putte.  I know Wendy Davis and I are not going to win.  But I'll be back in the Senate, and I prefer David Dewhurst as presiding officer.  All that dustup about him not recognizing me at the end of Wendy's filibuster is forgiven.  So I urge Republicans to vote for David Dewhurst." simply won't work.  Taking surreptitious aid from the Democrats, is going to backfire on a Republican electorate.

An AG runoff between Branch and Paxton is not going to hurt the GOP in any way.

They aren't willing to address the essential flaw of their methodology.

Some folks at UT wanted to get into the polling business, and phone polling is too expensive.  But there is no way to match people who use the Internet and are willing to be part of a YouGov panel, with those who have similar demographics but don't.

Yeah, it's pretty ridiculous. Based on early vote numbers I actually think Rogers picked up votes bc of the misguided Tribune assertion that she was the frontrunner.

Democrats might have got scared and put a little effort into GOTV.  Otherwise, they probably would be saving money for November.

The senate race is top of the ballot, and the Democrats don't want voters to not straight ticket vote, or try to explain how to vote "Democratic" and then vote for Cornyn or try to un-vote for Rogers (it is possible to vote straight ticket vote and then intentionally not vote for anyone in a particular race, but it is not obvious).

Van de Putte did go after Friedman, but they might not want to have drawn attention to Rogers.

Branch will NOT drop out ever !

Who is going to contribute any money to him?

Branch should tell the Tea Party Useful Idiots backing Paxton to suck an egg.

And he should tell Jonathan Stickland to go back and finish high school before he goes meddling in an election he isn't a candidate in.

Davis pushes Abbott to clarify his position on equal pay legislation. (http://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Wendy-Davis-accuses-Greg-Abbott-of-dodging-on-5304069.php?t=758055d3a3d95dc057#/0)

She's been doing a good job with this. It's a losing issue for Abbott because:

1) He defended the state in court against an A&M University professor suing over her pay, and in particular exploited holes in the federal Ledbetter law to win the case.

2) He (so far) refuses to say if he would have vetoed the state-wide Ledbetter bill, which Perry vetoed. This bill was authored by Davis, and addressed holes from the federal law and allowed women to sue in state court, which is less expensive.

3) He has said that we don't need a state-wide law but his actions as AG show exactly why we do.

4) If he says he would NOT veto the bill, he has flip flopped and would piss off some supporters for looking like he caved to Davis.

I may edit this post when I think of the other thing I was going to say, which has slipped my mind.

How about some TV Ads from both Abbott and Davis in the summer?

The professor was at Prairie View A&M, and she alleged discrimination on the basis of race (she is non-black) and sex.

The issue was whether Texas law automatically incorporated changes in federal law made after the claim was filed.

The SCOTUS had ruled that federal law required a claim had to be made within 180 days of the date the alleged discriminatory decision was made.  In response, federal law was changed to require a claim to be made within 180 days of an act in consequence of the alleged discrimination (ie when you last were paid).

But the SCOTUS decision, and the change to federal law was made after the claim under Texas law was made.

The bill that Governor Perry vetoed would have changed state law to match federal law.  Perry said that a state law was not needed, since the federal law was available and had not been used.

The reason the state process is cheaper is because there are alternate procedures when the pay claim is recent (ie employer paid employee for 15 hours, when they worked 20), and can be used in cases where there is not a need to hire expensive lawyers.

Folks, former Fort Bend County Democratic Party chairman Steve Brown (D) is a rising star in Texas statewide politics. How do ya'll rate his chances in the Railroad Commissioner's race ?

>thinking all that makes it okay for Abbott to oppose equal pay

Does Van De Putte have any chance if Patrick wins the runoff?

D + Present TX = ~41%-46%

Little, but yes she actually does have a small chance should Patrick make many fringe comments (which, he will).

And Patrick will win the runoff. Dewhurst's numbers are unbelievably bad.

Could you attempt to express your thoughts in complete sentences?

I will be voting for Ryan Sitton (R) in that race if he's the nominee; probably the only statewide race where I'll be going GOP this year.

Why? Because Sitton is an engineer with a background in oil & gas and Steve Brown comes across as a political hack with no relevant experience.

But if it's Steve Brown vs. Wayne Christian, I will certainly vote for Steve Brown. Because Wayne Christian is just a horrible, fundamentalist, racist, regressive from the Hezbollah wing of the Texas GOP and he's so awful his own district voted him out of office in the primary in 2012.

A lot of organizations, business, etc, will probably withhold support for a while to see what happens. The primary has made people wary. But it would still take a lot of stupidity on Patrick's part to lose.

More likely his district changed radically,

dropping Nacogdoches, Jasper, and San Augustine;  -110K

keeping Shelby and Sabine; 35K

and adding Panola, Harrison, Marion, and Cass.  +130K

and his opponent was the mayor of Marshall.

I'm going to laugh if Steve Brown (D) wins the open Railroad Commissioner's race in November

The 5th Circuit has upheld Texas' 2013 anti-abortion laws.
http://www.dallasnews.com/news/state/headlines/20140327-u.s.-appeals-court-upholds-tough-new-texas-abortion-restrictions.ece?8

Van de Putte plans on doing a bus tour across the entire state until April 7th.

Setting the over-under at Abbott 56%, Davis 43%.  Does Davis do better or worse than this?  Discuss.

That seems about accurate in my opinion, though Davis could do a bit worse if some of the more conservative Democrats decided to either sit out the election or vote for Abbott due to her strong pro-choice positions.

Y'all are underestimating the BG TX folks. They will pull this race to single digits.

I think Wendy will get between 52% and 54% But I really do not see her getting any new non-base voters. I kind of wish Bill White was running.

For what it's worth, Davis got quite a few Romney voters in 2012; Obama only pulled about 45 percent total in her district. But of course this was before SB 5. That's a rather enormous caveat.

Anyway, I don't see her pulling off 54% ever. ;)

Bill White would have been more stronger against Abbott this year than Davis.

