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General Politics => International General Discussion => Topic started by: Buh her emails! on March 14, 2014, 04:05:27 pm



Title: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: Buh her emails! on March 14, 2014, 04:05:27 pm
I hope not...


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: Paul Kemp on March 14, 2014, 04:06:57 pm
Ever?


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on March 14, 2014, 04:07:13 pm
Even if we went to war with Russia, its not guaranteed that it would escalate into a world war.


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on March 14, 2014, 04:33:03 pm
Even if we went to war with Russia, its not guaranteed that it would escalate into a world war.

Realistically, the only way we could go to war with Russia would be under an international coalition involving virtually every other country in the world minus Russia.


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: Mangez des pommes ! on March 14, 2014, 04:35:51 pm
If it does, it certainly won't break out over some Black Sea peninsula nobody actually cares about.


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat on March 14, 2014, 04:37:28 pm
I feel like it says something about the American understanding of modern history that a thread about World War III is was in the US General board.


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: AggregateDemand on March 14, 2014, 04:39:59 pm
Not as long as global economic integration is still functioning. World War in this age would cripple the entire G20.


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: NewYorkExpress on March 14, 2014, 04:54:28 pm
Not as long as global economic integration is still functioning. World War in this age would cripple the entire G20.

Not everyone chooses sides (even in a "World War")

Mexico's got enough of it's own internal problems to really be bothered choosing a side.
The EU literally can't take a side, representing all of Europe (although it probably would side with us if it could)
There's really no valid reason for Indonesia to be involved at all (unless China the war)
Same with Saudi Arabia, who still has this little thing called Islamic Extremism to deal with at home.

Even if we went to war with Russia, its not guaranteed that it would escalate into a world war.

Realistically, the only way we could go to war with Russia would be under an international coalition involving virtually every other country in the world minus Russia.

Um, I'm pretty certain that China at the minimum would back Russia up (and maybe North Korea , their leadership seems to love chaos)


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia on March 14, 2014, 05:35:08 pm
No


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on March 14, 2014, 05:40:22 pm
It will come, but not over Crimea. Hopefully it will be the class war.


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: morgieb on March 14, 2014, 05:48:50 pm
Not over f**king Crimea.


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: Mangez des pommes ! on March 14, 2014, 05:49:23 pm
It will come, but not over Crimea. Hopefully it will be the class war.

Do you ever get tired of that shtick?


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: Potatoe on March 14, 2014, 05:55:36 pm
It will come, but not over Crimea. Hopefully it will be the class war.

Do you ever get tired of that shtick?
He probably has gotten tired of it, but he might be under contract, and has to fill a Sage Quota every week or something like that.


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: ag on March 14, 2014, 06:19:17 pm
It will not happen this year: the West will give Ukraine to the Russians. But after this the probability of a WWIII within the next, say, 5 years will skyrocket.


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: bedstuy on March 14, 2014, 06:41:09 pm
It already happened.  Ever heard of the Cold War?


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: Peter the Lefty on March 14, 2014, 06:43:43 pm
Possibly.  If Putin decides to push further into Russian-speaking Ukraine, I fear the worst.  If it doesn't lead to a war (and Putin manages to acquire more territory), China might be emboldened to take military action next time its border disputes with Japan, the Philippines, or India heat up.  I don't think Xi would be stupid enough to take such a move, thank God, but that's the second-likeliest scenario for WWIII I see happening after a Russian invasion of Eastern Ukraine (which, of course, would itself be necessary for the China option even to be remotely possible).



Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: Serenity Now on March 14, 2014, 06:51:44 pm
Generally: for it not to happen it would have to never happen forever..  Still, might as well hope it does not.

With regards to the Crimea: nah.


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: Corbyn is a Strasserist on March 14, 2014, 07:03:52 pm
If Putin is stupid enough to push on into a NATO nation one of these years, it just might. Otherwise, not likely.


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on March 14, 2014, 07:09:10 pm
If there is a World War III, why would Russia or China start it? Based on the recent track records of aggression it would almost certainly be the US to kick it off.


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: King on March 14, 2014, 07:38:22 pm
I think we're done with political world wars.  There's too many vested global economic interests to make wars popular.  Nationalism is dead, relatively speaking.

Even if there is a war in Ukraine, I think it will be more like Korea or Vietnam, where Crimea forms a state, Russia sponsors their new military, and USA sponsors Kiev's military, and we go to war with Russia informally where everybody knows where the weapons and intelligence are coming from on both sides but the actual war is really Ukraine vs Crimea.  Still, I'm not expecting any actual conflict out of the Ukraine situation.

In my opinion, the only chance for a World War 3 anytime in the future will be under dire environmental circumstances:  A region of the world with a strong military has an Africa syndrome where a long-term drought hits or all the oil dries up in a state.  The government of that state decides the only remaining course of action to avoid national extinction is to conquer others' natural resources.



Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: TDAS04 on March 14, 2014, 07:40:48 pm
Of course not.


