Talk Elections

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/pennsylvania-miscellany.html

Christie 48%, Clinton 44%
Clinton 48%, Bush 44%
Clinton 51%, Paul 43%
Clinton 51%, Santorum 42%
Clinton 53%, Cruz 41%

Clinton will win pa.

The polls seem to be converging if you counted Republican bias on off years out west.
 
If  2016 and 2014 simultaneously happened today, the tipping point would still probably be PA/CO.

Republicans will get just what they need in the Senate plus 10 in the house. In 2016, they would pick up 2 in the senate and maybe another 5 in the house.

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Pretty much a mirror image of 2012.


GOP 53/249
Dem 47/186



Chris Christie   51%
Hillary Clinton   47%

Not exactly the Reagan Revolution, but given the circumstances, very similar to when Bush was doing well. 

Long story short: The democrats are unpopular right now but things still can get better but also much worse.

Come on, with another Republican government shutdown in January and February, which still seems highly likely, GOP will be doomed as a brand for the rest of 2014, and the effects might be even more sinister for them than the short-term yet grave effects during the month of October. Let's see what polls are showing during March and April before we conclude that Christie will certainly beat Hillary in 2016. ;) At least according to the first 72 polls of 2013 and late 2012, Hillary is still ahead of Christie nationally with an average margin of somewhere between 7% and 8%, which is almost identical to where she is in Christie's own home state, which could prove to be a crucial battleground in 2016 in the end (just like Arkansas possibly might be another one).

Not surprising. Christie will overperform NH, NJ, PA, ME,...

If Christie beats Clinton in pa, the election is over. Dems only need Co or Oh to win with the 272 firewall. Pa is already calculates in Dems behalf.

Except now a shutdown based on the premise of repealing Obamacare may actually hold water with the voters. And really, after the last shutdown, I get the impression that the public doesn't think they're that big of a deal. I mean, shutdowns aren't great... no one likes them... but the political context has changed a bit.

Very surprising, and encouraging results!

I didn't realize that this was a new polling thread. I imagined being in the Ohio or Iowa thread. So you guys are quite right, this is for sure a dramatic poll for Hillary. From the two previous Pennsylvania polls, Hillary lead every Republican contender by at least 12% (though neither of them polled Christie at the time, oddly enough). Now that's changed to Christie leading Hillary by 4% in the state. That's a 16% shift (at least theoretically, though noone should expect Christie to ever have been down that deeply in the state, the New Jersey bordering state), which is one of the most dramatic shifts/turn arounds we've seen all year. This also means that Hillary's lead nationally, only from this one single poll, has been reduced from 7.5% to now "only" being 6.9% ahead of the generic/tailormade Republican (which in 17 of 26 cases happens to be Christie himself).

He'll probably look even worse by election night 2016 when he's possibly lost 120 kilos or so though. :P He would also make one of the shortest presidents ever elected in US history. Anyone knowing exactly how tall/short he is? In centimetres preferably. :P

He is 5'11 lol

Christie performs like Generic Republican right now, voters know little about him. Clinton OTOH is one of the best known people not only in the US but the entire world. On paper he seems impressive but let's wait and see until he actually hits the trail.

Actually he performs way better than Generic Republican. Generic Republican would not be leading Hillary in PA.

That said, Christie is riding high right now. Just coming off the glowing media coverage of his landslide victory just over the border. I live in SE PA so I saw tons of his ads. However, the Tea Party is going to take their pounds of flesh off him during the primary (no pun intended...really). Even if he does make it out of the primary, which is not even close to a certainty, he'll be heavily damaged from the right-wing attacks as the Tea Party despises him.

The last PA poll to include Christie was by Quinnipiac in March, and had Clinton leading Christie by 5:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=170593.0

Thanks, that changes everything quite a lot! :) Suddenly Hillary is back in the lead again in Penn state, even against Christie, and if only by a tiny breadth of a hair. ;)

Christie won't win 22% of Dems or 31% of blacks. That said he is obviously a very strong candidate as he's perceived as moderate and connects well with people emotionally. I suppose hillary could make up PA with Florida as the GOP white vote is near maxed out there but I don't see FL as bluer than PA before 2020.

If Obama doesn't turn things around, Clinton may very well follow in McCain's footsteps.

Hillary is no McCain. We are seeing a tightness of the polls as we all knew was gonna happen. Just makes the Dem pay more attention to pick someone from a swing state like Hickenlooper.

looks like staying in state for college will have its perks lol

Christie vs. Clinton by age:
18-45: Clinton +7
46-65: Christie +13
65+: Christie +8

I shouldn't even have to point this out, but I will: Respondents in this poll voted equally for Obama and Romney. In reality, Obama won the state by almost 6%. Also, this poll is only 46% to 43% Democratic.

Yeah, Christie winning's more of a testament to him than the climate in the state. South Jersey's basically like the Philly burbs politically, and their markets overlap a lot. I have a lot of family across the spectrum in the burbs, and everybody thinks Chris Christie's awesome. I'd expect a narrow Christie win in a neutral climate, even against Clinton.

Yeah, if you take all the most recent polls at face value, then you have an electoral map in which Christie is doing better against Clinton in PA than either Florida or Ohio.  Which would be a fun map to see.  Florida going Dem. and Pennsylvania going GOP would be fun.

Not to mention Hillary winning Kentucky and almost winning Mississippi of all places.

From a political spectator perspective, I wish we could have another election like 1976, in which the map is covered in swing states, and there aren't just seven competitive states that decide everything.  If you believe the Christie vs. Clinton polls, then such a matchup in 2016 would be full of swing states.

Sadly, I don't think it's going to hold up.

I think Democrats will come home in the North and West and that Republicans will come home in the South and farm states and that it will be a lot like last time. Then again, there could be a landslide if one base comes home and another doesn't.

They could come home in some/most states, but not everywhere.  The map does slowly change over time, and we shouldn't expect everything to line up the same as 2012.  And of course, Clinton isn't Obama, so she'll inevitably be stronger in some states than he was, and weaker in others.  (Likewise, Christie isn't Romney.)

Christie will do lacklusterly in Utah, and likewise in other Mormon states like Arizona and Nevada.

Considering Christie's regional strength here, I don't think that is necessarily the case once you factor in that Clinton also has an added strength in Florida, a state Republicans supposedly have to win.

I suppose they don't have to win it, but winning without it requires a variety of somewhat unlikely things to occur:

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There is NO way Hillary will lose Pennsylvania...

They said the same thing about Colorado and Republicans in 2008.  That being said, Hillary can't win without Pennsylvania and probably can't win if she tries to win without Iowa or Colorado.

Oh really?

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Do you really expect Hillary to win Ohio without Pennsylvania? This seems like a map similar to what McCain was hoping for around Halloween. That is. To hold Florida, NC and Indiana somehow get over the top with Pennsylvania.

I'll see it when I believe it but I am weary of this sort of thinking because I don't want the Democrats to be in the mindset by August that they only need to be campaigning in the bare majority of states to win.

There is no scenario where OH goes Democratic and PA goes Republican.

Sure there is. Suppose a blizzard hits southern Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Let's see. In 2004, it went D+2 and in 2012, it went about D+1.  Maybe Christie will do better in Pennsylvania than in the rest of the country. Then again, Ohio went the national average in 2004 and in 2012, it about R+1. Provided all of this, I can see how Pennsylvania can decide the election if Christie wins Ohio and Florida and Hillary still at least holds Virginia or both Colorado and Iowa.