Talk Elections

May 2003 - Like James Polk before him, President Bush has announced that, along with ending major combat operations in Iraq, he would not be running for a second term. This has opened the field wide open for potential Republican Presidential candidates. Several names are rising through the cracks, with frontrunners being Virginia Senator George Allen, Majority Leader Bill Frist, Vice President Dick Cheney, and Arizona Senator John McCain. This came as a shock to everyone, and it looks like it'll be difficult for these candidates to get their funds and campaigns together. Not everyone, however, is so behind on the times.


May 2003 - George Allen has consistently denied a bid for the Presidency, but early polling shows he would start off strong, at the top of the field. McCain has strong numbers, but barely holds on to a moderate coalition, and all polling shows that the smaller the field gets, the weaker McCain's chances get. With conservatives, McCain is persona non grata, voting against the Bush tax cuts and pushing a campaign finance bill, it's hard to see how he lasts into the later season.

Dick Cheney has the highest raw favorability numbers, but he has a lot of negatives as well, so the most favorable person is actually New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, even though he is not one of the top tier candidates. John McCain's favorability numbers are in shambles among Republicans, but he does better across the board.

You have my attention, good sir.

Yes this has potential keep it up!

June Announcements:


June 2003 - With the surprise of Bush still in the air, candidates are frantically getting things together. Senator George Allen, the frontrunner as of this point, has announced his candidacy for President. What's strange about his campaign is the infrastructure: Allen is not set up well in Iowa or New Hampshire. Instead, he has his sights on a win in South Carolina bringing him to the nomination. When asked why, his campaign manager replied: "No Republican Nominee has won the nod without South Carolina, plain and simple." This may be true, but stands as an odd strategy in todays climate.

John McCain, on the other hand, is erring on the safe side in terms of states. The McCain infrastructure in Iowa is empty, and there is very little sign that it will build up at any point. However, his infrastructure in New Hampshire is already building and solid, and it looks like New Hampshire will be the place for John McCain to shine once again. The question will be is it enough, and if 2000 is anything to note, it might not be. However, McCain folks are optimistic that times are different now.

In the dark horse category, filed under huh, is Former Michigan Governor John Engler. After leaving office, he has spoken on the solvency of Social Security, and from the looks of it, his campaign will be a focus on those programs. That didn't work out well for Pete DuPont, but Engler seems keenly aware of that situation, but knows he can be different. Engler has stated; "Well, I started behind before, and during my terms as Michigan Governor, started behind many times, but I've gotten to where I am through the work effort I have put in, and I think where I started will have no effect on where I end."

Another, slightly lighter dark horse is Congressman J.C. Watts. Like Engler, represents sort of a single issue campaign, but unlike Engler, has the sort of wayward movement that could make him something hard to compete with. His efforts are strong in Iowa, and he has visited the state more than any of the currently mentioned candidate, and his efforts are being rewarded (besides Oklahoma, Iowa is the only state where Watts is in double digits).

Nationally, the trend continues of McCain is slipping and Allen reaping the benefits, but there seems to be more beyond the surface...



June 2003 - After weeks of blech with Howard Dean holding a narrow but decisive lead over the field, Tom Daschle enters the race and shakes the entire thing up. Announcing a platform that attacks Bush's expansive deficit, increasing unemployment, and the way the Republicans are managing Iraq, Daschle moves to the top of the field immediately. However, more liberal Democrats aren't enthused, noting Daschle's palling with lobbyists, and his more moderate stances on a wide array of issues including immigration and the enviorment. With a big chunk of the Democratic electorate still undecided, Daschle's entrance doesn't change too much about the unimpressive Democratic field.

I am very interested in this - would be cool to see Bush's approval ratings in the next poll. With Iraq considered to be a win and ending so quickly, along with the post 9/11 bounce, I'd expect it to be pretty high.

I don't think there was a change made in Iraq, I think that Bush just also announced that he wasn't running for re-election during his infamous "Mission Accomplished" speech. But this is a great TL so far.

Yes this is correct. The war is running the same, it's just that Bush, during his grand pronouncement, went that step further.

Later/Last Announcements:


July and August were rocked by two big announcements, and pushed a little by two minor announcements. Vice President Dick Cheney, whose polling numbers showed he'd start strongly but not have much room for growth, has decided not to enter the Presidential race. When asked of who to endorse, he merely said "The Campaign matters most of all, and I will be looking to that for my endorsement."

Majority Leader Bill Frist, who many insiders thought was leaning against the race, decided to make a move and enter in Cheney's absence. Frist in this race is entering as the christian right candidate, which makes his candidacy all the more formidable in Iowa, where he is strongly building his forces. In terms of resources, the campaign is starting off somewhat weak, but are catching up quick as the hiring of Campaign Manager Steve Schmidt can tell you.

And then two announcements that matter a lot less: Health and Human Services Secretary and Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson and Former Senator Bob Smith. Thompson's announcement is a bit more major, and he has potential given his record in Wisconsin, but his campaign infrastructure is weak, and he's not exactly the most star studded candidate. Smith, on the other hand, is completely irrelevant. After his loss to Sununu, his candidacy smacks of perennial, and chances are, he'll be hanging around Ron Paul and Alan Keyes numbers.

However, still to come is the Iowa Straw Poll. With John McCain out and George Allen focusing elsewhere, it will be a horse race to see who comes out on top as the next big challenger. J.C. Watts, Tommy Thompson, and Bill Frist are noted as the top contenders, though not to be counted out are John Engler and even a candidate not already in the race, Former Undersecretary of Education Gary Bauer.

With a new poll out, Top Republicans leading Top Democrats by double digits, Allen nearly 10 points in the lead, and Bush Approvals at 60%.


Instead of fading to the background like the last couple of Democratic frontrunners, Tom Daschle has been fighting hard to continue his narrow lead in the polls. Receiving endorsements from Democratic power brokers like Senator Patrick Leahy, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, and even Former President Bill Clinton, he has cemented himself as the establishment candidate, pushing Congressman Dick Gephardt to as much as openly contemplate his future on the campaign trail. And now he has received the endorsement of someone who very much contemplated entering the race, General Wesley Clark. This endorsement not only bodes well for Daschle in terms of less competition, but boosts his advantage in Iowa (Clark's a fan of Ethanol), where him and Howard Dean are currently in a brawl for the win.

The Road to the Nomination


November of 2003


After months of holding large leads over Senator John McCain, footage leaks of George Allen at a rally chastising a McCain cameraman in a extremely racist manner. The blowback gets worse when Allen first denies it, then claims he made "Macca" up, then apologizes for in an insincere way. Combining that with less than stellar debate performances, and you get a candidate whose numbers are dropping like a pile of bricks. Senator Frist benefits from this, but if only it had happened later...

January of 2004


J.C. Watts, in a last ditch effort, tours around the state of Iowa, opening Campaign offices in every single county, and surprises when, after trailing in the polls by 5-10 point margins, beats the Majority Leader in a triumph. Surprises include John Engler, who wasn't much of a factor at all, and Ron Paul, who was left out of most polls. After Iowa, Tommy Thompson drops out of the race and endorses Frist, and Bob Smith drops out of the race and endorses Ron Paul.

Many McCain supporters were disappointed by the results in Iowa, but have no fear, because New Hampshire was bound to be a McCain slide. The major contest, in fact, would be the second place winner, and that's the contest that Frist, with his stronger resources, was able to compete and win.


Ron Paul's surprise performance was merely a flash in the pan. With the endorsement of a Former Senator in the state, many pundits brushed it off, and gave him very little attention. Engler's prospects looked grimmer and grimmer, but from the start he had promised to make his campaign about entitlement reform, and planned ahead for his own state primary to get him some delegates and some weight. Meanwhile, South Carolina looked like the contest to be, with three candidates who were vying for their vote. McCain, while desperately unpopular with conservative Republicans, struck a cord with moderates in the party, and increasingly, the waring Watts and Frist made the primary look like an opening for McCain. There was hope.



January of 2004

Democrats were not very excited about Minority Leader Tom Daschle, and were seeking alternatives for his nomination. However, with none coming about, he looked like a surefire winner in Iowa, and sure enough, he won the state in a big way.


The result was surprising in some ways. Howard Dean had fallen in the polls for a while after negative advertising had backfire in a big way against Daschle, and most polls had Edwards surging to second place. However, this was considered a big win for Mr. Dean. Dean proclaimed Iowa has the center of his comeback. Edwards, meanwhile, continued to center his efforts around a very crucial win in South Carolina.


After this result, Senator Kerry dropped out to endorse Daschle, and Gephardt did the very same thing. With most of the resources and endorsements, Daschle looked on his way to winning New Hampshire. However, there was a snag in his plans:


Daschle saw this as a tiny setback to ultimately the nomination being his, and the press made much the same point. Dean, however, touted New Hampshire, and resources for his campaign began to come back, seeing him as a winner. Edwards performance did not shake him, as his numbers were robust in states like New Mexico, Oklahoma, and South Carolina, and while nothing was definite, these next few states were Edwards time to shine.

Senator Lieberman dropped out and, in a shocking move, endorsed John McCain from the other side. This move angered Democrats and put some pressure on Daschle to remove Lieberman from his chairmanships, but Daschle saw this as a conflict of interest in a way, and did no such thing.

Edwardsmentum!

If Bush, Jr., didn't seek reelection in 2004, the GOP would still hold the White House that year though because they were stronger on national security than the Democrats.

In Michigan and Florida, hope could go away from for one candidate and be gained by another. McCain has held a narrow lead in both states, and that means an ending for John Engler and a beginning for McCain as the unstoppable frontrunner. However, one of those turned out not to be...


McCain had been vying hard for the endorsement of Jeb Bush, but combined with his general hostility towards the Bush administration, and the fact that Bush had looked more and more favorably towards Frist, McCain failed to catch the endorsement. In addition, Watts campaign looked to lower resources in Florida in the name of cheaper primaries, allowing his numbers to sink and move toward Frist.