I've got Abbott still beating Davis though somewhere between 57%-40% or 65%-33% considering Abbott's 5 statewide victories, he's blown his opponents out by big double digits.

Thank you. We really value your projections.

Abbott has 5 statewide victories, but none of those contests have been anything close to being contested.

I don't see Wendy Davis doing any worse than Bill White did in 2010. ~42% is her floor.

You're betting Abbott gets the same 55-42 margin of victory that Perry got in 2010. Out of 254 counties, how many will Abbott carry against Davis ?

A.) 226-same that Perry carried in 2010.
B.) 218
C. 236
D.) 207

Who cares? ::)

Brown's been doing very well seizing on the issue of earthquakes in Azle. Residents there are quite shaken up, literally. But obviously, his fortunes are tied to the candidates at the top of the ballot.



Beautiful prediction ;)

Ray Hutchison, former state legislator, Texas Republican Party chair, husband of Kay Bailey Hutchison, and one of Dallas's most influential attorneys, died yesterday (http://www.texastribune.org/2014/03/31/ray-hutchison-dead-82/).

He was instrumental in bringing the state GOP into relevance in the 1970s. Ultimately, his own political fortunes didn't pan out. He was defeated in the 1978 primary for governor by the more conservative and better funded Bill Clements and distanced himself from electoral politics after that.

I heard about that. Condolences to the Hutchison family.

He met Kay Bailey when they were both serving in the Texas House.   I don't think you can say that you are distanced from electoral politics when your spouse is state Treasurer, and later US Senator, and candidate for governor.

This legitimately got me. I was excited until I checked the date.

http://www.texasmonthly.com/daily-post/alright-alright-alright-dark-horse-statewide-office (http://www.texasmonthly.com/daily-post/alright-alright-alright-dark-horse-statewide-office)

Jimrtex, both have the distinction of getting crushed in their respective bids for the governorship.

Mike Collier, THE WATCHDOG, has this ad up in the Houston area: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ACuw837ND4

KBH's husband to be buried at the Texas State Cemetery in Austin.

Texas Big Business (http://www.mystatesman.com/news/ap/texas/business-interests-question-republican-truths/nfSyh/) is starting to grow tired of Republicans' anti-immigrant rhetoric and lack of interest in education or public investment.

But, the Texas Miracle..... ???

There are limits to what cutting government waste starts turning hampering necessary infrastructure for good business development. Hopefully the state leg realizes they've taken things about as far in one direction as they can go.

We'll see because most voters aren't paying attention due to school, projects, etc.,

PPP is releasing their new Texas poll tomorrow. Here are the tidbits they tweeted out today.

In his 14 years in the Governor's Mansion, Perry was never really popular with majority of Texans.

Austin American Statesman showing Abbott up 51-37 over Davis.

Deep down, the Texas Dems are wishing former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) was the nominee this year because he would have done better against Abbott.

FBI probe of NTTA includes a Davis file.  (http://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/headlines/20140417-fbi-probe-of-ntta-includes-wendy-davis-file-travis-das-office-says.ece)

Could Bill White have had a shot to win against Greg Abbott, or would he have still lost?

I'm thinking White would have been stronger and made the race closer against Abbott.

Plus, he would've competed in the major parts of the state.

It would've been between 51-49 in Abbott's favor.

Anti-Corruption Unit Head: No Davis Docs Given to FBI (http://www.texastribune.org/2014/04/18/anti-corruption-unit-head-no-davis-docs-given-fbi/)

Seriously, I can't believe the DSSC has invested money in this state. Too early, if one day Texas becomes democrat again (what I strongly doubt).

Castro is saving his firepower for 2018.

Davis would be lucky to get 40%, the same number Laredo oilman Tony Sanchez (D) had in 2002 when he got punked by Perry.

The Republican Establishment may have the last laugh in the May runoff.

Ken Paxton, the Tea Party-backed Republican candidate for attorney general, was recently fined and investigated for violating state securities and ethics laws (http://www.texastribune.org/2014/05/02/paxton-violated-securities-law-gets-reprimand/).

And while neither Dewhurst nor Patrick performed especially well in their debate in Houston tonight, Dewhurst has been flooding Texas airwaves with attack ads.

Bless your heart.

Pretty humorous take on the Paxton scandal. (http://texasconservativepolitics.blogspot.com/2014/04/internal-review-yehhhhhhhhhh.html)

Not that Republicans have ever had a problem with holding their enemies to standards they never hold themselves to.

Patterson is endorsing Dewhurst
http://keranews.org/post/primary-opponent-jerry-patterson-tells-kera-hes-endorsing-dewhurst-over-patrick

Have you guys seen this Dewhurst attack ad on Patrick?

The Ballad of Dannie Goeb (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPzz60a7As8)

I wonder how George W. Bush feels sitting at home in Dallas watching the party he helped bring to the pinnacle of power in Texas be reduced to absurdist, self-cannibalizing performance art.

He should paint a picture of Dew and Patrick debating.


Did anybody watch the WFAA debate this week? HILARIOUS.

After the primary, two top people in the Dewhurst campaign quit, over what was described as a dispute over the direction of the campaign.  It was reported that persons close to Dewhurst's wife were being consulted.

So his original campaign staff said we aren't going into the gutter.   His wife insisted that he should.

I've always been kind of skeptical of Tricia Dewhurst. She strikes me as a very self-serving, calculating person. Before she married David Dewhurst, she was married to Teel Bivins, a very wealthy Republican state senator much older than she is. Teel Bivins was the Ambassador to Sweden in the Bush years and was stricken with a degenerative brain disease. She turned around and divorced him and while he was dying in hospice care, she was marrying her new catch, the Lieutenant Governor. She had a daughter with Bivins, Carolyn, whom David Dewhurst frequently refers to as "his daughter" despite the fact that he is not her father and Dewhurst has no children of his own.

