Talk Elections

These were the five cities in California that had the biggest swings from 2008-2012.

BIGGEST DEMOCRATIC SWINGS
1. Vernon
County: Los Angeles
Population (2010): 112
Demographics: 88.39% White, 42.86% Hispanic/Latino, 6.25% Other Races, 3.57% Black, 1.79% Asian
2008: John McCain (R) 50.00% — Barack Obama (D) 36.11% = R+ 13.89
2012: Barack Obama (D) 48.72% — Mitt Romney (R) 43.59% = D+ 05.13
SWING: D+ 19.02
2. Rosemead
County: Los Angeles
Population (2010): 53,764
Demographics: 60.67% Asian, 33.75% Hispanic/Latino, 21.11% White, 14.77% Other Races, 2.15% Biracial/Multiracial
2008: Barack Obama (D) 67.53% — John McCain (R) 30.67% = D+ 36.86
2012: Barack Obama (D) 76.10% — Mitt Romney (R) 22.23% = D+ 53.87
SWING: D+ 17.02
3. Westminster
County: Orange
Population (2010): 89,701
Demographics: 47.49% Asian, 35.72% White, 23.61% Hispanic/Latino, 11.40% Other Races, 3.60% Biracial/Multiracial
2008: John McCain (R) 56.19% — Barack Obama (D) 42.17% = R+ 14.02
2012: Barack Obama (D) 50.11% — Mitt Romney (R) 47.69% = D+ 02.42
SWING: D+ 16.44
4. Mendota
County: Fresno
Population (2010): 11,014
Demographics: 96.63% Hispanic/Latino, 52.87% White, 40.54% Other Races, 3.44% Biracial/Multiracial, 1.39% Native American/Alaskan Native
2008: Barack Obama (D) 75.90% — John McCain (R) 22.77% = D+ 53.13
2012: Barack Obama (D) 83.79% — Mitt Romney (R) 12.42% = D+ 73.92
SWING: D+ 16.02
5. Parlier
County: Fresno
Population (2010): 14,494
Demographics: 97.54% Hispanic/Latino, 50.03% White, 44.07% Other Races, 3.48% Biracial/Multiracial, 1.24% Native American/Alaskan Native
2008: Barack Obama (D) 79.22% — John McCain (R) 19.76% = D+ 59.46
2012: Barack Obama (D) 86.34% — Mitt Romney (R) 12.42% = D+ 73.92
SWING: D+ 14.46

BIGGEST REPUBLICAN SWINGS
1. Ross
County: Marin
Population (2010): 2,415
Demographics: 93.79% White, 3.89% Hispanic/Latino, 3.11% Biracial/Multiracial, 1.86% Asian
2008: Barack Obama (D) 71.22% — John McCain (R) 27.75% = D+ 43.47
2012: Barack Obama (D) 57.07% — Mitt Romney (R) 41.19% = D+ 15.88
SWING: R+ 27.59
2. Belvedere
County: Marin
Population (2010): 2,086
Demographics: 93.81% White, 3.48% Hispanic/Latino, 2.80% Asian, 2.03% Biracial/Multiracial
2008: Barack Obama (D) 65.81% — John McCain (R) 32.73% = D+ 33.08
2012: Barack Obama (D) 54.98% — Mitt Romney (R) 43.76% = D+ 11.22
SWING: R+ 21.86
3. Hillsborough
County: San Mateo
Population (2010): 10,825
Demographics: 66.31% White, 28.12% Asian, 3.90% Biracial/Multiracial, 3.45% Hispanic/Latino, 1.01% Other Races
2008: Barack Obama (D) 56.30% — John McCain (R) 42.54% = D+ 13.76
2012: Mitt Romney (R) 53.16% — Barack Obama (D) 45.47% = R+ 07.69
SWING: R+ 21.45
4. Atherton
County: San Mateo
Population (2010): 6,914
Demographics: 80.49% White, 13.18% Asian, 3.88% Hispanic/Latino, 3.12% Biracial/Multiracial, 1.37% Other Races, 1.08% Black/African American
2008: Barack Obama (D) 57.59% — John McCain (R) 41.15% = D+ 16.44
2012: Mitt Romney (R) 51.54% — Barack Obama (D) 46.64% = R+ 04.90
SWING: R+ 21.34
5. Del Mar
County: San Diego
Population (2010): 4,161
Demographics: 94.02% White, 4.21% Hispanic/Latino, 2.84% Asian, 2.04% Biracial/Multiracial
2008: Barack Obama (D) 63.51% — John McCain (R) 34.87% = D+ 28.64
2012: Barack Obama (D) 53.21% — Mitt Romney (R) 45.03% = D+ 08.18
SWING: R+ 20.46

Are those numbers for Vernon correct? There's over 10% "other" in both elections.

Probably. It's not even really a city, just an industrial park.

I heard Vernon was very, very corrupt in the last decade, but they started turning over a new leaf in the current decade. The 2008 results were probably a sign of Republican corruption.

Also, why would so many towns near San Francisco swing to the far right?

Maybe Silicon Valley/financial types swinging to a "pro-business" candidate?

All four of them are very rich and heavily white; that is, demographically similar to Mitt Romney. Ignoring Vernon, you can also see that all four of the heaviest swings to Obama were from towns that are minority-heavy.

Atherton is where ultra-rich whites like Meg Whitman live. Naturally Romney did better there. It's the richest city in the country, with a median household income of $250k.
http://www.biggestuscities.com/demographics/us/income-per-household-by-city

It was 2008 that was the anomaly in these rich cities. 2012 was just a return to normalcy.

Meaning what? It has almost no voters so a large family or couple neighbors voting for a thrid party skews the entire result?

Yes.

I think the only people living there are city employees.

Obama's improvement among Vietnamese-Americans might at least partly explain Westminster.

It fully explains Westminster. In fact, it is because of these swings that we have an idea on how Vietnamese-Americans voted.