McCain decided at that point to stop running away from Republicanism and instead run toward it. He ran on a platform of a strong Iraq mission, applauding the administrations policy decisions on that front. He amped up his fight against pork barrell spending, criticizing both Watts and Frist for projects that they were bringing toward their states. This helped his numbers, and his Super Tuesday was helped immensely by this strategy:



John McCain was looking more and more like the frontrunner, with a strong delegate lead and a growing money chest. However, Bill Frist wasn't about to let this go so easy, and very quickly after the Super Tuesday contests...


On the Republican side, things were still looking like all out civil war, with Frist's resources and endorsements still of abundance, and McCain still looking unacceptable even after his fight for Republican values shook up the race and won him plenty of states. It would have to take the man in the White House to change the tide of this race...


Minority Leader Tom Daschle was quickly losing a grip of the nomination that was almost promised to be his. Following poor debate performances and notable gaffes, he was slipping in his numbers and Howard Dean and John Edwards were quickly gaining on him. The results of the last few primaries surprised many observers:


Senator Edwards wowed Democratic voters. With his youth, his charisma, and his points on poverty, Senator Edwards was quickly becoming the hottest new thing for the Democratic Party. He inspired the people like no one else, and certainly not Tom Daschle. After these set of primaries, Edwards started looking like the one...


Edwards light was starting to outshine that of Howard Dean, whose lone Delaware win caused some concern with donors. It was going to take a win in both of the next two contests in order for voters to continue to take his candidacy seriously, and unfortunately for him:


Dean's loss in Washington would cause his candidacy to no longer be taken as seriously as the contest between Edwards v. Daschle. Despite this, Dean would still continue to be in the running, criticizing both for a perceived willingness to follow the administration on war, and Daschle for his relatively conservative immigration and energy policy views.

Awesome TL! Keep it up!

Thank you!


I'm not so sure, it was pretty close, and a different Democrat/Republican scenario could change things.

It's a great timeline! Keep it up!

February 9th:
Kansas: 64% Frist, 33% McCain, 3% Paul
Louisana: 70% Frist, 27% McCain, 2% Paul

February 12th:
Virginia: 53% Frist, 43% McCain, 3% Paul
Maryland: 47.5% McCain, 46.2% Frist, 4% Paul, 2% Keyes
D.C.: 50% McCain, 45% Frist, 4% Paul

February 19th:
Washington: 52% McCain, 39% Frist, 7% Paul
Wisconsin: 49% McCain, 46% Frist, 4% Paul

February 24th:
Puerto Rico: 82% McCain, 18% Frist


February was a good month for the McCain campaign. In spite of facing a strong challenge from Majority Leader Bill Frist, his pushing toward a strong management of the Iraq war made him more popular in the party than he had been in a long time. After losing the primary in Kansas and Louisana heavily, some worried McCain's nomination was in danger by losing the Potomac Primaries , but managed to slip by with endorsements from Senator John Warner and Governor Bob Ehlrich. While McCain trails in the Texas primary, he narrowly leads in Ohio, and run laps around Frist in the other two.

Frist says he's far from done, but the signs are there: Campaign Co-Chair and Governor of Massachussets Mitt Romney has left the campaign, and he's yet to be replaced. Frist's stump speech has suffered immensely by the last couple of primaries, and he's starting to fall behind in resources. When asked if he would accept a VP spot on the McCain ticket, there was some snap back, but also some acceptance of the possibility. Not only does Frist trail in the primary, but he's also clearly the less electable candidate: McCain's favorability has him still popular, at 49/32, while Frist trails nationally 28/36. Because of Bush's continually narrowing popularity, both lead the Democrats, but the question is how long will this last?


February 8th:
Maine: 43% Dean, 29% Daschle, 27% Edwards

February 10th:
Tennessee: 49% Edwards, 30% Daschle, 20% Dean
Virginia: 48% Edwards, 26% Daschle, 25% Dean

February 14th:
D.C.: 40% Dean, 39% Daschle, 15% Edwards, 6% Sharpton
Nevada: 36% Daschle, 35% Edwards, 28% Dean

February 17th:
Wisconsin: 36% Edwards, 34% Daschle, 29% Dean

Howard Dean withdraws, makes no endorsement

February 24th:
Hawaii: 66% Edwards, 32% Daschle
Idaho: 58% Daschle, 41% Edwards
Utah: 51% Edwards, 48% Daschle


Inspite of having more money, more endorsements, and a record of organization for Democrats, continually Tom Daschle has been upset and beaten by the Edwards campaign. Smartly putting its money where it needs to, it has been avoiding states either already within a range of victory (as polls in Virginia and Tennessee had previously shown), and investing heavily in winnable situations (Utah, Wisconsin). Daschle has shown a surprising lack of adeptness in terms of combating Edwards.

However, Super Tuesday looks like a day for Daschle to recover. Most of the states are big money states, states where Daschle is far more able to compete in. He's put in big block advertising in delegate heavy states like California, New York, Massachusetts, and Ohio, touting his record of supporting working people. Edwards hope is that he pulls closer than expected in the bigger states and sweeps some of these smaller, caucus states.

Debate polling has Edwards consistently ahead, showing him as quicker, with more and more Democrats vehemently against the President, and Daschle's attempts to be the Democrat that can win is not giving them the fuel for their fire. In addition to that, Daschle's connections with lobbying firms has not helped him in anyway, and given more fuel to fire the base towards an Edwards nomination.

I can't imagine McCain losing the nomination back to back.

I like both Daschle and Edwards and would support whoever gets the nomination. Good job!

I agree. Though whoever wins in 2004 would likely lose re-election in 2008 due to the financial crisis.

Liking this scenario.

Surprised Giuliani stayed out, since he would have been popular in 2004 than in 2008.

Giuliani was secretly behind McCain from very early on, and as a result, did not enter because of that support.

Around the beginning of April, John McCain won a commanding victory in the state of Pennsylvania. With this victory, the Republican nominating contest is basically over: Frist had hoped to close the gap to less than 10 in a very McCain favored state, but McCain won by 30. Uniting Republicans of all stripes, McCain became more and more popular, and he started to look like an invincible general election candidate.

On June 5th, however, tragedy struck. On his way to Alaska, McCain's airplane crash landed, killing everyone on-board. The Senator and his wife were both on the plane.


This left a convention of McCain's delegates to decide who would take his place. A lot of the more moderate delegates were divided between Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge and New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, but ultimately conservative delegates had a large majority, and went along with the nomination of McCain's opponent: Majority Leader Bill Frist. This wasn't considered much of an offense to his life: many in the McCain extended family and friends knew Frist and him weren't deeply enemies. They weren't super friendly, but compared to someone closer to J.C. Watts or on the more conservative wing, he was one of the better choices.

Sympathy for Senator McCain allowed for Frist's numbers to increase, and with a vicious Democratic nominating process underway, his favorables were looking stronger than ever, and so were his prospects.



On May 27th, running out of money, definitely out of chances, and barely clinging on to a lead in his home state of South Dakota, Tom Daschle makes an emotional statement withdrawing from the Presidential race. His disappointment shows: he will have no Senate seat to go home to in 2005, he had made it clear that the Presidential race would be his first priority. What a shock for observers that he had lost the nomination he had so strongly fought for and coveted.

Meanwhile, with sympathy toward McCain high and Edwards running low on resources due to a competitive primary, Democratic chances at the Presidency looked lower than ever. Edwards had strongly fought for the nomination, but polls had consistently placed him as the weaker of the two possible general election candidates, and this showed him far behind.


As of July 1st, the only thing that looked like it could help Edwards close the gap and change public opinion was the Democratic nominating process, which was coming up in a weeks time. At this point it seemed like doom for the campaign, but insiders in the campaign knew anything could change in a moment.

On July 7th, Edwards made the coveted VP pick, and it surprised many observers. Picking Former Republican, Former Defense Secretary William Cohen brought up a risky strategy: alienating Democrats in favor of the center. However, William Cohen did do something very good for the Edwards ticket: he brought experience, credibility, and bi-partisanship. Cohen made it known to anyone who would ask that now he was a Democrat, but his rhetoric always smacked of the same centrist pragmatism that was his Senate career.  It helped out a lot with Independents, Republicans, and undecideds, and did a surprising amount early on to boost Edwards numbers.

Republicans went after Cohen, putting pictures all over the internet with Cohen's face over a picture of Benedict Arnold, but the conclusion was already there: Cohen was a strong backing man for Edwards, and it was a sign of good fortune for his campaign.

The Democratic Convention was a wild success. In the second week of July, Democrats brought on all stars: Joe Biden, Bill and Hillary Clinton, Howard Dean, Mario Cuomo, and even brought out unexpected faces: State Senator Barack Obama, wowing the crowd with his hopeful message, and Minority Leader Tom Daschle, who would endorse the ticket strongly, and snipe at his close rival Bill Frist, calling his leadership "Pathetic", issuing a warning to the Republicans "If you run on scaring people, you'll only succeed in doing that."

But the man who came out on top that night was the man at the top of the ticket. Edwards inspired the crowd in a way he never had before, and if you had heard him right, it was like he was talking directly to you.


For the first time in months, it looked like Democrats really had a shot at turning this election around. But it was going to be a long road until then...

Ad season had begun right during the Democratic convention, and with millions more in fundraising, Frist begun to go after Edwards. With his campaign, he ran against Edwards roots as a trial lawyer, running hard on his policies as a liberal. However, these ads seem to lack a certain kick to them. Without the strategic mind of Karl Rove behind the Frist campaign, there was a noticeable void there. These ads didn't make too much of a dent in the Edwards armor, which was starting to build.


With the pick of Pataki, Frist did some to stop the bleeding. However, it didn't do nearly enough: Pataki struck observers as competent but boring, and not nearly enough to carry the state of New York. Giuliani had polled far better in national polls, and didn't even bother conservatives as much as it could've. Simply put, it was good, but could be a lot better.

This started to make conservatives worry. It was almost like they were blowing a very strong advantage early on, and the race is already competitive. The Edwards campaign inherited the Dean infrastructure, surviving off of individual donations, getting more efficient and better oiled. The Frist organization was a shell of the Bush one, large, but increasingly clunky and inefficient.  This was starting to spell doom for the Republicans.


