Talk Elections

Happy New Year everyone, and welcome to the new thread! I found this year's Bye-Bye about as amusing as last year's, which is to say 6/10. Room for improvement.

Looking forward to it. What's coming up this year? New Brunswick votes in the fall and possibly Quebec/Ontario. Anything else?

Toronto votes in October. New boundaries take effect May 1. Grits will be picking their candidates this year. If the federal election's next spring - Harper has said as much due to the provincial votes scheduled next fall - then this summer kicks off the pre-writ period. Insofar as it still exists in the Permanent Campaign. :P  This will also be the last deficit budget, hopefully.

It's my resolution to learn more about Canadian politics in 2014 then I did in 2013.

Does anyone get the feeling that Justin Trudeau could be Canada's Barack Obama? I'm getting a    Bush vibe from Stephen Harper as well.

No.

(One of the important secrets of Canadian politics is that the Conservatives were the first to embrace the Obama campaign's big-data tactics - though they had to cancel their newest voter database project.)

Yeah. if Harper is like a Bush, he'd be Bush I. Dull and competent.

14 PMBs to watch. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/14-backbenchers-set-to-seize-the-commons-spotlight-in-2014-1.2467241)

I get a Justin Bieber vibe from Justin Trudeau.

EKOS year-end poll is out.  (http://www.ipolitics.ca/2013/12/31/the-ekos-poll-shedding-light-on-a-dark-year/) Greatest Canadian of 2013 is Hatfield by a wide margin, Ford Biggest Villain, Trudeau Preferred Drinking Companion, most Canadians expect either the Tories or Grits to win next year.

Ahem. All of Ontario's municipalities vote in October. >(


Again, no one has an ipolitics account! Here is the EKOS link: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2013/12/looking-backward-and-looking-forward-part-1/

FTR, I mentioned they should include Justin Bieber in that poll. They were having none of that.

Jim Coutts has died after a long battle with cancer. RIP.

No Bieber but Carly Rae Jepson was included in the choice for greatest canadian. (she received 0.5%)

Isn't Trudeau only Liberal leader because his father was? (In terms of the whole 'sentiment' thing).

Yes. If his last name wasn't Trudeau I doubt he would've even won the nomination in his own riding.

For me, in terms of the whole "in it for himself/famous last name" thing, he's less deserving of his position than Iggy.

There's a long dynastic tradition in federal politics and certain provinces (BC, Ontario, Quebec in particular) too, but that's faded over the years. Federally, this is the first time a party leader's son led that party. In the '70s David and Stephen Lewis led the federal and Ontario NDP concurrently for a few years. Mulcair's descended from legendary PLQ premier Honoré Mercier, BTW.

Is Trudeau Chapiteau as bad as Beiber Fever or are the two clowns not really comparable?

9 questions on Ontarian politics. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com//news/politics/nine-questions-about-ontarios-political-future-in-2014/article16157705/?cmpid=rss1&click=dlvr.it)

TF: Since (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xyiiR2ZSNs) you asked.  (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYlWiZMhaLE)

Ford has filed for reelection "Ford More Years."  (http://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2014/01/01/torontos_2014_election_kicks_off_with_rob_ford_in_the_starting_gate.html?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed) Chow and Tory won't declare for another month or 2, if they do.

So there are more people who feel that Rob Ford (or basically any politician) is a greater Canadian than Carly Rae Jepsen? Please end the world.

(and apparently the idiots spelled her name wrong. Please prepare the drones)

I'll let the guy who made the mistake know that you personally think he's an idiot ::)

Luckily, it was spelled correctly on the survey itself.

Solid Paul Adams piece on class. (http://www.ipolitics.ca/2014/01/01/is-justin-trudeau-talking-to-you/)

Grits narrowly won Q4, $2.2 to $1.7 million. (http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/396418/justin-trudeau-remplit-les-coffres-du-parti-liberal) Anyone know the Dipper numbers?

Unsurprisingly, Trudeau wins the beer test.  (http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/01/03/justin-trudeau-beer-poll-harper-mulcair_n_4536352.html?ir=Canada+Politics) Except in Quebec, where Mulcair does.

Trudeau because I want to ask him if it was awkward running against someone his Dad used to bang.

I doubt it was awkward, considering how many ladies PET messed with.

I really don't understand the people who would still vote for Ford.

Wrong thread now, but they're his hardcore tribalists.

This is a good analysis: http://torontoist.com/2014/01/the-teflon-mayor-reading-rob-fords-poll-numbers/

Of note, Ford supporters tend to be lower educated, often lower income, non-white (non WASP, especially; Ford is a Catholic), suburban, car drivers.  Basically the kind of people who think they're on the "outside" of power.

Far more depressing news: *at least* 4000 kids died in the residential school system. (http://o.canada.com/news/national/at-least-4000-aboriginal-children-died-in-residential-schools-commission-finds/#.UscS6ej6BvU.twitter) Not till '96 were the last of them shuttered.

Considering that the council has effectively neutered the mayor's office, I'd be willing to vote for Ford either for the lols or simply as a protest.  That isn't to say I would vote for Ford.  I don't know if there would be a candidate I could support in eir own right.  Even if there be no such candidate, I don't know if I'd want to protest the Third York City Council. Nor do I know if I'd think Ford would be the best person to tweak the council with.  On the other hand, if I were a Canadian comedian, I'd absolutely vote for Ford.

Hey now, you should definitely vote for your economic best interests :D

Most successful Canadian comedians go south in their "economic best interests" and thus wouldn't be eligible to vote.

I don't think very many Toronto comedians are voting for Ford. Do you honestly think Rick Mercer is a member of Ford Nation?

I wish I knew more Toronto comedians but I don't. I sometimes go to comedy clubs downtown and Ford comes up a bit, but it's never really Torontonian comedians performing so...

Thank God: Sea Kings will be retired starting next year.  (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2014/01/03/ottawa-wont-scrap-cyclone-chopper-purchase-sea-kings-to-start-retiring-in-2015/#.UsdD8NCEiUl)

Coutts obituary. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/jim-coutts-was-trudeaus-right-hand/article16193954/?page=all)

OPCs should focus on the economy, since White Papers can only take flight with a majority.  (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/hudaks-diagnosis-of-fiscal-crisis-proves-a-hard-sell/article16193805/) Almost like some moderates there forget what happened 2 years ago when they backflipped and ran as McGuinty-lite.

I feel like he'd spend the whole time talking about himself. Eugh.

I'm curious. Where does everyone stand on Michael Chong's bill?

Staunchly oppose. (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2013/12/03/chong-bill-needs-some-sober-first-thought/#.Usg35NCEiUk) My hope is that Harper and Poilievre kill it with a smile, have a debate but then send it off to committee oblivion.

Dippers raised 800k last Q. (http://globalnews.ca/news/1062625/ndp-exceed-fundraising-goal-in-december-still-far-behind-liberals-and-conservatives/) Is there something I'm missing? On QP Flaherty insisted, without prompting, that he's running in 2015 and so will Harper. Though for obvious reasons Flaherty could hardly say otherwise about his own prospects. Needless to say Clement would be his replacement were he to leave. Mulcair talked as usual about hiking corporate taxes and energy policy, Trudeau was Jell-O but did talk about the usual infrastructure/health/education Grit stuff to do with the surplus. Scoop from Ivison: apparently Kenney threatened to quit Cabinet over his new portfolio (which he doesn't like) because he feels he's been set up to fail without more money allocated in the budget. Probably an underlying cause of his feud with Flaherty.

Somewhat oppose. The political junkie in me likes it, but the person who wants stable government does not :P


I imagine he's pissed because it puts him in a slightly worse leadership position as well. Immigration gives him the ability to keep all those immigrant Tories in Vancouver/GTA in his camp.

Increasing doubts among Tory insiders about whether Flaherty's health will let him hang on till the election. (http://www2.macleans.ca/2014/01/05/a-long-and-painful-balancing-act/) Unless there's a fairly sharp deterioration my guess is that he does, and I won't believe he retires unless it happens. His feud with Kenney started in '09, when Kenney interfered in Ontarian politics by endorsing Hudak for OPC leader alongside the other high-profile Ontarians like Baird, Clement and Poilievre. Flaherty was supposed to corral his caucus colleagues for his wife.

There was a security breach at Harper's Vancouver speech today (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2014/01/06/economy-northern-gateway-pipeline-top-agenda-as-stephen-harper-goes-west/#.UstFPDaA2P9). Also, Michaud (long time no hear!) thinks the BQ should disappear. For once I agree with him.  (http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2014/01/06/003-yves-michaud-bloc-quebecois-disparition.shtml) Meanwhile there's the perennial Red challenge to Anders which will flop as usual. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/conservative-group-challenging-nomination-of-extreme-mp-rob-anders/article16208009/)

Anders needs to go. It's theoretically possible. After all, Nenshi won the area in the Fall.

Agreed, but I'd prefer a bleu there. Won't restate my views on non-Edmontonian rouges. :P So I'd abstain from voting were I a resident in that riding.

Manitoba PC's have a 22 point lead. Would result in a landslide win. NDP are on their way out regardless but I imagine the Liberal resurgence is going to exacerbate the loss.

()

Anders is objectively a disgusting and repulsive waste of oxygen (who should probably have been removed from the Tory caucus if they had any sense of decency). Basically anything would be preferable to him.

I know the Ontario Tories have had sitting MPPs get primaried. I know Norm Sterling was primaried by a tea bagger in the last election.

No, he may have gotten primaried by a more conservative candidate, but no true Canadian, no true Empire Loyalist would consider himself a tea bagger.  Never forget that the Boston Tea Party was done by a bunch of radical rebel scum, not by conservatives.

Buckley Rule for me. A degree of turnover is healthy IMO.

Libertarianish suburban/rural politicians are often referred to as Tea Partiers up here. People affiliated with the Ontario Landowners Union are considered as such.  Another example is a certain mayor of a large metropolis in this country.

Maybe by orange and red avatars. ;)

Then you Canadians are idiots ignorant of history. ;)  (Or perhaps you're on your way to being assimilated into the United States.  BWAHAHAHA!)

Yes, and I doubt actual Tea Partiers would approve of our loyalty to the Crown.

Our new ambassador to Israel will be announced today. (http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/01/08/toronto-lawyer-vivian-bercovici-to-serve-as-canadas-next-ambassador-to-israel-in-latest-sign-of-ottawas-approach-to-middle-east/)

You're not exactly the Canadian tea bagger type. You're very socially conservative, and economically moderate. Canadian tea baggers are the opposite. Socially moderate, economically very right wing.

Looks like Kenney may get a Jobs Grant deal after all.  (http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/01/08/john-ivison-jason-kenneys-mission-impossible-can-he-get-provinces-on-board-with-job-training-program/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)

Oh yeah, I didn't mean to suggest I was a Tea Partier...

Yeah I take that comment back. Now that I think back, most of the libertarianish people I know in CPC oppose the monarchy.

Hebert thinks the BQ can disappear quite soon. One can only hope, though I'll believe that when it happens.  (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/01/08/bloc_qubcois_sliding_into_oblivion_hbert.html)

I forget whether this has been discussed here, but: what is the status of Ontario provincial redistribution? Is there legislation addressing the question whether a provincial election after the passage of the federal representation order would be held with the new federal boundaries?

Not that I know of; it will probably be addressed after the next election.

I am hoping for a complete overhaul, including adding new ridings (20-40 more, at least), but that is rather unlikely.

Another idea is to equalize Northern Ontario's ridings, but create a sub-provincial parliament (a devolved legislature if you will) for the region, like Scotland.

Hmm. That will make for some seriously imbalanced ridings, if an election is still to be contested with the old map.

Yep, but an election could happen this Spring.

G&M on Mulcair's strategy (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndp-leader-thomas-mulcairs-next-task-win-over-the-country/article16287324/?page=all) and La Presse on Trudeau's Montreal recruitment.  (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201401/11/01-4727696-les-candidats-se-bousculent-aux-portes-du-plc.php) Unsurprisingly, La Presse doesn't note the lack of regional recruitment, which is where the Orange-Red battle will be fought. Because narrative forming.

Liberal regional recruitment should be good, they managed to get a good candidate in my riding last time (through, they seemed to really bother, put up an office and hoped to win on a 4-way race).

I do wonder who said recruits will be. Meanwhile here's the other take on Mulcair: not getting traction outside the Hillverse.  (http://www2.macleans.ca/2014/01/10/can-you-hear-me-now-2/)

Bloc new leader will be announced on May 25, except if there is a provincial election this spring.

Here's the link. (http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2014/01/11/003-course-direction-bloc-quebecois.shtml) Also, Hebert thinks the BQ could disappear. I won't believe that unless it actually happens.

I personally think than if they fail to improve on their 2011 result at next election, the question will be openly asked, as those heavy defeats are hurting the independance movement.

Agreed. I guess their voters would scatter to the winds, with a majority probably going to you guys. Softer core ones to the Grits and the righties to us.

NS Finance Minister is finally going to get her February holiday. She introduced it every year for several years in a row, and she's finally getting it in the spring session :D

So, are the Liberals governing to the left of the NDP?

Eh. The only major thing they've done is announce they won't be cutting the HST. I'm not sure whether that's left or right.

Trudeau got ensnared on expenses.  (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/01/16/justin_trudeau_pays_back_840_over_improper_expense_claims.html)

So I did a tax return for someone from Ontario today.

You know that big bad "tax the rich" rate for earners >$500 000? NS has higher rates starting at $30 000 >:(

Tax reform probably isn't on McNeil's agenda, alas.

PLQ is finally taking a coherent position (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/charte-de-la-laicite/201401/20/01-4730356-le-plq-dit-finalement-non-au-tchador.php) on the charter and enforcing proper caucus discipline (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201401/19/01-4730331-le-plq-et-la-laicite-houda-pepin-forcee-de-se-rallier.php), but perhaps too late.  Leger has the PQ ahead 36/33/17 and nosing into majority territory at the magic 43% of Francophones (http://www.cjad.com/cjad-news/2014/01/20/new-poll-puts-wind-in-pq-sails?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter). 69% of Francophones support the charter, 74% of non-Francos oppose.

Pierre Paquette will run against Legault (http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/397670/pierre-paquette-contre-legault) in L'Assomption - in an election which the PQ president sees as inevitable, regardless of who provokes it. (http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201401/17/01-4729968-elections-provinciales-inevitables-dici-lete.php) Does Marois pull the trigger if turkeys don't vote for Xmas?