David Dewhurst has his own spotty marital history. In the '90s, he was married to a former beauty pageant queen who was repeatedly arrested for drunk driving and forced into rehab following an intervention.

Of course the Faith, Family, Freedom Party likes to keep all of that under wraps.

Barry Smitherman endorsed Dan Branch in AG runoff
http://www.dallasnews.com/news/20140508-barry-smitherman-endorses-former-foe-dan-branch-for-texas-attorney-general.ece#cxrecs_s

Dewhurst is said to back legislation to repatriate the state's "university gold" from New York City.

It didn't help Dewhurst when his other opponent endorsed him against Cruz in the Senate primary, so I'm not sure it will work here either. It may lower the margin a bit, but I think Dewhurst losing is a pretty sure thing even with all of these controversies on Patrick coming out of the woodwork.

If Patrick is the nominee, I have to wonder if Dewhurst might wage a write-in campaign or if some other Republican might launch an independent bid.

Or if the RPT doesn't just throw Patrick to the wolves and figure he'll either be dragged across the finish line with Abbott or Leticia Van de Putte will win and the Republican Senate will take away whatever ability she has to do anything.

If Van de Putte wins, she'll need to COMPROMISE with the GOP-controlled State Senate.

I can't see them bitching about a Democratic LG and making her irrelevant: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lieutenant_Governor_of_Texas

In Texas, you have to file as an independent candidate in December (2013), and then collect your signatures after the primary.  Remember the "Save Yourself for Kinky", when voters were urged to eschew the primary so that they could sign Friedman's petition in 2006.

Maria Luisa Alvarado, the Democratic Lt.Governor candidate in 2006 indicated that she was going to run as an independent this year, but it is not clear that she filed.  Her former web site domain is now available.

Texas has a sore-loser law that prohibits a primary loser from running as a write-in candidate for the same office.   So Patterson could run for Land Commissioner and Dewhurst could run for senator, and Staples could run for Ag Commissioner, but none could run for Lieutenant Governor as a write-in candidate.

Ron Paul Supports David Dewhurst in Texas Runoff Election (http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-Texas/2014/05/08/Ron-Paul-Supports-Lt-Gov-David-Dewhurst-in-Runoff-Election)

This article says that Dewhurst made the claim on here:

(Youtube)Ron Paul's Revolution TV - David Dewhurst (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mO4HDzZMt6k)

Interestingly, the claim was made at the time (2012) that Sam Malone was dropped by KSEV because Malone supported Ted Cruz against Dewhurst in the senate race, while Patrick was supporting Dewhurst.

I checked on HB 3505.  It got a hearing in a appropriations subcommittee late in the session.  So either Dewhurst is not so effective; or Dewhurst is getting desperate.

Dewhurst as write-in vs. Cornyn might be fun.

Dewhurst would need to keep hitting Patrick hard in the TV Ads.

I thought the sore loser law only applied to running as an independent candidate on the ballot. I thought anyone could declare themselves as a write-in candidate.

Election Code 162.015(b)  You can run for a different office as a write-in, so Dewhust could run for senator or governor, Patterson for land commissioner, and Staples for ag commissioner.

The law on independent candidates is even more strict.  If you voted in a primary for the office in question, you can't run as an independent.   But this is consistent with the law that you can't sign an independent petition, if you voted in a primary for that office.  In practice this doesn't matter too much since independent candidates must make a declaration of candidacy in December (2013).

The final ballots in the SD-4 special election are stuck on a ferry between Bolivar and Galveston.

Small, but the special election to replace Ft. Worth City Councilman Joel Burns was held tonight.

They will be going to a runoff between Ann Zadeh and Ed Lasiter.

This is the council district that Wendy Davis represented. Many see Joel Burns as having a bright political future but he announced he was leaving for a one-year program at the Kennedy School earlier this year. Most Dems (including myself) hope he will run for state Senate or something else when he returns.

If Konni Burton or Mark Shelton win SD10, Burns would be a great candidate to challenge them in 2018.

State Senate District 4 Special Election Results

St. Rep. Brandon Creighton (R) - 13,705 - 45.2%
St. Rep. Steve Toth (R) - 7,193 - 23.7%
Gordy Bunch (R) - 6,612 - 21.8%
Michael Galloway (R) - 2,818 - 9.3%

Creighton and Toth, both of whom are sitting state representatives, will go to a run-off. Creighton is an extremely conservative Establishment Republican. Toth is a Tea Partier to the extreme - a fundamentalist Christian pool contractor from The Woodlands first elected in 2010 after defeating moderate Republican lawmaker Rob Eissler.

Gordy Bunch is a businessman from The Woodlands who has never held elected office. He gave off a kind of David Dewhurst-esque "rich Republican trying to pretend to be a Tea Partier" vibe.

Michael Galloway held this senate seat back in the '90s and was considered part of the Gingrich era Republican Revolution. Unfortunately, this means he is too liberal by the current standards of the Republican Party. That combined with his many years out of office could account for his poor showing.

Kesha Rogers on here senate candidacy
http://tribtalk.org/2014/05/19/why-me-and-not-david-alameel/

Also titled: I can't believe it's not from the onion.

::)

Thanks Texas Democrats, for not bothering to google your candidates before you vote.

FWIW, here is Alameel's op-ed.
http://tribtalk.org/2014/05/19/why-me-and-not-kesha-rogers/

Texas Democrats haven't recovered since Richards got the boot in 1994 and getting swept out of all remaining statewide offices in 1998.

I think the sad reality is that a lot of African-American primary voters probably voted for Kesha Rogers for no other reason than that her name "sounded black." (She also happens to be black, but I doubt most people were paying enough attention to know even that.)

Early voting for Monday in Top 15 counties:

GOP 29.6 (vs 19.6 in primary)
Dems 9.8 (vs 18.6 in primary)

Top 15 includes Travis, El Paso, Hidalgo, and Cameron, which makes it appear more balanced.