In the Senate, the map begun to look very interesting. Democrats and Republicans both had many possible pick up seats, and many incumbents leaving due to retirement (Dodd, Daschle, and Bennett), or being picked off by a primary challenge (like Arlen Specter).

Democrats have had a lot of chances to lose seats, but they've also done marvels with recruitment. Broad names in states where there definitely shouldn't be a competitive possibility  are competitive. This means the chances for a Democratic majority is existent, the numbers are there, and it's all down to the Presidential election to decide whether that becomes real.

In one of the few uplifting speeches of that night, Arnold Schwarzeneggar struck a strong note with the American people. His speech, putting in our minds an immigrant who loves this country, made the crowds go wild.

Besides Schwarzeneggar, though, the Republican Conventions were mostly a wash. Pataki, never very inspiring in the first place, felt dull. Frist made people question whether or not he should've been the nominee, and left the question of his foreign policy credentials out in the open.

President Bush got up to speak only for a short time, and that was very telling of the mood. It seemed as if the GOP was taking the Presidency for granted: looking at the opinion polls and seeing still regularly large/decent sized leads for the ticket even with the most powerhouse DNC anyone could remember. That, was the mistake of the night.


Compared to where they were, the Edwards campaign looked ready to go. The President's education legislation was becoming increasiningly unpopular, as was the President himself, and Edwards knew where to hit the president on this issue. Combined with attacking the Presidents handling of the economy and the war, and linking it to Frist, it became clear that Frist had been defined by the actions of the President.


The polls should one thing, but momentum clearly showed another.

This has been great, man. Keep going at it!

After three Presidential debates and a Vice Presidential debates, the momentum of Edwards has finally pushed him to a lead after trailing in June by over 20 points. Both candidates made a pact not to talk about the death of Senator John McCain, and not to invoke his image in any of their ads or their debates. The strategy of Edwards was to paint the image of Frist before Frist could paint him, and he managed to do so quite effectively.

Frist was imagined as a foreign policy dunce, a fierce partisan who couldn't care less about the future of America, but instead cared about what was in it for him. The populist message about fixing poverty made ways with many Americans, particularly those in the South and the Rust belt, where Edwards numbers began to balloon. Most importantly, the Edwards campaign took a third way position on foreign policy, talking about specifics and ways to get done with Iraq quickly rather than just chastising the administration.

In truth, Cohen sounded more aggressive than Edwards did during the debates, and Republicans tried to spin his performance as petulant and angry, and put Pataki as someone who was just trying to survive out there.

Even with all that going for the Edwards campaign, however, President Bush's approvals begun recovering after a long weak run, and this made it harder for the Edwards people to call this race anything but a toss-up.

In spite of a pretty poor performance in the West Coast, The Edwards-Cohen ticket won a large electoral victory over Frist/Pataki. The campaign was riddled with a strange absence of President Bush and Vice President Cheney on the campaign trail, a weak campaign structure from Frist/Pataki, and a strong Democratic apparatus. The message from Edwards-Cohen, which was third way on some issues and populist on others, made surprising headway in the South, where they barely lost South Carolina, Kentucky, Arkansas and Louisiana.

With that, Democrats also performed strongly in the Senate races. His results pushed forward a lot of Democrats:


Edwards win managed to sweep in some surprising contenders. Even in the two most unlikely places, Arizona (where McCain's death left a special election) and Oklahoma (where it voted against Gore by over 20 points), Democrats won elections. In spite of that, Democratic seats were left open for Republicans to take, which leaves the Senate in a very competitive place.

Edwards would have to face a divided government. Whether he could handle it, is whats next...

I take it Vitter and Isakson both won their runoffs as well? Still, excellent results.

I forgot Georgia did run offs, I will do those next!

In Georgia, Cliff Oxford faced a hard obstacle: facing a strong candidate in Johnny Isakson, without the turnout of a Presidential election, in deep red Georgia. Money wasn't tight though, as a millionaire, Oxford was able to keep up with Isakson. However, Isakson, as of late taking a populist route, began ragging Oxford's business dealings, and demanding to see his tax returns. This helped Isakson considerably in the run up polls, and Oxford began to drop hard.

Georgia Results:
56.2% Congressman Johnny Isakson
43.8% Businessman Cliff Oxford


Congressman Chris John went hard on the offensive when they made it to the run-off. However, without proper turnout, it was as if he was floundering for anything. Vitter kept on the talking points, and even though Johns margins were creeping closer, Vitter seemed safe. That's why the close margin came as a shock to the Vitter campaign:

Lousiana Result:
50.2% Congressman David Vitter
49.8% Congressman Chris John

On January of 2005, John Edwards was inaugerated as the 44th President of the United States. Getting started right away, he announced a huge amount of cabinet employees and got most of them through with few controversies. He made sure to eliminate just about everyone from the Bush administration, even some of the less controversial ones, to clean out the administration with his own people.

The most controversial pick was that of Wesley Clark for the Department of Energy. Liberals criticized the pick, noting his close relationship with Former Minority Leader Tom Daschle, and demanding a more liberal nominee. Clark noted his support of ethanol and his dedication towards a more energy independent country, but many slammed the book on him. It took convincing of Republicans, which Cohen still had distant but existent relationships, in order to push Clark through.

Republicans attempted to filibuster Richard Halbrooke, former Clinton ambassador, but he nevertheless managed to pass by a relatively narrow 62-35 in the Senate. The quickness of these proceedings was embraced by the press.



In foreign policy, the first elections occurred in Iraq, which Republicans quickly hailed as the beginning of a democratic Iraq. Edwards, testing out a pragmatic foreign policy, acknowledges the war was done under faulty intelligence, and promises to move quickly toward a safer Iraq, keeping troops in the region to help secure progress before any form of exit. This causes some anger from fellow Democrats, but his approvals hold steady. Bombings still occur, and the overall mission is still questionable.

Secretary Holbrooke announced the roll out of a new strategy in combating terror in Afghanistan. Upon receiving new information on the location of Osama Bin Laden, Holbrooke shifted more troops over to Afghanistan and Pakistan in order to search for him. Knocking out terror as a whole required defeating the taliban in their country, and the focus of foreign policy was from then on shifted to that mission.


On an economic agenda, the Edwards people and the Democratic Senate began drafting a large piece of anti-poverty legislation. Minority Leader Jon Kyl said of the legislation in a backroom meeting with Republican Leadership -


This comment sparked a firestorm in the press, and caused Minority Leader Kyl's approvals to drop dramatically. Edwards and many other key members of the administration called on Republicans to denounce the words of Senator Kyl and build on the project. Even Jack Kemp called out Kyl for his comments and said it was shameful that "Republicans won't even talk about poverty!"

More on the Domestic front, Edwards vetoes the Class Action Fairness Act, calling the bill "a travesty, a violation of the peoples rights, and an expansion of power for large corporations". The Senate votes largely in favor of the piece of legislation, but barely miss the veto override requirement (64-33), with some prominent Democrats switching their vote after the Edwards veto. Republicans called the Democrats cowards for their backing off the legislation and the leader of the fight, Senator Chuck Grassley, stated that he would continue to fight for tort reform in the Senate.

Wesley Clark should be Secretary of Defense :P

As of the end of July, Republicans have continued to stall the President's poverty agenda, pointing to high levels of spending and called it a distraction from the War on Terror that is going on. They have similarly blocked other pieces of legislation pushed by the President, wanting to focus on the war at hand.


On July 5th, the Administration stood with Senator Diane Feinstein (D-CA) and Senator Susan Bysiewicz (D-CT) with the introduction of a slightly reformed Assault Weapons Ban. Originally wanting to re-introduce the bill wholesale, Feinstein got concerned when Senators Goddard and Bowles told her straight forward that they would not vote for any Gun Control that isn't changed fundamentally to meet the center. Most vote counters still don't take the bill seriously, with very few Republicans willing to cross over on any Democratic bill, and many Democrats hesitant to join the administration on such a prominent issue as guns.


In Iraq, A Prime Minister was recently elected, and Jalal Talabani was elected President of Iraq. Bombing still occurs in Iraq, and it's still volatile. Republicans have attacked the President mercilessly for his handling of Iraq, even going on to calling him a coward for his shift of focus on Afghanistan. The administration still is very hesitant to any sort of withdraw, much to the impatience of Democratic liberals.

Progress is being made in Afghanistan, however. Major terrorists are being targeted and knocked off in the region, and the administration is heading closer and closer to Osama bin Laden. Defense Secretary Warren Rudman noted progress in this area, as did State Secretary Richard Holbrooke, and many are viewing foreign affairs as a success for the President, but domestic policy to be going through a bad start.

I take it Kaine holds the Virginia governorship for the Democrats.

Warner's massive popularity helps him.

On McCain: I believe Gov. Napolitano would appoint a placeholder.

I also got Salazar winning the Colorado Senate race too.

Normally, I would agree. However to respond to the McCain thing: It was the year of his election. I think Napolitano would just let the election happen. Again, this is me, not really knowing Arizona law, so maybe I'm off.

In Virginia and in New Jersey, Democrats saw the effects of effective/ineffective candidates. Tom Davis ran on a campaign of bipartisanship, running toward the center, criticizing President Edwards for his lack of leadership, not signing a bipartisan tort reform bill, and pushing hard on poverty. By the time the election came around, Tim Kaine, who had been leading until October, had nothing to do but lose.

In New Jersey, Senator Corzine's business dealings increasingly came under scrutiny, and by the time of the election, Corzine was one of the most unpopular people to win elected office. Schundler struck voters as far too conservative for New Jersey, which lead to the very unpopular Jon Corzine to be elected the states Governor, by a shockingly close margin (most polls still had Corzine ahead by 5-10).

Tom Davis is what I think Nicolae Carpathia from the Left Behind books looks like.

If Kaine had lost in 2005 to Davis, would the Dems get him to run for the US Senate in 2006 against Allen ?

We know Mark Warner would likely win the other US Senate seat in 2008.

I'm not sure, probably not since the stench of losing might be too much.