LPC nomination in Ville-Marie between a Trudeau BFF and a Chretien endorsee (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/201401/17/01-4729625-investiture-au-plc-dans-ville-marie-chretien-appuie-un-candidat.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_lire_aussi_4730375_article_POS2).

Analysis of the poll from Josee Legault (http://blogues.journaldemontreal.com/joseelegault/politique-quebecoise/quand-un-sondage-en-cache-quelques-autres/), plus full results. (http://www.leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/20141201.pdf) Grenier estimates a 70/47 seat split. Young voters are still anti-Charter.

Tip: Find Legault's article through Twitter to skip the paywall. Works for most JDM articles.

PLQ  (http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/01/20/national-post-editorial-board-how-quebecs-liberals-fumbled-the-values-file/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)has been  (http://www.lapresse.ca/debats/chroniques/lysiane-gagnon/201401/17/01-4729904-y-a-t-il-un-chef-au-plq.php)completely useless and pathetic (http://www.lapresse.ca/debats/editoriaux/francois-cardinal/201401/16/01-4729532-ou-est-philippe-couillard.php) on the charter, as even their staunchest supporters admit. Now Couillard loses a previously unknown backbencher  (http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Houda+Pepin+leaves+Liberal+caucus/9408135/story.html)(Fatima Houda-Pepin) he should've booted eons ago, instead of being pushed around. Even Dion and Iggy didn't get pushed around by random backbenchers.

A sad day for moderate Muslims in Quebec, they get bullied because the Liberals need the vote of the extremist ones. Truly disgusting from them (and I'm a Charte opponent, but that lady left her country to flee exactly the one thing which causd her being expelled).

EDIT: To clarify, nothing about Houda-Pépin would have ended in news without the "tchador incident", and I do not believe it was an accident. Fundamentalist Muslims are trying to get rid of her since decades, since she is a "bad example" to Muslim women and they used that to get rid of her. Liberals had no choice but to follow to not lose votes and especially money (Liberal's funraising is quite bad).

It's a victory for (Muslim) fundamentalism. Passage of the current PQ Charte would be a victory for Catholic fundamentalism, too. Everyone would have been better without that silly and disgusting debate.

Huh? Couillard got mired in what he himself admitted was a purely hypothetical question. To the point, they should've had a position months ago and once agreed upon, in or out. I don't see where supposed Catholic fundamentalism enters into the picture. Not when Muslim and occasionally Sikh or Hasidic garb has been the focus for eons. We do wholeheartedly agree on the Charte being disgusting and silly.

Catholics (and Christians in general) don't wear "ostensible religious signs". The Charte is obviously targeting the other religions (it's pretty obvious when you see than they want to keep the cross in the Assembly, which is very visible and obvious). The goal is to cater to the people in rural Quebec rambling about "turban people wanting to take over and impose their religion" (those rural nuts sadly exist and are often Catholic fundamentalists).

The Mulism fundamentalists wanted to get rid of Houda-Pepin for so long than I cannot believe they are not behind it, even indirectly.

Totally agreed, misunderstood - thought you were implying Catholic fundamentalism was the Charte target, rather than part of its target audience. At any rate, Marois now has the "can't govern yourselves, can't govern the province" to add to her talking points. Extremely ironic for her particularly and the PQ generally, needless to say.


What do you think the odds are for a March election? After getting burned last November I won't believe it unless there's a dissolution.

I do not think than government will fall over the budget. Marois wants the election to be about the Charte. I suppose she is planning than CAQ and Liberals will vote against once than it reach the Assembly after the freakshow of the parlimentary committee. She wants the Charte to fail to use it to into an election.

So, March, I suppose? I do not know how the parliamentary schedule is made in Quebec and which speed government will use on Charte progress into the procedure.

The current speculation is that she'll dissolve the Assnat in 3 weeks' time.

It's the first time I heard about it, but, who knows? Polls are favorable, now, she may want to go now, especially with Couillard being weak and totally absent from the public debate.

An election during the Olympics? F**king Marois.

Hudak fired his Essex candidate for refusing to recant his anti-RTW Tweets. PLQ should take note of how you deal with public insubordination on party policy. Meanwhile the unions are in a lovely catfight about who's leading the anti-PC fight in Ontario. (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/01/21/unions_slide_from_unity_to_emnity_over_tim_hudak_cohn.html#)

No, they shouldn't. We want party leaders, not dictators.

More Ford videos, which Ford has confirmed are authentic. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXpwflzSF4M)

Whoa: Dunderdale's resigning, Tom Marshall will be interim premier. Guess she didn't want to go down with what looks like a imploding guv. To think I thought Williams had set them up for dynasty...

Something to do with yesterday's floor crossing? Too bad Williams left...

Also, I'm not surprised that Ivison had this scoop.

Wierd. Usually, they announce they'll resign once they have a replacement, not an interim premier (ad CBC is telling than Marshall already announced he would retire in 2015). Three premiers from the same party in 2014?

Why have Dunderdale and the PCs become so toxic in not that long a period of time?

Not a good time for the NL NDP, they're in shambles at the moment.

Yeah. VOCM says a new election will have to be held this year, which is why I created an election thread in Hash's board. The PC leadership election will be held in April. It nearly happened when Williams retired but Dunderdale decided to stay on. Remember he was publicly distancing himself from her just months into the transition? Closest thing I can think of to the 3 premiers thing is the BC NDP, but that was over a longer period.

Why does the election have to be this year? Isn't it scheduled for Fall 2015? What does the law say?

http://www.assembly.nl.ca/business/bills/Bill0440.htm

Thanks Hash. Wonder if any other province has something like that. Seems a bit strange to me.

Thanks for that, Hash. Technically, the election could be held in Jan 2015, no? Most likely it will be in the Fall.

An interesting law; I've never heard of anything similar to that, but I like the idea of it.

Now, Fatima Houda-Pépin is in news and is saying than Couillard offered her a Cabinet job in the next Liberal government if she endorsed the Liberal position on religion. Liberal Party is denying.

Which would be even more ridiculous.

Hebert also thinks the tea leaves look good for an early election. (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/01/22/stars_aligning_for_marois_to_call_snap_quebec_election_hbert.html#)

Reminder of what happened last time a Canadian PM visited Israel. Laughingstock is an understatement. (http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/01/23/chris-selley-on-canadian-politicians-going-to-israel-our-glory-days-as-honest-broker/)

Country singer George Canyon will run for the CPC nomination in Bow River (http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/politics/Country+singer+George+Canyon+bids+Conservative+nomination/9426263/story.html)

Jean Crowder is retiring next year, as are Cotler and St. Denis. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-rally-team-aiming-to-win-back-party-strongholds-in-montreal/article16487373/) I've always thought (and heard rumblings) that Cotler wouldn't run again. St. Denis obviously wasn't running given the switch and health. I assume the Grits would like to line up a name candidate in one of their crown jewels, no idea who that might be.

They ought to get someone good now that they are legitimate contenders in power again. Safe seat for life is an attractive prospect.

Don't know if this was covered, but Manitoba Torries continue to trump the NDP (http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/#!/content/1.2477284). 

Woot, they're back tomorrow. Budget, contract negotiations and Ukraine. I guess the EC bill at some point this sitting too. Wonder how many Serious People beaks get tweaked or worse till June. More the merrier, right? :P

Budget 2 weeks from tomorrow.

CROP from last week: PLC up 40/28/17. (http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201401/21/01-4731102-sondage-crop-la-remontee-du-pq-se-confirme.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_vous_suggere_4731104_article_POS1) No regional breakdown so no idea what that translates to... my guess is Grits need a bit more for a Quebec seat majority. Yet Mulcair's still by far the most popular federal politician at 60% approval. While even sovereigntists are divided on BQ viability, there's still a core remaining.

Liberal incumbents will be renominated in a few weeks, purposefully frontloaded as part of a 3-stage nomination cycle.  (http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2014/01/27/liberals-to-hold-nominations-for-incumbent-mps-in-march-but-trudeau-still-has/37255)Again, open in name only.

Speaking of Mulcair is that Quebec NDP thing still in the works?

We're doing a poll as well, results should be out tomorrow, I'd say.

VIA's QC-Maritime service could be cancelled soon. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/via-rail-s-maritime-quebec-passenger-service-in-doubt-1.2513711?cmp=rss&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)

Considering that the freight service is being abandoned on that stretch of track, it doesn't really make much sense to keep low speed passenger rail on it.

True. If any service cuts make headlines next year it'll be Canada Post.

No shortage of potential social issues this year but as usual no one will touch them unless the courts mandate it. (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/01/27/parliament_has_a_long_todo_list_as_mps_return_hbert.html)

Charbonneau interim report gets released today. Won't discuss any charter stuff except to briefly mention that Bouchard warned about public opinion once someone gets fired and that the PLQ might as well endorse the whole thing.

This is beyond absurd: Trudeau said all Liberal senators will sit as Indies and if elected, he'll make "non-partisan" appointments.

Not only absurd, but a stone faced lie.

Poilievre correctly calls it a smokescreen, says senators will still be "unelected" and even more unaccountable. How will they organize themselves? I hope Poilievre makes great hay with this, as usual, in QP this afternoon.

Sadly the idiots in this country will probably eat it up as some great visionary policy/above-the-parties move/'working across the aisles' or whatever idiotic term(s) they hatch for this bullsh**t.

Biebertrudeau continues to be crap.

MSM seems to like it. Rules would have to be changed. The senators were naturally extremely pissed, or "a very difficult discussion" as JT put it. Hurts staffers too. Did I mention the Liberals opposed an NDP motion that proposed exactly what he did today, in October? Pathetic.

Oops, I hadn't heard the news- didn't realize he was doing this now.

It is kind of absurd, it's hard to keep the institution apolitical, especially if there are still Conservatives there. The Senate's not the Supreme Court, after all. In Canada though, it's possible to make the Senate somewhat apolitical, because the Supreme Court is appointed in a similar matter, and it is fairly apolitical. Canada is not the U.S. But what's to stop either institution from becoming political in the future, though?

Nothing. Senate has enough of a discipline problem already, as I've discussed. These Liberals are still Liberals in all but the most formal sense. Imagine a hypothetical minority PM Trudeau next year, with a Tory supermajority in the Senate and hostile ex-Liberals. Here's an idea for Senate "reform": Parliament Act equivalent. Override mechanism is long overdue.

Also, I'm disappointed in Trudeau's lack of vision - he says he doesn't want to re-open the constitution? What's wrong with that? The system's broken, let's fix it. At least Harper wants to fix it.

Easy solution: Let's have a referendum. Give Canadians 3 choices: Abolish, reform or maintain. Use AV to ensure one of the options gets a majority. Winning option gets a mandate for constitutional reform (or lackthereof).

The idea of a 'non-partisan' or 'independent' upper house is almost always retarded to begin with.

The cross bench doesn't make the UK upper house any more democratic.

The fact they are nominated for life makes them more apolitical, senators can oppose the will of their party without having to fear to lose next election.

On a unrelated subject, the longest-serving Quebec MNA and vice-Premier, was rushed to the hospital and hospitalized for chest pains, this morning.

For oakvale et al:

http://news.gc.ca/web/article-en.do?mthd=index&crtr.page=1&nid=812559

The Dear Leader is moving forward on implementing the most ridiculous of all ridiculous right-wing inanities: the "one-for-one rule".

Most likely it will be repealed in 2015, too.

This is serious! Less than half of his caucus was elected in 2011, the majority being unelected Senators, so he's shut out over half of his party's representation on the Hill!

Please recognize my greatness (or the disgusting copyright violation from Macleans).

http://www2.macleans.ca/2013/12/20/justin-bieber-vs-justin-trudeau/

Speaking of Bieber, he's been arraigned on assault charges in Toronto.

New EKOS out: 33.2/29.7/24.3

Told you we'd have a poll out :)

This is one I worked on. (Not the analysis though, so Hash- don't complain about spelling mistakes!)

Poll details: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2014/01/closer-race-as-parliament-begins-january-30-2014/

Obviously the best kind of nonsense ever peddled by a democratic government.

My favorite part of the throne speech other than "CANADA IS A NORTHERN COUNTRY".

Now they're fighting in public and are royally pissed at Trudeau.  (http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/01/31/justin-trudeau-has-no-authority-or-authorization-senators-reveal-crack-in-united-liberal-front-after-caucus-ouster/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter) ;D

Official transposition of the 2011 results on the new ridings now available by Elections Canada: http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=cir/trans2013&document=index&lang=e

Conrad Black has been stripped of his Order of Canada and PC by the government.

:D :D :D :D

Poilievre confirmed on The House that he'll table the Fair Elections Act next week. That's probably our only non-budgetary bill of consequence this sitting. :P

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/toronto-mayor-ticketed-for-jaywalking/story-fn3dxix6-1226815982956 (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/toronto-mayor-ticketed-for-jaywalking/story-fn3dxix6-1226815982956)

Rob Ford got ticketed for Jaywalking in Vancouver... I'm almost curious if the Toronto PD has some sort of tail on him now...

News are talking of the new prostitution bill (must be passed before December). Logically, it's for this sitting or the fall one?

Yves Ryan has died at 85.  (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/201402/02/01-4734845-lex-maire-de-montreal-nord-yves-ryan-est-mort.php)

PQ expects a spring election, not a winter one. Depends what happens with the budget. (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201402/01/01-4734621-des-elections-bientot-mais-pas-tout-de-suite.php) As I've said since the last election, fully expect Marois to win a second term. Question is majority or minority. I'm also tempted to believe that Couillard will lose his "leadership" (one Peq even compared him to Iggy in Le Devoir!) either through a PQ majority or like John Tory, losing his chosen seat.

Romanow doesn't like Sherbrooke.  (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2014/02/02/romanow-disagrees-with-ndp-says-50-plus-one-not-sufficient-to-break-up-country/#.Uu50EtCEiUk)

They can't find him a safe seat in Montreal?

He has Outremont, among the safest of safe seats, right now but wants an uphill battle in Roberval because he lives there. Strange considering he has no real geographic attachment like Charest with his hometown of Sherbrooke. Couillard has represented Montreal Island and Quebec City in the past.