GOP vote in Harris County up 130%, where they outnumbered Dems 7 to 1.   Up 79% in Montgomery where they outnumber Dems 44:1.  GOP vote up 93% in Collin, where they outnumber Dems 16:1.

Patrick and Paxton are nominated.

I already knew Dewhurst was finished once Cruz punked him in the 2012 U.S. Senate GOP primary runoff (see West Virginia punking Clemson in 2011 Orange Bowl). On the State Attorney General campaign, I'm holding out hope for Branch to pull off the upset.

What about the primary nomination runoffs for Agriculture Commissioner and Railroad Commissioner, Place 1 ?

I never thought someone would ask that. It's like a NYE what-if timeline.

What does a football game have to do with anything?

AgComm: I give it to Sid Miller over Tommy Merritt. Miller has the Tea Party on his side.

RR: Ryan Sitton has the support of the oil & gas industry, but this is a far-down-ballot race with little visibility. Wayne Christian has zero oil & gas experience but has held elected office before and is plugged in to SoCon/Evangelical GOP politics (I mean, the guy's last name is Christian, after all). Advantage to Christian.

I'm hoping Branch wins on Tuesday night because he's got endorsement of many Texas law enforcement agencies.

Paxton keeps running the same old boring TV Ad from February: embarrassing.

Branch has been running new TV Ads.

not only is Branch running new ads, they're done quite well. Lol @ Paxton.

IndyTexas, who is the less crazy of the two?

Of which two?

For Ag Commissioner, both the candidates are basically stereotypical palm-greasing, glad-handing good ole boys. Both of them saw their careers in the State House end when they got primaried from the right and lost. I'm not sure either of them is legitimately qualified for the job.

For RR Commissioner, you face the Sophie's choice of having a guy who is sane and experienced but also a total oil industry shill regulating the oil industry, or having a whacko-bird SoCon who has no background or connections to the oil industry and occasionally expressed legitimate skepticism towards it (he once co-sponsored a bill to promote renewable energy in Texas, which Sitton is now criticizing him for).

Oh I meant between Paxton and Branch.

Branch is less crazy and honest.

"honest"

FTFY

My statewide runoff predictions:
Lieutenant Governor-GOP: Patrick-51
Dewhurst (Inc.)-49

State Attorney General (Open)-GOP
Branch-53
Paxton-45

Commissioner of Agriculture (Open)-GOP
Miller-56
Merritt-41

Commissioner of Agriculture-DEM
Kinky-57
Hogan-43: this dude is LAZY: WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU CAMPAIGNING FOR POLITICAL OFFICE FOR (paraphrasing Christie's pissed off attitude)

Commissioner of Railroads, Place 1 (Open)-GOP
Christian-54
Sitton-42

I voted for Jim Hogan.

Perhaps the Libertarian LG candidate will get a bunch of late-campaign attention and Dan Patrick can get Cuccinelli'd.

Dan Branch endorsed Morgan Meyer in the HD-108 Republican runoff.

If you don't know anything about the race, you just need to know that the runoff has been extremely ugly.

So I've heard. Is there an unwritten rule that rich white men in Dallas have to either have girls' names like Morgan or Kelly or WASP-y one-syllable names like Chart or Court or Whit or Shep?

Chart Westcott has managed to earn a fake Twitter account in his honor:

https://twitter.com/TheChartWestcot (https://twitter.com/TheChartWestcot)

What's the latest of State Rep. Stefani Carter (R-Dallas)'s reelection campaign?

Can she win the runoff or will she get the boot?

I hope she gets thrown out. She was being heralded as the Tea Party dream - a black woman with a Harvard degree who sounded intelligent and wasn't a Cain/Carson/Keyes-type fundamentalist - and she ended up being incredibly overrated.

She didn't do anything to stand out last session; her decision to randomly run for railroad commissioner and then drop out and try to keep her seat after other people had already entered the race showed she's an inept politician; and then she went and hit someone with her car and tried to cover her tracks by filing a claim on the other person's insurance and pretending it wasn't her fault.

Tarrant County's Republican delegation has always been a hotbed of crazy and inept, but that seems to be spilling into Dallas County. And with Dan Branch gone, it won't get any better. Que lástima.

Hopefully the Texas Democratic Party gets some new life breathed into it with this election, even though they'll likely lose. Gotta start somewhere.

Guess this might as well be the unofficial election night thread.

Now the only suspense is just how badly the Dew is going to lose.

Dewhurst has lost, according to AP:  http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/TX_Lieutenant_Governor_0527.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Currently trailing 65 to 35%.

He's conceding right now. Livestream is below...

http://www.texastribune.org/livestream/ (http://www.texastribune.org/livestream/)

If he had not run for re-election, he would've saved himself the embarassment.

And a few million dollars of his money.

Ratcliffe gets the AP check.

I-TX: Why didn't Dewhurst either retire or concede in March? Ego?

Because he could afford not to. If it were anyone else, he would have more or less had to pull the plug because even if he didn't see the writing on the wall, his backers would. That's the Achilles heel of every multimillionaire who has ever run for office.

It's funny how people who are so good at putting money in the right places when it comes to businesses and investments can so foolishly throw good money after bad in political races.

Self-Funder Syndrome.

Patrick's severe underperformance in Webb and Nueces counties tells you just how toxic he is to Hispanic voters. (Laredo and Corpus Christi are among the few areas of the state where Hispanics vote Republican in significant numbers.)

Patrick also declared in his victory speech that he intends to SHUT OUT all Texas Democrats in the State Senate by preventing them from getting any chairmanships on major committees.

What's the latest on State Rep. Stefani Carter (R-Dallas) ?

^AP has called it for Koop with 60%

The good news is that Kesha Rogers will not be the Democratic nominee for Senate. The bad news is that David Alameel might be a vampire (according to Kesha Rogers).

Best ad of 2014

Patrick lost Webb 132:140.  96% of voters in Webb County voted a Democratic ballot in the March primary.  For the runoff, Democrats had 65 polling places, and the Republicans 4.