The President begins to face the problems of a divided congress: Gun Control, in spite of being negotiated, is soundly rejected, with Senators Brad Carson, Ben Nelson, Tony Knowles, Blanche Lincoln, Ken Salazar, and Evan Bayh voting against it on the Democratic side, and only Senators Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, and Pat Toomey, a major contributor to the legislation, voting for it on the Republican side. Many Democrats and some Republicans were on the fence on the legislation, and some felt that bringing out Former Senator and VP William Cohen would've pushed this legislation closer to passage, but the filibuster from Senator DeMint ultimately sunk the legislation.

Increasingly, poverty legislation looked impossible. With Senators Brad Carson, Blanche Lincoln, Joe Lieberman, Ben Nelson, and Evan Bayh still on the fence, and very few Republicans are even willing to talk, citing the administrations need for revenue on the project. Senator David Vitter took to the hill to make it clear: the bill will not pass unless there are cuts to other projects and no taxes.

Republicans also started pointing to Edwards as LBJ - a vicious, power hungry man whose appetite for destruction knows no bounds. The failure of Vietnam in Iraq's management, the failure of Poverty legislation to the Good Society, the comparisons fell into place.


On the judiciary, William Rehnquist died on October 3rd, 2005, after a struggle with thyroid cancer, and along with him, Justice O'Connor announced she would leave the court upon the confirmation of her successor. Democrats saw this as an opportunity to put two people forward to the Supreme Court to change the balance of the court. However, the proceedings were some of the most hostile and most partisan ever seen.


The first nominated was Eric Holder for O'Connor's spot in the Court. Eric Holder was the deputy Attorney General under Bill Clinton, and was heavily criticized for his role as Attorney General. Holder struck some Democrats as a problem, due to his views on national security and the Patriot Act, and this allowed for a rare bipartisan coalition to form on both sides. Diane Feinstein voted with Lindsay Graham, but Ron Wyden voted with David Vitter, as more partisan Republicans rejected the pick as "packing the courts". The vote ended up an embarrassingly narrow 53-44, but Holder was confirmed.


The other nominee was Sonia Sotomayor. Less controversial than Holder in terms of her judicial record, but more so in terms of her past. She was the beneficiary of affirmative action, causing many Republicans to say that she did not earn her position. Striking a nerve, she spoke out against these comments as a kind of racism, and after her hearing, not many were questioning her qualifications. She passed more easily - 63-32, but for a Supreme Court nominee, still very narrowly.


On foreign affairs, prisoners in Iraqi prisons were found to be tortured, beaten, and starved. After some progress in terms of getting the country together in the middle of July, and it seems the country is unraveling. More problems are arising, more bombings in the country are occurring, and more people are dying. The decision keeps coming to Edwards door: should we leave the chaotic mess in Iraq to save our own men, or should we continue to try to stabilize the region. Public opinion had continued to sour on the War, looking at it as another Vietnam situation. The Edwards people were still concerned over whether or not to leave with Halbrooke feeling like leaving is the right decision, and Cohen and Rudman still concerned over whether that's the right decision.

The beginning of the electoral season has proven to be a strong recruiting cycle for Republicans. With the retirement of popular Senator Daniel Akaka, One term Republican Governor Linda Lingle has announced her candidacy for Senate, and at the right time too, her popularity puts her in the top tier of Governors in the nation. she leads Democratic primary challengers Congressman Ed Case and Congressman Neil Abercrombie by 5 and 6 points. In other states, Republlican recruits are competitive or near competitive (Former Governor Bill Weld trails by 7, but that makes him far more competitive than many of the last nominees for Ted Kennedy's seat. This cycle is proving to be toxic for Democrats.


With that being said, there are pick-up oppurtunties for Democrats: Even though democrats dislike Lieutenant Governor Knoll, Rick Santorum proves to be one of the least popular Senators in the country. Even Mike DeWine and Jim Talent, other relatively unpopular Republicans, have drawn meek opposition (DeWine leads Sherrod Brown by 10 points, Talent leads Nancy Farmer by 8 points, a strong margin for Missouri). The most unpopular Senator, Jon Kyl with a lowly 36% Approval rating, has remained content to fight for his re-election, maneuvering his way out of a Republican primary and battling Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon for the political fight of his life.

Republican primaries are also proving to play a pivotal role in the control of the Senate: Senator Bill Frist faces a strong primary challenge from Former Congressman Ed Bryant, and if he loses, Congressman Harold Ford faces an easier set of stairs to climb. Even more so in Rhode Island, where Lincoln Chafee leads Sheldon Whitehouse by 10 points, and Steve Laffey loses by that same 10 point margin to Whitehouse.


Democrats have a lot of Gubernatorial seats to fear losing. Incumbents are falling hard, particularly in states with strong Republican recruits. Only Maryland, where Bob Ehrlich faces the Maryland electorate, and New York, where Pataki faces the same, do Republicans look like they will have a hard time re-electing their Governor.


The plus, however, is a lot of Republicans are retiring, leaving oppurtunties for Democratic pick-ups. The hottest races are in states were liberal Republicans are running for Senate: State Senate Majority Leader Colleen Hanabusa leads Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona narrowly for Governor, as does Deborah Markowitz over Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie. Out of nowhere State Senator Scott Brown has come to a shocking close margin already to U.S. Attorney Deval Patrick.

Kulongonski is the only outright Democratic Party retirement, and that's because his approval ratings are in the dumps and he would trail his primary opponent, Jim Hill, by a 10 point margin (44-34). Same happened with Frank Murkowski, but small town mayor Sarah Palin leads Mark Begich by a substantial margin.

Aw, Bernie's in danger. :(

Also, this is a great TL, please continue! :D

On February 22nd of 2006, Senator Chris Cannon (R-UT) and Senator Erskine Bowles (D-NC) put forward a bipartisan plan to reform Social Security and Medicare. The plan has members of both parties fuming: the plan raises the retirement age to 68, changes some elements that ultimately cuts benefits, and keeps Social Security solvent for another 30 years. Most Republicans critique the plan as not going far enough, while Democrats see it as an attack on Social Security. However, many Republicans and Democrats who are against it at the moment are saying that they would be willing to come to the table and negiotiate to find a better solution and amend the bill.

Co-Sponsors include Senators Ron Wyden (D-OR), Brad Carson (D-OK), Ben Nelson (D-NE), Evan Bayh (D-IN) , John Warner (R-VA), Pat Toomey (R-PA), Johnny Isakson (R-GA), Kit Bond (R-MO), Chuck Hagel (R-NE).

Poverty has continued to stall, with Republicans continuing to budge and Democrats such as Brad Carson, Ben Nelson, Joe Lieberman, Blanche Lincoln, and Evan Bayh still holding back on the bill. However, one notable Republican hopped on board: Senator John Warner of Virginia. After conceding on a couple of provision, the aging Republican Senator kept his word and came on to support the legislation. In a televised statement, he said -


Naturally, Senator Warner has earned the spite of his fellow Republicans, with some in leadership threatening to take away his positions on all of his committees. Warner announced at that time he would not be running for re-election, so this may be the last straw of whether he resigns before his term ends, or if he just finishes out his term.


On March 1st, 2006, scandal hit the Agriculture Department, after a discovery that hundreds of millions of Agriculture subsidies have been given to dead farmers. The programs ineffeciency is being hit hard by Republicans and Democrats, with Agriculture based Senators Chuck Grassley, Tom Harkin, Brad Carson, and Jim Inhofe calling for Secretary Vilsack's resignation. Vilsack's office has reported that they will be working hard to fix the loophole, but some sources on the hill are saying that after the introduction of reform to the program, Vilsack will be leaving the administration.

Some are saying this scandal goes deeper, but at this moment, no evidence of that has arisen.


With the agriculture department debacle, a stalling economy, and a unwillingness to back a lot of bills that reach his desk, President Edwards has had a bad first year in office. Foreign policy is where things have seemingly gone better, but the terror situation has not gotten significantly better, and more and more Americans are becoming testy on Iraq. Only 28% of Americans say we should stay in Iraq, with the significant change being a massive drop in Republican support. Senators Chuck Hagel and John Warner introduced legislation that would get troops out of Iraq within the next year, which was endorsed by several more liberal Democrats and some moderate Republicans. However, the bill failed to reach post-filibuster range, and was rejected.

The administrations combination of populist domestic policy and third way foreign policy, while on the outskirts what got him elected and seemingly popular, has thus far proven to be hindrance, with his rejection of a lot of bills causing grief among all sides. Indeed, it's time for a change of heart, before its too late.

Would we see any African American governors elected during the Edwards presidency ?

What happened to Deval Patrick?

Deval Patrick is running for Governor of Massachussets against State Senator Scott Brown, who is surprisingly capable at this point in time. It's a whole 'nother thing whether he wins against Patrick though.

Patrick BETTER win because most people are tired of GOP governors after 16 years in Massachusetts.

lol k

In what continues to be a disappointing senate election for Republicans, Chris Cannon has introduced with Oregon Senator Ron Wyden and Montana Senator Max Baucus an alternative plan for the New War on Poverty. It gets rid of a lot of key centerpieces to the Edwards reform such as replacing the housing program with a housing credit, but the plan is considered by many in the Senate an alternative with a stronger chance of passage. The administration is still mulling a decision to promote the alternative or fight for the current bill, but either way, passage of any Poverty bill is going to be difficult due to a filibuster by Senator McConnell.

Cannon has led the charge on many bipartisan reforms, causing his numbers to be in the dumps among Republican voters. Cannon has said he intends to keep going as a Senator of Utah, but chances are, his re-election chances are looking tough already.

In spite of some populist elements in his campaign, Edwards signed the Bahrain-United States free trade agreement. This came as no surprise to those on the inside: while Edwards was opposed to Free Trade in the Senate, he had forced through some stronger mechanisms to make it so that it wasn't a complete cop out, but overall, for his original fans and suppoters, it was a sell out. Overall, though, this issue caused little to no headway to his already dismal approvals.