Worse, he currently have one (he got elected in a by-election in Outremont), but he is insisting on running in the seat of Roberval, where he has his chalet. It would only his 4th riding in 6 years being an MNA. Mont-Royal (Montreal safe seat) 2003-2007. In 2007, he decided in run in Jean-Talon (Quebec City), but resigned within a year. And, new, he came back in Outremont and wants to run in Roberval (rural Lac-St-Jean).

That's just bizarre. Why'd he jump from Montreal to QC? If I had a safe seat like Mont-Royal, I'd camp out there till I was 90 :P

http://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/tangle-of-rules-and-procedures-strangles-federal-government-tweets-1.1667110 (http://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/tangle-of-rules-and-procedures-strangles-federal-government-tweets-1.1667110)

Conservative "small government" ideology at work, surely.

Finally a real Ontario poll, from Nanos (http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/01/31/ontario-poll-tim-hudak_n_4702925.html?utm_hp_ref=tw): Liberals lead 36/28/27. The Tories are at their lowest point since they were last in government. Though Greens are polling at 8, which probably wouldn't hold up in an election. Still, this is all MOE movement since last Nanos in November was 36/31/26.

Wierd. I expected PC to win the next election, but this is looking terrible for them. I suppose than Hudak will never be Ontario Premier, then. Ontarians don't seem to like him.

I'll pay attention if the writs are dropped. We have next week's by-elections as another barometer, though I'm pessimistic as always. Rae, Harris and McGuinty all lost before winning, ditto Harper federally. All except McGuinty won their victories on the trail. My own advice for the Tories would be to talk nonstop economy/jobs and forcefully defend their white papers when challenged. By jobs I don't mean mindless populist nonsense like that "Million Jobs Bill."

NPDQ is open for business. (http://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/francais/provincial/repaq/partis-politiques-details.php?p=00092) I'm not a fan of our fragmented party system to begin with, but curious to see how Ducasse makes out.

I can has polls?

I'm sure all 3 parties are taking internals to see how that works out. Also sure that the unions stick with the PQ. The party system hasn't been this fragmented since the Unionists faced a bunch of separatist then-microchallengers in the mid-'60s. Marois won't be a termite victim, but the PQ can't asphyxiate them either.

A bit've an Iggy situation? A Premier who no one really likes that much except the diehards, an opposition leader who people hate even more and a pretty popular NDP leader

I knew Ducasse would lead it.

They're not running in this upcoming election are they?

Elections bill out. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/election-reforms-would-bring-big-changes-to-campaign-spending-1.2522795) Brazeau and Harb have been charged with fraud and breach of trust. QP should be fun. (http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/national/Mounties+charge+Harb+Brazeau+Senate+expenses/9467085/story.html)

Cotler is retiring next year as expected

Anthony Housefather will run and be the next Grit MP from Mont-Royal (http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/02/05/irwin-cotler-retire-resign-step-down-liberal_n_4729653.html?utm_hp_ref=canada&ir=Canada&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter). Will miss Cotler, and had the privilege of meeting him a few years ago.

Housefather may be the next Grit to stand in the riding, but isn't it a bit premature to say he'll be the next MP?  That riding has election after election gone less and less Grit under Cotler.  He got 92% of the vote in 1999, 81% in 2000, 76% in 2004, 66% in 2006, 56% in 2008, and 41% in 2011.  That can't all be due to any personal unpopularity Cotler may have earned, or even the general decline in Liberal fortunes.  Not when the decline is of that magnitude and consistent from election to election.  Clearly Mont Royal has been trending Royal Blue.  Possibly not soon enough to keep Housefeather from being the next MP, but Housefeather will definitely have to be more than a mailbox.

He's one of the best they could've gotten. Certainly the best politician unless they wanted to go for a prominent person from outside politics, like Cotler and his 2 predecessors were. It certainly isn't Cotler himself. More the trends of Jews, Asians and Liberal fortunes generally. I doubt there will be a nomination contest, not that Housefather would need a fist on the scale like Freeland in Toronto Centre.

I can confirm than Irwin Cotler was very popular and respected by the local NDPers, too. His and his deep expertise on international law and human rights will be missed, as his well-known debating skills.

Poilievre will run in Rideau-Carleton, Baird in Nepean.  (http://www.ottawasun.com/2014/02/05/tory-mpp-poilievre-to-run-in-new-rideau-carleton-riding)

Quebec will raise the minimum wage from 10.15$ to 10.35$, on May 1st. Nothing really special, it happens on May 1st every year or other year.

Which is $9.14/hr to $9.32 is "real" dollars. ;)

CN strike will be pre-emptively shut down. 58-hour filibuster? (http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/cn-gets-strike-notice-feds-preparing-legislation-to-stop-walkout-1.1671512#ixzz2sUTg3sjh)

Strange, considering Baird's current district doesn't change at all. Nepean will be much more safe for him, though. Who will run in Ottawa West-Nepean? I suppose the Liberals could pick it up.

In other news, the 2 former NDP MHAs in Newfoundland that became independents due to concerns with leader Loraine Michael are now Liberals :(

I can't stand disloyal opportunists like these. If they'd stayed as independents, they may well have been turfed out by their constituents at the next election. As Liberals, especially given polling, they are more likely to hold their seats.

Completely unprincipled, disloyal opportunists.

So just how screwed are the federal Conservatives under PM Stephen Harper?  Is their majority a lost cause in 2015?   

Polls aside, we're doing fairly well for a government about to seek a fourth term. Sure the climate's not ideal but the economy's decent and psephology favours Harper. This will be his 5th campaign as party leader, first for the others. Anything could happen but I'd bet any money on Harper being PM 2 years from today.

Yeah, they're not exactly the flavour of the month, but this doesn't yet strike me as the 'dead-government-walking' that it probably should be at this point.

Even if the Conservatives focus on the jewish vote again, the Liberals won't do as badly this time.

A blog post on 308 website about Mont-Royal.
http://www.threehundredeight.com/2014/02/with-cotlers-departure-is-mount-royal.html (http://www.threehundredeight.com/2014/02/with-cotlers-departure-is-mount-royal.html)

More skirmishes between Clement and PSAC.  (http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/02/06/john-ivison-tony-clement-won-sick-days-skirmish-but-decisive-battle-with-unions-still-to-come/)PQ will soon produce a White Paper and start consultations on sovereignty. They would only pull the referendum trigger with ever-elusive winning conditions, obviously. (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201402/06/01-4736180-referendum-le-pq-ne-veut-pas-telegraphier-sa-strategie-a-ottawa.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B13b_politique-quebecoise_559_section_POS3) That's while they're throwing money around like Santa Claus in targeted regions, especially the Mauricie. Looks like a pre-campaign move but believe when seen, obviously.

Citizenship reform. (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201402/06/01-4736289-ottawa-veut-reformer-le-systeme-de-citoyennete-canadienne.php)

Somehow forgot to post this Tuesday: PQ's newest election scenario is an April 14 election with dissolution around March 12. Budget comes down early too in said scenario. (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201402/04/01-4735668-marois-tentee-par-un-scrutin-le-14-avril.php)

Our mayor kicks ass:

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Well, it is a stupid waste of time, but hardly worth changing one's vote over.

This is great

Watson is great on Twitter; he's always replied to me when I've made some funny comments.

He has a big gay following in the city, because the gay community knows something about him that most voters are probably unaware of (if you catch my drift).  My girlfriend likes to read the local queer newspaper, and there was a recent Q&A with the mayor about what kind of example closeted politicians set for gays. Kind of an awkward question.

But before anyone jumps on the Watson bandwagon, remember, he's still a vapid centrist, and a typical Liberal panderer. Council is stocked with his fanboys/girls.  I'm hoping there will be someone challenging him from the left in the upcoming election.

Grits will finally get around to some policy substance at their convention in 2 weeks. (http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/trudeau-s-economic-agenda-fleshed-out-in-caucus-proposals-for-liberal-convention-1.1676575)

I think it will be difficult for them to win a majority. They won about 54% of seats while the Liberals bombed. It's difficult to see where they could gain so it will be trying to limit losses. It looks very difficult to repeat the 2011 Ontario federal result of getting 44% of vote share while the other two parties get 25% each.

Interesting Ipsos poll: voters like Trudeau's Senate stunt but see it as just that, a stunt.  (http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/trudeau-s-attempt-at-senate-reform-popular-but-fails-to-boost-votes-poll-1.1677821) Topline is 33/29/27, Grits 38/28 among LV. Trudeau is PPM 42/34/24.

ONDP still playing  (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-ndp-winning-over-voters-with-less-policy-not-more/article16769719/)small ball, and CPC planning to make mischief at the LPC convention. (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/02/10/leaked_memo_from_conservatives_targets_justin_trudeau.html)

Nothing about the conservative election bill, Rogue? Or you are too ashamed to mention it?

I've been trying to keep posts down to a minimum here, but I'm certainly not ashamed of the bill.

Budget roundup. (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2014/02/11/tories-kiss-deficits-goodbye-build-up-fiscal-arsenal-ahead-of-2015-election/#.Uvqu1TaYbuh)

HI (Horrible Idea). Your commentary is how I keep informed of most Canadian news.

My budget reaction is the same as last year: meh.

Well, there is nothing new at all in that budget, expect a tobacco tax. Nothing new, which has pros and cons.

And I very much suspect we don't want the same things at all.

And I really don't how someone sane (which is what you are) can endorse a law forbidding Elections Canada to do sensibilisation in schools and banning them from doing turnout campaigns. It's a deliberate choice to lower turnout.

Poilievre said he'd look at excising that part, which was my objection to the bill.

Trying to reduce already increasingly low turnout sounds almost American.

Trudeau would keep corporate tax at its current 15%. (http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/399622/justin-trudeau-laisserait-l-impot-des-entreprises-a-15) Cue umpteen columns from a certain Postmedia man about how this proves JT's a fiscal conservative, or something.

I guess I'll just waste my vote and vote for whichever clown the NDP puts up here then. The Belieberals continue to be total crap.

I'll believe him if he does it.

But you musn't waste your vote! That will let the Tories win ;)


It does reek of what the Republicans are trying to do in the US. Luckily it wont be as bad, but still.

I have to LOL @ Trudeau's new slogan about "real solutions to create growth for the middle class." More vacuous pap, as usual.

Pandering to the middle class does nothing to prevent further alienating voters like me. (Not that I can be any more alienated from the Liberals)

QC budget will be next week, and they're still leaving the door slightly open for a March dissolution. In which case it'd be a mini-budget. (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201402/11/01-4737950-budget-light-des-la-semaine-prochaine.php)

Someone made a positive comment about Harper at work today... yeah it's not really news, but I'm a student and I live in Atlantic Canada, so it's news for me. :P

Flaherty's publicly doubting income splitting. I don't believe Flaherty quits unless it actually happens, but he's been acting a bit strangely recently. (http://affaires.lapresse.ca/dossiers/budget-federal-2014/201402/12/01-4738273-fractionnement-des-revenus-flaherty-seme-la-bisbille.php)

Trudeau: budgets balance themselves. (http://www.torontosun.com/2014/02/12/harper-calls-trudeaus-stance-on-eliminating-deficits-magical) In the same universe where Santa, the Easter Bunny and unicorns exist, undoubtedly.

Boo, hiss!!


This is good for the Tory narrative. Trudeau's airheadedness is astounding.

Either that or he's to Mulcair's left on budgeting, and we know which one it is. :P

Check out Andre Marin's Twitter feed now. He's going completely apesh**t on Rob Silver - and Marin personally Tweets most of the time.

There will be a spring Quebec election, with a minimalist budget next Thursday. (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201402/13/01-4738756-un-budget-le-20-fevrier-des-elections-ensuite.php) All that's left to decide is D-Day and E-Day. When that's known I'll put up the thread.

Horwath is ramping up pressure on the Grits, but still mum on an election. Grits don't feel they'll survive. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/horwath-cranks-up-pressure-on-wynne-but-mum-on-forcing-election/article16910092/)

Oh FFS, socons will vote for Kenney at the appropriate time regardless of his marital status. (http://www.canada.com/news/national/know+Jason+Kenney+future+leader+future+kingmaker/9509996/story.html)

So Trudeau's big economic plan is a spending orgy in areas of provincial jurisdiction.  (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/montreal-convention-will-test-trudeaus-improvement/article16913533/) Which is exactly what Paul Martin did.

Yeah, Poilievre's one of our MVPs. (http://adf.ly/dciil)

Most valuable prick? The man is a tool, and the last press conference I saw him in (the rebuttal to Trudeau's Senate shakeup) he was just terrible at attacking Trudeau and defending the Tory position. This is when I actually agreed with the Conservatives on something.

Yeah, Poilievre has always come off as an insufferable useless hack/prick to me and I don't get why everybody loves him now. Probably because the idiot media love "young politicians" who are gonna "shake things up"

If the Conservative MVP is a tape recorder, it's not going well for them.

Mexican visa restrictions will remain in place.  (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/stephen-harper-won-t-drop-visa-rule-for-mexicans-source-says-1.2538820)

How Heenan Blaikie imploded. (http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/02/14/how-heenan-blaikies-stunning-collapse-started-with-a-rogue-african-arms-deal/)

Ontario poll from Ipsos: (http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-tories-take-slight-lead-over-liberals-ndp-poll-1.1689261) 34/31/31 among all voters, 37/33/27 among LV. 60/40 wrong track, 32/31/28 preferred premier. Being Ipsos, they also include regional numbers. Seat guesstimate, anyone?

I wonder if Central Ontario = 705 and Northern Ontario = 807. If so, then their regional descriptors are very misleading.

Good to see the NDP ahead in SW Ontario. Outside of Windsor and maybe London, it's not exactly the most traditional NDP part of the province. The traditional NDP areas are downtown Toronto and Northern Ontario, but I suspect the NDP is struggling in DT Toronto from those numbers. If the Liberals slip to third province-wide, I expect Toronto voters to start swinging en masse to the NDP.

NDP is 3rd (43L/29C/26N) in 416 and 905 (48C/28L/20N).

Here are some 519 (SW Ontario) ridings that I think the NDP would pick up with those numbers:

Windsor West (duh)
London North Centre
Brant
Guelph
Kitchener Centre
Cambridge
Sarnia-Lambton

Distant possibilities (rural seats):
Perth-Middlesex (strong campaign in Stratford could swing it)
Huron-Bruce (previous target in 2011)
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound (strong Green presence in the past, could switch to the NDP)


Yes, I noticed that. But, if the Libs drop to 3rd province-wide, I expect a 3 way race in the 416. The 905 will always be a write off for the NDP, except for Hamilton, parts of Niagara, Bramalea-Gore-Malton and maybe Oshawa.