Executive summary: You don't know what you are talking about.

Care to explain Nueces County, then?

I know it must be hard for you, knowing your party just nominated the Second Coming of Pete Wilson.

I was seriously surprised Branch lost by so much. Did Paxton ride Patrick coat-tails?

I assume so.

Paxton is heavily favored obviously, but hopefully his indiscretions will get Sam Houston some notable endorsements/attention.

Big question is whether we could see some early internal polling on the Patrick vs Van de Putte matchup ?

Dewhurst is the Indiana Pacers: getting punked by stronger, bigger teams.

Map of Dewhurst's margins in the 2012 vs 2014 runoffs. (http://www.openheatmap.com/view.html?map=MotteosNecessitatingTamoxifens) He did better against Cruz in the blue counties and better against Patrick in the red counties:

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What is your explanation of Webb County?

So it looks like a tea party lady Konni Burton is likely going to take Wendy Davis' State Senate seat. The Democrats are throwing away a Senate district for someone who is guaranteed to lose statewide, this is truly a shocker. I am shocked, shocked I tell you. Who could have seen this coming? [/sarcasm]

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Unrelated from the recent discussions, but does anyone have a reason why Jefferson County (SE Texas - Beaumont) is still a Democratic-leaning county? Demographic-wise, it seems it should favor Republicans, although not overwhelmingly so. Could it be an anomaly left over from the heavily Democratic South days?

IIRC it has a very significant black population and a large university.

I understand what you and Flo are saying, although Waller County, just NW of Harris, is home to the historically black Prairie View A&M, and has roughly similar demographics to Jefferson (if not more D leaning), yet voted ~58-41 for Romney vs. 50.3-48.7 for Obama in Jefferson County.   

It seems a combination of fewer blacks and more conservatives that separate Waller and Harris.

Checking Google there have been significant controversies over whether Prairie View A&M students can vote in Waller County; I can't find something similar for Lamar University, so it's likely the university has a more outsized impact. Jefferson also has over 5x the population of Waller, so there's that. More urban liberals.

There is a longstanding controversy between Waller County and Prairie View regarding the university students' voting rights. The District Attorney has sued to prevent students from voting at their school address; election officials "accidentally" misplaced about a thousand students' registration cards, just in time to keep them from voting in that year's general; polling locations are as far out of the way as possible; student candidates for local offices routinely get ignored in the voter guides, etc

Even if Davis wasn't running for statewide office this year, the State Senate seat (District 10) was going to be gone regardless.

Badgate, you know Abbott vs Davis (Gov) and Patrick vs Van de Putte (LG) look like an old newscast team:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jD242k5qg60

Why is this post directed at me? lol

Beaumont and Port Arthur are heavily unionized, with refineries, port and other facilities.  They have also been losing population for decades, which is quite atypical for a city in Texas.  They are on the border with Louisiana, which has voted Democratic until quite recently, and which was true of all East Texas until quite recently.  It also has a large concentrated black population.  At the time of the 2002 redistricting, there was one Republican House member from East Texas.  Currently, one remains, which is a VRA district in Beaumont-Port Arthur.  Moreover, the Democrats only have 4 nominees in around 20 House districts.

In other parts of East Texas, it has not been uncommon for all the local government officials to become Republicans.  Rather than running in the Democratic primary, and token Republican opposition, they run in the Republican primary, with token Democratic opposition.  Over time, this works up ballot, as there are no county commissioners, etc. to run for the legislature.  In 2011 and 2012, two of the remaining House members switched parties.   One of them Allan Ritter did so between being elected as a Democrat in 2010, and being sworn in in 2011.  The other, Chuck Hopson switched parties in 2009, was the Republican nominee in 2010, but was defeated in the Republican primary in 2012 (which also included a change to his district).

Because of Beaumont and Port Arthur, Jefferson County does have a core Democratic Party, instead of some non-partisans who could run Democratic primaries and then switch to Republican primaries as happened in smaller counties.

In 1996, when Steve Stockman lost to Nick Lampson, it was because of Jefferson County.  The 1996 congressional election was conducted as a special election concurrent with the November general election, because the Supreme Court redistricting ruling had come down after the primaries.  Rather than wait until 1998, the primaries were tossed and special elections were ordered.

In Texas, special elections are all-comers, without regard to party, but with a majority required.  On election day in November, Stockman had a 46% plurality.  The runoff was in December.  While the district was one of many in the Houston area and therefore was buried beneath news of parking lots full of Christmas shoppers, in Beaumont it was the only district and actually got news coverage plus the union GOTV effort.   Since then, the Republicans have included Jefferson County in senate and congressional districts dominated by Houston suburbs.

The students tend to only vote in presidential elections.  Prairie View A&M is located in the middle of nowhere, whereas Lamar is in Beaumont.  Most of the students are local to the Golden Triangle.  If they lived further north, they'd go to SFA or Sam Houston, further west, UofH, or further east to Louiisiana-Lafayette.  Waller is also on the edge of the Houston metro area in the Waller (town) and Katy areas.

The District Attorney wrote a letter to the county election administrators regarding the student.  She told him that she was going to follow the standards from the SOS.  The governor, attorney general, and SOS told the DA he was wrong; the county commissioners who were being sued over the issue, held a closed door meeting with the DA; and he grudgingly offered an apology to settle the lawsuit.

The polling location was at the student center until a renovation, when it was moved to a county community center on the edge of the campus area, and quite near the post office.  Part of the controversy with regard to student voting is that there is no on-campus postal service, and so many students give a mail address outside the county, at the post office, or use the PO Box for the campus mail service.  Nobody thought to move it back until someone noticed they were a victim.

The civil rights organization True The Vote (TTV) prepared a report that showed that the student center would be a better location, since it was ADA compliant, had 10 times the parking (the university administration has agreed to waive the $2 poll tax parking fee during elections.  There would be more space, more voter privacy, and better control since voting would occur in a ballroom on a 2nd floor area that was not in general use on most days.  TTV also pointed out that because of the Shelby County decision, that the county could simply move the polling place and not seek the approval of Washington bureaucrats.