President Edwards, after some controversy over a lower level administration member resigning due to some belief that he would veto the reauthorization of the Patriot Act, signed it. This struck some Democrats as a defeat for electing Edwards as President, but others saw the Patriot Act as unfortunate but necessary. That was the message the President and Vice President sent, seeing as their continued third way tactics on Foreign Policy were in action.

In May, the Iraqi Government began to function, and several Republicans and Democrats introduced timetables for troop withdraws. Chuck Hagel and Russ Feingold put together a Senate package that gained the most support, but failed under the weight of mainline Democrats and Neoconservative Republicans. Under the weight of this movement, Edwards announced a "we broke it, we have to fix it" strategy on Iraq, saying that we need to wait until the Iraqi Government wants us to leave before we can leave the region.

Edwards approval puts him in a dangerous zone for Democrats in the midterm, but not only that, his numbers put him in a bad range to run for re-election. He's looking more and more like a one term President.


The first major poll of the next Presidential cycle has Edwards looking way behind. He trails every single Republican, even Ron Paul and John Bolton. He faces worst against Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who he trails by a whopping 19 points. However, Edwards people say they aren't worried about the election at the moment, it's clear that he will be a facing an uphill battle should he want to be re-elected President.

The most aggressive campaigners at the moment are Governor Mitt Romney and Former Congressman J.C. Watts, who have both been talking to fundraisers and have been fairly obvious about their ambitions. Rudy Giuliani and Jeb Bush, both considered top tier for the role, have been less obvious, but both have shown some willingness to run for President.

Democrats faced a hard time with mid-terms: after failures of the administration on war on poverty legislation and stalling progress in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Democratic Party lost a number of important seats while failing to knock out any of the feared Republicans. Controversial Minority Leader Jon Kyl will be moving to Majority Leader after defeating Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, and Senator Rick Santorum defeated Lieutenant Governor Catherine Baker Knoll.

As for the House, Republicans picked up 30 seats, growing their known majority. However, with the retirement of Dennis Hastert, Eric Cantor moves up to Speaker of the House, leap frogging John Boehner, who holds on to his role as Majority Leader.

With the announcement of these victories, Republicans are calling on President Edwards to co-operate with Republicans, announcing an agenda of cutting spending, lowering taxes beyond the Bush rates, and putting forward bipartisan tort reform. As well, foreign policy leaders in the Republican Party are actively pushing President Edwards to take a more proactive role in Iraq, noting the administrations failures in the region.


It was clear to some, even in the administration, that the President had lost control of the White House. Education Secretary Rahm Emanuel resigned to run for Senate in Illinois, and Tom Vilsack resigned as Agriculture Secretary under heat for the Dead Farmers scandal, which had bloated increasingly into wasted funds all across the Farm Subsidies program. Many in the administration quietly had doubts over whether the President even wanted to continue this far out.

His speech post-election was strong, but it wasn't believeable: Edwards didn't seem into anything he was saying. He was in a funk of sorts. The question now is whether or not he will be able to escape.

Bill Nelson goes down in flames ? How did the 2006 Governorships turn out state by state?

January 2007 - President Edwards began the new administration amidsts the failure of his war on poverty legislation, killed by a vote of 53-45. Republican Senators Norm Coleman, John Warner, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, Chris Cannon, and Gordon Smith voting with the Democrats, and Democratic Senators Brad Carson, Ben Nelson, Evan Bayh, and Tony Knowles voting with Republicans. One senator from each side (Paul Sarbanes and Orrin Hatch) did not vote on the matter, both absent from Washington that day.

The administration became more co-operative on a couple of issues - on guns, the administration searched strenuously for a middle ground, communicating with new, swing Republican Senators like Linda Lingle, Michael Steele, Bill Weld, Tom Kean Jr., and Pat Toomey. Along with that, the Edwards administration caved on entitlement reform, with Treasury Secretary Roger Altman stating that certain things must be done in order to make Social Security solvent. Republicans are still holding out on raising the retirement age (wanting 70 rather than 68), but it looks like that is more and more likely.

Because of this, Democrats have increased their fury on Edwards, and are beginning to think of dumping the incumbent President. One person who is incresingly tired of President Edwards and making it known is Senator John Kerry, the Massachusetts Senator who emphasizes his foreign policy credentials and his bipartisan ability, who has criticized Edwards for being a flat out failure. Kerry has made it known his Presidential ambitions before with his failed 2004 campaign, and is about to make it known again.


Meanwhile, the Republican Party looked at its position with optimistic caution: knowing that Democrats are weak, but keenly aware of previous occurrences of the situation (such as the 2004 elections). Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Former Governor Jeb Bush were looking like leading frontrunners, but there was the question over who would be the leading conservative candidate. Several people were vying for that position, but the one who seemed to keep coming up was Former Governor Bill Owens of Colorado. In spite of some confusing gaffes and his divorce in his second term, Owens held high ratings with Coloradoans, and was ranked as one of the best Governors of the nation. Should he run, he might take some spotlight away from Jeb Bush.

Congressman J.C. Watts has already made it known that he will not make another run for President, instead has made it known he will either seek the office of Oklahoma Governor or Oklahoma Senator in 2010, and that marks off one potential candidate. Fred Thompson looks increasingly less likely, but conservative voters are still saying that he would be an optimistic choice for President.

April 2007 - Polls continue to have President Edwards in a very unfavorable position. Senator John Kerry, who has been on a speaking tour criticizing the President, has not yet made an announcement, but most sources close to Kerry say he is more likely to run than he is to not run. On the otherside, Fmr. Vermont Governor and liberal Howard Dean has also been very critical of the Presidents tactics and abilities to get the job done, but is viewed as more unlikely to run. DNC Chairman Tom Daschle, another option Dems had of offing President Edwards, has decisively rejected talk, saying he will not run against the President. However, he also made no concession of endorsement, and maybe a worthy ally to whoever challenges Edwards.

But either way, Democrats face a starkly uphill battle. Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani announced his run for the Presidency in late January, and has been holding a steady lead over Fred Thompson, someone who conservatives are pressuring more and more, and after a long period of not caring, is looking into a potential run. That would do some damage to promising conservative Governors, Mark Sanford of South Carolina and Bill Owens of Colorado, who are running are very good early operation. Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania also announced his candidacy, and while looked at by many pundits as a long shot, has a chance of running hard in the state of Iowa and appealing to christian voters, a strong segment of Republican Primary voters.

July 10th, 2007 - the day after Fred Thompsons announcement, and already pundits are talking about it: what the hell just happened? It was sloppy organized, horribly timed, and by the time Thompson got on stage, he put everyone to sleep. He didn't even sound like he wanted to be President. His numbers are consistent everywhere, but it looks like in the next couple of months, they are going to drop. His campaign has already said he will not compete in the Iowa strawpoll, leaving Bill Owens out there to sweep.

The campaign that's on fire is that of Bill Owens. Giuliani has faced some gaffes on the trail, including taking a cellphone call during a rally, but Owens operation has been tiddy. He now possesses a 6 point lead in Iowa, the first voting state, and narrowly trails Rudy Giuliani on New Hampshire. His campaign is wonderfully positioned for the first batch of primaries, the ultimate deciders of this race.

Governor Mark Sanford, a key player in the primary and a strong receiver of votes should Thompson's campaign dissolve, received a key endorsement from J.C. Watts a former and maybe even future Presidential contender. This makes his insurgent campaign all the more formidable. Pundits are picturing a Owens and Sanford race, even with Giuliani leading both candidates by over 20 nationally.


July 10th, 2007 - The President continues to be in peril, as Senator John Kerry is roaming the campaign trail and making it known that this campaign, if he is not nominated, will be a referendum on this Presidents policy failures and a lack of movement on the state of Iraq and Afghanistan. Kerry is gaining endorsements from both more liberal Democrats who view Edwards recent willingness to work on Social Security a betrayal, and more conservative Democrats who view Edwards unwillingness to move on his War on Poverty reform a sign that he lacks bipartisan credentials. It seems like President Edwards was doomed.

Congressman Kucinich also announced he would run for President, but to very little notice. Indeed, he would be running as an insurgent liberal candidate with very little funds, small amount of name recognition, and little ability to move amongst two giants. It was David v. two Goliaths, he would say.

President Edwards already began working on cleaning up his image, Gun Control was moving through the Senate quickly, with a strong amount of newly elected Republicans voting on it. The House still looked like a large task for the President, but many Northeastern Republicans showed some willingness to expand background checks.

Kerry could bring up Edwards' skeletons.

After a dramatic push in Iowa, Bill Owens wins the Ames Iowa Straw Poll by a large margin. However, two notable things happened as well: the surge of Rick Santorum, who many predicted would only get single digits due to his abysmal fundraising, and the write-in campaign of Rick Perry, who many are thinking will run for President in 2008. Governor Mark Sanford slightly underperformed expectations, though no one expected a victory from him. The worst performance was not Chuck Hagel in last place, though his campaign is in terrible shape, it was fourth place of Former Senator Fred Thompson. Within a couple of weeks, excitement for his campaign has already dried up due to his completely uninspiring performance in the first Republican primary debate. Mayor Rudy Giuliani, as expected, opted out of the straw poll, as his numbers in Iowa are in the single digits.


In the first Republican Debate, Governor Owens came off as the strongest candidate, coming in at #1 in most post debate polls. Mayor Giuliani had his moments too, but when it came to questions of terror, he came off as comically over the top and scary. He also showed thin skin, getting clearly irritated when Governor Sanford provoked him on gun control. Senator Santorum went after Hagel and Paul on their rhetoric against the Iraq war, calling both "isolationists", and calling on them to renounce their views. He also ran as the working class candidate, and called out Governor Sanford for his weak economic record in South Carolina.

Senator Chuck Hagel has already made it known his frustration with the parties direction, and is seen as the most likely candidate to leave before the primaries even start. His campaign has stalled in Iowa, is trailing in 3rd in Nebraska, and is strained for cash, coming in last place in fundraising (even behind Former U.N. Ambassador John Bolten). Some even think that Hagel may endorse Senator Kerry, in his effort to off President John Edwards.