They don't specify if the regional # are under the regular or LV screen. Suspect the former. Either way, good news for both our parties. Question is whether Horwath pulls the trigger.

I'm hoping the Liberals will realize the huge threat of their downfall, and give the NDP huge concessions to stay in power.

Transit tax, full Liberal term, possibility of triggering an election which results in a Tory win (even with an NDP OO) all factor in. I'll believe an election when I see someone roll that die.

How come Windsor West isn't NDP-held?

Terrible candidate last election.

Horwath just called Wynne's bluff.  (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/02/18/horwath_dares_wynne_to_force_election_over_taxes_and_tolls.html)

Now this is downright hilarious: PLQ might bring back Charest if Marois gets a majority. (http://www.canada.com/news/Macpherson+Jean+Charest+still+sounds+like+leader/9516881/story.html)

Speaking of which: Assnat will be dissolved March 11 for an April 14 election. (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201402/17/01-4739865-elections-les-voyants-sont-au-vert-pour-marois.php) Marois is now in majority territory per CROP: 40/34/16. Marois leads 30/22 on best premier.

Wynne says there will be transit taxes in the budget. Hudak: Ontarians want an election, and it's unfortunate that the premier sees Ontarians as revenue tools.

Zach Paikin is running against Chris Charlton in Hamilton-West-Ancaster-Dundas next year. (http://www.ipolitics.ca/2014/02/18/a-paikin-for-the-takin/)

For those who are interested: the policy resolutions that have been submitted to the LPC's convention. (https://convention.liberal.ca/2014-policy-resolutions/)  One that jumped out to me was number 97, calling for a trial of a guaranteed income supplement.

Are you sure Charlton is running in this riding? It doesn't say this in your link. Why would she run here when her current Hamilton Mountain riding has undergone only minor changes and is more NDP-leaning?

Beat me to it. That would be incredibly stupid if she runs there.

So, the Paikins are Liberal? Makes sense, I guess. I wish TVO would hire non partisan journalists...

That's what it said earlier IIRC. Either way he loses. :P

Is there such a thing in political journalism? :P

Hmm, that suggests maybe they realized it was a mistake.

Anyway, Zach Paikin and Steve Paikin are not the same person and Paikin Sr. should not have to resign from journalism just because his son is running for office. Maybe he shouldn't moderate the debate this time around though, which is a pity, since he's been good at it.

Not necessarily.

Transposed results:

Cons: 42%
NDP: 28%
Lib: 25%

Suburban Hamilton tends to be a bellwether, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals win it.

Ipsos has 37L/29C/24N nationally. (http://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/politics/liberal-lead-jumps-to-8-points-canadians-shrug-off-budget-poll-1.1695050)

That would almost be enough for a majority, if it were not for the Tories pulling ahead in BC. Difficult to get a majority when you're on the nose pretty much everywhere West of Ontario.

Meanwhile, we have the Tories in third in BC :S

Doubtful. Lead is too small and as always, highly inefficient vote. Meanwhile they're slipping in another key area: regional Quebec, and trail the NDP 32/27 among Francophones provincewide. (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201402/19/01-4740250-les-liberaux-en-perte-de-vitesse-au-quebec.php)

Latest Ipsos Reid poll

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Things to note:

1) The Tories are at 12% in Atlantic Canada
2) The Grits are at almost 40% in Alberta!

Ipsos is excellent, but I have trouble believing Alberta and Atlantic. Angus-Reid has 33L/28C/26N among EV, 32C/31L/28N among LV.

In other news, Hiebert will retire next year. Said he never intended to be a career pol. Might also be knowing he won't rise higher, and I wouldn't be surprised to see others do the same. Cabinet personnel won't change substantially for the next while barring Flaherty's retirement. Leadership pool is also well-established.

If Harper did that it would be called preplanned fakery.  (http://www2.macleans.ca/2014/02/20/a-glimpse-into-justin-trudeaus-impressive-instinct-for-the-camera/)

Grits are moving tilting to port economically, gives us a bigger target. (http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/02/21/john-ivison-why-justin-trudeaus-new-guiding-light-could-have-a-dramatic-impact-on-canadian-public-policy/)

Meanwhile Hudak has said RTW will not be in the Tory platform.

Bringing in Larry Summers to talk about stimulus is moving "leftward" from where the Liberals were? Some of these journalists haven't left the 1990's.

Kenney's made the key Jobs Grant concession demanded by the provinces. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-agrees-to-provinces-main-demands-on-canada-job-grant/article17025856/)

Nanos has 34L/29C/23N nationally. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nanos-federal-liberals-5-points-ahead-of-conservatives-1.2546798?cmp=rss)

Forgot to mention it, but Friday was the 40th anniversary of Tim Horton's death.  (http://www.torontosun.com/2014/02/22/tim-hortons-business--and-the-legend--still-thrive) :(

Trudeau thinks Russia might invade Ukraine because they lost in hockey. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6HagDL7giI) In case anyone doubted he's in way over his head... but also continuing in the family foreign affairs tradition.

I for one welcome our teen popstar overlord.

So Justin Bieber is the secret leader of the Liberals?  Who knew?  Still, I think a fair share of this forum would say that Bieber would do a better job as Canadian PM than Steven Harper.

Flaherty says he's undecided about running next year. (http://) Obviously he won't confirm one way or the other until just before the election... but a marked departure from his previous vehement insistence that he's running again. For all intents and purposes (since no one will ever remotely equal Fielding's 20 years) he'll be the longest-serving finance minister next year.

Trudeau has apologized to the Ukrainian Canadian Congress. In related news, his economic pitch is BS. (http://www2.macleans.ca/2014/02/24/after-trudeaus-warning-about-middle-class-discontent-a-look-at-income-trends/)

Conflicting reports on whether the premiers have accepted the Jobs Grant from CBC and Globe.

Tories are courting Cannon (too old IMO) and a bunch of PLQ/CAQ candidates for next year. (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201402/26/01-4742881-lawrence-cannon-courtise-par-les-conservateurs.php)

Darshan Kang (MLA for Calgary-McCall) will run for the federal Liberal nomination in Calgary Skyview for 2015 (http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/politics/Calgary+Liberal+taking+federal+seat/9555617/story.html)

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Wildrose is out in front again.

More important that Wildrose leading provincially is Wildrose leading in all geographic areas.

What I find surprising is PC third in Edmonton!? What's the sample size?

Under 40, but looking good for a poll not even halfway through this term. I'd love nothing more than to see them obliterated.

Jobs Grant has now been secured. On another note, I find it pathetic that the Laurentians who crapped all over Preston Manning when he was in politics are now selectively quoting him against Poilievre.

Why? Like everybody, sometimes he is wrong, sometimes, he is right. And he is right about the lack of transparency and the evilness of the voter suppression strategy.

But, true, like ecologists, Manning is anti-patriotic, now?

When have I ever said Manning is disloyal for expressing his views?

No, but I'm quite sure than some on your side think it.

Sample size of the whole poll was 1000, with 806 decided voters.  The Edmonton sample size was 266 (compared to 275 in Calgary and 264 in the rest of Alberta).

http://www.leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/AB%20Provincial%20Poll%20-%20February%2028%202014.pdf

In terms of all 1000 people polled, the results were as follows:

Wildrose: 28%
PC: 17%
NDP: 11%
Liberal: 10%
Alberta Party: 2%
Others: 1%
Undecided: 24%
Don't know/Wouldn't vote: 8%

As an active PCer, I'm obviously viewing this with a strong bias.  However, when I saw this, I was reminded of a poll from 2010 that showed 42% Wildrose to 27% PC.  We've pulled ourselves back from being this low in the polls before, and in the same timeframe.  It will certainly be tough, but considering that this poll was conducted after the media has been hounding the government over expenses related to government plane usage for the better part of two months, things could be a lot worse.

Something else of note: assuming that this poll is correct, the Wildrose has gained very little support from the PCs since the election.  The majority of PC losses in the polls seem to be related to gains by the Liberals and New Democrats.  The WRP, according to this, has only gained about 4 points, compared to a combined 11 points for the NDP and Liberals.

It looks like Environics disagrees. (http://www.environics.ca/uploads/Image/Environics_-_Focus_Alberta_Feb_2014_Mood_of_the_Province_-_March_4_2014.pdf)

PC: 36
WRP: 33
ALP: 18
NDP: 12

Toews gets his judgeship. (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2014/03/07/vic-toews-gets-seat-on-manitoba-bench/#.UxpdmtCEiUl)

Unfortunately, Harper and Poilievre will wave Chong's bill through.  (http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/03/06/john-ivison-mp-confident-harper-will-not-block-passage-of-reform-act-that-would-reduce-pms-power/)

That would make for some interesting results.

Speaking of Alberta... Redford's starting to be on borrowed time. That outfit is just as trigger-happy as the PQ. (http://www.calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/Braid+High+flying+premier+lands+pile+trouble/9583989/story.html) Ironic considering expense abuse is probably their mildest form of corruption.

Definitely.  Judging by the regional samples, I could see the PCs holding on to their majority, but if they were to do so then it would be much closer than in 2012.  They seem to be doing a decent job of holding their ground in Calgary, Edmonton, and the rural north.  However, it looks like the WRP would pick up a fair amount of the remaining rural PC seats in southern and central Alberta.  Seats in the province's smaller cities could be interesting to watch as well.  The PC's hold most of the seats where small cities make up at least part of the riding population, but if enough PC voters from the last election were to move over to other parties, then these would be vulnerable.  Notably, there's a decent chance of Lethbridge-West going NDP, and an outside chance of Red Deer-North going Liberal, depending on how the voters ultimately vote.



Don Braid is certainly loving this; it's giving him lots of catchy headlines for him column.  But the PO does need to get its act together. 

I can only imagine the reaction if Toews were appointed to the Supreme Court.  (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/former-conservative-public-safety-minister-vic-toews-named-to-manitoba-court/article17368609/)

Corporate Research Associates did their quarterly poll of Atlantic Canada. Change from last quarter's poll are in brackets.

Newfoundland
Liberal: 53% (+1)
Progressive Conservative: 33% (+4)
NDP 13% (-6)

New Brunswick
Liberal: 43% (-4)
Progressive Conservative: 31% (+6)
NDP 21% (-3)
Green 4% (-)
People's Alliance 1 (-)

PEI
Liberal: 53% (+4)
NDP 22% (-4)
Progressive Conservative: 17% (-)
Green 7% (-)

They usually release one province each day, so I expect the Nova Scotia results will be out Monday. Some comments:

1) The Newfoundland Tories just got a leader, so I doubt their uptick in support will last.
2) The swing to the NB Tories is more likely to stick, though they still have a lot of ground to make up if they want to win in October.
3) The NB NDP have declined some, but they should still establish a beachhead in the next election (maybe 4-5 seats)
4) The PEI NDP in 2nd last quarter was not a fluke! I have no idea how that support will translate into seats though.

If that was the result in PEI, I think it would result in the Liberals winning every seat. The NDP could win one if the leader was popular (like 1996).

Well, they should focus only on their leader seat for now, to try to get someone in the Assembly.

Nova Scotia
Liberal: 60% (+2)
Progressive Conservative: 20% (+1)
NDP: 18% (-1)
Green: 1% (-2)

Still in the honeymoon period I guess.

Laurie Hawn is retiring next year. (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2014/03/10/veteran-edmonton-tory-mp-wont-run-again/#.Ux5E8I2YaYN)

In case anyone doubted "open" LPC nominations are a joke. (http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/candidacy-of-ex-mps-wife-blocked-over-bullying-complaints/)

Alberta PC executive meets tomorrow, no one really knows what they'll do next. (http://www.calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/Braid+Stunned+MLAs+unsure+next+move/9615729/story.html) My guess is nothing, for now.

The Tories would be wise to dump Redford. I can't see them winning with her as leader.

I hope she stays. A Wildrose earthquake would be the sweetest provincial victory of all for me.

Who'd ever think treating your caucus like crap could end badly?  (http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/03/14/alison-redfords-greatest-weakness-is-that-shes-not-a-nice-lady/)

A bit misogynistic

That's certainly the feeling that a couple commentators out here have been getting from this situation.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/opinion/op-ed/Lakritz+Double+standard+takes+wing+Redford+Klein/9610511/story.html (http://www.calgaryherald.com/opinion/op-ed/Lakritz+Double+standard+takes+wing+Redford+Klein/9610511/story.html)

http://www.calgaryherald.com/Klassen+Attacks+Redford+about+gender/9598527/story.html (http://www.calgaryherald.com/Klassen+Attacks+Redford+about+gender/9598527/story.html)



At this point, I don't either.  But at the same time, I don't get the feeling that we're up for another leadership contest.



I'm not sure how accurate these allegations are.  Keep in mind that Webber's never been a friend of the premier's.  In fact, he was pretty vocally trying to get people to vote against her in the leadership review at our last AGM.

They've put her on undisclosed probation.  (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alison-redford-gets-work-plan-from-pcs-after-brutal-talks-1.2574198)

On a bit of a lighter note, here's yet another demonstration of SUN news' quality of journalism:

()

It was a good guess, but that gentleman is Jim McCormick, President of PC Alberta.  I believe that Dave Hancock's in the back somewhere, behind a few people.

I had emailed the federal Infrastructure Minister about the decision to put a toll on the Champlain bridge. I have received a reply three months later. He says sorry for the delay. I guess it's true governments are slow.

Confirmed that Baird will run in Nepean. (http://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2014/03/17/baird-to-run-in-new-riding-of-nepean-other-parties-see-his-old-riding-as-winnable/37870?page_requested=1)

L+1 (in Ottawa West-Nepean)?

With Deb Coyne? Also, hoping for an election next spring due to the many provincials that fall. IIRC Harper hinted as much.

Zach Paikin is a "Liberal star?" WTF? Anyways, he's quitting his race and giving rigged nominations as his reason. (http://o.canada.com/news/zach-paikin-quits-hamilton-race/)

If it is changed tp Spring I hope he has all parties support publicly because if not it will look like he is not respecting the rules.

BREAKING: Jim Flaherty has resigned. Says he's returning to the private sector.

