Talk Elections

49-43 Paul/Clinton

46-42 Bush/Clinton

44-40 Christie/Clinton

44-41 Clinton/Cruz

December 12-15, 2013
Survey of 1,509 Kentucky voters

http://www.scribd.com/document_downloads/192171096?extension=pdf&from=embed&source=embed

Here's the trend:

In the Dec. 2012 PPP poll from KY, Hillary led Paul by 5 (47-42).

In their April 2013 poll, the race was tied 45-45.

And now she's down by 6.

I think there could be 4 reasons for this trend:

* A) Benghazi - With more people aware of the situation, Hillary might have dropped.

* B) The general drop in favour for the Democrats in recent months.

* C) the margin of error

* D) the fact that Rand Paul is now seen as a more likely 2016 candidate, which leads more people in KY to take him serious. (the previous polls showed that people didn't want Paul to run in 2016, that figure is now much higher).

Heh, Cruz.

The reason why Hillary has dropped is down towards her being seen as a national Dem rather than a non-partisan SOS. This comes as a surprise to no-one.

New map:

()

304 Clinton
234 Christie

lol @ the idea of Clinton winning Arkansas and Louisiana while losing Colorado and Virginia

Also, it would help matters if The Media would cover the Rand Paul plagiarism scandal - which they've ignored.

Why won't PPP poll AR? Because we need a new TX poll a few weeks?

or New Jersey for that matter. Maybe Christie is giving the opportunity to a diverse and very educated state to reconsider the Republican Party. More likely, the average voter wants someone who will keep Government affordable and not charge head first into things they aren't comfortable yet but still wants a Government that provides good services and respects civil rights.

I still predict that by state-to-state margins, this election will look a lot like 2000. Hillary is a terrible candidate for the Mountain West and the Southeast compared to Obama, but will improve upon his performance in the interior South and Rustbelt, though I have my doubts she will actually flip any states there (losing Arkansas by 5% instead of 25% is still losing Arkansas).

Regardless of what polls say now, I doubt that Kentucky will vote to the left of Iowa or Colorado in the end.

Poor Ted Cruz has become the male version of Sarah Palin in the GOP. Having said that, I sure hope he gets the nomination. I wonder if Hillary or the Democratic PACs will take a page out of Claire McCaskill's playbook and run some ads during the Republican primary saying that Ted Cruz was responsible for the government shutdown, is too conservative, etc., that will help energize their base to vote for him.

49/43, Jeb leads 46/44 and Cruz trails 44/41.  (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_KY_103.pdf)

Kentucky will not vote for Hillary. It's actually amazing that her husband won it amidst his war with the tobacco industry.

Still quite a large drop for Republicans considering the 2008/2012 results.

Bush 46%
Clinton 42%

Christie 44%
Clinton 40%

Clinton 44%
Cruz 41%

Paul 49%
Clinton 43%

The way things are going, it just might. This poll was taken many weeks ago.

Only in your most liberal fantasy will that happen.

Did you check the age breakdown?

Let's be honest: Old people are more likely to die before 2016. And they're more Republican.

Oh no question, but Obama is the worst possible pick for Kentucky.

You know there won't be enough deaths by 2016. You must be joking if you think Kentucky will actually do Democratic in the next election. Wait until the 2020 election for that.

Uh, Hillary is already beating Ted Cruz in that poll.

Come on, once campaign season starts, Kentucky is going to settle back in the Republican camp.

Didn't you say the only reason Kerry lost KY was because of voter fraud?

Clinton will obviously do better in the state, but the votes aren't there to actually get a plurality against anyone except perhaps Cruz.

He lost the whole election because of fraud.

Why did I even bother arguing against you? :p

Debatable. But I asked about KY, which voted Bush 60-40.

Not surprising. Closer is better in states like these, in order to ebb the bleeding at a local level.

Think of it this way: The Republicans have gotten so bad under the Tea Party, that why wouldn't they lose support?

But it's doubtful he'll be the nominee, unfortunately.

Only against Cruz or a joke candidate (like Carson, Trump, etc.) could Clinton win KY.

But since the GOP is a joke party, Clinton could win KY anyway.

We'll see. I think Grimes will need a pretty solid victory in the Senate race (5+ points) before I consider it possible that KY could vote for Hillary. If McConnell wins or it's very close, definitely no chance.

It's a young, attractive statewide elected official with Kentucky roots vs. an old career politician dinosaur with a 31% approval rating. If they can't break with their recent GOP trend for that race, they never will.

Oh yeah, totally.

Clinton will not even be contesting this state and if Paul is the nominee anyway she will have no trouble winning.

Why do you post this again ?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=184307.0

Edit: merged

If anything, Kerry lost Ohio due to electoral fraud as the R pols made sure to put plenty of voting machines in R-friendly districts and too few in D-friendly precincts and had more stringent demands for documentation of voters' IDs in D-friendly precincts. Such was the allegation.

It's usually only right before elections occur that threads are train-wrecked quite like this. Congratulations, guys (I guess).

You had to know her numbers would come down like this. Voters are much more willing to give her the benefit of the doubt years out just because of her name than when it gets closer and even moreso once the election starts up and the punches start flying. Kentucky will settle back nicely into the Republican column. The only Democrat who can contest it is Schweitzer, but even he would not win because gains in Appalachia are not enough to tip the state like they are in WV (since the entirety of that state is essentially located in Appalachia).

Bill Clinton probably won Kentucky due to Ross Perot's third-party run syphoning off voters who would have otherwise went for Bob Dole.

Bill Clinton dropped off a lot in Kentucky in '96. I didn't vote for him then, because he ran such a right-wing campaign.

Still, 46% is quite high compared to everyone else that come since.

In other words it's been a 10 point race between Hillary and a Republican in Kentucky since 2007/2008.