November - In the first major development, the Bernard Kerik scandal has begun to hit Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and while he still leads nationally, he has finally lost his lead in the state of New Hampshire. The main person who has gained from the losses of Giuliani is obviously Colorado Governor Bill Owens, who has run as the compassionate conservative who can put forward bold policies for Republicans. Governor Mark Sanford has focused on a pent up win in South Carolina and campaigning hard in Florida, but his Iowa numbers have been robust considering his struggles. Still, it's no surprise that Senator Rick Santorum is passing him, and is starting to give Owens some troubles in Iowa. In spite of his weak fundraising, Santorum has made it known that he is the candidate for Iowa voters, and his numbers there are continuing to grow.

With the development of Bernard Kerik, some major Republicans have backed out of their endorsements of Rudy Giuliani. Governor Charlie Crist of Florida, originally planning to endorse Giuliani, has backed out completely, and is still waiting for someone to court his vote. Owens and Sanford are currently fighting for that endorsement, which could prove to be critical in the Florida primary.


November - Making serious waves on the internet may be the first ever #, which was used by Senator Kerry, when he ended every speech he would say #RetireThisPresident, which has become a part of people's mindsets everywhere. Edwards accomplished a small gun control package in August, but nothing since then of any meaningful nature, and he has signed the watered down Republican budget, leading to more Democratic anger. Since then, he now trails Senator John Kerry by 9 points in the Democratic Primary. However, there is a silver lining - Edwards has a stronger organization in Iowa. Even though Kerry leads, many insiders in Iowa say that Kerry doesn't stand a chance. A surprise win in Iowa for Edwards could lead voters to return.

That being said, confidence in the war and the economy are low, and President Edwards is facing the brunt of that at town halls across the country, even people using the hashtag in front of him. Still, some are becoming more sympathetic to his cause, as he sat down and negotiated new Free Trade agreements with other countries and has still been fighting Republicans on their proposals, vetoing a tax cut and education voucher bill.

After massive resources spent, Owens still holds a strong lead over both Rick Santorum and Mark Sanford. However, his lead has been slipping, with a 13 point lead in November turning into a 6 point lead in January. Still, many were surprised when this was the result from the Iowa Caucuses:


After all that money being thrown into the race, Owens lost in an upset to the second lowest fundraiser in the entire race. Santorum visited every single county in Iowa, did a retail politics strategy, doing town hall after town hall trying to win all the votes he could Iowa. Ron Paul did something similiar - he visited a large chunk of counties in Iowa, and managed to pull off a surprise 4th place - ahead of Fred Thompson.

Things looked bleak for Thompson and Giuliani, the original two frontrunners for the nomination, and they looked like they were being run out of their party. Still, Giuliani fought hard for a win in New Hampshire, where he narrowly trailed Former Governor Bill Owens. Unfortunately, Ron Paul's anti-war rhetoric, due to the current President in charge most likely, had been gaining more traction than expected, and New Hampshire seemed to doom the Former Mayor of New York City -


After this point, Giuliani's fundraising dried, and even though he continued to campaign until Florida, his campaign was not considered serious anymore. Post-New Hampshire polling put him barely in double digits, while Bill Owens rose to the race frontrunner. The question now is, whether the front-runner can hold on.


Meanwhile in the Democrat race, President John Edwards began to be able to fight back. Citing Kerry's record of supporting the Iraq war in it's originality with no apologies, he ran as a populist again, citing the problems of congress as a result of Republican obstruction. With a finger on the pulse of the Iowa electorate, Edwards managed to win a surprising result.


And after the Iowa Caucuses, news only got better for President Edwards - they have the location of Osama Bin Laden, and are on the way to knocking him off. This rallied the troops and raised Edwards approval to positive for the first time since 2005. New Hampshire looked like it could be a campaign ender for John Kerry, and as it turned out, Edwards managed a massive upset in the state after trailing by 30 just two months ago.


Kerry noted after his loss in New Hampshire that he had no intentions on leaving the race, but it looked like his campaign was dead. The post-NH polls have Kerry trailing by over 30 points. President Edwards began to run some general election type material, while Kerry's fundraising dried up. In a surprise, the President looked like a surefire win for his parties nomination.

Just after national polls started to put Senator Santorum as the main conservative challenge to Governor Owens, he loses the narrow contest in Michigan by a larger than expected margin. The Owens organization simply out-manuevered Senator Santorum at just about every turn. Even among working families, Santorum trailed Governor Owens by one. This has left some hoping for a challenge to abandon Santorum's bid. Even though his presence is still strong in the race, his momentum since Iowa has gone down.

Leading many donors to start looking again at Governor Mark Sanford. Mark Sanford has not run as strong a campaign as many expected, but he has run as a consistent, confidence inspiring conservative, and a challenge to the more establishment favored Owens. In spite of some polls putting Owens in contention in Sanford's own South Carolina, it proved to not even be a contest:


Governor Sanford has seen a surge in the state of Florida, and as a result, the well organized Owens campaign is fighting back hard. Negative ads have never been so prominent. Sanford criticized Owens record for increasing taxes, while Owens has criticized Sanford for his odd tactics in the state of South Carolina and his weak economic record. Some are saying this is an opportune time for Mayor Giuliani, whose campaign has been floundering, to come up and surprise both candidates. However, judging by his numbers, his campaign has been shrinking incredibly, and after weeks of being in first place in Florida, he fell to 2nd last week, and 3rd this week. Even if he tries to ramp up efforts in the state, it looks increasingly unlikely for a Giuliani comeback.

Next Up: Democrats Pre-Super Tuesday!

President Edwards sweeps the next three contests, to little surprise after upsetting in New Hampshire. However, Kerry's results in Florida managed to be a strong improvement from South Carolina, and that is because of an impassioned speech Kerry gave, displaying his emotion and showing that he isn't a robot. The tears managed to boost Kerry's numbers and made him more competitive. Still, he trails by over 10, and the Edwards campaign by this point had more endorsements and was better organized.


At every turn President Edwards managed to out-maneuver Senator Kerry, and as a result, Kerry withdrew from the Presidential contest the day after Super Tuesday. Still, his speech ignored President Edwards, and instead talked about moving forward on economic issues in the U.S., including reforms to secure our healthcare system for the future. This left Kerry in strong standing with Democrats, and he's now considered a future nominee, even with his weak performance in 2004.

Edwards approvals had been steadily rising since the passage of Universal Background Checks,  and the news on the hill is that the administration has made strong mends with moderate Republicans. The administration and Bill Weld passed a small scale infrastructure bill, with Linda Lingle, the administration passed storm prevention, and with David Vitter, the administration passed a long term fix for the problems of Lousiana and reforms to FEMA. In addition, foreign operations are clearer, Iraq violence is down, and things are looking more and more prosperous. Edwards holds a five point lead (49-44) over the top Republican (Owens) in the field, and an 11 point lead (51-40 and 49-38) over the two weakest (Santorum, Paul).

Mark Sanford's win in Florida has almost entirely erased the national gap between him and Bill Owens, leaving Rick Santorum in the dust. Ron Paul continues to have strong support in caucus states and in New England, but his chances are considered small, even as he's gained a stronger and stronger following since his 04 run. Giuliani endorsement only slowed Sanford's momentum a little, and it looks like it won't be a complete wipe out in Super Tuesday.

Still, Sanford's organization has been weaker than Owens, and Super Tuesday is all about having a strong apparatus at work. Santorum has worked to win some states, but the only state that has Santorum ahead is Arkansas, where he has the notable endorsement of Governor Mike Huckabee. Meanwhile, Sanford has consolidated the south, but beyond their, his numbers aren't as good as he is nationally. The Super Tuesday primaries are dominantly West and New England, and both of those regions are either weak for Sanford or strong for Owens. Either way, this is a contest that may halt the re-birth of Mark Sanford.

Owens - Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts, Montana, New Jersey, New York, Utah
Sanford - Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee
Santorum - Arkansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota


After Super Tuesday, Governor Owens returned to the lead, and Santorum managed to rise to the occasion and win some surprising victories in Minnesota and Missouri. Sanford accused the Republican Committee of stacking the deck in these primaries, but ultimately it was seen as a big victory for Governor Owens. Nevertheless, the next bunch of primaries looked to favor either Santorum or Sanford.

In spite of a good Super Tuesday performance, the movement of conservatives continued toward Sanford, and after holding a strong lead in Kansas, Sanford managed to catch up quickly and he won the primary and many primaries moving forward. Santorum's stock went down and Sanford became the conservative challenger to Bill Owens.

Senate races have not moved with President Edwards. The recent accomplishments of the administration have been a lot of the administrations doing, and like Clinton before him, President Edwards approvals show little coat-tails. A lot of incumbent Democrats are at risk - Mark Pryor, Tom Harkin, Mary Landrieu, Tim Johnson and Jay Rockefeller are either close or are trailing their opponents. Republicans are even thinking that Carl Levins seat is available, though many pundits disagree, especially with Pete Hoekstra leading.

Still Bill Owens seems to be trying to control who gets nominated. Santorum-endorser and Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is being challenged by Gunner DeLay, a candidate endorsed by Owens. Chief of Staff David Young is surging in the polls, and he is also an Owens endorsed candidate, after the weak campaign Greg Ganske and Matt Whittaker mustered in 2002, Owens wanted to take no risks. Many of these Owens backed candidates are negatively viewed by conservative wing as crapitalists and special interest guys, Still, they have been gaining momentum in recent primaries.

Democrats also seem to be risking perfectly good Senate seats. In New Jersey, corrupt congressman Rob Andrews leads by the sheer force of name recognition and the fact that the Democratic field is large. He may get in luck and face Schundler in the general, but likely Zimmer is going to win the Republican nod, and if its a Zimmer-Andrews race, New Jersey may get its second Republican Senator.

Open seats lean Republican, but not all of them. The purest toss-up of all is the Virginia Senate, with the current Governor Tom Davis and the Former Governor Mark Warner battling it out for dominance. This will be the most contentious and negative race of the year, as both are extremely popular Governors.