Wow. Who will be the Finance Minister now?

Clement is the logical choice, with an outside shot of Kenney.

His replacement will be sworn in tomorrow.

Looks like MacDougall was right: it will be Oliver, per CBC. Hopefully just till the election. So who replaces Oliver at Natural Resources?

Here's the link. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/joe-oliver-to-replace-jim-flaherty-as-finance-minister-1.2577648)

Do we really need one? Harper policy is letting the corporations do as they want. He could abolish it while pretneding to cut red tape.

Allison Redford is going to make an announcement at 8pm

No questions. So reshuffle or more apologies IMO.

Well, we need an oil salesman and somebody to peddle the pipelines.

Sounds to me like a resignation.

That's the Twitterverse rumour too. I hope Albertans don't fall for this in 2016.

And she's resigning.

Good riddance.

It's shameful that she had to leave in this manner.  I just hope that the debate can return to policy, rather than the WRP carrying on about negligible expense issues.

As expected, speculation is already starting on who will run to replace her.  Stephen Mandel, Jim Dinning, Dave Hancock, Doug Horner, Jim Prentice, Gary Mar, and Thomas Lukaszuk have all had their names thrown around as potential contenders.  Supposedly Nenshi didn't give a firm 'no' when a reporter asked if he would run, but regardless, I doubt that a candidacy by him would go over really well.

Nenshi as leader would be um... interesting. I'd vote for him if I lived in his district.

PC's elect new leader, win another election leader gets booted. Rinse, repeat.

So who's in line for the throne?

According to Calgary Herald reporters' comments on twitter, Hancock and Griffiths have both said that they won't run for premier.  Presumably, this means that Hancock will take the interim premier position until a new leader is selected.

Yes, Hancock will be Premier.

A CROP poll for federal voting intentions in Quebec.

LPC 33%
NDP 31
Bloc 18
CP 13

(franco NDP 35, LPC 28, Bloc 21, CP 13)

Best PM: 27% Trudeau, 26% Mulcair, 12% Harper
30% satisfied with the government


http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201403/19/01-4749419-sondage-le-npd-talonne-les-liberaux-de-trudeau.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_lire_aussi_4740223_article_POS1 (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201403/19/01-4749419-sondage-le-npd-talonne-les-liberaux-de-trudeau.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_lire_aussi_4740223_article_POS1)

The supreme court blocks the appointment of Marc Nadon as supreme court justice.

From all possible judges and lawyers, the government had to pick someone who is not eligible.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/scc-blocks-harper-s-appointment-of-marc-nadon-1.1739280 (http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/scc-blocks-harper-s-appointment-of-marc-nadon-1.1739280)

Another defeat for Harper in Federal Court, about medical marijuana.

New rules, starting April 1st, would end the system of sick people producing themselves the marijuana they use, to replace it by a system where corporations would produce it and sell it.

Federal Court granted an injunction letting the current producer-user system legal until the courts decides (probably in 2015).

Not to sound like BRTD here, but I went to the strip club (for lunch) that Senator Brazeau manages during the day, and he was indeed there. :)

Leaving aside the whitewash of how Chretien got ousted, for once I strongly agree with Kinsella. Treat caucus the way you want them to treat you.  (http://warrenkinsella.com/2014/03/in-sundays-sun-of-nice-guys-and-politics/#comments)

More Laurentian tears, though nothing Mulroney didn't say in his memoirs.  (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2014/03/23/mulroney-castigated-trudeau-over-meech/#.Uy81-NBzaUn) 15 months from now should be interesting.

Angus-Reid: 33/32/26 LPC among LV. (http://www.angusreidglobal.com/polls/48934/liberals-lead-conservatives-among-eligible-voters-different-story-among-likely-voters/)

I'm sure Horwath will find an excuse for abstention. (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/03/24/next_liberal_budget_could_force_ndps_hand_says_insider.html)

Insert snark, JT will have a memoir out this fall. (http://www.news1130.com/2014/03/25/liberal-leader-justin-trudeau-to-publish-candid-memoir-in-english-and-french/)

I thought you needed to accomplish something before having memoirs published? #inoverhishead

His rationale when asked is that voters still have questions and want to know more about him.  (http://www.ctvnews.ca/qp/inside-ottawa-news-and-notes-from-parliament-hill-1.1472908)You don't usually see this much fluff outside of bedding stores. I liked Mulcair's line about waiting another 15 years.

If the Liberals poll third in seats next year, being party leader of the third largest political party may be his highest pinnacle of success...  Perhaps his memoirs are not out of synch with his career progression...

That would be rather hilarious. Chretien, Iggy and Layton all wrote pre-campaign memoirs, but they'd accomplished a lot before writing them.

Will it be a pop-up book?

I'm sure the ghost will pop up eventually. I'll probably skim the book in a bookstore, but no purchase. I only buy prime ministerial memoirs. ;)

Who really wants to read boring platitudes?

Quite a few people, in this case. My guess is plenty of soft-focus stuff, not that certain media needs too much prompting.

I suspect the real reason is the slide revealed in the latest poll... As the honeymoon draws to a close, they need something to keep him in the news - and let's face it, the bump they received was based entirely on personality, not policy, so something like this is what is required to continue focusing attention on the Derek Zoolander of Canadian politics.

He's been quite consistently in the low to mid 30s since becoming leader. Throwing himself down some stairs, taking his shirt off or swearing in the House... none of those things require ghostwriters. I used the LV numbers, but eligible voters haven't changed at all since the last A-R poll. 33/28/27 now, 33/28/26 then. Still white noise till the writs are dropped, needless to say.

Clement has reached a deal with the PEUs.  (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/public-sector-feds-reach-deal-on-retiree-health-benefits-1.2586998)

Interesting nomination brouhaha in Oakville but doubt it amounts to much. I agree with what Bellevance said on PP: no such thing as a truly open nomination.  (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2014/03/26/tories-mad-over-perceived-nomination-meddling/#.UzN0wI1OXIU) Trudeau caused himself needless grief by pretending there was.

Fletcher wants to reopen the euthanasia debate.  (http://globalnews.ca/news/1232112/manitoba-conservative-mp-fletcher-plans-right-to-die-bill/)

oakville is not in mississauga

Some lying Grit hacks are trying to insinuate that Megan Leslie's a truther (http://meganleslie.ndp.ca/ae-911-truth-national-tour) or promoting trutherism. No reading comprehension, since they didn't read the disclaimer.

The NS Liberals are eliminating interest on the provincial portion of student loans. (http://thechronicleherald.ca/novascotia/1196551-nova-scotia-eliminates-interest-on-student-loans)

Not a fan of this plan, but it should be interesting to see how it plays out.

Prediction: It won't affect whether more kids pursue post-secondary education.

I'm sure this comes as no surprise, but Rob Anders is being...well, himself again. (http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/politics/Anders+apologizes+wrongly+labelling+temporary+Tory/9673740/story.html)

Julia Gillard is in town to speak at the Progress Summit.

Broadbent Institute should be ashamed for inviting that bigot.

She didn't even discuss SSM, rather carbon taxes. (http://www.ipolitics.ca/2014/03/29/julia-gillards-advice-to-canada-putting-a-price-on-carbon-is-possible/) One of our attack centrepieces next year on both opposition parties.

On another subject, Redford loved her opulence.  (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alison-redford-ordered-penthouse-suite-in-federal-building-1.2589713)

So, you are agreeing with letting companies pollute the air without having to pay anything?

Personally, I think than Redford should be prosecuted for embezzlement.

Indeed, inviting her was questionable in the very least. Lots of NDPers on fb/twitter are gushing over getting to hear her. Rather disappointing.

More Gazpalooza (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/wynne-threatens-hudak-with-legal-action-over-power-plant-allegations/article17729530/) in Ontario. (http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/03/29/spring_election_in_the_air_over_gasplant_stench_cohn.html)

Trudeau at Fight for the Cure: (http://blogs.ottawacitizen.com/2014/03/30/justin-trudeau-drops-f-bomb-at-charity-event/) “All the — your name, your fortune, your intelligence, your beauty — none of that fycking matters.” I'm very open to political cussin', but wrong context IMO. Needs to be amusing and/or original. Brings back memories of Freeland's "job your father had" own goal last year.

Soudas out as CPC exec director because as one wag put it, he put bedroom before boardroom.  (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/dimitri-soudas-out-as-conservative-party-executive-director-1.2592198)One of our best operatives but the consequence is appropriate IMO.

Ontario budget docs leaked to the Tories. (http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/04/01/secret_documents_point_to_bigspending_ontario_liberal_budget.html)

Conservatives sounded really incompetent, today, when Harper claimed than they were surprised about than the appoitment rules for Quebec judges at Supreme Court were different than those for other Supreme judges.

MacKay sounded even more silly by defending Harper by saying than the rule was new. It was created in 1875, so, not really new.

This week's Political Traction: 43% national, 10% Ottawa for Ukraine, 42% national, 22% Ottawa for #qc2014, 15% national and 68% Ottawa for FEA. None surprising except, pleasantly, Ukraine nationally.

On a lighter note, who's everyone's favourite premier of your respective province? Mine's in my sig.

One FEA amendment will be a vouching compromise. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/pierre-poilievre-open-to-changing-controversial-election-measure-1.2594721?cmp=rss&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter)

Pre-Confederation: Joseph Howe
Post-Confederation: Bob Stanfield

If Horwath does an about-face and topples Wynne, ON vote could be June 26. Since Horwath probably won't do that, Star scoop is moot. (http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/04/01/june_26_election_looms.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter)

Mike Harcourt has quit the BC NDP, citing energy policy and James' ouster as reasons. (http://www.canada.com/news/Vaughn+Palmer+Mike+Harcourt+abandons+shocking+many/9688006/story.html)

Harper orders a party investigation into Adams' alleged abuse of CIMS. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/eve-adams-riding-fight-pm-asks-party-to-investigate-new-allegations-1.2595485) If found guilty he should deny her renomination or boot her from caucus. One Guergis was bad enough, we don't need another.

Probably Peter Lougheed

Jean Lesage.

Adams sure sounds like Guergis II. (http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/04/02/how-eve-adams-alarm-bells-first-started-ringing-in-pmo-after-refund-row-over-6-car-wash/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)

No need to expell her, with those news, she shouldn't win the nomination election in Oakville-North Burlington.

Hopefully not, whether by vote or Harper's veto.

Favourite Premier: Ernest Drury, I guess.

Harper under pressure to fire Adams as Ambrose's PS and bar her from nomination. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/eve-adams-nomination-scrap-a-test-case-for-tory-grassroots-1.2596311)

Ugh, simply disgusting. (http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/families-of-fallen-soldiers-invited-to-ottawa-service-must-pay-own-way-1.1758517)

Woot, Wall's still at 2/3 approval. (http://www.angusreidglobal.com/polls/48941/amidst-provincial-political-upheaval-walls-job-approval-is-highest-in-canada-2/)

How about favorite obscure premier? I'm a fan of Boss Johnson

Interesting take on a possible progressive counteroffensive to move the Overton window. (http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/which-way-forward-for-progressives/)

OLP sees NDP as their major threat: not fear of Premier Horwath but a soft progressive split enabling Premier Hudak. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-hope-to-fixate-voters-on-an-ndp-free-dichotomy/article17820860/) Team Dithers.

Wynne's serving Hudak and MacLeod with libel notices. From what I've read, it probably won't get to court before the next election. (http://www.newstalk1010.com/news/2014/04/04/breaking-premier-serves-pc-leader-mpp-with-libel-notice)

Hilarious: Dad's people mad at Wynne for distancing herself, she's pissed at them for leaving her this wreckage. (http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/04/04/gasplant_scandal_exposes_liberal_rifts.html) Strangler/Dithers all over again, exact same spin too: we're a new gang going for a first term, not the same old folks with a few new faces going for a fourth. Not surprising given that Dithers' gang (Herle and Murphy among others) is so prominent at the OLP. As I've said before, if '11 is their '04, opposition parties gotta follow our '05-'06 strategy to finish them off.

Can we get some 06 style gaffes? I really want to hear someone talking about soldiers in our streets again.

Looks like National Council will settle for an Adams reprimand and let the riding deal with her. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/mp-could-learn-fate-this-week/article17869106/)

Fraser and Manning will be testifying on the FEA. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/preston-manning-sheila-fraser-to-testify-on-elections-bill-1.2601517)

BQ leadership race kicks off tomorrow, results in 6 weeks. (http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2014/04/08/005-course-direction-bloc-lancement.shtml?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)

Something tells me Poilievre and Mayrand won't be exchanging Christmas cards anytime soon. (http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/poilievre-s-attack-on-chief-electoral-officer-vicious-totally-inappropriate-1.1766260)

Another abortion motion from Woodworth.  (http://www.cbc.ca/newsblogs/politics/inside-politics-blog/2014/04/stephen-woodworth-to-seek-house-consent-for-vote-on-new-human-being-motion.html)

Soudas was even more involved than previously thought. Banned from any executive power for 5 years or thereabouts, IMO. . (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/04/08/dimitri_soudas_had_early_involvement_in_eve_adams_campaign_notes_suggest.html)

EKOS Ontario: OLP 32, NDP 30, PC 27. (http://www.ipolitics.ca/2014/04/09/its-still-anybodys-race-in-ontario/) Waiting for Ipsos.

()

Updated map of provincial general elections

:D Very cool. You should put the Yukon ridings in too.

Awesome work!

Fife reports that Adams has been  (https://twitter.com/RobertFife/status/454087495102115841) reprimanded by National Council but not disqualified. (https://twitter.com/RobertFife/status/454086982860165120) Still hope she's denied that nomination.

I would have, but I couldn't find any of the territorial riding shapefiles, and Elections Yukon hasn't gotten back to me yet. Didn't feel like mucking around

Brazeau's been arrested again for assault, cocaine and death threats. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/patrick-brazeau-suspended-senator-arrested-in-gatineau-1.2605159)

BQ will elect a leader June 14. (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201404/09/01-4756120-le-bloc-quebecois-elira-un-chef-le-14-juin.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B13b_politique-canadienne_560_section_POS3)

Harper has given the green light for his Ontarians to campaign provincially. (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201404/09/01-4756200-ottawa-a-loeil-sur-queens-park.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B13b_politique-canadienne_560_section_POS2)

You Canadians do seem to be going out of your way to have entertaining political collapses of late.  I can't see a movie being made of this tho.  Suspended Senator taking job as day manager of a strip club?  Too unbelievable!