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: MaxQue on March 14, 2014, 09:27:03 pm
Yes. At a point, the West won't have any choice, but to defend itself against USPR (Union of Soviet Putinist Republics)


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: True Federalist on March 14, 2014, 09:29:45 pm
Even if we went to war with Russia, its not guaranteed that it would escalate into a world war.

Realistically, the only way we could go to war with Russia would be under an international coalition involving virtually every other country in the world minus Russia.

Um, I'm pretty certain that China at the minimum would back Russia up (and maybe North Korea , their leadership seems to love chaos)

Why wouldn't China consider the opportunity to reclaim the lands Russia took from her in the 19th century?


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: Landslide Andy on March 14, 2014, 11:06:39 pm
If there is a World War III, why would Russia or China start it? Based on the recent track records of aggression it would almost certainly be the US to kick it off.

(Image Link)


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: Tender Branson on March 15, 2014, 08:58:30 am
Nope, the Anschluss tomorrow will be quite smooth and things will settle down after that.


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: Austere Religious Scholar on March 15, 2014, 11:52:47 am

I see, you are already trying to look less ridiculous by distancing yourself from previous claims of the doom being near.


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on March 15, 2014, 01:35:09 pm
See Bacon King's signature :P.


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald on March 15, 2014, 05:36:23 pm
Only when Frau Merkel sends in the tanks to Greece.


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: bullmoose88 on March 15, 2014, 08:40:36 pm
Yes and no.  Specially to this question, probably no.  But generally, given that the chance is non-zero, over enough time it becomes pretty likely.


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: Cory on March 15, 2014, 09:52:55 pm
It already happened.  Ever heard of the Cold War?

I to subscribe to this school of thought.


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: Redalgo on March 19, 2014, 10:47:21 am
It already happened.  Ever heard of the Cold War?

Yeah, this is basically what I was going to post here. There were stand-offs on most continents, proxy wars fought in many countries, governments toppled, shifting networks of allies / satellites established, and so on. Fear of nuclear warfare simply forced a new style of global conflict that was less direct than what was experienced during the first two world wars.


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: Mangez des pommes ! on March 19, 2014, 03:11:45 pm
The Cold War was not a real war and people who claim so should be lucky they're wrong.


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: morgieb on March 19, 2014, 04:08:25 pm
The Cold War was not a real war and people who claim so should be lucky they're wrong.
Yes. If it was a real war, we wouldn't be able to claim that it was a real war.


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: ag on March 19, 2014, 06:49:09 pm

I see, you are already trying to look less ridiculous by distancing yourself from previous claims of the doom being near.

Oh, no. I was pretty much convinced from the beginning that Ukraine would be sold. This is EXACTLY why I am convinced that the doom is near.

Had the US actually followed its obligations, I would have been A LOT more comfortable saying there will be no war.


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: Joshgreen on March 20, 2014, 10:34:26 am
Of course...

...eventually.

Not sure if in my lifetime, but given human proclivity to violence over reason, it's obviously more likely than not.


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: True Federalist on March 20, 2014, 11:36:07 am
Nor is it certain the next world war will be called World War III.  After all, arguably World Wars I and II were the fourth and fifth world wars.  (The first being the Seven Years War/French and Indian War/Third Carnatic War, the second being the American Revolutionary War, and the third being the Coalition Wars of the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic periods treated as one long war.)


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: bedstuy on March 20, 2014, 12:37:37 pm
The Cold War was not a real war and people who claim so should be lucky they're wrong.
Yes. If it was a real war, we wouldn't be able to claim that it was a real war.

It depends on how you look at it.  The Cold War was actively fought by proxies for the most part.  But, that doesn't make it less of a war.  Between the Chinese Civil War, the Korean War, the Vietnam/Indochinese War, the Yom Kippur War, the various Latin American wars, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, there was good deal of war going on around the world between two major alliances. 


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 22, 2014, 01:41:39 am
Nor is it certain the next world war will be called World War III.  After all, arguably World Wars I and II were the fourth and fifth world wars.  (The first being the Seven Years War/French and Indian War/Third Carnatic War, the second being the American Revolutionary War, and the third being the Coalition Wars of the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic periods treated as one long war.)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_the_Spanish_Succession


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on March 22, 2014, 07:31:24 am
Nor is it certain the next world war will be called World War III.  After all, arguably World Wars I and II were the fourth and fifth world wars.  (The first being the Seven Years War/French and Indian War/Third Carnatic War, the second being the American Revolutionary War, and the third being the Coalition Wars of the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic periods treated as one long war.)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_the_Spanish_Succession


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_the_Austrian_Succession


Title: Re: Will WW3 happen?
Post by: True Federalist on March 22, 2014, 07:49:46 am
Nor is it certain the next world war will be called World War III.  After all, arguably World Wars I and II were the fourth and fifth world wars.  (The first being the Seven Years War/French and Indian War/Third Carnatic War, the second being the American Revolutionary War, and the third being the Coalition Wars of the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic periods treated as one long war.)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_the_Spanish_Succession


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_the_Austrian_Succession

A case can be made for the latter, but while the first had some fighting in the overseas colonies, it didn't involve any non-European powers.