May 12th, 2008 - After running a tough campaign, Mark Sanford, in tears, withdrew from the Presidential race. Many pundits saw this as the end of Sanford's days as a national contender, as the press conference in which he withdrew was odd and visibly upsetting (not to mention too long, at nearly an hour and a half). This did wonders, ironically, to unite the party behind Bill Owens, a candidate who, due to his second term run to raise taxes, was not so popular among conservatives. Still, even with the Senate races going in favor of the Republicans, Owens numbers did not hold up to Edwards, and was about to get worse...


A small gorup of specialized troops in Afghanistan cornered Osama Bin Laden and killed him. This was a large mark of victory for President Edwards, who campaigned as a third way leader on Foreign Policy, and his foreign policy team, including Vice President William Cohen, praised the mission as a huge success. Combined with recent accomplishments by the President by pulling the strings of liberal Republicans, within a matter of 6 months Edwards has seen a unprecedented reversal of fortunes and approval ratings. Now the President leads his Republican opponent by eleven points (53-42). Nevertheless, Republicans are citing the success as one of Bush's accomplishments, and criticizing the President for being so public about this foreign policy matter.

With general election season under way, many were wondering who Bill Owens would pick for his Vice President. Speculation included Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey, Former Oklahoma Congressman J.C. Watts, Hawaii Senator Linda Lingle, and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. Right out the gate two people denied entirely Vice Presidential speculation - Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, and Virginia Governor Tom Davis. Among the people there, the most likely two are Condoleezza Rice, who was a loyal campaigner for Owens, and J.C. Watts, who would unite the party. Still, some are thinking Owens would make a bolder pick, and Lingle is looking more and more interesting to Republican moderates. That being said, Lingle is the biggest risk - more than once Lingle has negotiated with the Edwards administration to pass her bills that include pork for Hawaii, and she has fiscal conservatives boiling over that.

June 13th, 2008 - Vice President William Cohen, Former Republican Senator, has announced he will not run again with President Edwards. Citing a need for domestic focus and his age, Cohen made headlines by being the First Vice President in many years to do so. Democrats, while appreciative of his experience, are excited by the prospect of picking a Vice President, and speculation included Illinois Senator Barack Obama, Former Florida Senator Bob Graham, Delaware Senator Joe Biden, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, and Attorney General Dennis Archer.

Still, Cohen was a popular Vice President, and even as Edwards dipped heavily, Cohen was narrowly popular. This causes Edwards numbers to dip a bit, in addition to the strong campaign Owens is running at the moment.


Former President George W. Bush, with high approval ratings, is touring around the country with Owens and making the case for the Republican ticket. Bush, currently at 57-37 favorables, is avoiding direct criticisms of the administrations, and instead making the case for Owens as the ticket that will bring forward American prosperity. Owens, somewhat drained in resources due to a tough primary campaign, is riding along with Bush to replenish, and the joint interview on ABC has provided a small boost in the Owens numbers, trailing the incumbent President by only 8 leading up to the conventions in September.

Still, things look tough for Owens. Like in the 2004 General Election, Edwards is running on populist outrage, this time aimed at Republicans obstructing his agenda of fighting poverty. In addition, Edwards has revealed a healthcare plan that includes a public option, citing the popularity of a public option as the basis for his campaign. Many Americans approve of his plan, and Republicans seem to be taking too long to tackle the plan, but already there are murmurings of calling it a government take-over of healthcare.

Republicans lead in fundraising for congressional and Senate races, but President Edwards leads Governor Owens in fundraising on the Presidential side, due to Edwards strong repudiation of tort reform and his embrace of some changes to social security. Wall Street is still undecided on who to support in the general election, and that has hurt the campaign of Governor Owens.

Bill Owens is too marionette-looking to become president.

Edwards/Graham isn't too far outside the realm of possibility...

That's what I was going for! Fun, but not outside the realm of possibilities.

July 2008 - With the month of July opening up, Republican insiders in the Owens Presidential campaign leaked his potential Vice President. The top three speculated candidates continued their tenure, but with one surprising addition. Tennessee Senator Lamar Alexander, an early endorser of the Owens campaign, has been added to the list. This has made waves among the press, who have considered Owens a Republican moderate, and Alexander a fellow Republican moderate. Most are thinking that Owens needs a contrast - from moderate to conservative. However, some are saying that Alexander on the ticket enhances foreign policy experience, and doubles down on a moderation.

The President's approval ratings are continuing to slip after a high from Osama Bin Laden. Even with a declining economy, the Presidents jobs bill, the Edwards Employment Act, flopped hard on the Senate floor, getting only 30 Democratic votes. Combine that with the burgeoning scandal over at the Veterans Affairs office of duplicated names and lists causing thousands of deaths, and we get the President back under 50. He still holds a lead over Governor Owens, whose recent appearances haven't been so strong. By this time he's starting to get a reputation as a gaffe machine, especially after commenting that "capturing Obama would've been done in a second Bush term anyway!".

August 2008 - President John Edwards received a major bump in his campaign for re-election when he announced his Vice Presidential candidate, Senator Barack Obama. Obama is seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party, winning a convincing election over a strong Republican contender in Illinois, and giving a rousing keynote at the 2004 DNC. This perfectly followed up to the Democratic National Convention, which was disappointing at best considering the strong performance in 2004. It seemed as if every person was speaking as a potential 2012 candidate. The keynote speaker, New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, gave a speech that didn't mention Edwards until the last five minutes. Others did the same, but basically until Hillary's husband Bill, Edwards, and Obama, the DNC was one big festival of self-promotion.

Still, Bill Clinton knocked out of the park as usual, Obama, announcing the President, knocked the Republicans for four years of "Obstruction, Obstruction, Obstruction", and Edwards, promising a healthcare plan with a public option, a country with less violence, and pounding his chest over the defeat of Osama Bin Laden. The convention added on to the boost from the nomination of Barack Obama, overall giving a decent boost for the President, but not an exciting one.


Meanwhile, one Republican candidate removed themselves from Vice Presidential Contention - Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. In an interview on Fox News, Pawlenty flat out denied speculation that he would be a candidate for President. He instead said he would stand by his state and finish out his term for Governor. When asked if Owens lost, would he run in 2012, he gave no denial to interest in the office in the future, but even when provoked, could not say whether he would or wouldn't.

Owens began to repair his campaign in the midsts of the blitz of Democratic coverage. He debated Mark Sanford, filing in for John Edwards, and kept on working on his chops. After a couple of months with the perception as a gaffe machine, Owens was looking to change the story on his candidacy.

Did the RNC already happen?

The Senate Primaries have decided who will face incumbents/fight for open seats. Deeply favored people originally, in a lot of cases, did not win their primaries. Fmr. Congressman Greg Ganske narrowly loses in an upset to Owens-endorsed, Grassley Chief of Staff David Young. Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land upsets the far less electable Congressman Pete Hoekstra in the race for Michigan Senate. And Former Congressman Pat Williams upsets Former Republican State Senator and Schweitzer-endorsed John Bohlinger for Montana Senate.

Still, some of the ones originally favored made it out. In spite of a spirited campaign from Gunner DeLay, Former Governor Mike Huckabee will face Senator Mark Pryor, though admittedly bruised from the primary. Dick Zimmer and Rob Andrews will face each other, though a strong third party is likely as both candidates are not too well liked.

The biggest upset of all was in South Dakota, where Kristi Noem began polling below 10% compared to Lieutenant Governor Dennis Daugaard and Attorney General Larry Long. However, Long and Daugaard faced a brutal primary, and as a result, Noem steadily rose in the polls, and Noem will be the one facing Senator Tim Johnson.

Democrats have a silver lining of sorts though - Mark Begich continues a steady rise in the polls since the controversies of Ted Stevens have arose, Wayne Allard continues to be a very weak incumbent, and Republicans nominated the controversial Steve Pearce for Senate. Still, the stronger nominees in some less likely but controversial states such as Michigan and Iowa seem to be rising in the polls and causing trouble for Democratic incumbents.

God damn it, that's right, I forgot the order of the conventions. Oh well.

September 7th, 2008 - A little over a week earlier, Owens finally revealed his VP choice, and it turned out to be his late choice, Tennessee Senator Lamar Alexander. Doubling down on a moderate image, Alexander brings to the ticket loads and loads of experience, both in the executive branch and the legislative branch. In his speech, he went after the administration for their legislative agenda, calling all of it "a distraction, a bunch of far left pipe dreams". He's a surprising pick, and doesn't add much to the ticket electorally, but most observers see Alexander as someone who would be a strong Vice President.

The Republican National Convention went better than the Democratic one. Heavily critical of the administration, they jabbed the administrations attempts at accomplishments, and championed a more moderate vision for healthcare reform. As soon as Governor Owens spoke, he shed the image of a gaffe machine quickly, with a speech that knocked out the park wonkish details about the economy, healthcare, entitlements, and the infrastructure system. Talk radio wasn't especially happy about the speech, but overall, the convention strongly boosted Owens chances.

Leading up to the debates, Edwards started to sink more and more. The economy continually tanking, both the Housing and the Automotive industry falling apart. The Edwards administration is keen on passing a Wall Street Bailout, against the wishes of several key Democrats. Still, the President is leveraging his link to several Republican moderates to pass the key piece of legislation. Owens and Alexander both support a bailout of Wall Street. Edwards has also tacked a more populist route to go even further, pushing a plan to bailout all people who were hurt in the Housing crisis, proposing the government take up all of their bad debt. Owens has criticized the plan as a "desperate attempt to gain points" and "completely unrealistic and would do significant harm to the national debt"


Congressman Rob Andrews continues to be one of the worst candidates in New Jersey history, and the worst candidate of the 2008 field. CREW has endorsed Former Congressman Dick Zimmer for the Senate seat in New Jersey, as well as several Democratic publications in the state of New Jersey. Ethical questions continue to pile on the Congressman, including a misuse of campaign funds for trips to Scotland and Los Angeles. Democrats are bailing on his candidacy because of his record - voting to ban flag burning, voting to invade Iraq, and even signing Grover Norquist's Taxpayer Pledge. Consistently offending people of both sides, Zimmer has been winning the election by merely existing.

How long are you planning on continuing this on for?