BREAKING: Jim Flaherty has died, multiple networks reporting. RIP. :(

Commons has been suspended for the day.

Here's a link. (http://globalnews.ca/news/1263247/jim-flaherty-passes-away-at-63-reports/)

I'm very shocked by that event, obviously. Reminds me of Claude Béchard, a few years ago.

I pretty much never agreed with him, but, death is always a sad thing. No doubt he always did what he thought was the best for Canada and his legacy will continue to affect Canada for a long moment.

RIP.

Terribly sad. RIP.

I'm shocked. Very sad.

On another subject, if Adams is found to have exceeded her spending limit she'll be disqualified. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/eve-adams-riding-fight-mp-warned-to-behave-but-allowed-to-run-for-now-1.2605026)

On a personal level, Flaherty must have been a truly great man, to have brought people like Mulcair and Charlie Angus to tears.

Flaherty's getting a state funeral.

Ken Hughes becomes 1st candidate to enter race for Leader of PC Alberta (http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Hughes+first+enter+leadership+race/9728625/story.html)

Later tonight, we should know if Conservative MP Rob Anders is reselected for Calgary-Signal Hill. He faces an high-profile PC MLA.

It's called a race between the two wings of the Alberta CPC, but Rob Anders issues should be kept in mind (falling asleep, calling Mandela a terrorist, saying than Mulcair caused the death of Layton....)

Polls are now closed.

The rumor is than delays are caused by recount(s).

Preliminary number I'm seeing on Twitter is Anders 1382-1377.

Now conflicting reports about who won.

But Calgary Herald is saying than Liepert won.

No, that's a draft with both outcomes. Or as Paul Fairie put it on Twitter, "Dewey Defeats Truman/Truman Defeats Dewey." Maclean's actually did that in '57 with a Liberal majority editorial.

Now, we have CBC Calgary twitter feed, too (but, with the cuts, they probably covering it by reading Twitter).

My reaction is meh. On one hand no more Anders, on the other a Red replacing a Blue in Alberta. So hoping for a Blue challenge in '19.

Well, let's me honest, it's not Liepert winning, it's Anders losing.

Must I remember than Conservatives automatically reselected incumbents in the last elections (this time, it's only because of redistricting)?

This is the greatest news!

In other good news, voters in Kitimat rejected the Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipeline plebiscite 58-42% :)

In other AB news: Rajotte still contemplating a PC leadership bid, but waiting on Mandel and Prentice.  (http://www.canada.com/news/politics/Alberta+James+Rajotte+takes+wait+approach+Tory+leadership/9730609/story.html) Nomination battle I really care about is Edmonton-St. Albert.

Majority government. Incumbents are automatically reselected in a minority.

Good riddance to the worst specimen of human scum.

My thoughts exactly. Even if you're a blue Tory, one should be ashamed of such an asshat.

Anyway, we now have an excellent new euphemism. 'Returning to the private sector' = 'I am dying'.

The issue is than it's apparently not the plan. He had health issues, which weren't heart issues and if he was dying, logically, he would be in his Whitby home with his wife, not in his Ottawa residence near Parliament (when his wife works in Toronto).

Is Rob Anders "returning to the private sector"?

No, if he were human scum, we would've given him the Order of Canada.

Details, schmetails.

I'm a big fan of James Rajotte. If he won the leadership, I'd have to seriously consider my provincial party support.

But, as you say, the real nomination of interest is Edmonton-St Albert, and I have my fingers crossed for a good result there.

Now we just need to get rid of the Member for Vancouver East.

What's wrong with Libby Davies? I would've thought the most hated NDPer would be Pat Martin.

He's certainly my most hated NDPer :P

I haven't had any personal interactions with her, but from what I've heard, she's very intolerant of conservatives generally - so her attitude more than anything. Plus, her stance on Israel makes her pretty much the left-wing version of Rob Anders.

Which Tory do Dippers and Grits dislike most besides Anders?

In Quebec, most likely Maxime Bernier (before 2011, clearly Josée Verner).

I think it might depend on what your big issues. Socons hate Martin for his anti-Evangelical comments. Neocons hate Davies because of her Israel view etc.

Vic Toews before he quit. Pollievre gets a fair amount of hate on my Facebook feed.

People being in these parties because of social issues usually hate very much Stephen Woolworth (the guy of the abortion motions).

Senate wants some important FEA changes. Wonder what will be bargained.  (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/senate-flexes-muscles-over-fair-elections-act/article17955323/)

On the flip-side, I have heard that Joe Comartin is a genuinely nice guy.

Long Funke read on the new ridings. (http://www.punditsguide.ca/2014/04/conservative-2015-majority-at-risk-as-incumbents-flee-to-safer-ground/)

Cheryl Gallant is up there in my books, but it looks like she's been muzzled recently. Pierre Poilievre is man who makes my blood boil more.  He comes from a new wave of ultra right wing young Tories that scare me to death.


I wouldn't go that far. Let's say for argument sake that her "anti-Israel" comments are worth the same points as something Rob Anders has spewed out of his mouth. Rob Anders has spewed far more garbage than a Tory could ever accuse Libby Davies of spewing. (This is why I thought Pat Martin would be a closer candidate, although I may be biased in thinking that not even he comes into the same category).  I think the NDP does a good job of keeping their extremists out of the limelight. Maybe if Barry Weisleder was an MP, there'd be someone similar to compare.

Anders may run in Calgary Rocky Ridge: http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/politics/Ousted+Anders+said+contemplating+nomination+nearby+riding/9734987/story.html :(

NPDQ timeline begins after the federal election. (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201404/14/01-4757271-regain-dinteret-pour-un-npd-quebec.php)

Is Wells the only one who hasn't succumbed to the bubble? (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/04/14/harpers_support_among_conservatives_approaching_free_fall_hbert.htmll)

No article in English, but Scientology detox centers are violating human rights laws and wants to declare themselves bankrupt to not pay the fines.

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-nouvelliste/actualites/201404/14/01-4757560-narconon-a-viole-les-droits-humains.php (http://www.lapresse.ca/le-nouvelliste/actualites/201404/14/01-4757560-narconon-a-viole-les-droits-humains.php)

When a government will take action against that dangerous fraudulous cult?

Hilarious: Innes has sued Trudeau for defamation. H/T Bob Fife.

$1.5 million to be precise. (http://www.sotosllp.com/innes-statement-of-claim/)

Tory MP Dave Tilson will be challenged by lawyer Paul Hong for the nomination in Dufferin-Caledon. (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/04/15/incumbent_tory_mp_tilson_to_face_challenge_for_2015_nomination.html) May the best man win.

Kinsella thinks Trudeau will lose big unless he settles.  (http://warrenkinsella.com/2014/04/trudeau-will-lose/)

Wynne is suing Hudak and MacLeod for $2 million.

Poilievre is considering the Senate recommendations.  (https://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2014/04/15/senate-committees-proposed-changes-to-feds-elections-bill-look-like-a-lifeline/38204?page_requested=1)

RCMP investigation of Wright ended, no criminal charges. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nigel-wright-won-t-face-charges-over-90k-payment-to-mike-duffy-1.2610727?cmp=rss&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter)

I don't usually post UPAC stuff because I don't follow it that much, but Normandeau's office was allegedly at the centre of a criminal conspiracy. (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201404/16/01-4758300-le-cabinet-de-normandeau-au-coeur-dune-conspiration-criminelle-selon-lupac.php)

Duffy could be charged within the month. (http://globalnews.ca/news/1275299/suspended-senator-mike-duffy-likely-to-be-charged-soon-source/)

Senate reference decision comes down next Friday.

Ontario budget vote will be sometime between May 7 and June 2. Election would be between June 5 and July 3.

Frank Coleman will be the next Premier of Newfoundland as his only opponent in the Tory leadership race has withdrawn.

Do you still think Horwath pulls the trigger?

I haven't heard anything different.

Another Ontarian tea leaf: NDP will hold 2 days of intense campaign training in TO next week.  (http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/04/18/ndp_quietly_working_behind_the_scenes_for_spring_election.bb.html)

Thanks to Smid for reminding me about this article: only 3 '93 Reformers, including Harper, will be around after next year. (http://o.canada.com/news/national/from-rebels-to-retirees-ranks-of-original-reformers-are-rapidly-dwindling/)

Completely agree with Granatstein.  (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/why-is-canada-botching-the-great-war-centenary/article18056398/)

Report that Horwath will pull the trigger.  (http://ontarionewswatch.com/onw-news.html?id=733) FWIW Bisson says "grossly inaccurate speculation."

Herb Gray has died at 82. RIP.

RIP Herb Gray. He was chancellor of my university when I graduated, so his signature appears on my degree.

Wells reposted his column from Gray's retirement 12 years ago. (http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/the-gray-fog-rolls-out/)

Angus-Reid has us up 34/29/27 among national LV (32/30/26 EV) and 43/29/27 in Ontario LV. Grits nosedived in Ontario. (http://www.angusreidglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/21.04.2014-ARG-National-Voter-Intention.pdf)

Weird.

How so? We've been tied with them in most non-Forum polls.

"Tied" being a bit of a stretch: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_42nd_Canadian_federal_election

Tories haven't led any polls since the Fall. Last time they were within the margin of error was February (5 point gap). Last time the Tories consistently led in polling was last Spring.

BQ on the verge of 4th in Quebec. Hilarious.

I say we should get Harcourt to run against her.

New skilled immigration program to supplement TFW. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/skilled-immigrants-to-be-offered-express-entry-to-canada-in-2015-1.2617961?cmp=rss&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter)

I hope the new program will be much more strict.
I have enough of employers searching very exactly what they want, and if they don't find it, go hire a foreign person.
Before, they hired someone not exactly fitting what they wanted and they trained it. No wonder young unemployment is so high.

So what's up with that Angus Reid poll? Rogue poll or is there a shift afoot?

otherwise normal poll save for a huge swing to the Tories in Ontario.  methinks a 20th poll

Trudeau's negatives have also skyrocketed, now at 45/44 approval. Elections aren't won with prayers and all that.

Liberal minority I imagine. Tory numbers will recover a bit by election time and the NDP has a high enough floor to prevent any majorities.

No, the NDP floor is much lower than you think. Maybe 15?

It would require a collapse in Quebec.

Yeah. Barring a wave or change in alignment I'd put the NDP floor around 20 or so.

Why? They've only ever got more than 20% in two elections in their entire history. Of course it would require a collapse in Quebec to get lower than that again, but that's not outside the realm of possibility, considering they've only voted NDP once before.

This is Canada. How can anyone take any of these things as a given?

Once upon the time the NDP's floor was 6%. Don't see it going that low in the near future.

Federally, Quebec swings around once every decade. 1984 (Liberal->PC), 1993 (PC->Bloc), 2004 (Liberal->Bloc), 2011 (Bloc->NDP). NDP should be safe until early 2020s.

That's probably it, but could be that all the talk of a provincial election is focusing attention on that and possibly tainting the grit name?

More Prentice PC buzz, believe when seen.  (http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/politics/Will+Push+Prentice+enter+race+ramps/9768894/story.html)

Robocall investigation is closed.  (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2014/04/24/elections-commissioner-halting-robocalls-probe/#.U1lRU41OWP9)

Disgusting. Again, the Conservative Party used their power to protect themselves.

In other news, Poilievre will support some Senate FEA amendments, so looks like it'll still pass on time.  (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/pierre-poilievre-says-amendments-coming-to-elections-bill-1.2620474)

Ipsos national has 33/33/24. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/conservatives-liberals-tied-for-national-vote-poll-says/article18202354/) Only 23% following FEA debate closely, in line with Angus-Reid & Political Traction.

"Only" 23?

Or to put it another way, 77% aren't following closely. :P

Some more FEA numbers: 87% think ID should be presented to vote, 70% support eliminating vouching, 52% don't care if it makes voting difficult for some. All # from CTV's Richard Madan.

It's interesting that after all the criticisms from the experts and the media, Canadians still support the measures. I suppose the people who are following it closely are more likely to be against it.

I once vouched for my roommate, even though I knew he was going to vote Tory. That's how much I support the right to vote.

Also, the fact that 52% of Canadians don't care if voting is difficult disgusts me.

Supremes rule as expected on the Senate: 7/50 for elections and term limits, unanimity for abolition, feds can abolish QC property requirement without consulting Assnat.

I think it's just more that 52% of Canadians are sufficiently comfortable and have long been sufficiently comfortable to simply not be able to grasp how difficult this can be for some people's circumstances. It's so very far outside your typical middle class Canadian's life experience to not be able to prove your identity that they simply don't get it

A fair few FEA amendments. (http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/04/25/pierre-poilievre-unveils-changes-to-fair-elections-act-after-weeks-of-damaging-criticism/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)

The Nova Scotia Barrister's Society will not accredit Trinity Western (http://www.ottawacitizen.com/life/Nova+Scotia+society+rule+school+that+prohibits+intimacy/9773552/story.html)'s law school unless they drop their same sex marriage covenant... because tolerance.

Test Act here we come :P

Good decision. Schools aren't allowed to dictate how students must act out of school.

Yes, most middle class voters have driver's licenses. I have an expired one (I have no need or desire to drive anymore) and was lucky enough to be able to use it last summer as ID in a by-election (they didn't check whether it was valid, and I'm not sure if it even matters, as it still has a photo of me).  My partner even used her British passport! We also used some bills to prove where we lived.

Bad decision. It's not as if those students couldn't go elsewhere if they don't like the restriction, and I utterly fail to see how it prevents Trinity Western's students from being good lawyers.  The idea that we have to force people to be universally tolerant is one of the more intolerant ideas I have come across.  Now if one could actually show how TW's policy negatively impacts its students, I'd be supportive of the action against the school, but so far no one has.

In Quebec, for voting, it's clearly written in training documentation than an expired driving licence is perfectly valid.  Same thing for an expired Health card or an expired passport.

In my mind, that's a violation of the Charter provision on forbidding discrimination. I doubt than Trinity Western will properly teach those notions, as it's going against their agenda.

You doubt, but have no evidence that's the case.  Sorry, but imposing sanctions because of a hunch doesn't seem very just to me.  Any evidence that TW's students have been bad in other professions such as education as a result of that policy you object to? (Their law school has yet to open as I understand it, so obviously there's no evidence for this specific program.)