At the recent primary runoff election, voting was consolidated at the campus site for two precincts, the mainly on-campus 309, and 310 in the town of Prairie View (the campus is in the city limits, but there is a separate residential area),

Waller ISD, which is based in the town of Waller, which is on the Harris County/Waller Count line) and not the county school district, apparently published a voters guide one time.  One of the opponents of the students had served on the school board for a dozen years and was a professor at Prairie View.  One of the student-candidates said that she hated Waller and Texas, and couldn't wait to graduate so that she could move back to St. Louis (Missouri).  In its endorsement, the Waller newspaper noted that the two student candidates had not attended a candidate forum.  They lost 205-1098 and 160-1151.

Texas Gubernational now likely rep for Cook.

Makes sense. Abbott is a stronger candidate than Davis, and the dems have to do more than have a good candidate to win Texas (see: Bill White in 2010)

National Democrats should just focus spending $$$$$ on Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine.

Both Patrick (blue) and Paxton (red) won 65/35-ish but their coalitions were a bit different: (http://www.openheatmap.com/view.html?map=MadecaseDoctoratedSplittail)

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Since there's no Ag Commissioner category to generate maps for on this site, I made one on my own. (http://www.openheatmap.com/view.html?map=StrangewayssSarcodiniansPneumonopathy) Hogan (red) beat Friedman (blue) by about 8% :

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Actually Dave just added Ag commish to the list of races :)

I don't know if this has been posted, but anyone who cares about Democratic candidates with potential future in Texas politics should read this Texas Monthly interview with our nominee for Comptroller, Mike Collier.

http://www.texasmonthly.com/story/it-wont-be-political?fullpage=1

I've seen the TX Monthly article on Collier: very impressive, but he needs to run more TV Ads during the summer in order to introduce himself statewide.

Houston Chronicle and Texas Monthly think after Perry leaves the Texas Governor's Mansion on January 20, 2015, that he plans on moving to California.

http://www.texasmonthly.com/

I went to the Texas Dem Convention yesterday, it was a freakin' blast. Davis and Van De Putte blew the roof off the place. Some highlights I'd like to share:


Trey Martinez Fischer, a state Rep., is clearly getting ready to 1) run for VDP's state senate seat or 2) run state-wide. He hosted the after-party last night, as well as giving one of the longer and more energetic speeches that was accompanied by his staff passing out "TMF" placards. For the after party, we had to "RSVP" by writing our name, number, and email: clear indication he is trying to widen his volunteer and donor base. There is also this sign that was at his booth and also outside the after party:

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Here is the TMF placard:

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(Sorry...too lazy to rotate the image)

TMF also delivered my favorite line of the night, explaining that in spanish GOP stands for Gringos y Otres Pendejos :D :D :D

Joaquin Castro had another great line: "I wish politics were like sports. I wish we could trade Ted Cruz to Massachusetts for Elizabeth Warren."

What is really interesting is to see the excitement for this year, but also the jockeying for four years from now. Castro, Fischer, Annise Parker all spoke end energized the crowd. We truly are a party on the rise, despite this forum's pervading narrative to the contrary.

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Steve Brown, our Railroad Commis. candidate, was very nervous (I think this was his first ever speech of this size), but handled himself well. I think he has a great future and he's obviously very articulate and knowledgeable of the challenges facing the Railroad Commis. What especially impresses me is his focus on Parker County, which has had a slew of earthquakes and other problems, some of which have been attributed to tracking, and the commission has been absolutely abysmal in responding to the community. Now, Parker co. is VERY Republican. (as he said this, you could hear the ten Democrats from Parker in the crowd cheering their butts off) But the fact that he's willing to go there and talk about his proposed Office of Public Advocacy for the commission shows a lot of courage and smarts.

I missed today's speeches, which bums me out because I wanted to see Mike Collier and Sam Houston speak in person. :( However other than the speeches the only other things going on today cost extra money.

But yesterday was a great great day.

Over everything else, you all HAVE to watch this video Leticia Van De Putte's campaign played before her speech last night. http://youtu.be/vOU6xfpvo0A

Ah, the Texas Democratic Party. Where Trey Fischer magically becomes Trey Martínez Fischer and becomes a state representative. Leticia Van de Putte is kicking herself for taking her Dutch husband's name when she got married. It doesn't help that 'Putte' sounds kind of like 'puta' when you say it with a Spanish accent.

Nothing could kill my buzz but that was a nice try!

How was TexDemCon 2014? Was there sufficient liquor? Weird hats? Do the little old ladies who vote Democratic think the little old ladies who wear American flag shirts and still ask for the "real" birth certificate are just suffering the lingering aftereffects of a really bad stroke?

I don't think Ferdinand Frank Fischer III speaks Spanish. 

He's an Anglo sleeper agent trying to pass himself off as a brown person. ¡Tan escandaloso!

Are the polls getting closer here, or are people already assuming this will be a cakewalk for Abbot?

^ Should be a pretty routine win for a Republican in TX. The last credible pollster here was PPP and Abbott was up 51-37.

I don't doubt Greg Abbott will be the next governor. I'd rather that not be the case; however, Wendy Davis has run a really mediocre campaign and honestly I didn't think she was that great of a candidate to begin with.

I wish the TDP would put more money and attention into the downballot races, which honestly seem more winnable at this point. LiteGuv and Comptroller would be the two I'd focus most heavily on.

Random question for Texas posters: Any of ya'll heard of this woman JoAnn Fleming? She's from Tyler and is one of the state tea party leaders.

She got some YouTube videos up; she did a breakdown of the legislative races. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tj2-qwmqJv8) She criticizes most of the Republicans from the right, so its a different perspective.

