Talk Elections

Article. (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/colorado-senate-close-hickenlooper-grows-lead.html)

Udall- 42%
Gardner- 40%

I have to say, I'm not really worried about this one.

Low 40s is the danger zone, but we'll see what happens over the summer.

Polls will tighten more later this summer.  Owen Hill drops out of race and supports Gardner.

http://gazette.com/owen-hill-ends-u.s.-senate-run-will-back-cory-gardner/article/1516639

Being an optimist versus being a realist I see.

Neither am I consiering how far Hick is ahead. I think he helps pull Udall across the finish line.

Gubernatorial coattails are largely a myth. Just look at Arkansas in 2010.

As I suspected the minute Gardner entered, this is now a toss up.

Great news!

Yeah, Rasmussen was SO wrong.

Rasmussen is a great of example of a pollster that is excellent when they tell someone what they want to hear, and irrelevant and horrible when they don't.

Of course you automatically discount any poll that doesn't show a Democrat leading even if it's from PPP.

Judging by how Hickenlooper is doing so much better than Udall in the same poll, I'm guessing Udall's numbers are lower because A) He's less well known (Therefore he's basically Generic D) and B) Is more tied to the national mood (And Obama).


That said, I'm still not worried. Udall is a perfect fit for Colorado and I'm confident he wins.

I'm pretty confident too, there's just too much at stake and too much going for us not to win. If we don't we could be f[inks]ed coming into 2016. Either way, were either going to make what we have work or were going to work on it.

The all-mail voting system Colorado is moving to virtually guarantees a Udall win.

Dems usually underpoll in Colorado by 5-7 points, vote by mail helps Udall, if Bennett won in 2010 Udall wins, Cory Gardner is a weak candidate. Likely D.

Evidence? The only polls I discount are ones from firms with a horrible or no track record, or if there are several other reputable polls which show it to be an outlier.

You mean a perfect fit for New York or some far left state.

Yeah, it's prone to fraud and people voting more than once.

Oh I'm sorry let me correct myself.


Udall is a perfect fit for the RELEVANT part of Colorado.

Boulder?

The part that actually holds voting sway, IE, not the rural white part.

That said, I compare this race to Alaska; incumbent Democrats who are perfect fits for their states but whose environment still makes them seem vulnerable. Udall and Begich are both gonna win in the end.

This race must already be over if fraud is already being claimed

The big question is why this is this close at this point? Udall hasn't really done much wrong from what I've seen, and some things right (like standing against the administration on NSA stuff).

I have a feeling there's a few thing at play here, 18% undecideds, being early in the campaign, and the normal underpolling of latinos.

If Udall is down 3-4% going into the election, I'll be worried, otherwise, I think he'll be fine.

Dems always underpoll early-on in Colorado, bro.

No need to condescend, and not sure that's always the case (see: Hickenlooper).

Like I said up the thread, Udall's policies aren't as publicized as Hickenlooper's. Hick might be more controversial, but that just means people know who he is and what he stands for. Also, effects from his policies are felt more immediately in Colorado. Udall, however, is less publicized and therefore less known.

Off the top of my head, the main thing that sets Udall apart from Generic Democrat in my mind is his anti-NSA stance. Like you said, this is a good policy for a Western state. However, I don't think most people in Colorado pay enough attention to know that. Right now, Udall is basically "Generic Democratic Senator" and his opponents are "Somebody Else".

Udall's best move would be to blitz the airwaves with positive bios before AFP does too much damage. Unlike Hagan in North Carolina, Udall knows who his opponent will be and should also prepare some negative ads as well.

I'm guessing you'd say that about any senator with a D next to their name

So if a GOP candidate ran in California, he would be too far right then? Sure if you want to use that logic.

Colorado does not have an R+10 PVI.

New Poll: Colorado Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-03-16 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=8220140316108)

Summary: D: 42%, R: 40%, U: 17%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/colorado-senate-close-hickenlooper-grows-lead.html)