Granted, I have a firmer idea of how things work under the U.S. Constitution than under the Canadian Charter, but I fail to see how things would have changed since 2001 when the Canadian Supreme Court slapped down the British Columbia College of Teachers for trying the same thing with teacher accreditation for education students at TW.

Might be here as well. The Ontario Elections website was vague on the matter, and I was scared to ask.  I also have an expired passport, but it's 10 years old, which was from before I could even vote. (My divers license photo isn't much newer though).

Crosstabs from the Ipsos Ontario poll: big Tory gains in SW major story. (http://ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6479)

Quick question, but why do Canadian party leaders risk running in marginal seats when leaders in other Westminster systems generally come from ultra safe seats?

I'm thinking of the likes of Marois, Clark, Iggy and even Couillard running in a PQ seat.

Iggy's seat was not marginal in 2006. Clark inherited her predecessor's seat, Marois is from Quebec City, Couillard wanted to run where he lives. All the federal leaders are fine.

To boot:

• Marois won by 13 points in 2012 in Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré.  Likely some animus against her that lead to her losing in 2014.
• Previous BC Premier Gordon Campbell had always won Vancouver-Point Grey by comfortable, if not quite 'safe' margins, but Christy Clark was much less rhetorically suited to the sort of voters found in the riding and 2013 was actually the first time since 1991 that the Liberals didn't win Vancouver overall.  She had no seat when she was elected BC Liberal Leader
• Michael Ignatieff won by ten points in 2008, and it was widely regarded as a safe seat when he got into politics.
• Derryl Dexter in Nova Scotia had won by solid landslides in Cole Harbour prior to being tossed in 2013

It mostly seems that Canadian voters are fluid enough that safe seats simply don't remain safe for all that long.  Even out West, in landslide Tory Country, a whole crop of Tories were wiped out in 1993 by the Reform Party. 

I suppose it's notable that both Justin Trudeau and Thomas Mulcair run in seats that were recently occupied by other parties, and if either of them were to become unpopular, I suspect they too might lose their seats.  It's actually somewhat ironic, as I believe NDPer Mulcair's seat Outremont is the more tony of the two, while Trudeau's Papineau is among the poorest in Canada.

There does seem to a notion of taking the 'forward capital' approach though, where a leader gambles on the leader-effect to try to raise the fortunes of their party in an area where they are weak, such as Couillard in Roberval, or John Turner running in Vancouver Quadra in 1984, or Jean Chretien in St. Maurice, seats which it is likely might not have been won otherwise

Dexter got screwed by redistribution as well. A wealthy neighbourhood got tacked onto his working class seat. The seat is still lean NDP, but it isn't safe enough to protect from waves like his old one would have.

Let's not forget the classic example of John Tory running in a super safe seat in a by-election, and losing the race.

In Montreal, Independent and bigoted city councillor for Loyola district (Côte-des-Neiges-Notre-Dame-de-Grâce) Jeremy Searle was almost kicked out of council.

Two weeks ago, during the borough council meeting, he said than independentists were like insects needing to be exterminated.

Today, at the city council, he asked a question to the mayor and the mayor answered than he wanted an answer about that. Searle said than it had no link with the question and than the mayor had a head problem. That caused the Speaker anger and Project Montreal wanted to expell him from the council.

http://www.cjad.com/cjad-news/2014/04/28/separatists-as-insects-searle-makes-things-worse-for-himself (http://www.cjad.com/cjad-news/2014/04/28/separatists-as-insects-searle-makes-things-worse-for-himself)

EDIT: We can also had than he was elected in a wierd 5-way race. 23-21-17-17-17 (Independent-Projet Montréal-Team Denis Coderre-Mélanie Joly Group-Coalition Montreal)

I thought NDG was a bunch of yuppies. How'd he even get a quarter of the vote?

I posted about him in the 2013 election thread, noting he had a tendency to say wierd things and than he was born in Bristol, UK.

He is also there since decades. Reputation built in part on painting white circles around potholes in 1998 to force the city to repair them quicker.

Defeated in 1990 for the Democratic Coalition for Loyola ward. Elected in 1994 for Montrealers Party for Loyola ward, elected as an independent in 1998, reeelected as Union Montreal in 2001. Defeated when he ran for borough mayorship in 2005 (for Team Jeremy Searle). Tried coming back in 2009 in his ward, as an independent, lost, but won back in 2013.

Article about him from 2009 (in English): http://www.lesactualites.ca/01_anciensite/?site=CDN&section=page&1=C090826&2=C090826_JeremySearle (http://www.lesactualites.ca/01_anciensite/?site=CDN&section=page&1=C090826&2=C090826_JeremySearle)

Looks like Prentice is actually running for PC leader.  Go figure. (http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/politics/Exclusive+Prentice+leadership+crown+source/9784478/story.html)

Hah: PKP only boosts the PQ by 2 in a hypothetical ballot test, same as Hivon. Duceppe boosts them by 4. (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201404/28/01-4761761-sondage-duceppe-rapprocherait-le-pq-dune-victoire.php)

Only way to stop Wild Rose is to elect Red Tories like Prentice. Worked with Redford. It scares any centrist voters away from voting Liberal or NDP.

Dippers have a 38/24 lead among Francophone voters, 33/32/20/12 in QC generally. (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201404/29/01-4761810-letoile-de-justin-trudeau-palit-au-quebec.php)

Breaking: Brian Mason will be stepping down as Alberta NDP leader in October.  In other words: two autumn leadership races in Alberta!

Despite a 1% lead for NDP, it would be a large lead in seats for them. Bloc might hope to gain a few seat because of NDP/Liberal division, Conservatives are obviously not going well.

Imagine the reaction if Grits are stuck in third next year. ;D On a related note, do the exit surveys ever cover ROC Francophones?

New AB poll: Wildrose 50, Progs 21.  (http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/politics/Wildrose+cashing+Tory+woes+poll+shows/9790775/story.html)

Wow. And the Liberals are in fourth!

Nothing surprising, in the aftermath of Redford resignation. It will tighten later, through.

The Liberals in 4th is surprising. You'd think they'd be challenging the Tories for 2nd considering.

Regional Projection

()

I would expect a lot of Red-PCs to 'go home' as a it were, but I never did like Raj Sherman all that much

lol

He denied than the issue was his alcoholism and than the odor of alcohol during the council was from drunk journalists.

He said than he had an issue with alcohol, like he has an issue with his age (he thinks he is 2 times too old).
He also said than people not drinking alcohol during supper are losers.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/montreal/201404/30/01-4762414-probleme-dalcool-le-conseiller-searle-se-defend-et-en-rajoute.php (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/montreal/201404/30/01-4762414-probleme-dalcool-le-conseiller-searle-se-defend-et-en-rajoute.php)

That guy is dangerous.

Resize the image please.

sorry, didn't realize it was quite so gigantic

Q1 fundraising # are out. Tories $4.5 million, Grits 3.8, Dippers 2.5. (https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=844039655610683)

Indeed. I'm curious how much of a bump Prentice will give them.

Tensions are rising between the government and Supreme Court, but little anyone can do since the Constitution's the ultimate source. (http://ww2.nationalpost.com/m/wp/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com/2014/05/01/tories-incensed-with-supreme-court-as-some-allege-chief-justice-lobbied-against-marc-nadon-appointment)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/rob-ford-takes-leave-as-new-drug-video-emerges/article18354671/ (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/rob-ford-takes-leave-as-new-drug-video-emerges/article18354671/)

And we now have another Rob Ford video, which was shot in sisters basement, and involves the Toronto mayor taking a drag from a copper colored pipe.

Ford is now taking a "leave of absence"

God help Toronto and God help Canada if he is re-elected

A big one, if we're lucky.  One thing to note from that poll is that a quarter of the sample was undecided, and if this is anything like polls we saw leading up to the 2012 election (including from around the time that Stelmach stepped down), a large amount of those undecideds are past PC voters who are at this point unsure about whether they'll come home.  From that perspective, a big bump from Prentice could certainly make a comeback possible.  The WRP is definitely ahead at the moment, and there's absolutely no denying that.  However, PC fundraising numbers are still strong, and assuming that this poll is right, the WRP is still within the margin or error of their 2012 result (when you factor in all respondents).

Here's the poll document, for anyone who's interested. (http://www.insightswest.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Politics_AB_All.pdf)  Total sample results were 38% WRP, 25% undecided, 16% PC, 12% NDP, 8% Liberal, 1% other

We've already discussed this in the Ontario municipal elections thread :)

As Njall notes, the issue in that poll is undecided voters, which will almost certainly (but not definitely) break for the progressives. This would no doubt be attributed to a bump from the new leader, but realistically, the new leader probably won't have contributed much to that, unless it's someone like Rajotte, or if Morton ran again (and won this time). Red Tories are not the ones deserting the party and therefore not the reason Wildrose is once more leading in the polls, so changing one red leader for another will likely have negligible impact on poll support.

Yes, Trudeau's honeymoon is over. (http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/05/01/michael-den-tandt-justin-trudeau-must-conquer-the-blurt-factor-if-he-hopes-to-lead-the-country/)

Of course the 'honeymoon's' over. It's been over for a while now.  Honeymoons don't last a year. After a while, it just becomes a 'lead' 

A pretty typical Den Tandt column on JT overall.

So I was playing as the Tories in the 1993 PM4E scenario and managed to scrape together a Tory minority with 88 seats :P

New CROP poll (http://static.lpcdn.ca/fichiers/html/1867/14-8256_-_politique_quebec_et_canada_avril_2014_.pdf)

PLQ: 40% (-2)
CAQ: 23% (nc)
PQ: 22% (-3)
QS: 11% (+4)
ON: 1 (nc)
Other: 2 (+1)

NDP: 33 (+2)
Liberal: 32 (-1)
Bloc: 20 (+1)
Conservative: 12 (-1)
Green: 4 (-2)

As expected, QS is benefiting from the PQ's declined. I'm a bit surprised at PLQ as they don't appear to be having a honeymoon.

Well they did just get whacked with a new set of corruption scandals.

Atleo's resigned as AFN chief, saying he didn't want to be a lightning rod on education issues.

More on Harper-McLachlin. Buried lede: apparently use of the notwithstanding clause is  being "not seriously" discussed. (http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/05/02/john-ivison-harpers-attack-on-the-chief-justice-qualifies-as-yet-another-blindside-hit/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)

The slider thing at the top of the election atlas website has spots for 1979-2011, but only has maps for 1988-2011. Weird. Hopefully we get maps soon :D

No, there's maps there now! :D

No, there isn't. It's the just the scale which is broken. 1988 is 1979, 1993 is between 1980 and 1984, etc...

Tory Sen. (http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/05/05/don-meredith-masters-degree-credentials_n_5244391.html) Don Meredith has  (http://www.yorkregion.com/news-story/4501805-tory-senator-don-meredith-s-troubles-pile-up-1-800-number-leads-to-sex-chat-line/)a few issues.

Agreed w/Ivison. I mean really, screwing BTB just because Industry is feeling miserly... (http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/05/05/canada-will-do-whatever-it-takes-to-ensure-security-of-u-s-as-long-as-it-doesnt-cost-too-much/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)

Works for me, he does have maps for 1979-1984 now :)

ROFLMAO: PKP now claims to oppose public broadcasting cuts.  (http://blogues.journaldemontreal.com/votreopinion/opinions/coupes-a-radio-canada-linformation-nest-pas-une-simple-marchandise/)

Indeed. Sadly, I would have prefered not seeing my riding voting Social Credit in 1979.

I thought Reform was winning a lot of seats for the early 80's...

Well, it's fixed now but, as me, you'll probably have to clear the cache (press the refresh button while holding the Ctrl key under Firefox).

Unfortunately my riding has voted Grit since time immemorial, 3 terms of Bill Hamilton aside.

NDG? It's NDP now, right?

Yeah, wonder if it stays that way next year. Though I was never a Jennings fan...

At the borough council meeting, he refused to resign and called Richard Bergeron, leader of Projet Montréal, "a promoter of terrorists".

Classy

Well... Bergeron is a published 9/11 truther...

My fiance just asked me why the Greens were so popular in Quebec in 1979 :D

Farcical Forum Poll has LPC at 45% in BC.  http://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/30116_Fed_Horserace_News_Release_%282014.04.30%29_Forum_Research.pdf

Such numbers would project in Federal Liberals places like Kelowna and Vancouver East...

Some of the BC ridings from 1979 seem both familiar and strange, like Cariboo-Chilcotin stretching all the way down to Howe Sound past Squamish.   My first thought was that it sort of made sense, since the Sea-to-Sky highway wasn't built until the 1960s, and there was only ferry and rail access to Squamish, but then I remembered that Cayoosh Pass, the route north of that region, wasn't motorable until the 1970s. The only other way not-by-rail in or out of that region is by some shifting logging roads may not have existed in those days.

I'm amazed how few ridings suburban Toronto had. Brampton isn't even worth an entire riding, only two for Mississauga and only one riding for the whole of Vaughan, Markham etc.

I think this may be a browser issue. It works for me in Safari.

It's worked after I cleared the cache.

Look at the results in some of those ridings too. Some ridings had 100000+ voters.

Montreal is the same. Montreal northern exurbs are 2 ridings (and parts of 3 rural ridings), Montreal southern exurbs are 4 ridings, Laval is 3 (right now, it's 5.5, 6 and 3.5 and will be
7, 7, 4 in 2015)

I think the 1993 result in York North must be the record. Bevilacqua won 71,500 votes in his own right.

Alberta Infrastructure Minister Ric McIver will step down from cabinet in order to run for PC leader. (http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/politics/Former+alderman+McIver+poised+enter+leadership+race/9812649/story.html)

Oh the perpetually under-represented suburbs. In BC they used to be allowed to make allowance for expected population growth, but they could never do it honestly, so you ended up with places like Atlin where members  were elected the basis of less than 3000 votes into the 1980s

That's what they did in this recent redistribution. Many suburban ridings in BC and Ontario will begin their lives underpopulated.

RIP Farley Mowat.  (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/acclaimed-canadian-author-farley-mowat-dead-at-92/article18511064/#dashboard/follows/)Died today at 92, didn't know he was sill alive.

Headline from 1990. (http://www.ipolitics.ca/2014/05/07/future-liberal-candidates-must-be-pro-choice-trudeau/) Trudeau says all Grit candidates must be pro-choice.