It was great. Granted, it's my first state convention, but I could tell it was the best one in a while. I can't ever imagine Bill White or Chris Bell or even Tony Sanchez garnering the excitement you could feel in the hall last night when VDP and Davis spoke.

I don't drink, but there was alcohol at the after parties IIRC.

Only one weird hat that I saw, a sombrero with a plush donkey  and an american flag on top. I complimented her on it.

There was one cool guy who collects a sh**t ton of buttons and posters. He had this perfect JFK poster going for $150. I bought the Chisholm button in my sig from him.

My grandmother actually did have aftereffects from a stroke, so I'm highly offended.

NYT on Davis. (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/29/us/for-davis-filibuster-goes-only-so-far-in-race-to-be-governor-of-texas.html?_r=1) Question for Texans: will the margin be closer to '10 or '02?

2010.

2002 was a very good GOP year, Tony Sanchez became a very tainted candidate, and the demographics of 2002 Texas are not like the demographics of 2014 Texas.

The polls have only gotten more distant.

Sanchez also had the drug money allegations regarding the Tesoro Savings & Loan Scandal, which Perry exploited very masterfully.

Plus it didn't help that Sanchez wasted $76 million of his own money in a hopeless campaign for the Texas Governor's Mansion. I don't even think the Democratic Governors Association even raised $$$ for him either.

Diana Stallings Hobby, wife of former Texas Lieutenant Governor Bill Hobby, Jr., (D), passed away yesterday from Alzheimer's Disease and cancer.

Houston Chronicle and other newspapers reported it.

Longform piece in Rolling Stone on the current state of the Republican Party in Texas. (http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/lone-star-crazy-how-right-wing-extremists-took-over-texas-20140701)

Castro might run in 2018 against Abbott.

There's also going to be pressure on some Dems to give Cruz a run for his $$$ in the U.S. Senate race.

Since being sworn in as Senator, Cruz has visited Iowa more than he's visited the Rio Grande Valley. He's in for a run for his money period.

FTFY.

Why can't it be both?

Did y'all hear about outgoing Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson (R) slamming outgoing Governor Rick Perry (R) in an email, referring him as a "West Coast Metrosexual" ?

http://www.texasmonthly.com/burkablog/

Just scroll down and click the article when y'all find it.

It really says something when someone as conservative as Jerry Patterson has decided the RPT is a bunch of right-wing nutjobs.

Why is no one polling Texas? The last poll showed a 12 point deficit, which seems shockingly low to me.

Because the deficits are getting bigger in size, not smaller.

My brothers think Abbott could win by 30.

Please don't invite them to this site.

If he invites them and they troll, maybe we can get him banned for bringing them here.

He's not going to win by 30. That would be on par with George W. Bush's 1998 reelection performance.

I'm thinking more along the lines of Abbott 55 / Davis 43 / Glass/Other 2.

I guess horrible predictions must run in the family.

lol

UT President Bill Powers to step down in June 2015, 5 months after Perry leaves the Texas Governor's Mansion on January 20, 2015.

http://www.texasmonthly.com/burkablog/

Abbott will outperform Romney in Texas. Enough said.

It seems that Davis has run a pretty terrible campaign. I hope that Van de Putte can win in her race, although I haven't heard much from her campaign or Patrick's campaign.

Patrick and Van de Putte are even in the $$$ fundraising race for Lieutenant Governor.

The other statewide offices such as State AG, Comptroller, Land Commissioner, Agriculture Commissioner, Railroad Commissioner and the judicial statewide offices: I haven't seen any fundraising reports from those down ballot statewide contests.

57-42 or so is pretty likely, yeah.  Not sure if I'd agree that Davis' career is done, though, she could easily find herself appointed to some bs position as a sop to Texas Democratic donors by Obama or a potential Clinton Administration.

Rassy has Perry's approval at 54/43. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/texas/perry_for_prez_what_do_texans_think)

The Border Security debate have increased his popularity as he's on his way out of the TX Governor's Mansion.

One big question is will Abbott out-perform Perry in November, considering Perry won by 13 points over White in '10 (55-42) ?

Wow.  If this ad isn't effective, I don't know what is... Click here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EV3aMuXsOVQ).

Won't make a difference. It's already common knowledge that the GOP doesn't view rape victims - or victims of anything else, for that matter - as worthy of sympathy or justice. Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock reminded us all of that.

Wow. That was a great ad.

There are very few rules in state-level political races in Texas.

Very emotional but it oversimplifies complex constitutional issues to appeal to the lowest common denominator similar to "death panels"

Death panels won the Republicans a lot of House and Senate seats in 2010.

Until I saw that ad I had no idea Abbott was in a wheelchair.

He opposes the ADA, so maybe he has no idea he's in one either.

For the second time in a row, there will be no statewide televised gubernatorial debate in Texas.

Greg Abbott is backing out (http://www.wfaa.com/story/news/politics/2014/08/29/abbott-pulls-out-of-gubernatorial-debate-with-davis/14797259/) of his prior agreement to appear in a debate with Wendy Davis at the end of September.


Outgoing state senator John Carona (R-Dallas) was critical of Abbott's decision:

My hat is off to Abbott: This is one of my favorite ads of this cycle.  (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAuKRyQgvgU)

This is utterly despicable. He's not even going to justify this with some BS pretense like Perry did against White ("I'll only debate if you release all of your tax returns from forever"). He's just going to straight up refuse to debate. I challenge any Republican to defend that course of action.

He'd been working with a debate coach for over a month, and the coach reversed his campaign's earlier decision to do the roundtable format (the debate between Sadler and Cruz in 2012 was this format). However he then agreed to a debate hosted by other stations on the same day, with a very rigid format that includes timed responses. After WFAA-the hosts of the roundtable debate-decided to no longer pursue a debate (and gave Abbott some very negative coverage), Davis has agreed to the alternate debate.

Pointing out that he's not merely a former judge who opposes the ADA, but that he's a former judge who opposes the ADA while being a cripple himself?