It's never consistent, I usually quit these things in the middle, but I hope 2016 Presidential ends it, hopefully with a little epilogue.

October 2008 - The debates proved to be a hard affair, both for President John Edwards and Senator Barack Obama. In the first debate and the VP debate, Owens and Alexander clobbered the team over their record and pushed their own ideas of a large scale infrastructure push, a moderate healthcare reform package, and a tax overhaul program, while knocking the President's idea to bailout every single person in debt thanks to the housing crisis. The President seemed tired and impatient, almost as if he wanted to get out. Obama seemed to ramble endlessly in a professerly way, while Alexanders answers were sharp.

Even when Edwards knocked Owens out in the second debate, the economy started to crater tremendously. After passing the Alexander amended Auto Bailout, Wall Street began to fall even harder. Even with his foreign policy successes, Edwards approval ratings cratered to their lowest level since before the primaries. Owens was right all along: the polling was the most volatile we've seen since the 80s. It looked like Owens and Alexander were headed to the White House, which turned our attention to Senate races...


When Mark Warner originally planned on running for Senate, I bet he couldn't imagine having another incredibly tough race. Against all other opponents, Warner led by 10 or more, even Former Governor Jim Gilmore and Senator George Allen. However, when incredibly popular Governor Tom Davis decided to run, the pot was shook up and we saw the most competitive race for Virginia Senate since, well, the last time Warner went up against Warner. The two have been within the margin of error the entire race, battling with eachothers records, and it looks as though they are equally matched. Many headlines are calling Mark Warner's campaign for Senate the best campaign of the year, but we will see whether the campaign can pull off a victory in a deeply Republican year.


Another strong Democratic campaign is that of Senator Mark Pryor, who has spent the year hard defending his seat against Former Governor Mike Huckabee. Still, at every point, he trails the Governor, even when he's outspending him 2-1, and running vigorously across the state. Voters have seen the economic crash and are looking to boot Mark Pryor as a result of the crash, deciding to change horses after the first term.

After Wisconsin was called for Owens surprisingly earlier, things were basically over for the President. As expected, Edwards culled most of the undecideds in the end, but the economy basically sunk any chance Edwards had of being re-elected (and his approval numbers are only heading downward).

Senate races on the edge were largely pulled by Owens strong coat-tails. The biggest case of that was Tom Davis in Virginia, who was tied or within the margin of error with Mark Warner the entire race. He won by less than a percent, no doubt helped by the Owens ticket's significant margin in the state. Similar South Dakota, where Kristi Noem pulled ahead of Tim Johnson, even as the Johnson campaign had pulled to a lead in the last week of polling.

In the run-off for Lousiana Senator, Mary Landrieu will be facing Congressman Rodney Alexander. Democrats were hoping to face John N. Kennedy for the seat, but with Alexander with the nomination, Democrats find it hard to believe that Landrieu can pull it out. Count this one as an extra seat for the Republicans. Owens is within range of having a Super Majority.

Great!!!

And Obama probably killed his chances in 2012 by becoming associated with Edwards.

Eh

Essentially a flip from RL - interested to see what Republicans do with the Presidency and filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

God damn Mark Warner: you choked the Senate seat away.....AGAIN.

In the weeks leading to the run-off, many expected Congressman Rodney Alexander to run away with the election. What actually happened was Mary Landrieu ran the strongest campaign anyone could run in 4 weeks. She criticized Alexanders party switch, knocked his connections to lobbyists and Governor Jindal, and made a strong case for her staying in the Senate due to her increasing seniority and stances on Lousiana's energy future. In the first count, Mary Landrieu was actually ahead by 498 votes.


However, both candidates agreed to a recount, and that recount noticed a missing couple thousand votes and those votes put Congressman Rodney Alexander ahead by 112.


The Senator will be challenging the result all the way to the Lousiana Supreme Court, where it looks the winner of the election will not be inaugurated in time, and as a result, the seat will remain vacant until a winner is declared.

In the mists of the Economic Crash, President Edwards has signed the auto bailout and the Wall Street bailout, both measures that the President claims will help to fix the economy. Economic Conservatives in the Republican Party fears these measures only prop up a failing business that is destined to fail, but Governor Owens and Senator Alexander, moving to the White House, both approve of these measures and are willing to go along with them. Governor Owens has produced a plan to get the economy off the ground using tax credits and infrastructure spending, which has some members of both parties going after it.

The President's strong majorities in the Senate allowed for him to have a large leeway with his nominees. However, two candidates managed to offend the large segment of Republican moderates: Former Senator Phil Gramm for Treasury Secretary and Wall Streeter and GOP insider Jesse Eisenberg for Commerce Secretary. When Gramm was nominated, the New York Times published an article, pointing Gramm's actions in the Senate and the actions of wall street as a major cause for the recession. This caused a firestorm in the Senate, and many people putting pressure on their Senators to defeat Gramm and Eisenberg. The first Republican Senator to stand against the nominee was Hawaii Senator Linda Lingle, who called on the President to withdraw the nominees and pick two people that would "do right by the American people". Following her lead was Senators Weld, Zimmer, Kean, Cannon, and Davis. The dominoes fell, and after that the nomination looked impossible, and both candidates were withdrawn.

Besides those embarrassing defeats, the Presidents nominations went through swiftly and quietly. His approvals took a small hit due to the process, but Americans largely looked upon the President favorably.


Utah Senator Chris Cannon's record has been one of deep bipartisanship and moderation. Writing an entitlement reform bill with Ron Wyden, voting for the new War on Poverty, and supporting an active reform of the immigration system, and has angered his fellow Republicans. He only beats his biggest opponent, Businessman Tim Bridgewater, by 18 points, and trails the anti-Cannon vote by 12. Utah is so Republican that the Democrats don't have much of a shot at winning, but Cannon is going to have trouble holding his seat.

Virginia Democratic Primary
39% Fmr. Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine
21% Delegate Brian Moran
4% Attorney Tom Perriello

Virginia General Election Match-Ups
46% A.G. Bob McDonnell v. 40% Fmr. Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine
47% A.G. Bob McDonnell v. 38% Brian Moran
45% A.G. Bob McDonnell v. 33% Tom Perriello

February 2009 - Democrats are looking at the trends in Virginia very positively, and yet the most well known candidate and the one leading the Democratic primary is failed candidate Tim Kaine, who ran and lost the Virginia Gubernatorial race to now-Senator Tom Davis. Many are questioning Kaine's ability to win a general election, and in the primary he faces competition from Brian Moran and little known attorney Tom Perriello. Either way, Democrats trail popular Attorney General Bob McDonnell by varying margins.

The big news today is Governor Bill Bolling, who announced he would not seek the Governors spot. He faced pressure from Republicans wanting to put Bob McDonnell, perceived to be more conservative and a better candidate, in. While he leads now, the curse of the Presidency may haunt Virginia.


Republican Primary
49% U.S. Attorney Chris Christie
28% Mayor Steve Lonegan
4% City Councilor Bob Schroeder
3% Assemblyman Rick Merkt

General Election Match-Ups
40% Governor Jon Corzine v. 47% U.S. Attorney Chris Christie
42% Governor Jon Corzine v. 44% Mayor Steve Lonegan

February 2009 - Governor Jon Corzine is one of the most unpopular Governors in the country. Despite that, he runs unopposed in the Democratic Primary due to his massive money advantage. He may be a Governor going down in November when you look at his poll numbers. He trails both Attorney Chris Christie and Mayor Steve Lonegan. Other candidates are irrelevant due to their polling numbers and their ability to get them up, so basically the race between Lonegan and Christie will determine who gets to be Governor. Should this race be decided in favor of the Republicans, New Jersey will be the only state with two Republican Senators and a Republican Governor that voted for the Democratic Presidential candidate in the last two elections.

March 2009 - After a damaging rejection of Phil Gramm for Treasury Secretary, the Owens administration decided to ease up. In a bipartisan move, the administration kept Democratic Commerce Secretary Jim Johnson on for another year. However, the Republican President decided to off current Treasury Secretary Roger Altman in favor of Former Bush Administrator Glenn Hubbard. Hubbard, with his academic credentials, is considered a far less controversial nominee, and is expected to easily pass the Senate.

The Hubbard hearings go well, and in spite of some Republicans backing away from him due to the recent actions of the administration, he is approved by a vote of 81-18, with 3 Republicans and 15 Democrats voting against him.

Meanwhile, the administration has voiced the need for economic stimulus. The proposal currently being pushed for the administration by Senators Grassley and McConnell, with the help of Vice President Alexander. The bill calls for increased infrastructure spending, tax credits for small businesses, and money for works projects in each district. Democrats are opposing the bill, calling it piecemeal and "a waste of money that doesn't get results we need". Meanwhile, Republicans are facing fallout for their keeping of Johnson, and the conservative wing of the party, with Senators Sessions, Martinez, Brownback, Vitter, and Rehberg opposing the bill for going too far on the spending side. The President needs a strong coalition, and its looking more and more difficult to see one.

The same month that Social Security reform was rejected on the floor of the Senate by an overwhelming margin. Republican moderates, a new large number in the Senate, have voted with a large portion of Democrats to reject The Cannon-Bowles Social Security Reform Act. The bill proved to be one of the most unpopular pieces of legislation ever, and more and more Senators revoked their previous support of the bill. The bill was used by Democrats to attack Republican opponents, but noting the help of Senator Bowles, the attack lacked potency. More Republicans than Democrats voted for the bill, but Democrats voted for it in large block - Senators Carper, Bowles, Bayh, Carson, Lieberman, Wyden, and Nelson backed the legislation, along with some 30 Republicans.


Evan Bayh's approval rating has dropped dramatically over his vote for Social Security Reform, causing him to fall to a potential primary challenge. He leads by 21, but the signs aren't good for him - he's already under 50 in a Democratic Primary. Should he fall further, and with campaigns that's likely, and we could see him beat by Andre Carson, a freshman congressman.  Should Carson win the primary, it looks like the seat is a surefire loss for the Democrats in most cases.

Boy this looks awfully familiar...

shh... don't tell anyone