:(


Were Liberals all supposed to be pro choice in 1990? How'd that work out for them :P

Guess Szabo & McTeague aren't running again.

Earl: Was referring to the expanded veto.

DC: Guess not, but I'd also guess he wants to limit the number of retreads.

Hmm... per Rosie Barton McKay wishes his party was more pluralistic.  (https://twitter.com/RosieBarton/status/464116500077740032)

100% agreed w/Newman. (http://knlive.ctvnews.ca/honour-veterans-help-them-find-jobs-1.1808995#ixzz30yWHBdHA)

La Presse reported on Ville-Marie hocus-pocus 2 months ago (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201403/13/01-4747483-des-militants-mecontents-des-nominations-liberales-federales.php), now Maclean's has details. (http://www.macleans.ca/politics/questions-raised-about-votes-in-marc-millers-liberal-nomination/)

Feds trying to offload responsibility for aboriginal policing. Bad idea IMO. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-wants-first-nations-to-police-reserves/article18548114/)

PMO suggested Nadon resign and join the QC bar. (http://globalnews.ca/news/1317185/pmo-suggested-justice-marc-nadon-resign-join-quebec-bar-sources/)

G&M interview with the new Chinese ambassador. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/asian-pacific-business/china-decries-negative-investment-rules/article18548197/)

The expanded Atlas also us to explore further back in the history and see some curiosities, like a Independent winning York North in 1984. (York North was huge then, including current Vaughan, Thornhill, Richmond Hill, Markham-Unionville and parts of Oak Ridges-Markham). It's an interesting story.

The PC incumbent, John Gamble (1979-1984) was a controversial hard-right and anti-communist MP. He ran for PC leadership in 1983 and got a very small result. Tony Roman was the mayor of Markham and local influent people convinced him of running to get rid of the hard right MP, because the Liberal candidate was weak (those local people were PCers, independents and Liberals). He ran on on some wierd halfway between Liberals and PC and won. He retired after one term and returned to Markham mayorship.

John Gamble tried to run for Reform in 1993, but was expelled for its links with neo-nazi Heritage Front.

Historic: PLQ 40%, CAQ 27%, PQ 19%. PQ third among Francophones (!!!) 33% CAQ, 29% PLQ, 23% PQ. Last among voters under 45.  (http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/407985/sondage-leger-creux-historique-pour-le-pq)Part of this is normal for landslide defeats, but Leger said he's never seen anything like it. Question is now whether Vincent Lemieux was right and PQ is a one-generation pony.

Grits still stratospheric in the Atlantic provinces.
 (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/trudeaus-liberals-lead-in-atlantic-canada-poll/article18338071/)

That looks pretty bad for the PQ when it comes to seats. The PQ has the same problem as the Bloc; not many bastions of support. When the tide goes against them, they really feel it. They might salvage a dozen seats with that result.

A funny coincidence I just realized looking at the 1984 map following MaxQue's post above: in that year, all three parties elected an Anglican priest MP in Toronto (Dan Heap, NDP, Spadina; Reginald Stackhouse, PC, Scarborough West; Roland De Corneille, Liberal, Eglinton-Lawrence).

People like Gamble remind to laugh at all the PC-nostalgics

Alberta regime still in extremis and Prentice may create another voter whiplash if he clears the field when nominations close on the 30th. Not elected by a riding, party or province. (http://www.calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/Prentice+coronation+would+finally+topple+Tory+regime/9832237/story.html) Climate is so radioactive that Wildrose could even knock him off in Calgary-Foothills, in which case Braid says Prentice's leadership would be instantly over before it began.

NDP introducing an abortion resolution.  (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/abortion-rights-move-by-ndp-to-embarrass-liberals-could-backfire-1.2639811)

CETA can't live up to hype if isn't signed. (http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/05/13/stephen-harpers-free-trade-deals-not-living-up-to-the-political-hype/)

More Bruce Carson charges. (http://aptn.ca/news/2014/05/12/new-bruce-carson-charges-stem-business-federal-departments-meeting-involving-trudeau-aide/)

Police could see tax data without a warrant due to an omnibus clause. Hopefully that gets fixed. (http://thechronicleherald.ca/canada/1206977-police-could-see-tax-info-without-warrant-under-proposed-law)

WTF: Smith claims Prentice intermediaries asked for a merger.  (http://www.calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/Braid+Wildrose+leader+resists+merge+attempts/9835643/story.html)If true he's absolutely delusional and an arrogant asshole.

Someone Polled BC! namely 39% NDP, 38% Liberal, 14% Green

http://www.insightswest.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/ReportCardMay2014_Tables.pdf (http://www.insightswest.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/ReportCardMay2014_Tables.pdf)

NDP taxpayer funded office controversy still going, but typical bubble issue IMO.  (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2014/05/14/ndp-still-using-parliamentary-resources-to-pay-for-staff-outside-ottawa/#.U3Pje7kU-Ul)

Cardinal Collins isn't happy with the Grits on abortion, but no mention of the NDP's stance. (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2014/05/14/ndp-still-using-parliamentary-resources-to-pay-for-staff-outside-ottawa/#.U3Pje7kU-Ul) Better response than what happened last time.
 (http://www.lapresse.ca/debats/chroniques/patrick-lagace/201005/16/01-4281007-le-mepris-de-kazem-ouellet.php)

Still no mention of Trudeau's carbon tax except in Sun. Wonder why.

I highly doubt that this is true, at least in its entirety.

Denials haven't been terribly convincing.

Old news but forgot to post: Tory MPs Greg Kerr (West Nova, BC) (http://www.novanewsnow.com/News/2014-04-26/article-3703048/Greg-Kerr-won%26rsquo%3Bt-re-offer-in-next-federal-election/1) and Colin Mayes  (http://www.vernonmorningstar.com/news/254964841.html)(Okanagan-Shuswap, BC) will retire next year.

Surprising for Greg Kerr, he is only elected since 2008, but I suppose he thought he would lose next time (Harper is very unpopular in the Atlantic), and his riding voted Liberal in 2006. He won 47-36 over the former Liberal MP last time.

Mayes was elected first in 2006. Riding is quite safe, last time it was one by another party than Reform/Conservtive was in 1988 (NDP). He won 55-36 last time against NDP, with Liberals 4th, behind Greens in 3rd.

He's been in politics since 1978. I imagine he's ready to retire. Kerr was probably the Tories only hope in West Nova. Goodbye West Nova I guess :\

Unsurprisingly, O'Connor is also retiring next year. (http://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2014/05/19/conservative-mp-oconnor-wont-seek-re-election--sen-white-might-run/38523) Vern White might run.

West Nova, BC ??? :P

Can't believe I missed that one :P

Also, West Nova & Central Nova are stupid riding names.

Yes, they are. What would you call them?

Forgot to mention that FEA passed the House, but waiting for Senate + royal assent.

I'd combine them into one riding named Super Nova. ;D

 Annapolis Valley-Yarmouth and East Shore-Pictou

West Nova is easy: Yarmouth-Digby-Annapolis. Covers the three main counties that make up 90% of the riding.

Central Nova is a bit tougher since it's an awkward riding. Maybe Pictou-Eastern Shore or Pictou-Antigonish-Eastern Shore. The 2nd one is more accurate but it sounds funny :P

What about Yarmouth-Digby-Annapolis Valley ?

I would also go with Pictou-Antigonish-Eastern Shore for Central Nova.

Antigonish is just such a damndably long string of long syllables when properly pronounced

Yeah that would work. It would also cover the chunk of Kings county that's in the riding without adding another place to the riding name. What are some other terribly named ridings? The only one I can think of off the top of my head is New Brunswick Southwest, but I'm sure there are others... Maybe some of the Alberta ridings? There's no way that "Manning" is an actual neighbourhood in Edmonton :P

British Columbia Southern Interior.

Any riding named after a person.

Names with more than three places in its title.

For NB SW, I would suggest: Charlotte-Saint John Valley
For BC SI: Kootenay-Okanagan or Kootenay-Similkameen or Kootenay-Boundary-Okanagan/Similkameen

Thankfully, BCSI riding is gone, replaced with the more sensibly shaped ridings of 'South Okanagan-West Kootenay'  and 'Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola'  

Both of which are horrible names.  I think a name that contains more than four-five words should be struck, along with pointless directionals. SOWK could be replaced with Okanagan-Kootenay.  COSN could easily be Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola or Okanagan-Merritt-Keremeos or Boundary Okanagan or whatever.

as for the old riding, I feel 'Kootenay-Keremeos' would have been an artful name

Of course, the BC Commission was fond of ensuring that everyone knew at a glance what particular part of some area was attached to another area, thus we end up with Vancouver Island North-Comox-Powell River and Burnaby North-Seymour. I would rename so many of them

Also, thoughts on 'Vancouver Quadra'? It's been named that for decades, but Quadra isn't a neighborhood. Quadra is an island north of here, and was a Spanish explorer. Despite my dislike of ridings-from-people, I do feel that Quadra has been Quadra for so long that it has become part of the Geography

For Quadra: Why not Quilchena-Point Grey? (for the provincial ridings)

Especially after redistribution that would make some sense. Thing is that, while I don't mind the just-pick-a-name approach, 'Quilchena' isn't actually the name of anything other than a mid sized park and a smallish street and a small town in the Interior. 

Vancouver-West would be the most logical name if not for the existence of the municipality of West Vancouver.  Perhaps Vancouver-University? It might even be polite to make it Vancouver-Musquem or something like that

I hate appending "University" to riding names. But you're right about Quilchena. I couldn't find much referring to the area as that.

This may be getting too long for you, but what about "Vancouver West End--Point Grey"?


ETA: Actually, "Vancouver-Point Grey" might be inclusive enough, since there are areas in the south of the riding called Point Grey as well.

I'm kind of curious what they'll do in in Calgary next redistribution. It's big enough that they could start using riding names other than Calgary_______ but the city grew so fast, there aren't really any alternative place names to use. There's no equivalent to Etobicoke or Scarborough for Calgary is there?

Not really, no. It's incredibly difficult to name ridings in Calgary, because the city isn't really divided into large regions with a unique names (even Edmonton as Mill Woods). Rather, the city is divided up into hundreds of small little neighbourhoods.

Can they just divide into "North Calgary" and "South Calgary" or something?

Cardinal-Direction geography is tricky in Vancouver, and any name including a cardinal direction is probably in no way a symmetrical concept with a similar name including a different cardinal direction.  'The West End' refers to the portion of the downtown peninsula NW of Burrard St. and SW of Georgia St, which is part of Vancouver-Centre.

Point Grey refers to two things- the headland on which UBC sits (a term which is not frequently encountered for lack of need to use it), and the rather tony neighborhood between Blanca St, 16th Avenue, and Alma St. This neighborhood is quite small compared to Vancouver Point Grey, and smaller still next to Vancouver Quadra, though the headland does itself make a good name. 

What's wrong with -University?

There are ten constituencies within Calgary city limits

Every major city in Canada has a university, there is nothing unique about using it in a riding name.

As for Point Grey, there is a golf course in the southern part of Vancouver Quadra named Point Grey, which is why I thought it would be a good name.

I think it would be ok if the riding used a specific university name that wasn't just a place name. i.e. Toronto-Ryerson would be ok but Toronto-UofT would not.

Maybe, also having the name "University Heights" for York West would be acceptable.

Every major city in Canada has a north end or a west end, and University seems more interesting than that. 

And true, there is the Point Grey golf course. I used to live near there, over on the Musquem Reserve. 

Hebert: revert to much stricter early voting. (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/05/21/advance_polls_distort_final_outcome_of_elections_hbert.html)

Ibbitson: Trudeau doesn't understand the realities of modern foreign policy. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/justin-trudeaus-foreign-policy-is-rooted-in-nostalgia/article18772651/)

Ibbitson's article could be summarized as 'I'm going to pretend that Justin Trudeau is actually 1988 vintage John Turner'

John Turner used the terms "imperialist" and "colonial" when discussing foreign policy? News to me. Nah, what Ibbitson's saying is that Trudeau's embodying Laurentia.

Nanos tracker: 56% would consider voting Grit, 45% NDP, 44% Tory. PPM is Harper 31, Trudeau 27, Mulcair 19.  (http://assets.nationalnewswatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Nanos-Political-Index-2014-05-16E.pdf)

Ah, the Nanos incomparable voodoo-poll

5 bills left this sitting. (http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/05/22/five-bills-to-watch-parliament_n_5370646.html)

ONB Tory nomination continues to be a clusterfark.  (http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/conservatives-delay-nomination-meeting-as-eve-adams-rival-trade-allegations-1.1834320)

The NS Liberals are liberalizing NS's outdated apprenticeship rules. Good for them.

Yeah, JT's a very polarizing figure among Francophones - though his entourage probably isn't a huge reason why. (http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/why-justin-trudeau-risks-alienating-quebec/) Money quote from Lapierre: "My impression is that the issue in Quebec will be the economy [in the 2015 election], and the name Justin Trudeau and the economy don’t exactly go hand in hand. All he does is say ‘middle class’ 100 times in his speeches.”

Knowlton Nash died today at 86. RIP. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/knowlton-nash-longtime-anchor-of-cbc-s-the-national-dead-at-86-1.2653467) :(

Gerald Keddy is retiring next year. (http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/#!/content/1.2654611)

Interestingly, Keddy only broke 40% of the vote in one of his 6 election victories (2011).

Probably going to lose that one in 2015, but the riding  has a long history of the NDP & Liberals splitting the progressive vote, so maybe there's an outside chance at the Tories keeping it.

McKay none too thrilled with Trudeau's abortion edict. (http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/bozo-eruption-liberal-mp-secretly-recorded-slamming-trudeau-s-abortion-stance-1.1839528)

Romeo Dallaire is resigning from the Senate. He'll tell his caucus within the hour.

Rightfully so; Trudeau is a moron for saying what he did. I want to know his logic as to how it will help win over Tory-Liberal swing voters or help win back seats in Scarborough.

He has principles instead of saying whatever could get him elected.

The Liberal Party has always welcomed pluralism on social issues, so good for him if he wants to stick to his principles but trying to impose it on all the Liberal Party itself by banning people with social views different to his as standing as a candidate is absurd. He seems completely cavalier to the entire principle of Liberalism, and it's going to hurt his party. This won't affect your vote, but it will affect many others.