What a stupid message. Those poors in the valley and inner-city Metroplex just aren't pushing themselves hard enough, of course.


There was probably also an elevator in that garage.

And now we get to spend these last weeks of campaign season discussing Wendy Davis' elective abortion (http://www.politico.com/story/2014/09/wendy-davis-ended-pregnancy-110659.html?hp=l7).

If there was any doubt Davis was doing this as a way to springboard to the head of some feminazi organization.........

Leave now

You're sarcasm detector is failing you

This is one thing that makes the attention Davis has got a little bit strange.

Abbot has a compelling story (arguably more so since it's rarer for someone paralyzed to run for Governor), and he's much more likely to win.

She is seriously pissing me off at this point. We all knew she wasn't going to win anyway, but at this point she's just blatantly using this campaign, its resources and its donors as a platform for self-promotion. Her decision to release her memoir this month is great for her, but it's idiotic from a campaign standpoint - it just gives Abbott an entire book to pick apart and criticize her on if he so chooses.

She's starting to resemble a better-educated, blonde version of Sarah Palin.

I was being somewhat sarcastic, but yeah at this point she's auditioning for a job as a special reporter on Rachel Maddow's show

Was just about to post this. Obviously she wasn't going to win, but it could have at least been somewhat close. Still, very sad that she had to make that decision.

I'm not sure on that point.

The parts of the book that have got the most attention (terminations of pregnancies for health reasons) are part of the public record. She's down enough in the polls that it could be worth trying to bait Republicans into saying something stupid.

I never heard about her having an abortion before this. Whether or not someone had an abortion is certainly not a part of the public record.


This is disturbing because it implies Davis viewed a second-trimester fetus as a person and, by extension, chose to commit murder by ending that person's life.

That last part is pretty awful, but I don't think this does too much to the race - It hardens pro-lifers opposition, but they already were going to vote against her anyways.

I was under the impression she mentioned it during her filibuster.

Because it's pretty important for voters to know their choices in an election.

Even if she is going to lose it's a disservice to democracy if he's not willing to contrast his views with hers.

Yeah, why should we even bother having an election!

Pffffttt... please. She's too right-wing for feminists to support her. She's pro-death penalty, supports fracking (#1 cause of rising cancer rates in the state), and isn't even really pro-choice in the sense that she's not going to make a crusade to re-establish abortion access throughout the state - she'd let it wither away and die once in office, even if she had control over that matter (and a Democratic governor almost certainly will not).

This thread sure is bringing out the idiot brigade...

Livestream link for Friday's debate (6pm Central time)

http://texastribunefestival2014.sched.org/event/c5af9719056b26322f0c85341c01fdf0#.VBnTcvldU18

Also, she's probably to the right of most non-Southern/Western Republican governors as far as gun control is concerned.

I had a very bizarre dream last night. Rick Perry was running for reelection this year and Bill White was running against him, setting up a rematch of 2010.

Also, I guess Texas operated under a joint-ticket system in this reality, because former Houston mayor Bill White's running mate was former Houston mayor Lee Brown and they had made these "White and Brown" campaign signs that featured a brown-and-white color scheme. I don't know who Rick Perry's running mate was.

Echoing a new generation of Virginia Democrats who declared their independence from Dominion Energy, the preeminent power and energy company that has long dominated politics in the Old Dominion, a new generation of Texas Democrats are declaring their independence from the similarly dominant oil and natural gas industries in their state:

Some Democrats swear off oil and gas money, risking ‘third rail’ of Texas politics (https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/texas/article/Some-Democrats-swear-off-oil-and-gas-money-14862417.php)

> DSA candidate with no chance does something DSA candidates with no chance usually
do

gasp

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1201999204563984385

I don't care for the rating, but the retirement is a further sign of GOP troubles the booming parts of the state.

The name of the city always makes me laugh, like Sugar Land lol what type of name is that

It grew sugarcane lol. What do you expect, Willy Wonkas candy factory?

Orange County CA was named after the Citrus which grew plentifully in the region back before suburbanization :P

Just sounds funny lol :P



Orange County is a pretty cool name and it’s a county name not cities . Like their is no city in their called Orange Land

The name comes from a sugar refinery which was built around 1900. (Imperial Sugar)

1843. Imperial Sugar is considered to be the longest extant business in Texas.

Originally there was a Sugar Land Plantation, on the site of which developed the company town of Sugar Land.

Oddly enough he suggested that his opponents in the Republican primary were only running because they were Asian

Miller had been listed as possible appointee for Commissioner of Texas Department of Family and Protective Services, which may have drawn challengers.

Reading through past messages,

Tricia Bivins divorced David Dewhurst in 2016. In August 2019 it was reported that she was suing him over money from their divorce settlement.

Wendy Davis has filed for TX-21 listing her occupation as "community advocate".

Dewhurst doesn't seem to have had much luck with marriage.

He didn't marry until he was in his late 40s, to an ex-beauty pageant queen named Tammy who developed a drinking problem and constantly embarrassed him at rich people parties with her drunken outbursts. That marriage ended in divorce.

Then he married Tricia, who previously had been married to state senator Teel Bivins. That clearly didn't work out either.

Are there gay rumors with him or am I mixing him up with someone?

I've never heard anything about that.

You may be thinking of Rick Perry: during his 2012 presidential campaign, someone released a very poorly-sourced tell-all book including interviews with men who claimed they had discreet hookups with Perry while he was governor.

https://twitter.com/cassi_pollock/status/1204516491711930368

Another one. Zedler won re-election by just 3.64% in 2018. Ted Cruz won this district by just 0.14%.

The Texas Republican Party is chomping at the bit to take South Texas beginning in next year's midterm elections:

Republicans think they can take South Texas — especially after a win in McAllen (https://www.texastribune.org/2021/06/11/texas-republicans-mcallen-south-texas/)
Statewide officials are campaigning in the Democratic stronghold and GOP groups are now targeting statehouse districts.